Search results for: shared frailty survival models

Authors: Buddhi Arachchige, Hessam Ghasemnejad

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In this study, the post impact behavior of curved composite plates subjected to low velocity impact was studied analytically and numerically. Approaches to damage modelling are proposed through the degradation of stiffness in the damaged region by reduction of thickness in the damage region. Spring-mass models were used to model the impact response of the plate and impactor. The study involved designing two damage models to compare and contrast the model best fitted with the numerical results. The theoretical force-time responses were compared with the numerical results obtained through a detailed study carried out in LS-DYNA. The modified damage model established a good prediction with the analytical force-time response for different layups and geometry. This study provides a gateway in selecting the most effective layups for variable stiffness curved composite panels able to withstand a higher impact damage.

Keywords: analytical modelling, composite damage, impact, variable stiffness

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: H. J. Joshi, Satyajeet Patil, Parth Dandavate, Mihir Kulkarni, Harshita Agrawal

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As the world looks towards a sustainable future, electric vehicles have become increasingly popular. Millions worldwide are looking to switch to Electric cars over the previously favored combustion engine-powered cars. This demand has seen an increase in Electric Vehicle Charging Stations. The big challenge is that the randomness of electrical energy makes it tough for these charging stations to provide an adequate amount of energy over a specific amount of time. Thus, it has become increasingly crucial to model these patterns and forecast the energy needs of power stations. This paper aims to analyze how different machine learning models perform on Electric Vehicle charging time-series data. The data set consists of authentic Electric Vehicle Data from the Netherlands. It has an overview of ten thousand transactions from public stations operated by EVnetNL.

Keywords: forecasting, smart grid, electric vehicle load forecasting, machine learning, time series forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Felipe M. de Freitas, Icaro V. Soares, Lucas L. L. Fortes, Sandro T. M. Gonçalves, Úrsula D. C. Resende

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The SPICE-based simulators are quite robust and widely used for simulation of electronic circuits, their algorithms support linear and non-linear lumped components and they can manipulate an expressive amount of encapsulated elements. Despite the great potential of these simulators based on SPICE in the analysis of quasi-static electromagnetic field interaction, that is, at low frequency, these simulators are limited when applied to microwave hybrid circuits in which there are both lumped and distributed elements. Usually the spatial discretization of the FDTD (Finite-Difference Time-Domain) method is done according to the actual size of the element under analysis. After spatial discretization, the Courant Stability Criterion calculates the maximum temporal discretization accepted for such spatial discretization and for the propagation velocity of the wave. This criterion guarantees the stability conditions for the leapfrogging of the Yee algorithm; however, it is known that for the field update, the stability of the complete FDTD procedure depends on factors other than just the stability of the Yee algorithm, because the FDTD program needs other algorithms in order to be useful in engineering problems. Examples of these algorithms are Absorbent Boundary Conditions (ABCs), excitation sources, subcellular techniques, grouped elements, and non-uniform or non-orthogonal meshes. In this work, the influence of the stability of the FDTD method in the modeling of concentrated elements such as resistive sources, resistors, capacitors, inductors and diode will be evaluated. In this paper is proposed, therefore, the electromagnetic modeling of electronic components in order to create models that satisfy the needs for simulations of circuits in ultra-wide frequencies. The models of the resistive source, the resistor, the capacitor, the inductor, and the diode will be evaluated, among the mathematical models for lumped components in the LE-FDTD method (Lumped-Element Finite-Difference Time-Domain), through the parametric analysis of Yee cells size which discretizes the lumped components. In this way, it is sought to find an ideal cell size so that the analysis in FDTD environment is in greater agreement with the expected circuit behavior, maintaining the stability conditions of this method. Based on the mathematical models and the theoretical basis of the required extensions of the FDTD method, the computational implementation of the models in Matlab® environment is carried out. The boundary condition Mur is used as the absorbing boundary of the FDTD method. The validation of the model is done through the comparison between the obtained results by the FDTD method through the electric field values and the currents in the components, and the analytical results using circuit parameters.

Keywords: hybrid circuits, LE-FDTD, lumped element, parametric analysis

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Authors: Tin Thongthammachart, Wanida Jinsart

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Atmospheric particulate matter particles with a diameter less than 10 microns (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5 microns (PM₂.₅) have adverse health effect. The impact from PM was studied from both health and regulatory perspective. Ambient PM data was collected over ten years in Bangkok and vicinity areas of Thailand from 2007 to 2017. Statistical models were used to forecast PM concentrations from 2018 to 2020. Monitoring monthly data averaged concentration of PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅ were used as input to forecast the monthly average concentration of PM. The forecasting results were validated by root means square error (RMSE). The predicted results were used to determine hazard risk for the carcinogenic disease. The health risk values were interpolated with GIS with ordinary kriging technique to create hazard maps in Bangkok and vicinity area. GIS-based maps illustrated the variability of PM distribution and high-risk locations. These evaluated results could support national policy for the sake of human health.

Keywords: PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, statistical models, atmospheric particulate matter

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Kaycee Bills

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Action research is a method of inquiry useful in solving social problems in social work. This study seeks to address a significant problem: higher education’s use of traditional instructional methods in social work education. Ineffective techniques, such as lecturing, fail to account for students’ variable learning needs. In contrast to traditional pedagogy, universal design for learning (UDL) is a robust framework that '[improves] and [optimizes] teaching and learning for all people' (CAST, 2018), including students with disabilities. For this project, the research team interviewed the UDL and Accessibility Specialist at their institution for two reasons: (1) to learn how to implement UDL practices in their classrooms, and in turn, (2) to motivate other faculty members at their institution to consider enacting UDL principles. A thematic analysis of the interview’s transcript reveals themes relevant to practicing UDL. Implications for future practice, as well as the researcher’s reflections on the research process, are shared in the discussion section.

Keywords: disabilities, higher education, inclusive education, universal design for learning

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Authors: Dino Carpentras, Paul Maher, Caoimhe O'Reilly, Michael Quayle

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Opinion dynamics is dedicated to modeling the dynamic evolution of people's opinions. Models in this field are based on a micro-dynamic rule, which determines how people update their opinion when interacting. Despite the high number of new models (many of them based on new rules), little research has been dedicated to experimentally validate the rule. A few studies started bridging this literature gap by experimentally testing the rule. However, in these studies, participants are forced to express their opinion as a number instead of using natural language. Furthermore, some of these studies average data from experimental questions, without testing if differences existed between them. Indeed, it is possible that different topics could show different dynamics. For example, people may be more prone to accepting someone's else opinion regarding less polarized topics. In this work, we collected data from 200 participants on 5 unpolarized topics. Participants expressed their opinions using natural language ('agree' or 'disagree') and the certainty of their answer, expressed as a number between 1 and 10. To keep the interaction based on natural language, certainty was not shown to other participants. We then showed to the participant someone else's opinion on the same topic and, after a distraction task, we repeated the measurement. To produce data compatible with standard opinion dynamics models, we multiplied the opinion (encoded as agree=1 and disagree=-1) with the certainty to obtain a single 'continuous opinion' ranging from -10 to 10. By analyzing the topics independently, we observed that each one shows a different initial distribution. However, the dynamics (i.e., the properties of the opinion change) appear to be similar between all topics. This suggested that the same micro-dynamic rule could be applied to unpolarized topics. Another important result is that participants that change opinion tend to maintain similar levels of certainty. This is in contrast with typical micro-dynamics rules, where agents move to an average point instead of directly jumping to the opposite continuous opinion. As expected, in the data, we also observed the effect of social influence. This means that exposing someone with 'agree' or 'disagree' influenced participants to respectively higher or lower values of the continuous opinion. However, we also observed random variations whose effect was stronger than the social influence’s one. We even observed cases of people that changed from 'agree' to 'disagree,' even if they were exposed to 'agree.' This phenomenon is surprising, as, in the standard literature, the strength of the noise is usually smaller than the strength of social influence. Finally, we also built an opinion dynamics model from the data. The model was able to explain more than 80% of the data variance. Furthermore, by iterating the model, we were able to produce polarized states even starting from an unpolarized population. This experimental approach offers a way to test the micro-dynamic rule. This also allows us to build models which are directly grounded on experimental results.

Keywords: experimental validation, micro-dynamic rule, opinion dynamics, update rule

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Authors: Sahar Sohrabi

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The emergence of Cloud data centers has revolutionized the IT industry. Private Clouds in specific provide Cloud services for certain group of customers/businesses. In a real-time private Cloud each task that is given to the system has a deadline that desirably should not be violated. Scheduling tasks in a real-time private CLoud determine the way available resources in the system are shared among incoming tasks. The aim of the scheduling policy is to optimize the system outcome which for a real-time private Cloud can include: energy consumption, deadline violation, execution time and the number of host switches. Different scheduling policies can be used for scheduling. Each lead to a sub-optimal outcome in a certain settings of the system. A Bayesian Scheduling strategy is proposed for scheduling to further improve the system outcome. The Bayesian strategy showed to outperform all selected policies. It also has the flexibility in dealing with complex pattern of incoming task and has the ability to adapt.

Keywords: cloud computing, scheduling, real-time private cloud, bayesian

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Authors: Alan Wan

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In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Andrea ČopíKová

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Competency Based Management is a new approach to management, which solves organization’s challenges with complexity and with the aim to find and solve organization’s problems and learn how to avoid these in future. They teach the organizations to create, apart from the state of stability – that is temporary, vital organization, which is permanently able to utilize and profit from internal and external opportunities. The aim of this paper is to propose a process of competency model design, based on which a competency model for a financial department manager in a production company will be created. Competency models are very useful tool in many personnel processes in any organization. They are used for acquiring and selection of employees, designing training and development activities, employees’ evaluation, and they can be used as a guide for a career planning and as a tool for succession planning especially for managerial positions. When creating a competency model the method AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and quantitative pair-wise comparison (Saaty’s method) will be used; these methods belong among the most used methods for the determination of weights, and it is used in the AHP procedure. The introduction part of the paper consists of the research results pertaining to the use of competency model in practice and then the issue of competency and competency models is explained. The application part describes in detail proposed methodology for the creation of competency models, based on which the competency model for the position of financial department manager in a foreign manufacturing company, will be created. In the conclusion of the paper, the final competency model will be shown for above mentioned position. The competency model divides selected competencies into three groups that are managerial, interpersonal and functional. The model describes in detail individual levels of competencies, their target value (required level) and the level of importance.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, competency, competency model, quantitative pairwise comparison

Procedia PDF Downloads 244

Authors: Ying Han, Yuanxiang Chen, Yongtao Huang, Jia Fu, Kaile Li, Shangjing Lin, Jianguo Yu

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In long-haul and high-speed optical transmission system, the orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) signal suffers various linear and non-linear impairments. In recent years, researchers have proposed compensation schemes for specific impairment, and the effects are remarkable. However, different impairment compensation algorithms have caused an increase in transmission delay. With the widespread application of deep neural networks (DNN) in communication, multi-impairment compensation based on DNN will be a promising scheme. In this paper, we propose and apply DNN to compensate multi-impairment of 16-QAM coherent optical OFDM signal, thereby improving the performance of the transmission system. The trained DNN models are applied in the offline digital signal processing (DSP) module of the transmission system. The models can optimize the constellation mapping signals at the transmitter and compensate multi-impairment of the OFDM decoded signal at the receiver. Furthermore, the models reduce the peak to average power ratio (PAPR) of the transmitted OFDM signal and the bit error rate (BER) of the received signal. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme for 16-QAM Coherent Optical OFDM signal and demonstrate and analyze transmission performance in different transmission scenarios. The experimental results show that the PAPR and BER of the transmission system are significantly reduced after using the trained DNN. It shows that the DNN with specific loss function and network structure can optimize the transmitted signal and learn the channel feature and compensate for multi-impairment in fiber transmission effectively.

Keywords: coherent optical OFDM, deep neural network, multi-impairment compensation, optical transmission

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Authors: Jin Gang Lee, Hyun-Soo Lee, Moonseo Park

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The utilization of BIM and IFC allows project participants to collaborate across different areas by consistently sharing interoperable product information represented in a model. Comments or markups generated during the coordination process can be categorized as communication information, which can be shared in less standardized manner. It can be difficult to manage and reuse such information compared to the product information in a model. The present study proposes an interoperable coordination method using BCF (the BIM Collaboration Format) for managing and sharing the communication information during BIM based coordination process. A management function for coordination in the BIM collaboration system is developed to assess its ability to share the communication information in BIM collaboration projects. This approach systematically links communication information during the coordination process to the building model and serves as a type of storage system for retrieving knowledge created during BIM collaboration projects.

Keywords: design coordination, building information model, BIM collaboration format, industry foundation classes

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Authors: Chen-Yin Kuo, Yung-Hsin Lee

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Previous studies applying residual income valuation (RIV) model generally use panel data and single-equation model to forecast stock prices. Unlike these, this paper uses Taiwan longitudinal data to estimate multi-equation time-series models such as Vector Autoregressive (VAR), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and conduct out-of-sample forecasting. Further, this work assesses their forecasting performance by two instruments. In favor of extant research, the major finding shows that VECM outperforms other three models in forecasting for three stock sectors over entire horizons. It implies that an error correction term containing long-run information contributes to improve forecasting accuracy. Moreover, the pattern of composite shows that at longer horizon, VECM produces the greater reduction in errors, and performs substantially better than VAR.

Keywords: residual income valuation model, vector error correction model, out of sample forecasting, forecasting accuracy

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Authors: Sourabh Jain, Parul Madan

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Traffic noise pollution has become a challenging problem for all metro cities of India due to rapid urbanization, growing population and rising number of vehicles and transport development. In Delhi the prime source of noise pollution is vehicular traffic. In Delhi it is found that the ambient noise level (Leq) is exceeding the standard permissible value at all the locations. Noise barriers or enclosures are definitely useful in obtaining effective deduction of traffic noise disturbances in urbanized areas. US’s Federal Highway Administration Model (FHWA) and Calculation of Road Traffic Noise (CORTN) of UK are used to develop spread sheets for noise prediction. Spread sheets are also developed for evaluating effectiveness of existing boundary walls abutting houses in mitigating noise, redesigning them as noise barriers. Study was also carried out to examine the changes in noise level due to designed noise barrier by using both models FHWA and CORTN respectively. During the collection of various data it is found that receivers are located far away from road at Rithala and Moolchand sites and hence extra barrier height needed to meet prescribed limits was less as seen from calculations and most of the noise diminishes by propagation effect.On the basis of overall study and data analysis, it is concluded that FHWA and CORTN models under estimate noise levels. FHWA model predicted noise levels with an average percentage error of -7.33 and CORTN predicted with an average percentage error of -8.5. It was observed that at all sites noise levels at receivers were exceeding the standard limit of 55 dB. It was seen from calculations that existing walls are reducing noise levels. Average noise reduction due to walls at Rithala was 7.41 dB and at Panchsheel was 7.20 dB and lower amount of noise reduction was observed at Friend colony which was only 5.88. It was observed from analysis that Friends colony sites need much greater height of barrier. This was because of residential buildings abutting the road. At friends colony great amount of traffic was observed since it is national highway. At this site diminishing of noise due to propagation effect was very less.As FHWA and CORTN models were developed in excel programme, it eliminates laborious calculations of noise. There was no reflection correction in FHWA models as like in CORTN model.

Keywords: IFHWA, CORTN, Noise Sources, Noise Barriers

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Authors: Eva Nedeliakova, Juraj Camaj, Jaroslav Masek

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This contribution is focused on the methodology for identifying levels of quality and improving quality through new logistics model in railway transport. It is oriented on the application of dynamic quality models, which represent an innovative method of evaluation quality services. Through this conception, time factor, expected, and perceived quality in each moment of the transportation process within logistics chain can be taken into account. Various models describe the improvement of the quality which emphases the time factor throughout the whole transportation logistics chain. Quality of services in railway transport can be determined by the existing level of service quality, by detecting the causes of dissatisfaction employees but also customers, to uncover strengths and weaknesses. This new logistics model is able to recognize critical processes in logistic chain. It includes service quality rating that must respect its specific properties, which are unrepeatability, impalpability, their use right at the time they are provided and particularly changeability, which is significant factor in the conditions of rail transport as well. These peculiarities influence the quality of service regarding the constantly increasing requirements and that result in new ways of finding progressive attitudes towards the service quality rating.

Keywords: logistics model, quality, railway transport

Procedia PDF Downloads 568

Authors: Chad Goldsworthy, B. Rajeswari Matam

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The use of deep learning for species identification in camera trap images has revolutionised our ability to study, conserve and monitor species in a highly efficient and unobtrusive manner, with state-of-the-art models achieving accuracies surpassing the accuracy of manual human classification. The high imbalance of camera trap datasets, however, results in poor accuracies for minority (rare or endangered) species due to their relative insignificance to the overall model accuracy. This paper investigates the use of Focal Loss, in comparison to the traditional Cross Entropy Loss function, to improve the identification of minority species in the “255 Bird Species” dataset from Kaggle. The results show that, although Focal Loss slightly decreased the accuracy of the majority species, it was able to increase the F1-score by 0.06 and improve the identification of the bottom two, five and ten (minority) species by 37.5%, 15.7% and 10.8%, respectively, as well as resulting in an improved overall accuracy of 2.96%.

Keywords: convolutional neural networks, data imbalance, deep learning, focal loss, species classification, wildlife conservation

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Maryam Zarabian, Hector Guzman, Pedro Pereira-Almao, Abraham Fapojuwo

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Dry reforming of methane (DRM) has sparked significant industrial and scientific interest not only as a viable alternative for addressing the environmental concerns of two main contributors of the greenhouse effect, i.e., carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄), but also produces syngas, i.e., a mixture of hydrogen (H₂) and carbon monoxide (CO) utilized by a wide range of downstream processes as a feedstock for other chemical productions. In this study, we develop an AI-enable syngas production model to tackle the problem of achieving an equivalent H₂/CO ratio [1:1] with respect to the most efficient conversion. Firstly, the unsupervised density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSAN) algorithm removes outlier data points from the original experimental dataset. Then, random forest (RF) and deep neural network (DNN) models employ the error-free dataset to predict the DRM results. DNN models inherently would not be able to obtain accurate predictions without a huge dataset. To cope with this limitation, we employ reusing pre-trained layers’ approaches such as transfer learning and greedy layer-wise pretraining. Compared to the other deep models (i.e., pure deep model and transferred deep model), the greedy layer-wise pre-trained deep model provides the most accurate prediction as well as similar accuracy to the RF model with R² values 1.00, 0.999, 0.999, 0.999, 0.999, and 0.999 for the total outlet flow, H₂/CO ratio, H₂ yield, CO yield, CH₄ conversion, and CO₂ conversion outputs, respectively.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, dry reforming of methane, artificial neural network, deep learning, machine learning, transfer learning, greedy layer-wise pretraining

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Authors: Yifang Gong

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Pulse diagnosis is one of the most important diagnosis methods in traditional Chinese medicine. It is also the trickiest method to learn. It is known as that it can only to be sensed not explained. This becomes a serious threat to the survival of this diagnostic method. However, there are a large amount of experiences accumulated during the several thousand years of practice of Chinese doctors. A pulse pattern called 'Slippery pulse' is one of the indications of pregnancy. A simple fluid dynamic model is proposed to simulate the effects of the existence of a placenta. The placenta is modeled as an extra plenum in an extremely simplified fluid network model. It is found that because of the existence of the extra plenum, indeed the pulse pattern shows a secondary peak in one pulse period. As for the author’s knowledge, this work is the first time to show the link between Pulse diagnoses and basic physical principle. Key parameters which might affect the pattern are also investigated.

Keywords: Chinese medicine, flow network, pregnancy, pulse

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Authors: Maria L. McLeod

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This study examines the ways in which cancer patient narratives are portrayed and framed on the websites of three leading U.S. cancer care centers –The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York, and Seattle Cancer Care Alliance. Thirty patient stories, ten from each cancer center website blog, were analyzed using qualitative and quantitative textual analysis of unstructured data, documenting repeated use of specific metaphors and tropes while charting common themes and other elements of story structure and content. Patient narratives were coded using grounded theory as the basis for conducting emergent qualitative research. As part of a systematic, inductive approach to collecting and analyzing data, recurrent and unique themes were examined and compared in terms of positive and negative framing, patient agency, and institutional praise. All three of these cancer care centers are teaching hospitals with university affiliations, that emphasizes an evidence-based scientific approach to treatment that utilizes the latest research and cutting-edge techniques and technology. Thus, the use of anecdotal evidence presented in patient narratives could be perceived as being in conflict with this evidence-based model, as the patient stories are not an accurate representation of scientific outcomes related to developing cancer, cancer reoccurrence, or cancer outcomes. The representative patient narratives tend to exclude or downplay adverse responses to treatment, survival rates, integrative and/or complementary cancer treatments, cancer prevention and causes, and barriers to treatment, such as the limitation of insurance plans, costs of treatment, and/or other issues related to access, potentially contributing to false narratives and inaccurate notions of cancer prevention, cancer care treatment and the potential for a cure. Both quantitative and qualitative findings demonstrate that cancer patient stories featured on the blogsites of the nation’s top cancer care centers deemphasize patient agency and, instead, emphasize deference and gratitude toward the institutions where the featured patients received treatment. Along these lines, language choices reflect positive framing of the cancer experience. Accompanying portrait photos of healthy appearing subjects as well as positive-framed headlines, subheads, and pull quotes function similarly, reflecting hopeful, transformative experiences and outcomes over hardship and suffering. Although patient narratives include real, factual scientific details and descriptions of actual events, the stories lack references to more negative realities of cancer diagnosis and treatment. Instead, they emphasize the triumph of survival by which the cancer care center, in the savior/hero role, enables the patient’s success, represented as a cathartic medical journey.

Keywords: cancer framing, cancer stories, medical gaze, patient narratives

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Authors: Emily Stamm, Neil Smyth, Elizabeth O'Sullivan

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In Identity-Based Encryption (IBE), an identity, such as a username, email address, or domain name, acts as the public key. IBE consolidates the PKI by eliminating the repetitive process of requesting public keys for each message encryption. Two of the most popular schemes are Sakai-Kasahara (SAKKE), which is based on elliptic curve pairings, and the Ducas, Lyubashevsky, and Prest lattice scheme (DLP- Lattice), which is based on quantum-secure lattice cryptography. In or- der to embed the schemes in a standard enterprise setting, both schemes are implemented as shared system libraries and integrated into a REST service that functions at the enterprise level. The performance of both schemes as libraries and services is compared, and the practicalities of implementation and application are discussed. Our performance results indicate that although SAKKE has the smaller key and ciphertext sizes, DLP-Lattice is significantly faster overall and we recommend it for most enterprise use cases.

Keywords: identity-based encryption, post-quantum cryptography, lattice-based cryptography, IBE

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: W. Sriwattanapongse, S. Prasitwattanaseree, S. Wongtrangan

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The transportation accidents mortality is a major problem that leads to loss of human lives, and economic. The objective was to identify patterns of statistical modeling for estimating mortality rates due to transportation accidents in Thailand by using data from 2000 to 2009. The data was taken from the death certificate, vital registration database. The number of deaths and mortality rates were computed classifying by gender, age, year and region. There were 114,790 cases of transportation accidents deaths. The highest average age-specific transport accident mortality rate is 3.11 per 100,000 per year in males, Southern region and the lowest average age-specific transport accident mortality rate is 1.79 per 100,000 per year in females, North-East region. Linear, poisson and negative binomial models were chosen for fitting statistical model. Among the models fitted, the best was chosen based on the analysis of deviance and AIC. The negative binomial model was clearly appropriate fitted.

Keywords: transportation accidents, mortality, modeling, analysis of deviance

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Authors: M. Ezzat, Y. Zaghloul, T. Sorour, A. Hefny, M. Eid

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Ultimate capacity of large diameter bored piles is usually determined from pile loading tests as recommended by several international codes and foundation design standards. However, loading of this type of piles till achieving apparent failure is practically seldom. In this paper, numerical analyses are carried out to simulate load test of a large diameter bored pile performed at the location of Alzey highway bridge project (Germany). Test results of pile load settlement relationship till failure as well as results of the base and shaft resistances are available. Apparent failure was indicated in this test by the significant increase of the induced settlement during the last load increment applied on the pile head. Measurements of this pile load test are used to assess the quality of the numerical models investigated. Three different material soil models are implemented in the analyses: Mohr coulomb (MC), Soft soil (SS), and Modified Mohr coulomb (MMC). Very good agreement is obtained between the field measured settlement and the calculated settlement using the MMC model. Results of analysis showed also that the MMC constitutive model is superior to MC, and SS models in predicting the ultimate base and shaft resistances of the large diameter bored pile. After calibrating the numerical model, behavior of large diameter bored piles under axial loads is discussed and the formation of the plastic zone around the pile is explored. Results obtained showed that the plastic zone below the base of the pile at failure extended laterally to about four times the pile diameter and vertically to about three times the pile diameter.

Keywords: ultimate capacity, large diameter bored piles, plastic zone, failure, pile load test

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Authors: Nadjib Melkemi, Salah Belaidi

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Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) studies have been performed on nineteen molecules of 1,2-dithiole-3-thione analogues. The compounds used are the potent inducers of enzymes involved in the maintenance of reduced glutathione pools as well as phase-2 enzymes important to electrophile detoxication. A multiple linear regression (MLR) procedure was used to design the relationships between molecular descriptor and detoxication properties of the 1,2-dithiole-3-thione derivatives. The predictivity of the model was estimated by cross-validation with the leave-one-out method. Our results suggest a QSAR model based of the following descriptors: qS2, qC3, qC5, qS6, DM, Pol, log P, MV, SAG, HE and EHOMO for the specific activity of quinone reductase; qS1, qS2, qC3, qC4, qC5, qS6, DM, Pol, logP, MV, SAG, HE and EHOMO for the production of growth hormone. To confirm the predictive power of the models, an external set of molecules was used. High correlation between experimental and predicted activity values was observed, indicating the validation and the good quality of the derived QSAR models.

Keywords: QSAR, quinone reductase activity, production of growth hormone, MLR

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Authors: Salisu Adamu Abdullahi, Yusuf Abdullahi Manu

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Nigeria returned to a democratically elected government on May 29, 1999. This signaled the beginning of the journey into the Fourth Republic. The return has received popular endorsement by the electorates as the level of enthusiasm was high due to the yearnings and expectations by the electorate that democracy will bring about the much-desired change required by the general mass. As democracy would allow for popular participation through periodic elections and so on. The paper examines democracy, leadership, and challenges of good governance in Nigerias Fourth Republic. It utilizes secondary source of data and content analysis as a methodology. It argues that Nigerias practice of democracy over the years is marred by flagrant abuse of the principles of good governance by the ruling elite. This has posed threats to the survival of democracy due to non-adherence to one of the cardinal principles of democracy which is good governance. The paper recommends among others that the anti-corruption law is amended in such a way that death penalties be issued to those found wanting by the law.

Keywords: democracy, democratic consolidation, challenges, good governance

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Authors: Sham Kidane, Fitsum Gaim, Ibrahim Abdella, Sirak Asmerom, Yoel Ghebrihiwot, Simon Mulugeta, Natnael Ambassager

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The lack of annotated datasets is a bottleneck to the progress of NLP in low-resourced languages. The work presented here consists of large-scale annotated datasets and models for the named entity recognition (NER) system for the Tigrinya language. Our manually constructed corpus comprises over 340K words tagged for NER, with over 118K of the tokens also having parts-of-speech (POS) tags, annotated with 12 distinct classes of entities, represented using several types of tagging schemes. We conducted extensive experiments covering convolutional neural networks and transformer models; the highest performance achieved is 88.8% weighted F1-score. These results are especially noteworthy given the unique challenges posed by Tigrinya’s distinct grammatical structure and complex word morphologies. The system can be an essential building block for the advancement of NLP systems in Tigrinya and other related low-resourced languages and serve as a bridge for cross-referencing against higher-resourced languages.

Keywords: Tigrinya NER corpus, TiBERT, TiRoBERTa, BiLSTM-CRF

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Authors: Vijay Pal Singh, Yogesh Chandra Kotiyal

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Structures are a combination of various load carrying members which transfer the loads to the foundation from the superstructure safely. At the design stage, the loading of the structure is defined and appropriate material choices are made based upon their properties, mainly related to strength. The strength of materials kept on reducing with time because of many factors like environmental exposure and deformation caused by unpredictable external loads. Hence, to predict the strength of materials used in structures, various techniques are used. Among these techniques, Non-Destructive Techniques (NDT) are the one that can be used to predict the strength without damaging the structure. In the present study, the compressive strength of concrete has been predicted using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The predicted strength was compared with the experimentally obtained actual compressive strength of concrete and equations were developed for different models. A good co-relation has been obtained between the predicted strength by these models and experimental values. Further, the co-relation has been developed using two NDT techniques for prediction of strength by regression analysis. It was found that the percentage error has been reduced between the predicted strength by using combined techniques in place of single techniques.

Keywords: rebound, ultra-sonic pulse, penetration, ANN, NDT, regression

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Authors: Ishapathik Das, Sumen Sen, N. Rao Chaganty, Pooja Sengupta

Abstract:

Dependent multivariate count data occur in several research studies. These data can be modeled by a multivariate Poisson or Negative binomial distribution constructed using copulas. However, when some of the counts are inflated, that is, the number of observations in some cells are much larger than other cells, then the copula based multivariate Poisson (or Negative binomial) distribution may not fit well and it is not an appropriate statistical model for the data. There is a need to modify or adjust the multivariate distribution to account for the inflated frequencies. In this article, we consider the situation where the frequencies of two cells are higher compared to the other cells, and develop a doubly inflated multivariate Poisson distribution function using multivariate Gaussian copula. We also discuss procedures for regression on covariates for the doubly inflated multivariate count data. For illustrating the proposed methodologies, we present a real data containing bivariate count observations with inflations in two cells. Several models and linear predictors with log link functions are considered, and we discuss maximum likelihood estimation to estimate unknown parameters of the models.

Keywords: copula, Gaussian copula, multivariate distributions, inflated distributios

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Authors: Mohammad A. Alia

Abstract:

With the rapid evolution of the internet applications, cloud computing becomes one of today’s hottest research areas due to its ability to reduce costs associated with computing. Cloud is, therefore, increasing flexibility and scalability for computing services in the internet. Cloud computing is Internet based computing due to shared resources and information which are dynamically delivered to consumers. As cloud computing share resources via the open network, hence cloud outsourcing is vulnerable to attack. Therefore, this paper will explore data security of cloud computing by implementing chaotic cryptography. The proposal scenario develops a problem transformation technique that enables customers to secretly transform their information. This work proposes the chaotic cryptographic algorithms have been applied to enhance the security of the cloud computing accessibility. However, the proposed scenario is secure, easy and straightforward process. The chaotic encryption and digital signature systems ensure the security of the proposed scenario. Though, the choice of the key size becomes crucial to prevent a brute force attack.

Keywords: chaos, cloud computing, security, cryptography

Procedia PDF Downloads 345

Authors: C. Guven, M. Tufekci, E. Bayik, O. Gedik, M. Tas

Abstract:

A sliding door system is used in commercial vehicles and passenger cars to allow a larger unobstructed access to the interior for loading and unloading. The movement of a sliding door on vehicle body is ensured by mechanisms and tracks having special cross-section which is manufactured by roll forming and stretch bending process. There are three tracks and three mechanisms which are called upper, central and lower on a sliding door system. There are static requirements as strength on different directions, rigidity for mechanisms, and door drop off, door sag; dynamic requirements as high energy slam opening-closing and durability requirement to validate these products. In addition, there is a kinematic requirement to find out force values from door handle during manual operating. In this study, finite element analysis and physical test results which are realized for sliding door systems will be shared comparatively.

Keywords: finite element analysis, sliding door, experimental, verification, vehicle tests

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: Karina Reiter, Stefan Dullinger, Christoph Plutzar, Dietmar Moser

Abstract:

Due to population growth and changing patterns of production and consumption, the demand for natural resources and, as a result, the pressure on Earth’s ecosystems are growing. Biodiversity mapping can be a useful tool for assessing species endangerment or detecting hotspots of extinction risks. This paper explores the benefits of using the change in trophic energy flows as a consequence of the human alteration of the biosphere in biodiversity mapping. To this end, multiple linear regression models were developed to explain species richness in areas where there is no human influence (i.e. wilderness) for three taxonomic groups (birds, mammals, amphibians). The models were then applied to predict (I) potential global species richness using potential natural vegetation (NPPpot) and (II) global ‘actual’ species richness after biomass appropriation using NPP remaining in ecosystems after harvest (NPPeco). By calculating the difference between predicted potential and predicted actual species numbers, maps of estimated species richness loss were generated. Results show that biomass appropriation for human use can indeed be linked to biodiversity loss. Areas for which the models predicted high species loss coincide with areas where species endangerment and extinctions are recorded to be particularly high by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN). Furthermore, the analysis revealed that while the species distribution maps of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species used for this research can determine hotspots of biodiversity loss in large parts of the world, the classification system for threatened and extinct species needs to be revised to better reflect local risks of extinction.

Keywords: biodiversity loss, biomass harvest, human appropriation of net primary production, species richness

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Authors: Carla Michelle Gastelum Knight

Abstract:

In an era where teacher educators and student teachers have almost unrestricted access to all kinds of sources through the internet, a research project carried out with a group of student-teachers has revealed how self-made videos are an exciting new way to motivate and engage students. The project was carried out at Universidad de Sonora, a public university in Northern Mexico, where 39 students of the Bachelor in Arts in English Language Teaching (B.A. in ELT) programme participated creating their own videos. In the process, they worked collaboratively, they exploited their creativity, they were highly motivated and showed more interest in the subject. The videos were shared in a private YouTube channel where students had the opportunity to review their peers’ work and where videos are available at any time for later viewing. This experience has led course instructor to face the challenge of planning and designing meaningful tasks that can and to find ways of exploiting the use of these resources for learning and training purposes.

Keywords: self-made materials, student-teachers, teacher education programme, teacher training

Procedia PDF Downloads 233