Search results for: approximate posterior distribution

Authors: Melkamu A. Zeru, Yamral M. Warkaw, Aweke A. Mitku, Muluwerk Ayele

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Introduction: Malaria is a severe health threat in the World, mainly in Africa. It is the major cause of health problems in which the risk of morbidity and mortality associated with malaria cases are characterized by spatial variations across the county. This study aimed to investigate the spatial patterns and predictors of malaria distribution in Ethiopia. Methods: A weighted sample of 15,239 individuals with rapid diagnosis tests was obtained from the Central Statistical Agency and Ethiopia malaria indicator survey of 2015. Global Moran's I and Moran scatter plots were used in determining the distribution of malaria cases, whereas the local Moran's I statistic was used in identifying exposed areas. In data manipulation, machine learning was used for variable reduction and statistical software R, Stata, and Python were used for data management and analysis. The auto logistics spatial binary regression model was used to investigate the predictors of malaria. Results: The final auto logistics regression model reported that male clients had a positive significant effect on malaria cases as compared to female clients [AOR=2.401, 95 % CI: (2.125 - 2.713)]. The distribution of malaria across the regions was different. The highest incidence of malaria was found in Gambela [AOR=52.55, 95%CI: (40.54-68.12)] followed by Beneshangul [AOR=34.95, 95%CI: (27.159 - 44.963)]. Similarly, individuals in Amhara [AOR=0.243, 95% CI:(0.1950.303],Oromiya[AOR=0.197,95%CI:(0.1580.244)],DireDawa[AOR=0.064,95%CI(0.049-0.082)],AddisAbaba[AOR=0.057,95%CI:(0.044-0.075)], Somali[AOR=0.077,95%CI:(0.059-0.097)], SNNPR[OR=0.329, 95%CI: (0.261- 0.413)] and Harari [AOR=0.256, 95%CI:(0.201 - 0.325)] were less likely to had low incidence of malaria as compared with Tigray. Furthermore, for a one-meter increase in altitude, the odds of a positive rapid diagnostic test (RDT) decrease by 1.6% [AOR = 0.984, 95% CI :( 0.984 - 0.984)]. The use of a shared toilet facility was found as a protective factor for malaria in Ethiopia [AOR=1.671, 95% CI: (1.504 - 1.854)]. The spatial autocorrelation variable changes the constant from AOR = 0.471 for logistic regression to AOR = 0.164 for auto logistics regression. Conclusions: This study found that the incidence of malaria in Ethiopia had a spatial pattern that is associated with socio-economic, demographic, and geographic risk factors. Spatial clustering of malaria cases had occurred in all regions, and the risk of clustering was different across the regions. The risk of malaria was found to be higher for those who live in soil floor-type houses as compared to those who live in cement or ceramics floor type. Similarly, households with thatched, metal and thin, and other roof-type houses have a higher risk of malaria than ceramic tiles roof houses. Moreover, using a protected anti-mosquito net reduced the risk of malaria incidence.

Keywords: malaria, Ethiopia, auto logistics, spatial model, spatial clustering

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Authors: Junya Kouwa, Shinsuke Matsuno, Chihiro Inoue, Takehiro Himeno, Toshinori Watanabe

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Bi-propellant thrusters use impinging jet atomization to atomize liquid fuel and oxidizer. Atomized propellants are mixed and combusted due to auto-ignitions. Therefore, it is important for a prediction of thruster’s performance to simulate the primary atomization phenomenon; especially, the local mixture ratio can be used as indicator of thrust performance, so it is useful to evaluate it from numerical simulations. In this research, we propose a numerical method for considering bi-liquid and the mixture and install it to CIP-LSM which is a two-phase flow simulation solver with level-set and MARS method as an interfacial tracking method and can predict local mixture ratio distribution downstream from an impingement point. A new parameter, beta, which is defined as the volume fraction of one liquid in the mixed liquid within a cell is introduced and the solver calculates the advection of beta, inflow and outflow flux of beta to a cell. By validating this solver, we conducted a simple experiment and the same simulation by using the solver. From the result, the solver can predict the penetrating length of a liquid jet correctly and it is confirmed that the solver can simulate the mixing of liquids. Then we apply this solver to the numerical simulation of impinging jet atomization. From the result, the inclination angle of fan after the impingement in the bi-liquid condition reasonably agrees with the theoretical value. Also, it is seen that the mixture of liquids can be simulated in this result. Furthermore, simulation results clarify that the injecting condition affects the atomization process and local mixture ratio distribution downstream drastically.

Keywords: bi-propellant thrusters, CIP-LSM, free-surface flow simulation, impinging jet atomization

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Authors: Maha Zouaoui Khalifa, Hakim Ben Othman, Hussaney Khaled

Abstract:

Prior empirical studies have investigated the economic consequences of accounting conservatism by examining its impact on the cost of equity capital (COEC). However, findings are not conclusive. We assume that inconsistent results of such association may be attributed to the regression models used in data analysis. To address this issue, we re-examine the effect of different dimension of accounting conservatism: unconditional conservatism (U_CONS) and conditional conservatism (C_CONS) on the COEC for a sample of listed firms from Middle Eastern and North Africa (MENA) countries, applying quantile regression (QR) approach developed by Koenker and Basset (1978). While classical ordinary least square (OLS) method is widely used in empirical accounting research, however it may produce inefficient and bias estimates in the case of departures from normality or long tail error distribution. QR method is more powerful than OLS to handle this kind of problem. It allows the coefficient on the independent variables to shift across the distribution of the dependent variable whereas OLS method only estimates the conditional mean effects of a response variable. We find as predicted that U_CONS has a significant positive effect on the COEC however, C_CONS has a negative impact. Findings suggest also that the effect of the two dimensions of accounting conservatism differs considerably across COEC quantiles. Comparing results from QR method with those of OLS, this study throws more lights on the association between accounting conservatism and COEC.

Keywords: unconditional conservatism, conditional conservatism, cost of equity capital, OLS, quantile regression, emerging markets, MENA countries

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Authors: Eni Rahmi, Rasmi Rikmasari, Taufik Soemarsongko

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Background: One of the bad habits that requires a treatment and viewed as a risk factor of the temporomandibular disorder is bruxism. Bruxism defined as an awake and/or asleep parafunctional activities include grinding, gnashing, bracing or clenching of the teeth. In particular circumstances such as an increased frequency of episode, duration and the intensity of masseter contractions, caused phenomenon with pathological consequences, i.e., mandibular remodeling. The remodeling in mandibular angle was associated with the masseter and pterygoid medial muscles attachment which in its insertion area. The aim of this study was to compare the mandibular remodeling between bruxers and non-bruxers with ramus height, gonial angle and bigonial width as parameters, and to identify correlation among those parameters in bruxers, using panoramic radiographic. Methods: This study was conducted on 35 bruxers (10 phasic bruxism patients, 6 tonic bruxism patients, and 19 mixed bruxism patients) and 20 non-bruxers as control group. The data were obtained by using questionary, clinical examination, and radiographic measurement. Panoramic radiograph measurement was done using soft CBCT EPX Impla (E-Woo Korea). The data was analyzed by using Paired T-Test to see differences between parameters in both group and Pearson Correlation Test to evaluate correlation among parameters. Result: There was significant differences between bruxers and non-bruxers in ramus heights (p=0,04), bigonial widths (p=0,001), and gonial angles(p=0,015). The bruxers showed increased ramus heights and bigonial widths, in other hand, the gonial angles decreased. This study also found that there was highly correlation among ramus height, gonial angles, and bigonial widths. Conclusion: the bone remodeling occurred on inferior and posterior border of mandibular angle in bruxism patient, indicated by the form and size differences between bruxers (phasic bruxism, tonic bruxism, and mixed bruxism) with non-bruxers, which shown by panoramic radiograph.

Keywords: bruxism, ramus height, gonial angle, bigonial width

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Authors: Khizar Samiullah Samiullah, Riffat Yasin, Khurrum Feroz, Omer Draz, Memmona Nazish

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New fossil remains of artiodactyl have been recovered from three Late Miocene localities, Lava, Dhok Bun Ameer Khatoon and Hasnoot. These localities belong to lower and middle Siwalik Hills of Pakistan, the Chinji and Dhok Pathan Formation respectively and are remarkably rich in fossils of artiodactyl. The fauna mainly comprises various families of order Artiodactyla; Cervidae, Equidea, Proboscidea, Giraffidea, Rhinocerotidae, Tragulidea, Suidae and Primates. In Chinji Formation Lava and Dhok Bun Ameer Khatoon are located in district Chakwal while in Upper Dhok Pathan Formation the best fossils exposure site is Hasnoot which is located in District Jhelum, Punjab, Pakistan. Specimens described and discussed here include right and left maxilla, isolated upper premolars and molars which have been collected during extensive fieldwork. After morphological and comparative analysis the collection is attributed to Giraffokeryx, Giraffa, Listriodon, Dorcatherium, Selenoportax and Pachyportax. In this study evolutionary status, taxonomy and biogeographical distribution as well as the relationship of different Artiodactyls have been discussed comprehensively. The Palaeoenvironmental studies reveal the persistence of mosaics of diverse habitats ranging from tropical evergreen forest to subtropical ones, closed seasonal woodlands to wooded savannas during the deposition of these outcrops.

Keywords: Artiodactyla, fossil dentition, late Miocene, lower and middle Siwaliks

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Authors: Mohamed A. Hammad, Dzul Azri Mohamed Noor, Syed Azhar Syed Sulaiman, Majed Ahmed Al-Mansoub, Muhammad Qamar

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There is a progressive increase in the prevalence of early onset Type 2 diabetes mellitus. Early detection of Type 2 diabetes enhances the length and/or quality of life which might result from a reduction in the severity, frequency or prevent or delay of its long-term complications. The study aims to determine the onset age for the first diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes mellitus. A retrospective study conducted in the endocrine clinic at Hospital Pulau Pinang in Penang, Malaysia, January- December 2016. Records of 519 patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus were screened to collect demographic data and determine the age of first-time diabetes mellitus diagnosis. Patients classified according to the age of diagnosis, gender, and ethnicity. The study included 519 patients with age (55.6±13.7) years, female 265 (51.1%) and male 254 (48.9%). The ethnicity distribution was Malay 191 (36.8%), Chinese 189 (36.4%) and Indian 139 (26.8%). The age of Type 2 diabetes diagnosis was (42±14.8) years. The female onset of diabetes mellitus was at age (41.5±13.7) years, while male (42.6±13.7) years. Distribution of diabetic onset by ethnicity was Malay at age (40.7±13.7) years, Chinese (43.2±13.7) years and Indian (42.3±13.7) years. Diabetic onset was classified by age as follow; ≤20 years’ cohort was 33 (6.4%) cases. Group >20- ≤40 years was 190 (36.6%) patients, and category >40- ≤60 years was 270 (52%) subjects. On the other hand, the group >60 years was 22 (4.2%) patients. The range of diagnosis was between 10 and 73 years old. Conclusion: Malay and female have an earlier onset of diabetes than Indian, Chinese and male. More than half of the patients had diabetes between 40 and 60 years old. Diabetes mellitus is becoming more common in younger age <40 years. The age at diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes mellitus has decreased with time.

Keywords: age of onset, diabetes diagnosis, diabetes mellitus, Malaysia, outpatients, type 2 diabetes, retrospective study

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Authors: Kolja Them, Johannes Salamon, Harald Ittrich, Michael Kaul, Tobias Knopp

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Superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (SPIONs) are nanoscale magnets which can be biologically functionalized for biomedical applications. Stem cell therapies to repair damaged tissue, magnetic fluid hyperthermia for cancer therapy and targeted drug delivery based on SPIONs are prominent examples where the visualization of a preferably low concentrated SPION distribution is essential. In 2005 a new method for tomographic SPION imaging has been introduced. The method named magnetic particle imaging (MPI) takes advantage of the nanoparticles magnetization change caused by an oscillating, external magnetic field and allows to directly image the time-dependent nanoparticle distribution. The SPION magnetization can be changed by the electron spin dynamics as well as by a mechanical rotation of the nanoparticle. In this work different calibration methods in MPI are investigated for image reconstruction of magnetically labeled stem cells. It is shown that a calibration using rotationally immobilized SPIONs provides a higher quality of stem cell images with fewer artifacts than a calibration using mobile SPIONs. The enhancement of the image quality and the reduction of artifacts enables the localization and identification of a smaller number of magnetically labeled stem cells. This is important for future medical applications where low concentrations of functionalized SPIONs interacting with biological matter have to be localized.

Keywords: biomedical imaging, iron oxide nanoparticles, magnetic particle imaging, stem cell imaging

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Authors: Cyrillus Prabandana

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Supply chain optimisation requires multiple factors as consideration or constraints. These factors are including but not limited to demand forecasting, raw material fulfilment, production capacity, inventory level, facilities locations, transportation means, and manpower availability. By knowing all manageable factors involved and assuming the uncertainty with pre-defined percentage factors, an integrated supply chain model could be developed to manage various business scenarios. This paper analyse the utilisation of geographical point of view to develop an integrated supply chain network model to optimise the distribution of finished product appropriately according to forecasted demand and available supply. The supply chain optimisation model shows that small change in one supply chain constraint is possible to largely impact other constraints, and the new information from the model should be able to support the decision making process. The model was focused on three areas, i.e. raw material fulfilment, production capacity and finished products transportation. To validate the model suitability, it was implemented in a project aimed to optimise the concrete supply chain in a mining location. The high level of operations complexity and involvement of multiple stakeholders in the concrete supply chain is believed to be sufficient to give the illustration of the larger scope. The implementation of this geographical supply chain network modeling resulted an optimised concrete supply chain from raw material fulfilment until finished products distribution to each customer, which indicated by lower percentage of missed concrete order fulfilment to customer.

Keywords: decision making, geographical supply chain modeling, supply chain optimisation, supply chain

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Authors: Mohamed Malek Khenissi, Mohamed Montassar Ben Slama, Anis Belhaj Mohamed, Moncef Saidi

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Northern Tunisia is well known by its different and complex structural and geological zones that have been the result of a geodynamic history that extends from the early Mesozoic era to the actual period. One of these zones is the salt province, where the Halokinesis process is manifested by a number of NE/SW salt structures such as Jebel Ech-Cheid which represents masses of materials characterized by a high plasticity and low density. The salt masses extrusions that have been developed due to an extension that started from the late Triassic to late Cretaceous. The evolution of salt bodies within sedimentary basins have not only contributed to modify the architecture of the basin, but it also has certain geochemical effects which touch mainly source rocks that surround it. It has been demonstrated that the presence of salt structures within sedimentary basins can influence its temperature distribution and thermal history. Moreover, it has been creating heat flux anomalies that may affect the maturity of organic matter and the timing of hydrocarbon generation. Field samples of the Bahloul source rock (Cenomanan-Tunonian) were collected from different sights from all around Ech Cheid salt structure and evaluated using Rock-eval pyrolysis and GC/MS techniques in order to assess the degree of maturity evolution and the heat flux anomalies in the different zones analyze. The Total organic Carbon (TOC) values range between 1 to 9% and the (Tmax) ranges between 424 and 445°C, also the distribution of the source rock biomarkers both saturated and aromatic changes in a regular fashions with increasing maturity and this are shown in the chromatography results such as Ts/(Ts+Tm) ratios, 22S/(22S+22R) values for C31 homohopanes, ββ/(ββ+αα)20R and 20S/(20S+20R) ratios for C29 steranes which gives a consistent maturity indications and assessment of the field samples. These analyses are carried to interpret the maturity evolution and the heat flux around Ech Cheid salt structure through the geological history. These analyses also aim to demonstrate that the salt structure can have a direct effect on the geothermal gradient of the basin and on the maturity of the Bahloul Formation source rock. The organic matter has reached different stages of thermal maturity, but delineate a general increasing maturity trend. Our study confirms that the J. Ech Cheid salt body have on the first hand: a huge influence on the local distribution of anoxic depocentre at least within Cenomanian-Turonian time. In the second hand, the thermal anomaly near the salt mass has affected the maturity of Bahloul Formation.

Keywords: Bahloul formation, depocentre, GC/MS, rock-eval

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Authors: Shailja Thakur

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In this paper it is shown that how farmers are suffering from all sides including vagaries of weather then price fluctuations, demand supply constraints, poor soil health etc. Also the ICT can prove to be of great help if incorporated rightly into Indian agriculture. Some innovative ways to reward farmers and distribution of subsidies to them can improve the current scenario.

Keywords: cost of farming, information and communication technology, innovative steps, roof gardening, vermicomposting

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Authors: Seyed Sadegh Naseralavi, Sadegh Balaghi, Ehsan Khojastehfar

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Time history seismic analysis is supposed to be the most accurate method to predict the seismic demand of structures. On the other hand, the required computational time of this method toward achieving the result is its main deficiency. While being applied in optimization process, in which the structure must be analyzed thousands of time, reducing the required computational time of seismic analysis of structures makes the optimization algorithms more practical. Apparently, the invented approximate methods produce some amount of errors in comparison with exact time history analysis but the recently proposed method namely, Complete Quadratic Combination (CQC) and Sum Root of the Sum of Squares (SRSS) drastically reduces the computational time by combination of peak responses in each mode. In the present research, the Basic Modal Displacement (BMD) method is introduced and applied towards estimation of seismic demand of main structure. Seismic demand of sampled structure is estimated by calculation of modal displacement of basic structure (in which the modal displacement has been calculated). Shear steel sampled structures are selected as case studies. The error applying the introduced method is calculated by comparison of the estimated seismic demands with exact time history dynamic analysis. The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated by application of three types of earthquakes (in view of time of peak ground acceleration).

Keywords: time history dynamic analysis, basic modal displacement, earthquake-induced demands, shear steel structures

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Authors: Ranjit A. Patil, Yung Liou, Yuan-Ron Ma

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It has been observed that when the size of metals such as, Au, Zn, Ag, Cu, Te, and metal oxides is reduced to several nano-meters, it starts to show further interesting properties. These new properties boost the use of nano-structures to produce attractive functional materials or used as promising building blocks in electronic devices. Present work describes the synthesis of bismuth (Bi) nanoparticles (NP’s) having uniform morphology, high crystallinity, and single phase purity by the temperature assisted pulsed laser deposition (TAPLD). Pulsed Laser deposition (PLD) technique is one of the promising methods to synthesize nano-structures. It can provide the stable nucleation sites in orders of magnitudes higher than for MBE and sputtering deposition. The desired size of purely metallic Bi NP’s of can be easily controlled by adjusting the temperature of the substrate varying from 1000 C to 250 0C. When the temperatures of the substrate raised step wise the average size of Bi NP’s appeared to be increased by maintaining the uniform distribution of NP’s on the Si surfaces. The diameter range of NP’s is ~33-84 nm shows size distribution constrained in the limited range. The EDS results show that the 0D Bi NP’s synthesized at high temperature (250 0C) at a high vacuum still remained in a metallic phase. Moreover, XRD, TEM and SAED results showed that these Bi NP’s are hexagonal in crystalline in a space group R -3 m and no traces of bismuth oxide, confirming that Bi NP’s synthesized at wide range of temperatures persisted of the pure Bi-metallic phase.

Keywords: metal nano particles, bismuth, pulsed laser deposition (PLD), nano particles, temperature assisted growth

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Authors: Vabya Kumar Pandit, Mudit Mittal, N. Prahlad Rao, Ramnath Babu

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TeamIndus is the only Indian team competing for the Google Lunar XPRIZE(GLXP). The GLXP is a global competition to challenge the private entities to soft land a rover on the moon, travel minimum 500 meters and transmit high definition images and videos to Earth. Towards this goal, the TeamIndus strategy is to design and developed lunar lander that will deliver a rover onto the surface of the moon which will accomplish GLXP mission objectives. This paper showcases the various system level noise control techniques adopted by Electrical Distribution System (EDS), to achieve the required Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMC) of the spacecraft. The design guidelines followed to control Electromagnetic Interference by proper electronic package design, grounding, shielding, filtering, and cable routing within the stipulated mass budget, are explained. The paper also deals with the challenges of achieving Electromagnetic Cleanliness in presence of various Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) and In-House developed components. The methods of minimizing Electrostatic Discharge (ESD) by identifying the potential noise sources, susceptible areas for charge accumulation and the methodology to prevent arcing inside spacecraft are explained. The paper then provides the EMC requirements matrix derived from the mission requirements to meet the overall Electromagnetic compatibility of the Spacecraft.

Keywords: electromagnetic compatibility, electrostatic discharge, electrical distribution systems, grounding schemes, light weight harnessing

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Authors: Deepa S N, Srinivasan a D, Veeramanju K T

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The power transformer is a critical equipment in the transmission and distribution network that must be managed to ensure uninterrupted power service. The liquid insulation is essential for the proper functioning of the transformer, as it serves as both coolant and insulating medium, which influences the transformer’s durability. Further, the insulating state of a power transformer has a significant impact on its reliability. Mineral oil derived from petroleum crude oil has been employed as liquid dielectrics for decades due to its superior functional characteristics, however as a resource for the same are getting depleted over the years. Research is undertaken across the globe to identify a viable substitute for mineral oil. Further, alternate insulating oils are being investigated for better environmental impact, biodegradability and economics. Several combinations of vegetable oil derived natural esters are being inspected by researchers across the globe in these domains. In this work, mineral oil is blended with soyabean oil with various proportions and dielectric properties such as dielectric breakdown voltage, relative permittivity, dissipation factor, viscosity, flash and fire point have been investigated according to international standards. A quantitative comparison is made among various samples and is observed that the blended oil sample of equal proportion of mineral oil and soyabean oil, MO50+SO50 exhibits superior dielectric properties such as breakdown voltage of 65kV, dissipation factor of 0.0044, relative permittivity of 3.1680 that are closer to the range of values recommended for power transformer applications. Also, Breakdown voltage values of all the investigated oil samples obeyed the Weibull and Normal probability distribution.

Keywords: blended oil, dielectric breakdown, liquid insulation, power transformer

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Authors: Takashi Nakamura

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In the Tokyo metropolitan area, traffic congestion and long commute times are caused by overconcentration in the central area. To resolve these problems, a core business city development policy was adopted in 1988. The core business cities, which include Yokohama, Chiba, Saitama, Tachikawa, and others, have designated business facilities accumulation districts where assistance measures are applied. Focusing on Yokohama city, this study investigates the trends in the number of offices, employees, and commuters at 2001 and 2012 Economic Census, as well as the average commute time in the Tokyo metropolitan area from 2005 to 2015 Metropolitan Transportation Census. Surveys were administered in 2001 and 2012 Economic Census to participants who worked in Yokohama, according to their distribution in the city's 1,757 subregions. Four main findings emerged: (1) The number of offices increased in Yokohama when the number of offices decreased in the Tokyo metropolitan area overall. Additionally, the number of employees at Yokohama increased. (2) The number of commuters to Tokyo's central area increased from Saitama prefecture, Tokyo Tama area, and Tokyo central area. However, it decreased from other areas. (3) The average commute time in the Tokyo metropolitan area was 67.7 minutes in 2015, a slight decrease from 2005 and 2010. (4) The number of employees at business facilities accumulation districts in Yokohama city increased greatly.

Keywords: core business city development policy, commute time, number of employees, Yokohama city, distribution of employees

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Authors: Vallence Ngabo Maniragaba

Abstract:

This study aimed at examining the variations of undernutrition among children below 5 years of age in Uganda. The approach of spatial and spatiotemporal analysis helped in identifying cluster patterns, hot spots and emerging hot spots. Data from the 6 Uganda Demographic and Health Surveys spanning from 1990 to 2016 were used with the main outcome variable being undernutrition among children <5 years of age. All data that were relevant to this study were retrieved from the survey datasets and combined with the 214 shape files for the districts of Uganda to enable spatial and spatiotemporal analysis. Spatial maps with the spatial distribution of the prevalence of undernutrition, both in space and time, were generated using ArcGIS Pro version 2.8. Moran’s I, an index of spatial autocorrelation, rules out doubts of spatial randomness in order to identify spatially clustered patterns of hot or cold spot areas. Furthermore, space-time cubes were generated to establish the trend in undernutrition as well as to mirror its variations over time and across Uganda. Moreover, emerging hot spot analysis was done to help identify the patterns of undernutrition over time. The results indicate a heterogeneous distribution of undernutrition across Uganda and the same variations were also evident over time. Moran’s I index confirmed spatial clustered patterns as opposed to random distributions of undernutrition prevalence. Four hot spot areas, namely; the Karamoja, the Sebei, the West Nile and the Toro regions were significantly evident, most of the central parts of Uganda were identified as cold spot clusters, while most of Western Uganda, the Acholi and the Lango regions had no statistically significant spatial patterns by the year 2016. The spatio-temporal analysis identified the Karamoja and Sebei regions as clusters of persistent, consecutive and intensifying hot spots, West Nile region was identified as a sporadic hot spot area while the Toro region was identified with both sporadic and emerging hotspots. In conclusion, undernutrition is a silent pandemic that needs to be handled with both hands. At 31.2 percent, the prevalence is still very high and unpleasant. The distribution across the country is nonuniform with some areas such as the Karamoja, the West Nile, the Sebei and the Toro regions being epicenters of undernutrition in Uganda. Over time, the same areas have experienced and exhibited high undernutrition prevalence. Policymakers, as well as the implementers, should bear in mind the spatial variations across the country and prioritize hot spot areas in order to have efficient, timely and region-specific interventions.

Keywords: undernutrition, spatial autocorrelation, hotspots analysis, geographically weighted regressions, emerging hotspots analysis, under-fives, Uganda

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Authors: Dmitry V. Pasynkov, Ivan A. Egoshin, Alexey A. Kolchev, Ivan V. Kliouchkin

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In most cases, typical cysts are easily recognized at ultrasonography. The specificity of this method for typical cysts reaches 98%, and it is usually considered as gold standard for typical cyst diagnosis. However, it is necessary to have all the following features to conclude the typical cyst: clear margin, the absence of internal echoes and dorsal acoustic enhancement. At the same time, not every breast cyst is typical. It is especially characteristic for protein-contained cysts that may have significant internal echoes. On the other hand, some solid lesions (predominantly malignant) may have cystic appearance and may be falsely accepted as cysts. Therefore we tried to develop the automatic method of cystic and solid breast lesions differentiation. Materials and methods. The input data were the ultrasonography digital images with the 256-gradations of gray color (Medison SA8000SE, Siemens X150, Esaote MyLab C). Identification of the lesion on these images was performed in two steps. On the first one, the region of interest (or contour of lesion) was searched and selected. Selection of such region is carried out using the sigmoid filter where the threshold is calculated according to the empirical distribution function of the image brightness and, if necessary, it was corrected according to the average brightness of the image points which have the highest gradient of brightness. At the second step, the identification of the selected region to one of lesion groups by its statistical characteristics of brightness distribution was made. The following characteristics were used: entropy, coefficients of the linear and polynomial regression, quantiles of different orders, an average gradient of brightness, etc. For determination of decisive criterion of belonging to one of lesion groups (cystic or solid) the training set of these characteristics of brightness distribution separately for benign and malignant lesions were received. To test our approach we used a set of 217 ultrasonic images of 107 cystic (including 53 atypical, difficult for bare eye differentiation) and 110 solid lesions. All lesions were cytologically and/or histologically confirmed. Visual identification was performed by trained specialist in breast ultrasonography. Results. Our system correctly distinguished all (107, 100%) typical cysts, 107 of 110 (97.3%) solid lesions and 50 of 53 (94.3%) atypical cysts. On the contrary, with the bare eye it was possible to identify correctly all (107, 100%) typical cysts, 96 of 110 (87.3%) solid lesions and 32 of 53 (60.4%) atypical cysts. Conclusion. Automatic approach significantly surpasses the visual assessment performed by trained specialist. The difference is especially large for atypical cysts and hypoechoic solid lesions with the clear margin. This data may have a clinical significance.

Keywords: breast cyst, breast solid lesion, differentiation, ultrasonography

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Authors: Salma El Hajjami, Jamal Malki, Alain Bouju, Mohammed Berrada

Abstract:

With the expansion of machine learning and data mining in the context of Big Data analytics, the common problem that affects data is class imbalance. It refers to an imbalanced distribution of instances belonging to each class. This problem is present in many real world applications such as fraud detection, network intrusion detection, medical diagnostics, etc. In these cases, data instances labeled negatively are significantly more numerous than the instances labeled positively. When this difference is too large, the learning system may face difficulty when tackling this problem, since it is initially designed to work in relatively balanced class distribution scenarios. Another important problem, which usually accompanies these imbalanced data, is the overlapping instances between the two classes. It is commonly referred to as noise or overlapping data. In this article, we propose an approach called: One Side Behavioral Noise Reduction (OSBNR). This approach presents a way to deal with the problem of class imbalance in the presence of a high noise level. OSBNR is based on two steps. Firstly, a cluster analysis is applied to groups similar instances from the minority class into several behavior clusters. Secondly, we select and eliminate the instances of the majority class, considered as behavioral noise, which overlap with behavior clusters of the minority class. The results of experiments carried out on a representative public dataset confirm that the proposed approach is efficient for the treatment of class imbalances in the presence of noise.

Keywords: machine learning, imbalanced data, data mining, big data

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Authors: Khalifa Maha, Ben Othman Hakim, Khaled Hussainey

Abstract:

Prior empirical studies have investigated the economic consequences of accounting conservatism by examining its impact on the cost of equity capital (COEC). However, findings are not conclusive. We assume that inconsistent results of such association may be attributed to the regression models used in data analysis. To address this issue, we re-examine the effect of different dimension of accounting conservatism: unconditional conservatism (U_CONS) and conditional conservatism (C_CONS) on the COEC for a sample of listed firms from Middle Eastern and North Africa (MENA) countries, applying quantile regression (QR) approach developed by Koenker and Basset (1978). While classical ordinary least square (OLS) method is widely used in empirical accounting research, however it may produce inefficient and bias estimates in the case of departures from normality or long tail error distribution. QR method is more powerful than OLS to handle this kind of problem. It allows the coefficient on the independent variables to shift across the distribution of the dependent variable whereas OLS method only estimates the conditional mean effects of a response variable. We find as predicted that U_CONS has a significant positive effect on the COEC however, C_CONS has a negative impact. Findings suggest also that the effect of the two dimensions of accounting conservatism differs considerably across COEC quantiles. Comparing results from QR method with those of OLS, this study throws more lights on the association between accounting conservatism and COEC.

Keywords: unconditional conservatism, conditional conservatism, cost of equity capital, OLS, quantile regression, emerging markets, MENA countries

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Authors: Zeinab Haji Abolhasani, Romeo Marian, Lee Luong

Abstract:

This paper and its companions (Part II, Part III) will concentrate on optimizing a class of supply chain problems known as Multi- Commodities Consumer Supply Chain (MCCSC) problem. MCCSC problem belongs to production-distribution (P-D) planning category. It aims to determine facilities location, consumers’ allocation, and facilities configuration to minimize total cost (CT) of the entire network. These facilities can be manufacturer units (MUs), distribution centres (DCs), and retailers/end-users (REs) but not limited to them. To address this problem, three major tasks should be undertaken. At the first place, a mixed integer non-linear programming (MINP) mathematical model is developed. Then, system’s behaviors under different conditions will be observed using a simulation modeling tool. Finally, the most optimum solution (minimum CT) of the system will be obtained using a multi-objective optimization technique. Due to the large size of the problem, and the uncertainties in finding the most optimum solution, integration of modeling and simulation methodologies is proposed followed by developing new approach known as GASG. It is a genetic algorithm on the basis of granular simulation which is the subject of the methodology of this research. In part II, MCCSC is simulated using discrete-event simulation (DES) device within an integrated environment of SimEvents and Simulink of MATLAB® software package followed by a comprehensive case study to examine the given strategy. Also, the effect of genetic operators on the obtained optimal/near optimal solution by the simulation model will be discussed in part III.

Keywords: supply chain, genetic algorithm, optimization, simulation, discrete event system

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Authors: E. Yarar, E. A. Guven, S. Karabay

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In this study, a comprehensive simulation was made for the cold tube drawing with fixed plug. The cold tube drawing process is preferred due to its high surface quality and the high mechanical properties. In drawing processes applied to materials with low plastic deformability, cracks can occur on the surfaces and the process efficiency decreases. The aim of the work is to investigate the effects of different drawing parameters on drawing forces and stresses. In the simulations, optimum conditions were investigated for four different materials, Ti64Al4V, AA5052, AISI4140, and C365. One of the most important parameters for the cold drawing process is the die angle. Three dies were designed for the analysis with semi die angles of 5°, 10°, and 15°. Three different parameters were used for the friction coefficient between die and the material. In the simulations, reduction of area and the drawing speed is kept constant. Drawing is done in one pass. According to the simulation results, the highest drawing forces were obtained in Ti64Al4V. As the semi die angle increases, the drawing forces decrease. The change in semi die angle was most effective on Ti64Al4V. Increasing the coefficient of friction is another effect that increases the drawing forces. The increase in the friction coefficient has also increased in drawing stresses. The increase in die angle also increased the drawing stress distribution for the other three materials outside C365. According to the results of the analysis, it is found that the designed drawing die is suitable for drawing. The lowest drawing stress distribution and drawing forces were obtained for AA5052. Drawing die parameters have a direct effect on the results. In addition, lubricants used for drawing have a significant effect on drawing forces.

Keywords: cold tube drawing, drawing force, drawing stress, semi die angle

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Authors: Tsu-Yun Chiu, Tsung-Hsueh Lu, Tain-Junn Cheng

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Background: Traditional chronic disease management did not pay attention to effects of geographic factors on the compliance of treatment regime, which resulted in geographic inequality in outcomes of chronic disease management. This study aims to examine the geographic distribution and clustering of quality indicators of diabetes care. Method: We first extracted address, demographic information and quality of care indicators (number of visits, complications, prescription and laboratory records) of patients with diabetes for 2014 from medical information system in a medical center in Tainan City, Taiwan, and the patients’ addresses were transformed into district- and village-level data. We then compared the differences of geographic distribution and clustering of quality of care indicators between districts and villages. Despite the descriptive results, rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for indices of care in order to compare the quality of diabetes care among different areas. Results: A total of 23,588 patients with diabetes were extracted from the hospital data system; whereas 12,716 patients’ information and medical records were included to the following analysis. More than half of the subjects in this study were male and between 60-79 years old. Furthermore, the quality of diabetes care did indeed vary by geographical levels. Thru the smaller level, we could point out clustered areas more specifically. Fuguo Village (of Yongkang District) and Zhiyi Village (of Sinhua District) were found to be “hotspots” for nephropathy and cerebrovascular disease; while Wangliau Village and Erwang Village (of Yongkang District) would be “coldspots” for lowest proportion of ≥80% compliance to blood lipids examination. On the other hand, Yuping Village (in Anping District) was the area with the lowest proportion of ≥80% compliance to all laboratory examination. Conclusion: In spite of examining the geographic distribution, calculating rate ratios and their 95% CI could also be a useful and consistent method to test the association. This information is useful for health planners, diabetes case managers and other affiliate practitioners to organize care resources to the areas most needed.

Keywords: catchment area of healthcare, chronic disease management, Geographic information system, quality of diabetes care

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Authors: Jianfeng Hu

Abstract:

Personal authentication based on electroencephalography (EEG) signals is one of the important field for the biometric technology. More and more researchers have used EEG signals as data source for biometric. However, there are some disadvantages for biometrics based on EEG signals. The proposed method employs entropy measures for feature extraction from EEG signals. Four type of entropies measures, sample entropy (SE), fuzzy entropy (FE), approximate entropy (AE) and spectral entropy (PE), were deployed as feature set. In a silhouettes calculation, the distance from each data point in a cluster to all another point within the same cluster and to all other data points in the closest cluster are determined. Thus silhouettes provide a measure of how well a data point was classified when it was assigned to a cluster and the separation between them. This feature renders silhouettes potentially well suited for assessing cluster quality in personal authentication methods. In this study, “silhouettes scores” was used for assessing the cluster quality of k-means clustering algorithm is well suited for comparing the performance of each EEG dataset. The main goals of this study are: (1) to represent each target as a tuple of multiple feature sets, (2) to assign a suitable measure to each feature set, (3) to combine different feature sets, (4) to determine the optimal feature weighting. Using precision/recall evaluations, the effectiveness of feature weighting in clustering was analyzed. EEG data from 22 subjects were collected. Results showed that: (1) It is possible to use fewer electrodes (3-4) for personal authentication. (2) There was the difference between each electrode for personal authentication (p<0.01). (3) There is no significant difference for authentication performance among feature sets (except feature PE). Conclusion: The combination of k-means clustering algorithm and silhouette approach proved to be an accurate method for personal authentication based on EEG signals.

Keywords: personal authentication, K-mean clustering, electroencephalogram, EEG, silhouettes

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Authors: Guang Zou, Kian Banisoleiman, Arturo González

Abstract:

Crack initiation and propagation threatens structural integrity of welded joints and normally inspections are assigned based on crack propagation models. However, the approach based on crack propagation models may not be applicable for some high-quality welded joints, because the initial flaws in them may be so small that it may take long time for the flaws to develop into a detectable size. This raises a concern regarding the inspection planning of high-quality welded joins, as there is no generally acceptable approach for modeling the whole fatigue process that includes the crack initiation period. In order to address the issue, this paper reviews treatment methods for crack initiation period and initial crack size in crack propagation models applied to inspection planning. Generally, there are four approaches, by: 1) Neglecting the crack initiation period and fitting a probabilistic distribution for initial crack size based on statistical data; 2) Extrapolating the crack propagation stage to a very small fictitious initial crack size, so that the whole fatigue process can be modeled by crack propagation models; 3) Assuming a fixed detectable initial crack size and fitting a probabilistic distribution for crack initiation time based on specimen tests; and, 4) Modeling the crack initiation and propagation stage separately using small crack growth theories and Paris law or similar models. The conclusion is that in view of trade-off between accuracy and computation efforts, calibration of a small fictitious initial crack size to S-N curves is the most efficient approach.

Keywords: crack initiation, fatigue reliability, inspection planning, welded joints

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Authors: Suneeta Gireesh Panicker

Abstract:

Aim: Aminopeptidase P (APP) is an enzyme that has specificity for proline, can specifically cleave Xaa-Proline peptides and is a metallo-aminopeptidase. The bonds nearby to the imino acid proline are tough to cleave by many peptidases, but APP can specifically break peptide bonds engaged with proline. Membrane-bound form and a cytosolic form are the two forms in which this enzyme exists. The exact physiological function of APP remains unclear and hence the present work attempts to determine it. Methods: In the present study, the expression pattern of cytosolic Aminopeptidase P (DAP) was determined in all the embryonic stages and larval stages of wild-type Drosophila by using polyclonal monospecific antibodies. To show the presence of DAP RNA in embryonic and larval stages, RNA in situ hybridization was performed. DAP promoter-LacZ fusion reporter gene vector was used to construct transgenic embryos to study the regulation pattern of DAP. To study the DAP expression profile, a transgenic fly consisting of a DAP promoter with β-gal and GFP reporter genes in front of it was constructed. Results: DAP protein expression was observed in neuroectodermal cells, posterior midgut primordium, proctodeum, ventral neuroblast and primordial stomatogastric nervous system. It was observed in the ventral cord and midgut in stage 12. The completely developed embryos showed the intense occurrence of it in the ventral cord and gut region. The eye-antennal disc, wing disc and leg disc also showed the presence of DAP protein. LacZ expression in transgenic embryos also showed the same pattern. Conclusion: Similar to various known multiple-functional proteins, DAP could be one with different functions at different stages and in different cells. Data presented here designates DAP functions in the early embryonic and imaginal dics differentiation and development, suggesting that it may be required for the metabolism of proteins like neuropeptides and tachykinins.

Keywords: aminopeptidase P, in situ hybridization, transgenic fly, embryonic stages

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Authors: E. O. Clarke, O. J. Aderinola, O. A. Adeboyejo, M. A. Anetekhai

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Aims: The study is aimed at establishing the influence of some physical and chemical parameters on the abundance, distribution pattern and seasonal variations of the planktonic crustacean populations. Place and Duration of Study: A premier investigation into the dynamics of planktonic crustacean populations in Ologe lagoon was carried out from January 2011 to December 2012. Study Design: The study covered identification, temporal abundance, spatial distribution and diversity of the planktonic crustacea. Methodology: Standard techniques were used to collect samples from eleven stations covering five proximal satellite towns (Idoluwo, Oto, Ibiye, Obele, and Gbanko) bordering the lagoon. Data obtained were statistically analyzed using linear regression and hierarchical clustering. Results:Thirteen (13) planktonic crustacean populations were identified. Total percentage abundance was highest for Bosmina species (20%) and lowest for Polyphemus species (0.8%). The Pearson’s correlation coefficient (“r” values) between total planktonic crustacean population and some physical and chemical parameters showed that positive correlations having low level of significance occurred with salinity (r = 0.042) (sig = 0.184) and with surface water dissolved oxygen (r = 0.299) (sig = 0.155). Linear regression plots indicated that, the total population of planktonic crustacea were mainly influenced and only increased with an increase in value of surface water temperature (Rsq = 0.791) and conductivity (Rsq = 0.589). The total population of planktonic crustacea had a near neutral (zero correlation) with the surface water dissolved oxygen and thus, does not significantly change with the level of the surface water dissolved oxygen. The correlations were positive with NO3-N (midstream) at Ibiye (Rsq =0.022) and (downstream) Gbanko (Rsq =0.013), PO4-P at Ibiye (Rsq =0.258), K at Idoluwo (Rsq =0.295) and SO4-S at Oto (Rsq = 0.094) and Gbanko (Rsq = 0.457). The Berger-Parker Dominance Index (BPDI) showed that the most dominant species was Bosmina species (BPDI = 1.000), followed by Calanus species (BPDI = 1.254). Clusters by squared Euclidan distances using average linkage between groups showed proximities, transcending the borders of genera. Conclusion: The results revealed that planktonic crustacean population in Ologe lagoon undergo seasonal perturbations, were highly influenced by nutrient, metal and organic matter inputs from river Owoh, Agbara industrial estate and surrounding farmlands and were patchy in spatial distribution.

Keywords: diversity, dominance, perturbations, richness, crustacea, lagoon

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Authors: Amin Akbari, Dongcai Wang, Huiru Li, Xiaoping Du, Jie Chen

Abstract:

The effect of vibrational force (VF) on accelerating orthodontic tooth movement depends on the level of delivered stimulation to the tooth in terms of peak load (PL), which requires contacts between the tooth and the VF device. A personalized device ensures the contacts, but the resulting PL distribution on the teeth is unknown. Furthermore, it is unclear whether the PL on particular teeth can be adjusted to the prescribed values. The objective of this study was to investigate the efficacy of apersonalized VF device in controlling the level of stimulation on two teeth, the mandibular canines and 2nd molars. A 3-D finite element (FE) model of human dentition, including teeth, PDL, and alveolar bone, was created from the cone beam computed tomography images of an anonymous subject. The VF was applied to the teeth through a VFdevice consisting of a mouthpiece with engraved tooth profile of the subject and a VF source that applied 0.3 N force with the frequency of 30 Hz. The dentition and mouthpiece were meshed using 10-node tetrahedral elements. Interface elements were created at the interfaces between the teeth and the mouthpiece. The upper and lower teeth bite on the mouthpiece to receive the vibration. The depth of engraved individual tooth profile could be adjusted, which was accomplished by adding a layer of material as an interference or removing a layer of material as a clearance to change the PL on the tooth. The interference increases the PL while the clearance decreases it. Fivemouthpiece design cases were simulated, which included a mouthpiece without interference/clearance; the mouthpieces with bilateral interferences on both mandibular canines and 2nd molars with magnitudes of 0.1, 0.15, and 0.2-mm, respectively; and mouthpiece with bilateral 0.3-mm clearances on the four teeth. Then, the force distributions on the entire dentition were compared corresponding to these adjustments. The PL distribution on the teeth is uneven when there is no interference or clearance. Among all teeth, the anterior segment receives the highest level of PL. Adding 0.1, 0.15, and 0.2-mm interferences to the canines and 2nd molars bilaterally leads to increase of the PL on the canines by 10, 62, and 73 percent and on the 2nd molar by 14, 55, and 87 percent, respectively. Adding clearances to the canines and 2nd molars by removing the contactsbetween these teeth and the mouthpiece results in zero PL on them. Moreover, introducing interference to mandibular canines and 2nd molarsredistributes the PL on the entireteeth. The share of the PL on the anterior teeth are reduced. The use of the personalized mouthpiece ensures contactsof the teeth to the mouthpiece so that all teeth can be stimulated. However, the PL distribution is uneven. Adding interference between a tooth and the mouthpiece increases the PL while introducing clearance decreases the PL. As a result, the PL is redistributed. This study confirms that the level of VF stimulation on the individual tooth can be adjusted to a prescribed value.

Keywords: finite element method, orthodontic treatment, stress analysis, tooth movement, vibrational force

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Authors: Hedi Dghim, Ahmed El-Naggar, Istvan Erlich

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Power electronic converters are being introduced in low voltage (LV) grids at an increasingly rapid rate due to the growing adoption of power electronic-based home appliances in residential grid. Photovoltaic (PV) systems are considered one of the potential installed renewable energy sources in distribution power systems. This trend has led to high distortion in the supply voltage which consequently produces harmonic currents in the network and causes an inherent voltage unbalance. In order to investigate the effect of harmonic distortions, a case study of a typical LV grid configuration with high penetration of 3-phase and 1-phase rooftop mounted PV from southern Germany was first considered. Electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations were then carried out under the MATLAB/Simulink environment which contain detailed models for power electronic-based loads, ohmic-based loads as well as 1- and 3-phase PV. Note that, the switching patterns of the power electronic circuits were considered in this study. Measurements were eventually performed to analyze the distortion levels when PV operating under different solar irradiance. The characteristics of the load-side harmonic impedances were analyzed, and their harmonic contributions were evaluated for different distortion levels. The effect of the high penetration of PV on the harmonic distortion of both positive and negative sequences was also investigated. The simulation results are presented based on case studies. The current distortion levels are in agreement with relevant standards, otherwise the Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) increases under low PV power generation due to its inverse relation with the fundamental current.

Keywords: harmonic distortion analysis, power quality, PV systems, residential distribution system

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Authors: Po-Jung Huang, Chi-Ching Lee, Bertrand Chin-Ming Tan, Yuan-Ming Yeh, Julie Lichieh Chu, Tin-Wen Chen, Cheng-Yang Lee, Ruei-Chi Gan, Hsuan Liu, Petrus Tang

Abstract:

Whole-exome sequencing focuses on the protein coding regions of disease/cancer associated genes based on a priori knowledge is the most cost-effective method to study the association between genetic alterations and disease. Recent advances in high throughput sequencing technologies and proteomic techniques has provided an opportunity to integrate genomics and proteomics, allowing readily detectable mutated peptides corresponding to mutated genes. Since sequence database search is the most widely used method for protein identification using Mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics technology, a mutant proteome database is required to better approximate the real protein pool to improve disease-associated mutated protein identification. Large-scale whole exome/genome sequencing studies were launched by National Cancer Institute (NCI), Broad Institute, and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), which provide not only a comprehensive report on the analysis of coding variants in diverse samples cell lines but a invaluable resource for extensive research community. No existing database is available for the collection of mutant protein sequences related to the identified variants in these studies. CMPD is designed to address this issue, serving as a bridge between genomic data and proteomic studies and focusing on protein sequence-altering variations originated from both germline and cancer-associated somatic variations.

Keywords: TCGA, cancer, mutant, proteome

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Authors: Hassan Gholibeigian, Kazem Gholibeigian

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In this paper, our goal is determination of loading versus time in crust. For this goal, we present a computational procedure to propose a cumulative strain energy time profile which can be used to predict the approximate location and time of the next major earthquake (M > 4.5) along a specific fault, which we believe, is more accurate than many of the methods presently in use. In the coming pages, after a short review of the research works presently going on in the area of earthquake analysis and prediction, earthquake mechanisms in both the jerk and sequence earthquake direction is discussed, then our computational procedure is presented using differential equations of equilibrium which govern the nonlinear dynamic response of a system of finite elements, modified with an extra term to account for the jerk produced during the quake. We then employ Von Mises developed model for the stress strain relationship in our calculations, modified with the addition of an extra term to account for thermal effects. For calculation of the strain energy the idea of Pulsating Mantle Hypothesis (PMH) is used. This hypothesis, in brief, states that the mantle is under diurnal cyclic pulsating loads due to unbalanced gravitational attraction of the sun and the moon. A brief discussion is done on the Denali fault as a case study. The cumulative strain energy is then graphically represented versus time. At the end, based on some hypothetic earthquake data, the final results are verified.

Keywords: pulsating mantle hypothesis, inner core’s dislocation, outer core’s bulge, constitutive model, transient hydro-magneto-thermo-mechanical load, diurnal stress, jerk, fault behaviour

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