Search results for: distribution utility

Authors: Sony Hartono, Azka Decana, Vilia Yohana, Annisa Luthfianihuda, Yuni Faizah, Tati Andriani, Dewi Kania, Fachri Zulfiqar, Sugiar Yusup, Arman Nugraha

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Landslide is a geological hazard that is quite common in some areas in Indonesia and have disadvantages impact for public around. Due to the high frequency of landslides in Indonesia, and extensive damage, landslides should be specifically noted. Landslides caused by a soil or rock unit that has been in a state of unstable slopes and not in ideal state again, so the value of ground resistance or the rock been passed by the value of the forces acting on the slope. Based on this fact, authors held a geological engineering mapping at Muria Mountain, Kudus, Central Java province which is known as an agriculture and religion tourism area. This geological engineering mapping is performed to determine landslides potential at Muria Mountain. Slopes stability will be illustrated by a number called the “factor of safety” where the number can describe how much potential a slope to fall. Slopes stability can be different depending on the physical and mechanical characteristics of the soil and slope conditions. Testing of physical and mechanical characteristics of the soil conducted in the geotechnical laboratory. The characteristics of the soil must be same when sampled as well as in the test laboratory. To meet that requirement, authors used "undisturb sample" method that will be guarantee sample will not be distracted by environtment influences. From laboratory tests on soil physical and mechanical properties obtained characteristics of the soil on a slope, and then inserted into a Geological Information Software that would generate a value of factor of safety and give a visualization slope form area of research. Then, as a result of the study, obtained a map of the ground movement distribution map and i is implications for landslides potential areas.

Keywords: factor of safety, geological engineering mapping, landslides, slope stability, soil

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Authors: Endalew Jibat, Feyera Senbeta, Tesfaye Zeleke, Fitsum Hagos

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Water governance considers multi-sector participation beyond the state; and for sustainable use of water resources, appropriate laws, policies, regulations, and institutions needs to be developed and put in place. Water policy, a critical and integral instrument of water governance, guided water use schemes and ensures equitable water distribution among users. The Ethiopian Central Rift Valley (CRV) is wealthy of water resources, but these water resources are currently under severe strain owing to an imbalance in human-water interactions. The main aim of the study was to examine the state of water resources governance in the CRV of Ethiopia, and the impact of the Ethiopian Water Resources Management Policy on water governance. Key informant interviews (KII), focused group discussions, and document reviews were used to gather data for the study. The NVivo 11 program was used to organize, code, and analyze the data. The results revealed that water resources governance practices such as water allocation and apportionment, comprehensive and integrated water management plans, water resources protection, and conservation activities were rarely implemented. Water resources management policy mechanisms were not fully put in place. Lack of coherence in water policy implementation, absence of clear roles and responsibilities of stakeholders, absence of transparency and accountability in irrigation water service delivery, and lack of meaningful participation of key actors in water governance decision-making were the primary shortcomings observed. Factors such as over-abstraction, deterioration of buffer zone, and chemical erosion from surrounding farming have contributed to the reduction in water volume and quality in the CRV. These challenges have influenced aquatic ecosystem services and threaten the livelihoods of the surrounding communities. Hence, reforms relating to policy coherence and enforcement, stakeholder involvement, water distribution strategies, and the application of water governance principles must be given more emphasis.

Keywords: water resources, irrigation, governance, water allocation, governance principles, stakeholders engagement, central rift valley

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Authors: Nousheen Hashmi, Shoab Ahmad Khan

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Active collaboration among the green energy sources and the load demand leads to serious issues related to power quality and stability. The growing number of green energy resources and Distributed-Generators need newer strategies to be incorporated for their operations to keep the power energy stability among green energy resources and micro-grid/Utility Grid. This paper presents a novel technique for energy power management in Grid-Connected Photovoltaic with energy storage system under set of constraints including weather conditions, Load Shedding Hours, Peak pricing Hours by using rule-based fuzzy smart grid controller to schedule power coming from multiple Power sources (photovoltaic, grid, battery) under the above set of constraints. The technique fuzzifies all the inputs and establishes fuzzify rule set from fuzzy outputs before defuzzification. Simulations are run for 24 hours period and rule base power scheduler is developed. The proposed fuzzy controller control strategy is able to sense the continuous fluctuations in Photovoltaic power generation, Load Demands, Grid (load Shedding patterns) and Battery State of Charge in order to make correct and quick decisions.The suggested Fuzzy Rule-based scheduler can operate well with vague inputs thus doesn’t not require any exact numerical model and can handle nonlinearity. This technique provides a framework for the extension to handle multiple special cases for optimized working of the system.

Keywords: photovoltaic, power, fuzzy logic, distributed generators, state of charge, load shedding, membership functions

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Authors: Saurabh Basu, Sudin Ganguly

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Conductance in graphene nanoribbons (GNR) in presence of magnetic (for example, Iron) and non-magnetic (for example, Gold) adatoms are explored theoretically within a Kane-Mele model for their possible spintronic applications and topologically non-trivial properties. In our work, we have considered the magnetic adatoms to induce a Rashba spin-orbit coupling (RSOC) and an exchange bias field, while the non-magnetic ones induce an RSOC and an intrinsic spin-orbit (SO) coupling. Even though RSOC is present in both, they, however, represent very different physical situations, where the magnetic adatoms do not preserve the time reversal symmetry, while the non-magnetic case does. This has important implications on the topological properties. For example, the non-magnetic adatoms, for moderately strong values of SO, the GNR denotes a quantum spin Hall insulator as evident from a 2e²/h plateau in the longitudinal conductance and presence of distinct conducting edge states with an insulating bulk. Since the edge states are protected by time reversal symmetry, the magnetic adatoms in GNR yield trivial insulators and do not possess any non-trivial topological property. However, they have greater utility than the non-magnetic adatoms from the point of view of spintronic applications. Owing to the broken spatial symmetry induced by the presence of adatoms of either type, all the x, y and z components of the spin-polarized conductance become non-zero (only the y-component survives in pristine Graphene owing to a mirror symmetry present there) and hence become suitable for spintronic applications. However, the values of the spin polarized conductances are at least two orders of magnitude larger in the case of magnetic adatoms than their non-magnetic counterpart, thereby ensuring more efficient spintronic applications. Further the applications are tunable by altering the adatom densities.

Keywords: magnetic and non-magnetic adatoms, quantum spin hall phase, spintronic applications, spin polarized conductance, time reversal symmetry

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Authors: Sally Heyeon Hwang

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Within decision theory, there are normative principles that dictate how one should act in addition to empirical theories of actual behavior. As a normative guide to one’s actual behavior, evidential or causal decision-theoretic equations allow one to identify outcomes with maximal utility values. The choice that each person makes, however, will, of course, differ according to varying assignments of weight and probability values. Regarding these different choices, it remains a subject of considerable philosophical controversy whether individual subjects have the capacity to exercise free will with respect to the assignment of probabilities, or whether instead the assignment is in some way constrained. A version of this question is given a precise form in Richard Jeffrey’s assumption that free will is necessary for Newcomb’s paradox to count as a decision problem. This paper will argue, against Jeffrey, that decision theory does not require the assumption of libertarian freedom. One of the hallmarks of decision-making is its application across a wide variety of contexts; the implications of a background assumption of free will is similarly varied. One constant across the contexts of decision is that there are always at least two levels of choice for a given agent, depending on the degree of prior constraint. Within the context of Newcomb’s problem, when the predictor is attempting to guess the choice the agent will make, he or she is analyzing the determined aspects of the agent such as past characteristics, experiences, and knowledge. On the other hand, as David Lewis’ backtracking argument concerning the relationship between past and present events brings to light, there are similarly varied ways in which the past can actually be dependent on the present. One implication of this argument is that even in deterministic settings, an agent can have more free will than it may seem. This paper will thus argue against the view that a stable background assumption of free will or determinism in decision theory is necessary, arguing instead for a compatibilist decision theory yielding a novel treatment of Newcomb’s problem.

Keywords: decision theory, compatibilism, free will, Newcomb’s problem

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Authors: George B. Abaka-Wood, Massimiliano Zanin, Jonas Addai-Mensah, William Skinner

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The versatility of froth flotation has made it vital in the beneficiation of rare earth elements minerals from either high or low-grade ores. There has been a significant increase in the quantity of iron oxide silicate-rich tailings generated from the extraction of primary commodities such as copper and gold in Australia, which have been identified to contain very low-grade rare earth oxides (≤ 1%). There is a vast knowledge gap in the beneficiation of rare earth oxides from such tailings. The aim of this research is to investigate the feasibility of using fatty acids as collectors for the flotation recovery and upgrade of rare earth oxides from selected iron-oxide silicate-rich tailings. Two forms of fatty acid collectors (oleic acid and sodium oleate) were tested in this investigation. Flotation tests were carried out using a 1.2 L Denver D-12 cell. The effects of pulp pH, fatty acid dosage, particle size distribution (-150 +75 µm, -75 +38 µm and -38 µm) and conventional depressants (sodium silicate and starch) dosage on flotation recovery of rare earth oxides were investigated. A comparison of the flotation results indicated that sodium oleate was the more efficient fatty acid for rare earth oxides flotation at all the pulp pH investigated. The flotation performance was found to be particle size-dependent. Both sodium silicate and starch were unselective in decreasing the recovery of iron oxides and silicate minerals, respectively with the corresponding decrease in rare earth oxides recovery. Generally, iron oxides and silicate minerals formed the substantial fraction of the flotation concentrates obtained, both in the absence and presence of depressants, resulting in a generally low rare earth oxides upgrade, even though rare earth oxides recoveries were high. The flotation tests carried out on the tailings sample suggest the feasibility of rare earth oxides recovery using fatty acids, although particle size distribution and minerals liberation are key limiting factors in achieving selective rare earth oxides upgrade.

Keywords: depressants, flotation, oleic acid, sodium oleate

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Authors: Jagadeshvaran P. L., Kamlesh Panwar, Indumathi Ramakrishnan, Suryasarathi Bose

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The surge in the usage of wireless electronics and communication devices has engendered a different form of pollution, viz. the electromagnetic (EM) pollution and yet another serious issue, electromagnetic interference (EMI). There is a legitimate need to develop strategies and materials to combat this issue, otherwise leading to dreadful consequences. Functional textiles have emerged as the modern materials to help attenuate EM waves due to the numerous advantages – flexibility being the most important. In addition to this, there is an inherent advantage of multiple interfaces in coated fabrics that can engender significant attenuation. Herein we report a coating having multifunctional properties – capable of blocking both UV and EM radiation (predominantly of the microwave frequencies) with flame-retarding properties. The layer described here comprises iron titanate(FT) synthesized from its sustainable precursor – ilmenite sand and carbon nanotubes (CNT) dispersed in waterborne polyurethane. It is worth noting that FT's use as a multifunctional material is being reported for the first time. It was observed that a single layer of coated fabric shows EMI shielding effectiveness of -40 dB translating to 99.99% attenuation and similarly a UV blocking of 99.99% in the wavelength ranging from 200-400 nm. The microwave shielding properties of the fabric were demonstrated using a Bluetooth module – where the coated fabric was able to block the incoming Bluetooth signals to the module from a mobile phone. Besides, the coated fabrics exhibited phenomenal enhancement in thermal stability - a five percent increase in the limiting oxygen index (LOI) was observed upon the application of the coating. Such exceptional properties complement cotton fabrics' existing utility, thereby extending their use to specialty applications.

Keywords: multifunctional coatings, EMI shielding, UV blocking, iron titanate, CNT, waterborne polyurethane, cotton fabrics

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Authors: Tomiwa, Akinyemi Clement

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Tropical regions experience diverse and complex precipitation patterns, posing significant challenges for accurate rainfall estimation and forecasting. This study addresses the problem of effectively classifying tropical rain types and refining the Z-R (Reflectivity-Rain Rate) relationship to enhance rainfall estimation accuracy. Through a combination of remote sensing, meteorological analysis, and machine learning, the research aims to develop an advanced classification framework capable of distinguishing between different types of tropical rain based on their unique characteristics. This involves utilizing high-resolution satellite imagery, radar data, and atmospheric parameters to categorize precipitation events into distinct classes, providing a comprehensive understanding of tropical rain systems. Additionally, the study seeks to improve the Z-R relationship, a crucial aspect of rainfall estimation. One year of rainfall data was analyzed using a Micro Rain Radar (MRR) located at The Federal University of Technology Akure, Nigeria, measuring rainfall parameters from ground level to a height of 4.8 km with a vertical resolution of 0.16 km. Rain rates were classified into low (stratiform) and high (convective) based on various microstructural attributes such as rain rates, liquid water content, Drop Size Distribution (DSD), average fall speed of the drops, and radar reflectivity. By integrating diverse datasets and employing advanced statistical techniques, the study aims to enhance the precision of Z-R models, offering a more reliable means of estimating rainfall rates from radar reflectivity data. This refined Z-R relationship holds significant potential for improving our understanding of tropical rain systems and enhancing forecasting accuracy in regions prone to heavy precipitation.

Keywords: remote sensing, precipitation, drop size distribution, micro rain radar

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Authors: Yildirim Ortaoglan

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The attempt to make thought school-like by fitting it into various frameworks with the institutionalization of it is almost simultaneous with philosophy itself. What once sprouted in the “academia” of old has institutionalized under the enlightenment's light, becoming the fundamental space reflecting the spirit of its age. However, the shift from the thinking temple where truth's knowledge was sought to functional spaces where power/power relations are constructed indicates a significant rupture in the meaning of school. Therefore, a genealogical inquiry into the meaning of the school can provide us with a path toward understanding how it should be approached in contemporary times. From this perspective, it is essential to highlight how power/power relations operate in the school in terms of disciplinary practices, temporal management, and spatial organization to construct a distinct subjectivation. Recognizing that the changing and evolving nature of education is related to the structure of space can be understood by revealing how disciplinary power and bio-power, two fundamental aspects of genealogical research, operate. In disciplinary power, the relationship of the subject with discipline, temporal management, and space is about improvement and normalization, while in biopower, it manifests in maximizing utility, increasing free time, and constructing spaces that seem more vital. These indicators not only facilitate the formation of students as a subjectivation but also enable the condition of the possibility of power/power relations. Because power is not applied to subjects but used by them for passage, and behind this lies the idea that the individual is already one of the components of power. As one of the components of power, in terms of subjectivation type, the student is one of the primary targets of power relations. Therefore, conducting a genealogical inquiry of the student as a type of subjectivation and the school as its living area from the philosophical foundations of education may offer a new opportunity for thinking about the contemporary crisis of thought. Within the framework of this possibility, our investigation will consider which aspects of the school and the student, brought together for educational purposes, can be thought of within and beyond power/power relations.

Keywords: power, education, space, school, student, discipline

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Authors: Mojtaba Barzegar, Alireza Shirazi, Saied Rabi Mahdavi

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Intraoperative radiation therapy (IORT) is an innovative treatment modality that the delivery of a large single dose of radiation to the tumor bed during the surgery. The radiotherapy success depends on the absorbed dose delivered to the tumor. The achievement better accuracy in patient treatment depends upon the measured dose by standard dosimeter such as ionization chamber, but because of the high density of electric charge/pulse produced by the accelerator in the ionization chamber volume, the standard correction factor for ion recombination Ksat calculated with the classic two-voltage method is overestimated so the use of dose/pulse independent dosimeters such as chemical Fricke and ethanol chlorobenzene (ECB) dosimeters have been suggested. Dose measurement is usually calculated and calibrated in the Zmax. Ksat calculated by comparison of ion chamber response and ECB dosimeter at each applicator degree, size, and dose. The relative output factors for IORT applicators have been calculated and compared with experimentally determined values and the results simulated by Monte Carlo software. The absorbed doses have been calculated and measured with statistical uncertainties less than 0.7% and 2.5% consecutively. The relative differences between calculated and measured OF’s were up to 2.5%, for major OF’s the agreement was better. In these conditions, together with the relative absorbed dose calculations, the OF’s could be considered as an indication that the IORT electron beams have been well simulated. These investigations demonstrate the utility of the full Monte Carlo simulation of accelerator head with ECB dosimeter allow us to obtain detailed information of clinical IORT beams.

Keywords: intra operative radiotherapy, ethanol chlorobenzene, ksat, output factor, monte carlo simulation

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Authors: Rim Ben Amor, Myriam Abidi, Moncef Gueddari

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The purpose of the present study is to assess the level and the distribution of CaO, SO3, Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn incore sediments of Ghannouch-Gabes coast, Gulf of Gabes, Tunisian Mediterranean coast. The XRD analyses indicate that the sediments of Ghannouch-Gabes coast are mainly composed of quartz, calcite, gypsum and fluorine reflecting the impact of the phosphate fertilizer industrial waste. The vertical distribution of surface sediments shows for all the elements analyzed, that the area located between the commercial and the fishing port of Gabes, is the most polluted zone, where the two harbors acted as barriers and limited the dispersion of phosphogypsum discharge. The abundance order of metals was found to be Zn > Cd > Cu >Pb and that the highest levels of heavy metals were found in the uppermost segment of the sediment core compared to lower depth subsurface due to a continuous input of PG release and showed that the area between the two harbor suffered from several types of pollutants compared to reference core C1, collected from non-industrialized area. The level of pollution was evaluated using contamination factor (Cf), pollution load index (PLI) and the geoaccumulation index (Igeo). The obtained results of Igeo allowed us to distinguish that the area between the commercial harbor of Ghannouch and the fishing harbor of Gabes is the most polluted where sediments are strongly contaminated for Pb, Cu and Cd. The pollution load index (PLI) of all sediments collected classified them as "polluted". According to contamination factor (Cf), the sediments can be considered as ‘considerable’ to ‘very high’ contaminated for Pb, ‘very high to moderate’ for Cd, ‘ moderate’ for Zn, between ‘moderate’ and ‘considerable’ for Cu. Statistical analyses show that heavy metals, fluoride, calcium and sulphate are resulting from the same anthropogenic origin. The metallic pollution status of sediments of Ghanouch -Gabes coast is worrying and requires a serious intervention.

Keywords: trace metals, phosphogypsum, core sediments, accumulation factor, contamination factor

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Authors: X. King, E. Nazarzadeh, J. Reboud, J. Cooper

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Pulmonary diseases, such as asthma, are generally treated by the inhalation of aerosols that has the advantage of reducing the off-target (e.g., toxicity) effects associated with systemic delivery in blood. Effective respiratory drug delivery requires a droplet size distribution between 1 and 5 µm. Inhalation of aerosols with wide droplet size distribution, out of this range, results in deposition of drug in not-targeted area of the respiratory tract, introducing undesired side effects on the patient. In order to solely deliver the drug in the lower branches of the lungs and release it in a targeted manner, a control mechanism to produce the aerosolized droplets is required. To regulate the drug release and to facilitate the uptake from cells, drugs are often encapsulated into protective liposomes. However, a multistep process is required for their formation, often performed at the formulation step, therefore limiting the range of available drugs or their shelf life. Using surface acoustic waves (SAWs), a pulmonary drug delivery platform was produced, which enabled the formation of defined size aerosols and the formation of liposomes in situ. SAWs are mechanical waves, propagating along the surface of a piezoelectric substrate. They were generated using an interdigital transducer on lithium niobate with an excitation frequency of 9.6 MHz at a power of 1W. Disposable silicon superstrates were etched using photolithography and dry etch processes to create an array of cylindrical through-holes with different diameters and pitches. Superstrates were coupled with the SAW substrate through water-based gel. As the SAW propagates on the superstrate, it enables nebulisation of a lipid solution deposited onto it. The cylindrical cavities restricted the formation of large drops in the aerosol, while at the same time unilamellar liposomes were created. SAW formed liposomes showed a higher monodispersity compared to the control sample, as well as displayed, a faster production rate. To test the aerosol’s size, dynamic light scattering and laser diffraction methods were used, both showing the size control of the aerosolised particles. The use of silicon superstate with cavity size of 100-200 µm, produced an aerosol with a mean droplet size within the optimum range for pulmonary drug delivery, containing the liposomes in which the medicine could be loaded. Additionally, analysis of liposomes with Cryo-TEM showed formation of vesicles with narrow size distribution between 80-100 nm and optimal morphology in order to be used for drug delivery. Encapsulation of nucleic acids in liposomes through the developed SAW platform was also investigated. In vitro delivery of siRNA and DNA Luciferase were achieved using A549 cell line, lung carcinoma from human. In conclusion, SAW pulmonary drug delivery platform was engineered, in order to combine multiple time consuming steps (formation of liposomes, drug loading, nebulisation) into a unique platform with the aim of specifically delivering the medicament in a targeted area, reducing the drug’s side effects.

Keywords: acoustics, drug delivery, liposomes, surface acoustic waves

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Authors: Mona Mihailescu, Rebeca Tudor, Irina A. Paun, Cristian Kusko, Eugen I. Scarlat, Mihai Kusko

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Specific intensity distributions in the laser beams are required in many fields: optical communications, material processing, microscopy, optical tweezers. In optical communications, the information embedded in specific beams and the superposition of multiple beams can be used to increase the capacity of the communication channels, employing spatial modulation as an additional degree of freedom, besides already available polarization and wavelength multiplexing. In this regard, optical vortices present interest due to their potential to carry independent data which can be multiplexed at the transmitter and demultiplexed at the receiver. Also, in the literature were studied their combinations: 1) axial or perpendicular superposition of multiple optical vortices or 2) with other laser beam types: Bessel, Airy. Optical vortices, characterized by stationary ring-shape intensity and rotating phase, are achieved using computer generated holograms (CGH) obtained by simulating the interference between a tilted plane wave and a wave passing through a helical phase object. Here, we propose a method to combine information through the reunion of two CGHs. One is obtained using the helical phase distribution, characterized by its topological charge, m. The other is obtained using conical phase distribution, characterized by its radial factor, r0. Each CGH is obtained using plane wave with different tilts: km and kr for CGH generated from helical phase object and from conical phase object, respectively. These reunions of two CGHs are calculated to be phase optical elements, addressed on the liquid crystal display of a spatial light modulator, to optically process the incident beam for investigations of the diffracted intensity pattern in far field. For parallel reunion of two CGHs and high values of the ratio between km and kr, the bright ring from the first diffraction order, specific for optical vortices, is changed in an asymmetric intensity pattern: a number of circle arcs. Both diffraction orders (+1 and -1) are asymmetrical relative to each other. In different planes along the optical axis, it is observed that this asymmetric intensity pattern rotates around its centre: in the +1 diffraction order the rotation is anticlockwise and in the -1 diffraction order, the rotation is clockwise. The relation between m and r0 controls the diameter of the circle arcs and the ratio between km and kr controls the number of arcs. For perpendicular reunion of the two CGHs and low values of the ratio between km and kr, the optical vortices are multiplied and focalized in different planes, depending on the radial parameter. The first diffraction order contains information about both phase objects. It is incident on the phase masks placed at the receiver, computed using the opposite values for topological charge or for the radial parameter and displayed successively. In all, the proposed method is exploited in terms of constructive parameters, for the possibility offered by the combination of different types of beams which can be used in robust optical communications.

Keywords: asymmetrical diffraction orders, computer generated holograms, conical phase distribution, optical vortices, spatial light modulator

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Authors: Monika Saha, A. T. M. Hasan Zobeyer, Nasreen Jahan

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El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the interaction between atmosphere and ocean in tropical Pacific which causes inconsistent warm/cold weather in tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Due to the impact of climate change, ENSO events are becoming stronger in recent times, and therefore it is very important to study the influence of ENSO in climate studies. Bangladesh, being in the low-lying deltaic floodplain, experiences the worst consequences due to flooding every year. To reduce the catastrophe of severe flooding events, non-structural measures such as flood forecasting can be helpful in taking adequate precautions and steps. Forecasting seasonal flood with a longer lead time of several months is a key component of flood damage control and water management. The objective of this research is to identify the possible strength of teleconnection between ENSO and river flow of Surma and examine the potential possibility of long lead flood forecasting in the wet season. Surma is one of the major rivers of Bangladesh and is a part of the Surma-Meghna river system. In this research, sea surface temperature (SST) has been considered as the ENSO index and the lead time is at least a few months which is greater than the basin response time. The teleconnection has been assessed by the correlation analysis between July-August-September (JAS) flow of Surma and SST of Nino 4 region of the corresponding months. Cumulative frequency distribution of standardized JAS flow of Surma has also been determined as part of assessing the possible teleconnection. Discharge data of Surma river from 1975 to 2015 is used in this analysis, and remarkable increased value of correlation coefficient between flow and ENSO has been observed from 1985. From the cumulative frequency distribution of the standardized JAS flow, it has been marked that in any year the JAS flow has approximately 50% probability of exceeding the long-term average JAS flow. During El Nino year (warm episode of ENSO) this probability of exceedance drops to 23% and while in La Nina year (cold episode of ENSO) it increases to 78%. Discriminant analysis which is known as 'Categoric Prediction' has been performed to identify the possibilities of long lead flood forecasting. It has helped to categorize the flow data (high, average and low) based on the classification of predicted SST (warm, normal and cold). From the discriminant analysis, it has been found that for Surma river, the probability of a high flood in the cold period is 75% and the probability of a low flood in the warm period is 33%. A synoptic parameter, forecasting index (FI) has also been calculated here to judge the forecast skill and to compare different forecasts. This study will help the concerned authorities and the stakeholders to take long-term water resources decisions and formulate policies on river basin management which will reduce possible damage of life, agriculture, and property.

Keywords: El Nino-Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature, surma river, teleconnection, cumulative frequency distribution, discriminant analysis, forecasting index

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Authors: A. Terfous, Y. Liu, A. Ghenaim, P. A. Garambois

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With increasing urbanization worldwide, it is crucial to sustainably manage sediment flows in urban networks and especially in stormwater detention basins. One key aspect is to propose optimized designs for detention tanks in order to best reduce flood peak flows and in the meantime settle particles. It is, therefore, necessary to understand complex flows patterns and sediment deposition conditions in stormwater detention basins. The aim of this paper is to study flow structure and particle deposition pattern for a given tank geometry in view to control and maximize sediment deposition. Both numerical simulation and experimental works were done to investigate the flow and sediment distribution in a storm tank with a cavity. As it can be indicated, the settle distribution of the particle in a rectangular tank is mainly determined by the flow patterns and the bed shear stress. The flow patterns in a rectangular tank differ with different geometry, entrance flow rate and the water depth. With the changing of flow patterns, the bed shear stress will change respectively, which also play an influence on the particle settling. The accumulation of the particle in the bed changes the conditions at the bottom, which is ignored in the investigations, however it worth much more attention, the influence of the accumulation of the particle on the sedimentation should be important. The approach presented here is based on the resolution of the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations to account for turbulent effects and also a passive particle transport model. An analysis of particle deposition conditions is presented in this paper in terms of flow velocities and turbulence patterns. Then sediment deposition zones are presented thanks to the modeling with particle tracking method. It is shown that two recirculation zones seem to significantly influence sediment deposition. Due to the possible overestimation of particle trap efficiency with standard wall functions and stick conditions, further investigations seem required for basal boundary conditions based on turbulent kinetic energy and shear stress. These observations are confirmed by experimental investigations processed in the laboratory.

Keywords: storm sewers, sediment deposition, numerical simulation, experimental investigation

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Authors: E. T. L. Cöuras Ford, V. A. C. Vale, J. U. L. Mendes

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Two of the objective principal in the study of the aerodynamics of vehicles are the safety and the acting. Those objectives can be reached through the development of devices modify the drainage of air about of the vehicle and also through alterations in the way of the external surfaces. The front lowest profile of the vehicle, for instance, has great influence on the coefficient of aerodynamic penetration (Cx) and later on great part of the pressure distribution along the surface of the vehicle. The objective of this work was of analyzing the aerodynamic behavior that it happens on some types the trucks of vehicles, based on experimentation in aerodynamic tunnel, seeking to determine the aerodynamic efficiency of each one of them.

Keywords: aerodynamic, vehicles, wind tunnel, safety, acting

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Authors: Adrian Hang Yue Siu, Matthew Holyland, Sharon Carey, Daniel Steffens, Nabila Ansari, Cherry E. Koh

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Introduction: Peritoneal malignancies are challenging cancers to manage. While cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS and HIPEC) may offer a cure, it’s considered radical and morbid. Pre-emptive identification of deconditioned patients for optimization may mitigate the risks of surgery. However, the difficulty lies in the scarcity of validated predictive tools to identify high-risk patients. In recent times, there has been growing interest in sarcopenia, which can occur as a result of malnutrition and malignancies. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the utility of sarcopenia in predicting post-operative outcomes. Methods: A single quaternary-center retrospective study of CRS and HIPEC patients between 2017-2020 was conducted to determine the association between pre-operative sarcopenia and post-operative outcomes. Lumbar CT images were analyzed using Slice-o-matic® to measure sarcopenia. Results : Cohort (n=94) analysis found that 40% had sarcopenia, with a majority being female (53.2%) and a mean age of 55 years. Sarcopenia was statistically associated with decreased weight compared to non-sarcopenia patients, 72.7kg vs. 82.2kg (p=0.014) and shorter overall survival, 1.4 years vs. 2.1 years (p=0.032). Post-operatively, patients with sarcopenia experienced more post-operative complications (p=0.001). Conclusion: Complex procedures often require optimization to prevent complications and improve survival. While patient biomarkers – BMI and weight – are used for optimization, this research advocates for the identification of sarcopenia status for pre-operative planning. Sarcopenia may be an indicator of advanced disease requiring further treatment and is an emerging area of research. Larger studies are required to confirm these findings and to assess the reversibility of sarcopenia after surgery.

Keywords: sarcopaenia, cytoreductive surgery, hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy, surgical oncology

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Authors: Q. Ni, J. A. Serna, D. Holland, X. Wang

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The objective of this study is to develop Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) techniques to enhance bone related research applied on normal and disuse (Biglycan knockout) mice bone in vitro by using both low-field and high-field NMR simultaneously. It is known that the total amplitude of T₂ relaxation envelopes, measured by the Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill NMR spin echo train (CPMG), is a representation of the liquid phase inside the pores. Therefore, the NMR CPMG magnetization amplitude can be transferred to the volume of water after calibration with the NMR signal amplitude of the known volume of the selected water. In this study, the distribution of mobile water, porosity that can be determined by using low-field (20 MHz) CPMG relaxation technique, and the pore size distributions can be determined by a computational inversion relaxation method. It is also known that the total proton intensity of magnetization from the NMR free induction decay (FID) signal is due to the water present inside the pores (mobile water), the water that has undergone hydration with the bone (bound water), and the protons in the collagen and mineral matter (solid-like protons). Therefore, the components of total mobile and bound water within bone that can be determined by low-field NMR free induction decay technique. Furthermore, the bound water in solid phase (mineral and organic constituents), especially, the dominated component of calcium hydroxyapatite (Ca₁₀(OH)₂(PO₄)₆) can be determined by using high-field (400 MHz) magic angle spinning (MAS) NMR. With MAS technique reducing NMR spectral linewidth inhomogeneous broadening and susceptibility broadening of liquid-solid mix, in particular, we can conduct further research into the ¹H and ³¹P elements and environments of bone materials to identify the locations of bound water such as OH- group within minerals and bone architecture. We hypothesize that with low-field and high-field magic angle spinning NMR can provide a more complete interpretation of water distribution, particularly, in bound water, and these data are important to access bone quality and predict the mechanical behavior of bone.

Keywords: bone, mice bone, NMR, water in bone

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Authors: Thomas Louis, Irina Primac, Florent Morfoisse, Tania Durre, Silvia Blacher, Agnes Noel

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In vitro and in vivo lymphangiogenesis assays are essential for the identification of potential lymphangiogenic agents and the screening of pharmacological inhibitors. In the present study, we analyse three biological models: in vitro lymphatic endothelial cell spheroids, in vivo ear sponge assay, and in vivo lymph node colonisation by tumour cells. These assays provide suitable 3D models to test pro- and anti-lymphangiogenic factors or drugs. 3D images were acquired by confocal laser scanning and light sheet fluorescence microscopy. Virtual scan microscopy followed by 3D reconstruction by image aligning methods was also used to obtain 3D images of whole large sponge and ganglion samples. 3D reconstruction, image segmentation, skeletonisation, and other image processing algorithms are described. Fixed and time-lapse imaging techniques are used to analyse lymphatic endothelial cell spheroids behaviour. The study of cell spatial distribution in spheroid models enables to detect interactions between cells and to identify invasion hierarchy and guidance patterns. Global measurements such as volume, length, and density of lymphatic vessels are measured in both in vivo models. Branching density and tortuosity evaluation are also proposed to determine structure complexity. Those properties combined with vessel spatial distribution are evaluated in order to determine lymphangiogenesis extent. Lymphatic endothelial cell invasion and lymphangiogenesis were evaluated under various experimental conditions. The comparison of these conditions enables to identify lymphangiogenic agents and to better comprehend their roles in the lymphangiogenesis process. The proposed methodology is validated by its application on the three presented models.

Keywords: 3D image segmentation, 3D image skeletonisation, cell invasion, confocal microscopy, ear sponges, light sheet microscopy, lymph nodes, lymphangiogenesis, spheroids

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Authors: Jianhua Zhang, Weiping Chen, Guanjie Chen, Jason Flannick, Emma Fikse, Glenda Smerin, Yanqin Yang, Yulong Li, John A. Hanover, William F. Simonds

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Ethnic disparities in many diseases are well recognized and reflect the consequences of genetic, behavior, and environmental factors. However, direct scientific evidence connecting the ethnic genetic variations and the disease disparities has been elusive, which may have led to the ethnic inequalities in large scale genetic studies. Through the genome-wide analysis of data representing 185,934 subjects, including 14,955 from our own studies of the African America Diabetes Mellitus, we discovered sets of genetic variants either unique to or conserved in all ethnicities. We further developed a quantitative gene function-based high-risk variant index (hrVI) of 20,428 genes to establish profiles that strongly correlate with the subjects' self-identified ethnicities. With respect to the ability to detect human essential and pathogenic genes, the hrVI analysis method is both comparable with and complementary to the well-known genetic analysis methods, pLI and VIRlof. Application of the ethnicity-specific hrVI analysis to the type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) national repository, containing 20,791 cases and 24,440 controls, identified 114 candidate T2DM-associated genes, 8.8-fold greater than that of ethnicity-blind analysis. All the genes identified are defined as either pathogenic or likely-pathogenic in ClinVar database, with 33.3% diabetes-associated and 54.4% obesity-associated genes. These results demonstrate the utility of hrVI analysis and provide the first genetic evidence by clustering patterns of how genetic variations among ethnicities may impede the discovery of diabetes and foreseeably other disease-associated genes.

Keywords: diabetes-associated genes, ethnic health disparities, high-risk variant index, hrVI, T2DM

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Authors: Claudia Martínez-Araneda, Mariella Gutiérrez, Pedro Gómez, Diego Maldonado, Alejandra Segura, Christian Vidal-Castro

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The purpose of this document is to showcase the preliminary work in developing an EduChatbot-type tool and measuring the effects of its use aimed at providing effective feedback to students in programming courses. This bot, hereinafter referred to as tutorBot+, was constructed based on chatGPT and is tasked with assisting and delivering timely positive feedback to students in the field of computer science at the Universidad Católica de Concepción. The proposed working method consists of four stages: (1) Immersion in the domain of Large Language Models (LLMs), (2) Development of the tutorBot+ prototype and integration, (3) Experiment design, and (4) Intervention. The first stage involves a literature review on the use of artificial intelligence in education and the evaluation of intelligent tutors, as well as research on types of feedback for learning and the domain of chatGPT. The second stage encompasses the development of tutorBot+, and the final stage involves a quasi-experimental study with students from the Programming and Database labs, where the learning outcome involves the development of computational thinking skills, enabling the use and measurement of the tool's effects. The preliminary results of this work are promising, as a functional chatBot prototype has been developed in both conversational and non-conversational versions integrated into an open-source online judge and programming contest platform system. There is also an exploration of the possibility of generating a custom model based on a pre-trained one tailored to the domain of programming. This includes the integration of the created tool and the design of the experiment to measure its utility.

Keywords: assessment, chatGPT, learning strategies, LLMs, timely feedback

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Authors: Jennifer M. Glennon, Hana D'Souza, Luke Mason, Annette Karmiloff-Smith, Michael S. C. Thomas

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Genetic syndrome groups that feature high rates of autism comorbidity, like Down syndrome (DS) and fragile X syndrome (FXS), have been presented as useful models for understanding risk and protective factors involved in the emergence of autistic traits. Yet despite reaching clinical thresholds, these ‘syndromic’ forms of autism appear to differ in important ways from the idiopathic or ‘non-syndromic’ autism phenotype. To uncover the true nature of these comorbidities, it is necessary to extend definitions of autism to include the cognitive characteristics of the disorder and to then apply this broadened conceptualisation to the study of syndromic autism profiles. The current study employs a variety of well-established eye-tracking paradigms to assess visual attentional performance in children with DS and FXS who reach thresholds for autism on the Social Communication Questionnaire. It investigates whether autism profiles in these children are accompanied by visual orienting difficulties (‘sticky attention’), decreased social attention, and enhanced visual search performance, all of which are characteristic of the idiopathic autism phenotype. Data is collected from children with DS and FXS aged between 6 and 10 years, in addition to two control groups matched on age and intellectual ability (i.e., children with idiopathic autism and neurotypical controls). Cross-sectional developmental trajectory analyses are conducted to enable visuo-attentional profile comparisons. Significant differences in the visuo-attentional processes underpinning autism presentations in children with FXS and DS are hypothesised, supporting notions of syndrome specificity. The study provides insight into the complex heterogeneity associated with syndromic autism presentations and autism per se, with clinical implications for the utility of autism intervention programmes in DS and FXS populations.

Keywords: autism, down syndrome, fragile X syndrome, eye tracking

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Authors: Aisha Arshad, Samina Naz Mukry, Tahir Shamsi

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Background: Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is an autoimmune disorder. Besides platelets counts, immature platelets fraction (IPF) can be used as tool to predict megakaryocytic activity in ITP patients. The clinical biomarkers like Neutrophils to lymphocytes ratio (NLR) and platelet to lymphocytes ratio(PLR) predicts inflammation and can be used as prognostic markers.The present study was planned to assess the ratios in ITP and their utility in predicting prognosis after treatment. Methods: A total of 111 patients of ITP with same number of healthy individuals were included in this case control study during the period of January 2015 to December 2017.All the ITP patients were grouped according to guidelines of International working group of ITP. A 3cc blood was collected in EDTA tube and blood parameters were evaluated using Sysmex 1000 analyzer.The ratios were calculated by using absolute counts of Neutrophils,Lymphocytes and platelets.The significant (p=<0.05) difference between ITP patients and healthy control groups was determined by Kruskal wallis test, Dunn’s test and spearman’s correlation test was done using SPSS version 23. Results: The significantly raised total leucocytes counts (TLC) and IPF along with low platelets counts were observed in ITP patients as compared to healthy controls.In ITP groups,very low platelet count with median and IQR of 2(3.8)3x109/l with highest mean and IQR IPF 25.4(19.8)% was observed in newly diagnosed ITP group. The NLR was high with prognosis of disease as higher levels were observed in P-ITP. The PLR was significantly low in ND-ITP ,P-ITP, C-ITP, R-ITP and compared to controls with p=<0.001 as platelet were less in number in all ITP patients. Conclusion: The IPF can be used in evaluation of bone marrow response in ITP. The simple, reliable and calculated NLR and PLR ratios can be used in predicting prognosis and response to treatment in ITP and to some extend the severity of disease.

Keywords: neutrophils, platelets, lymphocytes, infection

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Authors: Shahan Waheed, Muhammad Waqas, Asher Feroz

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Objectives: To determine the utility of base deficit in traumatic brain injury in assessing the severity and to correlate with the conventional computed tomography scales in grading the severity of head injury. Methodology: Observational cross-sectional study conducted in a tertiary care facility from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2012. All patients with isolated traumatic brain injury presenting within 24 hours of the injury to the emergency department were included in the study. Initial Glasgow Coma Scale and base deficit values were taken at presentation, the patients were followed during their hospital stay and CT scan brain findings were recorded and graded as per the Rotterdam scale, the findings were cross-checked by a radiologist, Glasgow Outcome Scale was taken on last follow up. Outcomes were dichotomized into favorable and unfavorable outcomes. Continuous variables with normal and non-normal distributions are reported as mean ± SD. Categorical variables are presented as frequencies and percentages. Relationship of the base deficit with GCS, GOS, CT scan brain and length of stay was calculated using Spearman`s correlation. Results: 154 patients were enrolled in the study. Mean age of the patients were 30 years and 137 were males. The severity of brain injuries as per the GCS was 34 moderate and 109 severe respectively. 34 percent of the total has an unfavorable outcome with a mean of 18±14. The correlation was significant at the 0.01 level with GCS on presentation and the base deficit 0.004. The correlation was not significant between the Rotterdam CT scan brain findings, length of stay and the base deficit. Conclusion: The base deficit was found to be a good predictor of severity of brain injury. There was no association of the severity of injuries on the CT scan brain as per the Rotterdam scale and the base deficit. Further studies with large sample size are needed to further evaluate the associations.

Keywords: base deficit, traumatic brain injury, Rotterdam, GCS

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Authors: Huseyn Nuraddin Qurbanov

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The reliable food supply of the population of the republic is one of the main directions of the state's economic policy. Grain growing, which is the basis of agriculture, is important in this area. In the cultivation of cereals on the slopes, the application of equal amounts of mineral fertilizers the under the soil before sowing is a very important technological process. The low level of technical equipment in this area prevents producers from providing the country with the necessary quality cereals. Experience in the operation of modern technical means has shown that, at present, there is a need to provide an equal amount of fertilizer on the slopes to under the soil, fully meeting the agro-technical requirements. No fundamental changes have been made to the industrial machines that fertilize the under the soil, and unequal application of fertilizers under the soil on the slopes has been applied. This technological process leads to the destruction of new seedlings and reduced productivity due to intolerance to frost during the winter for the plant planted in the fall. In special climatic conditions, there is an optimal fertilization rate for each agricultural product. The application of fertilizers to the soil is one of the conditions that increase their efficiency in the field. As can be seen, the development of a new technical proposal for fertilizing and plowing the slopes in equal amounts on the slopes, improving the technological and design parameters, and taking into account the physical and mechanical properties of fertilizers is very important. Taking into account the above-mentioned issues, a combined plough was developed in our laboratory. Combined plough carries out pre-sowing technological operation in the cultivation of cereals, providing a smooth equal amount of mineral fertilizers under the soil on the slopes. Mathematical models of a smooth spreader that evenly distributes fertilizers in the field have been developed. Thus, diagrams and graphs obtained without distribution on the 8 partitions of the smooth spreader are constructed under the inclined angles of the slopes. Percentage and productivity of equal distribution in the field were noted by practical and theoretical analysis.

Keywords: combined plough, mineral fertilizer, equal sowing, fertilizer norm, grain-crops, sowing fertilizer

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Authors: Alok Nahata

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Introduction: Nowadays, androgen-mediated diseases such as prostate cancer, hirsutism, acne, androgenic alopecia and benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) have become serious problems. The aim of the present study was to find out whether Ganoderma lucidum (GL) can be used as a clinically effective medicine for the management of prostatic hyperplasia. Methodology: In vitro studies were conducted to assess the 5α-reductase inhibitory potential of GL. Testosterone (3 mg/kg s.c.) was administered to the rats along with the test extracts (10, 20 and 50 mg/kg p.o for a period of 28 days. Finasteride was used as a positive control (1 mg/kg p.o.). Major Findings: GL extracts attenuated the increase in the prostate/body weight ratio (P/BW) induced by testosterone. Most of the values were significant when compared to testosterone-treated group and finasteride treated groups. Petroleum ether extract (50 mg/kg p.o.) exhibited the best activity (P < 0.01). Ethanolic extract (20 and 50 mg/kg p.o.) also exhibited significant activity (P < 0.01). The urine output also improved significantly (P < 0.01 in all groups as compared to standard finasteride), which emphasize the clinical implications of the study. Testosterone levels measured weekly and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels measured at the end of the study also support the findings. Histological studies suggested improvement in prostatic histoarchitecture in extract-treated groups as compared to the testosterone-treated group. Conclusion: Study clearly reflects the utility of extracts in BPH. Because of conversion of testosterone to dihydrotestosterone, the prostate size is increased, thereby causing obstruction in urinary output. The observed effect that extracts do not allow the increase as reflected by urinary output, P/BW ratios and histoarchitecture showed that activity of administered testosterone was blocked by the extract and resulted in recovery.

Keywords: benign prostatic hyperplasia, Ganoderma lucidum, prostate-specific antigen, 5α-reductase, testosterone

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Authors: Yassine Sadji

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Some architectural conditions required some shapes often lead to an irregular distribution of masses, rigidities, and resistances. The main object of the present study consists in estimating the influence of the irregularity both in plan and in elevation which presenting some structures on the dynamic characteristics and his influence on the behavior of this structures. To do this, it is necessary to make apply both dynamic methods proposed by the RPA99 (spectral modal method and method of analysis by accélérogramme) on certain similar prototypes and to analyze the parameters measuring the answer of these structures and to proceed to a comparison of the results.

Keywords: irregularity, seismic, response, structure, ductility

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Authors: Nida Rizvi, Deeksha Katyal, Varun Joshi

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River Hindon is an important river catering the demand of highly populated rural and industrial cluster of western Uttar Pradesh, India. Water quality of river Hindon is deteriorating at an alarming rate due to various industrial, municipal and agricultural activities. The present study aimed at identifying the pollution sources and quantifying the degree to which these sources are responsible for the deteriorating water quality of the river. Various water quality parameters, like pH, temperature, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, total hardness, calcium, chloride, nitrate, sulphate, biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand and total alkalinity were assessed. Water quality data obtained from eight study sites for one year has been subjected to the two multivariate techniques, namely, principal component analysis and cluster analysis. Principal component analysis was applied with the aim to find out spatial variability and to identify the sources responsible for the water quality of the river. Three Varifactors were obtained after varimax rotation of initial principal components using principal component analysis. Cluster analysis was carried out to classify sampling stations of certain similarity, which grouped eight different sites into two clusters. The study reveals that the anthropogenic influence (municipal, industrial, waste water and agricultural runoff) was the major source of river water pollution. Thus, this study illustrates the utility of multivariate statistical techniques for analysis and elucidation of multifaceted data sets, recognition of pollution sources/factors and understanding temporal/spatial variations in water quality for effective river water quality management.

Keywords: cluster analysis, multivariate statistical techniques, river Hindon, water quality

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Authors: Kristin Drexler

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Climate change has exacerbated food and livelihood insecurity for Mayan milpa farmers in Central America. For centuries, milpa farming has been sustainable for subsistence; however, in the last 50 years, milpas have become less reliable due to accelerating climate change, resource degradation, declining markets, poverty, and other factors. Using interviews with extension leaders and milpa farmers in Belize, this qualitative study examines the capacity for increasing climate-smart agriculture (CSA) aspects of existing traditional milpa practices, specifically no-burn mulching, soil enrichment, and the use of cover plants. Applying community capitals and socio-ecological systems frameworks, this study finds four key capitals were perceived by farmers and agriculture extension leaders as barriers for increasing CSA practices: (1) human-capacity, (2) financial, (3) infrastructure, and (4) governance-justice capitals. The key barriers include a lack of CSA technology and pest management knowledge-sharing (human-capacity), unreliable roads and utility services (infrastructure), the closure of small markets and crop-buying programs in Belize (financial), and constraints on extension services and exacerbating a sense of marginalization in Maya communities (governance-justice). Recommendations are presented for government action to reduce barriers and facilitate an increase in milpa crop productivity, promote food and livelihood security, and enable climate resilience of Mayan milpa communities in Belize.

Keywords: socio-ecological systems, community capitals, climate-smart agriculture, food security, milpa, Belize

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Authors: Saba Rahman, Arvind K. Jain, S. D. Bharti, T. K. Datta

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Chimneys are generally tall and slender structures with circular cross-sections, due to which they are highly prone to wind forces. Wind exerts pressure on the wall of the chimneys, which produces unwanted forces. Vortex-induced oscillation is one of such excitations which can lead to the failure of the chimneys. Therefore, vortex-induced oscillation of chimneys is of great concern to researchers and practitioners since many failures of chimneys due to vortex shedding have occurred in the past. As a consequence, extensive research has taken place on the subject over decades. Many laboratory experiments have been performed to verify the theoretical models proposed to predict vortex-induced forces, including aero-elastic effects. Comparatively, very few proto-type measurement data have been recorded to verify the proposed theoretical models. Because of this reason, the theoretical models developed with the help of experimental laboratory data are utilized for analyzing the chimneys for vortex-induced forces. This calls for reliability analysis of the predictions of the responses of the chimneys produced due to vortex shedding phenomena. Although several works of literature exist on the vortex-induced oscillation of chimneys, including code provisions, the reliability analysis of chimneys against failure caused due to vortex shedding is scanty. In the present study, the reliability analysis of chimneys against vortex shedding failure is presented, assuming the uncertainty in vortex shedding phenomena to be significantly more than other uncertainties, and hence, the latter is ignored. The vortex shedding is modeled as a stationary random process and is represented by a power spectral density function (PSDF). It is assumed that the vortex shedding forces are perfectly correlated and act over the top one-third height of the chimney. The PSDF of the tip displacement of the chimney is obtained by performing a frequency domain spectral analysis using a matrix approach. For this purpose, both chimney and random wind forces are discretized over a number of points along with the height of the chimney. The method of analysis duly accounts for the aero-elastic effects. The double barrier threshold crossing level, as proposed by Vanmarcke, is used for determining the probability of crossing different threshold levels of the tip displacement of the chimney. Assuming the annual distribution of the mean wind velocity to be a Gumbel type-I distribution, the fragility curve denoting the variation of the annual probability of threshold crossing against different threshold levels of the tip displacement of the chimney is determined. The reliability estimate is derived from the fragility curve. A 210m tall concrete chimney with a base diameter of 35m, top diameter as 21m, and thickness as 0.3m has been taken as an illustrative example. The terrain condition is assumed to be that corresponding to the city center. The expression for the PSDF of the vortex shedding force is taken to be used by Vickery and Basu. The results of the study show that the threshold crossing reliability of the tip displacement of the chimney is significantly influenced by the assumed structural damping and the Gumbel distribution parameters. Further, the aero-elastic effect influences the reliability estimate to a great extent for small structural damping.

Keywords: chimney, fragility curve, reliability analysis, vortex-induced vibration

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