Search results for: universal events

Authors: Ming-Juei Chang, Hui-Ing Ma, Tsung-Hsueh Lu

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Introduction: Because of the advance of medical care (e.g., ventilation techniques and gastrostomy feeding), more and more children with CP can live to adulthood. However, little is known about the use of health care services from children to adults who have CP. The patterns of utilization of ambulatory care are heavily influenced by insurance coverage and primary care gatekeeper regulation. The purpose of this study was to examine patterns of ambulatory care utilization among individuals with CP in Taiwan, a country with universal coverage and no gatekeeper regulation. Methods: A representative sample of one million patients (about 1/23 of total population) covered by Taiwan’s National Health Insurance was used to analyze the ambulatory care utilization in individuals with CP. Data were analyzed by 3 different age groups (children, youth and adults) during 2000 to 2003. Participants were identified by the presence of CP diagnosis made by pediatricians or physicians of physical and rehabilitation medicine and stated at least three times in claims data. Results: Annual rates of outpatient physician visits were 31680 for children, 16492 for youth, and 28617 for adults with CP (per 1000 persons). Individuals with CP received over 50% of their outpatient care from hospital outpatient department. Higher use of specialist physician services was found in children (54.7%) than in the other two age groups (28.4% in youth and 18.8% in adults). Diseases of respiratory system were the most frequent diagnoses for visits in both children and youth with CP. Diseases of the circulatory system were the main reasons (24.3%) that adults with CP visited hospital outpatient care department or clinics. Conclusion: This study showed different patterns of ambulatory care utilization among different age groups. It appears that youth and adults with CP continue to have complex health issues and rely heavily on the health care system. Additional studies are needed to determine the factors which influence ambulatory care utilization among individuals with CP.

Keywords: cerebral palsy, health services, lifespan, universal coverage

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Authors: Amira Kaddour

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To curb the problem of liquidity in times of financial crises, two cases arise; the Bailout or Bailin, two opposite choices that elicit the analysis of their effect on moral hazard. This paper attempts to empirically analyze the effect of these two types of events on the behavior of investors. For this end, we use the Emerging Market Bonds Index (EMBI-JP Morgan), and its excess of return, to detect the change in the risk premia through a Markov switching model. The results showed the transition to two types of regime and an effect on moral hazard; Bailout is an incentive of moral hazard, Bailin effectiveness remains subject of credibility.

Keywords: Bailout, Bailin, Moral hazard, financial crisis, Markov switching

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Authors: Guebli Abdelkader, Reguieg Madani, Belkadi Adel, Sbaa Bouabdellah

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The identification of mechanical variables in the motor performance trajectory has a prominent role in improving skill performance, error-exceeding, it contributes seriously to solving some problems of learning and training. The study aims to highlight the indicators of motor performance for Paralympic athletes during the practicing sports between modelling and between excellence in motor performance, this by taking into account the distinction of athlete practicing with special behavioral skills for the Paralympic athletes. In the study, we relied on the analysis of some previous research of biomechanical performance indicators during some of the events sports (shooting activities in the Paralympic athletics, shooting skill in the wheelchair basketball). The results of the study highlight the distinction of disabled practitioners of sporting events identified in motor performance during practice, by overcoming some physics indicators in human movement, as a lower center of body weight, increase in offset distance, such resistance which requires them to redouble their efforts. However, the results of the study highlighted the strength of the correlation between biomechanical variables of motor performance and the digital level achievement similar to the other practitioners normal.

Keywords: sports, the disabled, motor performance, Paralympic

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Authors: Warda Ajaz

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This study uses the ‘Community Capitals Framework’ (CCF) to develop a community resilience index that can serve as a useful tool for measuring resilience of communities in diverse contexts and backgrounds. CCF is an important analytical tool to assess holistic community change. This framework identifies seven major types of community capitals: natural, cultural, human, social, political, financial and built, and claims that the communities that have been successful in supporting healthy sustainable community and economic development have paid attention to all these capitals. The framework, therefore, proposes to study the community development through identification of assets in these major capitals (stock), investment in these capitals (flow), and the interaction between these capitals. Capital based approaches have been extensively used to assess community resilience, especially in the context of natural disasters and extreme events. Therefore, this study identifies key indicators for estimating each of the seven capitals through an extensive literature review and then develops an index to calculate a community resilience score. The CCF-based community resilience index presents an innovative way of operationalizing the concept of community resilience and will contribute toward decision-relevant research regarding adaptation and mitigation of community vulnerabilities to climate change-induced, as well as other adverse events.

Keywords: adverse events, community capitals, community resilience, climate change, economic development, sustainability

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Authors: Ludmila Vucolova

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The thought is a process that underlies consciousness and cognition and understanding its origin and processes is a longstanding goal of many academic disciplines. By integrating over twenty novel ideas and hypotheses of this theoretical proposal, we can speculate that thought is an emergent property of coded neural events, translating the electro-chemical interactions of the body with its environment—the objects of sensory stimulation, X, and Y. The latter is a self- generated feedback entity, resulting from the arbitrary pattern of the motion of a body’s motor repertory (M). A culmination of these neural events gives rise to a thought: a state of identity between an observed object X and a symbol Y. It manifests as a “state of awareness” or “state of knowing” and forms our perception of the physical world. The values of the variables of a construct—X (object), S1 (sense for the perception of X), Y (object), S2 (sense for perception of Y), and M (motor repertory that produces Y)—will specify the particular conscious percept at any given time. The proposed principle of interaction between the elements of a construct (X, Y, S1, S2, M) is universal and applies for all modes of communication (normal, deaf, blind, deaf and blind people) and for various language systems (Chinese, Italian, English, etc.). The particular arrangement of modalities of each of the three modules S1 (5 of 5), S2 (1 of 3), and M (3 of 3) defines a specific mode of communication. This multifaceted paradigm demonstrates a predetermined pattern of relationships between X, Y, and M that passes from generation to generation. The presented analysis of a cognitive experience encompasses the key elements of embodied cognition theories and unequivocally accords with the scientific interpretation of cognition as the mental action or process of acquiring knowledge and understanding through thought, experience, and the senses, and cognition means thinking and awareness. By assembling the novel ideas presented in twelve sections, we can reveal that in the invisible “chaos”, there is an order, a structure with landmarks and principles of operations and mental processes (thoughts) are physical and have a biological basis. This innovative proposal explains the phenomenon of mental imagery; give the first insight into the relationship between mental states and brain states, and support the notion that mind and body are inseparably connected. The findings of this theoretical proposal are supported by the current scientific data and are substantiated by the records of the evolution of language and human intelligence.

Keywords: agent, awareness, cognitive, element, experience, feedback, first person, imagery, language, mental, motor, object, sensory, symbol, thought

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Authors: Puntarikorn Rungrattanakasin

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Objectives: To develop the trigger tool to warn about the risk of bleeding as an adverse event from warfarin drug usage during admission in Medical Wards of Chumphae Hospital. Methods: A retrospective study was performed by reviewing the medical records for the patients admitted between June 1st,2020- May 31st, 2021. ADEs were evaluated by Naranjo’s algorithm. The international normalized ratio (INR) and events of bleeding during admissions were collected. Statistical analyses, including Chi-square test and Reciever Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve for optimal INR threshold, were used for the study. Results: Among the 139 admissions, the INR range was found to vary between 0.86-14.91, there was a total of 15 bleeding events, out of which 9 were mild, and 6 were severe. The occurrence of bleeding started whenever the INR was greater than 2.5 and reached the statistical significance (p <0.05), which was in concordance with the ROC curve and yielded 100 % sensitivity and 60% specificity in the detection of a bleeding event. In this regard, the INR greater than 2.5 was considered to be an optimal threshold to alert promptly for bleeding tendency. Conclusions: The INR value of greater than 2.5 (>2.5) would be an appropriate trigger tool to warn of the risk of bleeding for patients taking warfarin in Chumphae Hospital.

Keywords: trigger tool, warfarin, risk of bleeding, medical wards

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Authors: Sara Patricia Ibarra-Zavaleta, Rabindranarth Romero-Lopez, Rosario Langrave, Annie Poulin, Gerald Corzo, Mathias Glaus, Ricardo Vega-Azamar, Norma Angelica Oropeza

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The progressive change in climatic conditions worldwide has increased frequency and severity of extreme hydrometeorological events (EHE). Mexico is an example; this has been affected by the presence of EHE leaving economic, social and environmental losses. The objective of this research was to apply a Canadian distributed hydrological model (DHM) to tropical conditions and to evaluate its capacity to predict flows in a basin in the central Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the DHM (once calibrated and validated) was used to calculate the theoretical hydraulic power and the performance to predict streamflow before the presence of an EHE. The results of the DHM show that the goodness of fit indicators between the observed and simulated flows in the calibration process (NSE=0.83, RSR=0.021 and BIAS=-4.3) and validation: temporal was assessed at two points: point one (NSE=0.78, RSR=0.113 and BIAS=0.054) and point two (NSE=0.825, RSR=0.103 and BIAS=0.063) are satisfactory. The DHM showed its applicability in tropical environments and its ability to characterize the rainfall-runoff relationship in the study area. This work can serve as a tool for identifying vulnerabilities before floods and for the rational and sustainable management of water resources.

Keywords: HYDROTEL, hydraulic power, extreme hydrometeorological events, streamflow

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Authors: Soo Hyung Kim

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Two different learning approaches were suggested: focusing on factual knowledge or focusing on the embedded meaning in the statements. Each way of learning has positive effects on different question categories, where factual knowledge helps more with simple fact questions, and searching for meaning in given information helps learn causal relationship and the embedded meaning. To test this belief, two groups of learners (12 male and 39 female adults aged 18-37) watched a ten-minute long Youtube video about various factual events of American history, their meaning, and the causal relations of the events. The fact group was asked to focus on factual knowledge in the video, and the meaning group was asked to focus on the embedded meaning in the video. After watching the video, both groups took multiple-choice questions, which consisted of 10 questions asking the factual knowledge addressed in the video and 10 questions asking embedded meaning in the video, such as the causal relationship between historical events and the significance of the event. From ANCOVA analysis, it was found that the factual knowledge showed higher performance on the factual questions than the meaning group, although there was no group difference on the questions about the meaning between the two groups. The finding suggests that teacher instruction plays an important role in learners constructing a different type of knowledge in online learning.

Keywords: factual knowledge, instruction, meaning-based knowledge, online learning

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Authors: Hidayah bt Rahmalan, Marhazli Kipli, Muhammad Suffian Sikandar Ghani, Maisarah Abu, Muhammad Faisal Ashaari, Norlizam Md Sukiban

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This study presents an example of activity management system for e-Masjid implementing elements of usability and sociability. It is expected to resolve the shortcomings of the most e-Masjid that provide lot of activities to their community. However, the data on handling a lot of activities or events in which involve a lot of people will be difficult to manipulate. Thus, this paper presents the usability and sociability element on an activity management system that not only eases the job for the user but being practical for future when the community join any events. For the time being, this activity management system was only applied for Sayyidina Abu Bakar Mosque in Utem, Malacca.

Keywords: e-masjid, usability, sociability, activity management system

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Authors: Amy Halseth, Kevin Shan, Kye Gilder, John Buse

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The study assessed the effect of prolonged-release naltrexone 32 mg/bupropion 360 mg (NB) on cardiovascular (CV) events in overweight/obese participants at elevated CV risk. Participants must lose ≥ 2% body weight at 16 wks, without a sustained increase in blood pressure, to continue drug. The study was terminated early after second interim analysis with 50% of all CV events. Data on CV endpoints has been published. Current analyses focus on weight change. Intent-to-treat (ITT) population (placebo [PBO] N=4450, NB N=4455) was 54.5% female, 83.5% white, mean age 61 yrs, mean BMI 37.3 kg/m2; 85.2% had type 2 diabetes, 32.1% had CV disease, 17.4% had both. At 52 wks, ITT-LOCF analysis showed greater least squares mean percent change in weight (LSM%ΔBW) with NB (-3.1%; 95% CI -4.8, -1.4) vs PBO (-0.3%; 95% CI -1.9, 1.4). Both groups demonstrated greater weight loss while on-treatment (NB [-7.3%], PBO [-3.9%]). Odds ratios of 5% and 10% weight loss were 3.3 and 4.1 (ITT-LOCF), respectively, in NB over PBO. At 104 wks, on-treatment LSM%ΔBW was -6.3% with NB (n=1137) vs -3.5% with PBO (n=741). Major reasons for NB withdrawal were adverse events (AE, 29%) and patient decision (21%), with GI disorders being the most common. Weight loss with NB in this study, in an older population predominantly with diabetes and elevated CV risk, was somewhat lower than that observed in overweight/obese participants without diabetes and similar to participants with diabetes in Phase 3 studies.

Keywords: contrave, mysimba, obesity, pharmacotherapy, weight loss

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Authors: Tao Zhang

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As the competition of all kinds of festival events becomes more and more fierce, more and more event organizers try to design a blended festivalscape by integrating multifaceted environmental cues in order to raise the service quality of festival events and then raise visitors’ satisfaction. As the main type of festival events, food festivals are popular in all over the world. The organizers’ of food festivals also try to mix food with multifaceted environmental cues (e.g., music, stage, light, dance) to design a blended festivalscape. However, until now little studies explore the environmental cues of food festivals and their relationship with visitors’ satisfaction. Therefore, the aim of this study is to ascertain the environmental cues of food festival and their relationship with visitors’ satisfaction by using the blended festivalscape theory. Using convenient sampling method, this study investigated 1,000 food festival visitors in Macau. Factor analysis showed there are mainly six environmental cues (i.e., food, atmosphere, program, staff, facility, and information). All six environmental cues are positively related with visitors’ satisfaction, while the most influential factors are food, atmosphere, and program. This study showed that festival event organizers’ should focus on the topic of their festival event, build festival atmosphere, and create interesting programs in order to design a blended festivalscape and then raise visitors’ satisfaction.

Keywords: environmental cue, event, festival, satisfaction

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Authors: Oktay Cinar

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The aim of this study is to investigate the acquisition of Overt Pronoun Constraint (OPC) by adult Korean L2 Turkish speakers in order to find out how constraints regulating the syntax of null and overt subjects are acquired. OPC is claimed to be a universal feature of all null subject languages restricting the co-indexation between overt embedded pronoun and quantified or wh-question antecedents. However, there is no such restriction when the embedded subject is null or the antecedent is a referential subject. Considered as a principle of Universal Grammar (UG), OPC knowledge of L2 speakers has been widely tested with different language pairs. In the light of previous studies on OPC, it can be argued that L2 learners display early sensitivity to OPC constraints during their interlanguage grammar development. Concerning this, the co-indexation between overt embedded pronoun o (third person pronoun) and referential matrix subject is claimed to be controversial in Turkish, which poses problems with the universality of OPC. However, the current study argues against this claim by providing evidence from advanced Korean speakers that OPC is universal to all null subject languages and OPC knowledge can be accessed with direct access to UG. In other words, the performances of adult Korean speakers on the syntax of null and overt subjects are tested to support this claim. In order to test this, OPC task is used. 15 advanced speakers and a control group of adult native Turkish participants are instructed to determine the co-reference relationship between the subject of embedded clause, either overt pronominal o or null, and the subject of the matrix clause, either quantified pronoun and wh-question or referential antecedent. They are asked to select the interpretation of the embedded subject, either as the same person as in the matrix subject or another person who is not the same person in the matrix subject. These relations are represented with four conditions, and each condition has four questions (16 questions in total). The results claim that both control group and Korean L2 Turkish speakers display sensitivity to all constraints that OPC has, which suggests that OPC works in Turkish as well.

Keywords: adult Korean speakers, binding theory, generative second language acquisition, overt pronoun constraint

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Authors: Pawan Kumar, Dhananjoy Shaw, Manoj Kumar Rathi

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Purpose of the study were to compare between (a) frequencies among the four quartiles of percentile norms of autonomic variables from power events and (b) frequencies among the four quartiles percentile norms of autonomic variables from aerobic events of Indian sportspersons withdrawn from competitive games and sports in regard to number of samples falling in each quartile. The study was conducted on 430 males of 30 to 35 years of age. Based on the nature of game/sports the retired sportspersons were classified into power events (throwers, judo players, wrestlers, short distance swimmers, cricket fast bowlers and power lifters) and aerobic events (long distance runners, long distance swimmers, water polo players). Date was collected using ECG polygraphs. Data were processed and extracted using frequency domain analysis and time domain analysis. Collected data were computed with frequency, percentage of each quartile and finally the frequencies were compared with the chi square analysis. The finding pertaining to norm reference comparison of frequencies among the four quartiles of Indian sportspersons withdrawn from competitive games and sports from (a) power events suggests that frequency distribution in four quartile namely Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 are significantly different at .05 level in regard to variables namely, SDNN, Total Power (Absolute Power), HF (Absolute Power), LF (Normalized Power), HF (Normalized Power), LF/HF ratio, deep breathing test, expiratory respiratory ratio, valsalva manoeuvre, hand grip test, cold pressor test and lying to standing test, whereas, insignificantly different at .05 level in regard to variables namely, SDSD, RMSSD, SDANN, NN50 Count, pNN50 Count, LF (Absolute Power) and 30: 15 Ratio (b) aerobic events suggests that frequency distribution in four quartile are significantly different at .05 level in regard to variables namely, SDNN, LF (Normalized Power), HF (Normalized Power), LF/HF ratio, deep breathing test, expiratory respiratory ratio, hand grip test, cold pressor test, lying to standing test and 30: 15 ratio, whereas, insignificantly different at .05 level in regard to variables namely, SDSD, RMSSD. SDANN, NN50 count, pNN50 count, Total Power (Absolute Power), LF(Absolute Power) HF(Absolute Power), and valsalva manoeuvre. The study concluded that comparison of frequencies among the four quartiles of Indian retired sportspersons from power events and aerobic events are different in four quartiles in regard to selected autonomic functions, hence the developed percentile norms are not homogenously distributed across the percentile scale; hence strengthen the percentage distribution towards normal distribution.

Keywords: power, aerobic, absolute power, normalized power

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Authors: Luke McGowan, David Pickernell, Martini Battisti

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In this paper, Adversity Triggers were explored through the lens of Organisational Resilience. Adversity Triggers are contextualized by temporal factors, thus, naturally aligning to Resilience literature. Resilience has been chosen as the theoretical framework as risk management approaches are often not geared towards providing meaningful responses to high-impact, low-probability events. Adversity Triggers and Organisational Resilience both consider temporal factors which enabled investigation of each phase of recovery. A systematic literature was employed to assess previous literature and define further areas of research. The systematic literature review method was chosen to catalogue and identify gaps in current literature.

Keywords: adversity triggers, crisis, extreme events, organisational resilience, resilience

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Authors: Basma Khelfa, Antoine Tordeux, Ibrahima Ba

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We present a descriptive analysis data of lane-changing events in multi-lane roads. The data are provided from The Highway Drone Dataset (HighD), which are microscopic trajectories in highway. This paper describes and analyses the role of the different parameters and their significance. Thanks to HighD data, we aim to find the most frequent reasons that motivate drivers to change lanes. We used the programming language R for the processing of these data. We analyze the involvement and relationship of different variables of each parameter of the ego vehicle and the four vehicles surrounding it, i.e., distance, speed difference, time gap, and acceleration. This was studied according to the class of the vehicle (car or truck), and according to the maneuver it undertook (overtaking or falling back).

Keywords: autonomous driving, physical traffic model, prediction model, statistical learning process

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Authors: Ankita Singh

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Sex trafficking and child pornography are those kinds of borderless crimes which can not be effectively prevented only through the laws and efforts of one country because it requires a proper and smooth collaboration among countries. Eradication of international human trafficking syndicates, criminalisation of international cyber offenders, and effective ban on child pornography is not possible without applying effective universal laws; hence, continuous collaboration of all countries is much needed to adopt and routinely update these universal laws. Congregation of countries on an international platform is very necessary from time to time, where they can simultaneously adopt international agendas and create powerful universal laws to prevent sex trafficking and child pornography in this modern digital era. In the past, some international steps have been taken through The Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC) and through The Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child on the Sale of Children, Child Prostitution, and Child Pornography, but in reality, these measures are quite weak and are not capable in effectively protecting children from sexual abuse in this modern & highly advanced digital era. The uncontrolled growth of artificial intelligence (AI) and its misuse, lack of proper legal jurisdiction over foreign child abusers and difficulties in their extradition, improper control over international trade of digital child pornographic content, etc., are some prominent issues which can only be controlled through some new, effective and powerful universal laws. Due to a lack of effective international standards and a lack of improper collaboration among countries, Indian laws are also not capable of taking effective actions against child abusers. This research will be conducted through both doctrinal as well as empirical methods. Various literary sources will be examined, and a questionnaire survey will be conducted to analyse the effectiveness of international standards and Indian laws against child pornography. Participants in this survey will be Indian University students. In this work, the existing international norms made for protecting children from sexual abuse will be critically analysed. It will explore why effective and strong collaboration between countries is required in modern times. It will be analysed whether existing international steps are enough to protect children from getting trafficked or being subjected to pornography, and if these steps are not found to be sufficient enough, then suggestions will be given on how international standards and protections can be made more effective and powerful in this digital era. The approach of India towards the existing international standards, the Indian laws to protect children from being subjected to pornography, and the contributions & capabilities of India in strengthening the international standards will also be analysed.

Keywords: child pornography, prevention of children from sexual offences act, the optional protocol to the convention on the rights of the child on the sale of children, child prostitution and child pornography, the convention on the rights of the child

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Authors: Abdullah M. Alodhaiani, Yasir A. Alturki, Mohamed A. Elkady

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Complex power flow distribution factors, which relate line complex power flows to the bus injected complex powers, have been widely used in various power system planning and analysis studies. In particular, AC distribution factors have been used extensively in the recent power and energy pricing studies in free electricity market field. As was demonstrated in the existing literature, many of the electricity market related costing studies rely on the use of the distribution factors. These known distribution factors, whether the injection shift factors (ISF’s) or power transfer distribution factors (PTDF’s), are linear approximations of the first order sensitivities of the active power flows with respect to various variables. This paper presents a novel model for evaluating the universal distribution factors (UDF’s), which are appropriate for an extensive range of power systems analysis and free electricity market studies. These distribution factors are used for the calculations of lines complex power flows and its independent of bus power injections, they are compact matrix-form expressions with total flexibility in determining the position on the line at which line flows are measured. The proposed approach was tested on IEEE 9-Bus system. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach is very accurate compared with exact method.

Keywords: distribution factors, power system, sensitivity factors, electricity market

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Authors: Domingos Viegas, Miguel Almeida, Carmen Rocha, Ilda Novo, Yolanda Luna

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Forest fires along the more than 1200km of the Spanish-Portuguese border are more and more frequent, currently achieving around 2000 fire events per year. Some of these events develop to large international wildfire requiring concerted operations based on shared information between the two countries. The fire event of Valencia de Alcantara (2003) causing several fatalities and more than 13000ha burnt, is a reference example of these international events. Currently, Portugal and Spain have a specific cross-border cooperation protocol on wildfires response for a strip of about 30km (15 km for each side). It is recognized by public authorities the successfulness of this collaboration however it is also assumed that this cooperation should include more functionalities such as the development of a common risk information system for transboundary fire events. Since Portuguese and Spanish authorities use different approaches to determine the fire risk indexes inputs and different methodologies to assess the fire risk, sometimes the conjoint firefighting operations are jeopardized since the information is not harmonized and the understanding of the situation by the civil protection agents from both countries is not unique. Thus, a methodology aiming the harmonization of the fire risk calculation and perception by Portuguese and Spanish Civil protection authorities is hereby presented. The final results are presented as well. The fire risk index used in this work is the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which is based on meteorological data. The FWI is limited on its application as it does not take into account other important factors with great effect on the fire appearance and development. The combination of these factors is very complex since, besides the meteorology, it addresses several parameters of different topics, namely: sociology, topography, vegetation and soil cover. Therefore, the meaning of FWI values is different from region to region, according the specific characteristics of each region. In this work, a methodology for FWI calibration based on the number of fire occurrences and on the burnt area in the transboundary regions of Portugal and Spain, in order to assess the fire risk based on calibrated FWI values, is proposed. As previously mentioned, the cooperative firefighting operations require a common perception of the information shared. Therefore, a common classification of the fire risk for the fire events occurred in the transboundary strip is proposed with the objective of harmonizing this type of information. This work is integrated in the ECHO project SpitFire - Spanish-Portuguese Meteorological Information System for Transboundary Operations in Forest Fires, which aims the development of a web platform for the sharing of information and supporting decision tools to be used in international fire events involving Portugal and Spain.

Keywords: data harmonization, FWI, international collaboration, transboundary wildfires

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Authors: Rui Teixeira, Alan O’Connor, Maria Nogal

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The statistical theory of extreme events is progressively a topic of growing interest in all the fields of science and engineering. The changes currently experienced by the world, economic and environmental, emphasized the importance of dealing with extreme occurrences with improved accuracy. When it comes to the design of offshore structures, particularly offshore wind turbines, the importance of efficiently characterizing extreme events is of major relevance. Extreme events are commonly characterized by extreme values theory. As an alternative, the accurate modeling of the tails of statistical distributions and the characterization of the low occurrence events can be achieved with the application of the Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) methodology. The POT methodology allows for a more refined fit of the statistical distribution by truncating the data with a minimum value of a predefined threshold u. For mathematically approximating the tail of the empirical statistical distribution the Generalised Pareto is widely used. Although, in the case of the exceedances of significant wave data (H_s) the 2 parameters Weibull and the Exponential distribution, which is a specific case of the Generalised Pareto distribution, are frequently used as an alternative. The Generalized Pareto, despite the existence of practical cases where it is applied, is not completely recognized as the adequate solution to model exceedances over a certain threshold u. References that set the Generalised Pareto distribution as a secondary solution in the case of significant wave data can be identified in the literature. In this framework, the current study intends to tackle the discussion of the application of statistical models to characterize exceedances of wave data. Comparison of the application of the Generalised Pareto, the 2 parameters Weibull and the Exponential distribution are presented for different values of the threshold u. Real wave data obtained in four buoys along the Irish coast was used in the comparative analysis. Results show that the application of the statistical distributions to characterize significant wave data needs to be addressed carefully and in each particular case one of the statistical models mentioned fits better the data than the others. Depending on the value of the threshold u different results are obtained. Other variables of the fit, as the number of points and the estimation of the model parameters, are analyzed and the respective conclusions were drawn. Some guidelines on the application of the POT method are presented. Modeling the tail of the distributions shows to be, for the present case, a highly non-linear task and, due to its growing importance, should be addressed carefully for an efficient estimation of very low occurrence events.

Keywords: extreme events, offshore structures, peak-over-threshold, significant wave data

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Authors: Karen Fang

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Investigative genetic genealogy has attracted much interest in both the field of ethics and the public eye due to its global application in criminal cases. Arguments have been made regarding privacy and informed consent, especially with law enforcement using consumer genetic testing results to convict individuals. In the case of public interest, DNA databases have the strong potential to significantly reduce crime, which in turn leads to safer communities and better futures. With the advancement of genetic technologies, the integration of a universal forensic DNA database in violent crimes, crimes against children, and missing person cases is expected to deter crime while protecting one’s privacy. Rather than collecting whole genomes from the whole population, STR profiles can be used to identify unrelated individuals without compromising personal information such as physical appearance, disease risk, and geographical origin, and additionally, reduce cost and storage space. STR DNA profiling is already used in the forensic science field and going a step further benefits several areas, including the reduction in recidivism, improved criminal court case turnaround time, and just punishment. Furthermore, adding individuals to the database as early as possible prevents young offenders and first-time offenders from participating in criminal activity. It is important to highlight that DNA databases should be inclusive and tightly governed, and the misconception on the use of DNA based on crime television series and other media sources should be addressed. Nonetheless, deterrent effects have been observed in countries like the US and Denmark with DNA databases that consist of serious violent offenders. Fewer crimes were reported, and fewer people were convicted of those crimes- a favorable outcome, not even the death penalty could provide. Currently, there is no better alternative than a universal forensic DNA database made up of STR profiles. It can open doors for investigative genetic genealogy and fostering better communities. Expanding the appropriate use of DNA databases is ethically acceptable and positively impacts the public.

Keywords: bioethics, deterrent effects, DNA database, investigative genetic genealogy, privacy, public interest

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Authors: Humraaz Kaja, Kofi Mensah, Frasia Oosthuizen

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Background and Aim: Vilazodone was approved in 2011 as an antidepressant to treat the major depressive disorder. As a relatively new drug, it is not clear if all adverse effects have been identified. The aim of this study was to review the adverse effects reported to the WHO Programme for International Drug Monitoring (PIDM) in order to add to the knowledge about the safety profile and adverse effects caused by vilazodone. Method: Data on adverse effects reported for vilazodone was obtained from the database VigiAccess managed by PIDM. Data was extracted from VigiAccess using Excel® and analyzed using descriptive statistics. The data collected was compared to the patient information leaflet (PIL) of Viibryd® and the FDA documents to determine adverse drug reactions reported post-marketing. Results: A total of 9708 adverse events had been recorded on VigiAccess, of which 6054 were not recorded on the PIL and the FDA approval document. Most of the reports were received from the Americas and were for adult women aged 45-64 years (24%, n=1059). The highest number of adverse events reported were for psychiatric events (19%; n=1889), followed by gastro-intestinal effects (18%; n=1839). Specific psychiatric disorders recorded included anxiety (316), depression (208), hallucination (168) and agitation (142). The systematic review confirmed several psychiatric adverse effects associated with the use of vilazodone. The findings of this study suggested that these common psychiatric adverse effects associated with the use of vilazodone were not known during the time of FDA approval of the drug and is not currently recorded in the patient information leaflet (PIL). Conclusions: In summary, this study found several adverse drug reactions not recorded in documents emanating from clinical trials pre-marketing. This highlights the importance of continued post-marketing surveillance of a drug, as well as the need for further studies on the psychiatric adverse events associated with vilazodone in order to improve the safety profile.

Keywords: adverse drug reactions, pharmacovigilance, post-marketing surveillance, vilazodone

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Authors: Stijn Horck

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Background: The value of lessons learned from failure increases when these insights can be put to use by those who did not experience the failure. While learning from others has mostly been researched between individuals or teams within the same environment, transferring knowledge from the person who experienced the failure to an outsider comes with extra challenges. As sense-making of failure is an individual process leading to different learning experiences, the potential of lessons learned from failure is highly variable depending on who is transferring the lessons learned. Using an integrated framework of linguistic aspects related to attributional egotism, this study aims to offer a complete explanation of the challenges in transferring lessons learned from failures that are experienced by others. Method: A case study of a failed foundation established to address the information needs for GPs in times of COVID-19 has been used. An overview of failure causes and lessons learned were made through a preliminary analysis of data collected in two phases with metaphoric examples of failure types. This was followed up by individual narrative interviews with the board members who have all experienced the same events to analyse the individual variance of lessons learned through discourse analysis. This research design uses the researcher-as-instrument approach since the recipient of these lessons learned is the author himself. Results: Thirteen causes were given why the foundation has failed, and nine lessons were formulated. Based on the individually emphasized events, the explanation of the failure events mentioned by all or three respondents consisted of more linguistic aspects related to attributional egotism than failure events mentioned by only one or two. Moreover, the learning events mentioned by all or three respondents involved lessons learned that are based on changed insight, while the lessons expressed by only one or two are more based on direct value. Retrospectively, the lessons expressed as a group in the first data collection phase seem to have captured some but not all of the direct value lessons. Conclusion: Individual variance in expressing lessons learned to outsiders can be reduced using metaphoric or analogical explanations from a third party. In line with the attributional egotism theory, individuals separated from a group that has experienced the same failure are more likely to refer to failure causes of which the chances to be contradicted are the smallest. Lastly, this study contributes to the academic literature by demonstrating that the use of linguistic analysis is suitable for investigating the knowledge transfer from lessons learned after failure.

Keywords: failure, discourse analysis, knowledge transfer, attributional egotism

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Authors: Kylie Mueller, Nijole Bernaitis, Shailendra Anoopkumar-Dukie

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Background: Vitamin K antagonists particularly warfarin is the most frequently used oral medication for deep vein thrombosis (DVT) treatment and prophylaxis. Time in therapeutic range (TITR) of the international normalised ratio (INR) is widely accepted as a measure to assess the quality of warfarin therapy. Multiple factors can affect warfarin control and the subsequent adverse outcomes including thromboembolic and bleeding events. Predictor models have been developed to assess potential contributing factors and measure the individual risk of these adverse events. These predictive models have been validated in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients, however, there is a lack of literature on whether these can be successfully applied to other warfarin users including DVT patients. Therefore, the aim of the study was to assess the ability of these risk models (HAS BLED and CHADS2) to predict haemorrhagic and ischaemic incidences in DVT patients treated with warfarin. Methods: A retrospective analysis of DVT patients receiving warfarin management by a private pathology clinic was conducted. Data was collected from November 2007 to September 2014 and included demographics, medical and drug history, INR targets and test results. Patients receiving continuous warfarin therapy with an INR reference range between 2.0 and 3.0 were included in the study with mean TITR calculated using the Rosendaal method. Bleeding and thromboembolic events were recorded and reported as incidences per patient. The haemorrhagic risk model HAS BLED and ischaemic risk model CHADS2 were applied to the data. Patients were then stratified into either the low, moderate, or high-risk categories. The analysis was conducted to determine if a correlation existed between risk assessment tool and patient outcomes. Data was analysed using GraphPad Instat Version 3 with a p value of <0.05 considered to be statistically significant. Patient characteristics were reported as mean and standard deviation for continuous data and categorical data reported as number and percentage. Results: Of the 533 patients included in the study, there were 268 (50.2%) female and 265 (49.8%) male patients with a mean age of 62.5 years (±16.4). The overall mean TITR was 78.3% (±12.7) with an overall haemorrhagic incidence of 0.41 events per patient. For the HAS BLED model, there was a haemorrhagic incidence of 0.08, 0.53, and 0.54 per patient in the low, moderate and high-risk categories respectively showing a statistically significant increase in incidence with increasing risk category. The CHADS2 model showed an increase in ischaemic events according to risk category with no ischaemic events in the low category, and an ischaemic incidence of 0.03 in the moderate category and 0.47 high-risk categories. Conclusion: An increasing haemorrhagic incidence correlated to an increase in the HAS BLED risk score in DVT patients treated with warfarin. Furthermore, a greater incidence of ischaemic events occurred in patients with an increase in CHADS2 category. In an Australian population of DVT patients, the HAS BLED and CHADS2 accurately predicts incidences of haemorrhage and ischaemic events respectively.

Keywords: anticoagulant agent, deep vein thrombosis, risk assessment, warfarin

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Authors: Saeed Farhadypour, Majid Azadi, Habibolla Sayyari, Mahmood Mosavi, Shahram Irani, Aliakbar Bidokhti, Omid Alizadeh Choobari, Ziba Hamidi

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In the recent decades, frequencies of dust events have increased significantly in west and south west of Iran. First, a survey on the dust events during the period (1990-2013) is investigated using historical dust data collected at 6 weather stations scattered over west and south-west of Iran. After statistical analysis of the observational data, one of the most severe dust storm event that occurred in the region from 3rd to 6th July 2009, is selected and analyzed. WRF-Chem model is used to simulate the amount of PM10 and how to transport it to the areas. The initial and lateral boundary conditions for model obtained from GFS data with 0.5°×0.5° spatial resolution. In the simulation, two aerosol schemas (GOCART and MADE/SORGAM) with 3 options (chem_opt=106,300 and 303) were evaluated. Results of the statistical analysis of the historical data showed that south west of Iran has high frequency of dust events, so that Bushehr station has the highest frequency between stations and Urmia station has the lowest frequency. Also in the period of 1990 to 2013, the years 2009 and 1998 with the amounts of 3221 and 100 respectively had the highest and lowest dust events and according to the monthly variation, June and July had the highest frequency of dust events and December had the lowest frequency. Besides, model results showed that the MADE / SORGAM scheme has predicted values and trends of PM10 better than the other schemes and has showed the better performance in comparison with the observations. Finally, distribution of PM10 and the wind surface maps obtained from numerical modeling showed that the formation of dust plums formed in Iraq and Syria and also transportation of them to the West and Southwest of Iran. In addition, comparing the MODIS satellite image acquired on 4th July 2009 with model output at the same time showed the good ability of WRF-Chem in simulating spatial distribution of dust.

Keywords: dust storm, MADE/SORGAM scheme, PM10, WRF-Chem

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Authors: Apoorva Vinod, Archana Mathur, Snehanshu Saha

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Though there exists a plethora of Activation Functions (AFs) used in single and multiple hidden layer Neural Networks (NN), their behavior always raised curiosity, whether used in combination or singly. The popular AFs –Sigmoid, ReLU, and Tanh–have performed prominently well for shallow and deep architectures. Most of the time, AFs are used singly in multi-layered NN, and, to the best of our knowledge, their performance is never studied and analyzed deeply when used in combination. In this manuscript, we experiment with multi-layered NN architecture (both on shallow and deep architectures; Convolutional NN and VGG16) and investigate how well the network responds to using two different AFs (Sigmoid-Tanh, Tanh-ReLU, ReLU-Sigmoid) used alternately against a traditional, single (Sigmoid-Sigmoid, Tanh-Tanh, ReLUReLU) combination. Our results show that using two different AFs, the network achieves better accuracy, substantially lower loss, and faster convergence on 4 computer vision (CV) and 15 Non-CV (NCV) datasets. When using different AFs, not only was the accuracy greater by 6-7%, but we also accomplished convergence twice as fast. We present a case study to investigate the probability of networks suffering vanishing and exploding gradients when using two different AFs. Additionally, we theoretically showed that a composition of two or more AFs satisfies Universal Approximation Theorem (UAT).

Keywords: activation function, universal approximation function, neural networks, convergence

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Authors: Milan Joshi, Harsh Agrawal, Pallaw Mishra, Sanand Sule

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Predicting electricity usage is a crucial aspect of organizing and controlling sustainable energy systems. The task of forecasting electricity load is intricate and requires a lot of effort due to the combined impact of social, economic, technical, environmental, and cultural factors on power consumption in communities. As a result, it is important to create strong models that can handle the significant non-linear and complex nature of the task. The objective of this study is to create and compare three machine learning techniques for predicting electricity load for both the day ahead and intraday, taking into account various factors such as meteorological data and social events including holidays and festivals. The proposed methods include a LightGBM, FBProphet, combination of FBProphet and LightGBM for day ahead and Motifs( Stumpy) based on Mueens algorithm for similarity search for intraday. We utilize these techniques to predict electricity usage during normal days and social events in the Himachal Region. We then assess their performance by measuring the MSE, RMSE, and MAPE values. The outcomes demonstrate that the combination of FBProphet and LightGBM method is the most accurate for day ahead and Motifs for intraday forecasting of electricity usage, surpassing other models in terms of MAPE, RMSE, and MSE. Moreover, the FBProphet - LightGBM approach proves to be highly effective in forecasting electricity load during social events, exhibiting precise day ahead predictions. In summary, our proposed electricity forecasting techniques display excellent performance in predicting electricity usage during normal days and special events in the Himachal Region.

Keywords: feature engineering, FBProphet, LightGBM, MASS, Motifs, MAPE

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Authors: Santosh Kumar Biswal, Ramakar Jha

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Soil erosion is a slow and continuous process and one of the prominent problems across the world leading to many serious problems like loss of soil fertility, loss of soil structure, poor internal drainage, sedimentation deposits etc. In this paper remote sensing and GIS based methods have been applied for the determination of soil erosion and sediment yield. Tel River basin which is the second largest tributary of the river Mahanadi laying between latitude 19° 15' 32.4"N and, 20° 45' 0"N and longitude 82° 3' 36"E and 84° 18' 18"E chosen for the present study. The catchment was discretized into approximately homogeneous sub-areas (grid cells) to overcome the catchment heterogeneity. The gross soil erosion in each cell was computed using Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). Various parameters for USLE was determined as a function of land topography, soil texture, land use/land cover, rainfall, erosivity and crop management and practice in the watershed. The concept of transport limited accumulation was formulated and the transport capacity maps were generated. The gross soil erosion was routed to the catchment outlet. This study can help in recognizing critical erosion prone areas of the study basin so that suitable control measures can be implemented.

Keywords: Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), GIS, land use, sediment yield,

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Authors: Szu-Hua Wang, Yi-Wen Chen

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Urban ecosystems are complex coupled human-environment systems. They contain abundant natural resources for producing natural assets and attract urban assets to consume natural resources for urban development. Urban ecosystems provide several ecosystem services, including provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services, and supporting services. Rapid global climate change makes urban ecosystems and their ecosystem services encountering various natural disasters. Lots of natural disasters have occurred around the world under the constant changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the past two decades. In Taiwan, hydrological disasters have been paid more attention due to the potential high sensitivity of Taiwan’s cities to climate change, and it impacts. However, climate change not only causes extreme weather events directly but also affects the interactions among human, ecosystem services and their dynamic feedback processes indirectly. Therefore, this study adopts a systematic method, solar energy synthesis, based on the concept of the eco-energy analysis. The Taipei area, the most densely populated area in Taiwan, is selected as the study area. The changes of ecosystem services between 2015 and Typhoon Soudelor have been compared in order to investigate the impacts of extreme precipitation events on ecosystem services. The results show that the forest areas are the largest contributions of energy to ecosystem services in the Taipei area generally. Different soil textures of different subsystem have various upper limits of water contents or substances. The major contribution of ecosystem services of the study area is natural hazard regulation provided by the surface water resources areas. During the period of Typhoon Soudelor, the freshwater supply in the forest areas had become the main contribution. Erosion control services were the main ecosystem service affected by Typhoon Soudelor. The second and third main ecosystem services were hydrologic regulation and food supply. Due to the interactions among ecosystem services, fresh water supply, water purification, and waste treatment had been affected severely.

Keywords: ecosystem, extreme precipitation events, ecosystem services, solar energy synthesis

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Authors: Abdulmalik Altuwayjiri, Milad Pirhadi, Mohammed Kalafy, Badr Alharbi, Constantinos Sioutas

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In this study, we investigated the chemical and toxicological characteristics of PM10 in the metropolitan area of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. PM10 samples were collected on quartz and teflon filters during cold (December 2019–April 2020) and warm (May 2020–August 2020) seasons, including dust and non-dust events. The PM10 constituents were chemically analyzed for their metal, inorganic ions, and elemental and organic carbon (EC/OC) contents. Additionally, the PM10 oxidative potential was measured by means of the dithiothreitol (DTT) assay. Our findings revealed that the oxidative potential of the collected ambient PM10 samples was significantly higher than those measured in many urban areas worldwide. The oxidative potential of the collected ambient PM¹⁰⁻ samples was also higher during dust episodes compared to non-dust events, mainly due to higher concentrations of metals during these events. We performed Pearson correlation analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), and multi-linear regression (MLR) to identify the most significant sources contributing to the toxicity of PM¹⁰⁻ The results of the MLR analyses indicated that the major pollution sources contributing to the oxidative potential of ambient PM10 were soil and resuspended dust emissions (identified by Al, K, Fe, and Li) (31%), followed by secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation (traced by SO₄-² and NH+₄) (20%), and industrial activities (identified by Se and La) (19%), and traffic emissions (characterized by EC, Zn, and Cu) (17%). Results from this study underscore the impact of transported dust emissions on the oxidative potential of ambient PM10 in Riyadh and can be helpful in adopting appropriate public health policies regarding detrimental outcomes of exposure to PM₁₀-

Keywords: ambient PM10, oxidative potential, source apportionment, Riyadh, dust episodes

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Authors: Hisyam Hidayatullah

Abstract:

This world events consciously or not realize everything has a pattern, until the events of the universe according to the Big Bang theory of the solar system which makes so regular in the rotation. The author would like to create a results curve area between the quadratic function y=kx2 and line y=ka2 using GeoGebra application version 4.2. This paper can provide a series that is no less interesting with Fourier series, so that will add new material about the series can be calculated with sigma notation. In addition, the ranks of the unique natural numbers of extensive changes in established areas. Finally, this paper provides analytical and geometric proof of the vast area in between the lines and curves that give the area is formed by y=ka2 dan kurva y=kx2, x-axis, line x=√a and x=-√a make a series of numbers for k=1 and a ∈ original numbers. ∑_(i=0)^n=(4n√n)/3=0+4/3+(8√2)/3+4√3+⋯+(4n√n)/3. The author calls the series “H154M”.

Keywords: sequence, series, sigma notation, application GeoGebra

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