Search results for: risk factor model

Authors: Amer Alzaidi

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Islamic banking is an alternative solution to those people who are worried about Riba (interest) in all forms of transaction while using banking services and products. Today, banks around the world have Islamic banking services and products the in one form or another. The use of Islamic banking is not only restricted to Muslims world but have reached to non-Muslim countries like UK, USA, Australia and Canada as well. Compared to conventional banking, the adoption rate of Islamic banking is low because of unawareness of customers, financial cost, and performance issues. The interest in Islamic banking by financial institutions as well as low adoption rate motivated us to look this matter into detail in order to identify Critical Success Factors, which are positively motivating customers to use Islamic banking services/ products and Critical Risk Factors, which have significantly negative effect on the adoption of Islamic banking. The CSFs and CRFs will be initially identified from the literature using methodology called Systematic Literature Review, followed by the empirical analysis of these factors using survey research method. Later, we will develop Islamic Banking Adoption Model (IBAM) to help banks to assess their Islamic banking strategic positioning and to improve their operational efficiency. The first potential contribution of this research study will be the development of IBAM protocol that will provide us guidelines for conducting our actual SLR. The second major contribution of this research will be the development of Islamic Banking Adoption Model (IBAM), and the third contribution of this research study will be the evaluation of the developed IBMA.

Keywords: Islamic banking, adoption model, protocol, technology

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Authors: Hui-Yun Cao, Hai-Qing Zhou

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The high precision measurements and experiments play more and more important roles in particle physics and atomic physics. To analyse the precise experimental data sets, the corresponding precise and reliable theoretical calculations are necessary. Until now, the form factors of elemental constituents such as pion and proton are still attractive issues in current Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). In this work, the two-photon-exchange (TPE) effects in ep→enπ⁺ at small -t are discussed within a hadronic model. Under the pion dominance approximation and the limit mₑ→0, the TPE contribution to the amplitude can be described by a scalar function. We calculate TPE contributions to the amplitude, and the unpolarized differential cross section with the only elastic intermediate state is considered. The results show that the TPE corrections to the unpolarized differential cross section are about from -4% to -20% at Q²=1-1.6 GeV². After considering the TPE corrections to the experimental data sets of unpolarized differential cross section, we analyze the TPE corrections to the separated cross sections σ(L,T,LT,TT). We find that the TPE corrections (at Q²=1-1.6 GeV²) to σL are about from -10% to -30%, to σT are about 20%, and to σ(LT,TT) are much larger. By these analyses, we conclude that the TPE contributions in ep→enπ⁺ at small -t are important to extract the separated cross sections σ(L,T,LT,TT) and the electromagnetic form factor of π⁺ in the experimental analysis.

Keywords: differential cross section, form factor, hadronic, two-photon

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Authors: Guanghua Lu, Zhenhua Yan

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To investigate the estrogenic contamination and potential risk of Taihu Lake, eight active biomonitoring points in the northern section of Taihu Lake were set up and located in Wangyuhe River outlet (P1), Gonghu Bay (P2 and P3), Meiliang Bay (P4 and P5), Zhushan Bay (P6 and P7) and Lake Centre (P8). A suite of biomarkers in caged fish after in situ exposure for 28 days, coupled with six selected exogenous estrogens in water, were determined in May and December 2011. Six target estrogens, namely estrone (E1), 17b-estradiol (E2), ethinylestradiol (EE2), estriol (E3), diethylstilbestrol (DES) and bisphenol A (BPA), were quantified using UPLC/MS/MS. The concentrations of E1, E2, E3, EE2, DES and BPA ranged from ND to 3.61 ng/L, ND to 17.3 ng/L, ND to 1.65 ng/L, ND to 10.2 ng/L, ND to 34.6 ng/L, and 3.95 to 207 ng/L, respectively. BPA was detected at all sampling points at all test periods, E2 was detected at 95% of samples, E1 and EE2 was detected at 75% of samples, and E3 was detected only in December 2011 with quite low concentrations. Each individual estrogen concentration measured at each sampling point was multiplied by its relative potency to gain the estradiol equivalent (EEQ). The total EEQ values in all the monitoring points ranged from 5.69 to 17.8 ng/L in May 2011, and from 4.46 to 21.1 ng/L in December 2011. E2 and EE2 were thought to be the major causal agents responsible for the estrogenic activities. Serum vitellogenin and E2 levels, gonadal DNA damage, and gonadosomatic index were measured in the in situ exposed fish. An enhanced integrated biomarker response (EIBR) was calculated and used to evaluate potential feminization risk of fish in the polluted area of Taihu Lake. EIBR index showed good agreement with the observed total EEQ levels in water. Our results indicated that Gong bay and the lake center had a low estrogenic risk, whereas Wangyuhe River, Meiliang Bay, and Zhushan Bay might present a higher risk to fish.

Keywords: active biomonitoring, estrogen, feminization risk, Taihu Lake

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Authors: Shima Soleimani, Steven Eckels

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One area of special importance for surface-level study of heat exchangers is tubes with internal micro-fins (< 0.5 mm tall). Micro-finned surfaces are a kind of extended solid surface in which energy is exchanged with water that acts as the source or sink of energy. Significant performance gains are possible for either shell, tube, or double pipe heat exchangers if the best surfaces are identified. The parametric studies of micro-finned tubes that have appeared in the literature left some key parameters unexplored. Specifically, they ignored three-dimensional (3D) micro-fin configurations, conduction heat transfer in the fins, and conduction in the solid surface below the micro-fins. Thus, this study aimed at implementing a parametric study of 3D micro-finned tubes that considered micro-fin height and discontinuity features. A 3D conductive and convective heat-transfer simulation through coupled solid and periodic fluid domains is applied in a commercial package, ANSYS Fluent 19.1. The simulation is steady-state with turbulent water flow cooling inner wall of a tube with micro-fins. The simulation utilizes a constant and uniform temperature on the tube outer wall. Performance is mapped for 18 different simulation cases, including a smooth tube using a realizable k-ε turbulence model at a Reynolds number of 48,928. Results compared the performance of 3D tubes with results for the similar two-dimensional (2D) one. Results showed that the micro-fin height has greater impact on performance factor than discontinuity features in 3D micro-fin tubes. A transformed 3D micro-fin tube can enhance heat transfer and pressure drop up to 21% and 56% compared to a 2D one, respectfully.

Keywords: three-dimensional micro-finned tube, heat transfer, friction factor, heat exchanger

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Authors: Lalrokima Chenkual

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Legal provision and various guidelines issued by the National Disaster Management Authority in India strives for setting up of disaster management authority from the central government to the district level. Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction practice is still relevant as the communities are the victim as well as the first responder in any incidents. The primary goal of Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction is to reduce vulnerability of the concerned community and strengthen its existing capacity to cope with disaster. By involving the community in the preparedness phase, it not only increases the likelihood of coordinated action by the communities to help in mitigating disasters and lessening the impact of disaster but also brings the community together to address the issue collectively. Community participation ensures local ownership, addresses local needs, and promotes volunteerism and mutual help to prevent and minimise damage. Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction is very much relevant for Mizoram as the society is closed knit, population is very less, religion homogeneity i.e Christianity, very active and widespread community-based organization viz, Young Mizo Association, MHIP (Women Federation), MUP (Elders Clubs which are guided together by Mizo code of morals conduct termed as Tlawmngaihna.

Keywords: community, close-knit, first responder, Tlawmngaihna

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Authors: Sonia Regina Lyra

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The desire for unequivocal clarity is understandable, but this can make one forget that things of the soul are experiential processes, or transformations, which should never be designated unilaterally if it is not wanted to transform something that moves, a living thing, into something static. Among the so-called ‘things of the soul’ there are especially spontaneous fantasies, that emerge during the processes, as a result from the use of the active imagination technique, for when fantasy is not forced, violated, or subjugated by an illegitimate, intellectually preconceived idea, then it is a legitimate and authentic product of the unconscious mind. This is how one can gain access to unadulterated information about everything that transcends the conscious mind. However, it is vital to discern between ego and non-ego, because this principle will result in a release of energy and a renewal of life, which will come to have meaning. This study will deal with the active imagination as a knowledge that depends on the individual experience of the therapist because the patient will be taken just to reach where the unconscious of the therapist was assimilated to his own conscience. In this way, the therapist becomes the method itself, being his personality, a fundamental part of an effective factor.

Keywords: active imagination, effective factor, synchronicity, symptom

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Authors: Nima Amani, Ali Salehi Dastjerdi, Fatemeh Ahmadi, Ardalan Sabamehr

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The cost overrun of the construction projects has always been one of the main problems of the construction companies caused by the risky nature of the construction projects. Therefore, today, the application of risk management is inevitable. Although in theory, the issue of risk management is divided into the opportunities and threats management, in practice, most of the projects have been focused on the threats management. However, considering the opportunities management and applying the opportunities-response strategies can lead to the improved profitability of the construction projects of the companies. In this paper, a new technique is developed to identify the opportunities in the construction projects using an improved protocol and propose the appropriate opportunities-response strategies to the construction companies to provide them with higher profitability. To evaluate the effectiveness of the protocol for selecting the most appropriate strategies in ‎response to the opportunities and threats, two projects from a construction company in Iran were ‎studied. Both projects selected were in mid-range in terms of size and similar in terms of time, ‎run time and costs. Finally, the output indicates that using the proposed opportunities-response strategies show that the company's profitability in the future can be increased approximately for similar projects.

Keywords: opportunities management, risk-response strategy, opportunity-response strategy, productivity, risk management

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Authors: Y. Fekir, K. Mederbal, M. A. Hamadouche, D. Anteur

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The soil erosion by water has become one of the biggest problems of the environment in the world, threatening the majority of countries. There are several models to evaluate erosion. These models are still a simplified representation of reality. They permit the analysis of complex systems, measurements are complementary to allow an extrapolation in time and space and may combine different factors. The empirical model of soil loss proposed by Wischmeier and Smith (Universal Soil Loss Equation), is widely used in many countries. He considers that erosion is a multiplicative function of five factors: rainfall erosivity (the R factor) the soil erodibility factor (K), topography (LS), the erosion control practices (P) and vegetation cover and agricultural practices (C). In this work, we tried to develop a tool based on Web GIS functionality to evaluate soil losses caused by erosion taking into account five factors. This tool allows the user to integrate all the data needed for the evaluation (DEM, Land use, rainfall ...) in the form of digital layers to calculate the five factors taken into account in the USLE equation (R, K, C, P, LS). Accordingly, and after treatment of the integrated data set, a map of the soil losses will be achieved as a result. We tested the proposed tool on a watershed basin located in the weste of Algeria where a dataset was collected and prepared.

Keywords: USLE, erosion, web gis, Algeria

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Authors: L. Mercier, D. Beladjine, K. Beddiar

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The digital transition of building in France brings many changes which some have been able to face very quickly, while others are struggling to find their place and the interest that BIM can bring in their profession. BIM today is already adopted or initiated by construction professionals. However, this change, which can be drastic for some, prevents them from integrating it definitively. This is the case with architects. The profession is shared on the practice of BIM in its exercise. The risk of not adopting this new working method now and of not wanting to switch to its new digital tools leads us to question the future of the profession in view of the gap that is likely to be created within project management. In order to deal with the subject efficiently, our work was based on a documentary watch on BIM and then on the profession of architect, which allowed us to establish links on these two subjects. The observation of the economic model towards which the agencies tend and the trend of the sought after profiles made it possible to develop the opportunities and the brakes likely to impact the future of the profession of architect. The centralization of research directs work towards the conclusion that the model implemented by companies does not allow to integrate BIM within their structure. A solution hypothesis was then issued, focusing on the development of agencies through the diversity of profiles, skills to be integrated internally with the aim of diversifying their skills, and their business practices. In order to address this hypothesis of a multidisciplinary agency model, we conducted a survey of architectural firms. It is built on the model of Anglo-Saxon countries, which do not have the same functioning in comparison to the French model. The results obtained showed a risk of gradual disappearance on the market from small agencies in favor of those who will have and could take this BIM working method. This is why the architectural profession must, first of all, look at what is happening within its training before absolutely wanting to diversify the profiles to integrate into its structure. This directs the study on the training of architects. The schools of French architects are generally behind schedule if we allow the comparison to the schools of engineers. The latter is currently experiencing a slight improvement with the emergence of masters and BIM options during the university course. If the training of architects develops towards learning BIM and the agencies have the desire to integrate different but complementary profiles, then they will develop their skills internally and therefore open their profession to new functions. The place of BIM Management on projects will allow the architect to remain in control of the project because of their overall vision of the project. In addition, the integration of BIM and more generally of the life cycle analysis of the structure will make it possible to guarantee eco-design or eco-construction by approaching the constraints of sustainable development omnipresent on the planet.

Keywords: building information modelling, BIM, BIM management, BIM manager, BIM architect

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Authors: Mehrnoosh Mirzaei

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Children are among the most vulnerable at the occurrence of natural disasters such as earthquakes. Most of the management and measures which are considered for both before and during an earthquake are neither suitable nor efficient for this age group and cannot be applied. On the other hand, due to their age, it is hard to educate and train children to learn and understand the concept of earthquake risk mitigation as matters like earthquake prevention and safe places during an earthquake are not easily perceived. To our knowledge, children’s awareness of such concepts via their own world with the help of games is the best training method in this case. In this article, the researcher has tried to consider the child an active element before and during the earthquake. With training, provided by adults before the incidence of an earthquake, the child has the ability to learn disaster risk reduction (DRR). The focus of this research is on learning risk reduction behavior and regarding children as an individual element. The information of this article has been gathered from library resources, observations and the drawings of 10 children aged 5 whose subject was their conceptual definition of an earthquake who were asked to illustrate their conceptual definition of an earthquake; the results of 20 questionnaires filled in by preschoolers along with information gathered by interviewing them. The design of the suitable educational game, appropriate for the needs of this age group, has been made based on the theory of design with help of the user and the priority of children’s learning needs. The final result is a package of a game which is comprised of a learning table and matching cards showing sign marks for safe and unsafe places which introduce the safe behaviors and safe locations before and during the earthquake. These educational games can be used both in group contexts in kindergartens and on an individual basis at home, and they help in earthquake risk reduction.

Keywords: disaster education, earthquake sign marks, learning table, matching card, risk reduction behavior

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Authors: Bharath Anantharamaiah, Tomas Bouda, Elke Deckers, Stijn Jonckheere, Wim Desmet, Juan J. Garcia

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Automotive tyres are gaining importance recently in terms of their noise emission, not only with respect to reduction in noise, but also their perception and detection. Tyres exhibit a mechanical noise generation mechanism up to 1 kHz. However, owing to the fact that tyre is a composite of several materials, it has been difficult to model it using finite elements to predict noise at high frequencies. The currently available FE models have a reliability of about 500 Hz, the limit which, however, is not enough to perceive the roughness or sharpness of noise from tyre. These noise components are important in order to alert pedestrians on the street about passing by slow, especially electric vehicles. In order to model tyre noise behaviour up to 1 kHz, its dynamic behaviour must be accurately developed up to a 1 kHz limit using finite elements. Materials play a vital role in modelling the dynamic tyre behaviour precisely. Since tyre is a composition of several components, their precise definition in finite element simulations is necessary. However, during the tyre manufacturing process, these components are subjected to various pressures and temperatures, due to which these properties could change. Hence, material definitions are better described based on the tyre responses. In this work, the hyperelasticity of tyre component rubbers is calibrated, using the design of experiments technique from the tyre characteristic responses that are measured on a stiffness measurement machine. The viscoelasticity of rubbers are defined by the Prony series for rubbers, which are determined from the loss factor relationship between the loss and storage moduli, assuming that the rubbers are excited within the linear viscoelasticity ranges. These values of loss factor are measured and theoretically expressed as a function of rubber shore hardness or hyperelasticities. From the results of the work, there exists a good correlation between test and simulation vibrational transfer function up to 1 kHz. The model also allows flexibility, i.e., the frequency limit can also be extended, if required, by calibrating the Prony parameters of rubbers corresponding to the frequency of interest. As future work, these tyre models are used for noise generation at high frequencies and thus for tyre noise perception.

Keywords: tyre dynamics, rubber materials, prony series, hyperelasticity

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Authors: M. Mazraehli, F. Mehrabani, S. Zare

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In general, mechanical and hydraulic processes are not independent of each other in jointed rock masses. Therefore, the study on hydro-mechanical coupling of geomaterials should be a center of attention in rock mechanics. Rocks in their nature contain discontinuities whose presence extremely influences mechanical and hydraulic characteristics of the medium. Assuming this effect, experimental investigations on intact rock cannot help to identify jointed rock mass behavior. Hence, numerical methods are being used for this purpose. In this paper, water inflow into a tunnel under significant water table has been estimated using hydro-mechanical discrete element method (HM-DEM). Besides, effects of geomechanical and geometrical parameters including constitutive model, friction angle, joint spacing, dip of joint sets, and stress factor on the estimated inflow rate have been studied. Results demonstrate that inflow rates are not identical for different constitutive models. Also, inflow rate reduces with increased spacing and stress factor.

Keywords: distinct element method, fluid flow, hydro-mechanical coupling, jointed rock mass, underground excavations

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Authors: Sıdıka Kaya, Gülay Sain Güven, Seda Karsavuran, Onur Toka

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This study is part of an ongoing research project supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 114K404, and participation to this conference was supported by Hacettepe University Scientific Research Coordination Unit under Project Number 10243. Evaluation of hospital readmissions is gaining importance in terms of quality and cost, and is becoming the target of national policies. In Turkey, the topic of hospital readmission is relatively new on agenda and very few studies have been conducted on this topic. The aim of this study was to determine 30-day readmission rates and risk factors for readmission. Whether readmission was planned, related to the prior admission and avoidable or not was also assessed. The study was designed as a ‘prospective cohort study.’ 472 patients hospitalized in internal medicine departments of a university hospital in Turkey between February 1, 2015 and April 30, 2015 were followed up. Analyses were conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics version 22.0 and SPSS Modeler 16.0. Average age of the patients was 56 and 56% of the patients were female. Among these patients 95 were readmitted. Overall readmission rate was calculated as 20% (95/472). However, only 31 readmissions were unplanned. Unplanned readmission rate was 6.5% (31/472). Out of 31 unplanned readmission, 24 was related to the prior admission. Only 6 related readmission was avoidable. To determine risk factors for readmission we constructed Chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID) decision tree algorithm. CHAID decision trees are nonparametric procedures that make no assumptions of the underlying data. This algorithm determines how independent variables best combine to predict a binary outcome based on ‘if-then’ logic by portioning each independent variable into mutually exclusive subsets based on homogeneity of the data. Independent variables we included in the analysis were: clinic of the department, occupied beds/total number of beds in the clinic at the time of discharge, age, gender, marital status, educational level, distance to residence (km), number of people living with the patient, any person to help his/her care at home after discharge (yes/no), regular source (physician) of care (yes/no), day of discharge, length of stay, ICU utilization (yes/no), total comorbidity score, means for each 3 dimensions of Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale (patient’s personal status, patient’s knowledge, and patient’s coping ability) and number of daycare admissions within 30 days of discharge. In the analysis, we included all 95 readmitted patients (46.12%), but only 111 (53.88%) non-readmitted patients, although we had 377 non-readmitted patients, to balance data. The risk factors for readmission were found as total comorbidity score, gender, patient’s coping ability, and patient’s knowledge. The strongest identifying factor for readmission was comorbidity score. If patients’ comorbidity score was higher than 1, the risk for readmission increased. The results of this study needs to be validated by other data–sets with more patients. However, we believe that this study will guide further studies of readmission and CHAID is a useful tool for identifying risk factors for readmission.

Keywords: decision tree, hospital, internal medicine, readmission

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Authors: Debarati Bhaumik, Diptish Dey

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Multilevel models, increasingly deployed in industries such as insurance, food production, and entertainment within functions such as marketing and supply chain management, need to be transparent and ethical. Applications usually result in binary classification within groups or hierarchies based on a set of input features. Using open-source datasets, we demonstrate that popular explainability methods, such as SHAP and LIME, consistently underperform inaccuracy when interpreting these models. They fail to predict the order of feature importance, the magnitudes, and occasionally even the nature of the feature contribution (negative versus positive contribution to the outcome). Besides accuracy, the computational intractability of SHAP for binomial classification is a cause of concern. For transparent and ethical applications of these hierarchical statistical models, sound audit frameworks need to be developed. In this paper, we propose an audit framework for technical assessment of multilevel regression models focusing on three aspects: (i) model assumptions & statistical properties, (ii) model transparency using different explainability methods, and (iii) discrimination assessment. To this end, we undertake a quantitative approach and compare intrinsic model methods with SHAP and LIME. The framework comprises a shortlist of KPIs, such as PoCE (Percentage of Correct Explanations) and MDG (Mean Discriminatory Gap) per feature, for each of these three aspects. A traffic light risk assessment method is furthermore coupled to these KPIs. The audit framework will assist regulatory bodies in performing conformity assessments of AI systems using multilevel binomial classification models at businesses. It will also benefit businesses deploying multilevel models to be future-proof and aligned with the European Commission’s proposed Regulation on Artificial Intelligence.

Keywords: audit, multilevel model, model transparency, model explainability, discrimination, ethics

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Authors: Liaqat Ali, Khalid Farooq, Shafieullah Khan, Nasir Orakzai, Qudratullah

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Objectives: To determine the risk factors for high resistance of ciprofloxacin in complicated urinary tract infections. Materials and Methods: It is an analytical study that was conducted in the department of Urology (Team ‘C’) at Institute of Kidney Diseases Hayatabad Peshawar from 1st June 2012 till 31st December 2012. Total numbers of 100 patients with complicated UTI was selected in the study. Multivariate analysis and linear regression were performed for the detection of risk factors. All the data was recorded on structured Proforma and was analyzed on SPSS version 17. Results: The mean age of the patient was 55.6 years (Range 3-82 years). 62 patients were male while 38 patients were female. 66 isolates of E-Coli were found sensitive to ciprofloxacin while 34 isolates were found Resistant for ciprofloxacin. Using multivariate analysis and linear regression, an increasing age above 50 (p=0.002) History of urinary catheterization especially for bladder outflow obstruction (p=0.001) and previous multiple use of ciprofloxacin (p=0.001) and poor brand of ciprofloxacin were found to be independent risk factors for high resistance of ciprofloxacin. Conclusion: UTI is common illness across the globe with increasing trend of antimicrobial resistance for ciprofloxacin against E Coli in complicated UTI. The risk factors for emerging resistance are increasing age, urinary catheterization and multiple use and poor brand of ciprofloxacin.

Keywords: urinary tract infection, ciprofloxacin, urethral catheterization, antimicrobial resistance

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Authors: Theresa Adderley

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Background: Aside from abstinence, correct and consistent use of latex condoms is the best known effective method to reduce HIV transmission among sexually active heterosexual individuals. When condoms are correctly used, the risk of HIV transmission is reduced by approximately 85%, relative to risk when not protected during sexual intercourse. The literature provides evidence that heterosexual young adults continue to be the group among whom STI rates are highest and the group that engages in more sexual risk-taking behaviors such as inconsistent or no condom usage. This study examines condom attitudes, condom use self-efficacy and their contributions to safer sex behaviors among heterosexual men living in The Bahamas. Methods: Guided by the Theory of Planned Behavior, and a convenience sample of 185 heterosexual males (Mage= 31.95, SD = 11.35), three standardized instruments were used to assess behaviors that may not only place heterosexual males at risk for HIV infection but also their female partners. Results: The results of this study suggest that condom attitudes, and condom use self-efficacy are important in explaining 24% variance in safer sex behaviors among Bahamian men. Income (β= -.15, p < .01; condom attitudes, (β= .36, p < .01), and condom use self-efficacy (β= .1, p < .01) were significantly associated with safer sex behaviors. Conclusion: Rather than focusing only on the use of safer sex behaviors, an effective HIV prevention strategy must consider condom attitudes and condom use self-efficacy as specific variables that may contribute to perpetuating the transmission of HIV.

Keywords: condom attitudes, safer sex behaviors, HIV, condom self-efficacy

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Authors: Lorifel Hinay

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Natural disasters have increased in frequency and severity in the Philippines over the years resulting to detrimental impacts in school properties and lives of learners. The topography of the Province of Southern Leyte is a hotspot for inevitable natural disaster-causing hazards that could affect schools, cripple the educational system and cause environmental, cultural and social detrimental impacts making Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) an indispensable platform to keep learners safe, secure and resilient. This study determined the schools’ vulnerability and risk assessment to earthquake, landslide, flood, storm surge and tsunami hazards, and its relationship to status in disaster preparedness. Descriptive-correlational research design was used where the respondents were School DRRM Coordinators/School Administrators and Municipal DRRM Officers. It was found that schools’ vulnerability and risk were high in landslide, medium in earthquake, and low in flood, storm surge and tsunami. Though schools were moderately prepared in disasters across all hazards, they were less accomplished in group organization and property security. Less planning preparation and less implementation of DRRM measures were observed in schools highly at risk of earthquake and landslide. Also, schools vulnerable to landslide and flood have very high property security. Topography and location greatly contributed to schools’ vulnerability to hazards, thus, a school-based disaster preparedness plan is hoped to help ensure that hazard-exposed schools can build a culture of safety, disaster resiliency and education continuity.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction and management, earthquake, flood, landslide, storm surge, tsunami

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Authors: Redie Kidane Ghebrehawariat, Betiel Habte Hadgu, Filmon Berhane Kahsay, Rim Berhane Fisehaye, Samuel Haile Kahsay, Saron Yemane Yosief, Selemawit Mosazghi Gilazghi

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A cross-sectional study was conducted from 22 February to 9 April 2022 on small, medium, and large holder dairy farms to determine the bovine mastitis prevalence and associated risk factors in the Anseba region, Eritrea. A total of 34 dairy farms and 193 dairy cows were randomly selected. Dairy cows were physically examined for any change on the udder and milk; a California mastitis test was performed to check sub-clinical mastitis; a closed-ended semi-structured questionnaire composed of 28 variables/risk factors (21 management risk factors and 7 animal-level risk factors) was used to determine the risk factors responsible for clinical and sub-clinical mastitis in the dairy cows. The overall cow-level prevalence of mastitis was 147 (76.2%). The animal level prevalence rate of clinical and sub-clinical mastitis was found to be 22 (11.4%) and 125 (64.8%), respectively, while herd level prevalence both for clinical and subclinical mastitis was found to be 14 (41.2%) and 26 (76.5%) respectively. Based on the already set P-value, which is <0.05, a number of risk factors were found to have a significant relationship with the occurrence of clinical and sub-clinical mastitis. Generally, animal risk factors such as animal age, parity, injury on the udder or teat, and previous history of mastitis presence of injury on the udder and lactation stage were risk factors with a significant relationship with the occurrence of clinical and sub-clinical mastitis. On the other hand, management risk factors with a significant relationship to the occurrence of clinical and sub-clinical mastitis were herd size, failure to milk mastitic cow, at last, educational level, floor type, failure to use a towel, using one towel for more than one cow and failure to practice mastitis test. From a total of 772 quarters, 280 (36.3%) were found positive for sub-clinical mastitis using the California mastitis test; of these, 70 (9%) were weakly positive, 90 (11.7%) were distinct positive, and 120 (15.5%) were strongly positive. Furthermore, 13 (1.7%) quarters were blocked. Quarter level prevalence was right front 80 (41.5%), left front 64 (33.3%), right hind 69 (35.8%) and left hind 67 (34.7%). The study has shown that mastitis is a major problem for dairy farms and the findings suggested that mastitis is one of the limiting factors in increasing milk production. Subclinical mastitis was found to be a devastating problem, and it occurred in all three breeds of lactating dairy cattle. Therefore, farmers should work hard to avoid the above-mentioned risk factors to minimize the infection of their dairy cattle by mastitis and thereby increase their profit. On the other hand, the Ministry of Agriculture, through the extension unit, should work in close contact with the farmers to increase awareness of the economic importance of the disease and associated risk factors.

Keywords: mastitis, prevalence, dairy cattle, Anseba, Eritrea

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Authors: Wiqar Hussain Shah

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The electrical and thermal properties of the doped Tellurium Telluride (Tl10Te6) chalcogenide nano-particles are mainly characterized by a competition between metallic (hole doped concentration) and semi-conducting state. We have studied the effects of Sn doping on the electrical and thermoelectric properties of Tl10-xSnxTe6 (1.00 ≤x≤ 2.00), nano-particles, prepared by solid state reactions in sealed silica tubes and ball milling method. Structurally, all these compounds were found to be phase pure as confirmed by the x-rays diffractometery (XRD) and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) analysis. Additionally crystal structure data were used to model the data and support the findings. The particles size was calculated from the XRD data by Scherrer’s formula. The EDS was used for an elemental analysis of the sample and declares the percentage of elements present in the system. The thermo-power or Seebeck co-efficient (S) was measured for all these compounds which show that S increases with increasing temperature from 295 to 550 K. The Seebeck coefficient is positive for the whole temperature range, showing p-type semiconductor characteristics. The electrical conductivity was investigated by four probe resistivity techniques revealed that the electrical conductivity decreases with increasing temperature, and also simultaneously with increasing Sn concentration. While for Seebeck coefficient the trend is opposite which is increases with increasing temperature. These increasing behavior of Seebeck coefficient leads to high power factor which are increases with increasing temperature and Sn concentration except For Tl8Sn2Te6 because of lowest electrical conductivity but its power factor increases well with increasing temperature.

Keywords: Sn doping in Tellurium Telluride nano-materials, electron holes competition, Seebeck co-efficient, effects of Sn doping on Electrical conductivity, effects on Power factor

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Authors: Parul Kulshreshtha, Subrata Sinha, Rakesh Bhatnagar

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This study was conducted by taking B. anthracis as a model pathogen. On infecting a host, B. anthracis secretes three proteins, namely, protective antigen (PA, 83kDa), edema factor (EF, 89 kDa) and lethal factor (LF, 90 kDa). These three proteins are the components of two anthrax toxins. PA binds to the cell surface receptors, namely, tumor endothelial marker (TEM) 8 and capillary morphogenesis protein (CMG) 2. TEM8 and CMG2 interact with LDL-receptor related protein (LRP) 6 for endocytosis of EF and LF. On entering the cell, EF acts as a calmodulin-dependent adenylate cyclase that causes a prolonged increase of cytosolic cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP). LF is a metalloprotease that cleaves most isoforms of mitogen-activated protein kinase kinases (MAPKK/MEK) close to their N-terminus. By secreting these two toxins, B.anthracis ascertains death of the host. Once the systemic levels of the toxins rise, antibiotics alone cannot save the host. Therefore, toxin-specific inhibitors have to be developed. In this wake, monoclonal antibodies have been developed for the neutralization of toxic effects of anthrax toxins. We created hybridomas by using spleen of mice that were actively immunized with rLFn (recombinant N-terminal domain of lethal factor of B. anthracis) to obtain anti-toxin antibodies. Later on, separate group of mice were immunized with rLFn to obtain a polyclonal control for passive immunization studies of monoclonal antibodies. This led to the identification of one cohort of rLFn-immunized mice that harboured disease-enhancing polyclonal antibodies. At the same time, the monoclonal antibodies from all the hybridomas were being tested. Two hybridomas secreted monoclonal antibodies (H8 and H10) that were cross-reactive with EF (edema factor) and LF (lethal factor), while the other two hybridomas secreted LF-specific antibodies (H7 and H11). The protective efficacy of H7, H8, H10 and H11 was investigated. H7, H8 and H10 were found to be protective. H11 was found to have disease enhancing characteristics in-vitro and in mouse model of challenge with B. anthracis. In this study the disease enhancing character of H11 monoclonal antibody and anti-rLFn polyclonal sera was investigated. Combination of H11 with protective monoclonal antibodies (H8 and H10) reduced its disease enhancing nature both in-vitro and in-vivo. But combination of H11 with LETscFv (an scFv with VH and VL identical to H10 but lacking Fc region) could not abrogate the disease-enhancing character of H11 mAb. Therefore it was concluded that for suppression of disease enhancement, Fc portion was absolutely essential for interaction of H10 with H11. Our study indicates that the protective potential of an antibody depends equally on its idiotype/ antigen specificity and its isotype. A number of monoclonal and engineered antibodies are being explored as immunotherapeutics but it is absolutely essential to characterize each one for their individual and combined protective potential. Although new in the sphere of toxin-based diseases, it is extremely important to characterize the disease-enhancing nature of polyclonal as well as monoclonal antibodies. This is because several anti-viral therapeutics and vaccines have failed in the face of this phenomenon. The passive –immunotherapy thus needs to be well formulated to avoid any contraindications.

Keywords: immunotherapy, polyclonal, monoclonal, antibody-dependent disease enhancement

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Authors: Jaouadi Imen, Ben Djemaa Raoudha, Ben Abdallah Hanene

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The access to relevant information that is adapted to users’ needs, preferences and environment is a challenge in many applications running. That causes an appearance of context-aware systems. To facilitate the development of this class of applications, it is necessary that these applications share a common context meta-model. In this article, we will present our context meta-model that is defined using the OMG Meta Object facility (MOF). This meta-model is based on the analysis and synthesis of context concepts proposed in literature.

Keywords: context, meta-model, MOF, awareness system

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Authors: Yutaro Kyuma, Sung-Jun Yoo, Kazuhide Ito

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A commuter bus remains important as a means to network public transportation between railway stations and terminals within cities. In some cases, the boarding time becomes longer, and the boarding rate tends to be higher corresponding to the development of urban cities. The interior environmental quality, e.g. temperature and air quality, in a commuter bus is relatively heterogeneous and complex compared to that of an indoor environment in buildings due to several factors: solar radiative heat – which comes from large-area windows –, inadequate ventilation rate caused by high density of commuters, and metabolic heat generation from travelers themselves. In addition to this, under conditions where many passengers ride in the enclosed space, contact and airborne infectious risk have attracted considerable attention in terms of public health. From this point of view, it is essential to develop the prediction method for assessment of interior environmental quality and infection risk in commuter bus cabins. In this study, we developed a numerical commuter bus model integrated with computer simulated persons to reproduce realistic indoor environment conditions with high occupancy during commuting. Here, computer simulated persons were newly designed considering different types of geometries, e.g., standing position, seating position, and individual differences. Here we conducted coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis with radiative heat transfer analysis under steady state condition. Distributions of heterogeneous air flow patterns, temperature, and moisture surrounding the human body under some different ventilation system were analyzed by using CFD technique, and skin surface temperature distributions were analyzed using thermoregulation model that integrated into computer simulated person. Through these analyses, we discussed the interior environmental quality in specific commuter bus cabins. Further, inhaled air quality of each passenger was also analyzed. This study may have possibility to design the ventilation system in bus for improving thermal comfort of occupants.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, CFD, computer simulated person, CSP, contaminant, indoor environment, public health, ventilation

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Authors: Nisha Nandlal Sharma, Julaluk Carmai, Saiprasit Koetniyom, Bernd Markert

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Whiplash Injuries are usually associated with car accidents. The sudden forward or backward jerk to head causes neck strain, which is the result of damage to the muscle or tendons. Neck pain and headaches are the two most common symptoms of whiplash. Symptoms of whiplash are commonly reported in studies but the Injury mechanism is poorly understood. Neck muscles are the most important factor to study the neck Injury. This study focuses on the development of finite element (FE) model of human neck muscle to study the whiplash injury mechanism and effect of active muscle contraction on occupant kinematics. A detailed study of Injury mechanism will promote development and evaluation of new safety systems in cars, hence reducing the occurrence of severe injuries to the occupant. In present study, an active human finite element (FE) model with 3D neck muscle model is developed. Neck muscle was modeled with a combination of solid tetrahedral elements and 1D beam elements. Muscle active properties were represented by beam elements whereas, passive properties by solid tetrahedral elements. To generate muscular force according to inputted activation levels, Hill-type muscle model was applied to beam elements. To simulate non-linear passive properties of muscle, solid elements were modeled with rubber/foam material model. Material properties were assigned from published experimental tests. Some important muscles were then inserted into THUMS (Total Human Model for Safety) 50th percentile male pedestrian model. To reduce the simulation time required, THUMS lower body parts were not included. Posterior to muscle insertion, THUMS was given a boundary conditions similar to experimental tests. The model was exposed to 4g and 7g rear impacts as these load impacts are close to low speed impacts causing whiplash. The effect of muscle activation level on occupant kinematics during whiplash was analyzed.

Keywords: finite element model, muscle activation, neck muscle, whiplash injury prevention

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Authors: Ali Maksum

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In a number of countries, including Indonesia, the tendency for non-communicable diseases is increasing. As a result, health costs must be paid by the state continues to increase as well. People's lifestyles, including due to lack of physical activity, are thought to have contributed significantly to the problem. This study aims to examine the impact of participation in sports on quality of life, which is reflected in three main indicators, namely health, psychological, and social aspects. The study was conducted in the city of Surabaya and its surroundings, with a total of 490 participants, consisting of 245 men and 245 women with an average age of 45.4 years. Data on physical activity and quality of life were collected by questionnaire and analyzed using structural equation modeling. The test results of the model prove that the value of chi-square = 8,259 with p = .409, RMSEA = .008, NFI = .992, and CFI = 1. This means that the model is compatible with the data. The model explains that physical activity has a significant effect on quality of life. People who exercise regularly are better able to cope with stress, have a lower risk of illness, and have higher pro-social behavior. Therefore, it needs serious efforts from stakeholders, especially the government, to create an ecosystem that allows the growth of movement culture in the community.

Keywords: participation, physical activity, quality of life, structural equation modelling

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Authors: Vijaya Nirmala Pangi, K. V. Subhramanyam, C. Vijay Lakshmi

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Background: The prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus is increasing drastically at a vigorous rate all over the world population. Aim: The present study aims to determine the prevalence of type-2 diabetes mellitus in Paderu tribal area population of Visakhapatnam district, located in northeastern region of Andhra Pradesh. Methods: A random sampling method was followed in 1025 subjects including controls (n=25) and determined 75-g oral glucose tolerance test to assess the presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus. The effect of anthropometric factors like age, gender, literacy, socio economic status, and environmental risk factors such as body fat response, hypertension and psychophysical stress response were determined in the studied subjects. Results: 78 (7.8%) were diabetic. Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus was found to be comparable between the two genders. Prevalence of diabetes was observed to be high in illiterate, low economic status subjects. Body fat response was comparable between control and diabetic subjects. However hypertension, stress associated enzymes showed significant (p < 0.05) decrease in diabetic subjects compared to controls in both the genders. Conclusion: It appears that there is a rising pattern in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus in tribal area, Paderu, Andhra Pradesh, India compared to previous rural studies.

Keywords: anthropometric studies, hypertension, oral glucose tolerance test, stress enzymes, type-2 diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Ahmad Alsaber

Abstract:

This paper aims to understand the intermediary role of the payment platform applications by analyzing the various factors that can influence the desirability of utilizing said payment services in Kuwait, as well as to determine the effect of the presence of different types of payment platforms on the variables of the “Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology” (UTAUT) model. The UTAUT model's findings will provide an important understanding of the moderating role of payment platform mobile applications. This study will explore the influence of payment platform mobile applications on customer purchase intentions in Kuwait by employing a quantitative survey of 200 local customers. Questions will cover their usage of payment platforms, purchase intent, and overall satisfaction. The information gathered is then analyzed using descriptive statistics and correlation analysis in order to gain insights. The research hopes to provide greater insight into the effect of mobile payment platforms on customer purchase intentions in Kuwait. This research will provide important implications to marketers and customer service providers, informing their strategies and initiatives, as well as offer recommendations to payment platform providers on how to improve customer satisfaction and security. The study results suggest that the likelihood of a purchase is affected by performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, risk, and trust. The purpose of this research is to understand the advancements in the different variables that Kuwaiti customers consider while dealing with mobile banking applications. With the implementation of stronger security measures, progressively more payment platform applications are being utilized in the Kuwaiti marketplace, making them more desirable with their accessibility and usability. With the development of the Kuwaiti digital economy, it is expected that mobile banking will have a greater impact on banking transactions and services in the future.

Keywords: purchase intention, UTAUT, performance expectancy, social influence, risk, trust

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Authors: Rajesh Singh, Kailash Kale

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In this paper, the Binomial process type occurrence of software failures is considered and failure intensity has been characterized by one parameter Rayleigh class Software Reliability Growth Model (SRGM). The proposed SRGM is mathematical function of parameters namely; total number of failures i.e. η-0 and scale parameter i.e. η-1. It is assumed that very little or no information is available about both these parameters and then considering non-informative priors for both these parameters, the Bayes estimators for the parameters η-0 and η-1 have been obtained under square error loss function. The proposed Bayes estimators are compared with their corresponding maximum likelihood estimators on the basis of risk efficiencies obtained by Monte Carlo simulation technique. It is concluded that both the proposed Bayes estimators of total number of failures and scale parameter perform well for proper choice of execution time.

Keywords: binomial process, non-informative prior, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), rayleigh class, software reliability growth model (SRGM)

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Authors: Debasis Sarkar

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Clean development mechanism (CDM) can act as an effective instrument for mitigating climate change. This mechanism can effectively reduce the emission of CO2 and other green house gases (GHG). Construction of a mega infrastructure project like underground corridor construction for metro rail operation involves in consumption of substantial quantity of concrete which consumes huge quantity of energy consuming materials like cement and steel. This paper is an attempt to develop an integrated clean development mechanism and risk management approach for sustainable development for an underground corridor metro rail project in India during its construction phase. It was observed that about 35% reduction in CO2 emission can be obtained by adding fly ash as a part replacement of cement. The reduced emission quantity of CO2 which is of the quantum of about 21,646.36 MT would result in cost savings of approximately INR 8.5 million (USD 1,29,878).But construction and operation of such infrastructure projects of the present era are subject to huge risks and uncertainties throughout all the phases of the project, thus reducing the probability of successful completion of the project within stipulated time and cost frame. Thus, an integrated approach of combining CDM with risk management would enable the metro rail authorities to develop a sustainable risk mitigation measure framework to ensure more cost and energy savings and lesser time and cost over-run.

Keywords: clean development mechanism (CDM), infrastructure transportation, project risk management, underground metro rail

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Authors: Mohamed Saïd Kahaleras, François Lanzetta, Mohamed Khan, Guillaume Layes, Philippe Nika

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This paper presents an experimental work to characterize the dynamic operation of a metal regenerator crossed by dry compressible air alternating flow. Unsteady dynamic measurements concern the pressure, velocity and temperature of the gas at the ends and inside the channels of the regenerator. The regenerators are tested under isothermal conditions and thermal axial temperature gradient.

Keywords: friction factor, oscillating flow, regenerator, stirling machine

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Authors: Jan Van Uden

Abstract:

The paper reviews classical agency-theory and its contributions to the analysis of complex business negotiations and gives an approach for the modification of the basic agency-model in order to examine the negotiation specific dimensions of agency-problems. By illustrating fundamental potentials for the modification of agency-theory in context of business negotiations the paper highlights recent empirical research that investigates agent-based negotiations and inter-team constellations. A general theoretical analysis of complex negotiation would be based on a two-level approach. First, the modification of the basic agency-model in order to illustrate the organizational context of business negotiations (i.e., multi-agent issues, common-agencies, multi-period models and the concept of bounded rationality). Second, the application of the modified agency-model on complex business negotiations to identify agency-problems and relating areas of risk in the negotiation process. The paper is placed on the first level of analysis – the modification. The method builds on the one hand on insights from behavior decision research (BRD) and on the other hand on findings from agency-theory as normative directives to the modification of the basic model. Through neoclassical assumptions concerning the fundamental aspects of agency-relationships in business negotiations (i.e., asymmetric information, self-interest, risk preferences and conflict of interests), agency-theory helps to draw solutions on stated worst-case-scenarios taken from the daily negotiation routine. As agency-theory is the only universal approach able to identify trade-offs between certain aspects of economic cooperation, insights obtained provide a deeper understanding of the forces that shape business negotiation complexity. The need for a modification of the basic model is illustrated by highlighting selected issues of business negotiations from agency-theory perspective: Negotiation Teams require a multi-agent approach under the condition that often decision-makers as superior-agents are part of the team. The diversity of competences and decision-making authority is a phenomenon that overrides the assumptions of classical agency-theory and varies greatly in context of certain forms of business negotiations. Further, the basic model is bound to dyadic relationships preceded by the delegation of decision-making authority and builds on a contractual created (vertical) hierarchy. As a result, horizontal dynamics within the negotiation team playing an important role for negotiation success are therefore not considered in the investigation of agency-problems. Also, the trade-off between short-term relationships within the negotiation sphere and the long-term relationships of the corporate sphere calls for a multi-period perspective taking into account the sphere-specific governance-mechanisms already established (i.e., reward and monitoring systems). Within the analysis, the implementation of bounded rationality is closely related to findings from BRD to assess the impact of negotiation behavior on underlying principal-agent-relationships. As empirical findings show, the disclosure and reservation of information to the agent affect his negotiation behavior as well as final negotiation outcomes. Last, in context of business negotiations, asymmetric information is often intended by decision-makers acting as superior-agents or principals which calls for a bilateral risk-approach to agency-relations.

Keywords: business negotiations, agency-theory, negotiation analysis, interteam negotiations

Procedia PDF Downloads 135