Search results for: period change

Authors: Thomas Lauer

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The paper aims to give an overview of change management research by using bibliometric methodology. Based on research papers of the last decade, which are listed on Research Gate, a multidimensional categorization is done. Considering categories like topic (e.g., success factors), industry, or research methodology, the development of the discipline is traced and, in a second step, confronted with external developments of the business environment, such as climate change, gen Z or COVID, to name a few. Based on these findings, a final evaluation concerning the thematical fit of previous research topics is also made, as well as a preview of likely future trends in change management sciences.

Keywords: change management, bibliometrics, scientific trends, research topics

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Authors: Tony Mann

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This paper sets out the case for involving and engaging employees/workers/stakeholders/staff in any significant change that is being considered by the senior executives of the organization. It establishes the rationale, the approach, the methodology of engagement and the benefits of a participative approach. It challenges the new norm of imposing change for fear of resistance and instead suggests that involving people has better outcomes and a longer-lasting impact. Various strategic models are introduced and illustrated to explain how the process can be most effective. The paper highlights one model in particular (the Process Iceberg® Organizational Change model) that has proven to be instrumental in developing effective change. Its use is demonstrated in its various forms and explains why so much change fails to address the key elements and how we can be more productive in managing change. ‘Participation’ in change is too often seen as negative, expensive and unwieldy. The paper aims to show that another model: UIA=O+E, can offset the difficulties and, in fact, produce much more positive and effective change.

Keywords: facilitation, stakeholders, buy-in, digital workshops

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Authors: Bright Annang Baah

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Evaluating public perceptions of climate change risk and the elements that impact them has been shown to be critical in developing support for climate change action. Previous research has found a variety of elements, including the experience of extreme weather events, that impact public perceptions and worries about climate change. However, little is known about the public's perception of climate change risks and the variables that influence them in developing countries. Using a household survey, this study attempted to evaluate respondents' risk perceptions of climate change, as well as the impact of flooding experience on such beliefs. The findings demonstrate that flood victims have a greater risk perception and are more concerned about climate change than non-victims. Concerns regarding the effects of climate change, on the other hand, were found to be the lowest when compared to other pressing challenges confronting the country. This study's findings contribute to the understanding of climate change risk perception and the impact of extreme weather events from the perspective of a developing nation.

Keywords: climate change risk perception, harsh weather, perceived concern, Accra, Ghana

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Authors: Bayoumy Mohamed, Khaled Alam El-Din

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In the present study, 24 years of gridded sea level anomalies (SLA) from satellite altimetry and sea surface temperature (SST) from advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) daily data (1993-2016) are used. These data have been used to investigate the sea level rising and warming rates of SST, and their spatial distribution in the Mediterranean Sea. The results revealed that there is a significant sea level rise in the Mediterranean Sea of 2.86 ± 0.45 mm/year together with a significant warming of 0.037 ± 0.007 °C/year. The high spatial correlation between sea level and SST variations suggests that at least part of the sea level change reported during the period of study was due to heating of surface layers. This indicated that the steric effect had a significant influence on sea level change in the Mediterranean Sea.

Keywords: altimetry, AVHRR, Mediterranean Sea, sea level and SST changes, trend analysis

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Authors: Onu Theresa Chinyere

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The study evaluates the perceived effect of climate change on nutritional status of women in Nigeria. Five research questions and two hypotheses were formulated to guide the study. The study adopted a survey and experimental study research design. One thousand two hundred and fifty one (1,250) respondents were selected from different State in Nigeria using multistage sampling technique. The instruments used to collect data were questionnaire and personal interview on socio economic characteristics of respondents, while Anthropometric data (height and weight) were also used. The data was analyzed using t-test statistic, decided at 50% level of significance. The study found that most states in Nigeria experience high winds, warmer and frequent hot days and night over most land areas, droughts and tides during climate change events. The respondent unanimously agree that climate change causes reduction in food yields, decline in food availability/supply, negatively affecting soil quality, carbon fertilization, decreases flexibilities in technology choices to strengthen food production. The Anthropometric analysis shows that out of 1250 women sampled, 560 (44.8%) maintain normal weight, while 405 (32.40%) women were found to be underweight, since their body mass index is less that 18.5. There were few cases of obesity among the surveyed women since only 80 out of 1250 which represent 6.4% of the women were obese. Bases on the findings, the following recommendations were made-local fertilizer should be encouraged to boost foods yield especially during climate change: women should imbibe the culture of preservation or reservoir that will help in mitigating the effects of climate on food intake and nutritional status, especially during the crisis period, among others.

Keywords: climate change, nutrition anthropometric analysis, obesity culture, environment and women among others

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Authors: Nowshin Nabila Siddique, S. M. Mustafizur Rahman

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There is evidence of cyclonic events in Bay of Bengal (BoB) throughout the year. These cyclones cause a variety of fluctuations along its track including the is the influence in Chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration. The main purpose of this paper is to justify this variation pattern. Six Tropical Cyclones (TC) are studied using observational method. The result suggests that there is a noticeable change in productivity after a cyclone passes, when the pre cyclonic and post cyclonic condition is observed. In case of Cyclone Amphan, it shows 1.79 mg/m3 of chlorophyll-a concentration increase after a week of cyclonic occurrence. This change is affected by several attributes such as translation speed, intensity and Ocean Pre-condition, specifically Mixed Layer Depth (MLD). Translation Speed and MLD shows a strong negative correlation with the induced chlorophyll concentration. Whereas the effect of the intensity on a cyclone is not that prominent. It is also found that the period of starting an induction is not same for all cyclone such as in case of Cyclone Amphan, the changes started to occur after one day however for Cyclone Sidr and Cyclone Mora it started after three days. Furthermore, a slightly increase in overall productivity is also observed after a cyclone. In the case of Cyclone Amphan, Hudhud, Phailin it shows a rise up to 0.12 mg/m3 in productivity which decreases gradually taking around the period of two months. On a whole this paper signifies the changes in chlorophyll concentration caused by numerous cyclones and its different characteristics that regulates these changes.

Keywords: tropical cyclone, chlorophyll-a concentration, mixed layer depth, translation speed

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Authors: John Wangui, Charles Gachene, Stephen Mureithi, Boniface Kiteme

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Land use changes caused by demographic, natural variability, economic, technological and policy factors affect the goods and services derived from an ecosystem. In the past few decades, Lake Ol Bolossat catchment in Nyandarua County Kenya has been facing challenges of land cover changes threatening its capacity to perform ecosystems functions and adversely affecting communities and ecosystems downstream. This study assessed land cover changes in the catchment for a period of twenty eight years (from 1986 to 2014). Analysis of three Landsat images i.e. L5 TM 1986, L5 TM 1995 and L8 OLI/TIRS 2014 was done using ERDAS 9.2 software. The results show that dense forest, cropland and area under water increased by 27%, 29% and 3% respectively. On the other hand, open forest, dense grassland, open grassland, bushland and shrubland decreased by 3%, 3%, 11%, 26% and 1% respectively during the period under assessment. The lake was noted to have increased due to siltation caused by soil erosion causing a reduction in Lake’s depth and consequently causing temporary flooding of the wetland. The study concludes that the catchment is under high demographic pressure which would lead to resource use conflicts and therefore formulation of mitigation measures is highly recommended.

Keywords: land cover, land use change, land degradation, Nyandarua, Remote sensing

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Authors: Khuram Nawaz Sadozai, Sonia

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The agriculture sector is deemed more vulnerable to climate change as its variation can directly affect the crop’s productivity, but farmers’ adaptation strategies play a vital role in climate change-agriculture relationship. Therefore, this research has been undertaken to assess the Climate Change impact on wheat productivity and farmers’ adaptability strategies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan. The panel dataset was analyzed to gauge the impact of changing climate variables (i.e., temperature, rainfall, and humidity) on wheat productivity from 1985 to 2015. Amid the study period, the fixed effect estimates confirmed an inverse relationship of temperature and rainfall on the wheat yield. The impact of temperature is observed to be detrimental as compared to the rainfall, causing 0.07 units reduction in the production of wheat with 1C upsurge in temperature. On the flip side, humidity revealed a positive association with the wheat productivity by confirming that high humidity could be beneficial to the production of the crop over time. Thus, this study ensures significant nexus between agricultural production and climatic parameters. However, the farming community in the underlying study area has limited knowledge about the adaptation strategies to lessen the detrimental impact of changing climate on crop yield. It is recommended that farmers should be well equipped with training and advanced agricultural management practices under the realm of climate change. Moreover, innovative technologies pertinent to the agriculture system should be encouraged to handle the challenges arising due to variations in climate factors.

Keywords: climate change, fixed effect model, panel data, wheat productivity

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Authors: Benjamin Anabaraonye

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Our environment is our entitlement, and it is our duty to guard it for the safety of our society. It is, therefore, in our best interest to explore the necessary tools required to tackle the issues of environmental pollution which are major causes of climate change. Poetry has been discovered through our study as a valuable tool for tackling climate change and environmental pollution. This study explores the science of poetry and how important it is for scientists and engineers to develop their creativity to obtain relevant skills needed to tackle these global challenges. Poetry has been discovered as a great tool for climate change education which in turn brings about climate change adaptation and mitigation. This paper is, therefore, a clarion and urgent call for us to rise to our responsibility for a sustainable future.

Keywords: climate change, education, environment, poetry

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Authors: Sejin Jung, Dongho Kang, Byungsik Kim

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Assessing the impact of climate change requires the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to quantify uncertainties between scenarios and produce downscaled outlines for simulation of climate under the influence of different factors, including topography. This study decreases climate change scenarios from the 13 global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impacts of future climate change. Unlike South Korea, North Korea lacks in studies using climate change scenarios of the CoupledModelIntercomparisonProject (CMIP5), and only recently did the country start the projection of extreme precipitation episodes. One of the main purposes of this study is to predict changes in the average climatic conditions of North Korea in the future. The result of comparing downscaled climate change scenarios with observation data for a reference period indicates high applicability of the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME). Furthermore, the study classifies climatic zones by applying the Köppen-Geiger climate classification system to the MME, which is validated for future precipitation and temperature. The result suggests that the continental climate (D) that covers the inland area for the reference climate is expected to shift into the temperate climate (C). The coefficient of variation (CVs) in the temperature ensemble is particularly low for the southern coast of the Korean peninsula, and accordingly, a high possibility of the shifting climatic zone of the coast is predicted. This research was supported by a grant (MOIS-DP-2015-05) of Disaster Prediction and Mitigation Technology Development Program funded by Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS, Korea).

Keywords: MME, North Korea, Koppen–Geiger, climatic zones, coefficient of variation, CV

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Authors: Hany Mustafa, Mahmoud Roushdi, Khaled Kheireldin

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Rainfall variability is an important feature of semi-arid climates. Climate change is very likely to increase the frequency, magnitude, and variability of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and storms. The Blue Nile Basin is facing extreme climate change-related events such as floods and droughts and its possible impacts on ecosystem, livelihood, agriculture, livestock, and biodiversity are expected. Rainfall variability is a threat to food production in the Blue Nile Basin countries. This study investigates the long-term variations and trends of seasonal and annual precipitation over the Blue Nile Basin for 102-year period (1901-2002). Six statistical trend analysis of precipitation was performed with nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. On the other hands, four statistical absolute homogeneity tests: Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, Buishand Range test, Pettitt test and the Von Neumann ratio test were applied to test the homogeneity of the rainfall data, using XLSTAT software, which results of p-valueless than alpha=0.05, were significant. The percentages of significant trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons are presented. The study recommends adaptation strategies to be streamlined to relevant policies, enhancing local farmers’ adaptive capacity for facing future climate change effects.

Keywords: Blue Nile basin, climate change, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis

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Authors: Osman Yildiz

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As it is predicted 2559 years before there is nothing permanent except change. In our turbulent World, Organizations will always be faced with the challenge of determining the path that will always keep them on balance en route that will bring success. That means from top to bottom, every organisation is exposed to fight to stay afloat and compete while they face the continuous prospect of change in an increasingly competitive and globalized World. Otherwise, they would fail to realize their goals and targets, and ultimately would disappear. But the organizations that will celebrate success five or ten years from now will be the winners of the fight by having recognizing that planning the change was only the first step in the journey and put sufficient efforts into the task of leading change. Increasingly unpredictable and competitive organizational environments have put pressure on leaders across all industries to better manage the change. The key of establishing effective change and transformation in organisations lies on the steps taken before the change happens depending to the quality of the human sources; readiness for change, acknowledgement by management, prepared leaders, motivated employees, overcoming the resistance to change and ultimately adapting change into the organization. Due to these factors, leaders managing the organisational development can ensure organizations and employees to meet new performance targets, motivation and skills rapidly and effectively. Finally, this article will provide some tools for leaders, and discuss how to catch organisational development and manage the innovations in effective ways.

Keywords: managing the change, organizational change, human factor, leaders, globalization, organisational development

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Authors: Rituparna Nath, Shawn J. Marshall

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Glaciers are one of the main sensitive climatic indicators, as they respond strongly to small climatic shifts. We develop a flow line model of glacier dynamics to simulate the past and future extent of glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, with the aim of coupling this model within larger scale regional climate models of glacier response to climate change. This paper will focus on glacier-climate modeling and reconstructions of glacier volume from the Little Ice Age (LIA) to present for Athabasca Glacier, Alberta, Canada. Glacier thickness, volume and mass change will be constructed using flow line modelling and examination of different climate scenarios that are able to give good reconstructions of LIA ice extent. With the availability of SPOT 5 imagery, Digital elevation models and GIS Arc Hydro tool, ice catchment properties-glacier width and LIA moraines have been extracted using automated procedures. Simulation of glacier mass change will inform estimates of meltwater run off over the historical period and model calibration from the LIA reconstruction will aid in future projections of the effects of climate change on glacier recession. Furthermore, the model developed will be effective for further future studies with ensembles of glaciers.

Keywords: flow line modeling, Athabasca Glacier, glacier mass balance, Remote Sensing, Arc hydro tool, little ice age

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Authors: Manoj Parmar

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The article uses reflexivity as a research method to investigate and propose an architectural theory plan for climate change. It hypothecates that to discuss or formulate discourse on "Architectural Thinking in a Time of Climate Emergency," firstly, we need to understand the modes of integration that enable architectural thinking with climate change. The study intends to study the various integration modes that have evolved historically and situate them in time. Subsequently, it analyses the integration pattern, challenges the existing model, and finds a way towards climate change as central to architectural thinking. The study is fundamental on-premises that ecology and climate change scholarship has consistently out lashed the asymmetrical and nonlinear knowledge and needs approaches for architecture that are less burden to climate change to people and minimize its impact on ecology.

Keywords: climate change, architectural theory, reflexivity, modernity

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Authors: Doaa Abbas Zaher

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For the past two decades demand for knowledge has been increasing. Management of society’s knowledge has far reaching effects to economic growth through increased capacity to complete viable activities. Organizations use information technology to effect organizational change. This is a challenge for the less developed nations whose capacity to integrate knowledge in core functions is limited. This creates organizational problems as there is global competition amongst organizations. Cross-cultural perceptions influence difference knowledge Management. This study provides a cross-cultural analysis on the influence in knowledge culture in Japan and Saudi Arabia to effect change in organizations. Since different countries adopt different knowledge management strategies, this dictates the state of organizational development through enriched organizational culture. The research uses a mixed approach design to collect data from primary and secondary sources. Primary source will use the questionnaires while secondary sources uses case analysis from books, articles, reports, and journals. The study will take a period of three years to come up with a complete paper.

Keywords: knowledge management, organizational culture, information, society knowledge

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Authors: David Idiata

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This paper is directed at using the UKCP09 climate change projection tool to predict the effect of climate change on the dynamic modulus of asphalt concrete is Southern England knowing that there is a pressing challenge directly facing infrastructure in the urban cities in the world today due to climate change. Climate change causes change in the environment which in turn impacts on the long-term structural performance of structures. From the projection values obtained, it was discovered that as the temperature increases, the dynamic modulus reduces and this effect was more on the South West which have temperature range of 36.8 oC to 48.3 oC and dynamic modulus range of 2,212 MPa to 1256 MPa.

Keywords: dynamic modulus, asphalt concrete, UKCP09, Southern England

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Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

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Climate change is continuously affecting the ecosystem, species distribution as well as global biodiversity. The assessment of the species potential distribution and the spatial changes under various climate change scenarios is a significant step towards the conservation and mitigation of habitat shifts, and species' loss and vulnerability. In this context, the present study aimed to predict the influence of current and future climate on an ecologically vulnerable medicinal species, Garcinia gummi-gutta, of the southern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. The future projections were made for the period of 2050 and 2070 with RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenario of 4.5 and 8.5 using 84 species occurrence data, and climatic variables from three different models of Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment. Climatic variables contributions were assessed using jackknife test and AOC value 0.888 indicates the model perform with high accuracy. The major influencing variables will be annual precipitation, precipitation of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of driest quarter. The model result shows that the current high potential distribution of the species is around 1.90% of the study area, 7.78% is good potential; about 90.32% is moderate to very low potential for species suitability. Finally, the results of all model represented that there will be a drastic decline in the suitable habitat distribution by 2050 and 2070 for all the RCP scenarios. The study signifies that MaxEnt model might be an efficient tool for ecosystem management, biodiversity protection, and species re-habitation planning under climate change.

Keywords: Garcinia gummi gutta, maximum entropy modeling, medicinal plants, climate change, western ghats, MaxEnt

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Authors: Ahmed M. Al-Hasem

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A study of the tidal current behavior and bathymetric changes was undertaken in order to establish an information base for future coastal management. The average velocity for tidal current was 0.46 m/s and the maximum velocity was 1.08 m/s during ebb tide. During spring tides, maximum velocities range from 0.90 m/s to 1.08 m/s, whereas maximum velocities vary from 0.40 m/s to 0.60 m/s during neap tides. Despite greater current velocities during flood tide, the bathymetric features enhance the dominance of the ebb tide. This can be related to the abundance of fine sediments from the ebb current approaching the study area, and the relatively coarser sediment from the approaching flood current. Significant bathymetric changes for the period from 1985 to 1998 were found with dominance of erosion process. Approximately 96.5% of depth changes occurred within the depth change classes of -5 m to 5 m. The high erosion processes within the study area will subsequently result in high accretion processes, particularly in the north, the location of the proposed Boubyan Port and its navigation channel.

Keywords: bathymetric change, Boubyan island, GIS, Khor Abdullah, tidal current behavior

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Authors: Felicia Kikelomo Oluwalola

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The study was designed to identify the challenges to change and innovation in educational system in Nigeria. Educational institutions, like all other organizations, require constant monitoring, to identify areas for potential improvement. However, educational reforms are often not well-implemented. This results in massive wastage of finances, human resources, and lost potential. Educational institutions are organised on many levels, from the individual classroom under the management of a single teacher, to groups of classrooms supervised by a Head Teacher or Executive Teacher, to a whole-school structure, under the guidance of the principal. Therefore, there is need for changes and innovation in our educational system since we are in the era of computer age. In doing so, this paper examined the psychology of change, concept of change and innovation with suggested view points. Educational administrators and individuals should be ready to have the challenge of monitoring changes in technologies. Educational planners/policy makers should be encouraged to involve in change process.

Keywords: challenges, change, education, innovation

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Authors: Mohamed Haffar, Lois Farquharson, Gbola Gbadamosi, Wafi Al-Karaghouli, Ramadane Djbarni

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A few recent research studies and mostly conceptual in nature have paid attention to the relationship between organizational culture (OC), individual readiness for change (IRFC) and individual affective commitment to change (IACC). Surprisingly enough, there is a lack of empirical studies investigating the influence of all four OC types on IRFC and IACC. Moreover, there is a very limited research investigating the mediating role of individual readiness for change between OC types and individual affective commitment to change. Therefore, this study is proposed to fill this gap by providing empirical evidence leading to advancement in the understanding of direct and indirect influences of OC on individual affective commitment to change. To achieve this, a questionnaire based survey was developed and self-administered to 226 middle managers in Algerian manufacturing organizations (AMOs). The results of this study indicated that group culture and adhocracy culture positively affect the IACC. Furthermore, the findings of this study show support for the mediating roles of self-efficacy and personally valence in the relationship between OC and IACC.

Keywords: individual readiness for change, individual commitment to change, organisational culture, manufacturing organisations

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Authors: Tayib Bromand, Keisuke Sato

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This paper presents the introduction to current water balance and climate change assessment in the Kabul river basin. The historical and future impacts of climate change on different components of water resources and hydrology in the Kabul river basin. The eastern part of Afghanistan, the Kabul river basin was chosen due to rapid population growth and land degradation to quantify the potential influence of Gobal Climate Change on its hydrodynamic characteristics. Luck of observed meteorological data was the main limitation of present research, few existed precipitation stations in the plain area of Kabul basin selected to compare with TRMM precipitation records, the result has been evaluated satisfactory based on regression and normal ratio methods. So the TRMM daily precipitation and NCEP temperature data set applied in the SWAT model to evaluate water balance for 2008 to 2012. Middle of the twenty – first century (2064) selected as the target period to assess impacts of climate change on hydrology aspects in the Kabul river basin. For this purpose three emission scenarios, A2, A1B and B1 and four GCMs, such as MIROC 3.2 (Med), CGCM 3.1 (T47), GFDL-CM2.0 and CNRM-CM3 have been selected, to estimate the future initial conditions of the proposed model. The outputs of the model compared and calibrated based on (R2) satisfactory. The assessed hydrodynamic characteristics and precipitation pattern. The results show that there will be significant impacts on precipitation patter such as decreasing of snowfall in the mountainous area of the basin in the Winter season due to increasing of 2.9°C mean annual temperature and land degradation due to deforestation.

Keywords: climate change, emission scenarios, hydrological components, Kabul river basin, SWAT model

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Authors: Mohammed Alassim

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In 2014, a UN survey stated that: "The greatest challenge to the adoption of whole-of government, which fundamentally rests on increased collaboration, is resistance to change among government actors". Change management has experienced both theoretically and practically many transformation over the years. When organizations have to implement radical changes, they have to encounter a plethora of issues which leads to ineffective or inefficient implementation of change in most cases. 70% of change projects fail because of human issues. It has been cited that” most studies still show a 60-70% failure rate for organizational change projects — a statistic that has stayed constant from the 1970’s to the present.”. E-government involves not just technical change but cultural, policy, social and organizational evolution. Managing change and overcoming resistance to change is seen as crucial in the success of E-government projects. Resistance can be from different levels in the organization (top management, middle management or employees at operational levels). There can be many reasons for resistance including fear of change and insecurity, lack of knowledge and absence of commitment from management to implement the change. The purpose of this study is to conduct in-depth research to understand the process of change and to identify the critical factors that have led to resistance from employees at different levels (top management, Middle management and operational employees) during e-government initiatives in the public sector in Saudi Arabia. The study is based on qualitative and empirical research methods conducted in the public sector in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This research will use triangulation in data method (interview, group discussion and document review). This research will contribute significantly to knowledge in this field and will identify the measures that can be taken to reduce resistance to change, Upon analysis recommendations or model will be offered which can enable decision makers in public sector in Saudi Arabia how to plan, implement and evaluate change in e-government initiatives via change management strategy.

Keywords: change management, e-government, managing change, resistance to change

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Authors: F. A. Al-Awadhi, D. Al-Hulail

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In this study, we applied the Bayesian hierarchical model to detect single and multiple change points for daily earthquake body wave magnitude. The change point analysis is used in both backward (off-line) and forward (on-line) statistical research. In this study, it is used with the backward approach. Different types of change parameters are considered (mean, variance or both). The posterior model and the conditional distributions for single and multiple change points are derived and implemented using BUGS software. The model is applicable for any set of data. The sensitivity of the model is tested using different prior and likelihood functions. Using Mb data, we concluded that during January 2002 and December 2003, three changes occurred in the mean magnitude of Mb in Kuwait and its vicinity.

Keywords: multiple change points, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, earthquake magnitude, hierarchical Bayesian mode

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Authors: Yan Fang, Jie Yin, Bihu Wu

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The interaction between climate change and tourism is one of the most promising research areas of recent decades. In this paper, a scientometric analysis of 976 academic publications between 1990 and 2015 related to climate change and tourism is presented in order to characterize the intellectual landscape by identifying and visualizing the evolution of the collaboration network, the co-citation network, and emerging trends of citation burst and keyword co-occurrence. The results show that the number of publications in this field has increased rapidly and it has become an interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary topic. The research areas are dominated by Australia, USA, Canada, New Zealand, and European countries, which have the most productive authors and institutions. The hot topics of climate change and tourism research in recent years are further identified, including the consequences of climate change for tourism, necessary adaptations, the vulnerability of the tourism industry, tourist behaviour and demand in response to climate change, and emission reductions in the tourism sector. The work includes an in-depth analysis of a major forum of climate change and tourism to help readers to better understand global trends in this field in the past 25 years.

Keywords: climate change, tourism, scientometrics, CiteSpace

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Authors: Stefan W. Kienzle

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The increasing number of occurrences of extreme weather and climate events have significant impacts on society and are the cause of continued and increasing loss of human and animal lives, loss or damage to property (houses, cars), and associated stresses to the public in coping with a changing climate. A climate index breaks down daily climate time series into meaningful derivatives, such as the annual number of frost days. Climate indices allow for the spatially consistent analysis of a wide range of climate-dependent variables, which enables the quantification and mapping of historical and future climate change across regions. As trends of phenomena such as the length of the growing season change differently in different hydro-climatological regions, mapping needs to be carried out at a high spatial resolution, such as the 10km by 10km Canadian Climate Grid, which has interpolated daily values from 1950 to 2017 for minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation. Climate indices form the basis for the analysis and comparison of means, extremes, trends, the quantification of changes, and their respective confidence levels. A total of 39 temperature indices and 16 precipitation indices were computed for the period 1951 to 2017 for the Province of Alberta. Temperature indices include the annual number of days with temperatures above or below certain threshold temperatures (0, +-10, +-20, +25, +30ºC), frost days, and timing of frost days, freeze-thaw days, growing or degree days, and energy demands for air conditioning and heating. Precipitation indices include daily and accumulated 3- and 5-day extremes, days with precipitation, period of days without precipitation, and snow and potential evapotranspiration. The rank-based nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistical test was used to determine the existence and significant levels of all associated trends. The slope of the trends was determined using the non-parametric Sen’s slope test. The Google mapping interface was developed to create the website albertaclimaterecords.com, from which beach of the 55 climate indices can be queried for any of the 6833 grid cells that make up Alberta. In addition to the climate indices, climate normals were calculated and mapped for four historical 30-year periods and one future period (1951-1980, 1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2017, 2041-2070). While winters have warmed since the 1950s by between 4 - 5°C in the South and 6 - 7°C in the North, summers are showing the weakest warming during the same period, ranging from about 0.5 - 1.5°C. New agricultural opportunities exist in central regions where the number of heat units and growing degree days are increasing, and the number of frost days is decreasing. While the number of days below -20ºC has about halved across Alberta, the growing season has expanded by between two and five weeks since the 1950s. Interestingly, both the number of days with heat waves and cold spells have doubled to four-folded during the same period. This research demonstrates the enormous potential of using climate indices at the best regional spatial resolution possible to enable society to understand historical and future climate changes of their region.

Keywords: climate change, climate indices, habitat risk, regional, mapping, extremes

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Authors: Preeyaphorn Kosa, Thanutch Sukwimolseree

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The climate change is a main parameter which affects the element of hydrological cycle especially runoff. Then, the purpose of this study is to determine the impact of the climate change on surface runoff using land use map on 2008 and daily weather data during January 1, 1979 to September 30, 2010 for SWAT model. SWAT continuously simulate time model and operates on a daily time step at basin scale. The results present that the effect of temperature change cannot be clearly presented on the change of runoff while the rainfall, relative humidity and evaporation are the parameters for the considering of runoff change. If there are the increasing of rainfall and relative humidity, there is also the increasing of runoff. On the other hand, if there is the increasing of evaporation, there is the decreasing of runoff.

Keywords: climate, runoff, SWAT, upper Mun River basin

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Authors: Tienfuan Kerh, Hsienchang Lu, Rob Saunders

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Shoreline erosion problems caused by global warming and sea level rising may result in losing of land areas, so it should be examined regularly to reduce possible negative impacts. Initially in this study, three sets of survey images obtained from the years of 1990, 2001, and 2010, respectively, are digitalized by using graphical software to establish the spatial coordinates of six major beaches around the island of Taiwan. Then, by overlaying the known multi-period images, the change of shoreline can be observed from their distribution of coordinates. In addition, the neural network approximation is used to develop a model for predicting shoreline variation in the years of 2015 and 2020. The comparison results show that there is no significant change of total sandy area for all beaches in the three different periods. However, the prediction results show that two beaches may exhibit an increasing of total sandy areas under a statistical 95% confidence interval. The proposed method adopted in this study may be applicable to other shorelines of interest around the world.

Keywords: digitalized shoreline coordinates, survey image overlaying, neural network approximation, total beach sandy areas

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Authors: Shekh Shadi Rahaman

Abstract:

In Bangladesh, basic human rights more specifically right to food and right to shelter are being adversely affected by the consequences of climate change. Over the last two decades, a considerable number of environmental studies revealed that basic human rights, more specifically, the right to food and right to a shelter are going to be seriously affected by climate change. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries and livestock, which are most sensitive to climate change, are key sources interconnected with food security and the security of shelter. Consequences of climate change affecting these key sources, and with the change of time, climate change is turning into a gigantic challenge towards ensuring basic human rights in Bangladesh. This study was carried out by employing a general review of literature on climate change, focusing on effects of climate change on basic two major human rights in Bangladesh. Upon analysis of existing researches, it is found very few researches focused on correlating climate change and right to food and right to shelter. This study shows how the consequences of climate change affects food production and abode of people of Bangladesh. This study recommends that tree plantation, floating agricultural practice, co-operation with international organization, developing environment friendly institutions, increased use of renewable energy, proper management of wetlands and forests, shelter for climate induced migrated people, encouraging research and public awareness are key issues to be followed for combating climate change and protecting basic human right to food and shelter.

Keywords: achievements, agriculture and forestry, fisheries and livestock, renewable energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: C. Akhras

Abstract:

Change is the life blood of business. Dynamic factors inspire change yet may act as barriers, influencing the company’s position in the market and challenging its organizational mission and culture. Today, the business context has globalized with business enterprises in the North and South joint in mergers and the East forges a strategic alliance with the West. Moreover, given that very little remains stable in certain industries, national business goals in the millennial marketplaces might be rapid, accelerated, and differentiated growth while distinctive competitive advantage might mark new qualitative excellence in others. In a new age culture marked by change, organizations, leaders, and followers are impacted; indigenous business leaders seem to have a very important role to play in change management. This case study was carried out on 178 business employees employed in local industry to evaluate perceptions of indigenous business leadership, workplace assessment, and organizational change management in the Middle East and North Africa. Three research questions were posed: (1) In your work context, do you think business leaders are essentially changing agents? (2) In your work context, is workplace change more effective in business leaders perceived as a hierarchical change agent rather than those perceived as an empowering change agent? (3) In your work context, is workplace change more efficient in business leaders perceived as a hierarchical change agent rather than those perceived as an empowering change agent? The results of the study and its limitations imposed by time and space indicate that more comprehensive research is required in this area.

Keywords: catalyst, change management, business enterprise, workplace assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Neelam Kadyan

Abstract:

Global environmental change is happening at an alarming rate in the present world. Floods, Tsunamis’, Avalanches, Change in Weather patterns, Rise in sea temperature, Landslides, are only few evidences of this change. To regulate such alarming growth of global change in environment certain regulatory system or mechanism is required. Nuisance,negligence,absolute liability,strict liability and trespass are some of the effective common law principles which are helpful in environmental problems. What we need today is sufficient law and adequate machinery to enforce the legal standards. Without law environmental standards cannot be enforced and once again there is need to adopt the common law approach in solving the problem of environmental change as through this approach the affected person can get compensation and as the same time it puts check on wrongdoer.

Keywords: global environmental problems, nuisance, negligence, trespass, strict liability, absolute liability

Procedia PDF Downloads 549