Search results for: forecasting market diffusion

Authors: Manavjit Singh Dhindsa, Ursula Das, Kshirasagar Naik, Marzia Zaman, Richard Purcell, Srinivas Sampalli, Abdul Mutakabbir, Chung-Horng Lung, Thambirajah Ravichandran

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These days, wildland fires, also known as forest fires, are more prevalent than ever. Wildfires have major repercussions that affect ecosystems, communities, and the environment in several ways. Wildfires lead to habitat destruction and biodiversity loss, affecting ecosystems and causing soil erosion. They also contribute to poor air quality by releasing smoke and pollutants that pose health risks, especially for individuals with respiratory conditions. Wildfires can damage infrastructure, disrupt communities, and cause economic losses. The economic impact of firefighting efforts, combined with their direct effects on forestry and agriculture, causes significant financial difficulties for the areas impacted. This research explores different forest fire spread models and presents a comprehensive review of various techniques and methodologies used in the field. A forest fire spread model is a computational or mathematical representation that is used to simulate and predict the behavior of a forest fire. By applying scientific concepts and data from empirical studies, these models attempt to capture the intricate dynamics of how a fire spreads, taking into consideration a variety of factors like weather patterns, topography, fuel types, and environmental conditions. These models assist authorities in understanding and forecasting the potential trajectory and intensity of a wildfire. Emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of wildfire dynamics, this research explores the approaches, assumptions, and findings derived from various models. By using a comparison approach, a critical analysis is provided by identifying patterns, strengths, and weaknesses among these models. The purpose of the survey is to further wildfire research and management techniques. Decision-makers, researchers, and practitioners can benefit from the useful insights that are provided by synthesizing established information. Fire spread models provide insights into potential fire behavior, facilitating authorities to make informed decisions about evacuation activities, allocating resources for fire-fighting efforts, and planning for preventive actions. Wildfire spread models are also useful in post-wildfire mitigation strategies as they help in assessing the fire's severity, determining high-risk regions for post-fire dangers, and forecasting soil erosion trends. The analysis highlights the importance of customized modeling approaches for various circumstances and promotes our understanding of the way forest fires spread. Some of the known models in this field are Rothermel’s wildland fuel model, FARSITE, WRF-SFIRE, FIRETEC, FlamMap, FSPro, cellular automata model, and others. The key characteristics that these models consider include weather (includes factors such as wind speed and direction), topography (includes factors like landscape elevation), and fuel availability (includes factors like types of vegetation) among other factors. The models discussed are physics-based, data-driven, or hybrid models, also utilizing ML techniques like attention-based neural networks to enhance the performance of the model. In order to lessen the destructive effects of forest fires, this initiative aims to promote the development of more precise prediction tools and effective management techniques. The survey expands its scope to address the practical needs of numerous stakeholders. Access to enhanced early warning systems enables decision-makers to take prompt action. Emergency responders benefit from improved resource allocation strategies, strengthening the efficacy of firefighting efforts.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, deep learning, forest fire management, fire risk assessment, fire simulation, machine learning, remote sensing, wildfire modeling

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Authors: Dominik Kowitzke

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Housing constructions have direct and indirect environmental impacts especially caused by soil sealing and gray energy consumption related to the use of construction materials. Accordingly, the German government introduced regulations limiting additional annual soil sealing. At the same time, in many regions like metropolitan areas the demand for further housing is high and of current concern in the media and politics. It is argued that meeting this demand by making better use of the existing housing supply is more sustainable than the construction of new housing units. In this context, targeting the phenomenon of so-called over the housing of empty nest households seems worthwhile to investigate for its potential to free living space and thus, reduce the need for new housing constructions and related environmental harm. Over housing occurs if no space adjustment takes place in household lifecycle stages when children move out from home and the space formerly created for the offspring is from then on under-utilized. Although in some cases the housing space consumption might actually meet households’ equilibrium preferences, frequently space-wise adjustments to the living situation doesn’t take place due to transaction or information costs, habit formation, or government intervention leading to increasing costs of relocations like real estate transfer taxes or tenant protection laws keeping tenure rents below the market price. Moreover, many detached houses are not long-term designed in a way that freed up space could be rent out. Findings of this research based on socio-economic survey data, indeed, show a significant difference between the living space of empty nest and a comparison group of households which never had children. The approach used to estimate the average difference in living space is a linear regression model regressing the response variable living space on a two-dimensional categorical variable distinguishing the two groups of household types and further controls. This difference is assumed to be the under-utilized space and is extrapolated to the total amount of empty nests in the population. Supporting this result, it is found that households that move, despite market frictions impairing the relocation, after children left their home tend to decrease the living space. In the next step, only for areas with tight housing markets in Germany and high construction activity, the total under-utilized space in empty nests is estimated. Under the assumption of full substitutability of housing space in empty nests and space in new dwellings in these locations, it is argued that in a perfect market with empty nest households consuming their equilibrium demand quantity of housing space, dwelling constructions in the amount of the excess consumption of living space could be saved. This, on the other hand, would prevent environmental harm quantified in carbon dioxide equivalence units related to average constructions of detached or multi-family houses. This study would thus provide information on the amount of under-utilized space inside dwellings which is missing in public data and further estimates the external effect of over housing in environmental terms.

Keywords: empty nests, environment, Germany, households, over housing

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Naheed Niaz, Nimra Naeem, Bushra Uzair, Riffat Tahira

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Antibacterial activity of different traditional plants essential oils against clinical isolates of Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) through disk diffusion method was evaluated. All the tested essential oils, in different concentrations, inhibited growth of S. aureus to varying degrees. Cinnamon and Thyme essential oils were observed to be the “best” against test pathogen. Even at lowest concentration of these essential oils i.e. 25 µl/ml, clear zone of inhibition was recorded 9+0.085mm and 8+0.051mm respectively, and at higher concentrations there was a total reduction in growth of MRSA. The study also focused on analyzing the synergistic effects of essential oils in combination with amoxicillin. Results showed that oregano and pennyroyal mint essential oils which were not very effective alone turned out to be strong synergistic enhancers. The activity increased with increase in concentration of the essential oils. It may be concluded from present results that cinnamon and thyme essential oils could be used as potential antimicrobial source for the treatment of infections caused by Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA).

Keywords: Staphylococcus aureus, essential oils, antibiotics, combination therapy, minimum inhibitory concentration

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Authors: Illyas Md Isa, Sharifah Norain Mohd Sharif, Norhayati Hashima

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A mercury(II) sensor was developed by using multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) paste electrode modified with Zn/Al layered double hydroxide-3(4-methoxyphenyl)propionate nanocomposite (Zn/Al-HMPP). The optimum conditions by cyclic voltammetry were observed at electrode composition 2.5% (w/w) of Zn/Al-HMPP/MWCNTs, 0.4 M potassium chloride, pH 4.0, and scan rate of 100 mVs-1. The sensor exhibited wide linear range from 1x10-3 M to 1x10-7 M Hg2+ and 1x10-7 M to 1x10-9 M Hg2+, with a detection limit of 1x10-10 M Hg2+. The high sensitivity of the proposed electrode towards Hg(II) was confirmed by double potential-step chronocoulometry which indicated these values; diffusion coefficient 1.5445 x 10-9 cm2 s-1, surface charge 524.5 µC s-½ and surface coverage 4.41 x 10-2 mol cm-2. The presence of 25-fold concentration of most metal ions had no influence on the anodic peak current. With characteristics such as high sensitivity, selectivity and repeatability the electrode was then proposed as the appropriate alternative for the determination of mercury(II).

Keywords: cyclic voltammetry, mercury(II), modified carbon paste electrode, nanocomposite

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Authors: Fu Jinyu, Lin Jinguan

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This paper introduces a novel approach that unifies two types of models: one is the continuous-time jump-diffusion used to model high-frequency data, and the other is discrete-time GQARCH employed to model low-frequency financial data by embedding the discrete GQARCH structure with jumps in the instantaneous volatility process. This model is named “GQARCH-It\^{o} -Jumps mode.” We adopt the realized range-based threshold estimation for high-frequency financial data rather than the realized return-based volatility estimators, which entail the loss of intra-day information of the price movement. Meanwhile, a quasi-likelihood function for the low-frequency GQARCH structure with jumps is developed for the parametric estimate. The asymptotic theories are mainly established for the proposed estimators in the case of finite activity jumps. Moreover, simulation studies are implemented to check the finite sample performance of the proposed methodology. Specifically, it is demonstrated that how our proposed approaches can be practically used on some financial data.

Keywords: It\^{o} process, GQARCH, leverage effects, threshold, realized range-based volatility estimator, quasi-maximum likelihood estimate

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Authors: He Yuhai, Ahmad Ziad Bin Sulaiman

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Tongkat Ali, or Eurycoma longifolia, is a traditional Malay and Orang Asli herb used as aphrodisiac, general tonic, anti-Malaria, and anti-Pyretic. It has been recognized as a cashcrop by Malaysia due to its high value for the pharmaceutical use. In Tongkat Ali, eurycomanone, a quassinoid is usually chosen as a marker phytochemical as it is the most abundant phytochemical. In this research, ultrasound and enzyme were used to enhance the extraction of Eurycomanone from Tongkat Ali. Ultrasonic assisted extraction (USE) enhances extraction by facilitating the swelling and hydration of the plant material, enlarging the plant pores, breaking the plant cell, reducing the plant particle size and creating cavitation bubbles that enhance mass transfer in both the washing and diffusion phase of extraction. Enzyme hydrolyses the cell wall of the plant, loosening the structure of the cell wall, releasing more phytochemicals from the plant cell, enhancing the productivity of the extraction. Possible effects of ultrasound on the activity of the enzyme during the hydrolysis of the cell wall is under the investigation by this research. The extracts was analysed by high performance liquid chromatography for the yields of Eurycomanone. In this whole process, the conventional water extraction was used as a control of comparing the performance of the ultrasound and enzyme assisted extraction.

Keywords: ultrasound, enzymatic, extraction, Eurycoma longifolia

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Authors: Ana Rita Conde, Pilar Mota, Tânia Botelho, Carlos Rodrigues, Osvaldo Silva, Áurea Sousa, Suzana Caldeira, Isabel Rego, Jéssica Pacheco

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Families with children with ASD are interested in traveling but end up not traveling due to the obstacles they face and not finding inclusive traveling offers. This study will identify the needs of families with children with ASD, to develop the products targeted to their tourist needs. 137 families from different countries answered a questionnaire about their travel experiences, needs and preferences. Based on the results, guidelines are presented for the development of products specially aimed for this market niche.

Keywords: inclusive tourism, sustainability, autism spectrum disorder, children, families

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Authors: Petr Vaculik

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The newest semiconductor devices on the market are MOSFET transistors based on the silicon carbide – SiC. This material has exclusive features thanks to which it becomes a better switch than Si – silicon semiconductor switch. There are some special features that need to be understood to enable the device’s use to its full potential. The advantages and differences of SiC MOSFETs in comparison with Si IGBT transistors have been described in first part of this article. Second part describes driver for SiC MOSFET transistor and last part of article represents SiC MOSFET in the application of buck converter (step-down) and design of simple RC snubber.

Keywords: SiC, Si, MOSFET, IGBT, SBD, RC snubber

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Authors: Aly Audu Fada

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The mono-economic structure of Nigerian economy has made it depend on oil for so many years. Apart from the negative effect of its exploitation, relying solely on oil as the major source of revenue for peddling the ship of development is myopic. The crumbling oil price in the world market is one proof of the dangers of this over-dependence. This paper highlights the consequences of the oil-driven economy and explores the various opportunities that are accessible in tourism through a contextual analysis. It is recommended that those at the helm of affairs should initiate collaboration between the public and private sectors to explore and harness the rich tourism resources naturally dispersed across the country to achieve the objectives of economic transformation agenda of the Federal Government.

Keywords: diversifying, economic, tourism, oil

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Authors: Krassimir Todorov

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The purpose of the paper is to redefine the levels of structure of corporate, business and functional strategies that were established over the past several decades, to a conceptual model, consisting of corporate, business and operations strategies, that are reinforced by functional strategies. We will propose a conceptual framework of different perspectives in the role of strategic operations as a separate strategic place and reposition the remaining functional strategies as supporting tools, existing at all three levels. The proposed model is called ‘the strategic engine’, since the mutual relationships of its ingredients are identical with main elements and working principle of the internal combustion engine. Based on theoretical essence, related to every strategic level, we will prove that the strategic engine model is useful for managers seeking to safeguard the competitive advantage of their companies. Each strategy level is researched through its basic elements. At the corporate level we examine the scope of firm’s product, the vertical and geographical coverage. At the business level, the point of interest is limited to the SWOT analysis’ basic elements. While at operations level, the key research issue relates to the scope of the following performance indicators: cost, quality, speed, flexibility and dependability. In this relationship, the paper provides a different view for the role of operations strategy within the overall strategy concept. We will prove that the theoretical essence of operations goes far beyond the scope of traditionally accepted business functions. Exploring the applications of Resource-based theory and Market-based theory within the strategic levels framework, we will prove that there is a logical consequence of the theoretical impact in corporate, business and operations strategy – at every strategic level, the validity of one theory is substituted to the level of the other. Practical application of the conceptual model is tested in automotive industry. Actually, the proposed theoretical concept is inspired by a leading global automotive group – Inchcape PLC, listed on the London Stock Exchange, and constituent of the FTSE 250 Index.

Keywords: business strategy, corporate strategy, functional strategies, operations strategy

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Authors: Savita Tangwongkit, Chittur S Srinivasan, Philip J. Jones

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Thailand has become the world’s fourth largest sugarcane producer and second largest sugar exporter. While there have been a number of drivers of this growth, the primary driver has been wide-ranging government support measures. Recently, the Thai government has emphasized the need for policy reform as part of a broader industry restructuring to bring the sector up-to-date with the current and future developments in the international sugar market. Because of the sectors historical dependence on government support, any such reform is likely to have a very significant impact on the fortunes of Thai cane farmers. This study explores the impact of three policy scenarios, representing a spectrum of policy approaches, on Thai cane producers. These reform scenarios were designed in consultation with policy makers and academics working in the cane sector. Scenario 1 captures the current ‘government proposal’ for policy reform. This scenario removes certain domestic production subsidies but seeks to maintain as much support as is permissible under current WTO rules. The second scenario, ‘protectionism’, maintains the current internal market producer supports, but otherwise complies with international (WTO) commitments. Third, the ‘libertarian scenario’ removes all production support and market interventions, trade and domestic consumption distortions. Most important driver of producer behaviour in all of the scenarios is the producer price of cane. Cane price is obviously highest under the protectionism scenario, followed by government proposal and libertarian scenarios, respectively. Likely producer responses to these three policy scenarios was determined by means of a large-scale survey of cane farmers. The sample was stratified by size group and quotas filled by size group and region. One scenario was presented to each of three sub-samples, consisting of approx.150 farmers. Total sample size was 462 farms. Data was collected by face-to-face interview between June and August 2019. There was a marked difference in farmer response to the three scenarios. Farmers in the ‘Protectionism’ scenario, which maintains the highest cane price and those who farm larger cane areas are more likely to continue cane farming. The libertarian scenario is likely to result in the greatest losses in terms of cane production volume broadly double that of the ‘protectionism’ scenario, primarily due to farmers quitting cane production altogether. Over half of loss cane production volume comes from medium-size farm, i.e. the largest and smallest producers are the most resilient. This result is likely due to the fact that the medium size group are large enough to require hired labour but lack the economies of scale of the largest farms. Over all size groups the farms most heavily specialized in cane production, i.e. those devoting 26-50% of arable land to cane, are also the most vulnerable, with 70% of all farmers quitting cane production coming from this group. This investigation suggests that cane price is the most significant determinant of farmer behaviour. Also, that where scenarios drive significantly lower cane price, policy makers should target support towards mid-sized producers, with policies that encourage efficiency gains and diversification into alternative agricultural crops.

Keywords: farmer intentions, farm survey, policy reform, Thai cane production

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Authors: Cyrillus Prabandana

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Supply chain optimisation requires multiple factors as consideration or constraints. These factors are including but not limited to demand forecasting, raw material fulfilment, production capacity, inventory level, facilities locations, transportation means, and manpower availability. By knowing all manageable factors involved and assuming the uncertainty with pre-defined percentage factors, an integrated supply chain model could be developed to manage various business scenarios. This paper analyse the utilisation of geographical point of view to develop an integrated supply chain network model to optimise the distribution of finished product appropriately according to forecasted demand and available supply. The supply chain optimisation model shows that small change in one supply chain constraint is possible to largely impact other constraints, and the new information from the model should be able to support the decision making process. The model was focused on three areas, i.e. raw material fulfilment, production capacity and finished products transportation. To validate the model suitability, it was implemented in a project aimed to optimise the concrete supply chain in a mining location. The high level of operations complexity and involvement of multiple stakeholders in the concrete supply chain is believed to be sufficient to give the illustration of the larger scope. The implementation of this geographical supply chain network modeling resulted an optimised concrete supply chain from raw material fulfilment until finished products distribution to each customer, which indicated by lower percentage of missed concrete order fulfilment to customer.

Keywords: decision making, geographical supply chain modeling, supply chain optimisation, supply chain

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Authors: Naren Bag, S. Bhattacharyya, Partha P. Gopmandal

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In this study, we have analyzed the transport of analytes under a two dimensional steady incompressible flow of power-law fluids through rectangular nanochannel. A mathematical model based on the Cauchy momentum-Nernst-Planck-Poisson equations is considered to study the combined effect of mixed electroosmotic (EO) and pressure driven (PD) flow. The coupled governing equations are solved numerically by finite volume method. We have studied extensively the effect of key parameters, e.g., flow behavior index, concentration of the electrolyte, surface potential, imposed pressure gradient and imposed electric field strength on the net average flow across the channel. In addition to study the effect of mixed EOF and PD on the analyte distribution across the channel, we consider a nonlinear model based on general convective-diffusion-electromigration equation. We have also presented the retention factor for various values of electrolyte concentration and flow behavior index.

Keywords: electric double layer, finite volume method, flow behavior index, mixed electroosmotic/pressure driven flow, non-Newtonian power-law fluids, numerical simulation

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Authors: M. E. Abalaka, S. Y. Daniyan, S. O. Adeyemo, D. Damisa

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Gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) have gained increasing interest in recent times. This is greatly due to their special features, which include unusual optical and electronic properties, high stability and biological compatibility, controllable morphology and size dispersion, and easy surface functionalization. In typical synthesis, AuNPs were produced by reduction of gold salt AuCl4 in an appropriate solvent. A stabilizing agent was added to prevent the particles from aggregating. The antibacterial activity of different sizes of gold nanoparticles was investigated against Staphylococcus aureus, Salmonella typhi and Pseudomonas pneumonia using the disk diffusion method in a Müeller–Hinton Agar. The Au-NPs were effective against all bacteria tested. That the Au-NPs were successfully synthesized in suspension and were used to study the antibacterial activity of the two medicinal plants against some bacterial pathogens suggests that Au-NPs can be employed as an effective bacteria inhibitor and may be an effective tool in medical field. The study clearly showed that the Au-NPs exhibiting inhibition towards the tested pathogenic bacteria in vitro could have the same effects in vivo and thus may be useful in the medical field if well researched into.

Keywords: gold nanoparticles, Gomphrena celesioides, Prunus amygdalus, pathogens

Procedia PDF Downloads 293

Authors: Michael Picard

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This proposal offers to shed light on the changing legal geography of the global waste economy. Global waste recycling has become a multi-billion-dollar industry. NASDAQ predicts the emergence of a worldwide 1,296G$ waste management market between 2017 and 2022. Underlining this evolution, a new generation of preferential waste-trade agreements has emerged in the Pacific. In the last decade, Japan has concluded a series of bilateral treaties with Asian countries, and most recently with China. An agreement between Tokyo and Beijing was formalized on 7 May 2008, which forged an economic partnership on waste transfer and mining. The agreement set up International Recycling Zones, where certified recycling plants in China process industrial waste imported from Japan. Under the joint venture, Chinese companies salvage the embedded value from Japanese industrial discards, reprocess them and send them back to Japanese manufacturers, such as Mitsubishi and Panasonic. This circular economy is designed to convert surplus garbage into surplus value. Ever since the opening of Sino-Japanese eco-parks, millions of tons of plastic and e-waste have been exported from Japan to China every year. Yet, quite unexpectedly, China has recently closed its waste market to imports, jeopardizing Japan’s billion-dollar exports to China. China notified the WTO that, by the end of 2017, it would no longer accept imports of plastics and certain metals. Given China’s share of Japanese waste exports, a complete closure of China’s market would require Japan to find new uses for its recyclable industrial trash generated domestically every year. It remains to be seen how China will effectively implement its ban on waste imports, considering the economic interests at stake. At this stage, what remains to be clarified is whether China's ban on waste imports will negatively affect the recycling trade between Japan and China. What is clear, though, is the rapid transformation in the legal geography of waste mining in East-Asia. For decades, East-Asian waste trade had been tied up in an ‘ecologically unequal exchange’ between the Japanese core and the Chinese periphery. This global unequal waste distribution could be measured by the Environmental Stringency Index, which revealed that waste regulation was 39% weaker in the Global South than in Japan. This explains why Japan could legally export its hazardous plastic and electronic discards to China. The asymmetric flow of hazardous waste between Japan and China carried the colonial heritage of international law. The legal geography of waste distribution was closely associated to the imperial construction of an ecological trade imbalance between the Japanese source and the Chinese sink. Thus, China’s recent decision to ban hazardous waste imports is a sign of a broader ecological shift. As a global economic superpower, China announced to the world it would no longer be the planet’s junkyard. The policy change will have profound consequences on the global circulation of waste, re-routing global waste towards countries south of China, such as Vietnam and Malaysia. By the time the Berlin Conference takes place in May 2018, the presentation will be able to assess more accurately the effect of the Chinese ban on the transboundary movement of waste in Asia.

Keywords: Asia, ecological unequal exchange, global waste trade, legal geography

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Authors: Evangelos Tsakalos, Maria Kazantzaki, Eleni Filippaki, Yannis Bassiakos

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The coastal areas of the Mediterranean have been extensively affected by the transgressive event that followed the Last Glacial Maximum, with many studies conducted regarding the stratigraphic configuration of coastal sediments around the Mediterranean. The coastal zone of the Messologi area, western Greece, consists of low relief beaches containing low cliffs and eroded dunes, a fact which, in combination with the rising sea level and tectonic subsidence of the area, has led to substantial coastal. Coastal vulnerability assessment is a useful means of identifying areas of coastline that are vulnerable to impacts of climate change and coastal processes, highlighting potential problem areas. Commonly, coastal vulnerability assessment takes the form of an ‘index’ that quantifies the relative vulnerability along a coastline. Here we make use of the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) methodology by Thieler and Hammar-Klose, by considering geological features, coastal slope, relative sea-level change, shoreline erosion/accretion rates, and mean significant wave height as well as mean tide range to assess the present-day vulnerability of the coastal zone of Messologi area. In light of this, an impact assessment is performed under three different sea level rise scenarios, and adaptation measures to control climate change events are proposed. This study contributes toward coastal zone management practices in low-lying areas that have little data information, assisting decision-makers in adopting best adaptations options to overcome sea level rise impact on vulnerable areas similar to the coastal zone of Messologi.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, coastal erosion, sea level rise, GIS

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Authors: Kianoosh Samimi, Farhad Estakhr, Mahdi Mahdikhani, Faramaz Moodi

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The self-consolidating concrete (SCC) performance over ordinary concrete is generally related to the ingredients used. The metakaolin can modify various properties of concrete, due to high pozzolanic reactions and also makes a denser microstructure. The objective of this paper is to examine the influence of three types of Portland cement and metakaolin on compressive strength and transport properties of SCC at early ages and up to 90 days. Six concrete mixtures were prepared with three types of different cements and substitution of 15% metakaolin. The results show that the highest value of compressive strength was achieved for Portland Slag Cement (PSC) and without any metakaolin at age of 90 days. Conversely, the lowest level of compressive strength at all ages of conservation was obtained for Pozzolanic Portland Cement (PPC) and containing 15% metakaolin. As can be seen in the results, compressive strength in SCC containing Portland cement type II with metakaolin is higher compared to that relative to SCC without metakaolin from 28 days of age. On the other hand, the samples containing PSC and PPC with metakaolin had a lower compressive strength than the plain samples. Therefore, it can be concluded that metakaolin has a negative effect on the compressive strength of SCC containing PSC and PPC. In addition, results show that metakaolin has enhanced chloride durability of SCCs and reduced capillary water absorption at 28, 90 days.

Keywords: SCC, metakaolin, cement type, compressive strength, chloride diffusion

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Authors: Rafael Alvarenga, Hubert Herbaux, Laurent Linguet

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The uncertainty concerning the power production of intermittent renewable energy is one of the main barriers to the integration of such assets into the power grid. Efforts have thus been made to develop methods to quantify this uncertainty, allowing producers to ensure more reliable and profitable engagements related to their future power delivery. Even though a diversity of probabilistic approaches was proposed in the literature giving promising results, the added value of adopting such methods for scheduling intermittent power plants is still unclear. In this study, the profits obtained by a decision-making model used to optimally schedule an existing PV power plant connected to batteries are compared when the model is fed with deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated with two of the most recent methods proposed in the literature. Moreover, deterministic forecasts with different accuracy levels were used in the experiments, testing the utility and the capability of probabilistic methods of modeling the progressively increasing uncertainty. Even though probabilistic approaches are unquestionably developed in the recent literature, the results obtained through a study case show that deterministic forecasts still provide the best performance if accurate, ensuring a gain of 14% on final profits compared to the average performance of probabilistic models conditioned to the same forecasts. When the accuracy of deterministic forecasts progressively decreases, probabilistic approaches start to become competitive options until they completely outperform deterministic forecasts when these are very inaccurate, generating 73% more profits in the case considered compared to the deterministic approach.

Keywords: PV power forecasting, uncertainty quantification, optimal scheduling, power systems

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Authors: Illyas Md Isa, Sharifah Norain Mohd Sharif, Norhayati Hashim

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A mercury(II) sensor was developed by using multi-walled carbon nano tubes (MWCNTs) paste electrode modified with Zn/Al layered double hydroxide-3(4-methoxyphenyl) propionate nano composite (Zn/Al-HMPP). The optimum conditions by cyclic voltammetry were observed at electrode composition 2.5% (w/w) of Zn/Al-HMPP/MWCNTs, 0.4 M potassium chloride, pH 4.0, and scan rate of 100 mVs-1. The sensor exhibited wide linear range from 1x10-3 M to 1x10-7 M Hg2+ and 1x10-7 M to 1x10-9 M Hg2+, with a detection limit of 1 x 10-10 M Hg2+. The high sensitivity of the proposed electrode towards Hg(II) was confirmed by double potential-step chronocoulometry which indicated these values; diffusion coefficient 1.5445 x 10-9 cm2 s-1, surface charge 524.5 µC s-½ and surface coverage 4.41 x 10-2 mol cm-2. The presence of 25-fold concentration of most metal ions had no influence on the anodic peak current. With characteristics such as high sensitivity, selectivity and repeatability the electrode was then proposed as the appropriate alternative for the determination of mercury.

Keywords: Cyclic voltammetry, Mercury(II), Modified carbon paste electrode, Nanocomposite

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Authors: Donald Zullick, Cihan Varol

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This research paper begins with a look at current work in business continuity as it relates to the cloud and small to medium business (SMB). While cloud services are an emerging paradigm that is quickly making an impact on business, there has been no substantive research applied to SMB. Seeing this lapse, we have taken a fusion of continuity and cloud research with application to the SMB market. It is an initial reflection with base framework guidelines as a starting point for implementation. In this approach, our research ties together existing work and fill the gap with an SMB outlook.

Keywords: business continuity, cloud services, medium size business, risk assessment, small business

Procedia PDF Downloads 381

Authors: Ma. Dina Datiles Jimenez

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Service strategy and service Innovation has something to do with the success of the foodservice business. The foodservice business nowadays has become more competitive, and technology driven. This study aimed to determine and investigate the service innovation and strategies of the food service industry and the challenges during the pandemic to serve as the basis for a competitive advantage model. The study used mixed methods, including descriptive quantitative and qualitative methods. The Metro Manila foodservice managers were the target population of the study, which consisted of an estimated 1500 respondents from the selected cities. The assessment of service innovation for the following dimensions: product-related dimension; market-related dimension; process-related dimension; and organization-related dimension, when classified according to profile, was very large for age, gender, and educational attainment. When respondents are classified according to profile, the service strategy in terms of customer service strategy, after-sales service strategy, maintenance service strategy, research and development-oriented service strategy, and operational services strategy were all assessed with a very large extent of implementation. There was a significant difference in all four aspects of service innovation when classified based on age. However, for gender, only the market and process dimensions showed significant differences, while the product and organization conveyed no significant differences. Consequently, the evidence was not enough to prove that educational attainment differs from one another on the four aspects of service innovation. There was sufficient evidence to prove that the ages differ from one another in all aspects of service strategies. While gender and educational attainment showed no significant difference in the assessment of service strategies, Training on the trends in the foodservice industry during the pandemic is offered; technical maintenance is evident; the company allotted budget for outsourcing training; the quality control system; and online customer feedback were revealed as major indicators for service strategy. Fear of viruses, limited customers, a minimal work force, and low revenues were identified as challenges faced by the foodservice industry.

Keywords: foodservice industry, service innovation, service strategy, competitive advantage, sustainability, technology

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Authors: Ubon Asuquo Essien, Okwudili Bismark Ibeagwa, Daberechi Peace Ubabuko

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The Broiler Poultry subsector is dominated by small scale production with low aggregate output. The high cost of inputs currently experienced in Nigeria tends to aggravate the situation; hence many broiler farmers struggle to break-even. This study was designed to examine income and input factors in small scale deep liter broiler production in Imo state, Nigeria. Specifically, the study examined; socio-economic characteristics of small scale deep liter broiler producing Poultry farmers; estimate cost and returns of broiler production in the area; analyze input factors in broiler production in the area and examined marketability, age and profitability of the enterprise. A multi-stage sampling technique was adopted in selecting 60 small scale broiler farmers who use deep liter system from 6 communities through the use of structured questionnaire. The socioeconomic characteristics of the broiler farmers and the profitability/ marketability age of the birds were described using descriptive statistical tools such as frequencies, means and percentages. Gross margin analysis was used to analyze the cost and returns to broiler production, while Cobb Douglas production function was employed to analyze input factors in broiler production. The result of the study revealed that the cost of feed (P<0.1), deep liter material (P<0.05) and medication (P<0.05) had a significant positive relationship with the gross return of broiler farmers in the study area, while cost of labour, fuel and day old chicks were not significant. Furthermore, Gross profit margin of the farmers who market their broiler at the 8th week of rearing was 80.7%; and 78.7% and 60.8% for farmers who market at the 10th week and 12th week of rearing, respectively. The business is, therefore, profitable but at varying degree. Government and Development partners should make deliberate efforts to curb the current rise in the prices of poultry feeds, drugs and timber materials used as bedding so as to widen the profit margin and encourage more farmers to go into the business. The farmers equally need more technical assistance from extension agents with regards to timely and profitable marketing.

Keywords: broilers, factor analysis, income, small scale

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Authors: Muhammad Fanseem E. M., Rama Satya Satish Kumar, Indrajeet Bhausaheb Bhavar, Deepak M.

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Keeping the right balance of electricity between the supply and demand sides of the grid is one of the most important objectives of electrical grid operation. Power generation and demand forecasting are the core of power management and generation scheduling. Large, centralized producing units were used in the construction of conventional power systems in the past. A certain level of balance was possible since the generation kept up with the power demand. However, integrating renewable energy sources into power networks has proven to be a difficult challenge due to its intermittent nature. The power imbalance caused by rising demands and peak loads is negatively affecting power quality and dependability. Demand side management and demand response were one of the solutions, keeping generation the same but altering or rescheduling or shedding completely the load or demand. However, shedding the load or rescheduling is not an efficient way. There comes the significance of virtual power plants. The virtual power plant integrates distributed generation, dispatchable load, and distributed energy storage organically by using complementing control approaches and communication technologies. This would eventually increase the utilization rate and financial advantages of distributed energy resources. Most of the writing on virtual power plant models ignored technical limitations, and modeling was done in favor of a financial or commercial viewpoint. Therefore, this paper aims to address the modeling intricacies of VPPs and their technical limitations, shedding light on a holistic understanding of this innovative power management approach.

Keywords: cost optimization, distributed energy resources, dynamic modeling, model quality tests, power system modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 45

Authors: Areej Salaymeh, Loren Schwiebert, Stephen Remias, Jonathan Waddell

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Extracting information from new data sources has emerged as a crucial task in many traffic planning processes, such as identifying traffic patterns, route planning, traffic forecasting, and locating infrastructure improvements. Given the advanced technologies used to collect Global Positioning System (GPS) data from dedicated GPS devices, GPS equipped phones, and navigation tools, intelligent data analysis methodologies are necessary to mine this raw data. In this research, an automatic detection framework is proposed to help identify and classify the locations of stopped GPS waypoints into two main categories: signalized intersections or highway congestion. The Delaunay triangulation is used to perform this assessment in the clustering phase. While most of the existing clustering algorithms need assumptions about the data distribution, the effectiveness of the Delaunay triangulation relies on triangulating geographical data points without such assumptions. Our proposed method starts by cleaning noise from the data and normalizing it. Next, the framework will identify stoppage points by calculating the traveled distance. The last step is to use clustering to form groups of waypoints for signalized traffic and highway congestion. Next, a binary classifier was applied to find distinguish highway congestion from signalized stop points. The binary classifier uses the length of the cluster to find congestion. The proposed framework shows high accuracy for identifying the stop positions and congestion points in around 99.2% of trials. We show that it is possible, using limited GPS data, to distinguish with high accuracy.

Keywords: Delaunay triangulation, clustering, intelligent transportation systems, GPS data

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Mont Kumpugdee-Vollrath, Khaled Abdallah

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Liposomes and pegylated liposomes were widely used as drug delivery system in pharmaceutical field since a long time. However, in the former time, polyethylene glycol (PEG) was connected into phospholipid after the liposomes were already prepared. In this paper, we intend to study the possibility of applying phospholipids which already connected with PEG and then they were used to prepare liposomes. The model drug resveratrol was used because it can be applied against different diseases. Cholesterol was applied to stabilize the membrane of liposomes. The thin film technique in a laboratory scale was a preparation method. The liposomes were then characterized by nanoparticle tracking analysis (NTA), photon correlation spectroscopy (PCS) and light microscopic techniques. The stable liposomes can be produced and the particle sizes after filtration were in nanometers. The 2- and 3-chains-PEG-phospholipid (PL) caused in smaller particle size than the 4-chains-PEG-PL. Liposomes from PL 90G and cholesterol were stable during storage at 8 °C of 56 days because the particle sizes measured by PCS were almost not changed. There was almost no leakage of resveratrol from liposomes PL 90G with cholesterol after diffusion test in dialysis tube for 28 days. All liposomes showed the sustained release during measuring time of 270 min. The maximum release amount of 16-20% was detected with liposomes from 2- and 3-chains-PEG-PL. The other liposomes gave max. release amount of resveratrol only of 10%. The release kinetic can be explained by Korsmeyer-Peppas equation. 

Keywords: liposome, NTA, resveratrol, pegylation, cholesterol

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: H. A. Lopez-Aguilar, E. A. Huerta-Reynoso, J. A. Gomez, J. A. Duarte-Moller, A. Perez-Hernandez

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Environmental performance of artisanal brick manufacture was studied by Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) methodology and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis in Mexico. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the environmental impact during artisanal brick manufacture. LCA cradle-to-gate approach was complemented with CFD analysis to carry out an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). The lifecycle includes the stages of extraction, baking and transportation to the gate. The functional unit of this study was the production of a single brick in Chihuahua, Mexico and the impact categories studied were carcinogens, respiratory organics and inorganics, climate change radiation, ozone layer depletion, ecotoxicity, acidification/ eutrophication, land use, mineral use and fossil fuels. Laboratory techniques for fuel characterization, gas measurements in situ, and AP42 emission factors were employed in order to calculate gas emissions for inventory data. The results revealed that the categories with greater impacts are ecotoxicity and carcinogens. The CFD analysis is helpful in predicting the thermal diffusion and contaminants from a defined source. LCA-CFD synergy complemented the EIA and allowed us to identify the problem of thermal efficiency within the system.

Keywords: LCA, CFD, brick, artisanal

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Mahfuzur Rahman

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Back-contact solar cells improve optical properties by moving all electrically conducting parts to the back of the cell. The cell's structure allows silicon solar cells to surpass the 25% efficiency barrier and interdigitated solar cells are now the most efficient. In this work, the fabrication of a light, efficient and temperature resistant interdigitated back contact (IBC) solar cell is investigated. This form of solar cell differs from a conventional solar cell in that the electrodes are located at the back of the cell, eliminating the need for grids on the top, allowing the full surface area of the cell to receive sunlight, resulting in increased efficiency. In this project, we will use SILVACO TCAD, an optoelectronic device simulator, to construct a very thin solar cell with dimensions of 100x250um in 2D Luminous. The influence of sunlight intensity and atmospheric temperature on solar cell output power is highly essential and it has been explored in this work. The cell's optimum performance with 150um bulk thickness provides 28.81% efficiency with an 87.68% fill factor rate making it very thin, flexible and resilient, providing diverse operational capabilities.

Keywords: interdigitated, shading, recombination loss, incident-plane, drift-diffusion, luminous, SILVACO

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Helene Thieblemont, Fariborz Haghighat

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Energy storage systems play a crucial role in decreasing building energy consumption during peak periods and expand the use of renewable energies in buildings. To provide a high building thermal performance, the energy storage system has to be properly controlled to insure a good energy performance while maintaining a satisfactory thermal comfort for building’s occupant. In the case of passive discharge storages, defining in advance the required amount of energy is required to avoid overheating in the building. Consequently, anticipatory supervisory control strategies have been developed forecasting future energy demand and production to coordinate systems. Anticipatory supervisory control strategies are based on some predictions, mainly of the weather forecast. However, if the forecasted hourly outdoor temperature may be found online with a high accuracy, solar radiations predictions are most of the time not available online. To estimate them, this paper proposes an advanced approach based on the forecast of weather conditions. Several methods to correlate hourly weather conditions forecast to real hourly solar radiations are compared. Results show that using weather conditions forecast allows estimating with an acceptable accuracy solar radiations of the next day. Moreover, this technique allows obtaining hourly data that may be used for building models. As a result, this solar radiation prediction model may help to implement model-based controller as Model Predictive Control.

Keywords: anticipatory control, model predictive control, solar radiation forecast, thermal storage

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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The study presents an overview of the many uses and approaches for estimating out-of-sequence thrust movement in earthquake mitigation. The study investigates how knowing and forecasting thrust movement during seismic occurrences might assist to effective earthquake mitigation measures. The review begins by discussing out-of-sequence thrust movement and its importance in earthquake mitigation strategies. It explores how typical techniques of estimating thrust movement may not capture the full complexity of seismic occurrences and emphasizes the benefits of include out-of-sequence data in the analysis. A thorough review of existing research and studies on out-of-sequence thrust movement estimates for earthquake mitigation. The study demonstrates how to estimate out-of-sequence thrust movement using multiple data sources such as GPS measurements, satellite imagery, and seismic recordings. The study also examines the use of out-of-sequence thrust movement estimates in earthquake mitigation measures. It investigates how precise calculation of thrust movement may help improve structural design, analyse infrastructure risk, and develop early warning systems. The potential advantages of using out-of-sequence data in these applications to improve the efficiency of earthquake mitigation techniques. The difficulties and limits of estimating out-of-sequence thrust movement for earthquake mitigation. It addresses data quality difficulties, modelling uncertainties, and computational complications. To address these obstacles and increase the accuracy and reliability of out-of-sequence thrust movement estimates, the authors recommend topics for additional study and improvement. The study is a helpful resource for seismic monitoring and earthquake risk assessment researchers, engineers, and policymakers, supporting innovations in earthquake mitigation measures based on a better knowledge of thrust movement dynamics.

Keywords: earthquake mitigation, out-of-sequence thrust, satellite imagery, seismic recordings, GPS measurements

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: Mohammed El-Arbi Khalfallah, Mohamed Lakhdar Hadji

Abstract:

Managing and controlling risk is a topic research in the world of finance. Before a risky situation, the stakeholders need to do comparison according to the positions and actions, and financial institutions must take measures of a particular market risk and credit. In this work, we study a model of risk measure in finance: Value at Risk (VaR), which is a new tool for measuring an entity's exposure risk. We explain the concept of value at risk, your average, tail, and describe the three methods for computing: Parametric method, Historical method, and numerical method of Monte Carlo. Finally, we briefly describe advantages and disadvantages of the three methods for computing value at risk.

Keywords: average value at risk, conditional value at risk, tail value at risk, value at risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 423