Search results for: predictive modelling

Authors: Selamawit Mulubrhan Gidey

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Adama city, having an area of 29.86 km2, is one of the main cities in Ethiopia experiencing rapid growth in business and construction activities which in turn with an increasing number of vehicles at an alarming rate. For this reason, currently, there is an attempt to develop public transport assignment modeling in the city. Still, there is a huge gap in developing public transport assignments along the road segments of the city with operational and safety performance due to high traffic volume. Thus, the introduction of public transport assignment modeling in Adama City can have a massive impact on the road safety and capacity problem in the city. City transport modeling is important in city transportation planning, particularly in overcoming existing transportation problems such as traffic congestion. In this study, the Adama City transportation model was developed using the PTV VISUM software, whose transportation modeling is based on the four-step model of transportation. Based on the traffic volume data fed and simulated, the result of the study shows that the developed model has better reliability in representing the traffic congestion conditions in Adama city, and the simulation clearly indicates the level of congestion of each route selected and thus, the city road administrative office can take managerial decisions on public transport assignment so as to overcome traffic congestion executed along the selected routes.

Keywords: trip modelling, PTV VISUM, public transport assignment, congestion

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Authors: P. Abhishesh, B. S. Ryuh, Y. S. Oh, H. J. Moon, R. Akanksha

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This paper discusses about the conceptual design and development of the control system software using Programmable logic controller (PLC) for autonomous driving and agricultural operations of Multipurpose Agricultural Robot Platform (MARP). Based on given initial conditions by field analysis and desired agricultural operations, the structural design development of MARP is done using modelling and analysis tool. PLC, being robust and easy to use, has been used to design the autonomous control system of robot platform for desired parameters. The robot is capable of performing autonomous driving and three automatic agricultural operations, viz. hilling, mulching, and sowing of seeds in the respective order. The input received from various sensors on the field is later transmitted to the controller via ZigBee network to make the changes in the control program to get desired field output. The research is conducted to provide assistance to farmers by reducing labor hours for agricultural activities by implementing automation. This study will provide an alternative to the existing systems with machineries attached behind tractors and rigorous manual operations on agricultural field at effective cost.

Keywords: agricultural operations, autonomous driving, MARP, PLC

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Authors: Delna Shroff

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Merchant shipping is an occupation with a high rate of fatal injuries caused by organizational accidents and maritime disasters. In most accident investigations, the leader’s actions are under scrutiny and point out the necessity to investigate the leader’s decisions in critical conditions. While several leadership studies have been carried out in the past, there is a tendency for most research to focus on holders of formal positions. The unit of analysis in most studies has been the ‘individual.’ A need is, therefore, felt to adopt a practice-based perspective of leadership, understand how leadership emerges to affect maritime safety. This paper explores the phenomenon of distributed leadership among seafarers more holistically. It further examines the role of one form of distributed leadership, that is, planfully aligned leadership in the emergency response of the team. A mixed design will be applied. In the first phase, the data gathered by way of semi-structured interviews will be used to explore the seafarer’s implicit understanding of leadership. The data will be used to develop a conceptual framework of distributed leadership, specific to the maritime context. This framework will be used to develop a simulation. Experimental design will be used to examine the relationship between planfully aligned leadership and emergency response of the team members during navigation. Findings show that planfully aligned leadership significantly and positively predicts the emergency response of team members. Planfully aligned leadership leads to a better emergency response of the team members as compared to authoritarian leadership. In the third qualitative phase, additional data will be gathered through semi-structured interviews to further validate the findings to gain a more complete understanding of distributed leadership and its relation to emergency response. Above are the predictive results; the study expects to be a cornerstone of safety leadership research and has important implications for leadership development and training within the maritime industry.

Keywords: authoritarian leadership, distributed leadership, emergency response , planfully aligned leadership

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Authors: Azizah Che Omar

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The study provides a systematic literature review which analyzed the literature for the purpose of looking for concepts, theories, approaches and guidelines in order to propose a conceptual design model of interactive television advertising toward impulse purchase (iTVAdIP). An extensive review of literature was purposely carried out to understand the concepts of interactive television (iTV). Therefore, some elements; iTV guidelines, advertising theories, persuasive approaches, and the impulse purchase elements were analyzed to reach the scope of this work. The extensive review was also a necessity to achieve the objective of this study, which was to determine the concept of iTVAdIP design model. Through systematic review analysis, this study discovered that all the previous models did not emphasize the conceptual design model of interactive television advertising. As a result, the finding showed that the concept of the proposed model should contain the iTV guidelines, advertising theory, persuasive approach and impulse purchase elements. In addition, a summary diagram for the development of the proposed model is depicted to provide clearer understanding towards the concepts of conceptual design model of iTVAdIP.

Keywords: impulse purchase, interactive television advertising, human computer interaction, advertising theories

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Authors: Fahri Benli, Sitalakshmi Venkartraman, Ye Wei, Fiona Wahr

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A flipped classroom which is a form of blended learning shifts the focus from a teacher-centered approach to a learner-centered approach. However, not all learners are ready to take the active role of knowledge and skill acquisition through a flipped classroom and they continue to delve in a passive mode of learning. This challenges educators in designing, scaffolding and facilitating in-class activities for students to have active learning experiences in a flipped classroom environment. Experiential learning theories have been employed by educators in the past in physical classrooms based on the principle that knowledge could be actively developed through direct experience. However, with more of online teaching witnessed recently, there are inherent limitations in designing and simulating an experiential learning activity for an online environment. In this paper, we explore enhancing experiential learning using smart digital tools that could be employed in a flipped classroom within a higher education setting. We present the use of smart collaborative tools online to enhance the experiential learning activity to teach higher-order cognitive concepts of business process modelling as a case study.

Keywords: experiential learning, flipped classroom, smart software tools, online learning higher-order learning attributes

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Authors: Natascha C. D'Amico, Enzo Grossi, Giovanni Valbusa, Ala Malasevschi, Gianpiero Cardone, Sergio Papa

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Purpose: To characterize, through a radiomic approach, the nature of areas classified PI-RADS (Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System) 3/5, recognized in multiparametric prostate magnetic resonance with T2-weighted (T2w), diffusion and perfusion sequences with paramagnetic contrast. Methods and Materials: 24 cases undergoing multiparametric prostate MR and biopsy were admitted to this pilot study. Clinical outcome of the PI-RADS 3/5 was found through biopsy, finding 8 malignant tumours. The analysed images were acquired with a Philips achieva 1.5T machine with a CE- T2-weighted sequence in the axial plane. Semi-automatic tumour segmentation was carried out on MR images using 3DSlicer image analysis software. 45 shape-based, intensity-based and texture-based features were extracted and represented the input for preprocessing. An evolutionary algorithm (a TWIST system based on KNN algorithm) was used to subdivide the dataset into training and testing set and select features yielding the maximal amount of information. After this pre-processing 20 input variables were selected and different machine learning systems were used to develop a predictive model based on a training testing crossover procedure. Results: The best machine learning system (three-layers feed-forward neural network) obtained a global accuracy of 90% ( 80 % sensitivity and 100% specificity ) with a ROC of 0.82. Conclusion: Machine learning systems coupled with radiomics show a promising potential in distinguishing benign from malign tumours in PI-RADS 3/5 areas.

Keywords: machine learning, MR prostate, PI-Rads 3, radiomics

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Authors: Daryl Clement Knutt, Neela Badrie, Marsha Singh

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Quality assurance and product labelling are vital in the food and drink industry, as a tactical tool in a competitive environment. The food label is a principal marketing tool which also serves as a regulatory mechanism in the safeguarding of consumer well –being. The objective of this study was to evaluate the level of consumers’ use and understanding of food labeling information and knowledge pertaining to food quality assurance systems. The study population consisted of Trinidadian adults, who were over the age of 18 (n=384). Data collection was conducted via a self-administered questionnaire, which contained 31 questions, comprising of four sections: I. socio demographic information; II. food quality and quality assurance; III. use of Labeling information; and IV. laws and regulations. Sampling was conducted at six supermarkets, in five major regions of the country over a period of three weeks in 2014. The demographic profile of the shoppers revealed that majority was female (63.6%). The gender factor and those who were concerned about the nutrient content of their food, were predictive indicators of those who read food labels. Most (93.1%) read food labels before purchase, 15.4% ‘always’; 32.5% ‘most times’ and 45.2% ‘sometimes’. Some (42%) were often satisfied with the information presented on food labels, whilst 35.7% of consumers were unsatisfied. When the respondents were questioned on their familiarity with terms ‘food quality’ and ‘food quality assurance’, 21.3% of consumers replied positively - ‘I have heard the terms and know a lot’ whilst 37% were only ‘somewhat familiar’. Consumers were mainly knowledgeable of the International Standard of Organization (ISO) (51.5%) and Good Agricultural Practices GAP (38%) as quality tools. Participants ranked ‘nutritional information’ as the number one labeling element that should be better presented, followed by ‘allergy notes’ and ‘best before date’. Females were more inclined to read labels being the household shoppers. The shoppers would like better presentation of the food labelling information so as to guide their decision to purchase a product.

Keywords: food labels, food quality, nutrition, marketing, Trinidad, Tobago

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Authors: Nehal Adel Khalil, Amel Foad Ketat, Fairouz Elsayed Mohamed Ali, Nahla Abdelmoneim Hamid, Hazem Farag Manaa

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Background: Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) represents 15% of adult leukemias. Imatinib Mesylate (IM) is the gold standard treatment for new cases of CML. Treatment with IM results in improvement of the majority of cases. However, about 25% of cases may develop resistance. Sensitive and specific early predictors of IM resistance in CML patients have not been established to date. Aim: To investigate the value of miR-451 in CML as an early predictor for IM resistance in Egyptian CML patients. Methods: The study employed Real time Polymerase Reaction (qPCR) technique to investigate the leucocytic expression of miR-451 in fifteen newly diagnosed CML patients (group I), fifteen IM responder CML patients (group II), fifteen IM resistant CML patients (group III) and fifteen healthy subjects of matched age and sex as a control group (group IV). The response to IM was defined as < 10% BCR-ABL transcript level after 3 months of therapy. The following parameters were assessed in subjects of all the studied groups: 1- Complete blood count (CBC). 2- Measurement of plasma level of miRNA 451 using real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (qPCR). 3- Detection of BCR-ABL gene mutation in CML using qPCR. Results: The present study revealed that miR-451 was significantly down-regulated in leucocytes of newly diagnosed CML patients as compared to healthy subjects. IM responder CML patients showed an up-regulation of miR- 451 compared with IM resistant CML patients. Conclusion: According to the data from the present study, it can be concluded that leucocytic miR- 451 expression is a useful additional follow-up marker for the response to IM and a promising prognostic biomarker for CML.

Keywords: chronic myeloid leukemia, imatinib resistance, microRNA 451, Polymerase Chain Reaction

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Authors: Lakrim Abderrazak, Tahri Driss

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This paper presents a new behavioural electrothermal model of power Silicon Carbide (SiC) MOSFET under SPICE. This model is based on the MOS model level 1 of SPICE, in which phenomena such as Drain Leakage Current IDSS, On-State Resistance RDSon, gate Threshold voltage VGSth, the transconductance (gfs), I-V Characteristics Body diode, temperature-dependent and self-heating are included and represented using behavioural blocks ABM (Analog Behavioural Models) of Spice library. This ultimately makes this model flexible and easily can be integrated into the various Spice -based simulation softwares. The internal junction temperature of the component is calculated on the basis of the thermal model through the electric power dissipated inside and its thermal impedance in the form of the localized Foster canonical network. The model parameters are extracted from manufacturers' data (curves data sheets) using polynomial interpolation with the method of simulated annealing (S A) and weighted least squares (WLS). This model takes into account the various important phenomena within transistor. The effectiveness of the presented model has been verified by Spice simulation results and as well as by data measurement for SiC MOS transistor C2M0025120D CREE (1200V, 90A).

Keywords: SiC power MOSFET, DC electro-thermal model, ABM Spice library, SPICE modelling, behavioural model, C2M0025120D CREE.

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Authors: Wu Peng, Anders Liljerehn, Martin Magnevall

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In metal cutting, tool wear gradually changes the micro geometry of the cutting edge. Today there is a significant gap in understanding the impact these geometrical changes have on the cutting forces which governs tool deflection and heat generation in the cutting zone. Accurate models and understanding of the interaction between the work piece and cutting tool leads to improved accuracy in simulation of the cutting process. These simulations are useful in several application areas, e.g., optimization of insert geometry and machine tool monitoring. This study aims to develop an extended Kienzle force model to account for the effect of rake angle variations and tool flank wear have on the cutting forces. In this paper, the starting point sets from cutting force measurements using orthogonal turning tests of pre-machined flanches with well-defined width, using triangular coated inserts to assure orthogonal condition. The cutting forces have been measured by dynamometer with a set of three different rake angles, and wear progression have been monitored during machining by an optical measuring collaborative robot. The method utilizes the measured cutting forces with the inserts flank wear progression to extend the mechanistic cutting forces model with flank wear as an input parameter. The adapted cutting forces model is validated in a turning process with commercial cutting tools. This adapted cutting forces model shows the significant capability of prediction of cutting forces accounting for tools flank wear and different-rake-angle cutting tool inserts. The result of this study suggests that the nonlinear effect of tools flank wear and interaction between the work piece and the cutting tool can be considered by the developed cutting forces model.

Keywords: cutting force, kienzle model, predictive model, tool flank wear

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Authors: Guebli Abdelkader, Reguieg Madani, Belkadi Adel, Sbaa Bouabdellah

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The identification of mechanical variables in the motor performance trajectory has a prominent role in improving skill performance, error-exceeding, it contributes seriously to solving some problems of learning and training. The study aims to highlight the indicators of motor performance for Paralympic athletes during the practicing sports between modelling and between excellence in motor performance, this by taking into account the distinction of athlete practicing with special behavioral skills for the Paralympic athletes. In the study, we relied on the analysis of some previous research of biomechanical performance indicators during some of the events sports (shooting activities in the Paralympic athletics, shooting skill in the wheelchair basketball). The results of the study highlight the distinction of disabled practitioners of sporting events identified in motor performance during practice, by overcoming some physics indicators in human movement, as a lower center of body weight, increase in offset distance, such resistance which requires them to redouble their efforts. However, the results of the study highlighted the strength of the correlation between biomechanical variables of motor performance and the digital level achievement similar to the other practitioners normal.

Keywords: sports, the disabled, motor performance, Paralympic

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Authors: Razieh Arian, Hadi Adibi-Asl

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This paper investigates an efficient combustion modeling for cycle simulation of internal combustion engine (ICE) studies. The term “efficient model” means that the models must generate desired simulation results while having fast simulation time. In other words, the efficient model is defined based on the application of the model. The objective of this study is to develop math-based models for control applications or shortly control-oriented models. This study compares different modeling approaches used to model the ICEs such as mean-value models, zero dimensional, quasi-dimensional, and multi-dimensional models for control applications. Mean-value models have been widely used for model-based control applications, but recently by developing advanced simulation tools (e.g. Maple/MapleSim) the higher order models (more complex) could be considered as control-oriented models. This paper presents the enhanced zero-dimensional cycle-by-cycle modeling and simulation of a spark ignition engine with a two-zone combustion model. The simulation results are cross-validated against the simulation results from GT-Power package and show a good agreement in terms of trends and values.

Keywords: Two-zone combustion, control-oriented model, wiebe function, internal combustion engine

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Authors: Sandeep Kumar, Mahesh Kumar Jat, Rajib Sarkar

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Soil reinforced with randomly distributed fibers is an attractive means to improve the performance of soil in a cost effective manner. Static and dynamic characterization of fiber reinforced soil have become important to evaluate adequate performance for all classes of geotechnical engineering problems. Present study investigates the behaviour of fiber reinforced cohesionless soil through numerical simulation of triaxial specimen. The numerical model has been validated with the existing literature of laboratory triaxial compression testing. A parametric study has been done to find out optimum fiber content for shear resistance. Cyclic triaxial testing has been simulated and the stress-strain response of fiber-reinforced sand has been examined considering different combination of fiber contents. Shear modulus values and damping values of fiber-reinforced sand are evaluated. It has been observed from results that for 1.0 percent fiber content shear modulus increased 2.28 times and damping ratio decreased 4.6 times. The influence of amplitude of cyclic strain, confining pressure and frequency of loading on the dynamic properties of fiber reinforced sand has been investigated and presented.

Keywords: damping, fiber reinforced soil, numerical modelling, shear modulus

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Authors: Shweda Mohan, J. L. Nandagopal, S. Amritha

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This paper focuses on the dynamic modelling of unicycle robot. Two main concepts used for balancing unicycle robot are: reaction wheel pendulum and inverted pendulum. The pitch axis is modelled as inverted pendulum and roll axis is modelled as reaction wheel pendulum. The unicycle yaw dynamics is not considered which makes the derivation of dynamics relatively simple. For the roll controller, sliding-mode controller has been adopted and optimal methods are used to minimize switching-function chattering. For pitch controller, an LQR controller has been implemented to drive the unicycle robot to follow the desired velocity trajectory. The pitching and rolling balance could be achieved by two DC motors. Unicycle robot is a non-holonomic, non-linear, static unbalance system that has the minimal number of point contact to the ground, therefore, it is a perfect platform for researchers to study motion and balance control. These real-time solutions will be a viable solution for advanced robotic systems and controls.

Keywords: decoupled dynamics, linear quadratic regulator (LQR) control, Lyapunov function sliding mode control, unicycle robot, velocity and trajectory control

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Authors: Richard Wolfel, Amy Richmond

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Urban resilience and vulnerability are critical concepts in the modern city due to the increased sociocultural, political, economic, demographic, and environmental stressors that influence current urban dynamics. Urban scholars need help explaining urban resilience and vulnerability. First, cities are dominated by people, which is challenging to model, both from an explanatory and a predictive perspective. Second, urban regions are highly recursive in nature, meaning they not only influence human action, but the structures of cities are constantly changing due to human actions. As a result, explanatory frameworks must continuously evolve as humans influence and are influenced by the urban environment in which they operate. Finally, modern cities have populations, sociocultural characteristics, economic flows, and environmental impacts on order of magnitude well beyond the cities of the past. As a result, the frameworks that seek to explain the various functions of a city that influence urban resilience and vulnerability must address the complex adaptive nature of cities and the interaction of many distinct factors that influence resilience and vulnerability in the city. This project develops a taxonomy and framework for organizing and explaining urban vulnerability. The framework is built on a well-established political development model that includes six critical classes of urban dynamics: political presence, political legitimacy, political participation, identity, production, and allocation. In addition, the framework explores how environmental security and technology influence and are influenced by the six elements of political development. The framework aims to identify key tipping points in society that act as influential agents of urban vulnerability in a region. This will help analysts and scholars predict and explain the influence of both physical and human geographical stressors in a dense urban area.

Keywords: urban resilience, vulnerability, sociocultural stressors, political stressors

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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In construction projects, predicting project performance metrics accurately is essential for effective management and successful delivery. However, conventional methods often depend on fixed baseline plans, disregarding the evolving nature of project progress and external influences. To address this issue, we introduce a distinct approach based on machine learning to forecast key performance indicators, such as cost variance and earned value, for each Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) category within an urban road reconstruction project. Our proposed model leverages time series forecasting techniques, namely Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to predict future performance by analyzing historical data and project progress. Additionally, the model incorporates external factors, including weather patterns and resource availability, as features to improve forecast accuracy. By harnessing the predictive capabilities of machine learning, our performance forecasting model enables project managers to proactively identify potential deviations from the baseline plan and take timely corrective measures. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, we conduct a case study on an urban road reconstruction project, comparing the model's predictions with actual project performance data. The outcomes of this research contribute to the advancement of project management practices in the construction industry by providing a data-driven solution for enhancing project performance monitoring and control.

Keywords: project performance forecasting, machine learning, time series forecasting, cost variance, schedule variance, earned value management

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Authors: Gilbert Makanda, Roelf Sypkens

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A mathematical model for knowledge acquisition in teaching and learning is proposed. In this study we adopt the mathematical model that is normally used for disease modelling into teaching and learning. We derive mathematical conditions which facilitate knowledge acquisition. This study compares the effects of dropping out of the course at early stages with later stages of learning. The study also investigates effect of individual interaction and learning from other sources to facilitate learning. The study fits actual data to a general mathematical model using Matlab ODE45 and lsqnonlin to obtain a unique mathematical model that can be used to predict knowledge acquisition. The data used in this study was obtained from the tutorial test results for mathematics 2 students from the Central University of Technology, Free State, South Africa in the department of Mathematical and Physical Sciences. The study confirms already known results that increasing dropout rates and forgetting taught concepts reduce the population of knowledgeable students. Increasing teaching contacts and access to other learning materials facilitate knowledge acquisition. The effect of increasing dropout rates is more enhanced in the later stages of learning than earlier stages. The study opens up a new direction in further investigations in teaching and learning using differential equations.

Keywords: differential equations, knowledge acquisition, least squares nonlinear, dynamical systems

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Authors: Mohammed Habchi, Sidi Mohammed Mesli, Rafik Benallal, Mohammed Kotbi

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On the basis of four partial correlation functions and some geometric constraints obtained from neutron scattering experiments, a Reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) simulation has been performed in the study of the aqueous electrolyte LiCl6H2O at the glassy state. The obtained 3-dimensional model allows computing pair radial and orientational distribution functions in order to explore the structural features of the system. Unrealistic features appeared in some coordination peaks. To remedy to this, we use the Hybrid Reverse Monte Carlo (HRMC), incorporating an additional energy constraint in addition to the usual constraints derived from experiments. The energy of the system is calculated using an Environment Dependence Interaction Potential (EDIP). Ions effects is studied by comparing correlations between water molecules in the solution and in pure water at room temperature Our results show a good agreement between experimental and computed partial distribution functions (PDFs) as well as a significant improvement in orientational distribution curves.

Keywords: LiCl6H2O, glassy state, RMC, HRMC

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Authors: Zsuzsanna Schnell, Francesca Ervas

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Background: Our experimental pragmatic study confirms a basic tenet in the Relevance of theoretical views in language philosophy. It draws up a developmental trajectory of the maxims, revealing the cognitive difficulty of their interpretation, their relative place to each other, and the order they may follow in development. A central claim of the present research is that social-cognitive skills play a significant role in inferential meaning construction. Children passing the False Belief Test are significantly more successful in tasks measuring the recognition of the infringement of conversational maxims. Aims and method: We examine preschoolers' conversational and pragmatic competence in view of their mentalization skills. To do so, we use a measure of linguistic tasks containing 5 short scenarios for each Gricean maxim. We measure preschoolers’ ToM performance with a first- and second-order ToM task and compare participants’ ability to recognize the infringement of the Gricean maxims in view of their social cognitive skills. Results: Findings suggest that Theory of Mind has a predictive force of 75% concerning the ability to follow Gricean maxims efficiently. ToM proved to be a significant factor in predicting the group’s performance and success rates in 3 out of 4 maxim infringement recognition tasks: in the Quantity, Relevance and Manner conditions, but not in the Quality trial. Conclusions: Our results confirm that children’s communicative competence in social contexts requires the development of higher-order social-cognitive reasoning. They reveal the cognitive effort needed to recognize the infringement of each maxim, yielding a continuum of their cognitive difficulty and trajectory of development.

Keywords: developmental pragmatics, social cognition, preschoolers, maxim infringement, Gricean pragmatics

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Authors: Lubena Achmad, Herman Kristanto, Julian Dewantiningrum

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Background: The Bishop score is a standard method used to predict the success of induction. This examination tends to be subjective with high inter and intraobserver variability, so it was presumed to have a low predictive value in terms of the outcome of labor induction. Cervical length measurement using transvaginal ultrasound is considered to be more objective to assess the cervical length. Meanwhile, this examination is not a complicated procedure and less invasive than vaginal touché. Objective: To compare transvaginal ultrasound and Bishop score in predicting successful induction. Methods: This study was a prospective cohort study. One hundred and twenty women with singleton pregnancies undergoing induction of labor at 37 – 42 weeks and met inclusion and exclusion criteria were enrolled in this study. Cervical assessment by both transvaginal ultrasound and Bishop score were conducted prior induction. The success of labor induction was defined as an ability to achieve active phase ≤ 12 hours after induction. To figure out the best cut-off point of cervical length and Bishop score, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine which factors best-predicted induction success. Results: This study showed significant differences in terms of age, premature rupture of the membrane, the Bishop score, cervical length and funneling as significant predictors of successful induction. Using ROC curves found that the best cut-off point for prediction of successful induction was 25.45 mm for cervical length and 3 for Bishop score. Logistic regression was performed and showed only premature rupture of membranes and cervical length ≤ 25.45 that significantly predicted the success of labor induction. By excluding premature rupture of the membrane as the indication of induction, cervical length less than 25.3 mm was a better predictor of successful induction. Conclusion: Compared to Bishop score, cervical length using transvaginal ultrasound was a better predictor of successful induction.

Keywords: Bishop Score, cervical length, induction, successful induction, transvaginal sonography

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Authors: Yiğit Gürler, Berkay Türkcan İmrağ, Taylan Güçkıran, İbrahim Şimşek, Alper Taşdemirci

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Paper honeycombs, which is a sandwich structure, consists of two liner faces and one paper honeycomb core. These materials are widely used in the packaging industry due to their low cost, low weight, good energy absorption capabilities and easy recycling properties. However, to provide maximum protection to the products in cases such as the drop of the packaged products, the mechanical behavior of these materials should be well known at the packaging design stage. In this study, the necessary input parameters for the modeling study were obtained by performing compression tests in the through-thickness and in-plane directions of paper-based honeycomb sandwich structures. With the obtained parameters, homogeneous and micro-mechanical numerical models were developed in the Ls-Dyna environment. The material card used for the homogeneous model is MAT_MODIFIED_HONEYCOMB, and the material card used for the micromechanical model is MAT_PIECEWISE_LINEAR_PLASTICITY. As a result, the effectiveness of homogeneous and micromechanical modeling approaches for paper-based honeycomb sandwich structure was investigated using force-displacement curves. Densification points and peak points on these curves will be compared.

Keywords: environmental packaging, mechanical characterization, Ls-Dyna, sandwich structure

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Authors: Muhammad Jamil, Ning He, Aqib Mashood Khan, Munish Kumar Gupta

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Ti-6Al-4V has numerous applications in the medical, automobile, and aerospace industries due to corrosion resistivity, structural stability, and chemical inertness to most fluids at room temperature. These peculiar characteristics are beneficial for their application and present formidable challenges during machining. Machining of Ti-6Al-4V produces an elevated cutting temperature above 1000oC at dry conditions. This accelerates tool wear and reduces product quality. Therefore, there is always a need to employ sustainable/effective coolant/lubricant when machining such alloy. In this study, Finite Element Modeling (FEM) and experimental analysis when cutting Ti-6Al-4V under a distinctly developed dry ice mixed hybrid lubri-coolant are presented. This study aims to model the milling process of Ti-6Al-4V under a proposed novel hybrid lubri-coolant using different cutting speeds and feed per tooth DEFORM® software package was used to conduct the FEM and the numerical model was experimentally validated. A comparison of experimental and simulation results showed a maximum error of no more than 6% for all experimental conditions. In a nutshell, it can be said that the proposed model is effective in predicting the machining temperature precisely.

Keywords: friction coefficient, heat transfer, finite element modeling (FEM), milling Ti-6Al-4V

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Authors: Syed Asif Hassan, Syed Atif Hassan

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Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is an infection caused by the resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis that do not respond either to isoniazid or rifampicin, which are the most important anti-TB drugs. The increase in the occurrence of a drug-resistance strain of MTB calls for an intensive search of novel target-based therapeutics. In this context LprG (Rv1411c) a lipoprotein from MTB plays a pivotal role in the immune evasion of Mtb leading to survival and propagation of the bacterium within the host cell. Therefore, a machine learning method will be developed for generating a computational model that could predict for a potential anti LprG activity of the novel antituberculosis compound. The present study will utilize dataset from PubChem database maintained by National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). The dataset involves compounds screened against MTB were categorized as active and inactive based upon PubChem activity score. PowerMV, a molecular descriptor generator, and visualization tool will be used to generate the 2D molecular descriptors for the actives and inactive compounds present in the dataset. The 2D molecular descriptors generated from PowerMV will be used as features. We feed these features into three different classifiers, namely, random forest, a deep neural network, and a recurring neural network, to build separate predictive models and choosing the best performing model based on the accuracy of predicting novel antituberculosis compound with an anti LprG activity. Additionally, the efficacy of predicted active compounds will be screened using SMARTS filter to choose molecule with drug-like features.

Keywords: antituberculosis drug, classifier, machine learning, molecular descriptors, prediction

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Authors: Penina Orenstein

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In today’s world, particularly with COVID-19 a constant worldwide threat, organizations need greater visibility over their supply chains more than ever before, in order to find areas for improvement and greater efficiency, reduce the chances of disruption and stay competitive. The concept of supply chain mapping is one where every process and route is mapped in detail between each vendor and supplier. The simplest method of mapping involves sourcing publicly available data including news and financial information concerning relationships between suppliers. An additional layer of information would be disclosed by large, direct suppliers about their production and logistics sites. While this method has the advantage of not requiring any input from suppliers, it also doesn’t allow for much transparency beyond the first supplier tier and may generate irrelevant data—noise—that must be filtered out to find the actionable data. The primary goal of this research is to build data maps of supply chains by focusing on a layered approach. Using these maps, the secondary goal is to address the question as to whether the supply chain is re-engineered to make improvements, for example, to lower the carbon footprint. Using a drill-down approach, the end result is a comprehensive map detailing the linkages between tier-one, tier-two, and tier-three suppliers super-imposed on a geographical map. The driving force behind this idea is to be able to trace individual parts to the exact site where they’re manufactured. In this way, companies can ensure sustainability practices from the production of raw materials through the finished goods. The approach allows companies to identify and anticipate vulnerabilities in their supply chain. It unlocks predictive analytics capabilities and enables them to act proactively. The research is particularly compelling because it unites network science theory with empirical data and presents the results in a visual, intuitive manner.

Keywords: data mining, supply chain, empirical research, data mapping

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Authors: Nicanor Garcia Alvarez, Belarmino Adenso-Diaz, Laura Calzada Infante

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In recent years, researchers have shown an interest in modelling maritime traffic as a complex network. In this paper, we propose a bipartite weighted network to model maritime traffic and detect port maritime communities. The bipartite weighted network considers two different types of nodes. The first one represents Spanish ports, while the second one represents the countries with which there is major import/export activity. The flow among both types of nodes is modeled by weighting the volume of product transported. To illustrate the model, the data is segmented by each type of traffic. This will allow fine tuning and the creation of communities for each type of traffic and therefore finding similar ports for a specific type of traffic, which will provide decision-makers with tools to search for alliances or identify their competitors. The traffic with the greatest impact on the Spanish gross domestic product is selected, and the evolution of the communities formed by the most important ports and their differences between 2019 and 2009 will be analyzed. Finally, the set of communities formed by the ports of the Spanish port system will be inspected to determine global similarities between them, analyzing the sum of the membership of the different ports in communities formed for each type of traffic in particular.

Keywords: bipartite networks, competition, infomap, maritime traffic, port communities

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Authors: Sakir Tasdemir, Mustafa Altin, Gamze Fahriye Pehlivan, Sadiye Didem Boztepe Erkis, Ismail Saritas, Selma Tasdemir

Abstract:

Artificial intelligence applications are commonly used in industry in many fields in parallel with the developments in the computer technology. In this study, a fire room was prepared for the resistance of wooden construction elements and with the mechanism here, the experiments of polished materials were carried out. By utilizing from the experimental data, an artificial neural network (ANN) was modeled in order to evaluate the final cross sections of the wooden samples remaining from the fire. In modelling, experimental data obtained from the fire room were used. In the system developed, the first weight of samples (ws-gr), preliminary cross-section (pcs-mm2), fire time (ft-minute), fire temperature (t-oC) as input parameters and final cross-section (fcs-mm2) as output parameter were taken. When the results obtained from ANN and experimental data are compared after making statistical analyses, the data of two groups are determined to be coherent and seen to have no meaning difference between them. As a result, it is seen that ANN can be safely used in determining cross sections of wooden materials after fire and it prevents many disadvantages.

Keywords: artificial neural network, final cross-section, fire retardant polishes, fire safety, wood resistance.

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: A. Brahma

Abstract:

Drying is a phenomenon that accompanies the hardening of hydraulic materials. It can, if it is not prevented, lead to significant spontaneous dimensional variations, which the cracking is one of events. In this context, cracking promotes the transport of aggressive agents in the material, which can affect the durability of concrete structures. Drying shrinkage develops over a long period almost 30 years although most occurred during the first three years. Drying shrinkage stabilizes when the material is water balance with the external environment. The drying shrinkage of cementitious materials is due to the formation of capillary tensions in the pores of the material, which has the consequences of bringing the solid walls of each other. Knowledge of the shrinkage characteristics of concrete is a necessary starting point in the design of structures for crack control. Such knowledge will enable the designer to estimate the probable shrinkage movement in reinforced or prestressed concrete and the appropriate steps can be taken in design to accommodate this movement. This study is concerned the modelling of drying shrinkage of the hydraulic materials and the prediction of the rate of spontaneous deformations of hydraulic materials during hardening. The model developed takes in consideration the main factors affecting drying shrinkage. There was agreement between drying shrinkage predicted by the developed model and experimental results. In last we show that developed model describe the evolution of the drying shrinkage of high performances concretes correctly.

Keywords: drying, hydraulic concretes, shrinkage, modeling, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Nadine Wills

Abstract:

The whole life thinking of buildings (independent if these are commercial properties or residential properties) will raise if incentive systems are provided to investors, planners and users. The Use of Building Information Modelling (BIM)-Systems offers planners the possibility to plan and re-plan buildings for decades after a period of utilization without spending many capacities. The strategy-incentive should be to plan the building in a way that makes rescheduling possible by changing just parameters in the system and not re-planning the whole building. If users receive the chance to patient incentive systems, the building stock will have a long life period. Business models of tenant electricity or self-controlled operating costs are incentive systems for building –users to let fixed running costs decline without producing damages due to wrong purposes. BIM is the controlling body to ensure that users do not abuse the incentive solution and take negative influence on the building stock. The investor benefits from the planner’s and user’s incentives: the fact that the building becomes useful for the whole life without making unnecessary investments provides possibilities to make investments in different assets. Moreover, the investor gains the facility to achieve higher rents by merchandise the property with low operating costs. To execute BIM offers whole property life cycles.

Keywords: BIM, incentives, life cycle, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: Zoran Jovanovic, Zoran Masonicic, S. Dragutinovic, Z. Sakota

Abstract:

In this paper, results concerning flame propagation of various fuels in a particular combustion chamber with four tilted valves were elucidated. Flame propagation was represented by the evolution of spatial distribution of temperature in various cut-planes within combustion chamber while the flame front location was determined by dint of zones with maximum temperature gradient. The results presented are only a small part of broader on-going scrutinizing activity in the field of multidimensional modeling of reactive flows in combustion chambers with complicated geometries encompassing various models of turbulence, different fuels and combustion models. In the case of turbulence two different models were applied i.e. standard k-ε model of turbulence and k-ξ-f model of turbulence. In this paper flame propagation results were analyzed and presented for two different hydrocarbon fuels, such as CH4 and C8H18. In the case of combustion all differences ensuing from different turbulence models, obvious for non-reactive flows are annihilated entirely. Namely the interplay between fluid flow pattern and flame propagation is invariant as regards turbulence models and fuels applied. Namely the interplay between fluid flow pattern and flame propagation is entirely invariant as regards fuel variation indicating that the flame propagation through unburned mixture of CH4 and C8H18 fuels is not chemically controlled.

Keywords: automotive flows, flame propagation, combustion modelling, CNG

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Vishnu Nagendra, Marten Van Der Veen, Stefania Giodini

Abstract:

Effective humanitarian logistics operations are a cornerstone in the success of disaster relief operations. However, for effectiveness, they need to be demand driven and supported by adequate data for prioritization. Without this data operations are carried out in an ad hoc manner and eventually become chaotic. The current availability of geospatial data helps in creating models for predictive damage and vulnerability assessment, which can be of great advantage to logisticians to gain an understanding on the nature and extent of the disaster damage. This translates into actionable information on the demand for relief goods, the state of the transport infrastructure and subsequently the priority areas for relief delivery. However, due to the unpredictable nature of disasters, the accuracy in the models need improvement which can be done using remote sensing data from UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) or satellite imagery, which again come with certain limitations. This research addresses the need for a framework to combine data from different sources to support humanitarian logistic operations and prediction models. The focus is on developing a workflow to combine data from satellites and UAVs post a disaster strike. A three-step approach is followed: first, the data requirements for logistics activities are made explicit, which is done by carrying out semi-structured interviews with on field logistics workers. Second, the limitations in current data collection tools are analyzed to develop workaround solutions by following a systems design approach. Third, the data requirements and the developed workaround solutions are fit together towards a coherent workflow. The outcome of this research will provide a new method for logisticians to have immediately accurate and reliable data to support data-driven decision making.

Keywords: unmanned aerial vehicles, damage prediction models, remote sensing, data driven decision making

Procedia PDF Downloads 368