Search results for: stock movement prediction

Authors: Tianqi Yin

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The sharia had been the legislative basis in the Ottoman Empire since its emergence. The authority of sharia was superlative in the Islamic society compared to the power of the sulta, the nominal ruler of the nation, regulating essentially every aspect of people’s lives according to an ethical code. In modernity, however, as European sovereignty employed forces to re-engineer the Islamic world to make it more like their own, a society ruled by a state, the Ottoman legislation system encountered a great challenge of adopting codified laws to replace sharia with the formulation of the Mecelle being a prominent case. Interpretations of this transformation have been contentious, with the key debate revolving around whether these codified laws are authentic representations of sharia or alien legal formulations authorized by the modern nation-state under heavy European colonial influence. Because of the difference in methodology of the diverse theories, challenges toward having a universal conclusion on this issue remain. This paper argues that the formulation of the Mecelle and other codified laws is a discontinuity of sharia due to European modernity’s influence and that the emphasis on elements of Islamic laws is a tactic employed to promote this process. These codified laws signals a complete social transformation from the Islamic society ruled by the sharia to a replication of the European society that is ruled by a comprehensive ruling system of the modern state. In addition to advancing the discussion on the characterization of the codification movement in the Ottoman Empire in modernity, the research also promotes the determination of the nature of the modern codification movement globally.

Keywords: codification, mecelle, modernity, sharia, ottoman empire

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Authors: Maria Luisa Nozawa Ribeiro, Maria Teresa Miceli Kerbauy

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This paper aims to present the theories of public participation in order to understand the context of the public GMO (Genetic Modified Organisms) policies in Brazil, highlighting the characteristics of its configuration and the dialog with the experts. As a controversy subject, the commercialization of GMO provoked manifestation of some popular and environmental representative groups questioning the decisions of policy makers and experts on the matter. Many aspects and consequences of the plantation and consumption of this crops emerged and the safety of this technology was questioned. Environmentalists, Civil Right's movement, representatives of rural workers, farmers and organics producers, etc. demonstrated their point of view, also sustained by some experts of medical, genetical, environmental, agronomical sciences, etc. fields. Despite this movement, the precautionary principle (risk management), implemented in 1987, suggested precaution facing new technologies and innovations in the sustainable development society. This principle influenced many legislation and regulation on GMO around the world, including Brazil, which became a reference among the world regulatory GMO systems. The Brazilian legislation ensures the citizens participation on GMO discussion, characteristic that was important to establish the connection between the subject and the participation theory. These deliberation spaces materialized in Brazil through the "Public Audiences", which are managed by the National Biosafety Technical Commission (CTNBio), the department responsible for controlling the research, production and commercialization of GMOs in Brazil.

Keywords: public engagement, public participation, science and technology studies, transgenic politics

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Authors: Iliya Ibrahim Gimba

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The period between the late 18th and early 19th centuries was characterized by conflict of ethnic nationalities in the Benue valley region. This conflict was exacerbated by the introduction of the Fulani jihad that began in Hausa land into the Benue valley region. Fulani in this region launched the Jihad movement which pushed out some ethnic groups from their natural abode or ancestral home to live a nomad live until they could settle and established a stayed in a particular place. The Chamba were being displaced by the Fulani jihad that took place around Faro deo in about 1809. It was from there that most of the Chamba migrated out, some into the Cameroon republic, while others moved into the Benue valley region. Among those that entered into the Benue valley region are the Sama, Kola, Gayam etc, and could be found in Donga local Government area of Taraba state. Those Chamba clan that later on cameo into the Benue Valley are Pyeri, Kashimbila etc. The sudden movement of the Chamba or migrations into the Jukun territory co-in ceded with the period that the Jihad had already had a severe and consequential effect or impact on the Jukun territory cause by Yakubu Ibrahim of Bzuchi, and Buba Yero of Gombe, and Hamaruwa of Muri Emirate. This ne authorities in Kwararafa Kingdom cut the Jukun King out of contact with Borno and Hausa-land. This paper set to examine the chiefdom that the Chamba established right within the Jukun headquarters of Wukari. Sources to be used are published books, Journals, Archival materials, and M.A. Thesis to enable us know the impact of Chamba migrations on the Jukun territory and reactions of the Jukun’s to this new comers.

Keywords: Chamba people, encroachment, migration, ethnic nationalities

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Authors: Khalid Kaddoura, Ahmed Assad, Tarek Zayed

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Sewer pipelines are prone to deterioration over-time. In fact, their deterioration does not follow a fixed downward pattern. This is in fact due to the defects that propagate through their service life. Sewer pipeline defects are categorized into distinct groups. However, the main two groups are the structural and operational defects. By definition, the structural defects influence the structural integrity of the sewer pipelines such as deformation, cracks, fractures, holes, etc. However, the operational defects are the ones that affect the flow of the sewer medium in the pipelines such as: roots, debris, attached deposits, infiltration, etc. Yet, the process for each defect to emerge follows a cause and effect relationship. Deformation, which is the change of the sewer pipeline geometry, is one type of an influencing defect that could be found in many sewer pipelines due to many surrounding factors. This defect could lead to collapse if the percentage exceeds 15%. Therefore, it is essential to predict the deformation percentage before confronting such a situation. Accordingly, this study will predict the percentage of the deformation defect in sewer pipelines adopting the multiple regression analysis. Several factors will be considered in establishing the model, which are expected to influence the defamation defect severity. Besides, this study will construct a time-based curve to understand how the defect would evolve overtime. Thus, this study is expected to be an asset for decision-makers as it will provide informative conclusions about the deformation defect severity. As a result, inspections will be minimized and so the budgets.

Keywords: deformation, prediction, regression analysis, sewer pipelines

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Authors: Minghao Liu

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This paper uses the theory of communication in the context of mass communication, from the construction of communication symbols, communication flow organization, communication experience perception of the three levels of the old industrial factory landscape transformation research and analysis, summarizes the old industrial factory landscape in the communication process to create strategies and design methods for the old industrial factories carried by the urban culture of how to enter the public's life more widely in the existing environment and be familiar with the significance of the exploration, to provide a new idea for the renewal of the urban stock, and ultimately to achieve the sustainable development of the city.

Keywords: communication, old industrial factor, urban renewal, landscape design

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Authors: Aminah Muchdar, Nuraeni, Eddy

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The aims of the research are: (1) to verify the cropsyst plant model of experimental data in the field of soybean plants and (2) to predict planting time and potential yield soybean plant with the use of cropsyst model. This research is divided into several stages: (1) first calibration stage which conducted in the field from June until September 2015.(2) application models stage, where the data obtained from calibration in the field will be included in cropsyst models. The required data models are climate data, ground data/soil data,also crop genetic data. The relationship between the obtained result in field with simulation cropsyst model indicated by Efficiency Index (EF) which the value is 0,939.That is showing that cropsyst model is well used. From the calculation result RRMSE which the value is 1,922%.That is showing that comparative fault prediction results from simulation with result obtained in the field is 1,92%. The conclusion has obtained that the prediction of soybean planting time cropsyst based models that have been made valid for use. and the appropriate planting time for planting soybeans mainly on rain-fed land is at the end of the rainy season, in which the above study first planting time (June 2, 2015) which gives the highest production, because at that time there was still some rain. Tanggamus varieties more resistant to slow planting time cause the percentage decrease in the yield of each decade is lower than the average of all varieties.

Keywords: soybean, Cropsyst, calibration, efficiency Index, RRMSE

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Authors: Vinod Kumar, Surjit Angra

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The objective of this theoretical study is to develop simple design formulas for the prediction of minimum film thickness and maximum mean film temperature rise in lightly loaded high-speed rolling/sliding lubricated elliptical contacts incorporating starvation effect. Herein, the reported numerical analysis focuses on thermoelastohydrodynamically lubricated rolling/sliding elliptical contacts, considering the Newtonian rheology of lubricant for wide range of operating parameters, namely load characterized by Hertzian pressure (PH = 0.01 GPa to 0.10 GPa), rolling speed (>10 m/s), slip parameter (S varies up to 1.0), and ellipticity ratio (k = 1 to 5). Starvation is simulated by systematically reducing the inlet supply. This analysis reveals that influences of load, rolling speed, and level of starvation are significant on the minimum film thickness. However, the maximum mean film temperature rise is strongly influenced by slip in addition to load, rolling speed, and level of starvation. In the presence of starvation, reduction in minimum film thickness and increase in maximum mean film temperature are observed. Based on the results of this study, empirical relations are developed for the prediction of dimensionless minimum film thickness and dimensionless maximum mean film temperature rise at the contacts in terms of various operating parameters.

Keywords: starvation, lubrication, elliptical contact, traction, minimum film thickness

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Authors: Anita De Melo

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Today we live in a crucial time of ecological crisis, of environmental catastrophes worldwide, and this scenario is, arrogantly, overlooked by powerful economic forces and their politics. Thus, a critical pedagogy that leads to action and that fosters ecoliteracy, environment education, is now inevitable, and it must become an integral part of the school curriculum across the disciplines, including the social sciences and the humanities. One of the most important contemporary and emerging movement of today is ecopedagogy, a movement that blends theory and ethics towards a curriculum that focus on an environmental education that will promote ecological justice, respect, and care by educating students to become planetary citizens. This paper aims, first, to emphasize the need for discussions and investigations regarding ecoliteracy within our field of teaching foreign languages, which will consider, among others, the of role language in stimulating sustainability, and the role of second language proficiency in fostering positive transnational dialogues conducive to fighting our current planetary crisis. Second, this paper suggests and discusses some critical ecopedagogical practices -- in the form of project-based learning, service-learning and environmental-oriented study abroad programs – apropos to ecoliteracy. These interdisciplinary projects can and should bring students in contact with communities speaking the target language, and such encounter would facilitate cultural exchanges and promote positive language proficiency whilst it would also give students the opportunity to work with finding ideas/projects to fight our current ecological catastrophe.

Keywords: critical pedagogy, ecoliteracy, ecopedagogy, planetary crisis

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Authors: Zeynep Küçükakça, Nezaket Parlak, Mesut Gür, Tahsin Engin, Hasan Küçük

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In the current research, the single phase fluid flow and heat transfer characteristics are experimentally investigated. The experiments are conducted to cover transition zone for the Reynolds numbers ranging from 100 to 4800 by fused silica and stainless steel microtubes having diameters of 103-180 µm. The applicability of the Logarithmic Mean Temperature Difference (LMTD) method is revealed and an experimental method is developed to calculate the heat transfer coefficient. Heat transfer is supplied by a water jacket surrounding the microtubes and heat transfer coefficients are obtained by LMTD method. The results are compared with data obtained by the correlations available in the literature in the study. The experimental results indicate that the Nusselt numbers of microtube flows do not accord with the conventional results when the Reynolds number is lower than 1000. After that, the Nusselt number approaches the conventional theory prediction. Moreover, the scaling effects in micro scale such as axial conduction, viscous heating and entrance effects are discussed. On the aspect of fluid characteristics, the friction factor is well predicted with conventional theory and the conventional friction prediction is valid for water flow through microtube with a relative surface roughness less than about 4 %.

Keywords: microtube, laminar flow, friction factor, heat transfer, LMTD method

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Authors: Reza Dinarvand, Mahdi Sadeghian, Somaye Sadeghian

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Prediction of the ultimate bearing capacity of piles (Qu) is one of the basic issues in geotechnical engineering. So far, several methods have been used to estimate Qu, including the recently developed artificial intelligence methods. In recent years, optimization algorithms have been used to minimize artificial network errors, such as colony algorithms, genetic algorithms, imperialist competitive algorithms, and so on. In the present research, artificial neural networks based on colonial competition algorithm (ANN-ICA) were used, and their results were compared with other methods. The results of laboratory tests of short piles in clayey soils with parameters such as pile diameter, pile buried length, eccentricity of load and undrained shear resistance of soil were used for modeling and evaluation. The results showed that ICA-based artificial neural networks predicted lateral bearing capacity of short piles with a correlation coefficient of 0.9865 for training data and 0.975 for test data. Furthermore, the results of the model indicated the superiority of ICA-based artificial neural networks compared to back-propagation artificial neural networks as well as the Broms and Hansen methods.

Keywords: artificial neural network, clayey soil, imperialist competition algorithm, lateral bearing capacity, short pile

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Authors: Lucas Viani, Benedetta Mennucci, Soo Young Park, Johannes Gierschner

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Organic semiconductors have attracted the attention of the scientific community in the past decades due to their unique physicochemical properties, allowing new designs and alternative device fabrication methods. Until today, organic electronic devices are largely based on conjugated polymers mainly due to their easy processability. In the recent years, due to moderate ET and CT efficiencies and the ill-defined nature of polymeric systems the focus has been shifting to small conjugated molecules with well-defined chemical structure, easier control of intermolecular packing, and enhanced CT and ET properties. It has led to the synthesis of new small molecules, followed by the growth of their crystalline structure and ultimately by the device preparation. This workflow is commonly followed without a clear knowledge of the ET and CT properties related mainly to the macroscopic systems, which may lead to financial and time losses, since not all materials will deliver the properties and efficiencies demanded by the current standards. In this work, we present a theoretical workflow designed to predict the key properties of ET of these new materials prior synthesis, thus speeding up the discovery of new promising materials. It is based on quantum mechanical, hybrid, and classical methodologies, starting from a single molecule structure, finishing with the prediction of its packing structure, and prediction of properties of interest such as static and averaged excitonic couplings, and exciton diffusion length.

Keywords: organic semiconductor, organic crystals, energy transport, excitonic couplings

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Authors: Ahmed H. Elkholy

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An elastic analysis is developed to obtain the distribution of stresses, strains, bending moment and deformation for a thin hollow, variable thickness cylindrical specimen when subjected to different biaxial loadings. The specimen was subjected to a combination of internal pressure, axial tensile loading and external pressure. Several axial to circumferential stress ratios were investigated in detail. The analytical model was then validated using experimental results obtained from a test rig using several biaxial loadings. Based on the preliminary results obtained, the specimen was then modified geometrically to ensure uniform strain distribution through its wall thickness and along its gauge length. The new design of the specimen has a higher buckling strength and a maximum value of equivalent stress according to the maximum distortion energy theory. A cyclic function generator of the standard servo-controlled, electro-hydraulic testing machine is used to generate a specific signal shape (sine, square,…) at a certain frequency. The two independent controllers of the electronic circuit cause an independent movement to each servo-valve piston. The movement of each piston pressurizes the upper and lower sides of the actuators alternately. So, the specimen will be subjected to axial and diametral loads independent of each other. The hydraulic system has two different pressures: one pressure will be responsible for axial stress produced in the specimen and the other will be responsible for the tangential stress. Changing the two pressure ratios will change the stress ratios accordingly. The only restriction on the maximum stress obtained is the capacity of the testing system and specimen instability due to buckling.

Keywords: biaxial, fatigue, stress, testing

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Authors: Jiin Jeong, Taekwang Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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The target microgrid in this paper is isolated from the large central power system and is assumed to consist of wind generators, photovoltaic power generators, an energy storage system (ESS), a diesel power generator, the community load, and a dump load. The operation of such a microgrid can be hazardous because of the uncertain prediction of power supply and demand and especially due to the high fluctuation of the output from the wind generators. In this paper, we propose an iterative replanning method for determining the appropriate level of diesel generation and the charging/discharging cycles of the ESS for the upcoming one-hour horizon. To cope with the uncertainty of the estimation of supply and demand, the one-hour plan is built repeatedly in the regular interval of one minute by rolling the one-hour horizon. Since the plan should be built with a sufficiently large safe margin to avoid any possible black-out, some energy waste through the dump load is inevitable. In our approach, the level of safe margin is optimized through learning from the past experience. The simulation experiments show that our method combined with the margin optimization can reduce the dump load compared to the method without such optimization.

Keywords: microgrid, operation planning, power efficiency optimization, supply and demand prediction

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Authors: Claire Xu, Welton Wang, Manasvi Pinnaka, Anqi Pan, Michael Han

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Hospitalizations account for one-third of the total health care spending in the US. Early risk detection and intervention can reduce this high cost and increase the satisfaction of both patients and physicians. Due to the lack of awareness of the potential arising risks in home environment, the opportunities for patients to seek early actions of clinical visits are dramatically reduced. This research aims to offer a highly personalized remote patients monitoring and risk assessment AI framework to identify the potentially preventable hospitalization for both acute as well as chronic diseases. A hybrid-AI framework is trained with data from clinical setting, patients surveys, as well as online databases. 20+ risk factors are analyzed ranging from activities, biometric info, demographic info, socio-economic info, hospitalization history, medication info, lifestyle info, etc. The AI model yields high performance of 87% accuracy and 88 sensitivity with 20+ features. This hybrid-AI framework is proven to be effective in identifying the potentially preventable hospitalization. Further, the high indicative features are identified by the models which guide us to a healthy lifestyle and early intervention suggestions.

Keywords: hospitalization prevention, machine learning, remote patient monitoring, risk prediction

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Authors: G. Singer, M. Golan

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Providing students with learning disabilities (LD) with extra time to grant them equal access to the exam is a necessary but insufficient condition to compensate for their LD; there should also be a clear indication that the additional time was actually used. For example, if students with LD use more time than students without LD and yet receive lower grades, this may indicate that a different accommodation is required. If they achieve higher grades but use the same amount of time, then the effectiveness of the accommodation has not been demonstrated. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the effect of including parameters related to LD and extended exam time, along with other commonly-used characteristics (e.g., student background and ability measures such as high-school grades), on the ability of ordinal decision-tree algorithms to predict exam performance. We use naturally-occurring data collected from hundreds of undergraduate engineering students. The sub-goals are i) to examine the improvement in prediction accuracy when the indicator of exam performance includes 'actual time used' in addition to the conventional indicator (exam grade) employed in most research; ii) to explore the effectiveness of extended exam time on exam performance for different courses and for LD students with different profiles (i.e., sets of characteristics). This is achieved by using the patterns (i.e., subgroups) generated by the algorithms to identify pairs of subgroups that differ in just one characteristic (e.g., course or type of LD) but have different outcomes in terms of exam performance (grade and time used). Since grade and time used to exhibit an ordering form, we propose a method based on ordinal decision-trees, which applies a weighted information-gain ratio (WIGR) measure for selecting the classifying attributes. Unlike other known ordinal algorithms, our method does not assume monotonicity in the data. The proposed WIGR is an extension of an information-theoretic measure, in the sense that it adjusts to the case of an ordinal target and takes into account the error severity between two different target classes. Specifically, we use ordinal C4.5, random-forest, and AdaBoost algorithms, as well as an ensemble technique composed of ordinal and non-ordinal classifiers. Firstly, we find that the inclusion of LD and extended exam-time parameters improves prediction of exam performance (compared to specifications of the algorithms that do not include these variables). Secondly, when the indicator of exam performance includes 'actual time used' together with grade (as opposed to grade only), the prediction accuracy improves. Thirdly, our subgroup analyses show clear differences in the effect of extended exam time on exam performance among different courses and different student profiles. From a methodological perspective, we find that the ordinal decision-tree based algorithms outperform their conventional, non-ordinal counterparts. Further, we demonstrate that the ensemble-based approach leverages the strengths of each type of classifier (ordinal and non-ordinal) and yields better performance than each classifier individually.

Keywords: actual exam time usage, ensemble learning, learning disabilities, ordinal classification, time extension

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Authors: Merna Ibrahim

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Designing buildings which are sustainable and can control and reduce the solar radiation penetrated from the building facades is such an architectural turn. One of the most important methods of saving energy in a building is carefully designing its facade. Building’s facade is one of the most significant contributors to the energy budget as well as the comfort parameters of a building. Responsive architecture adapts to the surrounding environment causing alteration in the envelope configuration to perform in a more effective way. One of the objectives of the responsive facades is to protect the building’s users from the external environment and to achieve a comfortable indoor environment. Solar radiation is one of the aspects that affects the comfortable indoor environment, as well as affects the energy consumption consumed by the HVAC systems for maintaining the indoor comfortable conditions. The aim of the paper is introducing and comparing between four different proposed responsive facade designs in terms of solar radiation reduction on the west facade of a building located in the hot arid region. In addition, the paper highlights the reducing amount of solar radiation for each proposed responsive facade on the west facade. At the end of the paper, a proposal is introduced which combines the four different axis of movements which reduces the solar radiation the most. Moreover, the paper highlights the definition and aim of the responsive architecture, as well as the focusing on the solar radiation aspect in the hot arid zones. Besides, the paper analyzes an international responsive façade building in Essen, Germany, focusing on the type of responsive facades, angle of rotation, mechanism of movement and the effect of the responsive facades on the building’s performance.

Keywords: kinetic facades, mechanism of movement, responsive architecture, solar radiation

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Authors: Shenlun Chen, Leonard Wee

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Tumor grading is an essential reference for colorectal cancer (CRC) staging and survival prognostication. The widely used World Health Organization (WHO) grading system defines histological grade of CRC adenocarcinoma based on the density of glandular formation on whole slide images (WSI). Tumors are classified as well-, moderately-, poorly- or un-differentiated depending on the percentage of the tumor that is gland forming; >95%, 50-95%, 5-50% and <5%, respectively. However, manually grading WSIs is a time-consuming process and can cause observer error due to subjective judgment and unnoticed regions. Furthermore, pathologists’ grading is usually coarse while a finer and continuous differentiation grade may help to stratifying CRC patients better. In this study, a deep learning based automatic differentiation grading algorithm was developed and evaluated by survival analysis. Firstly, a gland segmentation model was developed for segmenting gland structures. Gland regions of WSIs were delineated and used for differentiation annotating. Tumor regions were annotated by experienced pathologists into high-, medium-, low-differentiation and normal tissue, which correspond to tumor with clear-, unclear-, no-gland structure and non-tumor, respectively. Then a differentiation prediction model was developed on these human annotations. Finally, all enrolled WSIs were processed by gland segmentation model and differentiation prediction model. The differentiation grade can be calculated by deep learning models’ prediction of tumor regions and tumor differentiation status according to WHO’s defines. If multiple WSIs were possessed by a patient, the highest differentiation grade was chosen. Additionally, the differentiation grade was normalized into scale between 0 to 1. The Cancer Genome Atlas, project COAD (TCGA-COAD) project was enrolled into this study. For the gland segmentation model, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) reached 0.981 and accuracy reached 0.932 in validation set. For the differentiation prediction model, ROC reached 0.983, 0.963, 0.963, 0.981 and accuracy reached 0.880, 0.923, 0.668, 0.881 for groups of low-, medium-, high-differentiation and normal tissue in validation set. Four hundred and one patients were selected after removing WSIs without gland regions and patients without follow up data. The concordance index reached to 0.609. Optimized cut off point of 51% was found by “Maxstat” method which was almost the same as WHO system’s cut off point of 50%. Both WHO system’s cut off point and optimized cut off point performed impressively in Kaplan-Meier curves and both p value of logrank test were below 0.005. In this study, gland structure of WSIs and differentiation status of tumor regions were proven to be predictable through deep leaning method. A finer and continuous differentiation grade can also be automatically calculated through above models. The differentiation grade was proven to stratify CAC patients well in survival analysis, whose optimized cut off point was almost the same as WHO tumor grading system. The tool of automatically calculating differentiation grade may show potential in field of therapy decision making and personalized treatment.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, differentiation, survival analysis, tumor grading

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Authors: Marcelo Sanhueza Cartes, Nelson Maureira Carsalade

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This research evaluates the effectiveness of a pallet isolation device for the protection of selective-type industrial storage racks. The device works only in the longitudinal direction of the aisle, and it is made up of a platform installed on the rack beams. At both ends, the platform is connected to the rack structure by means of a spring-damper system working in parallel. A system of wheels is arranged between the isolation platform and the rack beams in order to reduce friction, decoupling of the movement and improve the effectiveness of the device. The latter is evaluated by the reduction of the maximum dynamic responses of basal shear load and story drift in relation to those corresponding to the same rack with the traditional construction system. In the first stage, numerical simulations of industrial storage racks were carried out with and without the pallet isolation device. The numerical results allowed us to identify the archetypes in which it would be more appropriate to carry out experimental tests, thus limiting the number of trials. In the second stage, experimental tests were carried out on a shaking table to a select group of full-scale racks with and without the proposed device. The movement simulated by the shaking table was based on the Mw 8.8 magnitude earthquake of February 27, 2010, in Chile, registered at the San Pedro de la Paz station. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) was scaled in the frequency domain to fit its response spectrum with the design spectrum of NCh433. The experimental setup contemplates the installation of sensors to measure relative displacement and absolute acceleration. The movement of the shaking table with respect to the ground, the inter-story drift of the rack and the pallets with respect to the rack structure were recorded. Accelerometers redundantly measured all of the above in order to corroborate measurements and adequately capture low and high-frequency vibrations, whereas displacement and acceleration sensors are respectively more reliable. The numerical and experimental results allowed us to identify that the pallet isolation period is the variable with the greatest influence on the dynamic responses considered. It was also possible to identify that the proposed device significantly reduces both the basal cut and the maximum inter-story drift by up to one order of magnitude.

Keywords: pallet isolation system, industrial storage racks, basal shear load, interstory drift.

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Authors: Julio Vicente Cateia

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This paper aims to assess the role of informality and trade facilitation on the export probability of Guinea-Bissau. We include informality in the Féchet function, which gives the expression for the country's supply probability. We find that Guinea-Bissau is about 7.2% less likely to export due to the 1% increase in informality. The export's probability increases by about 1.7%, 4%, and 1.1% due to a 1% increase in trade facilitation, R&D stock, and year of education. These results are significant at the usual levels. We suggest a development agenda aimed at reducing the level of informality in this country.

Keywords: development, trade, informality, trade facilitation, economy of Guinea-Bissau

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Authors: T. Heikkinen, J. Oksman, T. Bragge, A. Nurmi, O. Kontkanen, T. Ahtoniemi

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Motor impairment is an inherent phenotypic feature of several chronic neurodegenerative diseases, and pharmacological therapies aimed to counterbalance the motor disability have a great market potential. Animal models of chronic neurodegenerative diseases display a number deteriorating motor phenotype during the disease progression. There is a wide array of behavioral tools to evaluate motor functions in rodents. However, currently existing methods to study motor functions in rodents are often limited to evaluate gross motor functions only at advanced stages of the disease phenotype. The most commonly applied traditional motor assays used in CNS rodent models, lack the sensitivity to capture fine motor impairments or improvements. Fine motor skill characterization in rodents provides a more sensitive tool to capture more subtle motor dysfunctions and therapeutic effects. Importantly, similar approach, kinematic movement analysis, is also used in clinic, and applied both in diagnosis and determination of therapeutic response to pharmacological interventions. The aim of this study was to apply kinematic gait analysis, a novel and automated high precision movement analysis system, to characterize phenotypic deficits in three different chronic neurodegenerative animal models, a transgenic mouse model (SOD1 G93A) for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), and R6/2 and Q175KI mouse models for Huntington’s disease (HD). The readouts from walking behavior included gait properties with kinematic data, and body movement trajectories including analysis of various points of interest such as movement and position of landmarks in the torso, tail and joints. Mice (transgenic and wild-type) from each model were analyzed for the fine motor kinematic properties at young ages, prior to the age when gross motor deficits are clearly pronounced. Fine motor kinematic Evaluation was continued in the same animals until clear motor dysfunction with conventional motor assays was evident. Time course analysis revealed clear fine motor skill impairments in each transgenic model earlier than what is seen with conventional gross motor tests. Motor changes were quantitatively analyzed for up to ~80 parameters, and the largest data sets of HD models were further processed with principal component analysis (PCA) to transform the pool of individual parameters into a smaller and focused set of mutually uncorrelated gait parameters showing strong genotype difference. Kinematic fine motor analysis of transgenic animal models described in this presentation show that this method isa sensitive, objective and fully automated tool that allows earlier and more sensitive detection of progressive neuromuscular and CNS disease phenotypes. As a result of the analysis a comprehensive set of fine motor parameters for each model is created, and these parameters provide better understanding of the disease progression and enhanced sensitivity of this assay for therapeutic testing compared to classical motor behavior tests. In SOD1 G93A, R6/2, and Q175KI mice, the alterations in gait were evident already several weeks earlier than with traditional gross motor assays. Kinematic testing can be applied to a wider set of motor readouts beyond gait in order to study whole body movement patterns such as with relation to joints and various body parts longitudinally, providing a sophisticated and translatable method for disseminating motor components in rodent disease models and evaluating therapeutic interventions.

Keywords: Gait analysis, kinematic, motor impairment, inherent feature

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Authors: Doug Specht

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This research project sought to explore the links between digital media, PGIS and social movement organisations in Tolima, Colombia. The primary aim of the research was to examine how knowledge is created and disseminated through digital media and GIS in the region, and whether there exists the infrastructure to allow for this. The second strand was to ascertain if this has had a significant impact on the way grassroots movements work and produce collective actions. The third element is a hypothesis about how digital media and PGIS could play a larger role in activist activities, particularly in reference to the extractive industries. Three theoretical strands have been brought together to provide a basis for this research, namely (a) the politics of knowledge, (b) spatial management and inclusion, and (c) digital media and political engagement. Quantitative data relating to digital media and mobile internet use was collated alongside qualitative data relating to the likelihood of using digital media in activist campaigns, with particular attention being given to grassroots movements working against extractive industries in the Tolima region of Colombia. Through interviews, surveys and GIS analysis it has been possible to build a picture of online activism and the role of PPGIS within protest movement in the region of Tolima, Colombia. Results show a gap between the desires of social movements to use digital media and the skills and finances required to implement programs that utilise it. Maps and GIS are generally reserved for legal cases rather than for informing the lay person. However, it became apparent that the combination of digital/social media and PPGIS could play a significant role in supporting the work of grassroots movements.

Keywords: PGIS, GIS, social media, digital media, mining, colombia, social movements, protest

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Authors: Arun Goel

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The present paper attempts to investigate the prediction of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency of a free over-fall jets issuing from a triangular sharp crested weir by using regression based modelling. The empirical equations, support vector machine (polynomial and radial basis function) models and the linear regression techniques were applied on the triangular sharp crested weirs relating the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency to the input parameters namely drop height, discharge, and vertex angle. It was observed that there exists a good agreement between the measured values and the values obtained using empirical equations, support vector machine (Polynomial and rbf) models, and the linear regression techniques. The test results demonstrated that the SVM based (Poly & rbf) model also provided acceptable prediction of the measured values with reasonable accuracy along with empirical equations and linear regression techniques in modelling the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency of a free over-fall jets issuing from triangular sharp crested weir. Further sensitivity analysis has also been performed to study the impact of input parameter on the output in terms of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency.

Keywords: air entrainment rate, dissolved oxygen, weir, SVM, regression

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Authors: Ya Lv

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This article presents the application of the semi-analytic method (SAM) in the thermal management solution (TMS) of the energy storage system (ESS). The TMS studied in this work is fluid cooling. In fluid cooling, both effective heat conduction and heat convection are indispensable due to the heat transfer from solid to fluid. Correspondingly, an efficient TMS requires a design investigation of the following parameters: fluid inlet temperature, ESS initial temperature, fluid flow rate, working c rate, continuous working time, and materials properties. Their variation induces a change of thermal performance in the battery module, which is usually evaluated by numerical simulation. Compared to complicated computation resources and long computation time in simulation, the SAM is developed in this article to predict the thermal influence within a few seconds. In SAM, a fast prediction model is reckoned by combining numerical simulation with theoretical/empirical equations. The SAM can explore the thermal effect of boundary parameters in both steady-state and transient heat transfer scenarios within a short time. Therefore, the SAM developed in this work can simplify the design cycle of TMS and inspire more possibilities in TMS design.

Keywords: semi-analytic method, fast prediction model, thermal influence of boundary parameters, energy storage system

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Authors: Enrico Maria la Forgia

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Since the 80ies, in specific situations, France’s Muslims have enacted political actions to reply to attacks on their identity or assimilation attempts, using their religious affiliation as a resource for the organization and expression of collective claims. Indeed, despite Islam's internal sectarian and ethnic differences, religion may be politicized when minorities’ social and cultural rights are under attack. French Civil Society organizations, in this specific case with an Islamic background (ICSO - Islamic Civil Society Organizations), play an essential role in defending Muslims’ social and cultural rights. As a matter of fact, Civil Society organized on an ethnic or religious base is a way to strengthen minoritarian communities and their role as political actors, especially in multicultural contexts. Since the first 1983’s “Marche des Beurs” (slang word referring to French citizens with foreign origins), which involved many Muslims, the development of ICSO contributed to the strenghtening of Islam in France, here meant as a Social Movement aiming to constitute a French version of Islam, defending minorities’ cultural and religious rights, and change the perception of Islam itself in national society. However, since a visible and stigmatized minority, ICSO do not relate only to protests as a strategy to achieve their goals: on several occasions, pressure on authorities through personal networks and connections, or the introduction into public debates of bargaining through the exploitation of national or international crisis, might appear as more successfully - public discourses on minorities and Islam are generally considered favorable conditions to advance requests for cultural legitimation. The proposed abstract, based on a literary review and theoretical/methodological reflection on the state of knowledge on the topic, aims to open a new branch of studies and analysis of Civil Society and Social Movements in Europe, focusing on the French Islamic community as a political actor relating on ICSO to pressure society, local, and national authorities to improve Muslims' rights. The opted methodology relies on a qualitative approach based on ethnography and face-to-face interviews addressing heads and middle-high level activists from ICSO, in an attempt to individuate the strategies enacted by ICSO for mobilizing Muslims and build relations with, on one hand, local and national authorities; into the other, with actors belonging to the Civil Society/political sphere. The theoretical framework, instead, relies on the main Social Movements Theories (resources mobilization, political opportunity structure, and contentious/non-contentious movements), aiming to individuate eventual gaps in the analysis of Islamic Social Movements and Civil Society in minoritarian contexts.

Keywords: Islam, islamophobia, civil society, social movements, sociology, qualitative methodology, Islamic activism in social movement theory, political change, Islam as social movement, religious movements, protest and politics, France, Islamic civil society

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Authors: Richard Sogah

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The significance of transport infrastructure investments for economic growth and development has been central to the World Bank’s strategy for poverty reduction. Among the conventional surface transport infrastructures, road infrastructure is significant in facilitating the movement of human capital goods and services. When transport projects (i.e., roads, super-highways) are implemented, they come along with some negative social values (costs), such as increased noise and air pollution for local residents living near these facilities, displaced individuals, etc. However, these projects also facilitate better utilization of existing capital stock and generate other observable benefits that can be easily quantified. For example, the improvement or construction of roads creates employment, stimulates revenue generation (toll), reduces vehicle operating costs and accidents, increases accessibility, trade expansion, safety improvement, etc. Aside from these benefits, travel time savings (TTSs) which are the major economic benefits of urban and inter-urban transport projects and therefore integral in the economic assessment of transport projects, are often overlooked and omitted when estimating the benefits of transport projects, especially in developing countries. The absence of current and reliable domestic travel data and the inability of replicated models from the developed world to capture the actual value of travel time savings due to the large unemployment, underemployment, and other labor-induced distortions has contributed to the failure to assign value to travel time savings when estimating the benefits of transport schemes in developing countries. This omission of the value of travel time savings from the benefits of transport projects in developing countries poses problems for investors and stakeholders to either accept or dismiss projects based on schemes that favor reduced vehicular operating costs and other parameters rather than those that ease congestion, increase average speed, facilitate walking and handloading, and thus save travel time. Given the complex reality in the estimation of the value of travel time savings and the presence of widespread informal labour activities in Sub-Saharan Africa, we construct a “nationally ranked distribution of time values” and estimate the value of travel time savings based on the area beneath the distribution. Compared with other approaches, our method captures both formal sector workers and individuals/people who work outside the formal sector and hence changes in their time allocation occur in the informal economy and household production activities. The dataset for the estimations is sourced from the World Bank, the International Labour Organization, etc.

Keywords: road infrastructure, transport projects, travel time savings, congestion, Sub-Sahara Africa

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Authors: Anton Andreev

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With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the collapse of a large part of the socialist regimes, left-wing parties all over the world entered the space of crisis, of problems with ideology, identity, with the definition of its goals and objectives. First of all, we can say that the communist parties actually lost their foundation. In 1992, despite the victory of left-wing forces, a Broad Front in which was the winner in the struggle against dictatorship plunged into a deep crisis, the nature of which is looking for a new platform, a new foundation, new goals. Thus, in the late 20th century, the party has revised theoretical beliefs and positions. Radical communist ideology was moderated to social reformism. Modern leftist movement in Uruguay is a movement of moderate reform. Left forces suggest going through successive changes. Changes in ideology and ideas have influenced to the understanding of foreign policy. After the collapse of the Soviet Union Broad Front has changed the direction of its diplomacy from the orientation to the Soviet state to support the USA policy. Government formed by Broad Front, supported the integration processes in the South America. Uruguay was developing the cooperation in the framework of MERCOSUR and began to create relationship with the new centers of power in world political space. Uruguay in the early 21st century is a country that starts to play important role in the international arena. Elections of 26 October 2014 should answer the question of support of internal policy of a Broad Front, as well as of the support of the diplomatic work of the "Left" governments of the country.

Keywords: Uruguay, broad front, Vazquez, international dimensions

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Authors: Syed Atif Hassan, Luv Mehta, Syed Asif Hassan

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Hit song science is a field of investigation wherein machine learning techniques are applied to music tracks in order to extract such features from audio signals which can capture information that could explain the popularity of respective tracks. Record companies invest huge amounts of money into recruiting fresh talents and churning out new music each year. Gaining insight into the basis of why a song becomes popular will result in tremendous benefits for the music industry. This paper aims to extract basic musical and more advanced, acoustic features from songs while also taking into account external factors that play a role in making a particular song popular. We use a dataset derived from popular Spotify playlists divided by genre. We use ten genres (blues, classical, country, disco, hip-hop, jazz, metal, pop, reggae, rock), chosen on the basis of clear to ambiguous delineation in the typical sound of their genres. We feed these features into three different classifiers, namely, SVM with RBF kernel, a deep neural network, and a recurring neural network, to build separate predictive models and choosing the best performing model at the end. Predicting song popularity is particularly important for the music industry as it would allow record companies to produce better content for the masses resulting in a more competitive market.

Keywords: classifier, machine learning, music tracks, popularity, prediction

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Authors: Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Lidija R. Jevrić, Strahinja Z. Kovačević

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Benzimidazoles are a group of compounds with significant antibacterial, antifungal and anticancer activity. The studied compounds consist of the main benzimidazole structure with different combinations of substituens. This study is based on the two-dimensional and three-dimensional molecular modeling and calculation of molecular descriptors (physicochemical and lipophilicity descriptors) of structurally diverse benzimidazoles. Molecular modeling was carried out by using ChemBio3D Ultra version 14.0 software. The obtained 3D models were subjected to energy minimization using molecular mechanics force field method (MM2). The cutoff for structure optimization was set at a gradient of 0.1 kcal/Åmol. The obtained set of molecular descriptors was used in principal component analysis (PCA) of possible similarities and dissimilarities among the studied derivatives. After the molecular modeling, the quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) analysis was applied in order to get the mathematical models which can be used in prediction of pKb values of structurally similar benzimidazoles. The obtained models are based on statistically valid multiple linear regression (MLR) equations. The calculated cross-validation parameters indicate the high prediction ability of the established QSPR models. This study is financially supported by COST action CM1306 and the project No. 114-451-347/2015-02, financially supported by the Provincial Secretariat for Science and Technological Development of Vojvodina.

Keywords: benzimidazoles, chemometrics, molecular modeling, molecular descriptors, QSPR

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Authors: Muhammad Sajjad-ur-Rehman

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Pakistan was meant to be a progressive modern Muslim nation state since its inception in 1947. Its birth was a big hope for the Muslims of Sub-continent to transform their societies on Islamic lines—the promise which made them unite and vote for Pakistan during independence movement. This was the vision put forwarded by Allama Iqbal and Muhammad Ali Jinnah—the two founding fathers of Pakistan. Dwelling on interpretive/ analytical approach, this paper analyzes the thoughts and reflections of Iqbal and Jinnah to understand the issues of collective identity formation in Pakistan. It argues that there may be traced two distinct identity models in the thoughts and reflections of these two leading figures of Pakistan movement: First may be called as ‘faith-based identity model’ while the other may be named as ‘interests-based identity model’. These can also be entitled as ‘Islam-as-faith model’ and ‘Islam-as-ideology model’. Former seeks the diffusion of power by cultural/ faith based means and thus society remains independent in determining its change. While the later goes on to open and expand the power realm by maximizing the role of state in determining the social change. With the help of these models, it can better be explained that what made Pakistani society fail in the collective political identity construction, hindering thus the political potential of the society to be utilized for initiating state formation and societal growth. As a result, today, we see a state that is often rebelled and resisted on the name of ethnicity, religion and sectarianism on one hand and by the ordinary folk when and wherever possible.

Keywords: idealogy, Iqbal, Jinnah, identity

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Authors: D. Mehdizadeh, M. Rahimian, M. Eskandari-Ghadi

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This article is concerned with the determination of the static interaction of a vertically loaded rigid circular disc embedded at the interface of a horizontal layer sandwiched in between two different transversely isotropic half-spaces called as tri-material full-space. The axes of symmetry of different regions are assumed to be normal to the horizontal interfaces and parallel to the movement direction. With the use of a potential function method, and by implementing Hankel integral transforms in the radial direction, the government partial differential equation for the solely scalar potential function is transformed to an ordinary 4th order differential equation, and the mixed boundary conditions are transformed into a pair of integral equations called dual integral equations, which can be reduced to a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind, which is solved analytically. Then, the displacements and stresses are given in the form of improper line integrals, which is due to inverse Hankel integral transforms. It is shown that the present solutions are in exact agreement with the existing solutions for a homogeneous full-space with transversely isotropic material. To confirm the accuracy of the numerical evaluation of the integrals involved, the numerical results are compared with the solutions exists for the homogeneous full-space. Then, some different cases with different degrees of material anisotropy are compared to portray the effect of degree of anisotropy.

Keywords: transversely isotropic, rigid disc, elasticity, dual integral equations, tri-material full-space

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