Search results for: continuous assessment

Authors: Pius W. Molo Chin

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Real life problems such as the Huxley equation are always modeled as nonlinear differential equations. These problems need accurate and reliable methods for their solutions. In this paper, we propose a nonstandard finite difference method in time and the Galerkin combined with the compactness method in the space variables. This coupled method, is used to analyze a two dimensional Huxley equation for the existence and uniqueness of the continuous solution of the problem in appropriate spaces to be defined. We proceed to design a numerical scheme consisting of the aforementioned method and show that the scheme is stable. We further show that the stable scheme converges with the rate which is optimal in both the L2 as well as the H1-norms. Furthermore, we show that the scheme replicates the decaying qualities of the exact solution. Numerical experiments are presented with the help of an example to justify the validity of the designed scheme.

Keywords: Huxley equations, non-standard finite difference method, Galerkin method, optimal rate of convergence

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Authors: Ahmed A. A. Fadol, Guangji Tong, Wlaa Mohamed

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This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of food insecurity in Sudan, focusing on consumption patterns and their implications, employing the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) assessment framework. Years of conflict and economic instability have driven large segments of the population in Sudan into crisis levels of acute food insecurity according to the (IPC). A substantial number of people are estimated to currently face emergency conditions, with an additional sizeable portion categorized under less severe but still extreme hunger levels. In this study, we explore the multifaceted nature of food insecurity in Sudan, considering its historical, political, economic, and social dimensions. An analysis of consumption patterns and trends was conducted, taking into account cultural influences, dietary shifts, and demographic changes. Furthermore, we employ logistic regression and random forest analysis to identify significant independent variables influencing food security status in Sudan. Random forest clearly outperforms logistic regression in terms of area under curve (AUC), accuracy, precision and recall. Forward projections of the IPC for Sudan estimate that 15 million individuals are anticipated to face Crisis level (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity conditions between October 2023 and February 2024. Of this, 60% are concentrated in Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, and Khartoum State, with Greater Darfur alone representing 29% of this total. These findings emphasize the urgent need for both short-term humanitarian aid and long-term strategies to address Sudan's deepening food insecurity crisis.

Keywords: food insecurity, consumption patterns, logistic regression, random forest analysis

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Authors: Fay A. Al-Khalifa, Fariel Khan, Anamika Jiwane

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Responding to some governmentally enforced building sustainability criteria is today becoming an unavoidable challenge to the real estate development industry and is no longer an extra that allows developers to gain competitive advantages. Previous studies suggested that using green technologies, if done under the right circumstances, could lead to positive incentives, tax breaks, higher rents, cost savings and higher property values in the long run. This is all in addition to the marketing benefits of the green label. There are, however, still countries, mostly in the developing world, that lack the implementation of such sustainability guidelines and assessment tools. This research aspires to investigate the market’s readiness to implement such criteria, its perception of sustainable architecture and building users motivation to use and/or invest in sustainable buildings. The study showed via a survey administered to 385 inhabitants and investors in commercial real estate in Bahrain that the respondents have a limited understanding of the benefits of green buildings and are unlikely to want to occupy or invest in a green building under the current social, economic and industrial conditions. Reliability of green technology, effectiveness, price and the questionable long-term financial benefits were among the major concerns. The study suggests that the promotion of sustainable architecture should respond to the current market concerns in a more direct way to trigger an interest in investors and users of commercial real estate project. This stimulated attention should consequently encourage developers to consider incorporating sustainability measures, apply for green building assessment programs and invest in green technologies, all of which need higher capitals that are nonetheless financially justifiable on the long run.

Keywords: investment, real estate, sustainability, clients perception, Bahrain

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Authors: Nassereddine Attari

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Each operation to strengthen or repair requires special consideration and requires the use of methods, tools and techniques appropriate to the situation and specific problems of each of the constructs. The aim of this paper is to study the pathology of building of reinforced concrete towards the earthquake and the vulnerability assessment using a non-linear Pushover analysis and to develop curves for a medium capacity building in order to estimate the damaged condition of the building.

Keywords: pushover analysis, earthquake, damage, strengthening

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Authors: Fatemah Al-Baroud, Sudharani Shreenivas Kshatriya

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Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) is one of the companies for gas & oil production in Kuwait. The oil and gas industry is truly global; with operations conducted in every corner of the globe, the global community will rely heavily on oil and gas supplies. KOC has made many commitments to protect all due to KOC’s operations and operational releases. As per KOC’s strategy, the substantial increase in production activities will bring many challenges in managing various environmental hazards and stresses in the company. In order to handle those environmental challenges, the need of implementing effectively the health, safety, and environmental management system (HSEMS) is significant. And by implementing the HSEMS system properly, the environmental aspects of the activities, products, and services were identified, evaluated, and controlled in order to (i) Comply with local regulatory and other obligatory requirements; (ii) Comply with company policy and business requirements; and (iii) Reduce adverse environmental impact, including adverse impact to company reputation. Assessments for the Jurassic Production Facilities are being carried out as a part of the KOC HSEMS procedural requirement and monitoring the implementation of the relevant HSEMS procedures in the facilities. The assessments have been done by conducting series of theme audits using KOC’s audit protocol at JPFs. The objectives of the audits are to evaluate the compliance of the facilities towards the implementation of environmental procedures and the status of the KEPA requirement at all JPFs. The list of the facilities that were covered during the theme audit program are the following: (1) Jurassic Production Facility (JPF) – Sabriya (2) Jurassic Production Facility (JPF) – East Raudhatian (3) Jurassic Production Facility (JPF) – West Raudhatian (4)Early Production Facility (EPF 50). The auditing process comprehensively focuses on the application of KOC HSE MS procedures at JPFs and their ability to reduce the resultant negative impacts on the environment from the operations. Number of findings and observations were noted and highlighted in the audit reports and sent to all concerned controlling teams. The results of these audits indicated that the facilities, in general view, were in line with KOC HSE Procedures, and there were commitments in documenting all the HSE issues in the right records and plans. Further, implemented several control measures at JPFs that minimized/reduced the environmental impact, such as SRU were installed for sulphur recovery. Future scope and monitoring audit after a sufficient period of time will be carried out in conjunction with the controlling teams in order to verify the current status of the recommendations and evaluate the contractors' performance towards the required actions in preserving the environment.

Keywords: assessment of the environmental compliance, environmental and social impact assessment, kuwait environment public authority regulations, health, safety and environment management procedures, jurassic production facilities

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Authors: Frezer Alem Kebede

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The notion of viewing ICT as merely support for the business process has shifted towards viewing ICT as a critical business enabler. As such, the need for ICT devices has increased, contributing to high electronic equipment acquisition and disposal. Hence, its use and disposal must be seen in light of environmental sustainability, i.e., in terms of green use and disposal. However, there are limited studies on green Use and Disposal framework to be used as guiding lens by organizations in developing countries. And this study endeavors to address that need taking one of the largest multinational ICT intensive company in the country. The design and development of this framework passed through several stages, initially factors affecting green use and disposal were identified after quantitative and qualitative data analysis then there were multiple brainstorming sessions for the design enhancement as participative modelling was employed. Given the difference in scope and magnitude of the challenges identified, the proposed framework approaches green use and disposal in four imperatives; strategically, tactically, operationally and through continuous improvement.

Keywords: energy efficiency, green disposal, green ICT, green use, green use and disposal framework, sustainability

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Authors: Celal Dudak, Aslı Utku, Burak Yağlioğlu

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Uninterrupted and continuous satellite communication through the whole orbit time is becoming more indispensable every day. Data relay systems are developed and built for various high/low data rate information exchanges like TDRSS of USA and EDRSS of Europe. In these missions, a couple of task-dedicated communication satellites exist. In this regard, for Turkey a data relay system is attempted to be defined exchanging low data rate information (i.e. TTC) for Earth-observing LEO satellites appointing commercial GEO communication satellites all over the world. First, justification of this attempt is given, demonstrating duration enhancements in the link. Discussion of preference of RF communication is, also, given instead of laser communication. Then, preferred communication GEOs – including TURKSAT4A already belonging to Turkey- are given, together with the coverage enhancements through STK simulations and the corresponding link budget. Also, a block diagram of the communication system is given on the LEO satellite.

Keywords: communication, GEO satellite, data relay system, coverage

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Authors: Karthik K. R, Viswanath V, Asraff A. K

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The first stage of a new-generation launch vehicle of ISRO makes use of large pressure vessels made of Aluminium alloy AA2219 to store fuel and oxidizer. These vessels have many weld joints that may contain cracks or crack-like defects during their fabrication. These defects may propagate across the vessel during pressure testing or while in service under the influence of tensile stresses leading to catastrophe. Though ductile materials exhibit significant stable crack growth prior to failure, it is not generally acceptable for an aerospace component. There is a need to predict the initiation of stable crack growth. The structural integrity of the vessel from fracture considerations can be studied by constructing the Failure Assessment Diagram (FAD) that accounts for both brittle fracture and plastic collapse. Critical crack sizes of the pressure vessel may be highly conservative if it is predicted from FAD alone. If the J-R curve for material under consideration is available apriori, the critical crack sizes can be predicted to a certain degree of accuracy. In this paper, a novel approach is proposed to predict the integrity of a weld in a pressure vessel made of AA2219 material. Fracture parameter ‘J-integral’ at the crack front, evaluated through finite element analyses, is used in the new procedure. Based on the simulation of tension tests carried out on SCT specimens by NASA, a cut-off value of J-integral value (J?ᵤₜ_ₒ??) is finalised. For the pressure vessel, J-integral at the crack front is evaluated through FE simulations incorporating different surface cracks at long seam weld in a cylinder and in dome petal welds. The obtained J-integral, at vessel level, is compared with a value of J?ᵤₜ_ₒ??, and the integrity of vessel weld in the presence of the surface crack is firmed up. The advantage of this methodology is that if SCT test data of any metal is available, the critical crack size in hardware fabricated using that material can be predicted to a better level of accuracy.

Keywords: FAD, j-integral, fracture, surface crack

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Authors: Oto J. Okwu, Ornan Henry, Victor A. Otene

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The agricultural sector contributes a great deal to the sustenance of Nigeria’s food security and economy, with an attendant impact on rural development. In spite of the relatively high number of farmers in the country, self-sufficiency in food production is still a challenge. Farmers are faced with myriad problems which hinder their production efficiency, one of which is their access to agricultural inputs required for optimum production. To meet the challenges faced by farmers, the government at the federal level has come up with many agricultural policies, one of which is the Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA). The Growth Enhancement Support Scheme (GESS) is one of the critical components of ATA, which is aimed at ensuring the effective distribution of agricultural inputs delivered directly to farmers, and at a regulated cost. After about 8 years of launching this policy, it will be necessary to carry out an assessment of GESS and determine the impact it has made on rural farmers with respect to their access to farm inputs. This study was carried out to assess the Growth Enhancement Support Scheme (GESS) in Adamawa State, Nigeria. Crop farmers who registered under the GESS in Adamawa State, Nigeria, formed the population for the study. Primary data for the study were obtained through a survey, and the use of a structured questionnaire. A sample size of 167 respondents was selected using multi-stage, purposive, and random sampling techniques. The validity and reliability of the research instrument (questionnaire) were obtained through pilot testing and test-retest method, respectively. The objectives of the study were to determine the difference in the level of access to agricultural inputs before and after GESS, determine the difference in cost of agricultural inputs before and after GESS, and to determine the challenges faced by rural farmers in accessing agricultural inputs through GESS. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were used in analyzing the collected data. Specifically, Mann-Whitney, student t-test, and factor analysis were used to test the stated hypotheses. Research findings revealed there was a significant difference in the level of access to farm inputs after the introduction of GESS (Z=14.216). Also, there was a significant difference in the cost of agro-inputs after the introduction of GESS (Pr |T| > |t|= 0.0000). The challenges faced by respondents in accessing agro-inputs through GESS were administrative and technical in nature. Based on the findings of the research, it was recommended that efforts be made by the government to sustain the GESS, as it has significantly improved the level of farmers’ access to agricultural inputs and has reduced the cost of agro-inputs, while administrative challenges faced by the respondents in accessing inputs be addressed by the government, and extension agents assist the farmers to overcome the technical challenges they face in accessing inputs.

Keywords: agricultural policy, agro-inputs, assessment, growth enhancement support scheme, rural farmers

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Authors: Sabo Elizabeth

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Electronic learning is increasingly popular learning approach in higher educational institutions due to vast growth of internet technology. This approach is important in human capital development. An investigation of open distance and e-learning facilities and information need by open and distance learning students was carried out in Jalingo, Nigeria. Structured questionnaires were administered to 70 registered ODL students of the NOUN. Information sourced from the respondents covered demographic, economic and institutional variables. Data collected for demographic variables were computed as frequency count and percentages. Assessment of the effectiveness of ODL facilities and information need among open and distance learning students was computed on a three or four point Likert Rating Scale. Findings indicated that there are more men compared to women. A large proportion of the respondents are married and there are more matured students in ODL compared to the youth. A high proportion of the ODL students obtained qualifications higher than the secondary school certificate. The proportion of computer literate ODL students was high, and large number of the students does not own a laptop computer. Inadequate e -books and reference materials, internet gadgets and inadequate books (hard copies) and reference material are factors that limit utilization of e-learning facilities in the study areas. Inadequate computer facilities and power back up caused inconveniences and delay in administering and use of e learning facilities. To a high extent, open and distance learning students needed information on university time table and schedule of activities, availability and access to books (hard and e-books) and reference materials. The respondents emphasized that contact with course coordinators via internet will provide a better learning and academic performance.

Keywords: open and distance learning, information required, electronic books, internet gadgets, Likert scale test

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Authors: Teresa Carlone, Matteo Mannocchi

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In the last decade, a growing number of International Organizations are pushing toward green solutions for adaptation to climate change. This is particularly true in the field of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and land planning, where Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) had been sponsored through funding programs and planning tools. Stakeholder engagement and co-creation of NBS is growing as a practice and research field in environmental projects, fostering the consolidation of a multidisciplinary socio-ecological approach in addressing hydro-meteorological risk. Even thou research and financial interests are constantly spread, the NBS mainstreaming process is still at an early stage as innovative concepts and practices make it difficult to be fully accepted and adopted by a multitude of different actors to produce wide scale societal change. The monitoring and impact evaluation of stakeholders’ participation in these processes represent a crucial aspect and should be seen as a continuous and integral element of the co-creation approach. However, setting up a fit for purpose-monitoring strategy for different contexts is not an easy task, and multiple challenges emerge. In this scenario, the Horizon 2020 OPERANDUM project, designed to address the major hydro-meteorological risks that negatively affect European rural and natural territories through the co-design, co-deployment, and assessment of Nature-based Solution, represents a valid case study to test a monitoring strategy from which set a broader, general and scalable monitoring framework. Applying a participative monitoring methodology, based on selected indicators list that combines quantitative and qualitative data developed within the activity of the project, the paper proposes an experimental in-depth analysis of the stakeholder engagement impact in the co-creation process of NBS. The main focus will be to spot and analyze which factors increase knowledge, social acceptance, and mainstreaming of NBS, promoting also a base-experience guideline to could be integrated with the stakeholder engagement strategy in current and future similar strongly collaborative approach-based environmental projects, such as OPERANDUM. Measurement will be carried out through survey submitted at a different timescale to the same sample (stakeholder: policy makers, business, researchers, interest groups). Changes will be recorded and analyzed through focus groups in order to highlight causal explanation and to assess the proposed list of indicators to steer the conduction of similar activities in other projects and/or contexts. The idea of the paper is to contribute to the construction of a more structured and shared corpus of indicators that can support the evaluation of the activities of involvement and participation of various levels of stakeholders in the co-production, planning, and implementation of NBS to address climate change challenges.

Keywords: co-creation and collaborative planning, monitoring, nature-based solution, participation & inclusion, stakeholder engagement

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Authors: Moien Mojabi, Aurelien Hospital, Daniel Potts, Chris Young, Albert Leung

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The wave analysis is an integral part of the hydrotechnical assessment carried out during the permitting and design phases for coastal structures, such as marinas. This analysis aims in quantifying: i) the Suitability of the coastal structure design against Small Craft Harbour wave tranquility safety criterion; ii) Potential environmental impacts of the structure (e.g., effect on wave, flow, and sediment transport); iii) Mooring and dock design and iv) Requirements set by regulatory agency’s (e.g., WSA section 11 application). While a complex three-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling approach can be applied on large-scale projects, the need for an efficient and reliable wave analysis method suitable for smaller scale marina projects was identified. As a result, Tetra Tech has developed and applied an integrated analysis framework (hereafter TT approach), which takes the advantage of the state-of-the-art numerical models while preserving the level of simplicity that fits smaller scale projects. The present paper aims to describe the TT approach and highlight the key advantages of using this integrated framework in lake marina projects. The core of this methodology is made by integrating wind, water level, bathymetry, and structure geometry data. To respond to the needs of specific projects, several add-on modules have been added to the core of the TT approach. The main advantages of this method over the simplified analytical approaches are i) Accounting for the proper physics of the lake through the modelling of the entire lake (capturing real lake geometry) instead of a simplified fetch approach; ii) Providing a more realistic representation of the waves by modelling random waves instead of monochromatic waves; iii) Modelling wave-structure interaction (e.g. wave transmission/reflection application for floating structures and piles amongst others); iv) Accounting for wave interaction with the lakebed (e.g. bottom friction, refraction, and breaking); v) Providing the inputs for flow and sediment transport assessment at the project site; vi) Taking in consideration historical and geographical variations of the wind field; and vii) Independence of the scale of the reservoir under study. Overall, in comparison with simplified analytical approaches, this integrated framework provides a more realistic and reliable estimation of wave parameters (and its spatial distribution) in lake marinas, leading to a realistic hydrotechnical assessment accessible to any project size, from the development of a new marina to marina expansion and pile replacement. Tetra Tech has successfully utilized this approach since many years in the Okanagan area.

Keywords: wave modelling, wind-wave, extreme value analysis, marina

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Authors: Sthanu Mahadev, Wen Chan, Melanie Lim

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Anisotropy dominated continuous-fiber composite materials have garnered attention in numerous mechanical and aerospace structural applications. Tailored mechanical properties in advanced composites can exhibit superiority in terms of stiffness-to-weight ratio, strength-to-weight ratio, low-density characteristics, coupled with significant improvements in fatigue resistance as opposed to metal structure counterparts. Extensive research has demonstrated their core potential as more than just mere lightweight substitutes to conventional materials. Prior work done by Mahadev and Chan focused on formulating a modified composite shell theory based prognosis methodology for investigating the structural response of thin-walled circular cylindrical shell type composite configurations under in-plane mechanical loads respectively. The prime motivation to develop this theory stemmed from its capability to generate simple yet accurate closed-form analytical results that can efficiently characterize circular composite shell construction. It showcased the development of a novel mathematical framework to analytically identify the location of the centroid for thin-walled, open cross-section, curved composite shells that were characterized by circumferential arc angle, thickness-to-mean radius ratio, and total laminate thickness. Ply stress variations for curved cylindrical shells were analytically examined under the application of centric tensile and bending loading. This work presents a cost-effective, small-platform experimental methodology by taking advantage of the full-field measurement capability of digital image correlation (DIC) for an accurate assessment of key mechanical parameters such as in-plane mechanical stresses and strains, centroid location etc. Mechanical property measurement of advanced composite materials can become challenging due to their anisotropy and complex failure mechanisms. Full-field displacement measurements are well suited for characterizing the mechanical properties of composite materials because of the complexity of their deformation. This work encompasses the fabrication of a set of curved cylindrical shell coupons, the design and development of a novel test-fixture design and an innovative experimental methodology that demonstrates the capability to very accurately predict the location of centroid in such curved composite cylindrical strips via employing a DIC based strain measurement technique. Error percentage difference between experimental centroid measurements and previously estimated analytical centroid results are observed to be in good agreement. The developed analytical modified-shell theory provides the capability to understand the fundamental behavior of thin-walled cylindrical shells and offers the potential to generate novel avenues to understand the physics of such structures at a laminate level.

Keywords: anisotropy, composites, curved cylindrical shells, digital image correlation

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Authors: Mehdi Habibagahi, Shami Nejadi, Ata Aminfar

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A significant degradation factor that impacts the durability of concrete structures is the alkali-silica reaction. Engineers are frequently charged with the challenges of conducting a thorough safety assessment of concrete structures that have been impacted by ASR. The alkali-silica reaction has a major influence on the structural capacities of structures. In most cases, the reduction in compressive strength, tensile strength, and modulus of elasticity is expressed as a function of free expansion and crack widths. Predicting the effect of ASR on flexural strength is also relevant. In this paper, a nonlinear three-dimensional (3D) finite-element model was proposed to describe the flexural strength degradation induced byASR.Initial strains, initial stresses, initial cracks, and deterioration of material characteristics were all considered ASR factors in this model. The effects of ASR on structural performance were evaluated by focusing on initial flexural stiffness, force–deformation curve, and load-carrying capacity. Degradation of concrete mechanical properties was correlated with ASR growth using material test data conducted at Tech Lab, UTS, and implemented into the FEM for various expansions. The finite element study revealed a better understanding of the ASR-affected RC beam's failure mechanism and capacity reduction as a function of ASR expansion. Furthermore, in this study, decreasing of the residual mechanical properties due to ASRisreviewed, using as input data for the FEM model. Finally, analysis techniques and a comparison of the analysis and the experiment results are discussed. Verification is also provided through analyses of reinforced concrete beams with behavior governed by either flexural or shear mechanisms.

Keywords: alkali-silica reaction, analysis, assessment, finite element, nonlinear analysis, reinforced concrete

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Authors: Tayib Bromand, Keisuke Sato

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This paper presents the introduction to current water balance and climate change assessment in the Kabul river basin. The historical and future impacts of climate change on different components of water resources and hydrology in the Kabul river basin. The eastern part of Afghanistan, the Kabul river basin was chosen due to rapid population growth and land degradation to quantify the potential influence of Gobal Climate Change on its hydrodynamic characteristics. Luck of observed meteorological data was the main limitation of present research, few existed precipitation stations in the plain area of Kabul basin selected to compare with TRMM precipitation records, the result has been evaluated satisfactory based on regression and normal ratio methods. So the TRMM daily precipitation and NCEP temperature data set applied in the SWAT model to evaluate water balance for 2008 to 2012. Middle of the twenty – first century (2064) selected as the target period to assess impacts of climate change on hydrology aspects in the Kabul river basin. For this purpose three emission scenarios, A2, A1B and B1 and four GCMs, such as MIROC 3.2 (Med), CGCM 3.1 (T47), GFDL-CM2.0 and CNRM-CM3 have been selected, to estimate the future initial conditions of the proposed model. The outputs of the model compared and calibrated based on (R2) satisfactory. The assessed hydrodynamic characteristics and precipitation pattern. The results show that there will be significant impacts on precipitation patter such as decreasing of snowfall in the mountainous area of the basin in the Winter season due to increasing of 2.9°C mean annual temperature and land degradation due to deforestation.

Keywords: climate change, emission scenarios, hydrological components, Kabul river basin, SWAT model

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Authors: Shenlun Chen, Leonard Wee

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Tumor grading is an essential reference for colorectal cancer (CRC) staging and survival prognostication. The widely used World Health Organization (WHO) grading system defines histological grade of CRC adenocarcinoma based on the density of glandular formation on whole slide images (WSI). Tumors are classified as well-, moderately-, poorly- or un-differentiated depending on the percentage of the tumor that is gland forming; >95%, 50-95%, 5-50% and <5%, respectively. However, manually grading WSIs is a time-consuming process and can cause observer error due to subjective judgment and unnoticed regions. Furthermore, pathologists’ grading is usually coarse while a finer and continuous differentiation grade may help to stratifying CRC patients better. In this study, a deep learning based automatic differentiation grading algorithm was developed and evaluated by survival analysis. Firstly, a gland segmentation model was developed for segmenting gland structures. Gland regions of WSIs were delineated and used for differentiation annotating. Tumor regions were annotated by experienced pathologists into high-, medium-, low-differentiation and normal tissue, which correspond to tumor with clear-, unclear-, no-gland structure and non-tumor, respectively. Then a differentiation prediction model was developed on these human annotations. Finally, all enrolled WSIs were processed by gland segmentation model and differentiation prediction model. The differentiation grade can be calculated by deep learning models’ prediction of tumor regions and tumor differentiation status according to WHO’s defines. If multiple WSIs were possessed by a patient, the highest differentiation grade was chosen. Additionally, the differentiation grade was normalized into scale between 0 to 1. The Cancer Genome Atlas, project COAD (TCGA-COAD) project was enrolled into this study. For the gland segmentation model, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) reached 0.981 and accuracy reached 0.932 in validation set. For the differentiation prediction model, ROC reached 0.983, 0.963, 0.963, 0.981 and accuracy reached 0.880, 0.923, 0.668, 0.881 for groups of low-, medium-, high-differentiation and normal tissue in validation set. Four hundred and one patients were selected after removing WSIs without gland regions and patients without follow up data. The concordance index reached to 0.609. Optimized cut off point of 51% was found by “Maxstat” method which was almost the same as WHO system’s cut off point of 50%. Both WHO system’s cut off point and optimized cut off point performed impressively in Kaplan-Meier curves and both p value of logrank test were below 0.005. In this study, gland structure of WSIs and differentiation status of tumor regions were proven to be predictable through deep leaning method. A finer and continuous differentiation grade can also be automatically calculated through above models. The differentiation grade was proven to stratify CAC patients well in survival analysis, whose optimized cut off point was almost the same as WHO tumor grading system. The tool of automatically calculating differentiation grade may show potential in field of therapy decision making and personalized treatment.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, differentiation, survival analysis, tumor grading

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Authors: Li Yin, Xiaoqin Wang

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Background and purpose: Cancer diagnosis is part of a complex stochastic process, in which patients' personal and social characteristics influence the choice of diagnosing methods, diagnosing methods, in turn, influence the initial assessment of cancer stage, the initial assessment, in turn, influences the choice of treating methods, and treating methods in turn influence cancer outcomes such as cancer survival. To evaluate diagnosing methods, one needs to estimate and test the causal effect of a regime of cancer diagnosis and treatments. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to estimate and test these causal effects via point effects. The purpose of the work is to estimate and test causal effects under various regimes of cancer diagnosis and treatments via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The cancer stage has influences from earlier diagnosis as well as on subsequent treatments. As a consequence, it is highly difficult to estimate and test the causal effects via standard parameters, that is, the conditional survival given all stationary covariates, diagnosing methods, cancer stage and prognosis factors, treating methods. Instead of standard parameters, we use the point effects of cancer diagnosis and treatments to estimate and test causal effects under various regimes of cancer diagnosis and treatments. We are able to use familiar methods in the framework of single-point causal inference to accomplish the task. Achievements: we have applied this method to stomach cancer survival from a clinical study in Sweden. We have studied causal effects under various regimes, including the optimal regime of diagnosis and treatments and the effect moderation of the causal effect by age and gender.

Keywords: cancer diagnosis, causal effect, point effect, G-formula, sequential causal effect

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Authors: Ousmane Sarr

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The Senegalese coasts have high productivity of fishery resources due to the frequency of intense up-welling system that occurs along its coast, caused by the maritime trade winds making its waters nutrients rich. Fishing plays a primordial role in Senegal's socioeconomic plans and food security. However, a global diagnosis of the Senegalese maritime fishing sector has highlighted the challenges this sector encounters. Among these concerns, some significant stocks, a priority target for artisanal fishing, need further assessment. If no efforts are made in this direction, most stock will be overexploited or even in decline. It is in this context that this research was initiated. This investigation aimed to apply a multi-modal approach (LBB, Catch-only-based CMSY model and its most recent version (CMSY++); JABBA, and JABBA-Select) to assess the stock of Atlantic bonito, Sarda sarda (Bloch, 1793) in the Senegalese Exclusive Economic Zone (SEEZ). Available catch, effort, and size data from Atlantic bonito over 15 years (2004-2018) were used to calculate the nominal and standardized CPUE, size-frequency distribution, and length at retentions (50 % and 95 % selectivity) of the species. These relevant results were employed as input parameters for stock assessment models mentioned above to define the stock status of this species in this region of the Atlantic Ocean. The LBB model indicated an Atlantic bonito healthy stock status with B/BMSY values ranging from 1.3 to 1.6 and B/B0 values varying from 0.47 to 0.61 of the main scenarios performed (BON_AFG_CL, BON_GN_Length, and BON_PS_Length). The results estimated by LBB are consistent with those obtained by CMSY. The CMSY model results demonstrate that the SEEZ Atlantic bonito stock is in a sound condition in the final year of the main scenarios analyzed (BON, BON-bt, BON-GN-bt, and BON-PS-bt) with sustainable relative stock biomass (B2018/BMSY = 1.13 to 1.3) and fishing pressure levels (F2018/FMSY= 0.52 to 1.43). The B/BMSY and F/FMSY results for the JABBA model ranged between 2.01 to 2.14 and 0.47 to 0.33, respectively. In contrast, The estimated B/BMSY and F/FMSY for JABBA-Select ranged from 1.91 to 1.92 and 0.52 to 0.54. The Kobe plots results of the base case scenarios ranged from 75% to 89% probability in the green area, indicating sustainable fishing pressure and an Atlantic bonito healthy stock size capable of producing high yields close to the MSY. Based on the stock assessment results, this study highlighted scientific advice for temporary management measures. This study suggests an improvement of the selectivity parameters of longlines and purse seines and a temporary prohibition of the use of sleeping nets in the fishery for the Atlantic bonito stock in the SEEZ based on the results of the length-base models. Although these actions are temporary, they can be essential to reduce or avoid intense pressure on the Atlantic bonito stock in the SEEZ. However, it is necessary to establish harvest control rules to provide coherent and solid scientific information that leads to appropriate decision-making for rational and sustainable exploitation of Atlantic bonito in the SEEZ and the Eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Keywords: multi-model approach, stock assessment, atlantic bonito, healthy stock, sustainable, SEEZ, temporary management measures

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Authors: Jakub Zembrzuski, Bartosz Sobczyk, Mikołaj MIśkiewicz

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Besides designing new constructions, engineers all over the world must face another problem – maintenance, repairs, and assessment of the technical condition of existing bridges. To solve more complex issues, it is necessary to be familiar with the theory of finite element method and to have access to the software that provides sufficient tools which to enable create of sometimes significantly advanced numerical models. The paper includes a brief assessment of the technical condition, a description of the in situ non-destructive testing carried out and the FEM models created for global and local analysis. In situ testing was performed using strain gauges and displacement sensors. Numerical models were created using various software and numerical modeling techniques. Particularly noteworthy is the method of modeling riveted joints of the crossbeam of the viaduct. It is a simplified method that consists of the use of only basic numerical tools such as beam and shell finite elements, constraints, and simplified boundary conditions (fixed support and symmetry). The results of the numerical analyses were presented and discussed. It is clearly explained why the structure did not fail, despite the fact that the weld of the deck plate completely failed. A further research problem that was solved was to determine the cause of the rapid increase in values on the stress diagram in the cross-section of the transverse section. The problems were solved using the solely mentioned, simplified method of modeling riveted joints, which demonstrates that it is possible to solve such problems without access to sophisticated software that enables to performance of the advanced nonlinear analysis. Moreover, the obtained results are of great importance in the field of assessing the operation of bridge structures with an orthotropic plate.

Keywords: bridge, diagnostics, FEM simulations, failure, NDT, in situ testing

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Authors: Farida Habib, Haya Alfozan, Eman Miligi, Najla Alotaibi

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Background: Women’s satisfaction with maternity services, especially care during labor and birth, has become highly significant to healthcare providers, administrators, and policymakers. Purpose: The aims of this study were to assess maternal satisfaction regarding the quality of care during labor and to compare the level of maternal satisfaction between women who delivered by physicians and those delivered by midwives. Methodology: A descriptive, cross-sectional, correlational design was used. A convenient sample of 180 low-risk cases of immediate postpartum women who delivered at King Abdul-Aziz medical city was recruited. Women whose babies were diagnosed with serious health problems were excluded from the study. Data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire. The validity and reliability of the questionnaire were ensured. The questionnaire included three parts, namely: demographics data, medical history, and obstetrical history, and the last part is the satisfaction assessment tool. Ethical confederations were ensured. Maternal satisfaction during labor was classified in terms of health care, health workers' communication, and the environment. Results: Regarding health care, women were highly satisfied with care received from nurse (M = 4.21 + 0.88), medical care received (M = 4.17 + 0.79), and comfort techniques (M = 4.04 + 0.91). Regarding health workers' communication, women were highly satisfied with the provider to treat with dignity and respect (M = 4.03 + 0.91) and orientation to the toilet, bathroom, washing area (M = 4.00 + 0.93). Regarding the environment, women were highly satisfied with the experience of their baby's birth (M = 4.18 + 0.98) and supplies with drugs and supplies (M = 4.09 + 0.97). There was no statistically significant difference in maternal satisfaction between women who delivered by physicians and those delivered by midwives. Conclusion: Women were generally satisfied with their labor and delivery experience. There was no difference in maternal satisfaction on the labor process between women who delivered by physicians and those delivered by midwives.

Keywords: maternity, satisfaction, labor, delivery

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Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

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The main objective of this work is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in two key steps of seismic hazard and risk assessment of different types of structures. The first step is the development of ground-motion models, which are used for forecasting ground-motion intensity measures (IM) given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition for future events. IMs such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available. Second, it is investigated how machine learning techniques could be beneficial for developing probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDMs), which provide the relationship between the structural demand responses (e.g., component deformations, accelerations, internal forces, etc.) and the ground motion IMs. In the risk framework, such models are used to develop fragility curves estimating exceeding probability of damage for pre-defined limit states, and therefore, control the reliability of the predictions in the risk assessment. In this study, machine learning algorithms like artificial neural network, random forest, and support vector machine are adopted and trained on the demand parameters to derive PSDMs for them. It is observed that such models can provide more accurate estimates of prediction in relatively shorter about of time compared to conventional methods. Moreover, they can be used for sensitivity analysis of fragility curves with respect to many modeling parameters without necessarily requiring more intense numerical response-history analysis.

Keywords: artificial neural network, machine learning, random forest, seismic risk analysis, seismic hazard analysis, support vector machine

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Authors: Ayman M. Mansour

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In this paper, we propose a multi-agent intelligent system that is used for monitoring the health conditions of elderly people. Monitoring the health condition of elderly people is a complex problem that involves different medical units and requires continuous monitoring. Such expert system is highly needed in rural areas because of inadequate number of available specialized physicians or nurses. Such monitoring must have autonomous interactions between these medical units in order to be effective. A multi-agent system is formed by a community of agents that exchange information and proactively help one another to achieve the goal of elderly monitoring. The agents in the developed system are equipped with intelligent decision maker that arms them with the rule-based reasoning capability that can assist the physicians in making decisions regarding the medical condition of elderly people.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, inference system, monitoring system, multi-agent system

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Authors: Babak Nemat Shahrbabaki, Arezo Fallahi, Masoomeh Hashemian

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Introduction: Health and safety are basic components of civil right. Health care systems in different countries were influenced by political, economic and cultural circumstances. In order to health services to people, these systems are organized with different forms, methods such as: prevention, treatment and rehabilitation and in this among, public satisfaction with the services provided is important. This study aimed to determine client satisfaction with family physician and relationship with physician’ demographic variables in health care centers of Jiroft county, Iran. Methods: This is a descriptive-analytical study. The collective data tool was a self-made questionnaire with two parts. The first part comprised demographic characteristics, and the second part contained 11 items for the assessment of satisfaction with family physician from different aspects. In addition, questionnaire, reliability and validity were confirmed. Random simple sampling method was used to determine samples. 234 people referred to the health centers filled questionnaire. The data were analyzed using SPSS software, and inferential statistical analysis was performed. Findings: The majority of the study population were women, married, and aged between 18 and 62 years (mean= 30.09±10.71). Total average satisfaction score was 42.63±3.68. Overall satisfaction averages were 9.47% very high, 30.04% high, 33.09% moderate, 15.12% low, and 12.28% very low. Except lodge on of family physician none of physician’ demographic variables did not effect on satisfaction index. Discussion & Conclusion: The Results showed that mean of satisfaction indexes of family physicians was high and lodge on of family physician effected on this index. Informing people about the main goals of family-doctor program will help to promote the quality of program and increase people satisfaction.

Keywords: family physician program, satisfaction, health-care centers, client

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Authors: Ashit Syngle, Inderjit Verma, Pawan Krishan

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Therapeutic approaches used previously relied on disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) that had only partial clinical benefit and were associated with significant toxicity. Spironolactone, an oral aldosterone antagonist, suppresses inflammatory mediators. Clinical efficacy of spironolactone compared with placebo in patients with active psoriatic arthritis despite treatment with prior traditional DMARDs. In the 24-week, placebo-controlled study patients (n=31) were randomized to placebo and spironolactone (2 m/kg/day). Patients on background concurrent DMARDs continued stable doses (methotrexate, leflunomide, and/or sulfasalazine). Primary outcome measures were the assessment of disease activity measures i.e. 28-joint disease activity score (DAS28) and diseases activity in psoriatic arthritis (DAPSA) at week 24. The key secondary endpoint was change from baseline in Health Assessment Questionnaire–Disability Index (HAQ-DI) at week 24. Additional efficacy outcome measures at week 24 included improvements in the markers of inflammation (ESR and CRP) and pro-inflammatory cytokines TNF-α, IL-6 and IL-1. At week 24, spironolactone significantly reduced disease activity measure DAS-28 (p<0.001) and DAPSA (p=0.001) compared with placebo. Significant improvements in key secondary measures HAQ-DI (disability index) were evident with spironolactone (p=0.02) versus placebo. After week 24, there was significant reduction in pro-inflammatory cytokines level TNF-α, IL-6 (p<0.01) as compared with placebo group. However, there was no significant improvement in IL-1 in both treatment and placebo groups. There were minor side effects which did not mandate stopping of spironolactone. No change in any biochemical profile was noted after spironolactone treatment. Spironolactone was effective in the treatment of PsA, improving disease activity, physical function and suppressing the level of pro-inflammatory cytokines. Spironolactone demonstrated an acceptable safety profile and was well tolerated.

Keywords: spironolactone, inflammation, inflammatory cytokine, psoriatic arthritis

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Authors: Hachaichi Mohamed Nour El-Islem, Baouni Tahar

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Environmental sustainability rather than a trans-disciplinary and a scientific issue, is the main problem that characterizes all modern cities nowadays. In developing countries, this concern is expressed in a plethora of critical urban ills: traffic congestion, air pollution, noise, urban decay, increase in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions which blemish cities’ landscape and might threaten citizens’ health and welfare. As in the same manner as developing world cities, the rapid growth of Algiers’ human population and increasing in city scale phenomena lead eventually to increase in daily trips, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. In addition, the lack of proper and sustainable planning of the city’s infrastructure is one of the most relevant issues from which Algiers suffers. The aim of this contribution is to estimate the carbon deficit of the City of Algiers, Algeria, using the Ecological Footprint Model (carbon footprint). In order to achieve this goal, the amount of CO₂ from fuel combustion has been calculated and aggregated into five sectors (agriculture, industry, residential, tertiary and transportation); as well, Algiers’ biocapacity (CO₂ uptake land) has been calculated to determine the ecological overshoot. This study shows that Algiers’ transport system is not sustainable and is generating more than 50% of Algiers total carbon footprint which cannot be sequestered by the local forest land. The aim of this research is to show that the Carbon Footprint Assessment might be a relevant indicator to design sustainable strategies/policies striving to reduce CO₂ by setting in motion the energy consumption in the transportation sector and reducing the use of fossil fuels as the main energy input.

Keywords: biocapacity, carbon footprint, ecological footprint assessment, energy consumption

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Authors: Ngozi Nwogu, Mohammed Kajama, Emmanuel Anyanwu, Edward Gobina

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With the objective to create technologically advanced materials to be scientifically applicable, multi-layer silica alumina membranes were molecularly fabricated by continuous surface coating silica layers containing hybrid material onto a ceramic porous substrate for flue gas separation applications. The multi-layer silica alumina membrane was prepared by dip coating technique before further drying in an oven at elevated temperature. The effects of substrate physical appearance, coating quantity, the cross-linking agent, a number of coatings and testing conditions on the gas separation performance of the membrane have been investigated. Scanning electron microscope was used to investigate the development of coating thickness. The membrane shows impressive perm selectivity especially for CO2 and N2 binary mixture representing a stimulated flue gas stream

Keywords: gas separation, silica membrane, separation factor, membrane layer thickness

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Authors: O. O. Oguntoye

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Product consumption constitutes an important consideration for sustainable development. Seeing how product consumption could be highly unsustainable, coupled with how existing policies on corporate responsibility do not particularly address the consumption aspect of product lifecycle, conducting this research became necessary. The research makes an attempt to provide a framework by which to gauge corporate responsibility of product suppliers in terms of their commitment towards the sustainable consumption of their products. Through an exploration of relevant literature, independently established ideas with which to assess a given product supplier were galvanised into a four-criterion framework. The criteria are: (1) Embeddedness of consumption as a factor in corporate sustainability policy, (2) Level of understanding of consumption behaviour, (3) Breadth of behaviour-influencing strategies adopted, and (4) Inclusiveness for all main dimensions of sustainability. This resulting framework was then applied in a case study involving a UK-based furniture supplier where interviews and content analysis of corporate documents were used as the mode for primary data collection. From the case study, it was found that the supplier had performed to different levels across the four themes of the assessment. Two major areas for improvement were however identified – one is for the furniture supplier to focus more proactively on understanding consumption behaviour and, two is for it to widen the scope of its current strategies for enhancing sustainable consumption of supplied furniture. As a generalisation, the framework presented here makes it possible for companies to reflect with a sense of guidance, how they have demonstrated commitment towards sustainable consumption through their values, culture, and operations. It also provides a foundation for developing standardized assessment which the current widely used frameworks such as the GRI, the Global Compact, and others do not cover. While these popularly used frameworks mainly focus on sustainability of companies within the production and supply chain management contexts (i.e. mostly ‘upstream’), the framework here provides an extension by bringing the ‘downstream’ or consumer bit into light.

Keywords: corporate sustainability, design for sustainable consumption, extended producer responsibility, sustainable consumer behaviour

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Authors: Huan-Chieh Chiu, Hung-Shuo Wu, Chien-Hao Wang, Yu-Cheng Yang, Ching-Ya Tseng, Joe-Air Jiang

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Power failure resulting from tower collapse due to violent seismic events might bring enormous and inestimable losses. The Chi-Chi earthquake, for example, strongly struck Taiwan and caused huge damage to the power system on September 21, 1999. Nearly 10% of extra high voltage (EHV) transmission towers were damaged in the earthquake. Therefore, seismic hazards of EHV transmission towers should be monitored and evaluated. The ultimate goal of this study is to establish a damage level assessment model for EHV transmission towers. The data of earthquakes provided by Taiwan Central Weather Bureau serve as a reference and then lay the foundation for earthquake simulations and analyses afterward. Some parameters related to the damage level of each point of an EHV tower are simulated and analyzed by the data from monitoring stations once an earthquake occurs. Through the Fourier transform, the seismic wave is then analyzed and transformed into different wave frequencies, and the data would be shown through a response spectrum. With this method, the seismic frequency which damages EHV towers the most is clearly identified. An estimation model is built to determine the damage level caused by a future seismic event. Finally, instead of relying on visual observation done by inspectors, the proposed model can provide a power company with the damage information of a transmission tower. Using the model, manpower required by visual observation can be reduced, and the accuracy of the damage level estimation can be substantially improved. Such a model is greatly useful for health and construction monitoring because of the advantages of long-term evaluation of structural characteristics and long-term damage detection.

Keywords: damage level monitoring, drift ratio, fragility curve, smart grid, transmission tower

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Authors: T.C. Balachandra, Habibuddin Shaik

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This paper presents experimental results leading towards a better understanding of pre-breakdown and breakdown behavior of vacuum gaps under variable frequency alternating excitations. The frequency variation is in the range of 30 to 300 Hz in steps of 10 Hz for a fixed gap spacing of 0.5 mm. The results indicate that the pre-breakdown currents show an inverse relation with the breakdown voltage in general though erratic behavior was observed over a certain range of frequencies. A breakdown voltage peak was observed at 130 Hz. This was pronounced when the electrode pair was of stainless steel and less pronounced when copper and aluminum electrodes were used. The experimental results are explained based on F-N emission, I-F emission, and also thermal interaction due to quasi-continuous shower of anode micro-particles. Further, it is speculated that the ostensible cause for time delay between voltage and current peaks is due to the presence of neutral molecules in the gap.

Keywords: anode hot-spots, F-N emission, I-F emission, microparticle, neutral molecules, pre-breakdown conduction, vacuum breakdown

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Authors: Bastien Sanglard, Lou Magnat, Ligia Barna, Julian Carrey, Sébastien Lachaize

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Cooking is a primary need for humans, several techniques being used around the globe based on different sources of energy: electricity, solid fuel (wood, coal...), fuel or liquefied petroleum gas. However, all of them leads to direct or indirect greenhouse gas emissions and sometimes health damage in household. Therefore, the solar concentrated power represent a great option to lower the damages because of a cleaner using phase. Nevertheless, the construction phase of the solar cooker still requires primary energy and materials, which leads to environmental impacts. The aims of this work is to analyse the ecological impacts of a commercialaluminium parabola and to compare it with other means of cooking, taking the boiling of 2 litres of water three times a day during 40 years as the functional unit. Life cycle assessment was performed using the software Umberto and the EcoInvent database. Calculations were realized over more than 13 criteria using two methods: the international panel on climate change method and the ReCiPe method. For the reflector itself, different aluminium provenances were compared, as well as the use of recycled aluminium. For the structure, aluminium was compared to iron (primary and recycled) and wood. Results show that climate impacts of the studied parabola was 0.0353 kgCO2eq/kWh when built with Chinese aluminium and can be reduced by 4 using aluminium from Canada. Assessment also showed that using 32% of recycled aluminium would reduce the impact by 1.33 and 1.43 compared to the use of primary Canadian aluminium and primary Chinese aluminium, respectively. The exclusive use of recycled aluminium lower the impact by 17. Besides, the use of iron (recycled or primary) or wood for the structure supporting the reflector significantly lowers the impact. The impact categories of the ReCiPe method show that the parabola made from Chinese aluminium has the heaviest impact - except for metal resource depletion - compared to aluminium from Canada, recycled aluminium or iron. Impact of solar cooking was then compared to gas stove and induction. The gas stove model was a cast iron tripod that supports the cooking pot, and the induction plate was as well a single spot plate. Results show the parabolic solar cooker has the lowest ecological impact over the 13 criteria of the ReCiPe method and over the global warming potential compared to the two other technologies. The climate impact of gas cooking is 0.628kgCO2/kWh when used with natural gas and 0.723 kgCO2/kWh when used with a bottle of gas. In each case, the main part of emissions came from gas burning. Induction cooking has a global warming potential of 0.12 kgCO2eq/kWh with the electricity mix of France, 96.3% of the impact being due to electricity production. Therefore, the electricity mix is a key factor for this impact: for instance, with the electricity mix of Germany and Poland, impacts are 0.81kgCO2eq/kWh and 1.39 kgCO2eq/kWh, respectively. Therefore, the parabolic solar cooker has a real ecological advantages compared to both gas stove and induction plate.

Keywords: life cycle assessement, solar concentration, cooking, sustainability

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