Search results for: long term effect

Authors: Xinrong Li, Jiawei Dai

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Food production, food safety, and the food supply chain are causing a great challenge to human health and the environment. Different kinds of food have different environmental costs. Therefore, a healthy diet can alleviate this problem to a certain extent. In this project, an online questionnaire was conducted to understand the purchase behaviour of consumers and their attitudes towards basic food information. However, the data shows that the public's current consumption habits and ideology do not meet the long-term development of sustainable social needs. In order to solve the environmental problems caused by the unbalanced diet of the public and the social problems of unequal food distribution, the purpose of this paper is to explore how to use the emerging media of VR to visualize food supply chain information so as to attract users' attention to the environmental cost of food. In this project, the food supply chain of imported and local cheese was compared side-by-side in the virtual reality environment, including the origin, transportation, sales, and other processes, which can effectively help users understand the difference between the two processes and environmental costs. Besides, the experimental data demonstrated that the participant would like to choose low environmental cost food after experiencing the whole process.

Keywords: virtual reality, information design, food supply chain, environmental cost

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Hayder Raad Hafuze, Munqith Saleem Dawood, Jamal Abdul Jabbar

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The effect of using both ultrasounds with laser in medical imaging of the biological tissue has been studied in this paper. Different wave lengths of incident laser light (405 nm, 532 nm, 650 nm, 808 nm and 1064 nm) were used with different ultrasound frequencies (1MHz and 3.3MHz). The results showed that, the change of acoustic intensity enhance the laser penetration of the tissue for different thickness. The existence of the ideal Raman-Nath diffraction pattern were investigated in terms of phase delay and incident angle.

Keywords: tissue, laser, ultrasound, effect, imaging

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Authors: Nasser-Eddine Attari

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After the earthquake many structures were classified as slightly damaged and, being uneconomic to replace them, at least in the short term, suitable means of repairs of the beam column joint area are being studied. Furthermore, there exist a large number of buildings that need retrofitting of the joints before the next earthquake. The paper reports the results of the experimental programme, constituted of three beam-column reinforced concrete joints at a scale of one to three (1/3) tested under the effect of a pre-stressing axial load acting over the column. The beams were subjected at their ends to an alternate cyclic loading under displacement control to simulate a seismic action. Strain and cracking fields were monitored with the help a digital recording camera. Following the analysis of the results, a comparison can be made between the performances in terms of ductility, strength, and mode of failure of the different strengthening solution considered.

Keywords: fibre reinforced polymers, joints, reinforced concrete, beam columns

Procedia PDF Downloads 422

Authors: Sheng-Che Chen, Keng-Ren Lin, Che-Hsin Lin, Hao-Yuan Tseng, Chih-Han Chang

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Teeth play an important role in providing the essential nutrients. The force loading of chewing on the crow is important condition to evaluate long-term success of many dental treatments. However, the quantification of the force regarding forces are distributed over the dental crow is still not well recognized. This study presents an industrial-grade piezoelectric-based multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) force sensor for measuring the distribution of the force distribute over the first molar. The developed sensor array is based on a flexible polyimide electrode and barium titanate-based MLCCs. MLCCs are commonly used in the electronic industry and it is a typical electric component composed of BaTiO₃, which is used as a capacitive material. The most important is that it also can be used as a force-sensing component by its piezoelectric property. In this study, to increase the sensitivity as well as to reduce the variation of different MLCCs, a treatment process is utilized. The MLCC force sensors are able to measure large forces (above 500 N), making them suitable for measuring the bite forces on the tooth crown. Moreover, the sensors also show good force response and good repeatability.

Keywords: force sensor array, multilayer ceramic capacitors, occlusal force, piezoelectric

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Authors: Ladislav Kristoufek, Helen Susannah Moat, Tobias Preis

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Data on the number of people who have committed suicide tends to be reported with a substantial time lag of around two years. We examine whether online activity measured by Google searches can help us improve estimates of the number of suicide occurrences in England before official figures are released. Specifically, we analyse how data on the number of Google searches for the terms “depression” and “suicide” relate to the number of suicides between 2004 and 2013. We find that estimates drawing on Google data are significantly better than estimates using previous suicide data alone. We show that a greater number of searches for the term “depression” is related to fewer suicides, whereas a greater number of searches for the term “suicide” is related to more suicides. Data on suicide related search behaviour can be used to improve current estimates of the number of suicide occurrences.

Keywords: nowcasting, search data, Google Trends, official statistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 340

Authors: Mimi Hafizah Abdullah, Hanani Farhah Harun, Nik Ruzni Nik Idris

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With the implied volatility as an important factor in financial decision-making, in particular in option pricing valuation, and also the given fact that the pricing biases of Leland option pricing models and the implied volatility structure for the options are related, this study considers examining the implied adjusted volatility smile patterns and term structures in the S&P/ASX 200 index options using the different Leland option pricing models. The examination of the implied adjusted volatility smiles and term structures in the Australian index options market covers the global financial crisis in the mid-2007. The implied adjusted volatility was found to escalate approximately triple the rate prior the crisis.

Keywords: implied adjusted volatility, financial crisis, Leland option pricing models, Australian index options

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Authors: Dana Aljadaa, Hasim Altan

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Japan’s strategy is based on improving the current resources and productivity by identifying the environmental challenges to progress further in many areas. For example, it will help in understanding the competitive challenges in the industry, emerging innovation, and other progresses. The present study seeks to examine the characteristics of sustainable practices using materials that will last longer and following environmental policies. There has been a major emphasis since 1990s and onwards about recycling and preserving the environment. Furthermore, the present paper analyses and argues how national interest in policy increases resource productivity. It is a universal law, but these actions may be different based on the unique situation of the country. In addition, the present study explains some of the strategies developed by the Environmental Agency of Japan in the last few years. There are a few resources reviewed involving ‘Strategy for an Environmental Nation in the 21st Century’ from 2001, ‘Clean Asia Initiative’ from 2008, and ‘New Growth Strategy’ from 2010. The present paper also highlights the emphasis on increasing efficiency, as it is an important part of sustainability. We finally conclude by providing reasoning on the impact and positivity of reducing production and consumption on the environment, resulting in a productive and progressive Japan for the near and long term future.

Keywords: eco-system, resource productivity, sound material-cycle, sustainable development

Procedia PDF Downloads 192

Authors: E. Tan, O. McKay, T. Clarnette T., D. Croagh

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Background: Historically with pancreatic trauma, complete disruption of the main pancreatic duct (MPD), classified as Grade IV-V by the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma (AAST), necessitated a damage-control laparotomy. This was to avoid mortality, shorten diet upgrade timeframe, and hence shorter length of stay. However, acute pancreatic resection entailed complications of pancreatic fistulas and leaks. With the advance of imaging-guided interventions, non-operative management such as percutaneous and transpapillary drainage of traumatic peripancreatic collections have been trialled favourably. The aim of this case series is to evaluate the efficacy of endoscopic ultrasound-guided (EUS) transmural drainage in managing traumatic peripancreatic collections as a less invasive alternative to traditional approaches. This study also highlights the importance of anatomical knowledge regarding peripancreatic collection’s common location in the lesser sac, the pancreas relationship to adjacent organs, and the formation of the main pancreatic duct in regards to the feasibility of therapeutic internal drainage. Methodology: A retrospective case series was conducted at a single tertiary endoscopy unit, analysing patient data over a 5-year period. Inclusion criteria outlined patients age 5 to 80-years-old, traumatic pancreatic injury of at least Grade IV and haemodynamic stability. Exclusion criteria involved previous episodes of pancreatitis or abdominal trauma. Patient demographics and clinicopathological characteristics were retrospectively collected. Results: The study identified 7 patients with traumatic pancreatic injuries that were managed from 2018-2022; age ranging from 5 to 34 years old, with majority being female (n=5). Majority of the mechanisms of trauma were a handlebar injury (n=4). Diagnosis was confirmed with an elevated lipase and computerized tomotography (CT) confirmation of proximal pancreatic transection with MPD disruption. All patients sustained an isolated single organ grade IV pancreatic injury, except case 4 and 5 with other intra-abdominal visceral Grade 1 injuries. 6 patients underwent early ERCP-guided transpapillary drainage with 1 being unsuccessful for pancreatic duct stent insertion (case 1) and 1 complication of stent migration (case 2). Surveillance imaging post ERCP showed the stents were unable to bridge the disrupted duct and development of symptomatic collections with an average size of 9.9cm. Hence, all patients proceeded to EUS-guided transmural drainage, with 2/7 patients requiring repeat drainages (case 6 and 7). Majority (n=6) had a cystogastrostomy, whilst 1 (case 6) had a cystoenterostomy due to feasibility of the peripancreatic collection being adjacent to duodenum rather than stomach. However, case 6 subsequently required repeat EUS-guided drainage with cystogastrostomy for ongoing collections. Hence all patients avoided initial laparotomy with an average index length of stay of 11.7 days. Successful transmural drainage was demonstrated, with no long-term complications of pancreatic insufficiency; except for 1 patient requiring a distal pancreatectomy at 2 year follow-up due to chronic pain. Conclusion: The early results of this series support EUS-guided transmural drainage as a viable management option for traumatic peripancreatic collections, showcasing successful outcomes, minimal complications, and long-term efficacy in avoiding surgical interventions. More studies are required before the adoption of this procedure as a less invasive and complication-prone management approach for traumatic peripancreatic collections.

Keywords: endoscopic ultrasound, cystogastrostomy, pancreatic trauma, traumatic peripancreatic collection, transmural drainage

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Authors: Hidayatul Fitri, Petr Šařec

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The use of organic fertilizer is increasing nowadays, and the application must be conducted accurately to provide the right benefits for plants and maintain soil health. Improper application of fertilizers can cause problems for both plants and the environment. This study investigated the liquid organic fertilizer application, particularly digestate, varied into different application doses concerning mitigation of adverse environmental impacts, improving water infiltration ability, and crop yields. The experiment was established into eight variants with different digestate doses, conducted on emission monitoring and soil physical properties. As a result, the digestate application with shallow injection (5 cm in depth) was confirmed as an appropriate technique for applying liquid fertilizer into the soil. Gas emissions resulted in low concentration and declined gradually over time, obviously proved from the experiment conducted under two measurements immediately after application and the next day. Applied various doses of liquid digestate fertilizer affected the emission concentrations of NH3 volatilization, differing significantly and decreasing about 40% from the first to second measurement. In this study, winter wheat crop production significantly increases under digestate application with additional N fertilizer. This study suggested the long-term application of digestate to obtain more alteration of soil properties such as bulk density, penetration resistance, and hydraulic conductivity.

Keywords: liquid organic fertilizer, digestate, application, ammonia, emission

Procedia PDF Downloads 266

Authors: Dua K. S. Y. Klaas, Monzur A. Imteaz, Ika Sudiayem, Elkan M. E. Klaas, Eldav C. M. Klaas

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Due to its porous nature, karst terrains – geomorphologically developed from dissolved formations, is vulnerable to water shortage and deteriorated water quality. Therefore, a solid comprehension on sub-surface flow of karst landscape is essential to assess the long-term availability of groundwater resources. In this paper, a single-continuum model using a finite difference model, MODLFOW, was constructed to represent an unconfined carbonate aquifer in a tropical karst island of Rote in Indonesia. The model, spatially discretized in 20 x 20 m grid cells, was calibrated and validated using available groundwater level and atmospheric variables. In the calibration and validation steps, Parameter Estimation (PEST) and geostatistical pilot point methods were employed to estimate hydraulic conductivity and specific yield values. The results show that the model is able to represent the sub-surface flow indicated by good model performances both in calibration and validation steps. The final model can be used as a robust representation of the system for future study on climate and land use scenarios.

Keywords: carbonate aquifer, karst, sub-surface flow, groundwater model

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Authors: Norasmah Othman, Suzana Mohamed, Salpiah Suradi

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Copreneurship is a term used to describe the business pattern of operations run by married couples who share commitment, goals, and responsibilities in handling a business. Research conducted overseas showed that copreneurship business activities grew quickly and played a role in elevating families’ and nations’ socio-economic standards. In Malaysia, copreneurship has long been cultivated by spouses. Thus, this study aimed to explore the factors that motivate married partners to start a copreneurship business, and who is the dominant partner in the management of this business. The study participants are four entrepreneurial couples who are SME business operators selected through purposive sampling. In-depth interviews and direct observation were used as methods of measurement for triangulation of qualitative data in this study. The findings of the interviews were administered using NVivo 8.0 software. The result shows that freedom is a key factor that drives entrepreneurs to set up copreneurship businesses, and that the husband dominates the management aspects of the business. The study gives an overview of the parties involved in entrepreneurship to provide understanding of the copreneurship concept as it is practiced. This study provides academic value by creating understanding of the importance of a harmonious family institution specifically for forming entrepreneurs in the familial environment in Malaysia.

Keywords: copreneurs, copreneurship, business management, enterprise

Procedia PDF Downloads 282

Authors: Bourenane Bouhafs Naziha

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ARTEA330EC is a fungicide used to inhibit the growth of many types of fungi on and cereals and rice, it is the single largest selling agrochemical that has been widely detected in surface waters in our area (Northeast Algerian). The studies on long-term genotoxic effects of fugicides in different tissues of fish using genotoxic biomarkers are limited. Therefore, in the present study DNA damage by propiconazole in freshwater fish Gambusia affinis by comet assays was investigated. The LC(50)- 96 h of the fungicide was estimated for the fish in a semi-static system. On this basis of LC(50) value sublethal and nonlethal concentrations were determined (25; 50; 75; and 100 ppm). The DNA damage was measured in erythrocytes as the percentage of DNA in comet tails of fishes exposed to above concentrations the fungicide. In general,non significant effects for both the concentrations and time of exposure were observed in treated fish compared with the controls. However It was found that the highest DNA damage was observed at the highest concentration and the longest time of exposure (day 12). The study indicated comet assay to be sensitive and rapid method to detect genotoxicity of propiconasol and other pesticides in fishes.

Keywords: genotoxicity, fungicide, propiconazole, freshwater, Gambusia affinis, alkaline single-cell gel electrophoresis

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: Salima Behdenna, Fatiha Barigou, Ghalem Belalem

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Due to the quick increase in the volume of Arabic opinions posted on various social media, Arabic sentiment analysis has become one of the most important areas of research. Compared to English, there is very little works on Arabic sentiment analysis, in particular aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA). In ABSA, aspect extraction is the most important task. In this paper, we propose a semantic aspect-based sentiment analysis approach for standard Arabic reviews to extract explicit aspect terms and identify the polarity of the extracted aspects. The proposed approach was evaluated using HAAD datasets. Experiments showed that the proposed approach achieved a good level of performance compared with baseline results. The F-measure was improved by 19% for the aspect term extraction tasks and 55% aspect term polarity task.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, opinion mining, Arabic, aspect level, opinion, polarity

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: L. Krpalkova, N. O' Mahony, A. Carvalho, S. Campbell, S. Harapanahalli, J. Walsh

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The objective of this study was to determine the effects of environmental stressors on the performance of lactating dairy cows and discuss some future trends. There exists a relationship between the meteorological data and milk yield prediction accuracy in pasture-based dairy systems. New precision technologies are available and are being developed to improve the sustainability of the dairy industry. Some of these technologies focus on welfare of individual animals on dairy farms. These technologies allow the automatic identification of animal behaviour and health events, greatly increasing overall herd health and yield while reducing animal health inspection demands and long-term animal healthcare costs. The data set consisted of records from 489 dairy cows at two dairy farms and temperature measured from the nearest meteorological weather station in 2018. The effects of temperature on milk production and behaviour of animals were analyzed. The statistical results indicate different effects of temperature on milk yield and behaviour. The “comfort zone” for animals is in the range 10 °C to 20 °C. Dairy cows out of this zone had to decrease or increase their metabolic heat production, and it affected their milk production and behaviour.

Keywords: behavior, milk yield, temperature, precision technologies

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Authors: S. Phanyaem

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This paper presents the confidence intervals for the effect size base on bootstrap resampling method. The meta-analytic confidence interval for effect size is proposed that are easy to compute. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the proposed confidence intervals with the existing confidence intervals. The best confidence interval method will have a coverage probability close to 0.95. Simulation results have shown that our proposed confidence intervals perform well in terms of coverage probability and expected length.

Keywords: effect size, confidence interval, bootstrap method, resampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 580

Authors: Gabriela Tutuanu

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The economic, social and environmental undesirable impact of the existing development pattern pushes to the adoption and use of a new development paradigm that of sustainable development. This paper intends to substantiate how the marketing can help the sustainable development. It begins with the subjects of sustainable development and sustainable marketing as they are discussed in literature. The sustainable development is a three dimensional concept which embeds the economic dimension, the social dimension and the environmental dimension that ask to have in view the simultaneous pursuit of economic prosperity, social equity and environmental quality. A major challenge to achieve these goals at business level and to integrate all three dimensions of sustainability is the sustainable marketing. The sustainable marketing is a relationship marketing that aims at building lasting relationships with the social and natural environment on a long-term thinking and futurity and this philosophy allows helping all three dimensions of sustainability. As marketing solutions that could contribute to the sustainable development. We advance the stimulation of sustainable demand, the constant innovation and improvement of sustainable products, the design and use of customized communication, a multichannel distribution network and the sale of sustainable products and services at fair prices. Their implementation will increase the economic, social and environmental sustainability at a large extent in the future if they are supported by political, governmental and legal authorities.

Keywords: sustainable development, sustainable marketing, sustainable demand, sustainable product, credible communication, multi-channel distribution network, fair price

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Authors: Mohammad Saber Eslamlou, Manouchehr Tabibian, Mahta Mirmoghtadaei

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The history of urban development and the increasing complexities of urban life have long been intertwined with different natural and man-made disasters. Sometimes, these unpleasant events have destroyed the cities forever. The growth of the urban population and the increase of social and economic resources in the cities increased the importance of developing a holistic approach to dealing with unknown urban disasters. As a result, the interest in resilience has increased in most of the scientific fields, and the urban planning literature has been enriched with the studies of the social, economic, infrastructural, and physical abilities of the cities. In this regard, different conceptual frameworks and patterns have been developed focusing on dimensions of resilience and different kinds of disasters. As the most frequent and likely natural disaster in Iran is flooding, the present study aims to develop a cause-effect model of urban resilience against flood in Karaj City. In this theoretical study, desk research and documentary studies were used to find the elements and dimensions of urban resilience. In this regard, 6 dimensions and 32 elements were found for urban resilience and a questionnaire was made by considering the requirements of TOPSIS techniques (pairwise comparison). The sample of the research consisted of 10 participants who were faculty members, academicians, board members of research centers, managers of the Ministry of Road and Urban Development, board members of New Towns Development Company, experts, and practitioners of consulting companies who had scientific and research backgrounds. The gathered data in this survey were analyzed using TOPSIS and Shannon Entropy techniques. The results show that Infrastructure/Physical, Social, Organizational/ Institutional, Structural/Physical, Economic, and Environmental dimensions are the most effective factors in urban resilience against floods in Karaj, respectively. Finally, a comprehensive model and a systematic framework of factors that affect the urban resilience of Karaj against floods was developed. This cause – effect model shows how different factors are related and influence each other, based on their connected structure and preferences.

Keywords: urban resilience, TOPSIS, Shannon entropy, cause-effect model of resilience, flood

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Authors: Alexander Zotov, Ilkin Osmanov, Emil Sakharov, Oleg Shelest, Aleksander Troitskiy, Robert Khabazov

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Objective: Thoracoscopic surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) includes two technologies in performing of operation. 1st strategy used is the AtriCure device (bipolar, nonirrigated, non clamping), 2nd strategy is- the Medtronic device (bipolar, irrigated, clamping). The study presents a comparative analysis of clinical outcomes of two strategies in thoracoscopic ablation of AF using AtriCure vs. Medtronic devices. Methods: In 2 center study, 123 patients underwent thoracoscopic ablation of AF for the period from 2016 to 2020. Patients were divided into two groups. The first group is represented by patients who applied the AtriCure device (N=63), and the second group is - the Medtronic device (N=60), respectively. Patients were comparable in age, gender, and initial severity of the condition. Among the patients, in group 1 were 65% males with a median age of 57 years, while in group 2 – 75% and 60 years, respectively. Group 1 included patients with paroxysmal form -14,3%, persistent form - 68,3%, long-standing persistent form – 17,5%, group 2 – 13,3%, 13,3% and 73,3% respectively. Median ejection fraction and indexed left atrial volume amounted in group 1 – 63% and 40,6 ml/m2, in group 2 - 56% and 40,5 ml/m2. In addition, group 1 consisted of 39,7% patients with chronic heart failure (NYHA Class II) and 4,8% with chronic heart failure (NYHA Class III), when in group 2 – 45% and 6,7%, respectively. Follow-up consisted of laboratory tests, chest Х-ray, ECG, 24-hour Holter monitor, and cardiopulmonary exercise test. Duration of freedom from AF, distant mortality rate, and prevalence of cerebrovascular events were compared between the two groups. Results: Exit block was achieved in all patients. According to the Clavien-Dindo classification of surgical complications fraction of adverse events was 14,3% and 16,7% (1st group and 2nd group, respectively). Mean follow-up period in the 1st group was 50,4 (31,8; 64,8) months, in 2nd group - 30,5 (14,1; 37,5) months (P=0,0001). In group 1 - total freedom of AF was in 73,3% of patients, among which 25% had additional antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs) therapy or catheter ablation (CA), in group 2 – 90% and 18,3%, respectively (for total freedom of AF P<0,02). At follow-up, the distant mortality rate in the 1st group was – 4,8%, and in the 2nd – no fatal events. Prevalence of cerebrovascular events was higher in the 1st group than in the 2nd (6,7% vs. 1,7% respectively). Conclusions: Despite the relatively shorter follow-up of the 2nd group in the study, applying the strategy using the Medtronic device showed quite encouraging results. Further research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of this strategy in the long-term period.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, clamping, ablation, thoracoscopic surgery

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Authors: Patsarawadee Paojinda, Waranya Imprasittichai, Sudaratana R. Krungkrai, Nirianne Marie Q. Palacpac, Toshihiro Horii, Jerapan Krungkrai

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Fusion of the last two enzymes in the pyrimidine biosynthetic pathway in the inversed order by having COOH-terminal orotate phosphoribosyltransferase (OPRT) and NH2-terminal orotidine 5'-monophosphate decarboxylase (OMPDC), as OMPDC-OPRT, are described in many organisms. Here, we produced gene fusions of Plasmodium falciparum OMPDC-OPRT and expressed the bifunctional protein in Escherichia coli. The enzyme was purified to homogeneity using affinity and anion-exchange chromatography, exhibited enzymatic activities and functioned as a dimer. The activities, although unstable, can be stabilized by its substrate and product during purification and long-term storage. Furthermore, the enzyme expressed a perfect catalytic efficiency (kcat/Km). The kcat was selectively enhanced up to 3 orders of magnitude, while the Km was not much affected and remained at low µM levels when compared to the monofunctional enzymes. The fusion of the two enzymes, creating a “super-enzyme” with perfect catalytic power and more flexibility, reflects cryptic relationship of enzymatic reactivaties and metabolic functions on molecular evolution.

Keywords: bifunctional enzyme, orotate phosphoribosyltransferase, orotidine 5'-monophosphate decarboxylase, plasmodium falciparum

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Authors: Dominik Kowitzke

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Housing constructions have direct and indirect environmental impacts especially caused by soil sealing and gray energy consumption related to the use of construction materials. Accordingly, the German government introduced regulations limiting additional annual soil sealing. At the same time, in many regions like metropolitan areas the demand for further housing is high and of current concern in the media and politics. It is argued that meeting this demand by making better use of the existing housing supply is more sustainable than the construction of new housing units. In this context, targeting the phenomenon of so-called over the housing of empty nest households seems worthwhile to investigate for its potential to free living space and thus, reduce the need for new housing constructions and related environmental harm. Over housing occurs if no space adjustment takes place in household lifecycle stages when children move out from home and the space formerly created for the offspring is from then on under-utilized. Although in some cases the housing space consumption might actually meet households’ equilibrium preferences, frequently space-wise adjustments to the living situation doesn’t take place due to transaction or information costs, habit formation, or government intervention leading to increasing costs of relocations like real estate transfer taxes or tenant protection laws keeping tenure rents below the market price. Moreover, many detached houses are not long-term designed in a way that freed up space could be rent out. Findings of this research based on socio-economic survey data, indeed, show a significant difference between the living space of empty nest and a comparison group of households which never had children. The approach used to estimate the average difference in living space is a linear regression model regressing the response variable living space on a two-dimensional categorical variable distinguishing the two groups of household types and further controls. This difference is assumed to be the under-utilized space and is extrapolated to the total amount of empty nests in the population. Supporting this result, it is found that households that move, despite market frictions impairing the relocation, after children left their home tend to decrease the living space. In the next step, only for areas with tight housing markets in Germany and high construction activity, the total under-utilized space in empty nests is estimated. Under the assumption of full substitutability of housing space in empty nests and space in new dwellings in these locations, it is argued that in a perfect market with empty nest households consuming their equilibrium demand quantity of housing space, dwelling constructions in the amount of the excess consumption of living space could be saved. This, on the other hand, would prevent environmental harm quantified in carbon dioxide equivalence units related to average constructions of detached or multi-family houses. This study would thus provide information on the amount of under-utilized space inside dwellings which is missing in public data and further estimates the external effect of over housing in environmental terms.

Keywords: empty nests, environment, Germany, households, over housing

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Authors: Kawsar Ahmed, Hong Wang

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The study's goal was to estimate the causal mediation impact of tobacco tax before and after price hikes among low-income male smokers, with a particular emphasis on the effect estimating pathways framework for continuous and dichotomous variables. From July to December 2021, a cross-sectional investigation of observational data (n=739) was collected from Bangladeshi low-wage smokers. The Quasi-Bayesian technique, binomial probit model, and sensitivity analysis using a simulation of the computational tools R mediation package had been used to estimate the effect. After a price rise for tobacco products, the average number of cigarettes or bidis sticks taken decreased from 6.7 to 4.56. Tobacco product rising prices have a direct effect on low-income people's decisions to quit or lessen their daily smoking habits of Average Causal Mediation Effect (ACME) [effect=2.31, 95 % confidence interval (C.I.) = (4.71-0.00), p<0.01], Average Direct Effect (ADE) [effect=8.6, 95 percent (C.I.) = (6.8-0.11), p<0.001], and overall significant effects (p<0.001). Tobacco smoking choice is described by the mediated proportion of income effect, which is 26.1% less of following price rise. The curve of ACME and ADE is based on observational figures of the coefficients of determination that asses the model of hypothesis as the substantial consequence after price rises in the sensitivity analysis. To reduce smoking product behaviors, price increases through taxation have a positive causal mediation with income that affects the decision to limit tobacco use and promote low-income men's healthcare policy.

Keywords: causal mediation analysis, directed acyclic graphs, tobacco price policy, sensitivity analysis, pathway estimation

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Authors: Ilona Pavlovska, Aneka Klavina, Agris Auce, Ivars Vanadzins, Alise Silova, Laura Komarovska, Linda Paegle, Baiba Silamikele, Linda Dobkevica

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Freshwater sapropel is a common material formed by complex biological transformations of Holocene sediments in the water basement of the lakes in Latvia that has the potential to be used as medical mud. Sapropel forms over a long period in shallow waters by slowly decomposing organic sediment and has different compositions depending on the location of the source, surroundings, the water regime, etc. Official geological survey of Latvia lakes, from Latvian lake database (ezeri.lv), used in the selection of the area of the exploration. The multifunctional effect of sapropel on the whole organism explained by its complex chemical and biological structure. This unique, organic substance and its ability to maintain heat for a long time ensures deep tissue warming and has a positive effect on the treatment of various joint and skin diseases. Sapropel is a valuable resource with multiple areas of application. Investigation of sapropel sediments and survey of the five sites selected according to the criteria performed in the current study. Also, our study includes sampling at different depths and their initial treatment, evaluation of external signs, and study of physical-chemical parameters, as well as analysis of biochemical parameters and evaluation of microbiological indicators. The main selection criteria were sapropel deposits depth, hydrological regime, the history of agriculture next to the lake, and the potential exposure to industrial waste. One hundred and five sapropel samples obtained from five lakes (Audzelu, Dunakla, Ivusku, Zielu, and Mazars Kivdalova) during the wintertime. The main goal of the study is to carry out detailed and systematic research on the medical properties of sapropel to be obtained in Latvia, to promote its scientifically based use in balneology, to develop new medical procedures and services, and to promote the development of new exportable products. Latvian freshwater sapropel could be used as raw material for getting sapropel extract and use it as a remedy. All mentioned above brings us to the main question for sapropel usage in medicine, balneology, and pharmacy “how to develop quality criteria for raw sapropel and its extracts. The research was co-financed by the project "Analysis of characteristics of medical sapropel and its usage for medical purposes and elaboration of industrial extraction methods" No.1.1.1.1/16/A/165.

Keywords: balneology, extracts, freshwater sapropel, Latvian lakes, medical mud, sapropel

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Authors: Narupon Kunbootsri, J. Kraipoj, K. Phandech, P. Sirasaporn

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Physiotherapy is one of the treatments for frozen shoulder but there was no data about the treatment of physiotherapy. Moreover, it is question about onset of symptom before physiotherapy program and obtaining physical modalities and delayed start physiotherapy program lead to delayed improvement. Thus the aim of this study was to investigate physiotherapy program for frozen shoulder on pain score, onset of symptom and obtaining physical modalities. A retrospective study design was conducted. 182 medical records of patients with frozen shoulder were reviewed. These frozen shoulders were treated at physiotherapy unit, department of Rehabilitation last 3 years (January, 2014- December, 2016). The data consist of onset of symptom, pain score and obtaining physical modalities were recorded. There was a statistically significant improve in pain score, pretreatment score mean 7.24±1.52 and the last follow up pain score mean 3.88± 1.0 [mean difference 3.18 with 95%CI were [2.45- 3.92]. In addition, the onset of symptoms was 145 days before obtaining physiotherapy program. The physical modalities used frequently were hot pack 14.8% and ultrasound diathermy 13.7%. In conclusion, the retrospective study show physiotherapy program including, hot pack and ultrasound diathermy seem to be useful for frozen shoulder in term of pain score. But onset of symptom is too long to start physiotherapy programs.

Keywords: frozen shoulder, physiotherapy, pain score, onset of symptom, physical modality

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Authors: Gul Jabeen Aizza Anwar, Tadas Sudnickas

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Pakistan’s service sector undeniably assumed a significant economic position that contributed to 58% to the GPD for several years. Yet, recent statistics record a meager growth of 0.86%. Certainly, the sector relies heavily on its workforce as a share dependency and their performance plays a crucial role for sector success. Using the Social Exchange theory (SET), the present study investigated the influence of ethical leadership (EL) on employee performance (EP), employee creativity (EC), and depression among administrative employees working in different fields within the service industry. The study also examined the mediating role of PWB and hope to predict the outcomes. Based on the quantitative, cross-sectional research design, the data was collected using a self-administered questionnaire from administrative staff (n=202) within the service sector of Pakistan. The findings suggested PWB mediates the relationship between EL, EP, and EC whereas depression was found an exception. In addition, hope only mediates EC mediates EC but does not find it mediating EP and depression. This study details important insights and implications for managers and leaders to improve their interactions with employees and create a healthier work environment for long-term sustainability.

Keywords: ethical leadership, employee creativity, Depression, social exchange theory

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Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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Authors: Salinee Thumronglaohapun

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The proper number and appropriate locations of service centers can save cost, raise revenue and gain more satisfaction from customers. Establishing service centers is high-cost and difficult to relocate. In long-term planning periods, several factors may affect the service. One of the most critical factors is uncertain demand of customers. The opened service centers need to be capable of serving customers and making a profit although the demand in each period is changed. In this work, the capacitated location-allocation problem with stochastic demand is considered. A mathematical model is formulated to determine suitable locations of service centers and their allocation to maximize total profit for multiple planning periods. Two heuristic methods, a local search and genetic algorithm, are used to solve this problem. For the local search, five different chances to choose each type of moves are applied. For the genetic algorithm, three different replacement strategies are considered. The results of applying each method to solve numerical examples are compared. Both methods reach to the same best found solution in most examples but the genetic algorithm provides better solutions in some cases.

Keywords: location-allocation problem, stochastic demand, local search, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Amir Andria Gad Shehata

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Minimizing the inventory cost, optimizing the inventory quantities, and increasing system operational availability are the main motivations to enhance forecasting demand of spare parts in a major power utility company in Medina. This paper reports in an effort made to optimize the orders quantities of spare parts by improving the method of forecasting the demand. The study focuses on equipment that has frequent spare parts purchase orders with uncertain demand. The pattern of the demand considers a lumpy pattern which makes conventional forecasting methods less effective. A comparison was made by benchmarking various methods of forecasting based on experts’ criteria to select the most suitable method for the case study. Three actual data sets were used to make the forecast in this case study. Two neural networks (NN) approaches were utilized and compared, namely long short-term memory (LSTM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). The results as expected, showed that the NN models gave better results than traditional forecasting method (judgmental method). In addition, the LSTM model had a higher predictive accuracy than the MLP model.

Keywords: spare part, spare part inventory, inventory model, optimization, maintenanceneural network, LSTM, MLP, forecasting demand, inventory management

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Authors: Parisa Golbayani, Dan Wang, Ionut¸ Florescu

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In this work we implement machine learning techniques to financial statement reports in order to asses company’s credit rating. Specifically, the work analyzes the performance of four neural network architectures (MLP, CNN, CNN2D, LSTM) in predicting corporate credit rating as issued by Standard and Poor’s. The paper focuses on companies from the energy, financial, and healthcare sectors in the US. The goal of this analysis is to improve application of machine learning algorithms to credit assessment. To accomplish this, the study investigates three questions. First, we investigate if the algorithms perform better when using a selected subset of important features or whether better performance is obtained by allowing the algorithms to select features themselves. Second, we address the temporal aspect inherent in financial data and study whether it is important for the results obtained by a machine learning algorithm. Third, we aim to answer if one of the four particular neural network architectures considered consistently outperforms the others, and if so under which conditions. This work frames the problem as several case studies to answer these questions and analyze the results using ANOVA and multiple comparison testing procedures.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, long short term memory, multilayer perceptron, credit rating

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Authors: Natasha Gabriella, Josef-Peter Schöggl, Alfred Posch

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Being a mature industry, pulp and paper industry (PPI) possess strength points coming from its existing infrastructure, technology know-how, and abundant availability of biomass. However, the declining trend of the wood-based products sales sends a clear signal to the industry to transform its business model in order to increase its profitability. With the emerging global attention on bio-based economy and circular economy, coupled with the low price of fossil feedstock, the PPI starts to integrate biorefinery as a value-added business model to keep the industry’s competitiveness. Nonetheless, biorefinery as an innovation exposes the PPI with some barriers, of which the uncertainty of the promising product becomes one of the major hurdles. This study aims to assess factors that affect the diffusion and development of forest biorefinery in the PPI, including drivers, barriers, advantages, disadvantages, as well as the most promising bio-based products of forest biorefinery. The study examines the identified factors according to the layer of business environment, being the macro-environment, industry, and strategic group level. Besides, an overview of future state of the identified factors is elaborated as to map necessary improvements for implementing forest biorefinery. A two-phase Delphi method is used to collect the empirical data for the study, comprising of an online-based survey and interviews. Delphi method is an effective communication tools to elicit ideas from a group of experts to further reach a consensus of forecasting future trends. Collaborating a total of 50 experts in the panel, the study reveals that influential factors are found in every layers of business of the PPI. The politic dimension is apparent to have a significant influence for tackling the economy barrier while reinforcing the environmental and social benefits in the macro-environment. In the industry level, the biomass availability appears to be a strength point of the PPI while the knowledge gap on technology and market seem to be barriers. Consequently, cooperation with academia and the chemical industry has to be improved. Human resources issue is indicated as one important premise behind the preceding barrier, along with the indication of the PPI’s resistance towards biorefinery implementation as an innovation. Further, cellulose-based products are acknowledged for near-term product development whereas lignin-based products are emphasized to gain importance in the long-term future.

Keywords: forest biorefinery, pulp and paper, bio-based product, Delphi method

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Authors: M. S. Sarkar, J. A. Johnson, S. Sen, G. K. Saha, K. Ramesh

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There is growing recognition of several important roles played by tigers for maintaining sustainable biodiversity at diverse ecosystems in South and South-East Asia. Only <3200 individuals are left in the wild because of poaching and habitat loss. Thus, restoring wild population is an emerging as well as important conservation initiative, but such efforts still remain challenging due to their elusive and solitary behavior. After careful translocation of few individuals, how reintroduced individuals colonize into suitable habitat and achieve stable stage population through reproduction is vital information for forest managers and policy makers of its 13 distribution range countries. Four wild and two captive radio collared tigers were reintroduced at Panna Tiger Reserve, Madhya-pradesh, India during 2009-2014. We critically examined their settlement behavior and population growth over the period. Results from long term telemetry data showed that male explored larger areas rapidly in short time span, while females explored small area in long time period and with significant high rate of movement in both sexes during exploratory period. Significant difference in home range sizes of tigers were observed in exploratory and settlement period. Though all reintroduced tigers preferred densely vegetated undisturbed forest patches within the core area of tiger reserve, a niche based k select analysis showed that individual variation in habitat selection was prominent among reintroduced tigers. Total 18 litter of >42 known cubs were born with low mortality rate, high maternity rate, high observed growth rate and short generation time in both the sexes. The population achieved its carrying capacity in a very short time span, marking success of this current tiger conservation programme. Our study information could provide significant insights on the tiger biology of translocated tigers with implication for future conservation strategies that consider translocation based recovery in their range countries.

Keywords: reintroduction, tiger, home range, demography

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