Search results for: costs
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2137

Search results for: costs

517 Feature Selection Approach for the Classification of Hydraulic Leakages in Hydraulic Final Inspection using Machine Learning

Authors: Christian Neunzig, Simon Fahle, Jürgen Schulz, Matthias Möller, Bernd Kuhlenkötter

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Manufacturing companies are facing global competition and enormous cost pressure. The use of machine learning applications can help reduce production costs and create added value. Predictive quality enables the securing of product quality through data-supported predictions using machine learning models as a basis for decisions on test results. Furthermore, machine learning methods are able to process large amounts of data, deal with unfavourable row-column ratios and detect dependencies between the covariates and the given target as well as assess the multidimensional influence of all input variables on the target. Real production data are often subject to highly fluctuating boundary conditions and unbalanced data sets. Changes in production data manifest themselves in trends, systematic shifts, and seasonal effects. Thus, Machine learning applications require intensive pre-processing and feature selection. Data preprocessing includes rule-based data cleaning, the application of dimensionality reduction techniques, and the identification of comparable data subsets. Within the used real data set of Bosch hydraulic valves, the comparability of the same production conditions in the production of hydraulic valves within certain time periods can be identified by applying the concept drift method. Furthermore, a classification model is developed to evaluate the feature importance in different subsets within the identified time periods. By selecting comparable and stable features, the number of features used can be significantly reduced without a strong decrease in predictive power. The use of cross-process production data along the value chain of hydraulic valves is a promising approach to predict the quality characteristics of workpieces. In this research, the ada boosting classifier is used to predict the leakage of hydraulic valves based on geometric gauge blocks from machining, mating data from the assembly, and hydraulic measurement data from end-of-line testing. In addition, the most suitable methods are selected and accurate quality predictions are achieved.

Keywords: classification, achine learning, predictive quality, feature selection

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516 Prediction of Finned Projectile Aerodynamics Using a Lattice-Boltzmann Method CFD Solution

Authors: Zaki Abiza, Miguel Chavez, David M. Holman, Ruddy Brionnaud

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In this paper, the prediction of the aerodynamic behavior of the flow around a Finned Projectile will be validated using a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solution, XFlow, based on the Lattice-Boltzmann Method (LBM). XFlow is an innovative CFD software developed by Next Limit Dynamics. It is based on a state-of-the-art Lattice-Boltzmann Method which uses a proprietary particle-based kinetic solver and a LES turbulent model coupled with the generalized law of the wall (WMLES). The Lattice-Boltzmann method discretizes the continuous Boltzmann equation, a transport equation for the particle probability distribution function. From the Boltzmann transport equation, and by means of the Chapman-Enskog expansion, the compressible Navier-Stokes equations can be recovered. However to simulate compressible flows, this method has a Mach number limitation because of the lattice discretization. Thanks to this flexible particle-based approach the traditional meshing process is avoided, the discretization stage is strongly accelerated reducing engineering costs, and computations on complex geometries are affordable in a straightforward way. The projectile that will be used in this work is the Army-Navy Basic Finned Missile (ANF) with a caliber of 0.03 m. The analysis will consist in varying the Mach number from M=0.5 comparing the axial force coefficient, normal force slope coefficient and the pitch moment slope coefficient of the Finned Projectile obtained by XFlow with the experimental data. The slope coefficients will be obtained using finite difference techniques in the linear range of the polar curve. The aim of such an analysis is to find out the limiting Mach number value starting from which the effects of high fluid compressibility (related to transonic flow regime) lead the XFlow simulations to differ from the experimental results. This will allow identifying the critical Mach number which limits the validity of the isothermal formulation of XFlow and beyond which a fully compressible solver implementing a coupled momentum-energy equations would be required.

Keywords: CFD, computational fluid dynamics, drag, finned projectile, lattice-boltzmann method, LBM, lift, mach, pitch

Procedia PDF Downloads 392
515 Development of a Decision Model to Optimize Total Cost in Food Supply Chain

Authors: Henry Lau, Dilupa Nakandala, Li Zhao

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All along the length of the supply chain, fresh food firms face the challenge of managing both product quality, due to the perishable nature of the products, and product cost. This paper develops a method to assist logistics managers upstream in the fresh food supply chain in making cost optimized decisions regarding transportation, with the objective of minimizing the total cost while maintaining the quality of food products above acceptable levels. Considering the case of multiple fresh food products collected from multiple farms being transported to a warehouse or a retailer, this study develops a total cost model that includes various costs incurred during transportation. The practical application of the model is illustrated by using several computational intelligence approaches including Genetic Algorithms (GA), Fuzzy Genetic Algorithms (FGA) as well as an improved Simulated Annealing (SA) procedure applied with a repair mechanism for efficiency benchmarking. We demonstrate the practical viability of these approaches by using a simulation study based on pertinent data and evaluate the simulation outcomes. The application of the proposed total cost model was demonstrated using three approaches of GA, FGA and SA with a repair mechanism. All three approaches are adoptable; however, based on the performance evaluation, it was evident that the FGA is more likely to produce a better performance than the other two approaches of GA and SA. This study provides a pragmatic approach for supporting logistics and supply chain practitioners in fresh food industry in making important decisions on the arrangements and procedures related to the transportation of multiple fresh food products to a warehouse from multiple farms in a cost-effective way without compromising product quality. This study extends the literature on cold supply chain management by investigating cost and quality optimization in a multi-product scenario from farms to a retailer and, minimizing cost by managing the quality above expected quality levels at delivery. The scalability of the proposed generic function enables the application to alternative situations in practice such as different storage environments and transportation conditions.

Keywords: cost optimization, food supply chain, fuzzy sets, genetic algorithms, product quality, transportation

Procedia PDF Downloads 198
514 Self-rated Health as a Predictor of Hospitalizations in Patients with Bipolar Disorder and Major Depression: A Prospective Cohort Study of the United Kingdom Biobank

Authors: Haoyu Zhao, Qianshu Ma, Min Xie, Yunqi Huang, Yunjia Liu, Huan Song, Hongsheng Gui, Mingli Li, Qiang Wang

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Rationale: Bipolar disorder (BD) and major depressive disorder (MDD), as severe chronic illnesses that restrict patients’ psychosocial functioning and reduce their quality of life, are both categorized into mood disorders. Emerging evidence has suggested that the reliability of self-rated health (SRH) was wellvalidated and that the risk of various health outcomes, including mortality and health care costs, could be predicted by SRH. Compared with other lengthy multi-item patient-reported outcomes (PRO) measures, SRH was proven to have a comparable predictive ability to predict mortality and healthcare utilization. However, to our knowledge, no study has been conducted to assess the association between SRH and hospitalization among people with mental disorders. Therefore, our study aims to determine the association between SRH and subsequent all-cause hospitalizations in patients with BD and MDD. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study on people with BD or MDD in the UK from 2006 to 2010 using UK Biobank touchscreen questionnaire data and linked administrative health databases. The association between SRH and 2-year all-cause hospitalizations was assessed using proportional hazard regression after adjustment for sociodemographics, lifestyle behaviors, previous hospitalization use, the Elixhauser comorbidity index, and environmental factors. Results: A total of 29,966 participants were identified, experiencing 10,279 hospitalization events. Among the cohort, the average age was 55.88 (SD 8.01) years, 64.02% were female, and 3,029 (10.11%), 15,972 (53.30%), 8,313 (27.74%), and 2,652 (8.85%) reported excellent, good, fair, and poor SRH, respectively. Among patients reporting poor SRH, 54.19% had a hospitalization event within 2 years compared with 22.65% for those having excellent SRH. In the adjusted analysis, patients with good, fair, and poor SRH had 1.31 (95% CI 1.21-1.42), 1.82 (95% CI 1.68-1.98), and 2.45 (95% CI 2.22, 2.70) higher hazards of hospitalization, respectively, than those with excellent SRH. Conclusion: SRH was independently associated with subsequent all-cause hospitalizations in patients with BD or MDD. This large study facilitates rapid interpretation of SRH values and underscores the need for proactive SRH screening in this population, which might inform resource allocation and enhance high-risk population detection.

Keywords: severe mental illnesses, hospitalization, risk prediction, patient-reported outcomes

Procedia PDF Downloads 138
513 Assessing Project Performance through Work Sampling and Earned Value Analysis

Authors: Shobha Ramalingam

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The majority of the infrastructure projects are affected by time overrun, resulting in project delays and subsequently cost overruns. Time overrun may vary from a few months to as high as five or more years, placing the project viability at risk. One of the probable reasons noted in the literature for this outcome in projects is due to poor productivity. Researchers contend that productivity in construction has only marginally increased over the years. While studies in the literature have extensively focused on time and cost parameters in projects, there are limited studies that integrate time and cost with productivity to assess project performance. To this end, a study was conducted to understand the project delay factors concerning cost, time and productivity. A case-study approach was adopted to collect rich data from a nuclear power plant project site for two months through observation, interviews and document review. The data were analyzed using three different approaches for a comprehensive understanding. Foremost, a root-cause analysis was performed on the data using Ishikawa’s fish-bone diagram technique to identify the various factors impacting the delay concerning time. Based on it, a questionnaire was designed and circulated to concerned executives, including project engineers and contractors to determine the frequency of occurrence of the delay, which was then compiled and presented to the management for a possible solution to mitigate. Second, a productivity analysis was performed on select activities, including rebar bending and concreting through a time-motion study to analyze product performance. Third, data on cost of construction for three years allowed analyzing the cost performance using earned value management technique. All three techniques allowed to systematically and comprehensively identify the key factors that deter project performance and productivity loss in the construction of the nuclear power plant project. The findings showed that improper planning and coordination between multiple trades, concurrent operations, improper workforce and material management, fatigue due to overtime were some of the key factors that led to delays and poor productivity. The findings are expected to act as a stepping stone for further research and have implications for practitioners.

Keywords: earned value analysis, time performance, project costs, project delays, construction productivity

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512 Impact of Clinical Pharmacist Intervention in Improving Drug Related Problems in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease

Authors: Aneena Suresh, C. S. Sidharth

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Drug related problems (DRPs) are common in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients and end stage patients undergoing hemodialysis. To treat the co-morbid conditions of the patients, more complex therapeutic regimen is required, and it leads to development of DRPs. So, this calls for frequent monitoring of the patients. Due to the busy work schedules, physicians are unable to deliver optimal care to these patients. Addition of a clinical pharmacist in the team will improve the standard of care offered to CKD patients by minimizing DRPs. In India, the role of clinical pharmacists in the improving the health outcomes in CKD patients is poorly recognized. Therefore, this study is conducted to put an insight on the role of clinical pharmacist in improving Drug Related Problems in patients with chronic kidney disease, thereby helping them to achieve desired therapeutic outcomes in the patients. A prospective interventional study was conducted for a year in a 620 bedded tertiary care hospital in India. Data was collected using an unstructured questionnaire, medication charts, etc. DRPs were categorized using Hepler and Strand classification. Relationships between the age, weight, GFR, average no of medication taken, average no of comorbidities, and average length of hospital days with the DRPs were identified using Mann Whitney U test. The study population primarily constituted of patients above the age of 50 years with a mean age of 59.91±13.59. Our study showed that 25% of the population presented with DRPs. On an average, CKD patients are prescribed at least 8 medications for the treatment in our study. This explains the high incidence of drug interactions in patients suffering from CKD (45.65%). The least common DRPs in our study were found to be sub therapeutic dose (2%) and adverse drug reactions (2%). Out of this, 60 % of the DRPs were addressed successfully. In our study, there is an association between the DRPs with the average number of medications prescribed, the average number of comorbidities, and the length of the hospital days with p value of 0.022, 0.004, and 0.000, respectively. In the current study, 86% of the proposed interventions were accepted, and 41 % were implemented by the physician, and only 14% were rejected. Hence, it is evident that clinical pharmacist interventions will contribute significantly to diminish the DRPs in CKD patients, thereby decreasing the economic burden of healthcare costs and improving patient’s quality of life.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, clinical pharmacist, drug related problem, intervention

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511 Export and Import Indicators of Georgian Agri-food Products during the Pandemic: Challenges and Opportunities

Authors: Eteri Kharaishvili

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Introduction. The paper analyzes the main indicators of export and import of Georgian agri-food products; identifies positive and negative trends under the pandemic; based on the revealed problemssubstantiates the need formodernization ofin agri-food sector. It is argued that low production and productivity rates of food products negatively impact achieving the optimal export-to-import ratio; therefore, it leads toincreaseddependence on other countries andreduces the level of food security. Research objectives. The objective of the research is to identify the key challenges based on the analysis of export-import indicators of Georgian food products during the pandemic period and develop recommendations on the possibilities of post-pandemic perspectives. Research methods. Various theoretical and methodological research tools are used in the paper; in particular, a desk research is carried out on the research topic; endogenous and exogenous variables affecting export and import are determined through factor analysis; SWOT and PESTEL analysis are used to identify development opportunities; selection and groupingof data, identification of similarities and differences is carried outby using analysis, synthesis, sampling, induction and other methods; a qualitative study is conducted based on a survey of agri-food experts and exporters for clarifying the factors that impede export-import flows. Contributions. The factors that impede the export of Georgian agri-food products in the short run under COVID-19 pandemic are identified. These are: reduced income of farmers, delays in the supply of raw materials and supplies to the agri-food sectorfrom the neighboring industries, as well as in harvesting, processing, marketing, transportation, and other sectors; increased indirect costs, etc. The factors that impede the export in the long run areas follows loss of public confidence in the industry, risk of losing positions in traditional markets, etc. Conclusions are made on the problems in the field of export and import of Georgian agri-food products in terms of the pandemic; development opportunities are evaluated based on the analysis of the agri-food sector potential. Recommendations on the development opportunities for export and import of Georgian agri-food products in the post-pandemic period are proposed.

Keywords: agri-food products, export, and import, pandemic period, hindering factor, development potential

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510 Geometric, Energetic and Topological Analysis of (Ethanol)₉-Water Heterodecamers

Authors: Jennifer Cuellar, Angie L. Parada, Kevin N. S. Chacon, Sol M. Mejia

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The purification of bio-ethanol through distillation methods is an unresolved issue at the biofuel industry because of the ethanol-water azeotrope formation, which increases the steps of the purification process and subsequently increases the production costs. Therefore, understanding the mixture nature at the molecular level could provide new insights for improving the current methods and/or designing new and more efficient purification methods. For that reason, the present study focuses on the evaluation and analysis of (ethanol)₉-water heterodecamers, as the systems with the minimum molecular proportion that represents the azeotropic concentration (96 %m/m in ethanol). The computational modelling was carried out with B3LYP-D3/6-311++G(d,p) in Gaussian 09. Initial explorations of the potential energy surface were done through two methods: annealing simulated runs and molecular dynamics trajectories besides intuitive structures obtained from smaller (ethanol)n-water heteroclusters, n = 7, 8 and 9. The energetic order of the seven stable heterodecamers determines the most stable heterodecamer (Hdec-1) as a structure forming a bicyclic geometry with the O-H---O hydrogen bonds (HBs) where the water is a double proton donor molecule. Hdec-1 combines 1 water molecule and the same quantity of every ethanol conformer; this is, 3 trans, 3 gauche 1 and 3 gauche 2; its abundance is 89%, its decamerization energy is -80.4 kcal/mol, i.e. 13 kcal/mol most stable than the less stable heterodecamer. Besides, a way to understand why methanol does not form an azeotropic mixture with water, analogous systems ((ethanol)10, (methanol)10, and (methanol)9-water)) were optimized. Topologic analysis of the electron density reveals that Hec-1 forms 33 weak interactions in total: 11 O-H---O, 8 C-H---O, 2 C-H---C hydrogen bonds and 12 H---H interactions. The strength and abundance of the most unconventional interactions (H---H, C-H---O and C-H---O) seem to explain the preference of the ethanol for forming heteroclusters instead of clusters. Besides, O-H---O HBs present a significant covalent character according to topologic parameters as the Laplacian of electron density and the relationship between potential and kinetic energy densities evaluated at the bond critical points; obtaining negatives values and values between 1 and 2, for those two topological parameters, respectively.

Keywords: ADMP, DFT, ethanol-water azeotrope, Grimme dispersion correction, simulated annealing, weak interactions

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509 Effects of Ig Y Supplementation to Colostrum Having Insufficient Antibodies on Calves Metabolism and Costs

Authors: Cangir Uyarlar, Eyup Eren Gultepe, Mustafa Kabu, Hacı Ahmet Celik

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This study aimed to evaluate the effects of orally Immunoglobulin (Ig) Y treatments to calves were fed with colostrum having insufficient antibodies before first suckling. A total of 28 Holstein calves were fed assigned into control and treatment groups. The calves were fed fresh colostrum from their respective mother for the first 4 days. The treatment group calves were orally administered IgLock (10 g/d/calf) immediately before the first colostrum feeding and IgLock was administered just one time in treatment group calves. Then, the calves were offered normal milk until weaning. After weaning, all calves kept same paddock and were fed same ration. Diarrhea and respiratoric diseases were recorded for one year. Blood was collected from all calves in the study on birth day (0 day) before vaccination and IgLock administration, then, collected for the following 2 days in all groups. Albumin (ALB), Total Protein (TP), Aspartate Aminotransferase (AST), Alanine Aminotrasferase (ALT), Gamma-Glutamyl Transferase (GGT), Serum Amyloid A (SAA), Haptoglobin (HPT) and Ig G analyses were performed on all samples. Although serum ALB, ALT, GGT and Ig G levels were not shown a time dependent-change within control group; serum TP, AST, HPT and SAA levels were significantly changed by the time within mentioned group. Serum TP level was steady at first 2 days, then, it was increased significantly at 3rd day. Also, serum AST level was significantly increased at 2nd day, then it was descended to first day levels again at 3rd day. Although serum HPT levels were shown a significant gradually decreasing within control group, serum SAA levels were decreased rapidly after first day and there were no significance differences between 2nd and 3rd day in SAA levels. Serum ALB, ALT, HPT and SAA levels were not shown a time dependent-change within treatmet group. After first day Serum TP, GGT, AST and Ig G levels were shown an significant increasing at 2nd day. Serum TP, GGT and Ig G levels were higher as compared to 1st day within treatment group at 3rd day. But, serum AST level was less significantly 3rd day as compared to 2nd day values. The total numbers of calves suffered from diarrhea were significantly less in treatment group as compared to control group (p < 0,05). The pneumonia reappear ratio in calves suffered the diseases is 33,3% in control group and 11,11% in treatment group. Total cost of diseases and additives was 2339,36 $ for control and 1276,4 $ for treatment. As a conclusion, the immunity enhancers like IgLock are important and cost-effective to boost up immunity status in the early age which would be having positive effects on calves were received colostrum included insufficient antibodies.

Keywords: dairy calves, Ig Y, pneumonia, scours

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508 Deep Learning for Renewable Power Forecasting: An Approach Using LSTM Neural Networks

Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: deep learning, long short term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting

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507 Self-Energy Sufficiency Assessment of the Biorefinery Annexed to a Typical South African Sugar Mill

Authors: M. Ali Mandegari, S. Farzad, , J. F. Görgens

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Sugar is one of the main agricultural industries in South Africa and approximately livelihoods of one million South Africans are indirectly dependent on sugar industry which is economically struggling with some problems and should re-invent in order to ensure a long-term sustainability. Second generation biorefinery is defined as a process to use waste fibrous for the production of biofuel, chemicals animal food, and electricity. Bioethanol is by far the most widely used biofuel for transportation worldwide and many challenges in front of bioethanol production were solved. Biorefinery annexed to the existing sugar mill for production of bioethanol and electricity is proposed to sugar industry and is addressed in this study. Since flowsheet development is the key element of the bioethanol process, in this work, a biorefinery (bioethanol and electricity production) annexed to a typical South African sugar mill considering 65ton/h dry sugarcane bagasse and tops/trash as feedstock was simulated. Aspen PlusTM V8.6 was applied as simulator and realistic simulation development approach was followed to reflect the practical behaviour of the plant. Latest results of other researches considering pretreatment, hydrolysis, fermentation, enzyme production, bioethanol production and other supplementary units such as evaporation, water treatment, boiler, and steam/electricity generation units were adopted to establish a comprehensive biorefinery simulation. Steam explosion with SO2 was selected for pretreatment due to minimum inhibitor production and simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) configuration was adopted for enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation of cellulose and hydrolyze. Bioethanol purification was simulated by two distillation columns with side stream and fuel grade bioethanol (99.5%) was achieved using molecular sieve in order to minimize the capital and operating costs. Also boiler and steam/power generation were completed using industrial design data. Results indicates that the annexed biorefinery can be self-energy sufficient when 35% of feedstock (tops/trash) bypass the biorefinery process and directly be loaded to the boiler to produce sufficient steam and power for sugar mill and biorefinery plant.

Keywords: biorefinery, self-energy sufficiency, tops/trash, bioethanol, electricity

Procedia PDF Downloads 518
506 Biodiesel Production from Edible Oil Wastewater Sludge with Bioethanol Using Nano-Magnetic Catalysis

Authors: Wighens Ngoie Ilunga, Pamela J. Welz, Olewaseun O. Oyekola, Daniel Ikhu-Omoregbe

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Currently, most sludge from the wastewater treatment plants of edible oil factories is disposed to landfills, but landfill sites are finite and potential sources of environmental pollution. Production of biodiesel from wastewater sludge can contribute to energy production and waste minimization. However, conventional biodiesel production is energy and waste intensive. Generally, biodiesel is produced from the transesterification reaction of oils with alcohol (i.e., Methanol, ethanol) in the presence of a catalyst. Homogeneously catalysed transesterification is the conventional approach for large-scale production of biodiesel as reaction times are relatively short. Nevertheless, homogenous catalysis presents several challenges such as high probability of soap. The current study aimed to reuse wastewater sludge from the edible oil industry as a novel feedstock for both monounsaturated fats and bioethanol for the production of biodiesel. Preliminary results have shown that the fatty acid profile of the oilseed wastewater sludge is favourable for biodiesel production with 48% (w/w) monounsaturated fats and that the residue left after the extraction of fats from the sludge contains sufficient fermentable sugars after steam explosion followed by an enzymatic hydrolysis for the successful production of bioethanol [29% (w/w)] using a commercial strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. A novel nano-magnetic catalyst was synthesised from mineral processing alkaline tailings, mainly containing dolomite originating from cupriferous ores using a modified sol-gel. The catalyst elemental chemical compositions and structural properties were characterised by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), Fourier transform infra-red (FTIR) and the BET for the surface area with 14.3 m²/g and 34.1 nm average pore diameter. The mass magnetization of the nano-magnetic catalyst was 170 emu/g. Both the catalytic properties and reusability of the catalyst were investigated. A maximum biodiesel yield of 78% was obtained, which dropped to 52% after the fourth transesterification reaction cycle. The proposed approach has the potential to reduce material costs, energy consumption and water usage associated with conventional biodiesel production technologies. It may also mitigate the impact of conventional biodiesel production on food and land security, while simultaneously reducing waste.

Keywords: biodiesel, bioethanol, edible oil wastewater sludge, nano-magnetism

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505 Piql Preservation Services - A Holistic Approach to Digital Long-Term Preservation

Authors: Alexander Rych

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Piql Preservation Services (“Piql”) is a turnkey solution designed for secure, migration-free long- term preservation of digital data. Piql sets an open standard for long- term preservation for the future. It consists of equipment and processes needed for writing and retrieving digital data. Exponentially growing amounts of data demand for logistically effective and cost effective processes. Digital storage media (hard disks, magnetic tape) exhibit limited lifetime. Repetitive data migration to overcome rapid obsolescence of hardware and software bears accelerated risk of data loss, data corruption or even manipulation and adds significant repetitive costs for hardware and software investments. Piql stores any kind of data in its digital as well as analog form securely for 500 years. The medium that provides this is a film reel. Using photosensitive film polyester base, a very stable material that is known for its immutability over hundreds of years, secure and cost-effective long- term preservation can be provided. The film reel itself is stored in a packaging capable of protecting the optical storage medium. These components have undergone extensive testing to ensure longevity of up to 500 years. In addition to its durability, film is a true WORM (write once- read many) medium. It therefore is resistant to editing or manipulation. Being able to store any form of data onto the film makes Piql a superior solution for long-term preservation. Paper documents, images, video or audio sequences – all of those file formats and documents can be preserved in its native file structure. In order to restore the encoded digital data, only a film scanner, a digital camera or any appropriate optical reading device will be needed in the future. Every film reel includes an index section describing the data saved on the film. It also contains a content section carrying meta-data, enabling users in the future to rebuild software in order to read and decode the digital information.

Keywords: digital data, long-term preservation, migration-free, photosensitive film

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504 Comparative Analysis of a Self-Supporting Wall of Granite Slabs in a Multi-Leaves Enclosure System

Authors: Miguel Angel Calvo Salve

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Building enclosures and façades not only have an aesthetic component they must also ensure thermal comfort and improve the acoustics and air quality in buildings. The role of facades design, its assemblies, and construction are key in developing a greener future in architecture. This research and study focus on the design of a multi-leaves building envelope, with a self-supporting wall of granite slabs. The study will demonstrate the advantages of its use in compare with the hanging stone veneer in a vented cladding system. Using the Design of the School of Music and Theatre of the Atlantic Area in Spain as a case study where the multi-leaves enclosure system consists in a self-supported outer leaf of large granite slabs of 15cm. of thickness, a vent cavity with thermal isolation, a brick wall, and a series of internal layers. The methodology used were simulations and data collected in building. The advantages of the self-supporting wall of granite slabs in the outer leaf (15cm). compared with a hanging stone veneer in a vented cladding system can summarize the goals as follows: Using the stone in more natural way, by compression. The weight of the stone slabs goes directly to a strip-footing and don't overload the reinforced concrete structure of the building. The weight of the stone slabs provides an external aerial soundproofing, preventing the sound transmission to the structure. The thickness of the stone slabs is enough to provide the external waterproofing of the building envelope. The self-supporting system with minimum anchorages allows having a continuous and external thermal isolation without thermal bridges. The thickness of ashlars masonry provides a thermal inertia that balances the temperatures between day and night in the external thermal insulation layer. The absence of open joints gives the quality of a continuous envelope transmitting the sensations of the stone, the heaviness in the facade, the rhythm of the music and the sequence of the theatre. The main cost of stone due his bigger thickness is more than compensated with the reduction in assembly costs. Don´t need any substructure systems for hanging stone veneers.

Keywords: self-supporting wall, stone cladding systems, hanging veneer cladding systems, sustainability of facade systems

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503 Removal of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons from Contaminated Soils by Electrochemical Method

Authors: D. M. Cocârță, I. A. Istrate, C. Streche, D. M. Dumitru

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Soil contamination phenomena are a wide world issue that has received the important attention in the last decades. The main pollutants that have affected soils are especially those resulted from the oil extraction, transport and processing. This paper presents results obtained in the framework of a research project focused on the management of contaminated sites with petroleum products/ REMPET. One of the specific objectives of the REMPET project was to assess the electrochemical treatment (improved with polarity change respect to the typical approach) as a treatment option for the remediation of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPHs) from contaminated soils. Petroleum hydrocarbon compounds attach to soil components and are difficult to remove and degrade. Electrochemical treatment is a physicochemical treatment that has gained acceptance as an alternative method, for the remediation of organic contaminated soils comparing with the traditional methods as bioremediation and chemical oxidation. This type of treatment need short time and have high removal efficiency, being usually applied in heterogeneous soils with low permeability. During the experimental tests, the following parameters were monitored: pH, redox potential, humidity, current intensity, energy consumption. The electrochemical method was applied in an experimental setup with the next dimensions: 450 mm x 150 mm x 150 mm (L x l x h). The setup length was devised in three electrochemical cells that were connected at two power supplies. The power supplies configuration was provided in such manner that each cell has a cathode and an anode without overlapping. The initial value of TPH concentration in soil was of 1420.28 mg/kgdw. The remediation method has been applied for only 21 days, when it was already noticed an average removal efficiency of 31 %, with better results in the anode area respect to the cathode one (33% respect to 27%). The energy consumption registered after the development of the experiment was 10.6 kWh for exterior power supply and 16.1 kWh for the interior one. Taking into account that at national level, the most used methods for soil remediation are bioremediation (which needs too much time to be implemented and depends on many factors) and thermal desorption (which involves high costs in order to be implemented), the study of electrochemical treatment will give an alternative to these two methods (and their limitations).

Keywords: electrochemical remediation, pollution, total petroleum hydrocarbons, soil contamination

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502 Impact of Preoperative Physiotherapy Care in Total Hip Arthroplasty in Slovakia and Austria

Authors: Peter Kutis, Vladimir Littva

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Nowadays, it is necessary to ensure that this reduction in costs is not at the expense of the quality of health care and future medical success. In general, physiotherapy for total hip joint arthroplasty is considered to be a routine matter that deals mainly with mobility training, increased muscular strength, and basic day-to-day activities such as bed-to-chair transition, standing, and walking. Within the KEGA project no. 003KU-4-2021, we decided to investigate preoperative physiotherapy care in Slovakia and Austria in total hip arthroplasty patients to shortened overall recovery. Research Sample and Methods: The sample comprised 498 respondents –patients who were indicated to total hip arthroplasty on the territory of Slovakia and Austria. There were 130 women in Slovakia and 135 women in Austria. The numbers of men were 120 in Slovakia and 113 men in Austria. The age of respondents was between 40 and 85 years of age. As a method of our research, we chose a non-standardized questionnaire, which consisted of three parts. The first part for the initial examination of the patient contained the identification of the patient according to the assigned number and subsequently 19 questions conditioned by the physical examination and evaluation of the patients. The second part of our questionnaire was completed after the patient's hospitalization and contained 10 questions that were conditioned by the patient's examination. The last third part for the overall assessment of the patient's state of health consisted of 12 questions conditioned by the patient's examination. This part was performed at the last meeting with the patient at the end of the treatment. All data were statistically processed by SPSS 25. Results: All data were evaluated at a significance level of p = 0.05. From the comparison of patients who underwent preoperative preparation, we can clearly state that the total duration of treatment is significantly shorter. A t-test of two mean values with uneven variance was used to verify the validity of the assumption. The total duration of treatment in patients with preoperative preparation was on average 92,635 days and without preoperative preparation was on average 135,884 days (t-Stat = 44,52784, t Critical one-tail = 1,648187415, t Critical two-tail = 1,965157). Conclusion: The results obtained during the research show the importance of adequate preoperative physiotherapeutic preparation of the patient. The results of total hip joint arthroplasty studies showed a significant reduction in a hospital stay as well as shortened total treatment time.

Keywords: THA, physiotherapy, recovery, preoperative physiotherapy care

Procedia PDF Downloads 157
501 Simulation of Colombian Exchange Rate to Cover the Exchange Risk Using Financial Options Like Hedge Strategy

Authors: Natalia M. Acevedo, Luis M. Jimenez, Erick Lambis

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Imperfections in the capital market are used to argue the relevance of the corporate risk management function. With corporate hedge, the value of the company is increased by reducing the volatility of the expected cash flow and making it possible to face a lower bankruptcy costs and financial difficulties, without sacrificing tax advantages for debt financing. With the propose to avoid exchange rate troubles over cash flows of Colombian exporting firms, this dissertation uses financial options, over exchange rate between Peso and Dollar, for realizing a financial hedge. In this study, a strategy of hedge is designed for an exporting company in Colombia with the objective of preventing fluctuations because, if the exchange rate down, the number of Colombian pesos that obtains the company by exports, is less than agreed. The exchange rate of Colombia is measured by the TRM (Representative Market Rate), representing the number of Colombian pesos for an American dollar. First, the TMR is modelled through the Geometric Brownian Motion, with this, the project price is simulated using Montecarlo simulations and finding the mean of TRM for three, six and twelve months. For financial hedging, currency options were used. The 6-month projection was covered with financial options on European-type currency with a strike price of $ 2,780.47 for each month; this value corresponds to the last value of the historical TRM. In the compensation of the options in each month, the price paid for the premium, calculated with the Black-Scholes method for currency options, was considered. Finally, with the modeling of prices and the Monte Carlo simulation, the effect of the exchange hedging with options on the exporting company was determined, this by means of the unit price estimate to which the dollars in the scenario without coverage were changed and scenario with coverage. After using the scenarios: is determinate that the TRM will have a bull trend and the exporting firm will be affected positively because they will get more pesos for each dollar. The results show that the financial options manage to reduce the exchange risk. The expected value with coverage is approximate to the expected value without coverage, but the 5% percentile with coverage is greater than without coverage. The foregoing indicates that in the worst scenarios the exporting companies will obtain better prices for the sale of the currencies if they cover.

Keywords: currency hedging, futures, geometric Brownian motion, options

Procedia PDF Downloads 102
500 Flow Sheet Development and Simulation of a Bio-refinery Annexed to Typical South African Sugar Mill

Authors: M. Ali Mandegari, S. Farzad, J. F. Görgens

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Sugar is one of the main agricultural industries in South Africa and approximately livelihoods of one million South Africans are indirectly dependent on sugar industry which is economically struggling with some problems and should re-invent in order to ensure a long-term sustainability. Second generation bio-refinery is defined as a process to use waste fibrous for the production of bio-fuel, chemicals animal food, and electricity. Bio-ethanol is by far the most widely used bio-fuel for transportation worldwide and many challenges in front of bio-ethanol production were solved. Bio-refinery annexed to the existing sugar mill for production of bio-ethanol and electricity is proposed to sugar industry and is addressed in this study. Since flow-sheet development is the key element of the bio-ethanol process, in this work, a bio-refinery (bio-ethanol and electricity production) annexed to a typical South African sugar mill considering 65ton/h dry sugarcane bagasse and tops/trash as feedstock was simulated. Aspen PlusTM V8.6 was applied as simulator and realistic simulation development approach was followed to reflect the practical behavior of the plant. Latest results of other researches considering pretreatment, hydrolysis, fermentation, enzyme production, bio-ethanol production and other supplementary units such as evaporation, water treatment, boiler, and steam/electricity generation units were adopted to establish a comprehensive bio-refinery simulation. Steam explosion with SO2 was selected for pretreatment due to minimum inhibitor production and simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) configuration was adopted for enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation of cellulose and hydrolyze. Bio-ethanol purification was simulated by two distillation columns with side stream and fuel grade bio-ethanol (99.5%) was achieved using molecular sieve in order to minimize the capital and operating costs. Also boiler and steam/power generation were completed using industrial design data. Results indicates 256.6 kg bio ethanol per ton of feedstock and 31 MW surplus power were attained from bio-refinery while the process consumes 3.5, 3.38, and 0.164 (GJ/ton per ton of feedstock) hot utility, cold utility and electricity respectively. Developed simulation is a threshold of variety analyses and developments for further studies.

Keywords: bio-refinery, bagasse, tops, trash, bio-ethanol, electricity

Procedia PDF Downloads 500
499 Reducing the Incidence Rate of Pressure Sore in a Medical Center in Taiwan

Authors: Chang Yu Chuan

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Background and Aim: Pressure sore is not only the consequence of any gradual damage of the skin leading to tissue defects but also an important indicator of clinical care. If hospitalized patients develop pressure sores without proper care, it would result in delayed healing, wound infection, increase patient physical pain, prolonged hospital stay and even death, which would have a negative impact on the quality of care and also increase nursing manpower and medical costs. This project is aimed at decreasing the incidence of pressure sore in one ward of internal medicine. Our data showed 53 cases (0.61%) of pressure sore in 2015, which exceeded the average (0.5%) of Taiwan Clinical Performance Indicator (TCPI) for medical centers. The purpose of this project is to reduce the incidence rate of pressure sore in the ward. After data collection and analysis from January to December 2016, the reasons of developing pressure sore were found: 1. Lack of knowledge to prevent pressure among nursing staffs; 2. No relevant courses about preventing pressure ulcers and pressure wound care being held in this unit; 3. Low complete rate of pressure sore care education that family members should receive from nursing staffs; 4. Decompression equipment is not enough; 5. Lack of standard procedures for body-turning and positioning care. After team members brainstorming, several strategies were proposed, including holding in-service education, pressure sore care seed training, purchasing decompression mattress and memory pillows, designing more elements of health education tools, such as health education pamphlet, posters and multimedia films of body-turning and positioning demonstration, formulation and promotion of standard operating procedures. In this way, nursing staffs can understand the body-turning and positioning guidelines for pressure sore prevention and enhance the quality of care. After the implementation of this project, the pressure sore density significantly decreased from 0.61%(53 cases) to 0.45%(28 cases) in this ward. The project shows good results and good example for nurses working at the ward and helps to enhance quality of care.

Keywords: body-turning and positioning, incidence density, nursing, pressure sore

Procedia PDF Downloads 246
498 AI-based Digital Healthcare Application to Assess and Reduce Fall Risks in Residents of Nursing Homes in Germany

Authors: Knol Hester, Müller Swantje, Danchenko Natalya

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Objective: Falls in older people cause an autonomy loss and result in an economic burden. LCare is an AI-based application to manage fall risks. The study's aim was to assess the effect of LCare use on patient outcomes in nursing homes in Germany. Methods: LCare identifies and monitors fall risks through a 3D-gait analysis and a digital questionnaire, resulting in tailored recommendations on fall prevention. A study was conducted with AOK Baden-Württemberg (01.09.2019- 31.05.2021) in 16 care facilities. Assessments at baseline and follow-up included: a fall risk score; falls (baseline: fall history in the past 12 months; follow-up: a fall record since the last analysis); fall-related injuries and hospitalizations; gait speed; fear of falling; psychological stress; nurses experience on app use. Results: 94 seniors were aged 65-99 years at the initial analysis (average 84±7 years); 566 mobility analyses were carried out in total. On average, the fall risk was reduced by 17.8 % as compared to the baseline (p<0.05). The risk of falling decreased across all subgroups, including a trend in dementia patients (p=0.06), constituting 43% of analyzed patients, and patients with walking aids (p<0.05), constituting 76% of analyzed patients. There was a trend (p<0.1) towards fewer falls and fall-related injuries and hospitalizations (baseline: 23 seniors who fell, 13 injury consequences, 9 hospitalizations; follow-up: 14 seniors who fell, 2 injury consequences, 0 hospitalizations). There was a 16% improvement in gait speed (p<0.05). Residents reported less fear of falling and psychological stress by 38% in both outcomes (p<0.05). 81% of nurses found LCare effective. Conclusions: In the presented study, the use of LCare app was associated with a reduction of fall risk among nursing home residents, improvement of health-related outcomes, and a trend toward reduction in injuries and hospitalizations. LCare may help to improve senior resident care and save healthcare costs.

Keywords: falls, digital healthcare, falls prevention, nursing homes, seniors, AI, digital assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 104
497 A Study on the Measurement of Spatial Mismatch and the Influencing Factors of “Job-Housing” in Affordable Housing from the Perspective of Commuting

Authors: Daijun Chen

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Affordable housing is subsidized by the government to meet the housing demand of low and middle-income urban residents in the process of urbanization and to alleviate the housing inequality caused by market-based housing reforms. It is a recognized fact that the living conditions of the insured have been improved while constructing the subsidized housing. However, the choice of affordable housing is mostly in the suburbs, where the surrounding urban functions and infrastructure are incomplete, resulting in the spatial mismatch of "jobs-housing" in affordable housing. The main reason for this problem is that the residents of affordable housing are more sensitive to the spatial location of their residence, but their selectivity and controllability to the housing location are relatively weak, which leads to higher commuting costs. Their real cost of living has not been effectively reduced. In this regard, 92 subsidized housing communities in Nanjing, China, are selected as the research sample in this paper. The residents of the affordable housing and their commuting Spatio-temporal behavior characteristics are identified based on the LBS (location-based service) data. Based on the spatial mismatch theory, spatial mismatch indicators such as commuting distance and commuting time are established to measure the spatial mismatch degree of subsidized housing in different districts of Nanjing. Furthermore, the geographically weighted regression model is used to analyze the influencing factors of the spatial mismatch of affordable housing in terms of the provision of employment opportunities, traffic accessibility and supporting service facilities by using spatial, functional and other multi-source Spatio-temporal big data. The results show that the spatial mismatch of affordable housing in Nanjing generally presents a "concentric circle" pattern of decreasing from the central urban area to the periphery. The factors affecting the spatial mismatch of affordable housing in different spatial zones are different. The main reasons are the number of enterprises within 1 km of the affordable housing district and the shortest distance to the subway station. And the low spatial mismatch is due to the diversity of services and facilities. Based on this, a spatial optimization strategy for different levels of spatial mismatch in subsidized housing is proposed. And feasible suggestions for the later site selection of subsidized housing are also provided. It hopes to avoid or mitigate the impact of "spatial mismatch," promote the "spatial adaptation" of "jobs-housing," and truly improve the overall welfare level of affordable housing residents.

Keywords: affordable housing, spatial mismatch, commuting characteristics, spatial adaptation, welfare benefits

Procedia PDF Downloads 84
496 The Verification Study of Computational Fluid Dynamics Model of the Aircraft Piston Engine

Authors: Lukasz Grabowski, Konrad Pietrykowski, Michal Bialy

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This paper presents the results of the research to verify the combustion in aircraft piston engine Asz62-IR. This engine was modernized and a type of ignition system was developed. Due to the high costs of experiments of a nine-cylinder 1,000 hp aircraft engine, a simulation technique should be applied. Therefore, computational fluid dynamics to simulate the combustion process is a reasonable solution. Accordingly, the tests for varied ignition advance angles were carried out and the optimal value to be tested on a real engine was specified. The CFD model was created with the AVL Fire software. The engine in the research had two spark plugs for each cylinder and ignition advance angles had to be set up separately for each spark. The results of the simulation were verified by comparing the pressure in the cylinder. The courses of the indicated pressure of the engine mounted on a test stand were compared. The real course of pressure was measured with an optical sensor, mounted in a specially drilled hole between the valves. It was the OPTRAND pressure sensor, which was designed especially to engine combustion process research. The indicated pressure was measured in cylinder no 3. The engine was running at take-off power. The engine was loaded by a propeller at a special test bench. The verification of the CFD simulation results was based on the results of the test bench studies. The course of the simulated pressure obtained is within the measurement error of the optical sensor. This error is 1% and reflects the hysteresis and nonlinearity of the sensor. The real indicated pressure measured in the cylinder and the pressure taken from the simulation were compared. It can be claimed that the verification of CFD simulations based on the pressure is a success. The next step was to research on the impact of changing the ignition advance timing of spark plugs 1 and 2 on a combustion process. Moving ignition timing between 1 and 2 spark plug results in a longer and uneven firing of a mixture. The most optimal point in terms of indicated power occurs when ignition is simultaneous for both spark plugs, but so severely separated ignitions are assured that ignition will occur at all speeds and loads of engine. It should be confirmed by a bench experiment of the engine. However, this simulation research enabled us to determine the optimal ignition advance angle to be implemented into the ignition control system. This knowledge allows us to set up the ignition point with two spark plugs to achieve as large power as possible.

Keywords: CFD model, combustion, engine, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 340
495 A Case Study of Determining the Times of Overhauls and the Number of Spare Parts for Repairable Items in Rolling Stocks with Simulation

Authors: Ji Young Lee, Jong Woon Kim

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It is essential to secure high availability of railway vehicles to realize high quality and efficiency of railway service. Once the availability decreased, planned railway service could not be provided or more cars need to be reserved. additional cars need to be purchased or the frequency of railway service could be decreased. Such situation would be a big loss in terms of quality and cost related to railway service. Therefore, we make various efforts to get high availability of railway vehicles. Because it is a big loss to operators, we make various efforts to get high availability of railway vehicles. To secure high availability, the idle time of the vehicle needs to be reduced and the following methods are applied to railway vehicles. First, through modularization design, exchange time for line replaceable units is reduced which makes railway vehicles could be put into the service quickly. Second, to reduce periodic preventive maintenance time, preventive maintenance with short period would be proceeded test oriented to minimize the maintenance time, and reliability is secured through overhauls for each main component. With such design changes for railway vehicles, modularized components are exchanged first at the time of vehicle failure or overhaul so that vehicles could be put into the service quickly and exchanged components are repaired or overhauled. Therefore, spare components are required for any future failures or overhauls. And, as components are modularized and costs for components are high, it is considerably important to get reasonable quantities of spare components. Especially, when a number of railway vehicles were put into the service simultaneously, the time of overhauls come almost at the same time. Thus, for some vehicles, components need to be exchanged and overhauled before appointed overhaul period so that these components could be secured as spare parts for the next vehicle’s component overhaul. For this reason, components overhaul time and spare parts quantities should be decided at the same time. This study deals with the time of overhauls for repairable components of railway vehicles and the calculation of spare parts quantities in consideration of future failure/overhauls. However, as railway vehicles are used according to the service schedule, maintenance work cannot be proceeded after the service was closed thus it is quite difficult to resolve this situation mathematically. In this study, Simulation software system is used in this study for analyzing the time of overhauls for repairable components of railway vehicles and the spare parts for the railway systems.

Keywords: overhaul time, rolling stocks, simulation, spare parts

Procedia PDF Downloads 309
494 Home Made Rice Beer Waste (Choak): A Low Cost Feed for Sustainable Poultry Production

Authors: Vinay Singh, Chandra Deo, Asit Chakrabarti, Lopamudra Sahoo, Mahak Singh, Rakesh Kumar, Dinesh Kumar, H. Bharati, Biswajit Das, V. K. Mishra

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The most widely used feed resources in poultry feed, like maize and soybean, are expensive as well as in short supply. Hence, there is a need to utilize non-conventional feed ingredients to cut down feed costs. As an alternative, brewery by-products like brewers’ dried grains are potential non-conventional feed resources. North-East India is inhabited by many tribes, and most of these tribes prepare their indigenous local brew, mostly using rice grains as the primary substrate. Choak, a homemade rice beer waste, is an excellent and cheap source of protein and other nutrients. Fresh homemade rice beer waste (rice brewer’s grain) was collected locally. The proximate analysis indicated 28.53% crude protein, 92.76% dry matter, 5.02% ether extract, 7.83% crude fibre, 2.85% total ash, 0.67% acid insoluble ash, 0.91% calcium, and 0.55% total phosphorus. A feeding trial with 5 treatments (incorporating rice beer waste at the inclusion levels of 0,10,20,30 & 40% by replacing maize and soybean from basal diet) was conducted with 25 laying hens per treatment for 16 weeks under completely randomized design in order to study the production performance, blood-biochemical parameters, immunity, egg quality and cost economics of laying hens. The results showed substantial variations (P<0.01) in egg production, egg mass, FCR per dozen eggs, FCR per kg egg mass, and net FCR. However, there was not a substantial difference in either body weight or feed intake or in egg weight. Total serum cholesterol reduced significantly (P<0.01) at 40% inclusion of rice beer waste. Additionally, the egg haugh unit grew considerably (P<0.01) when the graded levels of rice beer waste increased. The inclusion of 20% rice brewers dried grain reduced feed cost per kg egg mass and per dozen egg production by Rs. 15.97 and 9.99, respectively. Choak (homemade rice beer waste) can thus be safely incorporated into the diet of laying hens at a 20% inclusion level for better production performance and cost-effectiveness.

Keywords: choak, rice beer waste, laying hen, production performance, cost economics

Procedia PDF Downloads 35
493 Achieving Design-Stage Elemental Cost Planning Accuracy: Case Study of New Zealand

Authors: Johnson Adafin, James O. B. Rotimi, Suzanne Wilkinson, Abimbola O. Windapo

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An aspect of client expenditure management that requires attention is the level of accuracy achievable in design-stage elemental cost planning. This has been a major concern for construction clients and practitioners in New Zealand (NZ). Pre-tender estimating inaccuracies are significantly influenced by the level of risk information available to estimators. Proper cost planning activities should ensure the production of a project’s likely construction costs (initial and final), and subsequent cost control activities should prevent unpleasant consequences of cost overruns, disputes and project abandonment. If risks were properly identified and priced at the design stage, observed variance between design-stage elemental cost plans (ECPs) and final tender sums (FTS) (initial contract sums) could be reduced. This study investigates the variations between design-stage ECPs and FTS of construction projects, with a view to identifying risk factors that are responsible for the observed variance. Data were sourced through interviews, and risk factors were identified by using thematic analysis. Access was obtained to project files from the records of study participants (consultant quantity surveyors), and document analysis was employed in complementing the responses from the interviews. Study findings revealed the discrepancies between ECPs and FTS in the region of -14% and +16%. It is opined in this study that the identified risk factors were responsible for the variability observed. The values obtained from the analysis would enable greater accuracy in the forecast of FTS by Quantity Surveyors. Further, whilst inherent risks in construction project developments are observed globally, these findings have important ramifications for construction projects by expanding existing knowledge on what is needed for reasonable budgetary performance and successful delivery of construction projects. The findings contribute significantly to the study by providing quantitative confirmation to justify the theoretical conclusions generated in the literature from around the world. This therefore adds to and consolidates existing knowledge.

Keywords: accuracy, design-stage, elemental cost plan, final tender sum

Procedia PDF Downloads 240
492 Influence of Transverse Steel and Casting Direction on Shear Response and Ductility of Reinforced Ultra High Performance Concrete Beams

Authors: Timothy E. Frank, Peter J. Amaddio, Elizabeth D. Decko, Alexis M. Tri, Darcy A. Farrell, Cole M. Landes

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Ultra high performance concrete (UHPC) is a class of cementitious composites with a relatively large percentage of cement generating high compressive strength. Additionally, UHPC contains disbursed fibers, which control crack width, carry the tensile load across narrow cracks, and limit spalling. These characteristics lend themselves to a wide range of structural applications when UHPC members are reinforced with longitudinal steel. Efficient use of fibers and longitudinal steel is required to keep lifecycle cost competitive in reinforced UHPC members; this requires full utilization of both the compressive and tensile qualities of the reinforced cementitious composite. The objective of this study is to investigate the shear response of steel-reinforced UHPC beams to guide design decisions that keep initial costs reasonable, limit serviceability crack widths, and ensure a ductile structural response and failure path. Five small-scale, reinforced UHPC beams were experimentally tested. Longitudinal steel, transverse steel, and casting direction were varied. Results indicate that an increase in transverse steel in short-spanned reinforced UHPC beams provided additional shear capacity and increased the peak load achieved. Beams with very large longitudinal steel reinforcement ratios did not achieve yield and fully utilized the tension properties of the longitudinal steel. Casting the UHPC beams from the end or from the middle affected load-carrying capacity and ductility, but image analysis determined the fiber orientation was not significantly different. It is believed the presence of transverse and longitudinal steel reinforcement minimized the effect of different UHPC casting directions. Results support recent recommendations in the literature suggesting a 1% fiber volume fraction is sufficient within UHPC to prevent spalling and provide compressive fracture toughness under extreme loading conditions.

Keywords: fiber orientation, reinforced ultra high performance concrete beams, shear, transverse steel

Procedia PDF Downloads 92
491 Effect of Mindfulness Training on Psychological Well-Being: An Experimental Study Using a Mobile App as Intervention

Authors: Beeto W. C. Leung, Nicole C. Y. Lee

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It was well known that college students experienced a high level of stress and anxiety. College athletes, a special group of college students, may even encounter a higher level of pressure and distress due to their dual endeavors in academic and athletic settings. Due to the high demands and costs of mental health services, easily accessible, web-based self-help interventions are getting more popular. The aim of the present experimental study was to examine the potential intervention effect of a mindfulness-based self-help mobile App, called 'Smiling Mind', on mindfulness and psychological well-being. Forty-six college athletes, recruited from athletic teams of two local universities in Hong Kong, were randomly assigned to the Mindfulness App Group (MAG) and the Control Group (CG). All participants were administered the Mindful Attention Awareness Scale, Geriatric Depression Scale, and Perceived Stress Scale-10 before the study (Time 1, T1) and after the 4-week intervention (Time 2, T2). MAG was requested to use the app and follow the instructions every day for at least 5 days per week. Participants were also asked to record their daily app usage time. Results showed that, for MAG, from T1 to T2, mindfulness has been increased from 3.25 to 3.92; depressive symptoms and stress has been significantly decreased from 8.6 to 5.1 and 24.8 to 13.5 respectively while for the CG, mindfulness has been decreased slightly from 3.29 to 3.13; depressive symptoms and stress has been slightly increased from 7.1 to 7.3 and 24.1 to 27.1 respectively. Three mixed-design ANOVAs with time (T1, T2) as the within-subjects factor and intervention group (MAG, CG) as the between-subjects factor revealed a main effect of time on mindfulness, F(1, 41) = 10.28, p < 0.01, depressive symptoms, F(1, 41) = 6.55, p < 0.02 and stress, F(1, 41) = 16.96, p < 0.001 respectively. Both predicted interaction between time and intervention group on mindfulness, F(1, 41) = 26.6, p < 0.001, ηp 2 =0.39, depressive symptoms, F(1, 41) = 8.00, p < 0.01, ηp 2 =0.16 and Stress F(1, 41) = 49.3, p < 0.001, ηp 2 =0.55 were significant meaning that participants using the Mindfulness Mobile App in the intervention did experienced a significant increase in mindfulness and significant decrease in depressive symptoms and perceived level of stress after the 4-week intervention when compared with the control group. The present study provided encouraging empirical support for using Smiling Mind, a self-help mobile app, to promote mindfulness and mental health in a cost-effective way. Further studies should examine the potential use of Smiling Mind in different samples, including children and adolescence, as well as, investigate the lasting effects of using the app on other psychosocial outcomes such as emotional regulations.

Keywords: college athletes, experimental study, mindfulness mobile apps, psychological well-being

Procedia PDF Downloads 90
490 Cost Overruns in Mega Projects: Project Progress Prediction with Probabilistic Methods

Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

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Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 368
489 Applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Cardiac imaging

Authors: Angelis P. Barlampas

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The purpose of this study is to inform the reader, about the various applications of artificial intelligence (AI), in cardiac imaging. AI grows fast and its role is crucial in medical specialties, which use large amounts of digital data, that are very difficult or even impossible to be managed by human beings and especially doctors.Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to the ability of computers to mimic human cognitive function, performing tasks such as learning, problem-solving, and autonomous decision making based on digital data. Whereas AI describes the concept of using computers to mimic human cognitive tasks, machine learning (ML) describes the category of algorithms that enable most current applications described as AI. Some of the current applications of AI in cardiac imaging are the follows: Ultrasound: Automated segmentation of cardiac chambers across five common views and consequently quantify chamber volumes/mass, ascertain ejection fraction and determine longitudinal strain through speckle tracking. Determine the severity of mitral regurgitation (accuracy > 99% for every degree of severity). Identify myocardial infarction. Distinguish between Athlete’s heart and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, as well as restrictive cardiomyopathy and constrictive pericarditis. Predict all-cause mortality. CT Reduce radiation doses. Calculate the calcium score. Diagnose coronary artery disease (CAD). Predict all-cause 5-year mortality. Predict major cardiovascular events in patients with suspected CAD. MRI Segment of cardiac structures and infarct tissue. Calculate cardiac mass and function parameters. Distinguish between patients with myocardial infarction and control subjects. It could potentially reduce costs since it would preclude the need for gadolinium-enhanced CMR. Predict 4-year survival in patients with pulmonary hypertension. Nuclear Imaging Classify normal and abnormal myocardium in CAD. Detect locations with abnormal myocardium. Predict cardiac death. ML was comparable to or better than two experienced readers in predicting the need for revascularization. AI emerge as a helpful tool in cardiac imaging and for the doctors who can not manage the overall increasing demand, in examinations such as ultrasound, computed tomography, MRI, or nuclear imaging studies.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, cardiac imaging, ultrasound, MRI, CT, nuclear medicine

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488 Identifying Critical Links of a Transport Network When Affected by a Climatological Hazard

Authors: Beatriz Martinez-Pastor, Maria Nogal, Alan O'Connor

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During the last years, the number of extreme weather events has increased. A variety of extreme weather events, including river floods, rain-induced landslides, droughts, winter storms, wildfire, and hurricanes, have threatened and damaged many different regions worldwide. These events have a devastating impact on critical infrastructure systems resulting in high social, economical and environmental costs. These events have a huge impact in transport systems. Since, transport networks are completely exposed to every kind of climatological perturbations, and its performance is closely related with these events. When a traffic network is affected by a climatological hazard, the quality of its service is threatened, and the level of the traffic conditions usually decreases. With the aim of understanding this process, the concept of resilience has become most popular in the area of transport. Transport resilience analyses the behavior of a traffic network when a perturbation takes place. This holistic concept studies the complete process, from the beginning of the perturbation until the total recovery of the system, when the perturbation has finished. Many concepts are included in the definition of resilience, such as vulnerability, redundancy, adaptability, and safety. Once the resilience of a transport network can be evaluated, in this case, the methodology used is a dynamic equilibrium-restricted assignment model that allows the quantification of the concept, the next step is its improvement. Through the improvement of this concept, it will be possible to create transport networks that are able to withstand and have a better performance under the presence of climatological hazards. Analyzing the impact of a perturbation in a traffic network, it is observed that the response of the different links, which are part of the network, can be completely different from one to another. Consequently and due to this effect, many questions arise, as what makes a link more critical before an extreme weather event? or how is it possible to identify these critical links? With this aim, and knowing that most of the times the owners or managers of the transport systems have limited resources, the identification of the critical links of a transport network before extreme weather events, becomes a crucial objective. For that reason, using the available resources in the areas that will generate a higher improvement of the resilience, will contribute to the global development of the network. Therefore, this paper wants to analyze what kind of characteristic makes a link a critical one when an extreme weather event damages a transport network and finally identify them.

Keywords: critical links, extreme weather events, hazard, resilience, transport network

Procedia PDF Downloads 262