Search results for: common space
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8899

Search results for: common space

7609 The Sensitivity of Credit Defaults Swaps Premium to Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Emerging Markets

Authors: Oguzhan Cepni, Doruk Kucuksarac, M. Hasan Yilmaz

Abstract:

Changes in the global risk appetite cause co-movement in emerging market risk premiums. However, the sensitivity of the changes in risk premium to the global risk appetite may vary across emerging markets. In this study, how the global risk appetite affects Credit Default Swap (CDS) premiums in emerging markets are analyzed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and rolling regressions. The PCA results indicate that the first common component derived by the PCA accounts for almost 76 percent of the common variation in CDS premiums. Additionally, the explanatory power of the first factor seems to be high over the sample period. However, the sensitivity to the global risk factor tends to change over time and across countries. In this regard, fixed effects panel regressions are used to identify the macroeconomic factors driving the heterogeneity across emerging markets. The panel regression results point to the significance of government debt to GDP and international reserves to GDP in explaining sensitivity. Accordingly, countries with lower government debt and higher reserves tend to be less subject to the variations in the global risk appetite.

Keywords: credit default swaps, emerging markets, principal components analysis, sovereign risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 361
7608 Social Vulnerability Mapping in New York City to Discuss Current Adaptation Practice

Authors: Diana Reckien

Abstract:

Vulnerability assessments are increasingly used to support policy-making in complex environments, like urban areas. Usually, vulnerability studies include the construction of aggregate (sub-) indices and the subsequent mapping of indices across an area of interest. Vulnerability studies show a couple of advantages: they are great communication tools, can inform a wider general debate about environmental issues, and can help allocating and efficiently targeting scarce resources for adaptation policy and planning. However, they also have a number of challenges: Vulnerability assessments are constructed on the basis of a wide range of methodologies and there is no single framework or methodology that has proven to serve best in certain environments, indicators vary highly according to the spatial scale used, different variables and metrics produce different results, and aggregate or composite vulnerability indicators that are mapped easily distort or bias the picture of vulnerability as they hide the underlying causes of vulnerability and level out conflicting reasons of vulnerability in space. So, there is urgent need to further develop the methodology of vulnerability studies towards a common framework, which is one reason of the paper. We introduce a social vulnerability approach, which is compared with other approaches of bio-physical or sectoral vulnerability studies relatively developed in terms of a common methodology for index construction, guidelines for mapping, assessment of sensitivity, and verification of variables. Two approaches are commonly pursued in the literature. The first one is an additive approach, in which all potentially influential variables are weighted according to their importance for the vulnerability aspect, and then added to form a composite vulnerability index per unit area. The second approach includes variable reduction, mostly Principal Component Analysis (PCA) that reduces the number of variables that are interrelated into a smaller number of less correlating components, which are also added to form a composite index. We test these two approaches of constructing indices on the area of New York City as well as two different metrics of variables used as input and compare the outcome for the 5 boroughs of NY. Our analysis yields that the mapping exercise yields particularly different results in the outer regions and parts of the boroughs, such as Outer Queens and Staten Island. However, some of these parts, particularly the coastal areas receive the highest attention in the current adaptation policy. We imply from this that the current adaptation policy and practice in NY might need to be discussed, as these outer urban areas show relatively low social vulnerability as compared with the more central parts, i.e. the high dense areas of Manhattan, Central Brooklyn, Central Queens and the Southern Bronx. The inner urban parts receive lesser adaptation attention, but bear a higher risk of damage in case of hazards in those areas. This is conceivable, e.g., during large heatwaves, which would more affect more the inner and poorer parts of the city as compared with the outer urban areas. In light of the recent planning practice of NY one needs to question and discuss who in NY makes adaptation policy for whom, but the presented analyses points towards an under representation of the needs of the socially vulnerable population, such as the poor, the elderly, and ethnic minorities, in the current adaptation practice in New York City.

Keywords: vulnerability mapping, social vulnerability, additive approach, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), New York City, United States, adaptation, social sensitivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 382
7607 ‘A Ghost of One’s Own’: Spectral Intrusions and Trauma in the Poetry of Joanna Baillie and Anne Bannerman

Authors: Elli Karampela

Abstract:

In Specters of Marx (1993), Jacques Derrida refers to the ghost as an Other presence that occupies the space of the self and emanates from there, haunting in its shadowy pastness and threatening/striving to break free. In times of change, ghosts both reflect the dissolution of set principles and voice traumas of the past that create a sense of fear and instability. This paper observes the way female ghosts create connections with the living in the poetry of Joanna Baillie and Anne Bannerman, both integral, albeit under-researched in different ways, writers of the English Romantic period working in the aftermath of the French Revolution. Especially at the beginning of the nineteenth century, when ghost narratives were devoured by readers and enjoyed as stories that re-awakened sensation in times of revolution, there was at the same time fear of intrusion by terror’s unruly forces that threatened to turn the readers restless. The ghost was particularly dangerous because it was associated with memory and the intrusion of past trauma in the here and now. As will be seen, both Baillie and Bannerman explore the idea of the female ghost’s ‘return’ (a Freudian term that will be approached) which breaks both time and space boundaries to raise the suppressed female voice, threaten stability, and correct wrongs. As a result, the varied manifestations of female ghosts render Baillie and Bannerman active in the contemporary discourse about human rights and the reclamation of the agency.

Keywords: poetry, romanticism, spectrality, trauma, women

Procedia PDF Downloads 194
7606 Suspended Nickel Oxide Nano-Beam and Its Heterostructure Device for Gas Sensing

Authors: Kusuma Urs M. B., Navakant Bhat, Vinayak B. Kamble

Abstract:

Metal oxide semiconductors (MOS) are known to be excellent candidates for solid-state gas sensor devices. However, in spite of high sensitivities, their high operating temperatures and lack of selectivity is a big concern limiting their practical applications. A lot of research has been devoted so far to enhance their sensitivity and selectivity, often empirically. Some of the promising routes to achieve the same are reducing dimensionality and formation of heterostructures. These heterostructures offer improved sensitivity, selectivity even at relatively low operating temperatures compared to bare metal oxides. Thus, a combination of n-type and p-type metal oxides leads to the formation of p-n junction at the interface resulting in the diffusion of the carriers across the barrier along with the surface adsorption. In order to achieve this and to study their sensing mechanism, we have designed and lithographically fabricated a suspended nanobeam of NiO, which is a p-type semiconductor. The response of the same has been studied for various gases and is found to exhibit selective response towards hydrogen gas at room temperature. Further, the same has been radially coated with TiO₂ shell of varying thicknesses, in order to study the effect of radial p-n junction thus formed. Subsequently, efforts have been made to study the effect of shell thickness on the space charge region and to shed some light on the basic mechanism involved in gas sensing of MOS sensors.

Keywords: gas sensing, heterostructure, metal oxide semiconductor, space charge region

Procedia PDF Downloads 117
7605 Socialist Ideology in Africa: A Comparative Study of Pre and Post Socialism

Authors: Haymanot Gebre-Amlak, Selamawit Gebre-Amlak

Abstract:

Since its original declaration in the 18th century, Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels's Communist Manifesto has become one of the most influential political tracts. Socialism is a political path that leads towards communism by fostering a cooperative economy through the creation of cooperative enterprises, common ownership, state ownership, or shared equity. The ultimate objective of communism is to bring everyone working toward the same collective goal of a healthy, happy, and free society. The European establishment of 19-century colonial rule over the continent of Africa reinforced inflows of European investment and forced a profound change in the operation of labor and land markets. The colonial era and forced labor schemes in Africa lasted for several decades. When exiting from colonialism, these African countries were attracted to socialism’s ideology to bridge the social gap and freedom to their society. In this paper, we compare a pre and post socialist ideology and the impact in various African countries. We analyse the different aspects, which led to inconsistent outcomes. Our finding indicates that while they have some facets in common, each African country had a unique interpretation and influence from the socialist ideology.

Keywords: African politics, socialism in Africa, African history, Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 152
7604 The Effect of Common Daily Schedule on the Human Circadian Rhythms during the Polar Day on Svalbard: Field Study

Authors: Kamila Weissova, Jitka Skrabalova, Katerina Skalova, Jana Koprivova, Zdenka Bendova

Abstract:

Any Arctic visitor has to deal with extreme conditions, including constant light during the summer season or constant darkness during winter time. Light/dark cycle is the most powerful synchronizing signal for biological clock and the absence of daily dark period during the polar day can significantly alter the functional state of the internal clock. However, the inner clock can be synchronized by other zeitgebers such as physical activity, food intake or social interactions. Here, we investigated the effect of polar day on circadian clock of 10 researchers attending the polar base station in the Svalbard region during July. The data obtained on Svalbard were compared with the data obtained before the researchers left for the expedition (in the Czech Republic). To determine the state of circadian clock we used wrist actigraphy followed by sleep diaries, saliva, and buccal mucosa samples, both collected every 4 hours during 24h-interval to detect melatonin by radioimmunoassay and clock gene (PER1, BMAL1, NR1D1, DBP) mRNA levels by RT-qPCR. The clock gene expression was analyzed using cosinor analysis. From our results, it is apparent that the constant sunlight delayed melatonin onset and postponed the physical activity in the same order. Nevertheless, the clock gene expression displayed higher amplitude on Svalbard compared to the amplitude detected in the Czech Republic. These results have suggested that the common daily schedule at the Svalbard expedition can strengthen circadian rhythm in the environment that is lacking light/dark cycle. In conclusion, the constant sunlight delays melatonin onset, but it still maintains its rhythmic secretion. The effect of constant sunlight on circadian clock can be minimalized by common daily scheduled activity.

Keywords: actighraph, clock genes, human, melatonin, polar day

Procedia PDF Downloads 156
7603 Sensitivity of Credit Default Swaps Premium to Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Emerging Markets

Authors: Oguzhan Cepni, Doruk Kucuksarac, M. Hasan Yilmaz

Abstract:

Risk premium of emerging markets are moving altogether depending on the momentum and shifts in the global risk appetite. However, the magnitudes of these changes in the risk premium of emerging market economies might vary. In this paper, we focus on how global risk factor affects credit default swaps (CDS) premiums of emerging markets using principal component analysis (PCA) and rolling regressions. PCA results indicate that the first common component accounts for almost 76% of common variation in CDS premiums of emerging markets. Additionally, the explanatory power of the first factor seems to be high over sample period. However, the sensitivity to the global risk factor tends to change over time and across countries. In this regard, fixed effects panel regressions are employed to identify the macroeconomic factors driving the heterogeneity across emerging markets. There are two main macroeconomic variables that affect the sensitivity; government debt to GDP and international reserves to GDP. The countries with lower government debt and higher reserves tend to be less subject to the variations in the global risk appetite.

Keywords: emerging markets, principal component analysis, credit default swaps, sovereign risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 367
7602 Patented Free-Space Optical System for Auto Aligned Optical Beam Allowing to Compensate Mechanical Misalignments

Authors: Aurelien Boutin

Abstract:

In optical systems such as Variable Optical Delay Lines, where a collimated beam has to go back and forth, corner cubes are used in order to keep the reflected beam parallel to the incoming beam. However, the reflected beam can be laterally shifted, which will lead to losses. In this paper, we report on a patented optical design that allows keeping the reflected beam with the exact same position and direction whatever the displacement of the corner cube leading to zero losses. After explaining how the optical design works and theoretically allows to compensate for any defects in the translation of the corner cube, we will present the results of experimental comparisons between a standard layout (i.e., only corner cubes) and our optical layout. To compare both optical layouts, we used a fiber-to-fiber coupling setup. It consists of a couple of lights from one fiber to the other, thanks to two lenses. The ensemble [fiber+lense] is fixed and called a collimator so that the light is coupled from one collimator to another. Each collimator was precisely made in order to have a precise working distance. In the experiment, we measured and compared the Insertion Losses (IL) variations between both collimators with the distance between them (i.e., natural Gaussian beam coupling losses) and between both collimators in the different optical layouts tested, with the same optical length propagation. We will show that the IL variations of our setup are less than 0.05dB with respect to the IL variations of collimators alone.

Keywords: free-space optics, variable optical delay lines, optical cavity, auto-alignment

Procedia PDF Downloads 82
7601 Modeling the International Economic Relations Development: The Prospects for Regional and Global Economic Integration

Authors: M. G. Shilina

Abstract:

The interstate economic interaction phenomenon is complex. ‘Economic integration’, as one of its types, can be explored through the prism of international law, the theories of the world economy, politics and international relations. The most objective study of the phenomenon requires a comprehensive multifactoral approach. In new geopolitical realities, the problems of coexistence and possible interconnection of various mechanisms of interstate economic interaction are actively discussed. Currently, the Eurasian continent states support the direction to economic integration. At the same time, the existing international economic law fragmentation in Eurasia is seen as the important problem. The Eurasian space is characterized by a various types of interstate relations: international agreements (multilateral and bilateral), and a large number of cooperation formats (from discussion platforms to organizations aimed at deep integration). For their harmonization, it is necessary to have a clear vision to the phased international economic relations regulation options. In the conditions of rapid development of international economic relations, the modeling (including prognostic) can be optimally used as the main scientific method for presenting the phenomenon. On the basis of this method, it is possible to form the current situation vision and the best options for further action. In order to determine the most objective version of the integration development, the combination of several approaches were used. The normative legal approach- the descriptive method of legal modeling- was taken as the basis for the analysis. A set of legal methods was supplemented by the international relations science prognostic methods. The key elements of the model are the international economic organizations and states' associations existing in the Eurasian space (the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the European Union (EU), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Chinese project ‘One belt-one road’ (OBOR), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), BRICS, etc.). A general term for the elements of the model is proposed - the interstate interaction mechanisms (IIM). The aim of building a model of current and future Eurasian economic integration is to show optimal options for joint economic development of the states and IIMs. The long-term goal of this development is the new economic and political space, so-called the ‘Great Eurasian Community’. The process of achievement this long-term goal consists of successive steps. Modeling the integration architecture and dividing the interaction into stages led us to the following conclusion: the SCO is able to transform Eurasia into a single economic space. Gradual implementation of the complex phased model, in which the SCO+ plays a key role, will allow building an effective economic integration for all its participants, to create an economically strong community. The model can have practical value for politicians, lawyers, economists and other participants involved in the economic integration process. A clear, systematic structure can serve as a basis for further governmental action.

Keywords: economic integration, The Eurasian Economic Union, The European Union, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, The Silk Road Economic Belt

Procedia PDF Downloads 138
7600 The Employees' Classification Method in the Space of Their Job Satisfaction, Loyalty and Involvement

Authors: Svetlana Ignatjeva, Jelena Slesareva

Abstract:

The aim of the study is development and adaptation of the method to analyze and quantify the indicators characterizing the relationship between a company and its employees. Diagnostics of such indicators is one of the most complex and actual issues in psychology of labour. The offered method is based on the questionnaire; its indicators reflect cognitive, affective and connotative components of socio-psychological attitude of employees to be as efficient as possible in their professional activities. This approach allows measure not only the selected factors but also such parameters as cognitive and behavioural dissonances. Adaptation of the questionnaire includes factor structure analysis and suitability analysis of phenomena indicators measured in terms of internal consistency of individual factors. Structural validity of the questionnaire was tested by exploratory factor analysis. Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization. Factor analysis allows reduce dimension of the phenomena moving from the indicators to aggregative indexes and latent variables. Aggregative indexes are obtained as the sum of relevant indicators followed by standardization. The coefficient Cronbach's Alpha was used to assess the reliability-consistency of the questionnaire items. The two-step cluster analysis in the space of allocated factors allows classify employees according to their attitude to work in the company. The results of psychometric testing indicate possibility of using the developed technique for the analysis of employees’ attitude towards their work in companies and development of recommendations on their optimization.

Keywords: involved in the organization, loyalty, organizations, method

Procedia PDF Downloads 342
7599 Significance of Architectural Conservation Today, For a Better Tomorrow

Authors: Sneha Manjunath

Abstract:

Architecture is a continuous process of evolution that keeps changing and evolving through time and gives rise to various design solutions based on the purpose of change and the present function of the space. This evolution in design has been happening for a long time and hence a variety of climate-responsive, context-responsive and human-responsive developments in habitats are witnessed. India has been one of the hot spots for the conservation of heritage and architecture. Buildings ranging from Indus-valley civilization to modern contemporary dwellings have all evolved in one or the other way. Various historical sites such as Hampi in Karnataka, Taj Mahal in Agra and various temples in Southern India are identified and preserved under the Archeological Survey of India. The main objective of such preservation is to help in protecting, preserving and keeping it intact for the future. Study of such heritage-rich buildings and building techniques helps us in understanding the psychology, lifestyle and socio-cultural impacts it had on the complete urban fabric that developed in a region. It also gives an insight into the occupation, economic status and religious beliefs that gave rise to a pattern in an urban form that was more inclusive and appropriate as per the need of the users. Today’s generation draws various inspirations from history with respect to space planning, building services such as lighting, ventilation and sanitation systems and elevation treatments. It is important to know and understand the importance of certain urban planning techniques used to develop ancient towns or cities in a radial pattern, square pattern, or checkered pattern depending on the need of the administrative set-up of the respective town or city. It is believed that every element of design undergoes evolution and it is important for a designer to know, respect and develop the same for the future so as to acknowledge and conserve every aspect of heritage that has been a backbone in urban form generation even today. Hampi in the Karnataka state of India is a very good example of how the monuments and dwellings from 14th Century still stand strong. Temples from North India, such as Kedarnath Temple, survived heavy floods because of their building techniques. Such building materials and construction techniques are to be revived and reused for a better perspective towards space planning in urbanized cities.

Keywords: architecture, urban form, heritage, town planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 102
7598 The Rise of Darknet: A Call for Understanding Online Communication of Terrorist Groups in Indonesia

Authors: Aulia Dwi Nastiti

Abstract:

A number of studies and reports on terrorism have continuously addressed the role of internet and online activism to support terrorist and extremist groups. In particular, they stress on social media’s usage that generally serves for the terrorist’s propaganda as well as justification of their causes. While those analyses are important to understand how social media is a vital tool for global network terrorism, they are inadequate to explain the online communication patterns that enable terrorism acts. Beyond apparent online narratives, there is a deep cyber sphere where the very vein of terrorism movement lies. That is a hidden space in the internet called ‘darknet’. Recent investigations, particularly in Middle Eastern context, have shed some lights that this invisible space in the internet is fundamental to maintain the terrorist activities. Despite that, limited number of research examines darknet within the issue of terrorist movements in Indonesian context—where the country is considered quite a hotbed for extremist groups. Therefore, this paper attempts to provide an insight of darknet operation in Indonesian cases. By exploring how the darknet is used by the Indonesian-based extremist groups, this paper maps out communication patterns of terrorist groups on the internet which appear as an intermingled network. It shows the usage of internet is differentiated in different level of anonymity for distinctive purposes. This paper further argues that the emerging terrorist communication network calls for a more comprehensive counterterrorism strategy on the Internet.

Keywords: communication pattern, counterterrorism, darknet, extremist groups, terrorism

Procedia PDF Downloads 276
7597 Testing of Canadian Integrated Healthcare and Social Services Initiatives with an Evidence-Based Case Definition for Healthcare and Social Services Integrations

Authors: S. Cheng, C. Catallo

Abstract:

Introduction: Canada's healthcare and social services systems are failing high risk, vulnerable older adults. Care for vulnerable older Canadians (65 and older) is not optimal in Canada. It does not address the care needs of vulnerable, high risk adults using a holistic approach. Given the growing aging population, and the care needs for seniors with complex conditions is one of the highest in Canada's health care system, there is a sense of urgency to optimize care. Integration of health and social services is an emerging trend in Canada when compared to European countries. There is no common and universal understanding of healthcare and social services integration within the country. Consequently, a clear understanding and definition of integrated health and social services are absent in Canada. Objectives: A study was undertaken to develop a case definition for integrated health and social care initiatives that serve older adults, which was then tested against three Canadian integrated initiatives. Methodology: A limited literature review was undertaken to identify common characteristics of integrated health and social care initiatives that serve older adults, and comprised both scientific and grey literature, in order to develop a case definition. Three Canadian integrated initiatives that are located in the province of Ontario, were identified using an online search and a screening process. They were surveyed to determine if the literature-based integration definition applied to them. Results: The literature showed that there were 24 common healthcare and social services integration characteristics that could be categorized into ten themes: 1) patient-care approach; 2) program goals; 3) measurement; 4) service and care quality; 5) accountability and responsibility; 6) information sharing; 7) Decision-making and problem-solving; 8) culture; 9) leadership; and 10) staff and professional interaction. The three initiatives showed agreement on all the integration characteristics except for those characteristics associated with healthcare and social care professional interaction, collaborative leadership and shared culture. This disagreement may be due to several reasons, including the existing governance divide between the healthcare and social services sectors within the province of Ontario that has created a ripple effect in how professions in the two different sectors interact. In addition, the three initiatives may be at maturing levels of integration, which may explain disagreement on the characteristics associated with leadership and culture. Conclusions: The development of a case definition for healthcare and social services integration that incorporates common integration characteristics can act as a useful instrument in identifying integrated healthcare and social services, particularly given the emerging and evolutionary state of this phenomenon within Canada.

Keywords: Canada, case definition, healthcare and social services integration, integration, seniors health, services delivery

Procedia PDF Downloads 142
7596 A Mathematical Analysis of a Model in Capillary Formation: The Roles of Endothelial, Pericyte and Macrophages in the Initiation of Angiogenesis

Authors: Serdal Pamuk, Irem Cay

Abstract:

Our model is based on the theory of reinforced random walks coupled with Michealis-Menten mechanisms which view endothelial cell receptors as the catalysts for transforming both tumor and macrophage derived tumor angiogenesis factor (TAF) into proteolytic enzyme which in turn degrade the basal lamina. The model consists of two main parts. First part has seven differential equations (DE’s) in one space dimension over the capillary, whereas the second part has the same number of DE’s in two space dimensions in the extra cellular matrix (ECM). We connect these two parts via some boundary conditions to move the cells into the ECM in order to initiate capillary formation. But, when does this movement begin? To address this question we estimate the thresholds that activate the transport equations in the capillary. We do this by using steady-state analysis of TAF equation under some assumptions. Once these equations are activated endothelial, pericyte and macrophage cells begin to move into the ECM for the initiation of angiogenesis. We do believe that our results play an important role for the mechanisms of cell migration which are crucial for tumor angiogenesis. Furthermore, we estimate the long time tendency of these three cells, and find that they tend to the transition probability functions as time evolves. We provide our numerical solutions which are in good agreement with our theoretical results.

Keywords: angiogenesis, capillary formation, mathematical analysis, steady-state, transition probability function

Procedia PDF Downloads 145
7595 The Effect of Institutions on Economic Growth: An Analysis Based on Bayesian Panel Data Estimation

Authors: Mohammad Anwar, Shah Waliullah

Abstract:

This study investigated panel data regression models. This paper used Bayesian and classical methods to study the impact of institutions on economic growth from data (1990-2014), especially in developing countries. Under the classical and Bayesian methodology, the two-panel data models were estimated, which are common effects and fixed effects. For the Bayesian approach, the prior information is used in this paper, and normal gamma prior is used for the panel data models. The analysis was done through WinBUGS14 software. The estimated results of the study showed that panel data models are valid models in Bayesian methodology. In the Bayesian approach, the effects of all independent variables were positively and significantly affected by the dependent variables. Based on the standard errors of all models, we must say that the fixed effect model is the best model in the Bayesian estimation of panel data models. Also, it was proved that the fixed effect model has the lowest value of standard error, as compared to other models.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, common effect, fixed effect, random effect, Dynamic Random Effect Model

Procedia PDF Downloads 60
7594 Intercultural Urbanism: Interpreting Cultural Inclusion in Traditional Precincts of Contemporary Cities: A Case of Mattancherry

Authors: Amrutha Jayan

Abstract:

The cities are attractors of the human population, offering opportunities for economic activities for different linguistic, cultural, and ethnic groups. The urban form and design of the city impact the life of these people. Social and cultural exclusions result in spatial segregation and gentrification. The spaces provided in cities must be inclusive for all these communities for them to feel part of the city and contribute to society. Intercultural urbanism is a theory and practice of city building, planning, and design of urban spaces and architectures that are cognizant of the social impact of the built environment. The postulate acknowledges cultural differences and opportunities for cultural exchange. Literature on intercultural urbanism, culture and space, spatial justice, and cultural inclusion are analyzed to identify parameters contributing to intercultural placemaking. A qualitative study on Mattancherry shows how the precinct has sustained throughout the years with different communities living together within a radius of 5 km, creating a diverse and vibrant environment. The research identifies the urban elements that contribute to intercultural interactions and maintain the synergy between these communities. The public spaces, porous edges, built-form, streets, and accessibility contribute to chance encounters and intercultural interactivity. The research seeks to find the factors that contribute to intercultural placemaking.

Keywords: intercultural urbanism, cultural inclusion, spatial justice, public space

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7593 An Introduction to the Radiation-Thrust Based on Alpha Decay and Spontaneous Fission

Authors: Shiyi He, Yan Xia, Xiaoping Ouyang, Liang Chen, Zhongbing Zhang, Jinlu Ruan

Abstract:

As the key system of the spacecraft, various propelling system have been developing rapidly, including ion thrust, laser thrust, solar sail and other micro-thrusters. However, there still are some shortages in these systems. The ion thruster requires the high-voltage or magnetic field to accelerate, resulting in extra system, heavy quantity and large volume. The laser thrust now is mostly ground-based and providing pulse thrust, restraint by the station distribution and the capacity of laser. The thrust direction of solar sail is limited to its relative position with the Sun, so it is hard to propel toward the Sun or adjust in the shadow.In this paper, a novel nuclear thruster based on alpha decay and spontaneous fission is proposed and the principle of this radiation-thrust with alpha particle has been expounded. Radioactive materials with different released energy, such as 210Po with 5.4MeV and 238Pu with 5.29MeV, attached to a metal film will provides various thrust among 0.02-5uN/cm2. With this repulsive force, radiation is able to be a power source. With the advantages of low system quantity, high accuracy and long active time, the radiation thrust is promising in the field of space debris removal, orbit control of nano-satellite array and deep space exploration. To do further study, a formula lead to the amplitude and direction of thrust by the released energy and decay coefficient is set up. With the initial formula, the alpha radiation elements with the half life period longer than a hundred days are calculated and listed. As the alpha particles emit continuously, the residual charge in metal film grows and affects the emitting energy distribution of alpha particles. With the residual charge or extra electromagnetic field, the emitting of alpha particles performs differently and is analyzed in this paper. Furthermore, three more complex situations are discussed. Radiation element generating alpha particles with several energies in different intensity, mixture of various radiation elements, and cascaded alpha decay are studied respectively. In combined way, it is more efficient and flexible to adjust the thrust amplitude. The propelling model of the spontaneous fission is similar with the one of alpha decay, which has a more complex angular distribution. A new quasi-sphere space propelling system based on the radiation-thrust has been introduced, as well as the collecting and processing system of excess charge and reaction heat. The energy and spatial angular distribution of emitting alpha particles on unit area and certain propelling system have been studied. As the alpha particles are easily losing energy and self-absorb, the distribution is not the simple stacking of each nuclide. With the change of the amplitude and angel of radiation-thrust, orbital variation strategy on space debris removal is shown and optimized.

Keywords: alpha decay, angular distribution, emitting energy, orbital variation, radiation-thruster

Procedia PDF Downloads 186
7592 BEATRICE: A Low-Cost Manipulator Arm for an Educational Planetary Rover

Authors: T. Pakulski, L. Kryza, A. Linossier

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The BEar Articulated TeleRobotic Inspection and Clasping Extremity is a lightweight, 5 DoF robotic manipulator for the Berlin Educational Assistant Rover (BEAR). BEAR is one of the educational planetary rovers developed under the Space Rover projects at the Chair of Space Technology of the Technische Universität Berlin. The projects serve to conduct research and train engineers by developing rovers for competitions like the European Rover Challenge and the DLR SpaceBot Cup. BEATRICE is the result of a cost-driven design process to deliver a simple but capable platform for a variety of competition tasks: object grasping and manipulation, inspection, instrument wielding and more. The manipulator’s simple mechatronic design, based on a combination of servomotors and stepper motors with planetary gearboxes, also makes it a practical tool for developing embedded control systems. The platform’s initial implementation relies on tele-operated control but is fully instrumented for future autonomous functionality. This paper describes BEATRICE’s development from its preliminary link model to its structural and mechatronic design, embedded control and AI and T. In parallel, it examines the influence of budget constraints and high personnel turnover commonly associated with student teams on the manipulator’s design. Finally, it comments on the utility of robot design projects for educating future engineers.

Keywords: education, low-cost, manipulator, robotics, rover

Procedia PDF Downloads 240
7591 Uncovering Geometrical Ideas in Weaving: An Ethnomathematical Approaches to School Pedagogy

Authors: Jaya Bishnu Pradhan

Abstract:

Weaving mat is one of the common activities performed in different community generally in the rural part of Nepal. Mat weavers’ practice mathematical ideas and concepts implicitly in order to perform their job. This study is intended to uncover the mathematical ideas embedded in mat weaving that can help teachers and students for the teaching and learning of school geometry. The ethnographic methodology was used to uncover and describe the beliefs, values, understanding, perceptions, and attitudes of the mat weavers towards mathematical ideas and concepts in the process of mat weaving. A total of 4 mat weavers, two mathematics teachers and 12 students from grade level 6-8, who are used to participate in weaving, were selected for the study. The whole process of the mat weaving was observed in a natural setting. The classroom observation and in-depth interview were taken with the participants with the help of interview guidelines and observation checklist. The data obtained from the field were categorized according to the themes regarding mathematical ideas embedded in the weaving activities, and its possibilities in teaching learning of school geometry. In this study, the mathematical activities in different sectors of their lives, their ways of understanding the natural phenomena, and their ethnomathematical knowledge were analyzed with the notions of pluralism. From the field data, it was found that the mat weaver exhibited sophisticated geometrical ideas in the process of construction of frame of mat. They used x-test method for confirming if the mat is rectangular. Mat also provides a good opportunity to understand the space geometry. A rectangular form of mat may be rolled up when it is not in use and can be converted to a cylindrical form, which usually can be used as larder so as to reserve food grains. From the observation of the situations, this cultural experience enables students to calculate volume, curved surface area and total surface area of the cylinder. The possibilities of incorporation of these cultural activities and its pedagogical use were observed in mathematics classroom. It is argued that it is possible to use mat weaving activities in the teaching and learning of school geometry.

Keywords: ethnography, ethnomathematics, geometry, mat weaving, school pedagogy

Procedia PDF Downloads 139
7590 The Common Location and the Intensity of Surface Electrical Stimulation on the Thorax and Abdomen Areas: A Systematic Review

Authors: Vu Hoang Thu Huong

Abstract:

Background: Surface electrical stimulation (SES) is a popular non-invasive approach that offers a wide range of treatments for many diseases of physical therapy. It involves applying electrical stimulation to the skin via surface electrodes to stimulate nerve fibers. SES was regularly used to treat the back and upper or lower extremities, but it was rarely used to treat the chest and abdomen. SES on the thorax and abdomen should be administered with more attention because crucial organs are under those areas (i.e., heart, lungs, liver, etc.). In these areas, safety precautions are suggested, and some SES applications might even be a contraindication. The fact that physical therapists have less experience with SES in these situations can also be attributed to these. Although a few earlier studies applied it to these settings and discovered hopeful results, none of them highlight the relationship between the intensity of SES and its depth of impact for safety considerations. Objective: To assure feasibility when using SES in these areas, the purpose of this study is to summarize the common location and intensity of those areas that have been conducted in previous studies. Method: A thorough systematic review was conducted to determine the common surface electrode position for the thorax and abdomen areas. The studies with the randomized controlled design were systematically searched using inclusion and exclusion criteria through nine electronic databases, including Pubmed, Scopus, etc., between 1975 and Dec 2021. Results: Thirty-three studies with over 1800 participants and 4 types of SES (TENS, IFC, NMES, and FES) with various categories of department hospitals were found. Following an anterior, lateral, and posterior observation, the particular SES positions found that it concentrated on 6 regions (the thoracic, abdomen, upper lateral, lower lateral, upper back, and lower back regions), and its intensity for each region was also summarized. Conclusion: This systematic review figured out the popular locations of SES in the thorax and abdominal areas as well as a summarized maximum of intensity that was found in previous studies with outstanding outcomes.

Keywords: surface electrical stimulation, electrical stimulation, thoracic, abdomen, abdominal.

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7589 Digital Antimicrobial Thermometer for Axilliary Usage: A New Device for Measuring the Temperature of the Body for the Reduction of Cross-Infections

Authors: P. Efstathiou, E. Kouskouni, Z. Manolidou, K. Karageorgou, M. Tseroni, A. Efstathiou, V. Karyoti, I. Agrafa

Abstract:

Aim: The aim of this prospective comparative study is to evaluate the reduction of microbial flora on the surface of an axillary digital thermometer, made of antimicrobial copper, in relation with a common digital thermometer. Material – Methods: A brand new digital electronic thermometer implemented with antimicrobial copper (Cu 70% - Nic 30%, low lead) on the two edges of the device (top and bottom: World Patent Number WO2013064847 and Register Number by the Hellenic Copper Development Institute No 11/2012) was manufactured and a comparative study with common digital electronic thermometer was conducted on 18 ICU (Intensive Care Unit) patients of three different hospitals. The thermometry was performed in accordance with the projected International Nursing Protocols for body temperature measurement. A total of 216 microbiological samples were taken from the axillary area of the patients, using both of the investigated body temperature devises. Simultaneously the “Halo” phenomenon (phenomenon “Stefanis”) was studied at the non-antimicrobial copper-implemented parts of the antimicrobial digital electronic thermometer. Results: In all samples collected from the surface of the antimicrobial electronic digital thermometer, the reduction of microbial flora (Klebsiella spp, Staphylococcus aureus, Staphylococcus epidermitis, Candida spp, Pneudomonas spp) was progressively reduced to 99% in two hours after the thermometry. The above flora was found in the axillary cavity remained the same in common thermometer. The statistical analysis (SPSS 21) showed a statistically significant reduction of the microbial load (N = 216, < 0.05). Conclusions: The hospital-acquired infections are linked to the transfer of pathogens due to the multi-usage of medical devices from both health professionals and patients, such as axillary thermometers. The use of antimicrobial digital electronic thermometer minimizes microbes' transportation between patients and health professionals while having all the conditions of reliability, proper functioning, security, ease of use and reduced cost.

Keywords: antimicrobial copper, cross infections, digital thermometers, ICU

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7588 Control Performance Simulation and Analysis for Microgravity Vibration Isolation System Onboard Chinese Space Station

Authors: Wei Liu, Shuquan Wang, Yang Gao

Abstract:

Microgravity Science Experiment Rack (MSER) will be onboard TianHe (TH) spacecraft planned to be launched in 2018. TH is one module of Chinese Space Station. Microgravity Vibration Isolation System (MVIS), which is MSER’s core part, is used to isolate disturbance from TH and provide high-level microgravity for science experiment payload. MVIS is two stage vibration isolation system, consisting of Follow Unit (FU) and Experiment Support Unit (ESU). FU is linked to MSER by umbilical cables, and ESU suspends within FU and without physical connection. The FU’s position and attitude relative to TH is measured by binocular vision measuring system, and the acceleration and angular velocity is measured by accelerometers and gyroscopes. Air-jet thrusters are used to generate force and moment to control FU’s motion. Measurement module on ESU contains a set of Position-Sense-Detectors (PSD) sensing the ESU’s position and attitude relative to FU, accelerometers and gyroscopes sensing ESU’s acceleration and angular velocity. Electro-magnetic actuators are used to control ESU’s motion. Firstly, the linearized equations of FU’s motion relative to TH and ESU’s motion relative to FU are derived, laying the foundation for control system design and simulation analysis. Subsequently, two control schemes are proposed. One control scheme is that ESU tracks FU and FU tracks TH, shorten as E-F-T. The other one is that FU tracks ESU and ESU tracks TH, shorten as F-E-T. In addition, motion spaces are constrained within ±15 mm、±2° between FU and ESU, and within ±300 mm between FU and TH or between ESU and TH. A Proportional-Integrate-Differentiate (PID) controller is designed to control FU’s position and attitude. ESU’s controller includes an acceleration feedback loop and a relative position feedback loop. A Proportional-Integrate (PI) controller is designed in the acceleration feedback loop to reduce the ESU’s acceleration level, and a PID controller in the relative position feedback loop is used to avoid collision. Finally, simulations of E-F-T and F-E-T are performed considering variety uncertainties, disturbances and motion space constrains. The simulation results of E-T-H showed that control performance was from 0 to -20 dB for vibration frequency from 0.01 to 0.1 Hz, and vibration was attenuated 40 dB per ten octave above 0.1Hz. The simulation results of T-E-H showed that vibration was attenuated 20 dB per ten octave at the beginning of 0.01Hz.

Keywords: microgravity science experiment rack, microgravity vibration isolation system, PID control, vibration isolation performance

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7587 Bayesian Inference for High Dimensional Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Models

Authors: Sofia M. Karadimitriou, Kostas Triantafyllopoulos, Timothy Heaton

Abstract:

Reduced dimension Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Models (DSTMs) jointly describe the spatial and temporal evolution of a function observed subject to noise. A basic state space model is adopted for the discrete temporal variation, while a continuous autoregressive structure describes the continuous spatial evolution. Application of such a DSTM relies upon the pre-selection of a suitable reduced set of basic functions and this can present a challenge in practice. In this talk, we propose an online estimation method for high dimensional spatio-temporal data based upon DSTM and we attempt to resolve this issue by allowing the basis to adapt to the observed data. Specifically, we present a wavelet decomposition in order to obtain a parsimonious approximation of the spatial continuous process. This parsimony can be achieved by placing a Laplace prior distribution on the wavelet coefficients. The aim of using the Laplace prior, is to filter wavelet coefficients with low contribution, and thus achieve the dimension reduction with significant computation savings. We then propose a Hierarchical Bayesian State Space model, for the estimation of which we offer an appropriate particle filter algorithm. The proposed methodology is illustrated using real environmental data.

Keywords: multidimensional Laplace prior, particle filtering, spatio-temporal modelling, wavelets

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7586 Generating Individualized Wildfire Risk Assessments Utilizing Multispectral Imagery and Geospatial Artificial Intelligence

Authors: Gus Calderon, Richard McCreight, Tammy Schwartz

Abstract:

Forensic analysis of community wildfire destruction in California has shown that reducing or removing flammable vegetation in proximity to buildings and structures is one of the most important wildfire defenses available to homeowners. State laws specify the requirements for homeowners to create and maintain defensible space around all structures. Unfortunately, this decades-long effort had limited success due to noncompliance and minimal enforcement. As a result, vulnerable communities continue to experience escalating human and economic costs along the wildland-urban interface (WUI). Quantifying vegetative fuels at both the community and parcel scale requires detailed imaging from an aircraft with remote sensing technology to reduce uncertainty. FireWatch has been delivering high spatial resolution (5” ground sample distance) wildfire hazard maps annually to the community of Rancho Santa Fe, CA, since 2019. FireWatch uses a multispectral imaging system mounted onboard an aircraft to create georeferenced orthomosaics and spectral vegetation index maps. Using proprietary algorithms, the vegetation type, condition, and proximity to structures are determined for 1,851 properties in the community. Secondary data processing combines object-based classification of vegetative fuels, assisted by machine learning, to prioritize mitigation strategies within the community. The remote sensing data for the 10 sq. mi. community is divided into parcels and sent to all homeowners in the form of defensible space maps and reports. Follow-up aerial surveys are performed annually using repeat station imaging of fixed GPS locations to address changes in defensible space, vegetation fuel cover, and condition over time. These maps and reports have increased wildfire awareness and mitigation efforts from 40% to over 85% among homeowners in Rancho Santa Fe. To assist homeowners fighting increasing insurance premiums and non-renewals, FireWatch has partnered with Black Swan Analytics, LLC, to leverage the multispectral imagery and increase homeowners’ understanding of wildfire risk drivers. For this study, a subsample of 100 parcels was selected to gain a comprehensive understanding of wildfire risk and the elements which can be mitigated. Geospatial data from FireWatch’s defensible space maps was combined with Black Swan’s patented approach using 39 other risk characteristics into a 4score Report. The 4score Report helps property owners understand risk sources and potential mitigation opportunities by assessing four categories of risk: Fuel sources, ignition sources, susceptibility to loss, and hazards to fire protection efforts (FISH). This study has shown that susceptibility to loss is the category residents and property owners must focus their efforts. The 4score Report also provides a tool to measure the impact of homeowner actions on risk levels over time. Resiliency is the only solution to breaking the cycle of community wildfire destruction and it starts with high-quality data and education.

Keywords: defensible space, geospatial data, multispectral imaging, Rancho Santa Fe, susceptibility to loss, wildfire risk.

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7585 In Life: Space as Doppelganger in “The House of Usher”

Authors: Tuğçe Arslan

Abstract:

In the dark and gloomy times of the Middle Ages, high, majestic, and frightening structures were revealed in the architectural field. Thus, gothic architecture began to find a place for itself in different areas and spread its influence. Gothic has found its place in almost every literary genre and manages to show itself as the dominant genre in the works it enters. It has exploited many concepts, such as a chest full of bad feelings, and creates a gloomy, scary, frightening, and pessimistic mood in the story with these concepts. One of the essential concepts it uses while creating these feelings is the concept of “Doppelganger.” With this concept, the authors make sense of the uncanny; at this point, they allow the spaces to act like characters, just like the uncanny feeling Edgar Allan Poe creates in his story “The Fall of the House of the Usher.” In this story by Edgar Allan Poe, attention should be paid to the symbolic link between the two, as “House of Usher” refers to the family and the building. And indeed, it is possible to see this minor rift as representative of a breakdown in family unity, specifically between Madeline and Roderick. Because although the home is not alive, it has some supernatural features that make it look like a living, breathing being. Therefore, the remainder of this paper will argue that apart from the apparent twins, the house should also qualify as a Doppelganger in the story. This study will first explore the physical and mental disorders of the twins and their journey to complement each other; next, in an attempt to demonstrate how the house as a non-living needs to be considered as a Doppelganger of the twins, a close reading on the house depictions will be scrutinized.

Keywords: Edgar Allan Poe, doppelganger, uncanny, gothic, space, home

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7584 Effect of Experience on Evacuation of Mice in Emergency Conditions

Authors: Teng Zhang, Shenshi Huang, Gang Xu, Xuelin Zhang, Shouxiang Lu

Abstract:

With the acceleration of urbanization and the increasing of the population in the city, the evacuation of pedestrians suffering from disaster environments such as fire in a room or other limited space becomes a vital issue in modern society. Mice have been used in experimental crowd evacuation in recent years for its good similarities to human in physical structure and stress reaction. In this study, the effect of experience or memory on the collective behavior of mice was explored. To help mice familiarize themselves with the design of the space and the stimulus caused by smoke, we trained them repeatedly for 2 days so that they can escape from the emergency conditions as soon as possible. The escape pattern, trajectories, walking speed, turning angle and mean individual escape time of mice in each training trail were analyzed. We found that mice can build memory quickly after the first trial on the first day. On the second day, the evacuation of mice was maintained in a stable and efficient state. Meanwhile, the group with size of 30 (G30) had a shorter mean individual escape time compared with G12. Furthermore, we tested the experience of evacuation skill of mice after several days. The results showed that the mice can hold the experience or memory over 3 weeks. We proposed the importance of experience of evacuation skill and the research of training methods in experimental evacuation of mice. The results can deepen our understanding of collective behavior of mice and conduce to the establishment of animal models in the study of pedestrian crowd dynamics in emergency conditions.

Keywords: experience, evacuation, mice, group size, behavior

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7583 Cartography through Picasso’s Eyes

Authors: Desiree Di Marco

Abstract:

The aim of this work is to show through the lens of art first which kind of reality was the one represented through fascist maps, and second to study the impact of the fascist regime’s cartography (FRC) on observers eye’s. In this study, it is assumed that the FRC’s representation of reality was simplified, timeless, and even a-spatial because it underrates the concept of territoriality. Cubism and Picasso’s paintings will be used as counter-examples to mystify fascist cartography’s ideological assumptions. The difference between the gaze of an observer looking at the surface of a fascist map and the gaze of someone observing a Picasso painting is impressive. Because there is always something dark, hidden, behind and inside a map, the world of fascist maps was a world built starting from the observation of a “window” that distorted reality and trapped the eyes of the observers. Moving across the map, they seem as if they were hypnotized. Cartohypnosis is the state in which the observer finds himself enslaved by the attractive force of the map, which uses a sort of “magic” geography, a geography that, by means of symbolic language, never has as its primary objective the attempt to show us reality in its complexity, but that of performing for its audience. Magical geography and hypnotic cartography in fascism blended together, creating an almost mystical, magical relationship that demystified reality to reduce the world to a conquerable space. This reduction offered the observer the possibility of conceiving new dimensions: of the limit, of the boundary, elements with which the subject felt fully involved and in which the aesthetic force of the images demonstrated all its strength. But in the early 20th century, the combination of art and cartography gave rise to new possibilities. Cubism which, more than all the other artistic currents showed us how much the observation of reality from a single point of view falls within dangerous logic, is an example. Cubism was an artistic movement that brought about a profound transformation in pictorial culture. It was not only a revolution of pictorial space, but it was a revolution of our conception of pictorial space. Up until that time, men and women were more inclined to believe in the power of images and their representations. Cubist painters rebelled against this blindness by claiming that art must always offer an alternative. Indeed the contribution of this work is precisely to show how art can be able to provide alternatives to even the most horrible regimes and the most atrocious human misfortunes. It also enriches the field of cartography because it "reassures" it by showing how much good it can be for cartography if also for other disciplines come close. Only in this way researcher can increase the chances for the cartography of a greater diffusion at the academic level.

Keywords: cartography, Picasso, fascism, culture

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7582 The Perspective on Data Collection Instruments for Younger Learners

Authors: Hatice Kübra Koç

Abstract:

For academia, collecting reliable and valid data is one of the most significant issues for researchers. However, it is not the same procedure for all different target groups; meanwhile, during data collection from teenagers, young adults, or adults, researchers can use common data collection tools such as questionnaires, interviews, and semi-structured interviews; yet, for young learners and very young ones, these reliable and valid data collection tools cannot be easily designed or applied by the researchers. In this study, firstly, common data collection tools are examined for ‘very young’ and ‘young learners’ participant groups since it is thought that the quality and efficiency of an academic study is mainly based on its valid and correct data collection and data analysis procedure. Secondly, two different data collection instruments for very young and young learners are stated as discussing the efficacy of them. Finally, a suggested data collection tool – a performance-based questionnaire- which is specifically developed for ‘very young’ and ‘young learners’ participant groups in the field of teaching English to young learners as a foreign language is presented in this current study. The designing procedure and suggested items/factors for the suggested data collection tool are accordingly revealed at the end of the study to help researchers have studied with young and very learners.

Keywords: data collection instruments, performance-based questionnaire, young learners, very young learners

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7581 An Analysis of the Representation of the Translator and Translation Process into Brazilian Social Networking Groups

Authors: Érica Lima

Abstract:

In the digital era, in which we have an avalanche of information, it is not new that the Internet has brought new modes of communication and knowledge access. Characterized by the multiplicity of discourses, opinions, beliefs and cultures, the web is a space of political-ideological dimensions where people (who often do not know each other) interact and create representations, deconstruct stereotypes, and redefine identities. Currently, the translator needs to be able to deal with digital spaces ranging from specific software to social media, which inevitably impact on his professional life. One of the most impactful ways of being seen in cyberspace is the participation in social networking groups. In addition to its ability to disseminate information among participants, social networking groups allow a significant personal and social exposure. Such exposure is due to the visibility of each participant achieved not only on its personal profile page, but also in each comment or post the person makes in the groups. The objective of this paper is to study the representations of translators and translation process on the Internet, more specifically in publications in two Brazilian groups of great influence on the Facebook: "Translators/Interpreters" and "Translators, Interpreters and Curious". These chosen groups represent the changes the network has brought to the profession, including the way translators are seen and see themselves. The analyzed posts allowed a reading of what common sense seems to think about the translator as opposed to what the translators seem to think about themselves as a professional class. The results of the analysis lead to the conclusion that these two positions are antagonistic and sometimes represent conflict of interests: on the one hand, the society in general consider the translator’s work something easy, therefore it is not necessary to be well remunerated; on the other hand, the translators who know how complex a translation process is and how much it takes to be a good professional. The results also reveal that social networking sites such as Facebook provide more visibility, but it takes a more active role from the translator to achieve a greater appreciation of the profession and more recognition of the role of the translator, especially in face of increasingly development of automatic translation programs.

Keywords: Facebook, social representation, translation, translator

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7580 Winter – Not Spring - Climate Drives Annual Adult Survival in Common Passerines: A Country-Wide, Multi-Species Modeling Exercise

Authors: Manon Ghislain, Timothée Bonnet, Olivier Gimenez, Olivier Dehorter, Pierre-Yves Henry

Abstract:

Climatic fluctuations affect the demography of animal populations, generating changes in population size, phenology, distribution and community assemblages. However, very few studies have identified the underlying demographic processes. For short-lived species, like common passerine birds, are these changes generated by changes in adult survival or in fecundity and recruitment? This study tests for an effect of annual climatic conditions (spring and winter) on annual, local adult survival at very large spatial (a country, 252 sites), temporal (25 years) and biological (25 species) scales. The Constant Effort Site ringing has allowed the collection of capture - mark - recapture data for 100 000 adult individuals since 1989, over metropolitan France, thus documenting annual, local survival rates of the most common passerine birds. We specifically developed a set of multi-year, multi-species, multi-site Bayesian models describing variations in local survival and recapture probabilities. This method allows for a statistically powerful hierarchical assessment (global versus species-specific) of the effects of climate variables on survival. A major part of between-year variations in survival rate was common to all species (74% of between-year variance), whereas only 26% of temporal variation was species-specific. Although changing spring climate is commonly invoked as a cause of population size fluctuations, spring climatic anomalies (mean precipitation or temperature for March-August) do not impact adult survival: only 1% of between-year variation of species survival is explained by spring climatic anomalies. However, for sedentary birds, winter climatic anomalies (North Atlantic Oscillation) had a significant, quadratic effect on adult survival, birds surviving less during intermediate years than during more extreme years. For migratory birds, we do not detect an effect of winter climatic anomalies (Sahel Rainfall). We will analyze the life history traits (migration, habitat, thermal range) that could explain a different sensitivity of species to winter climate anomalies. Overall, we conclude that changes in population sizes for passerine birds are unlikely to be the consequences of climate-driven mortality (or emigration) in spring but could be induced by other demographic parameters, like fecundity.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, capture-recapture, climate anomaly, constant effort sites scheme, passerine, seasons, survival

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