Search results for: asymptotic tail estimate

Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed flood maps based on experts’ experience and estimates of the probability of flooding. Current flood-risk models evaluate flood risk with regional and subjective measures without impact from torrential rain and nuisance flooding at the neighborhood level. Nuisance flooding occurs in small areas in the community, where a few streets or blocks are routinely impacted. This type of flooding event occurs when torrential rainstorm combined with high tide and sea level rise temporarily exceeds a given threshold. In South Florida, this threshold is 1.7 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). The National Weather Service defines torrential rain as rain deposition at a rate greater than 0.3-inches per hour or three inches in a single day. Data from the Florida Climate Center, 1970 to 2020, shows 371 events with more than 3-inches of rain in a day in 612 months. The purpose of this research is to develop a data-driven method to determine comprehensive analytical damage-avoidance criteria that account for nuisance flood events at the single-family home level. The method developed uses the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method from the American Society of Quality (ASQ) to estimate the Damage Avoidance (DA) preparation for a 1-day 100-year storm. The Consequence of Nuisance Flooding (CoNF) is estimated from community mitigation efforts to prevent nuisance flooding damage. The Probability of Nuisance Flooding (PoNF) is derived from the frequency and duration of torrential rainfall causing delays and community disruptions to daily transportation, human illnesses, and property damage. Urbanization and population changes are related to the U.S. Census Bureau's annual population estimates. Data collected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service’s National Resources Inventory (NRI) and locally by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) track the development and land use/land cover changes with time. The intent is to include temporal trends in population density growth and the impact on land development. Results from this investigation provide the risk of nuisance flooding as a function of CoNF and PoNF for coastal areas of South Florida. The data-based criterion provides awareness to local municipalities on their flood-risk assessment and gives insight into flood management actions and watershed development.

Keywords: flood risk, nuisance flooding, urban flooding, FMEA

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Authors: Gautier Girard, Marion Martiny, Sebastien Mercier, Mohamad Jrad, Mohamed-Slim Bahi, Laurent Bodin, Francois Lechleiter, David Nevo, Sophie Dareys

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Reliability of electronic devices has always been of highest interest for Aero-MIL and space applications. In any electronic device, Printed Circuit Board (PCB), providing interconnection between components, is a key for reliability. During the last decades, PCB technologies evolved to sustain and/or fulfill increased original equipment manufacturers requirements and specifications, higher densities and better performances, faster time to market and longer lifetime, newer material and mixed buildups. From the very beginning of the PCB industry up to recently, qualification, experiments and trials, and errors were the most popular methods to assess system (PCB) reliability. Nowadays OEM, PCB manufacturers and scientists are working together in a close relationship in order to develop predictive models for PCB reliability and lifetime. To achieve that goal, it is fundamental to characterize precisely base materials (laminates, electrolytic copper, …), in order to understand failure mechanisms and simulate PCB aging under environmental constraints by means of finite element method for example. The laminates are woven composites and have thus an orthotropic behaviour. The in-plane properties can be measured by combining classical uniaxial testing and digital image correlation. Nevertheless, the out-of-plane properties cannot be evaluated due to the thickness of the laminate (a few hundred of microns). It has to be noted that the knowledge of the out-of-plane properties is fundamental to investigate the lifetime of high density printed circuit boards. A homogenization method combining analytical and numerical approaches has been developed in order to obtain the complete elastic orthotropic behaviour of a woven composite from its precise 3D internal structure and its experimentally measured in-plane elastic properties. Since the mechanical properties of the resin surrounding the fibres are unknown, an inverse method is proposed to estimate it. The methodology has been applied to one laminate used in hyperfrequency spatial applications in order to get its elastic orthotropic behaviour at different temperatures in the range [-55°C; +125°C]. Next; numerical simulations of a plated through hole in a double sided PCB are performed. Results show the major importance of the out-of-plane properties and the temperature dependency of these properties on the lifetime of a printed circuit board. Acknowledgements—The support of the French ANR agency through the Labcom program ANR-14-LAB7-0003-01, support of CNES, Thales Alenia Space and Cimulec is acknowledged.

Keywords: homogenization, orthotropic behaviour, printed circuit board, woven composites

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Authors: Supria Sarkar, Vasit Sagan, Sourav Bhadra, Meghnath Pokharel, Felix B.Fritschi

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Soybean and their derivatives are very important agricultural commodities around the world because of their wide applicability in human food, animal feed, biofuel, and industries. However, the significance of soybean production depends on the quality of the soybean seeds rather than the yield alone. Seed composition is widely dependent on plant physiological properties, aerobic and anaerobic environmental conditions, nutrient content, and plant phenological characteristics, which can be captured by high temporal resolution remote sensing datasets. Planet scope (PS) satellite images have high potential in sequential information of crop growth due to their frequent revisit throughout the world. In this study, we estimate soybean seed composition while the plants are in the field by utilizing PlanetScope (PS) satellite images and different machine learning algorithms. Several experimental fields were established with varying genotypes and different seed compositions were measured from the samples as ground truth data. The PS images were processed to extract 462 hand-crafted vegetative and textural features. Four machine learning algorithms, i.e., partial least squares (PLSR), random forest (RFR), gradient boosting machine (GBM), support vector machine (SVM), and two recurrent neural network architectures, i.e., long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) were used in this study to predict oil, protein, sucrose, ash, starch, and fiber of soybean seed samples. The GRU and LSTM architectures had two separate branches, one for vegetative features and the other for textures features, which were later concatenated together to predict seed composition. The results show that sucrose, ash, protein, and oil yielded comparable prediction results. Machine learning algorithms that best predicted the six seed composition traits differed. GRU worked well for oil (R-Squared: of 0.53) and protein (R-Squared: 0.36), whereas SVR and PLSR showed the best result for sucrose (R-Squared: 0.74) and ash (R-Squared: 0.60), respectively. Although, the RFR and GBM provided comparable performance, the models tended to extremely overfit. Among the features, vegetative features were found as the most important variables compared to texture features. It is suggested to utilize many vegetation indices for machine learning training and select the best ones by using feature selection methods. Overall, the study reveals the feasibility and efficiency of PS images and machine learning for plot-level seed composition estimation. However, special care should be given while designing the plot size in the experiments to avoid mixed pixel issues.

Keywords: agriculture, computer vision, data science, geospatial technology

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Authors: Shawn G. Gallaher, Lilli E. Hirth

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As permafrost thaws with the continued warming of the Alaskan North Slope, a progressively thicker active thaw layer is evidently releasing previously sequestered nutrients, metals, and particulate matter exposed to fluvial transport. In this study, we estimate material fluxes on the North Slope of Alaska during the 2019-2022 melt seasons. The watershed of the Alaskan North Slope can be categorized into three regions: mountains, tundra, and coastal plain. Precipitation and discharge data were collected from repeat visits to 14 sample sites for biogeochemical surface water samples, 7 point discharge measurements, 3 project deployed meteorology stations, and 2 U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) continuous discharge observation sites. The timing, intensity, and spatial distribution of precipitation determine the material flux composition in the Sagavanirktok and surrounding bodies of water, with geogenic constituents (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC)) expected from mountain flushed events and biogenic constituents (e.g., dissolved organic compound (DOC)) expected from transitional tundra precipitation events. Project goals include connecting late summer precipitation events to peak discharge to determine the responses of the watershed to localized atmospheric forcing. Field study measurements showed widespread precipitation in August 2019, generating an increase in total suspended solids, dissolved organic carbon, and iron fluxes from the tundra, shifting the main-stem mountain river biogeochemistry toward tundra source characteristics typically only observed during the spring floods. Intuitively, a large-scale precipitation event (as defined by this study as exceeding 12.5 mm of precipitation on a single observation day) would dilute a body of water; however, in this study, concentrations increased with higher discharge responses on several occasions. These large-scale precipitation events continue to produce peak constituent fluxes as the thaw layer increases in depth and late summer precipitation increases, evidenced by 6 large-scale events in July 2022 alone. This increase in late summer events is in sharp contrast to the 3 or fewer large events in July in each of the last 10 years. Changes in precipitation intensity, timing, and location have introduced late summer peak constituent flux events previously confined to the spring freshet.

Keywords: Alaska North Slope, arctic rivers, material flux, precipitation

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Authors: N. Szczepanska, B. Kudlak, G. Yotova, S. Tsakovski, J. Namiesnik

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In the scientific literature related to the widely understood issue of packaging materials designed to have contact with food (food contact materials), there is much information on raw materials used for their production, as well as their physiochemical properties, types, and parameters. However, not much attention is given to the issues concerning migration of toxic substances from packaging and its actual influence on the health of the final consumer, even though health protection and food safety are the priority tasks. The goal of this study was to estimate the impact of particular foodstuff packaging type, food production, and storage conditions on the degree of leaching of potentially toxic compounds and endocrine disruptors to foodstuffs using the acute toxicity test Microtox and XenoScreen YES YAS assay. The selected foodstuff packaging materials were metal cans used for fish storage and tetrapak. Five stimulants respectful to specific kinds of food were chosen in order to assess global migration: distilled water for aqueous foods with a pH above 4.5; acetic acid at 3% in distilled water for acidic aqueous food with pH below 4.5; ethanol at 5% for any food that may contain alcohol; dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) and artificial saliva were used in regard to the possibility of using it as an simulation medium. For each packaging three independent variables (temperature and contact time) factorial design simulant was performed. Xenobiotics migration from epoxy resins was studied at three different temperatures (25°C, 65°C, and 121°C) and extraction time of 12h, 48h and 2 weeks. Such experimental design leads to 9 experiments for each food simulant as conditions for each experiment are obtained by combination of temperature and contact time levels. Each experiment was run in triplicate for acute toxicity and in duplicate for estrogen disruption potential determination. Multi-factor analysis of variation (MANOVA) was used to evaluate the effects of the three main factors solvent, temperature (temperature regime for cup), contact time and their interactions on the respected dependent variable (acute toxicity or estrogen disruption potential). From all stimulants studied the most toxic were can and tetrapak lining acetic acid extracts that are indication for significant migration of toxic compounds. This migration increased with increase of contact time and temperature and justified the hypothesis that food products with low pH values cause significant damage internal resin filling. Can lining extracts of all simulation medias excluding distilled water and artificial saliva proved to contain androgen agonists even at 25°C and extraction time of 12h. For tetrapak extracts significant endocrine potential for acetic acid, DMSO and saliva were detected.

Keywords: food packaging, extraction, migration, toxicity, biotest

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Authors: Jakub Stelina, Janina Ciechanowicz-McLean

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Fifty years of existence and development of international environmental law brought a deep disappointment with efficiency and effectiveness of traditional command and control mechanisms of environmental regulation. Agenda 21 agreed during the first Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro 1992 was one of the first international documents, which explicitly underlined the importance of public participation in environmental protection. This participation includes also the initiatives undertaken by business corporations in the form of private environmental standards setting. Twenty years later during the Rio 20+ Earth Summit the private sector obligations undertaken during the negotiations have proven to be at least as important as the ones undertaken by the governments. The private sector has taken the leading role in environmental standard setting. Among the research methods used in the article two are crucial in the analysis. The comparative analysis of law is the instrument used in the article to analyse the practice of states and private business companies in the field of sustainable development. The article uses economic analysis of law to estimate the costs and benefits of Corporate Social Responsibility Projects in the field of environmental protection. The study is based on the four premises. First is the role of social dialogue, which is crucial for both Corporate Social Responsibility and modern environmental protection regulation. The Aarhus Convention creates a procedural environmental human right to participate in administrative procedures of law setting and environmental decisions making. The public participation in environmental impact assessment is nowadays a universal standard. Second argument is about the role of precaution as a principle of modern environmental regulation. This principle can be observed both in governmental regulatory undertakings and also private initiatives within the Corporate Social Responsibility environmental projects. Even in the jurisdictions which are relatively reluctant to use the principle of preventive action in environmental regulation, the companies often use this standard in their own private business standard setting initiatives. This is often due to the fact that soft law standards are used as the basis for private Corporate Social Responsibility regulatory initiatives. Third premise is about the role of ecological education in environmental protection. Many soft law instruments underline the importance of environmental education. Governments use environmental education only to the limited extent due to the costs of such projects and problems with effects assessment. Corporate Social Responsibility uses various means of ecological education as the basis of their actions in the field of environmental protection. Last but not least Sustainable development is a goal of both legal protection of the environment, and economic instruments of companies development. Modern environmental protection law uses to the increasing extent the Corporate Social Responsibility. This may be the consequence of the limits of hard law regulation. Corporate Social Responsibility is nowadays not only adapting to soft law regulation of environmental protection but also creates such standards by itself, showing new direction for development of international environmental law. Corporate Social Responsibility in environmental protection can be good investment in future development of the company.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, environmental CSR, environmental justice, stakeholders dialogue

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Authors: Barnali Thakuria, Labananda Choudhury

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Gender equality and women’s empowerment is one of the components of eight Millennium Development Goal (MDG).Literacy and employment are the parameters which reflect the empowerment of women. But in a developing country like India, literacy and working status among the females are not satisfactory. Both literacy and employment technically can be measured by Literate Life Expectancy (LLE) and Working Life Expectancy (WLE).One can also combine both the factors literacy and working to get a better new measure. The proposed indicator can be called literate-working life expectancy (LWLE). LLE gives an average number of years a person lives in a literate state under current mortality and literacy conditions while WLE defined as average number of years a person lives in a working state if current mortality and working condition prevails. Similarly, LWLE gives number of expected years by a person living under both literate and working state. The situation of females cannot be figured out without comparing both the sexes. In the present paper an attempt has been made to estimate LLE and WLE in India along with some selected states from various zones of India namely Assam from the North-East, Gujarat from the West, Kerala from the South, Rajasthan from the North, Uttar Pradesh from the Central and West Bengal from the East respectively for both the sexes based on 2011 census. Furthermore, we have also developed a formula for a new indicator namely Literate-Working Life Expectancy (LWLE) and the proposed index has been applied in India and the selected states mentioned above for both males and females. Data has been extracted from SRS(Sample Registration System) based Abridged Life Table and Census of India. The computation of LLE follows the method developed by Lutz while WLE has followed the method developed by Saw Swee Hock. By combining both the factors literacy and employment, the new indicator LWLE also follows the method like LLE and WLE. Contrasted results have been found in different parts of India. The result shows that LLE at birth is highest(lowest) in the state Kerala(Uttar Pradesh) with 61.66 (39.51) years among the males. A similar situation is also observed among the females with 62.58 years and 25.11 years respectively. But male WLE at birth is highest (lowest) in Rajasthan(Kerala) with 37.11 (32.64) years. Highest female WLE at birth is also observed in Rajasthan with 23.51 years and the lowest is concentrated in Uttar Pradesh with 11.76 years. It is also found that Kerala’s performance is exceptionally good in terms of LWLE at birth while the lowest LWLE at birth prevails in the state Uttar Pradesh among the males. Female LWLE at birth is highest(lowest) in Kerala(Uttar Pradesh) with 19.73(4.77)years. The corresponding value of the index increases as the number of factors involved in the life expectancy decrease. It is found that women are lagging behind in terms of both literacy and employment. Findings of the study will help the planners to take necessary steps to improve the position of women.

Keywords: life expectancy, literacy, literate life expectancy, working life expectancy

Procedia PDF Downloads 421

Authors: G. C. Santini, C. Potrich, L. Lunelli, L. Vanzetti, S. Marasso, M. Cocuzza, C. Pederzolli

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The relevance of circulating miRNAs as non-invasive biomarkers for several pathologies is nowadays undoubtedly clear, as they have been found to have both diagnostic and prognostic value able to add fundamental information to patients’ clinical picture. The availability of these data, however, relies on a time-consuming process spanning from the sample collection and processing to the data analysis. In light of this, strategies which are able to ease this procedure are in high demand and considerable effort have been made in developing Lab-on-a-chip (LOC) devices able to speed up and standardise the bench work. In this context, a very promising polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS)-based microdevice which integrates the processing of the biological sample, i.e. purification of extracellular miRNAs, and reverse transcription was previously developed in our lab. In this study, we aimed at the improvement of the miRNA extraction performances of this micro device by increasing the ability of its surface to absorb extracellular miRNAs from biological samples. For this purpose, we focused on the modulation of two properties of the material: roughness and charge. PDMS surface roughness was modulated by casting with several templates (terminated with silicon oxide coated by a thin anti-adhesion aluminum layer), followed by a panel of curing conditions. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) was employed to estimate changes at the nanometric scale. To introduce modifications in surface charge we functionalized PDMS with different mixes of positively charged 3-aminopropyltrimethoxysilanes (APTMS) and neutral poly(ethylene glycol) silane (PEG). The surface chemical composition was characterized by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and the number of exposed primary amines was quantified with the reagent sulfosuccinimidyl-4-o-(4,4-dimethoxytrityl) butyrate (s-SDTB). As our final end point, the adsorption rate of all these different conditions was assessed by fluorescence microscopy by incubating a synthetic fluorescently-labeled miRNA. Our preliminary analysis identified casting on thermally grown silicon oxide, followed by a curing step at 85°C for 1 hour, as the most efficient technique to obtain a PDMS surface roughness in the nanometric scaleable to trap miRNA. In addition, functionalisation with 0.1% APTMS and 0.9% PEG was found to be a necessary step to significantly increase the amount of microRNA adsorbed on the surface, therefore, available for further steps as on-chip reverse transcription. These findings show a substantial improvement in the extraction efficiency of our PDMS microdevice, ultimately leading to an important step forward in the development of an innovative, easy-to-use and integrated system for the direct purification of less abundant circulating microRNAs.

Keywords: circulating miRNAs, diagnostics, Lab-on-a-chip, polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS)

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Authors: Tatiana S. Ogneva

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Aluminum and nickel-based intermetallic compounds have attracted the attention of scientific community as promising materials for heat-resistant and wear-resistant coatings in such manufacturing areas as microelectronics, aircraft and rocket building and chemical industries. Magnetron sputtering makes possible to coat materials without formation of liquid phase and improves the mechanical and functional properties of nickel aluminides due to the possibility of nanoscale structure formation. The purpose of the study is the investigation of structure and properties of intermetallic coatings produced by magnetron sputtering technique. The feature of this work is the using of composite targets for sputtering, which were consisted of two semicircular sectors of cp-Ni and cp-Al. Plates of alumina, silicon, titanium and steel alloys were used as substrates. To estimate sputtering conditions on structure of intermetallic coatings, a series of samples were produced and studied in detail using scanning and transition electron microcopy and X-Ray diffraction. Besides, nanohardness and scratching tests were carried out. The varying parameters were the distance from the substrate to the target, the duration and the power of the sputtering. The thickness of the obtained intermetallic coatings varied from 0.05 to 0.5 mm depending on the sputtering conditions. The X-ray diffraction data indicated that the formation of intermetallic compounds occurred after sputtering without additional heat treatment. Sputtering at a distance not closer than 120 mm led to the formation of NiAl phase. Increase in the power of magnetron from 300 to 900 W promoted the increase of heterogeneity of the phase composition and the appearance of intermetallic phases NiAl, Ni₂Al₃, NiAl₃, and Al under the aluminum side, and NiAl, Ni₃Al, and Ni under the nickel side of the target. A similar trend is observed with increasing the distance of sputtering from 100 to 60 mm. The change in the phase composition correlates with the changing of the atomic composition of the coatings. Scanning electron microscopy revealed that the coatings have a nanoscale grain structure. In this case, the substrate material and the distance from the substrate to the magnetron have a significant effect on the structure formation process. The size of nanograins differs from 10 to 83 nm and depends not only on the sputtering modes but also on material of a substrate. Nanostructure of the material influences the level of mechanical properties. The highest level of nanohardness of the coatings deposited during 30 minutes on metallic substrates at a distance of 100 mm reached 12 GPa. It was shown that nanohardness depends on the grain size of the intermetallic compound. Scratching tests of the coatings showed a high level of adhesion of the coating to substrate without any delamination and cracking. The results of the study showed that magnetron sputtering of composite targets consisting of nickel and aluminum semicircles makes it possible to form intermetallic coatings with good mechanical properties directly in the process of sputtering without additional heat treatment.

Keywords: intermetallic coatings, magnetron sputtering, mechanical properties, structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Geday Elias, Montaigne Etienne, Padilla Martine, Tollossa Degefa

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Smallholder farmers’ participation in agricultural value chain identified as a pathway to get out of poverty trap in Ethiopia. The smallholder dairy activities have a huge potential in poverty reduction through enhancing income, achieving food and nutritional security in the country. However, much less is known about the effects of smallholder’s participation in milk value chain on household food security and nutrition. This paper therefore, aims at evaluating the effects of smallholders’ participation in milk value chain on household food security taking in to account the four pillars of food security measurements (availability, access, utilization and stability). Using a semi-structured interview, a cross sectional farm household data collected from a randomly selected sample of 333 households (170 in Amhara and 163 in Oromia regions).Binary logit and propensity score matching( PSM) models are employed to examine the mechanisms through which smallholder’s participation in the milk value chain affects household food security where crop production, per capita calorie intakes, diet diversity score, and food insecurity access scale are used to measure food availability, access, utilization and stability respectively. Our findings reveal from 333 households, only 34.5% of smallholder farmers are participated in the milk value chain. Limited access to inputs and services, limited access to inputs markets and high transaction costs are key constraints for smallholders’ limited access to the milk value chain. To estimate the true average participation effects of milk value chain for participated households, the outcome variables (food security) of farm households who participated in milk value chain are compared with the outcome variables if the farm households had not participated. The PSM analysis reveals smallholder’s participation in milk value chain has a significant positive effect on household income, food security and nutrition. Smallholder farmers who are participated in milk chain are better by 15 quintals crops production and 73 percent of per capita calorie intakes in food availability and access respectively than smallholder farmers who are not participated in the market. Similarly, the participated households are better in dietary quality by 112 percents than non-participated households. Finally, smallholders’ who are participated in milk value chain are better in reducing household vulnerability to food insecurity by an average of 130 percent than non participated households. The results also shows income earned from milk value chain participation contributed to reduce capital’s constraints of the participated households’ by higher farm income and total household income by 5164 ETB and 14265 ETB respectively. This study therefore, confirms the potential role of smallholders’ participation in food value chain to get out of poverty trap through improving rural household income, food security and nutrition. Therefore, identified the determinants of smallholder participation in milk value chain and the participation effects on food security in the study areas are worth considering as a positive knock for policymakers and development agents to tackle the poverty trap in the study area in particular and in the country in general.

Keywords: effects, food security and nutrition, milk, participation, smallholders, value chain

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Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Shunqi Pan

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Groundwater is a vital water resource in many areas in the world, particularly in the Middle-East region where the water resources become scarce and depleting. Sustainable management and planning of the groundwater resources become essential and urgent given the impact of the global climate change. In the recent years, numerical models have been widely used to predict the flow pattern and assess the water resources security, as well as the groundwater quality affected by the contaminants transported. In this study, MODFLOW is used to study the current status of groundwater resources and the risk of water resource security in the region centred at Al-Najaf City, which is located in the mid-west of Iraq and adjacent to the Euphrates River. In this study, a conceptual model is built using the geologic and hydrogeologic collected for the region, together with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data obtained from the "Global Land Cover Facility" (GLCF) and "United State Geological Survey" (USGS) for the study area. The computer model is also implemented with the distributions of 69 wells in the area with the steady pro-defined hydraulic head along its boundaries. The model is then applied with the recharge rate (from precipitation) of 7.55 mm/year, given from the analysis of the field data in the study area for the period of 1980-2014. The hydraulic conductivity from the measurements at the locations of wells is interpolated for model use. The model is calibrated with the measured hydraulic heads at the locations of 50 of 69 wells in the domain and results show a good agreement. The standard-error-of-estimate (SEE), root-mean-square errors (RMSE), Normalized RMSE and correlation coefficient are 0.297 m, 2.087 m, 6.899% and 0.971 respectively. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out, and it is found that the model is sensitive to recharge, particularly when the rate is greater than (15mm/year). Hydraulic conductivity is found to be another parameter which can affect the results significantly, therefore it requires high quality field data. The results show that there is a general flow pattern from the west to east of the study area, which agrees well with the observations and the gradient of the ground surface. It is found that with the current operational pumping rates of the wells in the area, a dry area is resulted in Al-Najaf City due to the large quantity of groundwater withdrawn. The computed water balance with the current operational pumping quantity shows that the Euphrates River supplies water into the groundwater of approximately 11759 m3/day, instead of gaining water of 11178 m3/day from the groundwater if no pumping from the wells. It is expected that the results obtained from the study can provide important information for the sustainable and effective planning and management of the regional groundwater resources for Al-Najaf City.

Keywords: Al-Najaf city, conceptual modelling, groundwater, unconfined aquifer, visual MODFLOW

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Authors: Kibret Berhanu Getinet

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Off-farm income diversification by farm rural households has gained the attention of researchers and policymakers due to the fact that agriculture failed to meet the needs of people in developing countries like Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to investigate income diversification strategies into off-farm activities among rural households in Hawassa Zuria Woreda, Sidama National Regional State, Ethiopia. The study used primary and secondary data sources for the primary data collection questionnaire employed as a data collection instrument. A multistage sampling technique was used to collect data from a total of 197 sample households from four kebeles of the study area. Descriptive statistics, as well as econometrics methods of data analysis, were employed. The descriptive statistics result indicates that the majority of sample rural households (68.53 %) have engaged in off-farm income diversification activities while the remaining 31.47% of households did not participate in the diversification in the study area. The choice of participants among the strategies indicates that 6.60% of respondents participated in off-farm wage employment, 30.46% participated in off-farm self-employment, and about 31.47% of them participated in both off-farm wage employment. The study revealed that the share of off-farm income in total annual earnings of households was about 48.457%, and thus, the off-farm diversification significantly contributes to the rural household income. Moreover, binary and multinomial logistic regression models were employed to identify factors that affect the participation and the choices of the off-farm income diversification strategies, respectively. The binary logit model result indicated that agro-ecological zone, education status of the households, available technical skills of the household, household saving, total livestock owned by the households, access to electricity, road access and being married of household head were significant and positively affected the chance of diversification in off-farm activities while the on-farm income of households is negatively affected the chance of diversification. Similarly, the multinomial logistic regression model estimate revealed that agroecological zone, on-farm income, available technical skills, household savings, and access to electricity are positively related and significantly influenced the household’s choice of employment into off-farm wage employment. The off-farm self-employment diversification choice is significantly influenced by on-farm income, available technical skills, household savings, total livestock owned, and access to electricity. Moreover, the result showed that the factors that affect the choice of farm households to engage in both off-farm wage and self-employment are ecological zone, education status, on-farm income, available technical skills, household own saving, market access, total livestock owned, access to electricity and road access. Thus, due attention should be given to addressing the demographic, socio-economic, and institutional constraints to strengthen off-farm income diversification strategies to improve the income of rural households.

Keywords: off-farm, incoem, diversification, logit model

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Authors: M. K. Sheikh, Y. M. Laghari., P. K. Lashari., N. T. Narejo

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The Indus River is one of the longest important rivers of the world in Asia that flows southward through Pakistan, merges into the Arabian Sea near the port city of Karachi in Sindh Province, and forms the Indus Delta. Fish are an important resource for humans worldwide, especially as food. In fish, healthy nutriments are present which are not found in any other meat source because it have a huge quantity of omega- 3 fatty acids, which are very essential for the human body. Ichthyologic surveys were conducted to explore the diversity of freshwater fishes, distribution, abundance and current status of the fishes at different spatial scale of the downstream, Indus River. Total eight stations were selected namely Railo Miyan (RM), Karokho (Kk), Khanpur (Kp), Mullakatiyar (Mk), Wasi Malook Shah (WMS), Branch Morie (BM), Sujawal (Sj) and Jangseer (JS). The study was carried in the period of January 2016 to December 2019 to identify River and biodiversity threats and to suggest recommendations for conservation. The data were analysed by different population diversity index. Altogether, 124 species were recorded belonging to 12 Orders and 43 Families from the downstream of Indus River. Among 124 species, 29% belong to high commercial value and 35% were trash fishes. 31% of fishes were identified as marine/estuarine origin (migratory) and 05% were exotic fish species. Perciformes is the most predominated order, contributing to 41% of families. Among 43 families, the family Cyprinidae was the richest family from all localities of downstream, represented by 24% of fish species demonstrating a significant dominance in the number of species. A significant difference was observed for species abundance in between all sites, the maximum abundance species were found at first location RM having 115 species and minimum observed at the last station JS 56 genera. In the recorded Ichthyofauna, seven groups were found according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature status (IUCN), where a high species ratio was collected, in Least Concern (LC) having 94 species, 11 were found as not evaluated (NE), whereas 8 was identified as near threatened (NT), 1 was recorded as critically endangered (CR), 11 were collected as data deficient (DD), and while 8 was observed as vulnerable (VU) and 3 endangered (EN) species. Different diversity index has been used extensively in environmental studies to estimate the species richness and abundance of ecosystems outputs of their wellness; a positive environment (biodiversity rich) with species at RM had an environmental wellness and biodiversity levels of 4.566% while a negative control environment (biodiversity poor) on last station JS had an environmental wellness and biodiversity levels of 3.931%. The status of fish biodiversity and river has been found under serious threat. Due to the lower diversity of fishes, it became not only venerable for fish but also risky for fishermen. Necessary steps are recommended to protect the biodiversity by conducting further conservative research in this area.

Keywords: ichthyofaunal biodiversity, threatened species, diversity index, Indus River downstream

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Authors: Henry Venter, Murali Thyloth, Alceu Casseb

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Historically, mental and substance use disorders were not a global health priority. Since the 1993 World Development Report, the importance of the contribution of mental health and substance abuse on the relative global burden associated with disease morbidity has been recognized with 300 million people worldwide suffering from depression alone. This led to an international effort to improve the mental health of populations around the world. Despite these efforts some countries remain at the top of the list of countries with the highest rate of mental illness. Important research questions were asked: Would there be commonalities regarding mental health between these countries; would there be common factors leading to the high prevalence of mental illness; and how prepared are these countries with mental health delivery? Findings from this research can aid organizations and institutions preparing mental health service providers to focus training and preparation to address specific needs revealed by the study. Methods: Researchers decided to compare three distinctly different countries at the top of the list of countries with the highest rate of mental illness, the USA, India and Brazil, situated on three different continents with different economies and lifestyles. Data were collected using archival research methodology, reviewing records and findings of international and national health and mental health studies to subtract and compare data and findings. Results: The findings indicated that India is the most depressed country in the world, followed by the USA (and China) with Brazil in Latin America with the greatest number of depressed individuals. By 2020 roughly 20% of India, acountry of over one billion citizens, will suffer from some form of mental illnees, yet there are less than 4,000 experts available. In the USA 164.8 million people were substance abusers and an estimate of 47.6 million adults, 18 or older, had any mental illness in 2018. That means that about one in five adults in the USA experiences some form of mental illness each year, but only 41% of those affected received mental health care or services in the past year. Brazil has the greatest number of depressed individuals, in Latin America. Adults living in Sao Paulo megacity has prevalence of mental disorders at greater levels than similar surveys conducted in other areas of the world with more than one million adults with serious impairment levels. Discussion: The results show that, despite the vast socioeconomic differences between the three countries, there are correlations regarding mental health prevalence and difficulty to provide adequate services including a lack of awareness of how serious mental illness is, stigma for seeking mental illness, with comorbidity a common phenomenon, and a lack of partnership between different levels of service providers, which weakens mental health service delivery. The findings also indicate that mental health training institutions have a monumental task to prepare personnel to address the future mental health needs in each of the countries compared, which will constitute the next phase of the research.

Keywords: mental health epidemiology, mental health disorder, mental health prevalence, mental health treatment

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Authors: P.P. Rupasinghe, A.H. Farid

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The Aleutian mink disease virus (AMDV, Carnivore amdoparvovirus 1) causes persistent infection, plasmacytosis, and formation and deposition of immune complexes in various organs in adult mink, leading to glomerulonephritis, arteritis and sometimes death. The disease has no cure nor an effective vaccine, and identification and culling of mink positive for anti-AMDV antibodies have not been successful in controlling the infection in many countries. The failure to eradicate the virus from infected farms may be caused by keeping false-negative individuals on the farm, virus transmission from wild animals, or neighboring farms. The identification of sources of infection, which can be performed by comparing viral sequences, is important in the success of viral eradication programs. High mutation rates could cause inaccuracies when viral sequences are used to trace back an infection to its origin. There is no published information on the mutation rate of AMDV either in vivo or in vitro. The in vivo estimation is the most accurate method, but it is difficult to perform because of the inherent technical complexities, namely infecting live animals, the unknown numbers of viral generations (i.e., infection cycles), the removal of deleterious mutations over time and genetic drift. The objective of this study was to determine the mutation rate of AMDV on which no information was available. A homogenate was prepared from the spleen of one naturally infected American mink (Neovison vison) from Nova Scotia, Canada (parental template). The near full-length genome of this isolate (91.6%, 4,143 bp) was bidirectionally sequenced. A group of black mink was inoculated with this homogenate (descendant mink). Spleen sampled were collected from 10 descendant mink after 16 weeks post-inoculation (wpi) and from anther 10 mink after 176 wpi, and their near-full length genomes were bi-directionally sequenced. Sequences of these mink were compared with each other and with the sequence of the parental template. The number of nucleotide substitutions at 176 wpi was 3.1 times greater than that at 16 wpi (113 vs 36) whereas the estimates of mutation rate at 176 wpi was 3.1 times lower than that at 176 wpi (2.85×10-3 vs 9.13×10-4 substitutions/ site/ year), showing a decreasing trend in the mutation rate per unit of time. Although there is no report on in vivo estimate of the mutation rate of DNA viruses in animals using the same method which was used in the current study, these estimates are at the higher range of reported values for DNA viruses determined by various techniques. These high estimates are logical based on the wide range of diversity and pathogenicity of AMDV isolates. The results suggest that increases in the number of nucleotide substitutions over time and subsequent divergence make it difficult to accurately trace back AMDV isolates to their origin when several years elapsed between the two samplings.

Keywords: Aleutian mink disease virus, American mink, mutation rate, nucleotide substitution

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Authors: Lopamudra D. Satpathy, Bani Chatterjee, Jitendra Mahakud

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The rapid economic growth in terms of output and investment necessitates a substantial growth of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of firms which is an indicator of an economy’s technological change. The strong empirical relationship between financial sector development and economic growth clearly indicates that firms financing decisions do affect their levels of output via their investment decisions. Hence it establishes a linkage between the financial factors and productivity growth of the firms. To achieve the smooth and continuous economic growth over time, it is imperative to understand the financial channel that serves as one of the vital channels. The theoretical or logical argument behind this linkage is that when the internal financial capital is not sufficient enough for the investment, the firms always rely upon the external sources of finance. But due to the frictions and existence of information asymmetric behavior, it is always costlier for the firms to raise the external capital from the market, which in turn affect their investment sentiment and productivity. This kind of financial position of the firms puts heavy pressure on their productive activities. Keeping in view this theoretical background, the present study has tried to analyze the role of both external and internal financial factors (leverage, cash flow and liquidity) on the determination of total factor productivity of the firms of manufacturing industry and its sub-industries, maintaining a set of firm specific variables as control variables (size, age and disembodied technological intensity). An estimate of total factor productivity of the Indian manufacturing industry and sub-industries is computed using a semi-parametric approach, i.e., Levinsohn- Petrin method. It establishes the relationship between financial factors and productivity growth of 652 firms using a dynamic panel GMM method covering the time period between 1997-98 and 2012-13. From the econometric analyses, it has been found that the internal cash flow has a positive and significant impact on the productivity of overall manufacturing sector. The other financial factors like leverage and liquidity also play the significant role in the determination of total factor productivity of the Indian manufacturing sector. The significant role of internal cash flow on determination of firm-level productivity suggests that access to external finance is not available to Indian companies easily. Further, the negative impact of leverage on productivity could be due to the less developed bond market in India. These findings have certain implications for the policy makers to take various policy reforms to develop the external bond market and easily workout through which the financially constrained companies will be able to raise the financial capital in a cost-effective manner and would be able to influence their investments in the highly productive activities, which would help for the acceleration of economic growth.

Keywords: dynamic panel, financial factors, manufacturing sector, total factor productivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 332

Authors: Carine Platat, Fatima Qshadi, Ghofran Kayed, Nour Hussein, Amjad Jarrar, Habiba Ali

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Nowadays, smartphones are very popular. They are offering a variety of easy-to-use and free applications among which step counters and fitness tests. The number of users is huge making of such applications a potentially efficient new strategy to encourage people to become more active. Nonetheless, data on their reliability and validity are very scarce and when available, they are often negative and contradictory. Besides, weight status, which is likely to introduce a bias in the physical activity assessment, was not often considered. Hence, the use of these applications as motivational tool, assessment tool and in research is questionable. PACER is one of the free step counters application. Even though it is one of the best rated free application by users, it has never been tested for reliability and validity. Prior any use of PACER, this remains to be investigated. The objective of this work is to investigate the reliability and validity of the smartphone application PACER in measuring the number of steps and in assessing the cardiorespiratory fitness by the 6 minutes walking test. 20 overweight or obese students (10 male and 10 female) were recruited at the United Arab Emirate University, aged between 18 and 25 years old. Reliability and validity were tested in real life conditions and in controlled conditions by using a treadmill. Test-retest experiments were done with PACER on 2 days separated by a week in real life conditions (24 hours each time) and in controlled conditions (30 minutes on treadmill, 3km/h). Validity was tested against the pedometer OMRON in the same conditions. During treadmill test, video was recorded and steps numbers were compared between PACER, pedometer and video. The validity of PACER in estimating the cardiorespiratory fitness (VO2max) as part of the 6 minutes walking test (6MWT) was studied against the 20m shuttle running test. Reliability was studied by calculating intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), 95% confidence interval (95%CI) and by Bland-Altman plots. Validity was studied by calculating Spearman correlation coefficient (rho) and Bland-Altman plots. PACER reliability was good in both male and female in real life conditions (p≤10-3) but only in female in controlled conditions (p=0.01). PACER was valid against OMRON pedometer in male and female in real life conditions (rho=0.94, p≤10-3 ; rho=0.64, p=0.01, in male and female respectively). In controlled conditions, PACER was not valid against pedometer. But, PACER was valid against video in female (rho=0.72, p≤10-3). PACER was valid against the shuttle run test in male and female (rho-=0.66, p=0.01 ; rho=0.51, p=0.04) to estimate VO2max. This study provides data on the reliability and viability of PACER in overweight or obese male and female young adults. Globally, PACER was shown as reliable and valid in real life conditions in overweight or obese male and female to count steps and assess fitness. This supports the use of PACER to assess and promote physical activity in clinical follow-up and community interventions.

Keywords: smartphone application, pacer, reliability, validity, steps, fitness, physical activity

Procedia PDF Downloads 452

Authors: A. A. Purohit, A. Basu, K. A. Chavan, M. D. Kudale

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Many estuarine harbours in the world are facing the problem of siltation in docks, channel entrances, etc. The harbours in India are not an exception and require maintenance dredging to achieve navigable depths for keeping them operable. Hence, dredging is inevitable and is a costly affair. The heavy siltation in docks in well mixed tide dominated estuaries is mainly due to settlement of cohesive sediments in suspension. As such there is a need to have a permanent solution for minimising the siltation in such docks to alter the hydrodynamic flow field responsible for siltation by constructing structures outside the dock. One of such docks on the west coast of India, wherein siltation of about 2.5-3 m/annum prevails, was considered to understand the hydrodynamic flow field responsible for siltation. The dock is situated in such a region where macro type of semi-diurnal tide (range of about 5m) prevails. In order to change the flow field responsible for siltation inside the dock, suitability of Current Deflecting Wall (CDW) outside the dock was studied, which will minimise the sediment exchange rate and siltation in the dock. The well calibrated physical tidal model was used to understand the flow field during various phases of tide for the existing dock in Mumbai harbour. At the harbour entrance where the tidal flux exchanges in/out of the dock, measurements on water level and current were made to estimate the sediment transport capacity. The distorted scaled model (1:400 (H) & 1:80 (V)) of Mumbai area was used to study the tidal flow phenomenon, wherein tides are generated by automatic tide generator. Hydraulic model studies carried out under the existing condition (without CDW) reveal that, during initial hours of flood tide, flow hugs the docks breakwater and part of flow which enters the dock forms number of eddies of varying sizes inside the basin, while remaining part of flow bypasses the entrance of dock. During ebb, flow direction reverses, and part of the flow re-enters the dock from outside and creates eddies at its entrance. These eddies do not allow water/sediment-mass to come out and result in settlement of sediments in dock both due to eddies and more retention of sediment. At latter hours, current strength outside the dock entrance reduces and allows the water-mass of dock to come out. In order to improve flow field inside the dockyard, two CDWs of length 300 m and 40 m were proposed outside the dock breakwater and inline to Pier-wall at dock entrance. Model studies reveal that, during flood, major flow gets deflected away from the entrance and no eddies are formed inside the dock, while during ebb flow does not re-enter the dock, and sediment flux immediately starts emptying it during initial hours of ebb. This reduces not only the entry of sediment in dock by about 40% but also the deposition by about 42% due to less retention. Thus, CDW is a promising solution to significantly reduce siltation in dock.

Keywords: current deflecting wall, eddies, hydraulic model, macro tide, siltation

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Authors: Bill D. Geis

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Suicide wrongful death forensic cases are the fastest rising tort in mental health law. It is estimated that suicide-related cases have accounted for 15% of U.S. malpractice claims since 2006. Most suicide-related personal injury claims fall into the legal category of “wrongful death.” Though mental health experts may be called on to address a range of forensic questions in wrongful death cases, the central consultation that most experts provide is about the negligence element—specifically, the issue of whether the clinician met the clinical standard of care in assessing, treating, and managing the deceased person’s mental health care. Standards of care, varying from U.S. state to state, are broad and address what a reasonable clinician might do in a similar circumstance. This fact leaves the issue of the suicide standard of care, in each case, up to forensic experts to put forth a reasoned estimate of what the standard of care should have been in the specific case under litigation. Because the general state guidelines for standard of care are broad, forensic experts are readily retained to provide scientific and clinical opinions about whether or not a clinician met the standard of care in their suicide assessment, treatment, and management of the case. In the past and in much of current practice, the assessment of suicide has centered on the elicitation of verbalized suicide ideation. Research in recent years, however, has indicated that the majority of persons who end their lives do not say they are suicidal at their last medical or psychiatric contact. Near-term risk assessment—that goes beyond verbalized suicide ideation—is needed. Our previous research employed structural equation modeling to predict lethal suicide risk--eight negative thought patterns (feeling like a burden on others, hopelessness, self-hatred, etc.) mediated by nine transdiagnostic clinical factors (mental torment, insomnia, substance abuse, PTSD intrusions, etc.) were combined to predict acute lethal suicide risk. This structural equation model, the Lethal Suicide Risk Pattern (LSRP), Acute model, had excellent goodness-of-fit [χ2(df) = 94.25(47)***, CFI = .98, RMSEA = .05, .90CI = .03-.06, p(RMSEA = .05) = .63. AIC = 340.25, ***p < .001.]. A further SEQ analysis was completed for this paper, adding a measure of Acute Suicide Ideation to the previous SEQ. Acceptable prediction model fit was no longer achieved [χ2(df) = 3.571, CFI > .953, RMSEA = .075, .90% CI = .065-.085, AIC = 529.550].This finding suggests that, in this additional study, immediate verbalized suicide ideation information was unhelpful in the assessment of lethal risk. The LSRP and other dynamic, near-term risk models (such as the Acute Suicide Affective Disorder Model and the Suicide Crisis Syndrome Model)—going beyond elicited suicide ideation—need to be incorporated into current clinical suicide assessment training. Without this training, the standard of care for suicide assessment is out of sync with current research—an emerging dilemma for the forensic evaluation of suicide wrongful death cases.

Keywords: forensic evaluation, standard of care, suicide, suicide assessment, wrongful death

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Authors: Merve Uzuner Sahin, Kumru D. Atalay, Berna Dengiz

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In today’s competitive market, there are many alternative products that can be used in similar manner and purpose. Therefore, the utility of the product is an important issue for the preferability of the brand. This utility could be measured in terms of its functionality, durability, reliability. These all are affected by the system capabilities. Reliability is an important system design criteria for the manufacturers to be able to have high availability. Availability is the probability that a system (or a component) is operating properly to its function at a specific point in time or a specific period of times. System availability provides valuable input to estimate the production rate for the company to realize the production plan. When considering only the corrective maintenance downtime of the system, mean time between failure (MTBF) and mean time to repair (MTTR) are used to obtain system availability. Also, the MTBF and MTTR values are important measures to improve system performance by adopting suitable maintenance strategies for reliability engineers and practitioners working in a system. Failure and repair time probability distributions of each component in the system should be known for the conventional availability analysis. However, generally, companies do not have statistics or quality control departments to store such a large amount of data. Real events or situations are defined deterministically instead of using stochastic data for the complete description of real systems. A fuzzy set is an alternative theory which is used to analyze the uncertainty and vagueness in real systems. The aim of this study is to present a novel approach to compute system availability using representation of MTBF and MTTR in fuzzy numbers. Based on the experience in the system, it is decided to choose 3 different spread of MTBF and MTTR such as 15%, 20% and 25% to obtain lower and upper limits of the fuzzy numbers. To the best of our knowledge, the proposed method is the first application that is used fuzzy MTBF and fuzzy MTTR for fuzzy system availability estimation. This method is easy to apply in any repairable production system by practitioners working in industry. It is provided that the reliability engineers/managers/practitioners could analyze the system performance in a more consistent and logical manner based on fuzzy availability. This paper presents a real case study of a repairable multi-stage production line in lead-acid battery production factory in Turkey. The following is focusing on the considered wet-charging battery process which has a higher production level than the other types of battery. In this system, system components could exist only in two states, working or failed, and it is assumed that when a component in the system fails, it becomes as good as new after repair. Instead of classical methods, using fuzzy set theory and obtaining intervals for these measures would be very useful for system managers, practitioners to analyze system qualifications to find better results for their working conditions. Thus, much more detailed information about system characteristics is obtained.

Keywords: availability analysis, battery production system, fuzzy sets, triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs)

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: Drago Diaz Aleman, Jose Luis Saorin Perez, Cecile Meier, Itahisa Perez Conesa, Jorge De La Torre Cantero

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Traditional manufacturing techniques used in artistic contexts compete with highly productive and efficient industrial procedures. The craft techniques and associated business models tend to disappear under the pressure of the appearance of mass-produced products that compete in all niche markets, including those traditionally reserved for the work of art. The surplus value derived from the prestige of the author, the exclusivity of the product or the mastery of the artist, do not seem to be sufficient reasons to preserve this productive model. In the last years, the adoption of open source digital manufacturing technologies in small art workshops can favor their permanence by assuming great advantages such as easy accessibility, low cost, and free modification, adapting to specific needs of each workshop. It is possible to use pieces modeled by computer and made with FDM (Fused Deposition Modeling) 3D printers that use PLA (polylactic acid) in the procedures of artistic casting. Models printed by PLA are limited to approximate minimum sizes of 3 cm, and optimal layer height resolution is 0.1 mm. Due to these limitations, it is not the most suitable technology for artistic casting processes of smaller pieces. An alternative to solve size limitation, are printers from the type (SLS) "selective sintering by laser". And other possibility is a laser hardens, by layers, metal powder and called DMLS (Direct Metal Laser Sintering). However, due to its high cost, it is a technology that is difficult to introduce in small artistic foundries. The low-cost DLP (Digital Light Processing) type printers can offer high resolutions for a reasonable cost (around 0.02 mm on the Z axis and 0.04 mm on the X and Y axes), and can print models with castable resins that allow the subsequent direct artistic casting in precious metals or their adaptation to processes such as electroforming. In this work, the design of a DLP 3D printer is detailed, using backlit LCD screens with ultraviolet light. Its development is totally "open source" and is proposed as a kit made up of electronic components, based on Arduino and easy to access mechanical components in the market. The CAD files of its components can be manufactured in low-cost FDM 3D printers. The result is less than 500 Euros, high resolution and open-design with free access that allows not only its manufacture but also its improvement. In future works, we intend to carry out different comparative analyzes, which allow us to accurately estimate the print quality, as well as the real cost of the artistic works made with it.

Keywords: traditional artistic techniques, DLP 3D printer, artistic casting, electroforming

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Amruta D. S. Pathare, Indira Hinduja, Kusum Zaveri

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Implantation failure (IF) even after the good-quality embryo transfer (ET) in the physiologically normal endometrium is the main obstacle in in vitro fertilization (IVF). Various microarray studies have been performed worldwide to elucidate the genes requisite for endometrial receptivity. These studies have included the population based on different phases of menstrual cycle during natural cycle and stimulated cycle in normal fertile women. Additionally, the literature is also available in recurrent implantation failure patients versus oocyte donors in natural cycle. However, for the first time, we aim to study the genomics of endometrial receptivity in IF patients under controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) during which ET is generally practised in IVF. Endometrial gene expression profiling in IF patients (n=10) and oocyte donors (n=8) were compared during window of implantation under COS by whole genome microarray (using Illumina platform). Enrichment analysis of microarray data was performed to determine dys-regulated biological functions and pathways using Database for Annotation, Visualization and Integrated Discovery, v6.8 (DAVID). The enrichment mapping was performed with the help of Cytoscape software. Microarray results were validated by real-time PCR. Localization of genes related to immune response (Progestagen-Associated Endometrial Protein (PAEP), Leukaemia Inhibitory Factor (LIF), Interleukin-6 Signal Transducer (IL6ST) was detected by immunohistochemistry. The study revealed 418 genes downregulated and 519 genes upregulated in IF patients compared to healthy fertile controls. The gene ontology, pathway analysis and enrichment mapping revealed significant downregulation in activation and regulation of immune and inflammation response in IF patients under COS. The lower expression of Progestagen Associated Endometrial Protein (PAEP), Leukemia Inhibitory Factor (LIF) and Interleukin 6 Signal Transducer (IL6ST) in cases compared to controls by real time and immunohistochemistry suggests the functional importance of these genes. The study was proved useful to uncover the probable reason of implantation failure being imbalance of immune and inflammatory regulation in our group of subjects. Based on the present study findings, a panel of significant dysregulated genes related to immune and inflammatory pathways needs to be further substantiated in larger cohort in natural as well as stimulated cycle. Upon which these genes could be screened in IF patients during window of implantation (WOI) before going for embryo transfer or any other immunological treatment. This would help to estimate the regulation of specific immune response during WOI in a patient. The appropriate treatment of either activation of immune response or suppression of immune response can be then attempted in IF patients to enhance the receptivity of endometrium.

Keywords: endometrial receptivity, immune and inflammatory response, gene expression microarray, window of implantation

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Massimiliano Panella, Sara Bortoluzzi, Sophia Russotto, Daniele Nicolini, Carmela Rinaldi

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Osteoporosis affects more than 200 million people worldwide. About 75% of osteoporosis cases are undiagnosed or diagnosed only when a bone fracture occurs. Since osteoporosis related fractures are significant determinants of the burden of disease and health and social costs of aging populations, we believe that this is the early identification and treatment of high-risk patients should be a priority in actual healthcare systems. Screening for osteoporosis by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) is not cost-effective for general population. An alternative is pulse-echo ultrasound (PEUS) because of the minor costs. To this end, we developed an early detection program for osteoporosis with PEUS, and we evaluated is possible impact and sustainability. We conducted a cross-sectional study including 1,050 people in Italy. Subjects with >1 major or >2 minor risk factors for osteoporosis were invited to PEUS bone mass density (BMD) measurement at the proximal tibia. Based on BMD values, subjects were classified as healthy subjects (BMD>0.783 g/cm²) and pathological including subjects with suspected osteopenia (0.783≤BMD>0.719 g/cm²) or osteoporosis (BMD ≤ 0.719 g/cm²). The responder rate was 60.4% (634/1050). According to the risk, PEUS scan was recommended to 436 people, of whom 300 (mean age 45.2, 81% women) accepted to participate. We identified 240 (80%) healthy and 60 (20%) pathological subjects (47 osteopenic and 13 osteoporotic). We observed a significant association between high risk people and reduced bone density (p=0.043) with increased risks for female gender, older ages, and menopause (p<0.01). The yearly cost of the screening program was 8,242 euros. With actual Italian fracture incidence rates in osteoporotic patients, we can reasonably expect in 20 years that at least 6 fractures will occur in our sample. If we consider that the mean costs per fracture in Italy is today 16,785 euros, we can estimate a theoretical cost of 100,710 euros. According to literature, we can assume that the early treatment of osteoporosis could avoid 24,170 euros of such costs. If we add the actual yearly cost of the treatments to the cost of our program and we compare this final amount of 11,682 euros to the avoidable costs of fractures (24,170 euros) we can measure a possible positive benefits/costs ratio of 2.07. As a major outcome, our study let us to early identify 60 people with a significant bone loss that were not aware of their condition. This diagnostic anticipation constitutes an important element of value for the project, both for the patients, for the preventable negative outcomes caused by the fractures, and for the society in general, because of the related avoidable costs. Therefore, based on our finding, we believe that the PEUS based screening performed could be a cost-effective approach to early identify osteoporosis. However, our study has some major limitations. In fact, in our study the economic analysis is based on theoretical scenarios, thus specific studies are needed for a better estimation of the possible benefits and costs of our program.

Keywords: osteoporosis, prevention, public health, screening

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Jodie Lee, Lorena Chan, Esther Tong

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Hong Kong students face a unique learning environment. Starting from the 2010/2011 school year, The Education Bureau (EDB) of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region implemented the fine-tuned Medium of Instruction (MOI) arrangements for secondary schools. Since then, secondary schools in Hong Kong have been given the flexibility to decide the most appropriate MOI arrangements for their schools and under the new academic structure for senior secondary education, particularly on the compulsory part of the mathematics curriculum. In 2019, Hong Kong Diploma of Secondary Education Examination (HKDSE), over 40% of school day candidates attempted the Mathematics Compulsory Part examination in the Chinese version while the rest took the English version. Moreover, only 14.38% of candidates sat for one of the extended Mathematics modules. This results in a serious of intricate issues to students’ learning in post-secondary education programmes. It is worth to note that when students further pursue to an higher education in Hong Kong or even oversea, they may facing substantial difficulties in transiting learning from learning mathematics in their mother tongue in Chinese-medium instruction (CMI) secondary schools to an English-medium learning environment. Some students understood the mathematics concepts were found to fail to fulfill the course requirements at college or university due to their learning experience in secondary study at CMI. They are particularly weak in comprehending the mathematics questions when they are doing their assessment or attempting the test/examination. A government funded project was conducted with the aims of providing integrated learning context and language support to students with a lower level of numeracy and/or with CMI learning experience. By introducing this “integrated concept + language mapping approach”, students can cope with the learning challenges in the compulsory English-medium mathematics and statistics subjects in their tertiary education. Ultimately, in the hope that students can enhance their mathematical ability, analytical skills, and numerical sense for their lifelong learning. The “Concept + Language Mapping “(CLM) approach was adopted and tried out in the bridging courses for students with a lower level of numeracy and/or with CMI learning experiences. At the beginning of each class, a pre-test was conducted, and class time was then devoted to introducing the concepts by CLM approach. For each concept, the key thematic items and their different semantic relations are presented using graphics and animations via the CLM approach. At the end of each class, a post-test was conducted. Quantitative data analysis was performed to study the effect on students’ learning via the CLM approach. Stakeholders' feedbacks were collected to estimate the effectiveness of the CLM approach in facilitating both content and language learning. The results based on both students’ and lecturers’ feedback indicated positive outcomes on adopting the CLM approach to enhance the mathematical ability and analytical skills of CMI students.

Keywords: mathematics, Concept+Language Mapping, level of numeracy, medium of instruction

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Authors: Neeti Nayak, Khalid Duri

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Despite the many advances made in transportation planning, the number of injuries and fatalities in the United States which involve motorized vehicles near intersections remain largely unchanged year over year. Data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for 2018 indicates accidents involving motorized vehicles at traffic intersections accounted for 8,245 deaths and 914,811 injuries. Furthermore, collisions involving pedal cyclists killed 861 people (38% at intersections) and injured 46,295 (68% at intersections), while accidents involving pedestrians claimed 6,247 lives (25% at intersections) and injured 71,887 (56% at intersections)- the highest tallies registered in nearly 20 years. Some of the causes attributed to the rising number of accidents relate to increasing populations and the associated changes in land and traffic usage patterns, insufficient visibility conditions, and inadequate applications of traffic controls. Intersections that were initially designed with a particular land use pattern in mind may be rendered obsolete by subsequent developments. Many accidents involving pedestrians are accounted for by locations which should have been designed for safe crosswalks. Conventional solutions for evaluating intersection safety often require costly deployment of engineering surveys and analysis, which limit the capacity of resource-constrained administrations to satisfy their community’s needs for safe roadways adequately, effectively relegating mitigation efforts for high-risk areas to post-incident responses. This paper demonstrates how geospatial technology can identify high-risk locations and evaluate the viability of specific intersection management techniques. GIS is used to simulate relevant real-world conditions- the presence of traffic controls, zoning records, locations of interest for human activity, design speed of roadways, topographic details and immovable structures. The proposed methodology provides a low-cost mechanism for empowering urban planners to reduce the risks of accidents using 2-dimensional data representing multi-modal street networks, parcels, crosswalks and demographic information alongside 3-dimensional models of buildings, elevation, slope and aspect surfaces to evaluate visibility and lighting conditions and estimate probabilities for jaywalking and risks posed by blind or uncontrolled intersections. The proposed tools were developed using sample areas of Southern California, but the model will scale to other cities which conform to similar transportation standards given the availability of relevant GIS data.

Keywords: crosswalks, cyclist safety, geotechnology, GIS, intersection safety, pedestrian safety, roadway safety, transportation planning, urban design

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Corinne Zurmuehle, Andreas Christoph Weber

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In 2019, the Swiss Federal Institute of Sport Magglingen (SFISM) conducted a mixed-methods study on the Swiss elite sports system, which yielded a large quantity of research data. In a quantitative online survey, 1151 elite sports athletes, 542 coaches, and 102 Performance Directors of national sports federations (NF) have submitted their perceptions of the national support measures of the Swiss elite sports system. These data provide an essential database for the further development of the Swiss elite sports system. The results were published in a report presenting the results divided into 40 Olympic summer and 14 winter sports (Olympic classification). The authors of this paper assume that, in practice, this division is too unspecific to assess where further measures would be needed. The aim of this paper is to find appropriate parameters for data visualization in order to identify disparities in sports promotion that allow an assessment of where further interventions by Swiss Olympic (NF umbrella organization) are required. Method: First, the variable 'salary earned from sport' was defined as a variable to measure the impact of elite sports promotion. This variable was chosen as a measure as it represents an important indicator for the professionalization of elite athletes and therefore reflects national level sports promotion measures applied by Swiss Olympic. Afterwards, the variable salary was tested with regard to the correlation between Olympic classification [a], calculating the Eta coefficient. To estimate the appropriate parameters for data visualization, the correlation between salary and four further parameters was analyzed by calculating the Eta coefficient: [a] sport; [b] prioritization (from 1 to 5) of the sports by Swiss Olympic; [c] gender; [d] employment level in sports. Results & Discussion: The analyses reveal a very small correlation between salary and Olympic classification (ɳ² = .011, p = .005). Gender demonstrates an even small correlation (ɳ² = .006, p = .014). The parameter prioritization was correlating with small effect (ɳ² = .017, p = .001) as did employment level (ɳ² = .028, p < .001). The highest correlation was identified by the parameter sport with a moderate effect (ɳ² = .075, p = .047). The analyses show that the disparities in sports promotion cannot be determined by a particular parameter but presumably explained by a combination of several parameters. We argue that the possibility of combining parameters for data visualization should be enabled when the analysis is provided to Swiss Olympic for further strategic decision-making. However, the inclusion of multiple parameters massively multiplies the number of graphs and is therefore not suitable for practical use. Therefore, we suggest to apply interactive dashboards for data visualization using Business Intelligence Software. Practical & Theoretical Contribution: This contribution provides the first attempt to use Business Intelligence Software for strategic decision-making in national level sports regarding the prioritization of national resources for sports and athletes. This allows to set specific parameters with a significant effect as filters. By using filters, parameters can be combined and compared against each other and set individually for each strategic decision.

Keywords: data visualization, business intelligence, Swiss elite sports system, strategic decision-making

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Authors: E. Akdur Öztürk, F. İrvasa Bilgiç, A. Ludovisi , O. Gülbahar, D. Dirim Erdoğan, M. Korkmaz, M. Á. Gómez Morales

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Anisakidosis is a zoonotic human fish-borne parasitic disease caused by accidental ingestion of anisakid third-stage larvae (L3) of members of the Anisakidae family present in infected marine fish or cephalopods. Infection with anisakid larvae can lead to gastric, intestinal, extra-gastrointestinal and gastroallergic forms of the disease. Anisakid parasites have been reported in almost all seas, particularly in the Mediterranean Sea. There is a remarkably high level of risk exposure to these zoonotic parasites as they are present in economically and ecologically important fish of Europe. Anisakid L3 larvae have been also detected in several fish species from the Aegean Sea. Turkey is a peninsular country surrounded by Black, Aegean and the Mediterranean Sea. In this country, fishing habit and fishery product consumption are highly common. In recent years, there was also an increase in the consumption of raw fish due to the increasing interest in the cuisine of the Far East countries. In different regions of Turkey, A. simplex (inMerluccius Merluccius Scomber japonicus, Trachurus mediterraneus, Sardina pilchardus, Engraulis encrasicolus, etc.), Anisakis spp., Contraceucum spp., Pseudoterronova spp. and, C. aduncum were identified as well. Although it is accepted both the presence of anisakid parasites in fish and fishery products in Turkey and the presence of Turkish people with allergic manifestations after fish consumption, there are no reports of human anisakiasis in this country. Given the high prevalence of anisakid parasites in the country, the absence of reports is likely not due to the absence of clinical cases rather to the unavailability of diagnostic tools and the low awareness of the presence of this infection. The aim of the study was to set up an IgE-Western Blot (WB) based test to detect the anisakidosis sensitization among Turkish people with a history of allergic manifestation related to fish consumption. To this end, crude worm antigens (CWA) and allergen enriched fraction (50-66% ) were prepared from L3 of A. simplex (s.l.) collected from Lepidopus caudatus fished in the Mediterranean Sea. These proteins were electrophoretically separated and transferred into the nitrocellulose membranes. By WB, specific proteins recognized by positive control serum samples from sensitized patients were visualized on nitrocellulose membranes by a colorimetric reaction. The CWA and 50–66% fraction showed specific bands, mainly due to Ani s 1 (20-22 kD) and Ani s 4 (9-10 kD). So far, a total of 7 serum samples from people with allergic manifestation and positive skin prick test (SPT) after fish consumption, have been tested and all of them resulted negative by WB, indicating the lack of sensitization to anisakids. This preliminary study allowed to set up a specific test and evidence the lack of correlation between both tests, SPT and WB. However, the sample size should be increased to estimate the anisakidosis burden in Turkish people.

Keywords: anisakidosis, fish parasite, serodiagnosis, Turkey

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Authors: Ryan B. Simpson, Margaret A. Waskow, Aishwarya Venkat, Elena N. Naumova

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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that 31 known foodborne pathogens cause 9.4 million cases of these illnesses annually in US. Over 90% of these illnesses are associated with exposure to Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, Cyclospora, Listeria, Salmonella, Shigella, Shiga-Toxin Producing E.Coli (STEC), Vibrio, and Yersinia. Contaminated products contain parasites typically causing an intestinal illness manifested by diarrhea, stomach cramping, nausea, weight loss, fatigue and may result in deaths in fragile populations. Since 1998, the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) has allowed for routine collection of suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases of food poisoning. While retrospective analyses have revealed common pathogen-specific seasonal patterns, little is known concerning the stability of those patterns over time and whether they can be used for preventative forecasting. The objective of this study is to construct a calendar of foodborne outbreaks of nine infections based on the peak timing of outbreak incidence in the US from 1996 to 2017. Reported cases were abstracted from FoodNet for Salmonella (135115), Campylobacter (121099), Shigella (48520), Cryptosporidium (21701), STEC (18022), Yersinia (3602), Vibrio (3000), Listeria (2543), and Cyclospora (758). Monthly counts were compiled for each agent, seasonal peak timing and peak intensity were estimated, and the stability of seasonal peaks and synchronization of infections was examined. Negative Binomial harmonic regression models with the delta-method were applied to derive confidence intervals for the peak timing for each year and overall study period estimates. Preliminary results indicate that five infections continue to lead as major causes of outbreaks, exhibiting steady upward trends with annual increases in cases ranging from 2.71% (95%CI: [2.38, 3.05]) in Campylobacter, 4.78% (95%CI: [4.14, 5.41]) in Salmonella, 7.09% (95%CI: [6.38, 7.82]) in E.Coli, 7.71% (95%CI: [6.94, 8.49]) in Cryptosporidium, and 8.67% (95%CI: [7.55, 9.80]) in Vibrio. Strong synchronization of summer outbreaks were observed, caused by Campylobacter, Vibrio, E.Coli and Salmonella, peaking at 7.57 ± 0.33, 7.84 ± 0.47, 7.85 ± 0.37, and 7.82 ± 0.14 calendar months, respectively, with the serial cross-correlation ranging 0.81-0.88 (p < 0.001). Over 21 years, Listeria and Cryptosporidium peaks (8.43 ± 0.77 and 8.52 ± 0.45 months, respectively) have a tendency to arrive 1-2 weeks earlier, while Vibrio peaks (7.8 ± 0.47) delay by 2-3 weeks. These findings will be incorporated in the forecast models to predict common paths of the spread, long-term trends, and the synchronization of outbreaks across etiological agents. The predictive modeling of foodborne outbreaks should consider long-term changes in seasonal timing, spatiotemporal trends, and sources of contamination.

Keywords: foodborne outbreak, national outbreak reporting system, predictive modeling, seasonality

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Authors: Vadim Allheily, Rudiger Schmitt, Lionel Merlat, Gildas L'Hostis

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Inflight devices are nowadays major actors in both military and civilian landscapes. Among others, missiles, mortars, rockets or even drones this last decade are increasingly sophisticated, and it is today of prior manner to develop always more efficient defensive systems from all these potential threats. In this frame, recent High Energy Laser weapon prototypes (HEL) have demonstrated some extremely good operational abilities to shot down within seconds flying targets several kilometers off. Whereas test outcomes are promising from both experimental and cost-related perspectives, the deterioration process still needs to be explored to be able to closely predict the effects of a high-energy laser irradiation on typical structures, heading finally to an effective design of laser sources and protective countermeasures. Laser matter interaction researches have a long history of more than 40 years at the French-German Research Institute (ISL). Those studies were tied with laser sources development in the mid-60s, mainly for specific metrology of fast phenomena. Nowadays, laser matter interaction can be viewed as the terminal ballistics of conventional weapons, with the unique capability of laser beams to carry energy at light velocity over large ranges. In the last years, a strong focus was made at ISL on the interaction process of laser radiation with metal targets such as artillery shells. Due to the absorbed laser radiation and the resulting heating process, an encased explosive charge can be initiated resulting in deflagration or even detonation of the projectile in flight. Drones and Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) are of outmost interests in modern warfare. Those aerial systems are usually made up of polymer-based composite materials, whose complexity involves new scientific challenges. Aside this main laser-matter interaction activity, a lot of experimental and numerical knowledge has been gathered at ISL within domains like spectrometry, thermodynamics or mechanics. Techniques and devices were developed to study separately each aspect concerned by this topic; optical characterization, thermal investigations, chemical reactions analysis or mechanical examinations are beyond carried out to neatly estimate essential key values. Results from these diverse tasks are then incorporated into analytic or FE numerical models that were elaborated, for example, to predict thermal repercussion on explosive charges or mechanical failures of structures. These simulations highlight the influence of each phenomenon during the laser irradiation and forecast experimental observations with good accuracy.

Keywords: composite materials, countermeasure, experimental work, high-energy laser, laser-matter interaction, modeling

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Authors: J. Martin Leal-Graciano, Juan J. Pérez-Gavilán, A. Reyes-Salazar, J. H. Castorena, J. L. Rivera-Salas

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The experimental results about the global behavior of twelve 1:2 scaled reinforced concrete frame subject to in-plane lateral load are presented. The main objective was to generate experimental evidence about the use of steel bars within mortar bed-joints as shear reinforcement in infill walls. Similar to the Canadian and New Zealand standards, the Mexican code includes specifications for this type of reinforcement. However, these specifications were obtained through experimental studies of load-bearing walls, mainly confined walls. Little information is found in the existing literature about the effects of joint reinforcement on the seismic behavior of infill masonry walls. Consequently, the Mexican code establishes the same equations to estimate the contribution of joint reinforcement for both confined walls and infill walls. A confined masonry construction and a reinforced concrete frame infilled with masonry walls have similar appearances. However, substantial differences exist between these two construction systems, which are mainly related to the sequence of construction and to how these structures support vertical and lateral loads. To achieve the objective established, ten reinforced concrete frames with masonry infill walls were built and tested in pairs, having both specimens in the pair identical characteristics except that one of them included joint reinforcement. The variables between pairs were the type of units, the size of the columns of the frame and the aspect ratio of the wall. All cases included tie-columns and tie-beams on the perimeter of the wall to anchor the joint reinforcement. Also, two bare frame with identical characteristic to the infilled frames were tested. The purpose was to investigate the effects of the infill wall on the behavior of the system to in-plane lateral load. In addition, the experimental results were compared with the prediction of the Mexican code. All the specimens were tested in cantilever under reversible cyclic lateral load. To simulate gravity load, constant vertical load was applied on the top of the columns. The results indicate that the contribution of the joint reinforcement to lateral strength depends on the size of the columns of the frame. Larger size columns produce a failure mode that is predominantly a sliding mode. Sliding inhibits the production of new inclined cracks, which are necessary to activate (deform) the joint reinforcement. Regarding the effects of joint reinforcement in the performance of confined masonry walls, many facts were confirmed for infill walls: this type of reinforcement increases the lateral strength of the wall, produces a more distributed cracking and reduces the width of the cracks. Moreover, it reduces the ductility demand of the system at maximum strength. The prediction of the lateral strength provided by the Mexican code is property in some cases; however, the effect of the size of the columns on the contribution of joint reinforcement needs to be better understood.

Keywords: experimental study, Infill wall, Infilled frame, masonry wall

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