Search results for: initial region

Authors: Zakiya Shireen, Sujin B. Babu

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Irreversible diffusion-limited cluster aggregation (DLCA) of binary sticky spheres was simulated by modifying the Brownian Cluster Dynamics (BCD). We randomly distribute N spheres in a 3D box of size L, the volume fraction is given by Φtot = (π/6)N/L³. We identify NA and NB number of spheres as species A and B in our system both having identical size. In these systems, both A and B particles undergo Brownian motion. Irreversible bond formation happens only between intra-species particles and inter-species interact only through hard-core repulsions. As we perform simulation using BCD we start to observe binary gels. In our study, we have observed that species B always percolate (cluster size equal to L) as expected for the monomeric case and species A does not percolate below a critical ratio which is different for different volume fractions. We will also show that the accessible volume of the system increases when compared to the monomeric case, which means that species A is aggregating inside the cage created by B. We have also observed that for moderate Φtot the system undergoes a transition from flocculation region to percolation region indicated by the change in fractal dimension from 1.8 to 2.5. For smaller ratio of A, it stays in the flocculation regime even though B have already crossed over to the percolation regime. Thus, we observe two fractal dimension in the same system.

Keywords: BCD, fractals, percolation, sticky spheres

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Authors: Gudakesh Yadav

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Uttar Pradesh is one of the poorest performing states of India in terms of child health. Using data from the three round of NFHS and two rounds of DLHS, this paper attempts to examine tempo-spatial change in child health and care practices in Uttar Pradesh and its regions. Rate-ratio, CI, multivariate, and decomposition analysis has been used for the study. Findings demonstrate that child health care practices have improved over the time in all regions of the state. However; western and southern region registered the lowest progress in child immunization. Nevertheless, there is no decline in prevalence of diarrhea and ARI over the period, and it remains critically high in the western and southern region. These regions also poorly performed in giving ORS, diarrhoea and ARI treatment. Public health services are least preferred for diarrhoea and ARI treatment. Results from decomposition analysis reveal that rural area, mother’s illiteracy and wealth contributed highest to the low utilization of the child health care practices consistently over the period of time. The study calls for targeted intervention for vulnerable children to accelerate child health care service utilization. Poor performing regions should be targeted and routinely monitored on poor child health indicators.

Keywords: Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI), decomposition, diarrhea, inequality, immunization

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Authors: Sif J. Friis, Mette Poulsen, Torben Strom Hansen, Peter Herskind, Jens V. Nygaard

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Gastric biomechanics governs a large range of scientific and engineering fields, from gastric health issues to interaction mechanisms between external devices and the tissue. Determination of mechanical properties of the stomach is, thus, crucial, both for understanding gastric pathologies as well as for the development of medical concepts and device designs. Although the field of gastric biomechanics is emerging, advances within medical devices interacting with the gastric tissue could greatly benefit from an increased understanding of tissue anisotropy and heterogeneity. Thus, in this study, uniaxial tensile tests of gastric tissue were executed in order to study biomechanical properties within the same individual as well as across individuals. With biomechanical tests in the strain domain, tissue from the antrum region of six porcine stomachs was tested using eight samples from each stomach (n = 48). The samples were cut so that they followed dominant fiber orientations. Accordingly, from each stomach, four samples were longitudinally oriented, and four samples were circumferentially oriented. A step-wise stress relaxation test with five incremental steps up to 25 % strain with 200 s rest periods for each step was performed, followed by a 25 % strain ramp test with three different strain rates. Theoretical analysis of the data provided stress-strain/time curves as well as 20 material parameters (e.g., stiffness coefficients, dissipative energy densities, and relaxation time coefficients) used for statistical comparisons between samples from the same stomach as well as in between stomachs. Results showed that, for the 20 material parameters, heterogeneity across individuals, when extracting samples from the same area, was in the same order of variation as the samples within the same stomach. For samples from the same stomach, the mean deviation percentage for all 20 parameters was 21 % and 18 % for longitudinal and circumferential orientations, compared to 25 % and 19 %, respectively, for samples across individuals. This observation was also supported by a nonparametric one-way ANOVA analysis, where results showed that the 20 material parameters from each of the six stomachs came from the same distribution with a level of statistical significance of P > 0.05. Direction-dependency was also examined, and it was found that the maximum stress for longitudinal samples was significantly higher than for circumferential samples. However, there were no significant differences in the 20 material parameters, with the exception of the equilibrium stiffness coefficient (P = 0.0039) and two other stiffness coefficients found from the relaxation tests (P = 0.0065, 0.0374). Nor did the stomach tissue show any significant differences between the three strain-rates used in the ramp test. Heterogeneity within the same region has not been examined earlier, yet, the importance of the sampling area has been demonstrated in this study. All material parameters found are essential to understand the passive mechanics of the stomach and may be used for mathematical and computational modeling. Additionally, an extension of the protocol used may be relevant for compiling a comparative study between the human stomach and the pig stomach.

Keywords: antrum region, gastric biomechanics, loading-unloading, stress relaxation, uniaxial tensile testing

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Authors: Joseph K. A. Johnson

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Hypertension affects 20 percent of the people within the ages 55 upward in Ghana. Of these, almost one-third are unaware of their condition. Also at the age of 55, more men turned to have hypertension than women. After that age, the condition becomes more prevalent with women. Hypertension is significantly more common in African Americans of both sexes than the racial or ethnic groups. This study was conducted to determine the causes of high blood pressure in Ashanti Region, Ghana. The study employed One Hundred and Seventy (170) respondents. The sample population for the study was all the available respondents at the time of the data collection. The research was conducted using primary data where convenience sampling was used to locate the respondents. A set of questionnaire were used to gather the data for the study. The gathered data was analysed using principal component analysis. The study revealed that, personal description, lifestyle behavior and risk awareness as some of the causes of high blood pressure in Ashanti Region. The study therefore recommend that people must be advice to see to their personal characteristics that may contribute to high blood pressure such as controlling of their temper and how to react perfectly to stressful situations. They must be educated on the factors that may increase the level of their blood pressure such as the essence of seeing a medical doctor before taking in any drug. People must also be made known by the public health officers to those lifestyles behaviour such as smoking and drinking of alcohol which are major contributors of high blood pressure.

Keywords: high blood pressure, principal component analysis, hypertension, public health

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Authors: Li Yin, Xiaoqin Wang

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Background and purpose: Cancer diagnosis is part of a complex stochastic process, in which patients' personal and social characteristics influence the choice of diagnosing methods, diagnosing methods, in turn, influence the initial assessment of cancer stage, the initial assessment, in turn, influences the choice of treating methods, and treating methods in turn influence cancer outcomes such as cancer survival. To evaluate diagnosing methods, one needs to estimate and test the causal effect of a regime of cancer diagnosis and treatments. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to estimate and test these causal effects via point effects. The purpose of the work is to estimate and test causal effects under various regimes of cancer diagnosis and treatments via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The cancer stage has influences from earlier diagnosis as well as on subsequent treatments. As a consequence, it is highly difficult to estimate and test the causal effects via standard parameters, that is, the conditional survival given all stationary covariates, diagnosing methods, cancer stage and prognosis factors, treating methods. Instead of standard parameters, we use the point effects of cancer diagnosis and treatments to estimate and test causal effects under various regimes of cancer diagnosis and treatments. We are able to use familiar methods in the framework of single-point causal inference to accomplish the task. Achievements: we have applied this method to stomach cancer survival from a clinical study in Sweden. We have studied causal effects under various regimes, including the optimal regime of diagnosis and treatments and the effect moderation of the causal effect by age and gender.

Keywords: cancer diagnosis, causal effect, point effect, G-formula, sequential causal effect

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Authors: Ali Ait Boughrous, Said Benyoussef, Hossain El Ouarghi, Moulay Abdelazize Aboulhassan, Samah Aitbnichou, Said Benguamra

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The Rhiss-Nekor aquifer represents a primary water source for the central Rif region. Many operating structures were built for irrigation and drinking water supply. Because of the vulnerability of this aquifer, a thorough knowledge of the environment is needed to evaluate and protect resources. This work aims at the quality assessment of the water table of the plain Ghiss-Nekor and determination of pollution sources in order to establish a map of the web. The plain-Rhiss Nekor, with an area of 100 km2, is located on the Mediterranean coast of Morocco. It has a particular geological structure resulting from the opening of a graben at the end of the Tertiary, which is filled by the accumulation of hundreds of meters of sediment, generating considerable heterogeneity in deposits. This heterogeneity gives various hydrodynamic properties within the aquifer of the plain. The analysis of the water quality of twenty water points, well distributed over the plain, showed high natural salinity linked to the geological nature of the area. This salinity increases in the littoral area by the seawater intrusion phenomenon. This is accentuated by overexploitation of the ground water due to the growing demand. Some wells, located inland, are characterized by organic pollution caused by wastewater seepage from septic tanks and lost wells widespread in the region.

Keywords: anthropogenic factors, groundwater quality, marine intrusion, Rhiss-Nekor aquifer

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Authors: Tsuneyuki Namekata, Yoko Namekata

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It is known that the mean investment evolves from a very low initial value to some high level in the Continuous Prisoner's Dilemma. We examine how the cooperation level evolves from a low initial level to a high level in our Demographic Multi-level Donor-Recipient situation. In the Multi-level Donor-Recipient game, one player is selected as a Donor and the other as a Recipient randomly. The Donor has multiple cooperative moves and one defective move. A cooperative move means the Donor pays some cost for the Recipient to receive some benefit. The more cooperative move the Donor takes, the higher cost the Donor pays and the higher benefit the Recipient receives. The defective move has no effect on them. Two consecutive Multi-level Donor-Recipient games, one as a Donor and the other as a Recipient, can be viewed as a discrete version of the Continuous Prisoner's Dilemma. In the Demographic Multi-level Donor-Recipient game, players are initially distributed spatially. In each period, players play multiple Multi-level Donor-Recipient games against other players. He leaves offspring if possible and dies because of negative accumulated payoff of him or his lifespan. Cooperative moves are necessary for the survival of the whole population. There is only a low level of cooperative move besides the defective move initially available in strategies of players. A player may modify and expand his strategy by his recent experiences or practices. We distinguish several types of a player about modification and expansion. We show, by Agent-Based Simulation, that introducing only the modification increases the emergence rate of cooperation and introducing both the modification and the expansion further increases it and a high level of cooperation does emerge in our Demographic Multi-level Donor-Recipient Game.

Keywords: agent-based simulation, donor-recipient game, emergence of cooperation, spatial structure, TFT, TF2T

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Authors: Awole Seid, Yosef Zenebe, Hadgu Gerensea, Kebede Haile Misgina

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Background: Clinical competence is one of the ultimate goals of nursing education. Clinical skills are more than successfully performing tasks; it incorporates client assessment, identification of deficits and the ability to critically think to provide solutions. Assessment of clinical competence, particularly identifying gaps that need improvement and determining the educational needs of nursing students have great importance in nursing education. Thus this study aims determining clinical self-efficacy of final year school of nursing students in three universities of Tigray Region. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 224 final year school of nursing students from department of nursing, psychiatric nursing, and midwifery on three universities of Tigray region. Anonymous self-administered questionnaire was administered to generate data collected on June, 2017. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 20. The result is described using tables and charts as required. Logistic regression was employed to test associations. Result: The mean age of students was 22.94 + 1.44. Generally, 21% of students have been graduated in the department in which they are not interested. The study demonstrated 28.6% had poor and 71.4% had good perceived clinical self-efficacy. Beside this, 43.8% of psychiatric nursing and 32.6% of comprehensive nursing students have poor clinical self-efficacy. Among the four domains, 39.3% and 37.9% have poor clinical self- efficacy with regard to ‘Professional development’ and ‘Management of care’. Place of the institution [AOR=3.480 (1.333 - 9.088), p=0.011], interest during department selection [AOR=2.202 (1.045 - 4.642), p=.038], and theory-practice gap [AOR=0.224 (0.110 - 0.457), p=0.000] were significantly associated with perceived clinical self-efficacy. Conclusion: The magnitude of students with poor clinically self efficacy was high. Place of institution, theory-practice gap, students interest to the discipline were the significant predictors of clinical self-efficacy. Students from youngest universities have good clinical self-efficacy. During department selection, student’s interest should be respected. The universities and other stakeholders should improve the capacity of surrounding affiliate teaching hospitals to set and improve care standards in order to narrow the theory-practice gap. School faculties should provide trainings to hospital staffs and monitor standards of clinical procedures.

Keywords: clinical self-efficacy, nursing students, Tigray, northern Ethiopia

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Authors: Terefe Alemu

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This study is intended to examine Ethiopia’s trade flow determinants and trade potential with G20 countries whether it was overtraded or there is/are trade potential by using trade gravity model. The sources of panel data used were IMF, WDI, United Nations population division, The Heritage Foundation, Washington's No. 1 think tank online website database, online distance calculator, and others for the duration of 2010 to 2019 for 10 consecutive years. The empirical data analyzing tool used was Random effect model (REM), which is effective in estimation of time-invariant data. The empirical data analyzed using STATA software result indicates that Ethiopia has a trade potential with seven countries of G20, whereas Ethiopia overtrade with 12 countries and EU region. The Ethiopia’s and G20 countries/region bilateral trade flow statistically significant/ p<0.05/determinants were the population of G20 countries, growth domestic products of G20 countries, growth domestic products of Ethiopia, geographical distance between Ethiopia and G20 countries. The top five G20 countries exported to Ethiopia were china, United State of America, European Union, India, and South Africa, whereas the top five G20 countries imported from Ethiopia were EU, China, United State of America, Saudi Arabia, and Germany, respectively. Finally, the policy implication were Ethiopia has to Keep the consistence of trade flow with overtraded countries and improve with under traded countries through trade policy revision, and secondly, focusing on the trade determinants to improve trade flow is recommended.

Keywords: trade gravity model, trade determinants, G20, international trade, trade potential

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Authors: Hayati Sari Hasibuan, Tresna P. Soemardi, Raldi H. Koestoer, Setyo S. Moersidik

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Facing the severe transportation system in daily basis, the government of Indonesia were searching an alternative solution to combat the acute traffic jam and the socio-economic negative effects and pollutions resulted. Transit-oriented development as a strategy in reformulating and restructuring of the urban land uses as well as the transport system will be implemented in many urban areas in Indonesia, especially in Jabodetabek. Jabodetabek is the greatest metropolitan area in Indonesia with 27.9 million inhabitants. The Jabodetabek is also the center of economic activity with gross domestic product around 22 percent of gross national product. This study aims to assess the potential of economic development and community change effects with implementing the transit oriented development. This study found that using transit oriented development as an alternative approach in reconstructing of urban land uses in metropolitan region will effect to the behaviour of urban mobilities, the housing choices, and the cost of transportation. The sustainable of socio-economic aspects resulting from the transit oriented development is the main focus of this paper. The challenge here is to explore the characteristics of transit oriented development that suitable for metropolitan region in developing country,which considering the uniqueness of nature and socio-cultural that shapes this urban.

Keywords: economic development, community change, restructuring, land use, transportation, environment

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Authors: F. Hamidi, N. Amiri, H. Mishmast Nehi

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The Bilevel Programming (BP) model has been presented for a decision making process that consists of two decision makers in a hierarchical structure. In fact, BP is a model for a static two person game (the leader player in the upper level and the follower player in the lower level) wherein each player tries to optimize his/her personal objective function under dependent constraints; this game is sequential and non-cooperative. The decision making variables are divided between the two players and one’s choice affects the other’s benefit and choices. In other words, BP consists of two nested optimization problems with two objective functions (upper and lower) where the constraint region of the upper level problem is implicitly determined by the lower level problem. In real cases, the coefficients of an optimization problem may not be precise, i.e. they may be interval. In this paper we develop an algorithm for solving interval bilevel linear fractional programming problems. That is to say, bilevel problems in which both objective functions are linear fractional, the coefficients are interval and the common constraint region is a polyhedron. From the original problem, the best and the worst bilevel linear fractional problems have been derived and then, using the extended Charnes and Cooper transformation, each fractional problem can be reduced to a linear problem. Then we can find the best and the worst optimal values of the leader objective function by two algorithms.

Keywords: best and worst optimal solutions, bilevel programming, fractional, interval coefficients

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Authors: Jonathan Ogwal, Louis H. Kamulegeya, John M. Bwanika, Davis Musinguzi

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Introduction: Community retail Pharmacy drug distribution points (CRPDDP) were implemented in the Lango sub-region as part of the Ministry of Health’s response to improving access and adherence to antiretroviral treatment (ART). Clients received their ART refills from nearby local pharmacies; as such, the need for continuous engagement through mobile phone appointment reminders and health messages. We share learnings from the implementation of mobile text reminders and voice call follow-ups among ART clients attending the CRPDDP program in northern Uganda. Methods: A retrospective data review of electronic medical records from four pharmacies allocated for CRPDDP in the Lira and Apac districts of the Lango sub-region in Northern Uganda was done from February to August 2022. The process involved collecting phone contacts of eligible clients from the health facility appointment register and uploading them onto a messaging platform customized by Rapid-pro, an open-source software. Client information, including code name, phone number, next appointment date, and the allocated pharmacy for ART refill, was collected and kept confidential. Contacts received appointment reminder messages and other messages on positive living as an ART client. Routine voice call follow-ups were done to ascertain the picking of ART from the refill pharmacy. Findings: In total, 1,354 clients were reached from the four allocated pharmacies found in urban centers. 972 clients received short message service (SMS) appointment reminders, and 382 were followed up through voice calls. The majority (75%) of the clients returned for refills on the appointed date, 20% returned within four days after the appointment date, and the remaining 5% needed follow-up where they reported that they were not in the district by the appointment date due to other engagements. Conclusion: The use of mobile text reminders and voice call follow-ups improves the attendance of community retail pharmacy refills.

Keywords: antiretroviral treatment, community retail drug distribution points, mobile text reminders, voice call follow-up

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Authors: Tatiana V. Melnikova, Lyudmila P. Polyakova, Alla A. Oudalova

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As a result of environmental pollution, the production of agriculture and foodstuffs inevitably contain residual amounts of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POP). The special attention must be given to organic pollutants, including various organochlorinated pesticides (OCP). Among priorities, OCP is DDT (and its metabolite DDE), alfa-HCH, gamma-HCH (lindane). The control of these substances spends proceeding from requirements of sanitary norms and rules. During too time often is lost sight of that the primary product can pass technological processing (in particular irradiation treatment) as a result of which transformation of physicochemical forms of initial polluting substances is possible. The goal of the present work was to study the OCP radiation degradation at a various gamma-radiation dosimetric characteristics. The problems posed for goal achievement: to evaluate the content of the priority of OCPs in food; study the character the degradation of OCP in model solutions (with micro concentrations commensurate with the real content of their agricultural and food products) depending upon dosimetric characteristics of gamma-radiation. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of OCP in food and model solutions by gas chromatograph Varian 3400 (Varian, Inc. (USA)); chromatography-mass spectrometer Varian Saturn 4D (Varian, Inc. (USA)) was carried out. The solutions of DDT, DDE, alpha- and gamma- isomer HCH (0.01, 0.1, 1 ppm) were irradiated on "Issledovatel" (60Co) and "Luch - 1" (60Co) installations at a dose 10 kGy with a variation of dose rate from 0.0083 up to 2.33 kGy/sec. It was established experimentally that OCP residual concentration in individual samples of food products (fish, milk, cereal crops, meat, butter) are evaluated as 10-1-10-4 mg/kg, the value of which depends on the factor-sensations territory and natural migration processes. The results were used in the preparation of model solutions OCP. The dependence of a degradation extent of OCP from a dose rate gamma-irradiation has complex nature. According to our data at a dose 10 kGy, the degradation extent of OCP at first increase passes through a maximum (over the range 0.23 – 0.43 Gy/sec), and then decrease with the magnification of a dose rate. The character of the dependence of a degradation extent of OCP from a dose rate is kept for various OCP, in polar and nonpolar solvents and does not vary at the change of concentration of the initial substance. Also in work conditions of the maximal radiochemical yield of OCP which were observed at having been certain: influence of gamma radiation with a dose 10 kGy, in a range of doses rate 0.23 – 0.43 Gy/sec; concentration initial OCP 1 ppm; use of solvent - 2-propanol after preliminary removal of oxygen. Based on, that at studying model solutions of OCP has been established that the degradation extent of pesticides and qualitative structure of OCP radiolysis products depend on a dose rate, has been decided to continue researches radiochemical transformations OCP into foodstuffs at various of doses rate.

Keywords: degradation extent, dosimetric characteristics, gamma-radiation, organochlorinated pesticides, persistent organic pollutants

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Authors: Mastewal Endeshaw Getnet

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Imunization is one of the most cost-effective and extensively adopted public health strategies for preventing child disability and mortality. Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) was launched in 1974 with the goal of providing life-saving vaccines to all children in all and building on the success of the global smallpox eradication program. According to World Health Organization report, by 2020, all countries should have achieved 90% vaccination coverage. Many developing countries still have not achieved the goal. Ethiopia is one of Africa's developing countries. The Ethiopian Ministry of health (MoH) launched the EPI program in 1980, with the goal of achieving 90% coverage among children under the age of 1 year by 1990. Among children aged 12-23 months, complete immunization coverage was 47% based on the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDAS) 2019 report. The coverage varies depending on the administrative region, ranging from 21% in Afar region to 89% in Amhara region, Ethiopia. Therefore, identifying risk factors for incomplete immunization among children is a key challenge, particularly in Ethiopia, which has a large geographical diversity and a predicted with 119.96 million projected population size in the year 2022. Despite its critical and challenging issue, this issue is still open and has not yet been fully investigated. Recently, a few previous studies have been conducted on the assessment of incomplete children immunization determinants. However, the majority of the studies were cross-sectional surveys that assessed only EPI coverage. Motivated by the above investigation, this study focuses on investigating determinants associated with incomplete immunization among Ethiopian children to facilitate the rate of full immunization coverage. Moreover, we consider both individual immunization and service performance-related factors to investigate incomplete children's determinants. Consequently, we adopted an ecological model in this study. Individual and environmental factors are combined in the Ecological model, which provides multilevel framework for exploring different determinants related with health behaviors. The Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey will be used as a source of data from 2021 to achieve the objective of this study. The findings of this study will be useful to the Ethiopian government and other public health institutes to improve the coverage score of childhood immunization based on the identified risk determinants.

Keywords: incomplete immunization, children, ethiopia, ecological model

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Authors: Mizan Ahmed, Srikanth Venkatesan

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Geological and tectonic framework indicates that Bangladesh is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. The Bengal Basin is at the junction of three major interacting plates: the Indian, Eurasian, and Burma Plates. Besides there are many active faults within the region, e.g. the large Dauki fault in the north. The country has experienced a number of destructive earthquakes due to the movement of these active faults. Current seismic provisions of Bangladesh are mostly based on earthquake data prior to the 1990. Given the record of earthquakes post 1990, there is a need to revisit the design provisions of the code. This paper compares the base shear demand of three major cities in Bangladesh: Dhaka (the capital city), Sylhet, and Chittagong for earthquake scenarios of magnitudes 7.0MW, 7.5MW, 8.0MW and 8.5MW using a stochastic model. In particular, the stochastic model allows the flexibility to input region specific parameters such as shear wave velocity profile (that were developed from Global Crustal Model CRUST2.0) and include the effects of attenuation as individual components. Effects of soil amplification were analysed using the Extended Component Attenuation Model (ECAM). Results show that the estimated base shear demand is higher in comparison with code provisions leading to the suggestion of additional seismic design consideration in the study regions.

Keywords: attenuation, earthquake, ground motion, Stochastic, seismic hazard

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Authors: Yu Menshikov

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In this paper the influence of errors of function derivatives in initial time which have been obtained by experiment (uncontrollable inaccuracy) to the results of inverse problem solution was investigated. It was shown that these errors distort the inverse problem solution as a rule near the beginning of interval where the solution are analyzed. Several methods for remove the influence of uncontrollable inaccuracy have been suggested.

Keywords: inverse problems, filtration, uncontrollable inaccuracy

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Authors: Michele Catalano, Jacopo Di Domenico, Luca Riccetti, Andrea Teglio

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We develop a data-driven agent based model (ABM) for the Italian economy. We calibrate the model for the initial condition and parameters. As a preliminary step, we replicate the Monte-Carlo simulation for the Austrian economy. Then, we evaluate the dynamic properties of the model: the long-run equilibrium and the allocative efficiency in terms of disequilibrium patterns arising in the search and matching process for final goods, capital, intermediate goods, and credit markets. In this perspective, we use a randomized initial condition approach. We perform a robustness analysis perturbing the system for different parameter setups. We explore the empirical properties of the model using a rolling window forecast exercise from 2010 to 2022 to observe the model’s forecasting ability in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. We perform an analysis of the properties of the model with a different number of agents, that is, with different scales of the model compared to the real economy. The model generally displays transient dynamics that properly fit macroeconomic data regarding forecasting ability. We stress the model with a large set of shocks, namely interest policy, fiscal policy, and exogenous factors, such as external foreign demand for export. In this way, we can explore the most exposed sectors of the economy. Finally, we modify the technology mix of the various sectors and, consequently, the underlying input-output sectoral interdependence to stress the economy and observe the long-run projections. In this way, we can include in the model the generation of endogenous crisis due to the implied structural change, technological unemployment, and potential lack of aggregate demand creating the condition for cyclical endogenous crises reproduced in this artificial economy.

Keywords: agent-based models, behavioral macro, macroeconomic forecasting, micro data

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Authors: Khizar Z. Choudhrya, Richard Coles, Salman Qureshi, Robert Ashford, Salim Khan, Rabia R. Mir

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Abstract: The majority of existing landscape research has been derived by conducting heuristic evaluations, without having empirical insight of real participant visual response. In this research, a modern multimodal measurement approach (using narratives and eye tracking) was applied to investigate visual behaviour in perceiving naturalistic and urban environments. This research is unique in exploring gaze behaviour on environmental images possessing different levels of saliency. Eye behaviour is predominantly attracted by salient locations. The concept of methodology of this research on naturalistic and urban environments is drawn from the approaches in market research. Borrowing methodologies from market research that examine visual responses and qualities provided a critical and hitherto unexplored approach. This research has been conducted by using mixed methodological quantitative and qualitative approaches. On the whole, the results of this research corroborated existing landscape research findings, but they also identified potential refinements. The research contributes both methodologically and empirically to human-environment interaction (HEI). This study focused on initial impressions of environmental images with the help of eye tracking. Taking under consideration the importance of the image, this study explored the factors that influence initial fixations in relation to expectations and preferences. In terms of key findings of this research it is noticed that each participant has his own unique navigation style while surfing through different elements of landscape images. This individual navigation style is given the name of ‘visual signature’. This study adds the necessary clarity that would complete the picture and bring an insight for future landscape researchers.

Keywords: human-environment interaction (HEI), multimodal measurement, narratives, eye tracking

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Authors: Tasawar Ashraf

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The paper argues that the European Union’s securitized recourse to migration management which is lacking on the principle of solidarity has enhanced the sufferings of the asylum seekers by influencing the asylum policies of the non-EU states in the Eastern Mediterranean. The research critically analyses the development of the Turkish Asylum Policy and advocates that due to extraordinary burden of refugees and conceivable chances of getting EU membership, Turkey is developing its asylum policy essentially on the footprints of the EU. Such political and economic domination of the EU are resulting in the development of broader securitized migration zone in the EU and MENA region. Therefore, this paper critically analyses two interconnected issues, i.e., securitization of the migration in the EU and MENA region and the deficiency of the principle of solidarity and burden sharing in the European Agenda on Migration and how it reflects on Turkish asylum policy. This paper suggests that the EU must adopt a more generous resettle scheme ensuring the division of the refugee burden on all member and regional states by considering different political, social, and economic factors. Only such corporation can increase the pool of refugee hosting states by collaborating with the regional states to develop their asylum systems in accordance with international law.

Keywords: European Agenda on Migration (EAM), EU, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU)

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Authors: Umadevi B., Dinesh P. A., Indira. R., Vinay C. V.

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A mathematical model is developed to study the simultaneous effects of particle drag and slip parameter on the velocity as well as rate of flow in an annular cross sectional region bounded by two eccentric cylinders. In physiological flows this phenomena can be observed in an eccentric catheterized artery with inner cylinder wall is impermeable and outer cylinder wall is permeable. Blood is a heterogeneous fluid having liquid phase consisting of plasma in which a solid phase of suspended cells and proteins. Arterial wall gets damaged due to aging and lipid molecules get deposited between damaged tissue cells. Blood flow increases towards the damaged tissues in the artery. In this investigation blood is modeled as two phase fluid as one is a fluid phase and the other is particulate phase. The velocity of the fluid phase and rate of flow are obtained by transforming eccentric annulus to concentric annulus with the conformal mapping. The formulated governing equations are analytically solved for the velocity and rate of flow. The numerical investigations are carried out by varying eccentricity parameter, slip parameter and drag parameter. Enhancement of slip parameter signifies loss of fluid then the velocity and rate of flow will be decreased. As particulate drag parameter increases then the velocity as well as rate flow decreases. Eccentricity facilitates transport of more fluid then the velocity and rate of flow increases.

Keywords: catheter, slip parameter, drag parameter, eccentricity

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Authors: Ebrahim Rahmani, Siyamak Moazeni

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According to the Iraq's first constitutional law (approved 2005), Iraq is an independent with sovereignty and its governmental structure is parliamentary democratic republic and federal. Even in reforms in 2009, this article of law did not changed at all. But considering the existence of this emphasis and clarity which is mentioned in the law, different and sometimes contradictory interpretations and positions are expressed about federalism in the way that we can say, considering the importance of the matter, federalism is a focus point to create and expansion of the cold war among leaders of different groups of the country. Iraq's today political and security position has granted the suitable opportunity to Iraq's Kurdistan in appearing of the recent security crisis to increase its share from the central political power or to achieve to its independent dream. The federalism the weakest point of Iraq's territorial integrity in a way that if different groups do not come to a consensus about it and do not think about a mechanism which is accepted by all of them, this can effect on and Iraq's political stability and security. Iraq's Kurdistan follows the option of disintegration and separation under the shadow of political and security changes, even with existence of some Iraqi groups' hopes regarding the improvement of situation after parliament election and also considering Masoud Barezani's power will for separation from Iraq as well as regarding special international changes and disintegration of Karime from Ukraine and ISIS crises; concerns have been created among regional and international powers and interior players. In this article, a paradox due constitutional law about federalism, Iraq's central government view and its politicians to the matter and the regional effect of this action on region's geopolitics are reviewed as well.

Keywords: constitutional law, federalism, decomposition, Iraq's Kurdistan

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Authors: Usman B.M., Basheer O. B., . Ahmed A., Amali N. U., Taufeeq O.

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This study presents an investigation into the improvement of strength properties of concrete using egg shell powder (ESP) and groundnut husk ash (GHA) as additives so as to reduce its high cost and find alternative disposal method for agricultural waste. A standard consistency test was carried out on the egg shell powder and groundnut husk ash. A prescribed concrete mix ratio of 1:2:4 concrete cubes (150mm by 150mm) and water-cement ratio of 0.6 were casted. A total of One hundred and forty four (144) cubes were cast and cured for 3, 7 and 28 days and compressive strength subsequently determined in comparison with the relevant specifications. Consistency test on the cement paste at the various concentrations exhibited an increase in the setting time as the concentration increases with the highest value recorded at 5% egg shell powder and groundnut husk ash concentration as 219 minutes for the initial setting time and 275 minutes for the final setting time as against the control specimen of 159 minutes and 234 minutes for both initial and final setting times respectively. The results of the investigations showed that GHA was predominantly of Silicon oxide (56.73%) and a combined SiO₂, Al₂O₃ and Fe₂O₃ content of 66.75%; and the result of the investigations showed that ESP was predominantly of Calcium oxide (52.75%) and a combined SiO₂, Al₂O₃ and Fe₂O₃ content of 3.86%. The addition of GHA and ESP in concrete showed slight different in compressive strength with increase in GHA and ESP additive up to 5% and high decrease in compressive strength with further increase in GHA and ESP content. The 28 days compressive strength of the concrete cubes; compared with that of the control; showed a slight increase. Thus the use of GHA and ESP as partial replacement of cement will provide an economic use of by-product and consequently produce a cheaper concrete construction without comprising its strength

Keywords: additive, concrete, eggshell powder, groundnut husk ash compressive strength

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Authors: Anas Ali

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The British administration at Malabar, the southern coastal commercial outpost in the Indian Subcontinent, faced with a series of perpetual revolts from the Mappila Muslim peasants during the last decades of the 19th and early decades of the 20th century. The control of Malabar region was a concern for the British administrators as the region was a prime centre of spice trade and plantation products. The Madras government set up a special police battalion called the Malabar Special Police in 1884 and summoned different army battalions to Malabar to crush the revolts. The setting up of army camps in the rural Malabar led to the diffusion of modern sports as the army men played different games in the garrisons and with the local people. For the imperial army men deployed in Malabar, sports acted as a viable medium to strengthen solidarity with other European settlers. They actively participated in the ‘Canterbury Week’, an annual sporting event organized by the European planters and organized tournaments among themselves. This paper would argue that, sports enabled the imperial army men, European planters and British administrators to build camaraderie that enabled them to manifest their imperial solidarity during the time of these constant revolts. Based on newspaper reports and colonial memoirs, this paper would look at how modern sports enabled the imperial army men to be ‘good in health’ and create a feeling of ‘being at home’ during this period.

Keywords: imperial army, Malabar, modern sports, mutiny

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Authors: Hamid Reza Behnood, Esmaeel Ayati, Tom Brijs, Mohammadali Pirayesh Neghab

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Investment projects in road safety planning can benefit from an effectiveness evaluation regarding their expected safety outcomes. The objective of this study is to develop a decision support system (DSS) to support policymakers in taking the right choice in road safety planning based on the efficiency of previously implemented safety measures in a set of regions in Iran. The measures considered for each region in the study include performance indicators about (1) police operations, (2) treated black spots, (3) freeway and highway facility supplies, (4) speed control cameras, (5) emergency medical services, and (6) road lighting projects. To this end, inefficiency measure is calculated, defined by the proportion of fatality rates in relation to the combined measure of road safety performance indicators (i.e., road safety measures) which should be minimized. The relative inefficiency for each region is modeled by the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique. In a next step, a fuzzy decision-making system is constructed to convert the information obtained from the DEA analysis into a rule-based system that can be used by policy makers to evaluate the expected outcomes of certain alternative investment strategies in road safety.

Keywords: performance indicators, road safety, decision support system, data envelopment analysis, fuzzy reasoning

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Authors: Jeremy Schultz

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The purpose of this study was to understand the perceptions of vineyard managers in the Krasnodar Region of Southern Russia located between the city of Kransnodar and the Black Sea. In recent years, wine tourism throughout the region has seen tremendous growth due in part to the concurrent growth in the number of tourists vacationing at the Black Sea. This trend has contributed to the development of large-scale wine operations developing in numerous rural locations along the tourists’ travel path. Niche areas of tourism, such as wine tourism, have proven to provide economic viability for rural communities all around the world. Understanding their shared group characteristics while honoring their unique qualities as individuals aids in responsible wine tourism development that provides a sense of well-being for the communities and stakeholders involved. Semi-structured interviews and lived experience methodologies were used in locations that were associated with wine food tourism operations. By understanding management perspectives, it lends insight into sustainable destination management and wine tourism product development, furthering our progress toward ethical, responsible, and financially feasible operations. This research also represents a collaborative effort between Russia and the United States that supports an agenda of sustainable destination development and management. As a global community, we need to continue to investigate stakeholder perceptions and strategic management techniques that best support the pillars upon which responsible tourism was founded.

Keywords: wine tourism, tourism development, Russia, rural tourism

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Authors: Lynamata Chhun

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Human Rights enforcement in the newly independent countries like Asian and African has always been penetrating issues. In spite, the existing of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), regions like Africa and Asia where values and cultural norms far differ from the concept had formed their own Human Rights instruments to tackle Human Rights issues in their regions instead of embracing the concept of UDHR completely. ASEAN Human Rights Declaration is one of the examples. This paper aims to examine the enforcement of Human Rights in South East Asia in the context of ASEAN regional integration. Precisely, the author attempts to analyse the effectiveness in undertaking Human Rights issues in the region by applying both the existing international and regional frameworks using the Myanmar Rohingya Crisis as the case study. The methodology of the paper is qualitative analysis where cross-impact analysis is employed to examine the case study. It is anticipated that the main findings of this paper will illuminate how applicable the international instruments are in comparison to the regional instruments in apprehending the human rights issues and will shed light on how ASEAN and dialogue partners should cooperate in the future regarding with the challenging issues of Human Rights in the region.

Keywords: ASEAN Human Rights Declaration, ASEAN integration, ASEAN way, international and regional instruments, Universal Declaration of Human Rights

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Authors: Jungkyun Na, Jaesang Lee, Yang Mo Koo

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In this study to find a replacement for expensive secondary recrystallization in GO electrical steel production, effect of heat treatment on the formation of columnar grain and Goss texture is investigated. The composition of the sample is Fe-2.0Si-0.2C. This process involves repeating of cold rolling and decarburization as a replacement for secondary recrystallization. By cold-rolling shear band is made and Goss grain grows from shear band by decarburization. By doing another cold rolling, some Goss texture is newly formed from the shear band, and some Goss texture is retained in microbands. To determine whether additional heat treatment with H2 atmosphere is needed on decarburization process for growth of Goss texture, comparing between decarburization and heat treatment with H2 atmosphere is performed. Also, to find optimum condition for heat treatment, heat treatment with various time and temperature is performed. It was found that increase in the number of cold rolling and heat treatment increases Goss texture. Both high Goss texture and good columnar structure is achieved at 900℃, and this temperature is within a+r phase region. Heat treatment at a temperature higher than a+r phase region caused carbon diffusion and this made layer with Goss grain decrease.

Keywords: electrical steel, Goss texture, columnar structure, normal grain growth

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Authors: Rami Hashish, Manon Limousis-Gayda, Caitlin McCleery

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Introduction: Mild traumatic brain injuries, also referred to as concussions, represent an increasing burden to society. Due to limited objective diagnostic measures, concussions are diagnosed by assessing subjective symptoms, often leading to disputes to their presence. Common biomechanical measures associated with concussion are high linear and/or angular acceleration to the head. With regards to linear acceleration, approximately 80g’s has previously been shown to equate with a 50% probability of concussion. Motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) are a leading cause of concussion, due to high head accelerations experienced. The change in velocity (delta-V) of a vehicle in an MVC is an established metric for impact severity. As acceleration is the rate of delta-V with respect to time, the purpose of this paper is to determine the relation between delta-V (and occupant parameters) with linear head acceleration. Methods: A meta-analysis was conducted for manuscripts collected using the following keywords: head acceleration, concussion, brain injury, head kinematics, delta-V, change in velocity, motor vehicle collision, and rear-end. Ultimately, 280 studies were surveyed, 14 of which fulfilled the inclusion criteria as studies investigating the human response to impacts, reporting head acceleration, and delta-V of the occupant’s vehicle. Statistical analysis was conducted with SPSS and R. The best fit line analysis allowed for an initial understanding of the relation between head acceleration and delta-V. To further investigate the effect of occupant parameters on head acceleration, a quadratic model and a full linear mixed model was developed. Results: From the 14 selected studies, 139 crashes were analyzed with head accelerations and delta-V values ranging from 0.6 to 17.2g and 1.3 to 11.1 km/h, respectively. Initial analysis indicated that the best line of fit (Model 1) was defined as Head Acceleration = 0.465

Keywords: acceleration, brain injury, change in velocity, Delta-V, TBI

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Authors: Hashem Dadashpoor, Sadegh Saeidi Shirvan

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While with the evolution of the economy towards a knowledge-based economy, innovation is a requirement for metropolitan regions, the adoption of an open innovation strategy is an option and a requirement for many industrial firms in these regions. Studies show that investing in research and development units cannot alone increase innovation. Within the framework of the theory of learning regions, this gap, which scholars call it the ‘innovation gap’, is filled with regional features of firms. This paper attempts to investigate the factors affecting the open innovation of firms in metropolitan regions, and it searches for these in territorial innovation models and, in particular, the theory of learning regions. In the next step, the effect of identified factors which is considered as regional learning factors in this research is analyzed on the innovation of sample firms by SPSS software using multiple linear regression. The case study of this research is constituted of industrial enterprises from two groups of food industry and auto parts in Toos industrial town in Mashhad metropolitan region. For data gathering of this research, interviews were conducted with managers of industrial firms using structured questionnaires. Based on this study, the effect of factors such as size of firms, inter-firm competition, the use of local labor force and institutional infrastructures were significant in the innovation of the firms studied, and 44% of the changes in the firms’ innovation occurred as a result of the change in these factors.

Keywords: regional knowledge networks, learning regions, interactive learning, innovation

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Authors: Hassan M. Al-Ahmadi

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The fatality index (deaths/100 K population) due to road traffic accidents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is over 25, according to the World Health Organization Statistics (WHO) statistics, which is much higher than in the neighboring Arab regions. The KSA has implemented measures to mitigate traffic accidents by enforcing road safety regulations. As a result, there has been a slight decline in the frequency of road traffic accidents within the Kingdom. This study was based on the variations in the accidents for three provinces of KSA, i.e., Riyadh, Eastern Province (EP), & Qaseem, for 2016 and 2017 using ANOVA method. Data appropriateness for the ANOVA method was confirmed by the normality and the randomness of residuals. Additionally, the half-normal plot was used to identify the significant terms for the ANOVA analysis. The analysis revealed that the accidents in the EP were significantly higher than in the other two provinces during the analysis period. The monthly variation showed a spike in the accidents from month 7th to 9th month in the EP region and a slight drop in the accidents in the Qaseem and the Riyadh region during the same period, which was attributed to the increased leisure travels from the other regions to the EP. Furthermore, most of the accidents were found to occur in the age group of 18+ and 30+, and also the major reduction of accidents in 2017 as compared to 2016 was found to have occurred in the same group. These findings can be beneficial for developing strategies to further reduce the number of accidents.

Keywords: fatality index, emergency, road traffic accident, safety, leisure travels

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