Search results for: electricity grid mixes
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 1925

Search results for: electricity grid mixes

65 Mathematical Toolbox for editing Equations and Geometrical Diagrams and Graphs

Authors: Ayola D. N. Jayamaha, Gihan V. Dias, Surangika Ranathunga

Abstract:

Currently there are lot of educational tools designed for mathematics. Open source software such as GeoGebra and Octave are bulky in their architectural structure. In addition, there is MathLab software, which facilitates much more than what we ask for. Many of the computer aided online grading and assessment tools require integrating editors to their software. However, there are not exist suitable editors that cater for all their needs in editing equations and geometrical diagrams and graphs. Some of the existing software for editing equations is Alfred’s Equation Editor, Codecogs, DragMath, Maple, MathDox, MathJax, MathMagic, MathFlow, Math-o-mir, Microsoft Equation Editor, MiraiMath, OpenOffice, WIRIS Editor and MyScript. Some of them are commercial, open source, supports handwriting recognition, mobile apps, renders MathML/LaTeX, Flash / Web based and javascript display engines. Some of the diagram editors are GeoKone.NET, Tabulae, Cinderella 1.4, MyScript, Dia, Draw2D touch, Gliffy, GeoGebra, Flowchart, Jgraph, JointJS, J painter Online diagram editor and 2D sketcher. All these software are open source except for MyScript and can be used for editing mathematical diagrams. However, they do not fully cater the needs of a typical computer aided assessment tool or Educational Platform for Mathematics. This solution provides a Web based, lightweight, easy to implement and integrate solution of an html5 canvas that renders on all of the modern web browsers. The scope of the project is an editor that covers equations and mathematical diagrams and drawings on the O/L Mathematical Exam Papers in Sri Lanka. Using the tool the students can enter any equation to the system which can be on an online remote learning platform. The users can also create and edit geometrical drawings, graphs and do geometrical constructions that require only Compass and Ruler from the Editing Interface provided by the Software. The special feature of this software is the geometrical constructions. It allows the users to create geometrical constructions such as angle bisectors, perpendicular lines, angles of 600 and perpendicular bisectors. The tool correctly imitates the functioning of rulers and compasses to create the required geometrical construction. Therefore, the users are able to do geometrical drawings on the computer successfully and we have a digital format of the geometrical drawing for further processing. Secondly, we can create and edit Venn Diagrams, color them and label them. In addition, the students can draw probability tree diagrams and compound probability outcome grids. They can label and mark regions within the grids. Thirdly, students can draw graphs (1st order and 2nd order). They can mark points on a graph paper and the system connects the dots to draw the graph. Further students are able to draw standard shapes such as circles and rectangles by selecting points on a grid or entering the parametric values.

Keywords: geometrical drawings, html5 canvas, mathematical equations, toolbox

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64 Simulation and Thermal Evaluation of Containers Using PCM in Different Weather Conditions of Chile: Energy Savings in Lightweight Constructions

Authors: Paula Marín, Mohammad Saffari, Alvaro de Gracia, Luisa F. Cabeza, Svetlana Ushak

Abstract:

Climate control represents an important issue when referring to energy consumption of buildings and associated expenses, both in installation or operation periods. The climate control of a building relies on several factors. Among them, localization, orientation, architectural elements, sources of energy used, are considered. In order to study the thermal behaviour of a building set up, the present study proposes the use of energy simulation program Energy Plus. In recent years, energy simulation programs have become important tools for evaluation of thermal/energy performance of buildings and facilities. Besides, the need to find new forms of passive conditioning in buildings for energy saving is a critical component. The use of phase change materials (PCMs) for heat storage applications has grown in importance due to its high efficiency. Therefore, the climatic conditions of Northern Chile: high solar radiation and extreme temperature fluctuations ranging from -10°C to 30°C (Calama city), low index of cloudy days during the year are appropriate to take advantage of solar energy and use passive systems in buildings. Also, the extensive mining activities in northern Chile encourage the use of large numbers of containers to harbour workers during shifts. These containers are constructed with lightweight construction systems, requiring heating during night and cooling during day, increasing the HVAC electricity consumption. The use of PCM can improve thermal comfort and reduce the energy consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate the thermal and energy performance of containers of 2.5×2.5×2.5 m3, located in four cities of Chile: Antofagasta, Calama, Santiago, and Concepción. Lightweight envelopes, typically used in these building prototypes, were evaluated considering a container without PCM inclusion as the reference building and another container with PCM-enhanced envelopes as a test case, both of which have a door and a window in the same wall, orientated in two directions: North and South. To see the thermal response of these containers in different seasons, the simulations were performed considering a period of one year. The results show that higher energy savings for the four cities studied are obtained when the distribution of door and window in the container is in the north direction because of higher solar radiation incidence. The comparison of HVAC consumption and energy savings in % for north direction of door and window are summarised. Simulation results show that in the city of Antofagasta 47% of heating energy could be saved and in the cities of Calama and Concepción the biggest savings in terms of cooling could be achieved since PCM reduces almost all the cooling demand. Currently, based on simulation results, four containers have been constructed and sized with the same structural characteristics carried out in simulations, that are, containers with/without PCM, with door and window in one wall. Two of these containers will be placed in Antofagasta and two containers in a copper mine near to Calama, all of them will be monitored for a period of one year. The simulation results will be validated with experimental measurements and will be reported in the future.

Keywords: energy saving, lightweight construction, PCM, simulation

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63 Assessing the Environmental Efficiency of China’s Power System: A Spatial Network Data Envelopment Analysis Approach

Authors: Jianli Jiang, Bai-Chen Xie

Abstract:

The climate issue has aroused global concern. Achieving sustainable development is a good path for countries to mitigate environmental and climatic pressures, although there are many difficulties. The first step towards sustainable development is to evaluate the environmental efficiency of the energy industry with proper methods. The power sector is a major source of CO2, SO2, and NOx emissions. Evaluating the environmental efficiency (EE) of power systems is the premise to alleviate the terrible situation of energy and the environment. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has been widely used in efficiency studies. However, measuring the efficiency of a system (be it a nation, region, sector, or business) is a challenging task. The classic DEA takes the decision-making units (DMUs) as independent, which neglects the interaction between DMUs. While ignoring these inter-regional links may result in a systematic bias in the efficiency analysis; for instance, the renewable power generated in a certain region may benefit the adjacent regions while the SO2 and CO2 emissions act oppositely. This study proposes a spatial network DEA (SNDEA) with a slack measure that can capture the spatial spillover effects of inputs/outputs among DMUs to measure efficiency. This approach is used to study the EE of China's power system, which consists of generation, transmission, and distribution departments, using a panel dataset from 2014 to 2020. In the empirical example, the energy and patent inputs, the undesirable CO2 output, and the renewable energy (RE) power variables are tested for a significant spatial spillover effect. Compared with the classic network DEA, the SNDEA result shows an obvious difference tested by the global Moran' I index. From a dynamic perspective, the EE of the power system experiences a visible surge from 2015, then a sharp downtrend from 2019, which keeps the same trend with the power transmission department. This phenomenon benefits from the market-oriented reform in the Chinese power grid enacted in 2015. The rapid decline in the environmental efficiency of the transmission department in 2020 was mainly due to the Covid-19 epidemic, which hinders economic development seriously. While the EE of the power generation department witnesses a declining trend overall, this is reasonable, taking the RE power into consideration. The installed capacity of RE power in 2020 is 4.40 times that in 2014, while the power generation is 3.97 times; in other words, the power generation per installed capacity shrank. In addition, the consumption cost of renewable power increases rapidly with the increase of RE power generation. These two aspects make the EE of the power generation department show a declining trend. Incorporation of the interactions among inputs/outputs into the DEA model, this paper proposes an efficiency evaluation method on the basis of the DEA framework, which sheds some light on efficiency evaluation in regional studies. Furthermore, the SNDEA model and the spatial DEA concept can be extended to other fields, such as industry, country, and so on.

Keywords: spatial network DEA, environmental efficiency, sustainable development, power system

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62 User-Centered Design in the Development of Patient Decision Aids

Authors: Ariane Plaisance, Holly O. Witteman, Patrick Michel Archambault

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Upon admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), all patients should discuss their wishes concerning life-sustaining interventions (e.g., cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR)). Without such discussions, interventions that prolong life at the cost of decreasing its quality may be used without appropriate guidance from patients. We employed user-centered design to adapt an existing decision aid (DA) about CPR to create a novel wiki-based DA adapted to the context of a single ICU and tailored to individual patient’s risk factors. During Phase 1, we conducted three weeks of ethnography of the decision-making context in our ICU to identify clinician and patient needs for a decision aid. During this time, we observed five dyads of intensivists and patients discussing their wishes concerning life-sustaining interventions. We also conducted semi-structured interviews with the attending intensivists in this ICU. During Phase 2, we conducted three rounds of rapid prototyping involving 15 patients and 11 other allied health professionals. We recorded discussions between intensivists and patients and used a standardized observation grid to collect patients’ comments and sociodemographic data. We applied content analysis to field notes, verbatim transcripts and the completed observation grids. Each round of observations and rapid prototyping iteratively informed the design of the next prototype. We also used the programming architecture of a wiki platform to embed the GO-FAR prediction rule programming code that we linked to a risk graphics software to better illustrate outcome risks calculated. During Phase I, we identified the need to add a section in our DA concerning invasive mechanical ventilation in addition to CPR because both life-sustaining interventions were often discussed together by physicians. During Phase II, we produced a context-adapted decision aid about CPR and mechanical ventilation that includes a values clarification section, questions about the patient’s functional autonomy prior to admission to the ICU and the functional decline that they would judge acceptable upon hospital discharge, risks and benefits of CPR and invasive mechanical ventilation, population-level statistics about CPR, a synthesis section to help patients come to a final decision and an online calculator based on the GO-FAR prediction rule. Even though the three rounds of rapid prototyping led to simplifying the information in our DA, 60% (n= 3/5) of the patients involved in the last cycle still did not understand the purpose of the DA. We also identified gaps in the discussion and documentation of patients’ preferences concerning life-sustaining interventions (e.g.,. CPR, invasive mechanical ventilation). The final version of our DA and our online wiki-based GO-FAR risk calculator using the IconArray.com risk graphics software are available online at www.wikidecision.org and are ready to be adapted to other contexts. Our results inform producers of decision aids on the use of wikis and user-centered design to develop DAs that are better adapted to users’ needs. Further work is needed on the creation of a video version of our DA. Physicians will also need the training to use our DA and to develop shared decision-making skills about goals of care.

Keywords: ethnography, intensive care units, life-sustaining therapies, user-centered design

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61 Improved Soil and Snow Treatment with the Rapid Update Cycle Land-Surface Model for Regional and Global Weather Predictions

Authors: Tatiana G. Smirnova, Stan G. Benjamin

Abstract:

Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) was a land-surface component in several generations of operational weather prediction models at the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It was designed for short-range weather predictions with an emphasis on severe weather and originally was intentionally simple to avoid uncertainties from poorly known parameters. Nevertheless, the RUC LSM, when coupled with the hourly-assimilating atmospheric model, can produce a realistic evolution of time-varying soil moisture and temperature, as well as the evolution of snow cover on the ground surface. This result is possible only if the soil/vegetation/snow component of the coupled weather prediction model has sufficient skill to avoid long-term drift. RUC LSM was first implemented in the operational NCEP Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather model in 1998 and later in the Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF)-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). Being available to the international WRF community, it was implemented in operational weather models in Austria, New Zealand, and Switzerland. Based on the feedback from the US weather service offices and the international WRF community and also based on our own validation, RUC LSM has matured over the years. Also, a sea-ice module was added to RUC LSM for surface predictions over the Arctic sea-ice. Other modifications include refinements to the snow model and a more accurate specification of albedo, roughness length, and other surface properties. At present, RUC LSM is being tested in the regional application of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). The next generation UFS-based regional Rapid Refresh FV3 Standalone (RRFS) model will replace operational RAP and HRRR at NCEP. Over time, RUC LSM participated in several international model intercomparison projects to verify its skill using observed atmospheric forcing. The ESM-SnowMIP was the last of these experiments focused on the verification of snow models for open and forested regions. The simulations were performed for ten sites located in different climatic zones of the world forced with observed atmospheric conditions. While most of the 26 participating models have more sophisticated snow parameterizations than in RUC, RUC LSM got a high ranking in simulations of both snow water equivalent and surface temperature. However, ESM-SnowMIP experiment also revealed some issues in the RUC snow model, which will be addressed in this paper. One of them is the treatment of grid cells partially covered with snow. RUC snow module computes energy and moisture budgets of snow-covered and snow-free areas separately by aggregating the solutions at the end of each time step. Such treatment elevates the importance of computing in the model snow cover fraction. Improvements to the original simplistic threshold-based approach have been implemented and tested both offline and in the coupled weather model. The detailed description of changes to the snow cover fraction and other modifications to RUC soil and snow parameterizations will be described in this paper.

Keywords: land-surface models, weather prediction, hydrology, boundary-layer processes

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60 The United States Film Industry and Its Impact on Latin American Identity Rationalizations

Authors: Alfonso J. García Osuna

Abstract:

Background and Significance: The objective of this paper is to analyze the inception and development of identity archetypes in early XX century Latin America, to explore their roots in United States culture, to discuss the influences that came to bear upon Latin Americans as the United States began to export images of standard identity paradigms through its film industry, and to survey how these images evolved and impacted Latin Americans’ ideas of national distinctiveness from the early 1900s to the present. Therefore, the general hypothesis of this work is that United States film in many ways influenced national identity patterning in its neighbors, especially in those nations closest to its borders, Cuba and Mexico. Very little research has been done on the social impact of the United States film industry on the country’s southern neighbors. From a historical perspective, the US’s influence has been examined as the projection of political and economic power, that is to say, that American influence is seen as a catalyst to align the forces that the US wants to see wield the power of the State. But the subtle yet powerful cultural influence exercised by film, the eminent medium for exporting ideas and ideals in the XX century, has not been significantly explored. Basic Methodologies and Description: Gramscian Marxist theory underpins the study, where it is argued that film, as an exceptional vehicle for culture, is an important site of political and social struggle; in this context, it aims to show how United States capitalist structures of power not only use brute force to generate and maintain control of overseas markets, but also promote their ideas through artistic products such as film in order to infiltrate the popular culture of subordinated peoples. In this same vein, the work of neo-Marxist theoreticians of popular culture is employed in order to contextualize the agency of subordinated peoples in the process of cultural assimilations. Indication of the Major Findings of the Study: The study has yielded much data of interest. The salient finding is that each particular nation receives United States film according to its own particular social and political context, regardless of the amount of pressure exerted upon it. An example of this is the unmistakable dissimilarity between Cuban and Mexican reception of US films. The positive reception given in Cuba to American film has to do with the seamless acceptance of identity paradigms that, for historical reasons discussed herein, were incorporated into the national identity grid quite unproblematically. Such is not the case with Mexico, whose express rejection of identity paradigms offered by the United States reflects not only past conflicts with the northern neighbor, but an enduring recognition of the country’s indigenous roots, one that precluded such paradigms. Concluding Statement: This paper is an endeavor to elucidate the ways in which US film contributed to the outlining of Latin American identity blueprints, offering archetypes that would be accepted or rejected according to each nation’s particular social requirements, constraints and ethnic makeup.

Keywords: film studies, United States, Latin America, identity studies

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59 Assessing the Risk of Socio-economic Drought: A Case Study of Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture, China

Authors: Mengdan Guo, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang

Abstract:

Drought is one of the most complex and destructive natural disasters, with a huge impact on both nature and society. In recent years, adverse climate conditions and uncontrolled human activities have exacerbated the occurrence of global droughts, among which socio-economic droughts are closely related to human survival. The study of socio-economic drought risk assessment is crucial for sustainable social development. Therefore, this study comprehensively considered the risk of disaster causing factors, the exposure level of the disaster-prone environment, and the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body to construct a socio-economic drought risk assessment model for Chuxiong Prefecture in Yunnan Province. Firstly, a threedimensional frequency analysis of intensity area duration drought was conducted, followed by a statistical analysis of the drought risk of the socio-economic system. Secondly, a grid analysis model was constructed to assess the exposure levels of different agents and study the effects of drought on regional crop growth, industrial economic growth, and human consumption thresholds. Thirdly, an agricultural vulnerability model for different irrigation levels was established by using the DSSAT crop model. Industrial economic vulnerability and domestic water vulnerability under the impact of drought were investigated by constructing a standardized socio-economic drought index and coupling water loss. Finally, the socio-economic drought risk was assessed by combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The results show that the frequency of drought occurrence in Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunnan Province is relatively high, with high population and economic exposure concentrated in urban areas of various counties and districts, and high agricultural exposure concentrated in mountainous and rural areas. Irrigation can effectively reduce agricultural vulnerability in Chuxiong, and the yield loss rate under the 20mm winter irrigation scenario decreased by 10.7% compared to the rain fed scenario. From the perspective of comprehensive risk, the distribution of long-term socio-economic drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is relatively consistent, with the more severe areas mainly concentrated in Chuxiong City and Lufeng County, followed by counties such as Yao'an, Mouding and Yuanmou. Shuangbai County has the lowest socio-economic drought risk, which is basically consistent with the economic distribution trend of Chuxiong Prefecture. And in June, July, and August, the drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is generally high. These results can provide constructive suggestions for the allocation of water resources and the construction of water conservancy facilities in Chuxiong Prefecture, and provide scientific basis for more effective drought prevention and control. Future research is in the areas of data quality and availability, climate change impacts, human activity impacts, and countermeasures for a more comprehensive understanding and effective response to drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture.

Keywords: DSSAT model, risk assessment, socio-economic drought, standardized socio-economic drought index

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58 Outdoor Thermal Comfort Strategies: The Case of Cool Facades

Authors: Noelia L. Alchapar, Cláudia C. Pezzuto, Erica N. Correa

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Mitigating urban overheating is key to achieving the environmental and energy sustainability of cities. The management of the optical properties of the materials that make up the urban envelope -roofing, pavement, and facades- constitutes a profitable and effective tool to improve the urban microclimate and rehabilitate urban areas. Each material that makes up the urban envelope has a different capacity to reflect received solar radiation, which alters the fraction of solar radiation absorbed by the city. However, the paradigm of increasing solar reflectance in all areas of the city without distinguishing their relative position within the urban canyon can cause serious problems of overheating and discomfort among its inhabitants. The hypothesis that supports the research postulates that not all reflective technologies that contribute to urban radiative cooling favor the thermal comfort conditions of pedestrians to equal measure. The objective of this work is to determine to what degree the management of the optical properties of the facades modifies outdoor thermal comfort, given that the mitigation potential of materials with high reflectance in facades is strongly conditioned by geographical variables and by the geometric characteristics of the urban profile aspect ratio (H/W). This research was carried out under two climatic contexts, that of the city of Mendoza-Argentina and that of the city of Campinas-Brazil, according to the Köppen climate classification: BWk and Cwa, respectively. Two areas in two different climatic contexts (Mendoza - Argentina and Campinas - Brazil) were selected. Both areas have comparable urban morphology patterns. These areas are located in a region with low horizontal building density and residential zoning. The microclimatic conditions were monitored during the summer period with temperature and humidity fixed sensors inside vial channels. The microclimate model was simulated in ENVI-Met V5. A grid resolution of 3.5 x 3.5 x 3.5m was used for both cities, totaling an area of 145x145x30 grids. Based on the validated theoretical model, ten scenarios were simulated, modifying the height of buildings and the solar reflectivity of facades. The solar reflectivity façades ranges were: low (0.3) and high (0.75). The density scenarios range from 1th to the 5th level. The study scenarios' performance was assessed by comparing the air temperature, physiological equivalent temperature (PET), and thermal climate index (UTCI). As a result, it is observed that the behavior of the materials of the urban outdoor space depends on complex interactions. Many urban environmental factors influence including constructive characteristics, urban morphology, geographic locations, local climate, and so forth. The role of the vertical urban envelope is decisive for the reduction of urban overheating. One of the causes of thermal gain is the multiple reflections within the urban canyon, which affects not only the air temperature but also the pedestrian thermal comfort. One of the main findings of this work leads to the remarkable importance of considering both the urban warming and the thermal comfort aspects of pedestrians in urban mitigation strategies.

Keywords: materials facades, solar reflectivity, thermal comfort, urban cooling

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57 Sustainable Urban Growth of Neighborhoods: A Case Study of Alryad-Khartoum

Authors: Zuhal Eltayeb Awad

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Alryad neighborhood is located in Khartoum town– the administrative center of the Capital of Sudan. The neighborhood is one of the high-income residential areas with villa type development of low-density. It was planned and developed in 1972 with large plots (600-875m²), wide crossing roads and balanced environment. Recently the area transformed into more compact urban form of high density, mixed-use integrated development with more intensive use of land; multi-storied apartments. The most important socio-economic process in the neighborhood has been the commercialization and deinitialization of the area in connect with the displacement of the residential function. This transformation affected the quality of the neighborhood and the inter-related features of the built environment. A case study approach was chosen to gather the necessary qualitative and quantitative data. A detailed survey on existing development pattern was carried out over the whole area of Alryad. Data on the built and social environment of the neighborhoods were collected through observations, interviews and secondary data sources. The paper reflected a theoretical and empirical interest in the particular characteristics of compact neighborhood with high density, and mixed land uses and their effect on social wellbeing of the residents all in the context of the sustainable development. The research problem is focused on the challenges of transformation that associated with compact neighborhood that created multiple urban problems, e.g., stress of essential services (water supply, electricity, and drainage), congestion of streets and demand for parking. The main objective of the study is to analyze the transformation of this area from residential use to commercial and administrative use. The study analyzed the current situation of the neighborhood compared to the five principles of sustainable neighborhood prepared by UN Habitat. The study found that the neighborhood is experienced changes that occur to inner-city residential areas and the process of change of the neighborhood was originated by external forces due to the declining economic situation of the whole country. It is evident that non-residential uses have taken place uncontrolled, unregulated and haphazardly that led to damage the residential environment and deficiency in infrastructure. The quality of urban life and in particular on levels of privacy was reduced, the neighborhood changed gradually to be a central business district that provides services to the whole Khartoum town. The change of house type may be attributed to a demand-led housing market and absence of policy. The results showed that Alryad is not fully sustainable and self-contained, street network characteristics and mixed land-uses development are compatible with the principles of sustainability. The area of streets represents 27.4% of the total area of the neighborhood. Residential density is 4,620 people/ km², that is lower than the recommendations, and the limited block land-use specialization is higher than 10% of the blocks. Most inhabitants have a high income so that there is no social mix in the neighborhood. The study recommended revision of the current zoning regulations in order to control and regulate undesirable development in the neighborhood and provide new solutions which allow promoting the neighborhood sustainable development.

Keywords: compact neighborhood, land uses, mixed use, residential area, transformation

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56 Stock Prediction and Portfolio Optimization Thesis

Authors: Deniz Peksen

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This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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55 Nature of Forest Fragmentation Owing to Human Population along Elevation Gradient in Different Countries in Hindu Kush Himalaya Mountains

Authors: Pulakesh Das, Mukunda Dev Behera, Manchiraju Sri Ramachandra Murthy

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Large numbers of people living in and around the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, depends on this diverse mountainous region for ecosystem services. Following the global trend, this region also experiencing rapid population growth, and demand for timber and agriculture land. The eight countries sharing the HKH region have different forest resources utilization and conservation policies that exert varying forces in the forest ecosystem. This created a variable spatial as well altitudinal gradient in rate of deforestation and corresponding forest patch fragmentation. The quantitative relationship between fragmentation and demography has not been established before for HKH vis-à-vis along elevation gradient. This current study was carried out to attribute the overall and different nature in landscape fragmentations along the altitudinal gradient with the demography of each sharing countries. We have used the tree canopy cover data derived from Landsat data to analyze the deforestation and afforestation rate, and corresponding landscape fragmentation observed during 2000 – 2010. Area-weighted mean radius of gyration (AMN radius of gyration) was computed owing to its advantage as spatial indicator of fragmentation over non-spatial fragmentation indices. Using the subtraction method, the change in fragmentation was computed during 2000 – 2010. Using the tree canopy cover data as a surrogate of forest cover, highest forest loss was observed in Myanmar followed by China, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Bhutan, and Afghanistan. However, the sequence of fragmentation was different after the maximum fragmentation observed in Myanmar followed by India, China, Bangladesh, and Bhutan; whereas increase in fragmentation was seen following the sequence of as Nepal, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Using SRTM-derived DEM, we observed higher rate of fragmentation up to 2400m that corroborated with high human population for the year 2000 and 2010. To derive the nature of fragmentation along the altitudinal gradients, the Statistica software was used, where the user defined function was utilized for regression applying the Gauss-Newton estimation method with 50 iterations. We observed overall logarithmic decrease in fragmentation change (area-weighted mean radius of gyration), forest cover loss and population growth during 2000-2010 along the elevation gradient with very high R2 values (i.e., 0.889, 0.895, 0.944 respectively). The observed negative logarithmic function with the major contribution in the initial elevation gradients suggest to gap filling afforestation in the lower altitudes to enhance the forest patch connectivity. Our finding on the pattern of forest fragmentation and human population across the elevation gradient in HKH region will have policy level implication for different nations and would help in characterizing hotspots of change. Availability of free satellite derived data products on forest cover and DEM, grid-data on demography, and utility of geospatial tools helped in quick evaluation of the forest fragmentation vis-a-vis human impact pattern along the elevation gradient in HKH.

Keywords: area-weighted mean radius of gyration, fragmentation, human impact, tree canopy cover

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54 Toward the Decarbonisation of EU Transport Sector: Impacts and Challenges of the Diffusion of Electric Vehicles

Authors: Francesca Fermi, Paola Astegiano, Angelo Martino, Stephanie Heitel, Michael Krail

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In order to achieve the targeted emission reductions for the decarbonisation of the European economy by 2050, fundamental contributions are required from both energy and transport sectors. The objective of this paper is to analyse the impacts of a largescale diffusion of e-vehicles, either battery-based or fuel cells, together with the implementation of transport policies aiming at decreasing the use of motorised private modes in order to achieve greenhouse gas emission reduction goals, in the context of a future high share of renewable energy. The analysis of the impacts and challenges of future scenarios on transport sector is performed with the ASTRA (ASsessment of TRAnsport Strategies) model. ASTRA is a strategic system-dynamic model at European scale (EU28 countries, Switzerland and Norway), consisting of different sub-modules related to specific aspects: the transport system (e.g. passenger trips, tonnes moved), the vehicle fleet (composition and evolution of technologies), the demographic system, the economic system, the environmental system (energy consumption, emissions). A key feature of ASTRA is that the modules are linked together: changes in one system are transmitted to other systems and can feed-back to the original source of variation. Thanks to its multidimensional structure, ASTRA is capable to simulate a wide range of impacts stemming from the application of transport policy measures: the model addresses direct impacts as well as second-level and third-level impacts. The simulation of the different scenarios is performed within the REFLEX project, where the ASTRA model is employed in combination with several energy models in a comprehensive Modelling System. From the transport sector perspective, some of the impacts are driven by the trend of electricity price estimated from the energy modelling system. Nevertheless, the major drivers to a low carbon transport sector are policies related to increased fuel efficiency of conventional drivetrain technologies, improvement of demand management (e.g. increase of public transport and car sharing services/usage) and diffusion of environmentally friendly vehicles (e.g. electric vehicles). The final modelling results of the REFLEX project will be available from October 2018. The analysis of the impacts and challenges of future scenarios is performed in terms of transport, environmental and social indicators. The diffusion of e-vehicles produces a consistent reduction of future greenhouse gas emissions, although the decarbonisation target can be achieved only with the contribution of complementary transport policies on demand management and supporting the deployment of low-emission alternative energy for non-road transport modes. The paper explores the implications through time of transport policy measures on mobility and environment, underlying to what extent they can contribute to a decarbonisation of the transport sector. Acknowledgements: The results refer to the REFLEX project which has received grants from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant Agreement No. 691685.

Keywords: decarbonisation, greenhouse gas emissions, e-mobility, transport policies, energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 129
53 The Use of Graphic Design Elements for Design of Newspaper for Women

Authors: Pibool Waijittragum

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This paper has its objectives to reveal contents and personality suitable to women’s newspapers. The research methodology employed in this study is the questionnaire which is derived from a literature review related to newspapers, graphic elements method for print media design and 12 sample sizes of different daily newspapers. In order to acquire an in-depth understanding and comprehensible view of desirable for a women’s newspaper design, graphic elements that related to that personality as well as other preferable elements for a women’s newspaper, including seven editorial Many Thai newspapers were offer a women’s documentary and column space. With its feminine looks, most of them appeared with warm tones and friendly mood through their headlines, contents, illustrations and graphics. The study found that most desirable personalities for a women’s newspaper design in Thailand are: Modern, Chic and Natural. Each personality has significant graphic elements as follows: 1. Modern: significant elements of modern personality comprises of the composition with graduation pattern which creates attractiveness by using an anomalous alignment layout grid and outstanding structure to create focal points and dynamic movement. Dark to black color that has narrowed, limited hue coupled with bright color tones. The round shape of the Thai font style was suitable for this concept. Such Thai fonts have harmonious proportion and consistent stroke with the urban-polite look. 2. Chic: significant elements of chic personality comprises of the proper composition with distinctive scale, using rhythmic repetition and a contrast of scale to draw in reader attention. Vivid and bright color tones with extensive hues coupled with similar color tones and round shape of the Thai font style with a light stroke and consistent line. 3. Natural: significant elements of natural personality comprises of the proper composition using rhythmic repetition that creates a focal point through striking images and harmonious perspective. Warm color tones with restricted hues that appear to look natural. Duo tone color was suitable through the gradually increasing gradient. The Thai style with hand writing font was suitable through the inconsistent stroke. There are 10 types of daily content that were revealed to be the most desirable for Thai women readers, these are: Daily News, Economics News, Education News, Entertainment News, International news, Political News, Public Health News, Scientific News, Social News and Sports News. As well, there are 16 topics identified as very desirable for Thai women readers, such as: Art and Culture, Automobile, Classified, Special Scoop, Editorial, Advertisement, Entertainment, Health and Quality of Life, History, Horoscope, Lifestyle and Fashion, Literature, Nature - Environment and Tourism, Night Life, Stars and Jet Set Gossip, Women’s Issue.

Keywords: women behaviors, feminine looks, newspaper design, news content

Procedia PDF Downloads 141
52 An Odyssey to Sustainability: The Urban Archipelago of India

Authors: B. Sudhakara Reddy

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This study provides a snapshot of the sustainability of selected Indian cities by employing 70 indicators in four dimensions to develop an overall city sustainability index. In recent years, the concept of ‘urban sustainability’ has become prominent due to its complexity. Urban areas propel growth and at the same time poses a lot of ecological, social and infrastructural problems and risks. In case of developing countries, the high population density of and the continuous in-migration run the highest risk in natural and man-made disasters. These issues combined with the inability of policy makers in providing basic services makes the cities unsustainable. To assess whether any given policy is moving towards or against urban sustainability it is necessary to consider the relationships among its various dimensions. Hence, in recent years, while preparing the sustainability index, an integral approach involving indicators of different dimensions such as ‘economic’, ‘environmental’ and 'social' is being used. It is also important for urban planners, social analysts and other related institutions to identify and understand the relationships in this complex system. The objective of the paper is to develop a city performance index (CPI) to measure and evaluate the urban regions in terms of sustainable performances. The objectives include: i) Objective assessment of a city’s performance, ii) setting achievable goals iii) prioritise relevant indicators for improvement, iv) learning from leaders, iv) assessment of the effectiveness of programmes that results in achieving high indicator values, v) Strengthening of stakeholder participation. Using the benchmark approach, a conceptual framework is developed for evaluating 25 Indian cities. We develop City Sustainability index (CSI) in order to rank cities according to their level of sustainability. The CSI is composed of four dimensions: Economic, Environment, Social, and Institutional. Each dimension is further composed of multiple indicators: (1) Economic that considers growth, access to electricity, and telephone availability; (2) environmental that includes waste water treatment, carbon emissions, (3) social that includes, equity, infant mortality, and 4) institutional that includes, voting share of population, urban regeneration policies. The CSI, consisting of four dimensions disaggregate into 12 categories and ultimately into 70 indicators. The data are obtained from public and non-governmental organizations, and also from city officials and experts. By ranking a sample of diverse cities on a set of specific dimensions the study can serve as a baseline of current conditions and a marker for referencing future results. The benchmarks and indices presented in the study provide a unique resource for the government and the city authorities to learn about the positive and negative attributes of a city and prepare plans for a sustainable urban development. As a result of our conceptual framework, the set of criteria we suggest is somewhat different to any already in the literature. The scope of our analysis is intended to be broad. Although illustrated with specific examples, it should be apparent that the principles identified are relevant to any monitoring that is used to inform decisions involving decision variables. These indicators are policy-relevant and, hence they are useful tool for decision-makers and researchers.

Keywords: benchmark, city, indicator, performance, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 247
51 Refurbishment Methods to Enhance Energy Efficiency of Brick Veneer Residential Buildings in Victoria

Authors: Hamid Reza Tabatabaiefar, Bita Mansoury, Mohammad Javad Khadivi Zand

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The current energy and climate change impacts of the residential building sector in Australia are significant. Thus, the Australian Government has introduced more stringent regulations to improve building energy efficiency. In 2006, the Australian residential building sector consumed about 11% (around 440 Petajoule) of the total primary energy, resulting in total greenhouse gas emissions of 9.65 million tonnes CO2-eq. The gas and electricity consumption of residential dwellings contributed to 30% and 52% respectively, of the total primary energy utilised by this sector. Around 40 percent of total energy consumption of Australian buildings goes to heating and cooling due to the low thermal performance of the buildings. Thermal performance of buildings determines the amount of energy used for heating and cooling of the buildings which profoundly influences energy efficiency. Employing sustainable design principles and effective use of construction materials can play a crucial role in improving thermal performance of new and existing buildings. Even though awareness has been raised, the design phase of refurbishment projects is often problematic. One of the issues concerning the refurbishment of residential buildings is mostly the consumer market, where most work consists of moderate refurbishment jobs, often without assistance of an architect and partly without a building permit. There is an individual and often fragmental approach that results in lack of efficiency. Most importantly, the decisions taken in the early stages of the design determine the final result; however, the assessment of the environmental performance only happens at the end of the design process, as a reflection of the design outcome. Finally, studies have identified the lack of knowledge, experience and best-practice examples as barriers in refurbishment projects. In the context of sustainable development and the need to reduce energy demand, refurbishing the ageing residential building constitutes a necessary action. Not only it does provide huge potential for energy savings, but it is also economically and socially relevant. Although the advantages have been identified, the guidelines come in the form of general suggestions that fail to address the diversity of each project. As a result, it has been recognised that there is a strong need to develop guidelines for optimised retrofitting of existing residential buildings in order to improve their energy performance. The current study investigates the effectiveness of different energy retrofitting techniques and examines the impact of employing those methods on energy consumption of residential brick veneer buildings in Victoria (Australia). Proposing different remedial solutions for improving the energy performance of residential brick veneer buildings, in the simulation stage, annual energy usage analyses have been carried out to determine heating and cooling energy consumptions of the buildings for different proposed retrofitting techniques. Then, the results of employing different retrofitting methods have been examined and compared in order to identify the most efficient and cost-effective remedial solution for improving the energy performance of those buildings with respect to the climate condition in Victoria and construction materials of the studied benchmark building.

Keywords: brick veneer residential buildings, building energy efficiency, climate change impacts, cost effective remedial solution, energy performance, sustainable design principles

Procedia PDF Downloads 265
50 Operation System for Aluminium-Air Cell: A Strategy to Harvest the Energy from Secondary Aluminium

Authors: Binbin Chen, Dennis Y. C. Leung

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Aluminium (Al) -air cell holds a high volumetric capacity density of 8.05 Ah cm-3, benefit from the trivalence of Al ions. Additional benefits of Al-air cell are low price and environmental friendliness. Furthermore, the Al energy conversion process is characterized of 100% recyclability in theory. Along with a large base of raw material reserve, Al attracts considerable attentions as a promising material to be integrated within the global energy system. However, despite the early successful applications in military services, several problems exist that prevent the Al-air cells from widely civilian use. The most serious issue is the parasitic corrosion of Al when contacts with electrolyte. To overcome this problem, super-pure Al alloyed with various traces of metal elements are used to increase the corrosion resistance. Nevertheless, high-purity Al alloys are costly and require high energy consumption during production process. An alternative approach is to add inexpensive inhibitors directly into the electrolyte. However, such additives would increase the internal ohmic resistance and hamper the cell performance. So far these methods have not provided satisfactory solutions for the problem within Al-air cells. For the operation of alkaline Al-air cell, there are still other minor problems. One of them is the formation of aluminium hydroxide in the electrolyte. This process decreases ionic conductivity of electrolyte. Another one is the carbonation process within the gas diffusion layer of cathode, blocking the porosity of gas diffusion. Both these would hinder the performance of cells. The present work optimizes the above problems by building an Al-air cell operation system, consisting of four components. A top electrolyte tank containing fresh electrolyte is located at a high level, so that it can drive the electrolyte flow by gravity force. A mechanical rechargeable Al-air cell is fabricated with low-cost materials including low grade Al, carbon paper, and PMMA plates. An electrolyte waste tank with elaborate channel is designed to separate the hydrogen generated from the corrosion, which would be collected by gas collection device. In the first section of the research work, we investigated the performance of the mechanical rechargeable Al-air cell with a constant flow rate of electrolyte, to ensure the repeatability experiments. Then the whole system was assembled together and the feasibility of operating was demonstrated. During experiment, pure hydrogen is collected by collection device, which holds potential for various applications. By collecting this by-product, high utilization efficiency of aluminum is achieved. Considering both electricity and hydrogen generated, an overall utilization efficiency of around 90 % or even higher under different working voltages are achieved. Fluidic electrolyte could remove aluminum hydroxide precipitate and solve the electrolyte deterioration problem. This operation system provides a low-cost strategy for harvesting energy from the abundant secondary Al. The system could also be applied into other metal-air cells and is suitable for emergency power supply, power plant and other applications. The low cost feature implies great potential for commercialization. Further optimization, such as scaling up and optimization of fabrication, will help to refine the technology into practical market offerings.

Keywords: aluminium-air cell, high efficiency, hydrogen, mechanical recharge

Procedia PDF Downloads 254
49 Respiratory Health and Air Movement Within Equine Indoor Arenas

Authors: Staci McGill, Morgan Hayes, Robert Coleman, Kimberly Tumlin

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The interaction and relationships between horses and humans have been shown to be positive for physical, mental, and emotional wellbeing, however equine spaces where these interactions occur do include some environmental risks. There are 1.7 million jobs associated with the equine industry in the United States in addition to recreational riders, owners, and volunteers who interact with horses for substantial amounts of time daily inside built structures. One specialized facility, an “indoor arena” is a semi-indoor structure used for exercising horses and exhibiting skills during competitive events. Typically, indoor arenas have a sand or sand mixture as the footing or surface over which the horse travels, and increasingly, silica sand is being recommended due to its durable nature. It was previously identified in a semi-qualitative survey that the majority of individuals using indoor arenas have environmental concerns with dust. 27% (90/333) of respondents reported respiratory issues or allergy-like symptoms while riding with 21.6% (71/329) of respondents reporting these issues while standing on the ground observing or teaching. Frequent headaches and/or lightheadedness was reported in 9.9% (33/333) of respondents while riding and in 4.3% 14/329 while on the ground. Horse respiratory health is also negatively impacted with 58% (194/333) of respondents indicating horses cough during or after time in the indoor arena. Instructors who spent time in indoor arenas self-reported more respiratory issues than those individuals who identified as smokers, highlighting the health relevance of understanding these unique structures. To further elucidate environmental concerns and self-reported health issues, 35 facility assessments were conducted in a cross-sectional sampling design in the states of Kentucky and Ohio (USA). Data, including air speeds, were collected in a grid fashion at 15 points within the indoor arenas and then mapped spatially using krigging in ARCGIS. From the spatial maps, standard variances were obtained and differences were analyzed using multivariant analysis of variances (MANOVA) and analysis of variances (ANOVA). There were no differences for the variance of the air speeds in the spaces for facility orientation, presence and type of roof ventilation, climate control systems, amount of openings, or use of fans. Variability of the air speeds in the indoor arenas was 0.25 or less. Further analysis yielded that average air speeds within the indoor arenas were lower than 100 ft/min (0.51 m/s) which is considered still air in other animal facilities. The lack of air movement means that dust clearance is reliant on particle size and weight rather than ventilation. While further work on respirable dust is necessary, this characterization of the semi-indoor environment where animals and humans interact indicates insufficient air flow to eliminate or reduce respiratory hazards. Finally, engineering solutions to address air movement deficiencies within indoor arenas or mitigate particulate matter are critical to ensuring exposures do not lead to adverse health outcomes for equine professionals, volunteers, participants, and horses within these spaces.

Keywords: equine, indoor arena, ventilation, particulate matter, respiratory health

Procedia PDF Downloads 83
48 Combined Civilian and Military Disaster Response: A Critical Analysis of the 2010 Haiti Earthquake Relief Effort

Authors: Matthew Arnaouti, Michael Baird, Gabrielle Cahill, Tamara Worlton, Michelle Joseph

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Introduction: Over ten years after the 7.0 magnitude Earthquake struck the capital of Haiti, impacting over three million people and leading to the deaths of over two hundred thousand, the multinational humanitarian response remains the largest disaster relief effort to date. This study critically evaluates the multi-sector and multinational disaster response to the Earthquake, looking at how the lessons learned from this analysis can be applied to future disaster response efforts. We put particular emphasis on assessing the interaction between civilian and military sectors during this humanitarian relief effort, with the hopes of highlighting how concrete guidelines are essential to improve future responses. Methods: An extensive scoping review of the relevant literature was conducted - where library scientists conducted reproducible, verified systematic searches of multiple databases. Grey literature and hand searches were utilised to identify additional unclassified military documents, for inclusion in the study. More than 100 documents were included for data extraction and analysis. Key domains were identified, these included: Humanitarian and Military Response, Communication, Coordination, Resources, Needs Assessment and Pre-Existing Policy. Corresponding information and lessons-learned pertaining to these domains was then extracted - detailing the barriers and facilitators to an effective response. Results: Multiple themes were noted which stratified all identified domains - including the lack of adequate pre-existing policy, as well as extensive ambiguity of actors’ roles. This ambiguity was continually influenced by the complex role the United States military played in the disaster response. At a deeper level, the effects of neo-colonialism and concern about infringements on Haitian sovereignty played a substantial role at all levels: setting the pre-existing conditions and determining the redevelopment efforts that followed. Furthermore, external factors significantly impacted the response, particularly the loss of life within the political and security sectors. This was compounded by the destruction of important infrastructure systems - particularly electricity supplies and telecommunication networks, as well as air and seaport capabilities. Conclusions: This study stands as one of the first and most comprehensive evaluations, systematically analysing the civilian and military response - including their collaborative efforts. This study offers vital information for improving future combined responses and provides a significant opportunity for advancing knowledge in disaster relief efforts - which remains a more pressing issue than ever. The categories and domains formulated serve to highlight interdependent factors that should be applied in future disaster responses, with significant potential to aid the effective performance of humanitarian actors. Further studies will be grounded in these findings, particularly the need for greater inclusion of the Haitian perspective in the literature, through additional qualitative research studies.

Keywords: civilian and military collaboration, combined response, disaster, disaster response, earthquake, Haiti, humanitarian response

Procedia PDF Downloads 98
47 Early Diagnosis of Myocardial Ischemia Based on Support Vector Machine and Gaussian Mixture Model by Using Features of ECG Recordings

Authors: Merve Begum Terzi, Orhan Arikan, Adnan Abaci, Mustafa Candemir

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Acute myocardial infarction is a major cause of death in the world. Therefore, its fast and reliable diagnosis is a major clinical need. ECG is the most important diagnostic methodology which is used to make decisions about the management of the cardiovascular diseases. In patients with acute myocardial ischemia, temporary chest pains together with changes in ST segment and T wave of ECG occur shortly before the start of myocardial infarction. In this study, a technique which detects changes in ST/T sections of ECG is developed for the early diagnosis of acute myocardial ischemia. For this purpose, a database of real ECG recordings that contains a set of records from 75 patients presenting symptoms of chest pain who underwent elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is constituted. 12-lead ECG’s of the patients were recorded before and during the PCI procedure. Two ECG epochs, which are the pre-inflation ECG which is acquired before any catheter insertion and the occlusion ECG which is acquired during balloon inflation, are analyzed for each patient. By using pre-inflation and occlusion recordings, ECG features that are critical in the detection of acute myocardial ischemia are identified and the most discriminative features for the detection of acute myocardial ischemia are extracted. A classification technique based on support vector machine (SVM) approach operating with linear and radial basis function (RBF) kernels to detect ischemic events by using ST-T derived joint features from non-ischemic and ischemic states of the patients is developed. The dataset is randomly divided into training and testing sets and the training set is used to optimize SVM hyperparameters by using grid-search method and 10fold cross-validation. SVMs are designed specifically for each patient by tuning the kernel parameters in order to obtain the optimal classification performance results. As a result of implementing the developed classification technique to real ECG recordings, it is shown that the proposed technique provides highly reliable detections of the anomalies in ECG signals. Furthermore, to develop a detection technique that can be used in the absence of ECG recording obtained during healthy stage, the detection of acute myocardial ischemia based on ECG recordings of the patients obtained during ischemia is also investigated. For this purpose, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to represent the joint pdf of the most discriminating ECG features of myocardial ischemia. Then, a Neyman-Pearson type of approach is developed to provide detection of outliers that would correspond to acute myocardial ischemia. Neyman – Pearson decision strategy is used by computing the average log likelihood values of ECG segments and comparing them with a range of different threshold values. For different discrimination threshold values and number of ECG segments, probability of detection and probability of false alarm values are computed, and the corresponding ROC curves are obtained. The results indicate that increasing number of ECG segments provide higher performance for GMM based classification. Moreover, the comparison between the performances of SVM and GMM based classification showed that SVM provides higher classification performance results over ECG recordings of considerable number of patients.

Keywords: ECG classification, Gaussian mixture model, Neyman–Pearson approach, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 123
46 Deep Learning Based Text to Image Synthesis for Accurate Facial Composites in Criminal Investigations

Authors: Zhao Gao, Eran Edirisinghe

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The production of an accurate sketch of a suspect based on a verbal description obtained from a witness is an essential task for most criminal investigations. The criminal investigation system employs specifically trained professional artists to manually draw a facial image of the suspect according to the descriptions of an eyewitness for subsequent identification. Within the advancement of Deep Learning, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) have shown great promise in Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Additionally, Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) have also proven to be very effective in image generation. In this study, a trained GAN conditioned on textual features such as keywords automatically encoded from a verbal description of a human face using an RNN is used to generate photo-realistic facial images for criminal investigations. The intention of the proposed system is to map corresponding features into text generated from verbal descriptions. With this, it becomes possible to generate many reasonably accurate alternatives to which the witness can use to hopefully identify a suspect from. This reduces subjectivity in decision making both by the eyewitness and the artist while giving an opportunity for the witness to evaluate and reconsider decisions. Furthermore, the proposed approach benefits law enforcement agencies by reducing the time taken to physically draw each potential sketch, thus increasing response times and mitigating potentially malicious human intervention. With publically available 'CelebFaces Attributes Dataset' (CelebA) and additionally providing verbal description as training data, the proposed architecture is able to effectively produce facial structures from given text. Word Embeddings are learnt by applying the RNN architecture in order to perform semantic parsing, the output of which is fed into the GAN for synthesizing photo-realistic images. Rather than the grid search method, a metaheuristic search based on genetic algorithms is applied to evolve the network with the intent of achieving optimal hyperparameters in a fraction the time of a typical brute force approach. With the exception of the ‘CelebA’ training database, further novel test cases are supplied to the network for evaluation. Witness reports detailing criminals from Interpol or other law enforcement agencies are sampled on the network. Using the descriptions provided, samples are generated and compared with the ground truth images of a criminal in order to calculate the similarities. Two factors are used for performance evaluation: The Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) and the Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR). A high percentile output from this performance matrix should attribute to demonstrating the accuracy, in hope of proving that the proposed approach can be an effective tool for law enforcement agencies. The proposed approach to criminal facial image generation has potential to increase the ratio of criminal cases that can be ultimately resolved using eyewitness information gathering.

Keywords: RNN, GAN, NLP, facial composition, criminal investigation

Procedia PDF Downloads 138
45 Modeling the Present Economic and Social Alienation of Working Class in South Africa in the Musical Production ‘from Marikana to Mahagonny’ at Durban University of Technology (DUT)

Authors: Pamela Tancsik

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The stage production in 2018, titled ‘From‘Marikana to Mahagonny’, began with a prologue in the form of the award-winning documentary ‘Miners Shot Down' by Rehad Desai, followed by Brecht/Weill’s song play or scenic cantata ‘Mahagonny’, premièred in Baden-Baden 1927. The central directorial concept of the DUT musical production ‘From Marikana to Mahagonny’ was to show a connection between the socio-political alienation of mineworkers in present-day South Africa and Brecht’s alienation effect in his scenic cantata ‘Mahagonny’. Marikana is a mining town about 50 km west of South Africa’s capital Pretoria. Mahagonny is a fantasy name for a utopian mining town in the United States. The characters, setting, and lyrics refer to America with of songs like ‘Benares’ and ‘Moon of Alabama’ and the use of typical American inventions such as dollars, saloons, and the telephone. The six singing characters in ‘Mahagonny’ all have typical American names: Charlie, Billy, Bobby, Jimmy, and the two girls they meet later are called Jessie and Bessie. The four men set off to seek Mahagonny. For them, it is the ultimate dream destination promising the fulfilment of all their desires, such as girls, alcohol, and dollars – in short, materialistic goals. Instead of finding a paradise, they experience how money and the practice of exploitive capitalism, and the lack of any moral and humanity is destroying their lives. In the end, Mahagonny gets demolished by a hurricane, an event which happened in 1926 in the United States. ‘God’ in person arrives disillusioned and bitter, complaining about violent and immoral mankind. In the end, he sends them all to hell. Charlie, Billy, Bobby, and Jimmy reply that this punishment does not mean anything to them because they have already been in hell for a long time – hell on earth is a reality, so the threat of hell after life is meaningless. Human life was also taken during the stand-off between striking mineworkers and the South African police on 16 August 2012. Miners from the Lonmin Platinum Mine went on an illegal strike, equipped with bush knives and spears. They were striking because their living conditions had never improved; they still lived in muddy shacks with no running water and electricity. Wages were as low as R4,000 (South African Rands), equivalent to just over 200 Euro per month. By August 2012, the negotiations between Lonmin management and the mineworkers’ unions, asking for a minimum wage of R12,500 per month, had failed. Police were sent in by the Government, and when the miners did not withdraw, the police shot at them. 34 were killed, some by bullets in their backs while running away and trying to hide behind rocks. In the musical play ‘From Marikana to Mahagonny’ audiences in South Africa are confronted with a documentary about Marikana, followed by Brecht/Weill’s scenic cantata, highlighting the tragic parallels between the Mahagonny story and characters from 1927 America and the Lonmin workers today in South Africa, showing that in 95 years, capitalism has not changed.

Keywords: alienation, brecht/Weill, mahagonny, marikana/South Africa, musical theatre

Procedia PDF Downloads 67
44 Effect of Non-Thermal Plasma, Chitosan and Polymyxin B on Quorum Sensing Activity and Biofilm of Pseudomonas aeruginosa

Authors: Alena Cejkova, Martina Paldrychova, Jana Michailidu, Olga Matatkova, Jan Masak

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Increasing the resistance of pathogenic microorganisms to many antibiotics is a serious threat to the treatment of infectious diseases and cleaning medical instruments. It should be added that the resistance of microbial populations growing in biofilms is often up to 1000 times higher compared to planktonic cells. Biofilm formation in a number of microorganisms is largely influenced by the quorum sensing regulatory mechanism. Finding external factors such as natural substances or physical processes that can interfere effectively with quorum sensing signal molecules should reduce the ability of the cell population to form biofilm and increase the effectiveness of antibiotics. The present work is devoted to the effect of chitosan as a representative of natural substances with anti-biofilm activity and non- thermal plasma (NTP) alone or in combination with polymyxin B on biofilm formation of Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Particular attention was paid to the influence of these agents on the level of quorum sensing signal molecules (acyl-homoserine lactones) during planktonic and biofilm cultivations. Opportunistic pathogenic strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa (DBM 3081, DBM 3777, ATCC 10145, ATCC 15442) were used as model microorganisms. Cultivations of planktonic and biofilm populations in 96-well microtiter plates on horizontal shaker were used for determination of antibiotic and anti-biofilm activity of chitosan and polymyxin B. Biofilm-growing cells on titanium alloy, which is used for preparation of joint replacement, were exposed to non-thermal plasma generated by cometary corona with a metallic grid for 15 and 30 minutes. Cultivation followed in fresh LB medium with or without chitosan or polymyxin B for next 24 h. Biofilms were quantified by crystal violet assay. Metabolic activity of the cells in biofilm was measured using MTT (3-[4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl]-2,5 diphenyl tetrazolium bromide) colorimetric test based on the reduction of MTT into formazan by the dehydrogenase system of living cells. Activity of N-acyl homoserine lactones (AHLs) compounds involved in the regulation of biofilm formation was determined using Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain harboring a traG::lacZ/traR reporter gene responsive to AHLs. The experiments showed that both chitosan and non-thermal plasma reduce the AHLs level and thus the biofilm formation and stability. The effectiveness of both agents was somewhat strain dependent. During the eradication of P. aeruginosa DBM 3081 biofilm on titanium alloy induced by chitosan (45 mg / l) there was an 80% decrease in AHLs. Applying chitosan or NTP on the P. aeruginosa DBM 3777 biofilm did not cause a significant decrease in AHLs, however, in combination with both (chitosan 55 mg / l and NTP 30 min), resulted in a 70% decrease in AHLs. Combined application of NTP and polymyxin B allowed reduce antibiotic concentration to achieve the same level of AHLs inhibition in P. aeruginosa ATCC 15442. The results shown that non-thermal plasma and chitosan have considerable potential for the eradication of highly resistant P. aeruginosa biofilms, for example on medical instruments or joint implants.

Keywords: anti-biofilm activity, chitosan, non-thermal plasma, opportunistic pathogens

Procedia PDF Downloads 181
43 Well-being of Parents of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder or Developmental Coordination Disorder: Cross-Cultural and Cross-disorder Comparative Studies

Authors: Léa Chawki, Émilie Cappe

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Context: Nowadays, supporting parents of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and helping them adjust to their child’s condition represents a core clinical and scientific necessity and is encouraged by the French National Strategy for Autism (2018). In France, ASD remains a challenging condition, causing distress, segregation and social stigma to concerned family members concerned by this handicap. The literature highlights that neurodevelopmental disorders in children, such as ASD, influence parental well-being. This impact could be different according to parents’ culture and the child’s particular disorder manifestation, such as developmental coordination disorder (DCC), for instance. Objectives: This present study aims to explore parental stress, anxiety and depressive symptoms, as well as the quality of life in parents of children with ASD or DCD, as well as the explicit individual, psychosocial and cultural factors of parental well-being. Methods: Participants will be recruited through diagnostic centers, child and specialized adolescent units, and organizations representing families with ASD and DCD. Our sample will include five groups of 150 parents: four groups of parents having children with ASD – one living in France, one in the US, one in Canada and the other in Lebanon – and one group of French parents of children with DCD. Self-evaluation measures will be filled directly by parents in order to measure parental stress, anxiety and depressive symptoms, quality of life, coping and emotional regulation strategies, internalized stigma, perceived social support, the child’s problem behaviors severity, as well as motor coordination deficits in children with ASD and DCD. A sociodemographic questionnaire will help collect additional useful data regarding participants and their children. Individual and semi-structured research interviews will be conducted to complete quantitative data by further exploring participants’ distinct experiences related to parenting a child with a neurodevelopmental disorder. An interview grid, specially designed for the needs of this study, will strengthen the comparison between the experiences of parents of children with ASD with those of parents of children with DCD. It will also help investigate cultural differences regarding parent support policies in the context of raising a child with ASD. Moreover, interviews will help clarify the link between certain research variables (behavioral differences between ASD and DCD, family leisure activities, family and children’s extracurricular life, etc.) and parental well-being. Research perspectives: Results of this study will provide a more holistic understanding of the roles of individual, psychosocial and cultural variables related to parental well-being. Thus, this study will help direct the implementation of support services offered to families of children with neurodevelopmental disorders (ASD and DCD). Also, the implications of this study are essential in order to guide families through changes related to public policies assisting neurodevelopmental disorders and other disabilities. The between-group comparison (ASD and DCD) is also expected to help clarify the origins of all the different challenges encountered by those families. Hence, it will be interesting to investigate whether complications perceived by parents are more likely to arise from child-symptom severity, or from the lack of support obtained from health and educational systems.

Keywords: Autism spectrum disorder, cross-cultural, cross-disorder, developmental coordination delay, well-being

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42 Effects of the In-Situ Upgrading Project in Afghanistan: A Case Study on the Formally and Informally Developed Areas in Kabul

Authors: Maisam Rafiee, Chikashi Deguchi, Akio Odake, Minoru Matsui, Takanori Sata

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Cities in Afghanistan have been rapidly urbanized; however, many parts of these cities have been developed with no detailed land use plan or infrastructure. In other words, they have been informally developed without any government leadership. The new government started the In-situ Upgrading Project in Kabul to upgrade roads, the water supply network system, and the surface water drainage system on the existing street layout in 2002, with the financial support of international agencies. This project is an appropriate emergency improvement for living life, but not an essential improvement of living conditions and infrastructure problems because the life expectancies of the improved facilities are as short as 10–15 years, and residents cannot obtain land tenure in the unplanned areas. The Land Readjustment System (LRS) conducted in Japan has good advantages that rearrange irregularly shaped land lots and develop the infrastructure effectively. This study investigates the effects of the In-situ Upgrading Project on private investment, land prices, and residents’ satisfaction with projects in Kart-e-Char, where properties are registered, and in Afshar-e-Silo Lot 1, where properties are unregistered. These projects are located 5 km and 7 km from the CBD area of Kabul, respectively. This study discusses whether LRS should be applied to the unplanned area based on the questionnaire and interview responses of experts experienced in the In-situ Upgrading Project who have knowledge of LRS. The analysis results reveal that, in Kart-e-Char, a lot of private investment has been made in the construction of medium-rise (five- to nine-story) buildings for commercial and residential purposes. Land values have also incrementally increased since the project, and residents are commonly satisfied with the road pavement, drainage systems, and water supplies, but dissatisfied with the poor delivery of electricity as well as the lack of public facilities (e.g., parks and sport facilities). In Afshar-e-Silo Lot 1, basic infrastructures like paved roads and surface water drainage systems have improved from the project. After the project, a few four- and five-story residential buildings were built with very low-level private investments, but significant increases in land prices were not evident. The residents are satisfied with the contribution ratio, drainage system, and small increase in land price, but there is still no drinking water supply system or tenure security; moreover, there are substandard paved roads and a lack of public facilities, such as parks, sport facilities, mosques, and schools. The results of the questionnaire and interviews with the four engineers highlight the problems that remain to be solved in the unplanned areas if LRS is applied—namely, land use differences, types and conditions of the infrastructure still to be installed by the project, and time spent for positive consensus building among the residents, given the project’s budget limitation.

Keywords: in-situ upgrading, Kabul city, land readjustment, land value, planned area, private investment, residents' satisfaction, unplanned area

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41 The Applications of Zero Water Discharge (ZWD) Systems for Environmental Management

Authors: Walter W. Loo

Abstract:

China declared the “zero discharge rules which leave no toxics into our living environment and deliver blue sky, green land and clean water to many generations to come”. The achievement of ZWD will provide conservation of water, soil and energy and provide drastic increase in Gross Domestic Products (GDP). Our society’s engine needs a major tune up; it is sputtering. ZWD is achieved in world’s space stations – no toxic air emission and the water is totally recycled and solid wastes all come back to earth. This is all done with solar power. These are all achieved under extreme temperature, pressure and zero gravity in space. ZWD can be achieved on earth under much less fluctuations in temperature, pressure and normal gravity environment. ZWD systems are not expensive and will have multiple beneficial returns on investment which are both financially and environmentally acceptable. The paper will include successful case histories since the mid-1970s. ZWD discharge can be applied to the following types of projects: nuclear and coal fire power plants with a closed loop system that will eliminate thermal water discharge; residential communities with wastewater treatment sump and recycle the water use as a secondary water supply; waste water treatment Plants with complete water recycling including water distillation to produce distilled water by very economical 24-hours solar power plant. Landfill remediation is based on neutralization of landfilled gas odor and preventing anaerobic leachate formation. It is an aerobic condition which will render landfill gas emission explosion proof. Desert development is the development of recovering soil moisture from soil and completing a closed loop water cycle by solar energy within and underneath an enclosed greenhouse. Salt-alkali land development can be achieved by solar distillation of salty shallow water into distilled water. The distilled water can be used for soil washing and irrigation and complete a closed loop water cycle with energy and water conservation. Heavy metals remediation can be achieved by precipitation of dissolved toxic metals below the plant or vegetation root zone by solar electricity without pumping and treating. Soil and groundwater remediation - abandoned refineries, chemical and pesticide factories can be remediated by in-situ electrobiochemical and bioventing treatment method without pumping or excavation. Toxic organic chemicals are oxidized into carbon dioxide and heavy metals precipitated below plant and vegetation root zone. New water sources: low temperature distilled water can be recycled for repeated use within a greenhouse environment by solar distillation; nano bubble water can be made from the distilled water with nano bubbles of oxygen, nitrogen and carbon dioxide from air (fertilizer water) and also eliminate the use of pesticides because the nano oxygen will break the insect growth chain in the larvae state. Three dimensional high yield greenhouses can be constructed by complete water recycling using the vadose zone soil as a filter with no farming wastewater discharge.

Keywords: greenhouses, no discharge, remediation of soil and water, wastewater

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40 Exposing The Invisible

Authors: Kimberley Adamek

Abstract:

According to the Council on Tall Buildings, there has been a rapid increase in the construction of tall or “megatall” buildings over the past two decades. Simultaneously, the New England Journal of Medicine has reported that there has been a steady increase in climate related natural disasters since the 1970s; the eastern expansion of the USA's infamous Tornado Alley being just one of many current issues. In the future, this could mean that tall buildings, which already guide high speed winds down to pedestrian levels would have to withstand stronger forces and protect pedestrians in more extreme ways. Although many projects are required to be verified within wind tunnels and a handful of cities such as San Francisco have included wind testing within building code standards, there are still many examples where wind is only considered for basic loading. This typically results in and an increase of structural expense and unwanted mitigation strategies that are proposed late within a project. When building cities, architects rarely consider how each building alters the invisible patterns of wind and how these alterations effect other areas in different ways later on. It is not until these forces move, overpower and even destroy cities that people take notice. For example, towers have caused winds to blow objects into people (Walkie-Talkie Tower, Leeds, England), cause building parts to vibrate and produce loud humming noises (Beetham Tower, Manchester), caused wind tunnels in streets as well as many other issues. Alternatively, there exist towers which have used their form to naturally draw in air and ventilate entire facilities in order to eliminate the needs for costly HVAC systems (The Met, Thailand) and used their form to increase wind speeds to generate electricity (Bahrain Tower, Dubai). Wind and weather exist and effect all parts of the world in ways such as: Science, health, war, infrastructure, catastrophes, tourism, shopping, media and materials. Working in partnership with a leading wind engineering company RWDI, a series of tests, images and animations documenting discovered interactions of different building forms with wind will be collected to emphasize the possibilities for wind use to architects. A site within San Francisco (due to its increasing tower development, consistently wind conditions and existing strict wind comfort criteria) will host a final design. Iterations of this design will be tested within the wind tunnel and computational fluid dynamic systems which will expose, utilize and manipulate wind flows to create new forms, technologies and experiences. Ultimately, this thesis aims to question the amount which the environment is allowed to permeate building enclosures, uncover new programmatic possibilities for wind in buildings, and push the boundaries of working with the wind to ensure the development and safety of future cities. This investigation will improve and expand upon the traditional understanding of wind in order to give architects, wind engineers as well as the general public the ability to broaden their scope in order to productively utilize this living phenomenon that everyone constantly feels but cannot see.

Keywords: wind engineering, climate, visualization, architectural aerodynamics

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39 An Evaluation of a Prototype System for Harvesting Energy from Pressurized Pipeline Networks

Authors: Nicholas Aerne, John P. Parmigiani

Abstract:

There is an increasing desire for renewable and sustainable energy sources to replace fossil fuels. This desire is the result of several factors. First, is the role of fossil fuels in climate change. Scientific data clearly shows that global warming is occurring. It has also been concluded that it is highly likely human activity; specifically, the combustion of fossil fuels, is a major cause of this warming. Second, despite the current surplus of petroleum, fossil fuels are a finite resource and will eventually become scarce and alternatives, such as clean or renewable energy will be needed. Third, operations to obtain fossil fuels such as fracking, off-shore oil drilling, and strip mining are expensive and harmful to the environment. Given these environmental impacts, there is a need to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy sources as a primary energy source. Various sources of renewable energy exist. Many familiar sources obtain renewable energy from the sun and natural environments of the earth. Common examples include solar, hydropower, geothermal heat, ocean waves and tides, and wind energy. Often obtaining significant energy from these sources requires physically-large, sophisticated, and expensive equipment (e.g., wind turbines, dams, solar panels, etc.). Other sources of renewable energy are from the man-made environment. An example is municipal water distribution systems. The movement of water through the pipelines of these systems typically requires the reduction of hydraulic pressure through the use of pressure reducing valves. These valves are needed to reduce upstream supply-line pressures to levels suitable downstream users. The energy associated with this reduction of pressure is significant but is currently not harvested and is simply lost. While the integrity of municipal water supplies is of paramount importance, one can certainly envision means by which this lost energy source could be safely accessed. This paper provides a technical description and analysis of one such means by the technology company InPipe Energy to generate hydroelectricity by harvesting energy from municipal water distribution pressure reducing valve stations. Specifically, InPipe Energy proposes to install hydropower turbines in parallel with existing pressure reducing valves in municipal water distribution systems. InPipe Energy in partnership with Oregon State University has evaluated this approach and built a prototype system at the O. H. Hinsdale Wave Research Lab. The Oregon State University evaluation showed that the prototype system rapidly and safely initiates, maintains, and ceases power production as directed. The outgoing water pressure remained constant at the specified set point throughout all testing. The system replicates the functionality of the pressure reducing valve and ensures accurate control of down-stream pressure. At a typical water-distribution-system pressure drop of 60 psi the prototype, operating at an efficiency 64%, produced approximately 5 kW of electricity. Based on the results of this study, this proposed method appears to offer a viable means of producing significant amounts of clean renewable energy from existing pressure reducing valves.

Keywords: pressure reducing valve, renewable energy, sustainable energy, water supply

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38 Bio-Hub Ecosystems: Investment Risk Analysis Using Monte Carlo Techno-Economic Analysis

Authors: Kimberly Samaha

Abstract:

In order to attract new types of investors into the emerging Bio-Economy, new methodologies to analyze investment risk are needed. The Bio-Hub Ecosystem model was developed to address a critical area of concern within the global energy market regarding the use of biomass as a feedstock for power plants. This study looked at repurposing existing biomass-energy plants into Circular Zero-Waste Bio-Hub Ecosystems. A Bio-Hub model that first targets a ‘whole-tree’ approach and then looks at the circular economics of co-hosting diverse industries (wood processing, aquaculture, agriculture) in the vicinity of the Biomass Power Plants facilities. This study modeled the economics and risk strategies of cradle-to-cradle linkages to incorporate the value-chain effects on capital/operational expenditures and investment risk reductions using a proprietary techno-economic model that incorporates investment risk scenarios utilizing the Monte Carlo methodology. The study calculated the sequential increases in profitability for each additional co-host on an operating forestry-based biomass energy plant in West Enfield, Maine. Phase I starts with the base-line of forestry biomass to electricity only and was built up in stages to include co-hosts of a greenhouse and a land-based shrimp farm. Phase I incorporates CO2 and heat waste streams from the operating power plant in an analysis of lowering and stabilizing the operating costs of the agriculture and aquaculture co-hosts. Phase II analysis incorporated a jet-fuel biorefinery and its secondary slip-stream of biochar which would be developed into two additional bio-products: 1) A soil amendment compost for agriculture and 2) A biochar effluent filter for the aquaculture. The second part of the study applied the Monte Carlo risk methodology to illustrate how co-location derisks investment in an integrated Bio-Hub versus individual investments in stand-alone projects of energy, agriculture or aquaculture. The analyzed scenarios compared reductions in both Capital and Operating Expenditures, which stabilizes profits and reduces the investment risk associated with projects in energy, agriculture, and aquaculture. The major findings of this techno-economic modeling using the Monte Carlo technique resulted in the masterplan for the first Bio-Hub to be built in West Enfield, Maine. In 2018, the site was designated as an economic opportunity zone as part of a Federal Program, which allows for Capital Gains tax benefits for investments on the site. Bioenergy facilities are currently at a critical juncture where they have an opportunity to be repurposed into efficient, profitable and socially responsible investments, or be idled and scrapped. The Bio-hub Ecosystems techno-economic analysis model is a critical model to expedite new standards for investments in circular zero-waste projects. Profitable projects will expedite adoption and advance the critical transition from the current ‘take-make-dispose’ paradigm inherent in the energy, forestry and food industries to a more sustainable Bio-Economy paradigm that supports local and rural communities.

Keywords: bio-economy, investment risk, circular design, economic modelling

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37 Development of a Psychometric Testing Instrument Using Algorithms and Combinatorics to Yield Coupled Parameters and Multiple Geometric Arrays in Large Information Grids

Authors: Laith F. Gulli, Nicole M. Mallory

Abstract:

The undertaking to develop a psychometric instrument is monumental. Understanding the relationship between variables and events is important in structural and exploratory design of psychometric instruments. Considering this, we describe a method used to group, pair and combine multiple Philosophical Assumption statements that assisted in development of a 13 item psychometric screening instrument. We abbreviated our Philosophical Assumptions (PA)s and added parameters, which were then condensed and mathematically modeled in a specific process. This model produced clusters of combinatorics which was utilized in design and development for 1) information retrieval and categorization 2) item development and 3) estimation of interactions among variables and likelihood of events. The psychometric screening instrument measured Knowledge, Assessment (education) and Beliefs (KAB) of New Addictions Research (NAR), which we called KABNAR. We obtained an overall internal consistency for the seven Likert belief items as measured by Cronbach’s α of .81 in the final study of 40 Clinicians, calculated by SPSS 14.0.1 for Windows. We constructed the instrument to begin with demographic items (degree/addictions certifications) for identification of target populations that practiced within Outpatient Substance Abuse Counseling (OSAC) settings. We then devised education items, beliefs items (seven items) and a modifiable “barrier from learning” item that consisted of six “choose any” choices. We also conceptualized a close relationship between identifying various degrees and certifications held by Outpatient Substance Abuse Therapists (OSAT) (the demographics domain) and all aspects of their education related to EB-NAR (past and present education and desired future training). We placed a descriptive (PA)1tx in both demographic and education domains to trace relationships of therapist education within these two domains. The two perceptions domains B1/b1 and B2/b2 represented different but interrelated perceptions from the therapist perspective. The belief items measured therapist perceptions concerning EB-NAR and therapist perceptions using EB-NAR during the beginning of outpatient addictions counseling. The (PA)s were written in simple words and descriptively accurate and concise. We then devised a list of parameters and appropriately matched them to each PA and devised descriptive parametric (PA)s in a domain categorized information grid. Descriptive parametric (PA)s were reduced to simple mathematical symbols. This made it easy to utilize parametric (PA)s into algorithms, combinatorics and clusters to develop larger information grids. By using matching combinatorics we took paired demographic and education domains with a subscript of 1 and matched them to the column with each B domain with subscript 1. Our algorithmic matching formed larger information grids with organized clusters in columns and rows. We repeated the process using different demographic, education and belief domains and devised multiple information grids with different parametric clusters and geometric arrays. We found benefit combining clusters by different geometric arrays, which enabled us to trace parametric variables and concepts. We were able to understand potential differences between dependent and independent variables and trace relationships of maximum likelihoods.

Keywords: psychometric, parametric, domains, grids, therapists

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36 Hydrodynamic Characterisation of a Hydraulic Flume with Sheared Flow

Authors: Daniel Rowe, Christopher R. Vogel, Richard H. J. Willden

Abstract:

The University of Oxford’s recirculating water flume is a combined wave and current test tank with a 1 m depth, 1.1 m width, and 10 m long working section, and is capable of flow speeds up to 1 ms−1 . This study documents the hydrodynamic characteristics of the facility in preparation for experimental testing of horizontal axis tidal stream turbine models. The turbine to be tested has a rotor diameter of 0.6 m and is a modified version of one of two model-scale turbines tested in previous experimental campaigns. An Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter (ADV) was used to measure the flow at high temporal resolution at various locations throughout the flume, enabling the spatial uniformity and turbulence flow parameters to be investigated. The mean velocity profiles exhibited high levels of spatial uniformity at the design speed of the flume, 0.6 ms−1 , with variations in the three-dimensional velocity components on the order of ±1% at the 95% confidence level, along with a modest streamwise acceleration through the measurement domain, a target 5 m working section of the flume. A high degree of uniformity was also apparent for the turbulence intensity, with values ranging between 1-2% across the intended swept area of the turbine rotor. The integral scales of turbulence exhibited a far higher degree of variation throughout the water column, particularly in the streamwise and vertical scales. This behaviour is believed to be due to the high signal noise content leading to decorrelation in the sampling records. To achieve more realistic levels of vertical velocity shear in the flume, a simple procedure to practically generate target vertical shear profiles in open-channel flows is described. Here, the authors arranged a series of non-uniformly spaced parallel bars placed across the width of the flume and normal to the onset flow. By adjusting the resistance grading across the height of the working section, the downstream profiles could be modified accordingly, characterised by changes in the velocity profile power law exponent, 1/n. Considering the significant temporal variation in a tidal channel, the choice of the exponent denominator, n = 6 and n = 9, effectively provides an achievable range around the much-cited value of n = 7 observed at many tidal sites. The resulting flow profiles, which we intend to use in future turbine tests, have been characterised in detail. The results indicate non-uniform vertical shear across the survey area and reveal substantial corner flows, arising from the differential shear between the target vertical and cross-stream shear profiles throughout the measurement domain. In vertically sheared flow, the rotor-equivalent turbulence intensity ranges between 3.0-3.8% throughout the measurement domain for both bar arrangements, while the streamwise integral length scale grows from a characteristic dimension on the order of the bar width, similar to the flow downstream of a turbulence-generating grid. The experimental tests are well-defined and repeatable and serve as a reference for other researchers who wish to undertake similar investigations.

Keywords: acoustic doppler Velocimeter, experimental hydrodynamics, open-channel flow, shear profiles, tidal stream turbines

Procedia PDF Downloads 54