Search results for: spot price

Authors: Marjan Golmaryami, Marzieh Behzadi

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Recent developments in stock exchange highlight the need for an efficient and accurate method that helps stockholders make better decision. Since stock markets have lots of fluctuations during the time and different effective parameters, it is difficult to make good decisions. The purpose of this study is to employ artificial neural network (ANN) which can deal with time series data and nonlinear relation among variables to forecast next day stock price. Unlike other evolutionary algorithms which were utilized in stock exchange prediction, we trained our proposed neural network with metaheuristic bat algorithm, with fast and powerful convergence and applied it in stock price prediction for the first time. In order to prove the performance of the proposed method, this research selected a 7 year dataset from Parsian Bank stocks and after imposing data preprocessing, used 3 types of ANN (back propagation-ANN, particle swarm optimization-ANN and bat-ANN) to predict the closed price of stocks. Afterwards, this study engaged MATLAB to simulate 3 types of ANN, with the scoring target of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results may be adapted to other companies stocks too.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), bat algorithm, particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), stock exchange

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Authors: Christopher Reichstein, Ralf-Christian Härting, Martina Häußler

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With a continuously increasing speed of information exchange on the World Wide Web, retailers in the E-Commerce sector are faced with immense possibilities regarding different online purchase processes like dynamic price settings. By use of Dynamic Pricing, retailers are able to set short time price changes in order to optimize producer surplus. The empirical research illustrates the basics of Dynamic Pricing and identifies six influencing factors of Dynamic Pricing. The results of a structural equation modeling approach show five main drivers increasing the potential of dynamic price settings in the E-Commerce. Influencing factors are the knowledge of customers’ individual willingness to pay, rising sales, the possibility of customization, the data volume and the information about competitors’ pricing strategy.

Keywords: e-commerce, empirical research, experts, dynamic pricing (DP), influencing factors, potentials

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Authors: Samira Mohabbatdar, Abbas Ahmadi, Mohsen S. Sajadieh

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This paper deals with a two-level supply chain consisted of one manufacturer and one retailer for single-type product. The demand function of the customers depends on price. We consider an integrated production inventory system where the manufacturer processes raw materials in order to deliver finished product with imperfect quality to the retailer. Then retailer inspects the products and after that delivers perfect products to customers. The proposed model is based on the joint total profit of both the manufacturer and the retailer, and it determines the optimal ordering lot-size, number of shipment and selling price of the retailer. A numerical example is provided to analyse and illustrate the behaviour and application of the model. Finally, sensitivity analysis of the key parameters are presented to test feasibility of the model.

Keywords: supply chain, pricing policy, defective quality, joint economic lot sizing

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Zhang Pinliang, Chen Chuan, Song Guangming, Wu Qiang, Gong Zizheng, Li Ming

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The active removal of space debris and asteroid defense are important issues in human space activities. Both of them need a detumbling process, for almost all space debris and asteroid are in a rotating state, and it`s hard and dangerous to capture or remove a target with a relatively high tumbling rate. So it`s necessary to find a method to reduce the angular rate first. The laser ablation method is an efficient way to tackle this detumbling problem, for it`s a contactless technique and can work at a safe distance. In existing research, a laser rotational control strategy based on the estimation of the instantaneous angular velocity of the target has been presented. But their calculation of control torque produced by a laser, which is very important in detumbling operation, is not accurate enough, for the method they used is only suitable for the plane or regularly shaped target, and they did not consider the influence of irregular shape and the size of the spot. In this paper, based on the triangulation reconstruction of the target surface, we propose a new method to calculate the impulse of the irregularly shaped target under both the covered irradiation and spot irradiation of the laser and verify its accuracy by theoretical formula calculation and impulse measurement experiment. Then we use it to study the process of detumbling cylinder and asteroid by laser. The result shows that the new method is universally practical and has high precision; it will take more than 13.9 hours to stop the rotation of Bennu with 1E+05kJ laser pulse energy; the speed of the detumbling process depends on the distance between the spot and the centroid of the target, which can be found an optimal value in every particular case.

Keywords: detumbling, laser ablation drive, space target, space debris remove

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Authors: Parimalah Velo, Ahmad Zakaria

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Introduction: Monte Carlo simulations of preclinical imaging systems allow opportunity to enable new research that could range from designing hardware up to discovery of new imaging application. The simulation system which could accurately model an imaging modality provides a platform for imaging developments that might be inconvenient in physical experiment systems due to the expense, unnecessary radiation exposures and technological difficulties. The aim of present study is to validate the Monte Carlo simulation of thyroid phantom imaging using Geant4-GATE for Siemen’s e-cam single head gamma camera. Upon the validation of the gamma camera simulation model by comparing physical characteristic such as energy resolution, spatial resolution, sensitivity, and dead time, the GATE simulation of thyroid phantom imaging is carried out. Methods: A thyroid phantom is defined geometrically which comprises of 2 lobes with 80mm in diameter, 1 hot spot, and 3 cold spots. This geometry accurately resembling the actual dimensions of thyroid phantom. A planar image of 500k counts with 128x128 matrix size was acquired using simulation model and in actual experimental setup. Upon image acquisition, quantitative image analysis was performed by investigating the total number of counts in image, the contrast of the image, radioactivity distributions on image and the dimension of hot spot. Algorithm for each quantification is described in detail. The difference in estimated and actual values for both simulation and experimental setup is analyzed for radioactivity distribution and dimension of hot spot. Results: The results show that the difference between contrast level of simulation image and experimental image is within 2%. The difference in the total count between simulation and actual study is 0.4%. The results of activity estimation show that the relative difference between estimated and actual activity for experimental and simulation is 4.62% and 3.03% respectively. The deviation in estimated diameter of hot spot for both simulation and experimental study are similar which is 0.5 pixel. In conclusion, the comparisons show good agreement between the simulation and experimental data.

Keywords: gamma camera, Geant4 application of tomographic emission (GATE), Monte Carlo, thyroid imaging

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Authors: Sungzoon Cho, Hye Jin Lee, Sungwhan Jeon, Dongyoung Min, Sungwon Lyu

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Major public corporations worldwide use conference calls to report their quarterly earnings. These 'earnings' conference calls allow for questions from stock analysts. We investigated if it is possible to identify sentiment from the call script and use it to predict stock price movement. We analyzed call scripts from six companies, two each from Korea, China and Indonesia during six years 2011Q1 – 2017Q2. Random forest with Frequency-based sentiment scores using Loughran MacDonald Dictionary did better than control model with only financial indicators. When the stock prices went up 20 days from earnings release, our model predicted correctly 77% of time. When the model predicted 'up,' actual stock prices went up 65% of time. This preliminary result encourages us to investigate advanced sentiment scoring methodologies such as topic modeling, auto-encoder, and word2vec variants.

Keywords: earnings call script, random forest, sentiment analysis, stock price prediction

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Authors: Siphat Lim

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The result of the study revealed that the interaction between money, exchange rate, and price level was mainly derived from the policy-induced by the central bank. Furthermore, the variation of inflation was explained weakly by exchange rate and money supply. In the period of twelfth-month, the variation of inflation which caused by exchange rate and money supply were not more than 1.78 percent and 9.77 percent, respectively.

Keywords: money supply, exchange rate, price level, VAR model

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Authors: Tai-Yue Wang, Yi-Ho Chen

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In this study, we investigate a two-echelon supply chain with two suppliers and three retailers among which one retailer dominates other retailers. A price competition demand function is used to model this dominant retailer, which is leading market. The promotion strategies and negotiation schemes are integrated to form decision-making models under different scenarios. These models are then formulated into different mathematical programming models. The decision variables such as promotional costs, retailer prices, wholesale price, and order quantity are included in these models. At last, the distributions of promotion costs under different cost allocation strategies are discussed. Finally, an empirical example used to validate our models. The results from this empirical example show that the profit model will create the largest profit for the supply chain but with different profit-sharing results. At the same time, the more risk a member can take, the more profits are distributed to that member in the utility model.

Keywords: supply chain, price promotion, mathematical models, dominant retailer

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Authors: Pierluigi Gallo, Francesco Randazzo, Ignazio Gallo

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In recent years, many new and interesting models of successful online business have been developed. Many of these are based on the competition between users, such as online auctions, where the product price is not fixed and tends to rise. Other models, including group-buying, are based on cooperation between users, characterized by a dynamic price of the product that tends to go down. There is not yet a business model in which both sellers and buyers are grouped in order to negotiate on a specific product or service. The present study investigates a new extension of the group-buying model, called fair, which allows aggregation of demand and supply for price optimization, in a cooperative manner. Additionally, our system also aggregates products and destinations for shipping optimization. We introduced the following new relevant input parameters in order to implement a double-side aggregation: (a) price-quantity curves provided by the seller; (b) waiting time, that is, the longer buyers wait, the greater discount they get; (c) payment time, which determines if the buyer pays before, during or after receiving the product; (d) the distance between the place where products are available and the place of shipment, provided in advance by the buyer or dynamically suggested by the system. To analyze the proposed model we implemented a system prototype and a simulator that allows studying effects of changing some input parameters. We analyzed the dynamic price model in fairs having one single seller and a combination of selected sellers. The results are very encouraging and motivate further investigation on this topic.

Keywords: auction, aggregation, fair, group buying, social buying

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Authors: R. Hocine, A. Boudjemai, A. Amrani, K. Belkacemi

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Temperature rising is a negative factor in almost all systems. It could cause by self heating or ambient temperature. In solar photovoltaic cells this temperature rising affects on the behavior of cells. The ability of a PV module to withstand the effects of periodic hot-spot heating that occurs when cells are operated under reverse biased conditions is closely related to the properties of the cell semi-conductor material. In addition, the thermal effect also influences the estimation of the maximum power point (MPP) and electrical parameters for the PV modules, such as maximum output power, maximum conversion efficiency, internal efficiency, reliability, and lifetime. The cells junction temperature is a critical parameter that significantly affects the electrical characteristics of PV modules. For practical applications of PV modules, it is very important to accurately estimate the junction temperature of PV modules and analyze the thermal characteristics of the PV modules. Once the temperature variation is taken into account, we can then acquire a more accurate MPP for the PV modules, and the maximum utilization efficiency of the PV modules can also be further achieved. In this paper, the three-Dimensional Transmission Line Matrix (3D-TLM) method was used to map the surface temperature distribution of solar cells while in the reverse bias mode. It was observed that some cells exhibited an inhomogeneity of the surface temperature resulting in localized heating (hot-spot). This hot-spot heating causes irreversible destruction of the solar cell structure. Hot spots can have a deleterious impact on the total solar modules if individual solar cells are heated. So, the results show clearly that the solar cells are capable of self-generating considerable amounts of heat that should be dissipated very quickly to increase PV module's lifetime.

Keywords: thermal effect, conduction, heat dissipation, thermal conductivity, solar cell, PV module, nodes, 3D-TLM

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Authors: Himayatullah Khan

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This study estimates supply response function of sugarcane in Pakistan from 1980-81 to 2012-13. The study uses co-integration approach and error correction mechanism. Sugarcane production, area and price series were tested for unit root using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF). The study found that these series were stationary at their first differenced level. Using the Augmented Engle-Granger test and Cointegrating Regression Durbin-Watson (CRDW) test, the study found that “production and price” and “area and price” were co-integrated suggesting that the two sets of time series had long-run or equilibrium relationship. The results of the error correction models for the two sets of series showed that there was disequilibrium in the short run there may be disequilibrium. The Engle-Granger residual may be thought of as the equilibrium error which can be used to tie the short-run behavior of the dependent variable to its long-run value. The Granger-Causality test results showed that log of price granger caused both the long of production and log of area whereas, the log of production and log of area Granger caused each other.

Keywords: co-integration, error correction mechanism, Granger-causality, sugarcane, supply response

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Authors: Siddhi Khaire, Samarth Hawaldar, Baladitya Suri

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As efforts towards quantum communication advance, the need for single photon sources becomes imminent. Due to the extremely low energy of a single microwave photon, efforts to build single photon sources and detectors in the microwave range are relatively recent. We plan to use a Cooper Pair Box (CPB) that has a ‘sweet-spot’ where the two energy levels have minimal separation. Moreover, these qubits have fairly large anharmonicity making them close to ideal two-level systems. If the external gate voltage of these qubits is varied rapidly while passing through the sweet-spot, due to Landau-Zener effect, the qubit can be excited almost deterministically. The rapid change of the gate control voltage through the sweet spot induces a non-adiabatic population transfer from the ground to the excited state. The qubit eventually decays into the emission line emitting a single photon. The advantage of this setup is that the qubit can be excited without any coherent microwave excitation, thereby effectively increasing the usable source efficiency due to the absence of control pulse microwave photons. Since the probability of a Landau-Zener transition can be made almost close to unity by the appropriate design of parameters, this source behaves as an on-demand source of single microwave photons. The large anharmonicity of the CPB also ensures that only one excited state is involved in the transition and multiple photon output is highly improbable. Such a system has so far not been implemented and would find many applications in the areas of quantum optics, quantum computation as well as quantum communication.

Keywords: quantum computing, quantum communication, quantum optics, superconducting qubits, flux qubit, charge qubit, microwave single photon source, quantum information processing

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Authors: Mario Belseran

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The issue of climate change become world attention where one of them increase in air temperature due to greenhouse gas emissions. This climate change is caused by gases in the atmosphere, one of which is CO2. DKI Jakarta as the capital has a dense population with a variety of existing land use. Land use that is dominated by settlements resulting in fewer green space, which functions to absorb atmospheric CO2. Image interpretation SPOT-7 is used to determine the greenness level of vegetation on a green space using the vegetation index NDVI, EVI, GNDVI and OSAVI. Measuring the diameter and height of trees were also performed to obtain the value of biomass that will be used as the CO2 absorption value. The CO2 absorption value that spread in Jakarta are classified into three classes: high, medium, and low. The distribution pattern of CO2 absorption value at green space in Jakarta dominance in the medium class with the distribution pattern is located in South Jakarta, East Jakarta, North Jakarta and West Jakarta. The distribution pattern of green space in Jakarta scattered randomly and more dominate in East Jakarta and South Jakarta

Keywords: carbon dioxide, DKI Jakarta, green space, SPOT-7, vegetation index

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Authors: Vixen Joshua Tan, Siyuan He

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Scanners have been implemented within single point laser rangefinders, to determine the ranges within an environment by sweeping the laser spot across the surface of interest. The research motivation is to exploit a smaller and cheaper alternative scanning component for the emitting portion within current designs of laser rangefinders. This research implements an FPCB (Flexible Programmable Circuit Board) Electromagnetic 1-Dimensional scanning micro-mirror as a scanning component for laser rangefinding by means of triangulation. The prototype uses a laser module, micro-mirror, and receiver. The laser module is infrared (850 nm) with a power output of 4.5 mW. The receiver consists of a 50 mm convex lens and a 45mm 1-dimensional PSD (Position Sensitive Detector) placed at the focal length of the lens at 50 mm. The scanning component is an elliptical Micro-Mirror attached onto an FPCB Structure. The FPCB structure has two miniature magnets placed symmetrically underneath it on either side, which are then electromagnetically actuated by small solenoids, causing the FPCB to mechanically rotate about its torsion beams. The laser module projects a laser spot onto the micro-mirror surface, hence producing a scanning motion of the laser spot during the rotational actuation of the FPCB. The receiver is placed at a fixed distance from the micro-mirror scanner and is oriented to capture the scanning motion of the laser spot during operation. The elliptical aperture dimensions of the micro-mirror are 8mm by 5.5 mm. The micro-mirror is supported by an FPCB with two torsion beams with dimensions of 4mm by 0.5mm. The overall length of the FPCB is 23 mm. The voltage supplied to the solenoids is sinusoidal with an amplitude of 3.5 volts and 4.5 volts to achieve optical scanning angles of +/- 10 and +/- 17 degrees respectively. The operating scanning frequency during experiments was 5 Hz. For an optical angle of +/- 10 degrees, the prototype is capable of detecting objects within the ranges from 0.3-1.2 meters with an error of less than 15%. As for an optical angle of +/- 17 degrees the measuring range was from 0.3-0.7 meters with an error of 16% or less. Discrepancy between the experimental and actual data is possibly caused by misalignment of the components during experiments. Furthermore, the power of the laser spot collected by the receiver gradually decreased as the object was placed further from the sensor. A higher powered laser will be tested to potentially measure further distances more accurately. Moreover, a wide-angled lens will be used in future experiments when higher scanning angles are used. Modulation within the current and future higher powered lasers will be implemented to enable the operation of the laser rangefinder prototype without the use of safety goggles.

Keywords: FPCB electromagnetic 1-D scanning micro-mirror, laser rangefinder, position sensitive detector, PSD, triangulation

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Authors: Cristian Pauna

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Trading the financial markets is a widespread activity today. A large number of investors, companies, public of private funds are buying and selling every day in order to make profit. Algorithmic trading is the prevalent method to make the trade decisions after the electronic trading release. The orders are sent almost instantly by computers using mathematical models. This paper will present a price prediction methodology based on a multi-dimensional neural network. Using the Fisher transform, the neural network will be instructed for a low-latency auto-adaptive process in order to predict the price evolution for the next period of time. The model is designed especially for algorithmic trading and uses the real-time price series. It was found that the characteristics of the Fisher function applied at the nodes scale level can generate reliable trading signals using the neural network methodology. After real time tests it was found that this method can be applied in any timeframe to trade the financial markets. The paper will also include the steps to implement the presented methodology into an automated trading system. Real trading results will be displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the model. As conclusion, the compared results will reveal that the neural network methodology applied together with the Fisher transform at the nodes level can generate a good price prediction and can build reliable trading signals for algorithmic trading.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, neural network

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Authors: Edson Vengesai

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Derivative products have become essential instruments in portfolio diversification, price discovery, and, most importantly, risk hedging. Derivatives are complex instruments; their valuation, volatility implications, and real impact on the underlying assets' behaviour are not well understood. Little is documented empirically, with conflicting conclusions on how these instruments affect firm risk exposures. Given the growing interest in using derivatives in risk management and portfolio engineering, this study examines the practical impact of derivative usage on the underlying stock price exposure and systematic risk. The paper uses data from South African listed firms. The study employs GARCH models to understand the effect of derivative uses on conditional stock volatility. The GMM models are used to estimate the effect of derivatives use on stocks' systematic risk as measured by Beta and on the total risk of stocks as measured by the standard deviation of returns. The results provide evidence on whether derivatives use is instrumental in reducing stock returns' systematic and total risk. The results are subjected to numerous controls for robustness, including financial leverage, firm size, growth opportunities, and macroeconomic effects.

Keywords: derivatives use, hedging, volatility, stock price exposure

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Authors: Zhaojun Wang, Zongdi Sun, Yongjie Chen, Manman Chen, Linghui Wang

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This paper uses the analytic hierarchy process to study the execution effect of the minimum purchase price of grain in different regions and various grain crops. Firstly, for different regions, five indicators including grain yield, grain sown area, gross agricultural production, grain consumption price index, and disposable income of rural residents were selected to construct an evaluation index system. We collect data of six provinces including Hebei Province, Heilongjiang Province and Shandong Province from 2006 to 2017. Then, the judgment matrix is constructed, and the hierarchical single ordering and consistency test are carried out to determine the scoring standard for the minimum purchase price of grain. The ranking of the execution effect from high to low is: Heilongjiang Province, Shandong Province, Hebei Province, Guizhou Province, Shaanxi Province, and Guangdong Province. Secondly, taking Shandong Province as an example, we collect the relevant data of sown area and yield of cereals, beans, potatoes and other crops from 2006 to 2017. The weight of area and yield index is determined by expert scoring method. And the average sown area and yield of cereals, beans and potatoes in 2006-2017 were calculated, respectively. On this basis, according to the sum of products of weights and mean values, the execution effects of different grain crops are determined. It turns out that among the cereals, the minimum purchase price had the best execution effect on paddy, followed by wheat and finally maize. Moreover, among major categories of crops, cereals perform best, followed by beans and finally potatoes. Lastly, countermeasures are proposed for different regions, various categories of crops, and different crops of the same category.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, grain yield, grain sown area, minimum grain purchase price

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Authors: Hassan Adedoyin Rasaq

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The marketing efforts of the present day business is not just geared towards meeting the consumer’s needs at a price, but ensuring good customer satisfaction, and strategizing on how to retain such customers. Customer satisfaction and retention is achievable through the co-ordination of the marketing mixes; Product, Price, Promotion and Place; Relationship Marketing; After-Sales Service; Rebates/Discounts/Price reduction policy and Total Quality Management (TQM). A first-hand customer, If well satisfied, will become a company’s repeat customer, proceeds to become a client and goes further to become an advocate of the company by applauding the company’s products/services and encouraging others to buy from it. It is the objective of this paper, therefore, to guide business organizations on how to enhance customer satisfaction, and retain existing customers as a means of long-term survival in marketing. The responses of 72 randomly selected Marketing personnel spread across three (3) food and beverage companies in Nigeria were analyzed. One hypothesis was tested using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) statistical tool, and it was discovered that Relationship marketing contributed to organizational profitability and growth.

Keywords: customer satisfaction, retention strategies, marketing, marketing mixes

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Authors: Janne Engblom, Elias Oikarinen

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The understanding of housing price dynamics is of importance to a great number of agents: to portfolio investors, banks, real estate brokers and construction companies as well as to policy makers and households. A panel dataset is one that follows a given sample of individuals over time, and thus provides multiple observations on each individual in the sample. Panel data models include a variety of fixed and random effects models which form a wide range of linear models. A special case of panel data models is dynamic in nature. A complication regarding a dynamic panel data model that includes the lagged dependent variable is endogeneity bias of estimates. Several approaches have been developed to account for this problem. In this paper, the panel models were estimated using the Common Correlated Effects estimator (CCE) of dynamic panel data which also accounts for cross-sectional dependence which is caused by common structures of the economy. In presence of cross-sectional dependence standard OLS gives biased estimates. In this study, U.S housing price dynamics were examined empirically using the dynamic CCE estimator with first-difference of housing price as the dependent and first-differences of per capita income, interest rate, housing stock and lagged price together with deviation of housing prices from their long-run equilibrium level as independents. These deviations were also estimated from the data. The aim of the analysis was to provide estimates with comparisons of estimates between 1980-1999 and 2000-2012. Based on data of 50 U.S cities over 1980-2012 differences of short-run housing price dynamics estimates were mostly significant when two time periods were compared. Significance tests of differences were provided by the model containing interaction terms of independents and time dummy variable. Residual analysis showed very low cross-sectional correlation of the model residuals compared with the standard OLS approach. This means a good fit of CCE estimator model. Estimates of the dynamic panel data model were in line with the theory of housing price dynamics. Results also suggest that dynamics of a housing market is evolving over time.

Keywords: dynamic model, panel data, cross-sectional dependence, interaction model

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Authors: Montserrat Guillen, Stephania Mosquera-Lopez, Jorge Uribe

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An empirical study of market risk transmission between electricity prices in the Nord Pool interconnected market is done. Crucially, it is differentiated between risk propagation in the two tails of the price variation distribution. Thus, the downside risk from upside risk spillovers is distinguished. The results found document an asymmetric nature of risk and risk propagation in the two tails of the electricity price log variations. Risk spillovers following price increments in the market are transmitted to a larger extent than those after price reductions. Also, asymmetries related to both, the size of the transaction area and related to whether a given area behaves as a net-exporter or net-importer of electricity, are documented. For instance, on the one hand, the bigger the area of the transaction, the smaller the size of the volatility shocks that it receives. On the other hand, exporters of electricity, alongside countries with a significant dependence on renewable sources, tend to be net-transmitters of volatility to the rest of the system. Additionally, insights on the predictive power of positive and negative semivariances for future market volatility are provided. It is shown that depending on the forecasting horizon, downside and upside shocks to the market are featured by a distinctive persistence, and that upside volatility impacts more on net-importers of electricity, while the opposite holds for net-exporters.

Keywords: electricity prices, realized volatility, semivariances, volatility spillovers

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Authors: Kavyadevi N., Kaviya G., Gowsalya P., Janani M., Mohanraj S.

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Hevea brasiliensis, also known as the rubber tree, is one of the foremost assets of crops in the world. One of the most significant advantages of the Rubber Plant in terms of air oxygenation is its capacity to reduce the likelihood of an individual developing respiratory allergies like asthma. To construct such a system that can properly identify crop diseases and pests and then create a database of insecticides for each pest and disease, we must first give treatment for the illness that has been detected. We shall primarily examine three major leaf diseases since they are economically deficient in this article, which is Bird's eye spot, algal spot and powdery mildew. And the recommended work focuses on disease identification on rubber tree leaves. It will be accomplished by employing one of the superior algorithms. Input, Preprocessing, Image Segmentation, Extraction Feature, and Classification will be followed by the processing technique. We will use time-consuming procedures that they use to detect the sickness. As a consequence, the main ailments, underlying causes, and signs and symptoms of diseases that harm the rubber tree are covered in this study.

Keywords: image processing, python, convolution neural network (CNN), machine learning

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Authors: Melek Akay

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Turkey's agricultural commodity prices are prone to fluctuation but have gradually over time. A considerable amount of literature examines the changes in these prices by dealing with other commodities such as energy. Links between agricultural and energy markets have therefore been extensively investigated. Since red meat prices are becoming increasingly volatile in Turkey, this paper analyses the price volatility of veal, lamb and the relationship between red meat and crude oil, exchange rates by applying the generalize all period unconstraint volatility model, which generalises the GARCH (p, q) model for analysing weekly data covering a period of May 2006 to February 2017. Empirical results show that veal and lamb prices present volatility during the last decade, but particularly between 2009 and 2012. Moreover, oil prices have a significant effect on veal and lamb prices as well as their previous periods. Consequently, our research can lead policy makers to evaluate policy implementation in the appropriate way and reduce the impacts of oil prices by supporting producers.

Keywords: red meat price, volatility, crude oil, exchange rates, GARCH models, Turkey

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Authors: Lubna Naz, Munir Ahmad, G. M. Arif

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This study analyzes static and dynamic welfare impacts of food price changes for various landholding groups in Pakistan. The study uses three classifications of land ownership, landless, small landowners and large landowners, for analysis. The study uses Panel Survey, Pakistan Rural Household Survey (PRHS) of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad, of rural households from two largest provinces (Sindh and Punjab) of Pakistan. The study uses all three waves (2001, 2004 and 2010) of PRHS. This research work makes three important contributions in literature. First, this study uses Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) to estimate demand functions for eight food groups-cereals, meat, milk and milk products, vegetables, cooking oil, pulses and other food. The study estimates food demand functions with Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated (NLSUR), and employs Lagrange Multiplier and test on the coefficient of squared expenditure term to determine inclusion of squared expenditure term. Test results support the inclusion of squared expenditure term in the food demand model for each of landholding groups (landless, small landowners and large landowners). This study tests for endogeneity and uses control function for its correction. The problem of observed zero expenditure is dealt with a two-step procedure. Second, it creates low price and high price periods, based on literature review. It uses elasticity coefficients from QUAIDS to analyze static and dynamic welfare effects (first and second order Tylor approximation of expenditure function is used) of food price changes across periods. The study estimates compensation variation (CV), money metric loss from food price changes, for landless, small and large landowners. Third, this study compares the findings on welfare implications of food price changes based on QUAIDS with the earlier research in Pakistan, which used other specification of the demand system. The findings indicate that dynamic welfare impacts of food price changes are lower as compared to static welfare impacts for all landholding groups. The static and dynamic welfare impacts of food price changes are highest for landless. The study suggests that government should extend social security nets to landless poor and categorically to vulnerable landless (without livestock) to redress the short-term impact of food price increase. In addition, the government should stabilize food prices and particularly cereal prices in the long- run.

Keywords: QUAIDS, Lagrange multiplier, NLSUR, and Tylor approximation

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Authors: H. Mayton, X. Yan, A. G. Taylor

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Infested tomato seeds were used to investigate the influence of Xanthomonas euvesicatoria on germination and seed to seedling transmission in a controlled environment and greenhouse assays in an effort to develop effective seed treatments and characterize seed borne transmission of bacterial leaf spot of tomato. Bacterial leaf spot of tomato, caused by four distinct Xanthomonas species, X. euvesicatoria, X. gardneri, X. perforans, and X. vesicatoria, is a serious disease worldwide. In the United States, disease prevention is expensive for commercial growers in warm, humid regions of the country, and crop losses can be devastating. In this study, four different infested tomato seed lots were extracted from tomato fruits infected with bacterial leaf spot from a field in New York State in 2017 that had been inoculated with X. euvesicatoria. In addition, vacuum infiltration at 61 kilopascals for 1, 5, 10, and 15 minutes and seed soaking for 5, 10, 15, and 30 minutes with different bacterial concentrations were used to artificially infest seed in the laboratory. For controlled environment assays, infested tomato seeds from the field and laboratory were placed othe n moistened blue blotter in square plastic boxes (10 cm x 10 cm) and incubated at 20/30 ˚C with an 8/16 hour light cycle, respectively. Infested tomato seeds from the field and laboratory were also planted in small plastic trays in soil (peat-lite medium) and placed in the greenhouse with 24/18 ˚C day and night temperatures, respectively, with a 14-hour photoperiod. Seed germination was assessed after eight days in the laboratory and 14 days in the greenhouse. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using the hrpB7 primers (RST65 [5’- GTCGTCGTTACGGCAAGGTGGTG-3’] and RST69 [5’-TCGCCCAGCGTCATCAGGCCATC-3’]) was performed to confirm presence or absence of the bacterial pathogen in seed lots collected from the field and in germinating seedlings in all experiments. For infested seed lots from the field, germination was lowest (84%) in the seed lot with the highest level of bacterial infestation (55%) and ranged from 84-98%. No adverse effect on germination was observed from artificially infested seeds for any bacterial concentration and method of infiltration when compared to a non-infested control. Germination in laboratory assays for artificially infested seeds ranged from 82-100%. In controlled environment assays, 2.5 % were PCR positive for the pathogen, and in the greenhouse assays, no infected seedlings were detected. From these experiments, X. euvesicatoria does not appear to adversely influence germination. The lowest rate of germination from field collected seed may be due to contamination with multiple pathogens and saprophytic organisms as no effect of artificial bacterial seed infestation in the laboratory on germination was observed. No evidence of systemic movement from seed to seedling was observed in the greenhouse assays; however, in the controlled environment assays, some seedlings were PCR positive. Additional experiments are underway with green fluorescent protein-expressing isolates to further characterize seed to seedling transmission of the bacterial leaf spot pathogen in tomato.

Keywords: bacterial leaf spot, seed germination, tomato, Xanthomonas euvesicatoria

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Si Chen, Le Zhang, Xian He

Abstract:

The research explored the influences of public open space system on housing price through hedonic models, in order to support better open space plans and economic policies. We have three initial hypotheses: 1) public open space system has an overall positive influence on surrounding housing prices. 2) Different public open space types have different levels of influence on motivating surrounding housing prices. 3) Walking and driving accessibilities from property to public open spaces have different statistical relation with housing prices. Cook County, Illinois, was chosen to be a study area since data availability, sufficient open space types, and long-term open space preservation strategies. We considered the housing attributes, driving and walking accessibility scores from houses to nearby public open spaces, and driving accessibility scores to hospitals as influential features and used real housing sales price in 2010 as a dependent variable in the built hedonic model. Through ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis, General Moran’s I analysis and geographically weighted regression analysis, we observed the statistical relations between public open spaces and housing sale prices in the three built hedonic models and confirmed all three hypotheses.

Keywords: hedonic model, public open space, housing sale price, regression analysis, accessibility score

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Ali Hojati Najafabadi, Mohamad Hosein Rahmati, Seyed Ali Madanizadeh

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Governments execute energy subsidy reforms by either increasing energy prices or reducing energy price dispersion. These policies make less use of energy per plant (intensive margin), vary the total number of firms (extensive margin), promote technological progress (technology channel), and make additional resources to redistribute (resource channel). We estimate a structural dynamic firm model with endogenous technology adaptation using data from the manufacturing firms in Iran and a country ranked the second-largest energy subsidy plan by the IMF. The findings show significant dynamics and distributional effects due to an energy reform plan. The price elasticity of energy consumption in the industrial sector is about -2.34, while it is -3.98 for large firms. The dispersion elasticity, defined as the amounts of changes in energy consumption by a one-percent reduction in the standard error of energy price distribution, is about 1.43, suggesting significant room for a distributional policy. We show that the intensive margin is the main driver of energy price elasticity, whereas the other channels mostly offset it. In contrast, the labor response is mainly through the extensive margin. Total factor productivity slightly improves in light of the reduction in energy consumption if, at the same time, the redistribution policy boosts the aggregate demands.

Keywords: energy reform, firm dynamics, structural estimation, subsidy policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Sylwia Frydrych, Jörg Prokop, Michał Buszko

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This study investigates the complex relationship between corporate ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) performance and stock price risk within the European market context. By analyzing a dataset of 435 companies across 19 European countries, the research assesses the impact of both combined ESG performance and its individual components on various risk measures, including volatility, idiosyncratic risk, systematic risk, and downside risk. The findings reveal that while overall ESG scores do not significantly influence stock price risk, disaggregating the ESG components uncovers significant relationships. Governance practices are shown to consistently reduce market risk, positioning them as critical in risk management. However, environmental engagement tends to increase risk, particularly in times of regulatory shifts like those introduced in the EU post-2018. This research provides valuable insights for investors and corporate managers on the nuanced roles of ESG factors in financial risk, emphasizing the need for careful consideration of each ESG pillar in decision-making processes.

Keywords: ESG performance, ESG factors, ESG pillars, ESG scores

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Authors: Ziad. Sh. Al Sarraf

Abstract:

Ultrasonic metal welding has been the subject of ongoing research and development, most recently concentrating on metal joining in miniature devices, for example to allow solder-free wire bonding. As well as at the small scale, there are also opportunities to research the joining of thicker sheet metals and to widen the range of similar and dissimilar materials that can be successfully joined using this technology. This study presents the design, characterisation and test of a lateral-drive ultrasonic metal spot welding device. The ultrasonic metal spot welding horn is modelled using finite element analysis (FEA) and its vibration behaviour is characterised experimentally to ensure ultrasonic energy is delivered effectively to the weld coupon. The welding stack and fixtures are then designed and mounted on a test machine to allow a series of experiments to be conducted for various welding and ultrasonic parameters. Weld strength is subsequently analysed using tensile-shear tests. The results show how the weld strength is particularly sensitive to the combination of clamping force and ultrasonic vibration amplitude of the welding tip, but there are optimal combinations of these and also limits that must be clearly identified.

Keywords: ultrasonic welding, vibration amplitude, welding force, weld strength

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Authors: Malihe Moeinin, Robert Hill, Ferranti Wong

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Background: A white spot lesion (WSL) is defined as subsurface enamel porosity from carious demineralisation on the smooth surfaces of the tooth. It appears as a milky white opacity. Lesions shown an apparently intact surface layer, followed underneath by the more porous lesion body. The small pores within the body of the lesion act as diffusion pathway for both acids and minerals, so allowing the demineralisation of enamel to occur at the advancing front of the lesion. Objectives: The objective is to mapthe porosity and its size on WSL with Focused Ion Bean- Scanning Electron Microscopy (FIB-SEM) Method: The basic method used for FIB-SEM consisted of depositing a one micron thick layer of platinum over 25μmx 25μm of the interest region of enamel. Then, making a rough cut (25μmx 5μmx 20μm) with 3nA current and 30Kv was applied with the help of drift suppression (DS), using a standard “cross-sectional” cutting pattern, which ended at the front of the deposited platinum layer. Two adjacent areas (25μmx 5μmx 20μm) on the both sides of the platinum layer were milled under the same conditions. Subsequent, cleaning cross-sections were applied to polish the sub-surface edge of interest running perpendicular to the surface. The "slice and view" was carried out overnight for milling almost 700 slices with 2Kv and 4nA and taking backscattered (BS) images. Then, images were imported into imageJ and analysed. Results: The prism structure is clearly apparent on FIB-SEM slices of WSL with the dissolution of prism boundaries as well as internal porosity within the prism itself. Porosity scales roughly 100-400nm, which is comparable to the light wavelength (500nm). Conclusion: FIB-SEM is useful to characterize the porosity of WSL and it clearly shows the difference between WSL and normal enamel.

Keywords: white spot lesion, FIB-SEM, enamel porosity, porosity

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Tijjani Bashir Musa

Abstract:

The recent global crisis which suddenly results to Nigerian stock market crash revealed some peculiarities of Nigerian firms. Some firms in Nigeria are performing but their stock prices are not increasing while some firms are at the brink of collapse but their stock prices are increasing. Thus, this study examines the relationship between firm performance and stock price in Nigeria. The study covered the period of 2005 to 2009. This period is the period of stock boom and also marked the period of stock market crash as a result of global financial meltdown. The study is a panel study. A total of 140 firms were sampled from 216 firms listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). Data were collected from secondary source. These data were divided into four strata comprising the most performing stock, the least performing stock, most performing firms and the least performing firms. Each stratum contains 35 firms with characteristic of most performing stock, most performing firms, least performing stock and least performing firms. Multiple linear regression models were used to analyse the data while statistical/econometrics package of Stata 11.0 version was used to run the data. The study found that, relationship exists between selected firm performance parameters (operating efficiency, firm profit, earning per share and working capital) and stock price. As such firm performance gave sufficient information or has predictive power on stock prices movements in Nigeria for all the years under study.. The study recommends among others that Managers of firms in Nigeria should formulate policies and exert effort geared towards improving firm performance that will enhance stock prices movements.

Keywords: firm, Nigeria, performance, stock price

Procedia PDF Downloads 473