Search results for: confidence indicators

Authors: Marc Evenst Jn Jacques, Sophie Bernard

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Electrical and electronic applications, as well as rechargeable batteries, are common in any economy. They also contain a number of important and valuable metals. It is critical to investigate the impact of these new materials or volume sources on the metal market dynamics. This paper investigates the impact of responsible recycling within the European region on metal price volatility. As far as we know, no empirical studies have been conducted to assess the role of metal recycling in metal market price volatility. The goal of this paper is to test the claim that metal recycling helps to cushion price volatility. A set of circular economy indicators/variables, namely, 1) annual total trade values of recycled metals, 2) annual volume of scrap traded and 3) circular material use rate, and 4) information about recycling, are used to estimate the volatility of monthly spot prices of regular metals. A combination of the GARCH-MIDAS model for mixed frequency data sampling and a simple GARCH (1,1) model for the same frequency variables was adopted to examine the potential links between each variable and price volatility. We discovered that from 2010 to 2019, except for Nickel, scrap consumption (Millions of tons), Scrap Trade Values, and Recycled Material use rate had no significant impact on the price volatility of standard metals (Aluminum, Lead) and precious metals (Gold and Platinum). Worldwide interest in recycling has no impact on returns or volatility. Specific interest in metal recycling did have a link to the mean return equation for Aluminum, Gold and to the volatility equation for lead and Nickel.

Keywords: recycling, circular economy, price volatility, GARCH, mixed data sampling

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Authors: Adam Y. Sulaiman, Donal F. Cotter, Ming J. Huang, Neil J. Hewitt

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Suitable low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants that conform to F-gas regulations are required to extend the operational envelope of high-temperature heat pumps (HTHPs) used for industrial waste heat recovery processes. The thermophysical properties and characteristics of these working fluids need to be assessed to provide a comprehensive understanding of operational effectiveness in HTHP applications. This paper presents the results of a theoretical simulation to investigate a range of low-GWP refrigerants and their suitability to supersede refrigerants HFC-245fa and HFC-365mfc. A steady-state thermodynamic model of a single-stage HTHP with an internal heat exchanger (IHX) was developed to assess system cycle characteristics at temperature ranges between 50 to 80 °C heat source and 90 to 150 °C heat sink. A practical approach to maximize the operational efficiency was examined to determine the effects of regulating minimum superheat within the process and subsequent influence on energetic and exergetic efficiencies. A comprehensive map of minimum superheat across the HTHP operating variables were used to assess specific tipping points in performance at 30 and 70 K temperature lifts. Based on initial results, the refrigerants HCFO-1233zd(E) and HFO-1336mzz(Z) were found to be closely aligned matches for refrigerants HFC-245fa and HFC-365mfc. The overall results show effective performance for HCFO-1233zd(E) occurs between 5-7 K minimum superheat, and HFO-1336mzz(Z) between 18-21 K dependant on temperature lift. This work provides a method to optimize refrigerant selection based on operational indicators to maximize overall HTHPs system performance.

Keywords: high-temperature heat pump, minimum superheat, energy & exergy efficiency, low GWP refrigerants

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Authors: Paula M. Lantz

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In the United States, significant socioeconomic and racial inequalities exist in many population-based indicators of health and social welfare. Although a number of effective prevention programs and interventions are available, local and state governments often do not pursue prevention in the face of budgetary constraints and more acute problems. There is growing interest in and excitement about Pay for Success” (PFS) strategies, also referred to as social impact bonds, as an approach to financing and implementing promising prevention programs and services that help the public sector either save money or achieve greater value for an investment. The PFS finance model implements evidence-based interventions using capital from investors who only receive a return on their investment from the government if agreed-upon, measurable outcomes are achieved. This paper discusses the current landscape regarding social impact bonds in the U.S., and their potential and challenges in addressing serious health and social problems. The paper presents an analysis of a number of social science issues that are fundamental to the potential for social impact bonds to successfully address social inequalities in health and social welfare. This includes: a) the economics of the intervention and a potential public payout; b) organizational and management issues in intervention implementation; c) evaluation research design and methods; d) legal/regulatory issues in public payouts to investors; e) ethical issues in the design of social impact bond deals and their evaluation; and f) political issues. Despite significant challenges in the U.S. context, there is great potential for social impact bonds as a type of social impact investing to encourage private investments in evidence-based interventions that address important public health and social problems in underserved populations and provide a return on investment.

Keywords: pay for success, public/private partnerships, social impact bonds, social impact investing

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Authors: Malani Herath, Sohan Wijesekera, Jagath Munasingha

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The impact of recent floods become significant, and the extraordinary flood events cause considerable damage to lives, properties, environment and negatively affect the whole development of Colombo urban region. Even though the Colombo urban region experiences recurrent flood impacts, several spatial planning interventions have been taken from time to time since early 20th century. All past plans have adopted a traditional approach to flood management, using infrastructural measures to reduce the chance of flooding together with rigid planning regulations. The existing flood risk management practices do not operate to be acceptable by the local community particular the urban poor. Researchers have constantly reported the differences in estimations of flood risk, priorities, concerns of experts and the local community. Risk-based decision making in flood management is not only a matter of technical facts; it has a significant bearing on how flood risk is viewed by local community and individuals. Moreover, sustainable flood management is an integrated approach, which highlights joint actions of experts and community. This indicates the necessity of further societal discussion on the acceptable level of flood risk indicators to prioritize and identify the appropriate flood management measures in Colombo. The understanding and evaluation of flood risk by local people are important to integrate in the decision-making process. This research questioned about the gap between the acceptable level of flood risk to spatial planners and to the local communities in Colombo. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to prepare a framework to analyze the public perception in Colombo. This research work identifies the factors that affect the variation of flood risk and acceptable levels to both local community and planning authorities.

Keywords: Colombo basin, public perception, urban flood risk, multi-criteria analysis

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Authors: Arbolino Roberta, Boffardi Raffaele

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Achieving the highest effectiveness for the National Plans for Recovery and Resilience (NPRR) while strengthening the objectives of cohesion and reduction of intra-EU unbalances is only possible by means of strategic, coordinated, and coherent policy planning. Therefore, the present research aims at assessing and quantifying the potential impact of NPRRs across the twenty-seven European Member States in terms of economic convergence, considering disaggregated data on industrial, construction, and service sectors. The first step of the research involves a performance analysis of the main macroeconomic indicators describing the trends of twenty-seven EU economies before the pandemic outbreak. Subsequently, in order to define the potential effect of the resources allocated, we perform an impact analysis of previous similar EU investment policies, estimating national-level sectoral elasticity associated with the expenditure of the 2007-2013 and 2014-2020 Cohesion programmes funds. These coefficients are then exploited to construct adjustment scenarios. Finally, convergence analysis is performed on the data used for constructing scenarios in order to understand whether the expenditure of funds might be useful to foster economic convergence besides driving recovery. The results of our analysis show that the allocation of resources largely mirrors the aims of the policy framework underlying the NPRR, thus reporting the largest investments in both those sectors most affected by the economic shock (services) and those considered fundamental for the digital and green transition. Notwithstanding an overall positive effect, large differences exist among European countries, while no convergence process seems to be activated or fostered by these interventions.

Keywords: NPRR, policy evaluation, cohesion policy, scenario Nalsysi

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Authors: Stephen M. Magu

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The 9/11 and Christmas bombing attacks in the United States are mostly associated with the inability of intelligence agencies to connect dots based on intelligence that was already available. The 1998, 2002, 2013 and several 2014 terrorist attacks in Kenya, on the other hand, are probably driven by a completely different dynamic: the invisible hand of corruption. The World Bank and Transparency International annually compute the Worldwide Governance Indicators and the Corruption Perception Index respectively. What perhaps is not adequately captured in the corruption metrics is the impact of corruption on terrorism. The World Bank data includes variables such as the control of corruption, (estimates of) government effectiveness, political stability and absence of violence/terrorism, regulatory quality, rule of law and voice and accountability. TI's CPI does not include measures related to terrorism, but it is plausible that there is an expectation of some terrorism impact arising from corruption. This paper, by examining the incidence, frequency and total number of terrorist attacks that have occurred especially since 1990, and further examining the specific cases of Kenya and Nigeria, argues that in addition to having major effects on governance, corruption has an even more frightening impact: that of facilitating and/or violating security mechanisms to the extent that foreign nationals can easily obtain identification that enables them to perpetuate major events, targeting powerful countries' interests in countries with weak corruption-fighting mechanisms. The paper aims to model interactions that demonstrate the cost/benefit analysis and agents' rational calculations as being non-rational calculations, given the ultimate impact. It argues that eradication of corruption is not just a matter of a better business environment, but that it is implicit in national security, and that for anti-corruption crusaders, this is an argument more potent than the economic cost / cost of doing business argument.

Keywords: corruption, global south, identification, passports, terrorism

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Authors: Anthony J. Kondracki, Bonzo I. Reddick, Jennifer L. Barkin

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We sought to examine the association of maternal Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG), and treponema pallidum (TP) (syphilis) infections with preterm birth (PTB) (<37 weeks gestation), low birth weight (LBW) (<2500 grams) and prenatal care (PNC) attendance. This cross-sectional study was based on data drawn from the 2020 United States National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Natality File. We estimated the prevalence of all births, early/late PTBs, moderately/very LBW, and the distribution of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) according to maternal characteristics in the sample. In multivariable logistic regression models, we examined adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of PTB and LBW subcategories in the association with maternal/infant characteristics, PNC status, and maternal CT, NG, and TP infections. In separate logistic regression models, we assessed the risk of these newborn outcomes stratified by PNC status. Adjustments were made for race/ethnicity, age, education, marital status, health insurance, liveborn parity, previous preterm birth, gestational hypertension, gestational diabetes, PNC status, smoking, and infant sex. Additionally, in a sensitivity analysis, we assessed the association with early, full, and late term births and the potential impact of unmeasured confounding using the E-value. CT (1.8%) was most prevalent STI in pregnancy, followed by NG (0.3%), and TP (0.1%). Non-Hispanic Black women, 20-24 years old, with a high school education, and on Medicaid had the highest rate of STIs. Around 96.6% of women reported receiving PNC and about 60.0% initiated PNC early in pregnancy. PTB and LBW were strongly associated with NG infection (12.2% and 12.1%, respectively) and late initiation/no PNC (8.5% and 7.6%, respectively), and ≤10 prenatal visits received (13.1% and 10.3%, respectively). The odds of PTB and LBW were 2.5- to 3-foldhigher for each STI among women who received ≤10 prenatal visits than >10 visits. Adequate prenatal care utilization and timely screening and treatment of maternal STIs can substantially reduce the burden of adverse newborn outcomes.

Keywords: low birthweight, prenatal care, preterm birth, sexually transmitted infections

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Authors: Henok Yebyo Henok, Araya Abrha Araya, Alemayehu Bayray Alemayehu, Gelila Goba Gelila

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Background: Every year, an estimated 19–20 million unsafe abortions take place, almost all in developing countries, leading to 68,000 deaths and millions more injured many permanently. Many women throughout the world, experience more than one abortion in their lifetimes. Repeat abortion is an indicator of the larger problem of unintended pregnancy. This study aimed to identify determinants of repeat abortion in Tigray Region, Ethiopia. Methods: Unmatched case-control study was conducted in hospitals in Tigray Region, Northern Ethiopia, from November 2014 to June 2015. The sample included 105 cases and 204 controls, recruited from among women seeking abortion care at public hospitals. Clients having two or more abortions (“repeat abortion”) were taken as cases, and those who had a total of one abortion were taken as controls (“single abortion”). Cases were selected consecutive based on proportional to size allocation while systematic sampling was employed for controls. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 20.0. Binary and multiple variable logistic regression analyses were calculated with 95% CI. Results: Mean age of cases was 24 years (±6.85) and 22 years (±6.25) for controls. 79.0% of cases had their sexual debut in less than 18 years of age compared to 57% of controls. 42.2% of controls and 23.8% of cases cited rape as the reason for having an abortion. Study participants who did not understand their fertility cycle and when they were most likely to conceive after menstruation (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=2.0, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1-3.7), having a previous abortion using medication(AOR=3.3, CI: 1.83, 6.11), having multiple sexual partners in the preceding 12 months (AOR=4.4, CI: 2.39,8.45), perceiving that the abortion procedure is not painful (AOR=2.3, CI: 1.31,4.26), initiating sexual intercourse before the age of 18 years (AOR=2.7, CI: 1.49, 5.23) and disclosure to a third-party about terminating the pregnancy (AOR=2.1, CI: 1.2,3.83) were independent predictors of repeat abortion. Conclusion: This study identified several factors correlated with women having repeat abortions. It may be helpful for the Government of Ethiopia to encourage women to delay sexual debut and decrease their number of sexual partners, including by promoting discussion within families about sexuality, to decrease the occurrence of repeated abortion.

Keywords: abortion, Ethiopia, repeated abortion, single abortion

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Authors: Mazwane S., Makhura M. N., Ginege A.

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Digitalization in South Africa has received considerable attention from policymakers. The support for the development of the digital economy by the South African government has been demonstrated through the enactment of various national policies and strategies. This study sought to develop an index for agricultural digitalization by applying composite confirmatory analysis (CCA). Another aim was to determine the factors that affect the development of digitalization in PLAS farms. Data on the indicators of the three dimensions of digitalization were collected from 300 Proactive Land Acquisition Strategy (PLAS) farms in South Africa using semi-structured questionnaires. Confirmatory composite analysis (CCA) was employed to reduce the items into three digitalization dimensions and ultimately to a digitalization index. Standardized digitalization index scores were extracted and fitted to a linear regression model to determine the factors affecting digitalization development. The results revealed that the model shows practical validity and can be used to measure digitalization development as measures of fit (geodesic distance, standardized root mean square residual, and squared Euclidean distance) were all below their respective 95%quantiles of bootstrap discrepancies (HI95 values). Therefore, digitalization is an emergent variable that can be measured using CCA. The average level of digitalization in PLAS farms was 0.2 and varied significantly across provinces. The factors that significantly influence digitalization development in PLAS land reform farms were age, gender, farm type, network type, and cellular data type. This should enable researchers and policymakers to understand the level of digitalization and patterns of development, as well as correctly attribute digitalization development to the contributing factors.

Keywords: agriculture, digitalization, confirmatory composite model, land reform, proactive land acquisition strategy, South Africa

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Authors: Jessica Achebe, Susan Tighe

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The reduction of material consumption and greenhouse gas emission when maintain and rehabilitating road networks can achieve added benefits including improved life cycle performance of pavements, reduced climate change impacts and human health effect due to less air pollution, improved productivity due to an optimal allocation of resources and reduced road user cost. This is the essence of incorporating environmental sustainability into pavement management. The functionality of performance measurement approach has made it one of the most valuable tool to Pavement Management Systems (PMSs) to account for different criteria in the decision-making process. However measuring the environmental performance of road network is still a far-fetched practice in road network management, more so an ostensive agency-wide environmental sustainability or sustainable maintenance specifications is missing. To address this challenge, this present research focuses on the environmental sustainability performance of network-level pavement management. The ultimate goal is to develop a framework to incorporate environmental sustainability in pavement management systems for network-level maintenance programming. In order to achieve this goal, this paper present the first step, the intention is to review the previous studies that employed environmental performance measures, as well as the suitability of environmental performance indicators for the evaluation of the sustainability of network-level pavement maintenance strategies. Through an industry practice survey, this paper provides a brief forward regarding the pavement manager motivations and barriers to making more sustainable decisions, and data needed to support the network-level environmental sustainability. The trends in network-level sustainable pavement management are also presented, existing gaps are highlighted, and ideas are proposed for network-level sustainable maintenance and rehabilitation programming.

Keywords: pavement management, environment sustainability, network-level evaluation, performance measures

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Authors: Meng-Na Dai, Bao-Fang Wen, Gao-Pei Zhu, Chen-Xi Zhang, Jing Sun, Chang-Hai Tang, Zhi-Qiang Feng, Wen-Qiang Yin

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Based on the analysis of literature in the health emergency management in China with recent 10 years, this paper discusses the Chinese current research hotspots, development trends and shortcomings in this field, and provides references for scholars to conduct follow-up research. CNKI(China National Knowledge Infrastructure), Weipu, and Wanfang were the databases of this literature. The key words during the database search were health, emergency, and management with the time from 2009 to 2018. The duplicate, non-academic, and unrelated documents were excluded. 901 articles were included in the literature review database. The main indicators of abstraction were, the number of articles published every year, authors, institutions, periodicals, etc. There are some research findings through the analysis of the literature. Overall, the number of literature in the health emergency management in China has shown a fluctuating downward trend in recent 10 years. Specifically, there is a lack of close cooperation between authors, which has not constituted the core team among them yet. Meanwhile, in this field, the number of high-level periodicals and quality literature is scarce. In addition, there are a lot of research hotspots, such as emergency management system, mechanism research, capacity evaluation index system research, plans and capacity-building research, etc. In the future, we should increase the scientific research funding of the health emergency management, encourage collaborative innovation among authors in multi-disciplinary fields, and create high-quality and high-impact journals in this field. The states should encourage scholars in this field to carry out more academic cooperation and communication with the whole world and improve the research in breadth and depth. Generally speaking, the research in health emergency management in China is still insufficient and needs to be improved.

Keywords: health emergency management, research situation, bibliometrics, literature

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Authors: Rogaleva Liudmila, Malkin Valery

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Physical culture lessons are considered not only to be a means of physical development of students, but a matter of their personal development. Physical culture lessons can enable to develop such qualities of students as activity and initiation, readiness to cooperate, self-confidence, ability to define and reach targets, readiness to overcome difficulties and assess their abilities (and disadvantages) properly in any precise situation as well to be responsible for their own decision. The solution of this problem is possible under the circumstance if the students aware themselves as the subject of the activity that are able to develop their possibilities. The research was aimed to learn the matters that enable female teenagers of senior forms to become strong personalities attending physical culture lessons. There were two stages of the research. At the first stage we define the interests and demands of the girls. According the results of research we changed the programme of physical culture lessons. We took into consideration values of youth subculture: youth music, preferences to sport-dancing physical activities, demand of self-determination, revealing their individualities, needs of cooperative work. At the second stage we worked out motivating technology of course. This technology was aimed to create sush conditions under which students could show themselves as the subjects of activity and self-development. The active participation sport-dance festivals during 2-3 years creates the conditions for their self-realization. 78% students of the experimental groups considered their main motives to were: the interest, developing of their abilities, the satisfaction of the achievements of targets. Control groups 67% of the students claimed the success school good marks. The girls said that due to festivals they became self-confident (94%), responsible (86%), ability to cooperate (73%), aspiration for reaching the target (68%), self-exactingness (57 %). The main factors that provide successful performance were called: efforts to reach the target (87%), mutual support and mutual understanding (77%). The research on values showed that in the experimental groups we can find increase of importance of such values as: social initiative (active life) 83%, friends (75%), self-control (73%), effectiveness in deeds (58%).

Keywords: physical culture, subject, personal development, self-determination

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Authors: Dale Dzemydiene, Aurelija Burinskiene, Arunas Miliauskas, Kristina Ciziuniene

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Data flow and the purpose of reporting the data are different and dependent on business needs. Different parameters are reported and transferred regularly during freight delivery. This business practices form the dataset constructed for each time point and contain all required information for freight moving decisions. As a significant amount of these data is used for various purposes, an integrating methodological approach must be developed to respond to the indicated problem. The proposed methodology contains several steps: (1) collecting context data sets and data validation; (2) multi-objective analysis for optimizing freight transfer services. For data validation, the study involves Grubbs outliers analysis, particularly for data cleaning and the identification of statistical significance of data reporting event cases. The Grubbs test is often used as it measures one external value at a time exceeding the boundaries of standard normal distribution. In the study area, the test was not widely applied by authors, except when the Grubbs test for outlier detection was used to identify outsiders in fuel consumption data. In the study, the authors applied the method with a confidence level of 99%. For the multi-objective analysis, the authors would like to select the forms of construction of the genetic algorithms, which have more possibilities to extract the best solution. For freight delivery management, the schemas of genetic algorithms' structure are used as a more effective technique. Due to that, the adaptable genetic algorithm is applied for the description of choosing process of the effective transportation corridor. In this study, the multi-objective genetic algorithm methods are used to optimize the data evaluation and select the appropriate transport corridor. The authors suggest a methodology for the multi-objective analysis, which evaluates collected context data sets and uses this evaluation to determine a delivery corridor for freight transfer service in the multi-modal transportation network. In the multi-objective analysis, authors include safety components, the number of accidents a year, and freight delivery time in the multi-modal transportation network. The proposed methodology has practical value in the management of multi-modal transportation processes.

Keywords: multi-objective, analysis, data flow, freight delivery, methodology

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Authors: Marinel Dayawon

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Student participation in classroom activities is vital in the teaching- learning the process as it develops self-confidence, social relationships and good academic performance of students. It is the teacher’s empathetic manner and creativity to create solutions that encourage teamwork and mutual support while dropping the academic competition within the class that hinder every shy student to walk with courage and talk with conviction because they consider their ideas, weak, as compared to the bright students. This study aimed to explore the different design thinking strategies that will change the mindset of shy students in classroom activities, maximizing their participation in all given tasks while sharing their views through ideation and providing them a wider world through compromise agreement within the members of the group, sensitivity to one’s idea, thus, arriving at a collective decision in the development of a prototype that indicates improvement in their classroom involvement. The study used the qualitative type of research. Triangulation is done through participant observation, focus group discussion and interview, documented through photos and videos. The respondents were the second- year Bachelor of Secondary Education students of the Institute of Teacher Education at Isabela State University- Cauayan City Campus. The result of the study revealed that reticent students when involved in game activities through a slap and tap method, writing their clustered ideas, using sticky notes is excited in sharing ideas as it doesn’t use oral communication. It is also observed after three weeks of using the design thinking strategies; shy students volunteer as secretary, rapporteur or group leader in the team- building activities as it represents the ideas of the heterogeneous group, removing the individual identity of the ideas. Superior students learned to listen to the ideas of the reticent students and involved them in the prototyping process of designing a remediation program for high school students showing reticence in the classroom, making their experience as a benchmark. The strategies made a 360- degrees transformation of the shy students, producing their journal log, in their journey to being open. Thus, faculty members are now adopting the design thinking approach.

Keywords: design thinking activities, qualitative, reticent students, Isabela, Philippines

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Authors: Judith Klostermann, Miguel Segura, Wilma Jans, Dragana Bojovic, Isadora Christel Jimenez, Francisco Doblas-Reyees, Judit Snethlage

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The Climate Data Store (CDS), developed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Union, is intended to become a key instrument for exploring climate data. The CDS contains both raw and processed data to provide information to the users about the past, present and future climate of the earth. It allows for easy and free access to climate data and indicators, presenting an important asset for scientists and stakeholders on the path for achieving a more sustainable future. The C3S Evaluation and Quality Control (EQC) is assessing the quality of the CDS by undertaking a comprehensive user requirement assessment to measure the users’ satisfaction. Recommendations will be developed for the improvement and expansion of the CDS datasets and products. User requirements will be identified on the fitness of the datasets, the toolbox, and the overall CDS service. The EQC function of the CDS will help C3S to make the service more robust: integrated by validated data that follows high-quality standards while being user-friendly. This function will be closely developed with the users of the service. Through their feedback, suggestions, and contributions, the CDS can become more accessible and meet the requirements for a diverse range of users. Stakeholders and their active engagement are thus an important aspect of CDS development. This will be achieved with direct interactions with users such as meetings, interviews or workshops as well as different feedback mechanisms like surveys or helpdesk services at the CDS. The results provided by the users will be categorized as a function of CDS products so that their specific interests will be monitored and linked to the right product. Through this procedure, we will identify the requirements and criteria for data and products in order to build the correspondent recommendations for the improvement and expansion of the CDS datasets and products.

Keywords: climate data store, Copernicus, quality, user engagement

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Authors: Colm Barcoe, Garvan Whelan

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Over the past five years, visitations of American holidaymakers to Ireland have grown exponentially owing to the online strategies of Tourism Ireland, a Destination Marketer (DMO) with a meagre budget which is extended by their understanding of best practices to maximise their monetary allowance. This suggested framework incorporates a range of Key Performance Indicators (KPI’s) such as financial, marketing, and operational that offer a scale of measurement from which the Irish DMO can monitor the success of each promotional campaign when targeting the US and Canada. These are presented not as final solutions but rather as suggestions based on empirical evidence obtained from both primary and secondary sources. This research combines the wisdom extracted through qualitative methodologies with the objective of understanding the processes that drive both emergent and agile strategies. The Study extends the work relative to performance and examines the role of social media in the context of promoting Ireland to North America. There are two main themes that are identified and analysed in this investigation, these are the approach of the DMO when advocating Ireland as a brand and the benefits of digital platforms set against a proposed scale of KPIs, such as destination marketing, brand positioning, and identity development. The key narrative of this analysis is to focus on the power of social media when capitalising upon marketing opportunities, operating on a relatively small budget. This will always be a relevant theme of discussion due to the responsibility of an organisation like Tourism Ireland operating under the restraints imposed by government funding. The overall conclusions of this research may help inform those concerned with the implementing of social media strategies develop clearer models of measurement when promoting a destination to North America. The suggestions of this study will benefit small and medium enterprises particularly.

Keywords: destination marketing, framework, measure, performance

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Authors: Elza Jurun, Damir Piplica, Tea Poklepović

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Numerous studies carried out in the developed western democratic countries have shown that the ideological framework of the governing party has a significant influence on the monetary policy. The executive authority consisting of a left-wing party gives a higher weight to unemployment suppression and central bank implements a more expansionary monetary policy. On the other hand, right-wing governing party considers the monetary stability to be more important than unemployment suppression and in such a political framework the main macroeconomic objective becomes the inflation rate reduction. The political framework conditions in the transition countries which are new European Union (EU) members are still highly specific in relation to the other EU member countries. In the focus of this paper is the question whether the same monetary policy principles are valid in these transitional countries as well as they apply in developed western democratic EU member countries. The data base consists of inflation rate and unemployment rate for 11 transitional EU member countries covering the period from 2001 to 2012. The essential information for each of these 11 countries and for each year of the observed period is right or left political orientation of the ruling party. In this paper we use t-statistics to test our hypothesis that there are differences in inflation and unemployment between right and left political orientation of the governing party. To explore the influence of different countries, through years and different political orientations descriptive statistics is used. Inflation and unemployment should be strongly negatively correlated through time, which is tested using Pearson correlation coefficient. Regarding the fact whether the governing authority is consisted from left or right politically oriented parties, monetary authorities will adjust its policy setting the higher priority on lower inflation or unemployment reduction.

Keywords: inflation rate, monetary policy orientation, transition EU countries, unemployment rate

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Authors: Caglayan Hizal, Kutay Yuceturk, Ertugrul Turker Uzun, Hasan Ceylan, Engin Aktas, Gursoy Turan

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Monitoring concepts for structural systems have been investigated by researchers for decades since such tools are quite convenient to determine intervention planning of structures. Despite the considerable development in this regard, the efficient use of monitoring data in reliability assessment, and prediction models are still in need of improvement in their efficiency. More specifically, reliability-based seismic risk assessment of engineering structures may play a crucial role in the post-earthquake decision-making process for the structures. After an earthquake, professionals could identify heavily damaged structures based on visual observations. Among these, it is hard to identify the ones with minimum signs of damages, even if they would experience considerable structural degradation. Besides, visual observations are open to human interpretations, which make the decision process controversial, and thus, less reliable. In this context, when a continuous monitoring system has been previously installed on the corresponding structure, this decision process might be completed rapidly and with higher confidence by means of the observed data. At this stage, the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) procedure has an important role since it can make it possible to estimate the system reliability based on a recursively updated mathematical model. Therefore, integrating an SHM procedure into the reliability assessment process comes forward as an important challenge due to the arising uncertainties for the updated model in case of the environmental, material and earthquake induced changes. In this context, this study presents a case study on SHM-integrated reliability assessment of the continuously monitored progressively damaged systems. The objective of this study is to get instant feedback on the current state of the structure after an extreme event, such as earthquakes, by involving the observed data rather than the visual inspections. Thus, the decision-making process after such an event can be carried out on a rational basis. In the near future, this can give wing to the design of self-reported structures which can warn about its current situation after an extreme event.

Keywords: condition assessment, vibration-based SHM, reliability analysis, seismic risk assessment

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Authors: A. Anastasopoulou, A. Kolios, T. Somorin, A. Sowale, Y. Jiang, B. Fidalgo, A. Parker, L. Williams, M. Collins, E. J. McAdam, S. Tyrrel

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Developing countries are nowadays confronted with great challenges related to domestic sanitation services in view of the imminent water scarcity. Contemporary sanitation technologies established in these countries are likely to pose health risks unless waste management standards are followed properly. This paper provides a solution to sustainable sanitation with the development of an innovative toilet system, called Nano Membrane Toilet (NMT), which has been developed by Cranfield University and sponsored by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The particular technology converts human faeces into energy through gasification and provides treated wastewater from urine through membrane filtration. In order to evaluate the environmental profile of the NMT system, a deterministic life cycle assessment (LCA) has been conducted in SimaPro software employing the Ecoinvent v3.3 database. The particular study has determined the most contributory factors to the environmental footprint of the NMT system. However, as sensitivity analysis has identified certain critical operating parameters for the robustness of the LCA results, adopting a stochastic approach to the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) will comprehensively capture the input data uncertainty and enhance the credibility of the LCA outcome. For that purpose, Monte Carlo simulations, in combination with an artificial neural network (ANN) model, have been conducted for the input parameters of raw material, produced electricity, NO_X emissions, amount of ash and transportation of fertilizer. The given analysis has provided the distribution and the confidence intervals of the selected impact categories and, in turn, more credible conclusions are drawn on the respective LCIA (Life Cycle Impact Assessment) profile of NMT system. Last but not least, the specific study will also yield essential insights into the methodological framework that can be adopted in the environmental impact assessment of other complex engineering systems subject to a high level of input data uncertainty.

Keywords: sanitation systems, nano-membrane toilet, lca, stochastic uncertainty analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, artificial neural network

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Authors: Najla Alhkalaf

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The focus of this study is answering the following question: How do e-government services in Bahrain support the productivity of SMEs? This study examines the current E-government function in enhancing SME productivity in Bahrain through analysing the efficiency of e- government by viewing its facilitators and barriers from the perspective of different stakeholders. The study aims to identify and develop best practice guidelines with the end-goal of creating a standardised channel of communication between e-government and SMEs that fulfil the requirement of SME owners, and thus achieve the prime objective of e-government. E-government services for SMEs have been offered in Bahrain since 2005. However, the current services lack the required mechanism for SMEs to fully take advantage of these services because of lagging communication between service provider and end-user. E-government employees believe that a lack of awareness and trust are the main stumbling block, whereas the SME owners believe that there is a lack of sufficiency in the content and efficiency provided through e- services. A questionnaire has been created based on a pilot study that highlighted the main indicators of e-government efficiency and SMEs productivity as well as previous studies conducted on this subject. This allowed for quantitative data to be extracted. Also interviews were conducted with SME owners and government employees from both case studies, which formed the qualitative data for this study. The findings portray that both the service provider and service receiver largely agree on the existence of most of the technical and administrative barriers. However, the data reflects a level of dissatisfaction from the SME side, which contradicts with the perceived level of satisfaction from the government employees. Therefore, the data supports the argument that assures the existence of a communication gap between stakeholders. To this effect, this research would help build channels of communication between stakeholders, and then induces a plan unlocking the potential of e-government application. The conclusions of this study will help devise an optimised E-government strategy for Bahrain.

Keywords: e-government, SME, e-services, G2B, government employees' perspective, entrepreneurs' perspective, enterprise

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Authors: B. Baba Ahmed, P. Yanogo, B. Djibryl. N. Medas

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Introduction: Polio is a highly contagious viral infection, with children under 5 years of age being the most affected. It is a public health emergency of international concern. Polio surveillance in Mauritania has been ongoing since 1998 and has achieved "polio free" status in 2007. our objective is to analyse a pidemiological surveillance database of poliomyélitis in Mauritania from 2012-2019. Method: A transversal descriptive analysis of poliomyélitis database was carried out in Mauritania from 2012-2019.An exhaustive sampling was done on all suspected polio cases recorded in the database from 2012 -2019. This study used EPI-INFO 7.4 for frequency calculation for qualitative variables, mean and standard deviation for quantitative variables. Results: We found 459 suspected cases of polio over the study period with an average rate of acute non-polio flaccid paralysis of 25.4 cases/100,000 children under 15 years of age. The age group 0-6 years represented 75.2%. Males constituted 50.2%. Females represented 49.78% with a ratio of M/F=1.Among the 422 observations, the average age is 4 years +/- 3.38. The four regions, TIRIS-ZEMMOUR, INCHIRI, TAGANT, NOUACHCHOTT OUEST recorded the lowest percentages of notifications, respectively (3.28%; 3.93%; 4.37%; 4.8%). 99.34% [98.09-99.78] of cases presented acute flaccid paralysis. And 56.77% [52.19-61.23], had limb asymmetry. We showed that 82.93% [79.21-86.10], had fever. we found that 89.5% of suspected polio cases were investigated before 48 hours. And 88.39% of suspected cases had two adequate samples taken 48 hours apart and within 14 days after the onset of symptoms. Only 30.95% of samples arrived at the referral laboratory before 72 hours. Conclusion: This study has shown that Mauritania has achieved the objectives in most of the quantitative performance indicators of polio surveillance. This study has shown a low notification of cases in the northern and central regions of the country. There is a problem with the transport of samples to the laboratory.

Keywords: analysis, data base, Epi-Info, polio

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Authors: Sujesh F. Sujan, Steve W. Jones, Arto Kiviniemi

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The use of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in the Architectural-Engineering-Construction (AEC) industry is a form of systemic innovation. Unlike incremental innovation, (such as the technological development of CAD from hand based drawings to 2D electronically printed drawings) any form of systemic innovation in Project-Based Inter-Organisational Networks requires complete collaboration and results in numerous benefits if adopted and utilised properly. Proper use of BIM involves people collaborating with the use of interoperable BIM compliant tools. The AEC industry globally has been known for its adversarial and fragmented nature where firms take advantage of one another to increase their own profitability. Due to the industry’s nature, getting people to collaborate by unifying their goals is critical to successful BIM adoption. However, this form of innovation is often being forced artificially in the old ways of working which do not suit collaboration. This may be one of the reasons for its low global use even though the technology was developed more than 20 years ago. Therefore, there is a need to develop a metric/method to support and allow industry players to gain confidence in their investment into BIM software and workflow methods. This paper departs from defining systemic risk as a risk that affects all the project participants at a given stage of a project and defines categories of systemic risks. The need to generalise is to allow method applicability to any industry where the category will be the same, but the example of the risk will depend on the industry the study is done in. The method proposed seeks to use individual perception of an example of systemic risk as a key parameter. The significance of this study lies in relating the variance of individual perception of systemic risk to how much the team is collaborating. The method bases its notions on the claim that a more unified range of individual perceptions would mean a higher probability that the team is collaborating better. Since contracts and procurement devise how a project team operates, the method could also break the methodological barrier of highly subjective findings that case studies inflict, which has limited the possibility of generalising between global industries. Since human nature applies in all industries, the authors’ intuition is that perception can be a valuable parameter to study collaboration which is essential especially in projects that utilise systemic innovation such as BIM.

Keywords: building information modelling, perception of risk, systemic innovation, team collaboration

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Authors: M. Shaheed Hartley

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Science and mathematics are regarded as gateway subjects in South Africa as they are the perceived route to careers in science, engineering, technology and mathematics (STEM). One of the biggest challenges that the country faces is the poor achievement of learners in these two learning areas in the external high school exit examination. To compound the problem many national and international benchmark tests paint a bleak picture of the state of science and mathematics in the country. In an attempt to address this challenge, the education department of the Eastern Cape Province invited the Science Learning Centre of the University of the Western Cape to provide training to their science teachers in the form of a structured course conducted on a part-time basis in 2010 and 2011. The course was directed at improving teachers’ content knowledge, pedagogical strategies and practical and experimental skills. A total of 41 of the original 50 science teachers completed the course and received their certificates in 2012. As part of their continuous professional development, 31 science teachers enrolled for BEd Hons in science education in 2013 and 28 of them completed the course in 2014. These students graduated in 2015. Of the 28 BEd Hons students who completed the course 23 registered in 2015 for Masters in Science Education and were joined by an additional 3 students. This paper provides a reflection by science educators on the training, supervision and mentorship provided to them as students of science education. The growth and development of students through their own reflection and understanding as well as through the eyes of the lecturers and supervisors that took part in the training provide the evaluation of the professional development process over the past few years. This study attempts to identify the merits, challenges and limitations of this project and the lessons to be learnt on such projects. It also documents some of the useful performance indicators with a view to developing a framework for good practice for such programmes.

Keywords: reflection, science education, professional development, rural schools

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Authors: William Thomas Worster

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Diplomatic assurances issued by states declaring that they will not mistreat individuals returned to them occupy a strange middle ground between being legal and non-legal obligations. States assert that they are non-binding, yet at other times that they are binding. However, this assertion may not be the end of the discussion. The International Court of Justice and other tribunals have concluded that similar instruments were binding, states have disagreed that certain similar instruments were binding, and the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties and its travaux prépératoires do not appear to contemplate non-binding instruments. This paper is a case study of diplomatic assurances but, by necessity, touches on the delicate question of whether certain texts are treaties, promises, or non-binding political statements. International law, and law in general, requires a binary approach to obligation. All communications must be binding or not, even if the fit is not precise. Through this study, we will find that some of the obligations in certain assurances can be understood as legal and some not. We will attempt to state the current methodology for determining which obligations are legal under the law of treaties and law on binding unilateral promises. The paper begins with some background of the legal environment of diplomatic assurances and their use in cases of expulsion. The paper then turns to discuss the legal nature of diplomatic assurances, proceeding to address various possibilities for legal value as treaties and as binding unilateral statements. This paper will not examine the legal value of diplomatic assurances solely under customary international law other than the way in which customary international law might further refine the treaty definition. In order to identify whether any assurances are contained in legal acts, this study identifies a pool of relevant assurances and qualitatively analyzes whether any of those are contained in treaties or binding unilateral statements. To the author’s best knowledge, this study is the first large-scale, qualitative qualitative analysis of assurances as a group of instruments that accounts for their heterogenous nature. It is also the first study to identify the indicators of whether an instrument is a treaty or promise.

Keywords: diplomatic assurances, deportation, extradition, expulsion, non-refoulement, torture, persecution, death penalty, human rights, memorandum of understanding, promises, secret, monitoring, compliance, enforcement

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Authors: Yushinta Fujaya, Andi Ivo Asphama, Andi Parenrengi, Andi Tenriulo

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Blue Swimming crab (Portunus pelagicus) is an important commercial species throughout the subtropical waters and as such constitutes part of the fisheries resources. Data are lacking on the morphological variations of selected fast-growing crabs reared in a pond. This study aimed to analyze the morphological and molecular character of a selected fast-growing crab reared in ponds in South of Sulawesi. The crab seeds were obtained from local fish-trap and hatchery. A study on the growth was carried out in the population of crabs. The dimensions analyzed were carapace width (CW) measured after 3 months of grow out. Morphological character states were examined based on the pattern of spots on the carapace. Molecular analysis was performed using RAPD (Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA). Genetic distance was analysed using TFPGA (Tools for Population Genetic Analyses) version 1.3. The results showed that there were variations in the growth of crabs. These crabs clustered morphologically into three quite distinct groups. The crab with white spots irregularly spread over its carapace was the largest size while the crab with large white spots scattered over the carapace was the smaller size (3%). The crab with small white spots scattered over the carapace was the smallest size found in this study. Molecular analysis showed that there are morphologically and genetically different between groups of crabs. Genetic distances among crabs ranged from 0.1527 to 0.5856. Thus, this study provides information the use of white spots pattern over carapace as indicators to identify the type of blue swimming crabs.

Keywords: crab, portunus pelagicus, morphology, RAPD, Carapace

Procedia PDF Downloads 539

Authors: Nadir Atayev, Mehman Hasanov

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Future spacecraft will require a structural change in the way data is transmitted due to the increase in the volume of data required for space communication. Current radio frequency communication systems are already facing a bottleneck in the volume of data sent to the ground segment due to their technological and regulatory characteristics. To overcome these issues, free space optics communication plays an important role in the integrated terrestrial space network due to its advantages such as significantly improved data rate compared to traditional RF technology, low cost, improved security, and inter-satellite free space communication, as well as uses a laser beam, which is an optical signal carrier to establish satellite-ground & ground-to-satellite links. In this approach, there is a need for high-speed and energy-efficient systems as a base platform for sending high-volume video & audio data. Nano Satellite and its branch CubeSat platforms have more technical functionality than large satellites, wheres cover an important part of the space sector, with their Low-Earth-Orbit application area with low-cost design and technical functionality for building networks using different communication topologies. Along the research theme developed in this regard, the output parameter indicators for the FSO of the optical communication transceiver subsystem on the existing CubeSat platforms, and in the direction of improving the mentioned parameters of this communication methodology, 3D optical switch and laser beam controlled optical transponder with 2U CubeSat structural subsystems and application in the Low Earth Orbit satellite network topology, as well as its functional performance and structural parameters, has been studied accordingly.

Keywords: cubesat, free space optics, nano satellite, optical laser communication.

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Authors: Arawati Agus, Rahmah Ismail

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An effective training has been increasingly recognized as critical factors in enhancing the skills and knowledge of employee or personnel in the organization. More and more manufacturing companies in Malaysia are increasingly incorporating training as an important element in supply chain management (SCM) to improve their employee skills and knowledge and ultimately organizational performances. In order to understand the connection of training in SCM and the performance of an organization, this paper considers of many arguments from various research papers. This paper presents the findings of a research which examines the relationship between training in SCM, personnel differentiation and business performance of manufacturing companies in Malaysia. The study measures perception of senior management regarding the incorporation of training in SCM and the level of personnel differentiation and business performance measurements in their companies. The associations between training in SCM, personnel differentiation and business performance dimensions are analyzed through methods such as Pearson’s correlations and Smart partial least squares (smart PLS) using 126 respondents’ data. The correlation results demonstrate that training in SCM has significant correlations with personnel differentiation determinants (comprises of variables namely employee differentiation and service differentiation). The findings also suggest that training in SCM has significant correlations with business performance determinants (comprises of indicators, namely market share, profitability, ROA and ROS). Specifically, both personnel differentiation and business performance have high correlations with training in SCM, namely ‘Employee training on production skills’, ‘On the job production employee training’ and ‘Management training on supply chain effectiveness’ and ‘Employee training on supply chain technologies’. The smart PLS result also reveals that training in SCM exhibits significant impact on both personnel differentiation (directly) and business performance (indirectly mediated by personnel differentiation). The findings of the study provide a demonstration of the importance of training in SCM in enhancing competitive performances in Malaysian manufacturing companies.

Keywords: training in SCM, personnel differentiation, business performance, Pearson’s correlation, Smart PLS

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: N. Alias, W. Z. W. Muhammad, M. N. M. Ibrahim, M. Mohamed, H. F. S. Saipol, U. N. Z. Ariffin, N. A. Zakaria, M. S. Z. Suardi

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This paper presents the performance comparison of some computation software for solving the boundary element method (BEM). BEM formulation is the numerical technique and high potential for solving the advance mathematical modeling to predict the production of oil well in arbitrarily shaped based on multiple leases reservoir. The limitation of data validation for ensuring that a program meets the accuracy of the mathematical modeling is considered as the research motivation of this paper. Thus, based on this limitation, there are three steps involved to validate the accuracy of the oil production simulation process. In the first step, identify the mathematical modeling based on partial differential equation (PDE) with Poisson-elliptic type to perform the BEM discretization. In the second step, implement the simulation of the 2D BEM discretization using COMSOL Multiphysic and MATLAB programming languages. In the last step, analyze the numerical performance indicators for both programming languages by using the validation of Fortran programming. The performance comparisons of numerical analysis are investigated in terms of percentage error, comparison graph and 2D visualization of pressure on oil production of multiple leases reservoir. According to the performance comparison, the structured programming in Fortran programming is the alternative software for implementing the accurate numerical simulation of BEM. As a conclusion, high-level language for numerical computation and numerical performance evaluation are satisfied to prove that Fortran is well suited for capturing the visualization of the production of oil well in arbitrarily shaped.

Keywords: performance comparison, 2D visualization, COMSOL multiphysic, MATLAB, Fortran, modelling and simulation, boundary element method, reservoir pressure

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Authors: Yizhi Zhang, Xiaozan Wang, Mingming Guo, Pengpeng Li

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Introduction: The purpose of this study is to examine the effectiveness of after-school football training in improving the physical fitness of primary school students, so as to provide corresponding suggestions for carrying out after-school football training in primary schools. Methods: A total of 72 students from the experimental primary school of Mouping district, Yantai city, Shandong province, participated in this experiment. The experiment was conducted for two semesters. During the experiment period, the experimental group conducted one-hour football training after school from Monday to Thursday afternoon every week, and two hours of football training on Saturday morning every week. The control group conducted sports teaching and extracurricular activities as usual without other intervention. Before and after the experiment, both the experimental group and the control group underwent physical fitness tests according to the physical fitness test standards of Chinese students, including lung capacity, 50-meter run, one-minute skipping rope, sitting forward flexor, and one-minute sit-ups. The test results were all converted to the 100-point system according to the scoring standards. Results: (1) Before the experiment, there was no significant difference between the experimental group and the control group in various physical fitness indicators (p > 0.05). (2) After the experiment, the lung capacity score (T = 3.108, p < 0.05), the 50-meter run score (T = 6.593, p < 0.05), the skipping score (T = 9.227, p < 0.05), the sitting forward flexor score (T = 3.742, p < 0.05), and the sit-up score (T = 5.210, p < 0.05) of the experimental group were significantly higher than that of the control group. Conclusion: This study shows that the physical fitness of primary school students can be improved by football training in their spare time. It is suggested to carry out after-school football training activities in primary schools so as to effectively improve the physical fitness of pupils.

Keywords: after-school football training, physical fitness, primary school students, school sports

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Jose Ramon Sanabria Navarro, Yahilina Silveira Perez

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The Pan American Games are one of the best regional sports integration events for the Americas, thousands of athletes from different countries are integrated based on obtaining satisfactory sports results and bringing the glory of the national identity of the sport to their country. There are countries that despite the small number of inhabitants have obtained very satisfactory results such as Cuba. Objective: To analyze the impact of Cuba's sports results in the Pan American Games. The methodology was based on the postulates of the materialist dialectic since the investigated reality was studied from historicity, systematicity and in its systemic character. The population and sample consisted of 41 countries of the American continent, and the 15 events carried out to date were analyzed. The impact of Cuba is very relevant because it is the country that has the second place by country in terms of number of medals, is among the first in terms of medals per inhabitants and in general sense of all the indicators treated assumes the fourth place integral. What is the current status of Cuba's sports results in Pan American Games? Having as a general objective, analyze the impact of Cuba's sports results in the Pan American Games. The hypotheses that will lead this research have the following methodological and interaction order: H1: Cuba's performance in Pan American Sports Games positively impacts the amount of medals obtained. H2: The amount of medals from Cuba in Pan American Sports Games positively impacts the general podium for countries of these regional events. H3: The amount of medals obtained by Cuba in Pan American Sports Games positively impacts the number of inhabitants. H4: The amount of medals obtained by Cuba positively impacts the overall result of the countries. H5: Cuba's performance in the Panamerican Sports Games positively impacts the overall results of these regional events. In general, it is possible to demonstrate the impact of Cuba's sports performance in Pan American Games and the organizational sports structure that has allowed the country to obtain them is evidenced.

Keywords: Cuba, history of sport, sports games, regional events, sport

Procedia PDF Downloads 130