Search results for: scenario analysis

Authors: Michael Mertel, Lars Friedrich, Kai-Ingo Voigt

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Based on principle-agent theory, an information asymmetry exists in the traditional donation process. Consumers cannot comprehend whether nonprofit organizations (NPOs) use raised funds according to the designated cause after the transaction took place (hidden action). Therefore, charity organizations have tried to appear transparent and gain trust by using the same marketing instruments for decades (e.g., releasing project success reports). However, none of these measures can guarantee consumers that charities will use their donations for the purpose. With awareness of misuse of donations rising due to the Ukraine conflict (e.g., funding crime), consumers are increasingly concerned about the destination of their charitable purposes. Therefore, innovative charities like the Human Rights Foundation have started to offer donations via blockchain. Blockchain technology has the potential to establish profound trust and transparency in the donation process: Consumers can publicly track the progress of their donation at any time after deciding to donate. This ensures that the charity is not using donations against its original intent. Hence, the aim is to investigate the effect of blockchain-enabled transactions on the willingness to donate. Sample and Design: To investigate consumers' behavior, we use a scenario-based experiment. After removing participants (e.g., due to failed attention checks), 3192 potential donors participated (47.9% female, 62.4% bachelor or above). Procedure: We randomly assigned the participants to one of two scenarios. In all conditions, the participants read a scenario about a fictive charity organization called "Helper NPO." Afterward, the participants answered questions regarding their perception of the charity. Manipulation: The first scenario (n = 1405) represents a typical donation process, where consumers donate money without any option to track and trace. The second scenario (n = 1787) represents a donation process via blockchain, where consumers can track and trace their donations respectively. Using t-statistics, the findings demonstrate a positive effect of donating via blockchain on participants’ willingness to donate (mean difference = 0.667, p < .001, Cohen’s d effect size = 0.482). A mediation analysis shows significant effects for the mediation of transparency (Estimate = 0.199, p < .001), trust (Estimate = 0.144, p < .001), and transparency and trust (Estimate = 0.158, p < .001). The total effect of blockchain usage on participants’ willingness to donate (Estimate = 0.690, p < .001) consists of the direct effect (Estimate = 0.189, p < .001) and the indirect effects of transparency and trust (Estimate = 0.501, p < .001). Furthermore, consumers' affinity for technology moderates the direct effect of blockchain usage on participants' willingness to donate (Estimate = 0.150, p < .001). Donating via blockchain is a promising way for charities to engage consumers for several reasons: (1) Charities can emphasize trust and transparency in their advertising campaigns. (2) Established charities can target new customer segments by specifically engaging technology-affine consumers in the future. (3) Charities can raise international funds without previous barriers (e.g., setting up bank accounts). Nevertheless, increased transparency can also backfire (e.g., disclosure of costs). Such cases require further research.

Keywords: blockchain, social sector, transparency, trust

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Authors: Vishaka Agarwal

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Fashion is a dynamic entity. With globalisation, fashion is being retailed out to every corner of the world, and people are becoming fashion aware and adapting to the latest trends and look. In this scenario, the role of fashion in providing social change in society is strong. Every product that we use has a design element in it, and consumers prefer to buy those products. The aim of the paper is to look at the ways in which social change can be brought into society through ethical designing by designers taking into consideration the IPR issues. Review of research done by earlier researchers in studying the work done by designers to achieve social change in the society and also discussions with designers to understand the future plans looking at changing world scenario would be done. The paper concludes that fashion has a dynamic role to play in achieving social change in society, and designers are virtually controlling what people buy, wear, and consume globally. This paper would be useful to the social planners and designers in planning the future of society.

Keywords: fashion designers, ethics, intellectual property right, society

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Authors: Fabiola Xavier Leal, Lara Campanharo, Sueli Aparecida Rodrigues Lucas

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The phenomenon of judicialization in health policy brings with it a great deal of problematization, but in general, it means that some issues that were previously solved by traditional political bodies are being decided by the Judiciary bodies. It is, therefore, a controversial topic that has generated many reflections both in the academic and political fields, considering that not only a dispute of public funds is at stake, but also the debate on access to social rights provided for in the Brazilian Federal Constitution of 1988 and in the various public policies, such as healthcare. With regard to the phenomenon in the Mental Health Policy focusing on people who use drugs, the disputes that permeate this scenario are evident: moral, cultural, sanitary, economic, psychological aspects. There are also the individual and collective dimensions of suffering. And in this process, we all question: What is the role of the Brazilian State in this matter? In this context, another question that needs to be answered is the amount spent on this procedure in the state of Espírito Santo (ES), Brazil (in the last 04 years, around R$121,978,591.44 were paid only for compulsory hospitalization of individuals) in the field in question, which is the financing of the services of the Psychosocial Care Network (RAPS). Therefore, this article aims to problematize the phenomenon of judicialization in Mental Health Policy through the compulsory hospitalization of people who use drugs in Espírito Santo (ES). We proposed a study that sought to understand how this has been occurring and making an impact on the provision of RAPS services in the Espírito Santo scenario. Therefore, the general objective of this study is to analyze the expenses with compulsory hospitalizations for drug use carried out by the State Health Department (SESA) between 2014 and 2019, in which we will seek to identify its destination and the impact of these actions on public health policy. For the purposes of this article, we will present the preliminary data of this study, such as the amount spent by the state and the receiving institutions. For data collection, the following data sources were used: documents available publicly on the Transparency Portal (payments made per year, institutions that received, subjects hospitalized, period and the amount of the daily rates paid); as well as the processes generated by SESA through its own system - ONBASE. For qualitative analysis, content analysis was used; and for quantitative analysis, descriptive statistics was used. Thus, we seek to problematize the issue of judicialization for compulsory hospitalizations, considering the current situation in which this resource has been widely requested to legitimize the war on drugs. This scenario highlights the moral-legal discourse, pointing out strategies through the control of bodies and through faith as an alternative.

Keywords: compulsory hospitalization, drugs, judicialization, mental health

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Authors: Arun Das

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Indian agriculture is acclaimed from the dates of Indus civilization (2500 BC). Since this time until the day, there were tremendous expansion in terms of space and technology has taken place. Abrupt growth in technology took place past one and half century. Consequent to this development, the land which was brought under agriculture in the initial stages of introducing agriculture for the first time, that land is not possessing the same physical condition. Either it has lost the productive capacity or modified into semi agriculture land. On the grounds of its capacity and interwoven characteristics seven phases of agriculture scenario has been identified. Most of the land is on the march of desertification. Identifying the stages and the phase of the agriculture scenario is most relevant from the point of view of food security at regional, national and at global level. Secondly decisive measure can put back the degenerating environmental condition into arrest. GIS and Remote sensing applications have been used to identify the phases of agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture phases, desertification, deforestation, foods security, transmigration

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Authors: Eylem G. Cengiz, Ersin Çilek, Gözde Başkaya, Havva Nur Taş

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It is possible to define the abuse and neglect of the child as a social problem. Such adverse experiences of the child are witnessed by wider social circles as well as his or her immediate environment. The most effective institution among these social circles is the school. The awareness of teachers, administrators, and even auxiliary personnel on this issue can act as a protective and preventive buffer because teachers have the opportunity to be with children every day and constantly observe them; therefore, they can notice the physical and mental changes in students. Furthermore, school administrators have an undeniable role in recognizing and responding to the risk of neglect and abuse. This study aims to evaluate the awareness of school administrators on the risk factors, clues, and ways of intervention towards abuse and neglect through the scenarios given to them. Data were collected from 37 primary, secondary, and high school administrators working in various provinces of Turkey through descriptive and scenario-based questions to determine their general knowledge of the concepts of neglect and abuse and their general tendencies towards practice. Descriptive questions were evaluated with content analysis, and scenario-based questions were evaluated with numerical qualitative data analysis. Concepts and themes were tried to be reached by content analysis from the descriptive data collected. When the results are evaluated in general, it is striking that the concept of child abuse means only sexual abuse for some school administrators. There is an important uncertainty for school administrators in the content of the idea of neglect. When the views on the causes of neglect and abuse are examined, the family factor was seen as the primary source of both neglect and abuse. In addition, among the prevention strategies applied by school administrators, intervention for the family -interviewing and informing- was recommended by only 9 (29%) out of 31 administrators. When the responses to the physical, emotional, and sexual abuse scenarios are examined, it is revealed that the administrators generally realize the abuse but fail to develop an appropriate/whole intervention method. The research results show that school administrators' awareness should be increased. Although administrators have sensitivity towards children, they should be empowered to recognize all types of neglect and abuse and develop appropriate intervention tools.

Keywords: assessment child abuse and neglect, child abuse, child neglect, school administrators

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Authors: Jessica Bain, Greg Thoma, Marty Matlock, Jeyam Subbiah, Ebenezer Kwofie

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The environmental impact and particulate matter emissions (PM) associated with the production and packaging of 1 kg of almonds were evaluated using life cycle assessment (LCA). The assessment began at the point of ready to harvest with a system boundary was a cradle-to-gate assessment of almond packaging in California. The assessment included three scenarios of off-ground harvesting of almonds. The three general off-ground harvesting scenarios with variations include the harvested almonds solar dried on a paper tarp in the orchard, the harvested almonds solar dried on the floor in a separate lot, and the harvested almonds dried mechanically. The life cycle inventory (LCI) data for almond production were based on previously published literature and data provided by Almond Board of California (ABC). The ReCiPe 2016 method was used to calculate the midpoint impacts. Using consequential LCA model, the global warming potential (GWP) for the three harvesting scenarios are 2.90, 2.86, and 3.09 kg CO2 eq/ kg of packaged almond for scenarios 1, 2a, and 3a, respectively. The global warming potential for conventional harvesting method was 2.89 kg CO2 eq/ kg of packaged almond. The particulate matter emissions for each scenario per hectare for each off-ground harvesting scenario is 77.14, 9.56, 66.86, and 8.75 for conventional harvesting and scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The most significant contributions to the overall emissions were from almond production. The farm gate almond production had a global warming potential of 2.12 kg CO2 eq/ kg of packaged almond, approximately 73% of the overall emissions. Based on comparisons between the GWP and PM emissions, scenario 2a was the best tradeoff between GHG and PM production.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, low moisture foods, sustainability, LCA

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Authors: Emna Bahri Hammami, Zammouri Mounira, Tarhouni Jamila

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The Nadhour Saouaf Sisseb El Alem (NSSA) system comprises some of the most intensively exploited aquifers in central Tunisia. Since the 1970s, the growth in economic productivity linked to intensive agriculture in this semiarid region has been sustained by increasing pumping rates of the system’s groundwater. Exploitation of these aquifers has increased rapidly, ultimately causing their depletion. With the aim to better understand the behavior of the aquifer system and to predict its evolution, the paper presents a finite difference model of the groundwater flow and solute transport. The model is based on the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) and was calibrated using data from 1970 to 2010. Groundwater levels observed in 1970 were used for the steady-state calibration. Groundwater levels observed from 1971 to 2010 served to calibrate the transient state. The impact of pumping discharge on the evolution of groundwater levels was studied through three hypothetical pumping scenarios. The first two scenarios replicated the approximate drawdown in the aquifer heads (about 17 m in scenario 1 and 23 m in scenario 2 in the center of NSSA) following an increase in pumping rates by 30% and 50% from their current values, respectively. In addition, pumping was stopped in the third scenario, which could increase groundwater reserves by about 7 Mm3/year. NSSA groundwater reserves could be improved considerably if the pumping rules were taken seriously.

Keywords: pumping, depletion, groundwater modeling system GMS, Nadhour Saouaf

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Authors: Jenny Ringblom, Marie Proczkowska, Laura Korhonen, Ingrid Wåhlin

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Background: Emergence delirium is a well-known behaviour of perceptual disturbances that may occur after general anaesthesia in children. Children with emergence delirium are often confused; they cry, are involuntarily physically active and are almost impossible to console. The prevalence varies considerably between about 13% and 53%. Research has mainly focused on how different medication accents affect the incidence of emergence delirium, but less is known about parents’ experiences of emergence delirium during the recovery process. Aim: The aim of this study was to describe parents’ experiences and reflections during their child's emergence delirium behaviour when recovering from anaesthesia. Method: The study has a qualitative design, and the data has been analyzed using thematic analysis. A total of 16 parents were interviewed at two county hospitals in Sweden. Results: When the parents reunited with their child at the recovering unit, they felt as if they were encountering an incomprehensible scenario. When watching their child demonstrating emergence delirium, they experienced fear and insecurity and had feelings of powerlessness and guilt. Information and previous experience turned out to offer relief and being seen by the healthcare staff when they, in their vulnerability, failed to reach or console their child gave hope and energy. Conclusion: Emergence delirium must be extensively considered in children undergoing general anaesthesia. Healthcare staff needs to be aware of the parental difficulties it may cause. There is also important to know what parents experience as relieving, such as receiving information and when staff members are being available, responsive and supportive during the wake-up period.

Keywords: emergence delirium, experiences, pediatrics, parents, postoperative care

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Authors: Frederick Huie, Lauren Fusfeld, William Burchenal, Scott Howell, Alyssa McVey, Thomas F. Goss

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Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) is a degenerative brain disease characterized by memory loss and cognitive decline that presents a substantial economic burden for patients and health insurers in the US. This study evaluates the payer budget impact of the DISCERN™ test in the diagnosis and management of patients with symptoms of dementia evaluated for AD. DISCERN™ comprises three assays that assess critical factors related to AD that regulate memory, formation of synaptic connections among neurons, and levels of amyloid plaques and neurofibrillary tangles in the brain and can provide a quicker, more accurate diagnosis than tests in the current diagnostic pathway (CDP). An Excel-based model with a three-year horizon was developed to assess the budget impact of DISCERN™ compared with CDP in a Medicare Advantage plan with 1M beneficiaries. Model parameters were identified through a literature review and were verified through consultation with clinicians experienced in diagnosis and management of AD. The model assesses direct medical costs/savings for patients based on the following categories: •Diagnosis: costs of diagnosis using DISCERN™ and CDP. •False Negative (FN) diagnosis: incremental cost of care avoidable with a correct AD diagnosis and appropriately directed medication. •True Positive (TP) diagnosis: AD medication costs; cost from a later TP diagnosis with the CDP versus DISCERN™ in the year of diagnosis, and savings from the delay in AD progression due to appropriate AD medication in patients who are correctly diagnosed after a FN diagnosis.•False Positive (FP) diagnosis: cost of AD medication for patients who do not have AD. A one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the effect of varying key clinical and cost parameters ±10%. An additional scenario analysis was developed to evaluate the impact of individual inputs. In the base scenario, DISCERN™ is estimated to decrease costs by $4.75M over three years, equating to approximately $63.11 saved per test per year for a cohort followed over three years. While the diagnosis cost is higher with DISCERN™ than with CDP modalities, this cost is offset by the higher overall costs associated with CDP due to the longer time needed to receive a TP diagnosis and the larger number of patients who receive a FN diagnosis and progress more rapidly than if they had received appropriate AD medication. The sensitivity analysis shows that the three parameters with the greatest impact on savings are: reduced sensitivity of DISCERN™, improved sensitivity of the CDP, and a reduction in the percentage of disease progression that is avoided with appropriate AD medication. A scenario analysis in which DISCERN™ reduces the utilization for patients of computed tomography from 21% in the base case to 16%, magnetic resonance imaging from 37% to 27% and cerebrospinal fluid biomarker testing, positive emission tomography, electroencephalograms, and polysomnography testing from 4%, 5%, 10%, and 8%, respectively, in the base case to 0%, results in an overall three-year net savings of $14.5M. DISCERN™ improves the rate of accurate, definitive diagnosis of AD earlier in the disease and may generate savings for Medicare Advantage plans.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, budget, dementia, diagnosis.

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Authors: M. H. Ahmadi, A. Mortazavi, H. Zarei

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Several authors have described the main mechanism of formation of cracks in the segment lining during the construction of tunnels with tunnel boring machines. A comprehensive analysis of segmental lining joints may help to guarantee a safe construction during Tunneling and serviceable stages. The most frequent types of segment damage are caused by a condition of uneven segment matching due to contact deficiencies. This paper investigated the interaction mechanism of precast concrete lining joints in tunnels. The Discrete Element Method (DEM) was used to analyze a typical segmental lining model consisting of six segment rings. In the analyses, typical segmental lining design parameters of the Ghomrood water conveyance tunnel, Iran were employed in the study. In the conducted analysis, the worst-case scenario of loading faced during the boring of Ghomrood tunnel was considered. This was associated with the existence of a crushed zone dipping at 75 degree at the location of the key segment. In the analysis, moreover, the effect of changes in horizontal stress ratio on the loads on the segment was assessed. The boundary condition associated with K (ratio of the horizontal to the vertical stress) values of 0.5, 1, 1.5 and 2 were applied to the model and separate analysis was conducted for each case. Important parameters such as stress, moments, and displacements were measured at joint locations and the surrounding rock. Accordingly, the segment joint interactions were assessed and analyzed. Moreover, rock mass properties of the Ghomrood in Ghom were adopted. In this study, the load acting on segments joints are included a crushed zone stratum force that intersect tunnel with 75 slopes in the location of the key segment, gravity force of segments and earth pressures. A numerical investigation was used for different coefficients of stress concentration of 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2 and different geological conditions of saturated crushed zone under the critical scenario. The numerical results also demonstrate that maximum bending moments in longitudinal joints occurred for crushed zone with the weaken strengths (Sandstone). Besides that, increasing the load in segment-stratum interfaces affected radial stress in longitudinal joints and finally the opening of joints occurred.

Keywords: joint, interface, segment, contact

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Authors: J. E. Oti, J. M. Kinuthia, R. Robinson, P. Davies

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In this study, The Compressive strength of concretes made with Ground Granulated Blast furnace Slag (GGBS), pulverised Fuel Ash (PFA), rice Husk Ash (RHA) and Waste Glass Powder (WGP) after they were exposed 7800C (exposure duration of around 60 minutes) and then allowed to cool down gradually in the furnace for about 280 minutes at water binder ratio of 0.50 was investigated. GGBS, PFA, RHA and WGP were used to replace up to 20% Portland cement in the control concrete. Test for the determination of workability, compressive strength and tensile splitting strength of the concretes were carried out and the results were compared with control concrete. The test results showed that the compressive strength decreased by an average of around 30% after the concretes were exposed to the heating and cooling scenario.

Keywords: concrete, heating, cooling, pulverised fuel ash, rice husk ash, waste glass powder, GGBS, workability

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Authors: Balwinder Singh, Veerpaul Kaur Mann

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The COVID-19 had a dramatic impact on several countries across the world. National governments have imposed widespread restrictions to prevent the growth of this pandemic. The new health competitive scenario induced by the COVID-19 crisis raised many issues on how business activities should be reorganized due to the difficulties of physical interactions with distributors, suppliers and customers. The pandemic has particularly affected the whole marketing processes because of the relevant issues emerged in managing physical sale channels and interactions with one another, both in the Business-to-Consumer and in the Business-to-Business markets. Recent research about the appropriate actions and strategies that could help firms overcome the crisis has highlighted the key role of digital technologies that may ensure connections and, thus, help business activities to run smoothly. This could be true, especially with the emergence of strong limitations on physical interactions during the COVID-19 pandemic. In such a scenario, the online channel becomes the most important conducive for online customers to get in contact with the firm and carry out online purchasing activities.

Keywords: COVID-19, business, digital marketing, online customers

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Authors: H. S. Kumara

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The rapid process of urbanization and the growing number of the metropolitan cities and its region call for better governance in India. This article attempts to argue that spatial planning really matters for measuring the governance at metropolitan scale. These study explore to metropolitan governance and spatial planning and its interrelationship issues, concepts and evolution of spatial planning in India and critically examines the multi actors’ scenario for measuring metropolitan governance by means of spatial planning in context with reviewing various master plans, concept of multi-actors viewpoint on role of spatial planning related to zoning regulations, master plan implementations and effective service delivery issues. This paper argues and concludes that the spatial planning of Bangalore directly impact on measuring metropolitan governance.

Keywords: metropolitan governance, spatial planning, service delivery, multi-actors’, opinion survey, master plan

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Authors: Lara Dutil-Fafard, Caroline Rhéaume, Patrick Archambault, Daniel Lafond, Neal W. Pollock

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Improving resources for medical autonomy of astronauts in prolonged space missions, such as a Mars mission, requires not only technology development, but also decision-making support systems. The Advanced Crew Medical System - Medical Condition Requirements study, funded by the Canadian Space Agency, aimed to create knowledge content and a scenario-based query capability to support medical autonomy of astronauts. The key objective of this study was to create a prototype tool for identifying medical infrastructure requirements in terms of medical knowledge, skills and materials. A multicriteria decision-making method was used to prioritize the highest risk medical events anticipated in a long-term space mission. Starting with those medical conditions, event sequence diagrams (ESDs) were created in the form of decision trees where the entry point is the diagnosis and the end points are the predicted outcomes (full recovery, partial recovery, or death/severe incapacitation). The ESD formalism was adapted to characterize and compare possible outcomes of medical conditions as a function of available medical knowledge, skills, and supplies in a given mission scenario. An extensive literature review was performed and summarized in a medical condition database. A PostgreSQL relational database was created to allow query-based evaluation of health outcome metrics with different medical infrastructure scenarios. Critical decision points, skill and medical supply requirements, and probable health outcomes were compared across chosen scenarios. The three medical conditions with the highest risk rank were acute coronary syndrome, sepsis, and stroke. Our efforts demonstrate the utility of this approach and provide insight into the effort required to develop appropriate content for the range of medical conditions that may arise.

Keywords: decision support system, event-sequence diagram, exploration mission, medical autonomy, scenario-based queries, space medicine

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Rafael Haag, Elton Rossini

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This work aims to validate and make the projections of solar energy for the Brazilian period from 2025 to 2100. As the plants designed by the HadGEM2-AO (Global Hadley Model 2 - Atmosphere) General Circulation Model UK Met Office Hadley Center, belonging to Phase 5 of the Intercomparison of Coupled Models (CMIP5). The simulation results of the model are compared with monthly data from 2006 to 2013, measured by a network of meteorological sections of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). The performance of HadGEM2-AO is evaluated by the efficiency coefficient (CEF) and bias. The results are shown in the table of maps and maps. HadGEM2-AO, in the most pessimistic scenario, RCP 8.5 had a very good accuracy, presenting efficiency coefficients between 0.94 and 0.98, the perfect setting being Solar radiation, which indicates a horizontal trend, is a climatic alternative for some regions of the Brazilian scenario, especially in spring.

Keywords: climate change, projections, solar radiation, scenarios climate change

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Authors: Mohamed Ghorab

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Local generated and distributed system for thermal and electrical energy is sighted in the near future to reduce transmission losses instead of the centralized system. Distributed Energy Resources (DER) is designed at different sizes (small and medium) and it is incorporated in energy distribution between the hubs. The energy generated from each technology at each hub should meet the local energy demands. Economic and environmental enhancement can be achieved when there are interaction and energy exchange between the hubs. Network energy system and CO₂ optimization between different six hubs presented Canadian community level are investigated in this study. Three different scenarios of technology systems are studied to meet both thermal and electrical demand loads for the six hubs. The conventional system is used as the first technology system and a reference case study. The conventional system includes boiler to provide the thermal energy, but the electrical energy is imported from the utility grid. The second technology system includes combined heat and power (CHP) system to meet the thermal demand loads and part of the electrical demand load. The third scenario has integration systems of CHP and Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) where the thermal waste energy from the CHP system is used by ORC to generate electricity. General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) is used to model DER system optimization based on energy economics and CO₂ emission analyses. The results are compared with the conventional energy system. The results show that scenarios 2 and 3 provide an annual total cost saving of 21.3% and 32.3 %, respectively compared to the conventional system (scenario 1). Additionally, Scenario 3 (CHP & ORC systems) provides 32.5% saving in CO₂ emission compared to conventional system subsequent case 2 (CHP system) with a value of 9.3%.  

Keywords: distributed energy resources, network energy system, optimization, microgeneration system

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Authors: Jiří Barta, Oldřich Svoboda, Jiří F. Urbánek

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In this paper will be discussed two coin´s sides of crisis scenarios dynamics. On the one's side is negative role of subsidiary scenario branches in its compactness weakening by means unduly chaotic atomizing, having many interactive feedbacks cases, increasing a value of a complexity here. This negative role reflects the complexity of use cases, weakening leader compliancy, which brings something as a ´readiness for controlling capabilities provision´. Leader´s dissatisfaction has zero compliancy, but factual it is a ´crossbar´ (interface in fact) between planning and executing use cases. On the other side of this coin, an advantage of rich scenarios embranchment is possible to see in a support of response awareness, readiness, preparedness, adaptability, creativity and flexibility. Here rich scenarios embranchment contributes to the steadiness and resistance of scenario mission actors. These all will be presented in live power-points ´Blazons´, modelled via DYVELOP (Dynamic Vector Logistics of Processes) on the Conference.

Keywords: leadership, controlling, complexity, DYVELOP, scenarios

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Authors: Gopinath Rathod, Vinod Puranik

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Growing business recognizes environmental consciousness as an important concept for survival in the competitive scenario. Environmental consciousness is a critical intersection between manufacturing and product design processes with environmental issues and concerns. This article presents a project in which quality function deployment (QFD) for environment (ECQFD) has been applied to rotary switches for enabling environmentally conscious design in the early stage of product development. ECQFD is capable of handling simultaneously the environmental and traditional product quality requirements. ECQFD consists of four phases. ECQFD phases I and II are concerned with the identification of parts that are important in enhancing environmental consciousness. ECQFD phases III and IV are concerned with the evaluation of effect of design improvement on environmental quality requirements. The case study has been practically validated which indicated the receptivity of applying ECQFD in industrial scenario.

Keywords: quality function deployment, environment, product design, design for environment, rotary switches

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Authors: Yehuda Roth

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In quantum theory, a system’s time evolution is predictable unless an observer performs measurement, as the measurement process can randomize the system. This randomness appears when the measuring device does not accurately describe the measured item, i.e., when the states characterizing the measuring device appear as a superposition of those being measured. When such a mismatch occurs, the measured data randomly collapse into a single eigenstate of the measuring device. This scenario resembles the interpretation process in which the observer does not experience an objective reality but interprets it based on preliminary descriptions initially ingrained into his/her mind. This distinction is the motivation for the present study in which the collapse scenario is regarded as part of the interpretation process of the observer. By adopting the formalism of the quantum theory, we present a complete mathematical approach that describes the interpretation process. We demonstrate this process by applying the proposed interpretation formalism to the ambiguous image "My wife and mother-in-law" to identify whether a woman in the picture is young or old.

Keywords: quantum-like interpretation, ambiguous image, determination, quantum-like collapse, classified representation

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Authors: Suraj Sharma

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Green infrastructure (GI) offers a contemporary approach for reducing the risk of flooding, improve water quality, and harvesting stormwater for sustainable use. GI promotes landscape planning to enhance sustainable development and urban resilience. However, the existing literature is lacking in ensuring the comprehensive assessment of GI performance in terms of ecosystem function and services for social, ecological, and economical system resilience. We propose a robust indicator set and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) for quantitative and qualitative analysis for sustainable water management to assess the capacity of urban resilience. Green infrastructure in urban resilience water management system (GIUR-WMS) supports decision-making for GI planning through scenario comparisons with urban resilience capacity index. To demonstrate the GIUR-WMS, we develop five scenarios for five sectors of Chandigarh (12, 26, 14, 17, and 34) to test common type of GI (rain barrel, rain gardens, detention basins, porous pavements, and open spaces). The result shows the open spaces achieve the highest green infrastructure urban resilience index of 4.22/5. To implement the open space scenario in urban sites, suitable vacant can be converted to green spaces (example: forest, low impact recreation areas, and detention basins) GIUR-WMS is easy to replicate, customize and apply to cities of different sizes to assess environmental, social and ecological dimensions.

Keywords: green infrastructure, assessment, urban resilience, water management system, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

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Authors: Huie-Wen Lin

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This study integrated various teaching factors -based on the idea of a flipped classroom- in a financial management course. The study’s aim was to establish an effective teaching implementation strategy and evaluation mechanism with respect to learning outcomes, which can serve as a reference for the future modification of teaching methods. This study implemented a teaching method in five stages and estimated the learning efficiencies of 22 students (in the teaching scenario and over two semesters). Subsequently, data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used to compare, for each student, between the learning efficiencies before and after participation in the flipped classroom -in the first and second semesters, respectively- to identify the crucial external factors influencing learning efficiency. According to the results, the average overall student learning efficiency increased from 0.901 in the first semester to 0.967 in the second semester, which demonstrate that the flipped classroom approach can improve teaching effectiveness and learning outcomes. The results also revealed a difference in learning efficiency between male and female students.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, flipped classroom, learning outcome, teaching and learning

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Authors: Rajeshkumar Mahendrabhai Patel, Narendrakumar D. Vasava

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It is seen that higher education in India requires a high degree of attention for the quality. The Government of India has been putting its efforts to improvise the quality of higher education through different means such as need based changes in the policy of higher education, accreditation of the institutions of higher education and many others. The Social Work education in India started way back in Tata School of Social Sciences in the year 1936. Gradually the need for social work education was felt, and different institution started imparting social work education in different regions. Due to the poor educational policy of Gujarat state (The Concept of Self-Financed Education) different Universities initiated the MSW program on a self-financed basis. The present scenario of the Social work Education in Gujarat faces ample challenges and problems which need to be addressed consciously. The present paper will try to examine and analyze the challenges and problems such as curriculum, staffing, quality of teaching, the pattern of education etc. The probable responses to this scenario are also discussed in this paper.

Keywords: social work education, challenges, problems, responses, self-financed education in Gujarat

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Authors: A. Sathiya Susuman, N. Wilson

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Background: The sexual behaviour of youths is believed to play an important role in the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Method: The data from the Malawi Demographic and Health Survey 2010 and a sample of 16,217 youth’s age 15 to 24 years (with each household 27.2% female and 72.8% male) was the basis for analysis. Bivariate and logistic regression analysis was performed. Results: The result shows married youth were not interested in condom use (94.2%, p<0.05). Those who were living together were 69 times (OR=1.69, 95% CI, 1.26–2.26) more likely to be involved in early sexual activity compared to those who were not living together. Conclusion: This scientific paper will help other researchers, policy makers, and planners to create strategies to encourage these youths to make use of contraception.

Keywords: sexually transmitted infections (STIs), reproductive tract infections (RTIs), condom use, sexual partners, early sexual debut, youths

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Authors: Alexander J. Severinsky, Allen L. Sessoms

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Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) has dominated the discussion about the causes of climate change. This is a reflection of the time horizon that has become the norm adopted by the IPCC as the planning horizon. Recently, it has become clear that a 100-year time horizon is much too long, and yet almost all mitigation efforts, including those in the near-term horizon of 30 years, are geared toward it. In this paper, we show that, for a 30-year time horizon, methane (CH₄) is the greenhouse gas whose radiative forcing exceeds that of CO₂. In our analysis, we used radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere since they directly affect the temperature rise on Earth. In 2019, the radiative forcing of methane was ~2.5 W/m² and that of carbon dioxide ~2.1 W/m². Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario until 2050, such forcing would be ~2.8 W/m² and ~3.1 W/m², respectively. There is a substantial spread in the data for anthropogenic and natural methane emissions as well as CH₄ leakages from production to consumption. We estimated the minimum and maximum effects of the reduction of these leakages. Such action may reduce the annual radiative forcing of all CH₄ emissions by between ~15% and ~30%. This translates into a reduction of the RF by 2050 from ~2.8 W/m² to ~2.5 W/m² in the case of the minimum effect and to ~2.15 W/m² in the case of the maximum. Under the BAU, we found that the RF of CO₂ would increase from ~2.1 W/m² nowadays to ~3.1 W/m² by 2050. We assumed a reduction of 50% of anthropogenic emission linearly over the next 30 years. That would reduce radiative forcing from ~3.1 W/m² to ~2.9 W/m². In the case of ‘net zero,’ the other 50% of reduction of only anthropogenic emissions would be limited to either from sources of emissions or directly from the atmosphere. The total reduction would be from ~3.1 to ~2.7, or ~0.4 W/m². To achieve the same radiative forcing as in the scenario of maximum reduction of methane leakages of ~2.15 W/m², then an additional reduction of radiative forcing of CO₂ would be approximately 2.7 -2.15=0.55 W/m². This is a much larger value than in expectations from ‘net zero’. In total, one needs to remove from the atmosphere ~660 GT to match the maximum reduction of current methane leakages and ~270 GT to achieve ‘net zero.’ This amounts to over 900 GT in total.

Keywords: methane leakages, methane radiative forcing, methane mitigation, methane net zero

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Authors: Ali Hashemifarzad, Jens Zum Hingst

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The structure of the world’s energy systems has changed significantly over the past years. One of the most important challenges in the 21st century in Germany (and also worldwide) is the energy transition. This transition aims to comply with the recent international climate agreements from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to ensure sustainable energy supply with minimal use of fossil fuels. Germany aims for complete decarbonization of the energy sector by 2050 according to the federal climate protection plan. One of the stipulations of the Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017 for the expansion of energy production from renewable sources in Germany is that they cover at least 80% of the electricity requirement in 2050; The Gross end energy consumption is targeted for at least 60%. This means that by 2050, the energy supply system would have to be almost completely converted to renewable energy. An essential basis for the development of such a sustainable energy supply from 100% renewable energies is to predict the energy requirement by 2050. This study presents two scenarios for the final energy demand in Germany in 2050. In the first scenario, the targets for energy efficiency increase and demand reduction are set very ambitiously. To build a comparison basis, the second scenario provides results with less ambitious assumptions. For this purpose, first, the relevant framework conditions (following CUTEC 2016) were examined, such as the predicted population development and economic growth, which were in the past a significant driver for the increase in energy demand. Also, the potential for energy demand reduction and efficiency increase (on the demand side) was investigated. In particular, current and future technological developments in energy consumption sectors and possible options for energy substitution (namely the electrification rate in the transport sector and the building renovation rate) were included. Here, in addition to the traditional electricity sector, the areas of heat, and fuel-based consumptions in different sectors such as households, commercial, industrial and transport are taken into account, supporting the idea that for a 100% supply from renewable energies, the areas currently based on (fossil) fuels must be almost completely be electricity-based by 2050. The results show that in the very ambitious scenario a final energy demand of 1,362 TWh/a is required, which is composed of 818 TWh/a electricity, 229 TWh/a ambient heat for electric heat pumps and approx. 315 TWh/a non-electric energy (raw materials for non-electrifiable processes). In the less ambitious scenario, in which the targets are not fully achieved by 2050, the final energy demand will need a higher electricity part of almost 1,138 TWh/a (from the total: 1,682 TWh/a). It has also been estimated that 50% of the electricity revenue must be saved to compensate for fluctuations in the daily and annual flows. Due to conversion and storage losses (about 50%), this would mean that the electricity requirement for the very ambitious scenario would increase to 1,227 TWh / a.

Keywords: energy demand, energy transition, German Energiewende, 100% renewable energy production

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: A. T. Al-Isawi, P. E. F. Collins

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The behaviour of structures exposed to fire after an earthquake is not a new area of engineering research, but there remain a number of areas where further work is required. Such areas relate to the way in which seismic excitation is applied to a structure, taking into account the effect of soil-structure interaction (SSI) and the method of analysis, in addition to identifying the excitation load properties. The selection of earthquake data input for use in nonlinear analysis and the method of analysis are still challenging issues. Thus, realistic artificial ground motion input data must be developed to certify that site properties parameters adequately describe the effects of the nonlinear inelastic behaviour of the system and that the characteristics of these parameters are coherent with the characteristics of the target parameters. Conversely, ignoring the significance of some attributes, such as frequency content, soil site properties and earthquake parameters may lead to misleading results, due to the misinterpretation of required input data and the incorrect synthesise of analysis hypothesis. This paper presents a study of the post-earthquake fire (PEF) performance of a multi-storey steel-framed building resting on soft clay, taking into account the effects of the nonlinear inelastic behaviour of the structure and soil, and the soil-structure interaction (SSI). Structures subjected to an earthquake may experience various levels of damage; the geometrical damage, which indicates the change in the initial structure’s geometry due to the residual deformation as a result of plastic behaviour, and the mechanical damage which identifies the degradation of the mechanical properties of the structural elements involved in the plastic range of deformation. Consequently, the structure presumably experiences partial structural damage but is then exposed to fire under its new residual material properties, which may result in building failure caused by a decrease in fire resistance. This scenario would be more complicated if SSI was also considered. Indeed, most earthquake design codes ignore the probability of PEF as well as the effect that SSI has on the behaviour of structures, in order to simplify the analysis procedure. Therefore, the design of structures based on existing codes which neglect the importance of PEF and SSI can create a significant risk of structural failure. In order to examine the criteria for the behaviour of a structure under PEF conditions, a two-dimensional nonlinear elasto-plastic model is developed using ABAQUS software; the effects of SSI are included. Both geometrical and mechanical damages have been taken into account after the earthquake analysis step. For comparison, an identical model is also created, which does not include the effects of soil-structure interaction. It is shown that damage to structural elements is underestimated if SSI is not included in the analysis, and the maximum percentage reduction in fire resistance is detected in the case when SSI is included in the scenario. The results are validated using the literature.

Keywords: Abaqus Software, Finite Element Analysis, post-earthquake fire, seismic analysis, soil-structure interaction

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Authors: Balasundaram Prasaant, Ploix Stephane, Delinchant Benoit, Muresan Cristian

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Hardware in Loop (HIL) testing is done to test and validate a particular product especially in building technology. When it comes to building technology, it is more important to test the products for their efficiency. The test rig in the HIL simulator may contribute to some uncertainties on measured efficiency. The uncertainties include physical uncertainties and scenario-based uncertainties. In this paper, a simple uncertainty analysis framework for an HIL setup is shown considering only the physical uncertainties. The entire modeling of the HIL setup is done in Dymola. The uncertain sources are considered based on available knowledge of the components and also on expert knowledge. For the propagation of uncertainty, Monte Carlo Simulation is used since it is the most reliable and easy to use. In this article it is shown how an HIL setup can be modeled and how uncertainty propagation can be performed on it. Such an approach is not common in building energy analysis.

Keywords: energy in buildings, hardware in loop testing, modelica modelling, Monte Carlo simulation, uncertainty propagation

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Authors: Manana Lobzhanidze

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Reforming the pension system is urgent in Georgia due to socio-economic problems. Replacing the current pension system with a new one requires, on the one hand, an assessment of the challenges in this field and, on the other hand, a study of the best practices of foreign experience. Objectives: The aim of the research is to identify challenges in the pension reform process in Georgia, to study international experience, and to develop recommendations for the implementation of an effective pension system. Methodologies: A desk study was conducted, and methods of analysis, comparison, grouping, matrix charts, and scenario analysis were used. Findings: The advantages of accumulative pension compared to the current pension system are identified. The main challenge is the non-targeting of the pension contributions and the ineffective investment policy; the public's attitude towards the cumulative pension system is determined.

Keywords: pension reform, challenges, international practice, opportunity for development

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Authors: Shivdayal Patel, Suhail Ahmad

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Safety assurance and failure prediction of composite material component of an offshore structure due to low velocity impact is essential for associated risk assessment. It is important to incorporate uncertainties associated with material properties and load due to an impact. Likelihood of this hazard causing a chain of failure events plays an important role in risk assessment. The material properties of composites mostly exhibit a scatter due to their in-homogeneity and anisotropic characteristics, brittleness of the matrix and fiber and manufacturing defects. In fact, the probability of occurrence of such a scenario is due to large uncertainties arising in the system. Probabilistic finite element analysis of composite plates due to low-velocity impact is carried out considering uncertainties of material properties and initial impact velocity. Impact-induced damage of composite plate is a probabilistic phenomenon due to a wide range of uncertainties arising in material and loading behavior. A typical failure crack initiates and propagates further into the interface causing de-lamination between dissimilar plies. Since individual crack in the ply is difficult to track. The progressive damage model is implemented in the FE code by a user-defined material subroutine (VUMAT) to overcome these problems. The limit state function is accordingly established while the stresses in the lamina are such that the limit state function (g(x)>0). The Gaussian process response surface method is presently adopted to determine the probability of failure. A comparative study is also carried out for different combination of impactor masses and velocities. The sensitivity based probabilistic design optimization procedure is investigated to achieve better strength and lighter weight of composite structures. Chain of failure events due to different modes of failure is considered to estimate the consequences of failure scenario. Frequencies of occurrence of specific impact hazards yield the expected risk due to economic loss.

Keywords: composites, damage propagation, low velocity impact, probability of failure, uncertainty modeling

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Authors: Marco Camilli

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This article examines the impact of the pandemic outbreak of COVID-19 in the tourism sector in Italy, analyzing the current scenario, the government decisions and the private company reaction for the summer season 2020. The framework of the data analyzed shows how massive it’s the impact of the pandemic outbreak in the tourism revenue, and the weaknesses of the measures proposed. Keywords Travel &Tourism, Transportation, Sustainability, COVID-19, Businesses Introduction The current COVID-19 scenario shows a shocking situation for the tourism and transportation sectors: it could be the most affected by the Coronavirus in Italy. According to forecasts, depending on the duration of the epidemic outbreak and the lockdown strategy applied by the Government, businesses in the supply chain could lose between 24 and 66 billion in turnover in the period of 2020-21, with huge diversified impacts at the national and regional level. Many tourist companies are on the verge of survival and if there are no massive measures by the government they risk closure. Data analysis The tourism and transport sector could be among the sectors most damaged by Covid-19 in Italy. Considering the two-year period 2020-21, companies operating in the travel & tourism sector (Tour operator, Travel Agencies, Hotel, Guides, Bus Company, etc..) could in suffer losses in revenues of 24 to 64 billion euros, especially in the sectors such as the travel agencies, hotel and rental. According to Statista Research Department, from April 2020 estimated that the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic will have a significant impact on revenues of the tourism industry in Italy. Revenues are expected to decrease by over 40 billion euros in the first semester of 2020, compared to the same period of the previous year. According to the study, hotel and non-hotel accommodations will experience the highest loss. Revenues of this sector are expected to decrease by 13 billion euros compared to the first semester of 2019 when accommodations registered revenues for about 17 billion euros. According to Statista.com, in 2020, Italy is expected to register a decrease of roughly 28.5 million tourist arrivals due to the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on the country's tourist sector. According to the estimate, the region of Veneto will record the highest drop with a decrease of roughly 4.61 million arrivals. Similarly, Lombardy is expected to register a decrease of about 3.87 million arrivals in 2020.

Keywords: travel and tourism, sustainability, COVID-19, businesses, transportation

Procedia PDF Downloads 199