Search results for: capability maturity model integration

Authors: Nataliya Venelinova

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The paper proposes a new interdisciplinary model of reconsidering the role of mass communication effects by coverage of terrorism. The idea of 4P model is based on the synergy, created by the information strategy of threat, predominantly used by terrorist groups, the effects of mediating the symbolic action of the terrorist attacks or the taking of responsibility of any attacks, and the reshaped public perception for security after the attacks being mass communicated. The paper defines the mass communication cycle of terrorism, which leads not only to re-agenda setting of the societies, but also spirally amplifying the effect of propagating fears by over-informing on terrorism attacks. This finally results in the outlining of the so called 4P-model of information terrorism: mass propaganda, panic, paranoia and pandemic.

Keywords: information terrorism, mass communication cycle, public perception, security

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Authors: Hung-Chi Chang

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For an extended EPQ model with random yield, the existent study revealed that both the disaggregating and consolidating shipment policies for the imperfect quality items are independent of holding cost, and recommended a model with economic benefit by comparing the least total cost for each of the three models investigated. To better capture the real situation, we generalize the existent study to include different holding costs for perfect and imperfect quality items. Through analysis, we show that the above shipment policies are dependent on holding costs. Furthermore, we derive a simple decision rule solely based on the thresholds of problem parameters to select a superior model. The results are illustrated analytically and numerically.

Keywords: consolidating shipments, disaggregating shipments, EPQ, imperfect quality, inventory

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Authors: D. R. T. N. K. Dissanayake, H. M. S. K. Herath, H. K. S. G. Gunadasa, P. Weerasinghe

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Luffa is a tropical and subtropical vegetable, belongs to family Cucurbiteceae. It is predominantly monoecious in sex expression and provides an ample scope for utilization of hybrid vigor. Hybrid varieties develop through open pollination, produce higher yields due to its hybrid vigor. Naga F1 hybrid variety consists number of desirable traits other than higher yield such as strong and vigorous plants, fruits with long deep ridges, attractive green color fruits ,better fruit weight, length and early maturity compared to the local Luffa cultivars. Unavailability of fertilizer recommendations for hybrid cucurbit vegetables leads to an excess fertilizer application causing a vital environmental issue that creates undesirable impacts on nature and the human health. Main Objective of this research is to determine effect of different nitrogen and potassium fertilizer rates on growth and yield of Naga F1 Variety. Other objectives are, to evaluate specific growth parameters and yield, to identify the optimum nitrogen and potassium fertilizer levels based on growth and yield of hybrid Luffa variety. As well as to formulate the general fertilizer recommendation for hybrid Luffa -Naga F1 variety.

Keywords: hybrid, nitrogen, phosphorous, potassium

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Authors: Watchareeporn Chaimongkol

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In this paper, we compare the statistical measures accuracy of composite forecasting model to estimate automobile customer demand in Thailand. A modified simple exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) forecasting model is built to estimate customer demand of passenger cars, instead of using information of historical sales data. Our model takes into account special characteristic of the Thai automobile market such as sales promotion, advertising and publicity, petrol price, and interest rate for loan. We evaluate our forecasting model by comparing forecasts with actual data using six accuracy measurements, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), geometric mean absolute error (GMAE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE), median relative absolute error (MdRAE), and geometric mean relative absolute error (GMRAE).

Keywords: composite forecasting, simple exponential smoothing model, autoregressive integrate moving average model selection, accuracy measurements

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty

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Authors: Aijaz A. Shaikh, Richard Glavee-Geo, Heikki Karjaluoto

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Adoption of Information Systems (IS) is receiving increasing attention such that its implications have been closely monitored and studied by the IS management community, industry and professional gatekeepers. Building on previous research regarding the adoption of technology, this paper develops and validates an integrated model of the adoption of mobile banking. The model originates from the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). This paper intends to offer a preliminary scrutiny of the antecedents of the adoption of mobile banking services in the context of a developing country. Data was collected from Pakistan. The findings showed that an integrated TAM and TPB model greatly explains the adoption intention of mobile banking; and perceived behavioural control and its antecedents play a significant role in predicting adoption Theoretical and managerial implications of findings are presented and discussed.

Keywords: developing country, mobile banking service adoption, technology acceptance model, theory of planned behavior

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Authors: Mansoureh Naderipour, Susan Bastani, Mohammad Fazel Zarandi

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Predicting links that may occur in the future and missing links in social networks is an attractive problem in social network analysis. Granular computing can help us to model the relationships between human-based system and social sciences in this field. In this paper, we present a model based on granular computing approach and Type-2 fuzzy logic to predict links regarding nodes’ activity and the relationship between two nodes. Our model is tested on collaboration networks. It is found that the accuracy of prediction is significantly higher than the Type-1 fuzzy and crisp approach.

Keywords: social network, link prediction, granular computing, type-2 fuzzy sets

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Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha

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The oil refining industry, significant in its energy consumption and carbon emissions, faces increasing pressure to reduce its environmental footprint. This article explores the application of energy efficiency and sustainability analytics as crucial tools for reducing carbon emissions in oil refineries. Through a comprehensive review of current practices and technologies, this study highlights innovative analytical approaches that can significantly enhance energy efficiency. We focus on the integration of advanced data analytics, including machine learning and predictive modeling, to optimize process controls and energy use. These technologies are examined for their potential to not only lower energy consumption but also reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, the article discusses the implementation of sustainability analytics to monitor and improve environmental performance across various operational facets of oil refineries. We explore case studies where predictive analytics have successfully identified opportunities for reducing energy use and emissions, providing a template for industry-wide application. The challenges associated with deploying these analytics, such as data integration and the need for skilled personnel, are also addressed. The paper concludes with strategic recommendations for oil refineries aiming to enhance their sustainability practices through the adoption of targeted analytics. By implementing these measures, refineries can achieve significant reductions in carbon emissions, aligning with global environmental goals and regulatory requirements.

Keywords: energy efficiency, sustainability analytics, carbon emissions, oil refineries, data analytics, machine learning, predictive modeling, process optimization, greenhouse gas reduction, environmental performance

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Authors: Hooman Fallah, Fatemeh Karampour

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Low salinity water (LSW) has been proved to be efficacious because of low cost and ability to change properties of reservoir rock and fluids and their interactions toward desired condition. These include change in capillary pressure, interfacial tension, wettability tendency, permeability and pore sizing. This enhanced oil recovery (EOR) method has been studied so far for evaluating capability of inducing recent mentioned parameters and the mechanisms of its operation and applicabi-lity in different fields. This study investigates the effect of three types of salts (including Ca2+, Mg2+, and SO42-) on wettability and final oil recovery in labratory.

Keywords: low salinity water, smart water, wettability alteration, carbonated reservoir

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Authors: Joeri N. Aulman

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In the remote Indian region of Gulbarga a case study of lean airport infrastructure development is getting ‘cast in stone’; In April the first turbo-props will land, and the optimized terminal building will process its first passengers, using minimal square meters in a facility that is based on a complete dress-down of the core operational processes. Yet the solution that resulted from this case study has such elegance in its simplicity that it has emboldened the local administration to invest in its construction and thus secure this remote region’s connectivity to India’s growth story. This paper aims to provide further background to the Gulbarga case study and its relevance to remote region connectivity, covering the demand that was identified, its practical application and its regulatory context and relevance for today’s airport manager and local administrators. This embodies the scope of the paper. In summary, the paper will give airport managers and regional authorities an overview and background to innovative case studies of lean airport infrastructure developments which combine both optimized CAPEX and running costs/OPEX without losing sight of the aspirational nature of up and coming remote regions; a truly sustainable model.

Keywords: airport, CAPEX, lean, sustainable, air connectivity, remote regions

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Authors: V. Rangarajan, Priyanka Kaushal

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This study investigates the effectiveness of a typical Earth Air Heat Exchanger (EATHE) for energy efficient space cooling in an urban environment typified by space and soil-related constraints that preclude an optimal design. It involves the development of a three-dimensional numerical transient model that is validated by measurements at a live site in India. It is found that the model accurately predicts the soil temperatures at various depths as well as the EATHE outlet air temperature. The study shows that such an EATHE, even when designed under constraints, does provide effective space cooling especially during the hot months of the year.

Keywords: earth air heat exchanger (EATHE), India, MATLAB, model, simulation

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Authors: Seyed Sobhan Alvani, Mohammad Gohari

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By developing cities and increasing the population, traffic congestion has become a vital problem. Due to this crisis, urban designers try to present solutions to decrease this difficulty. On the other hand, predicting the model with perfect accuracy is essential for solution-providing. The current study presents a model based on artificial intelligence which can predict traffic index based on city population, growth rate, and area. The accuracy of the model was evaluated, which is acceptable and it is around 90%. Thus, urban designers and planners can employ it for predicting traffic index in the future to provide strategies.

Keywords: traffic index, population growth rate, cities wideness, artificial neural network

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Authors: Zeina Merabi, Arij Dao

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The temporal order of information processing in the brain is an important code in many acoustic signals, including speech, music, and animal vocalizations. Despite its significance, surprisingly little is known about its underlying cellular mechanisms and network manifestations. In the songbird telencephalic nucleus HVC, a subset of neurons shows temporal combination sensitivity (TCS). These neurons show a high temporal specificity, responding differently to distinct patterns of spectral elements and their combinations. HVC neuron types include basal-ganglia-projecting HVCX, forebrain-projecting HVCRA, and interneurons (HVC¬INT), each exhibiting distinct cellular, electrophysiological and functional properties. In this work, we develop conductance-based neural network models connecting the different classes of HVC neurons via different wiring scenarios, aiming to explore possible neural mechanisms that orchestrate the combination sensitivity property exhibited by HVCX, as well as replicating in vivo firing patterns observed when TCS neurons are presented with various auditory stimuli. The ionic and synaptic currents for each class of neurons that are presented in our networks and are based on pharmacological studies, rendering our networks biologically plausible. We present for the first time several realistic scenarios in which the different types of HVC neurons can interact to produce this behavior. The different networks highlight neural mechanisms that could potentially help to explain some aspects of combination sensitivity, including 1) interplay between inhibitory interneurons’ activity and the post inhibitory firing of the HVCX neurons enabled by T-type Ca2+ and H currents, 2) temporal summation of synaptic inputs at the TCS site of opposing signals that are time-and frequency- dependent, and 3) reciprocal inhibitory and excitatory loops as a potent mechanism to encode information over many milliseconds. The result is a plausible network model characterizing auditory processing in HVC. Our next step is to test the predictions of the model.

Keywords: combination sensitivity, songbirds, neural networks, spatiotemporal integration

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Authors: Samain Sabrin, Joshua Pratt, Joshua Bryk, Maryam Karimi

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Globally, extreme heat events have led to a surge in the number of heat-related moralities. These incidents are further exacerbated in high-density population centers due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Varieties of anthropogenic activities such as unsupervised land surface modifications, expansion of impervious areas, and lack of use of vegetation are all contributors to an increase in the amount of heat flux trapped by an urban canopy which intensifies the UHI effect. This project aims to propose a systematic approach to measure the impact of air quality and increased temperature based on urban morphology in the selected metropolitan cities. This project will measure the impact of build environment for urban and regional planning using human biometeorological evaluations (mean radiant temperature, Tmrt). We utilized the Rayman model (capable of calculating short and long wave radiation fluxes affecting the human body) to estimate the Tmrt in an urban environment incorporating location and height of buildings and trees as a supplemental tool in urban planning, and street design. Our current results suggest a strong correlation between building height and increased surface temperature in megacities. This model will help with; 1. Quantify the impacts of the built environment and surface properties on surrounding temperature, 2. Identify priority urban neighborhoods by analyzing Tmrt and air quality data at pedestrian level, 3. Characterizing the need for urban green infrastructure or better urban planning- maximizing the cooling benefit from existing Urban Green Infrastructure (UGI), and 4. Developing a hierarchy of streets for new UGI integration and propose new UGI based on site characteristics and cooling potential.

Keywords: air quality, heat mitigation, human-biometeorological indices, increased temperature, mean radiant temperature, radiation flux, sustainable development, thermal comfort, urban canopy, urban planning

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Authors: Abdalla Manur, Daniel Offin, Alessandro Arsie

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In this paper, we study the extension of the minimizing equal mass parallelogram solutions which was derived by Chen in 2001. Chen’s solution was minimizing for one quarter of the period [0; T], where numerical integration had been used in his proof. This paper focuses on extending the minimization property to intervals of time [0; 2T] and [0; 4T].

Keywords: action, Hamiltoian, N-body, symmetry

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Authors: Souad Romdhane, Lotfi Belkacem

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When referring to actuarial analysis of lifetime, only models accounting for observable risk factors have been developed. Within this context, Cox proportional hazards model (CPH model) is commonly used to assess the effects of observable covariates as gender, age, smoking habits, on the hazard rates. These covariates may fail to fully account for the true lifetime interval. This may be due to the existence of another random variable (frailty) that is still being ignored. The aim of this paper is to examine the shared frailty issue in the Cox proportional hazard model by including two different parametric forms of frailty into the hazard function. Four estimated methods are used to fit them. The performance of the parameter estimates is assessed and compared between the classical Cox model and these frailty models through a real-life data set from the Quebec Pension Plan and then using a more general simulation study. This performance is investigated in terms of the bias of point estimates and their empirical standard errors in both fixed and random effect parts. Both the simulation and the real dataset studies showed differences between classical Cox model and shared frailty model.

Keywords: life insurance-pension plan, survival analysis, risk factors, cox proportional hazards model, multivariate failure-time data, shared frailty, simulations study

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Authors: Riccardo Fratini, Riccardo Santini, Jacopo Serafini, Massimo Gennaretti, Stefano Panzieri

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This paper presents a nonlinear differential model, for a three-bladed horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) suited for control applications. It is based on a 8-dofs, lumped parameters structural dynamics coupled with a quasi-steady sectional aerodynamics. In particular, using the Euler-Lagrange Equation (Energetic Variation approach), the authors derive, and successively validate, such model. For the derivation of the aerodynamic model, the Greenbergs theory, an extension of the theory proposed by Theodorsen to the case of thin airfoils undergoing pulsating flows, is used. Specifically, in this work, the authors restricted that theory under the hypothesis of low perturbation reduced frequency k, which causes the lift deficiency function C(k) to be real and equal to 1. Furthermore, the expressions of the aerodynamic loads are obtained using the quasi-steady strip theory (Hodges and Ormiston), as a function of the chordwise and normal components of relative velocity between flow and airfoil Ut, Up, their derivatives, and section angular velocity ε˙. For the validation of the proposed model, the authors carried out open and closed-loop simulations of a 5 MW HAWT, characterized by radius R =61.5 m and by mean chord c = 3 m, with a nominal angular velocity Ωn = 1.266rad/sec. The first analysis performed is the steady state solution, where a uniform wind Vw = 11.4 m/s is considered and a collective pitch angle θ = 0.88◦ is imposed. During this step, the authors noticed that the proposed model is intrinsically periodic due to the effect of the wind and of the gravitational force. In order to reject this periodic trend in the model dynamics, the authors propose a collective repetitive control algorithm coupled with a PD controller. In particular, when the reference command to be tracked and/or the disturbance to be rejected are periodic signals with a fixed period, the repetitive control strategies can be applied due to their high precision, simple implementation and little performance dependency on system parameters. The functional scheme of a repetitive controller is quite simple and, given a periodic reference command, is composed of a control block Crc(s) usually added to an existing feedback control system. The control block contains and a free time-delay system eτs in a positive feedback loop, and a low-pass filter q(s). It should be noticed that, while the time delay term reduces the stability margin, on the other hand the low pass filter is added to ensure stability. It is worth noting that, in this work, the authors propose a phase shifting for the controller and the delay system has been modified as e^(−(T−γk)), where T is the period of the signal and γk is a phase shifting of k samples of the same periodic signal. It should be noticed that, the phase shifting technique is particularly useful in non-minimum phase systems, such as flexible structures. In fact, using the phase shifting, the iterative algorithm could reach the convergence also at high frequencies. Notice that, in our case study, the shifting of k samples depends both on the rotor angular velocity Ω and on the rotor azimuth angle Ψ: we refer to this controller as a spatial repetitive controller. The collective repetitive controller has also been coupled with a C(s) = PD(s), in order to dampen oscillations of the blades. The performance of the spatial repetitive controller is compared with an industrial PI controller. In particular, starting from wind speed velocity Vw = 11.4 m/s the controller is asked to maintain the nominal angular velocity Ωn = 1.266rad/s after an instantaneous increase of wind speed (Vw = 15 m/s). Then, a purely periodic external disturbance is introduced in order to stress the capabilities of the repetitive controller. The results of the simulations show that, contrary to a simple PI controller, the spatial repetitive-PD controller has the capability to reject both external disturbances and periodic trend in the model dynamics. Finally, the nominal value of the angular velocity is reached, in accordance with results obtained with commercial software for a turbine of the same type.

Keywords: wind turbines, aeroelasticity, repetitive control, periodic systems

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Authors: Tannia Vindel, Angel Matute, Erik Elvir, Kelvin Santos

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Currently in Honduras, is been incentivized the generation of energy using renewable fonts, such as: hydroelectricity, wind power, biomass and, more recently with the strongest growth, photovoltaic energy. In July 2015 were installed 455.2 MW of photovoltaic energy, increasing by 24% the installed capacity of the national interconnected system existing in 2014, according the National Energy Company (NEC), that made possible reduce the thermoelectric dependency of the system. Given the good results of those large-scale photovoltaic plants, arises the question: is it interesting for the distribution utility and for the consumers the integration of photovoltaic systems in micro-scale in the urban and rural areas? To answer that question has been researched the insertion of photovoltaic energy in the residential sector in Tegucigalpa and Comayagüela (Central District), Honduras to determine the technical and economic viability. Francisco Morazán department, according the National Statistics Institute (NSI), in 2001 had more than 180,000 houses with power service. Tegucigalpa, department and Honduras capital, and Comayagüela, both, have the highest population density in the region, with 1,300,000 habitants in 2014 (NSI). The residential sector in the south-central region of Honduras represents a high percentage being 49% of total consumption, according with NEC in 2014; where 90% of this sector consumes in a range of 0 to 300 kWh / month. All this, in addition to the high level of losses in the transmission and distribution systems, 31.3% in 2014, and the availability of an annual average solar radiation of 5.20 kWh/(m2∙day) according to the NASA, suggests the feasibility of the implementation of photovoltaic systems as a solution to give a level of independency to the households, and besides could be capable of injecting the non-used energy to the grid. The capability of exchange of energy with the grid could make the photovoltaic systems acquisition more affordable to the consumers, because of the compensation energy programs or other kinds of incentives that could be created. Technical viability of the photovoltaic systems insertion has been analyzed, considering the solar radiation monthly average to determine the monthly average of energy that would be generated with the technology accessible locally and the effects of the injection of the energy locally generated on the grid. In addition, the economic viability has been analyzed too, considering the photovoltaic systems high costs, costs of the utility, location and monthly energy consumption requirements of the families. It was found that the inclusion of photovoltaic systems in Tegucigalpa and Comayagüela could decrease in 6 MW the demand for the region if 100% of the households use photovoltaic systems, which acquisition may be more accessible with the help of government incentives and/or the application of energy exchange programs.

Keywords: grid connected, photovoltaic, residential, technical analysis

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Authors: Olivier Chaigneau, Damianos Oikonomidis, Marie-Cecile Delmas

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GAMBAS (Galileo Advanced features for the Maritime domain: Breakthrough Applications for Safety and security) is a project funded by the European Space Program Agency (EUSPA) aiming at identifying the search-and-rescue and ship security alert system needs for maritime users (including operators and fishing stakeholders) and developing operational concepts to answer these needs. The general objective of the GAMBAS project is to support the deployment of Galileo exclusive features in the maritime domain in order to improve safety and security at sea, detection of illegal activities and associated surveillance means, resilience to natural and human-induced emergency situations, and develop, integrate, demonstrate, standardize and disseminate these new associated capabilities. The project aims to demonstrate: improvement of the SAR (Search And Rescue) and SSAS (Ship Security Alert System) detection and response to maritime distress through the integration of new features into the beacon for SSAS in terms of cost optimization, user-friendly aspects, integration of Galileo and OS NMA (Open Service Navigation Message Authentication) reception for improved authenticated localization performance and reliability, and at sea triggering capabilities, optimization of the responsiveness of RCCs (Rescue Co-ordination Centre) towards the distress situations affecting vessels, the adaptation of the MCCs (Mission Control Center) and MEOLUT (Medium Earth Orbit Local User Terminal) to the data distribution of SSAS alerts.

Keywords: Galileo new advanced features, maritime, safety, security

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Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

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This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson innovations, conditional maximum likelihood, CML

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Authors: Jana Gutierez Chvalkovska, Michal Mejstrik, Matej Urban

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There are pending discussions over the mapping of country export potential in order to refocus export strategy of firms and its evidence-based promotion by the Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) and other permitted vehicles of governments. In this paper we develop our version of an applied model that offers “stepwise” elimination of unattractive markets. We modify and calibrate the model for the particular features of the Czech Republic and specific pilot cases where we apply an individual approach to each sector.

Keywords: export strategy, modeling export, calibration, export promotion

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Authors: Luis E. Zapata, Sergio Ruiz, María F. Mantilla, Jhon A. Villamizar

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Sand as fine aggregate for concrete production needs a feasible substitute due to several environmental issues. In this work, a study of the behavior of self-compacting concrete mixtures under replacement of sand by iron slag from 0.0% to 50.0% of weight and variations of water/cementitious material ratio between 0.3 and 0.5 is presented. Control fresh state tests of Slump flow, T500, J-ring and L-box were determined. In the hardened state, compressive strength was determined and optimization from response surface analysis was performed. The study of the variables in the hardened state was developed based on inferential statistical analyses using central composite design methodology and posterior analyses of variance (ANOVA). An increase in the compressive strength up to 50% higher than control mixtures at 7, 14, and 28 days of maturity was the most relevant result regarding the presence of iron slag as replacement of natural sand. Considering the obtained result, it is possible to infer that iron slag is an acceptable alternative replacement material of the natural fine aggregate to be used in structural concrete.

Keywords: ANOVA, iron slag, response surface analysis, self-compacting concrete

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Authors: Enrique Barbieri

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The basic disease-spread model described by three states denoting the susceptible (S), infectious (I), and removed (recovered and deceased) (R) sub-groups of the total population N, or SIR model, has been considered. Heuristic mitigating action profiles of the pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical types may be developed in a control design setting for the purpose of reducing the transmission rate or improving the recovery rate parameters in the model. Even though the transmission and recovery rates are not control inputs in the traditional sense, a linear observer and feedback controller can be tuned to generate an asymptotic estimate of the transmission rate for a linearized, discrete-time version of the SIR model. Then, a set of mitigating actions is suggested to steer the basic reproduction number toward unity, in which case the disease does not spread, and the infected population state does not suffer from multiple waves. The special case of piecewise constant transmission rate is described and applied to a seventh-order SEIQRDP model, which segments the population into four additional states. The offline simulations in discrete time may be used to produce heuristic policies implemented by public health and government organizations.

Keywords: control of SIR, observer, SEIQRDP, disease spread

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Authors: S. Benbellil-Tafoughalt, J. M. Koene

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Growth strategies are often plastic and influenced by environmental conditions. Terrestrial gastropods are particularly affected by seasonal and climatic variables, and growth rate and size at maturity are key traits in their life history. Therefore, we investigated juvenile growth of Helix aperta snails under four combinations of temperature and photoperiod using two sets of young snails, born in the laboratory from adults collected in either the autumn (aestivating snails) or spring (active snails). Parental snails were collected from Bakaro (Northeastern Algeria). Higher temperature increased adult size and reduced time to reproduction. Long day photoperiod also increased the final body weight, but had no effect on the length of the growth period. The season of birth had significant effects on length of the growth period and weight of hatchings, whereas this weight difference disappeared by adulthood. The spring snails took less time to develop and reached similar adult body weight as the autumn snails. These differences may be due to differences in egg size or quality between the snails from different seasons. More rapid growth in spring snails results in larger snails entering aestivation, a period with size-related mortality in this species.

Keywords: growth, Hélix aperta, photoperiod, temperature

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Authors: Abdullahi Musa Yusuf

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Culture and traditions are an embodiment of every society. In Africa, people are socialized into believing that the world is full of mysteries. Mysteries that can only be explain through the interpretation of some forces which are ordinarily beyond the comprehension of Man. These forces have the power and capability of influencing the lives of the living either benevolently or malevolently. To decipher these mysteries various religious and cultural practices were evolved. This paper is therefore an attempt to explain the traditional religious belief system and the relationship existing between the forces of the living and dead among the Igala people of the Central Nigeria Region.

Keywords: culture, tradition, mythology, Nigeria

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Authors: Xian Li, Qing-Guo Wang, Jiangshuai Huang, Jidong Liu, Ming Yu, Tan Kok Poh

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In power industry, accurate electricity demand forecasting for a certain leading time is important for system operation and control, etc. In this paper, we investigate the modeling and forecasting of Singapore’s electricity demand. Several standard models, such as HWT exponential smoothing model, the ARMA model and the ANNs model have been proposed based on historical demand data. We applied them to Singapore electricity market and proposed three refinements based on simulation to improve the modeling accuracy. Compared with existing models, our refined model can produce better forecasting accuracy. It is demonstrated in the simulation that by adding forecasting error into the forecasting equation, the modeling accuracy could be improved greatly.

Keywords: power industry, electricity demand, modeling, forecasting

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Authors: Khalaf Khatatneh, Nabeel Al-Milli, Amjad Hudaib, Monther Ali Tarawneh

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Software fault prediction identify potential faults in software modules during the development process. In this paper, we present a novel approach for software fault prediction by combining a feedforward neural network with particle swarm optimization (PSO). The PSO algorithm is employed as a feature selection technique to identify the most relevant metrics as inputs to the neural network. Which enhances the quality of feature selection and subsequently improves the performance of the neural network model. Through comprehensive experiments on software fault prediction datasets, the proposed hybrid approach achieves better results, outperforming traditional classification methods. The integration of PSO-based feature selection with the neural network enables the identification of critical metrics that provide more accurate fault prediction. Results shows the effectiveness of the proposed approach and its potential for reducing development costs and effort by detecting faults early in the software development lifecycle. Further research and validation on diverse datasets will help solidify the practical applicability of the new approach in real-world software engineering scenarios.

Keywords: feature selection, neural network, particle swarm optimization, software fault prediction

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Authors: B. Van Kessel, P. T. Kockelkorn, T. R. Speelman, T. C. Wierikx, C. Mai Van, T. A. Bogaard

Abstract:

Saltwater intrusion is a common problem in estuaries around the world, as it could hinder the freshwater supply of coastal zones. This problem is likely to grow due to climate change and sea-level rise. The influence of these factors on the saltwater intrusion was investigated for the Cai River in the Khanh Hoa province in Vietnam. In addition, the Cai River has high seasonal fluctuations in discharge, leading to increased saltwater intrusion during the dry season. Sea level rise, river discharge changes, river mouth widening and a proposed saltwater intrusion prevention dam can have influences on the saltwater intrusion but have not been quantified for the Cai River estuary. This research used both an analytical and numerical model to investigate the effect of the aforementioned factors. The analytical model was based on a model proposed by Savenije and was calibrated using limited in situ data. The numerical model was a 3D hydrodynamic model made using the Delft3D4 software. The analytical model and numerical model agreed with in situ data, mostly for tidally average data. Both models indicated a roughly similar dependence on discharge, also agreeing that this parameter had the most severe influence on the modeled saltwater intrusion. Especially for discharges below 10 m/s3, the saltwater was predicted to reach further than 10 km. In the models, both sea-level rise and river widening mainly resulted in salinity increments up to 3 kg/m3 in the middle part of the river. The predicted sea-level rise in 2070 was simulated to lead to an increase of 0.5 km in saltwater intrusion length. Furthermore, the effect of the saltwater intrusion dam seemed significant in the model used, but only for the highest position of the gate.

Keywords: Cai River, hydraulic models, river discharge, saltwater intrusion, tidal barriers

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Authors: Omar Alzeley, Sergey Utev

Abstract:

Minimizing a constrained multivariate function is the fundamental of Machine learning, and these algorithms are at the core of data mining and data visualization techniques. The decision function that maps input points to output points is based on the result of optimization. This optimization is the central of learning theory. One approach to complex systems where the dynamics of the system is inferred by a statistical analysis of the fluctuations in time of some associated observable is time series analysis. The purpose of this paper is a mathematical transition from the autoregressive model of classical time series to the matrix formalization of quantum theory. Firstly, we have proposed a quantum time series model (QTS). Although Hamiltonian technique becomes an established tool to detect a deterministic chaos, other approaches emerge. The quantum probabilistic technique is used to motivate the construction of our QTS model. The QTS model resembles the quantum dynamic model which was applied to financial data. Secondly, various statistical methods, including machine learning algorithms such as the Kalman filter algorithm, are applied to estimate and analyses the unknown parameters of the model. Finally, simulation techniques such as Markov chain Monte Carlo have been used to support our investigations. The proposed model has been examined by using real and simulated data. We establish the relation between quantum statistical machine and quantum time series via random matrix theory. It is interesting to note that the primary focus of the application of QTS in the field of quantum chaos was to find a model that explain chaotic behaviour. Maybe this model will reveal another insight into quantum chaos.

Keywords: machine learning, simulation techniques, quantum probability, tensor product, time series

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Authors: Lely A. Luengas, Pedro R. Vizcaya, Giovanni Sánchez

Abstract:

In this paper, a methodology is presented to obtain the Static Alignment Model for any transtibial amputee person. The proposed methodology starts from experimental data collected on the Hospital Militar Central, Bogotá, Colombia. The effects of transtibial prosthesis malalignment on amputees were measured in terms of joint angles, center of pressure (COP) and weight distribution. Some statistical tools are used to obtain the model parameters. Mathematical predictive models of prosthetic alignment were created. The proposed models are validated in amputees and finding promising results for the prosthesis Static Alignment. Static alignment process is unique to each subject; nevertheless the proposed methodology can be used in each transtibial amputee.

Keywords: information theory, prediction model, prosthetic alignment, transtibial prosthesis

Procedia PDF Downloads 240