Search results for: earthquake hazard mitigation
385 Improved Computational Efficiency of Machine Learning Algorithm Based on Evaluation Metrics to Control the Spread of Coronavirus in the UK
Authors: Swathi Ganesan, Nalinda Somasiri, Rebecca Jeyavadhanam, Gayathri Karthick
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The COVID-19 crisis presents a substantial and critical hazard to worldwide health. Since the occurrence of the disease in late January 2020 in the UK, the number of infected people confirmed to acquire the illness has increased tremendously across the country, and the number of individuals affected is undoubtedly considerably high. The purpose of this research is to figure out a predictive machine learning archetypal that could forecast COVID-19 cases within the UK. This study concentrates on the statistical data collected from 31st January 2020 to 31st March 2021 in the United Kingdom. Information on total COVID cases registered, new cases encountered on a daily basis, total death registered, and patients’ death per day due to Coronavirus is collected from World Health Organisation (WHO). Data preprocessing is carried out to identify any missing values, outliers, or anomalies in the dataset. The data is split into 8:2 ratio for training and testing purposes to forecast future new COVID cases. Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests, and linear regression algorithms are chosen to study the model performance in the prediction of new COVID-19 cases. From the evaluation metrics such as r-squared value and mean squared error, the statistical performance of the model in predicting the new COVID cases is evaluated. Random Forest outperformed the other two Machine Learning algorithms with a training accuracy of 99.47% and testing accuracy of 98.26% when n=30. The mean square error obtained for Random Forest is 4.05e11, which is lesser compared to the other predictive models used for this study. From the experimental analysis Random Forest algorithm can perform more effectively and efficiently in predicting the new COVID cases, which could help the health sector to take relevant control measures for the spread of the virus.Keywords: COVID-19, machine learning, supervised learning, unsupervised learning, linear regression, support vector machine, random forest
Procedia PDF Downloads 121384 Modeling of Masonry In-Filled R/C Frame to Evaluate Seismic Performance of Existing Building
Authors: Tarek M. Alguhane, Ayman H. Khalil, M. N. Fayed, Ayman M. Ismail
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This paper deals with different modeling aspects of masonry infill: no infill model, Layered shell infill model, and strut infill model. These models consider the complicated behavior of the in-filled plane frames under lateral load similar to an earthquake load. Three strut infill models are used: NBCC (2005) strut infill model, ASCE/SEI 41-06 strut infill model and proposed strut infill model based on modification to Canadian, NBCC (2005) strut infill model. Pushover and modal analyses of a masonry infill concrete frame with a single storey and an existing 5-storey RC building have been carried out by using different models for masonry infill. The corresponding hinge status, the value of base shear at target displacement as well as their dynamic characteristics have been determined and compared. A validation of the structural numerical models for the existing 5-storey RC building has been achieved by comparing the experimentally measured and the analytically estimated natural frequencies and their mode shapes. This study shows that ASCE/SEI 41-06 equation underestimates the values for the equivalent properties of the diagonal strut while Canadian, NBCC (2005) equation gives realistic values for the equivalent properties. The results indicate that both ASCE/SEI 41-06 and Canadian, NBCC (2005) equations for strut infill model give over estimated values for dynamic characteristic of the building. Proposed modification to Canadian, NBCC (2005) equation shows that the fundamental dynamic characteristic values of the building are nearly similar to the corresponding values using layered shell elements as well as measured field results.Keywords: masonry infill, framed structures, RC buildings, non-structural elements
Procedia PDF Downloads 277383 The Integrated Urban Regeneration Implemented through the Reuse, Enhancement and Transformation of Disused Industrial Areas
Authors: Sara Piccirillo
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The integrated urban regeneration represents a great opportunity to deliver correct management of the territory if implemented through the reuse, enhancement, and transformation of abandoned industrial areas, according to sustainability strategies. In environmental terms, recycling abandoned sites by demolishing buildings and regenerating the urban areas means promoting adaptation to climate change and a new sensitivity towards city living. The strategic vision of 'metabolism' can be implemented through diverse actions made on urban settlements, and planning certainly plays a primary role. Planning an urban transformation in a sustainable way is more than auspicable. It is necessary to introduce innovative urban soil management actions to mitigate the environmental costs associated with current land use and to promote projects for the recovery/renaturalization of urban or non-agricultural soils. However, by freeing up these through systematic demolition of the disused heritage, new questions open up in terms of environmental costs deriving from the inevitable impacts caused by the disposal of waste. The mitigation of these impacts involves serious reflection on the recycling supply chains aimed at the production and reuse of secondary raw materials in the construction industry. The recent developments in R&D of recycling materials are gradually becoming more and more pivotal in consideration of environmental issues such as increasing difficulties in exploiting natural quarries or strict regulations for the management and disposal of waste sites. Therefore, this contribution, set as a critical essay, presents the reconstruction outputs of the regulatory background on the material recycling chain up to the 'end of waste' stage, both at a national and regional scale. This extended approach to this urban design practice goes beyond the cultural dimension that has relegated urban regeneration to pure design only. It redefines its processes through an interdisciplinary system that affects human, environmental and financial resources.Keywords: waste management, C&D waste, recycling, urban trasformation
Procedia PDF Downloads 213382 Application of Gamma Frailty Model in Survival of Liver Cirrhosis Patients
Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi
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Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.Keywords: frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution
Procedia PDF Downloads 261381 Influence of Geologic and Geotechnical Dataset Resolution on Regional Liquefaction Assessment of the Lower Wairau Plains
Authors: Omer Altaf, Liam Wotherspoon, Rolando Orense
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The Wairau Plains are located in the northeast of the South Island of New Zealand, with alluvial deposits of fine-grained silts and sands combined with low-lying topography suggesting the presence of liquefiable deposits over significant portions of the region. Liquefaction manifestations were observed in past earthquakes, including the 1848 Marlborough and 1855 Wairarapa earthquakes, and more recently during the 2013 Lake Grassmere and 2016 Kaikōura earthquakes. Therefore, a good understanding of the deposits that may be susceptible to liquefaction is important for land use planning in the region and to allow developers and asset owners to appropriately address their risk. For this purpose, multiple approaches have been employed to develop regional-scale maps showing the liquefaction vulnerability categories for the region. After applying semi-qualitative criteria linked to geologic age and deposit type, the higher resolution surface mapping of geomorphologic characteristics encompassing the Wairau River and the Opaoa River was used for screening. A detailed basin geologic model developed for groundwater modelling was analysed to provide a higher level of resolution than the surface-geology based classification. This is used to identify the thickness of near-surface gravel deposits, providing an improved understanding of the presence or lack of potentially non-liquefiable crust deposits. This paper describes the methodology adopted for this project and focuses on the influence of geomorphic characteristics and analysis of the detailed geologic basin model on the liquefaction classification of the Lower Wairau Plains.Keywords: liquefaction, earthquake, cone penetration test, mapping, liquefaction-induced damage
Procedia PDF Downloads 176380 Creating Complementary Bi-Modal Learning Environments: An Exploratory Study Combining Online and Classroom Techniques
Authors: Justin P. Pool, Haruyo Yoshida
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This research focuses on the effects of creating an English as a foreign language curriculum that combines online learning and classroom teaching in a complementary manner. Through pre- and post-test results, teacher observation, and learner reflection, it will be shown that learners can benefit from online programs focusing on receptive skills if combined with a communicative classroom environment that encourages learners to develop their productive skills. Much research has lamented the fact that many modern mobile assisted language learning apps do not take advantage of the affordances of modern technology by focusing only on receptive skills rather than inviting learners to interact with one another and develop communities of practice. This research takes into account the realities of the state of such apps and focuses on how to best create a curriculum that complements apps which focus on receptive skills. The research involved 15 adult learners working for a business in Japan simultaneously engaging in 1) a commercial online English language learning application that focused on reading, listening, grammar, and vocabulary and 2) a 15-week class focused on communicative language teaching, presentation skills, and mitigation of error aversion tendencies. Participants of the study experienced large gains on a standardized test, increased motivation and willingness to communicate, and asserted that they felt more confident regarding English communication. Moreover, learners continued to study independently at higher rates after the study than they had before the onset of the program. This paper will include the details of the program, reveal the improvement in test scores, share learner reflections, and critically view current evaluation models for mobile assisted language learning applications.Keywords: adult learners, communicative language teaching, mobile assisted language learning, motivation
Procedia PDF Downloads 135379 Molecular Dynamic Simulation of CO2 Absorption into Mixed Aqueous Solutions MDEA/PZ
Authors: N. Harun, E. E. Masiren, W. H. W. Ibrahim, F. Adam
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Amine absorption process is an approach for mitigation of CO2 from flue gas that produces from power plant. This process is the most common system used in chemical and oil industries for gas purification to remove acid gases. On the challenges of this process is high energy requirement for solvent regeneration to release CO2. In the past few years, mixed alkanolamines have received increasing attention. In most cases, the mixtures contain N-methyldiethanolamine (MDEA) as the base amine with the addition of one or two more reactive amines such as PZ. The reason for the application of such blend amine is to take advantage of high reaction rate of CO2 with the activator combined with the advantages of the low heat of regeneration of MDEA. Several experimental and simulation studies have been undertaken to understand this process using blend MDEA/PZ solvent. Despite those studies, the mechanism of CO2 absorption into the aqueous MDEA is not well understood and available knowledge within the open literature is limited. The aim of this study is to investigate the intermolecular interaction of the blend MDEA/PZ using Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulation. MD simulation was run under condition 313K and 1 atm using NVE ensemble at 200ps and NVT ensemble at 1ns. The results were interpreted in term of Radial Distribution Function (RDF) analysis through two system of interest i.e binary and tertiary. The binary system will explain the interaction between amine and water molecule while tertiary system used to determine the interaction between the amine and CO2 molecule. For the binary system, it was observed that the –OH group of MDEA is more attracted to water molecule compared to –NH group of MDEA. The –OH group of MDEA can form the hydrogen bond with water that will assist the solubility of MDEA in water. The intermolecular interaction probability of –OH and –NH group of MDEA with CO2 in blended MDEA/PZ is higher than using single MDEA. This findings show that PZ molecule act as an activator to promote the intermolecular interaction between MDEA and CO2.Thus, blend of MDEA with PZ is expecting to increase the absorption rate of CO2 and reduce the heat regeneration requirement.Keywords: amine absorption process, blend MDEA/PZ, CO2 capture, molecular dynamic simulation, radial distribution function
Procedia PDF Downloads 295378 Accessing Livestock Depredation by the Himalayan Wolf in Neshyang Valley, Manag, Nepal
Authors: Tenzing Lama, Ganga Ram Regmi, Thakur Silwal, Rinzin Punjok Lama
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Livestock depredation by a wolf and associated financial loss suffered by herders is perhaps the most important issue leading to human-wolf conflict. As a result, recolonized wolves remained one of the most persecuted large carnivores in Nepal Himalaya suffering high mortality due to retaliatory killings by herdsmen. Reducing such depredation are crucial in gaining herder’s support in conservation program to ensure the long-term survival of such carnivores. In February 2018, a study was conducted through questionnaire survey with 33 herders from different settlements in Neshyang valley of Manang district to assess the status of human-wolf conflict in terms of livestock loss and herder’s attitude. A total of 36 livestock were lost to the wolf with an average loss of 1.09 ± 0.48 (SE) livestock heads per herder between March 2017 to February 2018 which represents 1.5% of the total holdings. The estimated financial value of livestock loss was equivalent to US$ 25,428 with an average of US$ 770 per herder. Majority of the herders (80%) expressed a negative attitude towards the wolf, but only a few herders (6.06%) suggested removal of the wolf from the valley. The incidences of livestock loss differed significantly with highest in day time and seasonally highest in winter, when herders freely leaves their livestock (except goat/sheep) in the pastures. Wolf showed positive selectivity to the horse (EI=0.59), yak (EI=0.24) and cattle (EI=0.14) but strong avoidance to goat/sheep (EI=-1). This study suggests that livestock depredation by wolf could be minimized through improved livestock husbandry practices and implication of mitigation measures (e.g. coral improvement) and immediate relief to the victims. Conservation education and awareness programs to enhance herders knowledge about the ecological importance of wolf, provision of relief scheme and law enforcement.Keywords: canis lupus canco, conservation education, human wildlife conflict, compensation schemes
Procedia PDF Downloads 16377 Bioclimatic Niches of Endangered Garcinia indica Species on the Western Ghats: Predicting Habitat Suitability under Current and Future Climate
Authors: Malay K. Pramanik
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In recent years, climate change has become a major threat and has been widely documented in the geographic distribution of many plant species. However, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of ecologically vulnerable medicinal species remain largely unknown. The identification of a suitable habitat for a species under climate change scenario is a significant step towards the mitigation of biodiversity decline. The study, therefore, aims to predict the impact of current, and future climatic scenarios on the distribution of the threatened Garcinia indica across the northern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. The future projections were made for the year 2050 and 2070 with all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) using 56 species occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic predictors from the BCC-CSM1.1 model of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) 5th assessment. The bioclimatic variables were minimised to a smaller number of variables after a multicollinearity test, and their contributions were assessed using jackknife test. The AUC value of 0.956 ± 0.023 indicates that the model performs with excellent accuracy. The study identified that temperature seasonality (39.5 ± 3.1%), isothermality (19.2 ± 1.6%), and annual precipitation (12.7 ± 1.7%) would be the major influencing variables in the current and future distribution. The model predicted 10.5% (19318.7 sq. km) of the study area as moderately to very highly suitable, while 82.60% (151904 sq. km) of the study area was identified as ‘unsuitable’ or ‘very low suitable’. Our predictions of climate change impact on habitat suitability suggest that there will be a drastic reduction in the suitability by 5.29% and 5.69% under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Finally, the results signify that the model might be an effective tool for biodiversity protection, ecosystem management, and species re-habitation planning under future climate change scenarios.Keywords: Garcinia Indica, maximum entropy modelling, climate change, MaxEnt, Western Ghats, medicinal plants
Procedia PDF Downloads 157376 Application of Electrochromic Glazing for Reducing Peak Cooling Loads
Authors: Ranojoy Dutta
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HVAC equipment capacity has a direct impact on occupant comfort and energy consumption of a building. Glazing gains, especially in buildings with high window area, can be a significant contributor to the total peak load on the HVAC system, leading to over-sized systems that mostly operate at poor part load efficiency. In addition, radiant temperature, which largely drives occupant comfort in glazed perimeter zones, is often not effectively controlled despite the HVAC being designed to meet the air temperature set-point. This is due to short wave solar radiation transmitted through windows, that is not sensed by the thermostat until much later when the thermal mass in the room releases the absorbed solar heat to the indoor air. The implication of this phenomenon is increased cooling energy despite poor occupant comfort. EC glazing can significantly eliminate direct solar transmission through windows, reducing both the space cooling loads for the building and improving comfort for occupants near glazing. This paper will review the exact mechanism of how EC glazing would reduce the peak load under design day conditions, leading to reduced cooling capacity vs regular high-performance glazing. Since glazing heat transfer only affects the sensible load, system sizing will be evaluated both with and without the availability of a DOAS to isolate the downsizing potential of the primary cooling equipment when outdoor air is conditioned separately. Given the dynamic nature of glazing gains due to the sun’s movement, effective peak load mitigation with EC requires an automated control system that can predict solar movement and radiation levels so that the right tint state with the appropriate SHGC is utilized at any given time for a given façade orientation. Such an automated EC product will be evaluated for a prototype commercial office model situated in four distinct climate zones.Keywords: electrochromic glazing, peak sizing, thermal comfort, glazing load
Procedia PDF Downloads 130375 The Role of Cultural Expectations in Emotion Regulation among Nepali Adolescents
Authors: Martha Berg, Megan Ramaiya, Andi Schmidt, Susanna Sharma, Brandon Kohrt
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Nepali adolescents report tension and negative emotion due to perceived expectations of both academic and social achievement. These societal goals, which are internalized through early-life socialization, drive the development of self-regulatory processes such as emotion regulation. Emotion dysregulation is linked with adverse psychological outcomes such as depression, self-harm, and suicide, which are public health concerns for organizations working with Nepali adolescents. This study examined the relation among socialization, internalized cultural goals, and emotion regulation to inform interventions for reducing depression and suicide in this population. Participants included 102 students in grades 7 through 9 in a post-earthquake school setting in rural Kathmandu valley. All participants completed a tablet-based battery of quantitative measures, comprising transculturally adapted assessments of emotion regulation, depression, and self-harm/suicide ideation and behavior. Qualitative measures included two focus groups and semi-structured interviews with 22 students and 3 parents. A notable proportion of the sample reported depression symptoms in the past 2 weeks (68%), lifetime self-harm ideation (28%), and lifetime suicide attempts (13%). Students who lived with their nuclear family reported lower levels of difficulty than those who lived with more distant relatives (z=2.16, p=.03), which suggests a link between family environment and adolescent emotion regulation, potentially mediated by socialization and internalization of cultural goals. These findings call for further research into the aspects of nuclear versus extended family environments that shape the development of emotion regulation.Keywords: adolescent mental health, emotion regulation, Nepal, socialization
Procedia PDF Downloads 272374 Comparison of Allowable Stress Method and Time History Response Analysis for Seismic Design of Buildings
Authors: Sayuri Inoue, Naohiro Nakamura, Tsubasa Hamada
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The seismic design method of buildings is classified into two types: static design and dynamic design. The static design is a design method that exerts static force as seismic force and is a relatively simple design method created based on the experience of seismic motion in the past 100 years. At present, static design is used for most of the Japanese buildings. Dynamic design mainly refers to the time history response analysis. It is a comparatively difficult design method that input the earthquake motion assumed in the building model and examine the response. Currently, it is only used for skyscrapers and specific buildings. In the present design standard in Japan, it is good to use either the design method of the static design and the dynamic design in the medium and high-rise buildings. However, when actually designing middle and high-rise buildings by two kinds of design methods, the relatively simple static design method satisfies the criteria, but in the case of a little difficult dynamic design method, the criterion isn't often satisfied. This is because the dynamic design method was built with the intention of designing super high-rise buildings. In short, higher safety is required as compared with general buildings, and criteria become stricter. The authors consider applying the dynamic design method to general buildings designed by the static design method so far. The reason is that application of the dynamic design method is reasonable for buildings that are out of the conventional standard structural form such as emphasizing design. For the purpose, it is important to compare the design results when the criteria of both design methods are arranged side by side. In this study, we performed time history response analysis to medium-rise buildings that were actually designed with allowable stress method. Quantitative comparison between static design and dynamic design was conducted, and characteristics of both design methods were examined.Keywords: buildings, seismic design, allowable stress design, time history response analysis, Japanese seismic code
Procedia PDF Downloads 155373 Application of Homer Optimization to Investigate the Prospects of Hybrid Renewable Energy System in Rural Area: Case of Rwanda
Authors: Emile Niringiyimana, LI Ji Qing, Giovanni Dushimimana, Virginie Umwere
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The development and utilization of renewable energy (RE) can not only effectively reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but also became a solution to electricity shortage mitigation in rural areas. Hybrid RE systems are promising ways to provide consistent and continuous power for isolated areas. This work investigated the prospect and cost effectiveness of hybrid system complementarity between a 100kW solar PV system and a small-scale 200kW hydropower station in the South of Rwanda. In order to establish the optimal size of a RE system with adequate sizing of system components, electricity demand, solar radiation, hydrology, climate data are utilized as system input. The average daily solar radiation in Rukarara is 5.6 kWh/m2 and average wind speed is 3.5 m/s. The ideal integrated RE system, according to Homer optimization, consists of 91.21kW PV, 146kW hydropower, 12 x 24V li-ion batteries with a 20kW converter. The method of enhancing such hybrid systems control, sizing and choice of components is to reduce the Net present cost (NPC) of the system, unmet load, the cost of energy and reduction of CO2. The power consumption varies according to dominant source of energy in the system by controlling the energy compensation depending on the generation capacity of each power source. The initial investment of the RE system is $977,689.25, and its operation and maintenance expenses is $142,769.39 over a 25-year period. Although the investment is very high, the targeted profits in future are huge, taking into consideration of high investment in rural electrification structure implementations, tied with an increase of electricity cost and the 5 years payback period. The study outcomes suggest that the standalone hybrid PV-Hydropower system is feasible with zero pollution in Rukara community.Keywords: HOMER optimization, hybrid power system, renewable energy, NPC and solar pv systems
Procedia PDF Downloads 61372 Ecological and Health Risk Assessment of the Heavy Metal Contaminant in Surface Soils around Effurun Market
Authors: A. O. Ogunkeyede, D. Amuchi, A. A. Adebayo
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Heavy metal contaminations in soil have received great attention. Anthropogenic activities such as vehicular emission, industrial activities and constructions have resulted in elevated concentration of heavy metals in the surface soils. The metal particles can be free from the surface soil when they are disturbed and re-entrained in air, which necessitated the need to investigate surface soil at market environment where adults and children are present on daily basis. This study assesses concentration of heavy metal pollution, ecological and health risk factors in surface soil at Effurun market. 8 samples were collected at household material (EMH), fish (EMFs), fish and commodities (EMF-C), Abattoir (EMA 1 & 2), fruit sections (EMF 1 & 2) and lastly main road (EMMR). The samples were digested and analyzed in triplicate for contents of Lead (Pb), Nickel (Ni), Cadmium (Cd) and Copper (Cu). The mean concentration of the Pb mg/kg (112.27 ± 1.12) and Cu mg/kg (156.14 ± 1.10) were highest in the abattoir section (EMA 1). The mean concentrations of the heavy metal were then used to calculate the ecological and health risk for people within the market. Pb contamination at EMMR, EMF 2, EMFs were moderately while Pb shows considerable contamination at EMH, EMA 1, EMA 2 and EMF-C sections of the Effurun market. The ecological risk factor varies between low to moderate pollution for Pb and EMA 1 has the highest potential ecological risk that falls within moderate pollution. The hazard quotient results show that dermal exposure pathway is the possible means of heavy metal exposure to the traders while ingestion is the least sources of exposure to adult. The ingestion suggested that children around the EMA 1 have the highest possible exposure to children due to hand-to-mouth and object-to-mouth behaviour. The results further show that adults at the EMA1 will have the highest exposure to Pb due to inhalation during burning of cow with tyre that contained Pb and Cu. The carcinogenic risk values of most sections were higher than acceptable values, while Ni at EMMR, EMF 1 & 2, EMFs and EMF-C sections that were below the acceptable values. The cancer risk for inhalation exposure pathway for Pb (1.01E+17) shows a significant level of contamination than all the other sections of the market. It suggested that the people working at the Abattoir were very prone to cancer risk.Keywords: carcinogenic, ecological, heavy metal, risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 144371 Causal Estimation for the Left-Truncation Adjusted Time-Varying Covariates under the Semiparametric Transformation Models of a Survival Time
Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang
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In biomedical researches and randomized clinical trials, the most commonly interested outcomes are time-to-event so-called survival data. The importance of robust models in this context is to compare the effect of randomly controlled experimental groups that have a sense of causality. Causal estimation is the scientific concept of comparing the pragmatic effect of treatments conditional to the given covariates rather than assessing the simple association of response and predictors. Hence, the causal effect based semiparametric transformation model was proposed to estimate the effect of treatment with the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Due to its high flexibility and robustness, the semiparametric transformation model which shall be applied in this paper has been given much more attention for estimation of a causal effect in modeling left-truncated and right censored survival data. Despite its wide applications and popularity in estimating unknown parameters, the maximum likelihood estimation technique is quite complex and burdensome in estimating unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function in the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Thus, to ease the complexity we proposed the modified estimating equations. After intuitive estimation procedures, the consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators were derived and the characteristics of the estimators in the finite sample performance of the proposed model were illustrated via simulation studies and Stanford heart transplant real data example. To sum up the study, the bias of covariates was adjusted via estimating the density function for truncation variable which was also incorporated in the model as a covariate in order to relax the independence assumption of failure time and truncation time. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm was described for the estimation of iterative unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function. In addition, the causal effect was derived by the ratio of the cumulative hazard function of active and passive experiments after adjusting for bias raised in the model due to the truncation variable.Keywords: causal estimation, EM algorithm, semiparametric transformation models, time-to-event outcomes, time-varying covariate
Procedia PDF Downloads 125370 Utilizing Fiber-Based Modeling to Explore the Presence of a Soft Storey in Masonry-Infilled Reinforced Concrete Structures
Authors: Akram Khelaifia, Salah Guettala, Nesreddine Djafar Henni, Rachid Chebili
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Recent seismic events have underscored the significant influence of masonry infill walls on the resilience of structures. The irregular positioning of these walls exacerbates their adverse effects, resulting in substantial material and human losses. Research and post-earthquake evaluations emphasize the necessity of considering infill walls in both the design and assessment phases. This study delves into the presence of soft stories in reinforced concrete structures with infill walls. Employing an approximate method relying on pushover analysis results, fiber-section-based macro-modeling is utilized to simulate the behavior of infill walls. The findings shed light on the presence of soft first stories, revealing a notable 240% enhancement in resistance for weak column—strong beam-designed frames due to infill walls. Conversely, the effect is more moderate at 38% for strong column—weak beam-designed frames. Interestingly, the uniform distribution of infill walls throughout the structure's height does not influence soft-story emergence in the same seismic zone, irrespective of column-beam strength. In regions with low seismic intensity, infill walls dissipate energy, resulting in consistent seismic behavior regardless of column configuration. Despite column strength, structures with open-ground stories remain vulnerable to soft first-story emergence, underscoring the crucial role of infill walls in reinforced concrete structural design.Keywords: masonry infill walls, soft Storey, pushover analysis, fiber section, macro-modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 67369 Forestalling Heritage: Photography inside the Narrative of Catastrophe
Authors: Claudia Pimentel, Nuno Resende, Maria Fatima Lambert
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In the present time, catastrophe seems to be inevitable, and individuals are permanently overwhelmed with challenges that test one’s ability to cope with reality. Undoubtedly, photography surpassed the barrier of efficient communication in a world filled with omnifarious narratives. It wandered an outing shorter than words and younger than other sciences but became, nowadays, imperative in the context of several fields of knowledge, namely Heritage studies. Heritage and photography thus emerge as unapologetically related concepts, a fact that makes them equally relevant in today's society. Political, economic, social and humanitarian challenges alter the way in which the relationship with the past is managed and the way in which identities and ideas for the future are constructed. Ruins and destruction have become part of aesthetics discourse since the 18th century and are an area of interest when we discuss cultural heritage preservation. The image proves to be a unique way of revealing the event details when we refer to a catastrophic situation, whether it be anthropic, social or climatic. Like poetry, which has a challenging connection with silence, image is capable of creating spaces of sound and silence, and it is often these “pseudo-voids” that capture the attention of the spectator, of the one who sees/observes/contacts with the photography. The way we look at the catastrophe, how we describe it, and the images we keep in our memory will determine the record/capture/news of the event. We, thus, have a visual record, a document that will contribute to the creation of individual and collective identity, in a jigsaw puzzle of memories, pseudo memories and post memories. Based on photographic records in the Portuguese press, we intend to rethink the earthquake at Angra do Heroísmo – Azores in 1980, exploring the viewer´s perspective on the catastrophe’s iconography under the perspective of aesthetics and genealogy of the catastrophe.Keywords: photography, aesthetics, catastrophe, Portugal
Procedia PDF Downloads 76368 The Effects of Extreme Precipitation Events on Ecosystem Services
Authors: Szu-Hua Wang, Yi-Wen Chen
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Urban ecosystems are complex coupled human-environment systems. They contain abundant natural resources for producing natural assets and attract urban assets to consume natural resources for urban development. Urban ecosystems provide several ecosystem services, including provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services, and supporting services. Rapid global climate change makes urban ecosystems and their ecosystem services encountering various natural disasters. Lots of natural disasters have occurred around the world under the constant changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the past two decades. In Taiwan, hydrological disasters have been paid more attention due to the potential high sensitivity of Taiwan’s cities to climate change, and it impacts. However, climate change not only causes extreme weather events directly but also affects the interactions among human, ecosystem services and their dynamic feedback processes indirectly. Therefore, this study adopts a systematic method, solar energy synthesis, based on the concept of the eco-energy analysis. The Taipei area, the most densely populated area in Taiwan, is selected as the study area. The changes of ecosystem services between 2015 and Typhoon Soudelor have been compared in order to investigate the impacts of extreme precipitation events on ecosystem services. The results show that the forest areas are the largest contributions of energy to ecosystem services in the Taipei area generally. Different soil textures of different subsystem have various upper limits of water contents or substances. The major contribution of ecosystem services of the study area is natural hazard regulation provided by the surface water resources areas. During the period of Typhoon Soudelor, the freshwater supply in the forest areas had become the main contribution. Erosion control services were the main ecosystem service affected by Typhoon Soudelor. The second and third main ecosystem services were hydrologic regulation and food supply. Due to the interactions among ecosystem services, fresh water supply, water purification, and waste treatment had been affected severely.Keywords: ecosystem, extreme precipitation events, ecosystem services, solar energy synthesis
Procedia PDF Downloads 148367 Deflagration and Detonation Simulation in Hydrogen-Air Mixtures
Authors: Belyayev P. E., Makeyeva I. R., Mastyuk D. A., Pigasov E. E.
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Previously, the phrase ”hydrogen safety” was often used in terms of NPP safety. Due to the rise of interest to “green” and, particularly, hydrogen power engineering, the problem of hydrogen safety at industrial facilities has become ever more urgent. In Russia, the industrial production of hydrogen is meant to be performed by placing a chemical engineering plant near NPP, which supplies the plant with the necessary energy. In this approach, the production of hydrogen involves a wide range of combustible gases, such as methane, carbon monoxide, and hydrogen itself. Considering probable incidents, sudden combustible gas outburst into open space with further ignition is less dangerous by itself than ignition of the combustible mixture in the presence of many pipelines, reactor vessels, and any kind of fitting frames. Even ignition of 2100 cubic meters of the hydrogen-air mixture in open space gives velocity and pressure that are much lesser than velocity and pressure in Chapman-Jouguet condition and do not exceed 80 m/s and 6 kPa accordingly. However, the space blockage, the significant change of channel diameter on the way of flame propagation, and the presence of gas suspension lead to significant deflagration acceleration and to its transition into detonation or quasi-detonation. At the same time, process parameters acquired from the experiments at specific experimental facilities are not general, and their application to different facilities can only have a conventional and qualitative character. Yet, conducting deflagration and detonation experimental investigation for each specific industrial facility project in order to determine safe infrastructure unit placement does not seem feasible due to its high cost and hazard, while the conduction of numerical experiments is significantly cheaper and safer. Hence, the development of a numerical method that allows the description of reacting flows in domains with complex geometry seems promising. The base for this method is the modification of Kuropatenko method for calculating shock waves recently developed by authors, which allows using it in Eulerian coordinates. The current work contains the results of the development process. In addition, the comparison of numerical simulation results and experimental series with flame propagation in shock tubes with orifice plates is presented.Keywords: CFD, reacting flow, DDT, gas explosion
Procedia PDF Downloads 90366 Evaluating Seismic Earth Pressure Effects on Building Lateral Stability: Sensitivity to Retention Height Differences and Sloped Site Conditions
Authors: Rod Davis, Sara Saminfar
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Earthquakes can induce dynamic earth pressures on retaining walls, which are in addition to the static earth pressures. This raises questions about how to effectively combine the seismic lateral earth pressure with other loads on buildings, including static lateral earth pressure. When basement walls retain soil with differing exterior grades on opposite sides, the seismic increment of active earth pressure should be considered. Additionally, buildings situated on sloped sites with stepped retention may experience unique dynamic effects due to soil-structure interactions, potentially amplifying the lateral pressures exerted on the retaining walls and influencing the building's response during seismic events. To account for the dynamic effects of the retained soil on the building's responses, it is essential to interconnect the building structure with the surrounding soil to facilitate their interaction as the embedded structure and the surrounding soil move together during an earthquake. Consequently, a finite element model of the building is developed, with the rigid retaining walls and restrained to the floor diaphragms. This paper aims to explore the dynamic effects of retained soil on the lateral stability of buildings and the sensitivity of the building's responses to differences in the retained heights on opposite sides of the building basement. Furthermore, the results are compared with those from a sloped site to evaluate the impact of stepped retention on dynamic soil pressure. These findings will help establish a minimum threshold for differences in retained heights on opposite sides of a building that necessitates the inclusion of dynamic soil pressure in the building's lateral stability analysis.Keywords: dynamic earth pressures, soil-structure interaction, stepped retention, building retention
Procedia PDF Downloads 9365 Integrated Risk Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change for the Coastal Infrastructure
Authors: Sergey V. Vinogradov
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Coastal communities are presently facing increased vulnerabilities due to rising sea levels and shifts in global climate patterns, a trend expected to escalate in the long run. To address the needs of government entities, the public sector, and private enterprises, there is an urgent need to thoroughly investigate, assess, and manage the present and projected risks associated with coastal flooding, including storm surges, sea level rise, and nuisance flooding. In response to these challenges, a practical approach to evaluating storm surge inundation risks has been developed. This methodology offers an integrated assessment of potential flood risk in targeted coastal areas. The physical modeling framework involves simulating synthetic storms and utilizing hydrodynamic models that align with projected future climate and ocean conditions. Both publicly available and site-specific data form the basis for a risk assessment methodology designed to translate inundation model outputs into statistically significant projections of expected financial and operational consequences. This integrated approach produces measurable indicators of impacts stemming from floods, encompassing economic and other dimensions. By establishing connections between the frequency of modeled flood events and their consequences across a spectrum of potential future climate conditions, our methodology generates probabilistic risk assessments. These assessments not only account for future uncertainty but also yield comparable metrics, such as expected annual losses for each inundation event. These metrics furnish stakeholders with a dependable dataset to guide strategic planning and inform investments in mitigation. Importantly, the model's adaptability ensures its relevance across diverse coastal environments, even in instances where site-specific data for analysis may be limited.Keywords: climate, coastal, surge, risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 56364 Evaluation of Different Liquid Scintillation Counting Methods for 222Rn Determination in Waters
Authors: Jovana Nikolov, Natasa Todorovic, Ivana Stojkovic
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Monitoring of 222Rn in drinking or surface waters, as well as in groundwater has been performed in connection with geological, hydrogeological and hydrological surveys and health hazard studies. Liquid scintillation counting (LSC) is often preferred analytical method for 222Rn measurements in waters because it allows multiple-sample automatic analysis. LSC method implies mixing of water samples with organic scintillation cocktail, which triggers radon diffusion from the aqueous into organic phase for which it has a much greater affinity, eliminating possibility of radon emanation in that manner. Two direct LSC methods that assume different sample composition have been presented, optimized and evaluated in this study. One-phase method assumed direct mixing of 10 ml sample with 10 ml of emulsifying cocktail (Ultima Gold AB scintillation cocktail is used). Two-phase method involved usage of water-immiscible cocktails (in this study High Efficiency Mineral Oil Scintillator, Opti-Fluor O and Ultima Gold F are used). Calibration samples were prepared with aqueous 226Ra standard in glass 20 ml vials and counted on ultra-low background spectrometer Quantulus 1220TM equipped with PSA (Pulse Shape Analysis) circuit which discriminates alpha/beta spectra. Since calibration procedure is carried out with 226Ra standard, which has both alpha and beta progenies, it is clear that PSA discriminator has vital importance in order to provide reliable and precise spectra separation. Consequentially, calibration procedure was done through investigation of PSA discriminator level influence on 222Rn efficiency detection, using 226Ra calibration standard in wide range of activity concentrations. Evaluation of presented methods was based on obtained efficiency detections and achieved Minimal Detectable Activity (MDA). Comparison of presented methods, accuracy and precision as well as different scintillation cocktail’s performance was considered from results of measurements of 226Ra spiked water samples with known activity and environmental samples.Keywords: 222Rn in water, Quantulus1220TM, scintillation cocktail, PSA parameter
Procedia PDF Downloads 201363 River Network Delineation from Sentinel 1 Synthetic Aperture Radar Data
Authors: Christopher B. Obida, George A. Blackburn, James D. Whyatt, Kirk T. Semple
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In many regions of the world, especially in developing countries, river network data are outdated or completely absent, yet such information is critical for supporting important functions such as flood mitigation efforts, land use and transportation planning, and the management of water resources. In this study, a method was developed for delineating river networks using Sentinel 1 imagery. Unsupervised classification was applied to multi-temporal Sentinel 1 data to discriminate water bodies from other land covers then the outputs were combined to generate a single persistent water bodies product. A thinning algorithm was then used to delineate river centre lines, which were converted into vector features and built into a topologically structured geometric network. The complex river system of the Niger Delta was used to compare the performance of the Sentinel-based method against alternative freely available water body products from United States Geological Survey, European Space Agency and OpenStreetMap and a river network derived from a Shuttle Rader Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model. From both raster-based and vector-based accuracy assessments, it was found that the Sentinel-based river network products were superior to the comparator data sets by a substantial margin. The geometric river network that was constructed permitted a flow routing analysis which is important for a variety of environmental management and planning applications. The extracted network will potentially be applied for modelling dispersion of hydrocarbon pollutants in Ogoniland, a part of the Niger Delta. The approach developed in this study holds considerable potential for generating up to date, detailed river network data for the many countries where such data are deficient.Keywords: Sentinel 1, image processing, river delineation, large scale mapping, data comparison, geometric network
Procedia PDF Downloads 139362 Numerical Modelling of Shear Zone and Its Implications on Slope Instability at Letšeng Diamond Open Pit Mine, Lesotho
Authors: M. Ntšolo, D. Kalumba, N. Lefu, G. Letlatsa
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Rock mass damage due to shear tectonic activity has been investigated largely in geoscience where fluid transport is of major interest. However, little has been studied on the effect of shear zones on rock mass behavior and its impact on stability of rock slopes. At Letšeng Diamonds open pit mine in Lesotho, the shear zone composed of sheared kimberlite material, calcite and altered basalt is forming part of the haul ramp into the main pit cut 3. The alarming rate at which the shear zone is deteriorating has triggered concerns about both local and global stability of pit the walls. This study presents the numerical modelling of the open pit slope affected by shear zone at Letšeng Diamond Mine (LDM). Analysis of the slope involved development of the slope model by using a two-dimensional finite element code RS2. Interfaces between shear zone and host rock were represented by special joint elements incorporated in the finite element code. The analysis of structural geological mapping data provided a good platform to understand the joint network. Major joints including shear zone were incorporated into the model for simulation. This approach proved successful by demonstrating that continuum modelling can be used to evaluate evolution of stresses, strain, plastic yielding and failure mechanisms that are consistent with field observations. Structural control due to geological shear zone structure proved to be important in its location, size and orientation. Furthermore, the model analyzed slope deformation and sliding possibility along shear zone interfaces. This type of approach can predict shear zone deformation and failure mechanism, hence mitigation strategies can be deployed for safety of human lives and property within mine pits.Keywords: numerical modeling, open pit mine, shear zone, slope stability
Procedia PDF Downloads 299361 Role of Community Based Forest Management to Address Climate Change Problem: A Case of Nepalese Community Forestry
Authors: Bikram Jung Kunwar
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Forests have central roles in climate change. The conservation of forests sequestrates the carbon from the atmosphere and also regulates the carbon cycle. However, knowingly and unknowingly the world’s forests were deforested and degraded annually at the rate of 0.18% and emitted the carbon to the atmosphere. The IPCC reports claimed that the deforestation and forest degradation accounts 1/5th of total carbon emission, which is second position after fossil fuels. Since 1.6 billion people depend on varying degree on forests for their daily livelihood, not all deforestation are undesirable. Therefore, to conserve the forests and find the livelihood opportunities for forest surrounding people is prerequisites to address the climate change problems especially in developing countries, and also a growing concern to the forestry sector researchers, planners and policy makers. The study examines the role of community based forest management in carbon mitigation and adaptation taking the examples of Nepal’s community forestry program. In the program, the government hands over a part of national forests to the local communities with sole forest management authorities. However, the government itself retained the ownership rights of forestland. Local communities organized through a local institution called Community Forest User Group (CFUG) managed the forests. They also formed an operational plan with technical prescriptions and a constitution with forest management rules and regulations. The implementation results showed that the CFUGs are not only found effective to organize the local people and construct a local institution to forest conservation and management activities, but also they are able to collect a community fund from the sale of forest products and carried out various community development activities. These development activities have decisive roles to improve the livelihood of forest surrounding people and eventually to address the climate change problems.Keywords: climate change, community forestry, local institution, Nepal
Procedia PDF Downloads 301360 Uncertainty and Multifunctionality as Bridging Concepts from Socio-Ecological Resilience to Infrastructure Finance in Water Resource Decision Making
Authors: Anita Lazurko, Laszlo Pinter, Jeremy Richardson
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Uncertain climate projections, multiple possible development futures, and a financing gap create challenges for water infrastructure decision making. In contrast to conventional predict-plan-act methods, an emerging decision paradigm that enables social-ecological resilience supports decisions that are appropriate for uncertainty and leverage social, ecological, and economic multifunctionality. Concurrently, water infrastructure project finance plays a powerful role in sustainable infrastructure development but remains disconnected from discourse in socio-ecological resilience. At the time of research, a project to transfer water from Lesotho to Botswana through South Africa in the Orange-Senqu River Basin was at the pre-feasibility stage. This case was analysed through documents and interviews to investigate how uncertainty and multifunctionality are conceptualised and considered in decisions for the resilience of water infrastructure and to explore bridging concepts that might allow project finance to better enable socio-ecological resilience. Interviewees conceptualised uncertainty as risk, ambiguity and ignorance, and multifunctionality as politically-motivated shared benefits. Numerous efforts to adopt emerging decision methods that consider these terms were in use but required compromises to accommodate the persistent, conventional decision paradigm, though a range of future opportunities was identified. Bridging these findings to finance revealed opportunities to consider a more comprehensive scope of risk, to leverage risk mitigation measures, to diffuse risks and benefits over space, time and to diverse actor groups, and to clarify roles to achieve multiple objectives for resilience. In addition to insights into how multiple decision paradigms interact in real-world decision contexts, the research highlights untapped potential at the juncture between socio-ecological resilience and project finance.Keywords: socio-ecological resilience, finance, multifunctionality, uncertainty
Procedia PDF Downloads 126359 Application of Sentinel-2 Data to Evaluate the Role of Mangrove Conservation and Restoration on Aboveground Biomass
Authors: Raheleh Farzanmanesh, Christopher J. Weston
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Mangroves are forest ecosystems located in the inter-tidal regions of tropical and subtropical coastlines that provide many valuable economic and ecological benefits for millions of people, such as preventing coastal erosion, providing breeding, and feeding grounds, improving water quality, and supporting the well-being of local communities. In addition, mangroves capture and store high amounts of carbon in biomass and soils that play an important role in combating climate change. The decline in mangrove area has prompted government and private sector interest in mangrove conservation and restoration projects to achieve multiple Sustainable Development Goals, from reducing poverty to improving life on land. Mangrove aboveground biomass plays an essential role in the global carbon cycle, climate change mitigation and adaptation by reducing CO2 emissions. However, little information is available about the effectiveness of mangrove sustainable management on mangrove change area and aboveground biomass (AGB). Here, we proposed a method for mapping, modeling, and assessing mangrove area and AGB in two Global Environment Facility (GEF) blue forests projects based on Sentinel-2 Level 1C imagery during their conservation lifetime. The SVR regression model was used to estimate AGB in Tahiry Honko project in Madagascar and the Abu Dhabi Blue Carbon Demonstration Project (Abu Dhabi Emirates. The results showed that mangrove forests and AGB declined in the Tahiry Honko project, while in the Abu Dhabi project increased after the conservation initiative was established. The results provide important information on the impact of mangrove conservation activities and contribute to the development of remote sensing applications for mapping and assessing mangrove forests in blue carbon initiatives.Keywords: blue carbon, mangrove forest, REDD+, aboveground biomass, Sentinel-2
Procedia PDF Downloads 72358 Development of a Large-Scale Cyclic Shear Testing Machine Under Constant Normal Stiffness
Authors: S. M. Mahdi Niktabara, K. Seshagiri Raob, Amit Kumar Shrivastavac, Jiří Ščučkaa
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The presence of the discontinuity in the form of joints is one of the most significant factors causing instability in the rock mass. On the other hand, dynamic loads, including earthquake and blasting induce cyclic shear loads along the joints in rock masses; therefore, failure of rock mass exacerbates along the joints due to changing shear resistance. Joints are under constant normal load (CNL) and constant normal stiffness (CNS) conditions. Normal stiffness increases on the joints with increasing depth, and it can affect shear resistance. For correct assessment of joint shear resistance under varying normal stiffness and number of cycles, advanced laboratory shear machine is essential for the shear test. Conventional direct shear equipment has limitations such as boundary conditions, working under monotonic movements only, or cyclic shear loads with constant frequency and amplitude of shear loads. Hence, a large-scale servo-controlled direct shear testing machine was designed and fabricated to perform shear test under the both CNL and CNS conditions with varying normal stiffness at different frequencies and amplitudes of shear loads. In this study, laboratory cyclic shear tests were conducted on non-planar joints under varying normal stiffness. In addition, the effects of different frequencies and amplitudes of shear loads were investigated. The test results indicate that shear resistance increases with increasing normal stiffness at the first cycle, but the influence of normal stiffness significantly decreases with an increase in the number of shear cycles. The frequency of shear load influences on shear resistance, i.e. shear resistance increases with increasing frequency. However, at low shear amplitude the number of cycles does not affect shear resistance on the joints, but it decreases with higher amplitude.Keywords: cyclic shear load, frequency of load, amplitude of displacement, normal stiffness
Procedia PDF Downloads 151357 Toxic Metal and Radiological Risk Assessment of Soil, Water and Vegetables around a Gold Mine Turned Residential Area in Mokuro Area of Ile-Ife, Osun State Nigeria: An Implications for Human Health
Authors: Grace O. Akinlade, Danjuma D. Maza, Oluwakemi O. Olawolu, Delight O. Babalola, John A. O. Oyekunle, Joshua O. Ojo
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The Mokuro area of Ile-Ife, South West Nigeria, was well known for gold mining in the past (about twenty years ago). However, the place has since been reclaimed and converted to residential area without any environmental risk assessment of the impact of the mining tailings on the environment. Soil, water, and plant samples were collected from 4 different locations around the mine-turned-residential area. Soil samples were pulverized and sieved into finer particles, while the plant samples were dried and pulverized. All the samples were digested and analyzed for As, Pb, Cd, and Zn using atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS). From the analysis results, the hazard index (HI) was then calculated for the metals. The soil and plant samples were air dried and pulverized, then weighed, after which the samples were packed into special and properly sealed containers to prevent radon gas leakage. After the sealing, the samples were kept for 28 days to attain secular equilibrium. The concentrations of 40K, 238U, and 232Th in the samples were measured using a cesium iodide (CsI) spectrometer and URSA software. The AAS analysis showed that As, Pb, Cd (Toxic metals), and Zn (essential trace metals) are in concentrations lower than permissible limits in plants and soil samples, while the water samples had concentrations higher than permissible limits. The calculated health indices (HI) show that HI for water is >1 and that of plants and soil is <1. Gamma spectrometry result shows high levels of activity concentrations above the recommended limits for all the soil and plant samples collected from the area. Only the water samples have activity concentrations below the recommended limit. Consequently, the absorbed dose, annual effective dose, and excess lifetime cancer risk are all above the recommended safe limit for all the samples except for water samples. In conclusion, all the samples collected from the area are either contaminated with toxic metals or they pose radiological hazards to the consumers. Further detailed study is therefore recommended in order to be able to advise the residents appropriately.Keywords: toxic metals, gamma spectrometry, Ile-Ife, radiological hazards, gold mining
Procedia PDF Downloads 57356 A Life Cycle Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Traditional and Climate-smart Farming: A Case of Dhanusha District, Nepal
Authors: Arun Dhakal, Geoff Cockfield
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This paper examines the emission potential of different farming practices that the farmers have adopted in Dhanusha District of Nepal and scope of these practices in climate change mitigation. Which practice is more climate-smarter is the question that this aims to address through a life cycle assessment (LCA) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The LCA was performed to assess if there is difference in emission potential of broadly two farming systems (agroforestry–based and traditional agriculture) but specifically four farming systems. The required data for this was collected through household survey of randomly selected households of 200. The sources of emissions across the farming systems were paddy cultivation, livestock, chemical fertilizer, fossil fuels and biomass (fuel-wood and crop residue) burning. However, the amount of emission from these sources varied with farming system adopted. Emissions from biomass burning appeared to be the highest while the source ‘fossil fuel’ caused the lowest emission in all systems. The emissions decreased gradually from agriculture towards the highly integrated agroforestry-based farming system (HIS), indicating that integrating trees into farming system not only sequester more carbon but also help in reducing emissions from the system. The annual emissions for HIS, Medium integrated agroforestry-based farming system (MIS), LIS (less integrated agroforestry-based farming system and subsistence agricultural system (SAS) were 6.67 t ha-1, 8.62 t ha-1, 10.75 t ha-1 and 17.85 t ha-1 respectively. In one agroforestry cycle, the HIS, MIS and LIS released 64%, 52% and 40% less GHG emission than that of SAS. Within agroforestry-based farming systems, the HIS produced 25% and 50% less emissions than those of MIS and LIS respectively. Our finding suggests that a tree-based farming system is more climate-smarter than a traditional farming. If other two benefits (carbon sequestered within the farm and in the natural forest because of agroforestry) are to be considered, a considerable amount of emissions is reduced from a climate-smart farming. Some policy intervention is required to motivate farmers towards adopting such climate-friendly farming practices in developing countries.Keywords: life cycle assessment, greenhouse gas, climate change, farming systems, Nepal
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