Search results for: non-linear modelling

Authors: Sagardeep Talukdar, Gautam Kumar Saharia, Riki Dutta, Sudipta Nandy

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In non-linear optics, the Fokas-Lenells equation (FLE) is a well-known integrable equation that describes how ultrashort pulses move across optical fiber. It admits localized wave solutions, just like any other integrable equation. We apply the Hirota bilinearization method to obtain the soliton solution of FLE. The proposed bilinearization makes use of an auxiliary function. We apply the method to FLE with a vanishing boundary condition, that is, to obtain bright soliton. We have obtained bright 1-soliton, 2-soliton solutions and propose the scheme for obtaining N-soliton solution. We have used an additional parameter which is responsible for the shift in the position of the soliton. Further analysis of the 2-soliton solution is done by asymptotic analysis. We discover that the suggested bilinearization approach, which makes use of the auxiliary function, greatly simplifies the process while still producing the desired outcome. We think that the current analysis will be helpful in understanding how FLE is used in nonlinear optics and other areas of physics.

Keywords: asymptotic analysis, fokas-lenells equation, hirota bilinearization method, soliton

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Authors: A. Didaoui, N. Benhalima, M. Elkeurti, A. Chouaih, F. Hamzaoui

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The monomer and dimer structures of the title molecule have been obtained from density functional theory (DFT) B3LYP method with 6-31G(d,p) as basis set calculations. The optimized geometrical parameters obtained by B3LYP/6-31G(d,p) method show good agreement with experimental X-ray data. The polarizability and first order hyperpolarizability of the title molecule were calculated and interpreted. The intermolecular N–H•••O hydrogen bonds are discussed in dimer structure of the molecule. The vibrational wave numbers and their assignments were examined theoretically using the Gaussian 03 set of quantum chemistry codes. The predicted frontier molecular orbital energies at B3LYP/6-31G(d,p) method set show that charge transfer occurs within the molecule. The frontier molecular orbital calculations clearly show the inverse relationship of HOMO–LUMO gap with the total static hyperpolarizability. The results also show that N-(2-Methylphenyl)-2-nitrobenzenesulfonamide molecule may have nonlinear optical (NLO) comportment with non-zero values.

Keywords: DFT, Gaussian 03, NLO, N-(2-Methylphenyl)-2-nitrobenzenesulfonamide, polarizability

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Authors: Reneiloe Seodigeng, Malwandla Hanabe, Haleden Chiririwa, Hilary Rutto, Tumisang Seodigeng

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Neutralisation of acid-mine drainage (AMD) using limestone is cost effective, and good results can be obtained. However, this process has its limitations; it cannot be used for highly acidic water which consists of Fe(III). When Fe(III) reacts with CaCO₃, it results in armoring. Armoring slows the reaction, and additional alkalinity can no longer be generated. Limestone is easily accessible, so this problem can be easily dealt with. Experiments were carried out to evaluate the effect of PVC pipe length on ferric and ferrous ions. It was found that the shorter the pipe length the more these dissolved metals precipitate. The effect of the pipe length on the hydrogen ions was also studied, and it was found that these two have an inverse relationship. Experimental data were further compared with the model prediction data to see if they behave in a similar fashion. The model was able to predict the behaviour of 1.5m and 2 m pipes in ferric and ferrous ion precipitation.

Keywords: acid mine drainage, neutralisation, limestone, mathematical modelling

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Authors: Ali Aghazadegan, Ali Shokri, Julia Mullarney

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River confluences are areas where there is a lot of mixing, which is often caused by the formation of shear layers and helical motions. The hydrodynamics of secondary circulation at river confluences with low flow discharge ratios and a 90° junction angle are investigated in this study. The analysis is based on Delft 3D modelling, which includes a three-dimensional time-averaged velocity field, turbulence, and water surface levels that have been validated using laboratory data. Confluence structure was characterized by shear layer, secondary circulation, and mixing at the junction and post confluence channel. This study analysis formation of the shear layer by generation of secondary circulations in variation discharge ratios. The values of streamwise, cross-wise, and vertical components are used to estimate the secondary circulation observed within and downstream of the tributary mouth. These variables are estimated for three horizontal planes at Z = [0.14; 0.07; 0.02] and for eight cross-sections at X = [-0.1; 0.00; 0.10; 0.2; 0.30; 0.4; 0.5; 0.6] within a range of 0.05 Y 0.30.

Keywords: river confluence, shear layer, secondary circulation, hydrodynamics

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Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Yeltsin Valero, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

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In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model is proposed to replicate simultaneously car-following and lane-changing behaviors in road networks. By combining two kinds of LSTM layers and three input designs of the neural network, six variants of the LSTM model have been created. These models were trained and tested on the NGSIM 101 dataset, and the results were evaluated in terms of longitudinal speed and lateral position, respectively. Then, we compared the LSTM model with a classical car-following model (the intelligent driving model (IDM)) in the part of speed decision. In addition, the LSTM model is compared with a model using classical neural networks. After the comparison, the LSTM model demonstrates higher accuracy than the physical model IDM in terms of car-following behavior and displays better performance with regard to both car-following and lane-changing behavior compared to the classical neural network model.

Keywords: traffic modeling, neural networks, LSTM, car-following, lane-change

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Authors: Mahdi Fakoor, Hannaneh Manafi Farid

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In order to predict the fracture behavior of cracked orthotropic materials under mixed-mode loading, well-known minimum strain energy density (SED) criterion is extended. The crack is subjected along the fibers at plane strain conditions. Despite the complicities to solve the nonlinear equations which are requirements of SED criterion, SED criterion for anisotropic materials is derived. In the present research, fracture limit curve of SED criterion is depicted by a numerical solution, hence the direction of crack growth is figured out by derived criterion, MSED. The validated MSED demonstrates the improvement in prediction of fracture behavior of the materials. Also, damaged factor that plays a crucial role in the fracture behavior of quasi-brittle materials is derived from this criterion and proved its dependency on mechanical properties and direction of crack growth.

Keywords: mixed-mode fracture, minimum strain energy density criterion, orthotropic materials, fracture limit curve, mode II critical stress intensity factor

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Authors: Sungyani Tripathy, Atul Desai

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Turbo machinery Frame Foundation is very important for power generation, gas, steam, hydro, geothermal and nuclear power plants. The Turbo machinery Foundation system was simulated in SAP: 2000 software and dynamic response of foundation was analysed. In this paper, the detailed study of turbo machinery foundation with different running speed has considered. The different revolution per minute considered in this study is 4000 rpm, 6000 rpm, 8000 rpm, 1000 rpm and 12000 rpm. The above analysis has been carried out considering Winkler spring soil model, solid finite element modelling and dynamic analysis of Turbo machinery foundations. The comparison of frequency and time periods at various mode shapes are addressed in this study. Current work investigates the effect of damping on the response spectra curve at the foundation top deck, considering the dynamic machine load. It has been found that turbo generator foundation with haunches remains more elastic during seismic action for different running speeds.

Keywords: turbo machinery, SAP: 2000, response spectra, running speeds

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Authors: Toushik Maiti, Saibal Chatterjee, Kamaljyoti Gogoi, Arijit Basuray

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Eastern Regional(ER) Grid and North Eastern Regional (NER) Grid are two major grids of Eastern Part of India. Both of the grid consists of voltage level 765kV, 400 kV, 220 kV and numerous buses at lower voltage range. Eastern Regional Grid and North Eastern Regional Grid are not only connected among themselves but are also connected to various other grids of India. ER and NER Grid having various HVDC lines or back to back systems which form the total network. The studied system comprises of 340 buses of different voltage levels and transmission lines running over a length of 32089 km. The validation of load flow has been done using IEEE STANDARD 30 bus system. The power flow simulation analysis has been performed after synchronizing both the Eastern Grid and North-Eastern Regional Grid of India using Power System Simulators for Engineering (PSS®E) Important inferences has been drawn from the study.

Keywords: HVDC, load flow, PSS®E, unsymmetrical and symmetrical faults

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Authors: Khelfaoui Rachid, Chekifi Tawfiq, Dennai Brahim, Maazouzi A. Hak

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A numerical and experimental studies of passive micro drops production have been presented. This paper focuses on the modeling of micro-oscillators systems which are composed by passive amplifier without moving part. The micro-system modeling is based on geometrical oscillators form. An asymmetric micro-oscillator design that is based on a bistable fluidic amplifier is proposed. The characteristic size of the channels is generally about 35 microns of depth. The numerical results indicate that the production and manipulation of microdrops are possible with passive device within a typical oscillators chamber of 2.25 mm diameter and 0.20 mm length when the Reynolds number is Re = 490. The novel micro drops method that is presented in this study provides a simple solution about the production of microdrops problems in micro system. We undertake an experimental step. The first part is based on the realisation of sample oscillator; the second part is consisted of visualization, production and manipulation of microdrops.

Keywords: modelling, miscible, micro drops, production, oscillator sample, capillary

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Authors: Ayaz Ahmad

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TOPIC: A study of the formation ,existness and stability of localised pulses in pde Ayaz Ahmad ,NITP, Abstract:In this paper we try to govern the evolution deterministic variable over space and time .We analysis the behaviour of the model which allows us to predict and understand the possible behaviour of the physical system .Bifurcation theory provides a basis to systematically investigate the models for invariant sets .Exploring the behaviour of PDE using bifurcation theory which provides many challenges both numerically and analytically. We use the derivation of a non linear partial differential equation which may be written in this form ∂u/∂t+c ∂u/∂x+∈(∂^3 u)/(∂x^3 )+¥u ∂u/∂x=0 We show that the temperature increased convection cells forms. Through our work we look for localised solution which are characterised by sudden burst of aeroidic spatio-temporal evolution. Key word: Gaussian pulses, Aeriodic ,spatio-temporal evolution ,convection cells, nonlinearoptics, Dr Ayaz ahmad Assistant Professor Department of Mathematics National institute of technology Patna ,Bihar,,India 800005 [email protected] +91994907553

Keywords: Gaussian pulses, aeriodic, spatio-temporal evolution, convection cells, nonlinear optics

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Authors: Henni Mansour Abdelwaheb

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This study discusses the design of a bounded position/force feedback controller developed to ensure position and force tracking for bilateral teleoperation arms operating with variable delay, and actuator saturation. Also, an adaptive robust Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network is used to estimate the environment torque. The parameters of the environment torque are then sent from the slave site to the master site as a non-power signal to avoid passivity problems. Moreover, a nonlinear function is applied to each controller term as a smooth saturation function, providing a bounded control signal and preserving the system’s actuators. Lastly, the Lyapunov approach demonstrates the global stability of the controlled system, and numerical experiment results further confirm the validity of the presented strategy.

Keywords: teleoperation manipulators system, time-varying delay, actuator saturation, adaptive robust rbf neural network approximation, uncertainties

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Authors: Natia Gigauri, Aleksandre Surmava

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According to observational data, experimental measurements, and numerical modeling, is assessed pollution of one of the industrial centers of Georgia, Rustavi city’s atmosphere with microaerosols. Monthly, daily and hourly changes of the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 in the city atmosphere are analyzed. It is accepted that PM2.5 concentrations are always lower than PM10 concentrations, but their change curve is the same. In addition, it has been noted that the maximum concentrations of particles in the atmosphere of Rustavi city will be reached at any part of the day, which is determined by the total impact of the traffic flow and industrial facilities. By numerical modeling has calculated the influence of background western light air and gentle and fresh breeze on the distribution of PM particles in the atmosphere. Calculations showed that background light air and gentle breeze lead to an increase the concentrations of microaerosols in the city's atmosphere, while fresh breeze contribute to the dispersion of dusty clouds. As a result, the level of dust in the city is decreasing, but the distribution area is expanding.

Keywords: pollution, modelling, PM2.5, PM10, experimental measurement

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Authors: Alberto Alcalá-Alvarez, Pablo Padilla-Longoria

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The present paper describes a framework for constructing mathematical networks encoding relevant musical information from a music score for structural analysis. These graphs englobe statistical information about music elements such as notes, chords, rhythms, intervals, etc., and the relations among them, and so become helpful in visualizing and understanding important stylistic features of a music fragment. In order to build such networks, musical data is parsed out of a digital symbolic music file. This data undergoes different analytical procedures from Graph Theory, such as measuring the centrality of nodes, community detection, and entropy calculation. The resulting networks reflect important structural characteristics of the fragment in question: predominant elements, connectivity between them, and complexity of the information contained in it. Music pieces in different styles are analyzed, and the results are contrasted with the traditional analysis outcome in order to show the consistency and potential utility of this method for music analysis.

Keywords: computational musicology, mathematical music modelling, music analysis, style classification

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Authors: A. Satty, H. Mwambi

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Much clinical trials data-based research are characterized by the unavoidable problem of dropout as a result of missing or erroneous values. This paper aims to review some of the various techniques to address the dropout problems in longitudinal clinical trials. The fundamental concepts of the patterns and mechanisms of dropout are discussed. This study presents five general techniques for handling dropout: (1) Deletion methods; (2) Imputation-based methods; (3) Data augmentation methods; (4) Likelihood-based methods; and (5) MNAR-based methods. Under each technique, several methods that are commonly used to deal with dropout are presented, including a review of the existing literature in which we examine the effectiveness of these methods in the analysis of incomplete data. Two application examples are presented to study the potential strengths or weaknesses of some of the methods under certain dropout mechanisms as well as to assess the sensitivity of the modelling assumptions.

Keywords: incomplete longitudinal clinical trials, missing at random (MAR), imputation, weighting methods, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Xiaohui Zhao, Shahan Mafuz

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Context-aware technologies provide system applications with the awareness of environmental conditions, customer behaviour, object movements, etc. Further, with such capability system applications can be smart to adapt intelligently their responses to the changing conditions. Concerning business operations, this promises businesses that their business processes can run more intelligently, adaptively and flexibly, and thereby either improve customer experience, enhance reliability of service delivery, or lower operational cost, to make the business more competitive and sustainable. Aiming at realizing such context-aware business process management, this paper firstly explores its potential benefit and then identifies some gaps between the current business process management support and the expected. In addition, some preliminary solutions are also discussed with context definition, rule-based process execution, run-time process evolution, etc. A framework is also presented to give a conceptual architecture of context-aware business process management system to guide system implementation.

Keywords: business process adaptation, business process evolution, business process modelling, and context awareness

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Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

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Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. However, it is difficult to find analytical solution of these complex non-linear equations. Hence, verification of the numerical model should be carried out against field data and numerical predictions. This paper presents the verification of developed finite element model applying for unsteady flow in the open channels. The results of a proposed model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29 km at both sites (15 km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400 km downstream from Sukkur barrage, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for predicting and issuing flood warnings about flood hazardous in advance.

Keywords: finite element method, Preissmann scheme, HEC-RAS, flood forecasting, Indus river

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Authors: Yusuke Kuramitsu, Tomoaki Hashimoto, Hirokazu Tahara

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The control problem of underactuated spacecrafts has attracted a considerable amount of interest. The control method for a spacecraft equipped with less than three control torques is useful when one of the three control torques had failed. On the other hand, the quantized control of systems is one of the important research topics in recent years. The random dither quantization method that transforms a given continuous signal to a discrete signal by adding artificial random noise to the continuous signal before quantization has also attracted a considerable amount of interest. The objective of this study is to develop the control method based on random dither quantization method for stabilizing the rotational motion of a rigid spacecraft with two control inputs. In this paper, the effectiveness of random dither quantization control method for the stabilization of rotational motion of spacecrafts with two torque inputs is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: spacecraft control, quantized control, nonlinear control, random dither method

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Authors: Emilia Hunt, Sally C. Reynolds, Fiona Coward, Fabio Parracho Silva, Philip Hopley

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Ecological niche modeling is widely used in conservation studies, but application to the extinct hominin species is a relatively new approach. Being able to understand what ecological niches were occupied by respective hominin species provides a new perspective into influences on evolutionary processes. Niche separation or overlap can tell us more about specific requirements of the species within the given timeframe. Many of the ancestral species lived through enormous climate changes: glacial and interglacial periods, changes in rainfall, leading to desertification or flooding of regions and displayed impressive levels of adaptation necessary for their survival. This paper reviews niche modeling methodologies and their application to hominin studies. Traditional conservation methods might not be directly applicable to extinct species and are not comparable to hominins. Hominin niche also includes aspects of technologies, use of fire and extended communication, which are not traditionally used in building conservation models. Future perspectives on how to improve niche modeling for extinct hominin species will be discussed.

Keywords: hominin niche, climate change, evolution, adaptation, ecological niche modelling

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Authors: Seul-Ki Park, Jong-Chun Park, Gyu-Mok Jeon, Dae-Kyung Ock, Seung-Gyu Jeong

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Rogue waves cause frequent accidents of ships and offshore structures, which can result in severe damage to the structures. The Rogue waves, which are also known as big waves, freak waves, extreme waves, monster waves, focused waves, giant waves and abnormal waves, are unexpected and suddenly appearing, and can have a breaking force to destroy the structure even though modern structures are designed to tolerate a breaking wave. In the present study, a series of focused waves are numerically reproduced by concentrating nonlinear multi-directional waves into a target point using a commercial CFD software, Star-CCM+. A flow analysis for investigating the physical characteristics of the focused waves is performed using the Star-CCM+, while it has several difficulties to examine the inner properties of the waves in existing potential theory and experiments. Additionally, the 6-DOF (Degree of Freedom) motion of a floating body interacting with the focused waves are simulated, and the dynamic response of the body are discussed.

Keywords: multidirectional waves, focused waves, rogue waves, wave-structure interaction, numerical wave tank, computational fluid dynamics

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Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

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Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

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Authors: Mohanad Talal Alfach

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This paper concerns the seismic behaviour of soil-piles-bridge reinforced by additional micropiles. The analysis carried out by three-dimensional finite element modelling using the FE software ABAQUS. The soil behaviour is assumed to be elastic with Rayleigh damping, while the micropiles are modeled as 3D elastic beam elements. The bridge deck slab was represented by a concentrated mass at the top of the pier column. The interaction between the added micropiles and the existing piles as well as the performance of the retrofitted soil-pile-superstructure system were investigated for different configurations of additional micropiles (number, position, inclination). Numerical simulation results show that additional micropiles constitute an efficient retrofitting solution. Analysis of results also shows that spacing between existing piles and retrofitting micropiles has little effect; while it is observed a substantial improvement (in case of weak piles/micropiles - soil interface) with reducing the inclination angle of retrofitting micropiles.

Keywords: retrofitting, seismic, finite element, micropiles, elastic

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Authors: Apolinar Picado, Ronald Solís, Rafael Gamero

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The thin-layer drying characteristics of instant coffee solution were investigated in a laboratory tunnel dryer. Drying experiments were carried out at three temperatures (80, 100 and 120 °C) and an air velocity of 1.2 m/s. Drying experimental data obtained are fitted to six (6) thin-layer drying models using the non-linear least squares regression analysis. The acceptability of the thin-layer drying model has been based on a value of the correlation coefficient that should be close to one, and low values for root mean square error (RMSE) and chi-square (x²). According to this evaluation, the most suitable model for describing drying process of thin-layer instant coffee solution is the Page model. Further, the effective moisture diffusivity and the activation energy were computed employing the drying experimental data. The effective moisture diffusivity values varied from 1.6133 × 10⁻⁹ to 1.6224 × 10⁻⁹ m²/s over the temperature range studied and the activation energy was estimated to be 162.62 J/mol.

Keywords: activation energy, diffusivity, instant coffee, thin-layer models

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Authors: Oluwayemisi O. Alaba, John O. Olaomi

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The 2013 Nigerian Demographic Health Survey (NDHS) data was used to investigate the determinants of family size in Nigeria using the geo-additive model. The fixed effect of categorical covariates were modelled using the diffuse prior, P-spline with second-order random walk for the nonlinear effect of continuous variable, spatial effects followed Markov random field priors while the exchangeable normal priors were used for the random effects of the community and household. The Negative Binomial distribution was used to handle overdispersion of the dependent variable. Inference was fully Bayesian approach. Results showed a declining effect of secondary and higher education of mother, Yoruba tribe, Christianity, family planning, mother giving birth by caesarean section and having a partner who has secondary education on family size. Big family size is positively associated with age at first birth, number of daughters in a household, being gainfully employed, married and living with partner, community and household effects.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, family size, geo-additive model, negative binomial

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Authors: T. Zitoun, M. Bouhadef

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When a partially or completely immersed solid moves in a liquid such as water, it undergoes a force called hydrodynamic drag. Reducing this force has always been the objective of hydrodynamic engineers to make water slide better on submerged bodies. This paper deals with the examination of the different terms composing the analytical solution of the flow over an obstacle embedded at the bottom of a hydraulic channel. We have chosen to use a linear method to study a two-dimensional flow over an obstacle, in order to understand the evolution of the drag. We set the following assumptions: incompressible inviscid fluid, irrotational flow, low obstacle height compared to the water height. Those assumptions allow overcoming the difficulties associated with modelling these waves. We will mathematically formulate the equations that allow the determination of the stream function, and then the free surface equation. A similar method is used to determine the exact analytical solution for an obstacle in the shape of a sinusoidal arch.

Keywords: analytical solution, free-surface wave, hydraulic channel, inviscid fluid

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Authors: Mohamed Elassaly

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The damage status of RC buildings is greatly influenced by the characteristics of the imposed ground motion. Peak Ground Acceleration and frequency contents are considered the main two factors that affect ground motion characteristics; hence, affecting the seismic response of RC structures and consequently their damage state. A detailed investigation on the combined effects of these two factors on damage assessment of RC buildings, is carried out. Twenty one earthquake records are analyzed and arranged into three groups, according to their frequency contents. These records are used in an investigation to define the expected damage state that would be attained by RC buildings, if subjected to varying ground motion characteristics. The damage assessment is conducted through examining drift ratios and damage indices of the overall structure and the significant structural components of RC building. Base and story shear of RC building model, are also investigated, for cases when the model is subjected to the chosen twenty one earthquake records. Nonlinear dynamic analyses are performed on a 2-dimensional model of a 12-story R.C. building.

Keywords: damage, frequency content, ground motion, PGA, RC building, seismic

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Authors: Cynthia Sau Chun Yip, Richard Fielding

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High meat and especially red meat intakes are significantly and positively associated with a multiple burden of diseases and also high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study investigated population meat intake patterns in Hong Kong. It quantified the burden of disease and GHG emission outcomes by modeling to adjust Hong Kong population meat intakes to recommended healthy levels. It compared age- and sex-specific population meat, fruit and vegetable intakes obtained from a population survey among adults aged 20 years and over in Hong Kong in 2005-2007, against intake recommendations suggested in the Modelling System to Inform the Revision of the Australian Guide to Healthy Eating (AGHE-2011-MS) technical document. This study found that meat and meat alternatives, especially red meat intakes among Hong Kong males aged 20+ years and over are significantly higher than recommended. Red meat intakes among females aged 50-69 years and other meat and alternatives intakes among aged 20-59 years are also higher than recommended. Taking the 2005-07 age- and sex-specific population meat intake as baselines, three counterfactual scenarios of adjusting Hong Kong adult population meat intakes to AGHE-2011-MS and Pre-2011 AGHE recommendations by the year 2030 were established. Consequent energy intake gaps were substituted with additional legume, fruit and vegetable intakes. To quantify the consequent GHG emission outcomes associated with Hong Kong meat intakes, Cradle-to-ready-to-eat lifecycle assessment emission outcome modelling was used. Comparative risk assessment of burden of disease model was used to quantify the health outcomes. This study found adjusting meat intakes to recommended levels could reduce Hong Kong GHG emission by 17%-44% when compared against baseline meat intake emissions, and prevent 2,519 to 7,012 premature deaths in males and 53 to 1,342 in females, as well as multiple burden of diseases when compared to the baseline meat intake scenario. Comparing lump sum meat intake reduction and outcome measures across the entire population, and using emission factors, and relative risks from individual studies in previous co-benefit studies, this study used age- and sex-specific input and output measures, emission factors and relative risks obtained from high quality meta-analysis and meta-review respectively, and has taken government dietary recommendations into account. Hence evaluations in this study are of better quality and more reflective of real life practices. Further to previous co-benefit studies, this study pinpointed age- and sex-specific population and meat-type-specific intervention points and leverages. When compared with similar studies in Australia, this study also showed that intervention points and leverages among populations in different geographic and cultural background could be different, and that globalization also globalizes meat consumption emission effects. More regional and cultural specific evaluations are recommended to promote more sustainable meat consumption and enhance global food security.

Keywords: burden of diseases, greenhouse gas emissions, Hong Kong diet, sustainable meat consumption

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Authors: M. Karimpour, N. Elkhoury, L. Hitihamillage, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami

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There is a necessity among rail transportation authorities for a superior understanding of the rail track degradation overtime and the factors influencing rail degradation. They need an accurate technique to identify the time when rail tracks fail or need maintenance. In turn, this will help to increase the level of safety and comfort of the passengers and the vehicles as well as improve the cost effectiveness of maintenance activities. An accurate model can play a key role in prediction of the long-term behaviour of railroad tracks. An accurate model can decrease the cost of maintenance. In this research, the rail track degradation is predicted using an autoregressive moving average with exogenous input (ARMAX). An ARMAX has been implemented on Melbourne tram data to estimate the values for the tram track degradation. Gauge values and rail usage in Million Gross Tone (MGT) are the main parameters used in the model. The developed model can accurately predict the future status of the tram tracks.

Keywords: ARMAX, dynamic systems, MGT, prediction, rail degradation

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Authors: Hong-Ming Chen

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This work considers the resolution of the Hull and White interest rate model with the jump process. A deterministic process is adopted to model the random behavior of interest rate variation as deterministic perturbations, which is depending on the time t. The Brownian motion and jumps uncertainty are denoted as the integral functions piecewise constant function w(t) and point function θ(t). It shows that the interest rate function and the yield function of the Hull and White interest rate model with jump process can be obtained by solving a nonlinear semi-infinite programming problem. A relaxed cutting plane algorithm is then proposed for solving the resulting optimization problem. The method is calibrated for the U.S. treasury securities at 3-month data and is used to analyze several effects on interest rate prices, including interest rate variability, and the negative correlation between stock returns and interest rates. The numerical results illustrate that our approach essentially generates the yield functions with minimal fitting errors and small oscillation.

Keywords: optimization, interest rate model, jump process, deterministic

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Authors: Preeti Aghalayam, Jay Shah

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Underground coal gasification (UCG) is the in-situ gasification of unmineable coals to produce syngas. In UCG, gasifying agents are injected into the coal seam, and a reactive cavity is formed due to coal consumption. The cavity formed is typically hemispherical, and this report consists of the MATLAB model of the UCG cavity to predict the composition of the output gases. There are seven radial and two time-variant ODEs. A MATLAB solver (ode15s) is used to solve the radial ODEs from the above equations. Two for-loops are implemented in the model, i.e., one for time variations and another for radial variation. In the time loop, the radial odes are solved using the MATLAB solver. The radial loop is nested inside the time loop, and the density odes are numerically solved using the Euler method. The model is validated by comparing it with the literature results of laboratory-scale experiments. The model predicts the radial and time variation of the product gases inside the cavity.

Keywords: gasification agent, MATLAB model, syngas, underground coal gasification (UCG)

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Authors: Sidi Yang, Haiyi Zhang

Abstract:

Twitter is a microblogging platform, where millions of users daily share their attitudes, views, and opinions. Using a probabilistic Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model to discern the most popular topics in the Twitter data is an effective way to analyze a large set of tweets to find a set of topics in a computationally efficient manner. Sentiment analysis provides an effective method to show the emotions and sentiments found in each tweet and an efficient way to summarize the results in a manner that is clearly understood. The primary goal of this paper is to explore text mining, extract and analyze useful information from unstructured text using two approaches: LDA topic modelling and sentiment analysis by examining Twitter plain text data in English. These two methods allow people to dig data more effectively and efficiently. LDA topic model and sentiment analysis can also be applied to provide insight views in business and scientific fields.

Keywords: text mining, Twitter, topic model, sentiment analysis

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