Search results for: stochastic demand

Authors: Ulas Vural, M. Ergun Okay, E. Mesut Yildiz

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Telecommunication service providers demand accurate and precise prediction of customer churn probabilities to increase the effectiveness of their customer relation services. The large amount of customer data owned by the service providers is suitable for analysis by machine learning methods. In this study, expenditure data of customers are analyzed by using an artificial neural network (ANN). The ANN model is applied to the data of customers with different billing duration. The proposed model successfully predicts the churn probabilities at 83% accuracy for only three months expenditure data and the prediction accuracy increases up to 89% when the nine month data is used. The experiments also show that the accuracy of ANN model increases on an extended feature set with information of the changes on the bill amounts.

Keywords: customer relationship management, churn prediction, telecom industry, deep learning, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Maibigue Nanglet, Arafat Ousman Béchir, Mahamat Hassan Béchir

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The economy of Central African countries is growing very fast, and the demand for energy is increasing every day. As a result, insufficient power generation is one of the major problems slowing down development. This paper explores the factors of degradation of the I-V curve of the PV Generator (GPV) in harsh environments, taking the case of two locals: Mongo and Abeche. Its objective is to quantify the voltage leaks due to the different GPV installation areas; after using the Newton-Raphson numerical method of the solar cell, a survey of several experimental measurement points was made. The results of the simulation in MATLAB/Simulink show a relative power loss factor of 11.8765% on the GPVs installed in Mongo and 8.5463% on those installed in Abeche; these results allow us to say that the supports on which the modules are installed have an average impact of 10.2114% on their efficiency.

Keywords: calculation, degradation, site, GPV, severe environment

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Authors: Kamlesh Shashikant Dave

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The global financial crisis is rooted in the sub-prime crisis in U.S.A. During the boom years, mortgage brokers attracted by the big commission, encouraged buyers with poor credit to accept housing mortgages with little or no down payment and without credit check. A combination of low interest rates and large inflow of foreign funds during the booming years helped the banks to create easy credit conditions for many years. Banks lent money on the assumptions that housing price would continue to rise. Also the real estate bubble encouraged the demand for houses as financial assets .Banks and financial institutions later repackaged these debts with other high risk debts and sold them to worldwide investors creating financial instruments called collateral debt obligations (CDOs). With the rise in interest rate, mortgage payments rose and defaults among the subprime category of borrowers increased accordingly. Through the securitization of mortgage payments, a recession developed in the housing sector and consequently it was transmitted to the entire US economy and rest of the world. The financial credit crisis has moved the US and the global economy into recession. Indian economy has also affected by the spill over effects of the global financial crisis. Great saving habit among people, strong fundamentals, strong conservative and regulatory regime have saved Indian economy from going out of gear, though significant parts of the economy have slowed down. Industrial activity, particularly in the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors decelerated. The service sector too, slow in construction, transport, trade, communication, hotels and restaurants sub sectors. The financial crisis has some adverse impact on the IT sector. Exports had declined in absolute terms in October. Higher inputs costs and dampened demand have dented corporate margins while the uncertainty surrounding the crisis has affected business confidence. To summarize, reckless subprime lending, loose monetary policy of US, expansion of financial derivatives beyond acceptable norms and greed of Wall Street has led to this exceptional global financial and economic crisis. Thus, the global credit crisis of 2008 highlights the need to redesign both the global and domestic financial regulatory systems not only to properly address systematic risk but also to support its proper functioning (i.e financial stability).Such design requires: 1) Well managed financial institutions with effective corporate governance and risk management system 2) Disclosure requirements sufficient to support market discipline. 3)Proper mechanisms for resolving problem institution and 4) Mechanisms to protect financial services consumers in the event of financial institutions failure.

Keywords: FIIs, BSE, sensex, global impact

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Authors: N. Hadjigeorgiou, A. C. Tsalikidou, E. Hristoforou, P. P. Sotiriadis

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During the last few decades, the continuously increasing demand for accurate and reliable magnetic measurements has paved the way for the development of different types of magnetic sensing systems as well as different measurement techniques. Sensor sensitivity and linearity, signal-to-noise ratio, measurement range, cross-talk between sensors in multi-sensor applications are only some of the aspects that have been examined in the past. In this paper, a fully analog closed loop system in order to optimize the performance of AMR sensors has been developed. The operation of the proposed system has been tested using a Helmholtz coil calibration setup in order to control both the amplitude and direction of magnetic field in the vicinity of the AMR sensor. Experimental testing indicated that improved linearity of sensor response, as well as low noise levels can be achieved, when the system is employed.

Keywords: AMR sensor, closed loop, memory effects, chopper, linearity improvement, sensitivity improvement, magnetic noise, electronic noise

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Authors: K. Ighilahriz, M. Taleb Ahmed, R. Maachi

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Oil industries are responsible for most cases of contamination of our ecosystem by oil and heavy metals. They are toxic and considered carcinogenic and dangerous even when they exist in trace amounts. At Algiers refinery, production, transportation, and refining of crude oil generate considerable waste in storage tanks; these residues result from the gravitational settling. The composition of these residues is essentially a mixture of hydrocarbon and lead. We propose in this work the application of electrooxidation treatment for the leachate of the leaden sludge. The effect of pH, current density and the electrolysis time were studied, the effectiveness of the processes is evaluated by measuring the chemical oxygen demand (COD). The dissolution is the best way to mobilize pollutants from leaden mud, so we conducted leaching before starting the electrochemical treatment. The process was carried out in batch mode using graphite anode and a stainless steel cathode. The results clearly demonstrate the compatibility of the technique used with the type of pollution studied. In fact, it allowed COD removal about 80%.

Keywords: electrooxidation, leaching, leaden sludge, oil industry

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Authors: M. M. Sadeghi, S. Vahdani

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Masonry dome structures had been widely used for covering large spans in the past. The seismic assessment of these historical structures is very complicated due to the nonlinear behavior of the material, their rigidness, and special stability configuration. The assessment method based on energy balance concept, as well as the standard pushover analysis, is used to evaluate the effectiveness of these methods in the case of masonry dome structures. The Soltanieh dome building is used as an example to which two methods are applied. The performance points are given from superimposing the capacity, and demand curves in Acceleration Displacement Response Spectra (ADRS) and energy coordination are compared with the nonlinear time history analysis as the exact result. The results show a good agreement between the dynamic analysis and the energy balance method, but standard pushover method does not provide an acceptable estimation.

Keywords: energy balance method, pushover analysis, time history analysis, masonry dome

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Authors: Esther Baldwin

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It is well settled that the use of solitary confinement can cause psychological and physical harm to detainees. For juveniles, who are more susceptible to irreparable harm due to their underdeveloped psyches, the risks are exacerbated. Despite these risks, across the United States juvenile detainees are regularly held in isolation for prolonged periods of time. This essay will examine the broad impact of solitary confinement on juvenile detainees while giving particular focus to the story of Kalief Browder, a juvenile awaiting trial on Rikers Island in New York for a period of three years, nearly two years of which were spent in solitary confinement. Although sadly, his story is not uncommon, Kalief’s story offers a unique perspective in that it provides first-hand insight on the effects of solitary confinement on juveniles. It is our hope that by sharing his story, we will demand better detention practices and policies for juveniles under correctional control in the United States.

Keywords: criminal justice system, juveniles, Kalief browder, solitary confinement

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Authors: Befekadu Urga Wakayo

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Introduction: Bacterial infections represent major human and animal health problems in Ethiopia. In the face of poor antibiotic regulatory mechanisms, development of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) to commonly used drugs has become a growing health and livelihood threat in the country. Monitoring and control of AMR demand close coloration between human and veterinary services as well as other relevant stakeholders. However, risk of AMR transfer from animal to human population’s remains poorly explored in Ethiopia. This systematic research literature review attempted to give an overview on AMR challenges of bovine mastitis bacteria in Ethiopia. Methodology: A web based research literature search and analysis strategy was used. Databases are considered including; PubMed, Google Scholar, Ethiopian Veterinary Association (EVA) and Ethiopian Society of Animal Production (ESAP). The key search terms and phrases were; Ethiopia, dairy, cattle, mastitis, bacteria isolation, antibiotic sensitivity and antimicrobial resistance. Ultimately, 15 research reports were used for the current analysis. Data extraction was performed using a structured Microsoft Excel format. Frequency AMR prevalence (%) was registered directly or calculated from reported values. Statistical analysis was performed on SPSS – 16. Variables were summarized by giving frequencies (n or %), Mean ± SE and demonstrative box plots. One way ANOVA and independent t test were used to evaluate variations in AMR prevalence estimates (Ln transformed). Statistical significance was determined at p < 0.050). Results: AMR in bovine mastitis bacteria was investigated in a total of 592 in vitro antibiotic sensitivity trials involving 12 different mastitis bacteria (including 1126 Gram positive and 77 Gram negative isolates) and 14 antibiotics. Bovine mastitis bacteria exhibited AMR to most of the antibiotics tested. Gentamycin had the lowest average AMR in both Gram positive (2%) and negative (1.8%) bacteria. Gram negative mastitis bacteria showed higher mean in vitro resistance levels to; Erythromycin (72.6%), Tetracycline (56.65%), Amoxicillin (49.6%), Ampicillin (47.6%), Clindamycin (47.2%) and Penicillin (40.6%). Among Gram positive mastitis bacteria higher mean in vitro resistance was observed in; Ampicillin (32.8%), Amoxicillin (32.6%), Penicillin (24.9%), Streptomycin (20.2%), Penicillinase Resistant Penicillin’s (15.4%) and Tetracycline (14.9%). More specifically, S. aurues exhibited high mean AMR against Penicillin (76.3%) and Ampicillin (70.3%) followed by Amoxicillin (45%), Streptomycin (40.6%), Tetracycline (24.5%) and Clindamycin (23.5%). E. coli showed high mean AMR to Erythromycin (78.7%), Tetracycline (51.5%), Ampicillin (49.25%), Amoxicillin (43.3%), Clindamycin (38.4%) and Penicillin (33.8%). Streptococcus spp. demonstrated higher (p =0.005) mean AMR against Kanamycin (> 20%) and full sensitivity (100%) to Clindamycin. Overall, mean Tetracycline (p = 0.013), Gentamycin (p = 0.001), Polymixin (p = 0.034), Erythromycin (p = 0.011) and Ampicillin (p = 0.009) resistance increased from the 2010’s than the 2000’s. Conclusion; the review indicated a rising AMR challenge among bovine mastitis bacteria in Ethiopia. Corresponding, public health implications demand a deeper, integrated investigation.

Keywords: antimicrobial resistance, dairy cattle, Ethiopia, Mastitis bacteria

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Authors: Shishir Kumar, Chhaya Gangwal, Seema Raj

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Public health informatics (PHI) which has seen successful implementation in the developed world, become the buzzword in the developing countries in providing improved healthcare with enhanced access. In rural areas especially, where a huge gap exists between demand and supply of healthcare facilities, PHI is being seen as a major solution. There are factors such as growing network infrastructure and the technological adoption by the health fraternity which provide support to these claims. Public health informatics has opportunities in healthcare by providing opportunities to diagnose patients, provide intra-operative assistance and consultation from a remote site. It also has certain barriers in the awareness, adaptation, network infrastructure, funding and policy related areas. There are certain medico-legal aspects involving all the stakeholders which need to be standardized to enable a working system. This paper aims to analyze the potential and challenges of public health informatics services in rural communities.

Keywords: PHI, e-health, public health, health informatics

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Authors: Aboulkacem El Mehdi

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We develop a theoretical model at the crossroads of labour and urban economics, used for explaining the mechanism through which the duration of home-workplace trips and their monetary costs impact the labour demand and supply in a spatially scattered labour market and how they are impacted by a change in passenger transport infrastructures and services. The spatial disconnection between home and job opportunities is referred to as the spatial mismatch hypothesis (SMH). Its harmful impact on employment has been subject to numerous theoretical propositions. However, all the theoretical models proposed so far are patterned around the American context, which is particular as it is marked by racial discrimination against blacks in the housing and the labour markets. Therefore, it is only natural that most of these models are developed in order to reproduce a steady state characterized by agents carrying out their economic activities in a mono-centric city in which most unskilled jobs being created in the suburbs, far from the Blacks who dwell in the city-centre, generating a high unemployment rates for blacks, while the White population resides in the suburbs and has a low unemployment rate. Our model doesn't rely on any racial discrimination and doesn't aim at reproducing a steady state in which these stylized facts are replicated; it takes the main principle of the SMH -the spatial disconnection between homes and workplaces- as a starting point. One of the innovative aspects of the model consists in dealing with a SMH related issue at an aggregate level. We link the parameters of the passengers transport system to employment in the whole area of a city. We consider here a city that consists of four areas: two of them are residential areas with unemployed workers, the other two host firms looking for labour force. The workers compare the indirect utility of working in each area with the utility of unemployment and choose between submitting an application for the job that generate the highest indirect utility or not submitting. This arbitration takes account of the monetary and the time expenditures generated by the trips between the residency areas and the working areas. Each of these expenditures is clearly and explicitly formulated so that the impact of each of them can be studied separately than the impact of the other. The first findings show that the unemployed workers living in an area benefiting from good transport infrastructures and services have a better chance to prefer activity to unemployment and are more likely to supply a higher 'quantity' of labour than those who live in an area where the transport infrastructures and services are poorer. We also show that the firms located in the most accessible area receive much more applications and are more likely to hire the workers who provide the highest quantity of labour than the firms located in the less accessible area. Currently, we are working on the matching process between firms and job seekers and on how the equilibrium between the labour demand and supply occurs.

Keywords: labour market, passenger transport infrastructure, spatial mismatch hypothesis, urban economics

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Authors: Junlong Shang, Zhengxian Chua, Hoongping Peh, Zhiye Zhao

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Due to scarce land resources in Singapore, it is imperative to increase water storage capacities to meet the increasing demand of water to secure a sustainable development, which can be achieved in the underground by rock caverns. In this paper, a preliminary study on the effects of cavern span, height and radius on the cavern stability is presented to provide a guidance on the cavern construction in the context of Singapore. It is found that the radius of caverns should be around half of the span width (i.e., B/R=2) to reduce vertical displacement at the crown of cavern. The smaller the rock cover, the smaller displacement. The minimum rock thickness should be at least the same as the cavern span to eliminate excessive yielded element. Finally, rock support system is introduced to maintain the profile of caverns.

Keywords: cavern dimension, numerical modelling, sustainable development, underground rock cavern

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Authors: Gabriele Borg, Alexei De Bono, Charlie Abela

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There on a constant rise in the availability of high volumes of data gathered from multiple sources, resulting in an abundance of unprocessed information that can be used to monitor patterns and trends in user behaviour. Similarly, year after year, Malta is also constantly experiencing ongoing population growth and an increase in mobilization demand. This research takes advantage of data which is continuously being sourced and converting it into useful information related to the traffic problem on the Maltese roads. The scope of this paper is to provide a methodology to create a custom dataset (MalTra - Malta Traffic) compiled from multiple participants from various locations across the island to identify the most common routes taken to expose the main areas of activity. This use of big data is seen being used in various technologies and is referred to as ITSs (Intelligent Transportation Systems), which has been concluded that there is significant potential in utilising such sources of data on a nationwide scale.

Keywords: Big Data, vehicular traffic, traffic management, mobile data patterns

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Authors: Chris Thurlbourne

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Due to the continual demand for material to build, and a limit of good environmental material credentials of 'normal' building materials, there is a need to look at new and reconditioned material types - both biogenic and non-biogenic - and a field of research that accompanies this. This research development focuses on biogenic and non-biogenic material engineering and the impact of our environment on new and reconditioned material types. In our building industry and all the industries involved in constructing our built environment, building material types can be broadly categorized into two types, biogenic and non-biogenic material properties. Both play significant roles in shaping our built environment. Regardless of their properties, all material types originate from our earth, whereas many are modified through processing to provide resistance to 'forces of nature', be it rain, wind, sun, gravity, or whatever the local environmental conditions throw at us. Modifications are succumbed to offer benefits in endurance, resistance, malleability in handling (building with), and ergonomic values - in all types of building material. We assume control of all building materials through rigorous quality control specifications and regulations to ensure materials perform under specific constraints. Yet materials confront an external environment that is not controlled with live forces undetermined, and of which materials naturally act and react through weathering, patination and discoloring, promoting natural chemical reactions such as rusting. The purpose of the paper is to present recent research that explores the after-life of specific new and reconditioned biogenic and non-biogenic material types and how the understanding of materials' natural processes of transformation when exposed to the external climate, can inform initial design decisions. With qualities to receive in a transient and contingent manner, ecological relationships between material, the colonizing organisms and resulting performances invite opportunities for new design explorations for the benefit of both the needs of human society and the needs of our natural environment. The research follows designing for the benefit of both and engaging in both biogenic and non-biogenic material engineering whilst embracing the continual demand for colonization - human and environment, and the aptitude of a material to be colonized by one or several groups of living organisms without necessarily undergoing any severe deterioration, but embracing weathering, patination and discoloring, and at the same time establishing new habitat. The research follows iterative prototyping processes where knowledge has been accumulated via explorations of specific material performances, from laboratory to construction mock-ups focusing on the architectural qualities embedded in control of production techniques and facilitating longer-term patinas of material surfaces to extend the aesthetic beyond common judgments. Experiments are therefore focused on how the inherent material qualities drive a design brief toward specific investigations to explore aesthetics induced through production, patinas and colonization obtained over time while exposed and interactions with external climate conditions.

Keywords: biogenic and non-biogenic, natural processes of transformation, colonization, patina

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Authors: Anna Paola Micheli, Carmelo Intrisano, Anna Maria Calce

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This research focused on the capability of health tourism to improve the economic and financial performance of healthcare companies. It is assumed that health tourism companies have better profitability and financial efficiency because they can also count on cross-border demand differently from no health tourism companies. A three-level gap analysis was conducted: the first concerns health tourism companies located in Italy and in the other EU28 states; in the second Italian and EU28, no health tourism companies were compared; the third level is about the Italian system with a comparison between health tourism and no health tourism companies. Findings highlighted that Italian healthcare companies have better profitability performance if compared to European ones, but they present weaknesses in the financial position given the illiquidity and excessive leverage. Furthermore, studying the Italian system, we found that health tourism companies are more profitable than no health tourism companies.

Keywords: financial performance, gap analysis, health tourism, profitability performance, value creation

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Authors: Xuan Tran

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The purpose of this paper is to present a comprehensive dynamic model for pricing strategies in the hotel competition to find a win-win situation for the competitive set. By utilizing the Cobb-Douglas utility model, the study establishes room rates by analyzing the price elasticity of demand across a competitive set of four hotels, with a focus on occupancy rates. To further enhance the analysis, game theory is applied to identify the best response for each competitive party, which illustrates the optimal pricing strategy for each hotel in the competitive landscape. This approach offers valuable insights into how hotels can strategically adjust their room rates in response to market conditions and competitor actions. The primary contributions of this research include as follows: (1) advantages for both individual hotels and the broader competitive hotel market, (2) benefits for hotel management overseeing multiple brands, and (3) positive impacts on the local community.

Keywords: dynamic model, game theory, best response, Cobb-Douglas

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Authors: E. A. Abdel-Hakim

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The corn stemborer Sesamia cretica (Lederer), has been viewed in many parts of the world as a major pest of cultivated maize, graminaceous crops and sugarcane. Its life cycle is comprised of two different phases, one is the growth and developmental phase (non-diapause) and the other is diapause phase which takes place at the last larval instar. Several problems associated with the use of conventional insecticides, have strongly demonstrated the need for applying alternative safe compounds. Prominent among the prototypes of such prospective chemicals are the juvenoids; i.e. the insect (JH) mimics. In fact, the hormonal effect on metabolism has long been viewed as a secondary consequence of its direct action on specific energy-requiring biosynthetic mechanisms. Therefore, the present study was undertaken essentially in a rather systematic fashion as a contribution towards clarifying metabolic and energetic changes taking place during non-diapause wandering larvae as regulated by (JH) mimic. For this purpose, we applied two different doses of JH mimic (Ro 11-0111) in a single (standard) dose of 100µg or in a single dose of 20 µg/g bw in1µl acetone topically at the onset of nondiapause wandering larvae (WL). Energetic data were obtained by indirect calorimetry methods by conversion of respiratory gas exchange volumetric data, as measured manometrically using a Warburg constant respirometer, to caloric units (g-cal/g fw/h). The findings obtained can be given in brief; these treated larvae underwent supernumerary larval moults. However, this potential the wandering larvae proved to possess whereby restoration of larval programming for S. cretica to overcome stresses even at this critical developmental period. The results obtained, particularly with the high dose used, show that 98% wandering larvae were rescued to survive up to one month (vs. 5 days for normal controls), finally the formation of larval-adult intermediates. Also, the solvent controls had resulted in about 22% additional, but stationary moultings. The basal respiratory metabolism (O2 uptake and CO2 output) of the (WL), whether un-treated or larvae not had followed reciprocal U-shaped curves all along of their developmental duration. The lowest points stood nearly to the day of prepupal formation (571±187 µl O2/gfw/h and 553±181 µl CO2/gfw/h) during un-treated in contrast to the larvae treated with JH (210±48 µl O2/gfw/h and 335±81 µl CO2/gfw/h). Un-treated (normal) larvae proved to utilize carbohydrates as the principal source for energy supply; being fully oxidised without sparing any appreciable amount for endergonic conversion to fats. While, the juvenoid-treated larvae and compared with the acetone-treated control equivalents, there existed no distinguishable differences between them; both had been observed utilising carbohydrates as the sole source of energy demand and converting endergonically almost similar percentages to fats. The overall profile, treated and un-treated (WL) utilized carbohydrates as the principal source for energy demand during this stage.

Keywords: juvenile hormone, respiratory metabolism, Sesamia cretica, wandering phase

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Authors: Luca Martignoni, Joseph Nserat, Eric Arand, Marvin Braun

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The increasing application of conversational agents in healthcare and the demand for applications that enable patients to take informed decisions is changing the way patients access healthcare and take decisions. Promising results related to the acceptance of CAs in healthcare have been accomplished. In that regard, understanding how to design CAs in a way that patients trust their recommendations and decisions constitutes an important area of research. Our study examines self-disclosure and transparency as drivers of trust to enhance the medical assistance of CAs for patients. Accordingly, we examined the effects of self-disclosure and transparency on patients trust and service satisfaction by conducting an online experiment with 136 participants. Our results show that the expression of both self-disclosure and conversational agents transparency leads to an increased perception of trust but does not necessarily improve the service satisfaction. Therefore, developers should implement self-disclosure and transparency to create a trustworthy environment.

Keywords: conversational agent, transparency, self-disclosure, healthcare

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Authors: Chanchan Liu

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In the process of urbanization in China, the rapid development of urban construction has been achieved, but a large number of rural buildings still continue the construction mode many years ago. This paper mainly analyzes the rural residential buildings in the hot summer and cold winter regions analyze the active and passive technologies of the buildings. It explored the feasibility of realizing the sustainable development of rural buildings in an economically reasonable range, using mainly passive technologies, innovative building design methods, reducing the buildings’ demand for conventional energy, and supplementing them with renewable energy sources. On this basis, appropriate technology and regional characteristics are proposed to keep the rural architecture retain its characteristics in the development process. It is hoped that this exploration can provide reference and help for the development of rural buildings in the hot summer and cold winter regions.

Keywords: the rural building, active technology, passive technology, sustainable development

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Authors: Takumi Shindo, Koji Okamura

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The first generation of the wide area network was circuit centric network. How the optimal circuit can be signed was the most important issue to get the best performance. This architecture had succeeded for line based telephone system. The second generation was host centric network and Internet based on this architecture has very succeeded world widely. And Internet became as new social infrastructure. Currently the architecture of the network is based on the location of the information. This future network is called Information centric network (ICN). The information-centric network (ICN) has being researched by many projects and different architectures for implementation of ICN have been proposed. The goal of this study is to compare performances of those ICN architectures. In this paper, the authors propose general ICN model which can represent two typical ICN architectures and compare communication performances using request routing. Finally, simulation results are shown. Also, we assume that this network architecture should be adapt to energy on-demand routing.

Keywords: ICN, information centric network, CCN, energy

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Authors: Adjal Yassine, Semmani Amar

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During the last decades, The risk of collision has been increased, especially in high maritime traffic. As the consequence, the demand is required for safety at sea and environmental protection. For this purpose, the consequences prediction of ship collisions is recommended in order to minimize structural failure. additionally, at the design stage of the ship, damage generated during the collision event must be taken into consideration. This structural failure, in some cases, can develop into the progressive collapse of other structural elements and generate catastrophic consequences. The present study investigates the progressive collapse of ships damaged by collisions using the Non -linear finite element method. The failure criteria are taken into account. The impacted area has a refined mesh in order to have more reliable results. Finally, a parametric study was conducted in this study to highlight the effect of the ship's speed, as well as the different impacted areas of double-bottom ships.

Keywords: collsion, strucural failure, ship, finite element analysis

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Authors: Ju-Na Hwang, Min-Hae Park, Kee-Joe Lim

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Many studies have been conducted on DC transmission. Of power apparatus for DC transmission, High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) cable systems are being evaluated because of the increase in power demand and transmission distance. Therefore, dc insulation characteristics of Liquid Silicone Rubber (LSR), which has various advantages such as short curing time and the ease of maintenance, were investigated to assess its performance as a HVDC insulation material for cable joints. The electrical performance of LSR added to Nano-Aluminum Trihydrate (ATH) was confirmed by measurements of the breakdown strength and electrical conductivity. In addition, field emission scanning electron microscope (FE-SEM) was used as a means of confirmation of nano-filler dispersion state. The LSR nano-composite was prepared by compounding LSR filled nano-sized ATH filler. The DC insulation properties of LSR added to nano-sized ATH fillers were found to be superior to those of the LSR without filler.

Keywords: liquid silicone rubber, nano-composite, HVDC insulation, cable joints

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Authors: Amjad Ali Khan, Muhammad Ishaq Saqi, Kashif Ali

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The focus of hydrocarbon exploration in Pakistan has been primarily on conventional hydrocarbon resources. Directorate General Petroleum Concessions (DGPC) has taken the lead on the assessment of indigenous unconventional oil and gas resources, which has resulted in a ‘Shale Oil/Gas Resource Assessment Study’ conducted with the help of USAID. This was critically required in the energy-starved Pakistan, where the gap between indigenous oil & gas production and demand continues to widen for a long time. Exploration & exploitation of indigenous unconventional resources of Pakistan have become vital to meet our energy demand and reduction of oil and gas import bill of the country. This study has attempted to bridge a critical gap in geological information about the potential of shale gas & oil in Pakistan in the four formations, i.e., Sembar, Lower Goru, Ranikot and Ghazij in the Middle and Lower Indus Basins, which were selected for the study as for resource assessment for shale gas & oil. The primary objective of the study was to estimate and establish shale oil/gas resource assessment of the study area by carrying out extensive geological analysis of exploration, appraisal and development wells drilled in the Middle and Lower Indus Basins, along with identification of fairway(s) and sweet spots in the study area. The Study covers the Lower parts of the Middle Indus basins located in Sindh, southern Punjab & eastern parts of the Baluchistan provinces, with a total sedimentary area of 271,795 km2. Initially, 1611 wells were reviewed, including 1324 wells drilled through different shale formations. Based on the availability of required technical data, a detailed petrophysical analysis of 124 wells (21 Confidential & 103 in the public domain) has been conducted for the shale gas/oil potential of the above-referred formations. The core & cuttings samples of 32 wells and 33 geochemical reports of prospective Shale Formations were available, which were analyzed to calibrate the results of petrophysical analysis with petrographic/ laboratory analyses to increase the credibility of the Shale Gas Resource assessment. This study has identified the most prospective intervals, mainly in Sembar and Lower Goru Formations, for shale gas/oil exploration in the Middle and Lower Indus Basins of Pakistan. The study recommends seven (07) sweet spots for undertaking pilot projects, which will enable to evaluate of the actual production capability and production sustainability of shale oil/gas reservoirs of Pakistan for formulating future strategies to explore and exploit shale/oil resources of Pakistan including fiscal incentives required for developing shale oil/gas resources of Pakistan. Some E&P Companies are being persuaded to make a consortium for undertaking pilot projects that have shown their willingness to participate in the pilot project at appropriate times. The location for undertaking the pilot project has been finalized as a result of a series of technical sessions by geoscientists of the potential consortium members after the review and evaluation of available studies.

Keywords: conventional resources, petrographic analysis, petrophysical analysis, unconventional resources, shale gas & oil, sweet spots

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Authors: Keivan Karimlou, Nemat Hassani, Abdollah Rashidi Mehrabadi

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Climate change, industrial bloom, population growth and mismanagement are the most important factors that lead to water shortages around the world. Water shortages often lead to forced immigration, war, and thirst and hunger, especially in developing countries. One of the simplest solutions to solve the water shortage issues around the world is transferring water from one watershed to another; however it may not be a suitable solution. Water managers around the world use supply and demand management methods to decrease the incidence of water shortage in a sustainable manner. But as a matter of economic constraints, they must define a method to select the best possible action to reduce and limit water shortages. The following paper recognizes different kinds of criteria to select the best possible policy for reducing water shortage in mega cities by examining a comprehensive literature review.

Keywords: criteria, management, shortage, sustainable, water

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Authors: Jooyoung Park, Junkyeong Kim, Aoqi Zhang, Seunghee Park

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Non-destructive testing on cable is in great demand due to safety accidents at sites where many equipments using cables are installed. In this paper, the quantitative change of the obtained signal was analyzed using a magnetic flux leakage (MFL) method. A two-dimensional simulation was conducted with a FEM model replicating real elevator cables. The simulation data were compared for three parameters (depth of defect, width of defect and inspection velocity). Then, an experiment on same conditions was carried out to verify the results of the simulation. Signals obtained from both the simulation and the experiment were transformed to characterize the properties of the damage. Throughout the results, a cable damage detection based on an MFL method was confirmed to be feasible. In further study, it is expected that the MFL signals of an entire specimen will be gained and visualized as well.

Keywords: magnetic flux leakage (mfl), cable damage detection, non-destructive testing, numerical simulation

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Authors: Coriolano Salvini

Abstract:

The increasing utilization of renewable energy sources for electric power production calls for the introduction of energy storage systems to match the electric demand along the time. Although many countries are pursuing as a final goal a “decarbonized” electrical system, in the next decades the traditional fossil fuel fed power plant still will play a relevant role in fulfilling the electric demand. Presently, such plants provide grid ancillary services (frequency control, grid balance, reserve, etc.) by adapting the output power to the grid requirements. An interesting option is represented by the possibility to use traditional plants to improve the grid storage capabilities. The present paper is addressed to small-medium size systems suited for distributed energy storage. The proposed Energy Storage System (ESS) is based on a Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) integrated into a Gas-Steam Combined Cycle (GSCC) or a Gas Turbine based CHP plants. The systems can be incorporated in an ex novo built plant or added to an already existing one. To avoid any geological restriction related to the availability of natural compressed air reservoirs, artificial storage is addressed. During the charging phase, electric power is absorbed from the grid by an electric driven intercooled/aftercooled compressor. In the course of the discharge phase, the compressed stored air is sent to a heat transfer device fed by hot gas taken upstream the Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG) and subsequently expanded for power production. To maximize the output power, a staged reheated expansion process is adopted. The specific power production related to the kilogram per second of exhaust gas used to heat the stored air is two/three times larger than that achieved if the gas were used to produce steam in the HRSG. As a result, a relevant power augmentation is attained with respect to normal GSCC plant operations without additional use of fuel. Therefore, the excess of output power can be considered “fuel free” and the storage system can be compared to “pure” ESSs such as electrochemical, pumped hydro or adiabatic CAES. Representative cases featured by different power absorption, production capability, and storage capacity have been taken into consideration. For each case, a technical optimization aimed at maximizing the storage efficiency has been carried out. On the basis of the resulting storage pressure and volume, number of compression and expansion stages, air heater arrangement and process quantities found for each case, a cost estimation of the storage systems has been performed. Storage efficiencies from 0.6 to 0.7 have been assessed. Capital costs in the range of 400-800 €/kW and 500-1000 €/kWh have been estimated. Such figures are similar or lower to those featuring alternative storage technologies.

Keywords: artificial air storage reservoir, compressed air energy storage (CAES), gas steam combined cycle (GSCC), techno-economic analysis

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Authors: B. O. Adegoke, B. O. Ola, D. T. Ademiluyi

Abstract:

This paper examines the use of computer and its related health hazard among computer users in South-Western zone of Nigeria. Two hundred and eighteen (218) computer users constituted the population used to evaluate association between posture, extensive computer use and related health hazard. The instruments for the study are a questionnaire on demographics, lifestyle, body features and work ability index while mean rating, standard deviation and t test were used for data analysis. Identified health related hazard include damages to the eyesight, bad posture, arthritis, musculoskeletal disorders, headache, stress and so on. The results showed that factors such as work demand, posture, closeness to computer screen and excessive working hours on computers constitute health hazards in both old and young computer users of various gender. It is therefore recommended that total number of hours spent with computer should be monitored and controlled.

Keywords: computer-related health hazard, musculoskeletal disorders, computer usage, work ability index

Procedia PDF Downloads 489

Authors: Gulsen Tozsin, Fatma Bakir, Cemil Acar, Ercument Koc

Abstract:

Kurtbogazi Dam has gained special meaning for Ankara, Turkey for the last decade due to the rapid depletion of nearby resources of drinking water. In this study, the results of the analyses of Kurtbogazi Dam outlet water and the rivers flowing into the Kurtbogazi Dam were discussed for the period of last five years between 2008 and 2012. The quality of these surface water resources were evaluated in terms of pH, temperature, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5), nitrate, phosphate and chlorine. They were classified according to the Council Directive (75/440/EEC). Moreover, the properties of these surface waters were assessed to determine the quality of water for drinking and irrigation purposes using Piper, US Salinity Laboratory and Wilcox diagrams. The results revealed that the quality of all the investigated water sources are generally at satisfactory level as surface water except for Pazar Stream in terms of ortho-phosphate and BOD5 concentration for 2008.

Keywords: Kurtbogazi dam, water quality assessment, Ankara water, water supply

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Anésio de Leles Ferreira Filho, Wesley Rodrigues de Oliveira, Jéssica Santoro Gonçalves, Jorge Andrés Cormane Angarita

Abstract:

The increase in electric power demand in face of environmental issues has intensified the participation of renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics, in the energy matrix of various countries. Due to their operational characteristics, they can generate time-varying harmonic and inter-harmonic distortions. For this reason, the application of methods of measurement based on traditional Fourier analysis, as proposed by IEC 61000-4-7, can provide inaccurate results. Considering the aspects mentioned herein, came the idea of the development of this work which aims to present the results of a comparative evaluation between a methodology arising from the combination of the Prony method with the Kalman filter and another method based on the IEC 61000-4-30 and IEC 61000-4-7 standards. Employed in this study were synthetic signals and data acquired through measurements in a 50kWp photovoltaic installation.

Keywords: harmonics, inter-harmonics, iec61000-4-7, parametric estimators, photovoltaic generation

Procedia PDF Downloads 487

Authors: Faizul Azly Abd Dzubir, Muhammad F. Othman

Abstract:

Conventional structural health monitoring approach for mechanical equipment uses inspection data from Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) during plant shut down window and fitness for service evaluation to estimate the integrity of the equipment that is prone to crack damage. Yet, this forecast is fraught with uncertainty because it is often based on assumptions of future operational parameters, and the prediction is not continuous or online. Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Technology (ADaPT) uses Acoustic Emission (AE) technology and a stochastic prognostic model to provide real-time monitoring and prediction of mechanical defects or cracks. The forecast can help the plant authority handle their cracked equipment before it ruptures, causing an unscheduled shutdown of the facility. The ADaPT employs process historical data trending, finite element analysis, fitness for service, and probabilistic statistical analysis to develop a prediction model for crack initiation and growth due to mechanical damage. The prediction model is combined with live equipment operating data for real-time prediction of the remaining life span owing to fracture. ADaPT was devised at a hot combined feed exchanger (HCFE) that had suffered creep crack damage. The ADaPT tool predicts the initiation of a crack at the top weldment area by April 2019. During the shutdown window in April 2019, a crack was discovered and repaired. Furthermore, ADaPT successfully advised the plant owner to run at full capacity and improve output by up to 7% by April 2019. ADaPT was also used on a coke drum that had extensive fatigue cracking. The initial cracks are declared safe with ADaPT, with remaining crack lifetimes extended another five (5) months, just in time for another planned facility downtime to execute repair. The prediction model, when combined with plant information data, allows plant operators to continuously monitor crack propagation caused by mechanical damage for improved maintenance planning and to avoid costly shutdowns to repair immediately.

Keywords: mechanical damage, cracks, continuous monitoring tool, remaining life, acoustic emission, prognostic model

Procedia PDF Downloads 77

Authors: N. F. Jamaluddin, N. A. H. Aizam

Abstract:

This paper explains the educational timetabling problem, a type of scheduling problem that is considered as one of the most challenging problem in optimization and operational research. The university examination timetabling problem (UETP), which involves assigning a set number of exams into a set number of timeslots whilst fulfilling all required conditions, has been widely investigated. The limitation of available timeslots and resources with the increasing number of examinations are the main reasons in the difficulty of solving this problem. Dynamical change in the examination scheduling system adds up the complication particularly in coping up with the demand and new requirements by the communities. Our objective is to investigate these demands and requirements with subjects taken from Universiti Malaysia Terengganu (UMT), through questionnaires. Integer linear programming model which reflects the preferences obtained to produce an effective examination timetabling was formed.

Keywords: demands, educational timetabling, integer linear programming, scheduling, university examination timetabling problem (UETP)

Procedia PDF Downloads 337