Search results for: deterministic queue analysis

Authors: Fahad Suleiman

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Queuing, in medical system is the process of moving patients in a specific sequence to a specific service according to the patients’ nature of illness. The term scheduling stands for the process of computing a schedule. This may be done by a queuing based scheduler. This paper focuses on the medical consultancy system, the different queuing algorithms that are used in healthcare system to serve the patients, and the average waiting time. The aim of this paper is to build automatic queuing system for organizing the medical queuing system that can analyses the queue status and take decision which patient to serve. The new queuing architecture model can switch between different scheduling algorithms according to the testing results and the factor of the average waiting time. The main innovation of this work concerns the modeling of the average waiting time is taken into processing, in addition with the process of switching to the scheduling algorithm that gives the best average waiting time.

Keywords: queuing systems, queuing system models, scheduling algorithms, patients

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Authors: A. Mohammadi, M. Moghimi, S. Mohammadi

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Engineers need computational methods which could provide solutions less sensitive to the environmental effects, so the techniques should be used which take the uncertainty to account to control and minimize the risk associated with design and operation. In order to consider uncertainty in engineering problem, the optimization problem should be solved for a suitable range of the each uncertain input variable instead of just one estimated point. Using deterministic optimization problem, a large computational burden is required to consider every possible and probable combination of uncertain input variables. Several methods have been reported in the literature to deal with problems under uncertainty. In this paper, different methods presented and analyzed.

Keywords: uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulated, stochastic programming, scenario method

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Authors: Rachid Ziteuni, Selt Omar

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In this paper, we propose a new polynomial metaheuristic elaboration (tabu search) for solving scheduling problems. This method allows us to solve the scheduling problem of n tasks on m identical parallel machines with unavailability periods. This problem is NP-complete in the strong sens and finding an optimal solution appears unlikely. Note that all data in this problem are integer and deterministic. The performance criterion to optimize in this problem which we denote Pm/N-c/summs of (wjCj) is the weighted sum of the end dates of tasks.

Keywords: scheduling, parallel identical machines, unavailability periods, metaheuristic, tabu search

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Authors: A. Nicknam, N. Eftekhari, A. Mazarei, M. Ganjvar

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This article presents an alternative collapse capacity intensity measure in the three elements form which is influenced by the spectral ordinates at periods longer than that of the first mode period at near and far source sites. A parameter, denoted by β, is defined by which the spectral ordinate effects, up to the effective period (2T_1), on the intensity measure are taken into account. The methodology permits to meet the hazard-levelled target extreme event in the probabilistic and deterministic forms. A MATLAB code is developed involving OpenSees to calculate the collapse capacities of the 8 archetype RC structures having 2 to 20 stories for regression process. The incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method is used to calculate the structure’s collapse values accounting for the element stiffness and strength deterioration. The general near field set presented by FEMA is used in a series of performing nonlinear analyses. 8 linear relationships are developed for the 8structutres leading to the correlation coefficient up to 0.93. A collapse capacity near field prediction equation is developed taking into account the results of regression processes obtained from the 8 structures. The proposed prediction equation is validated against a set of actual near field records leading to a good agreement. Implementation of the proposed equation to the four archetype RC structures demonstrated different collapse capacities at near field site compared to those of FEMA. The reasons of differences are believed to be due to accounting for the spectral shape effects.

Keywords: collapse capacity, fragility analysis, spectral shape effects, IDA method

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Authors: Juan C. Sanchez, Jose L. Endrino, Alejandro Toro, Hugo A. Estupinan, Glenn Leighton

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For years, the reduction of friction and wear has been a matter of interest in the engineering field. Several solutions have been proposed to address this issue, including the use of lubricants and coatings to reduce the frictional forces and to increase the surface wear resistance. Alternatively, texturing processes have been used in a wide variety of materials, in many cases inspired in natural surfaces. Nature has shown how species adapt to the environment and the engineers try to understand natural surfaces for particular applications by analyzing outstanding species such as gecko for high adhesion, lotus leaves for hydrophobicity, sharks for reduced flow resistance and snakes for optimized frictional response. Texturized surfaces have shown a superior performance in terms of the frictional response in many situations, and the control of its behavior greatly depends on the manufacturing process. The focus of this work is to evaluate the tribological behavior of AISI 52100 steel samples texturized by Photochemical Machining (PCM). The surface texture was inspired by several features of the snakeskin such as aspect ratio of fibrils and mean fibril spacing. Two coatings were applied on the texturized surface, namely Diamond-like Carbon (DLC) and Molybdenum Disulphide (MoS₂), and their tribological behavior after pin-on-disk tests were compared with that of the non-texturized and uncovered surfaces. The samples were characterised through Stereoscopic Microscope (SM), Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM), Optical Microscope (OM), Profilometer, Raman Spectrometer (RS) and X-Ray Diffractometer (XRD). The Coefficient of Friction (COF) measured in pin-on-disk tests showed correlations with the sliding direction (relative to the texture features) and the aspect ratio of the texture features. Regarding the coated surfaces, the DLC and MoS₂ coating had a good performance in terms of wear rate and coefficient of friction compared with the uncoated and non-texturized surfaces. On the other hand, for the uncoated surfaces, the texture showed an influence in the tribological performance with respect to the non-texturized surface.

Keywords: coating, coefficient of friction, deterministic surface, photochemical machining

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Authors: Dinmukhamed T., Vassiliy S.

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This article suggests the idea of fitting clothes and accessories based on augmented reality. A logical data model has been developed, taking into account the decision-making module (colors, style, type, material, popularity, etc.) based on personal data (age, gender, weight, height, leg size, hoist length, geolocation, photogrammetry, number of purchases of certain types of clothing, etc.) and statistical data of the purchase history (number of items, price, size, color, style, etc.). Also, in order to provide information to the user, it is planned to develop an augmented reality system using a QR code. This system of selection and fitting of clothing and accessories based on augmented reality will be used in stores to reduce the time for the buyer to make a decision on the choice of clothes.

Keywords: augmented reality, online store, decision-making module, like QR code, clothing store, queue

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Authors: Omar Alzeley, Sergey Utev

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Minimizing a constrained multivariate function is the fundamental of Machine learning, and these algorithms are at the core of data mining and data visualization techniques. The decision function that maps input points to output points is based on the result of optimization. This optimization is the central of learning theory. One approach to complex systems where the dynamics of the system is inferred by a statistical analysis of the fluctuations in time of some associated observable is time series analysis. The purpose of this paper is a mathematical transition from the autoregressive model of classical time series to the matrix formalization of quantum theory. Firstly, we have proposed a quantum time series model (QTS). Although Hamiltonian technique becomes an established tool to detect a deterministic chaos, other approaches emerge. The quantum probabilistic technique is used to motivate the construction of our QTS model. The QTS model resembles the quantum dynamic model which was applied to financial data. Secondly, various statistical methods, including machine learning algorithms such as the Kalman filter algorithm, are applied to estimate and analyses the unknown parameters of the model. Finally, simulation techniques such as Markov chain Monte Carlo have been used to support our investigations. The proposed model has been examined by using real and simulated data. We establish the relation between quantum statistical machine and quantum time series via random matrix theory. It is interesting to note that the primary focus of the application of QTS in the field of quantum chaos was to find a model that explain chaotic behaviour. Maybe this model will reveal another insight into quantum chaos.

Keywords: machine learning, simulation techniques, quantum probability, tensor product, time series

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Authors: Kiran Nair, Jincy George, Suhaib Anagreh

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Artificial intelligence (AI) in a marketing context is a form of a deterministic tool designed to optimize and enhance marketing tasks, research tools, and techniques. It is on the verge of transforming marketing roles and revolutionize the entire industry. This paper aims to explore the current dissemination of the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in the marketing mix, reviewing the scope and application of AI in various aspects of sales and distribution management. The paper also aims at identifying the areas of the strong impact of AI in factors of sales and distribution management such as distribution channel, purchase automation, customer service, merchandising automation, and shopping experiences. This is a qualitative research paper that aims to examine the impact of AI on sales and distribution management of 30 multinational brands in six different industries, namely: airline; automobile; banking and insurance; education; information technology; retail and telecom. Primary data is collected by means of interviews and questionnaires from a sample of 100 marketing managers that have been selected using convenient sampling method. The data is then analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis. The study reveals that AI applications are extensively used in sales and distribution management, with a strong impact on various factors such as identifying new distribution channels, automation in merchandising, customer service, and purchase automation as well as sales processes. International brands have already integrated AI extensively in their day-to-day operations for better efficiency and improved market share while others are investing heavily in new AI applications for gaining competitive advantage.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, sales and distribution, marketing mix, distribution channel, customer service

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Authors: M. H. Fazel Zarandi, N. Moshahedi

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The hub location problem appears in a variety of applications such as medical centers, firefighting facilities, cargo delivery systems and telecommunication network design. The location of service centers has a strong influence on the congestion at each of them, and, consequently, on the quality of service. This paper presents a fuzzy maximal hub covering location problem (FMCHLP) in which travel costs between any pair of nodes is considered as a fuzzy variable. In order to consider the quality of service, we model each hub as a queue. Arrival rate follows Poisson distribution and service rate follows Erlang distribution. In this paper, at first, a nonlinear mathematical programming model is presented. Then, we convert it to the linear one. We solved the linear model using GAMS software up to 25 nodes and for large sizes due to the complexity of hub covering location problems, and simulated annealing algorithm is developed to solve and test the model. Also, we used possibilistic c-means clustering method in order to find an initial solution.

Keywords: fuzzy modeling, location, possibilistic clustering, queuing

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Authors: Muleya Nqobile, Winston Garira

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We presented a compartmental deterministic multi-scale model which encompass internal plant defensive mechanism and pathogen interaction, then we consider nesting the model into the epidemiological model. The objective was to improve our understanding of the transmission dynamics of within host and between host of Guignardia citricapa Kiely. The inflow of infected class was scaled down to individual level while the outflow was scaled up to average population level. Conceptual model and mathematical model were constructed to display a theoretical framework which can be used for predicting or identify disease pattern.

Keywords: epidemiological model, mathematical modelling, multi-scale modelling, immunological model

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Authors: Arnab Mondal, Sanjeev Kumar Sharma, Ranjit Kumar Upadhyay

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We study the spatiotemporal dynamics of a neuronal cable. The processes of one- dimensional (1D) and 2D diffusion are considered for a single variable, which is the membrane voltage, i.e., membrane voltage diffusively interacts for spatiotemporal pattern formalism. The recovery and other variables interact through the membrane voltage. A 3D Leech-Heart (LH) model is introduced to investigate the nonlinear responses of an excitable neuronal cable. The deterministic LH model shows different types of firing properties. We explore the parameter space of the uncoupled LH model and based on the bifurcation diagram, considering v_k2_ashift as a bifurcation parameter, we analyze the 1D diffusion dynamics in three regimes: bursting, regular spiking, and a quiescent state. Depending on parameters, it is shown that the diffusive system may generate regular and irregular bursting or spiking behavior. Further, it is explored a 2D diffusion acting on the membrane voltage, where different types of patterns can be observed. The results show that the LH neurons with different firing characteristics depending on the control parameters participate in a collective behavior of an information processing system that depends on the overall network.

Keywords: bifurcation, pattern formation, spatio-temporal dynamics, stability analysis

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Authors: Hecson Christian, Joel Macwan

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Landfill site selection in an urban area is a critical issue in the planning process. With the growth of the urbanization, it has a mammoth impact on the economy, ecology, and environmental health of the region. Outsized amount of wastes are produced and the problem gets soared every day. Hence, selection of ideal site for sanitary landfill is a challenge for urban planners and solid waste managers. Disposal site is a function of many parameters. Among all, Geotechnical parameters are very vital as the same is related to surrounding open land. Moreover, the accessible safe and acceptable land is also scarce. Therefore, in this paper geotechnical parameters are used to develop a GIS model to identify an ideal location for landfill purpose. Metropolitan city of Surat is highly populated and fastest growing urban area in India. The research objectives are to conduct field experiments to collect data and to transfer the facts in GIS platform to evolve a model, to find ideal location. Planners’ preferences were obtained to use analytical hierarchical process (AHP) to find weights of each parameter. Integration of GIS and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques are applied to improve decision-making. It augments an environment for transformation and combination of geographical data and planners’ preferences. GIS performs deterministic overlay and buffer operations. MCDA methods evaluate alternatives based on the decision makers’ subjective values and priorities. Research results have shown many alternative locations. Economic analysis of selected site from actual operations point of view is not included in this research.

Keywords: GIS, AHP, MCDA, Geo-technical

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Authors: Abdulmajid Mukhtar Afat

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This paper aims at introducing finite automata theory, the different ways to describe regular languages and create a program to implement the subset construction algorithms to convert nondeterministic finite automata (NFA) to deterministic finite automata (DFA). This program is written in c++ programming language. The program reads FA 5tuples from text file and then classifies it into either DFA or NFA. For DFA, the program will read the string w and decide whether it is acceptable or not. If accepted, the program will save the tracking path and point it out. On the other hand, when the automation is NFA, the program will change the Automation to DFA so that it is easy to track and it can decide whether the w exists in the regular language or not.

Keywords: finite automata, subset construction, DFA, NFA

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Authors: Mikheil Kalmakhelidze

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Record linkage (RL) problem has become more and more important in recent years due to the growing interest towards big data analysis. The problem can be formulated in a very simple way: Given two entries a and b of a database, decide whether they represent the same object or not. There are two classical deterministic and probabilistic ways of solving the RL problem. Using simple Bayes classifier in many cases produces useful results but sometimes they show to be poor. In recent years several successful approaches have been made towards solving specific RL problems by neural network algorithms including single layer perception, multilayer back propagation network etc. In our work, we model the RL problem for specific dataset of student applications in fuzzy description logic (FDL) where linkage of specific pair (a,b) depends on the truth value of corresponding formula A(a,b) in a canonical FDL model. As a main result, we build neural network for deciding truth value of FDL formulas in a canonical model and thus link RL problem to machine learning. We apply the approach to dataset with 10000 entries and also compare to classical RL solving approaches. The results show to be more accurate than standard probabilistic approach.

Keywords: description logic, fuzzy logic, neural networks, record linkage

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Authors: Malcolm Dinovitzer, Calvin Miller, Adam Hacker, Gabriel Wong, Zach Annen, Padmassun Rajakareyar, Jordan Mulvihill, Mostafa S.A. ElSayed

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The research work presented in this paper is developed by the Blended Wing Body (BWB) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) team, a fourth-year capstone project at Carleton University Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering. Here, a clean sheet UAV with BWB configuration is designed and optimized using Multiscale Design Optimization (MSDO) approach employing lattice materials taking into consideration design for additive manufacturing constraints. The BWB-UAV is being developed with a mission profile designed for surveillance purposes with a minimum payload of 1000 grams. To demonstrate the design methodology, a single design loop of a sample rib from the airframe is shown in details. This includes presentation of the conceptual design, materials selection, experimental characterization and residual thermal stress distribution analysis of additively manufactured materials, manufacturing constraint identification, critical loads computations, stress analysis and design optimization. A dynamic turbulent critical load case was identified composed of a 1-g static maneuver with an incremental Power Spectral Density (PSD) gust which was used as a deterministic design load case for the design optimization. 2D flat plate Doublet Lattice Method (DLM) was used to simulate aerodynamics in the aeroelastic analysis. The aerodynamic results were verified versus a 3D CFD analysis applying Spalart-Allmaras and SST k-omega turbulence to the rigid UAV and vortex lattice method applied in the OpenVSP environment. Design optimization of a single rib was conducted using topology optimization as well as MSDO. Compared to a solid rib, weight savings of 36.44% and 59.65% were obtained for the topology optimization and the MSDO, respectively. These results suggest that MSDO is an acceptable alternative to topology optimization in weight critical applications while preserving the functional requirements.

Keywords: blended wing body, multiscale design optimization, additive manufacturing, unmanned aerial vehicle

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Authors: Sanam Haseen, Abdul Bari

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In this paper a three stage multivariate programming problem with random survey cost and variances as random variables has been formulated as a non-linear stochastic programming problem. The problem has been converted into an equivalent deterministic form using chance constraint programming and modified E-modeling. An empirical study of the problem has been done at the end of the paper using R-simulation.

Keywords: chance constraint programming, modified E-model, stochastic programming, stratified sample surveys, three stage sample surveys

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Authors: Marianna Bolla

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The aim of this paper is to compare spectral, discrepancy, and degree properties of expanding graph sequences. As we can prove equivalences and implications between them and the definition of the generalized (multiclass) quasirandomness of Lovasz–Sos (2008), they can be regarded as generalized quasirandom properties akin to the equivalent quasirandom properties of the seminal Chung-Graham-Wilson paper (1989) in the one-class scenario. Since these properties are valid for deterministic graph sequences, irrespective of stochastic models, the partial implications also justify for low-dimensional embedding of large-scale graphs and for discrepancy minimizing spectral clustering.

Keywords: generalized random graphs, multiway discrepancy, normalized modularity spectra, spectral clustering

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Authors: H. E. Keshta, A. A. Ali

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Three phase grid-tied inverters are widely employed in micro-grids (MGs) as interphase between DC and AC systems. These inverters are usually controlled through standard decoupled d–q vector control strategy based on proportional integral (PI) controllers. Recently, advanced meta-heuristic optimization techniques have been used instead of deterministic methods to obtain optimum PI controller parameters. This paper provides a comparative study between the performance of the global Porcellio Scaber algorithm (GPSA) based PI controller and Manta Ray foraging optimization (MRFO) based PI controller.

Keywords: micro-grids, optimization techniques, grid-tied inverter control, PI controller

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Authors: Huseyin Guler, Cigdem Kosar

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The aim of this study is to propose Bridge estimator for seasonal unit root tests. Seasonality is an important factor for many economic time series. Some variables may contain seasonal patterns and forecasts that ignore important seasonal patterns have a high variance. Therefore, it is very important to eliminate seasonality for seasonal macroeconomic data. There are some methods to eliminate the impacts of seasonality in time series. One of them is filtering the data. However, this method leads to undesired consequences in unit root tests, especially if the data is generated by a stochastic seasonal process. Another method to eliminate seasonality is using seasonal dummy variables. Some seasonal patterns may result from stationary seasonal processes, which are modelled using seasonal dummies but if there is a varying and changing seasonal pattern over time, so the seasonal process is non-stationary, deterministic seasonal dummies are inadequate to capture the seasonal process. It is not suitable to use seasonal dummies for modeling such seasonally nonstationary series. Instead of that, it is necessary to take seasonal difference if there are seasonal unit roots in the series. Different alternative methods are proposed in the literature to test seasonal unit roots, such as Dickey, Hazsa, Fuller (DHF) and Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, Yoo (HEGY) tests. HEGY test can be also used to test the seasonal unit root in different frequencies (monthly, quarterly, and semiannual). Another issue in unit root tests is the lag selection. Lagged dependent variables are added to the model in seasonal unit root tests as in the unit root tests to overcome the autocorrelation problem. In this case, it is necessary to choose the lag length and determine any deterministic components (i.e., a constant and trend) first, and then use the proper model to test for seasonal unit roots. However, this two-step procedure might lead size distortions and lack of power in seasonal unit root tests. Recent studies show that Bridge estimators are good in selecting optimal lag length while differentiating nonstationary versus stationary models for nonseasonal data. The advantage of this estimator is the elimination of the two-step nature of conventional unit root tests and this leads a gain in size and power. In this paper, the Bridge estimator is proposed to test seasonal unit roots in a HEGY model. A Monte-Carlo experiment is done to determine the efficiency of this approach and compare the size and power of this method with HEGY test. Since Bridge estimator performs well in model selection, our approach may lead to some gain in terms of size and power over HEGY test.

Keywords: bridge estimators, HEGY test, model selection, seasonal unit root

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Authors: Aafaf El Jazouli, Ahmed Barakat, Rida Khellouk

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Mapping of soil degradation is derived from field observations, laboratory measurements, and remote sensing data, integrated quantitative methods to map the spatial characteristics of soil properties at different spatial and temporal scales to provide up-to-date information on the field. Since soil salinity, texture and organic matter play a vital role in assessing topsoil characteristics and soil quality, remote sensing can be considered an effective method for studying these properties. The main objective of this research is to asses soil degradation by combining remote sensing data and laboratory analysis. In order to achieve this goal, the required study of soil samples was taken at 50 locations in the upper basin of Oum Er Rbia in the Middle Atlas in Morocco. These samples were dried, sieved to 2 mm and analyzed in the laboratory. Landsat 8 OLI imagery was analyzed using physical or empirical methods to derive soil properties. In addition, remote sensing can serve as a supporting data source. Deterministic potential (Spline and Inverse Distance weighting) and probabilistic interpolation methods (ordinary kriging and universal kriging) were used to produce maps of each grain size class and soil properties using GIS software. As a result, a correlation was found between soil texture and soil organic matter content. This approach developed in ongoing research will improve the prospects for the use of remote sensing data for mapping soil degradation in arid and semi-arid environments.

Keywords: Soil degradation, GIS, interpolation methods (spline, IDW, kriging), Landsat 8 OLI, Oum Er Rbia high basin

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Authors: Iulia E. Falcan

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The transition of the European power sector towards a clean, renewable energy (RE) system faces the challenge of meeting power demand in times of low wind speed and low solar radiation, at a reasonable cost. This is likely to be achieved through a combination of 1) energy storage technologies, 2) development of the cross-border power grid, 3) installed overcapacity of RE and 4) dispatchable power sources – such as biomass. This paper uses NASA; derived hourly data on weather patterns of sixteen European countries for the past twenty-five years, and load data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators-Electricity (ENTSO-E), to develop a stochastic optimization model. This model aims to understand the synergies between the four classes of technologies mentioned above and to determine the optimal configuration of the energy technologies portfolio. While this issue has been addressed before, it was done so using deterministic models that extrapolated historic data on weather patterns and power demand, as well as ignoring the risk of an unbalanced grid-risk stemming from both the supply and the demand side. This paper aims to explicitly account for the inherent uncertainty in the energy system transition. It articulates two levels of uncertainty: a) the inherent uncertainty in future weather patterns and b) the uncertainty of fully meeting power demand. The first level of uncertainty is addressed by developing probability distributions for future weather data and thus expected power output from RE technologies, rather than known future power output. The latter level of uncertainty is operationalized by introducing a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) constraint in the portfolio optimization problem. By setting the risk threshold at different levels – 1%, 5% and 10%, important insights are revealed regarding the synergies of the different energy technologies, i.e., the circumstances under which they behave as either complements or substitutes to each other. The paper concludes that allowing for uncertainty in expected power output - rather than extrapolating historic data - paints a more realistic picture and reveals important departures from results of deterministic models. In addition, explicitly acknowledging the risk of an unbalanced grid - and assigning it different thresholds - reveals non-linearity in the cost functions of different technology portfolio configurations. This finding has significant implications for the design of the European energy mix.

Keywords: cross-border grid extension, energy storage technologies, energy system transition, stochastic portfolio optimization

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Authors: Hassan Manouzi, Taous-Meriem Laleg-Kirati

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In this paper we study mathematically the eigenvalue problem for stochastic elliptic partial differential equation of Wick type. Using the Wick-product and the Wiener-Ito chaos expansion, the stochastic eigenvalue problem is reformulated as a system of an eigenvalue problem for a deterministic partial differential equation and elliptic partial differential equations by using the Fredholm alternative. To reduce the computational complexity of this system, we shall use a decomposition-coordination method. Once this approximation is performed, the statistics of the numerical solution can be easily evaluated.

Keywords: eigenvalue problem, Wick product, SPDEs, finite element, Wiener-Ito chaos expansion

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Authors: Hillary Mwongyera

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The Semliki basin has become a frontier for petroleum exploration in recent years. Exploration efforts have resulted into extensive seismic data acquisition and drilling of three wells namely; Turaco 1, Turaco 2 and Turaco 3. A petrophysical analysis of the Turaco 1 well was carried out to identify two reservoir zones on which AVO modeling was performed. A combination of seismic modeling and rock physics modeling was applied during reservoir characterization and monitoring to determine variations of seismic responses with amplitude characteristics. AVO intercept gradient analysis applied on AVO synthetic CDP gathers classified AVO anomalies associated with both reservoir zones as Class 1 AVO anomalies. Fluid replacement modeling was carried out on both reservoir zones using homogeneous mixing and patchy saturation patterns to determine effects of fluid substitution on rock property interactions. For both homogeneous mixing and saturation patterns, density (ρ) showed an increasing trend with increasing brine substitution while Shear wave velocity (Vs) decreased with increasing brine substitution. A study of compressional wave velocity (Vp) with increasing brine substitution for both homogeneous mixing and patchy saturation gave quite interesting results. During patchy saturation, Vp increased with increasing brine substitution. During homogeneous mixing however, Vp showed a slightly decreasing trend with increasing brine substitution but increased tremendously towards and at full brine saturation. A sensitivity analysis carried out showed that density was a very sensitive rock property responding to brine saturation except at full brine saturation during homogeneous mixing where Vp showed greater sensitivity with brine saturation. Rock physics modeling was performed to predict diagnostics of reservoir quality using an inverse deterministic approach which showed low shale content and a high degree of shale stiffness within reservoir zones.

Keywords: Amplitude Versus Offset (AVO), fluid replacement modelling, reservoir characterization, AVO attributes, rock physics modelling, reservoir monitoring

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Authors: Firman Riyudha, Endrik Mifta Shaiful

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The spread of drug users is one kind of behavioral epidemiology that becomes a threat to every country in the world. This problem caused various crisis simultaneously, including financial or economic crisis, social, health, until human crisis. Most drug users are teenagers at school age. A new deterministic model would be constructed to determine the dynamics of the spread of drug users by considering level of education in a susceptible population. Based on the analytical model, two equilibria points were obtained; there were E₀ (zero user) and E₁ (endemic equilibrium). Existence of equilibrium and local stability of equilibria depended on the Basic Reproduction Ratio (R₀). This parameter was defined as the expected rate of secondary prevalence and primary prevalence in virgin population along spreading primary prevalence. The zero-victim equilibrium would be locally asymptotically stable if R₀ < 1 while if R₀ > 1 the endemic equilibrium would be locally asymptotically stable. The result showed that R₀ was proportional to the rate of interaction of each susceptible population based on educational level with the users' population. It is concluded that there was a need to be given a control in interaction, so that drug users population could be minimized. Numerical simulations were also provided to support analytical results.

Keywords: drugs users, level education, mathematical model, stability

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Authors: Hasik Lee, Seung-Young Kho

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Nowadays, automatic fare collection (AFC) system is widely used in many countries. However, smart card data from many of cities does not contain alighting information which is necessary to build OD matrices. Therefore, in order to utilize smart card data, destinations of passengers should be estimated. In this paper, kernel density estimation was used to forecast probabilities of alighting stations of bus passengers and applied to smart card data in Seoul, Korea which contains boarding and alighting information. This method was also validated with actual data. In some cases, stochastic method was more accurate than deterministic method. Therefore, it is sufficiently accurate to be used to build OD matrices.

Keywords: destination estimation, Kernel density estimation, smart card data, validation

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Authors: Shoji Katagiri

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This paper is to clarify the relationship between ICT and income inequality. To do so, we develop the general equilibrium model with ICT investment, obtain the equilibrium solutions, and then simulate the model with these solutions for some OECD countries. As a result, generally, during the corresponding periods we confirm that the relationship between ICT investment and income inequality is positive. In this mode, the increment of the ratio of ICT investment to the aggregated investment in stock enhances the capital’s share of income, and finally leads to income inequality such as the increase of the share of the top decile income. Although we confirm the positive relationship between ICT investment and income inequality, the upward trend for that relationship depends on the values of parameters for the making use of the simulations and these parameters are not deterministic in the magnitudes on the calculated results for the simulations.

Keywords: ICT, inequality, capital accumulation, technology

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Authors: A. Anastasopoulou, A. Kolios, T. Somorin, A. Sowale, Y. Jiang, B. Fidalgo, A. Parker, L. Williams, M. Collins, E. J. McAdam, S. Tyrrel

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Developing countries are nowadays confronted with great challenges related to domestic sanitation services in view of the imminent water scarcity. Contemporary sanitation technologies established in these countries are likely to pose health risks unless waste management standards are followed properly. This paper provides a solution to sustainable sanitation with the development of an innovative toilet system, called Nano Membrane Toilet (NMT), which has been developed by Cranfield University and sponsored by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The particular technology converts human faeces into energy through gasification and provides treated wastewater from urine through membrane filtration. In order to evaluate the environmental profile of the NMT system, a deterministic life cycle assessment (LCA) has been conducted in SimaPro software employing the Ecoinvent v3.3 database. The particular study has determined the most contributory factors to the environmental footprint of the NMT system. However, as sensitivity analysis has identified certain critical operating parameters for the robustness of the LCA results, adopting a stochastic approach to the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) will comprehensively capture the input data uncertainty and enhance the credibility of the LCA outcome. For that purpose, Monte Carlo simulations, in combination with an artificial neural network (ANN) model, have been conducted for the input parameters of raw material, produced electricity, NO_X emissions, amount of ash and transportation of fertilizer. The given analysis has provided the distribution and the confidence intervals of the selected impact categories and, in turn, more credible conclusions are drawn on the respective LCIA (Life Cycle Impact Assessment) profile of NMT system. Last but not least, the specific study will also yield essential insights into the methodological framework that can be adopted in the environmental impact assessment of other complex engineering systems subject to a high level of input data uncertainty.

Keywords: sanitation systems, nano-membrane toilet, lca, stochastic uncertainty analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, artificial neural network

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Authors: Roberto M. G. Velásquez, Jonas R. Gazoli, Nelson Ponce Jr, Valério L. Borges, Alessandro Sete, Fernanda M. C. Tomé, Julian D. Hunt, Heitor C. Lira, Cristiano L. de Souza, Fabio T. Bindemann, Wilmar Wounnsoscky

Abstract:

Nowadays, society is working toward reducing energy losses and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as seeking clean energy sources, as a result of the constant increase in energy demand and emissions. Energy loss occurs in the gas pressure reduction stations at the delivery points in natural gas distribution systems (city gates). Installing pressure reduction turbines (PRT) parallel to the static reduction valves at the city gates enhances the energy efficiency of the system by recovering the enthalpy of the pressurized natural gas, obtaining in the pressure-lowering process shaft work and generating electrical power. Currently, the Brazilian natural gas transportation network has 9,409 km in extension, while the system has 16 national and 3 international natural gas processing plants, including more than 143 delivery points to final consumers. Thus, the potential of installing PRT in Brazil is 66 MW of power, which could yearly avoid the emission of 235,800 tons of CO2 and generate 333 GWh/year of electricity. On the other hand, an economic viability analysis of these energy efficiency projects is commonly carried out based on estimates of the project's cash flow obtained from several variables forecast. Usually, the cash flow analysis is performed using representative values of these variables, obtaining a deterministic set of financial indicators associated with the project. However, in most cases, these variables cannot be predicted with sufficient accuracy, resulting in the need to consider, to a greater or lesser degree, the risk associated with the calculated financial return. This paper presents an approach applied to the technical-economic viability analysis of PRTs projects that explicitly considers the uncertainties associated with the input parameters for the financial model, such as gas pressure at the delivery point, amount of energy generated by TRP, the future price of energy, among others, using sensitivity analysis techniques, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo methods. In the latter case, estimates of several financial risk indicators, as well as their empirical probability distributions, can be obtained. This is a methodology for the financial risk analysis of PRT projects. The results of this paper allow a more accurate assessment of the potential PRT project's financial feasibility in Brazil. This methodology will be tested at the Cuiabá thermoelectric plant, located in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and can be applied to study the potential in other countries.

Keywords: pressure reduction turbine, natural gas pressure drop station, energy efficiency, electricity generation, monte carlo methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: H. R. Kamali, A. Sadegheih, M. A. Vahdat-Zad, H. Khademi-Zare

Abstract:

In this paper, a single product, multi-echelon, multi-period closed loop supply chain is surveyed, including a variety of costs, time conditions, and capacities, to plan and determine the values and time of the components procurement, production, distribution, recycling and disposal specially for high-tech products that undergo a decreasing production cost and sale price over time. For this purpose, the mathematic model of the problem that is a kind of mixed integer linear programming is presented, and it is finally proved that the problem belongs to the category of NP-hard problems.

Keywords: closed loop supply chain, continuous price decrease, NP-hard, planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 338

Authors: Abdulmajid Mukhtar Afat

Abstract:

This paper aims at introducing nondeterministic finite automata with ε value which is used to perform some operations on languages. a program is created to implement the algorithm that converts nondeterministic finite automata with ε value (ε-NFA) to deterministic finite automata (DFA).The program is written in c++ programming language. The program inputs are FA 5-tuples from text file and then classifies it into either DFA/NFA or ε -NFA. For DFA, the program will get the string w and decide whether it is accepted or rejected. The tracking path for an accepted string is saved by the program. In case of NFA or ε-NFA automation, the program changes the automation to DFA to enable tracking and to decide if the string w exists in the regular language or not.

Keywords: DFA, NFA, ε-NFA, eclose, finite automata, operations on languages

Procedia PDF Downloads 468