Search results for: time kill effect

Authors: Yin-Yee Leong, Jack C. Yue, Hsin-Chung Wang

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Human longevity has been experiencing its largest increase since the end of World War II, and modeling the mortality rates is therefore often the focus of many studies. Among all mortality models, the Lee–Carter model is the most popular approach since it is fairly easy to use and has good accuracy in predicting mortality rates (e.g., for Japan and the USA). However, empirical studies from several countries have shown that the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant in time. Many modifications of the Lee–Carter model have been proposed to deal with this problem, including adding an extra cohort effect and adding another period effect. In this study, we propose a spatial modification and use clusters to explain why the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant. In spatial analysis, clusters are areas with unusually high or low mortality rates than their neighbors, where the “location” of mortality rates is measured by age and time, that is, a 2-dimensional coordinate. We use a popular cluster detection method—Spatial scan statistics, a local statistical test based on the likelihood ratio test to evaluate where there are locations with mortality rates that cannot be described well by the Lee–Carter model. We first use computer simulation to demonstrate that the cluster effect is a possible source causing the problem of the age parameters not being constant. Next, we show that adding the cluster effect can solve the non-constant problem. We also apply the proposed approach to mortality data from Japan, France, the USA, and Taiwan. The empirical results show that our approach has better-fitting results and smaller mean absolute percentage errors than the Lee–Carter model.

Keywords: mortality improvement, Lee–Carter model, spatial statistics, cluster detection

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Authors: Claudia Munoz, Henry Laniado

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In this research, the impact of outbound and return flight schedule preferences on airline choice for international trips is quantified. Several studies have used airline choice data to identify preferences and trade-offs of different air carrier service attributes, such as travel time, fare and frequencies. However, estimation of the effect return flight schedules have on airline choice for an international round-trip flight has not yet been studied in detail. The multinomial logit model found shows that airfare, travel time, arrival preference schedule in the outward journey, departure preference in the return journey and the schedule combination of round-trip flights are significantly affecting passenger choice behavior in international round-trip flights. it results indicated that return flight schedule preference plays a substantial role in air carrier choice and has a similar effect to outbound flight schedule preference. Thus, this study provides an analytical tool designed to provide a better understanding of international round-trip flight demand determinants and support carrier decisions.

Keywords: flight schedule, airline choice, return flight, passenger choice behavior

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Authors: Tugbay Inan

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Competitive balance is known to have an important effect in determining the result of football matches. The degree of competitiveness is referred as competitive balance in football. Sports economics are the extent to which overall league attendances will be raised by measures, such as media effect, home advantage, revenue sharing, which aim to improve competitive balance. The purpose of present study was to measure the competitive balance in the football league of Turkey. In this study, by using long term competitive balance analysis, some facing problems and precautions were discussed through the seasons (1987-2014) in Turkish Football Super League (TSL). Within the practice of this study, The way that competitive balance level followed was determined in the history of super league (27 years). Based on this purpose, C5 Competitive Balance Index (C5CBI) and a Herfindahl index of competitive balance (HICB) were used. Finally, it is seen that in Super League, competitive balance factor took place time to time, however in total, a view apart from competitive balance is obviously seen.

Keywords: competitive balance, turkish football, c5 competitive balance index, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index

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Authors: Zhuo Cheng, Gaohang Cui, Yang Zheng, Zhiqiang-Pan

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To explore the effect of freeze-thaw cycles on saline soil mechanical properties of fly ash, this study examined the influence of different numbers of freezing and thawing cycles, fly ash content, and moisture content of saline soil in unconfined compression tests and triaxial shear tests. With increased fly ash content, the internal friction angle, cohesion, unconfined compressive strength, and shear strength of the improved soil increased at first and then decreased. Using the Desk-Expert 8.0 software and based on significance analysis theory, the number of freeze-thaw cycles, fly ash content, water content, and the interactions between various factors on the mechanical properties of saline soil were studied. The results showed that the number of freeze-thaw cycles had a significant effect on the mechanical properties of saline soil, while the fly ash content had a weakly significant effect. At the same time, interaction between the number of freeze-thaw cycles and the water content had a significant effect on the unconfined compressive strength and the cohesion of saline soil, and the interaction between fly ash content and the number of freeze-thaw cycles only had a significant effect on the unconfined compressive strength.

Keywords: fly ash, saline soil, seasonally frozen area, significance analysis, qualitative analysis

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Authors: Nikolai Nosik, Vladislav Podmasterjev, Nina Kondrashina, Marina Chataeva, Olga Lobach, Dmitry Noosik, Sergei Razumovskii

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Virucidal activity of ozone is well known: dissolved in water it kill viruses very fast. The virucidal capacity of ozone in ozone-air mixture is less known. The goal of the study was to investigate the virucidal potentials of the ozone–air mixture and kinetics of virus inactivation. Materials and methods. Ozone (O3 ) was generated from oxygen with ozonizer ( 1.0 – 75.0 mg\l). The ozone concentration was determined by the spectrophotometric methods. Virus contaminated samples were placed into the flowing reactor. Viruses: poliovirus type 1, vaccine strain (Sabin) and adenovirus, type 5, were obtained from the State virus collection. Titrations of viruses were carried out in appropriate cell cultures. CxT value ( mg\l x min) was calculated. Results. Metallic, polycarbonic and fiber “Kevlar” samples were contaminated with virus, dried and treated with ozone-air mixture in the flowing reactor. Kinetics of poliovirus inactivation: in 15 min at 5.0 mg\l -2.0 lg TCID50 inhibition , in 15 min at 10 mg\l – 2.5 lg TCID50 , 4.0 lg TCID50 inactivation of poliovirus was achieved after 75min at ozone concentration 20.0mg\l (99.99%). ( CxT = 75, 150 and 1500 mg\l x min on all three types of surfaces). It was found that the inactivation of poliovirus was more effective when the virus contaminated samples were wet (in 15 min at 20mg\l inhibition of virus in dry samples was 2.0 TCID50 , in wet samples – 4.0 TCID50). Adenovirus was less resistant to ozone treatment then poliovirus: 4.0 lg TCID50 inhibition was observed after 30 min of the treatment with ozone at 20mg\l ( CxT mg\l x min = 300 for adenovirus as for poliovirus it was 1500). Conclusion. It was found that ozone-air mixture inactivates viruses at rather high concentrations (compared to the reported effect of ozone dissolved in water). Despite of that there is a difference in the resistance to ozone action between viruses – poliovirus is more resistant then adenovirus-ozone-air mixture can be used for disinfection of large rooms. The maintaining of the virus-contaminated surfaces in wet condition allow to decrease the ozone load for virus inactivation.

Keywords: adenovirus, disinfection, ozone, poliovirus

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Authors: Ataa A. Said, Elsayed A. Abuotabl, Gehan F. Abdel Raoof, Khaled Y. Mohamed

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The aim of this study is to evaluate antihyperglycaemic and antihyperlipidemic activities of Pleiogynium timorense (DC.) Leenh (Anacardiaceae) seeds as well as to isolate and identify the bioactive compounds. Antihyperglycaemic effect was evaluated by measuring the effect of two dose levels (150 and 300 mg/kg) of 70% methanol extract of Pleiogynium timorense seeds on blood glucose level when administered 45 minutes before glucose loading. In addition, the effect of the plant extract on the lipid profile was determined by measuring serum total lipids (TL), total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Furthermore, the bioactive compounds were isolated and identified by chromatographic and spectrometric methods.The results showed that the methanolic extract of the seeds significantly reduced the levels of blood glucose,(TL), (TC), (TG) and (LDL-C) but no significant effect on (HDL-C) comparing with control group. Furthermore, four phenolic compound were isolated which were identified as; catechin, gallic acid, para methoxy benzaldehyde and pyrogallol which were isolated for the first time from the plant. In addition sulphur -containing compound (sulpholane) was isolated for the first time from the plant and from the family. To our knowledge, this is the first study about antihyperglycaemicand antihyperlipidemic activities of the seeds of Pleiogyniumtimorense and its bioactive compounds. So, the methanolic extract of the seeds of Pleiogynium timorense could be a step towards the development of new antihyperglycaemic and antihyperlipidemic drugs.

Keywords: antihyperglycaemic, bioactive compounds, phenolic, Pleiogynium timorense, seeds

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Authors: Sanjay Narayan Deo, Badam Singh Kushvah

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Bennu(101955) is a half kilometer potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroid. We analyze the influence of Yarkovsky effect and relativistic effect of the Sun on the motion of the asteroid Bennu. The transverse model is used to compute Yarkovsky force on asteroid Bennu. Our dynamical model includes Newtonian perturbations of eight planets, the Moon, the Sun and three massive asteroid (1Ceres, 2Palas and 4Vesta). We showed the variation in orbital elements of nominal orbit of the asteroid. In the presence of Yarkovsky effect, the Semi-major axis of the orbit of the asteroid is decreases by 350 m over one period of orbital motion. The magnitude of Yarkovsky force is computed. We find that maximum magnitude of Yarkovsky force is 0.09 N at the perihelion . We also found that the magnitude of the Sun relativity effect is greater than the Yarkovsky effect on the motion the asteroid Bennu.

Keywords: Bennu, orbital elements, relativistic effect, Yarkovsky effect

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Authors: Ceyda Dadali, Yeşim Elmaci

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Coffee was introduced as an economic crop during the fifteenth century; nowadays it is the most important food commodity ranking second after crude oil. Desirable sensory properties make coffee one of the most often consumed and most popular beverages in the world. The coffee preparation method has a significant effect on flavor and composition of coffee brews. Three different extraction methodologies namely decoction, infusion and pressure methods have been used for coffee brew preparation. Each of these methods is related to specific granulation (coffee grind) of coffee powder, water-coffee ratio temperature and brewing time. Coffee is a mixture of 1500 chemical compounds. Chemical composition of coffee highly depends on brewing methods, coffee bean species and roasting time-temperature. Coffee contains a wide number of very important bioactive compounds, such as diterpenes: cafestol and kahweol, alkaloids: caffeine, theobromine and trigonelline, melanoidins, phenolic compounds. The phenolic compounds of coffee include chlorogenic acids (quinyl esters of hidroxycinnamic acids), caffeic, ferulic, p-coumaric acid. In coffee caffeoylquinic acids, feruloylquinic acids and di-caffeoylquinic acids are three main groups of chlorogenic acids constitues 6% -10% of dry weight of coffee. The bioavailability of chlorogenic acids in coffee depends on the absorption and metabolization to biomarkers in individuals. Also, the interaction of coffee polyphenols with other compounds such as dietary proteins affects the biomarkers. Since bioactive composition of coffee depends on brewing methods effect of coffee brewing method on bioactive compounds of coffee will be discussed in this study.

Keywords: bioactive compounds of coffee, biomarkers, coffee brew, effect of brewing

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Authors: W. Khati, Y. Guasmi

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The activity of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) was studied in freshwater fish exposed to two heavy metals lead and cadmium. Measurements were made after short exposures (4 and 7 days) at concentrations of 1, 5, and 7μg/L cadmium and 1.25, 2.25, and 5 mg/L of lead. Cadmium induced no significant increases in activity of AChE in the gills for the lowest dose. Except significant inhibition on 7 days. In muscle of Gambusia, under stress of metallic lead, the activity increases compared to the control are noted at 4 days of treatment and inhibitions to 7 days of exposure. The analysis of variance (time, treatment) indicates only a very significant time effect (p<0.05), and as for cadmium, a significant body effect (p<0.01) is recorded. This small fish sedentary, colonizing particularly quiet environments, polluted, can only be the ideal bioindicator of contamination and bioaccumulation of metals. The presence of lead and cadmium in the bodies of fish is a risk factor not only for the lives of these aquatic species, but also for the man who is the top predator at the end of the food chain.

Keywords: biomarkers, bioindicator, environmenlal health, metals

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Authors: Sercan Basit, Muhlis N. Sarıdede

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Metal amounts of copper based compounds in the various wastes have been recovered successfully by hydrometallurgical treatment methods in the literature. X-ray diffraction pattern of the brass melting slag demonstrates that it contains sufficient amount of recoverable copper. Recovery of copper from brass melting dross by sulfuric acid leaching and the effect of temperature and acid and oxidant concentration on recovery rate of copper have been investigated in this study. Experiments were performed in a temperature-controlled reactor in sulfuric acid solution in different molarities using solid liquid ratio of 100 g/L, with leaching time of 300 min. Temperature was changed between 25 °C and 80 °C and molarity was between 0.5 and 3M. The results obtained showed that temperature has important positive effect on recovery whereas it decreases with time. Also copper was recovered in larger amounts from brass dross in the presence of H2O2 as an oxidant according to the case that oxidant was not used.

Keywords: brass dross, copper recovery, hydrogen peroxide, leaching

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Authors: Binyam Teferi

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In this paper, a theoretical analysis of blood flow in the presence of thermal radiation and chemical reaction under the influence of time dependent magnetic field intensity has been studied. The unsteady non linear partial differential equations of blood flow considers time dependent stretching velocity, the energy equation also accounts time dependent temperature of vessel wall, and concentration equation includes time dependent blood concentration. The governing non linear partial differential equations of motion, energy, and concentration are converted into ordinary differential equations using similarity transformations solved numerically by applying ode45. MATLAB code is used to analyze theoretical facts. The effect of physical parameters viz., permeability parameter, unsteadiness parameter, Prandtl number, Hartmann number, thermal radiation parameter, chemical reaction parameter, and Schmidt number on flow variables viz., velocity of blood flow in the vessel, temperature and concentration of blood has been analyzed and discussed graphically. From the simulation study, the following important results are obtained: velocity of blood flow increases with both increment of permeability and unsteadiness parameter. Temperature of the blood increases in vessel wall as Prandtl number and Hartmann number increases. Concentration of the blood decreases as time dependent chemical reaction parameter and Schmidt number increases.

Keywords: stretching velocity, similarity transformations, time dependent magnetic field intensity, thermal radiation, chemical reaction

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Authors: Chung Yan Natalia Yeung, Man Kit Indy Ho, Kin Yu Stan Chan, Ho Pui Kipper Lam, Man Wah Genie Tong, Tze Chung Jim Luk

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Excessive foot pronation is a well-known risk factor of knee and foot injuries such as patellofemoral pain, patellar and Achilles tendinopathy, and plantar fasciitis. Low-Dye taping (LDT) application is not uncommon for basketball players to control excessive foot pronation for pain control and injury prevention. The primary potential benefits of using LDT include providing additional supports to medial longitudinal arch and restricting the excessive midfoot and subtalar motion in weight-bearing activities such as running and landing. Meanwhile, restrictions provided by the rigid tape may also potentially limit functional joint movements and sports performance. Coaches and athletes need to weigh the potential benefits and harmful effects before making a decision if applying LDT technique is worthwhile or not. However, the influence of using LDT on basketball-related performance such as explosive and reactive strength is not well understood. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the change of drop jump (DJ) and countermovement jump (CMJ) performance before and after LDT application for collegiate male basketball players. In this within-subject crossover study, 12 healthy male basketball players (age: 21.7 ± 2.5 years) with at least 3-year regular basketball training experience were recruited. Navicular drop (ND) test was adopted as the screening and only those with excessive pronation (ND ≥ 10mm) were included. Participants with recent lower limb injury history were excluded. Recruited subjects were required to perform both ND, DJ (on a platform of 40cm height) and CMJ (without arms swing) tests in series during taped and non-taped conditions in the counterbalanced order. Reactive strength index (RSI) was calculated by using the flight time divided by the ground contact time measured. For DJ and CMJ tests, the best of three trials was used for analysis. The difference between taped and non-taped conditions for each test was further calculated through standardized effect ± 90% confidence intervals (CI) with clinical magnitude-based inference (MBI). Paired samples T-test showed significant decrease in ND (-4.68 ± 1.44mm; 95% CI: -3.77, -5.60; p < 0.05) while MBI demonstrated most likely beneficial and large effect (standardize effect: -1.59 ± 0.27) in LDT condition. For DJ test, significant increase in both flight time (25.25 ± 29.96ms; 95% CI: 6.22, 44.28; p < 0.05) and RSI (0.22 ± 0.22; 95% CI: 0.08, 0.36; p < 0.05) were observed. In taped condition, MBI showed very likely beneficial and moderate effect (standardized effect: 0.77 ± 0.49) in flight time, possibly beneficial and small effect (standardized effect: -0.26 ± 0.29) in ground contact time and very likely beneficial and moderate effect (standardized effect: 0.77 ± 0.42) in RSI. No significant difference in CMJ was observed (95% CI: -2.73, 2.08; p > 0.05). For basketball players with pes planus, applying LDT could substantially support the foot by elevating the navicular height and potentially provide acute beneficial effects in reactive strength performance. Meanwhile, no significant harmful effect on CMJ was observed. Basketball players may consider applying LDT before the game or training to enhance the reactive strength performance. However since the observed effects in this study could not generalize to other players without excessive foot pronation, further studies on players with normal foot arch or navicular height are recommended.

Keywords: flight time, pes planus, pronated foot, reactive strength index

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Authors: Djemaa Megdoud, Messaoud Boudaa, Fatima Ouamrane, Salem Benamara

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In recent years, the compression of date (Phoenix dactylifera L.) fruit powders (DP) to obtain date tablets (DT) has been suggested as a promising form of valorization of non commercial valuable date fruit (DF) varieties. To further improve and characterize DT, the present study aims to investigate the influence of the DP particle size and compression force on some physical properties of DT. The results show that independently of particle size, the hardness (y) of tablets increases with the increase of the compression force (x) following a logarithmic law (y = a ln (bx) where a and b are the constants of model). Further, a full factorial design (FFD) at two levels, applied to investigate the erosion %, reveals that the effects of time and particle size are the same in absolute value and they are beyond the effect of the compression. Regarding the disintegration time, the obtained results also by means of a FFD show that the effect of the compression force exceeds 4 times that of the DP particle size. As final stage, the color parameters in the CIELab system of DT immediately after their obtaining are differently influenced by the size of the initial powder.

Keywords: powder, tablets, date (Phoenix dactylifera L.), hardness, erosion, disintegration time, color

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Authors: Duhania O. Mahara, Santi W. Purnami, Aulia N. Fitria, Merissa N. Z. Wirontono, Revina Musfiroh, Shofi Andari, Sagiran Sagiran, Estiana Khoirunnisa, Wahyudi Widada

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For assessing interventions in numerous disease areas, the use of multiple time-to-event outcomes is common. An individual might experience two different events called bivariate time-to-event data, the events may be correlated because it come from the same subject and also influenced by individual characteristics. The bivariate time-to-event case can be applied by copula-based bivariate Cox survival model, using the Clayton and Frank copulas to analyze the dependence structure of each event and also the covariates effect. By applying this method to modeling the recurrent event infection of hemodialysis insertion on chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, from the AIC and BIC values we find that the Clayton copula model was the best model with Kendall’s Tau is (τ=0,02).

Keywords: bivariate cox, bivariate event, copula function, survival copula

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Authors: J. Trarbach, S. Schosser, B. Vogt

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Decision-makers tend to prefer the first alternative over subsequent alternatives which is called the primacy effect. To reliably measure this effect, we conducted an experiment with real consequences for preference statements. Therefore, we elicit preferences of subjects using a rating scale, i.e. hypothetical preferences, and willingness to pay, i.e. real preferences, for two sequences of pain. Within these sequences, both overall intensity and duration of pain are identical. Hence, a rational decision-maker should be indifferent, whereas the primacy effect predicts a stronger preference for the first sequence. What we see is a primacy effect only for hypothetical preferences. This effect vanishes for real preferences.

Keywords: decision making, primacy effect, real incentives, willingness to pay

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Authors: Mefteh Bouhalleb

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With the recent progress in nanotechnology, nanofluids have excellent potentiality in many modern engineering processes, particularly for solar systems such as concentrated solar power plants (CSP). In this context, a numerical simulation is performed to investigate laminar natural convection nanofluids in an inclined rectangular enclosure. Mass conservation, momentum, and energy equations are numerically solved by the finite volume element method using the SIMPLER algorithm for pressure-velocity coupling. In this work, we tested the acting factors on the system response time, such as the particle volume fraction of nanoparticles, particle material, particle size, an inclination angle of enclosure and Rayleigh number. The results show that the diameter of solid particles and Rayleigh number plays an important role in the system response time. The orientation angle of the cavity affects the system response time. A phenomenon of hysteresis appears when the system does not return to its initial state.

Keywords: nanofluid, nanoparticles, heat transfer, time response

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Authors: A. D. Chandio, P. Xiao

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In this study, nickel aluminide coatings were deposited onto CMSX-4 single crystal superalloy and pure Ni substrates by using in-situ chemical vapour deposition (CVD) technique. The microstructural evolutions and coating thickness (CT) were studied upon the variation of processing conditions i.e. time and temperature. The results demonstrated (under identical conditions) that coating formed on pure Ni contains no substrate entrapments and have lower CT in comparison to one deposited on the CMSX-4 counterpart. In addition, the interdiffusion zone (IDZ) of Ni substrate is a γ’-Ni3Al in comparison to the CMSX-4 alloy that is βNiAl phase. The higher CT on CMSX-4 superalloy is attributed to presence of γ-Ni/γ’-Ni3Al structure which contains ~ 15 at.% Al before deposition (that is already present in superalloy). Two main deposition parameters (time and temperature) of the coatings were also studied in addition to standard comparison of substrate effects. The coating formation time was found to exhibit profound effect on CT, whilst temperature was found to change coating activities. In addition, the CT showed linear trend from 800 to 1000 °C, thereafter reduction was observed. This was attributed to the change in coating activities.

Keywords: βNiAl, in-situ CVD, CT, CMSX-4, Ni, microstructure

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Authors: Masni Mat Yusoff, Michael H. Gordon, Keshavan Niranjan

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The study reports on the effect of aqueous enzymatic extraction (AEE) parameters on the Moringa oleifera (MO) oil yield and the formation of emulsion at the end of the process. A mixture of protease and cellulase enzymes was used at 3:1 (w/w) ratio. The highest oil yield of 19% (g oil/g sample) was recovered with the use of a mixture of pH 6, 1:4 material/moisture ratio, and incubation temperature, time, and shaking speed of 50 ⁰C, 12.5 hr, and 300 stroke/min, respectively. The use of pH 6 and 8 resulted in grain emulsions, while solid-intact emulsion was observed at pH 4. Upon fixing certain parameters, higher oil yield was extracted with the use of lower material/moisture ratio and higher shaking speed. Longer incubation time of 24 hr resulted in significantly (p < 0.05) similar oil yield with that of 12.5 hr, and an incubation temperature of 50 ⁰C resulted in significantly (p < 0.05) higher oil yield than that of 60 ⁰C. In overall, each AEE parameter showed significant effects on both the MO oil yields and the emulsions formed. One of the major disadvantages of an AEE process is the formation of emulsions which require further de-emulsification step for higher oil recovery. Therefore, critical studies on the effect of each AEE parameter may assist in minimizing the amount of emulsions formed whilst extracting highest total MO oil yield possible.

Keywords: enzyme, emulsion, Moringa oleifera, oil yield

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Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

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Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution

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Authors: Hiroki Takiguchi, Masahiro Furuya, Takahiro Arai

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In order to quantitatively comprehend thermal flow for some industrial applications such as nuclear and chemical reactors, detailed measurements for temperature and abundance (concentration) of materials at high temporal and spatial resolution are required. Additionally, rigorous evaluation of the size effect is also important for practical realization. This paper introduces a real-time spectroscopic imaging method in micro scale field, which visualizes temperature and concentration distribution of a liquid or mix liquids with near-infrared (NIR) wavelength region. This imaging principle is based on absorption of pre-selected narrow band from absorption spectrum peak or its dependence property of target liquid in NIR region. For example, water has a positive temperature sensitivity in the wavelength at 1905 nm, therefore the temperature of water can be measured using the wavelength band. In the experiment, the real-time imaging observation of concentration distribution in micro channel was demonstrated to investigate the applicability of micro-scale diffusion coefficient and temperature measurement technique using this proposed method. The effect of thermal diffusion and binary mutual diffusion was evaluated with the time-series visualizations of concentration distribution.

Keywords: near-infrared spectroscopic imaging, micro fluid channel, concentration distribution, diffusion phenomenon

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Authors: Fouad Berrabeh, Sabir Messalti

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The performances of the photovoltaic systems are very dependent on different conditions, such as solar irradiation, temperature, etc. Therefore, it is very important to provide detailed studies for different cases in order to provide continuously power, so the photovoltaic system must be properly sized. This paper presents the modelling and simulation of the photovoltaic cell using single diode model. I-V characteristics and P-V characteristics are presented and it verified at different conditions (irradiance effect, temperature effect, series resistance effect).

Keywords: photovoltaic cell, BP SX 150 BP solar photovoltaic module, irradiance effect, temperature effect, series resistance effect, I–V characteristics, P–V characteristics

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Authors: G. Singer, M. Golan

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Providing students with learning disabilities (LD) with extra time to grant them equal access to the exam is a necessary but insufficient condition to compensate for their LD; there should also be a clear indication that the additional time was actually used. For example, if students with LD use more time than students without LD and yet receive lower grades, this may indicate that a different accommodation is required. If they achieve higher grades but use the same amount of time, then the effectiveness of the accommodation has not been demonstrated. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the effect of including parameters related to LD and extended exam time, along with other commonly-used characteristics (e.g., student background and ability measures such as high-school grades), on the ability of ordinal decision-tree algorithms to predict exam performance. We use naturally-occurring data collected from hundreds of undergraduate engineering students. The sub-goals are i) to examine the improvement in prediction accuracy when the indicator of exam performance includes 'actual time used' in addition to the conventional indicator (exam grade) employed in most research; ii) to explore the effectiveness of extended exam time on exam performance for different courses and for LD students with different profiles (i.e., sets of characteristics). This is achieved by using the patterns (i.e., subgroups) generated by the algorithms to identify pairs of subgroups that differ in just one characteristic (e.g., course or type of LD) but have different outcomes in terms of exam performance (grade and time used). Since grade and time used to exhibit an ordering form, we propose a method based on ordinal decision-trees, which applies a weighted information-gain ratio (WIGR) measure for selecting the classifying attributes. Unlike other known ordinal algorithms, our method does not assume monotonicity in the data. The proposed WIGR is an extension of an information-theoretic measure, in the sense that it adjusts to the case of an ordinal target and takes into account the error severity between two different target classes. Specifically, we use ordinal C4.5, random-forest, and AdaBoost algorithms, as well as an ensemble technique composed of ordinal and non-ordinal classifiers. Firstly, we find that the inclusion of LD and extended exam-time parameters improves prediction of exam performance (compared to specifications of the algorithms that do not include these variables). Secondly, when the indicator of exam performance includes 'actual time used' together with grade (as opposed to grade only), the prediction accuracy improves. Thirdly, our subgroup analyses show clear differences in the effect of extended exam time on exam performance among different courses and different student profiles. From a methodological perspective, we find that the ordinal decision-tree based algorithms outperform their conventional, non-ordinal counterparts. Further, we demonstrate that the ensemble-based approach leverages the strengths of each type of classifier (ordinal and non-ordinal) and yields better performance than each classifier individually.

Keywords: actual exam time usage, ensemble learning, learning disabilities, ordinal classification, time extension

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Authors: Murad A. Bein

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This paper empirically examines the time-varying relationship and spillover effects between the international crude oil price and ten emerging equity markets, namely three oil-exporting countries (Brazil, Mexico, and Russia) and seven Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia). The results revealed that there are spillover effects from oil markets into almost all emerging equity markets save Slovakia. Besides, the oil supply glut had a homogenous effect on the emerging markets, both net oil-exporting, and oil-importing countries (CEE). Further, the time variance drastically increased during financial turmoil. Indeed, the time variance remained high from 2009 to 2012 in response to aggregate demand shocks (global financial crisis and Eurozone debt crisis) and quantitative easing measures. Interestingly, the time variance was slightly higher for the oil-exporting countries than for some of the CEE countries. Decision-makers in emerging economies should therefore seek policy coordination when dealing with financial turmoil.

Keywords: crude oil, spillover effects, emerging equity, time-varying, aggregate demand shock

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Authors: Zhenzhen Xu, Chunfu Shao, Shengyou Wang, Chunjiao Dong

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To improve the satisfaction of residents' travel, this paper analyzes the characteristics and influencing factors of urban residents' travel behavior. First, a Multinominal Logit Model (MNL) model is built to analyze the characteristics of residents' travel behavior, reveal the influence of individual attributes, family attributes and travel characteristics on the choice of travel mode, and identify the significant factors. Then put forward suggestions for policy improvement. Finally, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) models are introduced to evaluate the policy effect. This paper selects Futian Street in Futian District, Shenzhen City for investigation and research. The results show that gender, age, education, income, number of cars owned, travel purpose, departure time, journey time, travel distance and times all have a significant influence on residents' choice of travel mode. Based on the above results, two policy improvement suggestions are put forward from reducing public transportation and non-motor vehicle travel time, and the policy effect is evaluated. Before the evaluation, the prediction effect of MNL, SVM and MLP models was evaluated. After parameter optimization, it was found that the prediction accuracy of the three models was 72.80%, 71.42%, and 76.42%, respectively. The MLP model with the highest prediction accuracy was selected to evaluate the effect of policy improvement. The results showed that after the implementation of the policy, the proportion of public transportation in plan 1 and plan 2 increased by 14.04% and 9.86%, respectively, while the proportion of private cars decreased by 3.47% and 2.54%, respectively. The proportion of car trips decreased obviously, while the proportion of public transport trips increased. It can be considered that the measures have a positive effect on promoting green trips and improving the satisfaction of urban residents, and can provide a reference for relevant departments to formulate transportation policies.

Keywords: neural network, travel characteristics analysis, transportation choice, travel sharing rate, traffic resource allocation

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Authors: Jafar Khodagholizadeh

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In this talk, we study the tensor mode equation of perturbation in the presence of nonzero $-\Lambda$ as dark energy, whose dynamic nature depends on the Hubble parameter $ H$ and/or its time derivative. Dark energy, according to the total vacuum contribution, has little effect during the radiation-dominated era, but it reduces the squared amplitude of gravitational waves (GWs) up to $60\%$ for the wavelengths that enter the horizon during the matter-dominated era. Moreover, the observations bound on dark energy models, such as running vacuum model (RVM), generalized running vacuum model (GRVM), and generalized running vacuum subcase (GRVS), are effective in reducing the GWs’ amplitude. Although this effect is less for the wavelengths that enter the horizon at later times, this reduction is stable and permanent.

Keywords: gravitational waves, dark energy, GW's amplitude, all stage universe

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Authors: Tsai-Yun Liao, Fang-Yi Hsu

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Consumer behavior and consumption patterns have changed in reacting to the threat of COVID-19 pandemic situations. In order to explore the factors affecting customers’ purchase intention under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, this research uses structural equation modeling to explore the effect of media effect, conformity, and personality on customers’ purchase intention. Four essential objectives are investigated: how does media affect the conformity and perceived value of customers; the effect of media effect, conformity, and personality on customers’ purchase intention; the moderating effect of personality; and the mediating effect of perceived value toward purchase intention. By convenience sampling method, 428 questionnaires were collected, and the total number of valid samples was 406. Data analysis and results indicate that: (1) The media effect positively affects conformity. (2) The media effect positively affects perceived value. (3) Both conformity and perceived value positively affect purchase intention. (4) Consumer’s personality of openness to experience moderates the relationship between conformity and purchase intention. (5) Media effect affects purchase intention through the mediating effect of perceived value. This study contributes to the research by providing the factors affecting customers’ purchase intention and to the enterprises by maintaining incumbent customers and attracting potential customers.

Keywords: COVID-19, media effect, conformity, personality, purchase intention

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Authors: Siddhartha Paul, Debabrata Das

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Closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) management focuses on integrating forward and reverse flow of material as well as information to maximize value creation over the entire life-cycle of a product. Bullwhip effect in supply chain management refers to the phenomenon where a small variation in customers’ demand results in larger variation of orders at the upstream levels of supply chain. Since the quality and quantity of products returned to the collection centers (as a part of reverse logistics process) are uncertain, bullwhip effect is inevitable in CLSC. Therefore, in the present study, first, through an extensive literature survey, we identify all the important factors related to forward as well as reverse supply chain which causes bullwhip effect in CLSC. Second, we develop a system dynamics model to study the interrelationship among the factors and their effect on the performance of overall CLSC. Finally, the results of the simulation study suggest that demand forecasting, lead times, information sharing, inventory and work in progress adjustment rate, supply shortages, batch ordering, price variations, erratic human behavior, parameter correcting, delivery time delays, return rate of used products, manufacturing and remanufacturing capacity constraints are the important factors which have a significant influence on system’s performance, specifically on bullwhip effect in a CLSC.

Keywords: bullwhip effect, closed-loop supply chain, system dynamics, variance ratio

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Authors: Hatice Özbek, Caner Çil, Ahmet Rodoplu

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Automotive lighting is the leading function in the configuration of vehicle architecture. Especially headlights and taillights from external lighting functions are among the structures that determine the stylistic character of the vehicle. At the same time, the fact that lighting functions are related to many other functions brings along difficulties in design. Customers expect maximum quality from the vehicle. In these circumstances, it is necessary to make designs that aim to keep the performance of bulbs with limited working lives at the highest level. With this study, the factors that influence the working lives of filament lamps were examined and bulb explosions that can occur sooner than anticipated in the future were prevented while the vehicle was still in the design phase by determining the relations with electrical, dynamical and static variables. Especially the filaments of the bulbs used in the front lighting of the vehicle are deformed in a shorter time due to the high voltage requirement. In addition to this, rear lighting lamps vibrate as a result of the tailgate opening and closing and cause the filaments to be exposed to high stress. With this study, the findings that cause bulb explosions were evaluated. Among the most important findings: 1. The structure of the cables to the lighting functions of the vehicle and the effect of the voltage values are drawn; 2. The effect of the vibration to bulb throughout the life of the vehicle; 3 The effect of the loads carried to bulb while the vehicle doors are opened and closed. At the end of the study, the maximum performance was established in the bulb lifetimes with the optimum changes made in the vehicle architecture based on the findings obtained.

Keywords: vehicle architecture, automotive lighting functions, filament lamps, bulb lifetime

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Abdul Walusansa

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In this paper, paper notes and coins were collected from general public in Kampala City where ready-to-eat food can be served, in order to survey for bacterial contamination. The total bacterial number and potentially pathogenic organisms loading on currency were tested. All isolated potential pathogens were also tested for antibiotic resistance against four most commonly prescribed antibiotics. 1. The bacterial counts on one hundred paper notes sample were ranging between 6～10918/cm cm-2,the median was 141/ cm-2, according to the data it was much higher than credit cards and Australian notes which were made of polymer. The bacterial counts on sixty coin samples were ranging between 2～380/cm-2, much less than paper notes. 2. Coliform (65.6%), E. coli (45.9%), S. aureus (41.7%), B. cereus (67.7%), Salmonella (19.8%) were isolated on one hundred paper notes. Coliform (22.4%), E. coli (5.2%), S. aureus (24.1%), B. cereus (34.5%), Salmonella (10.3%) were isolated from sixty coin samples. These results suggested a high rate of potential pathogens contamination of paper notes than coins. 3. Antibiotic resistances are commonly in most of the pathogens isolated on currency. Ampicillin resistance was found in 60%of Staphylococcus aureus isolated on currency, as well as 76.6% of E. coil and 40% of Salmonella. Erythromycin resistance was detected in 56.6% of S. aureus and in 80.0% of E. coli. All the pathogens isolated were sensitive to Norfloxacin, Salmonella and S. aureus also sensitive to Cefaclor. In this paper, we also studied the antimicrobial capability of metal coins, coins collected from different countries were tested for the ability to inhibit the growth of E. sakazakii, S. aureus, E. coli, L. monocytogenes and S. typhimurium. 1) E. sakazakii appeared very sensitive to metal coins, the second is S. aureus, but E. coli, L. monocytogenes and S. typhimurium are more resistant to these metal coin samples. 2) Coins made of Nickel-brass alloy and Copper-nickel alloy showed a better effect in anti-microbe than other metal coins, especially the ability to inhibited the growth of E. sakazakii and S. aureus, all the inhibition zones produced on nutrient agar are more than 20.6 mm. Aluminium-bronze alloy revealed weak anti-microbe activity to S. aureus and no effect to kill other pathogens. Coins made of stainless steel also can’t resist bacteria growth. 3) Surprisingly, one cent coins of USA which were made of 97.5% Zinc and 2.5% Cu showed a significant antimicrobial capability, the average inhibition zone of these five pathogens is 45.5 mm.

Keywords: antibiotic sensitivity, bacteria, currency, coins, parasites

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Authors: Samir Hassan AL-Nesrawy, Mohammed Al-Maamori, A. S. Hassani

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Rebound resilience for various elastomeric composites has been measured by Tripsometer devise, in order to investigate the effect of mix of C.B & Reclaim loading on elastomeric materials to absorb or damping vibration or shocks by fenders uses in the Iraqi berths. After having been certain about attaining the physical and mechanical properties of the new samples which are similar to the levels of their standard ones, damping properties for the new samples have been measured and compared with those of the standard fenders. The new samples included four rubber blends from (SBR/NR/BR-cis) and four loading levels of mix carbon black (type N-375) and reclaim to become sixteen compound contain SBR(100,60,60,60), NR(0,10,20,30), BRcis(30,20,10,0) and loading level for C.B, Reclaim (10,20,30,40). Damping measurements have been carried out by the method Free Vibration Resilience Pendulum method (by using Wallace R2-Dunlop Tripsometer) and from this Resilience Pendulum method, both the resilience percentage value (R%) and time decay (t0) have been measured at 50oC. We found that the results of this method proved that the increment of C.B, Reclaim level in these robber composite lead to decreasing the resiliency (R%) and damping time.

Keywords: damping materials, carbon black mixture effect, mechanical properties, rubber blends SBR/NR/BRcis

Procedia PDF Downloads 453