Search results for: long crack fatigue threshold
6198 Safety of Mesenchymal Stem Cells Therapy: Potential Risk of Spontaneous Transformations
Authors: Katarzyna Drela, Miroslaw Wielgos, Mikolaj Wrobel, Barbara Lukomska
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Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have a great potential in regenerative medicine. Since the initial number of isolated MSCs is limited, in vitro propagation is often required to reach sufficient numbers of cells for therapeutic applications. During long-term culture MSCs may undergo genetic or epigenetic alterations that subsequently increase the probability of spontaneous malignant transformation. Thus, factors that influence genomic stability of MSCs following long-term expansions need to be clarified before cultured MSCs are employed for clinical application. The aim of our study was to investigate the potential for spontaneous transformation of human neonatal cord blood (HUCB-MSCs) and adult bone marrow (BM-MSCs) derived MSCs. Materials and Methods: HUCB-MSCs and BM-MSCs were isolated by standard Ficoll gradient centrifugations method. Isolated cells were initially plated in high density 106 cells per cm2. After 48 h medium were changed and non-adherent cells were removed. The malignant transformation of MSCs in vitro was evaluated by morphological changes, proliferation rate, ability to enter cell senescence, the telomerase expression and chromosomal abnormality. Proliferation of MSCs was analyzed with WST-1 reduction method and population doubling time (PDT) was calculated at different culture stages. Then the expression pattern of genes characteristic for mesenchymal or epithelial cells, as well as transcriptions factors were examined by RT-PCR. Concomitantly, immunocytochemical analysis of gene-related proteins was employed. Results: Our studies showed that MSCs from all bone marrow isolations ultimately entered senescence and did not undergo spontaneous malignant transformation. However, HUCB-MSCs from one of the 15 donors displayed an increased proliferation rate, failed to enter senescence, and exhibited an altered cell morphology. In this sample we observed two different cell phenotypes: one mesenchymal-like exhibited spindle shaped morphology and express specific mesenchymal surface markers (CD73, CD90, CD105, CD166) with low proliferation rate, and the second one with round, densely package epithelial-like cells with significantly increased proliferation rate. The PDT of epithelial-like populations was around 1day and 100% of cells were positive for proliferation marker Ki-67. Moreover, HUCB-MSCs showed a positive expression of human telomerase reverse transcriptase (hTERT), cMYC and exhibit increased number of CFU during the long-term culture in vitro. Furthermore, karyotype analysis revealed chromosomal abnormalities including duplications. Conclusions: Our studies demonstrate that HUCB-MSCs are susceptible to spontaneous malignant transformation during long-term culture. Spontaneous malignant transformation process following in vitro culture has enormous effect on the biosafety issues of future cell-based therapies and regenerative medicine regimens.Keywords: mesenchymal stem cells, spontaneous, transformation, long-term culture
Procedia PDF Downloads 2686197 Facility Anomaly Detection with Gaussian Mixture Model
Authors: Sunghoon Park, Hank Kim, Jinwon An, Sungzoon Cho
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Internet of Things allows one to collect data from facilities which are then used to monitor them and even predict malfunctions in advance. Conventional quality control methods focus on setting a normal range on a sensor value defined between a lower control limit and an upper control limit, and declaring as an anomaly anything falling outside it. However, interactions among sensor values are ignored, thus leading to suboptimal performance. We propose a multivariate approach which takes into account many sensor values at the same time. In particular Gaussian Mixture Model is used which is trained to maximize likelihood value using Expectation-Maximization algorithm. The number of Gaussian component distributions is determined by Bayesian Information Criterion. The negative Log likelihood value is used as an anomaly score. The actual usage scenario goes like a following. For each instance of sensor values from a facility, an anomaly score is computed. If it is larger than a threshold, an alarm will go off and a human expert intervenes and checks the system. A real world data from Building energy system was used to test the model.Keywords: facility anomaly detection, gaussian mixture model, anomaly score, expectation maximization algorithm
Procedia PDF Downloads 2736196 Detection of Patient Roll-Over Using High-Sensitivity Pressure Sensors
Authors: Keita Nishio, Takashi Kaburagi, Yosuke Kurihara
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Recent advances in medical technology have served to enhance average life expectancy. However, the total time for which the patients are prescribed complete bedrest has also increased. With patients being required to maintain a constant lying posture- also called bedsore- development of a system to detect patient roll-over becomes imperative. For this purpose, extant studies have proposed the use of cameras, and favorable results have been reported. Continuous on-camera monitoring, however, tends to violate patient privacy. We have proposed unconstrained bio-signal measurement system that could detect body-motion during sleep and does not violate patient’s privacy. Therefore, in this study, we propose a roll-over detection method by the date obtained from the bi-signal measurement system. Signals recorded by the sensor were assumed to comprise respiration, pulse, body motion, and noise components. Compared the body-motion and respiration, pulse component, the body-motion, during roll-over, generate large vibration. Thus, analysis of the body-motion component facilitates detection of the roll-over tendency. The large vibration associated with the roll-over motion has a great effect on the Root Mean Square (RMS) value of time series of the body motion component calculated during short 10 s segments. After calculation, the RMS value during each segment was compared to a threshold value set in advance. If RMS value in any segment exceeded the threshold, corresponding data were considered to indicate occurrence of a roll-over. In order to validate the proposed method, we conducted experiment. A bi-directional microphone was adopted as a high-sensitivity pressure sensor and was placed between the mattress and bedframe. Recorded signals passed through an analog Band-pass Filter (BPF) operating over the 0.16-16 Hz bandwidth. BPF allowed the respiration, pulse, and body-motion to pass whilst removing the noise component. Output from BPF was A/D converted with the sampling frequency 100Hz, and the measurement time was 480 seconds. The number of subjects and data corresponded to 5 and 10, respectively. Subjects laid on a mattress in the supine position. During data measurement, subjects—upon the investigator's instruction—were asked to roll over into four different positions—supine to left lateral, left lateral to prone, prone to right lateral, and right lateral to supine. Recorded data was divided into 48 segments with 10 s intervals, and the corresponding RMS value for each segment was calculated. The system was evaluated by the accuracy between the investigator’s instruction and the detected segment. As the result, an accuracy of 100% was achieved. While reviewing the time series of recorded data, segments indicating roll-over tendencies were observed to demonstrate a large amplitude. However, clear differences between decubitus and the roll-over motion could not be confirmed. Extant researches possessed a disadvantage in terms of patient privacy. The proposed study, however, demonstrates more precise detection of patient roll-over tendencies without violating their privacy. As a future prospect, decubitus estimation before and after roll-over could be attempted. Since in this paper, we could not confirm the clear differences between decubitus and the roll-over motion, future studies could be based on utilization of the respiration and pulse components.Keywords: bedsore, high-sensitivity pressure sensor, roll-over, unconstrained bio-signal measurement
Procedia PDF Downloads 1216195 Mechanical Properties, Vibrational Response and Flow-Field Analysis of Staghorn Coral Skeleton, Acropora cervicornis
Authors: Alejandro Carrasco-Pena, Mahmoud Omer, Nina Orlovskaya
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The results of studies of microstructure, mechanical behavior, vibrational response, and flow field analysis of critically endangered staghorn coral (Acropora cervicornis) skeletons are reported. The CaCO₃ aragonite structure of a chemically-cleaned coral skeleton of A. cervicornis was studied by optical microscopy and computer tomography. The mechanical behavior was studied using uniaxial compression and Vickers hardness technique. The average maximum stress measured during skeleton uniaxial compression was 10.7 ± 2.24 MPa and Vickers hardness was 3.56 ± 0.31 GPa. The vibrational response of the aragonite structure was studied by micro-Raman spectroscopy, which showed a substantial dependence of the structure on applied compressive stress. The flow-field around a single coral skeleton forming vortices in the wake of the moving skeleton was measured using Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). The results are important for further analysis of time-dependent mechanical fatigue behavior and predicting the lifetime of staghorn corals.Keywords: failure, mechanical properties, microstructure, Raman spectroscopy
Procedia PDF Downloads 1566194 Evaluating Acid Buffering Capacity of Sewage Sludge Barrier for Inhibiting Remobilization of Heavy Metals in Tailing Impoundment
Authors: Huyuan Zhang, Yi Chen
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Compacted sewage sludge has been proved to be feasible as a barrier material for tailing impoundment because of its low permeability and retardation of heavy metals. The long-term penetration of acid mine drainage, however, would acidify the barrier system and result in remobilization of previously immobilized heavy metal pollutants. In this study, the effect of decreasing pH on the mobility of three typical heavy metals (Zn, Pb, and Cu) is investigated by acid titration test on sewage sludge under various conditions. The remobilization of heavy metals is discussed based on the acid buffering capacity of sewage sludge-leachate system. Test results indicate that heavy metals are dramatically released out when pH is decreased below 6.2, and their amounts take the order of Zn > Cu > Pb. The acid buffering capacity of sewage sludge decreases with the solid-liquid ratio but increases with the anaerobic incubation time, and it is mainly governed by dissolution of contained carbonate and organics. These results reveal that the sewage sludge possesses enough acid buffering capacity to consume protons within the acid mine drainage. Thus, this study suggests that an explosive remobilization of heavy metals is not expected in a long-term perspective.Keywords: acid buffering capacity, barrier, heavy metals, remobilization, sewage sludge
Procedia PDF Downloads 3216193 Detection of Intravenous Infiltration Using Impedance Parameters in Patients in a Long-Term Care Hospital
Authors: Ihn Sook Jeong, Eun Joo Lee, Jae Hyung Kim, Gun Ho Kim, Young Jun Hwang
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This study investigated intravenous (IV) infiltration using bioelectrical impedance for 27 hospitalized patients in a long-term care hospital. Impedance parameters showed significant differences before and after infiltration as follows. First, the resistance (R) after infiltration significantly decreased compared to the initial resistance. This indicates that the IV solution flowing from the vein due to infiltration accumulates in the extracellular fluid (ECF). Second, the relative resistance at 50 kHz was 0.94 ± 0.07 in 9 subjects without infiltration and was 0.75 ± 0.12 in 18 subjects with infiltration. Third, the magnitude of the reactance (Xc) decreased after infiltration. This is because IV solution and blood components released from the vein tend to aggregate in the cell membrane (and acts analogously to the linear/parallel circuit), thereby increasing the capacitance (Cm) of the cell membrane and reducing the magnitude of reactance. Finally, the data points plotted in the R-Xc graph were distributed on the upper right before infiltration but on the lower left after infiltration. This indicates that the infiltration caused accumulation of fluid or blood components in the epidermal and subcutaneous tissues, resulting in reduced resistance and reactance, thereby lowering integrity of the cell membrane. Our findings suggest that bioelectrical impedance is an effective method for detection of infiltration in a noninvasive and quantitative manner.Keywords: intravenous infiltration, impedance, parameters, resistance, reactance
Procedia PDF Downloads 1836192 A Near-Optimal Domain Independent Approach for Detecting Approximate Duplicates
Authors: Abdelaziz Fellah, Allaoua Maamir
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We propose a domain-independent merging-cluster filter approach complemented with a set of algorithms for identifying approximate duplicate entities efficiently and accurately within a single and across multiple data sources. The near-optimal merging-cluster filter (MCF) approach is based on the Monge-Elkan well-tuned algorithm and extended with an affine variant of the Smith-Waterman similarity measure. Then we present constant, variable, and function threshold algorithms that work conceptually in a divide-merge filtering fashion for detecting near duplicates as hierarchical clusters along with their corresponding representatives. The algorithms take recursive refinement approaches in the spirit of filtering, merging, and updating, cluster representatives to detect approximate duplicates at each level of the cluster tree. Experiments show a high effectiveness and accuracy of the MCF approach in detecting approximate duplicates by outperforming the seminal Monge-Elkan’s algorithm on several real-world benchmarks and generated datasets.Keywords: data mining, data cleaning, approximate duplicates, near-duplicates detection, data mining applications and discovery
Procedia PDF Downloads 3876191 Cadaveric Dissection versus Systems-Based Anatomy: Testing Final Year Student Surface Anatomy Knowledge to Compare the Long-Term Effectiveness of Different Course Structures
Authors: L. Sun, T. Hargreaves, Z. Ahmad
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Newly-qualified Foundation Year 1 doctors in the United Kingdom are frequently expected to perform practical skills involving the upper limb in clinical practice (for example, venipuncture, cannulation, and blood gas sampling). However, a move towards systems-based undergraduate medical education in the United Kingdom often precludes or limits dedicated time to anatomy teaching with cadavers or prosections, favouring only applied anatomy in the context of pathology. The authors hypothesised that detailed anatomical knowledge may consequently be adversely affected, particularly with respect to long-term retention. A simple picture quiz and accompanying questionnaire testing the identification of 7 upper limb surface landmarks was distributed to a total of 98 final year medical students from two universities - one with a systems-based curriculum, and one with a dedicated longitudinal dissection-based anatomy module in the first year of study. Students with access to dissection and prosection-based anatomy teaching performed more strongly, with a significantly higher rate of correct identification of all but one of the landmarks. Furthermore, it was notable that none of the students who had previously undertaken a systems-based course scored full marks, compared with 20% of those who had participated in the more dedicated anatomy course. This data suggests that a traditional, dissection-based approach to undergraduate anatomy teaching is superior to modern system-based curricula, in terms of aiding long-term retention of anatomical knowledge pertinent to newly-qualified doctors. The authors express concern that this deficit in proficiency could be detrimental to patient care in clinical practice, and propose that, where dissection-led anatomy teaching is not available, further anatomy revision modules are implemented throughout undergraduate education to aid knowledge retention and support clinical excellence.Keywords: dissection, education, surface anatomy, upper limb
Procedia PDF Downloads 1326190 The Rupture of Tendon Achilles During the Recreative and Sports Activities
Authors: Jasmin S. Nurkovic, Ljubisa Dj. Jovasevic, Zana C. Dolicanin, Zoran S. Bajin
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Ruptured muscles and tendons very often must be repatriated by open operation in young persons. In young, muscles are ruptured more often than tendons, at the sane time in older persons are more exposed to rupture than muscles. Ruptured of the calcaneus are the most present of all ruptures. Sometime the rupture is complete, but very often the incomplete rupture can be noticed. During six years, from 2006 to 2012, we treated nineteen male patients and three female patients with the rupture of tendon Achilles. The youngest patient was aged thirty two, and the oldest was also managed sixty four. The youngest female patient was forty one and the oldest was forty six. One of our patients who was under corticosteroid treatment did not take any part in sport activities but she was, as she told us, going for a long walk, the same was with other two patients one man and one woman. We had nineteen male patients age 32 to 64 and three female patients age 41, 44 and 46. Conservative treatment by cast was applied in five patients and very good results were in three of them. In two patients surgical treatment failed in patient’s age 53 and 64. Only one of all patients treated by surgery had healing problems because of necrotic changes of the skin where incision was made. One of our female patients age 45 was under steroid treatment for almost 20 years because of asthmatic problems. We suggested her wearing boots with 8cm long heels by day and by night eight weeks. The final results were satisfactory and all the time she was able to work and to walk. It was the only case we had with bilateral tendon rupture. After eight weeks the cast is removed and psychiatric treatment started, patient is using crutches with partial weight bearing over a period of two weeks. Quite the same treatment conservative treatment, only the cast is not removed after two but after four weeks. Everyday activities after the surgical treatment started ten weeks and sport activities can start after fourteen to sixteen weeks. An increased activity of our patient without previous preparing for forces activity can result, as we already see, with tendon rupture. Treatment is very long and very often surgical. We find that surgical treatment resulted as safer and better solution for patients. We also had a patient with spontaneous rupture of tendon during longer walking but this patient was under prolonged corticosteroid treatment.Keywords: tendon, Achilles, rupture, sport
Procedia PDF Downloads 2486189 Consumers Attitude toward the Latest Trends in Decreasing Energy Consumption of Washing Machine
Authors: Farnaz Alborzi, Angelika Schmitz, Rainer Stamminger
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Reducing water temperatures in the wash phase of a washing programme and increasing the overall cycle durations are the latest trends in decreasing energy consumption of washing programmes. Since the implementation of the new energy efficiency classes in 2010, manufacturers seem to apply the aforementioned washing strategy with lower temperatures combined with longer programme durations extensively to realise energy-savings needed to meet the requirements of the highest energy efficiency class possible. A semi-representative on-line survey in eleven European countries (Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom) was conducted by Bonn University in 2015 to shed light on consumer opinion and behaviour regarding the effects of the lower washing temperature and longer cycle duration in laundry washing on consumers’ acceptance of the programme. The risk of the long wash cycle is that consumers might not use the energy efficient Standard programmes and will think of this option as inconvenient and therefore switch to shorter, but more energy consuming programmes. Furthermore, washing in a lower temperature may lead to the problem of cross-contamination. Washing behaviour of over 5,000 households was studied in this survey to provide support and guidance for manufacturers and policy designers. Qualified households were chosen following a predefined quota: -Involvement in laundry washing: substantial, -Distribution of gender: more than 50 % female , -Selected age groups: -20–39 years, -40–59 years, -60–74 years, -Household size: 1, 2, 3, 4 and more than 4 people. Furthermore, Eurostat data for each country were used to calculate the population distribution in the respective age class and household size as quotas for the consumer survey distribution in each country. Before starting the analyses, the validity of each dataset was controlled with the aid of control questions. After excluding the outlier data, the number of the panel diminished from 5,100 to 4,843. The primary outcome of the study is European consumers are willing to save water and energy in a laundry washing but reluctant to use long programme cycles since they don’t believe that the long cycles could be energy-saving. However, the results of our survey don’t confirm that there is a relation between frequency of using Standard cotton (Eco) or Energy-saving programmes and the duration of the programmes. It might be explained by the fact that the majority of washing programmes used by consumers do not take so long, perhaps consumers just choose some additional time reduction option when selecting those programmes and this finding might be changed if the Energy-saving programmes take longer. Therefore, it may be assumed that introducing the programme duration as a new measure on a revised energy label would strongly influence the consumer at the point of sale. Furthermore, results of the survey confirm that consumers are more willing to use lower temperature programmes in order to save energy than accepting longer programme cycles and majority of them accept deviation from the nominal temperature of the programme as long as the results are good.Keywords: duration, energy-saving, standard programmes, washing temperature
Procedia PDF Downloads 2226188 Revisiting the Impact of Oil Price on Trade Deficit of Pakistan: Evidence from Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model and Asymmetric Multipliers
Authors: Qaiser Munir, Hamid Hussain
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Oil prices are believed to have a major impact on several economic indicators, leading to several instances where a comparison between oil prices and a trade deficit of oil-importing countries have been carried out. Building upon the narrative, this paper sheds light on the ongoing debate by inquiring upon the possibility of asymmetric linkages between oil prices, industrial production, exchange rate, whole price index, and trade deficit. The analytical tool used to further understand the complexities of a recent approach called nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag model (NARDL) is utilised. Our results suggest that there are significant asymmetric effects among the main variables of interest. Further, our findings indicate that any variation in oil prices, industrial production, exchange rate, and whole price index on trade deficit tend to fluctuate in the long run. Moreover, the long-run picture denotes that increased oil price leads to a negative impact on the trade deficit, which, in its true essence, is a disproportionate impact. In addition to this, the Wald test simultaneously conducted concludes the absence of any significant evidence of the asymmetry in the oil prices impact on the trade balance in the short-run.Keywords: trade deficit, oil prices, developing economy, NARDL
Procedia PDF Downloads 1346187 Yawning and Cortisol as a Potential Biomarker for Early Detection of Multiple Sclerosis
Authors: Simon B. N. Thompson
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Cortisol is essential to the regulation of the immune system and yawning is a pathological symptom of multiple sclerosis (MS). Electromyography activity (EMG) in the jaw muscles typically rises when the muscles are moved and with yawning is highly correlated with cortisol levels in healthy people. Saliva samples from 59 participants were collected at the start and after yawning, or at the end of the presentation of yawning-provoking stimuli, in the absence of a yawn, together with EMG data and questionnaire data: Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Yawning Susceptibility Scale, General Health Questionnaire, demographic, health details. Exclusion criteria: chronic fatigue, diabetes, fibromyalgia, heart condition, high blood pressure, hormone replacement therapy, multiple sclerosis, stroke. Significant differences were found between the saliva cortisol samples for the yawners, t (23) = -4.263, p = 0.000, as compared with the non-yawners between rest and post-stimuli, which was non-significant. Significant evidence was found to support the Thompson Cortisol Hypothesis suggesting that rises in cortisol levels are associated with yawning. Further research is exploring the use of cortisol as an early diagnostic tool for MS. Ethics approval granted and professional code of conduct, confidentiality, and safety issues are approved therein.Keywords: cortisol, multiple sclerosis, yawning, thompson cortisol hypothesis
Procedia PDF Downloads 3786186 A Long Short-Term Memory Based Deep Learning Model for Corporate Bond Price Predictions
Authors: Vikrant Gupta, Amrit Goswami
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The fixed income market forms the basis of the modern financial market. All other assets in financial markets derive their value from the bond market. Owing to its over-the-counter nature, corporate bonds have relatively less data publicly available and thus is researched upon far less compared to Equities. Bond price prediction is a complex financial time series forecasting problem and is considered very crucial in the domain of finance. The bond prices are highly volatile and full of noise which makes it very difficult for traditional statistical time-series models to capture the complexity in series patterns which leads to inefficient forecasts. To overcome the inefficiencies of statistical models, various machine learning techniques were initially used in the literature for more accurate forecasting of time-series. However, simple machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vectors, random forests fail to provide efficient results when tested on highly complex sequences such as stock prices and bond prices. hence to capture these intricate sequence patterns, various deep learning-based methodologies have been discussed in the literature. In this study, a recurrent neural network-based deep learning model using long short term networks for prediction of corporate bond prices has been discussed. Long Short Term networks (LSTM) have been widely used in the literature for various sequence learning tasks in various domains such as machine translation, speech recognition, etc. In recent years, various studies have discussed the effectiveness of LSTMs in forecasting complex time-series sequences and have shown promising results when compared to other methodologies. LSTMs are a special kind of recurrent neural networks which are capable of learning long term dependencies due to its memory function which traditional neural networks fail to capture. In this study, a simple LSTM, Stacked LSTM and a Masked LSTM based model has been discussed with respect to varying input sequences (three days, seven days and 14 days). In order to facilitate faster learning and to gradually decompose the complexity of bond price sequence, an Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) has been used, which has resulted in accuracy improvement of the standalone LSTM model. With a variety of Technical Indicators and EMD decomposed time series, Masked LSTM outperformed the other two counterparts in terms of prediction accuracy. To benchmark the proposed model, the results have been compared with traditional time series models (ARIMA), shallow neural networks and above discussed three different LSTM models. In summary, our results show that the use of LSTM models provide more accurate results and should be explored more within the asset management industry.Keywords: bond prices, long short-term memory, time series forecasting, empirical mode decomposition
Procedia PDF Downloads 1376185 Improved Soil and Snow Treatment with the Rapid Update Cycle Land-Surface Model for Regional and Global Weather Predictions
Authors: Tatiana G. Smirnova, Stan G. Benjamin
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Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) was a land-surface component in several generations of operational weather prediction models at the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It was designed for short-range weather predictions with an emphasis on severe weather and originally was intentionally simple to avoid uncertainties from poorly known parameters. Nevertheless, the RUC LSM, when coupled with the hourly-assimilating atmospheric model, can produce a realistic evolution of time-varying soil moisture and temperature, as well as the evolution of snow cover on the ground surface. This result is possible only if the soil/vegetation/snow component of the coupled weather prediction model has sufficient skill to avoid long-term drift. RUC LSM was first implemented in the operational NCEP Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather model in 1998 and later in the Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF)-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). Being available to the international WRF community, it was implemented in operational weather models in Austria, New Zealand, and Switzerland. Based on the feedback from the US weather service offices and the international WRF community and also based on our own validation, RUC LSM has matured over the years. Also, a sea-ice module was added to RUC LSM for surface predictions over the Arctic sea-ice. Other modifications include refinements to the snow model and a more accurate specification of albedo, roughness length, and other surface properties. At present, RUC LSM is being tested in the regional application of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). The next generation UFS-based regional Rapid Refresh FV3 Standalone (RRFS) model will replace operational RAP and HRRR at NCEP. Over time, RUC LSM participated in several international model intercomparison projects to verify its skill using observed atmospheric forcing. The ESM-SnowMIP was the last of these experiments focused on the verification of snow models for open and forested regions. The simulations were performed for ten sites located in different climatic zones of the world forced with observed atmospheric conditions. While most of the 26 participating models have more sophisticated snow parameterizations than in RUC, RUC LSM got a high ranking in simulations of both snow water equivalent and surface temperature. However, ESM-SnowMIP experiment also revealed some issues in the RUC snow model, which will be addressed in this paper. One of them is the treatment of grid cells partially covered with snow. RUC snow module computes energy and moisture budgets of snow-covered and snow-free areas separately by aggregating the solutions at the end of each time step. Such treatment elevates the importance of computing in the model snow cover fraction. Improvements to the original simplistic threshold-based approach have been implemented and tested both offline and in the coupled weather model. The detailed description of changes to the snow cover fraction and other modifications to RUC soil and snow parameterizations will be described in this paper.Keywords: land-surface models, weather prediction, hydrology, boundary-layer processes
Procedia PDF Downloads 906184 Covid-19, Diagnosis with Computed Tomography and Artificial Intelligence, in a Few Simple Words
Authors: Angelis P. Barlampas
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Target: The (SARS-CoV-2) is still a threat. AI software could be useful, categorizing the disease into different severities and indicate the extent of the lesions. Materials and methods: AI is a new revolutionary technique, which uses powered computerized systems, to do what a human being does more rapidly, more easily, as accurate and diagnostically safe as the original medical report and, in certain circumstances, even better, saving time and helping the health system to overcome problems, such as work overload and human fatigue. Results: It will be given an effort to describe to the inexperienced reader (see figures), as simple as possible, how an artificial intelligence system diagnoses computed tomography pictures. First, the computerized machine learns the physiologic motives of lung parenchyma by being feeded with normal structured images of the lung tissue. Having being used to recognizing normal structures, it can then easily indentify the pathologic ones, as their images do not fit to known normal picture motives. It is the same way as when someone spends his free time in reading magazines with quizzes, such as <Keywords: covid-19, artificial intelligence, automated imaging, CT, chest imaging
Procedia PDF Downloads 536183 The Potential of Tempo-Oxidized Cellulose Nanofibers to Replace EthylenE-propylene-Diene Monomer Rubber
Authors: Sibel Dikmen Kucuk, Yusuf Guner
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In recent years, petroleum-based polymers began to be limited due to the effects on the human and environmental point of view in many countries. Thus, organic-based biodegradable materials have attracted much interest in the composite industry because of environmental concerns. As a result of this, it has been asked that inorganic and petroleum-based materials should be reduced and altered with biodegradable materials. In this point, in this study, it is aimed to investigate the potential of the use of TEMPO (2,2,6,6- tetramethylpiperidine 1-oxyl)-mediated oxidation nano-fibrillated cellulose instead of EPDM (ethylene-propylene-diene monomer) rubber, which is a petroleum-based material. Thus, the exchange of petroleum-based EPDM rubber with organic-based cellulose nanofibers, which are environmentally friendly (green) and biodegradable, will be realized. The effect of tempo-oxidized cellulose nanofibers (TCNF) instead of EPDM rubber was analyzed by rheological, mechanical, chemical, thermal, and aging analyses. The aged surfaces were visually scrutinized, and surface morphological changes were examined via scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The results obtained showed that TEMPO oxidation nano-fibrillated cellulose could be used at an amount of 1.0 and 2.2 phr resulting the values stay within tolerance according to customer standard and without any chemical degradation, crack, color change or staining.Keywords: EPDM, lignin, green materials, biodegradable fillers
Procedia PDF Downloads 1296182 E-Consumers’ Attribute Non-Attendance Switching Behavior: Effect of Providing Information on Attributes
Authors: Leonard Maaya, Michel Meulders, Martina Vandebroek
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Discrete Choice Experiments (DCE) are used to investigate how product attributes affect decision-makers’ choices. In DCEs, choice situations consisting of several alternatives are presented from which choice-makers select the preferred alternative. Standard multinomial logit models based on random utility theory can be used to estimate the utilities for the attributes. The overarching principle in these models is that respondents understand and use all the attributes when making choices. However, studies suggest that respondents sometimes ignore some attributes (commonly referred to as Attribute Non-Attendance/ANA). The choice modeling literature presents ANA as a static process, i.e., respondents’ ANA behavior does not change throughout the experiment. However, respondents may ignore attributes due to changing factors like availability of information on attributes, learning/fatigue in experiments, etc. We develop a dynamic mixture latent Markov model to model changes in ANA when information on attributes is provided. The model is illustrated on e-consumers’ webshop choices. The results indicate that the dynamic ANA model describes the behavioral changes better than modeling the impact of information using changes in parameters. Further, we find that providing information on attributes leads to an increase in the attendance probabilities for the investigated attributes.Keywords: choice models, discrete choice experiments, dynamic models, e-commerce, statistical modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 1426181 Articulating Competencies Confidently: Employability in the Curriculum
Authors: Chris Procter
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There is a significant debate on the role of University education in developing or teaching employability skills. Should higher education attempt to do this? Is it the best place? Is it able to do so? Different views abound, but the question is wrongly posed – one of the reasons that previous employability initiatives foundered (e.g., in the UK). Our role is less to teach than to guide, less to develop and more to help articulate: “the mind is not a vessel to be filled, but a fire to be lit” (Plutarch). This paper then addresses how this can be achieved taking into account criticism of employability initiatives as well as relevant learning theory. It discusses the experience of a large module which involved students being assessed on all stages of application for a live job description together with reflection on their professional development. The assessment itself adopted a Patchwork Text approach as a vehicle for learning. Students were guided to evaluate their strengths and areas to be developed, articulate their competencies, and reflect upon their development, moving on to new Thresholds of Employability. The paper uses the student voices to express the progress they made. It concludes that employability can and should be an effective part of the higher education curriculum when designed to encourage students to confidently articulate their competencies and take charge of their own professional development.Keywords: competencies, employability, patchwork assessment, threshold concepts
Procedia PDF Downloads 2176180 Minimizing the Impact of Covariate Detection Limit in Logistic Regression
Authors: Shahadut Hossain, Jacek Wesolowski, Zahirul Hoque
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In many epidemiological and environmental studies covariate measurements are subject to the detection limit. In most applications, covariate measurements are usually truncated from below which is known as left-truncation. Because the measuring device, which we use to measure the covariate, fails to detect values falling below the certain threshold. In regression analyses, it causes inflated bias and inaccurate mean squared error (MSE) to the estimators. This paper suggests a response-based regression calibration method to correct the deleterious impact introduced by the covariate detection limit in the estimators of the parameters of simple logistic regression model. Compared to the maximum likelihood method, the proposed method is computationally simpler, and hence easier to implement. It is robust to the violation of distributional assumption about the covariate of interest. In producing correct inference, the performance of the proposed method compared to the other competing methods has been investigated through extensive simulations. A real-life application of the method is also shown using data from a population-based case-control study of non-Hodgkin lymphoma.Keywords: environmental exposure, detection limit, left truncation, bias, ad-hoc substitution
Procedia PDF Downloads 2386179 Long Term Evolution Multiple-Input Multiple-Output Network in Unmanned Air Vehicles Platform
Authors: Ashagrie Getnet Flattie
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Line-of-sight (LOS) information, data rates, good quality, and flexible network service are limited by the fact that, for the duration of any given connection, they experience severe variation in signal strength due to fading and path loss. Wireless system faces major challenges in achieving wide coverage and capacity without affecting the system performance and to access data everywhere, all the time. In this paper, the cell coverage and edge rate of different Multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) schemes in 20 MHz Long Term Evolution (LTE) system under Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAV) platform are investigated. After some background on the enormous potential of UAV, MIMO, and LTE in wireless links, the paper highlights the presented system model which attempts to realize the various benefits of MIMO being incorporated into UAV platform. The performances of the three MIMO LTE schemes are compared with the performance of 4x4 MIMO LTE in UAV scheme carried out to evaluate the improvement in cell radius, BER, and data throughput of the system in different morphology. The results show that significant performance gains such as bit error rate (BER), data rate, and coverage can be achieved by using the presented scenario.Keywords: LTE, MIMO, path loss, UAV
Procedia PDF Downloads 2796178 Experimental and Numerical Studies on Earthquake Shear Rupture Generation
Authors: Louis N. Y. Wong
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En-echelon fractures are commonly found in rocks, which appear as a special set of regularly oriented and spaced fractures. By using both experimental and numerical approaches, this study investigates the interaction among them, and how this interaction finally contributes to the development of a shear rupture (fault), especially in brittle natural rocks. Firstly, uniaxial compression tests are conducted on marble specimens containing en-echelon flaws. The latter is cut by using the water abrasive jet into the rock specimens. The fracturing processes of these specimens leading to the formation of a fault are observed in detail by the use of a high speed camera. The influences of the flaw geometry on the production of tensile cracks and shear cracks, which in turn dictate the coalescence patterns of the entire set of en-echelon flaws are comprehensively studied. Secondly, a numerical study based on a recently developed contact model, flat-joint contact model using the discrete element method (DEM) is carried out to model the present laboratory experiments. The numerical results provide a quantitative assessment of the interaction of en-echelon flaws. Particularly, the evolution of the stress field, as well as the characteristics of new crack initiation, propagation and coalescence associated with the generation of an eventual shear rupture are studied in detail. The numerical results are found to agree well with the experimental results obtained in both microscopic and macroscopic observations.Keywords: discrete element method, en-echelon flaws, fault, marble
Procedia PDF Downloads 2566177 Assessing the Bioactivity and Cell Viability of Apatite-Wollastonite Glass Ceramics Prepared via Spray Pyrolysis
Authors: Andualem Workie
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In this study, we examined the sinterability and bioactivity of MgO-SiO₂-P₂O₅-CaO-CaF₂ glass compositions created through spray pyrolysis. We evaluated the bioactivity of the materials by immersing them for varying periods of time in simulated bodily fluid (SBF) and found that bioactivity was related to the sintering temperature and soaking time. The material's pH value during immersion in SBF was within the range of 7.4-8.2, which is below 8.5 and improves compatibility and reduces toxicity in biological applications. We used X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy to determine the phase compositions and morphologies of the samples and found that the 1100°C sintered A-W GC sample exhibited the highest bioactivity after soaking in SBF. This sample was dominated by fluorapatite, wollastonite, and whitlockite crystals scattered throughout the glass matrix. The crystallinity (%) of the A-W GC increased as its bioactivity improved, making it more suitable for use in pharmaceutical applications. We also conducted a cytotoxicity test on A-W GC samples sintered at different temperatures and found that the glass-ceramics were non-toxic to MC3T3-E1 cells at all extraction concentrations, except for those sintered at 700°C at concentrations of 250, 200, and 150 mg/ml where cell viability (%) was below the threshold of 70%.Keywords: apatite wollastonite glass ceramics, bioactivity, calcination, cell viability
Procedia PDF Downloads 1056176 Social and Cognitive Stress Impact on Neuroscience and PTSD
Authors: Sadra Abbasi
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The complex connection between psychological stress and the onset of different diseases has been an ongoing issue in the mental health field for a long time. Multiple studies have demonstrated that long-term stress can greatly heighten the likelihood of developing health issues like heart disease, cancer, arthritis, and severe depression. Recent research in cognitive science has provided insight into the intricate processes involved in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), suggesting that distinct memory systems are accountable for both vivid reliving and normal autobiographical memories of traumatic incidents, as proposed by dual representation theory. This theory has important consequences for our comprehension of the neural mechanisms involved in fear and behavior related to threats, highlighting the amygdala-hippocampus-medial prefrontal cortex circuit as a crucial component in this process. This particular circuit, extensively researched in behavioral neuroscience, is essential for regulating the body's reactions to stress and trauma. This review will examine how incorporating a modern neuroscience viewpoint into an integrative case formulation offers a current way to comprehend the intricate connections among psychological stress, trauma, and disease.Keywords: social, cognitive, stress, neuroscience, behavior, PTSD
Procedia PDF Downloads 376175 Multi-Dimensional (Quantatative and Qualatative) Longitudinal Research Methods for Biomedical Research of Post-COVID-19 (“Long Covid”) Symptoms
Authors: Steven G. Sclan
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Background: Since December 2019, the world has been afflicted by the spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Corona Virus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), which is responsible for the condition referred to as Covid-19. The illness has had a cataclysmic impact on the political, social, economic, and overall well-being of the population of the entire globe. While Covid-19 has had a substantial universal fatality impact, it may have an even greater effect on the socioeconomic, medical well-being, and healthcare planning for remaining societies. Significance: As these numbers illustrate, many more persons survive the infection than die from it, and many of those patients have noted ongoing, persistent symptoms after successfully enduring the acute phase of the illness. Recognition and understanding of these symptoms are crucial for developing and arranging efficacious models of care for all patients (whether or not having been hospitalized) surviving acute covid illness and plagued by post-acute symptoms. Furthermore, regarding Covid infection in children (< 18 y/o), although it may be that Covid “+” children are not major vectors of infective transmission, it now appears that many more children than initially thought are carrying the virus without accompanying obvious symptomatic expression. It seems reasonable to wonder whether viral effects occur in children – those children who are Covid “+” and now asymptomatic – and if, over time, they might also experience similar symptoms. An even more significant question is whether Covid “+” asymptomatic children might manifest increased multiple health problems as they grow – i.e., developmental complications (e.g., physical/medical, metabolic, neurobehavioral, etc.) – in comparison to children who had been consistently Covid “ - ” during the pandemic. Topics Addressed and Theoretical Importance: This review is important because of the description of both quantitative and qualitative methods for clinical and biomedical research. Topics reviewed will consider the importance of well-designed, comprehensive (i.e., quantitative and qualitative methods) longitudinal studies of Post Covid-19 symptoms in both adults and children. Also reviewed will be general characteristics of longitudinal studies and a presentation of a model for a proposed study. Also discussed will be the benefit of longitudinal studies for the development of efficacious interventions and for the establishment of cogent, practical, and efficacious community healthcare service planning for post-acute covid patients. Conclusion: Results of multi-dimensional, longitudinal studies will have important theoretical implications. These studies will help to improve our understanding of the pathophysiology of long COVID and will aid in the identification of potential targets for treatment. Such studies can also provide valuable insights into the long-term impact of COVID-19 on public health and socioeconomics.Keywords: COVID-19, post-COVID-19, long COVID, longitudinal research, quantitative research, qualitative research
Procedia PDF Downloads 606174 Working at the Interface of Health and Criminal Justice: An Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis Exploration of the Experiences of Liaison and Diversion Nurses – Emerging Findings
Authors: Sithandazile Masuku
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Introduction: Public health approaches to offender mental health are driven by international policies and frameworks in response to the disproportionately large representation of people with mental health problems within the offender pathway compared to the general population. Public health service innovations include mental health courts in the US, restorative models in Singapore and, liaison and diversion services in Australia, the UK, and some other European countries. Mental health nurses are at the forefront of offender health service innovations. In the U.K. context, police custody has been identified as an early point within the offender pathway where nurses can improve outcomes by offering assessments and share information with criminal justice partners. This scope of nursing practice has introduced challenges related to skills and support required for nurses working at the interface of health and the criminal justice system. Parallel literature exploring experiences of nurses working in forensic settings suggests the presence of compassion fatigue, burnout and vicarious trauma that may impede risk harm to the nurses in these settings. Published research explores mainly service-level outcomes including monitoring of figures indicative of a reduction in offending behavior. There is minimal research exploring the experiences of liaison and diversion nurses who are situated away from a supportive clinical environment and engaged in complex autonomous decision-making. Aim: This paper will share qualitative findings (in progress) from a PhD study that aims to explore the experiences of liaison and diversion nurses in one service in the U.K. Methodology: This is a qualitative interview study conducted using an Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis to gain an in-depth analysis of lived experiences. Methods: A purposive sampling technique was used to recruit n=8 mental health nurses registered with the UK professional body, Nursing and Midwifery Council, from one UK Liaison and Diversion service. All participants were interviewed online via video call using semi-structured interview topic guide. Data were recorded and transcribed verbatim. Data were analysed using the seven steps of the Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis data analysis method. Emerging Findings Analysis to date has identified pertinent themes: • Difficulties of meaning-making for nurses because of the complexity of their boundary spanning role. • Emotional burden experienced in a highly emotive and fast-changing environment. • Stress and difficulties with role identity impacting on individual nurses’ ability to be resilient. • Challenges to wellbeing related to a sense of isolation when making complex decisions. Conclusion Emerging findings have highlighted the lived experiences of nurses working in liaison and diversion as challenging. The nature of the custody environment has an impact on role identity and decision making. Nurses left feeling isolated and unsupported are less resilient and may go on to experience compassion fatigue. The findings from this study thus far point to a need to connect nurses working in these boundary spanning roles with a supportive infrastructure where the complexity of their role is acknowledged, and they can be connected with a health agenda. In doing this, the nurses would be protected from harm and the likelihood of sustained positive outcomes for service users is optimised.Keywords: liaison and diversion, nurse experiences, offender health, staff wellbeing
Procedia PDF Downloads 1386173 Discovery of Exoplanets in Kepler Data Using a Graphics Processing Unit Fast Folding Method and a Deep Learning Model
Authors: Kevin Wang, Jian Ge, Yinan Zhao, Kevin Willis
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Kepler has discovered over 4000 exoplanets and candidates. However, current transit planet detection techniques based on the wavelet analysis and the Box Least Squares (BLS) algorithm have limited sensitivity in detecting minor planets with a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and long periods with only 3-4 repeated signals over the mission lifetime of 4 years. This paper presents a novel precise-period transit signal detection methodology based on a new Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) Fast Folding algorithm in conjunction with a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to detect low SNR and/or long-period transit planet signals. A comparison with BLS is conducted on both simulated light curves and real data, demonstrating that the new method has higher speed, sensitivity, and reliability. For instance, the new system can detect transits with SNR as low as three while the performance of BLS drops off quickly around SNR of 7. Meanwhile, the GPU Fast Folding method folds light curves 25 times faster than BLS, a significant gain that allows exoplanet detection to occur at unprecedented period precision. This new method has been tested with all known transit signals with 100% confirmation. In addition, this new method has been successfully applied to the Kepler of Interest (KOI) data and identified a few new Earth-sized Ultra-short period (USP) exoplanet candidates and habitable planet candidates. The results highlight the promise for GPU Fast Folding as a replacement to the traditional BLS algorithm for finding small and/or long-period habitable and Earth-sized planet candidates in-transit data taken with Kepler and other space transit missions such as TESS(Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite) and PLATO(PLAnetary Transits and Oscillations of stars).Keywords: algorithms, astronomy data analysis, deep learning, exoplanet detection methods, small planets, habitable planets, transit photometry
Procedia PDF Downloads 2266172 An Investigation on Orthopedic Rehabilitation by Avoiding Thermal Necrosis
Authors: R. V. Dahibhate, A. B. Deoghare, P. M. Padole
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Maintaining natural integrity of biosystem is paramount significant for orthopedic surgeon while performing surgery. Restoration is challenging task to rehabilitate trauma patient. Drilling is an inevitable procedure to fix implants. The task leads to rise in temperature at the contact site which intends to thermal necrosis. A precise monitoring can avoid thermal necrosis. To accomplish it, data acquiring instrument is integrated with the drill bit. To contemplate it, electronic feedback system is developed. It not only measures temperature without any physical contact in between measuring device and target but also visualizes the site and monitors correct movement of tool path. In the current research work an infrared thermometer data acquisition system is used which monitors variation in temperature at the drilling site and a camera captured movement of drill bit advancement. The result is presented in graphical form which represents variations in temperature, drill rotation and time. A feedback system helps in keeping drill speed in threshold limit.Keywords: thermal necrosis, infrared thermometer, drilling tool, feedback system
Procedia PDF Downloads 2336171 An Ancient Rule for Constructing Dodecagonal Quasi-Periodic Formations
Authors: Rima A. Ajlouni
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The discovery of quasi-periodic structures in material science is revealing an exciting new class of symmetries, which has never been explored before. Due to their unique structural and visual properties, these symmetries are drawing interest from many scientific and design disciplines. Especially, in art and architecture, these symmetries can provide a rich source of geometry for exploring new patterns, forms, systems, and structures. However, the structural systems of these complicated symmetries are still posing a perplexing challenge. While much of their local order has been explored, the global governing system is still unresolved. Understanding their unique global long-range order is essential to their generation and application. The recent discovery of dodecagonal quasi-periodic patterns in historical Islamic architecture is generating a renewed interest into understanding the mathematical principles of traditional Islamic geometry. Astonishingly, many centuries before its description in the modern science, ancient artists, by using the most primitive tools (a compass and a straight edge), were able to construct patterns with quasi-periodic formations. These ancient patterns can be found all over the ancient Islamic world, many of which exhibit formations with 5, 8, 10 and 12 quasi-periodic symmetries. Based on the examination of these historical patterns and derived from the generating principles of Islamic geometry, a global multi-level structural model is presented that is able to describe the global long-range order of dodecagonal quasi-periodic formations in Islamic Architecture. Furthermore, this method is used to construct new quasi-periodic tiling systems as well as generating their deflation and inflation rules. This method can be used as a general guiding principle for constructing infinite patches of dodecagon-based quasi-periodic formations, without the need for local strategies (tiling, matching, grid, substitution, etc.) or complicated mathematics; providing an easy tool for scientists, mathematicians, teachers, designers and artists, to generate and study a wide range of dodecagonal quasi-periodic formations.Keywords: dodecagonal, Islamic architecture, long-range order, quasi-periodi
Procedia PDF Downloads 4036170 Novel Hybrid Ceramic Nanocomposites Fabricated by Rapid Sintering Technology
Authors: Iftikhar Ahmad, Abulhakim Almajid
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Alumina (Al2O3) is an attractive structural ceramic however; brittleness turns Al2O3 down for advanced applications. Development of multi-phase phase ceramics systems is promising to curtail the brittleness and the incorporation of strong/elastic graphene, as third phase, into dual phase (Al2O3-SiC) is striking for mechanical upgrading purpose. Thin graphene nanosheets (GNS) were prepared by thermal exfoliation process and reinforced into dual phase ceramic system. The hybrid nanocomposite was consolidated by novel HF-IH (high-frequency induction heating) sintering furnace at 1500 °C under 50 MPa in vacuum conditions. Structural features and grain size of the resulting nanocomposite were analyzed by SEM and TEM whilst the mechanical properties were assessed by microhardness and nanoindentation techniques. The fracture toughness of the hybrid nanocomposites was appraised by direct crack measurement method. Electron microscopic investigations confirmed the preparation of thin (< 10 nm) graphene nanosheets (GNS). HF-IH sintering route condensed the three-phase (GNS-Al2O3-SiC) hybrid nanocomposite system to > 99% relative densities. SEM of the hybrid nanocomposites fractured surfaces revealed even distribution of the nanocomposite constituents and changed in fracture-mode. Structurally, 88% grain reduction into hybrid nanocomposite was also obtained. Mechanically, enhanced fracture toughness (50%) and hardness (53%) were also achieved for hybrid nanocomposites were attained against bench marked monolithic Al2O3.Keywords: alumina, graphene, hybrid nanocomposites, rapid sintering
Procedia PDF Downloads 3806169 Teleconnection between El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Seasonal Flow of the Surma River and Possibilities of Long Range Flood Forecasting
Authors: Monika Saha, A. T. M. Hasan Zobeyer, Nasreen Jahan
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El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the interaction between atmosphere and ocean in tropical Pacific which causes inconsistent warm/cold weather in tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Due to the impact of climate change, ENSO events are becoming stronger in recent times, and therefore it is very important to study the influence of ENSO in climate studies. Bangladesh, being in the low-lying deltaic floodplain, experiences the worst consequences due to flooding every year. To reduce the catastrophe of severe flooding events, non-structural measures such as flood forecasting can be helpful in taking adequate precautions and steps. Forecasting seasonal flood with a longer lead time of several months is a key component of flood damage control and water management. The objective of this research is to identify the possible strength of teleconnection between ENSO and river flow of Surma and examine the potential possibility of long lead flood forecasting in the wet season. Surma is one of the major rivers of Bangladesh and is a part of the Surma-Meghna river system. In this research, sea surface temperature (SST) has been considered as the ENSO index and the lead time is at least a few months which is greater than the basin response time. The teleconnection has been assessed by the correlation analysis between July-August-September (JAS) flow of Surma and SST of Nino 4 region of the corresponding months. Cumulative frequency distribution of standardized JAS flow of Surma has also been determined as part of assessing the possible teleconnection. Discharge data of Surma river from 1975 to 2015 is used in this analysis, and remarkable increased value of correlation coefficient between flow and ENSO has been observed from 1985. From the cumulative frequency distribution of the standardized JAS flow, it has been marked that in any year the JAS flow has approximately 50% probability of exceeding the long-term average JAS flow. During El Nino year (warm episode of ENSO) this probability of exceedance drops to 23% and while in La Nina year (cold episode of ENSO) it increases to 78%. Discriminant analysis which is known as 'Categoric Prediction' has been performed to identify the possibilities of long lead flood forecasting. It has helped to categorize the flow data (high, average and low) based on the classification of predicted SST (warm, normal and cold). From the discriminant analysis, it has been found that for Surma river, the probability of a high flood in the cold period is 75% and the probability of a low flood in the warm period is 33%. A synoptic parameter, forecasting index (FI) has also been calculated here to judge the forecast skill and to compare different forecasts. This study will help the concerned authorities and the stakeholders to take long-term water resources decisions and formulate policies on river basin management which will reduce possible damage of life, agriculture, and property.Keywords: El Nino-Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature, surma river, teleconnection, cumulative frequency distribution, discriminant analysis, forecasting index
Procedia PDF Downloads 156