Search results for: arrival time prediction

Authors: Abiodun Ayodele Sanyaolu

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The research was carried out to investigate the time series analysis on quarterly production of fruit juice at the National Horticultural Research Institute Ibadan from 2010 to 2018. Documentary method of data collection was used, and the method of least square and moving average were used in the analysis. From the calculation and the graph, it was glaring that there was increase, decrease, and uniform movements in both the graph of the original data and the tabulated quarter values of the original data. Time series analysis was used to detect the trend in the highest number of fruit juice and it appears to be good over a period of time and the methods used to forecast are additive and multiplicative models. Since it was observed that the production of fruit juice is usually high in January of every year, it is strongly advised that National Horticultural Research Institute should make more provision for fruit juice storage outside this period of the year.

Keywords: fruit juice, least square, multiplicative models, time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Balakrishna Valluru, Ruth Suckling

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A 16 year old male was found collapsed on the road following stab injuries to the chest and abdomen and was transported to the emergency department by ambulance. On arrival in the emergency department the patient was breathless and appeared pale. He was maintaining his airway with spontaneous breathing and had a heart rate of 122 beats per minute with a blood pressure of 83/63 mmHg. He was resuscitated initially with three units of packed red cells. Clinical examination identified three incisional wounds each measuring 2 cm. These were in the left para-sternal region, right infra-scapular region and left upper quadrant of the abdomen. The chest wound over the left parasternal area at the level of 4tth intercostal space was bleeding intermittently on leaning forwards and was relieving his breathlessness intermittently. CT imaging was performed to characterize his injuries and determine his management. CT scan of chest and abdomen showed moderate size haemopericardium with left sided haemopneumothorax. The patient underwent urgent surgical repair of the left ventricle and left anterior descending artery. He recovered without complications and was discharged from the hospital. This case highlights the fact that the potential to develop a life threatening cardiac tamponade was mitigated by the left parasternal stab wound. This injury fortuitously provided a pericardial window through which the bleeding from the injured left ventricle and left anterior descending artery could drain into the left hemithorax providing an opportunity for timely surgical intervention to repair the cardiac injuries.

Keywords: stab, incisional, haemo-pericardium, haemo-pneumothorax

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Shagufta Tabassum, V. P. Pawar

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The study of static dielectric properties in a binary mixture of 1,2 dichloroethane (DE) and n,n dimethylformamide (DMF) polar liquids has been carried out in the frequency range of 10 MHz to 30 GHz for 11 different concentration using time domain reflectometry technique at 10ºC temperature. The dielectric relaxation study of solute-solvent mixture at microwave frequencies gives information regarding the creation of monomers and multimers as well as interaction between the molecules of the binary mixture. The least squares fit method is used to determine the values of dielectric parameters such as static dielectric constant (ε₀), dielectric constant at high frequency (ε_∞) and relaxation time (τ).

Keywords: shagufta shaikhexcess parameters, relaxation time, static dielectric constant, time domain reflectometry

Procedia PDF Downloads 244

Authors: Chien-Lin Wang, Cha-Ling Ko, Tainsong Chen

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Pulse Blood pressure (BP) is one of the vital signs, and is an index that helps determining the stability of life. In this respect, some spinal cord injury patients need to take the tilt table test. While doing the test, the posture changes abruptly, and may cause a patient’s BP to change abnormally. This may cause patients to feel discomfort, and even feel as though their life is threatened. Therefore, if a continuous non-invasive BP assessment system were built, it could help to alert health care professionals in the process of rehabilitation when the BP value is out of range. In our research, BP assessed by the pulse transit time technique was developed. In the system, we use a self-made photoplethysmograph (PPG) sensor and filter circuit to detect two PPG signals and to calculate the time difference. The BP can immediately be assessed by the trend line. According to the results of this study, the relationship between the systolic BP and PTT has a highly negative linear correlation (R2=0.8). Further, we used the trend line to assess the value of the BP and compared it to a commercial sphygmomanometer (Omron MX3); the error rate of the system was found to be in the range of ±10%, which is within the permissible error range of a commercial sphygmomanometer. The continue blood pressure measurement from pulse transit time technique may have potential to become a convenience method for clinical rehabilitation.

Keywords: continous blood pressure measurement, PPG, time transit time, transit velocity

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Pavan Shah

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In an Embedded system, Virtualization and visualization technology can provide us an effective response and measurable work in a software development environment. In addition to work of virtualization and virtualization can be easily deserved to provide the best resource sharing between real-time hardware applications and a healthy environment. However, the virtualization is noticeable work to minimize the I/O work and utilize virtualization & virtualization technology for either a software development environment (SDE) or a runtime environment of real-time embedded systems (RTMES) or real-time operating system (RTOS) eras. In this Paper, we particularly focus on virtualization and visualization overheads data of network which generates the I/O and implementation of standardized I/O (i.e., Virto), which can work as front-end network driver in a real-time operating system (RTOS) hardware module. Even there have been several work studies are available based on the virtualization operating system environment, but for the Virto on a general-purpose OS, my implementation is on the open-source Virto for a real-time operating system (RTOS). In this paper, the measurement results show that implementation which can improve the bandwidth and latency of memory management of the real-time operating system environment (RTMES) for getting more accuracy of the trained model.

Keywords: virtualization, visualization, network driver, operating system

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Shogo Nagano, Yusuke Tanigaki, Hirokazu Fukuda

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Vegetables harvested early in the morning or late in the afternoon are valued in plant production, and so the time of harvest is important. The biological functions known as circadian clocks have a significant effect on this harvest timing. The purpose of this study was to non-destructively estimate the circadian clock and so construct a method for determining a suitable harvest time. We took eight samples of green busil (Perilla frutescens var. crispa) every 4 hours, six times for 1 day and analyzed all samples at the same time. A hyperspectral camera was used to collect spectrum intensities at 141 different wavelengths (350–1050 nm). Calculation of correlations between spectrum intensity of each wavelength and harvest time suggested the suitability of the hyperspectral camera for non-destructive estimation. However, even the highest correlated wavelength had a weak correlation, so we used machine learning to raise the accuracy of estimation and constructed a machine learning model to estimate the internal time of the circadian clock. Artificial neural networks (ANN) were used for machine learning because this is an effective analysis method for large amounts of data. Using the estimation model resulted in an error between estimated and real times of 3 min. The estimations were made in less than 2 hours. Thus, we successfully demonstrated this method of non-destructively estimating internal time.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), circadian clock, green busil, hyperspectral camera, non-destructive evaluation

Procedia PDF Downloads 299

Authors: Toufic Abd El-Latif Sadek

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The Asphalt object represents the asphalted areas, like roads. The best original data of thermal images occurred at a specific time during the days of the year, by preventing the gaps in times which give the close and same brightness from different objects, using seven sample objects, asphalt, concrete, metal, rock, dry soil, vegetation, and water. It has been found in this study a general timing equation for capturing satellite thermal images at different locations, depends on a fixed time the sunrise and sunset; Capture Time= Tcap =(TM*TSR) ±TS.

Keywords: asphalt, satellite, thermal images, timing equation

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: Zachary Blanks, Solomon Sonya

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Poaching presents a serious threat to endangered animal species, environment conservations, and human life. Additionally, some poaching activity has even been linked to supplying funds to support terrorist networks elsewhere around the world. Consequently, agencies dedicated to protecting wildlife habitats have a near intractable task of adequately patrolling an entire area (spanning several thousand kilometers) given limited resources, funds, and personnel at their disposal. Thus, agencies need predictive tools that are both high-performing and easily implementable by the user to help in learning how the significant features (e.g. animal population densities, topography, behavior patterns of the criminals within the area, etc) interact with each other in hopes of abating poaching. This research develops a classification model using machine learning algorithms to aid in forecasting future attacks that is both easy to train and performs well when compared to other models. In this research, we demonstrate how data imputation methods (specifically predictive mean matching, gradient boosting, and random forest multiple imputation) can be applied to analyze data and create significant predictions across a varied data set. Specifically, we apply these methods to improve the accuracy of adopted prediction models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, etc). Finally, we assess the performance of the model and the accuracy of our data imputation methods by learning on a real-world data set constituting four years of imputed data and testing on one year of non-imputed data. This paper provides three main contributions. First, we extend work done by the Teamcore and CREATE (Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events) research group at the University of Southern California (USC) working in conjunction with the Department of Homeland Security to apply game theory and machine learning algorithms to develop more efficient ways of reducing poaching. This research introduces ensemble methods (Random Forests and Stochastic Gradient Boosting) and applies it to real-world poaching data gathered from the Ugandan rain forest park rangers. Next, we consider the effect of data imputation on both the performance of various algorithms and the general accuracy of the method itself when applied to a dependent variable where a large number of observations are missing. Third, we provide an alternate approach to predict the probability of observing poaching both by season and by month. The results from this research are very promising. We conclude that by using Stochastic Gradient Boosting to predict observations for non-commercial poaching by season, we are able to produce statistically equivalent results while being orders of magnitude faster in computation time and complexity. Additionally, when predicting potential poaching incidents by individual month vice entire seasons, boosting techniques produce a mean area under the curve increase of approximately 3% relative to previous prediction schedules by entire seasons.

Keywords: ensemble methods, imputation, machine learning, random forests, statistical analysis, stochastic gradient boosting, wildlife protection

Procedia PDF Downloads 292

Authors: Jaswinder Singh

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In this paper, comparative analysis is carried out to study the performance of wavelength/time/space optical CDMA codes using two well-known formats; those are CSRZ and DPSK-RZ using RSoft’s OptSIM. The analysis is carried out under the real-like scenario considering the presence of various non-linear effects such as XPM, SPM, SRS, SBS and FWM. Fiber dispersion and the multiple access interference are also considered. The codes used in this analysis are 3-D wavelength/time/space codes. These are converted into 2-D wavelength-time codes so that their requirement of space couplers and fiber ribbons is eliminated. Under the conditions simulated, this is found that CSRZ performs better than DPSK-RZ for fiber-optic CDMA applications.

Keywords: Optical CDMA, Multiple access interference (MAI), CSRZ, DPSK-RZ

Procedia PDF Downloads 645

Authors: L. Benbaouche, H. E. , F. Krim

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In this paper we propose real-time control of grid-connected single phase inverter, which is flexible and efficient. The first step is devoted to the study and design of the controller through simulation, conducted by the LabVIEW software on the computer 'host'. The second step is running the application from PXI 'target'. LabVIEW software, combined with NI-DAQmx, gives the tools to easily build applications using the digital to analog converter to generate the PWM control signals. Experimental results show that the effectiveness of LabVIEW software applied to power electronics.

Keywords: real-time control, labview, inverter, PWM

Procedia PDF Downloads 509

Authors: Viral Nagori, Preeti Shroff, Prathana Dodia

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The paper presents the study on women entrepreneurship over the last decade in Indian and Global Context. This research study has its basis primarily in the literature review. The research methodology classifies the literature review paper based on different parameters of women entrepreneurship. The literature review relies on research papers in journals, articles in periodicals, and books published on women entrepreneurship. To accomplish this, the criteria included finding the most relevant, recent, and cited studies on women entrepreneurship over the last decade. It aims to evaluate the issues and challenges faced by women entrepreneurs. The finding suggested that there are several common obstacles, which hinders the pathway to success towards being a successful woman entrepreneur. The paper also describes such common obstacles like the level of education, family responsibilities, lack of business information, religious and cultural constraints, limited mobility, exposure, lack of working capital, and more. The in-depth analysis of literature review indicates that despite the numerous barriers, the arrival of social media has played a crucial role in enabling women to start and scale up their enterprises. Further, technology innovation has given them access to have relevant market information, increase reach and network with the customers. It enabled them to achieve work life balance and pursuing entrepreneur in them. The paper also describes the Government and Nongovernmental initiatives for promotion of women entrepreneurship. At the end, the study provides insights into the changing dynamics of women entrepreneurship in the current scenario and future prospects.

Keywords: changing dynamics, government initiatives, literature review, social media, technology innovation, women entrepreneurship

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Masao Fujisawa, Hirohito Ikeda, Tomonori Ohata, Miho Yukawa, Hatsumi Aki, Takayoshi Kimura

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We attempted to predict adsorption coefficients by utilizing dispersion energies. We performed liquid-phase free energy calculations based on gas-phase geometries of organic compounds using the DFT and studied the relationship between the adsorption of organic compounds by activated carbon and dispersion energies of the organic compounds. A linear correlation between absorption coefficients and dispersion energies was observed.

Keywords: activated carbon, adsorption, prediction, dispersion energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 233

Authors: Duhania O. Mahara, Santi W. Purnami, Aulia N. Fitria, Merissa N. Z. Wirontono, Revina Musfiroh, Shofi Andari, Sagiran Sagiran, Estiana Khoirunnisa, Wahyudi Widada

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For assessing interventions in numerous disease areas, the use of multiple time-to-event outcomes is common. An individual might experience two different events called bivariate time-to-event data, the events may be correlated because it come from the same subject and also influenced by individual characteristics. The bivariate time-to-event case can be applied by copula-based bivariate Cox survival model, using the Clayton and Frank copulas to analyze the dependence structure of each event and also the covariates effect. By applying this method to modeling the recurrent event infection of hemodialysis insertion on chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, from the AIC and BIC values we find that the Clayton copula model was the best model with Kendall’s Tau is (τ=0,02).

Keywords: bivariate cox, bivariate event, copula function, survival copula

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Helene Thieblemont, Fariborz Haghighat

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Energy storage systems play a crucial role in decreasing building energy consumption during peak periods and expand the use of renewable energies in buildings. To provide a high building thermal performance, the energy storage system has to be properly controlled to insure a good energy performance while maintaining a satisfactory thermal comfort for building’s occupant. In the case of passive discharge storages, defining in advance the required amount of energy is required to avoid overheating in the building. Consequently, anticipatory supervisory control strategies have been developed forecasting future energy demand and production to coordinate systems. Anticipatory supervisory control strategies are based on some predictions, mainly of the weather forecast. However, if the forecasted hourly outdoor temperature may be found online with a high accuracy, solar radiations predictions are most of the time not available online. To estimate them, this paper proposes an advanced approach based on the forecast of weather conditions. Several methods to correlate hourly weather conditions forecast to real hourly solar radiations are compared. Results show that using weather conditions forecast allows estimating with an acceptable accuracy solar radiations of the next day. Moreover, this technique allows obtaining hourly data that may be used for building models. As a result, this solar radiation prediction model may help to implement model-based controller as Model Predictive Control.

Keywords: anticipatory control, model predictive control, solar radiation forecast, thermal storage

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Marcin Sowa

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The paper discusses the subinterval-based numerical method for fractional derivative computations. It is now referred to by its acronym – SubIval. The basis of the method is briefly recalled. The ability of the method to be applied in time stepping solvers is discussed. The possibility of implementing a time step size adaptive solver is also mentioned. The solver is tested on a transient circuit example. In order to display the accuracy of the solver – the results have been compared with those obtained by means of a semi-analytical method called gcdAlpha. The time step size adaptive solver applying SubIval has been proven to be very accurate as the results are very close to the referential solution. The solver is currently able to solve FDE (fractional differential equations) with various derivative orders for each equation and any type of source time functions.

Keywords: numerical method, SubIval, fractional calculus, numerical solver, circuit analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 205

Authors: Emily Hamilton, Adiel Kahana, Ron Hauser, Shimi Barda

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BACKGROUND: In the male fertility and sperm bank unit of Tel Aviv Sourasky medical center, women are treated with intrauterine insemination (IUI) using washed sperm from their partner or thawed sperm from a selected donor. In most cases, the women perform the IUI treatment in Sourasky, but sometimes they ask to undergo the insemination procedure in another clinic with their own fertility doctor. In these cases, the sperm sample is prepared at the Sourasky lab and the patient is inseminated after arriving to her doctor. Our laboratory has previously found that time negatively affects several parameters of thawed sperm, and we estimate that it has more severe and significant effect than on washed sperm. AIM: To examine the effect of time on the quality of washed sperm versus thawed sperm. METHODS: Sperm samples were collected from men referred for semen analysis. Each ejaculate was allowed to liquefy for at least 20 min at 37°C and analyzed for sperm motility and vitality percentage and DNA fragmentation index (Time 0). Subsequently, 1ml of the sample was divided into two parts, 1st part was washed only and the 2nd part was washed, frozen and thawed. Time 1 analysis occurred immediately after sperm washing or thawing. Time 2 analysis occurred 75 minutes after time 1. Statistical analysis was performed using Student t-test. P values<0.05 were considered significant. RESULTS: Preliminary data showed that time had a greater impact on the average percentages of sperm motility and vitality in thawed compared to washed sperm samples (26%±10% vs. 21%±10% and 21%±9% vs. 9%±10%, respectively). An additional trend towards increased average DNA fragmentation percentage in thawed samples compared to washed samples was observed (46%±18% vs. 25%±24%). CONCLUSION: Time negatively effects sperm quality. The effect is greater in thawed samples compared to fresh samples.

Keywords: ART, male fertility, sperm cryopreservation, sperm quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Narendra Akhadkar, Philippe Delcambre

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In power protection and control products, assembly process variations due to the individual parts manufactured from single or multi-cavity tooling is a major problem. The dimensional and geometrical variations on the individual parts, in the form of manufacturing tolerances and assembly tolerances, are sources of clearance in the kinematic joints, polarization effect in the joints, and tolerance stack-up. All these variations adversely affect the quality of product, functionality, cost, and time-to-market. Variation simulation analysis may be used in the early product design stage to predict such uncertainties. Usually, variations exist in both manufacturing processes and materials. In the tolerance analysis, the effect of the dimensional and geometrical variations of the individual parts on the functional characteristics (conditions) of the final assembled products are studied. A functional characteristic of the product may be affected by a set of interrelated dimensions (functional parameters) that usually form a geometrical closure in a 3D chain. In power protection and control products, the prerequisite is: when a fault occurs in the electrical network, the product must respond quickly to react and break the circuit to clear the fault. Usually, the response time is in milliseconds. Any failure in clearing the fault may result in severe damage to the equipment or network, and human safety is at stake. In this article, we have investigated two important functional characteristics that are associated with the robust performance of the product. It is demonstrated that the experimental data obtained at the Schneider Electric Laboratory prove the very good prediction capabilities of the variation simulation performed using CETOL (tolerance analysis software) in an industrial context. Especially, this study allows design engineers to better understand the critical parts in the product that needs to be manufactured with good, capable tolerances. On the contrary, some parts are not critical for the functional characteristics (conditions) of the product and may lead to some reduction of the manufacturing cost, ensuring robust performance. The capable tolerancing is one of the most important aspects in product and manufacturing process design. In the case of miniature circuit breaker (MCB), the product's quality and its robustness are mainly impacted by two aspects: (1) allocation of design tolerances between the components of a mechanical assembly and (2) manufacturing tolerances in the intermediate machining steps of component fabrication.

Keywords: geometrical variation, product robustness, tolerance analysis, variation simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Zafer Yüce, Paşa Yayla, Alev Taşkın

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There are heaps of analytical methods to estimate the crack growth life of a component. Soft computing methods have an increasing trend in predicting fatigue life. Their ability to build complex relationships and capability to handle huge amounts of data are motivating researchers and industry professionals to employ them for challenging problems. This study focuses on soft computing methods, especially random forest regressors and artificial neural networks with hyperparameter optimization algorithms such as grid search and random grid search, to estimate the crack growth life of an aircraft wing splice joint under variable amplitude loading. TensorFlow and Scikit-learn libraries of Python are used to build the machine learning models for this study. The material considered in this work is 7050-T7451 aluminum, which is commonly preferred as a structural element in the aerospace industry, and regarding the crack type; corner crack is used. A finite element model is built for the joint to calculate fastener loads and stresses on the structure. Since finite element model results are validated with analytical calculations, findings of the finite element model are fed to AFGROW software to calculate analytical crack growth lives. Based on Fighter Aircraft Loading Standard for Fatigue (FALSTAFF), 90 unique fatigue loading spectra are developed for various load levels, and then, these spectrums are utilized as inputs to the artificial neural network and random forest regression models for predicting crack growth life. Finally, the crack growth life predictions of the machine learning models are compared with analytical calculations. According to the findings, a good correlation is observed between analytical and predicted crack growth lives.

Keywords: aircraft, fatigue, joint, life, optimization, prediction.

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Jing Jiang, Wenhuan XU, Lei Zhang, Shiyi Zhang, Tongli Wang

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Climate data quality significantly affects the reliability of ecological modeling. In the Asia Pacific (AP) region, low-quality climate data hinders ecological modeling. ClimateAP, a software developed in 2017, generates high-quality climate data for the AP region, benefiting researchers in forestry and agriculture. However, its adoption remains limited. This study aims to confirm the validity of biologically relevant variable data generated by ClimateAP during the normal climate period through comparison with the currently available gridded data. Climate data from 2,366 weather stations were used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of ClimateAP in comparison with the commonly used gridded data from WorldClim1.4. Univariate regressions were applied to 48 monthly biologically relevant variables, and the relationship between the observational data and the predictions made by ClimateAP and WorldClim was evaluated using Adjusted R-Squared and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Locations were categorized into mountainous and flat landforms, considering elevation, slope, ruggedness, and Topographic Position Index. Univariate regressions were then applied to all biologically relevant variables for each landform category. Random Forest (RF) models were implemented for the climatic niche modeling of Cunninghamia lanceolata. A comparative analysis of the prediction accuracies of RF models constructed with distinct climate data sources was conducted to evaluate their relative effectiveness. Biologically relevant variables were obtained from three unpublished Chinese meteorological datasets. ClimateAPv3.0 and WorldClim predictions were obtained from weather station coordinates and WorldClim1.4 rasters, respectively, for the normal climate period of 1961-1990. Occurrence data for Cunninghamia lanceolata came from integrated biodiversity databases with 3,745 unique points. ClimateAP explains a minimum of 94.74%, 97.77%, 96.89%, and 94.40% of monthly maximum, minimum, average temperature, and precipitation variances, respectively. It outperforms WorldClim in 37 biologically relevant variables with lower RMSE values. ClimateAP achieves higher R-squared values for the 12 monthly minimum temperature variables and consistently higher Adjusted R-squared values across all landforms for precipitation. ClimateAP's temperature data yields lower Adjusted R-squared values than gridded data in high-elevation, rugged, and mountainous areas but achieves higher values in mid-slope drainages, plains, open slopes, and upper slopes. Using ClimateAP improves the prediction accuracy of tree occurrence from 77.90% to 82.77%. The biologically relevant climate data produced by ClimateAP is validated based on evaluations using observations from weather stations. The use of ClimateAP leads to an improvement in data quality, especially in non-mountainous regions. The results also suggest that using biologically relevant variables generated by ClimateAP can slightly enhance climatic niche modeling for tree species, offering a better understanding of tree species adaptation and resilience compared to using gridded data.

Keywords: climate data validation, data quality, Asia pacific climate, climatic niche modeling, random forest models, tree species

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: Valeria Bondarenko

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In this paper, we propose two problems related to fractal Brownian motion. First problem is simultaneous estimation of two parameters, Hurst exponent and the volatility, that describe this random process. Numerical tests for the simulated fBm provided an efficient method. Second problem is approximation of the increments of the observed time series by a power function by increments from the fractional Brownian motion. Approximation and estimation are shown on the example of real data, daily deposit interest rates.

Keywords: fractional Brownian motion, Gausssian processes, approximation, time series, estimation of properties of the model

Procedia PDF Downloads 376

Authors: Dimitri Golenko-Ginzburg

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A CPM network project with deterministic activity durations, in which activities require homogenous resources with fixed capacities, is considered. The problem is to determine the optimal schedule of starting times for all network activities within their maximal allowable limits (in order not to exceed the network's critical time) to minimize the maximum required resources for the project at any point in time. In case when a non-critical activity may start only at discrete moments with the pregiven time span, the problem becomes NP-complete and an optimal solution may be obtained via a look-over algorithm. For the case when a look-over requires much computational time an approximate algorithm is suggested. The algorithm's performance ratio, i.e., the relative accuracy error, is determined. Experimentation has been undertaken to verify the suggested algorithm.

Keywords: resource smoothing problem, CPM network, lookover algorithm, lexicographical order, approximate algorithm, accuracy estimate

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Zongjie Wang, Zhizhong Guo

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While the regular optimal power flow model focuses on a single time scan, the optimization of power systems is typically intended for a time duration with respect to a desired objective function. In this paper, a temporal optimal power flow model for a time period is proposed. To reduce the computation burden needed for calculating temporal optimal power flow, a characteristic optimal power flow model is proposed, which employs different characteristic load patterns to represent the objective function and security constraints. A numerical method based on the interior point method is also proposed for solving the characteristic optimal power flow model. Both the temporal optimal power flow model and characteristic optimal power flow model can improve the systems’ desired objective function for the entire time period. Numerical studies are conducted on the IEEE 14 and 118-bus test systems to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed characteristic optimal power flow model.

Keywords: optimal power flow, time period, security, economy

Procedia PDF Downloads 451

Authors: Nanine Fouche

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The Cape Flats is a low-lying sand-covered expanse of approximately 460 square kilometres, situated to the southeast of the central business district of Cape Town in the Western Cape of South Africa. The aeolian sands masking this area are often loose and compressible in the upper 1m to 1.5m of the surface, and there is a general exceedance of the maximum allowable settlement in these sands. The settlement of shallow foundations on Cape Flats sands is commonly predicted using the results of in-situ tests such as the SPT or DPSH due to the difficulty of retrieving undisturbed samples for laboratory testing. Varying degrees of accuracy and reliability are associated with these methods. More recently, shear wave velocity (Vs) profiles obtained from seismic testing, such as continuous surface wave tests (CSW), are being used for settlement prediction. Such predictions have the advantage of considering non-linear stress-strain behaviour of soil and the degradation of stiffness with increasing strain. CSW tests are rarely executed in the Cape Flats, whereas SPT’s are commonly performed. For this reason, and to facilitate better settlement predictions in Cape Flats sand, equations representing shear wave velocity (Vs) as a function of SPT blow count (N60) and vertical effective stress (v’) were generated by statistical regression of site investigation data. To reveal the most appropriate method of overburden correction, analyses were performed with a separate overburden term (Pa/σ’v) as well as using stress corrected shear wave velocity and SPT blow counts (correcting Vs. and N60 to Vs1and (N1)60respectively). Shear wave velocity profiles and SPT blow count data from three sites masked by Cape Flats sands were utilised to generate 80 Vs-SPT N data pairs for analysis. Investigated terrains included sites in the suburbs of Athlone, Muizenburg, and Atlantis, all underlain by windblown deposits comprising fine and medium sand with varying fines contents. Elastic settlement analysis was also undertaken for the Cape Flats sands, using a non-linear stepwise method based on small-strain stiffness estimates, which was obtained from the best Vs-N60 model and compared to settlement estimates using the general elastic solution with stiffness profiles determined using Stroud’s (1989) and Webb’s (1969) SPT N60-E transformation models. Stroud’s method considers strain level indirectly whereasWebb’smethod does not take account of the variation in elastic modulus with strain. The expression of Vs. in terms of N60 and Pa/σv’ derived from the Atlantis data set revealed the best fit with R2 = 0.83 and a standard error of 83.5m/s. Less accurate Vs-SPT N relations associated with the combined data set is presumably the result of inversion routines used in the analysis of the CSW results showcasing significant variation in relative density and stiffness with depth. The regression analyses revealed that the inclusion of a separate overburden term in the regression of Vs and N60, produces improved fits, as opposed to the stress corrected equations in which the R2 of the regression is notably lower. It is the correction of Vs and N60 to Vs1 and (N1)60 with empirical constants ‘n’ and ‘m’ prior to regression, that introduces bias with respect to overburden pressure. When comparing settlement prediction methods, both Stroud’s method (considering strain level indirectly) and the small strain stiffness method predict higher stiffnesses for medium dense and dense profiles than Webb’s method, which takes no account of strain level in the determination of soil stiffness. Webb’s method appears to be suitable for loose sands only. The Versak software appears to underestimate differences in settlement between square and strip footings of similar width. In conclusion, settlement analysis using small-strain stiffness data from the proposed Vs-N60 model for Cape Flats sands provides a way to take account of the non-linear stress-strain behaviour of the sands when calculating settlement.

Keywords: sands, settlement prediction, continuous surface wave test, small-strain stiffness, shear wave velocity, penetration resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Khaing Yadana Swe, Lillie Dewan

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At present, the cascade PID control is widely used to control the super-heating temperature (main steam temperature). As the main steam temperature has the characteristics of large inertia, large time-delay, and time varying, etc., conventional PID control strategy can not achieve good control performance. In order to overcome the bad performance and deficiencies of main steam temperature control system, Model Free Adaptive Control (MFAC) P cascade control system is proposed in this paper. By substituting MFAC in PID of the main control loop of the main steam temperature control, it can overcome time delays, non-linearity, disturbance and time variation.

Keywords: model-free adaptive control, cascade control, adaptive control, PID

Procedia PDF Downloads 603

Authors: Jadwiga Klukow, Anna Ksykiewicz-Dorota

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An analysis of the distribution of nurses’ working time constitutes vital information for the management in planning employment. The objective of the study was to analyze the distribution of nurses’ working time in an emergency department. The study was conducted in an emergency department of a teaching hospital in Lublin, in Southeast Poland. The catalogue of activities performed by nurses was compiled by means of continuous observation. Identified activities were classified into four groups: Direct care, indirect care, coordination of work in the department and personal activities. Distribution of nurses’ working time was determined by work sampling observation (Tippett) at random intervals. The research project was approved by the Research Ethics Committee by the Medical University of Lublin (Protocol 0254/113/2010). On average, nurses spent 31% of their working time on direct care, 47% on indirect care, 12% on coordinating work in the department and 10% on personal activities. The most frequently performed direct care tasks were diagnostic activities – 29.23% and treatment-related activities – 27.69%. The study has provided information on the complexity of performed activities and utilization of nurses’ working time. Enhancing the effectiveness of nursing actions requires working out a strategy for improved management of the time nurses spent at work. Increasing the involvement of auxiliary staff and optimizing communication processes within the team may lead to reduction of the time devoted to indirect care for the benefit of direct care.

Keywords: emergency nurses, nursing care, workload, work sampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: Ece Kaya

Abstract:

Urban waterfront re-development is a well-established phenomenon internationally since 1960s. In cities throughout the world, old industrial waterfront land is being redeveloped into luxury housing, offices, tourist attractions, cultural amenities and shopping centres. These developments are intended to attract high-income residents, tourists and investors to the city. As urban waterfronts are iconic places for the cities and catalyst for further development. They are often referred as flagship project. In Sydney, the re-development of industrial waterfront has been exposed since 1980s with Darling Harbour Project. Darling Harbour waterfront used to be the main arrival and landing place for commercial and industrial shipping until 1970s. Its urban development has continued since the establishment of the city. It was developed as a major industrial and goods-handling precinct in 1812. This use was continued by the mid-1970s. After becoming a redundant industrial waterfront, the area was ripe for re-development in 1984. Darling Harbour is now one of the world’s fascinating waterfront leisure and entertainment destinations and its transformation has been considered as a success story. It is a contradictory statement for this paper. Data collection was carried out using an extensive archival document analysis. The data was obtained from Australian Institute of Architects, City of Sydney Council Archive, Parramatta Heritage Office, Historic Houses Trust, National Trust, and University of Sydney libraries, State Archive, State Library and Sydney Harbour Foreshore Authority Archives. Public documents, primarily newspaper articles and design plans, were analysed to identify possible differences in motives and to determine the process of implementation of the waterfront redevelopments. It was also important to obtain historical photographs and descriptions to understand how the waterfront had been altered. Sites maps in different time periods have been identified to understand what kind of changes happened on the urban landscape and how the developments affected areas. Newspaper articles and editorials have been examined in order to discover what aspects of the projects reflected the history and heritage. The thematic analysis of the archival data helped determine Darling Harbour is a historically important place as it had represented a focal point for Sydney's industrial growth and the cradle of industrial development in European Australia. It has been found that the development area was designated in order to be transformed to a place for tourist, education, recreational, entertainment, cultural and commercial activities and as a result little evidence remained of its industrial past. This paper aims to discuss the industrial significance of Darling Harbour and to explain the changes on its industrial landscape. What is absent now is the layer of its history that creates the layers of meaning to the place so its historic industrial identity is effectively lost.

Keywords: historical significance, industrial heritage, industrial waterfront, re-development

Procedia PDF Downloads 301

Authors: S. Abdulkadir, I. Y. Moh’d, S. U. Kunya, U. Nuruddeen

Abstract:

The basis of any contract formation between the client and contractor is the budgeted cost and the estimated duration of projects. These variables are paramount important to project's sponsor in a construction projects and in assessing the success or viability of construction projects. Despite the availability of various techniques of cost and time control, many projects failed to achieve their initial estimated cost and time. The paper evaluate the inhibiting factors of cost and time control in Nigerian construction practice and comparing the result with the United Kingdom practice as identified by one researcher. The populations of the study are construction professionals within Bauchi and Gombe state, Nigeria, a judgmental sampling employed in determining the size of respondents. Descriptive statistics used in analyzing the data in SPSS. Design change, project fraud and corruption, financing and payment of completed work found to be common among the top five inhibiting factors of cost and time control in the study area. Furthermore, the result had shown some comprising with slight contrast as in the case of United Kingdom practice. Study recommend the adaptation of mitigation measures developed in the UK prior to assessing its effectiveness and so also developing a mitigating measure for other top factors that are not within the one developed in United Kingdom practice. Also, it recommends a wider assessing comparison on the modify inhibiting factors of cost and time control as revealed by the study to cover almost all part of Nigeria.

Keywords: comparison, cost, inhibiting factor, United Kingdom, time

Procedia PDF Downloads 440

Authors: A. M. Tahsini, S. A. Hosseini

Abstract:

In the present study, the surface temperature history of the adaptor part in a two-stage supersonic launch vehicle is accurately predicted. The full Navier-Stokes equations are used to estimate the aerodynamic heat flux. The one-dimensional heat conduction in solid phase is used to compute the temperature history. The instantaneous surface temperature is used to improve the applied heat flux, to improve the accuracy of the results.

Keywords: aerodynamic heating, heat conduction, numerical simulation, supersonic flight, launch vehicle

Procedia PDF Downloads 452

Authors: N. Kaneva, A. Bojinova, K. Papazova

Abstract:

Thin ZnO films are deposited on glass substrates via sol–gel method and dip-coating. The films are prepared from zinc acetate dehydrate as a starting reagent. After that the as-prepared ZnO sol is aged for different periods (0, 1, 3, 5, 10, 15, and 30 days). Nanocrystalline thin films are deposited from various sols. The effect ZnO sols aging time on the structural and photocatalytic properties of the films is studied. The films surface is studied by Scanning Electron Microscopy. The effect of the aging time of the starting solution is studied inrespect to photocatalytic degradation of Reactive Black 5 (RB5) by UV-vis spectroscopy. The experiments are conducted upon UV-light illumination and in complete darkness. The variation of the absorption spectra shows the degradation of RB5 dissolved in water, as a result of the reaction acurring on the surface of the films, and promoted by UV irradiation. The initial concentrations of dye (5, 10 and 20 ppm) and the effect of the aging time are varied during the experiments. The results show, that the increasing aging time of starting solution with respect to ZnO generally promotes photocatalytic activity. The thin films obtained from ZnO sol, which is aged 30 days have best photocatalytic degradation of the dye (97,22%) in comparison with the freshly prepared ones (65,92%). The samples and photocatalytic experimental results are reproducible. Nevertheless, all films exhibit a substantial activity in both UV light and darkness, which is promising for the development of new ZnO photocatalysts by sol-gel method.

Keywords: ZnO thin films, sol-gel, photocatalysis, aging time

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Mohammad Reza Zamanian

Abstract:

The construction industry has always been recognized as one of the most dangerous available industries, and the statistics of accidents and injuries resulting from it say that the safety category needs more attention and the arrival of up-to-date technologies in this field. Building information modeling (BIM) is one of the relatively new and applicable technologies in Iran, that the necessity of using it is increasingly evident. The main purposes of this research are to evaluate the feasibility of using this technology in the safety sector of construction projects and to evaluate the effectiveness and operationality of its various applications in this sector. These applications were collected and categorized after reviewing past studies and researches then a questionnaire based on Delphi method criteria was presented to 30 experts who were thoroughly familiar with modeling software and safety guidelines. After receiving and exporting the answers to SPSS software, the validity and reliability of the questionnaire were assessed to evaluate the measuring tools. Fuzzy logic is a good way to analyze data because of its flexibility in dealing with ambiguity and uncertainty issues, and the implementation of the Delphi method in the fuzzy environment overcomes the uncertainties in decision making. Therefore, this method was used for data analysis, and the results indicate the usefulness and effectiveness of BIM in projects and improvement of safety status at different stages of construction. Finally, the applications and the sections discussed were ranked in order of priority for efficiency and effectiveness. Safety planning is considered as the most influential part of the safety of BIM among the four sectors discussed, and planning for the installation of protective fences and barriers to prevent falls and site layout planning with a safety approach based on a 3D model are the most important applications of BIM among the 18 applications to improve the safety of construction projects.

Keywords: building information modeling, safety of construction projects, Delphi method, fuzzy logic

Procedia PDF Downloads 167