Search results for: call drop probability
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2491

Search results for: call drop probability

931 The Urgency of Berth Deepening at the Port of Durban

Authors: Rowen Naicker, Dhiren Allopi

Abstract:

One of the major problems the Port of Durban is experiencing is addressing shallow spots aggravated by megaships that berth. In the recent years, the vessels that call at the Port have increased in size which calls for draughts that are much deeper. For this reason, these larger vessels can only berth under high tide to avoid the risk of running aground. In addition to this, the ships cannot sail in fully laden which does not make it feasible for ship owners. Further during the berthing materials are displaced from the seabed which result in shallow spots being developed. The permitted draft (under-keel allowance) for the Durban Container Terminal (DCT) is currently 12.2 m. Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) are currently investing in a dredging fleet worth almost two billion rand. One of the highlights of this investment would be the building of grab hopper dredger that would be dedicated to the Port by 2017. TNPA are trying various techniques to dissolve the reduction of draughts by implementing dredging maintenance projects but is this sufficient? The ideal resolution would be the deepening and widening of the berths. Plans for this project is in place, but the implementation process is a matter of urgency. The intention of this project will be to accommodate three big vessels rather than two which in turn will improve the turnaround time in the port. The berthing will then no longer depend on high tide to avoid ships running aground. The aim of this paper is to prove the implementation of deepening and widening of the Port of Durban is a matter of urgency. If the plan to deepen and widen the berths at DCT is delayed it will mean a loss of business for the South African economy. If larger vessels cannot be accommodated in the Port of Durban, it will bypass the busiest container handling facility in the Southern hemisphere. Shipping companies are compelled to use larger ships as opposed to smaller vessels to lower port and fuel costs. A delay in the expansion of DCT could also result in an escalation of costs.

Keywords: DCT, deepening, berth, port

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930 Selective Recovery and Molecular Identification of Laccase-Producing Bacteria from Selected Terrestrial and Aquatic Milieu in the Eastern Cape, South Africa: Toward the Production of Environmentally Relevant Biocatalysts

Authors: John Onolame Unuofin, Uchechukuw U. Nwodo, Anthony I. Okoh

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Laccase is constantly gaining status as important biocatalyst in biotechnology. The illimitable potential of its industrial applications and the corresponding aggressive need for phenomenal volumes of extracellularly secreted laccases have called for its interminable production from sources which are able to meet this demand within a relatively short period of time, preferably bacteria. In response to this call, this study was designed to source for laccase-producing bacteria from different environmental matrices. Three sampling environments were chosen such as wastewater treatment plants, University of Fort Hare vicinity and the Hogback woodland, all within the Eastern Cape, South Africa. Samples such as effluents, sediments, leaf litters, degrading wood and rock scrapings were selectively enriched with some model aromatic compounds and were further screened qualitatively and quantitatively on five phenolic substrates ABTS (2,2’-azino-bis(3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulphonic acid), Guaiacol, 1-Naphthol, Potassium Ferric Cyanide and Syringaldazine). Basis for selection was their ability to elicit a colour change on at least three of the above mentioned agar based assay substrates. The choice isolates were further identified based on 16S rRNA molecular identification techniques. 33 isolates were screened out of the 40 representative distinct colonies during the qualitative plate screens, while quantitative screens selected out 11 bacterial isolates. They were, based on molecular identification, desginated as members of the genera Pseudomonas, Stenotrophomonas and Citrobacter of the gammaproteobacteria and Bordetalla and Achromobacter of the betaproteobacteria respectively. We therefore conclude based on our outcomes that we may have isolated efficient laccase-producing bacteria, which might be of beneficial significance in catalysis and biotechnology.

Keywords: beta proteobacteria, catalysis, gammaproteobacteria, laccase

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929 Big Data’s Mechanistic View of Human Behavior May Displace Traditional Library Missions That Empower Users

Authors: Gabriel Gomez

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The very concept of information seeking behavior, and the means by which librarians teach users to gain information, that is information literacy, are at the heart of how libraries deliver information, but big data will forever change human interaction with information and the way such behavior is both studied and taught. Just as importantly, big data will orient the study of behavior towards commercial ends because of a tendency towards instrumentalist views of human behavior, something one might also call a trend towards behaviorism. This oral presentation seeks to explore how the impact of big data on understandings of human behavior might impact a library information science (LIS) view of human behavior and information literacy, and what this might mean for social justice aims and concomitant community action normally at the center of librarianship. The methodology employed here is a non-empirical examination of current understandings of LIS in regards to social justice alongside an examination of the benefits and dangers foreseen with the growth of big data analysis. The rise of big data within the ever-changing information environment encapsulates a shift to a more mechanistic view of human behavior, one that can easily encompass information seeking behavior and information use. As commercial aims displace the important political and ethical aims that are often central to the missions espoused by libraries and the social sciences, the very altruism and power relations found in LIS are at risk. In this oral presentation, an examination of the social justice impulses of librarians regarding power and information demonstrates how such impulses can be challenged by big data, particularly as librarians understand user behavior and promote information literacy. The creeping behaviorist impulse inherent in the emphasis big data places on specific solutions, that is answers to question that ask how, as opposed to larger questions that hint at an understanding of why people learn or use information threaten library information science ideals. Together with the commercial nature of most big data, this existential threat can harm the social justice nature of librarianship.

Keywords: big data, library information science, behaviorism, librarianship

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928 Decay Analysis of 118Xe* Nucleus Formed in 28Si Induced Reaction

Authors: Manoj K. Sharma, Neha Grover

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Dynamical cluster decay model (DCM) is applied to study the decay mechanism of 118Xe* nucleus in reference to recent data on 28Si + 90Zr → 118Xe* reaction, as an extension of our previous work on the dynamics of 112Xe* nucleus. It is relevant to mention here that DCM is based on collective clusterization approach, where emission probability of different decay paths such as evaporation residue (ER), intermediate mass fragments (IMF) and fission etc. is worked out on parallel scale. Calculations have been done over a wide range of center of mass energies with Ec.m. = 65 - 92 MeV. The evaporation residue (ER) cross-sections of 118Xe* compound nucleus are fitted in reference to available data, using spherical and quadrupole (β2) deformed choice of decaying fragments within the optimum orientations approach. It may be noted that our calculated cross-sections find decent agreement with experimental data and hence provide an opportunity to analyze the exclusive role of deformations in view of fragmentation behavior of 118Xe* nucleus. The possible contribution of IMF fragments is worked out and an extensive effort is being made to analyze the role of excitation energy, angular momentum, diffuseness parameter and level density parameter to have better understanding of the decay patterns governed in the dynamics of 28Si + 90Zr → 118Xe* reaction.

Keywords: cross-sections, deformations, fragmentation, angular momentum

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927 The Role of Temporary Migration as Coping Mechanism of Weather Shock: Evidence from Selected Semi-Arid Tropic Villages in India

Authors: Kalandi Charan Pradhan

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In this study, we investigate does weather variation determine temporary labour migration using 210 sample households from six Semi-Arid Tropic (SAT) villages for the period of 2005-2014 in India. The study has made an attempt to examine how households use temporary labour migration as a coping mechanism to minimise the risk rather than maximize the utility of the households. The study employs panel Logit regression model to predict the probability of household having at least one temporary labour migrant. As per as econometrics result, it is found that along with demographic and socioeconomic factors; weather variation plays an important role to determine the decision of migration at household level. In order to capture the weather variation, the study uses mean crop yield deviation over the study periods. Based on the random effect logit regression result, the study found that there is a concave relationship between weather variation and decision of temporary labour migration. This argument supports the theory of New Economics of Labour Migration (NELM), which highlights the decision of labour migration not only maximise the households’ utility but it helps to minimise the risks.

Keywords: temporary migration, socioeconomic factors, weather variation, crop yield, logit estimation

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926 Thermodynamics during the Deconfining Phase Transition

Authors: Amal Ait El Djoudi

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A thermodynamical model of coexisting hadronic and quark–gluon plasma (QGP) phases is used to study the thermally driven deconfining phase transition occurring between the two phases. A color singlet partition function is calculated for the QGP phase with two massless quarks, as in our previous work, but now the finite extensions of the hadrons are taken into account in the equation of state of the hadronic phase. In the present work, the finite-size effects on the system are examined by probing the behavior of some thermodynamic quantities, called response functions, as order parameter, energy density and their derivatives, on a range of temperature around the transition at different volumes. It turns out that the finiteness of the system size has as effects the rounding of the transition and the smearing of all the singularities occurring in the thermodynamic limit, and the additional finite-size effect introduced by the requirement of exact color-singletness involves a shift of the transition point. This shift as well as the smearing of the transition region and the maxima of both susceptibility and specific heat show a scaling behavior with the volume characterized by scaling exponents. Another striking result is the large similarity noted between the behavior of these response functions and that of the cumulants of the probability density. This similarity is worked to try to extract information concerning the occurring phase transition.

Keywords: equation of state, thermodynamics, deconfining phase transition, quark–gluon plasma (QGP)

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925 The Singapore Innovation Web and Facilitation of Knowledge Processes

Authors: Ola Jon Mork, Irina Emily Hansen

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The European Growth Strategy Program calls for more efficient methods for knowledge creation and innovation. This study contributes with new insights into the Singapore Innovation System; more precisely how knowledge processes are facilitated. The research material is collected by visiting the different innovation locations in Singapore and depth interview with key persons. The different innovation actors web sites and brochures have been studied. Governmental reports and figures have also been studied. The findings show that facilitation of Knowledge Processes in the Singapore Innovation System has a basic structure with three processes, which is 1) Idea capturing – 2)Technology and Business Execution – 3)Idea Realization. Dedicated innovation parks work with the most promising entrepreneurs; more precisely: finding the persons with the motivation to 'change the world'. The innovation park will facilitate these entrepreneurs for 100 days, where they also will be connected to a global network of venture capital. And, the entrepreneurs will have access to mentors from these venture companies. Research institutes parks work with the development of world leading technology. To facilitate knowledge development they connect with industrial companies which are the most promising applicators of their technology. Knowledge facilitation is the main purpose, but this cooperation/testing is also serving as a platform for funding. Probably this is cooperation is also attractive for world leading companies. Dedicated innovation parks work with facilitation of innovators of new applications and perfection of products for the end- user. These parks can be specialized in special areas, like health products and life science products. Another example of this is automotive companies giving research call for these parks to develop and innovate new products and services upon their technology. Common characteristics for the knowledge facilitation in the Singapore Innovation System are a short trial period for promising actors, normally 100 days. It is also a strong focus on training of the entrepreneurs. Presentations and diffusion of knowledge is an important part of the facilitation. Funding will be available for the most successful entrepreneurs and innovators.

Keywords: knowledge processes, facilitation, innovation, Singapore innovation web

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924 Hydrological Revival Possibilities for River Assi: A Tributary of the River Ganga in the Middle Ganga Basin

Authors: Anurag Mishra, Prabhat Kumar Singh, Anurag Ohri, Shishir Gaur

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Streams and rivulets are crucial in maintaining river networks and their hydrology, influencing downstream ecosystems, and connecting different watersheds of urban and rural areas. The river Assi, an urban river, once a lifeline for the locals, has degraded over time. Evidence, such as the presence of paleochannels and patterns of water bodies and settlements, suggests that the river Assi was initially an alluvial stream or rivulet that originated near Rishi Durvasha Ashram near Prayagraj, flowing approximately 120 km before joining the river Ganga at Assi ghat in Varanasi. Presently, a major challenge is that nearly 90% of its original channel has been silted and disappeared, with only the last 8 km retaining some semblance of a river. It is possible that initially, the river Assi branched off from the river Ganga and functioned as a Yazoo stream. In this study, paleochannels of the river Assi were identified using Landsat 5 imageries and SRTM DEM. The study employed the Normalized Difference Vegetation Seasonality Index (NDVSI) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to detect these paleochannels. The average elevation of the sub-basin at the Durvasha Rishi Ashram of river Assi is 96 meters, while it reduces to 80 meters near its confluence with the Ganga in Varanasi, resulting in a 16-meter elevation drop along its course. There are 81 subbasins covering an area of 83,241 square kilometers. It is possible that due to the increased resistance in the flow of river Assi near urban areas of Varanasi, a new channel, Morwa, has originated at an elevation of 87 meters, meeting river Varuna at an elevation of 79 meters. The difference in elevation is 8 meters. Furthermore, the study explored the possibility of restoring the paleochannel of the river Assi and nearby ponds and water bodies to improve the river's base flow and overall hydrological conditions.

Keywords: River Assi, small river restoration, paleochannel identification, remote sensing, GIS

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923 Effects of Non-Motorized Vehicles on a Selected Intersection in Dhaka City for Non Lane Based Heterogeneous Traffic Using VISSIM 5.3

Authors: A. C. Dey, H. M. Ahsan

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Heterogeneous traffic composed of both motorized and non-motorized vehicles that are a common feature of urban Bangladeshi roads. Popular non-motorized vehicles include rickshaws, rickshaw-van, and bicycle. These modes performed an important role in moving people and goods in the absence of a dependable mass transport system. However, rickshaws play a major role in meeting the demand for door-to-door public transport services to the city dwellers. But there is no separate lane for non-motorized vehicles in this city. Non-motorized vehicles generally occupy the outermost or curb-side lanes, however, at intersections non-motorized vehicles get mixed with the motorized vehicles. That’s why the conventional models fail to analyze the situation completely. Microscopic traffic simulation software VISSIM 5.3, itself a lane base software but default behavioral parameters [such as driving behavior, lateral distances, overtaking tendency, CCO=0.4m, CC1=1.5s] are modified for calibrating a model to analyze the effects of non-motorized traffic at an intersection (Mirpur-10) in a non-lane based mixed traffic condition. It is seen from field data that NMV occupies an average 20% of the total number of vehicles almost all the link roads. Due to the large share of non-motorized vehicles, capacity significantly drop. After analyzing simulation raw data, significant variation is noticed. Such as the average vehicular speed is reduced by 25% and the number of vehicles decreased by 30% only for the presence of NMV. Also the variation of lateral occupancy and queue delay time increase by 2.37% and 33.75% respectively. Thus results clearly show the negative effects of non-motorized vehicles on capacity at an intersection. So special management technics or restriction of NMV at major intersections may be an effective solution to improve this existing critical condition.

Keywords: lateral occupancy, non lane based intersection, nmv, queue delay time, VISSIM 5.3

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922 Energy Efficient Building Design in Nigeria: An Assessment of the Effect of the Sun on Energy Consumption in Residential Buildings

Authors: Ekele T. Ochedi, Ahmad H. Taki, Birgit Painter

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The effect of the sun and its path on thermal comfort and energy consumption in residential buildings in tropical climates constitute a serious concern for designers, building owners, and users. Passive design approaches based on the sun and its path have been identified as a means of reducing energy consumption as well as enhancing thermal comfort in buildings worldwide. Hence, a thorough understanding regarding the sun path is key to achieving this. This is necessary due to energy need, poor energy supply, and distribution, energy poverty, and over-dependence on electric generators for power supply in Nigeria. These challenges call for a change in the approach to energy-related issues, especially in terms of buildings. The aim of this study is to explore the influence of building orientation, glazing and the use of shading devices on residential buildings in Nigeria. This is intended to provide data that will guide designers in the design of energy-efficient residential buildings. The paper used EnergyPlus to analyze a typical semi-detached residential building in Lokoja, Nigeria using hourly weather data for a period of 10 years. Building performance was studied as well as possible improvement regarding different orientations, glazing types and shading devices. The simulation results show some reductions in energy consumption in response to changes in building orientation, types of glazing and the use of shading devices. The results indicate 29.45% reduction in solar gains and 1.90% in annual operative temperature using natural ventilation only. This shows a huge potential to reduce energy consumption and improve people’s well-being through the use of proper building orientation, glazing and appropriate shading devices on building envelope. The study concludes that for a significant reduction in total energy consumption by residential buildings, the design should focus on multiple design options rather than concentrating on one or few building elements. Moreover, the investigation confirms that energy performance modeling can be used by building designers to take advantage of the sun and to evaluate various design options.

Keywords: energy consumption, energy-efficient buildings, glazing, thermal comfort, shading devices, solar gains

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921 Modelling, Assessment, and Optimisation of Rules for Selected Umgeni Water Distribution Systems

Authors: Khanyisile Mnguni, Muthukrishnavellaisamy Kumarasamy, Jeff C. Smithers

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Umgeni Water is a water board that supplies most parts of KwaZulu Natal with bulk portable water. Currently, Umgeni Water is running its distribution system based on required reservoir levels and demands and does not consider the energy cost at different times of the day, number of pump switches, and background leakages. Including these constraints can reduce operational cost, energy usage, leakages, and increase performance. Optimising pump schedules can reduce energy usage and costs while adhering to hydraulic and operational constraints. Umgeni Water has installed an online hydraulic software, WaterNet Advisor, that allows running different operational scenarios prior to implementation in order to optimise the distribution system. This study will investigate operation scenarios using optimisation techniques and WaterNet Advisor for a local water distribution system. Based on studies reported in the literature, introducing pump scheduling optimisation can reduce energy usage by approximately 30% without any change in infrastructure. Including tariff structures in an optimisation problem can reduce pumping costs by 15%, while including leakages decreases cost by 10%, and pressure drop in the system can be up to 12 m. Genetical optimisation algorithms are widely used due to their ability to solve nonlinear, non-convex, and mixed-integer problems. Other methods such as branch and bound linear programming have also been successfully used. A suitable optimisation method will be chosen based on its efficiency. The objective of the study is to reduce energy usage, operational cost, and leakages, and the feasibility of optimal solution will be checked using the Waternet Advisor. This study will provide an overview of the optimisation of hydraulic networks and progress made to date in multi-objective optimisation for a selected sub-system operated by Umgeni Water.

Keywords: energy usage, pump scheduling, WaterNet Advisor, leakages

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920 AFM Probe Sensor Designed for Cellular Membrane Components

Authors: Sarmiza Stanca, Wolfgang Fritzsche, Christoph Krafft, Jürgen Popp

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Independent of the cell type a thin layer of a few nanometers thickness surrounds the cell interior as the cellular membrane. The transport of ions and molecules through the membrane is achieved in a very precise way by pores. Understanding the process of opening and closing the pores due to an electrochemical gradient across the membrane requires knowledge of the pore constitutive proteins. Recent reports prove the access to the molecular level of the cellular membrane by atomic force microscopy (AFM). This technique also permits an electrochemical study in the immediate vicinity of the tip. Specific molecules can be electrochemically localized in the natural cellular membrane. Our work aims to recognize the protein domains of the pores using an AFM probe as a miniaturized amperometric sensor, and to follow the protein behavior while changing the applied potential. The intensity of the current produced between the surface and the AFM probe is amplified and detected simultaneously with the surface imaging. The AFM probe plays the role of the working electrode and the substrate, a conductive glass on which the cells are grown, represent the counter electrode. For a better control of the electric potential on the probe, a third electrode Ag/AgCl wire is mounted in the circuit as a reference electrode. The working potential is applied between the electrodes with a programmable source and the current intensity in the circuit is recorded with a multimeter. The applied potential considers the overpotential at the electrode surface and the potential drop due to the current flow through the system. The reported method permits a high resolved electrochemical study of the protein domains on the living cell membrane. The amperometric map identifies areas of different current intensities on the pore depending on the applied potential. The reproducibility of this method is limited by the tip shape, the uncontrollable capacitance, which occurs at the apex and a potential local charge separation.

Keywords: AFM, sensor, membrane, pores, proteins

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919 Towards an Eastern Philosophy of Religion: on the Contradictory Identity of Philosophy and Religion

Authors: Carlo Cogliati

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The study of the relationship of philosophical reason with the religious domain has been very much a concern for many of the Western philosophical and theological traditions. In this essay, I will suggest a proposal for an Eastern philosophy of religion based on Nishida’s contradictory identity of the two: philosophy soku hi (is, and yes is not) religion. This will pose a challenge to the traditional Western contents and methods of the discipline. This paper aims to serve three purposes. First, I will critically assess Charlesworth’s typology of the relation between philosophy and religion in the West: philosophy as/for/against/about/after religion. I will also engage Harrison’s call for a global philosophy of religion(s) and argue that, although it expands the scope and the range of the questions to address, it is still Western in its method. Second, I will present Nishida’s logic of absolutely contradictory self-identity as the instrument to transcend the dichotomous pair of identity and contradiction: ‘A is A’ and ‘A is not A’. I will then explain how this ‘concrete’ logic of the East, as opposed to the ‘formal’ logic of the West, exhibits at best the bilateral dynamic relation between philosophy and religion. Even as Nishida argues for the non-separability of the two, he is also aware and committed to their mutual non-reducibility. Finally, I will outline the resulting new relation between God and creatures. Nishida in his philosophy soku hi religion replaces the traditional Western dualistic concept of God with the Eastern non-dualistic understanding of God as “neither transcendent nor immanent, and at the same time both transcendent and immanent.” God is therefore a self-identity of contradiction, nowhere and yet everywhere present in the world of creatures. God as absolute being is also absolute nothingness: the world of creatures is the expression of God’s absolute self-negation. The overreaching goal of this essay is to offer an alternative to traditional Western approaches to philosophy of religion based on Nishida’s logic of absolutely contradictory self-identity, as an example of philosophical and religious counter(influence). The resulting relationship between philosophy and religion calls for a revision of traditional concepts and methods. The outcome is not to reformulate the Eastern predilection to not sharply distinguish philosophical thought from religious enlightenment rather to bring together philosophy and religion in the place of identity and difference.

Keywords: basho, Nishida Kitaro, shukyotetsugaku, soku hi, zettai mujunteki jikodoitsu no ronri

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918 Numerical Method for Productivity Prediction of Water-Producing Gas Well with Complex 3D Fractures: Case Study of Xujiahe Gas Well in Sichuan Basin

Authors: Hong Li, Haiyang Yu, Shiqing Cheng, Nai Cao, Zhiliang Shi

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Unconventional resources have gradually become the main direction for oil and gas exploration and development. However, the productivity of gas wells, the level of water production, and the seepage law in tight fractured gas reservoirs are very different. These are the reasons why production prediction is so difficult. Firstly, a three-dimensional multi-scale fracture and multiphase mathematical model based on an embedded discrete fracture model (EDFM) is established. And the material balance method is used to calculate the water body multiple according to the production performance characteristics of water-producing gas well. This will help construct a 'virtual water body'. Based on these, this paper presents a numerical simulation process that can adapt to different production modes of gas wells. The research results show that fractures have a double-sided effect. The positive side is that it can increase the initial production capacity, but the negative side is that it can connect to the water body, which will lead to the gas production drop and the water production rise both rapidly, showing a 'scissor-like' characteristic. It is worth noting that fractures with different angles have different abilities to connect with the water body. The higher the angle of gas well development, the earlier the water maybe break through. When the reservoir is a single layer, there may be a stable production period without water before the fractures connect with the water body. Once connected, a 'scissors shape' will appear. If the reservoir has multiple layers, the gas and water will produce at the same time. The above gas-water relationship can be matched with the gas well production date of the Xujiahe gas reservoir in the Sichuan Basin. This method is used to predict the productivity of a well with hydraulic fractures in this gas reservoir, and the prediction results are in agreement with on-site production data by more than 90%. It shows that this research idea has great potential in the productivity prediction of water-producing gas wells. Early prediction results are of great significance to guide the design of development plans.

Keywords: EDFM, multiphase, multilayer, water body

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917 Prone Positioning and Clinical Outcomes of Mechanically Ventilated Patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome

Authors: Maha Salah Abdullah Ismail, Mahmoud M. Alsagheir, Mohammed Salah Abd Allah

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Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is characterized by permeability pulmonary edema and refractory hypoxemia. Lung-protective ventilation is still the key of better outcome in ARDS. Prone position reduces the trans-pulmonary pressure gradient, recruiting collapsed regions of the lung without increasing airway pressure or hyperinflation. Prone ventilation showed improved oxygenation and improved outcomes in severe hypoxemic patients with ARDS. This study evaluates the effect of prone positioning on mechanically ventilated patients with ARDS. A quasi-experimental design was carried out at Critical Care Units, on 60 patients. Two tools were utilized to collect data; Socio demographic, medical and clinical outcomes data sheet. Results of the present study indicated that prone position improves oxygenation in patients with severe respiratory distress syndrome. The study recommended that use prone position in patients with severe ARDS, as early as possible and for long sessions. Also, replication of this study on larger probability sample at the different geographical location is highly recommended.

Keywords: acute respiratory distress syndrome, critical care, mechanical ventilation, prone position

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916 A Nonlinear Stochastic Differential Equation Model for Financial Bubbles and Crashes with Finite-Time Singularities

Authors: Haowen Xi

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We propose and solve exactly a class of non-linear generalization of the Black-Scholes process of stochastic differential equations describing price bubble and crashes dynamics. As a result of nonlinear positive feedback, the faster-than-exponential price positive growth (bubble forming) and negative price growth (crash forming) are found to be the power-law finite-time singularity in which bubbles and crashes price formation ending at finite critical time tc. While most literature on the market bubble and crash process focuses on the nonlinear positive feedback mechanism aspect, very few studies concern the noise level on the same process. The present work adds to the market bubble and crashes literature by studying the external sources noise influence on the critical time tc of the bubble forming and crashes forming. Two main results will be discussed: (1) the analytical expression of expected value of the critical time is found and unexpected critical slowing down due to the coupling external noise is predicted; (2) numerical simulations of the nonlinear stochastic equation is presented, and the probability distribution of Prob(tc) is found to be the inverse gamma function.

Keywords: bubble, crash, finite-time-singular, numerical simulation, price dynamics, stochastic differential equations

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915 Radial Basis Surrogate Model Integrated to Evolutionary Algorithm for Solving Computation Intensive Black-Box Problems

Authors: Abdulbaset Saad, Adel Younis, Zuomin Dong

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For design optimization with high-dimensional expensive problems, an effective and efficient optimization methodology is desired. This work proposes a series of modification to the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm for solving computation Intensive Black-Box Problems. The proposed methodology is called Radial Basis Meta-Model Algorithm Assisted Differential Evolutionary (RBF-DE), which is a global optimization algorithm based on the meta-modeling techniques. A meta-modeling assisted DE is proposed to solve computationally expensive optimization problems. The Radial Basis Function (RBF) model is used as a surrogate model to approximate the expensive objective function, while DE employs a mechanism to dynamically select the best performing combination of parameters such as differential rate, cross over probability, and population size. The proposed algorithm is tested on benchmark functions and real life practical applications and problems. The test results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is promising and performs well compared to other optimization algorithms. The proposed algorithm is capable of converging to acceptable and good solutions in terms of accuracy, number of evaluations, and time needed to converge.

Keywords: differential evolution, engineering design, expensive computations, meta-modeling, radial basis function, optimization

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914 Rural Sanitation in India: Special Context in the State of Odisa

Authors: Monalisha Ghosh, Asit Mohanty

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The lack of sanitation increases living costs, decreases spend on education and nutrition, lowers income earning potential, and threatens safety and welfare. This is especially true for rural India. Only 32% of rural households have their own toilets and that less than half of Indian households have a toilet at home. Of the estimated billion people in the world who defecate in the open, more than half reside in rural India. It is empirically established that poor sanitation leads to high infant mortality rate and low income generation in rural India. In India, 1,600 children die every day before reaching their fifth birthday and 24% of girls drop out of school as the lack of basic sanitation. Above all, lack of sanitation is not a symptom of poverty but a major contributing factor. According to census 2011, 67.3% of the rural households in the country still did not have access to sanitation facilities. India’s sanitation deficit leads to losses worth roughly 6% of its gross domestic product (GDP) according to World Bank estimates by raising the disease burden in the country. The dropout rate for girl child is thirty percent in schools in rural areas because of lack of sanitation facilities for girl students. The productivity loss per skilled labors during a year is calculated at Rs.44, 160 in Odisha. The performance of the state of Odisha has not been satisfactory in improving sanitation facilities. The biggest challenge is triggering behavior change in vast section of rural population regarding need to use toilets. Another major challenge is funding and implementation for improvement of sanitation facility. In an environment of constrained economic resources, Public Private Partnership in form of performance based management or maintenance contract will be all the more relevant to improve the sanitation status in rural sector.

Keywords: rural sanitation, infant mortality rate, income, granger causality, pooled OLS method test public private partnership

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913 Regulating Transnational Corporations and Protecting Human Rights: Analyzing the Efficiency of International Legal Framework

Authors: Stellina Jolly

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July 18th to August 19th 2013 has gone down in the history of India for undertaking the country’s first environment referendum. The Supreme Court had ruled that the Vedanta Group's bauxite mining project in the Niyamgiri Hills of Orissa will have to get clearance from the gram sabha, which will consider the cultural and religious rights of the tribals and forest dwellers living in Rayagada and Kalahandi districts. In the Niyamgiri hills, people of small tribal hamlets were asked to voice their opinion on bauxite mining in their habitat. The ministry has reiterated its stand that mining cannot be allowed on the Niyamgiri hills because it will affect the rights of the Dongria Kondhs. The tribal person who occupies the Niyamgiri Hills in Eastern India accomplished their first success in 2010 in their struggle to protect and preserve their existence, culture and land against Vedanta a London-based mining giant. In August, 2010 Government of India revoked permission for Vedanta Resources to mine bauxite from hills in Orissa State where the Dongria Kondh live as forest dwellers. This came after various protests and reports including amnesty report wherein it highlighted that an alumina refinery in eastern India operated by a subsidiary of mining company. Vedanta was accused of causing air and water pollution that threatens the health of local people and their access to water. The abuse of human rights by corporate is not a new issue it has occurred in Africa, Asia and other parts of the world. Paper focuses on the instances and extent of human right especially in terms of environment violations by corporations. Further Paper details on corporations and sustainable development. Paper finally comes up with certain recommendation including call for a declaration by United Nations on Corporate environment Human Rights Liability.

Keywords: environment, corporate, human rights, sustainable development

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912 Investigating Mathematical Knowledge of Teaching for Secondary Preservice Teachers in Papua New Guinea Based on Probabilities

Authors: Murray Olowa

Abstract:

This article examines the studies investigating the Mathematical Knowledge for Teaching (MKT) of secondary preservice teachers in Papua New Guinea based on probabilities. This research was conducted due to the continuous issues faced in the country in both primary and secondary education, like changes in curriculum, emphasis on mathematics and science education, and a decline in mathematics performance. Moreover, the mathematics curriculum doesn’t capture Pedagogical Content Knowledge (PCK) or Subject Matter Knowledge (SMK). The two main domains that have been identified are SMK and PCK, which have been further sub-divided into Common Content Knowledge (CCK), Specialised Content Knowledge (SCK) and Horizon Content Knowledge (HCK), and Knowledge of Content and Students (KCS), Knowledge of Content and Teaching (KCT) and Knowledge of Content and Curriculum (KCC), respectively. The data collected from 15-_year-_ ones and 15-_year-_fours conducted at St Peter Chanel Secondary Teachers College revealed that there is no significant difference in subject matter knowledge between year one and year four since the P-value of 0.22>0.05. However, it was revealed that year fours have higher pedagogical content knowledge than year one since P-value was 0.007<0.05. Finally, the research has proven that year fours have higher MKT than year one. This difference occurred due to final year preservice teachers’ hard work and engagement in mathematics curriculum and teaching practice.

Keywords: mathematical knowledge for teaching, subject matter knowledge, pedagogical content knowledge, Papua New Guinea, preservice teachers, probability

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911 Dwelling in the Built Environment: The Resilience by Design in Modular Thinking toward an Adaptive Alternatives

Authors: Tzen-Ying Ling

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Recently, the resilience of dwellings in urban areas has been deliberated, as to accommodate the growing demand for changing the demography and rapid urbanization. The need to incorporate sustainability and cleaner production thinking have intensified to mitigate climate risks and satisfy the demand for housing. The modular thinking satisfies both the pressing call for fast-tracked housing stocks; while meeting the goal of more sustainable production. In the other side, the importance of the dwelling as a podium for well-being and social connectedness are sought to explore the key human/environment design thinking for the modular system in dwelling. We argue the best practice incorporates the concept of systemic components thinking. The fieldwork reported in this paper illustrates the process of the case study in a modular dwelling unit prototype development; focusing on the systemic frame system design process and adjustment recommendation hereafter. Using a case study method, the study identified that: (1) inclusive human dimensional factoring through systemic design thinking results in affordable implementations possibilities. (2) The environmental dimension encourages the place-based solution suited for the locality and the increasing demand for dwelling in the urban system. (3) Prototype design consideration avails module system component as dwelling construction alternative. (4) Building code often acts as an inhibitor for such dwelling units by the restriction in lot sizes and units placement. The demand for fast-track dwelling construction and cleaner production decisively outweighs the code inhibition; we further underscored the sustainability implication of the alternative prototype as the core of this study. The research suggests that modular thinking results in a resilient solution suited for the locality and the increasing demand for dwelling in the urban system.

Keywords: system prototype, urban resilience, human/environment dimension, modular thinking, dwelling alternative

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910 Air Pollution and Respiratory-Related Restricted Activity Days in Tunisia

Authors: Mokhtar Kouki Inès Rekik

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This paper focuses on the assessment of the air pollution and morbidity relationship in Tunisia. Air pollution is measured by ozone air concentration and the morbidity is measured by the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days during the 2-week period prior to the interview. Socioeconomic data are also collected in order to adjust for any confounding covariates. Our sample is composed by 407 Tunisian respondents; 44.7% are women, the average age is 35.2, near 69% are living in a house built after the 1980, and 27.8% have reported at least one day of respiratory-related restricted activity. The model consists on the regression of the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days on the air quality measure and the socioeconomic covariates. In order to correct for zero-inflation and heterogeneity, we estimate several models (Poisson, Negative binomial, Zero inflated Poisson, Poisson hurdle, Negative binomial hurdle and finite mixture Poisson models). Bootstrapping and post-stratification techniques are used in order to correct for any sample bias. According to the Akaike information criteria, the hurdle negative binomial model has the greatest goodness of fit. The main result indicates that, after adjusting for socioeconomic data, the ozone concentration increases the probability of positive number of restricted activity days.

Keywords: bootstrapping, hurdle negbin model, overdispersion, ozone concentration, respiratory-related restricted activity days

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909 Simulation of Nano Drilling Fluid in an Extended Reach Well

Authors: Lina Jassim, Robiah Yunus, , Amran Salleh

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Since nano particles have been assessed as thermo stabilizer, rheology enhancer, and ecology safer, nano drilling fluid can be utilized to overcome the complexity of hole cleaning in highly deviated interval of an extended reach wells. The eccentric annular flow is a flow with special considerations; it forms a vital part of drilling fluid flow analysis in an extended reach wells. In this work eccentric, dual phase flow (different types of rock cuttings with different size were blended with nano fluid) through horizontal well (an extended reach well) are simulated with the help of CFD, Fluent package. In horizontal wells flow occurs in an adverse pressure gradient condition, that makes the particle inside it susceptible to reversed flow. Thus the flow has to be analyzed in a three dimensional manner. Moreover the non-Newtonian behavior of the nano fluid makes the problem really challenging in numerical and physical aspects. The primary objective of the work is to establish a relationship between different flow characteristics with the speed of inner wall rotation. The nano fluid flow characteristics include swirl of flow and its effect on wellbore cleaning ability , wall shear stress and its effect on fluid viscosity to suspend and carry the rock cuttings, axial velocity and its effect on transportation of rock cuttings to the wellbore surface, finally pressure drop and its effect on managed of drilling pressure. The importance of eccentricity of the inner cylinder has to be analyzed as a part of it. Practical horizontal well flows contain a good amount of particles (rock cuttings) with moderate axial velocity, which verified nano drilling fluid ability of carrying and transferring cuttings particles in the highly deviated eccentric annular flow is also of utmost importance.

Keywords: Non-Newtonian, dual phase, eccentric annular, CFD

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908 Size Optimization of Microfluidic Polymerase Chain Reaction Devices Using COMSOL

Authors: Foteini Zagklavara, Peter Jimack, Nikil Kapur, Ozz Querin, Harvey Thompson

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The invention and development of the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) technology have revolutionised molecular biology and molecular diagnostics. There is an urgent need to optimise their performance of those devices while reducing the total construction and operation costs. The present study proposes a CFD-enabled optimisation methodology for continuous flow (CF) PCR devices with serpentine-channel structure, which enables the trade-offs between competing objectives of DNA amplification efficiency and pressure drop to be explored. This is achieved by using a surrogate-enabled optimisation approach accounting for the geometrical features of a CF μPCR device by performing a series of simulations at a relatively small number of Design of Experiments (DoE) points, with the use of COMSOL Multiphysics 5.4. The values of the objectives are extracted from the CFD solutions, and response surfaces created using the polyharmonic splines and neural networks. After creating the respective response surfaces, genetic algorithm, and a multi-level coordinate search optimisation function are used to locate the optimum design parameters. Both optimisation methods produced similar results for both the neural network and the polyharmonic spline response surfaces. The results indicate that there is the possibility of improving the DNA efficiency by ∼2% in one PCR cycle when doubling the width of the microchannel to 400 μm while maintaining the height at the value of the original design (50μm). Moreover, the increase in the width of the serpentine microchannel is combined with a decrease in its total length in order to obtain the same residence times in all the simulations, resulting in a smaller total substrate volume (32.94% decrease). A multi-objective optimisation is also performed with the use of a Pareto Front plot. Such knowledge will enable designers to maximise the amount of DNA amplified or to minimise the time taken throughout thermal cycling in such devices.

Keywords: PCR, optimisation, microfluidics, COMSOL

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907 Reliability Assessment for Tie Line Capacity Assistance of Power Systems Based on Multi-Agent System

Authors: Nadheer A. Shalash, Abu Zaharin Bin Ahmad

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Technological developments in industrial innovations have currently been related to interconnected system assistance and distribution networks. This important in order to enable an electrical load to continue receive power in the event of disconnection of load from the main power grid. This paper represents a method for reliability assessment of interconnected power systems based. The multi-agent system consists of four agents. The first agent was the generator agent to using as connected the generator to the grid depending on the state of the reserve margin and the load demand. The second was a load agent is that located at the load. Meanwhile, the third is so-called "the reverse margin agent" that to limit the reserve margin between 0-25% depend on the load and the unit size generator. In the end, calculation reliability Agent can be calculate expected energy not supplied (EENS), loss of load expectation (LOLE) and the effecting of tie line capacity to determine the risk levels Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) can use to evaluated the reliability indices by using the developed JADE package. The results estimated of the reliability interconnection power systems presented in this paper. The overall reliability of power system can be improved. Thus, the market becomes more concentrated against demand increasing and the generation units were operating in relation to reliability indices.

Keywords: reliability indices, load expectation, reserve margin, daily load, probability, multi-agent system

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906 Modeling The Deterioration Of Road Bridges At The Provincial Level In Laos

Authors: Hatthaphone Silimanotham, Michael Henry

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The effective maintenance of road bridge infrastructure is becoming a widely researched topic in the civil engineering field. Deterioration is one of the main issues in bridge performance, and it is necessary to understand how bridges deteriorate to optimally plan budget allocation for bridge maintenance. In Laos, many bridges are in a deteriorated state, which may affect the performance of the bridge. Due to bridge deterioration, the Ministry of Public Works and Transport is interested in the deterioration model to allocate the budget efficiently and support the bridge maintenance planning. A deterioration model can be used to predict the bridge condition in the future based on the observed behavior in the past. This paper analyzes the available inspection data of road bridges on the road classifications network to build deterioration prediction models for the main bridge type found at the provincial level (concrete slab, concrete girder, and steel truss) using probabilistic deterioration modeling by linear regression method. The analysis targets there has three bridge types in the 18 provinces of Laos and estimates the bridge deterioration rating for evaluating the bridge's remaining life. This research thus considers the relationship between the service period and the bridge condition to represent the probability of bridge condition in the future. The results of the study can be used for a variety of bridge management tasks, including maintenance planning, budgeting, and evaluating bridge assets.

Keywords: deterioration model, bridge condition, bridge management, probabilistic modeling

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905 Flood Hazard and Risk Mapping to Assess Ice-Jam Flood Mitigation Measures

Authors: Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt, Apurba Das, Joel Trudell, Keanne Russell

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In this presentation, we explore options for mitigating ice-jam flooding along the Athabasca River in western Canada. Not only flood hazard, expressed in this case as the probability of flood depths and extents being exceeded, but also flood risk, in which annual expected damages are calculated. Flood risk is calculated, which allows a cost-benefit analysis to be made so that decisions on the best mitigation options are not based solely on flood hazard but also on the costs related to flood damages and the benefits of mitigation. The river ice model is used to simulate extreme ice-jam flood events with which scenarios are run to determine flood exposure and damages in flood-prone areas along the river. We will concentrate on three mitigation options – the placement of a dike, artificial breakage of the ice cover along the river, the installation of an ice-control structure, and the construction of a reservoir. However, any mitigation option is not totally failsafe. For example, dikes can still be overtopped and breached, and ice jams may still occur in areas of the river where ice covers have been artificially broken up. Hence, for all options, it is recommended that zoning of building developments away from greater flood hazard areas be upheld. Flood mitigation can have a negative effect of giving inhabitants a false sense of security that flooding may not happen again, leading to zoning policies being relaxed. (Text adapted from Lindenschmidt [2022] "Ice Destabilization Study - Phase 2", submitted to the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, Alberta, Canada)

Keywords: ice jam, flood hazard, flood risk river ice modelling, flood risk

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904 International Peace and Security: a Study in the Light of the Provisions of the Charter of the United Nations

Authors: Djehich Mohamed Yousri

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As a result of the destruction and devastation left by the two world wars, the international community worked to establish a global organization based on a contractual basis, in which the Security Council was entrusted with the task of working to maintain international peace and security, and to achieve this, the United Nations Charter assigned the latter a wide authority to adapt everything It would threaten international peace and security, although the examiner of the Charter of the United Nations does not find the slightest definition of the concept of international peace and security, although these two principles are among the basic principles that the Charter stipulated the necessity of achieving, and perhaps this was also what was in the opposite case for them. And by that, we mean cases of a threat to peace, a breach of it, or an act of aggression. These terms were not dealt with in the Charter in explanation and detail, leaving ample room for the Security Council to assess each of these cases separately, and perhaps this is due to the fact that the framers of the Charter intended to set a flexible standard. It does not restrict the authority of the Security Council to carry out the adjustment process on the one hand and, on the other hand, to allow and enable the Security Council to keep pace with new developments and threats to which international peace and security are exposed. There is no doubt that the concept of international peace and security has undergone significant changes during the 70-year period that followed the establishment of the international organization. After the threat to peace and security focused - in the first stage - on cases of war or the threat of war, what distinguishes the post- The new world order is the emergence of other challenges and threats that find their source in economic, social, humanitarian, and environmental instability. Perhaps this is what the member states of the Security Council indicated during the preparation of the Peace Agenda. The expansion of the concept of peace and security is what paved the way for some permanent states to use the Security Council to legitimize and implement their decisions and take the council as a tool to implement their foreign policy and punish states instead of maintaining international peace and security, which prompted some states and jurisprudence to call for the establishment of oversight of the decisions of the Council Security on the one hand, and amending the UN Charter to make it more expressive of the aspirations of the international community, referring to the obstacles that prevent this amendment.

Keywords: peace, security, united nations charter, security council, united nations organization

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903 Study on Acoustic Source Detection Performance Improvement of Microphone Array Installed on Drones Using Blind Source Separation

Authors: Youngsun Moon, Yeong-Ju Go, Jong-Soo Choi

Abstract:

Most drones that currently have surveillance/reconnaissance missions are basically equipped with optical equipment, but we also need to use a microphone array to estimate the location of the acoustic source. This can provide additional information in the absence of optical equipment. The purpose of this study is to estimate Direction of Arrival (DOA) based on Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA) estimation of the acoustic source in the drone. The problem is that it is impossible to measure the clear target acoustic source because of the drone noise. To overcome this problem is to separate the drone noise and the target acoustic source using Blind Source Separation(BSS) based on Independent Component Analysis(ICA). ICA can be performed assuming that the drone noise and target acoustic source are independent and each signal has non-gaussianity. For maximized non-gaussianity each signal, we use Negentropy and Kurtosis based on probability theory. As a result, we can improve TDOA estimation and DOA estimation of the target source in the noisy environment. We simulated the performance of the DOA algorithm applying BSS algorithm, and demonstrated the simulation through experiment at the anechoic wind tunnel.

Keywords: aeroacoustics, acoustic source detection, time difference of arrival, direction of arrival, blind source separation, independent component analysis, drone

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902 Polycode Texts in Communication of Antisocial Groups: Functional and Pragmatic Aspects

Authors: Ivan Potapov

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Background: The aim of this paper is to investigate poly code texts in the communication of youth antisocial groups. Nowadays, the notion of a text has numerous interpretations. Besides all the approaches to defining a text, we must take into account semiotic and cultural-semiotic ones. Rapidly developing IT, world globalization, and new ways of coding of information increase the role of the cultural-semiotic approach. However, the development of computer technologies leads also to changes in the text itself. Polycode texts play a more and more important role in the everyday communication of the younger generation. Therefore, the research of functional and pragmatic aspects of both verbal and non-verbal content is actually quite important. Methods and Material: For this survey, we applied the combination of four methods of text investigation: not only intention and content analysis but also semantic and syntactic analysis. Using these methods provided us with information on general text properties, the content of transmitted messages, and each communicants’ intentions. Besides, during our research, we figured out the social background; therefore, we could distinguish intertextual connections between certain types of polycode texts. As the sources of the research material, we used 20 public channels in the popular messenger Telegram and data extracted from smartphones, which belonged to arrested members of antisocial groups. Findings: This investigation let us assert that polycode texts can be characterized as highly intertextual language unit. Moreover, we could outline the classification of these texts based on communicants’ intentions. The most common types of antisocial polycode texts are a call to illegal actions and agitation. What is more, each type has its own semantic core: it depends on the sphere of communication. However, syntactic structure is universal for most of the polycode texts. Conclusion: Polycode texts play important role in online communication. The results of this investigation demonstrate that in some social groups using these texts has a destructive influence on the younger generation and obviously needs further researches.

Keywords: text, polycode text, internet linguistics, text analysis, context, semiotics, sociolinguistics

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