Search results for: operational risk

Authors: Claudia Seabra, Elisabeth Kastenholz, José Luís Abrantes, Manuel Reis

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In a world of increasing mobility and global risks, terrorism has, in a perverse way, capitalized on contemporaneous society’s growing interest in travel to explore a world whose national boundaries and distances have decreased. Terrorists have identified the modern tourist flows originated from the economically more developed countries as new appealing targets so as to: i) call attention to the causes they defend and ii) destroy a country’s foundations of tourism, with the final aim of disrupting the economic and consequently social fabric of the affected countries. The present study analyses sensitivity towards risk and travel behaviors in international travel amongst a sample of 600 international tourists from 49 countries travelling by air. Specifically, the sample was segmented according to the Global Peace Index. This index defines country profiles regarding the levels of peace. The indicators used are established over three broad themes: i) ongoing domestic and international conflict; ii) societal safety and security; and iii) militarisation. Tourists were segmented, according to their country of origin, in different levels of peacefulness. Several facets of travel behavior were evaluated, namely motivations, attitude towards trip planning, quality perception and perceived value of the trip. Also factors related with risk perception were evaluated, specifically terrorism risk perception during the trip, unsafety sensation as well as importance attributed to safety in travel. Results contribute to our understanding of the role of previous exposure to the lack of peace and safety at home in the international tourists behaviors, which is further discussed in terms of tourism management and marketing implications which should particularly interest tourism services and destinations more affected by terrorism, war, political turmoil, crime and other safety risks.

Keywords: terrorism, tourism, safety, risk perception

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Authors: Saiakhil Chilaka

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Juvenile recidivism presents a significant challenge to the criminal justice system, impacting both the individuals involved and broader societal safety. This study aims to identify the key factors influencing recidivism and successful rehabilitation outcomes by utilizing a dataset of over 25,000 individuals from the NIJ Recidivism Challenge. We employed machine learning techniques, particularly Random Forest Classification, combined with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for model interpretability. Our findings indicate that supervision risk score, percent days employed, and education level are critical factors affecting recidivism, with higher levels of supervision, successful employment, and education contributing to lower recidivism rates. Conversely, Gang Affiliation emerged as a significant risk factor for reoffending. The model achieved an accuracy of 68.8%, highlighting its utility in identifying high-risk individuals and informing targeted interventions. These results suggest that a comprehensive approach involving personalized supervision, vocational training, educational support, and anti-gang initiatives can significantly reduce recidivism and enhance rehabilitation outcomes for juveniles, providing critical insights for policymakers and juvenile justice practitioners.

Keywords: juvenile, justice system, data analysis, SHAP

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Authors: M. A. Peribanez, G. Illan, I. De Blas, A. Muniesa, I. Ruiz-Zarzuela

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Intensive aquaculture is commonly associated with increased incidence of parasites. However, in Spain, the recent intensification of cyprinid production has not led to knowledge of the parasites that develop in the aquaculture facilities, the factors that affect their development and spread and the transmission between wild and cultivated fish species. The present study focuses on the knowledge of environmental factors, as well as host dependent factors, and their possible influence as risk factors in the incidence and intensity of parasitic infections. This work was conducted in the Duero River Basin, NW Spain. A total of 114 tenches (Tinca tinca) were caught in a fish farm and 667 specimens belonging to six species of cyprinid, not tench, in five rivers. An exhaustive search and microscopic identification of protozoa on skin and gills were carried out. Physical, chemical, and biological parameters of water samples from the capture points were determined. Only two ectoprotozoa were identified, Ichthyophthirius multifiliis and Tripartiella sp. In I. multifiliis, a high intensity of infection (more than 40 parasites on the body surface and more than 80 on gills) was determined in farmed tench (14%) and in Iberian barbel (Luciobarbus bocagei) (91%) and Duero nase (Pseudochondrostoma duriense) (71%) of middle stretches of rivers. The prevalence was similar between farmed tenches and cyprinids of middle courses. Tripartiella sp. was only found in barbels (prevalence in middle stretches, 0.7%) and in farmed tenches (63%), this species resulting in a high risk factor (odds ratio, OR= 1143) in the presence of the ciliate. There were no differences between the two species relative to the intensity of parasitization. Some of the physical, chemical and microbiological water quality parameters appear to be risk factors in the presence of I. multifiliis, with maximum OR of 8. Nevertheless, in Tripartiella sp., the risk is multiplied by 720 when the pH value exceeds 8.4, if we consider the total of the data, and it is increased more than 500 times if we only consider the values recorded in the fish farm (529 by nitrates > 3 mg/l; 530 by total coliforms > 100 CFU/100 ml). However, the high prevalence and risk of infection by I. multifiliis and Tripartiella sp. in fish farms should be related to environmental factors that dependent upon sampling point rather than in direct influence of the physical-chemical and biological parameters of the water. The high pH value recorded in the fish farm (9.62 ± 0.76) is the only parameter that we consider may have a substantial direct influence. Chronic exposure to alkaline pH levels can be a chronic stress generator, predisposing to parasitization by Tripartiella sp. In conclusion, often minor changes in ecosystem conditions, both natural and man-made, can modify the host-parasite relationship, resulting in an increase in the prevalence and intensity of parasitic infections in populations of cyprinids, sometimes causing disease outbreaks.

Keywords: cyprinids, fish, parasites, protozoa, risk factors

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Authors: Francesco Pandolfi, Georgios Baltzopoulos, Iunio Iervolino

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The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications.

Keywords: component wind fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, vulnerability model, wind-induced losses

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Authors: Ayedun Hassan, Ayadi Odunayo Peter

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The ancient city of Abeokuta has been supplied with pipe borne water since 1911, yet, a continuous increase in population and unplanned city expansion makes water a very precious and scarce commodity. The government reserved areas (GRA’s) are well planned, and public water supply is available; however, the sub-urban areas consist of scattered structures with individuals trying to source water by digging wells and boreholes. The geology of the city consists of basement rock which makes digging wells and boreholes very difficult. The present study was conducted to assess the risk arising from the consumption of toxic elements in the groundwater of Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria. Forty-five groundwater samples were collected from nine different areas of Abeokuta and analyzed for physicochemical parameters and toxic elements. The physicochemical parameters were determined using standard methods, while the toxic elements were determined using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometer (ICP/MS). Ninety-six percent (96%) of the water sample has pH < 6.5, and 11% has conductivity > 250 µSCm⁻¹ limits in drinking water as recommended by WHO. Seven percent (7%) of the samples have Pb concentration >10 µgL⁻¹ while 75% have Al concentration >200 µgL⁻¹ recommended by WHO. The order for risk of cancer from different area of Abeokuta are Cd²⁺ > As³⁺ > Pb²⁺ > Cr⁶⁺ for Funaab, Camp and Obantoko; As³⁺ > Cd²⁺ > Pb²⁺ > Cr⁶⁺ for Ita Osin, Isale Igbein, Ake and Itoku; Cd²⁺ >As > Cr⁶⁺ > Pb²⁺ for Totoro; Pb²⁺ > Cd²⁺ > As³⁺ > Cr⁶⁺ for Idiaba. The order of non-cancer hazard index (HI) calculated for groundwater of Abeokuta City are Cd²⁺ > As³⁺ > Mn²⁺ > Pb²⁺ > Ni²⁺ and were all greater than one, which implies susceptibility to other illnesses. The sources of these elements are the rock and inappropriate waste disposal method, which leached the elements into the groundwater. A combination of sources from food will accumulate these elements in the human body system. Treatment to remove Al and Pb is necessary, while the method of water distribution should be reviewed to ensure access to potable water by the residents.

Keywords: Abeokuta, groundwater, Nigeria, risk

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Authors: Huma Naqeeb

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Epidemiological studies have shown the robust link between breast cancer and dietary pattern. There has been no previous study conducted in Pakistan, which specifically focuses on dietary patterns among breast cancer women. This study aims to examine the association of breast cancer with dietary patterns among Pakistani women. This case-control research was carried in multiple tertiary care facilities. Newly diagnosed primary breast cancer patients were recruited as cases (n = 408); age matched controls (n = 408) were randomly selected from the general population. Data on required parameters were systematically collected using subjective and objective tools. Factor and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) techniques were used to extract women’s dietary patterns. Four dietary patterns were identified based on eigenvalue >1; (i) veg-ovo-fish, (ii) meat-fat-sweet, (iii) mix (milk and its products, and gourds vegetables) and (iv) lentils - spices. Results of the multiple regressions were displayed as adjusted odds ratio (Adj. OR) and their respective confidence intervals (95% CI). After adjusted for potential confounders, veg-ovo-fish dietary pattern was found to be robustly associated with a lower risk of breast cancer among women (Adj. OR: 0.68, 95%CI: (0.46-0.99, p<0.01). The study findings concluded that attachment to the diets majorly composed of fresh vegetables, and high quality protein sources may contribute in lowering the risk of breast cancer among women.

Keywords: breast cancer, dietary pattern, women, principal component analysis

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Authors: Zhizhong Yuan, Lili Wang, Chenya Zheng, Wuqi Yang

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How to encourage and support peer-to-peer (P2P) network lending, and effectively monitor the risk of P2P network lending, has become the focus of the Chinese government departments, industrialists, experts and scholars in recent years. The reason is that this convenient online micro-credit service brings a series of credit risks and other issues. Avoiding the risks brought by the P2P network lending model, it can better play a benign role and help China's small and medium-sized private enterprises with vigorous development to solve the capital needs; otherwise, it will bring confusion to the normal financial order. As a form of financial services, P2P network lending has injected new blood into China's non-government finance in the past ten years, and has found a way out for idle funds and made up for the shortage of traditional financial services in China. However, it lacks feasible measures in credit evaluation and government supervision. This paper collects a large amount of data about P2P network lending of China. The data collection comes from the official media of the Chinese government, the public achievements of existing researchers and the analysis and collation of correlation data by the authors. The research content of this paper includes literature review; the current situation of China's P2P network lending development; the risk analysis of P2P network lending in China; the risk prevention strategy of P2P network lending in China. The focus of this paper is to try to find a specific program to strengthen supervision and avoid risks from the perspective of government regulators, operators of P2P network lending platform, investors and users of funds. These main measures include: China needs to develop self-discipline organization of P2P network lending industry and formulate self-discipline norms as soon as possible; establish a regular information disclosure system of P2P network lending platform; establish censorship of credit rating of borrowers; rectify the P2P network lending platform in compliance through the implementation of bank deposition. The results and solutions will benefit all the P2P network lending platforms, creditors, debtors, bankers, independent auditors and government agencies of China and other countries.

Keywords: peer-to-peer(P2P), regulation, risk prevention, supervision

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Authors: Collen Kawiya

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In an effort of reducing post-harvest losses and improving the supply of quality fish products in Malawi, the fish solar tent dryers have been designed in the southern part of Lake Malawi for processing small fish species under the project of Cultivate Africa’s Future (CultiAF). This study was done to promote the adoption of the fish solar tent dryers by the many small scale fish processors in Malawi through the assessment of the economic viability of these dryers. With the use of the project’s baseline survey data, a business model for a constructed ‘ready for use’ solar tent dryer was developed where investment appraisal techniques were calculated in addition with the sensitivity analysis. The study also conducted a risk analysis through the use of the Monte Carlo simulation technique and a probabilistic net present value was found. The investment appraisal results showed that the net present value was US$8,756.85, the internal rate of return was 62% higher than the 16.32% cost of capital and the payback period was 1.64 years. The sensitivity analysis results showed that only two input variables influenced the fish solar dryer investment’s net present value. These are the dried fish selling prices that were correlating positively with the net present value and the fresh fish buying prices that were negatively correlating with the net present value. Risk analysis results showed that the chances that fish processors will make a loss from this type of investment are 17.56%. It was also observed that there exist only a 0.20 probability of experiencing a negative net present value from this type of investment. Lastly, the study found that the net present value of the fish solar tent dryer’s investment is still robust in spite of any changes in the levels of investors risk preferences. With these results, it is concluded that the fish solar tent dryers in Malawi are an economically viable investment because they are able to improve the returns in the fish processing activity. As such, fish processors need to adopt them by investing their money to construct and use them.

Keywords: investment appraisal, risk analysis, sensitivity analysis, solar tent drying

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Authors: Abhishikta Ghosh Roy

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Breast cancer is the most common malignancy among women globally, including India. Human breast cancer results from the genetic and environmental interaction. The present study attempts to understand the molecular heterogeneity of BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes, as well as to understand the association of various lifestyle and reproductive variables for the Breast Cancer risk. The study was conducted amongst 110 patients and 128 controls with total DNA sequencing of flanking and coding regions of BRCA1 BRCA2 genes that revealed ten Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) (6 novels). The controls selected for the study were age, sex and ethnic group matched. After written and informed consent biological samples were collected from the subjects. After detailed molecular analysis, significant (p < 0.005) molecular heterogeneity is revealed in terms of SNPs in BRCA1 (4 Exonic & 1 Intronic) and BRCA2 (2exonic and 3 Intronic) genes. The augmentation study investigated significant (p < 0.05) association with positive family history, early age at menarche, irregular menstrual periods, menopause, prolong contraceptive use, nulliparity, history of abortions, consumption of alcohol and smoking for breast cancer risk. To the best of authors knowledge, this study is the first of its kind, envisaged that the identification of the SNPs and modification of the lifestyle factors might aid to minimize the risk among the Bengalee Hindu females.

Keywords: breast cancer, BRCA, lifestyle, India

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Authors: Victoria Bessonova, Robert Dorrell, Nina Dethlefs, Evdokia Tapoglou, Katharine York

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As the global pursuit of renewable energy intensifies, offshore wind farms have emerged as a promising solution to combat climate change. The global offshore wind installed capacity is projected to increase 56-fold by 2055. However, the impacts of climate change, particularly changes in wave climate, are not widely understood. Offshore wind installation and maintenance activities often require specific weather windows, characterized by calm seas and low wave heights, to ensure safe and efficient operations. However, climate change-induced alterations in wave characteristics can reduce the availability of suitable weather windows, leading to delays and disruptions in project timelines. it applied the operational limits of installation and maintenance vessels to past and future climate wave projections. This revealed changes in the annual and monthly accessibility of offshore wind farms at key global development locations. When accessibility is only defined by significant wave height, spatial patterns in the annual accessibility roughly follow changes in significant wave height, with increased availability where significant wave height is decreasing. This resulted in a 1-6% increase in Europe and North America and a similar decrease in South America, Australia and Asia. Monthly changes suggest unchanged or slightly decreased (1-2%) accessibility in summer months and increased (2-6%) in winter. Further assessment includes assessing the sensitivity of accessibility to operational limits defined by wave height combined with wave period and wave height combined with wind speed. Results of this assessment will be included in the presentation. These findings will help stakeholders inform climate change adaptations in installation and maintenance planning practices.

Keywords: climate change, offshore wind, offshore wind installation, operations and maintenance, wave climate, wind farm accessibility

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Authors: J. Vinay , Kusumbati Besra, Niharika Pattnaik, Shivaram Prasad Singh, Manjusha Dixit

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Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is rare but highly malignant cancer; its prevalence is more in certain geographical regions and ethnic groups, which include the Northern and Eastern states of India. Previous studies in India have reported genetic predisposition as one of the risk factors in GBC pathogenesis. Although the matrix metalloproteinase-14 (MMP14) is a well-known modulator of the tumor microenvironment and tumorigenesis and TCGA data also suggests its upregulation yet, its role in the genetic predisposition for GBC is completely unknown. We elucidated the role of MMP14 promoter variants as genetic risk factors and their implications in expression modulation. We screened MMP14 promoter variants association with GBC using Sanger’s sequencing in approximately 300 GBC and 300 control subjects and 26 GBC tissue samples of Indian ethnicity. The immunohistochemistry was used to check the MMP14 protein expression in GBC tissue samples. The role of promoter variants on expression levels was elucidated using a luciferase reporter assay. The variants rs1004030 (p-value = 0.0001) and rs1003349 (p-value = 0.0008) were significantly associated with gallbladder cancer. The luciferase assay in two different cell lines, HEK-293 (p = 0.0006) and TGBC1TKB (p = 0.0036) showed a significant increase in relative luciferase activity in the presence of risk alleles for both the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Similarly, genotype-phenotype correlation in patients samples confirmed that the presence of risk alleles at rs1004030 and rs1003349 increased MMP14 expression. Overall, this study unravels the genetic association of MMP14 promoter variants with gallbladder cancer, which may contribute to pathogenesis by increasing its expression.

Keywords: gallbladder cancer, matrix metalloproteinase-14, single nucleotide polymorphism, case control study, genetic association study

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Authors: I. Boroňová, J. Bernasovská, J. Kmec, E. Petrejčíková

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Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a severe cardiovascular disorder characterized by progressive systolic dysfunction due to cardiac chamber dilatation and inefficient myocardial contractility often leading to chronic heart failure. Recently, a genome-wide association studies (GWASs) on DCM indicate that the ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 single nucleotide polymorphism is associated with DCM. The aim of the study was to identify the distribution of ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism in 50 Slovak patients with DCM and 80 healthy control subjects using the Custom Taqman®SNP Genotyping assays. Risk factors detected at baseline in each group included age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, diabetes and blood pressure. The mean age of patients with DCM was 52.9±6.3 years; the mean age of individuals in control group was 50.3±8.9 years. The distribution of investigated genotypes of rs10927875 polymorphism within ZBTB17 gene in the cohort of Slovak patients with DCM was as follows: CC (38.8%), CT (55.1%), TT (6.1%), in controls: CC (43.8%), CT (51.2%), TT (5.0%). The risk allele T was more common among the patients with dilated cardiomyopathy than in normal controls (33.7% versus 30.6%). The differences in genotype or allele frequencies of ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism were not statistically significant (p=0.6908; p=0.6098). The results of this study suggest that ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism may be a risk factor for susceptibility to DCM in Slovak patients with DCM. Studies of numerous files and additional functional investigations are needed to fully understand the roles of genetic associations.

Keywords: ZBTB17 gene, rs10927875 polymorphism, dilated cardiomyopathy, cardiovascular disorder

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Authors: Samaneh Abolli, Kamyar Yaghmaeian, Ali Arab Aradani, Mahmood Alimohammadi

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The main route of fluoride uptake is drinking water. Fluoride absorption in the acceptable range (0.5-1.5 mg L-¹) is suitable for the body, but it's too much consumption can have irreversible health effects. To compare fluoride concentration with the WHO guidelines, 112 water samples were taken from groundwater aquifers in 22 villages of Garmsar County, the central part of Iran, during 2018 to 2019.Fluoride concentration was measured by the SPANDS method, and its non-carcinogenic impacts were calculated using EDI and HQ. The statistical population was divided into four categories of infant, children, teenagers, and adults. Linear regression and Spearman rank correlation coefficient tests were used to investigate the relationships between the well's depth and fluoride concentration in the water samples. The annual mean concentrations of fluoride in 2018 and2019 were 0.75 and 0.64 mg -¹ and, the fluoride mean concentration in the samples classifying the cold and hot seasons of the studied years was 0.709 and 0.689 mg L-¹, respectively. The amount of fluoride in 27% of the samples in both years was less than the acceptable minimum (0.5 mg L-¹). Also, 11% of the samples in2018 (6 samples) had fluoride levels higher than 1.5 mg L-¹. The HQ showed that the children were vulnerable; teenagers and adults were in the next ranks, respectively. Statistical tests showed a reverse and significant correlation (R2 = 0.02, < 0.0001) between well depth and fluoride content. The border between the usefulness/harmfulness of fluoride is very narrow and requires extensive studies.

Keywords: fluoride, groundwater, health risk assessment, hazard quotient, Garmsar

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Authors: Abdulquadri Ade Bilau, Richard Ajayi Jimoh, Adejoh Amodu Adaji

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The increasing exposures to natural hazards have continued to severely impair on the built environment causing huge fatalities, mass damage and destruction of housing and civil infrastructure while leaving psychosocial impacts on affected communities. The 2012 flood disaster in Nigeria which affected over 7 million inhabitants in 30 of the 36 states resulted in 363 recorded fatalities with about 600,000 houses and a number of civil infrastructure damaged or destroyed. In Kogi State, over 500 thousand people were displaced in 9 out of the 21 local government affected while Ibaji and Lokoja local governments were worst hit. This study identifies the causes and 2012 flood disasters and its effect on housing and livelihood. Personal observation and questionnaire survey were instruments used in carrying out the study and data collected were analysed using descriptive statistical tool. Findings show that the 2012 flood disaster was aided by the gap in hydrological data, sudden dam failure, and inadequate drainage capacity to reduce flood risk. The study recommends that communities residing along the river banks in Lokoja and Ibaji LGAs must be adequately educated on their exposure to flood hazard and mitigation and risk reduction measures such as construction of adequate drainage channel are constructed in affected communities.

Keywords: flood, hazards, housing, risk reduction, vulnerability

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Authors: Alvaro L. Ronco

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Background and purpose: Although our country is a developing one, it has a typical Western meat-rich dietary style. Based on estimates of heme and nonheme iron contents in representative foods, we carried out the present epidemiologic study, with the aim of accurately analyzing dietary iron and its role on CRC risk. Subjects/methods: Patients (611 CRC incident cases and 2394 controls, all belonging to public hospitals of our capital city) were interviewed through a questionnaire including socio-demographic, reproductive and lifestyle variables, and a food frequency questionnaire of 64 items, which asked about food intake 5 years before the interview. The sample included 1937 men and 1068 women. Controls were matched by sex and age (± 5 years) to cases. Food-derived nutrients were calculated from available databases. Total dietary iron was calculated and classified by heme or nonheme source, following data of specific Dutch and Canadian studies, and additionally adjusted by energy. Odds Ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated through unconditional logistic regression, adjusting for relevant potential confounders (education, body mass index, family history of cancer, energy, infusions, and others). A heme/nonheme (H/NH) ratio was created and the interest variables were categorized into tertiles, for analysis purposes. Results: The following risk estimations correspond to the highest tertiles. Total iron intake showed no association with CRC risk neither among men (OR=0.83, ptrend =.18) nor among women (OR=1.48, ptrend =.09). Heme iron was positively associated among men (OR=1.88, ptrend < .001) and for the overall sample (OR=1.44, ptrend =.002), however, it was not associated among women (OR=0.91, ptrend =.83). Nonheme iron showed an inverse association among men (OR=0.53, ptrend < .001) and the overall sample (OR=0.78, ptrend =.04), but was not associated among women (OR=1.46, ptrend =.14). Regarding H/NH ratio, risks increased only among men (OR=2.12, ptrend < .001) but lacked of association among women (OR=0.81, ptrend =.29). Conclusions. We have observed different types of associations between CRC risk and high dietary heme, nonheme and H/NH iron ratio. Therefore, the source of the available iron might be of importance as a link to colorectal carcinogenesis, perhaps pointing to reconsider the animal/plant proportions of this vital mineral within diet. Nevertheless, the different associations observed for each sex, demand further studies in order to clarify these points.

Keywords: chelation, colorectal cancer, heme, iron, nonheme

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Authors: Duchduen Bhanthumnavin

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One of the most important characteristics to increase competitive ability in undergraduate students after post COVID-19 era is goal setting and self-control. This correlational study aimes at investigating the influence of psycho-social antecedents on goal setting and self-control in 550 Thai university students. Results from multiple regression analysis revealed that the important predictors of this characteristic were reasoning ability, psychological immunity, attitudes toward competition, core self-evaluation, and family nurture, which yielded 54.28 predictive percentage in the total sample. Moreover, the analysis identified three at-risk groups, namely, male students, low GPA students, and students with siblings. Discussion and implications in general and for specific purposes for the at-risk groups were offered.

Keywords: antecedents, plan and self-control, predictors, university students

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Authors: Charawee Butbumrung

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The purpose of this study is to evaluate the monetary worthiness of investment and the usefulness of risk estimation as a tool employed by a production section of an electronic factory. This study employed the case study of accidents occurring in production areas. Data is collected from interviews with six production of safety coordinators and collect the information from the relevant section. The study will present the ratio of benefits compared with the operation costs for investment. The result showed that it is worthwhile for investment with the safety measures. In addition, the organizations must be able to analyze the causes of accidents about the benefits of investing in protective working process. They also need to quickly provide the manual for the staff to learn how to protect themselves from accidents and how to use all of the safety equipment.

Keywords: cost and benefit, enterprises in Thailand, investment in safety and health, risk estimation

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Authors: Byeongju Choi, Sanggil Lee, Kyung-Eun Lee

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Introduction: In the republic of Korea, the number of workers in the beauty industry has been increasing. Because the prevalence of hepatitis B carriers in Korea is higher than in other countries, the risk of blood-borne infection including viral hepatitis B and C, among the workers by using the sharp and contaminated instruments during procedure can be expected among beauty salon workers. However, the health care policies for the workers to prevent the blood-borne infection are not established due to the lack of evidences. Moreover, the workers in hair and nail salon were mostly employed at small businesses, where national mandatory systems or policies for workers’ health management are not applied. In this study, the risk of the viral hepatitis B and C from the job experiencing the hair and nail procedures in the mortality was assessed. Method: We conducted a retrospective review of the job histories and causes of death in the female deaths from 2006-2016. 132,744 of female deaths who had one more job experiences during their lifetime were included in this study. Job histories were assessed using the employment insurance database in Korea Employment Information Service (KEIS) and the causes of death were in death statistics produced by Statistics Korea. Case group (n= 666) who died from viral hepatitis was classified the death having record involved in ‘B15-B19’ as a cause of deaths based on Korean Standard Classification of Diseases(KCD) with the deaths from other causes, control group (n=132,078). The group of the workers in the beauty service industry were defined as the employees who had ever worked in the industry coded as ‘9611’ based on Korea Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) and others were others. Other than job histories, birth year, marital status, education level were investigated from the death statistics. Multiple logistic regression analysis were used to assess the risk of deaths from viral hepatitis in the case and control group. Result: The number of the deaths having ever job experiences at the hair and nail salon was 255. After adjusting confounders of age, marital status and education, the odds ratio(OR) for deaths from viral hepatitis was quite high in the group having experiences with working in the beauty service industry with 3.14(95% confidence interval(CI) 1.00-9.87). Other associated factors with increasing the risk of deaths from viral hepatitis were low education level(OR=1.34, 95% CI 1.04-1.73), married women (OR=1.42, 95% CI 1.02-1.97). Conclusion: The risk of deaths from viral hepatitis were high in the workers in the beauty service industry but not statistically significant, which might attributed from the small number of workers in beauty service industry. It was likely that the number of workers in beauty service industry could be underestimated due to their temporary job position. Further studies evaluating the status and the incidence of viral infection among the workers with consideration of the vertical transmission would be required.

Keywords: beauty service, viral hepatitis, blood-borne infection, viral infection

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Authors: Mohammad Alkhatatbeh, Nehad Ayoub, Nizar Mhaidat, Nesreen Saadeh, Lisa Lincz

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CD36 is involved in the development of atherosclerosis by enhancing macrophage endocytosis of oxidized-low density lipoproteins and foam cell formation. Soluble CD36 (sCD36) was found to be elevated in type 2 diabetic patients and was supposed to act as a marker of insulin resistance and atherosclerosis. In young subjects, sCD36 was associated with cardiovascular risk factors including obesity and hypertriglyceridemia. This study was conducted to further investigate the relationship between plasma sCD36 and cardiovascular risk factors among middle-aged patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and healthy controls. SCD36 concentrations were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) for 41 patients with MetS and 36 healthy controls. Data for other variables were obtained from patients' medical records. SCD36 concentrations were relatively low compared to most other studies and were not significantly different between the MetS group and controls (P-value=0.17). SCD36 was also not correlated with age, body mass index, glucose, lipid profile, serum electrolytes and blood counts. SCD36 was not significantly different between subjects with obesity, hyperglycemia, dyslipidemia, hypertension or cardiovascular disease and those without these abnormalities (P-value > 0.05). The inconsistency between results reported in this study and other studies may be unique to the study population or be a result of the lack of a reliable standardized method for determining absolute sCD36 concentrations. However, further investigations are required to assess CD36 tissue expression in the study population and to assess the accuracy of various commercially available sCD36 ELISA kits. Thus, the availability of a standardized simple sCD36 ELISA that could be performed in any basic laboratory would be more favorable to the specialized flow cytometry methods that detect CD36+ microparticles if it was to be used as a biomarker.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, CD36, cardiovascular risk, obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Essadik Kerkar, Abdelhamid Hebbouche

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According to the randomness of most of the factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam, probability theory is generally used to TESTING the risk of failure and there is a confusing logical transition from the state of stability failed state, so the stability failure process is considered as a probable event. The control of risk of product failures is of capital importance for the control from a cross analysis of the gravity of the consequences and effects of the probability of occurrence of identified major accidents and can incur a significant risk to the concrete dam structures. Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding the reliability and structural failure of the works, including when calculating stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of the reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case of the use of level II methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type FORM (First Order Reliability Method), SORM (Second Order Reliability Method). By way of comparison, a second level III method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involving an integration of the probability density function of, random variables are extended to the field of security by using of the method of Mont-Carlo simulations. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme the acting on the dam, calculation results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities thus causing a significant decrease in strength, especially in the presence of combinations of unique and extreme loads. Shear forces then induce a shift threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case THE increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, sliding, Taylor

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Authors: Fatemeh Abdollahi, Munn-Sann Lye, Jamshid Yazdani Charati, Mehran Zarghami

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Both obesity and intimate partner violence (IPV) are growing health threats. This study aimed to assess the prevalence and risk factors of both IPV and obesity and their association. In this cross-sectional study, 530 women aged 16-65 years attending Mazandaran primary health centers were recruited through the stratified random sampling method (2019-2020). Data were collected using the modified World Health Organization Domestic Violence questionnaire, Perceived Stress Scale, and socio-demographic, obstetric, and anthropometric questionnaires. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, the chi-square test, and multiple logistic regression. The prevalence of overweight, obesity and psychological, physical, and sexual IPV were 47.6%, 26.7%, 70.4%, 17.9%, and 6.4%, respectively. Increasing women’s educational level and exposure to violence during their lifespan increased the odds of any type of IPV while living in a nuclear family reduced it. In groups of women who were subjected to any type of IPV and only psychological IPV, experiencing violence during the lifespan was significant in predicting obesity. The alarming prevalence of IPV and obesity-overweight in this study points to the need for collaborative socio-political and health intervention. The link between experiencing violence during lifespan and obesity in some subgroups of women highlights the detrimental consequences of chronic violence and the urgent need for effective preventive programs.

Keywords: intimate partner violence, body mass index, obesity, risk factor, women

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Authors: Parvin Mirmiran, Zahra Bahadoran, Sahar Mirzae, Fereidoun Azizi

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Background and aim: Lifestyle factors, especially dietary intakes play an important role in metabolism of lipids and lipoproteins. In this study, we assessed the association between dietary factors and 3-year changes of serum triglycerides (TG), HDL-C and the atherogenic index of plasma among Iranian adults. This longitudinal study was conducted on 1938 subjects, aged 19-70 years, who participated in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. Demographics, anthropometrics and biochemical measurements including serum TG were assessed at baseline (2006-2008) and after a 3-year follow-up (2009-2011). Dietary data were collected by using a 168-food item, validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire at baseline. The risk of hypertriglyceridemia in the quartiles of dietary factors was evaluated using logistic regression models with adjustment for age, gender, body mass index, smoking, physical activity and energy intakes. Results: Mean age of the participants at baseline was 41.0±13.0 y. Mean TG and HDL-C at baseline was 143±86 and 42.2±10.0 mg/dl, respectively. Three-year change of serum TG were inversely related energy intake from phytochemical rich foods, whole grains, and legumes (P<0.05). Higher intakes compared to lower ones of dietary fiber and phytochemical-rich foods had similar impact on decreased risk of hyper-triglyceridemia (OR=0.58, 95% CI=0.34-1.00). Higher- compared to lower-dietary sodium to potassium ratios (Na/K ratio) increased the risk of hypertriglyceridemia by 63% (OR=0.1.63, 95% CI= 0.34-1.00). Conclusion: Findings showed that higher intakes of fiber and phytochemical rich foods especially whole grain and legumes could have protective effects against lipid disorders; in contrast higher sodium to potassium ratio had undesirable effect on triglycerides.

Keywords: lipid disorders, hypertriglyceridemia, diet, food science

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Authors: Ivonne N. Pérez-Sánchez. María L. Rascón- Gasca, Angélica Riveros-Rosas, Rebeca Robles García

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Introduction: Primary caregivers of cancer patients have health problems related to their lack of time, stress, and fiscal strain. Their health problems could affect their patients’ health and also increase the expenses in public health. Aim: To describe self-care and risk behaviors in a sample of Mexican primary caregiver and the relation of these behaviors with emotional distress (caregiver burden, anxiety and depression symptoms), coping and sociodemographic variables. Method: Participated in this study 173 caregivers of a third level reference medical facility (age: M=49.4, SD=13.5) females 78%, males 22%, 57.5% were caregivers of patients with terminal cancer (CPTC), and 40.5% were caregivers of patients on oncology treatment (CPOT). Results: The 75.7% of caregivers reported to have had health problem in last six months as well as several symptoms which were related to emotional distress, these symptoms were more frequently between CPTC and female caregivers. A half (47.3%) of sample reported have had difficulties in caring their health; these difficulties were related to emotional distress and lower coping, more affected caregivers were who attend male patients and CPTC. The 76.8% of caregivers had health problems in last six months, but 26.5% of them waited to search medical care until they were very sick, and 11% didn't do it. Also, more than a half of sample (56.1%) admitted to have risk behaviors as drink alcohol, smoke or overeating for feeling well, these caregivers showed high emotional distress and lower coping. About caregivers healthy behaviors, 80% of them had a hobby; 27.2% do exercise usually and between 12% to 60% did medical checkups (glucose tests, blood pressure and cholesterol tests, eye exams and watched their weight), these caregivers had lower emotional distress and high coping, some variables related health behaviors were: care only one patient or a female patient and be a CPOT, social support, high educational level and experience as a caregiver in past. The half of caregivers were worrying to develop cancer in the future; this idea was 2.5 times more frequent in caregiver with problems to care their health. Conclusions: The results showed a big proportion of caregivers with medical problems. High emotional distress and low coping were related to physical symptoms, risk behaviors, and low self-care; poor self-care was frequently even in caregiver who have chronic illness.

Keywords: cancer, primary caregiver, risk behaviors, self-care

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Authors: Mahmoud Hassanin, Amita Gupta

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Background: During current practice, Thiopentone is not cost-effectively added to resources wastage, risk of drug error with antibiotics, short shelf life, infection risk, and risk of delay while preparing during category one cesarean section. There is no significant difference or preference to the other alternative as per current use. Aims and Objectives: Patient safety, Cost-effective use of trust resources, problem awareness, Consider improvising on the current practice. Methods: In conjunction with the local department survey results, many studies support the change. Results: More than 50%(15 from 29) are already using Propofol, more than 75% of the participant are willing to shift to Propofol if it becomes standard, and the cost analysis also revealed that Thiopentone 10 X500=£60 Propofol 10X200= £5.20, Cost of Thiopentone/year =£2190. Approximately GA in a year =35-40 could cost approximately £20 Propofol, given it is a well-established practice. We could save not only money, but it will be environmentally friendly also to avoid adding any carbon footprints. Recommendation: Thiopentone is rarely used as an induction agent for the category one Caesarean section in our obstetric emergency theatres. Most obstetric anesthetists are using Propofol. Keep both Propofol and thiopentone(powder not withdrawn) in the cat one cesarean section emergency drugs tray ready until the department completely changes the practice protocol. A further retrospective study is required to compare the outcomes for these induction agents through the local database.

Keywords: thiopentone, propofol, category 1 caesarean, induction agents

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Authors: M. C. Arcuri, L. Gai, F. Ielasi

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Italian Central Guarantee Fund (CGF) has the purpose to facilitate Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)’ access to credit. The aim of the paper is to study the evaluation method adopted by the CGF with regard to SMEs requiring its intervention. This is even more important in the light of the recent CGF reform. We analyse an initial sample of more than 500.000 guarantees from 2012 to 2018. We distinguish between a counter-guarantee delivered to a mutual guarantee institution and a guarantee directly delivered to a bank. We investigate the impact of variables related to the operations and the SMEs on Altman Z’’-score and the score consistent with CGF methodology. We verify that the type of intervention affects the scores and the initial condition changes with the new assessment criterions. 

Keywords: banks, default risk, Italian guarantee fund, mutual guarantee institutions

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Authors: Maryam Vaezjalali, Foad Davoodbeglou, Mehrnaz Mesdaghi, Hossein Goudarzi, Fariba Shojaei, Hourieh Aram

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Introduction: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection causes chronic infection in human population, with high mortality. Some people are more susceptible to this infection. One of the high risk communities is mentally retarded children, who are institutionalized. Special conditions in these centers predispose children for HBV infection and transmission to healthy people. In this study our objective was to determine the prevalence of HBV infection among institutionalized mentally retarded children and study its associated risk factors. Materials and methods: In this study, 250 mentally retarded children (younger than 14 years old) were included. They were living in 5 nursing institutions, located in different parts of Tehran. HBsAg was measured in the sera of these patients by ELISA method. Results: Among 250 children, 20 children (8%) were HBsAg positive. HBV infection in girls was more than boys (11% to 5.6%). Among the types of mental retardation, children with cerebral palsy had the highest positive result for HBsAg. The most HBV infection (28.5%) was seen in children with longest duration of being institutionalized (10 to 11 years). Vaccinated children were more HBsAg positive (8.7%) than non-vaccinated children (5.3%). However, no significant relationship was observed between any of these factors and HBsAg positivity. Conclusion: Despite improvement of people’s health condition and implementation of HBV vaccination, the prevalence of HBV infection is high in institutionalized mentally retarded children, which highlights the need for active measures to reduce this infection among this high risk population.

Keywords: hepatitis B virus, HBV vaccine, intellectually disabled children, mentally retarded

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Authors: S. B. D. Samarasinghe, Malini Herath

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Participatory planning is a very important process for decision making and choosing the best alternative options for community welfare, development of the society and its interactions among community and professionals. People’s involvement is considered as the key guidance in participatory planning. Presently, Participatory planning is being used in many fields. It's not only limited to planning but also to disaster management, poverty, housing, etc. In the past, Disaster management practice was a top-down approach, but it raised many issues as it was converted to a bottom-up approach. There are several approaches that can aid disaster management. Community-Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) is a very successful participatory approach to risk management that is often successfully applied by other disaster-prone countries. In the local context, CBDRM has been applied to prevent Diseases as well as to prevent disasters such as landslides, tsunamis and floods. From three years before, Sri Lanka has initiated the CBDRM approach to minimize landslide vulnerability. Hence, this study mainly focuses on the impact of CBDRM approaches on landslide hazards. Also to identify their successes and failures from both implementing parties and community. This research is carried out based on a qualitative method combined with a descriptive research approach. A successful framework was prepared via a literature review. Case studies were selected considering landslide CBDRM programs which were implemented by Disaster Management Center and National Building Research Organization in Badulla. Their processes were evaluated. Data collection is done through interviews and informal discussions. Then their ideas were quantified by using the Relative Effectiveness index. The resulting numerical value was used to rank the program effectiveness and their success, failures and impacting factors. Results show that there are several failures among implementing parties and the community. Overcoming those factors can make way for better conduction of future CBDRM programs.

Keywords: community-based disaster risk management, disaster management, preparedness, landslide

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Authors: Mesias Alfeus, Kirsty Fitzhenry, Alessia Lederer

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The present paper provides empirical studies to estimate defaultable bonds in the South African financial market. The main goal is to estimate the unobservable factors affecting bond yields for South African major banks. The maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation methodology. Extended Kalman filtering techniques are employed in order to tackle the situation that the factors cannot be observed directly. Multi-dimensional Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR)-type factor models are considered. Results show that default risk increased sharply in the South African financial market during COVID-19 and the CIR model with jumps exhibits a better performance.

Keywords: default intensity, unobservable state variables, CIR, α-CIR, extended kalman filtering

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Authors: Tukeaban Hasanova, Jamila Imamalieva

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By the operational method, the problem on two-dimensional wave propagation in elastic medium excited by the round cylinder is solved. An analytical solution responding to instantaneous application of speed to the inclusion at its subsequent change is constructed. The two-dimensional problem on wave propagation in an elastic medium is considered.

Keywords: cylinder, inclusion, wave, elastic medium, speed

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Authors: Seyed Fakhroddin Hejazi, Mohammad Saleh Sadeghi, Leili Iranirad

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Silent myocardial infarction is defined as the appearance of pathological Q waves in the electrocardiogram, without objective signs of myocardial infarction and any minimal or atypical symptoms. Although this condition has been known for a long time, but little is known about its phenomenon and the mechanisms of it remain unclear. Its coincidence with stroke is also still controversial. This case report introduces a middle-aged man with silent myocardial infarction presented with homonymous hemianopia, which except stage 1 hypertension, had no other major cardiovascular risk factors including diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, family history of cardiac diseases and smoking. In conclusion, this case report indicated that existence of only one cardiovascular risk factor would lead to the development of MI or stroke.

Keywords: silent myocardial infarction, homonymous hemianopia, stroke, hypertension

Procedia PDF Downloads 288