Search results for: initial delay estimator

Authors: Kreangkri Ratchagit

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with exponential stability of switched linear systems with interval time-varying delays. The time delay is any continuous function belonging to a given interval, in which the lower bound of delay is not restricted to zero. By constructing a suitable augmented Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional combined with Leibniz-Newton’s formula, a switching rule for the exponential stability of switched linear systems with interval time-varying delays and new delay-dependent sufficient conditions for the exponential stability of the systems are first established in terms of LMIs. Finally, some examples are exploited to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Keywords: exponential stability, hybrid systems, timevarying delays, Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, Leibniz-Newton’s formula

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Authors: Seyed Ali Mohammadiborna, Mehdi Ravanshadnia

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Project delays usually detrimentally affect perceptions of project success and can in some instances, result in increased costs and other time-related damages to project stakeholders. One of the realities in the national infrastructure projects is that since the primary stakeholders are state-affiliated, the delay factors of the projects have not been seriously taken into account despite the importance of on-time completion of projects. Project postponement has different economic and social consequences and leads to the technical and economic infeasibility of the infrastructure projects in the form of reduced productivity and exploitation capacity. The present study aimed at investigating delay factors of Iranian national infrastructure projects according to regulatory reports of the Plan and Budget Organization (BPO) of Iran. The present study scrutinized the influence of each of the factors that caused delays in national Iranian infrastructure projects according to the supervision reports of the planning and budget organization in 8 years. For this purpose, the study analyzed the information regarding the impact of 12 key delay factors causing delays in average 4867 projects per year in all provinces. The said factors were classified into the three groups of executive, credit, and financial and environmental-procurement factors.

Keywords: delays, infrastructure, projects, regulatory

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Authors: Jason Sheng-Hong Tsai, Faezeh Ebrahimzadeh, Min-Ching Chung, Shu-Mei Guo, Leang-San Shieh, Tzong-Jiy Tsai, Li Wang

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In this paper, we first construct a new state and disturbance estimator using discrete-time proportional plus integral observer to estimate the system state and the unknown external disturbance for the discrete-time system with an input-to-output direct-feedthrough term. Then, the generalized optimal linear quadratic digital tracker design is applied to construct a proportional plus integral observer-based tracker for the system with an unknown external disturbance to have a desired tracking performance. Finally, a numerical simulation is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new application of our proposed approach.

Keywords: non-minimum phase system, optimal linear quadratic tracker, proportional plus integral observer, state and disturbance estimator

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Authors: Grienggrai Rajchakit

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with the exponential stability of switched linear systems with interval time-varying delays. The time delay is any continuous function belonging to a given interval, in which the lower bound of delay is not restricted to zero. By constructing a suitable augmented Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional combined with Leibniz-Newton's formula, a switching rule for the exponential stability of switched linear systems with interval time-varying delays and new delay-dependent sufficient conditions for the exponential stability of the systems are first established in terms of LMIs. Finally, some examples are exploited to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Keywords: exponential stability, hybrid systems, time-varying delays, lyapunov-krasovskii functional, leibniz-newton's formula

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Authors: Chung-Yuan Wang, Min Hsu, Bo-Ya Juan, Hsiv Ching Lin, Hsveh Min Lin, Hsiu-Fang Yeh

Abstract:

The success of Taiwan's National Health Insurance (NHI) system attracts widespread praise from the international society. However, the availability of medical care in a emote area is limited. Without the convenient public transportation system and mature social welfare policy, these people are difficult to regain their health and prevent disability. Preterm children have more risk to get development delay. Preterm children in a remote area have the human right to get rehabilitation resources as those in the city area. Therefore, the aim of this study was to show the importance of development screening to preterm children in a remote area and a tract the government to notice the issue. In Pingtung, children who are suspected development delay would be suggested to take a skillful screening evaluation in our hospital. Those preterm children (within 1-year-old) visited our pediatric clinic would also be referred to take the development evaluation. After the physiatrist’s systemic evaluation, the subjects would be scheduled to take the development evaluation. Gross motor, fine motor, speech comprehension/expression and mental study were included. The evaluation was in-charged by a physical therapist, occupational therapy, speech therapist and pediatric psychologist. The tools were Peabody developmental scale, Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development (Bayley-III) and Wechsler Preschool & Primary Scale of Intelligence-Revised (WPPSI-R). In 2013, 459 children received the service in our hospital. Among these children, fifty-seven were noted with preterm baby history (gestation within 37 weeks). Thirty-six of these preterm children, who had never receive development evaluation, were included in this study. Thirty-six subjects (twenty-six male and ten female) were included. Nineteen subjects were found development delay. Six subjects were found suspected development delay. In gross motor, six subjects were development delay and eight were suspected development delay. In fine motor, five subjects were development delay and three were suspected development delay. In speech, sixteen subjects were development delay and six were suspected development delay. In our study, through the provision of development evaluation service, 72.2% preterm baby were found their development delay or suspected delay. They need further early intervention rehabilitation service. We made their parents realize that when development delay was recognized at the early stage, they are often reversible. No only the patients but also their families were improved their health status. The number of the subjects was limited in our study. Further study might be needed. Compared with 770 physical therapist (PT) and 370 occupational therapy (OT) in Taipei, there are only 108 PT and 54 OT in Pingtung. Further, there are much fewer therapists working on the field of pediatric rehabilitation. Living healthy is a human's right, no matter where does he live. For those development delay children in remote area, particularly preterm children, early detection, and early intervention rehabilitation service could play an important role in decreasing their disability and improving their quality of life. Through this study, we suggest the government to add more national resources on the development evaluation to preterm children in a remote area.

Keywords: development, early intervention, preterm children, rehabilitation

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Authors: Si-Gwan Kim

Abstract:

In Delay Tolerant Networks (DTN), there may not exist an end-to-end path between source and destination at the time of message transmission. Employing ‘Store Carry and Forward’ delivery mechanism for message transmission in such networks usually incurs long message delays. In this paper, we present the modified Binary Spray and Wait (BSW) routing protocol that enhances the performance of the original one. Our proposed algorithm adjusts the number of forward messages depending on the number of neighbor nodes. By using beacon messages periodically, the number of neighbor nodes can be managed. The simulation using ONE simulator results shows that our modified version gives higher delivery ratio and less latency as compared to BSW.

Keywords: delay tolerant networks, store carry and forward, one simulator, binary spray and wait

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Authors: César Huiliñir, Danilo Villanueva, Pedro Iván Alvarez, Francisco Cubillos

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Biodrying aims at removing water from biowastes and has been mostly studied for municipal solid wastes (MSW), while few studies have dealt with secondary sludge from the paper and pulp industry. The goal of this study was to investigate the effect of initial moisture content (MC) on the batch biodrying of pulp and paper secondary sludge, using rice husks as bulking agents. Three initial MCs were studied (54, 65, and 74% w.b.) in closed batch laboratory-scale reactors under adiabatic conditions and with a constant air-flow rate (0.65 l min-1 kg-1 wet solid). The initial MC of the mixture of secondary sludge and rice husks showed a significant effect on the biodrying process. Using initial moisture content between 54-65% w.b., the solid moisture content was reduce up to 37 % w.b. in ten days, getting calorific values between 8000-9000 kJ kg-1. It was concluded that a decreasing of initial MC improves the drying rate and decreases the solid volatile consumption, therefore, the optimization of biodrying should consider this parameter.

Keywords: biodrying, secondary sludge, initial moisture content, pulp and paper industry, rice husk

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Authors: Muhammad Swilam

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Solutions for the wrong division problem of the Extended Multi-Modulus Divider (EMMD) that occurs during modulus extension (i.e. switching the modulus value between two different ranges of division ratios), in open loop fractional dividers and fractional multiplying delay locked loop, is proposed. A detailed study for the MMD with Sigma-Delta is also presented. Moreover, extensive simulations for the divider are presented to ensure and verify its functionality and compared with the conventional dividers.

Keywords: extended multi-modulus divider (EMMD), fractional multiplying delay locked loop, open loop fractional divider, sigma delta modulator

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Authors: Derya Karagöz

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A Shewhart chart based on normality assumption is not appropriate for skewed distributions since its Type-I error rate is inflated. This study presents X̄ and S control charts for monitoring the process variability for skewed distributions. We propose Weighted Standard Deviation (WSD) X̄ and S control charts. Standard deviation estimator is applied to monitor the process variability for estimating the process standard deviation, in the case of the W SD X̄ and S control charts as this estimator is simple and easy to compute. Unlike the Shewhart control chart, the proposed charts provide asymmetric limits in accordance with the direction and degree of skewness to construct the upper and lower limits. The performances of the proposed charts are compared with other heuristic charts for skewed distributions by using Simulation study. The Simulation studies show that the proposed control charts have good properties for skewed distributions and large sample sizes.

Keywords: weighted standard deviation, MAD, skewed distributions, S control charts

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Authors: D. Anderlini, G. Wallis

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Background: The number of people experiencing stroke is steadily increasing due to changes in diet and lifestyle, to longer life expectancy resulting in older population, to higher survival rates as a consequence of improvements during the acute phase. This study considers what risk factors might contribute to delayed entry to hospital for treatment. Methods: We analyzed data from 2472 patients admitted to the Stroke Unit of the Royal Brisbane Women's Hospital, Australia, between 2002 to 2011. Results: Previous studies have reported that factors which can contribute to delay include the patient’s age, the time of day, physical location, visit the GP instead of going to the emergency, means of transport, severity of symptoms and type of stroke. Contrary to findings of other studies, we found a strong correlation between side of lesion and delay in admission: patients with right hemisphere lesions had an average delay of 3.78 days, while patients with left hemisphere lesions had an average delay of 1.49 days. Damage to the right hemisphere generally ends in motor impairment in the non-dominant hand and no speech impediment. In contrast, left hemisphere lesions can result in deficit to; dominant hand function and aphasia which will be noticed even if their impact on performance is relatively minor. A finding which goes against many previous studies, is the fact that women get to the hospital much sooner than men, showing an average delay of 0.92 days in women vs. 3.36 days in men. Conclusion: Acute surgical-pharmacological therapies are most effective if applied immediately after stroke. Hence delays to admission can be crucial to the degree of recovery. The tendency of patients to overlook symptoms of right hemisphere lesion should be the target of information campaigns both for the general public and GPs. Why do men go to hospital so late? We don't know yet! Nevertheless an awareness plan specifically direct to male population should be on the agenda of Health Departments.

Keywords: gender, admission delay, stroke location, bioinformatics, biomedicine

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Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise linear regression models are very flexible models for modeling the data. If the piecewise linear regression models are matched against the data, then the parameters are generally not known. This paper studies the problem of parameter estimation of piecewise linear regression models. The method used to estimate the parameters of picewise linear regression models is Bayesian method. But the Bayes estimator can not be found analytically. To overcome these problems, the reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of the parameters of picewise linear regression models. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of picewise linear regression models.

Keywords: regression, piecewise, Bayesian, reversible Jump MCMC

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, I-Fan Ho

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This study examines the credibility of the signaling as explanation for IPO initial underpricing. Findings reveal the initial underpricing and the long-term underperformance of IPOs in Taiwan. However, we only find weak support for signaling as explanation of IPO underpricing.

Keywords: signaling, IPO initial underpricing, IPO long-term underperformance, Taiwan’s stock market

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Authors: Chang-Jen Lan

Abstract:

Current Level of Service (LOS) index adopted in Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) for signalized intersections on surface streets is based on the intersection average delay. The delay thresholds for defining LOS grades are subjective and is unrelated to critical traffic condition. For example, an intersection delay of 80 sec per vehicle for failing LOS grade F does not necessarily correspond to the intersection capacity. Also, a specific measure of average delay may result from delay minimization, delay equality, or other meaningful optimization criteria. To that end, a reliability version of the intersection critical degree of saturation (v/c) as the LOS index is introduced. Traditionally, the level of saturation at a signalized intersection is defined as the ratio of critical volume sum (per lane) to the average saturation flow (per lane) during all available effective green time within a cycle. The critical sum is the sum of the maximal conflicting movement-pair volumes in northbound-southbound and eastbound/westbound right of ways. In this study, both movement volume and saturation flow are assumed log-normal distributions. Because, when the conditions of central limit theorem obtain, multiplication of the independent, positive random variables tends to result in a log-normal distributed outcome in the limit, the critical degree of saturation is expected to be a log-normal distribution as well. Derivation of the risk index predictive limits is complex due to the maximum and absolute value operators, as well as the ratio of random variables. A fairly accurate functional form for the predictive limit at a user-specified significant level is yielded. The predictive limit is then compared with the designated LOS thresholds for the intersection critical degree of saturation (denoted as X

Keywords: reliability analysis, level of service, intersection critical degree of saturation, risk based index

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Authors: Manlika Ratchagit

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with robust mean square stability of uncertain stochastic switched discrete time-delay systems. The system to be considered is subject to interval time-varying delays, which allows the delay to be a fast time-varying function and the lower bound is not restricted to zero. Based on the discrete Lyapunov functional, a switching rule for the robust mean square stability for the uncertain stochastic discrete time-delay system is designed via linear matrix inequalities. Finally, some examples are exploited to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Keywords: robust mean square stability, discrete-time stochastic systems, hybrid systems, interval time-varying delays, Lyapunov functional, linear matrix inequalities

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Authors: Manlika Rajchakit

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with robust mean square stability of uncertain stochastic switched discrete time-delay systems. The system to be considered is subject to interval time-varying delays, which allows the delay to be a fast time-varying function and the lower bound is not restricted to zero. Based on the discrete Lyapunov functional, a switching rule for the robust mean square stability for the uncertain stochastic discrete time-delay system is designed via linear matrix inequalities. Finally, some examples are exploited to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Keywords: robust mean square stability, discrete-time stochastic systems, hybrid systems, interval time-varying delays, lyapunov functional, linear matrix inequalities

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Authors: K. Senthil Kumar, A. Vasumalaikannan

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In this paper, teleoperation of the quadrotor using Internet with Force feedback is addressed. Teleoperation with Force feedback is the ability to remotely control a robot, where contact (obstacle) or environment (wind gust etc) information (force feedback) is communicated from the quadrotor to the master joystick and thus giving the operator a sense of telepresence. The stability and performance of such a teleoperator is highly dependent on the amount of time delay present in the control loop. This problem is further complicated given the fact that for network based communication the time delay is itself time varying and highly non deterministic. In this paper, a novel method using Neural based Smith Predictor at the master side the stability is achieved. The performance of the system even during worst case scenario is within acceptable.

Keywords: teleoperation, quadrotor, neural smith predictor, time delay

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Authors: Govindaraj Ramanathan

Abstract:

The time delay and the structural stability are major issues in big size projects due to several factors. Improper planning and poor coordination lead to delay in construction, which sometimes result in reworking or rebuilding. This definitely increases the cost and time of project. This situation stresses the structural engineers to plan out of the limits of contemporary technology utilizing non-chronological approach with creative ideas. One of the strategies to solve this issue is through structural integrity solutions in a cost-effective way. We have faced several problems in a project worth 470 million USD, and one such issue is crane girder installation with composite steel beams. We have applied structural integrity approach with the proper and revised planning schedule to solve the problem efficiently with minimal expenses.

Keywords: construction management, delay, non-chronological approach, composite beam, structural integrity

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Authors: Anuraj Singh

Abstract:

The complex dynamics is explored in a prey predator system with multiple delays. The predator dynamics is governed by Leslie-Gower scheme. The existence of periodic solutions via Hopf bifurcation with respect to delay parameters is established. To substantiate analytical findings, numerical simulations are performed. The system shows rich dynamic behavior including chaos and limit cycles.

Keywords: chaos, Hopf bifurcation, stability, time delay

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Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.

Keywords: piecewise regression, bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation

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Authors: D. Muley, H. S. Al-Mandhari

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This paper evaluates the performance of a multi-lane four-legged modern roundabout operating in Muscat using SIDRA model. The performance measures include Degree of Saturation (DOS), average delay, and queue lengths. The geometric and traffic data were used for model preparation. Gap acceptance parameters, critical gap, and follow-up headway were used for calibration of SIDRA model. The results from the analysis showed that currently the roundabout is experiencing delays up to 610 seconds with DOS 1.67 during peak hour. Further, sensitivity analysis for general and roundabout parameters was performed, amongst lane width, cruise speed, inscribed diameter, entry radius, and entry angle showed that inscribed diameter is the most crucial factor affecting delay and DOS. Upgradation of the roundabout to the fully signalized junction was found as the suitable solution which will serve for future years with LOS C for design year having DOS of 0.9 with average control delay of 51.9 seconds per vehicle.

Keywords: performance analysis, roundabout, sensitivity analysis, SIDRA

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Authors: Natalia Rudeli, Elisabeth Viles, Adrian Santilli

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Delays in the construction industry are a global phenomenon. Many construction projects experience extensive delays exceeding the initially estimated completion time. The main purpose of this study is to identify construction projects typical behaviors in order to develop a prognosis and management tool. Being able to know a construction projects schedule tendency will enable evidence-based decision-making to allow resolutions to be made before delays occur. This study presents an innovative approach that uses Cluster Analysis Method to support predictions during Earned Value Analyses. A clustering analysis was used to predict future scheduling, Earned Value Management (EVM), and Earned Schedule (ES) principal Indexes behaviors in construction projects. The analysis was made using a database with 90 different construction projects. It was validated with additional data extracted from literature and with another 15 contrasting projects. For all projects, planned and executed schedules were collected and the EVM and ES principal indexes were calculated. A complete linkage classification method was used. In this way, the cluster analysis made considers that the distance (or similarity) between two clusters must be measured by its most disparate elements, i.e. that the distance is given by the maximum span among its components. Finally, through the use of EVM and ES Indexes and Tukey and Fisher Pairwise Comparisons, the statistical dissimilarity was verified and four clusters were obtained. It can be said that construction projects show an average delay of 35% of its planned completion time. Furthermore, four typical behaviors were found and for each of the obtained clusters, the interim milestones and the necessary rhythms of construction were identified. In general, detected typical behaviors are: (1) Projects that perform a 5% of work advance in the first two tenths and maintain a constant rhythm until completion (greater than 10% for each remaining tenth), being able to finish on the initially estimated time. (2) Projects that start with an adequate construction rate but suffer minor delays culminating with a total delay of almost 27% of the planned time. (3) Projects which start with a performance below the planned rate and end up with an average delay of 64%, and (4) projects that begin with a poor performance, suffer great delays and end up with an average delay of a 120% of the planned completion time. The obtained clusters compose a tool to identify the behavior of new construction projects by comparing their current work performance to the validated database, thus allowing the correction of initial estimations towards more accurate completion schedules.

Keywords: cluster analysis, construction management, earned value, schedule

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Authors: M. J. Park, S. H. Lee, C. H. Lee, O. M. Kwon

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This paper investigates stability problem for linear systems of neutral type with time-varying delay. By constructing various Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, and utilizing some mathematical techniques, the sufficient stability conditions for the systems are established in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be easily solved by various effective optimization algorithms. Finally, some illustrative examples are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed criterion.

Keywords: neutral systems, time-delay, stability, Lyapnov method, LMI

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Authors: Ramin Karimi

Abstract:

One of common highly mobile wireless ad hoc networks is Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks. Hence routing in vehicular ad hoc network (VANET) has attracted much attention during the last few years. VANET is characterized by its high mobility of nodes and specific topology patterns. Moreover these networks encounter a significant loss rate and a very short duration of communication. In vehicular ad hoc networks, one of challenging is routing of data due to high speed mobility and changing topology of vehicles. Geographic routing protocols are becoming popular due to advancement and availability of GPS devices. Delay Tolerant Networks (DTNs) are a class of networks that enable communication where connectivity issues like sparse connectivity, intermittent connectivity; high latency, long delay, high error rates, asymmetric data rate, and even no end-to-end connectivity exist. In this paper, we review the existing Geographic Routing Protocols for VANETs and also provide a qualitative comparison of them.

Keywords: vehicular ad hoc networks, mobility, geographic routing, delay tolerant networks

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Authors: Suparman Suparman

Abstract:

A white noise in autoregressive (AR) model is often assumed to be normally distributed. In application, the white noise usually do not follows a normal distribution. This paper aims to estimate a parameter of AR model that has a exponential white noise. A Bayesian method is adopted. A prior distribution of the parameter of AR model is selected and then this prior distribution is combined with a likelihood function of data to get a posterior distribution. Based on this posterior distribution, a Bayesian estimator for the parameter of AR model is estimated. Because the order of AR model is considered a parameter, this Bayesian estimator cannot be explicitly calculated. To resolve this problem, a method of reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is adopted. A result is a estimation of the parameter AR model can be simultaneously calculated.

Keywords: autoregressive (AR) model, exponential white Noise, bayesian, reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

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Authors: Abdullah Eqal Al Mazrooei

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In this paper, a nonlinear dynamical system is presented. This system is a bilinear class. The bilinear systems are very important kind of nonlinear systems because they have many applications in real life. They are used in biology, chemistry, manufacturing, engineering, and economics where linear models are ineffective or inadequate. They have also been recently used to analyze and forecast weather conditions. Bilinear systems have three advantages: First, they define many problems which have a great applied importance. Second, they give us approximations to nonlinear systems. Thirdly, they have a rich geometric and algebraic structures, which promises to be a fruitful field of research for scientists and applications. The type of nonlinearity that is treated and analyzed consists of bilinear interaction between the states vectors and the system input. By using some properties of the tensor product, these systems can be transformed to linear systems. But, here we discuss the nonlinearity when the state vector is multiplied by itself. So, this model will be able to handle evolutions according to the Lotka-Volterra models or the Lorenz weather models, thus enabling a wider and more flexible application of such models. Here we apply by using an estimator to estimate temperatures. The results prove the efficiency of the proposed system.

Keywords: Lorenz models, nonlinear systems, nonlinear estimator, state-space model

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Authors: Jui-Ting Hsu, Heng-Li Huang, Ming-Tzu Tsai, Kuo-Chih Su, Lih-Jyh Fuh

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The objectives of this study were to measure the initial stability of the dental implant (ISQ and PTV) in the artificial foam bone block with three different quality levels. In addition, the 3D bone to implant contact percentage (BIC%) was measured based on the micro-computed tomography images. Furthermore, the relation between the initial stability of dental implant (ISQ and PTV) and BIC% were calculated. The experimental results indicated that enhanced the material property of the artificial foam bone increased the initial stability of the dental implant. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient between the BIC% and the two approaches (ISQ and PTV) were 0.652 and 0.745.

Keywords: dental implant, implant stability quotient, peak insertion torque, bone-implant contact, micro-computed tomography

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Authors: R. Kiran, B. R. Lakshmikantha, R. V. Parimala

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Secure operation of power systems requires monitoring of the system operating conditions. Phasor measurement units (PMU) are the device, which uses synchronized signals from the GPS satellites, and provide the phasors information of voltage and currents at a given substation. The optimal locations for the PMUs must be determined, in order to avoid redundant use of PMUs. The objective of this paper is to make system observable by using minimum number of PMUs & the implementation of stability software at 22OkV grid for on-line estimation of the power system transfer capability based on voltage and thermal limitations and for security monitoring. This software utilizes State Estimator (SE) and synchrophasor PMU data sets for determining the power system operational margin under normal and contingency conditions. This software improves security of transmission system by continuously monitoring operational margin expressed in MW or in bus voltage angles, and alarms the operator if the margin violates a pre-defined threshold.

Keywords: state estimator (SE), flexible ac transmission systems (FACTS), optimal location, phasor measurement units (PMU)

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Authors: Sisay Tiroro Salato

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Background: Ethiopia has been implementing the maternal death surveillance and response system to provide real-time actionable information, including causes of death and contributing factors. Analysis of maternal mortality surveillance data was conducted to identify the causes and underlying factors in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods: We carried out a retrospective surveillance data analysis of 324 maternal deaths reported in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from 2017 to 2021. The data were extracted from the national maternal death surveillance and response database, including information from case investigation, verbal autopsy, and facility extraction forms. The data were analyzed by computing frequency and presented in numbers, proportions, and ratios. Results: Of 324 maternal deaths, 92% died in the health facilities, 6.2% in transit, and 1.5% at home. The mean age at death was 28 years, ranging from 17 to 45. The maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births was 77for the five years, ranging from 126 in 2017 to 21 in 2021. The direct and indirect causes of death were responsible for 87% and 13%, respectively. The direct causes included obstetric haemorrhage, hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, puerperal sepsis, embolism, obstructed labour, and abortion. The third delay (delay in receiving care after reaching health facilities) accounted for 57% of deaths, while the first delay (delay in deciding to seek health care) and the second delay (delay in reaching health facilities) and accounted for 34% and 24%, respectively. Late arrival to the referral facility, delayed management after admission, andnon-recognition of danger signs were underlying factors. Conclusion: Over 86% of maternal deaths were attributed by avoidable direct causes. The majority of women do try to reach health services when an emergency occurs, but the third delays present a major problem. Improving the quality of care at the healthcare facility level will help to reduce maternal death.

Keywords: maternal death, surveillance, delays, factors

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Authors: Kang-Mo Jung

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The use of regularization for statistical methods has become popular. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) framework has become the standard tool for sparse regression. However, it is well known that the LASSO is sensitive to outliers or leverage points. We consider a new robust estimation which is composed of the weighted loss function of the pairwise difference of residuals and the adaptive penalty function regulating the tuning parameter for each variable. Rank regression is resistant to regression outliers, but not to leverage points. By adopting a weighted loss function, the proposed method is robust to leverage points of the predictor variable. Furthermore, the adaptive penalty function gives us good statistical properties in variable selection such as oracle property and consistency. We develop an efficient algorithm to compute the proposed estimator using basic functions in program R. We used an optimal tuning parameter based on the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Numerical simulation shows that the proposed estimator is effective for analyzing real data set and contaminated data.

Keywords: adaptive penalty function, robust penalized regression, variable selection, weighted rank regression

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Authors: E. Steen, B. Dewulf, N. Müller, C. Vandycke, Y. Vandekerckhove

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Introduction: The care for a ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patient is time-critical. Reperfusion therapy within 90 minutes of initial medical contact is mandatory in the improvement of the outcome. Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) without previous fibrinolytic treatment, is the preferred reperfusion strategy in patients with STEMI, provided it can be performed within guideline-mandated times. Aim of the study: During a one year period (January 2013 to December 2013) the files of all consecutive STEMI patients with urgent referral from non-PCI facilities for primary PCI were reviewed. Special attention was given to a subgroup of patients with prior out-of-hospital medical contact generated by the 112-system. In an effort to reduce out-of-hospital system delay to definitive care a change in pre-hospital 112 dispatch strategies is proposed for these time-critical patients. Actual time recordings were compared with travel time simulations for two suggested scenarios. A first scenario (SC1) involves the decision by the on scene ground EMS (GEMS) team to transport the out-of-hospital diagnosed STEMI patient straight forward to a PCI centre bypassing the nearest non-PCI hospital. Another strategy (SC2) explored the potential role of helicopter EMS (HEMS) where the on scene GEMS team requests a PCI-centre based HEMS team for immediate medical transfer to the PCI centre. Methods and Results: 49 (29,1% of all) STEMI patients were referred to our hospital for emergency PCI by a non-PCI facility. 1 file was excluded because of insufficient data collection. Within this analysed group of 48 secondary referrals 21 patients had an out-of-hospital medical contact generated by the 112-system. The other 27 patients presented at the referring emergency department without prior contact with the 112-system. The table below shows the actual time data from first medical contact to definitive care as well as the simulated possible gain of time for both suggested strategies. The PCI-team was always alarmed upon departure from the referring centre excluding further in-hospital delay. Time simulation tools were similar to those used by the 112-dispatch centre. Conclusion: Our data analysis confirms prolonged reperfusion times in case of secondary emergency referrals for STEMI patients even with the use of HEMS. In our setting there was no statistical difference in gain of time between the two suggested strategies, both reducing the secondary referral generated delay with about one hour and by this offering all patients PCI within the guidelines mandated time. However, immediate HEMS activation by the on scene ground EMS team for transport purposes is preferred. This ensures a faster availability of the local GEMS-team for its community. In case these options are not available and the guideline-mandated times for primary PCI are expected to be exceeded, primary fibrinolysis should be considered in a non-PCI centre.

Keywords: STEMI, system delay, HEMS, emergency medicine

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