Search results for: option pricing theory
Commenced in January 2007
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Paper Count: 5606

Search results for: option pricing theory

4256 Border Security: Implementing the “Memory Effect” Theory in Irregular Migration

Authors: Iliuta Cumpanasu, Veronica Oana Cumpanasu

Abstract:

This paper focuses on studying the conjunction between the new emerged theory of “Memory Effect” in Irregular Migration and Related Criminality and the notion of securitization, and its impact on border management, bringing about a scientific advancement in the field by identifying the patterns corresponding to the linkage of the two concepts, for the first time, and developing a theoretical explanation, with respect to the effects of the non-military threats on border security. Over recent years, irregular migration has experienced a significant increase worldwide. The U.N.'s refugee agency reports that the number of displaced people is at its highest ever - surpassing even post-World War II numbers when the world was struggling to come to terms with the most devastating event in history. This is also the fresh reality within the core studied coordinate, the Balkan Route of Irregular Migration, which starts from Asia and Africa and continues to Turkey, Greece, North Macedonia or Bulgaria, Serbia, and ends in Romania, where thousands of migrants find themselves in an irregular situation concerning their entry to the European Union, with its important consequences concerning the related criminality. The data from the past six years was collected by making use of semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of migration and desk research within some organisations involved in border security, pursuing the gathering of genuine insights from the aforementioned field, which was constantly addressed the existing literature and subsequently subjected to the mixed methods of analysis, including the use of the Vector Auto-Regression estimates model. Thereafter, the analysis of the data followed the processes and outcomes in Grounded Theory, and a new Substantive Theory emerged, explaining how the phenomena of irregular migration and cross-border criminality are the decisive impetus for implementing the concept of securitization in border management by using the proposed pattern. The findings of the study are therefore able to capture an area that has not yet benefitted from a comprehensive approach in the scientific community, such as the seasonality, stationarity, dynamics, predictions, or the pull and push factors in Irregular Migration, also highlighting how the recent ‘Pandemic’ interfered with border security. Therefore, the research uses an inductive revelatory theoretical approach which aims at offering a new theory in order to explain a phenomenon, triggering a practically handy contribution for the scientific community, research institutes or Academia and also usefulness to organizational practitioners in the field, among which UN, IOM, UNHCR, Frontex, Interpol, Europol, or national agencies specialized in border security. The scientific outcomes of this study were validated on June 30, 2021, when the author defended his dissertation for the European Joint Master’s in Strategic Border Management, a two years prestigious program supported by the European Commission and Frontex Agency and a Consortium of six European Universities and is currently one of the research objectives of his pending PhD research at the West University Timisoara.

Keywords: migration, border, security, memory effect

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4255 Integrative Omics-Portrayal Disentangles Molecular Heterogeneity and Progression Mechanisms of Cancer

Authors: Binder Hans

Abstract:

Cancer is no longer seen as solely a genetic disease where genetic defects such as mutations and copy number variations affect gene regulation and eventually lead to aberrant cell functioning which can be monitored by transcriptome analysis. It has become obvious that epigenetic alterations represent a further important layer of (de-)regulation of gene activity. For example, aberrant DNA methylation is a hallmark of many cancer types, and methylation patterns were successfully used to subtype cancer heterogeneity. Hence, unraveling the interplay between different omics levels such as genome, transcriptome and epigenome is inevitable for a mechanistic understanding of molecular deregulation causing complex diseases such as cancer. This objective requires powerful downstream integrative bioinformatics methods as an essential prerequisite to discover the whole genome mutational, transcriptome and epigenome landscapes of cancer specimen and to discover cancer genesis, progression and heterogeneity. Basic challenges and tasks arise ‘beyond sequencing’ because of the big size of the data, their complexity, the need to search for hidden structures in the data, for knowledge mining to discover biological function and also systems biology conceptual models to deduce developmental interrelations between different cancer states. These tasks are tightly related to cancer biology as an (epi-)genetic disease giving rise to aberrant genomic regulation under micro-environmental control and clonal evolution which leads to heterogeneous cellular states. Machine learning algorithms such as self organizing maps (SOM) represent one interesting option to tackle these bioinformatics tasks. The SOMmethod enables recognizing complex patterns in large-scale data generated by highthroughput omics technologies. It portrays molecular phenotypes by generating individualized, easy to interpret images of the data landscape in combination with comprehensive analysis options. Our image-based, reductionist machine learning methods provide one interesting perspective how to deal with massive data in the discovery of complex diseases, gliomas, melanomas and colon cancer on molecular level. As an important new challenge, we address the combined portrayal of different omics data such as genome-wide genomic, transcriptomic and methylomic ones. The integrative-omics portrayal approach is based on the joint training of the data and it provides separate personalized data portraits for each patient and data type which can be analyzed by visual inspection as one option. The new method enables an integrative genome-wide view on the omics data types and the underlying regulatory modes. It is applied to high and low-grade gliomas and to melanomas where it disentangles transversal and longitudinal molecular heterogeneity in terms of distinct molecular subtypes and progression paths with prognostic impact.

Keywords: integrative bioinformatics, machine learning, molecular mechanisms of cancer, gliomas and melanomas

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4254 Explanation of the Electron Transfer Mechanism from β-Carotene to N-Pentyl Peroxyl Radical by Density Functional Theory Method

Authors: E. Esra Kasapbaşı, Büşra Yıldırım

Abstract:

Weak oxidizing radicals, such as alkyl peroxyl derivatives, react with carotenoids through hydrogen atom transfer to form neutral carotenoid radicals. Using the DFT method, it has been observed that s-cis-β-carotene is more stable than all-transforms. In the context of this study, an attempt is made to explain the reaction mechanism of the isomers of β-carotene, which exhibits antioxidant properties, with n-pentyl peroxide, one of the alkyl peroxyl molecules, using the Density Functional Theory (DFT) method. The cis and transforms of β-carotene are used in the study to determine which form is more reactive. For this purpose, Natural Bond Orbital (NBO) charges of all optimized structures are calculated, and electron transfer is determined by examining electron transitions between Highest Occupied Molecular Orbital (HOMO) and Lowest Unoccupied Molecular Orbital (LUMO). Additionally, the radical character and reaction mechanism of β-carotene in a radical environment are attempted to be explained based on the calculations. The theoretical inclination of whether β-carotene in cis or transforms is more active in reaction is also discussed. All these calculations are performed in the gas phase using the Integral Equation Formalism Polarizable Continuum Model IEFPCM method with dichloromethane as the solvent.

Keywords: β-carotene, n-pentyl peroxyl radical, DFT, TD-DFT

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4253 The Application and Relevance of Costing Techniques in Service Oriented Business Organisations: A Review of the Activity-Based Costing (ABC) Technique

Authors: Udeh Nneka Evelyn

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The shortcomings of traditional costing system, in terms of validity, accuracy, consistency and relevance increased the need for modern management accounting system. ABC (Activity-Based Costing) can be used as a modern tool for planning, control and decision making for management. Past studies on activity-based costing (ABC) system have focused on manufacturing firms thereby making the studies on service firms scanty to some extent. This paper reviewed the application and relevance of activity-based costing techniques in service oriented business organisations by employing a qualitative research method which relied heavily on literature review of past and current relevant articles focusing on activity-based costing (ABC). Findings suggest that ABC is not only appropriate for use in a manufacturing environment; it is also most appropriate for service organizations such as financial institutions, the healthcare industry, and government organizations. In fact, some banking and financial institutions have been applying the concept for years under other names. One of them is unit costing, which is used to calculate the cost of banking services by determining the cost and consumption of each unit of output of functions required to deliver the service. ABC in very basic terms may provide very good payback for businesses. Some of the benefits that relate directly to the financial services industry are: Identification of the most profitable customers; more accurate product and service pricing; increase product profitability; well-organized process costs.

Keywords: profitability, activity-based costing (ABC), management accounting, manufacture

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4252 Micro-Hydrokinetic for Remote Rural Electrification

Authors: S. P. Koko, K. Kusakana, H. J. Vermaak

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Standalone micro-hydrokinetic river (MHR) system is one of the promising technologies to be used for remote rural electrification. It simply requires the flow of water instead of elevation or head, leading to expensive civil works. This paper demonstrates an economic benefit offered by a standalone MHR system when compared to the commonly used standalone systems such as solar, wind and diesel generator (DG) at the selected study site in Kwazulu Natal. Wind speed and solar radiation data of the selected rural site have been taken from national aeronautics and space administration (NASA) surface meteorology database. The hybrid optimization model for electric renewable (HOMER) software was used to determine the most feasible solution when using MHR, solar, wind or DG system to supply 5 rural houses. MHR system proved to be the best cost-effective option to consider at the study site due to its low cost of energy (COE) and low net present cost (NPC).

Keywords: economic analysis, micro-hydrokinetic, rural-electrification, cost of energy (COE), net present cost (NPC)

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4251 Valorization of Residues from Forest Industry for the Generation of Energy

Authors: M. A. Amezcua-Allieri, E. Torres, J. A. Zermeño Eguía-Lis, M. Magdaleno, L. A. Melgarejo, E. Palmerín, A. Rosas, D. López, J. Aburto

Abstract:

The use of biomass to produce renewable energy is one of the forms that can be used to reduce the impact of energy production. Like any other energy resource, there are limitations for biomass use, and it must compete not only with fossil fuels but also with other renewable energy sources such as solar or wind energy. Combustion is currently the most efficient and widely used waste-to-energy process, in the areas where direct use of biomass is possible, without the need to make large transfers of raw material. Many industrial facilities can use agricultural or forestry waste, straw, chips, bagasse, etc. in their thermal systems without making major transformations or adjustments in the feeding to the ovens, making this waste an attractive and cost-effective option in terms of availability, access, and costs. In spite of the facilities and benefits, the environmental reasons (emission of gases and particulate material) are decisive for its use for energy purpose. This paper describes a valorization of residues from forest industry to generate energy, using a case study.

Keywords: bioenergy, forest waste, life-cycle assessment, waste-to-energy, electricity

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4250 Tribological Characterization of Composites Based on Epoxy Resin Filled with Tailings of Scheelite

Authors: Clarissa D. M. O. Guimaraes, Mariza C. M. Fernandes, Francisco R. V. Diaz, Juliana R. Souza

Abstract:

The use of mineral fillers in the preparation of organic matrix composites can be an efficient alternative in minimizing the environmental damage generated in passive mineral beneficiation processes. In addition, it may represent a new material option for wind, construction, and aeronautical industries, for example. In this sense, epoxy resin composites with Tailings of Scheelite (TS) were developed. The composites were manufactured with 5%, 10% and 20% of TS in volume percentage, homogenized by mechanical mixing and molded in a silicon mold. In order to make the tribological evaluation, pin on disk tests were performed to analyze coefficient of friction and wear. The wear mechanisms were identified by SEM (scanning electron microscope) images. The coefficient of friction had a tendency to decrease with increasing amount of filler. The wear tends to increase with increasing amount of filler, although it exhibits a similar wear behavior. The results suggest characteristics that are potential used in many tribological applications.

Keywords: composites, mineral filler, tailings of scheelite, tribology

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4249 A Review of Literature on Theories of Construction Accident Causation Models

Authors: Samuel Opeyemi Williams, Razali Bin Adul Hamid, M. S. Misnan, Taki Eddine Seghier, D. I. Ajayi

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Construction sites are characterized with occupational risks. Review of literature on construction accidents reveals that a lot of theories have been propounded over the years by different theorists, coupled with multifarious models developed by different proponents at different times. Accidents are unplanned events that are prominent in construction sites, involving materials, objects and people with attendant damages, loses and injuries. Models were developed to investigate the causations of accident with the aim of preventing its occurrence. Though, some of these theories were criticized, most especially, the Heinrich Domino theory, being mostly faulted for placing much blame on operatives rather than the management. The purpose of this paper is to unravel the significant construction accident causation theories and models for the benefit of understanding of the theories, and consequently enabling construction stakeholders identify the possible potential hazards on construction sites, as all stakeholders have significant roles to play in preventing accident. Accidents are preventable; hence, understanding the risk factors of accident and the causation theories paves way for its prevention. However, findings reveal that still some gaps missing in the existing models, while it is recommended that further research can be made in order to develop more models in order to maintain zero accident on construction sites.

Keywords: domino theory, construction site, site safety, accident causation model

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4248 A Conceptual Study for Investigating the Creation of Energy and Understanding the Properties of Nothing

Authors: Mahmoud Reza Hosseini

Abstract:

The universe is in a continuous expansion process, resulting in the reduction of its density and temperature. Also, by extrapolating back from its current state, the universe at its early times is studied, known as the big bang theory. According to this theory, moments after creation, the universe was an extremely hot and dense environment. However, its rapid expansion due to nuclear fusion led to a reduction in its temperature and density. This is evidenced through the cosmic microwave background and the universe structure at a large scale. However, extrapolating back further from this early state reaches singularity, which cannot be explained by modern physics, and the big bang theory is no longer valid. In addition, one can expect a nonuniform energy distribution across the universe from a sudden expansion. However, highly accurate measurements reveal an equal temperature mapping across the universe, which is contradictory to the big bang principles. To resolve this issue, it is believed that cosmic inflation occurred at the very early stages of the birth of the universe. According to the cosmic inflation theory, the elements which formed the universe underwent a phase of exponential growth due to the existence of a large cosmological constant. The inflation phase allows the uniform distribution of energy so that an equal maximum temperature can be achieved across the early universe. Also, the evidence of quantum fluctuations of this stage provides a means for studying the types of imperfections the universe would begin with. Although well-established theories such as cosmic inflation and the big bang together provide a comprehensive picture of the early universe and how it evolved into its current state, they are unable to address the singularity paradox at the time of universe creation. Therefore, a practical model capable of describing how the universe was initiated is needed. This research series aims at addressing the singularity issue by introducing a state of energy called a "neutral state," possessing an energy level that is referred to as the "base energy." The governing principles of base energy are discussed in detail in our second paper in the series "A Conceptual Study for Addressing the Singularity of the Emerging Universe," which is discussed in detail. To establish a complete picture, the origin of the base energy should be identified and studied. In this research paper, the mechanism which led to the emergence of this natural state and its corresponding base energy is proposed. In addition, the effect of the base energy in the space-time fabric is discussed. Finally, the possible role of the base energy in quantization and energy exchange is investigated. Therefore, the proposed concept in this research series provides a road map for enhancing our understating of the universe's creation from nothing and its evolution and discusses the possibility of base energy as one of the main building blocks of this universe.

Keywords: big bang, cosmic inflation, birth of universe, energy creation, universe evolution

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4247 A Survey and Theory of the Effects of Various Hamlet Videos on Viewers’ Brains

Authors: Mark Pizzato

Abstract:

How do ideas, images, and emotions in stage-plays and videos affect us? Do they evoke a greater awareness (or cognitive reappraisal of emotions) through possible shifts between left-cortical, right-cortical, and subcortical networks? To address these questions, this presentation summarizes the research of various neuroscientists, especially Bernard Baars and others involved in Global Workspace Theory, Matthew Lieberman in social neuroscience, Iain McGilchrist on left and right cortical functions, and Jaak Panksepp on the subcortical circuits of primal emotions. Through such research, this presentation offers an ‘inner theatre’ model of the brain, regarding major hubs of neural networks and our animal ancestry. It also considers recent experiments, by Mario Beauregard, on the cognitive reappraisal of sad, erotic, and aversive film clips. Finally, it applies the inner-theatre model and related research to survey results of theatre students who read and then watched the ‘To be or not to be’ speech in 8 different video versions (from stage and screen productions) of William Shakespeare’s Hamlet. Findings show that students become aware of left-cortical, right-cortical, and subcortical brain functions—and shifts between them—through staging and movie-making choices in each of the different videos.

Keywords: cognitive reappraisal, Hamlet, neuroscience, Shakespeare, theatre

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4246 Calculating Non-Unique Sliding Modes for Switched Dynamical Systems

Authors: Eugene Stepanov, Arkadi Ponossov

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Ordinary differential equations with switching nonlinearities constitute a very useful tool in many applications. The solutions of such equations can usually be calculated analytically if they cross the discontinuities transversally. Otherwise, one has trajectories that slides along the discontinuity, and the calculations become less straightforward in this case. For instance, one of the problems one faces is non-uniqueness of the sliding modes. In the presentation, it is proposed to apply the theory of hybrid dynamical systems to calculate the solutions that are ‘hidden’ in the discontinuities. Roughly, one equips the underlying switched system with an explicitly designed discrete dynamical system (‘automaton’), which governs the dynamics of the switched system. This construction ‘splits’ the dynamics, which, as it is shown in the presentation, gives uniqueness of the resulting hybrid trajectories and at the same time provides explicit formulae for them. Projecting the hybrid trajectories back onto the original continuous system explains non-uniqueness of its trajectories. The automaton is designed with the help of the attractors of the specially constructed adjoint dynamical system. Several examples are provided in the presentation, which supports the efficiency of the suggested scheme. The method can be of interest in control theory, gene regulatory networks, neural field models and other fields, where switched dynamics is a part of the analysis.

Keywords: hybrid dynamical systems, singular perturbation analysis, sliding modes, switched dynamics

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4245 Early Stage Hydration of Wollastonite: Kinetic Aspects of the Metal-Proton Exchange Reaction

Authors: Nicolas Giraudo, Peter Thissen

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In this paper we bring up new aspects of the metal proton exchange reaction (MPER, also called early stage hydration): (1) its dependence of the number of protons consumed by the preferential exchanged cations on the pH value applied at the water/wollastonite interface and (2) strong anisotropic characteristics detected in atomic force microscopy (AFM) and low energy ion scattering spectroscopy measurements (LEIS). First we apply density functional theory (DFT) calculations to compare the kinetics of the reaction on different wollastonite surfaces, and combine it with ab initio thermodynamics to set up a model describing (1) the release of Ca in exchange with H coming from the water/wollastonite interface, (2) the dependence of the MPER on the chemical potential of protons. In the second part of the paper we carried out in-situ AFM and inductive coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES) measurements in order to evaluate the predicted values. While a good agreement is found in the basic and neutral regime (pH values from 14-4), an increasing mismatch appears in the acidic regime (pH value lower 4). This is finally explained by non-equilibrium etching, dominating over the MPER in the very acidic regime.

Keywords: anisotropy, calcium silicate, cement, density functional theory, hydration

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4244 The Reuse of Household Waste in Natural Dyeing as a Tool for Upcycling

Authors: Juliana Bastos dos Santos, Francisca Dantas Mendes, Abdul Jabbar Mohammad Khatri, Adam Abdul Jabbar Khatri

Abstract:

This research aims to describe the experimentation of color extraction from household waste, for the application of the natural vegetable dyeing technique, as a more sustainable option for the upcycling process. Based on the research of the case study, this article intends to record the process of collecting the materials, extracting the colors and their applicability. The study aims to deepen the knowledge about possible alternatives that generate less impact on the environment throughout the process of plant stamping and, also, to spread the concepts of sustainability in fashion. Therefore, this content becomes relevant for valuing an artisanal production process, reconnecting with ancestral knowledge. This article also intends to serve as a record of ancestral artisanal processes, based on the indigenous and African matrices that are pillars of Brazilian culture.

Keywords: natural dyeing, sustainability, organic residue, fashion, reuse

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4243 Optimization of Feeder Bus Routes at Urban Rail Transit Stations Based on Link Growth Probability

Authors: Yu Song, Yuefei Jin

Abstract:

Urban public transportation can be integrated when there is an efficient connection between urban rail lines, however, there are currently no effective or quick solutions being investigated for this connection. This paper analyzes the space-time distribution and travel demand of passenger connection travel based on taxi track data and data from the road network, excavates potential bus connection stations based on potential connection demand data, and introduces the link growth probability model in the complex network to solve the basic connection bus lines in order to ascertain the direction of the bus lines that are the most connected given the demand characteristics. Then, a tree view exhaustive approach based on constraints is suggested based on graph theory, which can hasten the convergence of findings while doing chain calculations. This study uses WEI QU NAN Station, the Xi'an Metro Line 2 terminal station in Shaanxi Province, as an illustration, to evaluate the model's and the solution method's efficacy. According to the findings, 153 prospective stations have been dug up in total, the feeder bus network for the entire line has been laid out, and the best route adjustment strategy has been found.

Keywords: feeder bus, route optimization, link growth probability, the graph theory

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4242 Application of the Micropolar Beam Theory for the Construction of the Discrete-Continual Model of Carbon Nanotubes

Authors: Samvel H. Sargsyan

Abstract:

Together with the study of electron-optical properties of nanostructures and proceeding from experiment-based data, the study of the mechanical properties of nanostructures has become quite actual. For the study of the mechanical properties of fullerene, carbon nanotubes, graphene and other nanostructures one of the crucial issues is the construction of their adequate mathematical models. Among all mathematical models of graphene or carbon nano-tubes, this so-called discrete-continuous model is specifically important. It substitutes the interactions between atoms by elastic beams or springs. The present paper demonstrates the construction of the discrete-continual beam model for carbon nanotubes or graphene, where the micropolar beam model based on the theory of moment elasticity is accepted. With the account of the energy balance principle, the elastic moment constants for the beam model, expressed by the physical and geometrical parameters of carbon nanotube or graphene, are determined. By switching from discrete-continual beam model to the continual, the models of micropolar elastic cylindrical shell and micropolar elastic plate are confirmed as continual models for carbon nanotube and graphene respectively.

Keywords: carbon nanotube, discrete-continual, elastic, graphene, micropolar, plate, shell

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4241 The Interplay between Technology and Culture in Inbound Call Center Industry

Authors: Joseph Reylan Viray, Kriztine R. Viray

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Call center conversations, more than the business dimensions that they normally manifest, are interactions between human beings. These are communication exchanges that are packed with psychological, cultural and social dimensions that affect the specific experience of the parties. The increasing development of information and communication technology over the past decades brought about important advantages and corresponding disadvantages in the process of communicational transactions in call center industry. It has been established that the technology is so powerful that it strongly affects, among others, call center business. In the present study, the author explores the interplay between the technology being utilized by the industry and the cultural orientations of both the call center agents and their customers in the process of communication exchanges. Specifically, the paper seeks to (1) describe the interplay between culture and technology in inbound call center industry as it affects the communication exchange of the agents and customers; (2) understand the nature and the dynamics of the call center industry as regards the cultural dimensions of Hofstede; and (3) come up with a simple study where the cross-cultural aspect of the call center industry could be highlighted and could provide necessary knowledge to the stakeholders. Cognizant of the complexity of the topic, the researchers employed Hofstede's cultural dimensions. Likewise, another theory that was used in this study is the Computer Mediated Communication Theory.

Keywords: call center industry, culture, Hofstede, CMT, technology

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4240 A Rare Case of Popliteal Artery Aneurysm Presenting with Foot Drop

Authors: John Yahng, Riteesh Bookun

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Popliteal artery aneurysms (PAAs) are the most common arterial aneurysm of the periphery. It is defined as focal dilation of the artery more than 50% of the normal vessel diameter which usually varies between 7 mm to 11 mm. The most common presentation for PAAs is claudication due to luminal stenmosis secondary to mural thrombus or acute limb ischaemia due to occlusive thrombosis or distal thromboembolism. It is less common for patients to present with non-ischaemic symptoms secondary to mass effect and compression of adjacent structures, and of these, presentation with common peroneal nerve compression is particularly uncommon. We present a rare case of a 92-year-old female patient presenting with 4-month history of left foot drop with radiological evidence of common peroneal nerve compression secondary to PAA of 22 mm by21mm in size. To the best of our knowledge, this is the smallest reported popliteal aneurysm presenting with foot drop. We also present the endovascular treatment option taken in our case.

Keywords: aneurysm, foot drop, peroneal nerve, popliteal

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4239 Non-Parametric Changepoint Approximation for Road Devices

Authors: Loïc Warscotte, Jehan Boreux

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The scientific literature of changepoint detection is vast. Today, a lot of methods are available to detect abrupt changes or slight drift in a signal, based on CUSUM or EWMA charts, for example. However, these methods rely on strong assumptions, such as the stationarity of the stochastic underlying process, or even the independence and Gaussian distributed noise at each time. Recently, the breakthrough research on locally stationary processes widens the class of studied stochastic processes with almost no assumptions on the signals and the nature of the changepoint. Despite the accurate description of the mathematical aspects, this methodology quickly suffers from impractical time and space complexity concerning the signals with high-rate data collection, if the characteristics of the process are completely unknown. In this paper, we then addressed the problem of making this theory usable to our purpose, which is monitoring a high-speed weigh-in-motion system (HS-WIM) towards direct enforcement without supervision. To this end, we first compute bounded approximations of the initial detection theory. Secondly, these approximating bounds are empirically validated by generating many independent long-run stochastic processes. The abrupt changes and the drift are both tested. Finally, this relaxed methodology is tested on real signals coming from a HS-WIM device in Belgium, collected over several months.

Keywords: changepoint, weigh-in-motion, process, non-parametric

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4238 Time Series Analysis the Case of China and USA Trade Examining during Covid-19 Trade Enormity of Abnormal Pricing with the Exchange rate

Authors: Md. Mahadi Hasan Sany, Mumenunnessa Keya, Sharun Khushbu, Sheikh Abujar

Abstract:

Since the beginning of China's economic reform, trade between the U.S. and China has grown rapidly, and has increased since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. The US imports more than it exports from China, reducing the trade war between China and the U.S. for the 2019 trade deficit, but in 2020, the opposite happens. In international and U.S. trade, Washington launched a full-scale trade war against China in March 2016, which occurred a catastrophic epidemic. The main goal of our study is to measure and predict trade relations between China and the U.S., before and after the arrival of the COVID epidemic. The ML model uses different data as input but has no time dimension that is present in the time series models and is only able to predict the future from previously observed data. The LSTM (a well-known Recurrent Neural Network) model is applied as the best time series model for trading forecasting. We have been able to create a sustainable forecasting system in trade between China and the US by closely monitoring a dataset published by the State Website NZ Tatauranga Aotearoa from January 1, 2015, to April 30, 2021. Throughout the survey, we provided a 180-day forecast that outlined what would happen to trade between China and the US during COVID-19. In addition, we have illustrated that the LSTM model provides outstanding outcome in time series data analysis rather than RFR and SVR (e.g., both ML models). The study looks at how the current Covid outbreak affects China-US trade. As a comparative study, RMSE transmission rate is calculated for LSTM, RFR and SVR. From our time series analysis, it can be said that the LSTM model has given very favorable thoughts in terms of China-US trade on the future export situation.

Keywords: RFR, China-U.S. trade war, SVR, LSTM, deep learning, Covid-19, export value, forecasting, time series analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 183
4237 Lifetime Attachment: Adult Daughters Attachment to Their Old Mothers

Authors: Meltem Anafarta Şendağ, Funda Kutlu

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Attachment theory has some major postulates that direct attention of psychologists from many different domains. First, the theory suggests that attachment is a lifetime process. This means that every human being from cradle to grave needs someone stronger to depend on in times of stress. Second, the attachment is a dynamic process and as one goes through developmental stages it is being transferred from one figure to another (friends, romantic partners). Third, the quality of attachment relationships later in time directly affected by the earliest attachment relationship established between the mother and the infant. Depending on these postulates, attachment literature focuses mostly on mother – child attachment during childhood and romantic relationship during adulthood. However, although romantic partners are important attachment figures in adults’ life, parents are not dropped out from the attachment hierarchy but they keep being important attachment figures. Despite the fact that parents could still be an important figure in adults’ life, adult – parent attachment is overlooked in the literature. Accordingly, this study focuses on adult daughters’ current attachment to their old mothers in relation with early parental bonding and current attachment to husbands. Participants of the study were 383 adult women (Average age = 40, ranging between 23 and 70) whose mothers were still alive and who were married at the time of the study. Participants were completed Adult Attachment Scale, Parental Bonding Instrument, and Experiences in Close Relationship – II together with demographic questionnaire. Results revealed that daughters’ attachment to their mothers weakens as they get older, have more children, and have longer marriages. Stronger attachment to mothers was found positively correlated with current satisfaction with the relationship, perception of maternal care before the age of 12 and negatively correlated with perception of controlling behavior before the age 12. Considering the relationship between current parental attachment and romantic attachment, it was found that as the current attachment to mother strengthens attachment avoidance towards husband decreases. Results revealed that although attachment between the adult daughters and old mothers weakens, the relationship is still critical in daughters’ lives. The strength of current attachment with the mother is related both with the early relationship with the mother and current attachment with the husband. The current study is thought to contribute to attachment theory emphasizing the attachment as a lifetime construct.

Keywords: adult daughter, attachment, old mothers, parental bonding

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4236 On the Stability Exact Analysis of Tall Buildings with Outrigger System

Authors: Mahrooz Abed, Amir R. Masoodi

Abstract:

Many structural lateral systems are used in tall buildings such as rigid frames, braced frames, shear walls, tubular structures and core structures. Some efficient structures for drift control and base moment reduction in tall buildings is outrigger and belt truss systems. When adopting outrigger beams in building design, their location should be in an optimum position for an economical design. A range of different strategies has been employed to identify the optimum locations of these outrigger beams under wind load. However, there is an absence of scientific research or case studies dealing with optimum outrigger location using buckling analysis. In this paper, one outrigger system is considered at the middle of height of structure. The optimum location of outrigger will be found based on the buckling load limitation. The core of structure is modeled by a clamped tapered beam. The exact stiffness matrix of tapered beam is formulated based on the Euler-Bernoulli theory. Finally, based on the buckling load of structure, the optimal location of outrigger will be found.

Keywords: tall buildings, outrigger system, buckling load, second-order effects, Euler-Bernoulli beam theory

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4235 Visualizing the Commercial Activity of a City by Analyzing the Data Information in Layers

Authors: Taras Agryzkov, Jose L. Oliver, Leandro Tortosa, Jose Vicent

Abstract:

This paper aims to demonstrate how network models can be used to understand and to deal with some aspects of urban complexity. As it is well known, the Theory of Architecture and Urbanism has been using for decades’ intellectual tools based on the ‘sciences of complexity’ as a strategy to propose theoretical approaches about cities and about architecture. In this sense, it is possible to find a vast literature in which for instance network theory is used as an instrument to understand very diverse questions about cities: from their commercial activity to their heritage condition. The contribution of this research consists in adding one step of complexity to this process: instead of working with one single primal graph as it is usually done, we will show how new network models arise from the consideration of two different primal graphs interacting in two layers. When we model an urban network through a mathematical structure like a graph, the city is usually represented by a set of nodes and edges that reproduce its topology, with the data generated or extracted from the city embedded in it. All this information is normally displayed in a single layer. Here, we propose to separate the information in two layers so that we can evaluate the interaction between them. Besides, both layers may be composed of structures that do not have to coincide: from this bi-layer system, groups of interactions emerge, suggesting reflections and in consequence, possible actions.

Keywords: graphs, mathematics, networks, urban studies

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4234 The Effect of Ni/Dolomite Catalyst for Production of Hydrogen from NaBH₄

Authors: Burcu Kiren, Alattin CAkan, Nezihe Ayas

Abstract:

Hydrogen will be arguably the best fuel in the future as it is the most abundant element in the universe. Hydrogen, as a fuel, is notably environmentally benign, sustainable and has high energy content compared to other sources of energy. It can be generated from both conventional and renewable sources. The hydrolysis reaction of metal hydrides provides an option for hydrogen production in the presence of a catalyst. In this study, Ni/dolomite catalyst was synthesized by the wet impregnation method for hydrogen production by hydrolysis reaction of sodium borohydride (NaBH4). Besides, the synthesized catalysts characterizations were examined by means of thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), X-ray diffraction (XRD), Brunauer –Emmett – Teller (BET) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The influence of reaction temperature (25-75 °C), reaction time (15-60 min.), amount of catalyst (50-250 mg) and active metal loading ratio (20,30,40 wt.%) were investigated. The catalyst prepared with 30 wt.% Ni was noted as the most suitable catalyst, achieving of 35.18% H₂ and hydrogen production rate of 19.23 mL/gcat.min at 25 °C at reaction conditions of 5 mL of 0.25 M NaOH and 100 mg NaBH₄, 100 mg Ni/dolomite.

Keywords: sodium borohydride, hydrolysis, catalyst, Ni/dolomite, hydrogen

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4233 Deciding Graph Non-Hamiltonicity via a Closure Algorithm

Authors: E. R. Swart, S. J. Gismondi, N. R. Swart, C. E. Bell

Abstract:

We present an heuristic algorithm that decides graph non-Hamiltonicity. All graphs are directed, each undirected edge regarded as a pair of counter directed arcs. Each of the n! Hamilton cycles in a complete graph on n+1 vertices is mapped to an n-permutation matrix P where p(u,i)=1 if and only if the ith arc in a cycle enters vertex u, starting and ending at vertex n+1. We first create exclusion set E by noting all arcs (u, v) not in G, sufficient to code precisely all cycles excluded from G i.e. cycles not in G use at least one arc not in G. Members are pairs of components of P, {p(u,i),p(v,i+1)}, i=1, n-1. A doubly stochastic-like relaxed LP formulation of the Hamilton cycle decision problem is constructed. Each {p(u,i),p(v,i+1)} in E is coded as variable q(u,i,v,i+1)=0 i.e. shrinks the feasible region. We then implement the Weak Closure Algorithm (WCA) that tests necessary conditions of a matching, together with Boolean closure to decide 0/1 variable assignments. Each {p(u,i),p(v,j)} not in E is tested for membership in E, and if possible, added to E (q(u,i,v,j)=0) to iteratively maximize |E|. If the WCA constructs E to be maximal, the set of all {p(u,i),p(v,j)}, then G is decided non-Hamiltonian. Only non-Hamiltonian G share this maximal property. Ten non-Hamiltonian graphs (10 through 104 vertices) and 2000 randomized 31 vertex non-Hamiltonian graphs are tested and correctly decided non-Hamiltonian. For Hamiltonian G, the complement of E covers a matching, perhaps useful in searching for cycles. We also present an example where the WCA fails.

Keywords: Hamilton cycle decision problem, computational complexity theory, graph theory, theoretical computer science

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4232 Disrupting Traditional Industries: A Scenario-Based Experiment on How Blockchain-Enabled Trust and Transparency Transform Nonprofit Organizations

Authors: Michael Mertel, Lars Friedrich, Kai-Ingo Voigt

Abstract:

Based on principle-agent theory, an information asymmetry exists in the traditional donation process. Consumers cannot comprehend whether nonprofit organizations (NPOs) use raised funds according to the designated cause after the transaction took place (hidden action). Therefore, charity organizations have tried to appear transparent and gain trust by using the same marketing instruments for decades (e.g., releasing project success reports). However, none of these measures can guarantee consumers that charities will use their donations for the purpose. With awareness of misuse of donations rising due to the Ukraine conflict (e.g., funding crime), consumers are increasingly concerned about the destination of their charitable purposes. Therefore, innovative charities like the Human Rights Foundation have started to offer donations via blockchain. Blockchain technology has the potential to establish profound trust and transparency in the donation process: Consumers can publicly track the progress of their donation at any time after deciding to donate. This ensures that the charity is not using donations against its original intent. Hence, the aim is to investigate the effect of blockchain-enabled transactions on the willingness to donate. Sample and Design: To investigate consumers' behavior, we use a scenario-based experiment. After removing participants (e.g., due to failed attention checks), 3192 potential donors participated (47.9% female, 62.4% bachelor or above). Procedure: We randomly assigned the participants to one of two scenarios. In all conditions, the participants read a scenario about a fictive charity organization called "Helper NPO." Afterward, the participants answered questions regarding their perception of the charity. Manipulation: The first scenario (n = 1405) represents a typical donation process, where consumers donate money without any option to track and trace. The second scenario (n = 1787) represents a donation process via blockchain, where consumers can track and trace their donations respectively. Using t-statistics, the findings demonstrate a positive effect of donating via blockchain on participants’ willingness to donate (mean difference = 0.667, p < .001, Cohen’s d effect size = 0.482). A mediation analysis shows significant effects for the mediation of transparency (Estimate = 0.199, p < .001), trust (Estimate = 0.144, p < .001), and transparency and trust (Estimate = 0.158, p < .001). The total effect of blockchain usage on participants’ willingness to donate (Estimate = 0.690, p < .001) consists of the direct effect (Estimate = 0.189, p < .001) and the indirect effects of transparency and trust (Estimate = 0.501, p < .001). Furthermore, consumers' affinity for technology moderates the direct effect of blockchain usage on participants' willingness to donate (Estimate = 0.150, p < .001). Donating via blockchain is a promising way for charities to engage consumers for several reasons: (1) Charities can emphasize trust and transparency in their advertising campaigns. (2) Established charities can target new customer segments by specifically engaging technology-affine consumers in the future. (3) Charities can raise international funds without previous barriers (e.g., setting up bank accounts). Nevertheless, increased transparency can also backfire (e.g., disclosure of costs). Such cases require further research.

Keywords: blockchain, social sector, transparency, trust

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4231 Droplet Impact on a High Frequency Vibrating Surface

Authors: Maryam Ebrahimiazar, Parsia Mohammadshahi, Amirreza Amighi, Nasser Ashgriz

Abstract:

Ultrasonic atomization is used to generate micron size aerosols. In this work, the aerosol formation by the atomization of a parent droplet dripping from a capillary needle onto the surface of a Teflon coated piezoelectric vibrating at 2.5 MHz is studied, and different steps of atomization are categorized. After the droplet impacts on the piezoelectric, surface acoustic streaming deforms the droplet into a fountain shape. This fountain soon collapses and forms a liquid layer. The breakup of the liquid layer results in the generation of both large ( 100 microns) and small drops (few microns). Next, the residual drops from the liquid layer start to be atomized to generate few micron size droplets. The high velocity and explosive aerosol formation in this step are better explained in terms of cavitation theory. However, the combination of both capillary waves and cavitation theory seem to be responsible for few-micron droplet generation. The current study focuses on both qualitative and quantitative aspects of fountain formation for both ethyl-alcohol and water. Even though the general steps of atomization are the same for both liquids, the quantitative results indicate that some noticeable differences lie between them.

Keywords: droplet breakup, ultrasonic atomization, acoustic streaming, droplet oscillation

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4230 Examining Historically Defined Periods in Autobiographical Memories for Transitional Events

Authors: Khadeeja Munawar, Shamsul Haque

Abstract:

We examined the plausibility of transition theory suggesting that memories of transitional events, which give rise to a significant and persistent change in the fabric of daily life, are organized around the historically defined autobiographical periods (H-DAPs). 141 Pakistani older adults retrieved 10 autobiographical memories (AMs) each to 10 cue words. As the history of Pakistan is dominated by various political and nationwide transitional events, it was expected that the participants would recall memories with H-DAPs references. The content analysis revealed that 0.7% of memories had H-DAP references and 0.4% memories mentioned major transitional events such as War/Natural Disaster. There was a vivid reminiscence bump between 10 - 20 years of age in lifespan distribution of AMs. There were 67.9% social-focused AMs. Significantly more self-focused memories were reported by individuals who endorsed themselves as conservatives. Only a few H-DAPs were reported, although the history of Pakistan was dominated by numerous political, historical and nationwide transitional events. Memories within and outside of the bump period were mostly positive. The participants rarely used historical/political or nationwide significant events or periods to date the memories elicited. The intense and nationwide (as well as region-wise) significant historical/political events spawned across decades in the lives of participants of the present study but these events did not produce H-DAPs. The findings contradicted the previous studies on H-DAPs and transition theory. The dominance of social-focused AMs in the present study is in line with the past studies comparing the memories of collectivist and individualist cultures (i.e., European Americans vs. Asian, African and Latin-American cultures). The past empirical evidence shows that conservative values and beliefs are adopted as a coping strategy to feel secure in the face of danger when future is dominated with uncertainty and to connect to likeminded others. In the present study, conservative political ideology is somehow assisting the participants in living a stable life midst of their complex social worlds. The reminiscence bump, as well as dominance of positive memories within and outside the bump period, are in line with the narrative/identity account which states that the events and experiences during adolescence and early adulthood assimilate into a person’s lifelong narratives. Hence these events are used as identity markers and are more easily recalled later in life. Also, according to socioemotional theory and the positivity effect, the participants evaluated past events more positively as they grow up and the intensity of negative emotions decreased with time.

Keywords: autobiographical memory, historically defined autobiographical periods, narrative/identity account, Pakistan, reminiscence bump, SMS framework, transition theory

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4229 Flexible and Integrated Transport System in India

Authors: Aayushi Patidar, Nishant Parihar

Abstract:

One of the principal causes of failure in existing vehicle brokerage solutions is that they require the introduction of a single trusted third party to whom transport offers and requirements are sent, and which solves the scheduling problem. Advances in planning and scheduling could be utilized to address the scalability issues inherent here, but such refinements do not address the key need to decentralize decision-making. This is not to say that matchmaking of potential transport suppliers to consumers is not essential, but information from such a service should inform rather than determining the transport options for customers. The approach that is proposed, is the use of intelligent commuters that act within the system and to identify options open to users, weighing the evidence for desirability of each option given a model of the user’s priorities, and to drive dialogue among commuters in aiding users to solve their individual (or collective) transport goals. Existing research in commuter support for transport resource management has typically been focused on the provider. Our vision is to explore both the efficient use of limited transport resources and also to support the passengers in the transportation flexibility & integration among various modes in India.

Keywords: flexibility, integration, service design, technology

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4228 Vibration Control of Hermetic Compressors Using Flexible Multi-Body Dynamics Theory

Authors: Armin Amindari

Abstract:

Hermetic compressors are used widely for refrigeration, heat pump, and air conditioning applications. With the improvement of energy conservation and environmental protection requirements, inverter compressors that operates at different speeds have become increasingly attractive in the industry. Although speed change capability is more efficient, passing through resonant frequencies may lead to excessive vibrations. In this work, an integrated vibration control approach based on flexible multi-body dynamics theory is used for optimizing the vibration amplitudes of the compressor at different operating speeds. To examine the compressor vibrations, all the forces and moments exerted on the cylinder block were clarified and minimized using balancers attached to the upper and lower ends of the motor rotor and crankshaft. The vibration response of the system was simulated using Motionview™ software. In addition, mass-spring optimization was adopted to shift the resonant frequencies out of the operating speeds. The modal shapes of the system were studied using Optistruct™ solver. Using this approach, the vibrations were reduced up to 56% through dynamic simulations. The results were in high agreement with various experimental test data. In addition, the vibration resonance problem observed at low speeds was solved by shifting the resonant frequencies through optimization studies.

Keywords: vibration, MBD, compressor, hermetic

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4227 Modeling Anisotropic Damage Algorithms of Metallic Structures

Authors: Bahar Ayhan

Abstract:

The present paper is concerned with the numerical modeling of the inelastic behavior of the anisotropically damaged ductile materials, which are based on a generalized macroscopic theory within the framework of continuum damage mechanics. Kinematic decomposition of the strain rates into elastic, plastic and damage parts is basis for accomplishing the structure of continuum theory. The evolution of the damage strain rate tensor is detailed with the consideration of anisotropic effects. Helmholtz free energy functions are constructed separately for the elastic and inelastic behaviors in order to be able to address the plastic and damage process. Additionally, the constitutive structure, which is based on the standard dissipative material approach, is elaborated with stress tensor, a yield criterion for plasticity and a fracture criterion for damage besides the potential functions of each inelastic phenomenon. The finite element method is used to approximate the linearized variational problem. Stress and strain outcomes are solved by using the numerical integration algorithm based on operator split methodology with a plastic and damage (multiplicator) variable separately. Numerical simulations are proposed in order to demonstrate the efficiency of the formulation by comparing the examples in the literature.

Keywords: anisotropic damage, finite element method, plasticity, coupling

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