Search results for: Bayesian estimation

Authors: Vladimir A. Todiras

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Spatio-temporal models provide new possibilities for real-time action in pest risk analysis. It should be noted that estimation of the possibility and probability of introduction of a pest and of its economic consequences involves many uncertainties. We present a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk using online BioClass software. BioClass is a GIS tool designed to solve multiple-criteria classification and optimization problems based on fuzzy logic and level set methods. This research describes a method for predicting the potential establishment and spread of a plant pest into new areas using a case study: corn rootworm (Diabrotica spp.), tomato leaf miner (Tuta absoluta) and plum fruit moth (Grapholita funebrana). Our study demonstrated that in BioClass we can combine fuzzy logic and geographic information systems with knowledge of pest biology and environmental data to derive new information for decision making. Pests are sensitive to a warming climate, as temperature greatly affects their survival and reproductive rate and capacity. Changes have been observed in the distribution, frequency and severity of outbreaks of Helicoverpa armigera on tomato. BioClass has demonstrated to be a powerful tool for applying dynamic models and map the potential future distribution of a species, enable resource to make decisions about dangerous and invasive species management and control.

Keywords: classification, model, pest, risk

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar, Arumugam Sankaran, Arjun K., Mousumi Das

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The amount of domestic consumption and population growth is having a positive impact on economic growth and development as observed by the Harrod-Domar and endogenous growth models. The paper negates the Solow growth model which argues the population growth has a detrimental impact on per capita and steady-state growth. Unlike the Solow model, the paper observes, the per capita income growth never falls zero, and it sustains as positive. Hence, our goal here is to investigate the relationship among population, domestic consumption and economic growth of India. For this estimation, annual data from 1980-2016 has been collected from World Development Indicator and Reserve Bank of India. To know the long run as well as short-run dynamics among the variables, we have employed the ARDL bounds testing approach of cointegration followed by modified Wald causality test to know the direction of causality. The conclusion from cointegration and ARDL estimates reveal that there is a long run positive and statistically significant relationship among the variables under study. At the same time, the causality test shows that there is a causal relationship that exists among the variables. Hence, this calls for policies which have a long run perspective in strengthening the capabilities and entitlements of people and stabilizing domestic demand so as to serve long run and short run growth and stability of the economy.

Keywords: cointegration, consumption, economic development, population growth

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Authors: Muhammad Jamil, Ning He, Wei Zhao

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It is a rough estimation that the aerospace companies received orders of 37000 new aircraft, including the air ambulances, until 2037. And titanium alloys have a 15% contribution in modern aircraft's manufacturing owing to the high strength/weight ratio. Despite their application in the aerospace and medical equipment manufacturing industry, still, their high-speed machining puts a challenge in terms of tool wear, heat generation, and poor surface quality. Among titanium alloys, Ti-6Al-4V is the major contributor to aerospace application. However, its poor thermal conductivity (6.7W/mK) accumulates shear and friction heat at the tool-chip interface zone. To dissipate the heat generation and friction effect, cryogenic cooling, Minimum quantity lubrication (MQL), nanofluids, hybrid cryogenic-MQL, solid lubricants, etc., are applied frequently to underscore their significant effect on improving the machinability of Ti-6Al-4V. Nowadays, hybrid lubri-cooling is getting attention from researchers to explore their effect regarding the hard-to-cut Ti-6Al-4V. Therefore, this study is devoted to exploring the effect of hybrid ethanol-ester oil MQL regarding the cutting temperature, surface integrity, and tool life. As the ethanol provides -OH group and ester oil of long-chain molecules provide a tribo-film on the tool-workpiece interface. This could be a green manufacturing alternative for the manufacturing industry.

Keywords: hybrid lubri-cooling, surface roughness, tool wear, MQL

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Authors: Hicham Gourgue, Ahmed Aharoune, Ahmed Ihlal

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We present in this work our model of road traffic emissions (line sources) and dispersion of these emissions, named DISPOLSPEM (Dispersion of Poly Sources and Pollutants Emission Model). In its emission part, this model was designed to keep the consistent bottom-up and top-down approaches. It also allows to generate emission inventories from reduced input parameters being adapted to existing conditions in Morocco and in the other developing countries. While several simplifications are made, all the performance of the model results are kept. A further important advantage of the model is that it allows the uncertainty calculation and emission rate uncertainty according to each of the input parameters. In the dispersion part of the model, an improved line source model has been developed, implemented and tested against a reference solution. It provides improvement in accuracy over previous formulas of line source Gaussian plume model, without being too demanding in terms of computational resources. In the case study presented here, the biggest errors were associated with the ends of line source sections; these errors will be canceled by adjacent sections of line sources during the simulation of a road network. In cases where the wind is parallel to the source line, the use of the combination discretized source and analytical line source formulas minimizes remarkably the error. Because this combination is applied only for a small number of wind directions, it should not excessively increase the calculation time.

Keywords: air pollution, dispersion, emissions, line sources, road traffic, urban transport

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Authors: Saima Iftikhar Rida Shabbir, Zeeshan Hassan

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Water shortage, energy crisis and natural misfortunes are the glitches which reduce the efficacy of agricultural ecosystems especially in Pakistan where these are more frequent besides being intense. Accordingly, the agricultural water resources, food security and country’s economy are at risk. To address this, we have used Geospatial techniques incorporating ASTER Global DEM, Geological map, rainfall data, discharge data, Landsat 5 image of Swat valley in order to assess the viability of selected sites. The sites have been studied via GIS tools, Hydrological investigation and multiparametric analysis for their potentialities of collecting and securing the rain water; regulating floods by storing the surplus water bulks by check dams and developing them for power generation. Our results showed that Siat1-1 was very useful for low-cost dam with main objective of as Debris dam; Site-2 and Site 3 were check dams sites having adequate storing reservoir so as to arrest the inconsistent flow accompanied by catering the sedimentation effects and the debris flows; Site 4 had a huge reservoir capacity but it entails enormous edifice cost over very great flood plain. Thus, there is necessity of active Hydrological developments to estimate the flooded area using advanced and multifarious GIS and remote sensing approaches so that the sites could be developed for harnessing those sites for agricultural and energy drives.

Keywords: site suitability, check dams, SHP, terrain analysis, volume estimation

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Authors: Bruno de Almeida Vilela, Heinz Ahn, Ana Lúcia Miranda Lopes, Marcelo Azevedo Costa

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Benchmarking public utilities such as transmission system operators (TSOs) is one of the main strategies employed by regulators in order to fix monopolistic companies’ revenues. Since 2007 the Brazilian regulator has been utilizing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to benchmark TSOs. Despite the application of DEA to improve the transmission sector’s efficiency, some problems can be pointed out, such as the high price of electricity in Brazil; the limitation of the benchmarking only to operational expenses (OPEX); the absence of variables that represent the outcomes of the transmission service; and the presence of extremely low and high efficiencies. As an alternative to the current concept of benchmarking the Brazilian regulator uses, we propose a goal-oriented approach. Our proposal supports input/output selection by taking traditional organizational goals and measures as a basis for the selection of factors for benchmarking purposes. As the main advantage, it resolves the classical DEA problems of input/output selection, undesirable and dual-role factors. We also provide a demonstration of our goal-oriented concept regarding service quality. As a result, most TSOs’ efficiencies in Brazil might improve when considering quality as important in their efficiency estimation.

Keywords: decision making, goal-oriented benchmarking, input/output factor determination, TSO regulation

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Authors: Spandan Sahu, Amiya Kumar Pati, Kishanjit Kumar Khatua

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River is the main source of water. It is a form of natural open channel which gives rise to many complex phenomenon of sciences that needs to be tackled such as the critical flow conditions, boundary shear stress and depth averaged velocity. The development of society more or less solely depends upon the flow of rivers. The rivers are major sources of many sediments and specific ingredients which are much essential for human beings. During floods, part of a river is carried by the simple main channel and rest is carried by flood plains. For such compound asymmetric channels, the flow structure becomes complicated due to momentum exchange between main channel and adjoining flood plains. Distribution of boundary shear in subsections provides us with the concept of momentum transfer between the interface of main channel and the flood plains. Experimentally, to get better data with accurate results are very complex because of the complexity of the problem. Hence, Conveyance Estimation System (CES) software has been used to tackle the complex processes to determine the shear stresses at different sections of an open channel having asymmetric flood plains on both sides of the main channel and the results are compared with the symmetric flood plains for various geometrical shapes and flow conditions. Error analysis is also performed to know the degree of accuracy of the model implemented.

Keywords: depth average velocity, non prismatic compound channel, relative flow depth , velocity distribution

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Authors: Loubna Hamami, Bouchaib Nassereddine

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Due to the evolution of technologies, the need to observe and manage hostile environments, and reduction in size, wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are becoming essential and implicated in the most fields of life. WSNs enable us to change the style of living, working and interacting with the physical environment. The agricultural sector is one of such sectors where WSNs are successfully used to get various benefits. For successful agricultural production, the irrigation system is one of the most important factors, and it plays a tactical role in the process of agriculture domain. However, it is considered as the largest consumer of freshwater. Besides, the scarcity of water, the drought, the waste of the limited available water resources are among the critical issues that touch the almost sectors, notably agricultural services. These facts are leading all governments around the world to rethink about saving water and reducing the volume of water used; this requires the development of irrigation practices in order to have a complete and independent system that is more efficient in the management of irrigation. Consequently, the selection of WSNs in irrigation system has been a benefit for developing the agriculture sector. In this work, we propose a prototype for a complete and intelligent irrigation system based on wireless sensor networks and we present and discuss the design of this prototype. This latter aims at saving water, energy and time. The proposed prototype controls water system for irrigation by monitoring the soil temperature, soil moisture and weather conditions for estimation of water requirements of each plant.

Keywords: precision irrigation, sensor, wireless sensor networks, water resources

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Authors: Kashif Nesar Rather, Mantu Kumar Mahalik

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The discourse surrounding climate change has gained considerable traction, with a discernible emphasis on its nuanced and consequential impact on gender inequality. Concurrently, escalating global tensions are contributing to heightened uncertainty, potentially exerting influence on gender disparities. Within this framework, this study attempts to empirically investigate the implications of climate change and world uncertainty on the gender inequality for a balanced panel of 100 economies between 1995 to 2021. The estimated models also control for the effects of globalisation, economic growth, and education expenditure. The panel cointegration tests establish a significant long-run relationship between the variables of the study. Furthermore, the PMG-ARDL (Panel mean group-Autoregressive distributed lag model) estimation technique confirms that both climate change and world uncertainty perpetuate the global gender inequalities. Additionally, the results establish that globalisation, economic growth, and education expenditure exert a mitigating influence on gender inequality, signifying their role in diminishing gender disparities. These findings are further confirmed by the FGLS (Feasible Generalized Least Squares) and DKSE (Driscoll-Kraay Standard Errors) regression methods. Potential policy implications for mitigating the detrimental gender ramifications stemming from climate change and rising world uncertainties are also discussed.

Keywords: gender inequality, world uncertainty, climate change, globalisation., ecological footprint

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Authors: M. Hussaina, K. Mahboobb, S. Z. Ilyasa, S. Shaheena

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Plume dispersion modeling is a computational procedure to establish a relationship between emissions, meteorology, atmospheric concentrations, deposition and other factors. The emission characteristics (stack height, stack diameter, release velocity, heat contents, chemical and physical properties of the gases/particle released etc.), terrain (surface roughness, local topography, nearby buildings) and meteorology (wind speed, stability, mixing height, etc.) are required for the modeling of the plume dispersion and estimation of ground and air concentration. During the early phase of Fukushima accident, plume dispersion modeling and decisions were taken for the implementation of protective measures. A difference in estimated results and decisions made by different countries for taking protective actions created a concern in local and international community regarding the exact identification of the safe zone. The current study is focused to highlight the importance of accurate and exact weather data availability, scientific approach for decision making for taking urgent protective actions, compatible and harmonized approach for plume dispersion modeling during a nuclear emergency. As a case study, the influence of meteorological data on plume dispersion modeling and decision-making process has been performed.

Keywords: decision making process, radiation doses, nuclear emergency, meteorological implications

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Authors: Golayeh Yousefi, Mehdi Homaee, Ali Akbar Norouzi

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Ongoing monitoring of soil contamination by heavy metals is critical for ecosystem stability and environmental protection, and food security. The conventional methods of determining these soil contaminants are time-consuming and costly. Spectroscopy in the visible near-infrared (VNIR) - short wave infrared (SWIR) region is a rapid, non-destructive, noninvasive, and cost-effective method for assessment of soil heavy metals concentration by studying the spectral properties of soil constituents. The aim of this study is to derive spectral bands and important ranges that are sensitive to heavy metals and can be used to estimate the concentration of these soil contaminants. In other words, the change in the spectral properties of spectrally active constituents of soil can lead to the accurate identification and estimation of the concentration of these compounds in soil. For this purpose, 325 soil samples were collected, and their spectral reflectance curves were evaluated at a range of 350-2500 nm. After spectral preprocessing operations, the partial least-squares regression (PLSR) model was fitted on spectral data to predict the concentration of Cu and Ni. Based on the results, the spectral range of Cu- sensitive spectra were 480, 580-610, 1370, 1425, 1850, 1920, 2145, and 2200 nm, and Ni-sensitive ranges were 543, 655, 761, 1003, 1271, 1415, 1903, 2199 nm. Finally, the results of this study indicated that the spectral data contains a lot of information that can be applied to identify the soil properties, such as the concentration of heavy metals, with more detail.

Keywords: heavy metals, spectroscopy, spectral bands, PLS regression

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Authors: Noor Aliza Binti Ahmad, Azra Munirah Mat Daud, Sabariah Musa, Mohamad Azhar MK

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Flooding is a common natural disaster in Malaysia triggered by heavy rainfall. Urbanization that increases the construction of paved areas, subsequently raise surface runoff and reduce time of concentration. It increases flood magnitude and so that leads to greater flood problems as what has happened at Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM) area in December 2006 and earlier 2007. Tasik Kemajuan and Tasik Inovasi were constructed as recreation ponds and have also functioned as flood ponds. Unfortunately, the flood problem still occurs persistently. Thus, the effectiveness of Tasik Kemajuan and Tasik Inovasi in reducing the flood problems need to be investigated and the causes of flood events at UTHM Campus need to be evaluated. The results from this study show that the conditions of Tasik Kemajuan and Tasik Inovasi are effective in reducing the flood water levels. It also can be concluded that increasing water level in both lakes in UTHM Campus are significantly influenced by presence of the grass and rubbish. During dry condition, the flow rates with three different days are 59.38m3/s, 60.71m3/s and 59.08m3/s and while for wet condition in two different days are 89.59 m3/s and 86.61m3/s. In conclusion, this system should be improved to prevent future flooding either widened or reduced drainage floor, and also perform maintenance on the plants that live around the lake.

Keywords: drainage system, flood detention, lakes, storm water

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Authors: Mohammad Bqoor, Mohammad Hamdan, Isam Janajreh, Sufian Abedrabbo

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This extensive theoretical study on a novel Ionized Gas Thermoelectric Generator (IG-TEG) system has shown the ability of continuous energy extracting from the thermal energy of ambient air around standard room temperature and even below. This system does not need a temperature gradient in order to work, unlike the other TEGs that use the Seebeck effect, and therefore this new system can be utilized in sustainable energy systems, as well as in green cooling solutions, by extracting energy instead of wasting energy in compressing the gas for cooling. This novel system was designed based on Static Ratchet Potential (SRP), which is known as a spatially asymmetric electric potential produced by an array of positive and negative electrodes. The ratchet potential produces an electrical current from the random Brownian Motion of charged particles that are driven by thermal energy. The key parameter of the system is particle transportation, and it was studied under the condition of flashing ratchet potentials utilizing several methods and examined experimentally, ensuring its functionality. In this study, a different approach is pursued to estimate particle transportation by evaluating the charged particle distribution and applying the other conditions of the SRP, and showing continued energy harvesting potency from the particles’ transportation. Ultimately, power levels of 10 Watt proved to be achievable from a 1 m long system tube of 10 cm radius.

Keywords: thermoelectric generator, ratchet potential, Brownian ratchet, energy harvesting, sustainable energy, green technology

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Authors: Ajai Singh

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Simulation of hydrological processes at the watershed outlet through modelling approach is essential for proper planning and implementation of appropriate soil conservation measures in Damodar Barakar catchment, Hazaribagh, India where soil erosion is a dominant problem. This study quantifies the parametric uncertainty involved in simulation of stream flow using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a watershed scale model and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN), an artificial neural network model. Both the models were calibrated and validated based on measured stream flow and quantification of the uncertainty in SWAT model output was assessed using ‘‘Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm’’ (SUFI-2). Though both the model predicted satisfactorily, but RBNN model performed better than SWAT with R2 and NSE values of 0.92 and 0.92 during training, and 0.71 and 0.70 during validation period, respectively. Comparison of the results of the two models also indicates a wider prediction interval for the results of the SWAT model. The values of P-factor related to each model shows that the percentage of observed stream flow values bracketed by the 95PPU in the RBNN model as 91% is higher than the P-factor in SWAT as 87%. In other words the RBNN model estimates the stream flow values more accurately and with less uncertainty. It could be stated that RBNN model based on simple input could be used for estimation of monthly stream flow, missing data, and testing the accuracy and performance of other models.

Keywords: SWAT, RBNN, SUFI 2, bootstrap technique, stream flow, simulation

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Authors: Haggay Etkes

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This study provides evidence for the impact of monthly interviews conducted for the Israeli Labor Force Surveys (LFSs) on estimated flows between labor force (LF) statuses and on coefficients in fixed-effects estimations. The study uses the natural experiment of parallel interviews for the quarterly and the monthly LFSs in Israel in 2011 for demonstrating that the Labor Force Participation (LFP) rate of Jewish persons who participated in the monthly LFS increased between interviews, while in the quarterly LFS it decreased. Interestingly, the estimated impact on the LFP rate of self-reporting individuals is 2.6–3.5 percentage points while the impact on the LFP rate of individuals whose data was reported by another member of their household (a proxy), is lower and statistically insignificant. The relative increase of the LFP rate in the monthly survey is a result of a lower rate of exit from the LF and a somewhat higher rate of entry into the LF relative to these flows in the quarterly survey. These differing flows have a bearing on labor search models as the monthly survey portrays a labor market with less friction and a “steady state” LFP rate that is 5.9 percentage points higher than the quarterly survey. The study also demonstrates that monthly interviews affect a specific group (45–64 year-olds); thus the sign of coefficient of age as an explanatory variable in fixed-effects regressions on LFP is negative in the monthly survey and positive in the quarterly survey.

Keywords: measurement error, surveys, search, LFSs

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Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

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Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to preventing deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network.

Keywords: accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, k-mean, road safety

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Authors: Feng Yang

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Machine learning (ML), especially deep learning (DL), has been extensively applied to many applications in recently years and gained great success in solving different problems, including scientific problems. However, conventional ML/DL methodologies are purely data-driven which have the limitations, such as need of ample amount of labelled training data, lack of consistency to physical principles, and lack of generalizability to new problems/domains. Recently, there is a growing consensus that ML models need to further take advantage of prior knowledge to deal with these limitations. Physics-informed machine learning, aiming at integration of physics/domain knowledge into ML, has been recognized as an emerging area of research, especially in the recent 2 to 3 years. In this work, physics-informed ML, specifically physics-informed neural network (NN), is employed and implemented to estimate the displacements at x, y, z directions in a solid mechanics problem that is controlled by equilibrium equations with boundary conditions. By incorporating the physics (i.e. the equilibrium equations) into the learning process of NN, it is showed that the NN can be trained very efficiently with a small set of labelled training data. Experiments with different settings of the NN model and the amount of labelled training data were conducted, and the results show that very high accuracy can be achieved in fulfilling the equilibrium equations as well as in predicting the displacements, e.g. in setting the overall displacement of 0.1, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.09 × 10−4 was achieved.

Keywords: deep learning, neural network, physics-informed machine learning, solid mechanics

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Authors: Lydia Tan, Philippe Lemey, Lieselot Houspie, Marco Viveen, Darren Martin, Frank Coenjaerts

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Introduction: Human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) is the leading cause of severe respiratory tract infections in infants under the age of two. Genomic substitutions and related evolutionary dynamics of hRSV are of great influence on virus transmission behavior. The evolutionary patterns formed are due to a precarious interplay between the host immune response and RSV, thereby selecting the most viable and less immunogenic strains. Studying genomic profiles can teach us which genes and consequent proteins play an important role in RSV survival and transmission dynamics. Study design: In this study, genetic diversity and evolutionary rate analysis were conducted on 36 RSV subgroup B whole genome sequences and 37 subgroup A genome sequences. Clinical RSV isolates were obtained from nasopharyngeal aspirates and swabs of children between 2 weeks and 5 years old of age. These strains, collected during epidemic seasons from 2001 to 2011 in the Netherlands and Belgium by either conventional or 454-sequencing. Sequences were analyzed for genetic diversity, recombination events, synonymous/non-synonymous substitution ratios, epistasis, and translational consequences of mutations were mapped to known 3D protein structures. We used Bayesian statistical inference to estimate the rate of RSV genome evolution and the rate of variability across the genome. Results: The A and B profiles were described in detail and compared to each other. Overall, the majority of the whole RSV genome is highly conserved among all strains. The attachment protein G was the most variable protein and its gene had, similar to the non-coding regions in RSV, more elevated (two-fold) substitution rates than other genes. In addition, the G gene has been identified as the major target for diversifying selection. Overall, less gene and protein variability was found within RSV-B compared to RSV-A and most protein variation between the subgroups was found in the F, G, SH and M2-2 proteins. For the F protein mutations and correlated amino acid changes are largely located in the F2 ligand-binding domain. The small hydrophobic phosphoprotein and nucleoprotein are the most conserved proteins. The evolutionary rates were similar in both subgroups (A: 6.47E-04, B: 7.76E-04 substitution/site/yr), but estimates of the time to the most recent common ancestor were much lower for RSV-B (B: 19, A: 46.8 yrs), indicating that there is more turnover in this subgroup. Conclusion: This study provides a detailed description of whole RSV genome mutations, the effect on translation products and the first estimate of the RSV genome evolution tempo. The immunogenic G protein seems to require high substitution rates in order to select less immunogenic strains and other conserved proteins are most likely essential to preserve RSV viability. The resulting G gene variability makes its protein a less interesting target for RSV intervention methods. The more conserved RSV F protein with less antigenic epitope shedding is, therefore, more suitable for developing therapeutic strategies or vaccines.

Keywords: drug target selection, epidemiology, respiratory syncytial virus, RSV

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Authors: Dinebari Akpee, Friday Aabe Gaage, Florence Fred Nwaigwu

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Natural disasters like flood affect many parts of the world including developing countries like Nigeria. As a result, many human lives are lost, properties damaged and so much money is lost in infrastructure damages. These hazards and losses can be mitigated and reduced by providing reliable spatial information to the generality of the people through about flood risks through flood inundation maps. Flood inundation maps are very crucial for emergency action plans, urban planning, ecological studies and insurance rates. Nigeria experience her worst flood in her entire history this year. Many cities were submerged and completely under water due to torrential rainfall. Poor city planning, lack of effective development control among others contributes to the problem too. Geographic information system (GIS) can be used to visualize the extent of flooding, analyze flood maps to produce flood damaged estimation maps and flood risk maps. In this research, the under listed steps were taken in preparation of flood risk maps for the study area: (1) Digitization of topographic data and preparation of digital elevation model using ArcGIS (2) Flood simulation using hydraulic model and integration and (3) Integration of the first two steps to produce flood risk maps. The results shows that GIS can play crucial role in Flood disaster control and mitigation.

Keywords: flood disaster, risk maps, geographic information system, hazards

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Authors: Meziane Rachid, Boufala Seddik, Hamzi Amar, Amara Mohamed

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Today’s energy industry seeks maximum benefit with maximum reliability. In order to achieve this goal, design engineers depend on reliability optimization techniques. This work uses a harmony search algorithm (HS) meta-heuristic optimization method to solve the problem of wind-Solar-Gas power systems design optimization. We consider the case where redundant electrical components are chosen to achieve a desirable level of reliability. The electrical power components of the system are characterized by their cost, capacity and reliability. The reliability is considered in this work as the ability to satisfy the consumer demand which is represented as a piecewise cumulative load curve. This definition of the reliability index is widely used for power systems. The proposed meta-heuristic seeks for the optimal design of series-parallel power systems in which a multiple choice of wind generators, transformers and lines are allowed from a list of product available in the market. Our approach has the advantage to allow electrical power components with different parameters to be allocated in electrical power systems. To allow fast reliability estimation, a universal moment generating function (UMGF) method is applied. A computer program has been developed to implement the UMGF and the HS algorithm. An illustrative example is presented.

Keywords: reliability optimization, harmony search optimization (HSA), universal generating function (UMGF)

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Authors: Constantin Ott, Dietmar Drummer

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The direct encapsulation of electronic components is an effective way of protecting components against external influences. In addition to achieving a sufficient protective effect, there are two other big challenges for satisfying the increasing demand for encapsulated circuit boards. The encapsulation process should be both suitable for mass production and offer a low component load. Injection molding is a method with good suitability for large series production but also with typically high component stress. In this article, two aims were pursued: first, the development of a calculation model that allows an estimation of the occurring forces based on process variables and material parameters. Second, the evaluation of a new approach for stress reduction by means of thermoplastic foam injection molding. For this purpose, simulation-based process data was generated with the Moldflow simulation tool. Based on this, component stresses were calculated with the calculation model. At the same time, this paper provided a model for estimating the forces occurring during overmolding and derived a solution method for reducing these forces. The suitability of this approach was clearly demonstrated and a significant reduction in shear forces during overmolding was achieved. It was possible to demonstrate a process development that makes it possible to meet the two main requirements of direct encapsulation in addition to a high protective effect.

Keywords: encapsulation, stress reduction, foam-injection-molding, simulation

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Authors: Vani Chintapally

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The expansion of modest and minimized Global Positioning System (GPS) beneficiaries has prompted most Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) frameworks today depending solely on satellite-based finding frameworks, as GPS is the most stable usage of these. This paper shows the attributes of a proposed framework for following and dissecting open transport in a run of the mill medium-sized city and complexities the qualities of such a framework to those of broadly useful AVL frameworks. Particular properties of the courses broke down by the AVL framework utilized for the examination of open transport in our study incorporate cyclic vehicle courses, the requirement for particular execution reports, and so forth. This paper particularly manages vehicle movement forecasts and the estimation of station landing time, combined with consequently produced reports on timetable conformance and other execution measures. Another side of the watched issue is proficient exchange of information from the vehicles to the control focus. The pervasiveness of GSM bundle information exchange advancements combined with decreased information exchange expenses have brought on today's AVL frameworks to depend predominantly on parcel information exchange administrations from portable administrators as the correspondences channel in the middle of vehicles and the control focus. This methodology brings numerous security issues up in this conceivably touchy application field.

Keywords: automatic vehicle location (AVL), expectation of landing times, AVL security, data administrations, wise transport frameworks (ITS), guide coordinating

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Authors: Andreas Gohs, Reinhold Kosfeld

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This study should be of interest for practitioners who want to predict precisely the sales numbers of vehicles equipped with an innovative propulsion technology as well as for researchers interested in applied (regional) time series analysis. The study is based on the numbers of new registrations of pure electric and hybrid cars. Methods of time series analysis like ARIMA are compared with the Bass Diffusion-model concerning their forecasting performances for new registrations in Germany at the national and federal state levels. Especially it is investigated if the additional information content from regional data increases the forecasting accuracy for the national level by adding predictions for the federal states. Results of parameters of the Bass Diffusion Model estimated for Germany and its sixteen federal states are reported. While the focus of this research is on the German market, estimation results are also provided for selected European and other countries. Concerning Bass-parameters and forecasting performances, we get very different results for Germany's federal states and the member states of the European Union. This corresponds to differences across the EU-member states in the adoption process of this innovative technology. Concerning the German market, the adoption is rather proceeded in southern Germany and stays behind in Eastern Germany except for Berlin.

Keywords: bass diffusion model, electric vehicles, forecasting performance, market diffusion

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Authors: Abdullahi Jibrin, Aishetu Abdulkadir

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The development of allometric models is crucial to accurate forest biomass/carbon stock assessment. The aim of this study was to develop a set of biomass prediction models that will enable the determination of total tree aboveground biomass for savannah woodland area in Niger State, Nigeria. Based on the data collected through biometric measurements of 1816 trees and destructive sampling of 36 trees, five species specific and one site specific models were developed. The sample size was distributed equally between the five most dominant species in the study site (Vitellaria paradoxa, Irvingia gabonensis, Parkia biglobosa, Anogeissus leiocarpus, Pterocarpus erinaceous). Firstly, the equations were developed for five individual species. Secondly these five species were mixed and were used to develop an allometric equation of mixed species. Overall, there was a strong positive relationship between total tree biomass and the stem diameter. The coefficient of determination (R2 values) ranging from 0.93 to 0.99 P < 0.001 were realised for the models; with considerable low standard error of the estimates (SEE) which confirms that the total tree above ground biomass has a significant relationship with the dbh. The F-test value for the biomass prediction models were also significant at p < 0.001 which indicates that the biomass prediction models are valid. This study recommends that for improved biomass estimates in the study site, the site specific biomass models should preferably be used instead of using generic models.

Keywords: allometriy, biomass, carbon stock , model, regression equation, woodland, inventory

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Authors: Xiuguo Zhao, He Li, Alireza Yazdani, Xiaoning Zheng, Xinxi Xu

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Wound infected poses a serious threat to the surgery on the patient during the process of surgery. Understanding the bacteria-carrying particles (BCPs) transportation and deposition in the open surgical wound model play essential role in protecting wound against being infected. Therefore BCPs transportation and deposition in the surgical wound model were investigated using force-coupling method (FCM) based computational fluid dynamics. The BCPs deposition in the wound was strongly associated with BCPs diameter and concentration. The results showed that the rise on the BCPs deposition was increasing not only with the increase of BCPs diameters but also with the increase of the BCPs concentration. BCPs deposition morphology was impacted by the combination of size distribution, airflow patterns and model geometry. The deposition morphology exhibited the characteristic with BCPs deposition on the sidewall in wound model and no BCPs deposition on the bottom of the wound model mainly because the airflow movement in one direction from up to down and then side created by laminar system constructing airflow patterns and then made BCPs hard deposit in the bottom of the wound model due to wound geometry limit. It was also observed that inertial impact becomes a main mechanism of the BCPs deposition. This work may contribute to next study in BCPs deposition limit, as well as wound infected estimation in surgical-site infections.

Keywords: BCPs deposition, computational fluid dynamics, force-coupling method (FCM), numerical simulation, open surgical wound model

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Authors: Yosra Ben Mhamed

Abstract:

Most previous research that investigates the importance of earnings volatility for a firm’s value has focused on the effects of earnings volatility on the cost of capital. Many study illustrate that earnings volatility can reduce the firm’s value by enhancing the cost of capital. However, a few recent studies directly examine the relation between earnings volatility and subsequent earnings levels. In our study, we further explore the role of volatility in forecasting. Our study makes two primary contributions to the literature. First, taking into account the level of current firm’s performance, we provide causal theory to the link between volatility and earnings predictability. Nevertheless, previous studies testing the linearity of this relationship have not mentioned any underlying theory. Secondly, our study contributes to the vast body of fundamental analysis research that identifies a set of variables that improve valuation, by showing that earnings volatility affects the estimation of future earnings. Projections of earnings are used by valuation research and practice to derive estimates of firm value. Since we want to examine the impact of volatility on earnings predictability, we sort the sample into three portfolios according to the level of their earnings volatility in ascending order. For each quintile, we present the predictability coefficient. In a second test, each of these portfolios is, then, sorted into three further quintiles based on their level of current earnings. These yield nine quintiles. So we can observe whether volatility strongly predicts decreases on earnings predictability only for highest quintile of earnings. In general, we find that earnings volatility has an inverse relationship with earnings predictability. Our results also show that the sensibility of earnings predictability to ex-ante volatility is more pronounced among profitability firms. The findings are most consistent with overinvestment and persistence explanations.

Keywords: earnings volatility, earnings predictability, earnings persistence, current profitability

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Authors: Faisal Alsaaq

Abstract:

Hydrographic surveys have traditionally relied on the availability of tide information for the reduction of sounding observations to a common datum. In most cases, tide information is obtained from tide gauge observations and/or tide predictions over space and time using local, regional or global tide models. While the latter often provides a rather crude approximation, the former relies on tide gauge stations that are spatially restricted, and often have sparse and limited distribution. A more recent method that is increasingly being used is Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positioning which can be utilised to monitor height variations of a vessel or buoy, thus providing information on sea level variations during the time of a hydrographic survey. However, GNSS heights obtained under the dynamic environment of a survey vessel are affected by “non-tidal” processes such as wave activity and the attitude of the vessel (roll, pitch, heave and dynamic draft). This research seeks to examine techniques that separate the tide signal from other non-tidal signals that may be contained in GNSS heights. This requires an investigation of the processes involved and their temporal, spectral and stochastic properties in order to apply suitable recovery techniques of tide information. In addition, different post-mission and near real-time GNSS positioning techniques will be investigated with focus on estimation of height at ocean. Furthermore, the study will investigate the possibility to transfer the chart datums at the location of tide gauges.

Keywords: hydrography, GNSS, datum, tide gauge

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Authors: Suchitra Sivakumar, Hajime Shingyouchi, Toshinori Okajima, Kyohei Yamaguchi, Jin Kusaka

Abstract:

The progressing need for powertrain electrification calls for more accurate and reliable simulation models. A battery pack serves as the most vital component for energy storage in an electrified powertrain. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) do not behave the same way as they age, and there are several environmental factors that account for the degradation of the battery on a system level. Therefore, in this work, a battery model was proposed to study the state of charge (SOC) variation and the internal dynamic changes that contribute to aging and performance degradation in HEV batteries. An equivalent circuit battery model (ECM) is built using MATLAB Simulink to investigate the output characteristics of the lithium-ion battery. The ECM comprises of circuit elements like a voltage source, a series resistor and a parallel RC network connected in series. A parameter estimation study is conducted on the ECM to study the dependencies of the circuit elements with the state of charge (SOC) and the terminal voltage of the battery. The battery model is extended to simulate the temperature dependence of the individual battery cell and the battery pack with the environment. The temperature dependence model accounts for the heat loss due to internal resistance build up in the battery pack during charging, discharging, and due to atmospheric temperature. The model was validated for a lithium-ion battery pack with an independent drive cycle showing a voltage accuracy of 4% and SOC accuracy of about 2%.

Keywords: battery model, hybrid electric vehicle, lithium-ion battery, thermal model

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Authors: Ahmed Khalil

Abstract:

Increased energy demands around the world have led to the raise in power production which has resulted with more greenhouse gas emissions through fossil sources. These fossil sources and emissions cause deterioration in echo-system. Therefore, renewable energy sources come to the scene as echo-friendly and clean energy sourcing, whereas the electrical devices and energy needs decrease in the timeline. Each of these renewable energy sources contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gases and mitigate environmental deterioration. However, there are also some general and source-specific challenges, which influence the choice of the investors. The most prominent general challenge that effects end-users’ comfort and reliability is usually determined as the intermittence which derives from the diversions of source conditions, due to nature dynamics and uncontrolled periodic changes. Research and development professionals strive to mitigate intermittence challenge through material improvement for each renewable source whereas hybrid source mix stand as a solution. This solution prevails well, when single renewable technologies are upgraded further. On the other hand, integration of energy efficient devices and systems, raise the affirmative effect of such solution in means of less energy requirement in sustainability composition or scenario. This paper provides a glimpse on the advantages of composing renewable source mix versus single usage, with contribution of sampled e-efficient systems and devices. Accordingly it demonstrates the extended benefits, through planning and predictive estimation stages of Ahmadi Town Projects in Kuwait.

Keywords: e-efficient systems, hybrid source, intermittence challenge, renewable energy

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Authors: Li Chin Law, Epaminondas Mastorakos, Mohd Roslee Othman, Antonis Trakakis

Abstract:

The paper introduces an alternative concept of carbon capture for shipping by using pre-combustion carbon capture technology (Pre-CCS), which was proven to be less energy intensive than post-combustion carbon capture from the engine exhaust. Energy assessment on amine-based post-combustion CCS on LNG-fuelled ships showed that the energy efficiency of CCS ships reduced from 48% to 36.6%. Then, an energy assessment was carried out to compare the power and heat requirements of the most used hydrogen production methods and carbon capture technologies. Steam methane reformer (SMR) was found to be 20% more energy efficient and achieved a higher methane conversion than auto thermal reaction and methane decomposition. Next, pressure swing adsorber (PSA) has shown a lower energy requirement than membrane separation, cryogenic separation, and amine absorption in pre-combustion carbon capture. Hence, an integrated system combining SMR and PSA (SMR-PSA) with waste heat integration (WHR) was proposed. This optimized SMR-based integrated system has achieved 65% of CO₂ reduction with less than 7-percentage point of energy penalty (41.7% of energy efficiency). Further integration of post-combustion CCS with the SMR-PSA integrated system improved carbon capture rate to 86.3% with 9-percentage points of energy penalty (39% energy efficiency). The proposed system was shown to be able to meet the carbon reduction targets set by International Maritime Organization (IMO) with certain energy penalties.

Keywords: shipping, decarbonisation, alternative fuels, low carbon, hydrogen, carbon capture

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