Search results for: fused deposition modeling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4769

Search results for: fused deposition modeling

3179 Numerical Investigation of Pressure Drop in Core Annular Horizontal Pipe Flow

Authors: John Abish, Bibin John

Abstract:

Liquid-liquid flow in horizontal pipe is investigated in order to reveal the flow patterns arising from the co-existed flow of oil and water. The main focus of the study is to identify the feasibility of reducing the pumping power requirements of petroleum transportation lines by having an annular flow of water around the thick oil core. This idea makes oil transportation cheaper and easier. The present study uses computational fluid dynamics techniques to model oil-water flows with liquids of similar density and varying viscosity. The simulation of the flow is conducted using commercial package Ansys Fluent. Flow domain modeling and grid generation accomplished through ICEM CFD. The horizontal pipe is modeled with two different inlets and meshed with O-Grid mesh. The standard k-ε turbulence scheme along with the volume of fluid (VOF) multiphase modeling method is used to simulate the oil-water flow. Transient flow simulations carried out for a total period of 30s showed significant reduction in pressure drop while employing core annular flow concept. This study also reveals the effect of viscosity ratio, mass flow rates of individual fluids and ration of superficial velocities on the pressure drop across the pipe length. Contours of velocity and volume fractions are employed along with pressure predictions to assess the effectiveness of this proposed concept quantitatively as well as qualitatively. The outcome of the present study is found to be very relevant for the petrochemical industries.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, core-annular flows, frictional flow resistance, oil transportation, pressure drop

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3178 Modeling Breathable Particulate Matter Concentrations over Mexico City Retrieved from Landsat 8 Satellite Imagery

Authors: Rodrigo T. Sepulveda-Hirose, Ana B. Carrera-Aguilar, Magnolia G. Martinez-Rivera, Pablo de J. Angeles-Salto, Carlos Herrera-Ventosa

Abstract:

In order to diminish health risks, it is of major importance to monitor air quality. However, this process is accompanied by the high costs of physical and human resources. In this context, this research is carried out with the main objective of developing a predictive model for concentrations of inhalable particles (PM10-2.5) using remote sensing. To develop the model, satellite images, mainly from Landsat 8, of the Mexico City’s Metropolitan Area were used. Using historical PM10 and PM2.5 measurements of the RAMA (Automatic Environmental Monitoring Network of Mexico City) and through the processing of the available satellite images, a preliminary model was generated in which it was possible to observe critical opportunity areas that will allow the generation of a robust model. Through the preliminary model applied to the scenes of Mexico City, three areas were identified that cause great interest due to the presumed high concentration of PM; the zones are those that present high plant density, bodies of water and soil without constructions or vegetation. To date, work continues on this line to improve the preliminary model that has been proposed. In addition, a brief analysis was made of six models, presented in articles developed in different parts of the world, this in order to visualize the optimal bands for the generation of a suitable model for Mexico City. It was found that infrared bands have helped to model in other cities, but the effectiveness that these bands could provide for the geographic and climatic conditions of Mexico City is still being evaluated.

Keywords: air quality, modeling pollution, particulate matter, remote sensing

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3177 Identification of Natural Liver X Receptor Agonists as the Treatments or Supplements for the Management of Alzheimer and Metabolic Diseases

Authors: Hsiang-Ru Lin

Abstract:

Cholesterol plays an essential role in the regulation of the progression of numerous important diseases including atherosclerosis and Alzheimer disease so the generation of suitable cholesterol-lowering reagents is urgent to develop. Liver X receptor (LXR) is a ligand-activated transcription factor whose natural ligands are cholesterols, oxysterols and glucose. Once being activated, LXR can transactivate the transcription action of various genes including CYP7A1, ABCA1, and SREBP1c, involved in the lipid metabolism, glucose metabolism and inflammatory pathway. Essentially, the upregulation of ABCA1 facilitates cholesterol efflux from the cells and attenuates the production of beta-amyloid (ABeta) 42 in brain so LXR is a promising target to develop the cholesterol-lowering reagents and preventative treatment of Alzheimer disease. Engelhardia roxburghiana is a deciduous tree growing in India, China, and Taiwan. However, its chemical composition is only reported to exhibit antitubercular and anti-inflammatory effects. In this study, four compounds, engelheptanoxides A, C, engelhardiol A, and B isolated from the root of Engelhardia roxburghiana were evaluated for their agonistic activity against LXR by the transient transfection reporter assays in the HepG2 cells. Furthermore, their interactive modes with LXR ligand binding pocket were generated by molecular modeling programs. By using the cell-based biological assays, engelheptanoxides A, C, engelhardiol A, and B showing no cytotoxic effect against the proliferation of HepG2 cells, exerted obvious LXR agonistic effects with similar activity as T0901317, a novel synthetic LXR agonist. Further modeling studies including docking and SAR (structure-activity relationship) showed that these compounds can locate in LXR ligand binding pocket in the similar manner as T0901317. Thus, LXR is one of nuclear receptors targeted by pharmaceutical industry for developing treatments of Alzheimer and atherosclerosis diseases. Importantly, the cell-based assays, together with molecular modeling studies suggesting a plausible binding mode, demonstrate that engelheptanoxides A, C, engelhardiol A, and B function as LXR agonists. This is the first report to demonstrate that the extract of Engelhardia roxburghiana contains LXR agonists. As such, these active components of Engelhardia roxburghiana or subsequent analogs may show important therapeutic effects through selective modulation of the LXR pathway.

Keywords: Liver X receptor (LXR), Engelhardia roxburghiana, CYP7A1, ABCA1, SREBP1c, HepG2 cells

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3176 Growth of SWNTs from Alloy Catalyst Nanoparticles

Authors: S. Forel, F. Bouanis, L. Catala, I. Florea, V. Huc, F. Fossard, A. Loiseau, C. Cojocaru

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Single wall carbon nanotubes are seen as excellent candidate for application on nanoelectronic devices because of their remarkable electronic and mechanical properties. These unique properties are highly dependent on their chiral structures and the diameter. Therefore, structure controlled growth of SWNTs, especially directly on final device’s substrate surface, are highly desired for the fabrication of SWNT-based electronics. In this work, we present a new approach to control the diameter of SWNTs and eventually their chirality. Because of their potential to control the SWNT’s chirality, bi-metalics nanoparticles are used to prepare alloy nanoclusters with specific structure. The catalyst nanoparticles are pre-formed following a previously described process. Briefly, the oxide surface is first covered with a SAM (self-assembled monolayer) of a pyridine-functionalized silane. Then, bi-metallic (Fe-Ru, Co-Ru and Ni-Ru) complexes are assembled by coordination bonds on the pre-formed organic SAM. The resultant alloy nanoclusters were then used to catalyze SWNTs growth on SiO2/Si substrates via CH4/H2 double hot-filament chemical vapor deposition (d-HFCVD). The microscopy and spectroscopy analysis demonstrate the high quality of SWNTs that were furthermore integrated into high-quality SWNT-FET.

Keywords: nanotube, CVD, device, transistor

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3175 Synthesis and Characterization of Nickel and Sulphur Sensitized Zinc Oxide Structures

Authors: Ella C. Linganiso, Bonex W. Mwakikunga, Trilock Singh, Sanjay Mathur, Odireleng M. Ntwaeaborwa

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The use of nanostructured semiconducting material to catalyze degradation of environmental pollutants still receives much attention to date. One of the desired characteristics for pollutant degradation under ultra-violet visible light is the materials with extended carrier charge separation that allows for electronic transfer between the catalyst and the pollutants. In this work, zinc oxide n-type semiconductor vertically aligned structures were fabricated on silicon (100) substrates using the chemical bath deposition method. The as-synthesized structures were treated with nickel and sulphur. X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy were used to characterize the phase purity, structural dimensions and elemental composition of the obtained structures respectively. Photoluminescence emission measurements showed a decrease in both the near band edge emission as well as the defect band emission upon addition of nickel and sulphur with different concentrations. This was attributed to increased charger-carrier-separation due to the presence of Ni-S material on ZnO surface, which is linked to improved charge transfer during photocatalytic reactions.

Keywords: Carrier-charge-separation, nickel, photoluminescence, sulphur, zinc oxide

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3174 Flood Modeling in Urban Area Using a Well-Balanced Discontinuous Galerkin Scheme on Unstructured Triangular Grids

Authors: Rabih Ghostine, Craig Kapfer, Viswanathan Kannan, Ibrahim Hoteit

Abstract:

Urban flooding resulting from a sudden release of water due to dam-break or excessive rainfall is a serious threatening environment hazard, which causes loss of human life and large economic losses. Anticipating floods before they occur could minimize human and economic losses through the implementation of appropriate protection, provision, and rescue plans. This work reports on the numerical modelling of flash flood propagation in urban areas after an excessive rainfall event or dam-break. A two-dimensional (2D) depth-averaged shallow water model is used with a refined unstructured grid of triangles for representing the urban area topography. The 2D shallow water equations are solved using a second-order well-balanced discontinuous Galerkin scheme. Theoretical test case and three flood events are described to demonstrate the potential benefits of the scheme: (i) wetting and drying in a parabolic basin (ii) flash flood over a physical model of the urbanized Toce River valley in Italy; (iii) wave propagation on the Reyran river valley in consequence of the Malpasset dam-break in 1959 (France); and (iv) dam-break flood in October 1982 at the town of Sumacarcel (Spain). The capability of the scheme is also verified against alternative models. Computational results compare well with recorded data and show that the scheme is at least as efficient as comparable second-order finite volume schemes, with notable efficiency speedup due to parallelization.

Keywords: dam-break, discontinuous Galerkin scheme, flood modeling, shallow water equations

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3173 Numerical Performance Evaluation of a Savonius Wind Turbines Using Resistive Torque Modeling

Authors: Guermache Ahmed Chafik, Khelfellah Ismail, Ait-Ali Takfarines

Abstract:

The Savonius vertical axis wind turbine is characterized by sufficient starting torque at low wind speeds, simple design and does not require orientation to the wind direction; however, the developed power is lower than other types of wind turbines such as Darrieus. To increase these performances several studies and researches have been developed, such as optimizing blades shape, using passive controls and also minimizing power losses sources like the resisting torque due to friction. This work aims to estimate the performance of a Savonius wind turbine introducing a User Defined Function to the CFD model analyzing resisting torque. This User Defined Function is developed to simulate the action of the wind speed on the rotor; it receives the moment coefficient as an input to compute the rotational velocity that should be imposed on computational domain rotating regions. The rotational velocity depends on the aerodynamic moment applied on the turbine and the resisting torque, which is considered a linear function. Linking the implemented User Defined Function with the CFD solver allows simulating the real functioning of the Savonius turbine exposed to wind. It is noticed that the wind turbine takes a while to reach the stationary regime where the rotational velocity becomes invariable; at that moment, the tip speed ratio, the moment and power coefficients are computed. To validate this approach, the power coefficient versus tip speed ratio curve is compared with the experimental one. The obtained results are in agreement with the available experimental results.

Keywords: resistant torque modeling, Savonius wind turbine, user-defined function, vertical axis wind turbine performances

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3172 Modeling Route Selection Using Real-Time Information and GPS Data

Authors: William Albeiro Alvarez, Gloria Patricia Jaramillo, Ivan Reinaldo Sarmiento

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Understanding the behavior of individuals and the different human factors that influence the choice when faced with a complex system such as transportation is one of the most complicated aspects of measuring in the components that constitute the modeling of route choice due to that various behaviors and driving mode directly or indirectly affect the choice. During the last two decades, with the development of information and communications technologies, new data collection techniques have emerged such as GPS, geolocation with mobile phones, apps for choosing the route between origin and destination, individual service transport applications among others, where an interest has been generated to improve discrete choice models when considering the incorporation of these developments as well as psychological factors that affect decision making. This paper implements a discrete choice model that proposes and estimates a hybrid model that integrates route choice models and latent variables based on the observation on the route of a sample of public taxi drivers from the city of Medellín, Colombia in relation to its behavior, personality, socioeconomic characteristics, and driving mode. The set of choice options includes the routes generated by the individual service transport applications versus the driver's choice. The hybrid model consists of measurement equations that relate latent variables with measurement indicators and utilities with choice indicators along with structural equations that link the observable characteristics of drivers with latent variables and explanatory variables with utilities.

Keywords: behavior choice model, human factors, hybrid model, real time data

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3171 Intelligent Control of Bioprocesses: A Software Application

Authors: Mihai Caramihai, Dan Vasilescu

Abstract:

The main research objective of the experimental bioprocess analyzed in this paper was to obtain large biomass quantities. The bioprocess is performed in 100 L Bioengineering bioreactor with 42 L cultivation medium made of peptone, meat extract and sodium chloride. The reactor was equipped with pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and agitation controllers. The operating parameters were 37 oC, 1.2 atm, 250 rpm and air flow rate of 15 L/min. The main objective of this paper is to present a case study to demonstrate that intelligent control, describing the complexity of the biological process in a qualitative and subjective manner as perceived by human operator, is an efficient control strategy for this kind of bioprocesses. In order to simulate the bioprocess evolution, an intelligent control structure, based on fuzzy logic has been designed. The specific objective is to present a fuzzy control approach, based on human expert’ rules vs. a modeling approach of the cells growth based on bioprocess experimental data. The kinetic modeling may represent only a small number of bioprocesses for overall biosystem behavior while fuzzy control system (FCS) can manipulate incomplete and uncertain information about the process assuring high control performance and provides an alternative solution to non-linear control as it is closer to the real world. Due to the high degree of non-linearity and time variance of bioprocesses, the need of control mechanism arises. BIOSIM, an original developed software package, implements such a control structure. The simulation study has showed that the fuzzy technique is quite appropriate for this non-linear, time-varying system vs. the classical control method based on a priori model.

Keywords: intelligent, control, fuzzy model, bioprocess optimization

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3170 Estimation of Source Parameters and Moment Tensor Solution through Waveform Modeling of 2013 Kishtwar Earthquake

Authors: Shveta Puri, Shiv Jyoti Pandey, G. M. Bhat, Neha Raina

Abstract:

TheJammu and Kashmir region of the Northwest Himalaya had witnessed many devastating earthquakes in the recent past and has remained unexplored for any kind of seismic investigations except scanty records of the earthquakes that occurred in this region in the past. In this study, we have used local seismic data of year 2013 that was recorded by the network of Broadband Seismographs in J&K. During this period, our seismic stations recorded about 207 earthquakes including two moderate events of Mw 5.7 on 1st May, 2013 and Mw 5.1 of 2nd August, 2013.We analyzed the events of Mw 3-4.6 and the main events only (for minimizing the error) for source parameters, b value and sense of movement through waveform modeling for understanding seismotectonic and seismic hazard of the region. It has been observed that most of the events are bounded between 32.9° N – 33.3° N latitude and 75.4° E – 76.1° E longitudes, Moment Magnitude (Mw) ranges from Mw 3 to 5.7, Source radius (r), from 0.21 to 3.5 km, stress drop, from 1.90 bars to 71.1 bars and Corner frequency, from 0.39 – 6.06 Hz. The b-value for this region was found to be 0.83±0 from these events which are lower than the normal value (b=1), indicating the area is under high stress. The travel time inversion and waveform inversion method suggest focal depth up to 10 km probably above the detachment depth of the Himalayan region. Moment tensor solution of the (Mw 5.1, 02:32:47 UTC) main event of 2ndAugust suggested that the source fault is striking at 295° with dip of 33° and rake value of 85°. It was found that these events form intense clustering of small to moderate events within a narrow zone between Panjal Thrust and Kishtwar Window. Moment tensor solution of the main events and their aftershocks indicating thrust type of movement is occurring in this region.

Keywords: b-value, moment tensor, seismotectonics, source parameters

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3169 Manual Wheelchair Propulsion Efficiency on Different Slopes

Authors: A. Boonpratatong, J. Pantong, S. Kiattisaksophon, W. Senavongse

Abstract:

In this study, an integrated sensing and modeling system for manual wheelchair propulsion measurement and propulsion efficiency calculation was used to indicate the level of overuse. Seven subjects participated in the measurement. On the level surface, the propulsion efficiencies were not different significantly as the riding speed increased. By contrast, the propulsion efficiencies on the 15-degree incline were restricted to around 0.5. The results are supported by previously reported wheeling resistance and propulsion torque relationships implying margin of the overuse. Upper limb musculoskeletal injuries and syndromes in manual wheelchair riders are common, chronic, and may be caused at different levels by the overuse i.e. repetitive riding on steep incline. The qualitative analysis such as the mechanical effectiveness on manual wheeling to establish the relationship between the riding difficulties, mechanical efforts and propulsion outputs is scarce, possibly due to the challenge of simultaneous measurement of those factors in conventional manual wheelchairs and everyday environments. In this study, the integrated sensing and modeling system were used to measure manual wheelchair propulsion efficiency in conventional manual wheelchairs and everyday environments. The sensing unit is comprised of the contact pressure and inertia sensors which are portable and universal. Four healthy male and three healthy female subjects participated in the measurement on level and 15-degree incline surface. Subjects were asked to perform manual wheelchair ridings with three different self-selected speeds on level surface and only preferred speed on the 15-degree incline. Five trials were performed in each condition. The kinematic data of the subject’s dominant hand and a spoke and the trunk of the wheelchair were collected through the inertia sensors. The compression force applied from the thumb of the dominant hand to the push rim was collected through the contact pressure sensors. The signals from all sensors were recorded synchronously. The subject-selected speeds for slow, preferred and fast riding on level surface and subject-preferred speed on 15-degree incline were recorded. The propulsion efficiency as a ratio between the pushing force in tangential direction to the push rim and the net force as a result of the three-dimensional riding motion were derived by inverse dynamic problem solving in the modeling unit. The intra-subject variability of the riding speed was not different significantly as the self-selected speed increased on the level surface. Since the riding speed on the 15-degree incline was difficult to regulate, the intra-subject variability was not applied. On the level surface, the propulsion efficiencies were not different significantly as the riding speed increased. However, the propulsion efficiencies on the 15-degree incline were restricted to around 0.5 for all subjects on their preferred speed. The results are supported by the previously reported relationship between the wheeling resistance and propulsion torque in which the wheelchair axle torque increased but the muscle activities were not increased when the resistance is high. This implies the margin of dynamic efforts on the relatively high resistance being similar to the margin of the overuse indicated by the restricted propulsion efficiency on the 15-degree incline.

Keywords: contact pressure sensor, inertia sensor, integrating sensing and modeling system, manual wheelchair propulsion efficiency, manual wheelchair propulsion measurement, tangential force, resultant force, three-dimensional riding motion

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3168 Statistical Model of Water Quality in Estero El Macho, Machala-El Oro

Authors: Rafael Zhindon Almeida

Abstract:

Surface water quality is an important concern for the evaluation and prediction of water quality conditions. The objective of this study is to develop a statistical model that can accurately predict the water quality of the El Macho estuary in the city of Machala, El Oro province. The methodology employed in this study is of a basic type that involves a thorough search for theoretical foundations to improve the understanding of statistical modeling for water quality analysis. The research design is correlational, using a multivariate statistical model involving multiple linear regression and principal component analysis. The results indicate that water quality parameters such as fecal coliforms, biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, iron and dissolved oxygen exceed the allowable limits. The water of the El Macho estuary is determined to be below the required water quality criteria. The multiple linear regression model, based on chemical oxygen demand and total dissolved solids, explains 99.9% of the variance of the dependent variable. In addition, principal component analysis shows that the model has an explanatory power of 86.242%. The study successfully developed a statistical model to evaluate the water quality of the El Macho estuary. The estuary did not meet the water quality criteria, with several parameters exceeding the allowable limits. The multiple linear regression model and principal component analysis provide valuable information on the relationship between the various water quality parameters. The findings of the study emphasize the need for immediate action to improve the water quality of the El Macho estuary to ensure the preservation and protection of this valuable natural resource.

Keywords: statistical modeling, water quality, multiple linear regression, principal components, statistical models

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3167 The Benefits of End-To-End Integrated Planning from the Mine to Client Supply for Minimizing Penalties

Authors: G. Martino, F. Silva, E. Marchal

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The control over delivered iron ore blend characteristics is one of the most important aspects of the mining business. The iron ore price is a function of its composition, which is the outcome of the beneficiation process. So, end-to-end integrated planning of mine operations can reduce risks of penalties on the iron ore price. In a standard iron mining company, the production chain is composed of mining, ore beneficiation, and client supply. When mine planning and client supply decisions are made uncoordinated, the beneficiation plant struggles to deliver the best blend possible. Technological improvements in several fields allowed bridging the gap between departments and boosting integrated decision-making processes. Clusterization and classification algorithms over historical production data generate reasonable previsions for quality and volume of iron ore produced for each pile of run-of-mine (ROM) processed. Mathematical modeling can use those deterministic relations to propose iron ore blends that better-fit specifications within a delivery schedule. Additionally, a model capable of representing the whole production chain can clearly compare the overall impact of different decisions in the process. This study shows how flexibilization combined with a planning optimization model between the mine and the ore beneficiation processes can reduce risks of out of specification deliveries. The model capabilities are illustrated on a hypothetical iron ore mine with magnetic separation process. Finally, this study shows ways of cost reduction or profit increase by optimizing process indicators across the production chain and integrating the different plannings with the sales decisions.

Keywords: clusterization and classification algorithms, integrated planning, mathematical modeling, optimization, penalty minimization

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3166 Investigation of Contact Pressure Distribution at Expanded Polystyrene Geofoam Interfaces Using Tactile Sensors

Authors: Chen Liu, Dawit Negussey

Abstract:

EPS (Expanded Polystyrene) geofoam as light-weight material in geotechnical applications are made of pre-expanded resin beads that form fused cellular micro-structures. The strength and deformation properties of geofoam blocks are determined by unconfined compression of small test samples between rigid loading plates. Applied loads are presumed to be supported uniformly over the entire mating end areas. Predictions of field performance on the basis of such laboratory tests widely over-estimate actual post-construction settlements and exaggerate predictions of long-term creep deformations. This investigation examined the development of contact pressures at a large number of discrete points at low and large strain levels for different densities of geofoam. Development of pressure patterns for fine and coarse interface material textures as well as for molding skin and hot wire cut geofoam surfaces were examined. The lab testing showed that I-Scan tactile sensors are useful for detailed observation of contact pressures at a large number of discrete points simultaneously. At low strain level (1%), the lower density EPS block presents low variations in localized stress distribution compared to higher density EPS. At high strain level (10%), the dense geofoam reached the sensor cut-off limit. The imprint and pressure patterns for different interface textures can be distinguished with tactile sensing. The pressure sensing system can be used in many fields with real-time pressure detection. The research findings provide a better understanding of EPS geofoam behavior for improvement of design methods and performance prediction of critical infrastructures, which will be anticipated to guide future improvements in design and rapid construction of critical transportation infrastructures with geofoam in geotechnical applications.

Keywords: geofoam, pressure distribution, tactile pressure sensors, interface

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3165 Finite Element Modeling of Global Ti-6Al-4V Mechanical Behavior in Relationship with Microstructural Parameters

Authors: Fatna Benmessaoud, Mohammed Cheikh, Vencent Velay, Vanessa Vedal, Farhad Rezai-Aria, Christine Boher

Abstract:

The global mechanical behavior of materials is strongly linked to their microstructure, especially their crystallographic texture and their grains morphology. These material aspects determine the mechanical fields character (heterogeneous or homogeneous), thus, they give to the global behavior a degree of anisotropy according the initial microstructure. For these reasons, the prediction of global behavior of materials in relationship with the microstructure must be performed with a multi-scale approach. Therefore, multi-scale modeling in the context of crystal plasticity is widely used. In this present contribution, a phenomenological elasto-viscoplastic model developed in the crystal plasticity context and finite element method are used to investigate the effects of crystallographic texture and grains sizes on global behavior of a polycrystalline equiaxed Ti-6Al-4V alloy. The constitutive equations of this model are written on local scale for each slip system within each grain while the strain and stress mechanical fields are investigated at the global scale via finite element scale transition. The beta phase of Ti-6Al-4V alloy modeled is negligible; its percent is less than 10%. Three families of slip systems of alpha phase are considered: basal and prismatic families with a burgers vector and pyramidal family with a burgers vector. The twinning mechanism of plastic strain is not observed in Ti-6Al-4V, therefore, it is not considered in the present modeling. Nine representative elementary volumes (REV) are generated with Voronoi tessellations. For each individual equiaxed grain, the own crystallographic orientation vis-à-vis the loading is taken into account. The meshing strategy is optimized in a way to eliminate the meshing effects and at the same time to allow calculating the individual grain size. The stress and strain fields are determined in each Gauss point of the mesh element. A post-treatment is used to calculate the local behavior (in each grain) and then by appropriate homogenization, the macroscopic behavior is calculated. The developed model is validated by comparing the numerical simulation results with an experimental data reported in the literature. It is observed that the present model is able to predict the global mechanical behavior of Ti-6Al-4V alloy and investigate the microstructural parameters' effects. According to the simulations performed on the generated volumes (REV), the macroscopic mechanical behavior of Ti-6Al-4V is strongly linked to the active slip systems family (prismatic, basal or pyramidal). The crystallographic texture determines which family of slip systems can be activated; therefore it gives to the plastic strain a heterogeneous character thus an anisotropic macroscopic mechanical behavior. The average grains size influences also the Ti-6Al-4V mechanical proprieties, especially the yield stress; by decreasing of the average grains size, the yield strength increases according to Hall-Petch relationship. The grains sizes' distribution gives to the strain fields considerable heterogeneity. By increasing grain sizes, the scattering in the localization of plastic strain is observed, thus, in certain areas the stress concentrations are stronger than other regions.

Keywords: microstructural parameters, multi-scale modeling, crystal plasticity, Ti-6Al-4V alloy

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3164 Energy Consumption Estimation for Hybrid Marine Power Systems: Comparing Modeling Methodologies

Authors: Kamyar Maleki Bagherabadi, Torstein Aarseth Bø, Truls Flatberg, Olve Mo

Abstract:

Hydrogen fuel cells and batteries are one of the promising solutions aligned with carbon emission reduction goals for the marine sector. However, the higher installation and operation costs of hydrogen-based systems compared to conventional diesel gensets raise questions about the appropriate hydrogen tank size, energy and fuel consumption estimations. Ship designers need methodologies and tools to calculate energy and fuel consumption for different component sizes to facilitate decision-making regarding feasibility and performance for retrofits and design cases. The aim of this work is to compare three alternative modeling approaches for the estimation of energy and fuel consumption with various hydrogen tank sizes, battery capacities, and load-sharing strategies. A fishery vessel is selected as an example, using logged load demand data over a year of operations. The modeled power system consists of a PEM fuel cell, a diesel genset, and a battery. The methodologies used are: first, an energy-based model; second, considering load variations during the time domain with a rule-based Power Management System (PMS); and third, a load variations model and dynamic PMS strategy based on optimization with perfect foresight. The results show that the energy-based method can estimate fuel and energy consumption with acceptable accuracy. However, models that consider time variation of the load provide more realistic estimations of energy and fuel consumption regarding hydrogen tank and battery size, still within low computational time.

Keywords: fuel cell, battery, hydrogen, hybrid power system, power management system

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3163 Structural and Electrical Properties of VO₂/ZnO Nanostructures

Authors: Sang-Wook Han, Zhenlan Jin, In-Hui Hwang, Chang-In Park

Abstract:

We examined structural and electrical properties of uniformly-oriented VO₂/ZnO nanostructures. VO₂ was deposited on ZnO templates by using a direct current-sputtering deposition. Scanning electron microscope and transmission electron microscope measurements indicated that b-oriented VO₂ were uniformly crystallized on ZnO templates with different lengths. VO₂/ZnO formed nanorods on ZnO nanorods with length longer than 250 nm. X-ray absorption fine structure at V K edge of VO₂/ZnO showed M1 and R phases of VO₂ at 30 and 100 ℃, respectively, suggesting structural phase transition between temperatures. Temperature-dependent resistance measurements of VO₂/ZnO nanostructures revealed metal-to-insulator transition at 65 ℃ and 55 ℃ during heating and cooling, respectively, regardless of ZnO length. The bond lengths of V-O and V-V pairs in VO₂/ZnO nanorods were somewhat distorted, and a substantial amount of structural disorder existed in the atomic pairs, compared to those of VO₂ films without ZnO. Resistance from VO₂/ZnO nanorods revealed a sharp MIT near 65 ℃ during heating and a hysteresis behavior. The resistance results suggest that microchannel for charge carriers exist nearly room temperature during cooling. VO₂/ZnO nanorods are quite stable and reproducible so that they can be widely used for practical applications to electronic devices, gas sensors, and ultra-fast switches, as examples.

Keywords: metal-to-insulator transition, VO₂, ZnO, XAFS, structural-phase transition

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3162 An Investigation into the Impacts of High-Frequency Electromagnetic Fields Utilized in the 5G Technology on Insects

Authors: Veriko Jeladze, Besarion Partsvania, Levan Shoshiashvili

Abstract:

This paper addresses a very topical issue today. The frequency range 2.5-100 GHz contains frequencies that have already been used or will be used in modern 5G technologies. The wavelengths used in 5G systems will be close to the body dimensions of small size biological objects, particularly insects. Because the body and body parts dimensions of insects at these frequencies are comparable with the wavelength, the high absorption of EMF energy in the body tissues can occur(body resonance) and therefore can cause harmful effects, possibly the extinction of some of them. An investigation into the impact of radio-frequency nonionizing electromagnetic field (EMF) utilized in the future 5G on insects is of great importance as a very high number of 5G network components will increase the total EMF exposure in the environment. All ecosystems of the earth are interconnected. If one component of an ecosystem is disrupted, the whole system will be affected (which could cause cascading effects). The study of these problems is an important challenge for scientists today because the existing studies are incomplete and insufficient. Consequently, the purpose of this proposed research is to investigate the possible hazardous impact of RF-EMFs (including 5G EMFs) on insects. The project will study the effects of these EMFs on various insects that have different body sizes through computer modeling at frequencies from 2.5 to 100 GHz. The selected insects are honey bee, wasp, and ladybug. For this purpose, the detailed 3D discrete models of insects are created for EM and thermal modeling through FDTD and will be evaluated whole-body Specific Absorption Rates (SAR) at selected frequencies. All these studies represent a novelty. The proposed study will promote new investigations about the bio-effects of 5G-EMFs and will contribute to the harmonization of safe exposure levels and frequencies of 5G-EMFs'.

Keywords: electromagnetic field, insect, FDTD, specific absorption rate (SAR)

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3161 An Agent-Based Model of Innovation Diffusion Using Heterogeneous Social Interaction and Preference

Authors: Jang kyun Cho, Jeong-dong Lee

Abstract:

The advent of the Internet, mobile communications, and social network services has stimulated social interactions among consumers, allowing people to affect one another’s innovation adoptions by exchanging information more frequently and more quickly. Previous diffusion models, such as the Bass model, however, face limitations in reflecting such recent phenomena in society. These models are weak in their ability to model interactions between agents; they model aggregated-level behaviors only. The agent based model, which is an alternative to the aggregate model, is good for individual modeling, but it is still not based on an economic perspective of social interactions so far. This study assumes the presence of social utility from other consumers in the adoption of innovation and investigates the effect of individual interactions on innovation diffusion by developing a new model called the interaction-based diffusion model. By comparing this model with previous diffusion models, the study also examines how the proposed model explains innovation diffusion from the perspective of economics. In addition, the study recommends the use of a small-world network topology instead of cellular automata to describe innovation diffusion. This study develops a model based on individual preference and heterogeneous social interactions using utility specification, which is expandable and, thus, able to encompass various issues in diffusion research, such as reservation price. Furthermore, the study proposes a new framework to forecast aggregated-level market demand from individual level modeling. The model also exhibits a good fit to real market data. It is expected that the study will contribute to our understanding of the innovation diffusion process through its microeconomic theoretical approach.

Keywords: innovation diffusion, agent based model, small-world network, demand forecasting

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3160 A Computational Analysis of Gas Jet Flow Effects on Liquid Aspiration in the Collison Nebulizer

Authors: James Q. Feng

Abstract:

Pneumatic nebulizers (as variations based on the Collison nebulizer) have been widely used for producing fine aerosol droplets from a liquid material. As qualitatively described by many authors, the basic working principle of those nebulizers involves utilization of the negative pressure associated with an expanding gas jet to syphon liquid into the jet stream, then to blow and shear into liquid sheets, filaments, and eventually droplets. But detailed quantitative analysis based on fluid mechanics theory has been lacking in the literature. The purpose of present work is to investigate the nature of negative pressure distribution associated with compressible gas jet flow in the Collison nebulizer by a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis, using an OpenFOAM® compressible flow solver. The value of the negative pressure associated with a gas jet flow is examined by varying geometric parameters of the jet expansion channel adjacent to the jet orifice outlet. Such an analysis can provide valuable insights into fundamental mechanisms in liquid aspiration process, helpful for effective design of the pneumatic atomizer in the Aerosol Jet® direct-write system for micro-feature, high-aspect-ratio material deposition in additive manufacturing.

Keywords: collison nebulizer, compressible gas jet flow, liquid aspiration, pneumatic atomization

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3159 Made on Land, Ends Up in the Water "I-Clare" Intelligent Remediation System for Removal of Harmful Contaminants in Water using Modified Reticulated Vitreous Carbon Foam

Authors: Sabina Żołędowska, Tadeusz Ossowski, Robert Bogdanowicz, Jacek Ryl, Paweł Rostkowski, Michał Kruczkowski, Michał Sobaszek, Zofia Cebula, Grzegorz Skowierzak, Paweł Jakóbczyk, Lilit Hovhannisyan, Paweł Ślepski, Iwona Kaczmarczyk, Mattia Pierpaoli, Bartłomiej Dec, Dawid Nidzworski

Abstract:

The circular economy of water presents a pressing environmental challenge in our society. Water contains various harmful substances, such as drugs, antibiotics, hormones, and dioxides, which can pose silent threats. Water pollution has severe consequences for aquatic ecosystems. It disrupts the balance of ecosystems by harming aquatic plants, animals, and microorganisms. Water pollution poses significant risks to human health. Exposure to toxic chemicals through contaminated water can have long-term health effects, such as cancer, developmental disorders, and hormonal imbalances. However, effective remediation systems can be implemented to remove these contaminants using electrocatalytic processes, which offer an environmentally friendly alternative to other treatment methods, and one of them is the innovative iCLARE system. The project's primary focus revolves around a few main topics: Reactor design and construction, selection of a specific type of reticulated vitreous carbon foams (RVC), analytical studies of harmful contaminants parameters and AI implementation. This high-performance electrochemical reactor will be build based on a novel type of electrode material. The proposed approach utilizes the application of reticulated vitreous carbon foams (RVC) with deposited modified metal oxides (MMO) and diamond thin films. The following setup is characterized by high surface area development and satisfactory mechanical and electrochemical properties, designed for high electrocatalytic process efficiency. The consortium validated electrode modification methods that are the base of the iCLARE product and established the procedures for the detection of chemicals detection: - deposition of metal oxides WO3 and V2O5-deposition of boron-doped diamond/nanowalls structures by CVD process. The chosen electrodes (porous Ferroterm electrodes) were stress tested for various parameters that might occur inside the iCLARE machine–corosis, the long-term structure of the electrode surface during electrochemical processes, and energetic efficacy using cyclic polarization and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (before and after electrolysis) and dynamic electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (DEIS). This tool allows real-time monitoring of the changes at the electrode/electrolyte interphase. On the other hand, the toxicity of iCLARE chemicals and products of electrolysis are evaluated before and after the treatment using MARA examination (IBMM) and HPLC-MS-MS (NILU), giving us information about the harmfulness of using electrode material and the efficiency of iClare system in the disposal of pollutants. Implementation of data into the system that uses artificial intelligence and the possibility of practical application is in progress (SensDx).

Keywords: waste water treatement, RVC, electrocatalysis, paracetamol

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3158 A Parking Demand Forecasting Method for Making Parking Policy in the Center of Kabul City

Authors: Roien Qiam, Shoshi Mizokami

Abstract:

Parking demand in the Central Business District (CBD) has enlarged with the increase of the number of private vehicles due to rapid economic growth, lack of an efficient public transport and traffic management system. This has resulted in low mobility, poor accessibility, serious congestion, high rates of traffic accident fatalities and injuries and air pollution, mainly because people have to drive slowly around to find a vacant spot. With parking pricing and enforcement policy, considerable advancement could be found, and on-street parking spaces could be managed efficiently and effectively. To evaluate parking demand and making parking policy, it is required to understand the current parking condition and driver’s behavior, understand how drivers choose their parking type and location as well as their behavior toward finding a vacant parking spot under parking charges and search times. This study illustrates the result from an observational, revealed and stated preference surveys and experiment. Attained data shows that there is a gap between supply and demand in parking and it has maximized. For the modeling of the parking decision, a choice model was constructed based on discrete choice modeling theory and multinomial logit model estimated by using SP survey data; the model represents the choice of an alternative among different alternatives which are priced on-street, off-street, and illegal parking. Individuals choose a parking type based on their preference concerning parking charges, searching times, access times and waiting times. The parking assignment model was obtained directly from behavioral model and is used in parking simulation. The study concludes with an evaluation of parking policy.

Keywords: CBD, parking demand forecast, parking policy, parking choice model

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3157 Modeling of the Biodegradation Performance of a Membrane Bioreactor to Enhance Water Reuse in Agri-food Industry - Poultry Slaughterhouse as an Example

Authors: masmoudi Jabri Khaoula, Zitouni Hana, Bousselmi Latifa, Akrout Hanen

Abstract:

Mathematical modeling has become an essential tool for sustainable wastewater management, particularly for the simulation and the optimization of complex processes involved in activated sludge systems. In this context, the activated sludge model (ASM3h) was used for the simulation of a Biological Membrane Reactor (MBR) as it includes the integration of biological wastewater treatment and physical separation by membrane filtration. In this study, the MBR with a useful volume of 12.5 L was fed continuously with poultry slaughterhouse wastewater (PSWW) for 50 days at a feed rate of 2 L/h and for a hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 6.25h. Throughout its operation, High removal efficiency was observed for the removal of organic pollutants in terms of COD with 84% of efficiency. Moreover, the MBR has generated a treated effluent which fits with the limits of discharge into the public sewer according to the Tunisian standards which were set in March 2018. In fact, for the nitrogenous compounds, average concentrations of nitrate and nitrite in the permeat reached 0.26±0.3 mg. L-1 and 2.2±2.53 mg. L-1, respectively. The simulation of the MBR process was performed using SIMBA software v 5.0. The state variables employed in the steady state calibration of the ASM3h were determined using physical and respirometric methods. The model calibration was performed using experimental data obtained during the first 20 days of the MBR operation. Afterwards, kinetic parameters of the model were adjusted and the simulated values of COD, N-NH4+and N- NOx were compared with those reported from the experiment. A good prediction was observed for the COD, N-NH4+and N- NOx concentrations with 467 g COD/m³, 110.2 g N/m³, 3.2 g N/m³ compared to the experimental data which were 436.4 g COD/m³, 114.7 g N/m³ and 3 g N/m³, respectively. For the validation of the model under dynamic simulation, the results of the experiments obtained during the second treatment phase of 30 days were used. It was demonstrated that the model simulated the conditions accurately by yielding a similar pattern on the variation of the COD concentration. On the other hand, an underestimation of the N-NH4+ concentration was observed during the simulation compared to the experimental results and the measured N-NO3 concentrations were lower than the predicted ones, this difference could be explained by the fact that the ASM models were mainly designed for the simulation of biological processes in the activated sludge systems. In addition, more treatment time could be required by the autotrophic bacteria to achieve a complete and stable nitrification. Overall, this study demonstrated the effectiveness of mathematical modeling in the prediction of the performance of the MBR systems with respect to organic pollution, the model can be further improved for the simulation of nutrients removal for a longer treatment period.

Keywords: activated sludge model (ASM3h), membrane bioreactor (MBR), poultry slaughter wastewater (PSWW), reuse

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3156 The Effects of Applied Negative Bias Voltage on Structure and Optical Properties of a-C:H Films

Authors: X. L. Zhou, S. Tunmee, I. Toda, K. Komatsu, S. Ohshio, H. Saitoh

Abstract:

Hydrogenated amorphous carbon (a-C:H) films have been synthesized by a radio frequency plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (rf-PECVD) technique with different bias voltage from 0.0 to -0.5 kV. The Raman spectra displayed the polymer-like hydrogenated amorphous carbon (PLCH) film with 0.0 to -0.1 and a-C:H films with -0.2 to -0.5 kV of bias voltages. The surface chemical information of all films were studied by X-ray photo electron spectroscopy (XPS) technique, presented to C-C (sp2 and sp3) and C-O bonds, and relative carbon (C) and oxygen (O) atomics contents. The O contamination had affected on structure and optical properties. The true density of PLCH and a-C:H films were characterized by X-ray refractivity (XRR) method, showed the result as in the range of 1.16-1.73 g/cm3 that depending on an increasing of bias voltage. The hardness was proportional to the true density of films. In addition, the optical properties i.e. refractive index (n) and extinction coefficient (k) of these films were determined by a spectroscopic ellipsometry (SE) method that give formation to in 1.62-2.10 (n) and 0.04-0.15 (k) respectively. These results indicated that the optical properties confirmed the Raman results as presenting the structure changed with applied bias voltage increased.

Keywords: negative bias voltage, a-C:H film, oxygen contamination, optical properties

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3155 Application of Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy to Monitor the Steel/Soil Interface During Cathodic Protection of Steel in Simulated Soil Solution

Authors: Mandlenkosi George Robert Mahlobo, Tumelo Seadira, Major Melusi Mabuza, Peter Apata Olubambi

Abstract:

Cathodic protection (CP) has been widely considered a suitable technique for mitigating corrosion of buried metal structures. Plenty of efforts have been made in developing techniques, in particular non-destructive techniques, for monitoring and quantifying the effectiveness of CP to ensure the sustainability and performance of buried steel structures. The aim of this study was to investigate the evolution of the electrochemical processes at the steel/soil interface during the application of CP on steel in simulated soil. Carbon steel was subjected to electrochemical tests with NS4 solution used as simulated soil conditions for 4 days before applying CP for a further 11 days. A previously modified non-destructive voltammetry technique was applied before and after the application of CP to measure the corrosion rate. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), in combination with mathematical modeling through equivalent electric circuits, was applied to determine the electrochemical behavior at the steel/soil interface. The measured corrosion rate was found to have decreased from 410 µm/yr to 8 µm/yr between days 5 and 14 because of the applied CP. Equivalent electrical circuits were successfully constructed and used to adequately model the EIS results. The modeling of the obtained EIS results revealed the formation of corrosion products via a mixed activation-diffusion mechanism during the first 4 days, while the activation mechanism prevailed in the presence of CP, resulting in a protective film. The x-ray diffraction analysis confirmed the presence of corrosion products and the predominant protective film corresponding to the calcareous deposit.

Keywords: carbon steel, cathodic protection, NS4 solution, voltammetry, EIS

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3154 Modeling Depth Averaged Velocity and Boundary Shear Stress Distributions

Authors: Ebissa Gadissa Kedir, C. S. P. Ojha, K. S. Hari Prasad

Abstract:

In the present study, the depth-averaged velocity and boundary shear stress in non-prismatic compound channels with three different converging floodplain angles ranging from 1.43ᶱ to 7.59ᶱ have been studied. The analytical solutions were derived by considering acting forces on the channel beds and walls. In the present study, five key parameters, i.e., non-dimensional coefficient, secondary flow term, secondary flow coefficient, friction factor, and dimensionless eddy viscosity, were considered and discussed. An expression for non-dimensional coefficient and integration constants was derived based on the boundary conditions. The model was applied to different data sets of the present experiments and experiments from other sources, respectively, to examine and analyse the influence of floodplain converging angles on depth-averaged velocity and boundary shear stress distributions. The results show that the non-dimensional parameter plays important in portraying the variation of depth-averaged velocity and boundary shear stress distributions with different floodplain converging angles. Thus, the variation of the non-dimensional coefficient needs attention since it affects the secondary flow term and secondary flow coefficient in both the main channel and floodplains. The analysis shows that the depth-averaged velocities are sensitive to a shear stress-dependent model parameter non-dimensional coefficient, and the analytical solutions are well agreed with experimental data when five parameters are included. It is inferred that the developed model may facilitate the interest of others in complex flow modeling.

Keywords: depth-average velocity, converging floodplain angles, non-dimensional coefficient, non-prismatic compound channels

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3153 Nonlinear Finite Element Modeling of Deep Beam Resting on Linear and Nonlinear Random Soil

Authors: M. Seguini, D. Nedjar

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An accuracy nonlinear analysis of a deep beam resting on elastic perfectly plastic soil is carried out in this study. In fact, a nonlinear finite element modeling for large deflection and moderate rotation of Euler-Bernoulli beam resting on linear and nonlinear random soil is investigated. The geometric nonlinear analysis of the beam is based on the theory of von Kàrmàn, where the Newton-Raphson incremental iteration method is implemented in a Matlab code to solve the nonlinear equation of the soil-beam interaction system. However, two analyses (deterministic and probabilistic) are proposed to verify the accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed model where the theory of the local average based on the Monte Carlo approach is used to analyze the effect of the spatial variability of the soil properties on the nonlinear beam response. The effect of six main parameters are investigated: the external load, the length of a beam, the coefficient of subgrade reaction of the soil, the Young’s modulus of the beam, the coefficient of variation and the correlation length of the soil’s coefficient of subgrade reaction. A comparison between the beam resting on linear and nonlinear soil models is presented for different beam’s length and external load. Numerical results have been obtained for the combination of the geometric nonlinearity of beam and material nonlinearity of random soil. This comparison highlighted the need of including the material nonlinearity and spatial variability of the soil in the geometric nonlinear analysis, when the beam undergoes large deflections.

Keywords: finite element method, geometric nonlinearity, material nonlinearity, soil-structure interaction, spatial variability

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3152 A Phenomenological Approach to Computational Modeling of Analogy

Authors: José Eduardo García-Mendiola

Abstract:

In this work, a phenomenological approach to computational modeling of analogy processing is carried out. The paper goes through the consideration of the structure of the analogy, based on the possibility of sustaining the genesis of its elements regarding Husserl's genetic theory of association. Among particular processes which take place in order to get analogical inferences, there is one which arises crucial for enabling efficient base cases retrieval through long-term memory, namely analogical transference grounded on familiarity. In general, it has been argued that analogical reasoning is a way by which a conscious agent tries to determine or define a certain scope of objects and relationships between them using previous knowledge of other familiar domain of objects and relations. However, looking for a complete description of analogy process, a deeper consideration of phenomenological nature is required in so far, its simulation by computational programs is aimed. Also, one would get an idea of how complex it would be to have a fully computational account of the analogy elements. In fact, familiarity is not a result of a mere chain of repetitions of objects or events but generated insofar as the object/attribute or event in question is integrable inside a certain context that is taking shape as functionalities and functional approaches or perspectives of the object are being defined. Its familiarity is generated not by the identification of its parts or objective determinations as if they were isolated from those functionalities and approaches. Rather, at the core of such a familiarity between entities of different kinds lays the way they are functionally encoded. So, and hoping to make deeper inroads towards these topics, this essay allows us to consider that cognitive-computational perspectives can visualize, from the phenomenological projection of the analogy process reviewing achievements already obtained as well as exploration of new theoretical-experimental configurations towards implementation of analogy models in specific as well as in general purpose machines.

Keywords: analogy, association, encoding, retrieval

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3151 Experimental Study for Examination of Nature of Diffusion Process during Wine Microoxygenation

Authors: Ilirjan Malollari, Redi Buzo, Lorina Lici

Abstract:

This study was done for the characterization of polyphenols changes of anthocyanins, flavonoids, the color intensity and total polyphenols index, maturity and oxidation index during the process of micro-oxygenation of wine that comes from a specific geographic area in the southeastern region of the country. Also, through mathematical modeling of the oxygen distribution within solution of wort for wine fermentation, was shown the strong impact of carbon dioxide present in the liquor. Analytical results show periodic increases of color intensity and tonality, reduction level of free anthocyanins and flavonoids free because of polycondensation reactions between tannins and anthocyanins, increased total polyphenols index and decrease the ratio between the flavonoids and anthocyanins offering a red stabilize wine proved by sensory degustation tasting for color intensity, tonality, body, tannic perception, taste and remained back taste which comes by specific area associated with environmental indications. Micro-oxygenation of wine is a wine-making technique, which consists in the addition of small and controlled amounts of oxygen in the different stages of wine production but more efficiently after end of alcoholic fermentation. The objectives of the process include improved mouth feel (body and texture), color enhanced stability, increased oxidative stability, and decreased vegetative aroma during polyphenols changes process. A very important factor is polyphenolics organic grape composition strongly associated with the environment geographical specifics area in which it is grown the grape.

Keywords: micro oxygenation, polyphenols, environment, wine stability, diffusion modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 194
3150 Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain Method for Corn and Soybean Price Forecasting in North Carolina Markets

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

Abstract:

Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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