Search results for: tree canopy cover
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2151

Search results for: tree canopy cover

201 Artificial Intelligence Models for Detecting Spatiotemporal Crop Water Stress in Automating Irrigation Scheduling: A Review

Authors: Elham Koohi, Silvio Jose Gumiere, Hossein Bonakdari, Saeid Homayouni

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Water used in agricultural crops can be managed by irrigation scheduling based on soil moisture levels and plant water stress thresholds. Automated irrigation scheduling limits crop physiological damage and yield reduction. Knowledge of crop water stress monitoring approaches can be effective in optimizing the use of agricultural water. Understanding the physiological mechanisms of crop responding and adapting to water deficit ensures sustainable agricultural management and food supply. This aim could be achieved by analyzing and diagnosing crop characteristics and their interlinkage with the surrounding environment. Assessments of plant functional types (e.g., leaf area and structure, tree height, rate of evapotranspiration, rate of photosynthesis), controlling changes, and irrigated areas mapping. Calculating thresholds of soil water content parameters, crop water use efficiency, and Nitrogen status make irrigation scheduling decisions more accurate by preventing water limitations between irrigations. Combining Remote Sensing (RS), the Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Machine Learning Algorithms (MLAs) can improve measurement accuracies and automate irrigation scheduling. This paper is a review structured by surveying about 100 recent research studies to analyze varied approaches in terms of providing high spatial and temporal resolution mapping, sensor-based Variable Rate Application (VRA) mapping, the relation between spectral and thermal reflectance and different features of crop and soil. The other objective is to assess RS indices formed by choosing specific reflectance bands and identifying the correct spectral band to optimize classification techniques and analyze Proximal Optical Sensors (POSs) to control changes. The innovation of this paper can be defined as categorizing evaluation methodologies of precision irrigation (applying the right practice, at the right place, at the right time, with the right quantity) controlled by soil moisture levels and sensitiveness of crops to water stress, into pre-processing, processing (retrieval algorithms), and post-processing parts. Then, the main idea of this research is to analyze the error reasons and/or values in employing different approaches in three proposed parts reported by recent studies. Additionally, as an overview conclusion tried to decompose different approaches to optimizing indices, calibration methods for the sensors, thresholding and prediction models prone to errors, and improvements in classification accuracy for mapping changes.

Keywords: agricultural crops, crop water stress detection, irrigation scheduling, precision agriculture, remote sensing

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200 Community Perception towards the Major Drivers for Deforestation and Land Degradation of Choke Afro-alpine and Sub-afro alpine Ecosystem, Northwest Ethiopia

Authors: Zelalem Teshager

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The Choke Mountains have several endangered and endemic wildlife species and provide important ecosystem services. Despite their environmental importance, the Choke Mountains are found in dangerous conditions. This raised the need for an evaluation of the community's perception of deforestation and its major drivers and suggested possible solutions in the Choke Mountains of northwestern Ethiopia. For this purpose, household surveys, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions were used. A total sample of 102 informants was used for this survey. A purposive sampling technique was applied to select the participants for in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. Both qualitative and quantitative data analyses were used. Computation of descriptive statistics such as mean, percentages, frequency, tables, figures, and graphs was applied to organize, analyze, and interpret the study. This study assessed smallholder agricultural land expansion, Fuel wood collection, population growth; encroachment, free grazing, high demand of construction wood, unplanned resettlement, unemployment, border conflict, lack of a strong forest protecting system, and drought were the serious causes of forest depletion reported by local communities. Loss of land productivity, Soil erosion, soil fertility decline, increasing wind velocity, rising temperature, and frequency of drought were the most perceived impacts of deforestation. Most of the farmers have a holistic understanding of forest cover change. Strengthening forest protection, improving soil and water conservation, enrichment planting, awareness creation, payment for ecosystem services, and zero grazing campaigns were mentioned as possible solutions to the current state of deforestation. Applications of Intervention measures, such as animal fattening, beekeeping, and fruit production can contribute to decreasing the deforestation causes and improve communities’ livelihood. In addition, concerted efforts of conservation will ensure that the forests’ ecosystems contribute to increased ecosystem services. The major drivers of deforestation should be addressed with government intervention to change dependency on forest resources, income sources of the people, and institutional set-up of the forestry sector. Overall, further reduction in anthropogenic pressure is urgent and crucial for the recovery of the afro-alpine vegetation and the interrelated endangered wildlife in the Choke Mountains.

Keywords: choke afro-alpine, deforestation, drivers, intervention measures, perceptions

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199 Cross-Sectoral Energy Demand Prediction for Germany with a 100% Renewable Energy Production in 2050

Authors: Ali Hashemifarzad, Jens Zum Hingst

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The structure of the world’s energy systems has changed significantly over the past years. One of the most important challenges in the 21st century in Germany (and also worldwide) is the energy transition. This transition aims to comply with the recent international climate agreements from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to ensure sustainable energy supply with minimal use of fossil fuels. Germany aims for complete decarbonization of the energy sector by 2050 according to the federal climate protection plan. One of the stipulations of the Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017 for the expansion of energy production from renewable sources in Germany is that they cover at least 80% of the electricity requirement in 2050; The Gross end energy consumption is targeted for at least 60%. This means that by 2050, the energy supply system would have to be almost completely converted to renewable energy. An essential basis for the development of such a sustainable energy supply from 100% renewable energies is to predict the energy requirement by 2050. This study presents two scenarios for the final energy demand in Germany in 2050. In the first scenario, the targets for energy efficiency increase and demand reduction are set very ambitiously. To build a comparison basis, the second scenario provides results with less ambitious assumptions. For this purpose, first, the relevant framework conditions (following CUTEC 2016) were examined, such as the predicted population development and economic growth, which were in the past a significant driver for the increase in energy demand. Also, the potential for energy demand reduction and efficiency increase (on the demand side) was investigated. In particular, current and future technological developments in energy consumption sectors and possible options for energy substitution (namely the electrification rate in the transport sector and the building renovation rate) were included. Here, in addition to the traditional electricity sector, the areas of heat, and fuel-based consumptions in different sectors such as households, commercial, industrial and transport are taken into account, supporting the idea that for a 100% supply from renewable energies, the areas currently based on (fossil) fuels must be almost completely be electricity-based by 2050. The results show that in the very ambitious scenario a final energy demand of 1,362 TWh/a is required, which is composed of 818 TWh/a electricity, 229 TWh/a ambient heat for electric heat pumps and approx. 315 TWh/a non-electric energy (raw materials for non-electrifiable processes). In the less ambitious scenario, in which the targets are not fully achieved by 2050, the final energy demand will need a higher electricity part of almost 1,138 TWh/a (from the total: 1,682 TWh/a). It has also been estimated that 50% of the electricity revenue must be saved to compensate for fluctuations in the daily and annual flows. Due to conversion and storage losses (about 50%), this would mean that the electricity requirement for the very ambitious scenario would increase to 1,227 TWh / a.

Keywords: energy demand, energy transition, German Energiewende, 100% renewable energy production

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198 Results and Insights from a Developmental Psychology Study on the Presentation of Juvenility in Punk Fanzines

Authors: Marc Dietrich

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Youth cultures like Punk as much as media relevant to the specific scenes associated with them offer ample opportunity for young people or juvenile adults to construct their personal identities. However, developmental psychology has largely neglected such identity construction processes during the last decades. Such was not always the case: Early developmental psychologists intensely studied youth cultures and their meaningful objects and media in the early 20th century but lost interest when cultural studies and the social sciences occupied the field after World War II. Our project Constructions of Juvenility and Generation(ality), funded by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research, reintegrates the study of youth cultures and their meaningful objects and media in a developmental psychology perspective. We present an empirical study of the ways in which youth, juvenility, and generation (ality) are constructed and negotiated in underground media like punk fanzines (a portmanteau of fan and magazine), including both semantic and aesthetic aspects of these construction processes within punk culture. The fanzine sample was accessed by the theoretical sampling strategy typical for GTM studies. Acknowledging fanzines as artful self-produced media by scene members for scene members, we conceptualize them as authentic documents of scene norms and values. Drawing on an analysis of both text and (cover) images in Punk fanzines published in Germany (and within a sample dating from 1981 until 2015) using a novel Visual Grounded Theory approach, we found that: a) Juvenility is a highly contested concept in punk culture. Its semantic quality and valuation varies with the perspectives present within the culture (e.g. embryo punks versus older punks); b) Juvenility is constructed as having energy and being socio-critical that does not depend on biological age; c) Juvenility is regarded not an ideal per se in German Punk culture; Punk culture constructs old age in a largely positive way (e.g., as marker of being real and a historical innovator); d) Juvenility is constructed as a habit that should be kept for life as it is constantly adapted to individual biographical trajectories like specific job situations or having a family. Consequently, identity negotiation as documented in the zines attempts to balance subculturally driven perspectives on life and society with the pragmatic requirements of a bourgeois life. The proposed paper will present the main results of this large-scale study of punk fanzines and show how developmental psychology perspectives as represented in the novel methodology applied in it can advance the study of youth cultures.

Keywords: construction of juvenility, developmental psychology, visual GTM, youth culture, fanzines

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197 Fire Risk Information Harmonization for Transboundary Fire Events between Portugal and Spain

Authors: Domingos Viegas, Miguel Almeida, Carmen Rocha, Ilda Novo, Yolanda Luna

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Forest fires along the more than 1200km of the Spanish-Portuguese border are more and more frequent, currently achieving around 2000 fire events per year. Some of these events develop to large international wildfire requiring concerted operations based on shared information between the two countries. The fire event of Valencia de Alcantara (2003) causing several fatalities and more than 13000ha burnt, is a reference example of these international events. Currently, Portugal and Spain have a specific cross-border cooperation protocol on wildfires response for a strip of about 30km (15 km for each side). It is recognized by public authorities the successfulness of this collaboration however it is also assumed that this cooperation should include more functionalities such as the development of a common risk information system for transboundary fire events. Since Portuguese and Spanish authorities use different approaches to determine the fire risk indexes inputs and different methodologies to assess the fire risk, sometimes the conjoint firefighting operations are jeopardized since the information is not harmonized and the understanding of the situation by the civil protection agents from both countries is not unique. Thus, a methodology aiming the harmonization of the fire risk calculation and perception by Portuguese and Spanish Civil protection authorities is hereby presented. The final results are presented as well. The fire risk index used in this work is the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which is based on meteorological data. The FWI is limited on its application as it does not take into account other important factors with great effect on the fire appearance and development. The combination of these factors is very complex since, besides the meteorology, it addresses several parameters of different topics, namely: sociology, topography, vegetation and soil cover. Therefore, the meaning of FWI values is different from region to region, according the specific characteristics of each region. In this work, a methodology for FWI calibration based on the number of fire occurrences and on the burnt area in the transboundary regions of Portugal and Spain, in order to assess the fire risk based on calibrated FWI values, is proposed. As previously mentioned, the cooperative firefighting operations require a common perception of the information shared. Therefore, a common classification of the fire risk for the fire events occurred in the transboundary strip is proposed with the objective of harmonizing this type of information. This work is integrated in the ECHO project SpitFire - Spanish-Portuguese Meteorological Information System for Transboundary Operations in Forest Fires, which aims the development of a web platform for the sharing of information and supporting decision tools to be used in international fire events involving Portugal and Spain.

Keywords: data harmonization, FWI, international collaboration, transboundary wildfires

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196 Health Care Delivery Services at Subdistrict Health Promoting Hospitals on The Islands in Thailand

Authors: Tassana Boontong, Vilaivan Thongcharoen, Orapan Thosingha, Suphamon Chansakul, Anorut Jenwitheesuk, Chanin Chakkrapopyodhin, Isara Phiwchai, Mattika Chaichan, Rungnapha Khiewchaum

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According to Thailand health policy, subdistrict health promoting hospitals (SHPHs) serve as forefront facilities for inclusive health care service. Those services include health promotion, disease prevention, primary medical care and rehabilitation. However, SHPHs residing in some distant area, such as SHPHs residing on the islands, would deliver different services relevant to health needs of the local people and the tourists. This research aimed to study health care delivery services at SHPHs on the islands in Thailand. Data were collected using questionnaires. The result revealed that in Thailand, there are 58 SHPHs on the islands. During data collection process, the researchers were not allowed to collect data in 5 SHPHs in the southern part due to Covid-19 pandemic. The report is based on 53 SHPHs on the islands. Numbers of health care personnel were 201, 72.14 % were female, with the ages ranged from 22 to 60 years (mean = 35.56 years). About 53% were community health personnel, while 26.08% were professional nurses. In regard to work experiences, the range of year varied from less than 1 year to 30 years, with the mean of 8.36 years. The majority of their responsibilities focused on providing primary medical care (86.34%), caring of people with chronic illnesses (85.30%) and providing medical care procedures for patients with chronic illnesses at home (84.36%). Nurses were main health care personnel in performing primary medical care. Due to difficulty transportation from the islands to the mainland, nurses had to provide prompt emergency medical care while the patients arrived with emergency and critical illnesses such as severe head trauma, stroke or coronary artery disease. Although some medical procedures were complex and not covered by nursing and midwifery license, they decided to protect patients from life- threatening conditions and make them stable before transportation. In SHPHs, the workload exceeded manpower, health care personnel had to work overtime almost every day. In the famous tourist islands, health care personnel had to carry 3-4 folds of their workload during the holidays because of the large crowds of foreign and Thai tourists. It is recommended that SHPHs on the islands should scale up the level of services to cover advanced medical care. Health care personnel, in particular, professional nurses, should be equipped with emergency and critical care skills. The expected outcomes of the services should emphasize on rescuing patients with emergency and life-threatening illnesses and providing comprehensive care for people living on or visiting the islands.

Keywords: distant area, islands, sub district health promoting hospital, heath care services, Thailand

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195 A Comparative Semantic Network Study between Chinese and Western Festivals

Authors: Jianwei Qian, Rob Law

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With the expansion of globalization and the increment of market competition, the festival, especially the traditional one, has demonstrated its vitality under the new context. As a new tourist attraction, festivals play a critically important role in promoting the tourism economy, because the organization of a festival can engage more tourists, generate more revenues and win a wider media concern. However, in the current stage of China, traditional festivals as a way to disseminate national culture are undergoing the challenge of foreign festivals and the related culture. Different from those special events created solely for developing economy, traditional festivals have their own culture and connotation. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a study on not only protecting the tradition, but promoting its development as well. This study conducts a comparative study of the development of China’s Valentine’s Day and Western Valentine’s Day under the Chinese context and centers on newspaper reports in China from 2000 to 2016. Based on the literature, two main research focuses can be established: one is concerned about the festival’s impact and the other is about tourists’ motivation to engage in a festival. Newspaper reports serve as the research discourse and can help cover the two focal points. With the assistance of content mining techniques, semantic networks for both Days are constructed separately to help depict the status quo of these two festivals in China. Based on the networks, two models are established to show the key component system of traditional festivals in the hope of perfecting the positive role festival tourism plays in the promotion of economy and culture. According to the semantic networks, newspaper reports on both festivals have similarities and differences. The difference is mainly reflected in its cultural connotation, because westerners and Chinese may show their love in different ways. Nevertheless, they share more common points in terms of economy, tourism, and society. They also have a similar living environment and stakeholders. Thus, they can be promoted together to revitalize some traditions in China. Three strategies are proposed to realize the aforementioned aim. Firstly, localize international festivals to suit the Chinese context to make it function better. Secondly, facilitate the internationalization process of traditional Chinese festivals to receive more recognition worldwide. Finally, allow traditional festivals to compete with foreign ones to help them learn from each other and elucidate the development of other festivals. It is believed that if all these can be realized, not only the traditional Chinese festivals can obtain a more promising future, but foreign ones are the same as well. Accordingly, the paper can contribute to the theoretical construction of festival images by the presentation of the semantic network. Meanwhile, the identified features and issues of festivals from two different cultures can enlighten the organization and marketing of festivals as a vital tourism activity. In the long run, the study can enhance the festival as a key attraction to keep the sustainable development of both the economy and the society.

Keywords: Chinese context, comparative study, festival tourism, semantic network analysis, valentine’s day

Procedia PDF Downloads 234
194 Cytochrome B Diversity and Phylogeny of Egyptian Sheep Breeds

Authors: Othman E. Othman, Agnés Germot, Daniel Petit, Abderrahman Maftah

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Threats to the biodiversity are increasing due to the loss of genetic diversity within the species utilized in agriculture. Due to the progressive substitution of the less productive, locally adapted and native breeds by highly productive breeds, the number of threatened breeds is increased. In these conditions, it is more strategically important than ever to preserve as much the farm animal diversity as possible, to ensure a prompt and proper response to the needs of future generations. Mitochondrial (mtDNA) sequencing has been used to explain the origins of many modern domestic livestock species. Studies based on sequencing of sheep mitochondrial DNA showed that there are five maternal lineages in the world for domestic sheep breeds; A, B, C, D and E. Because of the eastern location of Egypt in the Mediterranean basin and the presence of fat-tailed sheep breeds- character quite common in Turkey and Syria- where genotypes that seem quite primitive, the phylogenetic studies of Egyptian sheep breeds become particularly attractive. We aimed in this work to clarify the genetic affinities, biodiversity and phylogeny of five Egyptian sheep breeds using cytochrome B sequencing. Blood samples were collected from 63 animals belonging to the five tested breeds; Barki, Rahmani, Ossimi, Saidi and Sohagi. The total DNA was extracted and the specific primer allowed the conventional PCR amplification of the cytochrome B region of mtDNA (approximately 1272 bp). PCR amplified products were purified and sequenced. The alignment of Sixty-three samples was done using BioEdit software. DnaSP 5.00 software was used to identify the sequence variation and polymorphic sites in the aligned sequences. The result showed that the presence of 34 polymorphic sites leading to the formation of 18 haplotypes. The haplotype diversity in five tested breeds ranged from 0.676 in Rahmani breed to 0.894 in Sohagi breed. The genetic distances (D) and the average number of pairwise differences (Dxy) between breeds were estimated. The lowest distance was observed between Rahmani and Saidi (D: 1.674 and Dxy: 0.00150) while the highest distance was observed between Ossimi and Sohagi (D: 5.233 and Dxy: 0.00475). Neighbour-joining (Phylogeny) tree was constructed using Mega 5.0 software. The sequences of the 63 analyzed samples were aligned with references sequences of different haplogroups. The phylogeny result showed the presence of three haplogroups (HapA, HapB and HapC) in the 63 examined samples. The other two haplogroups described in literature (HapD and HapE) were not found. The result showed that 50 out of 63 tested animals cluster with haplogroup B (79.37%) whereas 7 tested animals cluster with haplogroup A (11.11%) and 6 animals cluster with haplogroup C (9.52%). In conclusion, the phylogenetic reconstructions showed that the majority of Egyptian sheep breeds belonging to haplogroup B which is the dominant haplogroup in Eastern Mediterranean countries like Syria and Turkey. Some individuals are belonging to haplogroups A and C, suggesting that the crosses were done with other breeds for characteristic selection for growth and wool quality.

Keywords: cytochrome B, diversity, phylogheny, Egyptian sheep breeds

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193 The Trumping of Science: Exploratory Study into Discrepancy between Politician and Scientist Sources in American Covid-19 News Coverage

Authors: Wafa Unus

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Science journalism has been vanishing from America’s national newspapers for decades. Reportage on scientific topics is limited to only a handful of newspapers and of those, few employ dedicated science journalists to cover stories that require this specialized expertise. News organizations' lack of readiness to convey complex scientific concepts to a mass populace becomes particularly problematic when events like the Covid-19 pandemic occur. The lack of coverage of Covid-19 prior to its onset in the United States, suggests something more troubling - that the deprioritization of reporting on hard science as an educational tool in favor of political frames of coverage, places dangerous blinders on the American public. This research looks at the disparity between voices of health and science experts in news articles and the voices of political figures, in order to better understand the approach of American newspapers in conveying expert opinion on Covid-19. A content analysis of 300 articles on Covid-19 by major newspapers in the United States between January 1st, 2020 and April 30th, 2020 illuminates this investigation. The Boston Globe, the New York Times, and the Los Angeles Times are included in the content analysis. Initial findings reveal a significant disparity in the number of articles that mention Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute Allergy and Infectious Disease, and the number that make reference to political figures. Covid-related articles in the New York Times that focused on health topics (as opposed to economic or social issues) contained the voices of 54 different politicians who were mentioned a total of 608 times. Only five members of the scientific community were mentioned a total of 24 times (out of 674 articles). In the Boston Globe, 36 different politicians were mentioned a total of 147 times, and only two members of the scientific community, one being Anthony Fauci, were mentioned a total of nine times (out of 423 articles). In the Los Angeles Times, 52 different politicians were mentioned a total of 600 times, and only six members of the scientific community were included and were mentioned a total of 82 times with Fauci being mentioned 48 times (out of 851 articles). Results provide a better understanding of the frames in which American journalists in Covid hotspots conveyed information of expert analysis on Covid-19 during one of the most pressing news events of the century. Ultimately, the objective of this study is to utilize the exploratory data to evaluate the nature, extent and impact of Covid-19 reporting in the context of trustworthiness and scientific expertise. Secondarily, this data will illuminate the degree to which Covid-19 reporting focused on politics over science.

Keywords: science reporting, science journalism, covid, misinformation, news

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192 Experimental and Numerical Investigation of Fracture Behavior of Foamed Concrete Based on Three-Point Bending Test of Beams with Initial Notch

Authors: M. Kozłowski, M. Kadela

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Foamed concrete is known for its low self-weight and excellent thermal and acoustic properties. For many years, it has been used worldwide for insulation to foundations and roof tiles, as backfill to retaining walls, sound insulation, etc. However, in the last years it has become a promising material also for structural purposes e.g. for stabilization of weak soils. Due to favorable properties of foamed concrete, many interests and studies were involved to analyze its strength, mechanical, thermal and acoustic properties. However, these studies do not cover the investigation of fracture energy which is the core factor governing the damage and fracture mechanisms. Only limited number of publications can be found in literature. The paper presents the results of experimental investigation and numerical campaign of foamed concrete based on three-point bending test of beams with initial notch. First part of the paper presents the results of a series of static loading tests performed to investigate the fracture properties of foamed concrete of varying density. Beam specimens with dimensions of 100×100×840 mm with a central notch were tested in three-point bending. Subsequently, remaining halves of the specimens with dimensions of 100×100×420 mm were tested again as un-notched beams in the same set-up with reduced distance between supports. The tests were performed in a hydraulic displacement controlled testing machine with a load capacity of 5 kN. Apart from measuring the loading and mid-span displacement, a crack mouth opening displacement (CMOD) was monitored. Based on the load – displacement curves of notched beams the values of fracture energy and tensile stress at failure were calculated. The flexural tensile strength was obtained on un-notched beams with dimensions of 100×100×420 mm. Moreover, cube specimens 150×150×150 mm were tested in compression to determine the compressive strength. Second part of the paper deals with numerical investigation of the fracture behavior of beams with initial notch presented in the first part of the paper. Extended Finite Element Method (XFEM) was used to simulate and analyze the damage and fracture process. The influence of meshing and variation of mechanical properties on results was investigated. Numerical models simulate correctly the behavior of beams observed during three-point bending. The numerical results show that XFEM can be used to simulate different fracture toughness of foamed concrete and fracture types. Using the XFEM and computer simulation technology allow for reliable approximation of load–bearing capacity and damage mechanisms of beams made of foamed concrete, which provides some foundations for realistic structural applications.

Keywords: foamed concrete, fracture energy, three-point bending, XFEM

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191 Determinants of Never Users of Contraception-Results from Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2012-13

Authors: Arsalan Jabbar, Wajiha Javed, Nelofer Mehboob, Zahid Memon

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Introduction: There are multiple social, individual and cultural factors that influence an individual’s decision to adopt family planning methods especially among non-users in patriarchal societies like Pakistan.Non-users, if targeted efficiently, can contribute significantly to country’s CPR. A research study showed that non-users if convinced to adopt lactational amenorrhea method can shift to long-term methods in future. Research shows that if non-users are targeted efficiently a 59% reduction in unintended pregnancies in Saharan Africa and South-Central and South-East Asia is anticipated. Methods: We did secondary data analysis on Pakistan Demographic Heath Survey (2012-13) dataset. Use of contraception (never-use/ever-use) was the outcome variable. At univariate level Chi-square/Fisher Exact test was used to assess relationship of baseline covariates with contraception use. Then variables to be incorporated in the model were checked for multi-collinearity, confounding, and interaction. Then binary logistic regression (with an urban-rural stratification) was done to find the relationship between contraception use and baseline demographic and social variables. Results: The multivariate analyses of the study showed that younger women (≤ 29 years) were more prone to be never users as compared to those who were > 30 years and this trend was seen in urban areas (AOR 1.92, CI 1.453-2.536) as well as rural areas (AOR 1.809, CI 1.421-2.303). While looking at regional variation, women from urban Sindh (AOR 1.548, CI 1.142-2.099) and urban Balochistan (AOR 2.403, CI 1.504-3.839) had more never users as compared to other urban regions. Women in the rich wealth quintile were more never users and this was seen both in urban and rural localities (urban (AOR 1.106 CI .753-1.624); rural areas (AOR 1.162, CI .887-1.524)) even though these were not statistically significant. Women idealizing more children(> 4) are more never users as compared to those idealizing less children in both urban (AOR 1.854, CI 1.275-2.697) and rural areas (AOR 2.101, CI 1.514-2.916). Women who never lost a pregnancy were more inclined to be non-users in rural areas (AOR 1.394, CI 1.127-1.723) .Women familiar with only traditional or no method had more never users in rural areas (AOR 1.717, CI 1.127-1.723) but in urban areas it wasn’t significant. Women unaware of Lady Health Worker’s presence in their area were more never users especially in rural areas (AOR 1.276, CI 1.014-1.607). Women who did not visit any care provider were more never users (urban (AOR 11.738, CI 9.112-15.121) rural areas (AOR 7.832, CI 6.243-9.826)). Discussion/Conclusion: This study concluded that government, policy makers and private sector family planning programs should focus on the untapped pool of never users (younger women from underserved provinces, in higher wealth quintiles, who desire more children.). We need to make sure to cover catchment areas where there are less LHWs and less providers as ignorance to modern methods and never been visited by an LHW are important determinants of never use. This all is in sync with previous literate from similar developing countries.

Keywords: contraception, demographic and health survey, family planning, never users

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190 Forest Degradation and Implications for Rural Livelihood in Kaimur Reserve Forest of Bihar, India

Authors: Shashi Bhushan, Sucharita Sen

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In India, forest and people are inextricably linked since millions of people live adjacent to or within protected areas and harvest forest products. Indian forest has their own legacy to sustain by its own climatic nature with several social, economic and cultural activities. People surrounding forest areas are not only dependent on this resource for their livelihoods but also for the other source, like religious ceremonies, social customs and herbal medicines, which are determined by the forest like agricultural land, groundwater level, and soil fertility. The assumption that fuelwood and fodder extraction, which is the part of local livelihood leads to deforestation, has so far been the dominant mainstream views in deforestation discourses. Given the occupational division across social groups in Kaimur reserve forest, the differential nature of dependence of forest resources is important to understand. This paper attempts to assess the nature of dependence and impact of forest degradation on rural households across various social groups. Also, an additional element that is added to the enquiry is the way degradation of forests leading to scarcity of forest-based resources impacts the patterns of dependence across various social groups. Change in forest area calculated through land use land cover analysis using remote sensing technique and examination of different economic activities carried out by the households that are forest-based was collected by primary survey in Kaimur reserve forest of state of Bihar in India. The general finding indicates that the Scheduled Tribe and Scheduled Caste communities, the most socially and economically deprived sections of the rural society are involved in a significant way in collection of fuelwood, fodder, and fruits, both for self-consumption and sale in the market while other groups of society uses fuelwood, fruit, and fodder for self-use only. Depending on the local forest resources for fuelwood consumption was the primary need for all social groups due to easy accessibility and lack of alternative energy source. In last four decades, degradation of forest made a direct impact on rural community mediated through the socio-economic structure, resulting in a shift from forest-based occupations to cultivation and manual labour in agricultural and non-agricultural activities. Thus there is a need to review the policies with respect to the ‘community forest management’ since this study clearly throws up the fact that engagement with and dependence on forest resources is socially differentiated. Thus tying the degree of dependence and forest management becomes extremely important from the view of ‘sustainable’ forest resource management. The statization of forest resources also has to keep in view the intrinsic way in which the forest-dependent population interacts with the forest.

Keywords: forest degradation, livelihood, social groups, tribal community

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189 Assessing Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) Challenges in Young Children in Dubai: A Qualitative Study, 2016

Authors: Kadhim Alabady

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Background: Autism poses a particularly large public health challenge and an inspiring lifelong challenge for many families; it is a lifelong challenge of a different kind. Purpose: Therefore, it is important to understand what the key challenges are and how to improve the lives of children who are affected with autism in Dubai. Method: In order to carry out this research we have used a qualitative methodology. We performed structured in–depth interviews and focus groups with mental health professionals working at: Al Jalila hospital (AJH), Dubai Autism Centre (DAC), Dubai Rehabilitation Centre for Disabilities, Latifa hospital, Private Sector Healthcare (PSH). In addition to that, we conducted quantitative approach to estimate ASD prevalence or incidence data due to lack of registry. ASD estimates are based on research from national and international documents. This approach was applied to increase the validity of the findings by using a variety of data collection techniques in order to explore issues that might not be highlighted through one method alone. Key findings: Autism is the most common of the Pervasive Developmental Disorders. Dubai Autism Center estimates it affects 1 in 146 births (0.68%). If we apply these estimates to the total number of births in Dubai for 2014, it is predicted there would be approximately 199 children (of which 58 were Nationals and 141 were Non–Nationals) suffering from autism at some stage. 16.4% of children (through their families) seek help for ASD assessment between the age group 6–18+. It is critical to understand and address factors for seeking late–stage diagnosis, as ASD can be diagnosed much earlier and how many of these later presenters are actually diagnosed with ASD. Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a public health concern in Dubai. Families do not consult GPs for early diagnosis for a variety of reasons including cultural reasons. Recommendations: Effective school health strategies is needed and implemented by nurses who are qualified and experienced in identifying children with ASD. There is a need for the DAC to identify and develop a closer link with neurologists specializing in Autism, to work alongside and for referrals. Autism can be attributed to many factors, some of those are neurological. Currently, when families need their child to see a neurologist they have to go independently and search through the many that are available in Dubai and who are not necessarily specialists in Autism. Training of GP’s to aid early diagnosis of Autism and increase awareness. Since not all GP’s are trained to make such assessments increasing awareness about where to send families for a complete assessment and the necessary support. There is an urgent need for an adult autism center for when the children leave the safe environment of the school at 18 years. These individuals require a day center or suitable job training/placements where appropriate. There is a need for further studies to cover the needs of people with an Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, autism, pervasive developmental disorders, incidence

Procedia PDF Downloads 220
188 Coping with Geological Hazards during Construction of Hydroelectric Projects in Himalaya

Authors: B. D. Patni, Ashwani Jain, Arindom Chakraborty

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The world’s highest mountain range has been forming since the collision of Indian Plate with Asian Plate 40-50 million years ago. The Indian subcontinent has been deeper and deeper in to the rest of Asia resulting upliftment of Himalaya & Tibetan Plateau. The complex domain has become a major challenge for construction of hydro electric projects. The Himalayas are geologically complex & seismically active. Shifting of Indian Plate northwardly and increasing the amount of stresses in the fragile domain which leads to deformation in the form of several fold, faults and upliftment. It is difficult to undergo extensive geological investigation to ascertain the geological problems to be encountered during construction. Inaccessibility of the terrain, high rock cover, unpredictable ground water condition etc. are the main constraints. The hydroelectric projects located in Himalayas have faced many geological and geo-hydrological problems while construction of surface and subsurface works. Based on the experience, efforts have been made to identify the expected geological problems during and after construction of the projects. These have been classified into surface and subsurface problems which include existence of inhomogeneous deep overburden in the river bed or buried valley, abrupt change in bed rock profile, Occurrences of fault zones/shear zones/fractured rock in dam foundation and slope instability in the abutments. The tunneling difficulties are many such as squeezing ground condition, popping, rock bursting, high temperature gradient, heavy ingress of water, existence of shear seams/shear zones and emission of obnoxious gases. However, these problems were mitigated by adopting suitable remedial measures as per site requirement. The support system includes shotcrete, wire mesh, rock bolts, steel ribs, fore-poling, pre-grouting, pipe-roofing, MAI anchors, toe wall, retaining walls, reinforced concrete dowels, drainage drifts, anchorage cum drainage shafts, soil nails, concrete cladding and shear keys. Controlled drilling & blasting, heading & benching, proper drainage network and ventilation system are other remedial measures adopted to overcome such adverse situations. The paper highlights the geological uncertainties and its remedial measures in Himalaya, based on the analysis and evaluation of 20 hydroelectric projects during construction.

Keywords: geological problems, shear seams, slope, drilling & blasting, shear zones

Procedia PDF Downloads 403
187 Geoinformation Technology of Agricultural Monitoring Using Multi-Temporal Satellite Imagery

Authors: Olena Kavats, Dmitry Khramov, Kateryna Sergieieva, Vladimir Vasyliev, Iurii Kavats

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Geoinformation technologies of space agromonitoring are a means of operative decision making support in the tasks of managing the agricultural sector of the economy. Existing technologies use satellite images in the optical range of electromagnetic spectrum. Time series of optical images often contain gaps due to the presence of clouds and haze. A geoinformation technology is created. It allows to fill gaps in time series of optical images (Sentinel-2, Landsat-8, PROBA-V, MODIS) with radar survey data (Sentinel-1) and use information about agrometeorological conditions of the growing season for individual monitoring years. The technology allows to perform crop classification and mapping for spring-summer (winter and spring crops) and autumn-winter (winter crops) periods of vegetation, monitoring the dynamics of crop state seasonal changes, crop yield forecasting. Crop classification is based on supervised classification algorithms, takes into account the peculiarities of crop growth at different vegetation stages (dates of sowing, emergence, active vegetation, and harvesting) and agriculture land state characteristics (row spacing, seedling density, etc.). A catalog of samples of the main agricultural crops (Ukraine) is created and crop spectral signatures are calculated with the preliminary removal of row spacing, cloud cover, and cloud shadows in order to construct time series of crop growth characteristics. The obtained data is used in grain crop growth tracking and in timely detection of growth trends deviations from reference samples of a given crop for a selected date. Statistical models of crop yield forecast are created in the forms of linear and nonlinear interconnections between crop yield indicators and crop state characteristics (temperature, precipitation, vegetation indices, etc.). Predicted values of grain crop yield are evaluated with an accuracy up to 95%. The developed technology was used for agricultural areas monitoring in a number of Great Britain and Ukraine regions using EOS Crop Monitoring Platform (https://crop-monitoring.eos.com). The obtained results allow to conclude that joint use of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images improve separation of winter crops (rapeseed, wheat, barley) in the early stages of vegetation (October-December). It allows to separate successfully the soybean, corn, and sunflower sowing areas that are quite similar in their spectral characteristics.

Keywords: geoinformation technology, crop classification, crop yield prediction, agricultural monitoring, EOS Crop Monitoring Platform

Procedia PDF Downloads 458
186 Integration of Icf Walls as Diurnal Solar Thermal Storage with Microchannel Solar Assisted Heat Pump for Space Heating and Domestic Hot Water Production

Authors: Mohammad Emamjome Kashan, Alan S. Fung

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In Canada, more than 32% of the total energy demand is related to the building sector. Therefore, there is a great opportunity for Greenhouse Gases (GHG) reduction by integrating solar collectors to provide building heating load and domestic hot water (DHW). Despite the cold winter weather, Canada has a good number of sunny and clear days that can be considered for diurnal solar thermal energy storage. Due to the energy mismatch between building heating load and solar irradiation availability, relatively big storage tanks are usually needed to store solar thermal energy during the daytime and then use it at night. On the other hand, water tanks occupy huge space, especially in big cities, space is relatively expensive. This project investigates the possibility of using a specific building construction material (ICF – Insulated Concrete Form) as diurnal solar thermal energy storage that is integrated with a heat pump and microchannel solar thermal collector (MCST). Not much literature has studied the application of building pre-existing walls as active solar thermal energy storage as a feasible and industrialized solution for the solar thermal mismatch. By using ICF walls that are integrated into the building envelope, instead of big storage tanks, excess solar energy can be stored in the concrete of the ICF wall that consists of EPS insulation layers on both sides to store the thermal energy. In this study, two solar-based systems are designed and simulated inTransient Systems Simulation Program(TRNSYS)to compare ICF wall thermal storage benefits over the system without ICF walls. In this study, the heating load and DHW of a Canadian single-family house located in London, Ontario, are provided by solar-based systems. The proposed system integrates the MCST collector, a water-to-water HP, a preheat tank, the main tank, fan coils (to deliver the building heating load), and ICF walls. During the day, excess solar energy is stored in the ICF walls (charging cycle). Thermal energy can be restored from the ICF walls when the preheat tank temperature drops below the ICF wall (discharging process) to increase the COP of the heat pump. The evaporator of the heat pump is taking is coupled with the preheat tank. The provided warm water by the heat pump is stored in the second tank. Fan coil units are in contact with the tank to provide a building heating load. DHW is also delivered is provided from the main tank. It is investigated that the system with ICF walls with an average solar fraction of 82%- 88% can cover the whole heating demand+DHW of nine months and has a 10-15% higher average solar fraction than the system without ICF walls. Sensitivity analysis for different parameters influencing the solar fraction is discussed in detail.

Keywords: net-zero building, renewable energy, solar thermal storage, microchannel solar thermal collector

Procedia PDF Downloads 121
185 Comparing Remote Sensing and in Situ Analyses of Test Wheat Plants as Means for Optimizing Data Collection in Precision Agriculture

Authors: Endalkachew Abebe Kebede, Bojin Bojinov, Andon Vasilev Andonov, Orhan Dengiz

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Remote sensing has a potential application in assessing and monitoring the plants' biophysical properties using the spectral responses of plants and soils within the electromagnetic spectrum. However, only a few reports compare the performance of different remote sensing sensors against in-situ field spectral measurement. The current study assessed the potential applications of open data source satellite images (Sentinel 2 and Landsat 9) in estimating the biophysical properties of the wheat crop on a study farm found in the village of OvchaMogila. A Landsat 9 (30 m resolution) and Sentinel-2 (10 m resolution) satellite images with less than 10% cloud cover have been extracted from the open data sources for the period of December 2021 to April 2022. An Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) has been used to capture the spectral response of plant leaves. In addition, SpectraVue 710s Leaf Spectrometer was used to measure the spectral response of the crop in April at five different locations within the same field. The ten most common vegetation indices have been selected and calculated based on the reflectance wavelength range of remote sensing tools used. The soil samples have been collected in eight different locations within the farm plot. The different physicochemical properties of the soil (pH, texture, N, P₂O₅, and K₂O) have been analyzed in the laboratory. The finer resolution images from the UAV and the Leaf Spectrometer have been used to validate the satellite images. The performance of different sensors has been compared based on the measured leaf spectral response and the extracted vegetation indices using the five sampling points. A scatter plot with the coefficient of determination (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the correlation (r) matrix prepared using the corr and heatmap python libraries have been used for comparing the performance of Sentinel 2 and Landsat 9 VIs compared to the drone and SpectraVue 710s spectrophotometer. The soil analysis revealed the study farm plot is slightly alkaline (8.4 to 8.52). The soil texture of the study farm is dominantly Clay and Clay Loam.The vegetation indices (VIs) increased linearly with the growth of the plant. Both the scatter plot and the correlation matrix showed that Sentinel 2 vegetation indices have a relatively better correlation with the vegetation indices of the Buteo dronecompared to the Landsat 9. The Landsat 9 vegetation indices somewhat align better with the leaf spectrometer. Generally, the Sentinel 2 showed a better performance than the Landsat 9. Further study with enough field spectral sampling and repeated UAV imaging is required to improve the quality of the current study.

Keywords: landsat 9, leaf spectrometer, sentinel 2, UAV

Procedia PDF Downloads 108
184 Molecular Characterization, Host Plant Resistance and Epidemiology of Bean Common Mosaic Virus Infecting Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp)

Authors: N. Manjunatha, K. T. Rangswamy, N. Nagaraju, H. A. Prameela, P. Rudraswamy, M. Krishnareddy

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The identification of virus in cowpea especially potyviruses is confusing. Even though there are several studies on viruses causing diseases in cowpea, difficult to distinguish based on symptoms and serological detection. The differentiation of potyviruses considering as a constraint, the present study is initiated for molecular characterization, host plant resistance and epidemiology of the BCMV infecting cowpea. The etiological agent causing cowpea mosaic was identified as Bean Common Mosaic Virus (BCMV) on the basis of RT-PCR and electron microscopy. An approximately 750bp PCR product corresponding to coat protein (CP) region of the virus and the presence of long flexuous filamentous particles measuring about 952 nm in size typical to genus potyvirus were observed under electron microscope. The characterized virus isolate genome had 10054 nucleotides, excluding the 3’ terminal poly (A) tail. Comparison of polyprotein of the virus with other potyviruses showed similar genome organization with 9 cleavage sites resulted in 10 functional proteins. The pairwise sequence comparison of individual genes, P1 showed most divergent, but CP gene was less divergent at nucleotide and amino acid level. A phylogenetic tree constructed based on multiple sequence alignments of the polyprotein nucleotide and amino acid sequences of cowpea BCMV and potyviruses showed virus is closely related to BCMV-HB. Whereas, Soybean variant of china (KJ807806) and NL1 isolate (AY112735) showed 93.8 % (5’UTR) and 94.9 % (3’UTR) homology respectively with other BCMV isolates. This virus transmitted to different leguminous plant species and produced systemic symptoms under greenhouse conditions. Out of 100 cowpea genotypes screened, three genotypes viz., IC 8966, V 5 and IC 202806 showed immune reaction in both field and greenhouse conditions. Single marker analysis (SMA) was revealed out of 4 SSR markers linked to BCMV resistance, M135 marker explains 28.2 % of phenotypic variation (R2) and Polymorphic information content (PIC) value of these markers was ranged from 0.23 to 0.37. The correlation and regression analysis showed rainfall, and minimum temperature had significant negative impact and strong relationship with aphid population, whereas weak correlation was observed with disease incidence. Path coefficient analysis revealed most of the weather parameters exerted their indirect contributions to the aphid population and disease incidence except minimum temperature. This study helps to identify specific gaps in knowledge for researchers who may wish to further analyse the science behind complex interactions between vector-virus and host in relation to the environment. The resistant genotypes identified are could be effectively used in resistance breeding programme.

Keywords: cowpea, epidemiology, genotypes, virus

Procedia PDF Downloads 237
183 Whistleblowing a Contemporary Topic Concerning Businesses

Authors: Andreas Kapardis, Maria Krambia-Kapardis, Sofia Michaelides-Mateou

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Corruption and economic crime is a serious problem affecting the sustainability of businesses in the 21st century. Nowadays, many corruption or fraud cases come to light thanks to whistleblowers. This article will first discuss the concept of whistleblowing as well as some relevant legislation enacted around the world. Secondly, it will discuss the findings of a survey of whistleblowers or could-have-been whistleblowers. Finally, suggestions for the development of a comprehensive whistleblowing framework will be considered. Whistleblowing can be described as expressing a concern about a wrongdoing within an organization, such as a corporation, an association, an institution or a union. Such concern must be in the public interest and in good faith and should relate to the cover up of matters that could potentially result in a miscarriage of justice, a crime, criminal offence and threats to health and safety. Whistleblowing has proven to be an effective anti-corruption mechanism and a powerful tool that helps deterring fraud, violations, and malpractices within organizations, corporations and the public sector. Research in the field of whistleblowing has concentrated on the reasons for whistleblowing and financial bounties; the effectiveness of whistleblowing; whistleblowing being a prosocial behavior with a psychological perspective and consequences; as a tool in protecting shareholders, saving lives and billions of dollars of public funds. Whilst, no other study of whistleblowing has been carried out on whistleblowers or intended whistleblowers. The study reported in the current paper analyses the findings of 74 whistleblowers or intended whistleblowers, the reasons behind their decision to blow the whistle, or not to proceed to blow the whistle and any regrets they may have had. In addition a profile of a whistleblower is developed concerning their age, gender, marital and family status and position in an organization. Lessons learned from the intended whistleblowers and in response to the questions if they would be willing to blow the whistle again show that enacting legislation to protect the whistleblower is not enough. Similarly, rewarding the whistleblower does not appear to provide the whistleblower with an incentive since the majority noted that “work ethics is more important than financial rewards”. We recommend the development of a comprehensive and holistic framework for the protection of the whistleblower and to ensure that remedial actions are immediately taken once a whistleblower comes forward. The suggested framework comprises (a) hard legislation in ensuring the whistleblowers follow certain principles when blowing the whistle and, in return, are protected for a period of 5 years from being fired, dismissed, bullied, harassed; (b) soft legislation in establishing an agency to firstly ensure psychological and legal advice is provided to the whistleblowers and secondly any required remedial action is immediately taken to avert the undesirable events reported by a whistleblower from occurring and, finally; (c) mechanisms to ensure the coordination of actions taken.

Keywords: whistleblowing, business ethics, legislation, business

Procedia PDF Downloads 311
182 Experimental Investigation on Tensile Durability of Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer (GFRP) Rebar Embedded in High Performance Concrete

Authors: Yuan Yue, Wen-Wei Wang

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The objective of this research is to comprehensively evaluate the impact of alkaline environments on the durability of Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer (GFRP) reinforcements in concrete structures and further explore their potential value within the construction industry. Specifically, we investigate the effects of two widely used high-performance concrete (HPC) materials on the durability of GFRP bars when embedded within them under varying temperature conditions. A total of 279 GFRP bar specimens were manufactured for microcosmic and mechanical performance tests. Among them, 270 specimens were used to test the residual tensile strength after 120 days of immersion, while 9 specimens were utilized for microscopic testing to analyze degradation damage. SEM techniques were employed to examine the microstructure of GFRP and cover concrete. Unidirectional tensile strength experiments were conducted to determine the remaining tensile strength after corrosion. The experimental variables consisted of four types of concrete (engineering cementitious composite (ECC), ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC), and two types of ordinary concrete with different compressive strengths) as well as three acceleration temperatures (20, 40, and 60℃). The experimental results demonstrate that high-performance concrete (HPC) offers superior protection for GFRP bars compared to ordinary concrete. Two types of HPC enhance durability through different mechanisms: one by reducing the pH of the concrete pore fluid and the other by decreasing permeability. For instance, ECC improves embedded GFRP's durability by lowering the pH of the pore fluid. After 120 days of immersion at 60°C under accelerated conditions, ECC (pH=11.5) retained 68.99% of its strength, while PC1 (pH=13.5) retained 54.88%. On the other hand, UHPC enhances FRP steel's durability by increasing porosity and compactness in its protective layer to reinforce FRP reinforcement's longevity. Due to fillers present in UHPC, it typically exhibits lower porosity, higher densities, and greater resistance to permeation compared to PC2 with similar pore fluid pH levels, resulting in varying degrees of durability for GFRP bars embedded in UHPC and PC2 after 120 days of immersion at a temperature of 60°C - with residual strengths being 66.32% and 60.89%, respectively. Furthermore, SEM analysis revealed no noticeable evidence indicating fiber deterioration in any examined specimens, thus suggesting that uneven stress distribution resulting from interface segregation and matrix damage emerges as a primary causative factor for tensile strength reduction in GFRP rather than fiber corrosion. Moreover, long-term prediction models were utilized to calculate residual strength values over time for reinforcement embedded in HPC under high temperature and high humidity conditions - demonstrating that approximately 75% of its initial strength was retained by reinforcement embedded in HPC after 100 years of service.

Keywords: GFRP bars, HPC, degeneration, durability, residual tensile strength.

Procedia PDF Downloads 58
181 Development and Adaptation of a LGBM Machine Learning Model, with a Suitable Concept Drift Detection and Adaptation Technique, for Barcelona Household Electric Load Forecasting During Covid-19 Pandemic Periods (Pre-Pandemic and Strict Lockdown)

Authors: Eric Pla Erra, Mariana Jimenez Martinez

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While aggregated loads at a community level tend to be easier to predict, individual household load forecasting present more challenges with higher volatility and uncertainty. Furthermore, the drastic changes that our behavior patterns have suffered due to the COVID-19 pandemic have modified our daily electrical consumption curves and, therefore, further complicated the forecasting methods used to predict short-term electric load. Load forecasting is vital for the smooth and optimized planning and operation of our electric grids, but it also plays a crucial role for individual domestic consumers that rely on a HEMS (Home Energy Management Systems) to optimize their energy usage through self-generation, storage, or smart appliances management. An accurate forecasting leads to higher energy savings and overall energy efficiency of the household when paired with a proper HEMS. In order to study how COVID-19 has affected the accuracy of forecasting methods, an evaluation of the performance of a state-of-the-art LGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Model) will be conducted during the transition between pre-pandemic and lockdowns periods, considering day-ahead electric load forecasting. LGBM improves the capabilities of standard Decision Tree models in both speed and reduction of memory consumption, but it still offers a high accuracy. Even though LGBM has complex non-linear modelling capabilities, it has proven to be a competitive method under challenging forecasting scenarios such as short series, heterogeneous series, or data patterns with minimal prior knowledge. An adaptation of the LGBM model – called “resilient LGBM” – will be also tested, incorporating a concept drift detection technique for time series analysis, with the purpose to evaluate its capabilities to improve the model’s accuracy during extreme events such as COVID-19 lockdowns. The results for the LGBM and resilient LGBM will be compared using standard RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) as the main performance metric. The models’ performance will be evaluated over a set of real households’ hourly electricity consumption data measured before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. All households are located in the city of Barcelona, Spain, and present different consumption profiles. This study is carried out under the ComMit-20 project, financed by AGAUR (Agència de Gestiód’AjutsUniversitaris), which aims to determine the short and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on building energy consumption, incrementing the resilience of electrical systems through the use of tools such as HEMS and artificial intelligence.

Keywords: concept drift, forecasting, home energy management system (HEMS), light gradient boosting model (LGBM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 106
180 An Overview on Micro Irrigation-Accelerating Growth of Indian Agriculture

Authors: Rohit Lall

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The adoption of Micro Irrigation (MI) technologies in India has helped in achieving higher cropping and irrigation intensity with significant savings on resource savings such as labour, fertilizer and improved crop yields. These technologies have received considerable attention from policymakers, growers and researchers over the years for its perceived ability to contribute towards agricultural productivity and economic growth with the well-being of the growers of the country. Keeping the pace with untapped theoretical potential to cover government had launched flagship programs/centre sector schemes with earmarked budget to capture the potential under these waters saving techniques envisaged under these technologies by way of providing financial assistance to the beneficiaries for adopting these technologies. Micro Irrigation technologies have been in the special attention of the policymakers over the years. India being an agrarian economy having engaged 75% of the population directly or indirectly having skilled, semi-skilled and entrepreneurs in the sector with focused attention and financial allocations from the government under these technologies in covering the untapped potential under Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY) 'Per Drop More Crop component.' During the year 2004, a Taskforce on Micro Irrigation was constituted to estimate the potential of these technologies in India which was estimated 69.5 million hectares by the Task Force Report on MI however only 10.49 million hectares have been achieved so far. Technology collaborations by leading manufacturing companies in overseas have proved to a stepping stone in technology advancement and product up gradation with increased efficiencies. Joint ventures by the leading MI companies have added huge business volumes which have not only accelerated the momentum of achieving the desired goal but in terms of area coverage but had also generated opportunities for the polymer manufacturers in the country. To provide products matching the global standards Bureau of Indian Standards have constituted a sectional technical committee under the Food and Agriculture Department (FAD)-17 to formulated/devise and revise standards pertaining to MI technologies. The research lobby has also contributed at large by developing in-situ analysis proving MI technologies a boon for farming community of the country with resource conservation of which water is of paramount importance. Thus, Micro Irrigation technologies have proved to be the key tool for feeding the grueling demand of food basket of the growing population besides maintaining soil health and have been contributing towards doubling of farmers’ income.

Keywords: task force on MI, standards, per drop more crop, doubling farmers’ income

Procedia PDF Downloads 118
179 Therapeutic Challenges in Treatment of Adults Bacterial Meningitis Cases

Authors: Sadie Namani, Lindita Ajazaj, Arjeta Zogaj, Vera Berisha, Bahrije Halili, Luljeta Hasani, Ajete Aliu

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Background: The outcome of bacterial meningitis is strongly related to the resistance of bacterial pathogens to the initial antimicrobial therapy. The objective of the study was to analyze the initial antimicrobial therapy, the resistance of meningeal pathogens and the outcome of adults bacterial meningitis cases. Materials/methods: This prospective study enrolled 46 adults older than 16 years of age, treated for bacterial meningitis during the years 2009 and 2010 at the infectious diseases clinic in Prishtinë. Patients are categorized into specific age groups: > 16-26 years of age (10 patients), > 26-60 years of age (25 patients) and > 60 years of age (11 patients). All p-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Data were analyzed using Stata 7.1 and SPSS 13. Results: During the two year study period 46 patients (28 males) were treated for bacterial meningitis. 33 patients (72%) had a confirmed bacterial etiology; 13 meningococci, 11 pneumococci, 7 gram-negative bacilli (Ps. aeruginosa 2, Proteus sp. 2, Acinetobacter sp. 2 and Klebsiella sp. 1 case) and 2 staphylococci isolates were found. Neurological complications developed in 17 patients (37%) and the overall mortality rate was 13% (6 deaths). Neurological complications observed were: cerebral abscess (7/46; 15.2%), cerebral edema (4/46; 8.7%); haemiparesis (3/46; 6.5%); recurrent seizures (2/46; 4.3%), and single cases of thrombosis sinus cavernosus, facial nerve palsy and decerebration (1/46; 2.1%). The most common meningeal pathogens were meningococcus in the youngest age group, gram negative-bacilli in second age group and pneumococcus in eldery age group. Initial single-agent antibiotic therapy (ceftriaxone) was used in 17 patients (37%): in 60% of patients in the youngest age group and in 44% of cases in the second age group. 29 patients (63%) were treated with initial dual-agent antibiotic therapy; ceftriaxone in combination with vancomycin or ampicillin. Ceftriaxone and ampicillin were the most commonly used antibiotics for the initial empirical therapy in adults > 50 years of age. All adults > 60 years of age were treated with the initial dual-agent antibiotic therapy as in this age group was recorded the highest mortality rate (M=27%) and adverse outcome (64%). Resistance of pathogens to antimicrobics was recorded in cases caused by gram-negative bacilli and was associated with greater risk for developing neurological complications (p=0.09). None of the gram-negative bacilli were resistant to carbapenems; all were resistant to ampicillin while 5/7 isolates were resistant to cefalosporins. Resistance of meningococci and pneumococci to beta-lactams was not recorded. There were no statistical differences in the occurrence of neurological complications (p > 0.05), resistance of meningeal pathogens to antimicrobics (p > 0.05) and the inital antimicrobial therapy (one vs. two antibiotics) concerning group-ages in adults. Conclusions: The initial antibiotic therapy with ceftriaxone alone or in combination with vancomycin or ampicillin did not cover cases caused by gram-negative bacilli.

Keywords: adults, bacterial meningitis, outcomes, therapy

Procedia PDF Downloads 174
178 MBES-CARIS Data Validation for the Bathymetric Mapping of Shallow Water in the Kingdom of Bahrain on the Arabian Gulf

Authors: Abderrazak Bannari, Ghadeer Kadhem

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The objectives of this paper are the validation and the evaluation of MBES-CARIS BASE surface data performance for bathymetric mapping of shallow water in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The latter is an archipelago with a total land area of about 765.30 km², approximately 126 km of coastline and 8,000 km² of marine area, located in the Arabian Gulf, east of Saudi Arabia and west of Qatar (26° 00’ N, 50° 33’ E). To achieve our objectives, bathymetric attributed grid files (X, Y, and depth) generated from the coverage of ship-track MBSE data with 300 x 300 m cells, processed with CARIS-HIPS, were downloaded from the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO). Then, brought into ArcGIS and converted into a raster format following five steps: Exportation of GEBCO BASE surface data to the ASCII file; conversion of ASCII file to a points shape file; extraction of the area points covering the water boundary of the Kingdom of Bahrain and multiplying the depth values by -1 to get the negative values. Then, the simple Kriging method was used in ArcMap environment to generate a new raster bathymetric grid surface of 30×30 m cells, which was the basis of the subsequent analysis. Finally, for validation purposes, 2200 bathymetric points were extracted from a medium scale nautical map (1:100 000) considering different depths over the Bahrain national water boundary. The nautical map was scanned, georeferenced and overlaid on the MBES-CARIS generated raster bathymetric grid surface (step 5 above), and then homologous depth points were selected. Statistical analysis, expressed as a linear error at the 95% confidence level, showed a strong correlation coefficient (R² = 0.96) and a low RMSE (± 0.57 m) between the nautical map and derived MBSE-CARIS depths if we consider only the shallow areas with depths of less than 10 m (about 800 validation points). When we consider only deeper areas (> 10 m) the correlation coefficient is equal to 0.73 and the RMSE is equal to ± 2.43 m while if we consider the totality of 2200 validation points including all depths, the correlation coefficient is still significant (R² = 0.81) with satisfactory RMSE (± 1.57 m). Certainly, this significant variation can be caused by the MBSE that did not completely cover the bottom in several of the deeper pockmarks because of the rapid change in depth. In addition, steep slopes and the rough seafloor probably affect the acquired MBSE raw data. In addition, the interpolation of missed area values between MBSE acquisition swaths-lines (ship-tracked sounding data) may not reflect the true depths of these missed areas. However, globally the results of the MBES-CARIS data are very appropriate for bathymetric mapping of shallow water areas.

Keywords: bathymetry mapping, multibeam echosounder systems, CARIS-HIPS, shallow water

Procedia PDF Downloads 381
177 Comprehensive, Up-to-Date Climate System Change Indicators, Trends and Interactions

Authors: Peter Carter

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Comprehensive climate change indicators and trends inform the state of the climate (system) with respect to present and future climate change scenarios and the urgency of mitigation and adaptation. With data records now going back for many decades, indicator trends can complement model projections. They are provided as datasets by several climate monitoring centers, reviewed by state of the climate reports, and documented by the IPCC assessments. Up-to-date indicators are provided here. Rates of change are instructive, as are extremes. The indicators include greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (natural and synthetic), cumulative CO2 emissions, atmospheric GHG concentrations (including CO2 equivalent), stratospheric ozone, surface ozone, radiative forcing, global average temperature increase, land temperature increase, zonal temperature increases, carbon sinks, soil moisture, sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, ocean acidification, ocean oxygen, glacier mass, Arctic temperature, Arctic sea ice (extent and volume), northern hemisphere snow cover, permafrost indices, Arctic GHG emissions, ice sheet mass, sea level rise, and stratospheric and surface ozone. Global warming is not the most reliable single metric for the climate state. Radiative forcing, atmospheric CO2 equivalent, and ocean heat content are more reliable. Global warming does not provide future commitment, whereas atmospheric CO2 equivalent does. Cumulative carbon is used for estimating carbon budgets. The forcing of aerosols is briefly addressed. Indicator interactions are included. In particular, indicators can provide insight into several crucial global warming amplifying feedback loops, which are explained. All indicators are increasing (adversely), most as fast as ever and some faster. One particularly pressing indicator is rapidly increasing global atmospheric methane. In this respect, methane emissions and sources are covered in more detail. In their application, indicators used in assessing safe planetary boundaries are included. Indicators are considered with respect to recent published papers on possible catastrophic climate change and climate system tipping thresholds. They are climate-change-policy relevant. In particular, relevant policies include the 2015 Paris Agreement on “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels” and the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate change, which has “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

Keywords: climate change, climate change indicators, climate change trends, climate system change interactions

Procedia PDF Downloads 105
176 Geochemical Modeling of Mineralogical Changes in Rock and Concrete in Interaction with Groundwater

Authors: Barbora Svechova, Monika Licbinska

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Geochemical modeling of mineralogical changes of various materials in contact with an aqueous solution is an important tool for predicting the processes and development of given materials at the site. The modeling focused on the mutual interaction of groundwater at the contact with the rock mass and its subsequent influence on concrete structures. The studied locality is located in Slovakia in the area of the Liptov Basin, which is a significant inter-mountain lowland, which is bordered on the north and south by the core mountains belt of the Tatras, where in the center the crystalline rises to the surface accompanied by Mesozoic cover. Groundwater in the area is bound to structures with complicated geological structures. From the hydrogeological point of view, it is an environment with a crack-fracture character. The area is characterized by a shallow surface circulation of groundwater without a significant collector structure, and from a chemical point of view, groundwater in the area has been classified as calcium bicarbonate with a high content of CO2 and SO4 ions. According to the European standard EN 206-1, these are waters with medium aggression towards the concrete. Three rock samples were taken from the area. Based on petrographic and mineralogical research, they were evaluated as calcareous shale, micritic limestone and crystalline shale. These three rock samples were placed in demineralized water for one month and the change in the chemical composition of the water was monitored. During the solution-rock interaction there was an increase in the concentrations of all major ions, except nitrates. There was an increase in concentration after a week, but at the end of the experiment, the concentration was lower than the initial value. Another experiment was the interaction of groundwater from the studied locality with a concrete structure. The concrete sample was also left in the water for 1 month. The results of the experiment confirmed the assumption of a reduction in the concentrations of calcium and bicarbonate ions in water due to the precipitation of amorphous forms of CaCO3 on the surface of the sample.Vice versa, it was surprising to increase the concentration of sulphates, sodium, iron and aluminum due to the leaching of concrete. Chemical analyzes from these experiments were performed in the PHREEQc program, which calculated the probability of the formation of amorphous forms of minerals. From the results of chemical analyses and hydrochemical modeling of water collected in situ and water from experiments, it was found: groundwater at the site is unsaturated and shows moderate aggression towards reinforced concrete structures according to EN 206-1a, which will affect the homogeneity and integrity of concrete structures; from the rocks in the given area, Ca, Na, Fe, HCO3 and SO4. Unsaturated waters will dissolve everything as soon as they come into contact with the solid matrix. The speed of this process then depends on the physicochemical parameters of the environment (T, ORP, p, n, water retention time in the environment, etc.).

Keywords: geochemical modeling, concrete , dissolution , PHREEQc

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175 Coping Strategies and Characterization of Vulnerability in the Perspective of Climate Change

Authors: Muhammad Umer Mehmood, Muhammad Luqman, Muhammad Yaseen, Imtiaz Hussain

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Climate change is an arduous fact, which could not be unheeded easily. It is a phenomenon which has brought a collection of challenges for the mankind. Scientists have found many of its negative impacts on the life of human being and the resources on which the life of humanity is dependent. There are many issues which are associated with the factor of prime importance in this study, 'climate change'. Whenever changes happen in nature, they strike the whole globe. Effects of these changes vary from region to region. Climate of every region of this globe is different from the other. Even within a state, country or the province has different climatic conditions. So it is mandatory that the response in that specific region and the coping strategy of this specific region should be according to the prevailing risk. In the present study, the objective was to assess the coping strategies and vulnerability of small landholders. So that a professional suggestion could be made to cope with the vulnerability factor of small farmers. The cross-sectional research design was used with the intervention of quantitative approach. The study was conducted in the Khanewal district, of Punjab, Pakistan. 120 small farmers were interviewed after randomized sampling from the population of respective area. All respondents were above the age of 15 years. A questionnaire was developed after keen observation of facts in the respective area. Content and face validity of the instrument was assessed with SPSS and experts in the field. Data were analyzed through SPSS using descriptive statistics. From the sample of 120, 81.67% of the respondents claimed that the environment is getting warmer and not fit for their present agricultural practices. 84.17% of the sample expressed serious concern that they are disturbed due to change in rainfall pattern and vulnerability towards the climatic effects. On the other hand, they expressed that they are not good at tackling the effects of climate change. Adaptation of coping strategies like change in cropping pattern, use of resistant varieties, varieties with minimum water requirement, intercropping and tree planting was low by more than half of the sample. From the sample 63.33% small farmers said that the coping strategies they adopt are not effective enough. The present study showed that subsistence farming, lack of marketing and overall infrastructure, lack of access to social security networks, limited access to agriculture extension services, inappropriate access to agrometeorological system, unawareness and access to scientific development and low crop yield are the prominent factors which are responsible for the vulnerability of small farmers. A comprehensive study should be conducted at national level so that a national policy could be formulated to cope with the dilemma in future with relevance to climate change. Mainstreaming and collaboration among the researchers and academicians could prove beneficiary in this regard the interest of national leaders’ does matter. Proper policies to avoid the vulnerability factors should be the top priority. The world is taking up this issue with full responsibility as should we, keeping in view the local situation.

Keywords: adaptation, coping strategies, climate change, Pakistan, small farmers, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 144
174 Mathematical Toolbox for editing Equations and Geometrical Diagrams and Graphs

Authors: Ayola D. N. Jayamaha, Gihan V. Dias, Surangika Ranathunga

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Currently there are lot of educational tools designed for mathematics. Open source software such as GeoGebra and Octave are bulky in their architectural structure. In addition, there is MathLab software, which facilitates much more than what we ask for. Many of the computer aided online grading and assessment tools require integrating editors to their software. However, there are not exist suitable editors that cater for all their needs in editing equations and geometrical diagrams and graphs. Some of the existing software for editing equations is Alfred’s Equation Editor, Codecogs, DragMath, Maple, MathDox, MathJax, MathMagic, MathFlow, Math-o-mir, Microsoft Equation Editor, MiraiMath, OpenOffice, WIRIS Editor and MyScript. Some of them are commercial, open source, supports handwriting recognition, mobile apps, renders MathML/LaTeX, Flash / Web based and javascript display engines. Some of the diagram editors are GeoKone.NET, Tabulae, Cinderella 1.4, MyScript, Dia, Draw2D touch, Gliffy, GeoGebra, Flowchart, Jgraph, JointJS, J painter Online diagram editor and 2D sketcher. All these software are open source except for MyScript and can be used for editing mathematical diagrams. However, they do not fully cater the needs of a typical computer aided assessment tool or Educational Platform for Mathematics. This solution provides a Web based, lightweight, easy to implement and integrate solution of an html5 canvas that renders on all of the modern web browsers. The scope of the project is an editor that covers equations and mathematical diagrams and drawings on the O/L Mathematical Exam Papers in Sri Lanka. Using the tool the students can enter any equation to the system which can be on an online remote learning platform. The users can also create and edit geometrical drawings, graphs and do geometrical constructions that require only Compass and Ruler from the Editing Interface provided by the Software. The special feature of this software is the geometrical constructions. It allows the users to create geometrical constructions such as angle bisectors, perpendicular lines, angles of 600 and perpendicular bisectors. The tool correctly imitates the functioning of rulers and compasses to create the required geometrical construction. Therefore, the users are able to do geometrical drawings on the computer successfully and we have a digital format of the geometrical drawing for further processing. Secondly, we can create and edit Venn Diagrams, color them and label them. In addition, the students can draw probability tree diagrams and compound probability outcome grids. They can label and mark regions within the grids. Thirdly, students can draw graphs (1st order and 2nd order). They can mark points on a graph paper and the system connects the dots to draw the graph. Further students are able to draw standard shapes such as circles and rectangles by selecting points on a grid or entering the parametric values.

Keywords: geometrical drawings, html5 canvas, mathematical equations, toolbox

Procedia PDF Downloads 378
173 Seismic Perimeter Surveillance System (Virtual Fence) for Threat Detection and Characterization Using Multiple ML Based Trained Models in Weighted Ensemble Voting

Authors: Vivek Mahadev, Manoj Kumar, Neelu Mathur, Brahm Dutt Pandey

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Perimeter guarding and protection of critical installations require prompt intrusion detection and assessment to take effective countermeasures. Currently, visual and electronic surveillance are the primary methods used for perimeter guarding. These methods can be costly and complicated, requiring careful planning according to the location and terrain. Moreover, these methods often struggle to detect stealthy and camouflaged insurgents. The object of the present work is to devise a surveillance technique using seismic sensors that overcomes the limitations of existing systems. The aim is to improve intrusion detection, assessment, and characterization by utilizing seismic sensors. Most of the similar systems have only two types of intrusion detection capability viz., human or vehicle. In our work we could even categorize further to identify types of intrusion activity such as walking, running, group walking, fence jumping, tunnel digging and vehicular movements. A virtual fence of 60 meters at GCNEP, Bahadurgarh, Haryana, India, was created by installing four underground geophones at a distance of 15 meters each. The signals received from these geophones are then processed to find unique seismic signatures called features. Various feature optimization and selection methodologies, such as LightGBM, Boruta, Random Forest, Logistics, Recursive Feature Elimination, Chi-2 and Pearson Ratio were used to identify the best features for training the machine learning models. The trained models were developed using algorithms such as supervised support vector machine (SVM) classifier, kNN, Decision Tree, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, and Artificial Neural Networks. These models were then used to predict the category of events, employing weighted ensemble voting to analyze and combine their results. The models were trained with 1940 training events and results were evaluated with 831 test events. It was observed that using the weighted ensemble voting increased the efficiency of predictions. In this study we successfully developed and deployed the virtual fence using geophones. Since these sensors are passive, do not radiate any energy and are installed underground, it is impossible for intruders to locate and nullify them. Their flexibility, quick and easy installation, low costs, hidden deployment and unattended surveillance make such systems especially suitable for critical installations and remote facilities with difficult terrain. This work demonstrates the potential of utilizing seismic sensors for creating better perimeter guarding and protection systems using multiple machine learning models in weighted ensemble voting. In this study the virtual fence achieved an intruder detection efficiency of over 97%.

Keywords: geophone, seismic perimeter surveillance, machine learning, weighted ensemble method

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172 Automated Prediction of HIV-associated Cervical Cancer Patients Using Data Mining Techniques for Survival Analysis

Authors: O. J. Akinsola, Yinan Zheng, Rose Anorlu, F. T. Ogunsola, Lifang Hou, Robert Leo-Murphy

Abstract:

Cervical Cancer (CC) is the 2nd most common cancer among women living in low and middle-income countries, with no associated symptoms during formative periods. With the advancement and innovative medical research, there are numerous preventive measures being utilized, but the incidence of cervical cancer cannot be truncated with the application of only screening tests. The mortality associated with this invasive cervical cancer can be nipped in the bud through the important role of early-stage detection. This study research selected an array of different top features selection techniques which was aimed at developing a model that could validly diagnose the risk factors of cervical cancer. A retrospective clinic-based cohort study was conducted on 178 HIV-associated cervical cancer patients in Lagos University teaching Hospital, Nigeria (U54 data repository) in April 2022. The outcome measure was the automated prediction of the HIV-associated cervical cancer cases, while the predictor variables include: demographic information, reproductive history, birth control, sexual history, cervical cancer screening history for invasive cervical cancer. The proposed technique was assessed with R and Python programming software to produce the model by utilizing the classification algorithms for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer disease. Four machine learning classification algorithms used are: the machine learning model was split into training and testing dataset into ratio 80:20. The numerical features were also standardized while hyperparameter tuning was carried out on the machine learning to train and test the data. Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN). Some fitting features were selected for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer diseases from selected characteristics in the dataset using the contribution of various selection methods for the classification cervical cancer into healthy or diseased status. The mean age of patients was 49.7±12.1 years, mean age at pregnancy was 23.3±5.5 years, mean age at first sexual experience was 19.4±3.2 years, while the mean BMI was 27.1±5.6 kg/m2. A larger percentage of the patients are Married (62.9%), while most of them have at least two sexual partners (72.5%). Age of patients (OR=1.065, p<0.001**), marital status (OR=0.375, p=0.011**), number of pregnancy live-births (OR=1.317, p=0.007**), and use of birth control pills (OR=0.291, p=0.015**) were found to be significantly associated with HIV-associated cervical cancer. On top ten 10 features (variables) considered in the analysis, RF claims the overall model performance, which include: accuracy of (72.0%), the precision of (84.6%), a recall of (84.6%) and F1-score of (74.0%) while LR has: an accuracy of (74.0%), precision of (70.0%), recall of (70.0%) and F1-score of (70.0%). The RF model identified 10 features predictive of developing cervical cancer. The age of patients was considered as the most important risk factor, followed by the number of pregnancy livebirths, marital status, and use of birth control pills, The study shows that data mining techniques could be used to identify women living with HIV at high risk of developing cervical cancer in Nigeria and other sub-Saharan African countries.

Keywords: associated cervical cancer, data mining, random forest, logistic regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 85