Search results for: risk transfer
6742 New-Born Children and Marriage Stability: An Evaluation of Divorce Risk Based on 2010-2018 China Family Panel Studies Data
Authors: Yuchao Yao
Abstract:
As two of the main characteristics of Chinese demographic trends, increasing divorce rates and decreasing fertility rates both shaped the population structure in the recent decade. Figuring out to what extent can be having a child make a difference in the divorce rate of a couple will not only draw a picture of Chinese families but also bring about a new perspective to evaluate the Chinese child-breeding policies. Based on China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) Data 2010-2018, this paper provides a systematic evaluation of how children influence a couple’s marital stability through a series of empirical models. Using survival analysis and propensity score matching (PSM) model, this paper finds that the number and age of children that a couple has mattered in consolidating marital relationship, and these effects vary little over time; during the last decade, newly having children can in fact decrease the possibility of divorce for Chinese couples; the such decreasing effect is largely due to the birth of a second child. As this is an inclusive attempt to study and compare not only the effects but also the causality of children on divorce risk in the last decade, the results of this research will do a good summary of the status quo of divorce in China. Furthermore, this paper provides implications for further reforming the current marriage and child-breeding policies.Keywords: divorce risk, fertility, China, survival analysis, propensity score matching
Procedia PDF Downloads 736741 The Role of the Renal Specialist Podiatrist
Authors: Clara Luwe, Oliver Harness, Helena Meally, Kim Martin, Alexandra Harrington
Abstract:
Background: The role of ‘Renal Specialist Podiatrist’ originated in 2022 due to prevailing evidence of patients with diabetes and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) on haemodialysis (HD) and active ulcerations that were at higher risk of rapid deterioration, foot-related hospital admissions, and lower limb amputations. This role started in April 2022 with the aim of screening all patients on haemodialysis and instigating preventative measures to reduce serious foot related complications. Methods: A comprehensive neurovascular foot assessment was completed to establish baseline vascular status and identify those with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) for all patients on HD. Individual’s foot risk was stratified, advice and education tailored and issued. Identifying all diabetes patients on HD as high-risk for diabetic foot complications. Major Findings: All patients screened revealed over half of the caseload had diabetes, and more than half had a clinical presentation of PAD. All those presenting with ulcerations had a diagnosis of diabetes. Of the presenting ulcerations, the majority of these ulcers predated the renal specialist post and were classified as severe >3 SINBAD Score. Since April’22, complications have been identified quicker, reducing the severity (SINBAD<3 or below), and have improved healing times, in line with the national average. During the eight months of the role being in place, we have seen a reduction in minor amputations and no major amputations. Conclusion: By screening all patients on haemodialysis and focusing on education, early recognition of complications, appropriate treatment, and timely onward referral, we can reduce the risk of foot Diabetic foot ulcerations and lower limb amputations. Having regular podiatry input to stratify and facilitate high-risk, active wound patients across different services has helped to keep these patients stable, prevent amputations, and reduce foot-related hospital admissions and mortality from foot-related disease. By improving the accessibility to a specialist podiatrist, patients felt able to raise concerns sooner. This has helped to implement treatment at the earliest possible opportunity, enabling the identification and healing of ulcers at an earlier and less complex stage (SINBAD <3), thus, preventing potential limb-threatening complications.Keywords: renal, podiatry, haemodialysis, prevention, early detection
Procedia PDF Downloads 856740 Association between Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy and the Development of Offspring Mental and Behavioural Problems: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Authors: Berihun Dachew, Abdullah Mamun, Joemer Maravilla, Rosa Alati
Abstract:
Background: Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy are a major cause of maternal and childhood morbidity and mortality worldwide. However, its effect on offspring mental and behavioural disorders is unclear. Aims:The aim of this study was to provide the best scientific evidence regarding the association between hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and offspring mental and behavioural problems. Methods: We systematically searched Scopus, PubMed, Cochrane, EMBASE, CINAH and PsycINFO databases. A total of 23 studies (11 included in meta-analysis) were identified. A qualitative analysis was conducted by summarizing, comparing, and contrasting the abstracted data for all included studies. For quantitative analysis, relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was used as pooled effect size. Heterogeneity was assessed by measuring Cochran’s Q and I2 test statistics. Results: Of the 23 studies included in this review, 15 studies found that hypertensive disorders of pregnancy had a negative impact for at least one mental or behavioural problem. The pooled effect of 11 studies included in the meta-analysis showed that preeclampsia was associated with increased risk of offspring schizophrenia (RR=1.37; 95% CI, 1.08-1.72). Conclusions: Intrauterine exposure to pre-eclampsia increased the risk of schizophrenia among offspring. However, we found inconclusive finding on the effect of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and other mental and behavioural problems. Further high quality, large sample, mother child cohort studies are needed to further progress this area of research.Keywords: behavioural disorders, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, mental disorders, offspring
Procedia PDF Downloads 2386739 Characterization and Modelling of Aerosol Droplet in Absorption Columns
Authors: Hammad Majeed, Hanna Knuutila, Magne Hillestad, Hallvard F. Svendsen
Abstract:
Formation of aerosols can cause serious complications in industrial exhaust gas CO2 capture processes. SO3 present in the flue gas can cause aerosol formation in an absorption based capture process. Small mist droplets and fog formed can normally not be removed in conventional demisting equipment because their submicron size allows the particles or droplets to follow the gas flow. As a consequence of this aerosol based emissions in the order of grams per Nm3 have been identified from PCCC plants. In absorption processes aerosols are generated by spontaneous condensation or desublimation processes in supersaturated gas phases. Undesired aerosol development may lead to amine emissions many times larger than what would be encountered in a mist free gas phase in PCCC development. It is thus of crucial importance to understand the formation and build-up of these aerosols in order to mitigate the problem. Rigorous modelling of aerosol dynamics leads to a system of partial differential equations. In order to understand mechanics of a particle entering an absorber an implementation of the model is created in Matlab. The model predicts the droplet size, the droplet internal variable profiles and the mass transfer fluxes as function of position in the absorber. The Matlab model is based on a subclass method of weighted residuals for boundary value problems named, orthogonal collocation method. The model comprises a set of mass transfer equations for transferring components and the essential diffusion reaction equations to describe the droplet internal profiles for all relevant constituents. Also included is heat transfer across the interface and inside the droplet. This paper presents results describing the basic simulation tool for the characterization of aerosols formed in CO2 absorption columns and gives examples as to how various entering droplets grow or shrink through an absorber and how their composition changes with respect to time. Below are given some preliminary simulation results for an aerosol droplet composition and temperature profiles.Keywords: absorption columns, aerosol formation, amine emissions, internal droplet profiles, monoethanolamine (MEA), post combustion CO2 capture, simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 2466738 The Development of the Psychosomatic Nursing Model from an Evidence-Based Action Research on Proactive Mental Health Care for Medical Inpatients
Authors: Chia-Yi Wu, Jung-Chen Chang, Wen-Yu Hu, Ming-Been Lee
Abstract:
In nearly all physical health conditions, suicide risk is increased compared to healthy people even after adjustment for age, gender, mental health, and substance use diagnoses. In order to highlight the importance of suicide risk assessment for the inpatients and early identification and engagement for inpatients’ mental health problems, a study was designed aiming at developing a comprehensive psychosomatic nursing engagement (PSNE) model with standardized operation procedures informing how nurses communicate, assess, and engage with the inpatients with emotional distress. The purpose of the study was to promote the gatekeeping role of clinical nurses in performing brief assessment and interventions to detect depression and anxiety symptoms among the inpatients, particularly in non-psychiatric wards. The study will be carried out in a 2000-bed university hospital in Northern Taiwan in 2019. We will select a ward for trial and develop feasible procedures and in-job training course for the nurses to offer mental health care, which will also be validated through professional consensus meeting. The significance of the study includes the following three points: (1) The study targets at an important but less-researched area of PSNE model in the cultural background of Taiwan, where hospital service is highly accessible, but mental health and suicide risk assessment are hardly provided by non-psychiatric healthcare personnel. (2) The issue of PSNE could be efficient and cost-effective in the identification of suicide risks at an early stage to prevent inpatient suicide or to reduce future suicide risk by early treatment of mental illnesses among the high-risk group of hospitalized patients who are more than three-times lethal to suicide. (3) Utilizing a brief tool with its established APP ('The Five-item Brief Symptom Rating Scale, BSRS-5'), we will invent the standardized procedure of PSNE and referral steps in collaboration with the medical teams across the study hospital. New technological tools nested within nursing assessment/intervention will concurrently be invented to facilitate better care quality. The major outcome measurements will include tools for early identification of common mental distress and suicide risks, i.e., the BSRS-5, revised BSRS-5, and the 9-item Concise Mental Health Checklist (CMHC-9). The main purpose of using the CMHC-9 in clinical suicide risk assessment is mainly to provide care and build-up therapeutic relationship with the client, so it will also be used to nursing training highlighting the skills of supportive care. Through early identification of the inpatients’ depressive symptoms or other mental health care needs such as insomnia, anxiety, or suicide risk, the majority of the nursing clinicians would be able to engage in critical interventions that alleviate the inpatients’ suffering from mental health problems, given a feasible nursing input.Keywords: mental health care, clinical outcome improvement, clinical nurses, suicide prevention, psychosomatic nursing
Procedia PDF Downloads 1086737 Electrodynamic Principles for Generation and Wireless Transfer of Energy
Authors: Steven D. P. Moore
Abstract:
An electrical discharge in the air induces an electromagnetic (EM) wave capable of wireless transfer, reception, and conversion back into electrical discharge at a distant location. Following Norton’s ground wave principles, EM wave radiation (EMR) runs parallel to the Earth’s surface. Energy in an EMR wave can move through the air and be focused to create a spark at a distant location, focused by a receiver to generate a local electrical discharge. This local discharge can be amplified and stored but also has the propensity to initiate another EMR wave. In addition to typical EM waves, lightning is also associated with atmospheric events, trans-ionospheric pulse pairs, the most powerful natural EMR signal on the planet. With each lightning strike, regardless of global position, it generates naturally occurring pulse-pairs that are emitted towards space within a narrow cone. An EMR wave can self-propagate, travel at the speed of light, and, if polarized, contain vector properties. If this reflective pulse could be directed by design through structures that have increased probabilities for lighting strikes, it could theoretically travel near the surface of the Earth at light speed towards a selected receiver for local transformation into electrical energy. Through research, there are several influencing parameters that could be modified to model, test, and increase the potential for adopting this technology towards the goal of developing a global grid that utilizes natural sources of energy.Keywords: electricity, sparkgap, wireless, electromagnetic
Procedia PDF Downloads 1906736 Forecast Dispersion, Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns
Authors: Guoyu Lin
Abstract:
This paper explores the role investor sentiment plays in the relationship between analyst forecast dispersion and stock returns. With short sale constraints, stock prices are determined by the optimistic investors. During the high sentiment periods when investors suffer more from psychological bias, there are more optimistic investors. This is the first paper to document that following the high sentiment periods, stocks with the most analyst forecast dispersion are overpriced, earning significantly negative returns, while those with the least analyst forecast dispersion are not overpriced as the degree of belief dispersion is low. However, following the low sentiment periods, both are not overpriced. A portfolio which longs the least dispersed stocks and shorts the most dispersed stocks yields significantly positive returns only following the high sentiment periods. My findings can potentially reconcile the puzzling risk effect and mispricing effect in the literature. The risk (mispricing) effect suggests a positive (negative) relation between analyst forecast dispersion and future stock returns. Presumably, the magnitude of the mispricing effect depends on the proportion of irrational investors and their bias, which is positively related to investor sentiment. During the high sentiment period, the mispricing effect takes over and the overall effect is negative. During the low sentiment period, the percentage of irrational investors is mediate, and the mispricing effect and the risk effect counter each other, leading to insignificant relation.Keywords: analyst forecast dispersion, short-sale constraints, investor sentiment, stock returns
Procedia PDF Downloads 1436735 Foodborne Pathogens in Different Types of Milk: From the Microbiome to Risk Assessment
Authors: Pasquali Frederique, Manfreda Chiara, Crippa Cecilia, Indio Valentina, Ianieri Adriana, De Cesare Alessandra
Abstract:
Microbiological hazards can be transmitted to humans through milk. In this study, we compared the microbiome composition and presence of foodborne pathogens in organic milk (n=6), organic hay milk (n=6), standard milk (n=6) and high-quality milk (n=6). The milk samples were collected during six samplings between December 2022 to January 2023 and between April and May 2024 to take into account seasonal variations. The 24 milk samples were submitted to DNA extraction and library preparation before shotgun sequencing on the Illumina HiScan™ SQ System platform. The total sequencing output was 600 GB. In all the milk samples, the phyla with the highest relative abundances were Pseudomonadota, Bacillota, Ascomycota, Actinomycetota and Apicomplexa, while the most represented genera were Pseudomonas, Streptococcus, Geotrichum, Acinetobacter and Babesia. The alpha and beta diversity indexes showed a clear separation between the microbiome of high-quality milk and those of the other milk types. Moreover, in the high-quality milk, the relative abundance of Staphylococcus (4.4%), Campylobacter (4.5%), Bacillus (2.5%), Enterococcus (2.4%), Klebsiella (1.3%) and Escherichia (0 .7%) was significantly higher in comparison to other types of milk. On the contrary, the relative abundance of Geotrichum (0.5%) was significantly lower. The microbiome results collected in this study showed significant differences in terms of the relative abundance of bacteria genera, including foodborne pathogen species. These results should be incorporated into risk assessment models tailored to different types of milk.Keywords: raw milk, foodborne pathogens, microbiome, risk assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 256734 Risk of Heatstroke Occurring in Indoor Built Environment Determined with Nationwide Sports and Health Database and Meteorological Outdoor Data
Authors: Go Iwashita
Abstract:
The paper describes how the frequencies of heatstroke occurring in indoor built environment are related to the outdoor thermal environment with big statistical data. As the statistical accident data of heatstroke, the nationwide accident data were obtained from the National Agency for the Advancement of Sports and Health (NAASH) . The meteorological database of the Japanese Meteorological Agency supplied data about 1-hour average temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and so forth. Each heatstroke data point from the NAASH database was linked to the meteorological data point acquired from the nearest meteorological station where the accident of heatstroke occurred. This analysis was performed for a 10-year period (2005–2014). During the 10-year period, 3,819 cases of heatstroke were reported in the NAASH database for the investigated secondary/high schools of the nine Japanese representative cities. Heatstroke most commonly occurred in the outdoor schoolyard at a wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) of 31°C and in the indoor gymnasium during athletic club activities at a WBGT > 31°C. The determined accident ratio (number of accidents during each club activity divided by the club’s population) in the gymnasium during the female badminton club activities was the highest. Although badminton is played in a gymnasium, these WBGT results show that the risk level during badminton under hot and humid conditions is equal to that of baseball or rugby played in the schoolyard. Except sports, the high risk of heatstroke was observed in schools houses during cultural activities. The risk level for indoor environment under hot and humid condition would be equal to that for outdoor environment based on the above results of WBGT. Therefore control measures against hot and humid indoor condition were needed as installing air conditions not only schools but also residences.Keywords: accidents in schools, club activity, gymnasium, heatstroke
Procedia PDF Downloads 2176733 Perception of Nurses and Caregivers on Fall Preventive Management for Hospitalized Children Based on Ecological Model
Authors: Mirim Kim, Won-Oak Oh
Abstract:
Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify hospitalized children's fall risk factors, fall prevention status and fall prevention strategies recognized by nurses and caregivers of hospitalized children and present an ecological model for fall preventive management in hospitalized children. Method: The participants of this study were 14 nurses working in medical institutions and having more than one year of child care experience and 14 adult caregivers of children under 6 years of age receiving inpatient treatment at a medical institution. One to one interview was attempted to identify their perception of fall preventive management. Transcribed data were analyzed through latent content analysis method. Results: Fall risk factors in hospitalized children were 'unpredictable behavior', 'instability', 'lack of awareness about danger', 'lack of awareness about falls', 'lack of child control ability', 'lack of awareness about the importance of fall prevention', 'lack of sensitivity to children', 'untidy environment around children', 'lack of personalized facilities for children', 'unsafe facility', 'lack of partnership between healthcare provider and caregiver', 'lack of human resources', 'inadequate fall prevention policy', 'lack of promotion about fall prevention', 'a performanceism oriented culture'. Fall preventive management status of hospitalized children were 'absence of fall prevention capability', 'efforts not to fall', 'blocking fall risk situation', 'limit the scope of children's activity when there is no caregiver', 'encourage caregivers' fall prevention activities', 'creating a safe environment surrounding hospitalized children', 'special management for fall high risk children', 'mutual cooperation between healthcare providers and caregivers', 'implementation of fall prevention policy', 'providing guide signs about fall risk'. Fall preventive management strategies of hospitalized children were 'restrain dangerous behavior', 'inspiring awareness about fall', 'providing fall preventive education considering the child's eye level', 'efforts to become an active subject of fall prevention activities', 'providing customed fall prevention education', 'open communication between healthcare providers and caregivers', 'infrastructure and personnel management to create safe hospital environment', 'expansion fall prevention campaign', 'development and application of a valid fall assessment instrument', 'conversion of awareness about safety'. Conclusion: In this study, the ecological model of fall preventive management for hospitalized children reflects various factors that directly or indirectly affect the fall prevention of hospitalized children. Therefore, these results can be considered as useful baseline data for developing systematic fall prevention programs and hospital policies to prevent fall accident in hospitalized children. Funding: This study was funded by the National Research Foundation of South Korea (grant number NRF-2016R1A2B1015455).Keywords: fall down, safety culture, hospitalized children, risk factors
Procedia PDF Downloads 1646732 Study on Impact of Road Loads on Full Vehicle Squeak and Rattle Performance
Authors: R. Praveen, B. R. Chandan Ravi, M. Harikrishna
Abstract:
Squeak and rattle noises are the most annoying transient vehicle noises produced due to different terrain conditions. Interpretation and prohibition of squeak and rattle noises are the dominant aspects of a vehicle refinement. This paper describes the computer-aided engineering (CAE) approach to evaluating the full vehicle squeak and rattle performance with the measured road surface profile as enforced excitation at the tire patch points. The E-Line methodology has been used to predict the relative displacement at the interface points and the risk areas were identified. Squeak and rattle performance has been evaluated at different speeds and at different road conditions to understand the vehicle characteristics. The competence of the process in predicting the risk and root cause of the problems showcased us a pleasing conformity between the physical testing and CAE simulation results.Keywords: e-line, enforced excitation, full vehicle, squeak and rattle, road excitation
Procedia PDF Downloads 1426731 Prevalence of Complement Factor H (Y402H) Gene Polymorphism and Its Impact on the Predisposition of Syrians to Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD) and Response to Bevacizumab Intravitreal Injection
Authors: Loubna Safar, Lama Youssef, Majd Aljamali
Abstract:
Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is one of the leading causes of blindness worldwide. Complement factor H polymorphism (Y402H) is thought to play a potential role in the predisposition to AMD and response of patients with exudative AMD to treatment with anti-Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (anti-VEGF). This study aimed to investigate the frequency of Y402H among Syrians, its impact on their susceptibility to AMD, and the hypothesized role of Y402H in patients' response to intravitreal anti-VEGF (i.e.,, bevacizumab). Our case-control study encompassed unrelated 54 AMD cases and 44 controls. Genotyping was determined by standard sequencing of PCR products. Frequency was compared between patients and controls, and correlation between genotype and response to treatment was assessed in 20 patients with wet AMD who received a therapeutic course of three intravitreal bevacizumab injections (once monthly). Our results revealed a significantly higher prevalence of the risk allele C among AMD cases (51.9%) in comparison with controls (37.5%) (P= 0.04, OR= 1.386, CI= 0.999- 1.923). Patients with the TT genotype (no risk allele) exhibited a significantly better primary response rate, reached 87.5% compared to only 41.7% in patients carrying the risk allele C (TC + CC), (P= 0.04, OR= 9.8, CI=0.899- 106.84). The findings of this study prove the importance of investigating Y402H polymorphism as a prognostic marker for predicting response to bevacizumab in AMD patients.Keywords: age-related macular degeneration, bevacizumab, complement factor H gene, polymorphism, Y402H
Procedia PDF Downloads 1566730 Safety Management on Construction Sites
Authors: Jonathan Doku
Abstract:
The study's goal was to evaluate construction site safety management in Ghana. The construction sector has long been seen as a high-risk business. It entails a variety of hazardous and challenging labor duties, such as lifting and working at a height, among others. The accident rate is a standard indicator for comparing the safety performance of construction projects. Because of its high-risk and fast-changing work environment, the construction business is regarded as one of the industries with the highest accident rates in the world. Many mishaps and work-related diseases have occurred there, and construction workers are particularly vulnerable to catastrophic calamities such as falls, collapses, and burial. The study's main goals were to discover characteristics that have a substantial impact on construction site safety, to evaluate the safety management methods utilized on construction sites, and to assess the obstacles associated with construction site safety management. The study was conducted using a quantitative research method and a purposive sampling strategy. Google forms were used to distribute self-administered surveys to 85 responders. 72 of the 85 questionnaires were completed and submitted for analysis, accounting for 84.7 percent of the total. The variables were analyzed using descriptive statistics, mean score ranking, and Cronbach's Alpha Coefficient to ensure the scale's reliability. The formal safety organization structure and the Safety checklist were identified as the key practices of safety management on site as part of the study goals. In addition, it was discovered that the most serious problem with safety management is ineffective supervision. To guarantee efficient monitoring and proper implementation of health and safety rules on building sites, management must be on the ball.Keywords: construction, safety, risk, management
Procedia PDF Downloads 826729 Thermal Performance of Plate-Fin Heat Sink with Lateral Perforation
Authors: Sakkarin Chingulpitak, Somchai Wongwises
Abstract:
Over the past several decades, the development of electronic devices has led to higher performance. Therefore, an electronic cooling system is important for the electronic device. A heat sink which is a part of the electronic cooling system is continuously studied in the research field to enhance the heat transfer. To author’s best knowledge, there have been only a few articles which reported the thermal performance of plate-fin heat sink with perforation. This research aims to study on the flow and heat transfer characteristics of the solid-fin heat sink (SFHS) and laterally perforated plate-fin heat sink (LAP-PFHS). The SFHS and LAP-PFHSs are investigated on the same fin dimensions. The LAP-PFHSs are performed with a 27 perforation number and two different diameters of circular perforation (3 mm and 5 mm). The experimental study is conducted under various Reynolds numbers from 900 to 2,000 and the heat input of 50W. The experimental results show that the LAP-PFHS with perforation diameter of 5 mm gives the minimum thermal resistance about 25% lower than SFHS. The thermal performance factor which takes into account the ratio of the Nusselt number and ratio of friction factor is used to find the suitable design parameters. The experimental results show that the LAP-PFHS with the perforation diameter of 3 mm provides the thermal performance of 15% greater than SFHS. In addition, the simulation study is presented to investigate the effect of the air flow behavior inside the perforation on the thermal performance of LAP-PFHS.Keywords: heat sink, parallel flow, circular perforation, non-bypass flow
Procedia PDF Downloads 1486728 Hypertension and Obesity: A Cross-National Comparison of BMI and Waist-Height Ratio
Authors: Adam M. Yates, Julie E. Byles
Abstract:
Hypertension has been identified as a prominent co-morbidity of obesity. To improve clinical intervention of hypertension, it is critical to identify metrics that most accurately reflect risk for increased morbidity. Two of the most relevant and accurate measures for increased risk of hypertension due to excess adipose tissue are Body Mass Index (BMI) and Waist-Height Ratio (WHtR). Previous research has examined these measures in cross-national and cross-ethnic studies, but has most often relied on secondary means such as meta-analysis to identify and evaluate the efficacy of individual body mass measures. In this study, we instead use cross-sectional analysis to assess the cross-ethnic discriminative power of BMI and WHtR to predict risk of hypertension. Using the WHO SAGE survey, which collected anthropometric and biometric data from respondents in six middle-income countries (China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, South Africa), we implement logistic regression to examine the discriminative power of measured BMI and WHtR with a known population of hypertensive and non-hypertensive respondents. We control for gender and age to identify whether optimum cut-off points that are adequately sensitive as tests for risk of hypertension may be different between groups. We report results for OR, RR, and ROC curves for each of the six SAGE countries. As seen in existing literature, results demonstrate that both WHtR and BMI are significant predictors of hypertension (p < .01). For these six countries, we find that cut-off points for WHtR may be dependent upon gender, age and ethnicity. While an optimum omnibus cut-point for WHtR may be 0.55, results also suggest that the gender and age relationship with WHtR may warrant the development of individual cut-offs to optimize health outcomes. Trends through multiple countries show that the optimum cut-point for WHtR increases with age while the area under the curve (AUROC) decreases for both men and women. Comparison between BMI and WHtR indicate that BMI may remain more robust than WHtR. Implications for public health policy are discussed.Keywords: hypertension, obesity, Waist-Height ratio, SAGE
Procedia PDF Downloads 4796727 Measurements for Risk Analysis and Detecting Hazards by Active Wearables
Authors: Werner Grommes
Abstract:
Intelligent wearables (illuminated vests or hand and foot-bands, smart watches with a laser diode, Bluetooth smart glasses) overflow the market today. They are integrated with complex electronics and are worn very close to the body. Optical measurements and limitation of the maximum light density are needed. Smart watches are equipped with a laser diode or control different body currents. Special glasses generate readable text information that is received via radio transmission. Small high-performance batteries (lithium-ion/polymer) supply the electronics. All these products have been tested and evaluated for risk. These products must, for example, meet the requirements for electromagnetic compatibility as well as the requirements for electromagnetic fields affecting humans or implant wearers. Extensive analyses and measurements were carried out for this purpose. Many users are not aware of these risks. The result of this study should serve as a suggestion to do it better in the future or simply to point out these risks. Commercial LED warning vests, LED hand and foot-bands, illuminated surfaces with inverter (high voltage), flashlights, smart watches, and Bluetooth smart glasses were checked for risks. The luminance, the electromagnetic emissions in the low-frequency as well as in the high-frequency range, audible noises, and nervous flashing frequencies were checked by measurements and analyzed. Rechargeable lithium-ion or lithium-polymer batteries can burn or explode under special conditions like overheating, overcharging, deep discharge or using out of the temperature specification. Some risk analysis becomes necessary. The result of this study is that many smart wearables are worn very close to the body, and an extensive risk analysis becomes necessary. Wearers of active implants like a pacemaker or implantable cardiac defibrillator must be considered. If the wearable electronics include switching regulators or inverter circuits, active medical implants in the near field can be disturbed. A risk analysis is necessary.Keywords: safety and hazards, electrical safety, EMC, EMF, active medical implants, optical radiation, illuminated warning vest, electric luminescent, hand and head lamps, LED, e-light, safety batteries, light density, optical glare effects
Procedia PDF Downloads 1106726 Managing Uncertainty in Unmanned Aircraft System Safety Performance Requirements Compliance Process
Authors: Achim Washington, Reece Clothier, Jose Silva
Abstract:
System Safety Regulations (SSR) are a central component to the airworthiness certification of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). There is significant debate on the setting of appropriate SSR for UAS. Putting this debate aside, the challenge lies in how to apply the system safety process to UAS, which lacks the data and operational heritage of conventionally piloted aircraft. The limited knowledge and lack of operational data result in uncertainty in the system safety assessment of UAS. This uncertainty can lead to incorrect compliance findings and the potential certification and operation of UAS that do not meet minimum safety performance requirements. The existing system safety assessment and compliance processes, as used for conventional piloted aviation, do not adequately account for the uncertainty, limiting the suitability of its application to UAS. This paper discusses the challenges of undertaking system safety assessments for UAS and presents current and envisaged research towards addressing these challenges. It aims to highlight the main advantages associated with adopting a risk based framework to the System Safety Performance Requirement (SSPR) compliance process that is capable of taking the uncertainty associated with each of the outputs of the system safety assessment process into consideration. Based on this study, it is made clear that developing a framework tailored to UAS, would allow for a more rational, transparent and systematic approach to decision making. This would reduce the need for conservative assumptions and take the risk posed by each UAS into consideration while determining its state of compliance to the SSR.Keywords: Part 1309 regulations, risk models, uncertainty, unmanned aircraft systems
Procedia PDF Downloads 1876725 Refusal Speech Acts in French Learners of Mandarin Chinese
Authors: Jui-Hsueh Hu
Abstract:
This study investigated various models of refusal speech acts among three target groups: French learners of Mandarin Chinese (FM), Taiwanese native Mandarin speakers (TM), and native French speakers (NF). The refusal responses were analyzed in terms of their options, frequencies, and sequences and the contents of their semantic formulas. This study also examined differences in refusal strategies, as determined by social status and social distance, among the three groups. The difficulties of refusal speech acts encountered by FM were then generalized. The results indicated that Mandarin instructors of NF should focus on the different reasons for the pragmatic failure of French learners and should assist these learners in mastering refusal speech acts that rely on abundant cultural information. In this study, refusal policies were mainly classified according to the research of Beebe et al. (1990). Discourse completion questionnaires were collected from TM, FM, and NF, and their responses were compared to determine how refusal policies differed among the groups. This study not only emphasized the dissimilarities of refusal strategies between native Mandarin speakers and second-language Mandarin learners but also used NF as a control group. The results of this study demonstrated that regarding overall strategies, FM were biased toward NF in terms of strategy choice, order, and content, resulting in pragmatic transfer under the influence of social factors such as 'social status' and 'social distance,' strategy choices of FM were still closer to those of NF, and the phenomenon of pragmatic transfer of FM was revealed. Regarding the refusal difficulties among the three groups, the F-test in the analysis of variance revealed statistical significance was achieved for Role Playing Items 13 and 14 (P < 0.05). A difference was observed in the average number of refusal difficulties between the participants. However, after multiple comparisons, it was found that item 13 (unrecognized heterosexual junior colleague requesting contacts) was significantly more difficult for NF than for TM and FM; item 14 (contacts requested by an unrecognized classmate of the opposite sex) was significantly more difficult to refuse for NF than for TM. This study summarized the pragmatic language errors that most FM often perform, including the misuse or absence of modal words, hedging expressions, and empty words at the end of sentences, as the reasons for pragmatic failures. The common social pragmatic failures of FM include inaccurately applying the level of directness and formality.Keywords: French Mandarin, interlanguage refusal, pragmatic transfer, speech acts
Procedia PDF Downloads 2546724 Market Solvency Capital Requirement Minimization: How Non-linear Solvers Provide Portfolios Complying with Solvency II Regulation
Authors: Abraham Castellanos, Christophe Durville, Sophie Echenim
Abstract:
In this article, a portfolio optimization problem is performed in a Solvency II context: it illustrates how advanced optimization techniques can help to tackle complex operational pain points around the monitoring, control, and stability of Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). The market SCR of a portfolio is calculated as a combination of SCR sub-modules. These sub-modules are the results of stress-tests on interest rate, equity, property, credit and FX factors, as well as concentration on counter-parties. The market SCR is non convex and non differentiable, which does not make it a natural optimization criteria candidate. In the SCR formulation, correlations between sub-modules are fixed, whereas risk-driven portfolio allocation is usually driven by the dynamics of the actual correlations. Implementing a portfolio construction approach that is efficient on both a regulatory and economic standpoint is not straightforward. Moreover, the challenge for insurance portfolio managers is not only to achieve a minimal SCR to reduce non-invested capital but also to ensure stability of the SCR. Some optimizations have already been performed in the literature, simplifying the standard formula into a quadratic function. But to our knowledge, it is the first time that the standard formula of the market SCR is used in an optimization problem. Two solvers are combined: a bundle algorithm for convex non- differentiable problems, and a BFGS (Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb- Shanno)-SQP (Sequential Quadratic Programming) algorithm, to cope with non-convex cases. A market SCR minimization is then performed with historical data. This approach results in significant reduction of the capital requirement, compared to a classical Markowitz approach based on the historical volatility. A comparative analysis of different optimization models (equi-risk-contribution portfolio, minimizing volatility portfolio and minimizing value-at-risk portfolio) is performed and the impact of these strategies on risk measures including market SCR and its sub-modules is evaluated. A lack of diversification of market SCR is observed, specially for equities. This was expected since the market SCR strongly penalizes this type of financial instrument. It was shown that this direct effect of the regulation can be attenuated by implementing constraints in the optimization process or minimizing the market SCR together with the historical volatility, proving the interest of having a portfolio construction approach that can incorporate such features. The present results are further explained by the Market SCR modelling.Keywords: financial risk, numerical optimization, portfolio management, solvency capital requirement
Procedia PDF Downloads 1176723 Total Plaque Area in Chronic Renal Failure
Authors: Hernán A. Perez, Luis J. Armando, Néstor H. García
Abstract:
Background and aims Cardiovascular disease rates are very high in patients with renal failure (CRF), but the underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors do not explain the increased risk, and observational studies have observed paradoxical or absent associations between classical risk factors and mortality in dialysis patients. A large randomized controlled trial, the 4D Study, the AURORA and the ALERT study found that statin therapy in CRF do not reduce cardiovascular events. These results may be the results of ‘accelerated atherosclerosis’ observed on these patients. The objective of this study was to investigate if carotid total plaque area (TPA), a measure of carotid plaque burden growth is increased at progressively lower creatinine clearance in patients with CRF. We studied a cohort of patients with CRF not on dialysis, reasoning that risk factor associations might be more easily discerned before end stage renal disease. Methods: The Blossom DMO Argentina ethics committee approved the study and informed consent from each participant was obtained. We performed a cohort study in 412 patients with Stage 1, 2 and 3 CRF. Clinical and laboratory data were obtained. TPA was determined using bilateral carotid ultrasonography. Modification of Diet in Renal Disease estimation formula was used to determine renal function. ANOVA was used when appropriate. Results: Stage 1 CRF group (n= 16, 43±2yo) had a blood pressure of 123±2/78±2 mmHg, BMI 30±1, LDL col 145±10 mg/dl, HbA1c 5.8±0.4% and had the lowest TPA 25.8±6.9 mm2. Stage 2 CRF (n=231, 50±1 yo) had a blood pressure of 132±1/81±1 mmHg, LDL col 125±2 mg/dl, HbA1c 6±0.1% and TPA 48±10mm2 ( p< 0.05 vs CRF stage 1) while Stage 3 CRF (n=165, 59±1 yo) had a blood pressure of 134±1/81±1, LDL col 125±3 mg/dl, HbA1c 6±0.1% and TPA 71±6mm2 (p < 0.05 vs CRF stage 1 and 2). Conclusion: Our data indicate that TPA increases along the renal function deterioration, and it is not related with the LDL cholesterol and triglycerides levels. We suggest that mechanisms other than the classics are responsible for the observed excess of cardiovascular disease in CKD patients and finally, determination of total plaque area should be used to measure effects of antiatherosclerotic therapy.Keywords: hypertension, chronic renal failure, atherosclerosis, cholesterol
Procedia PDF Downloads 2726722 Epidemiological, Clinical, Diagnostic Indicators and Treatment Efficiency of Patients with Immune Thrombocytopenic Purpura Diagnosed in Albania
Authors: Sara Grazhdani, Alma Cili, Arben Ivanaj
Abstract:
Immune Thrombocytopenic Purpura is an autoimmune disease characterized by the destruction of platelets by immune mediators, their deficient production in the red bone marrow and increased splenic sequestration, leading to the appearance of thrombocytopenia and increased risk of hemorrhage. Treatment is indicated in patients with low platelet counts (<30 x 10 9 /L) who present clinically with hemorrhagic events or are at increased risk for hemorrhage. The goal of the treatment remains (I) prevention of hemorrhagic events and deaths resulting from them, (II) reaching an adequate level of the number of platelets, (III) treatment of patients with as few toxic effects as possible. Corticosteroid therapy remains the first choice in the treatment of patients with Primary Immune Thrombocytopenic Purpura. Rituximab (Mabthera) remains the first choice in the second line in the treatment of patients with Immune Thrombocytopenic Purpura, refractory to the use of cortisones.Keywords: ITP, rituximab, prednisolone, relapse
Procedia PDF Downloads 1116721 The Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio after Surgery for Hip Fracture in a New, Simple, and Objective Score to Predict Postoperative Mortality
Authors: Philippe Dillien, Patrice Forget, Harald Engel, Olivier Cornu, Marc De Kock, Jean Cyr Yombi
Abstract:
Introduction: Hip fracture precedes commonly death in elderly people. Identification of high-risk patients may contribute to target patients in whom optimal management, resource allocation and trials efficiency is needed. The aim of this study is to construct a predictive score of mortality after hip fracture on the basis of the objective prognostic factors available: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), age, and sex. C-Reactive Protein (CRP), is also considered as an alternative to the NLR. Patients and methods: After the IRB approval, we analyzed our prospective database including 286 consecutive patients with hip fracture. A score was constructed combining age (1 point per decade above 74 years), sex (1 point for males), and NLR at postoperative day+5 (1 point if >5). A receiver-operating curve (ROC) curve analysis was performed. Results: From the 286 patients included, 235 were analyzed (72 males and 163 females, 30.6%/69.4%), with a median age of 84 (range: 65 to 102) years, mean NLR values of 6.47+/-6.07. At one year, 82/280 patients died (29.3%). Graphical analysis and log-rank test confirm a highly statistically significant difference (P<0.001). Performance analysis shows an AUC of 0.72 [95%CI 0.65-0.79]. CRP shows no advantage on NLR. Conclusion: We have developed a score based on age, sex and the NLR to predict the risk of mortality at one year in elderly patients after surgery for a hip fracture. After external validation, it may be included in clinical practice as in clinical research to stratify the risk of postoperative mortality.Keywords: neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, hip fracture, postoperative mortality, medical and health sciences
Procedia PDF Downloads 4136720 Application of Watershed Modeling System for Urbanization Management in Tabuk Area, Saudi Arabia
Authors: Abd-Alrahman Embaby, Ayman Abu Halawa, Medhat Ramadan
Abstract:
The infiltrated water into the subsurface activates expansive soil in localized manner, leading to the differential heaving and destructive of the construction. The Watershed Modeling System (WMS) and Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-1) are used to delineate and identify the drainage system and basin morphometry in Tabuk area, where flash floods and accumulation of water may take place. Eight drainage basins effect on Tabuk city. Three of them are expected to be high. The flash floods and surface runoff behavior in these basins are important for any protection projects. It was found that the risky areas that contain Tabuk shale could be expanded when exposed to flash floods and/or surface runoff. The resident neighborhoods in the middle of Tabuk city and affected by surface runoff of the tributaries of the basin of Wadi Abu Nishayfah, Na'am and Atanah outlet, represent high-risk zones. These high-risk neighborhoods are Al Qadsiyah, Al Maseif, Arrwdah, Al Nakhil and Al Rajhi. It can be avoided new constructions on these districts. The low or very low-risk zones include the western and the eastern districts. The western side of the city is lying in the upstream of the small basin. It is suitable for a future urban extension. The direction of surface runoff flow or storm water drain discharge should be away from Tabuk city. The quicker the water can flow out, the better it is.Keywords: digital elevation model (DEM), flash floods, Saudi Arabia, Tabuk City, watershed modeling system (WMS)
Procedia PDF Downloads 2646719 Studies on Lucrative Design of a Waste Heat Recovery System for Air Conditioners
Authors: Ashwin Bala, K. Panthalaraja Kumaran, S. Prithviraj, R. Pradeep, J. Udhayakumar, S. Ajith
Abstract:
In this paper, studies have been carried out for an in-house design of a waste heat recovery system for effectively utilizing the domestic air conditioner heat energy for producing hot water. Theoretical studies have been carried to optimizing the flow rate for getting maximum output with a minimum size of the heater. Critical diameter, wall thickness, and total length of the water pipeline have been estimated from the conventional heat transfer model. Several combinations of pipeline shapes viz., spiral, coil, zigzag wound through the radiator has been attempted and accordingly shape has been optimized using heat transfer analyses. The initial condition is declared based on the water flow rate and temperature. Through the parametric analytical studies we have conjectured that water flow rate, temperature difference between incoming water and radiator skin temperature, pipe material, radiator material, geometry of the water pipe viz., length, diameter, and wall thickness are having bearing on the lucrative design of a waste heat recovery system for air conditioners. Results generated through the numerical studies have been validated using an in-house waste heat recovery system for air conditioners.Keywords: air conditioner design, energy conversion system, radiator design for energy recovery systems, waste heat recovery system
Procedia PDF Downloads 3576718 Prevalence and Associated Factors of Overweight and Obesity in Children with Intellectual Disability: A Cross-Sectional Study among Chinese Children
Authors: Jing-Jing Wang, Yang Gao, Heather H. M. Kwok, Wendy Y. J. Huang
Abstract:
Objectives: Intellectual disability (ID) ranks among the top 20 most costly disorders. A child with ID creates a wide set of challenges to the individual, family, and society, and overweight and obesity aggravate those challenges. People with ID have the right to attain optimal health like the rest of the population. They should be given priority to eliminate existing health inequities. Childhood obesity epidemic and associated factors among children, in general, has been well documented, while knowledge about overweight and obesity in children with ID is scarce. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 524 Chinese children with ID (males: 68.9%, mean age: 12.2 years) in Hong Kong in 2015. Children’s height and weight were measured at school. Parents, in the presence of their children, completed a self-administered questionnaire at home about the children’s physical activity (PA), eating habits, and sleep duration in a typical week as well as parenting practices regarding children’s eating and PA, and their socio-demographic characteristics. Multivariate logistic regression estimated the potential risk factors for children being overweight. Results: The prevalence of overweight and obesity in children with ID was 31.3%, which was higher than their general counterparts (18.7%-19.9%). Multivariate analyses revealed that the risk factors of overweight and obese in children with ID included: comorbidity with autism, the maternal side being overweight or obese, parenting practices with less pressure to eat more, children having shorter sleep duration, longer periods of sedentary behavior, and higher intake frequencies of sweetened food, fried food, and meats, fish, and eggs. Children born in other places, having snacks more frequently, and having irregular meals were also more likely to be overweight or obese, with marginal significance. Conclusions: Children with ID are more vulnerable to being overweight or obese than their typically developing counterparts. Identified risk factors in this study highlight a multifaceted approach to the involvement of parents as well as the modification of some children’s questionable behaviors to help them achieve a healthy weight.Keywords: prevalence, risk factors, obesity, children with disability
Procedia PDF Downloads 1366717 Pregnancy Outcome in Women with HIV Infection from a Tertiary Care Centre of India
Authors: Kavita Khoiwal, Vatsla Dadhwal, K. Aparna Sharma, Dipika Deka, Plabani Sarkar
Abstract:
Introduction: About 2.4 million (1.93 - 3.04 million) people are living with HIV/AIDS in India. Of all HIV infections, 39% (9,30,000) are among women. 5.4% of infections are from mother to child transmission (MTCT), 25,000 infected children are born every year. Besides the risk of mother to child transmission of HIV, these women are at risk of the higher adverse pregnancy outcome. The objectives of the study were to compare the obstetric and neonatal outcome in women who are HIV positive with low-risk HIV negative women and effect of antiretroviral drugs on preterm birth and IUGR. Materials and Methods: This is a retrospective case record analysis of 212 HIV-positive women delivering between 2002 to 2015, in a tertiary health care centre which was compared with 238 HIV-negative controls. Women who underwent medical termination of pregnancy and abortion were excluded from the study. Obstetric outcome analyzed were pregnancy induced hypertension, HIV positive intrauterine growth restriction, preterm birth, anemia, gestational diabetes and intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy. Neonatal outcome analysed were birth weight, apgar score, NICU admission and perinatal transmission.HIV-positiveOut of 212 women, 204 received antiretroviral therapy (ART) to prevent MTCT, 27 women received single dose nevirapine (sdNVP) or sdNVP tailed with 7 days of zidovudine and lamivudine (ZDV + 3TC), 15 received ZDV, 82 women received duovir and 80 women received triple drug therapy depending upon the time period of presentation. Results: Mean age of 212 HIV positive women was 25.72+3.6 years, 101 women (47.6 %) were primigravida. HIV positive status was diagnosed during pregnancy in 200 women while 12 women were diagnosed prior to conception. Among 212 HIV positive women, 20 (9.4 %) women had preterm delivery (< 37 weeks), 194 women (91.5 %) delivered by cesarean section and 18 women (8.5 %) delivered vaginally. 178 neonates (83.9 %) received exclusive top feeding and 34 neonates (16.03 %) received exclusive breast feeding. When compared to low risk HIV negative women (n=238), HIV positive women were more likely to deliver preterm (OR 1.27), have anemia (OR 1.39) and intrauterine growth restriction (OR 2.07). Incidence of pregnancy induced hypertension, diabetes mellitus and ICP was not increased. Mean birth weight was significantly lower in HIV positive women (2593.60+499 gm) when compared to HIV negative women (2919+459 gm). Complete follow up is available for 148 neonates till date, rest are under evaluation. Out of these 7 neonates found to have HIV positive status. Risk of preterm birth (P value = 0.039) and IUGR (P value = 0.739) was higher in HIV positive women who did not receive any ART during pregnancy than women who received ART. Conclusion: HIV positive pregnant women are at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. Multidisciplinary team approach and use of highly active antiretroviral therapy can optimize the maternal and perinatal outcome.Keywords: antiretroviral therapy, HIV infection, IUGR, preterm birth
Procedia PDF Downloads 2606716 Markowitz and Implementation of a Multi-Objective Evolutionary Technique Applied to the Colombia Stock Exchange (2009-2015)
Authors: Feijoo E. Colomine Duran, Carlos E. Peñaloza Corredor
Abstract:
There modeling component selection financial investment (Portfolio) a variety of problems that can be addressed with optimization techniques under evolutionary schemes. For his feature, the problem of selection of investment components of a dichotomous relationship between two elements that are opposed: The Portfolio Performance and Risk presented by choosing it. This relationship was modeled by Markowitz through a media problem (Performance) - variance (risk), ie must Maximize Performance and Minimize Risk. This research included the study and implementation of multi-objective evolutionary techniques to solve these problems, taking as experimental framework financial market equities Colombia Stock Exchange between 2009-2015. Comparisons three multiobjective evolutionary algorithms, namely the Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), the Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2 (SPEA2) and Indicator-Based Selection in Multiobjective Search (IBEA) were performed using two measures well known performance: The Hypervolume indicator and R_2 indicator, also it became a nonparametric statistical analysis and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. The comparative analysis also includes an evaluation of the financial efficiency of the investment portfolio chosen by the implementation of various algorithms through the Sharpe ratio. It is shown that the portfolio provided by the implementation of the algorithms mentioned above is very well located between the different stock indices provided by the Colombia Stock Exchange.Keywords: finance, optimization, portfolio, Markowitz, evolutionary algorithms
Procedia PDF Downloads 3026715 The Risk of Hyperglycemia Associated with Use of Dolutegravir among Adults Living with HIV in Kampala, Uganda: A Case Control Study
Authors: Daphine Namara, Jeremy I. Schwartz, Andrew K. Tusubira, Willi McFarland, Caroline Birungi, Fred C. Semitala, Martin Muddu
Abstract:
Emerging evidence suggests a possible association between hyperglycemia and dolutegravir (DTG), a preferred first-line antiretroviral agent in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). There is a need for rigorous studies to validate this association in the face of increasing DTG use and the burden of non-communicable diseases among people living with HIV (PLHIV). We conducted a case-control study to assess the risk of hyperglycemia associated with the use of DTG among PLHIV attending Mulago ISS Clinic in Kampala. Cases had hyperglycemia, while controls had no hyperglycemia, as confirmed by fasting plasma glucose and oral glucose tolerance tests. Demographic, laboratory, and clinical data were collected using interviewer-administered questionnaires and medical record abstraction. The analysis compared cases and controls on DTG use prior to diagnosis of hyperglycemia while controlling for potential confounders using multivariable logistic regression. We included 204 cases and 231 controls. In multivariable analysis, patients with prior DTG use had seven times greater odds of subsequent diagnosis of hyperglycemia compared to those who had non-DTG-based regimens (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 7.01, 95% CI 1.96-25.09). The odds of hyperglycemia also increased with age (56 years and above vs. 18-35, aOR 12.38, 95% CI 3.79-40.50) and hypertension (aOR 5.78, 95% CI 2.53-13.21). Our study demonstrates a strong association between prior DTG exposure and subsequent diagnosis of hyperglycemia. Given the benefits of DTG, wide-scale use, and the growing burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) in SSA, there is a need for systematic screening for hyperglycemia and consideration of alternate regimens for those at risk for DM.Keywords: HIV, hyperglycemia, doluteravir, diabetes
Procedia PDF Downloads 866714 Bio-Hub Ecosystems: Investment Risk Analysis Using Monte Carlo Techno-Economic Analysis
Authors: Kimberly Samaha
Abstract:
In order to attract new types of investors into the emerging Bio-Economy, new methodologies to analyze investment risk are needed. The Bio-Hub Ecosystem model was developed to address a critical area of concern within the global energy market regarding the use of biomass as a feedstock for power plants. This study looked at repurposing existing biomass-energy plants into Circular Zero-Waste Bio-Hub Ecosystems. A Bio-Hub model that first targets a ‘whole-tree’ approach and then looks at the circular economics of co-hosting diverse industries (wood processing, aquaculture, agriculture) in the vicinity of the Biomass Power Plants facilities. This study modeled the economics and risk strategies of cradle-to-cradle linkages to incorporate the value-chain effects on capital/operational expenditures and investment risk reductions using a proprietary techno-economic model that incorporates investment risk scenarios utilizing the Monte Carlo methodology. The study calculated the sequential increases in profitability for each additional co-host on an operating forestry-based biomass energy plant in West Enfield, Maine. Phase I starts with the base-line of forestry biomass to electricity only and was built up in stages to include co-hosts of a greenhouse and a land-based shrimp farm. Phase I incorporates CO2 and heat waste streams from the operating power plant in an analysis of lowering and stabilizing the operating costs of the agriculture and aquaculture co-hosts. Phase II analysis incorporated a jet-fuel biorefinery and its secondary slip-stream of biochar which would be developed into two additional bio-products: 1) A soil amendment compost for agriculture and 2) A biochar effluent filter for the aquaculture. The second part of the study applied the Monte Carlo risk methodology to illustrate how co-location derisks investment in an integrated Bio-Hub versus individual investments in stand-alone projects of energy, agriculture or aquaculture. The analyzed scenarios compared reductions in both Capital and Operating Expenditures, which stabilizes profits and reduces the investment risk associated with projects in energy, agriculture, and aquaculture. The major findings of this techno-economic modeling using the Monte Carlo technique resulted in the masterplan for the first Bio-Hub to be built in West Enfield, Maine. In 2018, the site was designated as an economic opportunity zone as part of a Federal Program, which allows for Capital Gains tax benefits for investments on the site. Bioenergy facilities are currently at a critical juncture where they have an opportunity to be repurposed into efficient, profitable and socially responsible investments, or be idled and scrapped. The Bio-hub Ecosystems techno-economic analysis model is a critical model to expedite new standards for investments in circular zero-waste projects. Profitable projects will expedite adoption and advance the critical transition from the current ‘take-make-dispose’ paradigm inherent in the energy, forestry and food industries to a more sustainable Bio-Economy paradigm that supports local and rural communities.Keywords: bio-economy, investment risk, circular design, economic modelling
Procedia PDF Downloads 1016713 Photo-Electrochemical/Electro-Fenton Coupling Oxidation System with Fe/Co-Based Anode and Cathode Metal-Organic Frameworks Derivative Materials for Sulfamethoxazole Treatment
Authors: Xin Chen, Xinyong Li, Qidong Zhao, Dong Wang
Abstract:
A new coupling system was constructed by combining photo-electrochemical cell with electro-fenton cell (PEC-EF). The electrode material in this system was derived from MnyFe₁₋yCo Prussian-Blue-Analog (PBA). Mn₀.₄Fe₀.₆Co₀.₆₇-N@C spin-coated on carbon paper behaved as the gas diffusion cathode and Mn₀.₄Fe₀.₆Co₀.₆₇O₂.₂ spin-coated on fluorine-tin oxide glass (FTO) as anode. The two separated cells could degrade Sulfamethoxazole (SMX) simultaneously and some coupling mechanisms by PEC and EF enhancing the degradation efficiency were investigated. The continuous on-site generation of H₂O₂ at cathode through an oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) was realized over rotating ring-disk electrode (RRDE). The electron transfer number (n) of the ORR with Mn₀.₄Fe₀.₆Co₀.₆₇-N@C was 2.5 in the selected potential and pH range. The photo-electrochemical properties of Mn₀.₄Fe₀.₆Co₀.₆₇O₂.₂ were systematically studied, which displayed good response towards visible light. The photoinduced electrons at anode can transfer to cathode for further use. Efficient photo-electro-catalytic performance was observed in degrading SMX. Almost 100% SMX removal was achieved in 120 min. This work not only provided a highly effective technique for antibiotic treatment but also revealed the synergic effect between PEC and EF.Keywords: electro-fenton, photo-electrochemical, synergic effect, sulfamethoxazole
Procedia PDF Downloads 180