Search results for: residual risk

Authors: Nariman O. Kandil, Ehab K. Abou-Elkheir, Amr M. Kotb

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Effective IT governance guarantees the strategic alignment of IT and business goals, risk mitigation control, and better IT and business performance. This study seeks to examine empirically the extent of IT governance implementation within the firms listed on the Egyptian stock exchange (EGX30) and its determinants. Accordingly, 18 semi-structured interviews face to face, phone, and video-conferencing interviews using various tools (e.g., WebEx, Zoom, and Microsoft Teams) were undertaken at the interviewees’ offices in Egypt between the end of November 2019 and the end of August 2020. Results suggest that there are variances in the extent of IT Governance (ITG) implementation within the firms listed on the Egyptian stock exchange (EGX30), mainly caused by the industry type and internal and external triggers. The results also suggest that the organization size, the type of auditor, the criticality of the industry, the effective processes & KPIs, and the information intensity expertise of the CIO have a significant impact on IT governance implementation within the firms.

Keywords: effective IT governance, Egyptian market, information security, risk controls

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

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The main objective of this work is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in two key steps of seismic hazard and risk assessment of different types of structures. The first step is the development of ground-motion models, which are used for forecasting ground-motion intensity measures (IM) given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition for future events. IMs such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available. Second, it is investigated how machine learning techniques could be beneficial for developing probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDMs), which provide the relationship between the structural demand responses (e.g., component deformations, accelerations, internal forces, etc.) and the ground motion IMs. In the risk framework, such models are used to develop fragility curves estimating exceeding probability of damage for pre-defined limit states, and therefore, control the reliability of the predictions in the risk assessment. In this study, machine learning algorithms like artificial neural network, random forest, and support vector machine are adopted and trained on the demand parameters to derive PSDMs for them. It is observed that such models can provide more accurate estimates of prediction in relatively shorter about of time compared to conventional methods. Moreover, they can be used for sensitivity analysis of fragility curves with respect to many modeling parameters without necessarily requiring more intense numerical response-history analysis.

Keywords: artificial neural network, machine learning, random forest, seismic risk analysis, seismic hazard analysis, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: M. Reza Hashemi, Chris Small, Scott Hayward

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The Northeast Coast of the US faces damaging effects of coastal flooding and winds due to Atlantic tropical and extratropical storms each year. Historically, several large storm events have produced substantial levels of damage to the region; most notably of which were the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1938, Hurricane Carol, Hurricane Bob, and recently Hurricane Sandy (2012). The objective of this study was to develop an integrated modeling system that could be used as a forecasting/hindcasting tool to evaluate and communicate the risk coastal communities face from these coastal storms. This modeling system utilizes the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model for storm surge predictions and the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model for the wave environment. These models were coupled, passing information to each other and computing over the same unstructured domain, allowing for the most accurate representation of the physical storm processes. The coupled SWAN-ADCIRC model was validated and has been set up to perform real-time forecast simulations (as well as hindcast). Modeled storm parameters were then passed to a coastal risk assessment tool. This tool, which is generic and universally applicable, generates spatial structural damage estimate maps on an individual structure basis for an area of interest. The required inputs for the coastal risk model included a detailed information about the individual structures, inundation levels, and wave heights for the selected region. Additionally, calculation of wind damage to structures was incorporated. The integrated coastal risk assessment system was then tested and applied to Charlestown, a small vulnerable coastal town along the southern shore of Rhode Island. The modeling system was applied to Hurricane Sandy and a synthetic storm. In both storm cases, effect of natural dunes on coastal risk was investigated. The resulting damage maps for the area (Charlestown) clearly showed that the dune eroded scenarios affected more structures, and increased the estimated damage. The system was also tested in forecast mode for a large Nor’Easters: Stella (March 2017). The results showed a good performance of the coupled model in forecast mode when compared to observations. Finally, a nearshore model XBeach was then nested within this regional grid (ADCIRC-SWAN) to simulate nearshore sediment transport processes and coastal erosion. Hurricane Irene (2011) was used to validate XBeach, on the basis of a unique beach profile dataset at the region. XBeach showed a relatively good performance, being able to estimate eroded volumes along the beach transects with a mean error of 16%. The validated model was then used to analyze the effectiveness of several erosion mitigation methods that were recommended in a recent study of coastal erosion in New England: beach nourishment, coastal bank (engineered core), and submerged breakwater as well as artificial surfing reef. It was shown that beach nourishment and coastal banks perform better to mitigate shoreline retreat and coastal erosion.

Keywords: ADCIRC, coastal flooding, storm surge, coastal risk assessment, living shorelines

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Authors: M. H. Kazemi, D. Salac

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A semi-implicit phase field method for droplet evolution is proposed. Using the phase field Cahn-Hilliard equation, we are able to track the interface in multiphase flow. The idea of a semi-implicit finite difference scheme is reviewed and employed to solve two nonlinear equations, including the Navier-Stokes and the Cahn-Hilliard equations. The use of a semi-implicit method allows us to have larger time steps compared to explicit schemes. The governing equations are coupled and then solved by a GMRES solver (generalized minimal residual method) using modified Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization. To show the validity of the method, we apply the method to the simulation of a rising droplet, a leaky dielectric drop and the coalescence of drops. The numerical solutions to the phase field model match well with existing solutions over a defined range of variables.

Keywords: coalescence, leaky dielectric, numerical method, phase field, rising droplet, semi-implicit method

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Authors: Qiying Zhang, Panpan Xu, Hui Qian

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Groundwater is an important water resource in the world, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In the present study, 141 groundwater samples were collected and analyzed for various physicochemical parameters to assess the irrigation water quality using six indicators (sodium percentage (Na%), sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), magnesium hazard (MH), residual sodium carbonate (RSC), permeability index (PI), and potential salinity (PS)). The results show that the patterns for the average cation and anion concentrations were in decreasing orders of Na^＋ > Mg^2＋ > Ca^2＋ > K^＋and SO₄^2－ > HCO₃^－ > Cl^－ > NO₃^－ > CO₃^2－ > F^－, respectively. The values of Na%, MH, and PS show that most of the groundwater samples are not suitable for irrigation. The same conclusion is drawn from the USSL and Wilcox diagrams. PS values indicate that Cl^－and SO₄^2－have a great influence on irrigation water in Jiaokou Irrigation District. RSC and PI values indicate that more than half of groundwater samples are suitable for irrigation. The finding is beneficial for the policymakers for future water management schemes to achieve a sustainable development goal.

Keywords: groundwater chemistry, Guanzhong Basin, irrigation water quality evaluation, Jiaokou Irrigation District

Procedia PDF Downloads 207

Authors: A. Chateauneuf, M. Mostoufi, D. Vyncke

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Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is a technique that provides approximate solutions to a broad range of mathematical problems. A drawback of the method is its high computational cost, especially in a high-dimensional setting, such as estimating the Tail Value-at-Risk for large portfolios or pricing basket options and Asian options. For these types of problems, one can construct an upper bound in the convex order by replacing the copula by the comonotonic copula. This comonotonic upper bound can be computed very quickly, but it gives only a rough approximation. In this paper we introduce the Comonotonic Monte Carlo (CoMC) simulation, by using the comonotonic approximation as a control variate. The CoMC is of broad applicability and numerical results show a remarkable speed improvement. We illustrate the method for estimating Tail Value-at-Risk and pricing basket options and Asian options when the logreturns follow a Black-Scholes model or a variance gamma model.

Keywords: control variate Monte Carlo, comonotonicity, option pricing, scientific computing

Procedia PDF Downloads 511

Authors: Petra Buzkova, Milos Kopa

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Reliability of the credit default swap market had been questioned repeatedly during the EMU debt crisis. The article examines whether this development influenced sovereign EMU CDS prices in general. We regress the CDS market price on a model risk neutral CDS price obtained from an adopted reduced form valuation model in the 2009-2013 period. We look for a break point in the single-equation and multi-equation econometric models in order to show the changes in relations between CDS market and model prices. Our results differ according to the risk profile of a country. We find that in the case of riskier countries, the relationship between the market and model price changed when market participants started to question the ability of CDS contracts to protect their buyers. Specifically, it weakened after the change. In the case of less risky countries, the change happened earlier and the effect of a weakened relationship is not observed.

Keywords: chow stability test, credit default swap, debt crisis, reduced form valuation model, seemingly unrelated regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: O. Hinrichs, H. Franz, G. Reiter

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Electron guns have a key function in a series of thermal processes, like EB (electron beam) melting, evaporation or welding. These techniques need a high-intensity continuous electron beam that defocuses itself due to high space charge forces. A proper beam transport throughout the magnetic focusing system can be ensured by a space charge compensation via residual gas ions. The different pressure stages in the EB gun cause various degrees of compensation. A numerical model was installed to simulate realistic charge distributions within the beam by using CST-Particle Studio code. We will present current status of beam dynamic simulations. This contribution will focus on the creation of space charge ions and their influence on beam and gun components. Furthermore, the beam transport in the gun will be shown for different beam parameters. The electron source allows to produce beams with currents of 3 A to 15 A and energies of 40 keV to 45 keV.

Keywords: beam dynamic simulation, space charge compensation, thermionic electron source, EB melting, EB thermal processing

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Authors: M. Fakharian, M. I. Khodakarami

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In this paper, a new trend for improvement in semi-analytical method based on scale boundaries in order to solve the 2D elastodynamic problems is provided. In this regard, only the boundaries of the problem domain discretization are by specific sub-parametric elements. Mapping functions are uses as a class of higher-order Lagrange polynomials, special shape functions, Gauss-Lobatto -Legendre numerical integration, and the integral form of the weighted residual method, the matrix is diagonal coefficients in the equations of elastodynamic issues. Differences between study conducted and prior research in this paper is in geometry production procedure of the interpolation function and integration of the different is selected. Validity and accuracy of the present method are fully demonstrated through two benchmark problems which are successfully modeled using a few numbers of DOFs. The numerical results agree very well with the analytical solutions and the results from other numerical methods.

Keywords: 2D elastodynamic problems, lagrange polynomials, G-L-Lquadrature, decoupled SBFEM

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Authors: Xiaolian Jiang, Dongling Liu, Kun Liu

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Aims: To examine the prevalence of POST-TRAUMATIC STRESS DISORDER (PTSD) symptoms among Tibetan adolescents in heavily-hit disaster area three years after Yushu earthquake, and to explore the interactions of the psycho-social-genetic risk factors. Methods: This was a three-stage study. Firstly, demographic variables，PTSD Checklist-Civilian Version （PCL-C），the Internality、Powerful other、Chance Scale，（IPC），Coping Style Scale（CSS），and the Social Support Appraisal（SSA）were used to explore the psychosocial factors of PTSD symptoms among adolescent survivors. PCL-C was used to examine the PTSD symptoms among 4072 Tibetan adolescents，and the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Disorders（SCID）was used by psychiatrists to make the diagnosis precisely. Secondly，a case-control trial was used to explore the relationship between PTSD and gene polymorphisms. 287adolescents diagnosed with PTSD were recruited in study group, and 280 adolescents without PTSD in control group. Polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism technology（PCR-RFLP）was used to test gene polymorphisms. Thirdly，SPSS 22.0 was used to explore the interactions of the psycho-social-genetic risk factors of PTSD on the basis of the above results. Results and conclusions: 1．The prevalence of PTSD was 9.70%. 2．The predictive psychosocial factors of PTSD included earthquake exposure, support from others, imagine, abreact, tolerant, powerful others and family support. 3．Synergistic interactions between A1 gene of DRD2 TaqIA and the external locus of control, negative coping style, severe earthquake exposure were found. Antagonism interactions between A1 gene of DRD2 TaqIA and poor social support was found. Synergistic interactions between A1/A1 genotype and the external locus of control, negative coping style were found. Synergistic interactions between 12 gene of 5-HTTVNTR and the external locus of control, negative coping style, severe earthquake exposure were found. Synergistic interactions between 12/12 genotype and the external locus of control, negative coping style, severe earthquake exposure were also found.

Keywords: adolescents, earthquake, PTSD, risk factors

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Authors: Maryam Ghavam Sadri, Kimia Moiniafshari

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Objectives: Autism is a neuro-developmental disorder that has negative effects on verbal, mental and behavioral development. Studies have shown the role of a maternal dietary pattern before and during pregnancy. The relation of exerting of nutritional management programs in prevention of Autism has been approved. This review article has been made to investigate the role of nutritional management strategies before and during pregnancy in the prevention of Autism. Methods: This review study was accomplished by using the keywords related to the topic, 67 articles were found (2000-2015) and finally 20 article with criteria such as including maternal lifestyle, nutritional deficiencies and Autism prevention were selected. Results: Maternal dietary pattern and health before and during pregnancy have important roles in the incidence of Autism. Studies have suggested that high dietary fat intake and obesity can increase the risk of Autism in offspring. Maternal metabolic condition specially gestational diabetes (GDM) (p-value < 0.04) and folate deficiency (p-value = 0.04) is associated with risk of Autism. Studies have shown that folate intake in mothers with autistic children is less than mothers who have typically developing children (TYP) (p-value<0.01). As folate is an essential micronutrient for fetus mental development, consumption of average 600 mcg/day especially in P1 phase of pregnancy results in significant reduction in incidence of Autism (OR:1.53, 95%CI=0.42-0.92, p-value = 0.02). furthermore, essential fatty acid deficiency especially omega-3 fatty acid increases the rate of Autism and consumption of supplements and food sources of omega-3 can decrease the risk of Autism up to 34% (RR=1.53, 95%CI=1-2.32). Conclusion: regards to nutritional deficiency and maternal metabolic condition before and during pregnancy in prevalence of Autism, carrying out the appropriate nutritional strategies such as well-timed folate supplementation before pregnancy and healthy lifestyle adherence for prevention of metabolic syndrome (GDM) seems to help Autism prevention.

Keywords: autism, autism prevention, dietary inadequacy, maternal lifestyle

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Korosh Khorshidi

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Due to the increasing use of different materials, such as auxetic structures, it is necessary to investigate mechanical phenomena, such as vibration, in structures made of these types of materials. This paper examines the forced vibrations of a three-layer cylindrical shell containing inviscid fluid under shock load. All three layers are made of aluminum, and the central layer is made of a re-entrant honeycomb cell structure. Using high-order shear deformation theories (HSDT) and Hamilton’s principle, the governing equations of the system have been extracted and solved by the Galerkin weighted residual method. The outputs of the Abaqus finite element software are used to validate the results. The system is investigated with both simple and clamped support conditions. Finally, this study investigates the influence of the geometrical parameters of the shell and the auxetic structure, as well as the type, intensity, duration, and location of the load, and the effect of the fluid on the dynamic and time responses.

Keywords: force vibration, cylindrical shell, auxetic structure, inviscid fluid

Procedia PDF Downloads 41

Authors: Ghouas Halima, Haddou Boumedienne, Jean Peal Cancelier, Cristophe Gourdon, Ssaka Collines

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This work concerns the coacervate extraction of industrial dye, namely BezanylGreen - F2B, from an aqueous solution by nonionic surfactant “Lutensol AO7 and TX-114” (readily biodegradable). Binary water/surfactant and pseudo-binary (in the presence of solute) phase diagrams were plotted. The extraction results as a function of wt.% of the surfactant and temperature are expressed by the following four quantities: percentage of solute extracted, E%, residual concentrations of solute and surfactant in the dilute phase (Xs,w, and Xt,w, respectively) and volume fraction of coacervate at equilibrium (Фc). For each parameter, whose values are determined by a design of experiments, these results are subjected to empirical smoothing in three dimensions. The aim of this study is to find out the best compromise between E% and Фc. E% increases with surfactant concentration and temperature in optimal conditions, and the extraction extent of TA reaches 98 and 96 % using TX-114 and Lutensol AO7, respectively. The effect of sodium sulfate or cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) addition is also studied. Finally, the possibility of recycling the surfactant is proved.

Keywords: extraction, cloud point, non ionic surfactant, bezanyl green

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Spexin, expressed in central nervous system, has attracted much interest in feeding behavior, obesity, diabetes, energy metabolism and cardiovascular functions. Fetuin A is known as negative acute phase reactant synthesized in the liver. So far, it has become a major concern of many studies in numerous clinical states. The relationship between the concentrations of spexin as well as fetuin A and the risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) were also investigated. Eosinophils, suggested to be associated with the development of CVDs, are introduced as early indicators of cardiometabolic complications. Patients with elevated platelet count, associated with hypercoagulable state in the body, are also more liable to CVDs. In this study, the aim is to examine the profiles of spexin and fetuin A concomitant with the course of variations detected in eosinophil as well as platelet counts in morbid obese children. Thirty-four children with normal-body mass index (N-BMI) and fifty-one morbid obese (MO) children participated in the study. Written-informed consent forms were obtained prior to the study. Institutional ethics committee approved the study protocol. Age- and sex-adjusted BMI percentile tables prepared by World Health Organization were used to classify healthy and obese children. Mean age ± SEM of the children were 9.3 ± 0.6 years and 10.7 ± 0.5 years in N-BMI and MO groups, respectively. Anthropometric measurements of the children were taken. Body mass index values were calculated from weight and height values. Blood samples were obtained after an overnight fasting. Routine hematologic and biochemical tests were performed. Within this context, fasting blood glucose (FBG), insulin (INS), triglycerides (TRG), high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) concentrations were measured. Homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) values were calculated. Spexin and fetuin A levels were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Data were evaluated from the statistical point of view. Statistically significant differences were found between groups in terms of BMI, fat mass index, INS, HOMA-IR and HDL-C. In MO group, all parameters increased as HDL-C decreased. Elevated concentrations in MO group were detected in eosinophils (p<0.05) and platelets (p>0.05). Fetuin A levels decreased in MO group (p>0.05). However, decrease was statistically significant in spexin levels for this group (p<0.05). In conclusion, these results have suggested that increases in eosinophils and platelets exhibit behavior as cardiovascular risk factors. Decreased fetuin A behaved as a risk factor suitable to increased risk for cardiovascular problems associated with the severity of obesity. Along with increased eosinophils, increased platelets and decreased fetuin A, decreased spexin was the parameter, which reflects best its possible participation in the early development of CVD risk in MO children.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases , eosinophils , fetuin A , pediatric morbid obesity , platelets , spexin

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Som Pal Baliyan

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The purpose of this quantitative study was to analyze farm management skills in broiler poultryproducers in Botswana. The study adopted a descriptive and correlation research design. The population of the study was the poultry farm operators who had been in broiler poultry farming at least for two years. Based on the information from literature, a questionnaire was constructed for data collection on seven areas of farm management skills namely; planning skills, accounting and financial management skills, production management skills, product procurement and marketing skills, decision making skills, risk management skills, and specific technical skills. The validity and reliability of the questionnaire were accomplished by a panel of experts and by calculating the Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, respectively. Data were collected through a survey of 60 randomly sampled poultry farm operators in Botswana. Data were analyzed through descriptive statistical tools whereby the level of farm management skills were determined by calculating means and standard deviations of the management skills among the broiler producers. The level of farm management skills in broilers producers was discussed. All the seven farm management skills were ranked based on their calculated means. The specific technical skills and risk management skills were the highest and the lowest ranked farm management skills, respectively.Findings revealed that the broiler producers had skills above the average level only in specific technical skills whereas the skill levels in the remaining six farm management skills under study were found below the average level. This prevailing low level of farm management skills can be justified asthe cause of failure or poor performance of the broiler poultry farms in Botswana. Therefore, in order to improve the efficiency and productivityin broiler production in the country, it was recommended that the broiler poultry producers should be adequately trained in areas of planning skills, financial management skills, production management skills, product procurement and marketing skills, decision making skills and risk management skills.

Keywords: poultry production, broiler production, management skills, levels of skills

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Authors: Matthew Ocheleka Itodo, Ogo Agbo Ogo, Agnes Ogbene Abutu, Bawa Inalegwu

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Hyperlipidemia is characterised by elevated serum total cholesterol and low density and very low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and decreased high-density lipoprotein are the risk factor for coronary heart diseases. There are claims by traditional medicine practitioners in Nigeria that Moringa oleifera plants are used for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases, but it appears there is no scientific research and, publication or documented work to verify these claims. This study aimed to determine the effect of methanol root extracts of Moringa oleifera on Lipid profile, Atherogenic indices and 3 hydroxyl 3 methylglutaryl Coenzyme A reductase activity of poloxamer 407-induced hyperlipidemic rats. The animals were grouped into 8; Group 1: Normal control, Group 2: Hyperlipidemic control. Groups 2 to 8 were induced with Poloxamer 407 1000 mg/Kg body weight. However, group 3 were treated with standard drugs (atorvastatin). Group 4 was treated with crude extract, and groups 5 to 8 were treated with purified fractions from column chromatography. The preliminary antihyperlipidemic study showed Methanol root extract at 200 mg/kg body weight significantly (p≤0.05) decreased total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, triacylglyceride, 3 hydroxyls 3 methylglutaryl Coenzyme A reductase, and increase high-density lipoprotein of hyperlipidemic treated groups. Screening the extracts for the most potent anti-hyperlipidemic activity reveals that fraction 1 of Total Cholesterol and Fraction 3 of Triacylglyceride have the highest percentage reduction of 56% and 51%, respectively. The atherogenic risk factor of all induced treated rats shows a significant (p<0.05) decrease in levels of Castelli’s risk index II, atherogenic index of plasma and a significant (p<0.05) higher level of Castelli’s risk index I ratio. The study shows that the methanol extract of root possesses antihyperlipidemic effects and may explain why it has been found to be useful in the management of cardiovascular diseases by traditional medicine practitioners.

Keywords: hyperlipidemia, moringa oleifera, poloxamer 407, lipid profile

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Authors: Aid Asma, Dahdouh Nadjib, Amokrane Samira, Ladjali Samir, Nibou Djamel

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The present work has for main objective the elimination of the textile dye Maxilon Red (MR) by two processes, adsorption on activated clay followed by photocatalysis in presence of ZnO as a photocatalyst. The influence of the physical parameters like the initial pH, adsorbent dose of the activated clay, the MR concentration and temperature has been studied. The best adsorption yield occurs at neutral pH ~ 7 within 60 min with an uptake percentage of 97% for a concentration of 25 mg L⁻¹ and a dose of 0.5 g L⁻¹. The adsorption data were suitably fitted by the Langmuir model with a maximum capacity of 176 mg g⁻¹. The MR adsorption is well described by the pseudo second order kinetic. The second part of this work was dedicated to the photocatalytic degradation onto ZnO under solar irradiation of the residual MR concentration, remained after adsorption. The effect of ZnO dose and MR concentration has also been investigated. The parametric study showed that the elimination is very effective by this process, based essentially on the in situ generation of free radicals *OH which are non-selective and very reactive. The photodegradation process follows a first order kinetic model according to the Langmuir-Hinshelwood model.

Keywords: maxilon red, adsorption, photodegradation, ZnO, coupling

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Authors: Mario Tauzene Afonso Matangue, Ivan Andres Sanchez Ortiz

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The Metropolitan area of Maputo (Mozambique Capital City) is located in semi-arid zone (800 mm annual rainfall) with 1101170 million inhabitants. On the west side, there are the flatlands of Infulene where the Mulauze River flows towards to the Indian Ocean, receiving at this site, the storm water contaminated with sanitary sewage from Maputo, transported through a concrete open channel. In Infulene, local communities grow salads crops such as tomato, onion, garlic, lettuce, and cabbage, which are then commercialized and consumed in several markets in Maputo City. Lettuce is the most daily consumed salad crop in different meals, generally in fast-foods, breakfasts, lunches, and dinners. However, the risk of infection by several pathogens due to the consumption of lettuce, using the Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) tools, is still unknown since there are few studies or publications concerning to this matter in Mozambique. This work is aimed at determining the annual risk arising from the consumption of lettuce grown in Infulene valley, in Maputo, using QMRA tools. The exposure model was constructed upon the volume of contaminated water remaining in the lettuce leaves, the empirical relations between the number of pathogens and the indicator of microorganisms (E. coli), the consumption of lettuce (g) and reduction of pathogens (days). The reference pathogens were Vibrio cholerae, Cryptosporidium, norovirus, and Ascaris. The water quality samples (E. coli) were collected in the storm water channel from January 2016 to December 2018, comprising 65 samples, and the urban lettuce consumption data were collected through inquiry in Maputo Metropolis covering 350 persons. A non-parametric bootstrap was performed involving 10,000 iterations over the collected dataset, namely, water quality (E. coli) and lettuce consumption. The dose-response models were: Exponential for Cryptosporidium, Kummer Confluent hypergeomtric function (1F1) for Vibrio and Ascaris Gaussian hypergeometric function (2F1-(a,b;c;z) for norovirus. The annual infection risk estimates were performed using R 3.6.0 (CoreTeam) software by Monte Carlo (Latin hypercubes), a sampling technique involving 10,000 iterations. The annual infection risks values expressed by Median and the 95th percentile, per person per year (pppy) arising from the consumption of lettuce are as follows: Vibrio cholerae (1.00, 1.00), Cryptosporidium (3.91x10⁻³, 9.72x 10⁻³), nororvirus (5.22x10⁻¹, 9.99x10⁻¹) and Ascaris (2.59x10⁻¹, 9.65x10⁻¹). Thus, the consumption of the lettuce would result in greater risks than the tolerable levels ( < 10⁻³ pppy or 10⁻⁶ DALY) for all pathogens, and the Vibrio cholerae is the most virulent pathogens, according to the hit-single models followed by the Ascaris lumbricoides and norovirus. The sensitivity analysis carried out in this work pointed out that in the whole QMRA, the most important input variable was the reduction of pathogens (Spearman rank value was 0.69) between harvest and consumption followed by water quality (Spearman rank value was 0.69). The decision-makers (Mozambique Government) must strengthen the prevention measures related to pathogens reduction in lettuce (i.e., washing) and engage in wastewater treatment engineering.

Keywords: annual infections risk, lettuce, non-parametric bootstrapping, quantitative microbial risk assessment tools

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Authors: Elin Cahyaningsih, Dana Indra Sensuse, Wahyu Catur Wibowo, Sofiyanti Indriasari

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Bureaucracy reform program drives Indonesian government to change their management and supporting unit in order to enhance their organization performance. Information technology as one of supporting unit became one of strategic plan that organization tried to improve, because IT can automate and speed up process, reduce business process life cycle become more effective and efficient. Knowledge management system is a technology application for supporting knowledge management implementation in government which is requirement based on problem and potential functionality of each knowledge management process. Define knowledge management that suitable for each organization it is difficult, that why we should make the knowledge management system strategy as an alignment of knowledge management process in the organization. Knowledge management system is one of information system development in people perspective, because this system has high dependency in human interaction and participation. Strategic plan for developing knowledge management system can be determine using some of information system strategic methods. This research conducted to define type of strategic method of information system, stage of activity each method, the strategic method strength and weakness. The author use literature review methods for identify and classify strategic methods of information system for differentiate method type, categorize common activities, strength and weakness. Result of this research are determine and compare six strategic information system methods, there are Balanced Scorecard, Five Force Porter, SWOT analysis, Value Chain Analysis, Risk Analysis and Gap Analysis. Balanced Scorecard and Risk Analysis believe as common strategic method that usually used and have the highest excellence strength.

Keywords: knowledge management system, balanced scorecard, five force, risk analysis, gap analysis, value chain analysis, SWOT analysis

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Authors: Sıdıka Kaya, Gülay Sain Güven, Seda Karsavuran, Onur Toka

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This study is part of an ongoing research project supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 114K404, and participation to this conference was supported by Hacettepe University Scientific Research Coordination Unit under Project Number 10243. Evaluation of hospital readmissions is gaining importance in terms of quality and cost, and is becoming the target of national policies. In Turkey, the topic of hospital readmission is relatively new on agenda and very few studies have been conducted on this topic. The aim of this study was to determine 30-day readmission rates and risk factors for readmission. Whether readmission was planned, related to the prior admission and avoidable or not was also assessed. The study was designed as a ‘prospective cohort study.’ 472 patients hospitalized in internal medicine departments of a university hospital in Turkey between February 1, 2015 and April 30, 2015 were followed up. Analyses were conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics version 22.0 and SPSS Modeler 16.0. Average age of the patients was 56 and 56% of the patients were female. Among these patients 95 were readmitted. Overall readmission rate was calculated as 20% (95/472). However, only 31 readmissions were unplanned. Unplanned readmission rate was 6.5% (31/472). Out of 31 unplanned readmission, 24 was related to the prior admission. Only 6 related readmission was avoidable. To determine risk factors for readmission we constructed Chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID) decision tree algorithm. CHAID decision trees are nonparametric procedures that make no assumptions of the underlying data. This algorithm determines how independent variables best combine to predict a binary outcome based on ‘if-then’ logic by portioning each independent variable into mutually exclusive subsets based on homogeneity of the data. Independent variables we included in the analysis were: clinic of the department, occupied beds/total number of beds in the clinic at the time of discharge, age, gender, marital status, educational level, distance to residence (km), number of people living with the patient, any person to help his/her care at home after discharge (yes/no), regular source (physician) of care (yes/no), day of discharge, length of stay, ICU utilization (yes/no), total comorbidity score, means for each 3 dimensions of Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale (patient’s personal status, patient’s knowledge, and patient’s coping ability) and number of daycare admissions within 30 days of discharge. In the analysis, we included all 95 readmitted patients (46.12%), but only 111 (53.88%) non-readmitted patients, although we had 377 non-readmitted patients, to balance data. The risk factors for readmission were found as total comorbidity score, gender, patient’s coping ability, and patient’s knowledge. The strongest identifying factor for readmission was comorbidity score. If patients’ comorbidity score was higher than 1, the risk for readmission increased. The results of this study needs to be validated by other data–sets with more patients. However, we believe that this study will guide further studies of readmission and CHAID is a useful tool for identifying risk factors for readmission.

Keywords: decision tree, hospital, internal medicine, readmission

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Authors: R. Velvarska, A. Vrablik, M. Fiedlerova, R. Cerny

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Near-infrared spectrometry (NIR) was tested as a rapid and alternative tool for determination of biodiesel oxidation stability. A PetroOxy method is standardly used for the determination, but this method is hazardous due to the possibility of explosion and ignition of flammable fuels. The second disadvantage is time consuming. The near-infrared spectrometry served for the development of the calibration model which was composed of 133 real samples (calibration standards). The reference values of these standards were obtained by PetroOxy method. Many chemometric diagnostics were used for the development of the final NIR model with the aim to have accurate prediction of the oxidation stability. The final NIR model was validated by 30 validation standards. The repeatability was determined as well with the acceptable residual standard deviation (8.59 %). The NIR spectrometry has proved to be an accurate alternative method for the determination of biodiesel oxidation stability with advantages as the time and cost saving, non-destructive character of analyzing and the possibility of online monitoring in safe mode.

Keywords: biodiesel, fatty acid methyl ester, NIR, oxidation stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Mustafa M. Bob, Norhan Rahman, Abdalla Elamin, Saud Taher

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The objective of this study was to assess the suitability of Madinah city groundwater for irrigation purposes. Of the twenty three wells that were drilled in different locations in the city for the purposes of this study, twenty wells were sampled for water quality analyses. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) classification of irrigation water that is based on Sodium hazard (SAR) and salinity hazard was used for suitability assessment. In addition, the residual sodium carbonate (RSC) was calculated for all samples and also used for irrigation suitability assessment. Results showed that all groundwater samples are in the acceptable quality range for irrigation based on RSC values. When SAR and salinity hazard were assessed, results showed that while all groundwater samples (except one) fell in the acceptable range of SAR, they were either in the high or very high salinity zone which indicates that care should be taken regarding the type of soil and crops in the study area.

Keywords: irrigation suitability, TDS, salinity, SAR

Procedia PDF Downloads 370

Authors: Fouzi Harrou, Ying Sun, Sofiane Khadraoui

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Anomaly detection based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was studied intensively and largely applied to multivariate processes with highly cross-correlated process variables. Monitoring metrics such as the Hotelling's T2 and the Q statistics are usually used in PCA-based monitoring to elucidate the pattern variations in the principal and residual subspaces, respectively. However, these metrics are ill suited to detect small faults. In this paper, the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) based on the Q and T statistics, T2-EWMA and Q-EWMA, were developed for detecting faults in the process mean. The performance of the proposed methods was compared with that of the conventional PCA-based fault detection method using synthetic data. The results clearly show the benefit and the effectiveness of the proposed methods over the conventional PCA method, especially for detecting small faults in highly correlated multivariate data.

Keywords: data-driven method, process control, anomaly detection, dimensionality reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Sabina Garayeva

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To determine the significant risk factors for intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), we carried out a thorough study of the social status of the parents of children with IUGR. We observed 315 mothers who gave birth to children with (IUGR), of which 172 mothers with asymmetric type and 143 mothers with symmetric type of IUGR. Through a detailed survey was gathered detailed information about education of parents. The results show that the majority of mothers with IUGR had secondary education (44,8 ± 2,8%), and fathers - higher education (35,2 ± 2,7%). Whereas in the control group, the largest number of parents had higher education (mother 35,3 ± 4,4%, fathers 42,9 ± 4,5%). Number of mothers with secondary education with IUGR was significantly (p1 <0,01; χ2 = 22,67) differs from the number of mothers with physiological pregnancy with the same level of education. Meanwhile, in the group with a symmetrical embodiment of IUGR mothers with secondary formation of significantly greater 53,1 ± 4,2%, than the asymmetric embodiment IUGR 37,8 ± 3,7% (p2 <0,05; χ2 = 8 06). Among fathers with secondary education significant difference was noted in the symmetric version of IUGR 37,8 ± 4,1% more than in the control group (p1 <0,05), and among parents of children with asymmetric IUGR option prevailed fathers with higher education - 37 2 ± 3,7%. Thus, our results revealed a low educational level of the mother as a risk factor for IUGR, which further help to develop preventive and therapeutic measures to eliminate the severity of its consequences. As seen from the data presented, mothers of children with asymmetric IUGR had a school education and fathers - higher education, while in the symmetric type of both parents had secondary education. It is found that frequency of children, born with IUGR, of mothers - housewives and fathers, engage in physical labor, was high. Thus, the analysis conducted by the social status of the parents with IUGR revealed a low level of education and unemployed mothers as risk factors for this disease, which in the future will help to develop preventive and therapeutic measures to eliminate the severity of its.

Keywords: intrauterine growth restriction, education of mothers, education influence, IUGR

Procedia PDF Downloads 383

Authors: George Kurian, Hongmei Chi

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Digital evidence plays a critical role in most legal investigations. In many cases, thumbnail databases show important information in that investigation. The probability of having digital evidence retrieved from a computer or smart device has increased, even though the previous user removed data and deleted apps on those devices. Due to the increase in digital forensics, the ability to store residual information from various thumbnail applications has improved. This paper will focus on investigating thumbnail information from Windows 10. Thumbnail images of interest in forensic investigations may be intact even when the original pictures have been deleted. It is our research goal to recover useful information from thumbnails. In this research project, we use various forensics tools to collect left thumbnail information from deleted videos or pictures. We examine and describe the various thumbnail sources in Windows and propose a methodology for thumbnail collection and analysis from laptops or desktops. A machine learning algorithm is adopted to help speed up content from thumbnail pictures.

Keywords: digital forensic, forensic tools, soundness, thumbnail, machine learning, OCR

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Ali Kassem

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Background: In the last few years, factors such as insulin resistance (IR) and hepatic steatosis have been linked to progression of hepatic fibrosis.Patients with chronic liver disease, and cirrhosis in particular, are known to be prone to IR. However, chronic HCV (hepatitis C) infection may induce IR, regardless of the presence of liver cirrhosis. Our aims are to study insulin resistance (IR) assessed by HOMA-IR (Homeostatic Model Assessment Insulin Resistance) as a possible risk factor in disease progression in cirrhotic patients and to evaluate the role of IR in hepatic fibrosis progression. The correlations of HOMA-IR values to laboratory, virological and histopathological parameters of chronic HCV are also examined. Methods: The study included 50 people divided into 30 adult chronic hepatitis C patients diagnosed by PCR (polymerase chain reaction) within previous 6 months and 20 healthy controls. The functional and morphological status of the liver were evaluated by ultrasonography and laboratory investigations including liver function tests and by liver biopsy. Fasting blood glucose and fasting insulin levels were measured and body mass index and insulin resistance were calculated. Patients having HOMA-IR >2.5 were labeled as insulin resistant. Results: Chronic hepatitis C patients with IR showed significantly higher mean values of BMI (body mass index) and fasting insulin than those without IR (P < 0.000). Patients with IR were more likely to have steatosis (p = 0.006), higher necroinflammatory activity (p = 0.05). No significant differences were found between the two groups regarding hepatic fibrosis. Conclusion: HOMA-IR measurement could represent a novel marker to identify the cirrhotic patients at greater risk for the progression of liver disease. As IR is a potentially modifiable risk factor, these findings may have important prognostic and therapeutic implications. Assessment of IR by HOMA-IR and improving insulin sensitivity are recommended in patients with HCV and related chronic liver disease.

Keywords: hepatic fibrosis, hepatitis C virus infection, hepatic steatosis, insulin resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Ronald Mraz, Gary C. Kessler, Ethan Gold, John G. Cline

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The International Ice Patrol (IIP) continually monitors iceberg activity in the North Atlantic by direct observation using ships, aircraft, and satellite imagery. Daily reports detailing navigational boundaries of icebergs have significantly reduced the risk of iceberg contact. What is currently lacking is formatting this data for automatic transmission and display of iceberg navigational boundaries in commercial navigation equipment. This paper describes the methodology and implementation of a system to format iceberg limit information for dissemination through existing radio network communications. This information will then automatically display on commercial navigation equipment. Additionally, this information is reformatted for Google Earth rendering of iceberg track line limits. Having iceberg limit information automatically available in standard navigation equipment will help support full autonomous operation of sailing vessels.

Keywords: iceberg, iceberg risk, iceberg track lines, AIS messaging, international ice patrol, North American ice service, google earth, autonomous surface vessels

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Majid Mokhtari, Masoud Bahrami Alamdarlo, Babak Nazari, Hossein Zakerinya, Mehdi Salehi

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In this study, microstructure, macro, and microhardness of phases for three grades of cast iron rolls with modified chemical composition using a light microscope (OM) and electron microscopy (SEM) were investigated. The grades were chosen from Chodan Sazan Manufacturing Co. (CSROLL) productions for finishing stands of hot strip mills. The percentage of residual austenite was determined with a ferrite scope magnetic device. Thermal susceptibility testing was also measured. The results show the best oxidation resistance at high temperatures is graphitic high chromium white cast iron alloy. In order to evaluate the final properties of these grades in rolling lines, the results of the Pin on Disk abrasion test showed the superiority of the abrasive behavior of the white chromium graphite cast iron alloy grade sample at the same hardness compared to conventional alloy grades and the enhanced grades.

Keywords: hot roller, wear, behavior, microstructure

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: Xin Jie Li

Abstract:

Due to population agglomeration, huge scale, and complex activities, megacities have become risk centers. To resist the risks brought by development uncertainty, the construction of resilient cities has become a common strategic choice for megacities. As a key link in promoting the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity, optimizing the layout of national land space that focuses on ecology, production, and life and improving the rationality of spatial resource allocation are conducive to fundamentally promoting the resilience construction of megacities. Therefore, based on the perspective of territorial space governance, this article explores the potential risks faced by the territorial space of megacities and proposes possible paths for the resilience construction of megacities from four aspects: promoting the construction of a resilience system throughout the entire life cycle, constructing a disaster prevention and control system with ecological resilience, creating an industrial spatial pattern with production resilience, and enhancing community resilience to anchor the front line of risk response in megacities.

Keywords: mega cities, potential risks, resilient city construction, territorial and spatial governance

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: Renee Fabian, Jordan Davidson

Abstract:

Current research on non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) provides ample insights on best practices for caregivers and clinicians to address and reduce NSSI behavior among adolescents. However, the efficacy of evidenced-based NSSI interventions and their delivery from the perspective of adolescent patients does not receive significant attention, creating a gap between the efficacy of research-based NSSI interventions and adolescent perceptions of NSSI treatment and adolescent willingness to engage in NSSI interventions. To address the gap between practice and patient perspectives and inform more effective treatment outcomes, the current survey aims to identify major patient-reported adverse reactions to NSSI disclosures from caregivers, treating mental health clinicians, and medical professionals using a mixed methods survey of 2,500 people with a history of NSSI completed by editors at a consumer-facing health publication. Based on the analyzed results of the survey, a majority of adolescents with a history of NSSI found parents and caregivers ineffective at empathetically addressing NSSI, and a significant number of participants reported at least one treating mental health professional inadequately responded to NSSI behaviors, in addition to other findings of adverse reactions to NSSI disclosures that serve as a barrier to treatment. NSSI is a significant risk factor for future suicide attempts. Addressing patient-reported adverse reactions to NSSI disclosures in the adolescent population can remove barriers to the effectiveness of caregiver and clinician NSSI interventions and reduce the risk of NSSI-related harm and lower the risk of future suicide attempts or completions.

Keywords: adolescent self-injury, non-suicidal self-injury, patient perspectives, self-harm interventions

Procedia PDF Downloads 111