Search results for: system uncertainty

Authors: David Gligor

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The purpose of this study was to build on Fisher's (1997) seminal article. First, it sought to determine how companies can achieve supply chain fit (i.e., match between the products' characteristics and the underlying supply chain design). Second, it attempted to develop a better understanding of how environmental conditions impact the relationship between supply chain fit and performance. The findings indicate that firm supply chain agility allows organizations to quickly adjust the structure of their supply chains and therefore, achieve supply chain fit. In addition, archival and survey data were used to explore the moderating effects of six environmental uncertainty dimensions: munificence, market dynamism, technological dynamism, technical complexity, product diversity, and geographic dispersion. All environmental variables, except technological dynamism, were found to impact the relationship between supply chain fit and firm performance.

Keywords: supply chain fit, environmental uncertainty, supply chain agility, management engineering

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Authors: Assile Abou Diab, Shadi Najjar

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Fiber-reinforcement is an effective soil improvement technique for applications involving the prevention of shallow failures on the slope face and the repair of existing slope failures. A typical application is the stabilization of cohesionless infinite slopes. The objective of this paper is to present a probabilistic, reliability-based methodology (based on Monte Carlo simulations) for the design of a practical fiber-reinforced cohesionless infinite slope, taking into consideration the impact of various sources of uncertainty. Recommendations are made regarding the required factors of safety that need to be used to achieve a given target reliability level. These factors of safety could differ from the traditional deterministic factor of safety.

Keywords: factor of safety, fiber reinforcement, infinite slope, reliability-based design, uncertainty

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Authors: Ulrike Dowie, Ralph Grothmann

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Rational planning decisions are based upon forecasts. Precise forecasting has, therefore, a central role in business. The prediction of customer demand is a prime example. This paper introduces recurrent neural networks to model customer demand and combines the forecast with uncertainty measures to derive decision support of the demand planning department. It identifies and describes the keys to the successful implementation of an AI-based solution: bringing together data with business knowledge, AI methods, and user experience, and applying agile software development practices.

Keywords: agile software development, AI project success factors, deep learning, demand forecasting, forecast uncertainty, neural networks, supply chain management

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Authors: Chhaya Gangwal, R. N. Bhaumik, Shishir Kumar

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Handling uncertainty and impreciseness of knowledge appears to be a challenging task in Information Systems. Intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) and rough set theory enhances databases by allowing it for the management of uncertainty and impreciseness. This paper presents a new efficient query optimization technique for the multi-valued or imprecise IF rough database. The usefulness of this technique was illustrated on malaria knowledge from the rural tribal communities of Tripura where most of the information is multi-valued and imprecise. Then, the querying about knowledge on malaria is executed into SQL server to make the implementation of IF rough data querying simpler.

Keywords: intuitionistic fuzzy set, rough set, relational database, IF rough relational database

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Authors: A. L. Agarwal, D. A. Mahajan

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Construction industry tumbled along with other industry/sectors during recent economic crash. Construction business could not regain thereafter and still pass through slowdown phase, resulted many real estate as well as infrastructure projects not completed on schedule and within budget. There are many theories, tools, techniques with software packages available in the market to analyze construction schedule. This study focuses on the construction project schedule and uncertainties associated with construction activities. The infrastructure construction project has been considered for the analysis of uncertainty on project activities affecting project duration and analysis is done using @RISK software. Different simulation results arising from three probability distribution functions are compiled to benefit construction project managers to plan more realistic schedule of various construction activities as well as project completion to document in the contract and avoid compensations or claims arising out of missing the planned schedule.

Keywords: construction project, distributions, project schedule, uncertainty

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Authors: Nafiseh Mollaei, Reihaneh Kardehi Moghaddam

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In case of Diabetes Mellitus the controlling of insulin is very difficult. This illness is an incurable disease affecting millions of people worldwide. Glucose is a sugar which provides energy to the cells. Insulin is a hormone which supports the absorption of glucose. Fuzzy control strategy is attractive for glucose control because it mimics the first and second phase responses that the pancreas beta cells use to control glucose. We propose two control algorithms a type-1 fuzzy controller and an interval type-2 fuzzy method for the insulin infusion. The closed loop system has been simulated for different patients with different parameters, in present of the food intake disturbance and it has been shown that the blood glucose concentrations at a normoglycemic level of 110 mg/dl in the reasonable amount of time. This paper deals with type 1 diabetes as a nonlinear model, which has been simulated in MATLAB-SIMULINK environment. The novel model, termed the Augmented Minimal Model is used in the simulations. There are some uncertainties in this model due to factors such as blood glucose, daily meals or sudden stress. In addition to eliminate the effects of uncertainty, different control methods may be utilized. In this article, fuzzy controller performance were assessed in terms of its ability to track a normoglycemic set point (110 mg/dl) in response to a [0-10] g meal disturbance. Finally, the development reported in this paper is supposed to simplify the insulin delivery, so increasing the quality of life of the patient.

Keywords: interval type-2, fuzzy controller, minimal augmented model, uncertainty

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Authors: M. J. Shofa, A. Hidayatno, O. M. Armand

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MRP as a production control system is appropriate for the deterministic environment. Unfortunately, most production systems such as customer demands are stochastic. Demand-Driven MRP (DDMRP) is a new approach for inventory control system, and it deals with demand uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to compare the MRP and DDMRP work for a long lead time and uncertain demand in terms of on-hand inventory levels. The evaluation is conducted through a discrete event simulation using purchased part data from an automotive company. The result is MRP gives 50,759 pcs / day while DDMRP gives 34,835 pcs / day (reduce 32%), it means DDMRP is more effective inventory control than MRP in terms of on-hand inventory levels.

Keywords: Demand-Driven MRP, long lead time, MRP, uncertain demand

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Authors: Badli Shah Mohd Yusoff, Khairur Rijal Jamaludin, Rozetta Dollah

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The emerging of reverse logistics and product recovery management is an important concept in reconciling economic and environmental objectives through recapturing values of the end of life product returns. End of life products contains valuable modules, parts, residues and materials that can create value if recovered efficiently. The main objective of this study is to explore and develop a model to recover as much of the economic value as reasonably possible to find the optimality of return acquisition and sorting to meet demand and maximize profits over time. In this study, the benefits that can be obtained for remanufacturer is to develop demand forecasting of used products in the future with uncertainty of returns and quality of products. Formulated based on a generic disassembly tree, the proposed model focused on three reverse logistics activity, namely refurbish, remanufacture and disposal incorporating all plausible means quality levels of the returns. While stricter sorting policy, constitute to the decrease amount of products to be refurbished or remanufactured and increases the level of discarded products. Numerical experiments carried out to investigate the characteristics and behaviour of the proposed model with mathematical programming model using Lingo 16.0 for medium-term planning of return acquisition, disassembly (refurbish or remanufacture) and disposal activities. Moreover, the model seeks an analysis a number of decisions relating to trade off management system to maximize revenue from the collection of use products reverse logistics services through refurbish and remanufacture recovery options. The results showed that full utilization in the sorting process leads the system to obtain less quantity from acquisition with minimal overall cost. Further, sensitivity analysis provides a range of possible scenarios to consider in optimizing the overall cost of refurbished and remanufactured products.

Keywords: core acquisition, end of life, reverse logistics, quality uncertainty

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Authors: Vedat Senol, Gursoy Turan, Anders Helmersson, Vortechz Andersson

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In developing a mathematical model of a real structure, the simulation results of the model may not match the real structural response. This is a general problem that arises during dynamic motion of the structure, which may be modeled by means of parameter variations in the stiffness, damping, and mass matrices. These changes in parameters need to be estimated, and the mathematical model is updated to obtain higher control performances and robustness. In this study, a linear fractional transformation (LFT) is utilized for uncertainty modeling. Further, a general approach to the design of an H∞ control of a magneto-rheological damper (MRD) for vibration reduction in a building with mass, damping, and stiffness uncertainties is presented.

Keywords: uncertainty modeling, structural control, MR Damper, H∞, robust control

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Authors: M. Hadi Bordbar, Matthew England, Alex Sen Gupta, Agus Santoso, Andrea Taschetto, Thomas Martin, Wonsun Park, Mojib Latif

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Climate models generally simulate long-term reductions in the Pacific Walker Circulation with increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. However, over two recent decades (1992-2011) there was a strong intensification of the Pacific Trade Winds that is linked with a slowdown in global surface warming. Using large ensembles of multiple climate models forced by increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and starting from different ocean and/or atmospheric initial conditions, we reveal very diverse 20-year trends in the tropical Pacific climate associated with a considerable uncertainty in the globally averaged surface air temperature (SAT) in each model ensemble. This result suggests low confidence in our ability to accurately predict SAT trends over 20-year timescale only from external forcing. We show, however, that the uncertainty can be reduced when the initial oceanic state is adequately known and well represented in the model. Our analyses suggest that internal variability in the Pacific trade winds can mask the anthropogenic signal over a 20-year time frame, and drive transitions between periods of accelerated global warming and temporary slowdown periods.

Keywords: trade winds, walker circulation, hiatus in the global surface warming, internal climate variability

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Authors: Saheed A. Gbadegeshin

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Commercialization method is a means to make inventions available at the market for final consumption. It is described as an important tool for keeping business enterprises sustainable and improving national economic growth. Thus, there are several scholarly publications on it, either presenting or testing different methods for commercialization. However, young entrepreneurs, technologists and scientists would like to know the best method to commercialize their innovations. Then, this question arises: What is the best commercialization method? To answer the question, a systematic literature review was conducted, and practitioners were interviewed. The literary results revealed that there are many methods but new methods are needed to improve commercialization especially during these times of economic crisis and political uncertainty. Similarly, the empirical results showed there are several methods, but the best method is the one that reduces costs, reduces the risks associated with uncertainty, and improves customer participation and acceptability. Therefore, it was concluded that new commercialization method is essential for today's high technologies and a method was presented.

Keywords: commercialization method, technology, knowledge, intellectual property, innovation, invention

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Authors: Xin Jie Li

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Due to population agglomeration, huge scale, and complex activities, megacities have become risk centers. To resist the risks brought by development uncertainty, the construction of resilient cities has become a common strategic choice for megacities. As a key link in promoting the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity, optimizing the layout of national land space that focuses on ecology, production, and life and improving the rationality of spatial resource allocation are conducive to fundamentally promoting the resilience construction of megacities. Therefore, based on the perspective of territorial space governance, this article explores the potential risks faced by the territorial space of megacities and proposes possible paths for the resilience construction of megacities from four aspects: promoting the construction of a resilience system throughout the entire life cycle, constructing a disaster prevention and control system with ecological resilience, creating an industrial spatial pattern with production resilience, and enhancing community resilience to anchor the front line of risk response in megacities.

Keywords: mega cities, potential risks, resilient city construction, territorial and spatial governance

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Authors: Isaac Mugume

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Since the beginning of the 21st century, climate change has been an issue due to the reported rise in global temperature and changes in the frequency as well as severity of extreme weather and climatic events. The changing climate has been attributed to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases, including environmental changes such as ecosystems and land-uses. Climatic projections have been carried out under the auspices of the intergovernmental panel on climate change where a couple of models have been run to inform us about the likelihood of future climates. Since one of the major forcings informing the changing climate is emission of greenhouse gases, different scenarios have been proposed and future climates for different periods presented. The global climate models project different areas to experience different impacts. While regional modeling is being carried out for high impact studies, bias correction is less documented. Yet, the regional climate models suffer bias which introduces uncertainty. This is addressed in this study by bias correcting the regional models. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model under different representative concentration pathways and correcting the products of these models using observed climatic data. This study notes that bias correction (e.g., the running-mean bias correction; the best easy systematic estimator method; the simple linear regression method, nearest neighborhood, weighted mean) improves the climatic projection skill and therefore reduce the uncertainty inherent in the climatic projections.

Keywords: bias correction, climatic projections, numerical models, representative concentration pathways

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Authors: Vanessa Morgado, Ricardo Bettencourt da Silva, Carla Palma

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The environmental pollution by microplastics is well recognized. Microplastics were already detected in various matrices from distinct environmental compartments worldwide, some from remote areas. Various methodologies and techniques have been used to determine microplastic in such matrices, for instance, sediment samples from the ocean bottom. In order to determine microplastics in a sediment matrix, the sample is typically sieved through a 5 mm mesh, digested to remove the organic matter, and density separated to isolate microplastics from the denser part of the sediment. The physical analysis of microplastic consists of visual analysis under a stereomicroscope to determine particle size, colour, and shape. The chemical analysis is performed by an infrared spectrometer coupled to a microscope (micro-FTIR), allowing to the identification of the chemical composition of microplastic, i.e., the type of polymer. Creating legislation and policies to control and manage (micro)plastic pollution is essential to protect the environment, namely the coastal areas. The regulation is defined from the known relevance and trends of the pollution type. This work discusses the assessment of contamination trends of a 700 km² oceanic area affected by contamination heterogeneity, sampling representativeness, and the uncertainty of the analysis of collected samples. The methodology developed consists of objectively identifying meaningful variations of microplastic contamination by the Monte Carlo simulation of all uncertainty sources. This work allowed us to unequivocally conclude that the contamination level of the studied area did not vary significantly between two consecutive years (2018 and 2019) and that PET microplastics are the major type of polymer. The comparison of contamination levels was performed for a 99% confidence level. The developed know-how is crucial for the objective and binding determination of microplastic contamination in relevant environmental compartments.

Keywords: measurement uncertainty, micro-ATR-FTIR, microplastics, ocean contamination, sampling uncertainty

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Authors: Hassan Mohammad Alkomy, Hesham Elkaranshawy, Ahmed Ibrahim Ashour, Khaled Tawfik Mohamed

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For a rigid body sliding on a rough surface, a range of uncertainty or non-uniqueness of solution could be found, which is termed: Painlevé paradox. Painlevé paradox is the reason of a wide range of bouncing motion, observed during sliding of robotic manipulators on rough surfaces. In this research work, the existence of the paradox zone during the sliding motion of a two-link (P-R) robotic manipulator with a unilateral constraint is investigated. Parametric study is performed to investigate the effect of friction, link-length ratio, total height and link-mass ratio on the paradox zone.

Keywords: dynamical system, friction, multibody system, painlevé paradox, robotic systems, sliding robots, unilateral constraint

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Authors: Bel G Raggad

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An e-Learning setting is a distributed computing environment where information resources can be connected to any public network. Public networks are very unsecure which can compromise the reliability of an e-Learning environment. This study is only concerned with the intrusion detection aspect of e-Learning security and how incident responses are planned. The literature reported great advances in intrusion detection system (ids) but neglected to study an important ids weakness: suspected events are detected but an intrusion is not determined because it is not defined in ids databases. We propose an incident response generator (DIRG) that produces incident responses when the working ids system suspects an event that does not correspond to a known intrusion. Data involved in intrusion detection when ample uncertainty is present is often not suitable to formal statistical models including Bayesian. We instead adopt Dempster and Shafer theory to process intrusion data for the unknown event. The DIRG engine transforms data into a belief structure using incident scenarios deduced by the security administrator. Belief values associated with various incident scenarios are then derived and evaluated to choose the most appropriate scenario for which an automatic incident response is generated. This article provides a numerical example demonstrating the working of the DIRG system.

Keywords: decision support system, distributed computing, e-Learning security, incident response, intrusion detection, security risk, statefull inspection

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Authors: Kai Zhang, Xi Jiang

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Effect of fuel variabilities on premixed combustion of bio-syngas mixtures is of great importance in bio-syngas utilisation. The uncertainties of concentrations of fuel constituents such as H2, CO and CH4 may lead to unpredictable combustion performances, combustion instabilities and hot spots which may deteriorate and damage the combustion hardware. Numerical modelling and simulations can assist in understanding the behaviour of bio-syngas combustion with pre-defined species concentrations, while the evaluation of variabilities of concentrations is expensive. To be more specific, questions such as ‘what is the burning velocity of bio-syngas at specific equivalence ratio?’ have been answered either experimentally or numerically, while questions such as ‘what is the likelihood of burning velocity when precise concentrations of bio-syngas compositions are unknown, but the concentration ranges are pre-described?’ have not yet been answered. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods can be used to tackle such questions and assess the effects of fuel compositions. An efficient probabilistic UQ method based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) techniques is employed in this study. The method relies on representing random variables (combustion performances) with orthogonal polynomials such as Legendre or Gaussian polynomials. The constructed PCE via Galerkin Projection provides easy access to global sensitivities such as main, joint and total Sobol indices. In this study, impacts of fuel compositions on combustion (adiabatic flame temperature and laminar flame speed) of bio-syngas fuel mixtures are presented invoking this PCE technique at several equivalence ratios. High-pressure effects on bio-syngas combustion instability are obtained using detailed chemical mechanism - the San Diego Mechanism. Guidance on reducing combustion instability from upstream biomass gasification process is provided by quantifying the significant contributions of composition variations to variance of physicochemical properties of bio-syngas combustion. It was found that flame speed is very sensitive to hydrogen variability in bio-syngas, and reducing hydrogen uncertainty from upstream biomass gasification processes can greatly reduce bio-syngas combustion instability. Variation of methane concentration, although thought to be important, has limited impacts on laminar flame instabilities especially for lean combustion. Further studies on the UQ of percentage concentration of hydrogen in bio-syngas can be conducted to guide the safer use of bio-syngas.

Keywords: bio-syngas combustion, clean energy utilisation, fuel variability, PCE, targeted uncertainty reduction, uncertainty quantification

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Authors: Mohammad Abdullah-Al-Wadud

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In the current era of automation and artificial intelligence, different systems have been increasingly keeping on depending on decision-making capabilities of machines. Such systems/applications may range from simple classifiers to sophisticated surveillance systems based on traditional sensors and related equipment which are becoming more common in the internet of things (IoT) paradigm. However, the available data for such problems are usually imprecise and incomplete, which leads to uncertainty in decisions made based on traditional probability-based classifiers. This requires a robust fusion framework to combine the available information sources with some degree of certainty. The theory of evidence can provide with such a method for combining evidence from different (may be unreliable) sources/observers. This talk will address the employment of the Dempster-Shafer Theory of evidence in some practical applications.

Keywords: decision making, dempster-shafer theory, evidence fusion, incomplete data, uncertainty

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Authors: Amin Karimi, Lele Zhang, Mark Fackrell

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Rural-to-urban population migrations are a global phenomenon, with projections indicating that by 2050, 68% of the world's population will inhabit densely populated urban centers. Concurrently, the popularity of e-commerce shopping has surged, evidenced by a 51% increase in total e-commerce sales from 2017 to 2021. Consequently, distribution and logistics systems, integral to effective supply chain management, confront escalating hurdles in efficiently delivering and distributing products within bustling urban environments. Additionally, events like environmental challenges and the COVID-19 pandemic have indicated that decision-makers are facing numerous sources of uncertainty. Therefore, to design an efficient and reliable logistics system, uncertainty must be considered. In this study, it examine fleet sizing and routing while considering uncertainty in demand rate. Fleet sizing is typically a strategic-level decision, while routing is an operational-level one. In this study, a carrier must make two types of decisions: strategic-level decisions regarding the number and types of drones to be purchased, and operational-level decisions regarding planning routes based on available fleet and realized demand. If the available fleets are insufficient to serve some customers, the carrier must outsource that delivery at a relatively high cost, calculated per order. With this hierarchy of decisions, it can model the problem using two-stage stochastic programming. The first-stage decisions involve planning the number and type of drones to be purchased, while the second-stage decisions involve planning routes. To solve this model, it employ logic-based benders decomposition, which decomposes the problem into a master problem and a set of sub-problems. The master problem becomes a mixed integer programming model to find the best fleet sizing decisions, and the sub-problems become capacitated vehicle routing problems considering battery status. Additionally, it assume a heterogeneous fleet based on load and battery capacity, and it consider that battery health deteriorates over time as it plan for multiple periods.

Keywords: drone-delivery, stochastic demand, VRP, fleet sizing

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Authors: Simon Huston, Ebraheim Lahbash, Ali Parsa

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The development of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) into a regional trade, tourism, finance and logistics hub has transformed its real estate markets. However, speculative activity and price volatility remain concerns. UAE residential market values (MV) are exposed to fluctuations in capital flows and migration which in turn are affected by geopolitical uncertainty, oil price volatility, and global investment market sentiment. Internally, a complex interplay between administrative boundaries, land tenure, building quality and evolving location characteristics fragments UAE residential property markets. In short, the UAE Residential Valuation System (UAE-RVS) confronts multiple challenges to collect, filter and analyze relevant information in complex and dynamic spatial and capital markets. A robust (RVS) can mitigate the risk of unhelpful volatility, speculative excess or investment mistakes. The research outlines the institutional, ontological, dynamic, and epistemological issues at play. We highlight the importance of system capabilities, valuation standard salience and stakeholders trust.

Keywords: valuation, property rights, information, institutions, trust, salience

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Authors: Geir Kirkebøen

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Most patients with serious diagnoses want to know their prognosis, in particular their expected survival time. As part of the informed consent process, physicians are legally obligated to communicate such information to patients. However, there is no established (evidence based) ‘best practice’ for how to do this. The two questions explored in this study are: How do physicians communicate expected survival time to patients, and how should it be done? We explored the first, descriptive question in a study with Norwegian oncologists as participants. The study had a scenario and a survey part. In the scenario part, the doctors should imagine that a patient, recently diagnosed with a serious cancer diagnosis, has asked them: ‘How long can I expect to live with such a diagnosis? I want an honest answer from you!’ The doctors should assume that the diagnosis is certain, and that from an extensive recent study they had optimal statistical knowledge, described in detail as a right-skewed survival curve, about how long such patients with this kind of diagnosis could be expected to live. The main finding was that very few of the oncologists would explain to the patient the variation in survival time as described by the survival curve. The majority would not give the patient an answer at all. Of those who gave an answer, the typical answer was that survival time varies a lot, that it is hard to say in a specific case, that we will come back to it later etc. The survey part of the study clearly indicates that the main reason why the oncologists would not deliver the mortality prognosis was discomfort with its uncertainty. The scenario part of the study confirmed this finding. The majority of the oncologists explicitly used the uncertainty, the variation in survival time, as a reason to not give the patient an answer. Many studies show that patients want realistic information about their mortality prognosis, and that they should be given hope. The question then is how to communicate the uncertainty of the prognosis in a realistic and optimistic – hopeful – way. Based on psychological research, our hypothesis is that the best way to do this is by explicitly describing the variation in survival time, the (usually) right skewed survival curve of the prognosis, and emphasize to the patient the (small) possibility of being a ‘lucky outlier’. We tested this hypothesis in two scenario studies with lay people as participants. The data clearly show that people prefer to receive expected survival time as a median value together with explicit information about the survival curve’s right skewedness (e.g., concrete examples of ‘positive outliers’), and that communicating expected survival time this way not only provides people with hope, but also gives them a more realistic understanding compared with the typical way expected survival time is communicated. Our data indicate that it is not the existence of the uncertainty regarding the mortality prognosis that is the problem for patients, but how this uncertainty is, or is not, communicated and explained.

Keywords: cancer patients, decision psychology, doctor-patient communication, mortality prognosis

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Authors: Dalvinder Kaur Mangal

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For the past decade, noise corrupted output measurements have been a fundamental research problem to be investigated. On the other hand, the estimation of the parameters for linear dynamic systems when also the input is affected by noise is recognized as more difficult problem which only recently has received increasing attention. Representations where errors or measurement noises/disturbances are present on both the inputs and outputs are usually called errors-in-variables (EIV) models. These disturbances may also have additive effects which are also considered in this paper. Parameter estimation of false EIV problem using equation error, output error and iterative prefiltering identification schemes with and without additive uncertainty, when only the output observation is corrupted by noise has been dealt in this paper. The comparative study of these three schemes has also been carried out.

Keywords: errors-in-variable (EIV), false EIV, equation error, output error, iterative prefiltering, Gaussian noise

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Authors: Amir Azaron

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In this research, a stochastic programming approach is developed for designing supply chains with uncertain parameters. Demands and selling prices of products at markets are considered as the uncertain parameters. The proposed mathematical model will be multi-period two-stage stochastic programming, which takes into account the selection of retailer sites, suppliers, production levels, inventory levels, transportation modes to be used for shipping goods, and shipping quantities among the entities of the supply chain network. The objective function is to maximize the chain’s net present value. In order to maximize the chain’s NPV, the sum of first-stage investment costs on retailers, and the expected second-stage processing, inventory-holding and transportation costs should be kept as low as possible over multiple periods. The effects of supply uncertainty where suppliers are unreliable will also be investigated on the efficiency of the supply chain.

Keywords: supply chain management, stochastic programming, multiobjective programming, inventory control

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Authors: M. G. Mattos, J. E. Pécora Jr, T. A. Briso

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Today's challenging business environment, with unpredictable demand and volatility, requires a supply chain strategy that handles uncertainty and risks in the right way. Even though inventory models have been previously explored, this paper seeks to apply these concepts on a practical situation. This study involves the inventory replenishment problem, applying techniques that are mainly based on mathematical assumptions and modeling. The primary goal is to improve the retailer’s supply chain processes taking store differences when setting the various target stock levels. Through inventory review policy, picking piece implementation and minimum exposure definition, we were able not only to promote the inventory reduction as well as improve sales results. The inventory management theory from literature review was then tested on a single case study regarding a particular department in one of the largest Latam retail chains.

Keywords: inventory, distribution, retail, risk, safety stock, sales, uncertainty

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Authors: E. Rama Devi Jothilingam

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Diabetes mellitus is now one of the most common non communicable diseases globally. India leads the world with largest number of diabetic subjects earning the title "diabetes capital of the world". In order to reduce the mortality rate, a fuzzy expert system is designed to predict the severity of cardiac and renal problems of diabetic patients using fuzzy logic. Since uncertainty is inherent in medicine, fuzzy logic is used in this research work to remove the inherent fuzziness of linguistic concepts and uncertain status in diabetes mellitus which is the prime cause for the cardiac arrest and renal failure. In this work, the controllable risk factors "blood sugar, insulin, ketones, lipids, obesity, blood pressure and protein/creatinine ratio" are considered as input parameters and the "the stages of cardiac" (SOC)" and the stages of renal" (SORD) are considered as the output parameters. The triangular membership functions are used to model the input and output parameters. The rule base is constructed for the proposed expert system based on the knowledge from the medical experts. Mamdani inference engine is used to infer the information based on the rule base to take major decision in diagnosis. Mean of maximum is used to get a non fuzzy control action that best represent possibility distribution of an inferred fuzzy control action. The proposed system also classifies the patients with high risk and low risk using fuzzy c means clustering techniques so that the patients with high risk are treated immediately. The system is validated with Matlab and is used as a tracking system with accuracy and robustness.

Keywords: Diabetes mellitus, fuzzy expert system, Mamdani, MATLAB

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Authors: Yas Barzegar, Atrin Barzegar

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Drinking water quality assessment is a major issue today; technology and practices are continuously improving; Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods prove their efficiency in this domain. The current research seeks a hierarchical fuzzy model for predicting drinking water quality in Rome (Italy). The Mamdani fuzzy inference system (FIS) is applied with different defuzzification methods. The Proposed Model includes three fuzzy intermediate models and one fuzzy final model. Each fuzzy model consists of three input parameters and 27 fuzzy rules. The model is developed for water quality assessment with a dataset considering nine parameters (Alkalinity, Hardness, pH, Ca, Mg, Fluoride, Sulphate, Nitrates, and Iron). Fuzzy-logic-based methods have been demonstrated to be appropriate to address uncertainty and subjectivity in drinking water quality assessment; it is an effective method for managing complicated, uncertain water systems and predicting drinking water quality. The FIS method can provide an effective solution to complex systems; this method can be modified easily to improve performance.

Keywords: water quality, fuzzy logic, smart cities, water attribute, fuzzy inference system, membership function

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Authors: Imane Khalil, Quinn Pratt

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In a nuclear reactor, an array of fuel rods containing stacked uranium dioxide pellets clad with zircalloy is the heat source for a thermodynamic cycle of energy conversion from heat to electricity. After fuel is used in a nuclear reactor, the assemblies are stored underwater in a spent nuclear fuel pool at the nuclear power plant while heat generation and radioactive decay rates decrease before it is placed in packages for dry storage or transportation. A computational model of a Boiling Water Reactor spent fuel assembly is modeled using FLUENT, the computational fluid dynamics package. Heat transfer simulations were performed on the two-dimensional 9x9 spent fuel assembly to predict the maximum cladding temperature for different input to the FLUENT model. Uncertainty quantification is used to predict the heat transfer and the maximum temperature profile inside the assembly.

Keywords: spent nuclear fuel, conduction, heat transfer, uncertainty quantification

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Authors: F. Felipe

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Air Defense Systems contain high-value assets that are expected to fulfill their mission for several years - in many cases, even decades - while operating in a fast-changing, technology-driven environment. Thus, it is paramount that decision-makers can assess how effective an Air Defense System is in the face of new developing threats, as well as to identify the bottlenecks that could jeopardize the security of the airspace of a country. Given the broad extent of activities and the great variety of assets necessary to achieve the strategic objectives, a systems approach was taken in order to delineate the core requirements and the physical architecture of an Air Defense System. Then, value-focused thinking helped in the definition of the measures of effectiveness. Furthermore, analytical methods were applied to create a formal structure that preliminarily assesses such measures. To validate the proposed methodology, a powerful simulation was also used to determine the measures of effectiveness, now in more complex environments that incorporate both uncertainty and multiple interactions of the entities. The results regarding the validity of this methodology suggest that the approach can support decisions aimed at enhancing the capabilities of Air Defense Systems. In conclusion, this paper sheds some light on how consolidated approaches of Systems Engineering and Operations Research can be used as valid techniques for solving problems regarding a complex and yet vital matter.

Keywords: air defense, effectiveness, system, simulation, decision-support

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Authors: Aydin M. Torkabadi, Ehsan Pourjavad

Abstract:

A decade after the introduction of Lean in Saskatchewan’s public healthcare system, its effectiveness remains a controversial subject among health researchers, workers, managers, and politicians. Therefore, developing a framework to quantitatively assess the Lean achievements is significant. This study investigates the success of initiatives across Saskatchewan health regions by recognizing the Lean healthcare criteria, measuring the success levels, comparing the regions, and identifying the areas for improvements. This study proposes an integrated intelligent computing approach by applying Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). FIS is used as an efficient approach to assess the Lean healthcare criteria, and TOPSIS is applied for ranking the values in regards to the level of leanness. Due to the innate uncertainty in decision maker judgments on criteria, principals of the fuzzy theory are applied. Finally, FIS-TOPSIS was established as an efficient technique in determining the lean merit in healthcare systems.

Keywords: lean healthcare, intelligent computing, fuzzy inference system, healthcare evaluation, technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution, multi-criteria decision making, MCDM

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

Abstract:

Intertemporal choices are choices under conditions of uncertainty in which the consequences are distributed over time. The Discounted Utility Model is the essential reference for describing the individual in the context of intertemporal choice. The model is based on the idea that the individual selects the alternative with the highest utility, which is calculated by multiplying the cardinal utility of the outcome, as if the reception were instantaneous, by the discount function that determines a decrease in the utility value according to how the actual reception of the outcome is far away from the moment the choice is made. Initially, the discount function was assumed to have an exponential trend, whose decrease over time is constant, in line with a profile of a rational investor described by classical economics. Instead, empirical evidence called for the formulation of alternative, hyperbolic models that better represented the actual actions of the investor. Attitudes that do not comply with the principles of classical rationality are termed anomalous, i.e., difficult to rationalize and describe through normative models. The development of behavioral finance, which describes investor behavior through cognitive psychology, has shown that deviations from rationality are due to the limited rationality condition of human beings. What this means is that when a choice is made in a very difficult and information-rich environment, the brain does a compromise job between the cognitive effort required and the selection of an alternative. Moreover, the evaluation and selection phase of the alternative, the collection and processing of information, are dynamics conditioned by systematic distortions of the decision-making process that are the behavioral biases involving the individual's emotional and cognitive system. In this paper we present an original decomposition of the discount function to investigate the psychological principles of hyperbolic discounting. It is possible to decompose the curve into two components: the first component is responsible for the smaller decrease in the outcome as time increases and is related to the individual's impatience; the second component relates to the change in the direction of the tangent vector to the curve and indicates how much the individual perceives the indeterminacy of the future indicating his or her aversion to uncertainty. This decomposition allows interesting conclusions to be drawn with respect to the concept of impatience and the emotional drives involved in decision-making. The contribution that neuroscience can make to decision theory and inter-temporal choice theory is vast as it would allow the description of the decision-making process as the relationship between the individual's emotional and cognitive factors. Neurofinance is a discipline that uses a multidisciplinary approach to investigate how the brain influences decision-making. Indeed, considering that the decision-making process is linked to the activity of the prefrontal cortex and amygdala, neurofinance can help determine the extent to which abnormal attitudes respect the principles of rationality.

Keywords: impatience, intertemporal choice, neurofinance, rationality, uncertainty

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