Search results for: beta binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution

Authors: Min Wei

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The traditional prediction methods of the forecast for tourism market are paid more attention to the accuracy of the forecasts, ignoring the results of the feasibility of forecasting and predicting operability, which had made it difficult to predict the results of scientific testing. With the application of Linear Regression Model, this paper attempts to construct a scientific evaluation system for predictive value, both to ensure the accuracy, stability of the predicted value, and to ensure the feasibility of forecasting and predicting the results of operation. The findings show is that a scientific evaluation system can implement the scientific concept of development, the harmonious development of man and nature co-ordinate.

Keywords: linear regression model, tourism market, forecast, tourism economics

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Authors: Changyeop Lee, Sewon Kim

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Reburning is a useful technology in reducing nitric oxide through injection of a secondary hydrocarbon fuel. In this paper, an experimental study has been conducted to evaluate the effect of fuel lean reburning on NOx/CO reduction in LNG flame. Experiments were performed in flames stabilized by a co-flow swirl burner, which was mounted at the bottom of the furnace. Tests were conducted using LNG gas as the reburn fuel as well as the main fuel. The effects of reburn fuel fraction and injection manner of the reburn fuel were studied when the fuel lean reburning system was applied. The paper reports data on flue gas emissions and temperature distribution in the furnace for a wide range of experimental conditions. At steady state, temperature distribution and emission formation in the furnace have been measured and compared. This paper makes clear that in order to decrease both NOx and CO concentrations in the exhaust when the pulsated fuel lean reburning system was adapted, it is important that the control of some factors such as frequency and duty ratio. Also it shows the fuel lean reburning is also effective method to reduce NOx as much as reburning.

Keywords: fuel lean reburn, NOx, CO, LNG flame

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Authors: Bello Yusuf Idi

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The Gongola arm of the Upper Banue Trough, Northeastern Nigeria is predominantly covered by the outcrops of Limestone-bearing rocks in form of Sandstone with intercalation of carbonate clay, shale, basaltic, felsphatic and migmatide rocks at subpixel dimension. In this work, subpixel classification algorithm was used to classify the data acquired from landsat 7 Enhance Thematic Mapper (ETM+) satellite system with the aim of producing fractional distribution image for three most economically important solid minerals of the area: Limestone, Basalt and Migmatide. Linear Spectral Unmixing (LSU) algorithm was used to produce fractional distribution image of abundance of the three mineral resources within a 100Km2 portion of the area. The results show that the minerals occur at different proportion all over the area. The fractional map could therefore serve as a guide to the ongoing reconnaissance for the economic potentiality of the formation.

Keywords: linear spectral un-mixing, upper benue trough, gongola arm, geological engineering

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Authors: Sophia Liang Zhou

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For investors, businesses, consumers, and governments, an accurate assessment of future housing prices is crucial to critical decisions in resource allocation, policy formation, and investment strategies. Previous studies are contradictory about macroeconomic determinants of housing price and largely focused on one or two areas using point prediction. This study aims to develop data-driven models to accurately predict future housing market trends in different markets. This work studied five different metropolitan areas representing different market trends and compared three-time lagging situations: no lag, 6-month lag, and 12-month lag. Linear regression (LR), random forest (RF), and artificial neural network (ANN) were employed to model the real estate price using datasets with S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and 12 demographic and macroeconomic features, such as gross domestic product (GDP), resident population, personal income, etc. in five metropolitan areas: Boston, Dallas, New York, Chicago, and San Francisco. The data from March 2005 to December 2018 were collected from the Federal Reserve Bank, FBI, and Freddie Mac. In the original data, some factors are monthly, some quarterly, and some yearly. Thus, two methods to compensate missing values, backfill or interpolation, were compared. The models were evaluated by accuracy, mean absolute error, and root mean square error. The LR and ANN models outperformed the RF model due to RF’s inherent limitations. Both ANN and LR methods generated predictive models with high accuracy ( > 95%). It was found that personal income, GDP, population, and measures of debt consistently appeared as the most important factors. It also showed that technique to compensate missing values in the dataset and implementation of time lag can have a significant influence on the model performance and require further investigation. The best performing models varied for each area, but the backfilled 12-month lag LR models and the interpolated no lag ANN models showed the best stable performance overall, with accuracies > 95% for each city. This study reveals the influence of input variables in different markets. It also provides evidence to support future studies to identify the optimal time lag and data imputing methods for establishing accurate predictive models.

Keywords: linear regression, random forest, artificial neural network, real estate price prediction

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Authors: Mohammad Abu-Shaira, Weishi Shi

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Adaptive learning, a commonly employed solution to drift, involves updating predictive models online during their operation to react to concept drifts, thereby serving as a critical component and natural extension for online learning systems that learn incrementally from each example. This paper introduces LSTM-SCCM “Long Short-Term Memory Stream Cruise Control Method”, a drift adaptation-as-a-service framework for online learning. LSTM-SCCM automates drift adaptation through prompt detection, drift magnitude quantification, dynamic hyperparameter tuning, performing shortterm optimization and model recalibration for immediate adjustments, and, when necessary, conducting long-term model recalibration to ensure deeper enhancements in model performance. LSTM-SCCM is incorporated into a suite of cutting-edge online regression models, assessing their performance across various types of concept drift using diverse datasets with varying characteristics. The findings demonstrate that LSTM-SCCM represents a notable advancement in both model performance and efficacy in handling concept drift occurrences. LSTM-SCCM stands out as the sole framework adept at effectively tackling concept drifts within regression scenarios. Its proactive approach to drift adaptation distinguishes it from conventional reactive methods, which typically rely on retraining after significant degradation to model performance caused by drifts. Additionally, LSTM-SCCM employs an in-memory approach combined with the Self-Adjusting Memory (SAM) architecture to enhance real-time processing and adaptability. The framework incorporates variable thresholding techniques and does not assume any particular data distribution, making it an ideal choice for managing high-dimensional datasets and efficiently handling large-scale data. Our experiments, which include abrupt, incremental, and gradual drifts across both low- and high-dimensional datasets with varying noise levels, and applied to four state-of-the-art online regression models, demonstrate that LSTM-SCCM is versatile and effective, rendering it a valuable solution for online regression models to address concept drift.

Keywords: automated drift detection and adaptation, concept drift, hyperparameters optimization, online and adaptive learning, regression

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Authors: M. M. Akhmediev, J. R. Ashrapov, T. M. Akhmediev

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Hydrocephalus frequently occurs with spina bifida, and up to 80% of such patients need to be shunted. Objective: It’s sought to improve the results of the surgical treatment of hydrocephalus in children with spina bifida. Methods: We have analyzed the results of the surgical treatment of 80 patients aged between 1 month and 1,5-year-old with hydrocephalus and myelomeningocele. All patients underwent surgery in the period of 2013-2018. Results: In all patients, spina bifida was associated with hydrocephalus with a predominant extension of the posterior horns of the lateral ventricles in the form of colpocephaly, Chiari malformation type 2. Based on the method “Choose right shunt” the determination of the point of critical deformation of the ventricular system was established, 47 (58.8%) patients for the 1st stage underwent ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt surgery with a low-pressure valve, 28 (35.0%) patients with medium pressure and 5 (6.2%) with high-pressure valve. Under or over drainage complications were not observed in the postoperative period. The 2nd stage of surgery for myelomeningocele repair was planned in 1-2 months with the follow-up head ultrasonography and electromyography study. Conclusion: The implantable shunt systems parameters chosen before surgery in the surgical management of hydrocephalus in children with myelomeningocele are important in the causes of under or over drainage states, cerebrospinal fluid leakage from the myelomeningocele sac. Management of hydrocephalus should be performed by considering myelomeningocele affecting craniospinal compliance.

Keywords: hydrocephalus, spina bifida, myelomeningocele, ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt

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Authors: Shafiqul Islam, Cordia Chu

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Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate related disasters such as flood and cyclone. Exploring from the semi-structured in-depth interviews of 38 stakeholders and literature review, this study examined the public spending distribution process in DRR. This paper demonstrates how the processes of political economy-enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment hinder the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) efforts of Department of Disaster Management (DDM) such as distribution of flood centres, cyclone centres and 40 days employment generation programs. Enclosure refers to when DRR projects allocated to less vulnerable areas or expand the roles of influencing actors into the public sphere. Exclusion refers to when DRR projects limit affected people’s access to resources or marginalize particular stakeholders in decision-making activities. Encroachment refers to when allocation of DRR projects and selection of location and issues degrade the environmental affect or contribute to other forms of disaster risk. Entrenchment refers to when DRR projects aggravate the disempowerment of common people worsen the concentrations of wealth and income inequality within a community. In line with United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Hyogo and Sendai Frameworks, in the case of Bangladesh, DRR policies implemented under the country’s national five-year plan, disaster-related acts and rules. These policies and practices have somehow enabled influential-elites to mobilize and distribute resources through bureaucracies. Exclusionary forms of fund distribution of DRR exist at both the national and local scales. DRR related allocations have encroached through the low land areas development project without consulting local needs. Most severely, DRR related unequal allocations have entrenched social class trapping the backward communities vulnerable to climate related disasters. Planners and practitioners of DRR need to take necessary steps to eliminate the potential risks from the processes of enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment happens in project fund allocations.

Keywords: Bangladesh, disaster risk reduction, fund distribution, political economy

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Authors: Tibor Ajtai, Noémi Utry, Máté Pintér, Gábor Szabó, Zoltán Bozóki

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Beyond its climate and health related issues ambient light absorbing carbonaceous particulate matter (LAC) has also become a great scientific interest in terms of its regulations recently. It has been experimentally demonstrated in recent studies, that LAC is dominantly composed of traffic and wood burning aerosol particularly under wintertime urban conditions, when the photochemical and biological activities are negligible. Several methods have been introduced to quantitatively apportion aerosol fractions emitted by wood burning and traffic but most of them require costly and time consuming off-line chemical analysis. As opposed to chemical features, the microphysical properties of airborne particles such as optical absorption and size distribution can be easily measured on-line, with high accuracy and sensitivity, especially under highly polluted urban conditions. Recently a new method has been proposed for the apportionment of wood burning and traffic aerosols based on the spectral dependence of their absorption quantified by the Aerosol Angström Exponent (AAE). In this approach the absorption coefficient is deduced from transmission measurement on a filter accumulated aerosol sample and the conversion factor between the measured optical absorption and the corresponding mass concentration (the specific absorption cross section) are determined by on-site chemical analysis. The recently developed multi-wavelength photoacoustic instruments provide novel, in-situ approach towards the reliable and quantitative characterization of carbonaceous particulate matter. Therefore, it also opens up novel possibilities on the source apportionment through the measurement of light absorption. In this study, we demonstrate an in-situ spectral characterization method of the ambient carbon fraction based on light absorption and size distribution measurements using our state-of-the-art multi-wavelength photoacoustic instrument (4λ-PAS) and Single Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) The carbonaceous particulate selective source apportionment study was performed for ambient particulate matter in the city center of Szeged, Hungary where the dominance of traffic and wood burning aerosol has been experimentally demonstrated earlier. The proposed model is based on the parallel, in-situ measurement of optical absorption and size distribution. AAEff and AAEwb were deduced from the measured data using the defined correlation between the AOC(1064nm)/AOC(266nm) and N100/N20 ratios. σff(λ) and σwb(λ) were determined with the help of the independently measured temporal mass concentrations in the PM1 mode. Furthermore, the proposed optical source apportionment is based on the assumption that the light absorbing fraction of PM is exclusively related to traffic and wood burning. This assumption is indirectly confirmed here by the fact that the measured size distribution is composed of two unimodal size distributions identified to correspond to traffic and wood burning aerosols. The method offers the possibility of replacing laborious chemical analysis with simple in-situ measurement of aerosol size distribution data. The results by the proposed novel optical absorption based source apportionment method prove its applicability whenever measurements are performed at an urban site where traffic and wood burning are the dominant carbonaceous sources of emission.

Keywords: absorption, size distribution, source apportionment, wood burning, traffic aerosol

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Authors: Farrukh Jamil, Ala'a H. Al-Muhtaseb, Lamya Al-Haj, Mohab A. Al-Hinai

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Glycerol is considered as high boiling polar triol and immiscible with fossil fuel fractions due to which it is transformed into its respective ketals and acetals which help to improve the quality of diesel emitting less amount of aldehydes and carbon monoxide. Solketal visual appearance is transparent, and it is odorless organic liquid used as a fuel additive for diesel to improve its cold flow properties. Condensation of bio-glycerol with bio-acetone in presence of beta zeolite has been done for synthesizing solketal. It was observed that glycerol conversion and selectivity of solketal was largely effected by temperature, as it increases from 40 ºC to 60 ºC the conversion of glycerol rises from 80.04 % to 94.26 % and selectivity of solketal from 80.0 % to 94.21 % but further increase in temperature to 100 ºC glycerol conversion reduced to 93.06 % and solketal selectivity to 92.08 %. At the optimum conditions, the bio-glycerol conversion and solketal yield were about 94.26% and 94.21wt% respectively. This process offers an attractive route for converting bio-glycerol, the main by-product of biodiesel to solketal with bio-acetone; a value-added green product with potential industrial applications as a valuable green fuel additive or combustion promoter for gasoline/diesel engines.

Keywords: bio-glycerol, catalyst, green additive, biomass

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Authors: Sunday B. Alabi, Edikan P. Felix, Aniediong M. Umo

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Crystal size distribution is of great importance in the sugar factories. It determines the market value of granulated sugar and also influences the cost of production of sugar crystals. Typically, sugar is produced using fed-batch vacuum evaporative crystallizer. The crystallization quality is examined by crystal size distribution at the end of the process which is quantified by two parameters: the average crystal size of the distribution in the mean aperture (MA) and the width of the distribution of the coefficient of variation (CV). Lack of real-time measurement of the sugar crystal size hinders its feedback control and eventual optimisation of the crystallization process. An attractive alternative is to use a soft sensor (model-based method) for online estimation of the sugar crystal size. Unfortunately, the available models for sugar crystallization process are not suitable as they do not contain variables that can be measured easily online. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a regression model for estimating the sugar crystal size as a function of input variables which are easy to measure online. This has the potential to provide real-time estimates of crystal size for its effective feedback control. Using 7 input variables namely: initial crystal size (Lo), temperature (T), vacuum pressure (P), feed flowrate (Ff), steam flowrate (Fs), initial super-saturation (S0) and crystallization time (t), preliminary studies were carried out using Minitab 14 statistical software. Based on the existing sugar crystallizer models, and the typical ranges of these 7 input variables, 128 datasets were obtained from a 2-level factorial experimental design. These datasets were used to obtain a simple but online-implementable 6-input crystal size model. It seems the initial crystal size (Lₒ) does not play a significant role. The goodness of the resulting regression model was evaluated. The coefficient of determination, R² was obtained as 0.994, and the maximum absolute relative error (MARE) was obtained as 4.6%. The high R² (~1.0) and the reasonably low MARE values are an indication that the model is able to predict sugar crystal size accurately as a function of the 6 easy-to-measure online variables. Thus, the model can be used as a soft sensor to provide real-time estimates of sugar crystal size during sugar crystallization process in a fed-batch vacuum evaporative crystallizer.

Keywords: crystal size, regression model, soft sensor, sugar, vacuum evaporative crystallizer

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang, Georgianna Duarte

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This study investigated the attention problems with the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). Two thousand eight hundred and ninety-four adolescents were surveyed by using a stratified sampling method. We examined the relationships between relevant background variables and attention problems. Multiple regression models were applied to analyze the data. Relevant variables such as sports activities, hobbies, age, grade and the number of close friends were included in this study as predictive variables. The analysis results indicated that educational environments and extracurricular activities are important factors which influence students’ attention problems.

Keywords: adolescents, ASEBA, attention problems, educational environments, stratified sampling

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Authors: Taher M. Abou-deif, Esmail M. El-Bialy, Essam E. Khalil

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The paper is devoted to numerically investigating the influence of the air supply outlets geometry on human comfort inside living looms. A computational fluid dynamics model is developed to examine the air flow characteristics of a room with different supply air diffusers. The work focuses on air flow patterns, thermal behavior in the room with few number of occupants. As an input to the full-scale 3-D room model, a 2-D air supply diffuser model that supplies direction and magnitude of air flow into the room is developed. Air distribution effect on thermal comfort parameters was investigated depending on changing the air supply diffusers type, angles and velocity. Air supply diffusers locations and numbers were also investigated. The pre-processor Gambit is used to create the geometric model with parametric features. Commercially available simulation software “Fluent 6.3” is incorporated to solve the differential equations governing the conservation of mass, three momentum and energy in the processing of air flow distribution. Turbulence effects of the flow are represented by the well-developed two equation turbulence model. In this work, the so-called standard k-ε turbulence model, one of the most widespread turbulence models for industrial applications, was utilized. Basic parameters included in this work are air dry bulb temperature, air velocity, relative humidity and turbulence parameters are used for numerical predictions of indoor air distribution and thermal comfort. The thermal comfort predictions through this work were based on ADPI (Air Diffusion Performance Index),the PMV (Predicted Mean Vote) model and the PPD (Percentage People Dissatisfied) model, the PMV and PPD were estimated using Fanger’s model.

Keywords: thermal comfort, Fanger's model, ADPI, energy effeciency

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Authors: Adrian O'Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

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Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient

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Authors: Foad Alzoughool

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Conflicting studies on the association between the rs5219 polymorphism and type 2 diabetes, some studies have confirmed a strong relationship between this variant and type2 diabetes, on the other hand, many studies denied the existence of this association. This study aimed to provide evidence about whether the rs5219 polymorphism has or hasn't a role as a risk factor for diabetes and meta-analysis to investigate the role of the control age group in the association. Genotyping of the rs5219 polymorphism was performed in a cohort of 266 healthy elderly subjects with a mean age (60.2 ± 5.1) with no history of diabetes (HbA1c < 6%) using standard Sanger sequencing methods. Lys/Lys alleles were detected in 20 persons (7.5%), Lys/Glu alleles in 96 persons (36.1%), and Glu/Glu in 150 persons (56.4%). The genotype distribution was consistent with Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium (P =0.7). Meta-analysis notably indicates no association between rs5219 polymorphism and type 2 diabetes in all studies used the younger age of the control group compared to the patient's age. In conclusion, our study sheds light on the importance of age factor among the control group recruited in case-control studies.

Keywords: Type 2 diabetes, rs5219 polymorphism, E23K, KCNJ11 gene

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Authors: Nicolás Clavijo Buriticá, Laura Viviana Triana Sanchez

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This research develops a productive context associated with the aquaculture industry in northern Tolima-Colombia, specifically in the town of Lerida. Strategic aspects of chain of fish Production-Distribution, especially those related to supply network design of an association devoted to cultivating, farming, processing and marketing of fish are addressed. This research is addressed from a special approach of Supply Chain Management (SCM) which guides management objectives to the system sustainability; this approach is called Sustainable Supply Chain Management (SSCM). The network design of fish production-distribution system is obtained for the case study by two mathematical programming models that aims to maximize the economic benefits of the chain and minimize total supply chain costs, taking into account restrictions to protect the environment and its implications on system productivity. The results of the mathematical models validated in the productive situation of the partnership under study, called Asopiscinorte shows the variation in the number of open or closed locations in the supply network that determines the final network configuration. This proposed result generates for the case study an increase of 31.5% in the partial productivity of storage and processing, in addition to possible favorable long-term implications, such as attending an agile or not a consumer area, increase or not the level of sales in several areas, to meet in quantity, time and cost of work in progress and finished goods to various actors in the chain.

Keywords: Sustainable Supply Chain, mathematical programming, aquaculture industry, Supply Chain Design, Supply Chain Configuration

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Authors: Reni M. Sagayaraj, Anand Gnana S. Selvam, Reynald R. Susainathan

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In this paper, we consider stochastic queueing models for Steady-state behavior of a multi-phase M/M/1 queue in random evolution subject to catastrophe failure. The arrival flow of customers is described by a marked Markovian arrival process. The service times of different type customers have a phase-type distribution with different parameters. To facilitate the investigation of the system we use a generalized phase-type service time distribution. This model contains a repair state, when a catastrophe occurs the system is transferred to the failure state. The paper focuses on the steady-state equation, and observes that, the steady-state behavior of the underlying queueing model along with the average queue size is analyzed.

Keywords: M/G/1 queuing system, multi-phase, random evolution, steady-state equation, catastrophe failure

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Authors: Ryeong-Hyeon Kim, Ah-Reum Lee, Seong-Soo Roh, Gyo-Nam Kim

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Appropriate regulation of melanogenesis is important for the management of skin pigmentation-related disease. Although several beneficial effects of fisetin (3,7,3’,4’-tetrahydroxyflavone) have been reported, the precise role and molecular mechanisms of fisetin in skin health both remain unclear. Here, we induced melanogenesis of HRM2 mice (n=7/group) by UVB irradiation for 20 days. UVB-induced HRM2 mice showed that the significantly increased melanin accumulation, however, fisetin treatment (25mg and 50mg/kg of body weight) dose-dependently and significantly inhibits UVB-induced melanogenesis. In line with this, fisetin treatment effectively down-regulated m RNA and expression levels of tyrosinase, TRP2, and MITF. In addition, our inhibitor assay revealed the down-regulated melanogenic marker genes by fisetin treatment were mediated with connective tissue growth factor (CCN2)/TGF-β signaling pathway. Useful information is provided for development of functional foods using fisetin for skin health.

Keywords: connective tissue growth factor, fisetin, melanogenesis, skin, TGF-beta

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Authors: Ahmed H. Amer, A. Amar, Sh. Hamada, I. I. Bondouk, F. A. El-Hussiny

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Elastic scattering of α-particles from 9Be and 11B nuclei at different alpha energies have been analyzed. Optical model parameters (OMPs) of α-particles elastic scattering by these nuclei at different energies have been obtained. In the present calculations, the real part of the optical potential are derived by folding of nucleon-nucleon (NN) interaction into nuclear matter density distribution of the projectile and target nuclei using computer code FRESCO. A density-dependent version of the M3Y interaction (CDM3Y6), which is based on the G-matrix elements of the Paris NN potential, has been used. Volumetric integrals of the real and imaginary potential depth (JR, JW) have been calculated and found to be energy dependent. Good agreement between the experimental data and the theoretical predictions in the whole angular range. In double folding (DF) calculations, the obtained normalization coefficient Nr is in the range 0.70–1.32.

Keywords: elastic scattering, optical model, double folding model, density distribution

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Authors: Gulcan Ozerim, Gunay Anlas

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In shape memory alloys, upon loading, stress increases around crack tip and a martensitic phase transformation occurs in early stages. In many studies the stress distribution in the vicinity of the crack tip is represented by using linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) although the pseudo-elastic behavior results in a nonlinear stress-strain relation. In this study, the HRR singularity (Hutchinson, Rice and Rosengren), that uses Rice’s path independent J-integral, is tried to formulate the stress distribution around the crack tip. In HRR approach, the Ramberg-Osgood model for the stress-strain relation of power-law hardening materials is used to represent the elastic-plastic behavior. Although it is recoverable, the inelastic portion of the deformation in martensitic transformation (up to the end of transformation) resembles to that of plastic deformation. To determine the constants of the Ramberg-Osgood equation, the material’s response is simulated in ABAQUS using a UMAT based on ZM (Zaki-Moumni) thermo-mechanically coupled model, and the stress-strain curve of the material is plotted. An edge cracked shape memory alloy (Nitinol) plate is loaded quasi-statically under mode I and modeled using ABAQUS; the opening stress values ahead of the cracked tip are calculated. The stresses are also evaluated using the asymptotic equations of both LEFM and HRR. The results show that in the transformation zone around the crack tip, the stress values are much better represented when the HRR singularity is used although the J-integral does not show path independent behavior. For the nodes very close to the crack tip, the HRR singularity is not valid due to the non-proportional loading effect and high-stress values that go beyond the transformation finish stress.

Keywords: crack, HRR singularity, shape memory alloys, stress distribution

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Authors: Abeer M. Algeblawi

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Fifteen isolates of Agrobacterium tumefaciens were obtained from crown gall samples collected from six locations (Tripoli, Alzahra, Ain-Zara, Alzawia, Alazezia in Libya) from Grape (Vitis vinifera L.), Pear (Pyrus communis L.), Peach (Prunus persica L.) and Alexandria in Egypt from Guava (Psidium guajava L.) trees, Artichoke (Cynara cardunculus L.) and Sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.). Total DNA was extracted from the eight isolates as well as the identification of six isolates used into Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) analysis and Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique were used. High similarity (55.5%) was observed among the eight A. tumefaciens isolates (Agro1, Agro2, Agro3, Agro4, Agro5, Agro6, Agro7, and Agro8). The PCR amplification products were resulting from the use of two specific primers (virD2A-virD2C). Analysis induction six isolates of A. tumefaciens obtained from different hosts. A visible band was specific to A. tumefaciens of (220 bp, 224 bp) and 338 bp produced with total DNA extracted from bacterial cells.

Keywords: Agrobacterium tumefaciens, crown gall, identification, molecular characterization, PCR, RAPD

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Authors: Benjamin J. Kuo, Silvia D. Vaca, Joao Ricardo Nickenig Vissoci, Catherine A. Staton, Linda Xu, Michael Muhumuza, Hussein Ssenyonjo, John Mukasa, Joel Kiryabwire, Lydia Nanjula, Christine Muhumuza, Henry E. Rice, Gerald A. Grant, Michael M. Haglund

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Background: Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is disproportionally concentrated in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with the odds of dying from TBI in Uganda more than 4 times higher than in high income countries (HICs). The disparities in the injury incidence and outcome between LMICs and resource-rich settings have led to increased health outcomes research for TBIs and their associated risk factors in LMICs. While there have been increasing TBI studies in LMICs over the last decade, there is still a need for more robust prospective registries. In Uganda, a trauma registry implemented in 2004 at the Mulago National Referral Hospital (MNRH) showed that RTI is the major contributor (60%) of overall mortality in the casualty department. While the prior registry provides information on injury incidence and burden, it’s limited in scope and doesn’t follow patients longitudinally throughout their hospital stay nor does it focus specifically on TBIs. And although these retrospective analyses are helpful for benchmarking TBI outcomes, they make it hard to identify specific quality improvement initiatives. The relationship among epidemiology, patient risk factors, clinical care, and TBI outcomes are still relatively unknown at MNRH. Objective: The objectives of this study are to describe the processes of care and determine risk factors predictive of poor outcomes for TBI patients presenting to a single tertiary hospital in Uganda. Methods: Prospective data were collected for 563 TBI patients presenting to a tertiary hospital in Kampala from 1 June – 30 November 2016. Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap) was used to systematically collect variables spanning 8 categories. Univariate and multivariate analysis were conducted to determine significant predictors of mortality. Results: 563 TBI patients were enrolled from 1 June – 30 November 2016. 102 patients (18%) received surgery, 29 patients (5.1%) intended for surgery failed to receive it, and 251 patients (45%) received non-operative management. Overall mortality was 9.6%, which ranged from 4.7% for mild and moderate TBI to 55% for severe TBI patients with GCS 3-5. Within each TBI severity category, mortality differed by management pathway. Variables predictive of mortality were TBI severity, more than one intracranial bleed, failure to receive surgery, high dependency unit admission, ventilator support outside of surgery, and hospital arrival delayed by more than 4 hours. Conclusions: The overall mortality rate of 9.6% in Uganda for TBI is high, and likely underestimates the true TBI mortality. Furthermore, the wide-ranging mortality (3-82%), high ICU fatality, and negative impact of care delays suggest shortcomings with the current triaging practices. Lack of surgical intervention when needed was highly predictive of mortality in TBI patients. Further research into the determinants of surgical interventions, quality of step-up care, and prolonged care delays are needed to better understand the complex interplay of variables that affect patient outcome. These insights guide the development of future interventions and resource allocation to improve patient outcomes.

Keywords: care continuum, global neurosurgery, Kampala Uganda, LMIC, Mulago, prospective registry, traumatic brain injury

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Authors: Sheng-Bo Zhang, Huan-Hao Zhang, Zhi-Hua Chen, Chun Zheng

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In this paper, the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability has been studied numerically by using the high-resolution Roe scheme based on the two-dimensional unsteady Euler equation, which was caused by the interaction between shock wave and the helium circular light gas cylinder with different component distributions. The numerical results further discuss the deformation process of the gas cylinder, the wave structure of the flow field and quantitatively analyze the characteristic dimensions (length, height, and central axial width) of the gas cylinder, the volume compression ratio of the cylinder over time. In addition, the flow mechanism of shock-driven interface gas mixing is analyzed from multiple perspectives by combining it with the flow field pressure, velocity, circulation, and gas mixing rate. Then the effects of different initial component distribution conditions on interface instability are investigated. The results show when the diffusion interface transit to the sharp interface, the reflection coefficient gradually increases on both sides of the interface. When the incident shock wave interacts with the cylinder, the transmission of the shock wave will transit from conventional transmission to unconventional transmission. At the same time, the reflected shock wave is gradually strengthened, and the transmitted shock wave is gradually weakened, which leads to an increase in the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability. Moreover, the Atwood number on both sides of the interface also increases as the diffusion interface transit to the sharp interface, which leads to an increase in the Rayleigh-Taylor instability and the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. Therefore, the increase in instability will lead to an increase the circulation, resulting in an increase in the growth rate of gas mixing rate.

Keywords: shock wave, He light cylinder, Richtmyer-Meshkov instability, Gaussian distribution

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Authors: Bogusław Schreyer

Abstract:

The paper enquires on the two methods of the wheeled robot braking torque control. Those two methods are applied when the adhesion coefficient under left side wheels is different from the adhesion coefficient under the right side wheels. In case of the select-low (SL) method the braking torque on both wheels is controlled by the signals originating from the wheels on the side of the lower adhesion. In the select-high (SH) method the torque is controlled by the signals originating from the wheels on the side of the higher adhesion. The SL method is securing stable and secure robot behaviors during the braking process. However, the efficiency of this method is relatively low. The SH method is more efficient in terms of time and braking distance but in some situations may cause wheels blocking. It is important to monitor the velocity of all wheels and then take a decision about the braking torque distribution accordingly. In case of the SH method the braking torque slope may require significant decrease in order to avoid wheel blocking.

Keywords: select-high, select-low, torque distribution, wheeled robots

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Authors: Jawharah Alasmari

Abstract:

In verb inflection, tense marks past/present/future action, and aspect marks progressive/continues perfect/completed actions. This usage and meaning of tense and aspect differ in Arabic and English. In this research, we applied data mining methods to test the predictive function of candidate features by using our dataset of Arabic verbs in-context, and their 7 translations. Weka machine learning classifiers is used in this experiment in order to examine the key features that can be used to provide guidance to enable a translator’s appropriate English translation of the Arabic verb tense and aspect.

Keywords: Arabic verb, English translations, mining methods, Weka software

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: Vivek Upadhayay, Siddharth Deshmukh

Abstract:

In recent years utilization of renewable energy sources has increased majorly because of the increase in global warming concerns. Organization these days are generally operated by Micro grid or smart grid on a small level. Power optimization and optimal load tripping is possible in a smart grid based industry. In any plant or industry loads can be divided into different categories based on their importance to the plant and power requirement pattern in the working days. Coming up with an idea to divide loads in different such categories and providing different power management algorithm to each category of load can reduce the power cost and can come handy in balancing stability and reliability of power. An objective function is defined which is subjected to a variable that we are supposed to minimize. Constraint equations are formed taking difference between the power usages pattern of present day and same day of previous week. By considering the objectives of minimal load tripping and optimal power distribution the proposed problem formulation is a multi-object optimization problem. Through normalization of each objective function, the multi-objective optimization is transformed to single-objective optimization. As a result we are getting the optimized values of power required to each load for present day by use of the past values of the required power for the same day of last week. It is quite a demand response scheduling of power. These minimized values then will be distributed to each load through an algorithm used to optimize the power distribution at a greater depth. In case of power storage exceeding the power requirement, profit can be made by selling exceeding power to the main grid.

Keywords: power flow optimization, power trading enhancement, smart grid, multi-object optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 525

Authors: Wannee Sutthachaidee

Abstract:

The study of the production process of coconut-shell product in Amphawa, Samutsongkram Province is objected to study the pattern of the process of coconut-shell product by focusing in the 3 main processes which are inbound logistics process, production process and outbound process. The result of the research: There were 4 main results from the study. Firstly, most of the manufacturer of coconut-shell product is usually owned by a single owner and the quantity of the finished product is quite low and the main labor group is local people. Secondly, the production process can be divided into 4 stages which are pre-production process, production process, packaging process and distribution process. Thirdly, each 3 of the logistics process of coconut shell will find process which may cause the problem to the business but the process which finds the most problem is the production process because the production process needs the skilled labor and the quantity of the labor does not match with the demand from the customers. Lastly, the factors which affect the production process of the coconut shell can be founded in almost every process of the process such as production design, packaging design, sourcing supply and distribution management.

Keywords: production process, coconut-shell product, Amphawa District, inbound logistics process

Procedia PDF Downloads 523

Authors: M. Münch, R. Brandt

Abstract:

Martensitic steels with an ultimate tensile strength beyond 2000 MPa are applied in the powertrain of vehicles due to their excellent fatigue strength and high creep resistance. However, the creep controlling mechanism in martensitic steels at ambient temperatures up to 423 K is not evident. The purpose of this study is to review the low temperature creep (LTC) behavior of martensitic steels at temperatures from 363 K to 523 K. Thus, the validity of a logarithmic creep law is reviewed and the stress and temperature dependence of the creep parameters α and β are revealed. Furthermore, creep tests are carried out, which include stepped changes in temperature or stress, respectively. On one hand, the change of the creep rate due to a temperature step provides information on the magnitude of the activation energy of the LTC controlling mechanism and on the other hand, the stress step approach provides information on the magnitude of the activation volume. The magnitude, the temperature dependency, and the stress dependency of both material specific activation parameters may deliver a significant contribution to the disclosure of the nature of the LTC rate controlling mechanism.

Keywords: activation parameters, creep mechanisms, high strength steels, low temperature creep

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Authors: Mansoureh Zangiabadi, Shamil Velji, Rajendra Kelkar, Neal Wade, Volker Pickert

Abstract:

The EU has set itself a long-term goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% of the 1990 levels by 2050 as set in the Energy Roadmap 2050. This paper reports on the European Union H2020 funded E-Lobster project which demonstrates tools and technologies, software and hardware in integrating the grid distribution, and the railway power systems with power electronics technologies (Smart Soft Open Point - sSOP) and local energy storage. In this context this paper describes the existing policies and regulatory frameworks of the energy market at European level with a special focus then at National level, on the countries where the members of the consortium are located, and where the demonstration activities will be implemented. By taking into account the disciplinary approach of E-Lobster, the main policy areas investigated includes electricity, energy market, energy efficiency, transport and smart cities. Energy storage will play a key role in enabling the EU to develop a low-carbon electricity system. In recent years, Energy Storage System (ESSs) are gaining importance due to emerging applications, especially electrification of the transportation sector and grid integration of volatile renewables. The need for storage systems led to ESS technologies performance improvements and significant price decline. This allows for opening a new market where ESSs can be a reliable and economical solution. One such emerging market for ESS is R+G management which will be investigated and demonstrated within E-Lobster project. The surplus of energy in one type of power system (e.g., due to metro braking) might be directly transferred to the other power system (or vice versa). However, it would usually happen at unfavourable instances when the recipient does not need additional power. Thus, the role of ESS is to enhance advantages coming from interconnection of the railway power systems and distribution grids by offering additional energy buffer. Consequently, the surplus/deficit of energy in, e.g. railway power systems, is not to be immediately transferred to/from the distribution grid but it could be stored and used when it is really needed. This will assure better energy management exchange between the railway power systems and distribution grids and lead to more efficient loss reduction. In this framework, to identify the existing policies and regulatory frameworks is crucial for the project activities and for the future development of business models for the E-Lobster solutions. The projections carried out by the European Commission, the Member States and stakeholders and their analysis indicated some trends, challenges, opportunities and structural changes needed to design the policy measures to provide the appropriate framework for investors. This study will be used as reference for the discussion in the envisaged workshops with stakeholders (DSOs and Transport Managers) in the E-Lobster project.

Keywords: light railway, electrical distribution network, Electrical Energy Storage, policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Judith Stein, Elfriede Friedmann

Abstract:

The injection of a drug into the vitreous body for the treatment of retinal diseases like wet aged-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the most common medical intervention worldwide. We develop mathematical models for drug transport in the vitreous body of a human eye to analyse the impact of different rheological models of the vitreous on drug distribution. In addition to the convection diffusion equation characterizing the drug spreading, we use porous media modeling for the healthy vitreous with a dense collagen network and include the steady permeating flow of the aqueous humor described by Darcy's law driven by a pressure drop. Additionally, the vitreous body in a healthy human eye behaves like a viscoelastic gel through the collagen fibers suspended in the network of hyaluronic acid and acts as a drug depot for the treatment of retinal diseases. In a completely liquefied vitreous, we couple the drug diffusion with the classical Navier-Stokes flow equations. We prove the global existence and uniqueness of the weak solution of the developed initial-boundary value problem describing the drug distribution in the healthy vitreous considering the permeating aqueous humor flow in the realistic three-dimensional setting. In particular, for the drug diffusion equation, results from the literature are extended from homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions to our mixed boundary conditions that describe the eye with the Galerkin's method using Cauchy-Schwarz inequality and trace theorem. Because there is only a small effective drug concentration range and higher concentrations may be toxic, the ability to model the drug transport could improve the therapy by considering patient individual differences and give a better understanding of the physiological and pathological processes in the vitreous.

Keywords: coupled PDE systems, drug diffusion, mixed boundary conditions, vitreous body

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Yasaman Tohidi, Shidvash Vakilipour, Saeed Ebadi Tavallaee, Shahin Vakilipoor Takaloo, Hossein Amiri

Abstract:

The numerical modeling is performed to study the effects of N₂ addition to the fuel stream on the flame structure and temperature distribution of methane-air swirl diffusion flames with different swirl intensities. The Open source Field Operation and Manipulation (OpenFOAM) has been utilized as the computational tool. Flamelet approach along with modified k-ε model is employed to model the flame characteristics.  The results indicate that the presence of N₂ in the fuel stream leads to the flame temperature reduction. By increasing of swirl intensity, the flame structure changes significantly. The flame has a conical shape in low swirl intensity; however, it has an hour glass-shape with a shorter length in high swirl intensity. The effects of N₂ dilution decrease the flame length in all swirl intensities; however, the rate of reduction is more noticeable in low swirl intensity.

Keywords: swirl diffusion flame, N2 dilution, OpenFOAM, swirl intensity

Procedia PDF Downloads 169