Search results for: real estate prediction

Authors: Suriya

Abstract:

Rapid socio-economic development and urbanization have led to an increasingly serious air pollution problem in Ulaanbaatar (UB), the capital of Mongolia. PM₂.₅ pollution has become the most pressing aspect of UB air pollution. Therefore, monitoring and predicting PM₂.₅ concentration in UB is of great significance for the health of the local people and environmental management. As of yet, very few studies have used models to predict PM₂.₅ concentrations in UB. Using data from 0:00 on June 1, 2018, to 23:00 on April 30, 2020, we proposed two deep learning models based on Bayesian-optimized LSTM (Bayes-LSTM) and CNN-LSTM. We utilized hourly observed data, including Himawari8 (H8) aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorology, and PM₂.₅ concentration, as input for the prediction of PM₂.₅ concentrations. The correlation strengths between meteorology, AOD, and PM₂.₅ were analyzed using the gray correlation analysis method; the comparison of the performance improvement of the model by using the AOD input value was tested, and the performance of these models was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The prediction accuracies of Bayes-LSTM and CNN-LSTM deep learning models were both improved when AOD was included as an input parameter. Improvement of the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model was particularly enhanced in the non-heating season; in the heating season, the prediction accuracy of the Bayes-LSTM model slightly improved, while the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model slightly decreased. We propose two novel deep learning models for PM₂.₅ concentration prediction in UB, Bayes-LSTM, and CNN-LSTM deep learning models. Pioneering the use of AOD data from H8 and demonstrating the inclusion of AOD input data improves the performance of our two proposed deep learning models.

Keywords: deep learning, AOD, PM2.5, prediction, Ulaanbaatar

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Authors: A. Majidian

Abstract:

The life prediction of thermal power plant components is necessary to prevent the unexpected outages, optimize maintenance tasks in periodic overhauls and plan inspection tasks with their schedules. One of the main critical components in a power plant is condenser because its failure can affect many other components which are positioned in downstream of condenser. This paper deals with factors affecting life of condenser. Failure rates dependency vs. these factors has been investigated using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and fuzzy logic algorithms. These algorithms have shown their capabilities as dynamic tools to evaluate life prediction of power plant equipments.

Keywords: life prediction, condenser tube, neural network, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Mojtaba Hakimi-Moghaddam

Abstract:

Positive realness as the most important property of driving point impedance of passive electrical networks appears in the control systems stability theory in 1960’s. There are three important subsets of positive real (PR) systems are introduced by researchers, that is, loos-less positive real (LLPR) systems, weakly strictly positive real (WSPR) systems and strictly positive real (SPR) systems. In this paper, definitions, properties, lemmas, and theorems related to family of positive real systems are summarized. Properties in both frequency domain and state space representation of system are explained. Also, several illustrative examples are presented.

Keywords: real rational matrix transfer functions, positive realness property, strictly positive realness property, Hermitian form asymptotic property, pole-zero properties

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Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab, Amin Mohamed Nassar

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Wind energy is a fluctuating energy source unlike conventional power plants, thus, it is necessary to accurately predict short term wind speed to integrate wind energy in the electricity supply structure. To do so, we present a hybrid artificial intelligence model of short term wind speed prediction based on passive aggregation of the particle swarm optimization and neural networks. As a result, improvement of the prediction accuracy is obviously obtained compared to the standard artificial intelligence method.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, neural networks, particle swarm optimization, passive aggregation, wind speed prediction

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Authors: Thinh Ngo, Paul Rad, Brian Kelley

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Noise estimation is essential in today wireless systems for power control, adaptive modulation, interference suppression and quality of service. Deep learning (DL) has already been applied in the physical layer for modulation and signal classifications. Unacceptably low accuracy of less than 50% is found to undermine traditional application of DL classification for SNR prediction. In this paper, we use divide-and-conquer algorithm and classifier fusion method to simplify SNR classification and therefore enhances DL learning and prediction. Specifically, multiple CNNs are used for classification rather than a single CNN. Each CNN performs a binary classification of a single SNR with two labels: less than, greater than or equal. Together, multiple CNNs are combined to effectively classify over a range of SNR values from −20 ≤ SNR ≤ 32 dB.We use pre-trained CNNs to predict SNR over a wide range of joint channel parameters including multiple Doppler shifts (0, 60, 120 Hz), power-delay profiles, and signal-modulation types (QPSK,16QAM,64-QAM). The approach achieves individual SNR prediction accuracy of 92%, composite accuracy of 70% and prediction convergence one order of magnitude faster than that of traditional estimation.

Keywords: classification, CNN, deep learning, prediction, SNR

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Authors: Pengwei Qiao, Sucai Yang, Wenxia Wei

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Soil pollution has become an important issue in China. Accurate spatial distribution prediction of pollutants with interpolation methods is the basis for soil remediation in the site. However, a relatively strong variability of pollutants would decrease the prediction accuracy. Theoretically, partition interpolation can result in accurate prediction results. In order to verify the applicability of partition interpolation for a site, benzo (b) fluoranthene (BbF) in four soil layers was adopted as the research object in this paper. IDW (inverse distance weighting)-, RBF (radial basis function)-and OK (ordinary kriging)-based partition interpolation accuracies were evaluated, and their influential factors were analyzed; then, the uncertainty and applicability of partition interpolation were determined. Three conclusions were drawn. (1) The prediction error of partitioned interpolation decreased by 70% compared to unpartitioned interpolation. (2) Partition interpolation reduced the impact of high CV (coefficient of variation) and high concentration value on the prediction accuracy. (3) The prediction accuracy of IDW-based partition interpolation was higher than that of RBF- and OK-based partition interpolation, and it was suitable for the identification of highly polluted areas at a contaminated site. These results provide a useful method to obtain relatively accurate spatial distribution information of pollutants and to identify highly polluted areas, which is important for soil pollution remediation in the site.

Keywords: accuracy, applicability, partition interpolation, site, soil pollution, uncertainty

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Authors: Engin Eyceyurt, Josko Zec

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The current and future cellular mobile communication networks generate enormous amounts of data. Networks have become extremely complex with extensive space of parameters, features and counters. These networks are unmanageable with legacy methods and an enhanced design and optimization approach is necessary that is increasingly reliant on machine learning. This paper proposes that machine learning as a viable approach for uplink throughput prediction. LTE radio metric, such as Reference Signal Received Power (RSRP), Reference Signal Received Quality (RSRQ), and Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) are used to train models to estimate expected uplink throughput. The prediction accuracy with high determination coefficient of 91.2% is obtained from measurements collected with a simple smartphone application.

Keywords: drive test, LTE, machine learning, uplink throughput prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Nurul Mazni Abdullah, Saw Kian Cheah, Raha Abdul Rahman, Qurratu 'Aini Musthafa

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Purpose: Candidemia was associated with high mortality in the critically ill patients. Early candidemia prediction is imperative for preemptive antifungal treatment. This study aimed to externally validate the candidemia risk prediction scores by Jameran et al. (2021) by identifying risk factors of acute kidney injury, renal replacement therapy, parenteral nutrition, and multifocal candida colonization. Methods: This single-center, retrospective observational study included all critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) in a tertiary referral center from January 2018 to December 2023. The study evaluated the candidemia risk prediction score performance by analysing the occurrence of candidemia within the study period. Patients’ demographic characteristics, comorbidities, SOFA scores, and ICU outcomes were analyzed. Patients who were diagnosed with candidemia prior to ICU admission were excluded. Results: A total of 500 patients were analyzed with 2 dropouts due to incomplete data. Validation analysis showed that the candidemia risk prediction score has a sensitivity of 75.00% (95% CI: 59.66-86.81), specificity of 65.35% (95% CI: 60.78-69.72), positive predictive value of 17.28, and negative predictive value of 96.44. The incidence of candidemia was 8.86%, with no significant differences in demographics or comorbidities except for higher SOFA scoring in the candidemia group. The candidemia group showed significantly longer ICU, hospital LOS, and higher ICU in-hospital mortality. Conclusion: This study concluded the candidemia risk prediction score by Jameran et al. (2021) had good sensitivity and a high negative prediction value. Thus, the risk prediction score was validated for candidemia prediction in critically ill patients.

Keywords: Candidemia, intensive care, acute kidney injury, clinical prediction rule, incidence

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Authors: Pingshan Chen, Zhiliang Dong

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In order to estimate the post-construction settlement more objectively, the power-polynomial model is proposed, which can reflect the trend of settlement development based on the observed settlement data. It was demonstrated by an actual case history of an embankment, and during the prediction. Compared with the other three prediction models, the power-polynomial model can estimate the post-construction settlement more accurately with more simple calculation.

Keywords: prediction, model, post-construction settlement, soft ground

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Authors: Yang Zhang, Jian He

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Heart disease is one of the leading causes of death in the world, and coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the major heart diseases. Electrocardiogram (ECG) is widely used in the detection of heart diseases, but the traditional manual method for CHD prediction by analyzing ECG requires lots of professional knowledge for doctors. This paper introduces sliding window and continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to transform ECG signals into images, and then ResNet and Bi-LSTM are introduced to build the ECG feature extraction network (namely ECGNet). At last, an auxiliary system for coronary heart disease prediction was developed based on modified ResNet18 and Bi-LSTM, and the public ECG dataset of CHD from MIMIC-3 was used to train and test the system. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the method is 83%, and the F1-score is 83%. Compared with the available methods for CHD prediction based on ECG, such as kNN, decision tree, VGGNet, etc., this method not only improves the prediction accuracy but also could avoid the degradation phenomenon of the deep learning network.

Keywords: Bi-LSTM, CHD, ECG, ResNet, sliding window

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Authors: Christian Neunzig, Simon Fahle, Jürgen Schulz, Matthias Möller, Bernd Kuhlenkötter

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Digitalisation in production technology is a driver for the application of machine learning methods. Through the application of predictive quality, the great potential for saving necessary quality control can be exploited through the data-based prediction of product quality and states. However, the serial use of machine learning applications is often prevented by various problems. Fluctuations occur in real production data sets, which are reflected in trends and systematic shifts over time. To counteract these problems, data preprocessing includes rule-based data cleaning, the application of dimensionality reduction techniques, and the identification of comparable data subsets to extract stable features. Successful process control of the target variables aims to centre the measured values around a mean and minimise variance. Competitive leaders claim to have mastered their processes. As a result, much of the real data has a relatively low variance. For the training of prediction models, the highest possible generalisability is required, which is at least made more difficult by this data availability. The implementation of a machine learning application can be interpreted as a production process. The CRoss Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) is a process model with six phases that describes the life cycle of data science. As in any process, the costs to eliminate errors increase significantly with each advancing process phase. For the quality prediction of hydraulic test steps of directional control valves, the question arises in the initial phase whether a regression or a classification is more suitable. In the context of this work, the initial phase of the CRISP-DM, the business understanding, is critically compared for the use case at Bosch Rexroth with regard to regression and classification. The use of cross-process production data along the value chain of hydraulic valves is a promising approach to predict the quality characteristics of workpieces. Suitable methods for leakage volume flow regression and classification for inspection decision are applied. Impressively, classification is clearly superior to regression and achieves promising accuracies.

Keywords: classification, CRISP-DM, machine learning, predictive quality, regression

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Authors: Shashwat Gangwal

Abstract:

This paper analyses the effect of adding Bitcoin, to the portfolio (stocks, bonds, Baltic index, MXEF, gold, real estate and crude oil) of an international investor by using daily data available from 2^nd of July, 2010 to 2^{nd of} August, 2016. We conclude that adding Bitcoin to portfolio, over the course of the considered period, always yielded a higher Sharpe ratio. This means that Bitcoin’s returns offset its high volatility. This paper, recognizing the fact that Bitcoin is a relatively new asset class, gives the readers a basic idea about the working of the virtual currency, the increasing number developments in the financial industry revolving around it, its unique features and the detailed look into its continuously growing acceptance across different fronts (Banks, Merchants and Countries) globally. We also construct optimal portfolios to reflect the highly lucrative and largely unexplored opportunities associated with investment in Bitcoin.

Keywords: bitcoin, financial instruments, portfolio management, risk adjusted return

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Authors: Malo Pocheau-Lesteven, Olivier Le Maître

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Engineering and optimisation of complex systems is often achieved through multi-disciplinary analysis of the system, where each subsystem is modeled and interacts with other subsystems to model the complete system. The coherence of the output of the different sub-systems is achieved through the use of compatibility constraints, which enforce the coupling between the different subsystems. Due to the complexity of some sub-systems and the computational cost of evaluating their respective models, it is often necessary to build surrogate models of these subsystems to allow repeated evaluation these subsystems at a relatively low computational cost. In this paper, gaussian processes are used, as their probabilistic nature is leveraged to evaluate the likelihood of satisfying the compatibility constraints. This paper presents infilling strategies to build accurate surrogate models of the subsystems in areas where they are likely to meet the compatibility constraint. It is shown that these infilling strategies can reduce the computational cost of building surrogate models for a given level of accuracy. An application of these methods to velocity prediction programs used in offshore racing naval architecture further demonstrates these method's applicability in a real engineering context. Also, some examples of the application of uncertainty quantification to field of naval architecture are presented.

Keywords: infilling strategy, gaussian process, multi disciplinary analysis, velocity prediction program

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Authors: Aragorn Joaquin Pineda Dela Cruz

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Road traffic congestion is continually deteriorating in Hong Kong. The largest contributing factor is the increase in vehicle fleet size, resulting in higher competition over the utilisation of road space. This study proposes a project that can process closed-circuit television images and videos to provide real-time traffic detection and prediction capabilities. Specifically, a deep-learning model involving computer vision techniques for video and image-based vehicle counting, then a separate model to detect and predict traffic congestion levels based on said data. State-of-the-art object detection models such as You Only Look Once and Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Networks are tested and compared on closed-circuit television data from various major roads in Hong Kong. It is then used for training in long short-term memory networks to be able to predict traffic conditions in the near future, in an effort to provide more precise and quicker overviews of current and future traffic conditions relative to current solutions such as navigation apps.

Keywords: intelligent transportation system, vehicle detection, traffic analysis, deep learning, machine learning, computer vision, traffic prediction

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Authors: A. L. Agarwal, D. A. Mahajan

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Construction industry tumbled along with other industry/sectors during recent economic crash. Construction business could not regain thereafter and still pass through slowdown phase, resulted many real estate as well as infrastructure projects not completed on schedule and within budget. There are many theories, tools, techniques with software packages available in the market to analyze construction schedule. This study focuses on the construction project schedule and uncertainties associated with construction activities. The infrastructure construction project has been considered for the analysis of uncertainty on project activities affecting project duration and analysis is done using @RISK software. Different simulation results arising from three probability distribution functions are compiled to benefit construction project managers to plan more realistic schedule of various construction activities as well as project completion to document in the contract and avoid compensations or claims arising out of missing the planned schedule.

Keywords: construction project, distributions, project schedule, uncertainty

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Authors: Sophie N. Selby-Pham, Yudie Wang, Louise Bennett

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Consumption of grapes promotes health and reduces the risk of chronic diseases due to the action of grape phytochemicals in regulation of Oxidative Stress and Inflammation (OSI). The bioefficacy of phytochemicals depends on their absorption in the human body. The time required for phytochemicals to achieve maximal plasma concentration (Tₘₐₓ) after oral intake reflects the time window of maximal bioefficacy of phytochemicals, with Tₘₐₓ dependent on physicochemical properties of phytochemicals. This research collated physicochemical properties of grape phytochemicals from white and red grapes to predict their Tₘₐₓ using pharmacokinetic modelling. The predicted values of Tₘₐₓ were then compared to the measured Tₘₐₓ collected from clinical studies to determine the accuracy of prediction. In both liquid and solid intake forms, white grapes exhibit a shorter Tₘₐₓ range (0.5-2.5 h) versus red grapes (1.5-5h). The prediction accuracy of Tₘₐₓ for grape phytochemicals was 33.3% total error of prediction compared to the mean, indicating high prediction accuracy. Pharmacokinetic modelling allows prediction of Tₘₐₓ without costly clinical trials, informing dosing frequency for sustained presence of phytochemicals in the body to optimize the health benefits of phytochemicals.

Keywords: absorption kinetics, phytochemical, phytochemical absorption prediction model, Vitis vinifera

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Authors: Cedric Leong, Parth Desai, Parth Patel

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The purpose of this project was to develop a neural network based on qualitative team data to predict alliance scores to determine winners of matches in the FIRST Robotics Competition (FRC). The game for the competition changes every year with different objectives and game objects, however the idea was to create a prediction system which can be reused year by year using some of the statistics that are constant through different games, making our system adaptable to future games as well. Aerial Assist is the FRC game for 2014, and is played in alliances of 3 teams going against one another, namely the Red and Blue alliances. This application takes any 6 teams paired into 2 alliances of 3 teams and generates the prediction for the final score between them.

Keywords: artifical neural network, prediction system, qualitative team data, FIRST Robotics Competition (FRC)

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Authors: Amir Hossein Hejazi, Nima Amjady

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In recent years, due to environmental issues traditional energy sources had been replaced by renewable ones. Wind energy as the fastest growing renewable energy shares a considerable percent of energy in power electricity markets. With this fast growth of wind energy worldwide, owners and operators of wind farms, transmission system operators, and energy traders need reliable and secure forecasts of wind energy production. In this paper, a new forecasting strategy is proposed for short-term wind power prediction based on Echo State Networks (ESN). The forecast engine utilizes state-of-the-art training process including dynamical reservoir with high capability to learn complex dynamics of wind power or wind vector signals. The study becomes more interesting by incorporating prediction of wind direction into forecast strategy. The Big Bang-Big Crunch (BB-BC) evolutionary optimization algorithm is adopted for adjusting free parameters of ESN-based forecaster. The proposed method is tested by real-world hourly data to show the efficiency of the forecasting engine for prediction of both wind vector and wind power output of aggregated wind power production.

Keywords: wind power forecasting, echo state network, big bang-big crunch, evolutionary optimization algorithm

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Authors: Ajayi Olusola Olajide, Alonge Olaide Moses

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Predicting the outcome of soccer matches poses an interesting challenge for which it is realistically impossible to successfully do so for every match. Despite this, there are lots of resources that are being expended on the correct prediction of soccer matches weekly, and all over the world. Soccer Match Result Prediction System Model (SMRPSM) is a system that is proposed whereby the results of matches between two soccer teams are auto-generated, with the added excitement of giving users a chance to test their predictive abilities. Soccer teams from different league football are loaded by the application, with each team’s corresponding manager and other information like team location, team logo and nickname. The user is also allowed to interact with the system by selecting the match to be predicted and viewing of the results of completed matches after registering/logging in.

Keywords: predicting, soccer match, outcome, soccer, matches, result prediction, system, model

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Authors: Shital Suresh Borse, Vijayalaxmi Kadroli

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E-commerce industries nowadays implement the latest AI, ML Techniques to improve their own performance and prediction accuracy. This helps to gain a huge profit from the online market. Ant Colony Optimization, Genetic algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, Neural Network & GWO help many e-commerce industries for up-gradation of their predictive performance. These algorithms are providing optimum results in various applications, such as stock price prediction, prediction of drug-target interaction & user ratings of similar products in e-commerce sites, etc. In this study, customer reviews will play an important role in prediction analysis. People showing much interest in buying a lot of services& products suggested by other customers. This ultimately increases net profit. In this work, a convolution neural network (CNN) is proposed which further is useful to optimize the prediction accuracy of an e-commerce website. This method shows that CNN is used to optimize hyperparameters of GWO algorithm using an appropriate coding scheme. Accurate model results are verified by comparing them to PSO results whose hyperparameters have been optimized by CNN in Amazon's customer review dataset. Here, experimental outcome proves that this proposed system using the GWO algorithm achieves superior execution in terms of accuracy, precision, recovery, etc. in prediction analysis compared to the existing systems.

Keywords: prediction analysis, e-commerce, machine learning, grey wolf optimization, particle swarm optimization, CNN

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Authors: Pedro Paulo Galindo Francisco, Eli Dhadad Junior

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This study addresses the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle by introducing the latest machine learning techniques as alternatives for predicting the exchange rates. Using RMSE as a comparison metric, Meese and Rogoff discovered that economic models are unable to outperform the random walk model as short-term exchange rate predictors. Decades after this study, no statistical prediction technique has proven effective in overcoming this obstacle; although there were positive results, they did not apply to all currencies and defined periods. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence technologies have paved the way for a new approach to exchange rate prediction. Leveraging this technology, we applied five machine learning techniques to attempt to overcome the Meese-Rogoff puzzle. We considered daily data for the real, yen, British pound, euro, and Chinese yuan against the US dollar over a time horizon from 2010 to 2023. Our results showed that none of the presented techniques were able to produce an RMSE lower than the Random Walk model. However, the performance of some models, particularly LSTM and N-BEATS were able to outperform the ARIMA model. The results also suggest that machine learning models have untapped potential and could represent an effective long-term possibility for overcoming the Meese-Rogoff puzzle.

Keywords: exchage rate, prediction, machine learning, deep learning

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Authors: C. Manjula, Lilly Florence

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Software technology is developing rapidly which leads to the growth of various industries. Now-a-days, software-based applications have been adopted widely for business purposes. For any software industry, development of reliable software is becoming a challenging task because a faulty software module may be harmful for the growth of industry and business. Hence there is a need to develop techniques which can be used for early prediction of software defects. Due to complexities in manual prediction, automated software defect prediction techniques have been introduced. These techniques are based on the pattern learning from the previous software versions and finding the defects in the current version. These techniques have attracted researchers due to their significant impact on industrial growth by identifying the bugs in software. Based on this, several researches have been carried out but achieving desirable defect prediction performance is still a challenging task. To address this issue, here we present a machine learning based hybrid technique for software defect prediction. First of all, Genetic Algorithm (GA) is presented where an improved fitness function is used for better optimization of features in data sets. Later, these features are processed through Decision Tree (DT) classification model. Finally, an experimental study is presented where results from the proposed GA-DT based hybrid approach is compared with those from the DT classification technique. The results show that the proposed hybrid approach achieves better classification accuracy.

Keywords: decision tree, genetic algorithm, machine learning, software defect prediction

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Authors: Rodrigo Aguiar, Adelino Ferreira

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Road traffic accidents are the leading cause of unnatural death and injuries worldwide, representing a significant problem of road safety. In this context, the use of artificial intelligence with advanced machine learning techniques has gained prominence as a promising approach to predict traffic accidents. This article investigates the application of machine learning algorithms to develop traffic accident frequency prediction models. Models are evaluated based on performance metrics, making it possible to do a comparative analysis with traditional prediction approaches. The results suggest that machine learning can provide a powerful tool for accident prediction, which will contribute to making more informed decisions regarding road safety.

Keywords: machine learning, artificial intelligence, frequency of accidents, road safety

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Authors: Kaoutar Abbahaddou, Mohammed Salah Chiadmi

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The need to find a relevant way to predict the next-day price of a stock index is a real concern for many financial stakeholders and researchers. We have known across years the proliferation of several methods. Nevertheless, among all these methods, the most controversial one is a machine learning algorithm that claims to be reliable, namely neural networks. Thus, the purpose of this article is to study the prediction power of neural networks in the particular case of Islamic finance as it is an under-looked area. In this article, we will first briefly present a review of the literature regarding neural networks and Islamic finance. Next, we present the architecture and principles of artificial neural networks most commonly used in finance. Then, we will show its empirical application on two Islamic stock indexes. The accuracy rate would be used to measure the performance of the algorithm in predicting the right price the next day. As a result, we can conclude that artificial neural networks are a reliable method to predict the next-day price for Islamic indices as it is claimed for conventional ones.

Keywords: Islamic finance, stock price prediction, artificial neural networks, machine learning

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Authors: Siti Aiysyah Tumin

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This paper looks at the nature of structural changes—the transition of employment from agriculture, to manufacturing, then to different types of services—in different states in Malaysia and links it to income outcomes for households and workers. Specifically, this paper investigates the conditional association between the concentration of different economic activities and income outcomes (household incomes and employee wages) in almost four decades. Using publicly available state-level employment and income data, we found that significant wage premium was associated with “modern” services (finance, real estate, professional, information and communication), which are urban-based services sectors that employ a larger proportion of skilled and educated workers. However, employment in manufacturing and other services subsectors was significantly associated with a lower income dispersion and inequality, alluding to their importance in welfare improvements.

Keywords: employment, labor market, structural change, wage

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Authors: A. Yakub AbdurRaheem

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Urban violence in the form of ethnic and religious conflicts have been on the increase in many African cities in the recent years of which most of them are the result of intense and bitter competition for political power, the control of limited economic, social and environmental resources. In Nigeria, the emergence of the Boko Haram insurgency in most parts of the northeastern parts have ignited violence, bloodshed, refugee exodus and internal migration. Not only do the persistent attacks of the sect create widespread insecurity and fear, but it has also stifled normal processes of trade and investments most especially real property investment which is acclaimed to accelerate the economic cycle, thus the need to evolve strategies for an improved property market in such areas. This paper, therefore, examines the impact of this social crisis on effective and efficient utilization of real properties as a resource towards the development of the economy, using a descriptive analysis approach where particular emphasis was based on trends in residential housing values; volume of estimated property transactions and real estate investment decisions by affected individuals. Findings indicate that social crisis in the affected areas have been a clog on the wheels of property development and investment as properties worth hundreds of millions have been destroyed thereby having great impact on property values. Based on these findings, recommendations were made to include the need to strategically continue investing in property during such times, the need for Nigerian government to establish an active conflict monitoring and management unit for the prompt response, encourage community and neighborhood policing to ameliorate security challenges in Nigeria.

Keywords: social crisis, economy, resources, property market

Procedia PDF Downloads 237

Authors: Piotr A. Kowalski, Kasper Sapala, Wiktor Warchalowski

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PM10 is a suspended dust that primarily has a negative effect on the respiratory system. PM10 is responsible for attacks of coughing and wheezing, asthma or acute, violent bronchitis. Indirectly, PM10 also negatively affects the rest of the body, including increasing the risk of heart attack and stroke. Unfortunately, Poland is a country that cannot boast of good air quality, in particular, due to large PM concentration levels. Therefore, based on the dense network of Airly sensors, it was decided to deal with the problem of prediction of suspended particulate matter concentration. Due to the very complicated nature of this issue, the Machine Learning approach was used. For this purpose, Convolution Neural Network (CNN) neural networks have been adopted, these currently being the leading information processing methods in the field of computational intelligence. The aim of this research is to show the influence of particular CNN network parameters on the quality of the obtained forecast. The forecast itself is made on the basis of parameters measured by Airly sensors and is carried out for the subsequent day, hour after hour. The evaluation of learning process for the investigated models was mostly based upon the mean square error criterion; however, during the model validation, a number of other methods of quantitative evaluation were taken into account. The presented model of pollution prediction has been verified by way of real weather and air pollution data taken from the Airly sensor network. The dense and distributed network of Airly measurement devices enables access to current and archival data on air pollution, temperature, suspended particulate matter PM1.0, PM2.5, and PM10, CAQI levels, as well as atmospheric pressure and air humidity. In this investigation, PM2.5, and PM10, temperature and wind information, as well as external forecasts of temperature and wind for next 24h served as inputted data. Due to the specificity of the CNN type network, this data is transformed into tensors and then processed. This network consists of an input layer, an output layer, and many hidden layers. In the hidden layers, convolutional and pooling operations are performed. The output of this system is a vector containing 24 elements that contain prediction of PM10 concentration for the upcoming 24 hour period. Over 1000 models based on CNN methodology were tested during the study. During the research, several were selected out that give the best results, and then a comparison was made with the other models based on linear regression. The numerical tests carried out fully confirmed the positive properties of the presented method. These were carried out using real ‘big’ data. Models based on the CNN technique allow prediction of PM10 dust concentration with a much smaller mean square error than currently used methods based on linear regression. What's more, the use of neural networks increased Pearson's correlation coefficient (R²) by about 5 percent compared to the linear model. During the simulation, the R² coefficient was 0.92, 0.76, 0.75, 0.73, and 0.73 for 1st, 6th, 12th, 18th, and 24th hour of prediction respectively.

Keywords: air pollution prediction (forecasting), machine learning, regression task, convolution neural networks

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Authors: Timothy Onyenobi

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Accidental fires and its dynamic as it relates to building compartmentation and the impact of the compartment morphology, is still an on-going area of study; especially with the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling methods. With better knowledge on this subject come better solution recommendations by fire engineers. Interviews were carried out for this study where it was identified that the response perspectives to accidental fire were different with the fire engineer providing qualitative data which is based on “what is expected in real fires” and the fire fighters provided information on “what actually obtains in real fires”. This further led to a study and analysis of two real and comprehensively instrumented fire experiments: the Open Plan Office Project by National Institute of Standard and Technology (NIST) USA (to study time to flashover) and the TF2000 project by the Building Research Establishment (BRE) UK (to test for conformity with Building Regulation requirements). The findings from the analysis of the experiments revealed the relative yet critical weakness of fire prediction using a CFD model (usually used by fire engineers) as well as explained the differences in response perspectives of the fire engineers and firefighters from the interview analysis.

Keywords: CFD, compartment fire, experiment, fire fighters, fire engineers

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Authors: Marimuthu Gurusamy

Abstract:

In vibration analysis (with accelerometers) of rotating machines with rolling element bearing, the customers are interested to know the failure of the machine well in advance to plan the spare inventory and maintenance. But in real world most of the machines fails before the prediction of vibration analyst or Expert analysis software. Presently the prediction of failure is based on ISO 10816 vibration limits only. But this is not enough to monitor the failure of machines well in advance. Because more than 50% of the machines will fail even the vibration readings are within acceptable zone as per ISO 10816.Hence it requires further detail analysis and different techniques to predict the failure well in advance. In vibration Analysis, the velocity spectrum is used to analyse the root cause of the mechanical problems like unbalance, misalignment and looseness etc. The envelope spectrum are used to analyse the bearing frequency components, hence the failure in inner race, outer race and rolling elements are identified. But so far there is no correlation made between these two concepts. The author used both velocity spectrum and Envelope spectrum to analyse the machine behaviour and bearing condition to correlated the changes in dynamic load (by unbalance, misalignment and looseness etc.) and effect of impact on the bearing. Hence we could able to predict the expected life of the machine and bearings in the rotating equipment (with rolling element bearings). Also we used process parameters like temperature, flow and pressure to correlate with flow induced vibration and load variations, when abnormal vibration occurs due to changes in process parameters. Hence by correlation of velocity spectrum, envelope spectrum and process data with 20 years of experience in vibration analysis, the author could able to predict the rotating Equipment and its component’s deterioration and expected duration for maintenance.

Keywords: vibration analysis, velocity spectrum, envelope spectrum, prediction of deterioration

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Authors: Juliane Spaak

Abstract:

A life-cycle assessment was performed, looking at seven retrofit projects in New Zealand using LCAQuickV3.5. The study found that retrofits save up to 80% of embodied carbon emissions for the structural elements compared to a new building. In other words, it is only a 20% carbon investment to transform and extend a building’s life. In addition, the systems were evaluated by looking at environmental impacts over the design life of these buildings and resilience using FEMA P58 and PACT software. With the increasing interest in Zero Carbon targets, significant changes in the building and construction sector are required. Emissions for buildings arise from both embodied carbon and operations. Based on the significant advancements in building energy technology, the focus is moving more toward embodied carbon, a large portion of which is associated with the structure. Since older buildings make up most of the real estate stock of our cities around the world, their reuse through structural retrofit and wider refurbishment plays an important role in extending the life of a building’s embodied carbon. New Zealand’s building owners and engineers have learned a lot about seismic issues following a decade of significant earthquakes. Recent earthquakes have brought to light the necessity to move away from constructing code-minimum structures that are designed for life safety but are frequently ‘disposable’ after a moderate earthquake event, especially in relation to a structure’s ability to minimize damage. This means weaker buildings sit as ‘carbon liabilities’, with considerably more carbon likely to be expended remediating damage after a shake. Renovating and retrofitting older assets plays a big part in reducing the carbon profile of the buildings sector, as breathing new life into a building’s structure is vastly more sustainable than the highest quality ‘green’ new builds, which are inherently more carbon-intensive. The demolition of viable older buildings (often including heritage buildings) is increasingly at odds with society’s desire for a lower carbon economy. Bringing seismic resilience and carbon best practice together in decision-making can open the door to commercially attractive outcomes, with retrofits that include structural and sustainability upgrades transforming the asset’s revenue generation. Across the global real estate market, tenants are increasingly demanding the buildings they occupy be resilient and aligned with their own climate targets. The relationship between seismic performance and ‘sustainable design’ has yet to fully mature, yet in a wider context is of profound consequence. A whole-of-life carbon perspective on a building means designing for the likely natural hazards within the asset’s expected lifespan, be that earthquake, storms, damage, bushfires, fires, and so on, ¬with financial mitigation (e.g., insurance) part, but not all, of the picture.

Keywords: retrofit, sustainability, earthquake, reuse, carbon, resilient

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