Search results for: flood hazard zone

Authors: Onyebuchi Mogbo, Abdulsalam Mohammed, Salsabila Wali

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This research discusses the design and modeling of an amphibious building. The amphibious building is a house with the function of floating during a flood event. Over the years, houses have been built to resist flood events some of which have failed. The floating house is designed to work with nature and not against it. In the event of a flood, the house will rise with the increasing water level and protect the house from sinking. For the design and modeling of this house an estimated cost of N250, 000, approximately $700, will be needed. It is expected that the house will rise when lightweight materials are incorporated in the design, and the concrete dock (in form of a hollow box) carrying the entire house in its hollow space is well designed. When there is flooding the water will fill up the concrete dock, and the house will rise upwards with vertical guides preventing it from moving side to side or out of its boundary. Architectural and Structural designs will be used in this project.

Keywords: amphibious building, flood, housing, design and modelling

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Authors: Fereshteh Pourmohammad, Mehdi Zare

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The city of Karaj, having a population of 2.2 millions (est. 2022) is located in the South West of Alborz Mountain Belt in Northern Iran. The region is known to be a highly active seismic zone. This study is focused on the geological and seismological analyses within a radius of 200 km from the center of Karaj. There are identified five seismic zones and seven linear seismic sources. The maximum magnitude was calculated for the seismic zones. Scine tghe seismicity catalog is incomplete, we have used a parametric-historic algorithm and the Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) method was used to calculate seismicity parameters, and the return periods and the probability frequency of recurrence of the earthquake magnitude in each zone obtained for 475-years return period. According to the calculations, the highest and lowest earthquake magnitudes of 7.6 and 6.2 were respectively obtained in Zones 1 and 4. This result is a new and extremely important in view point of earthquake risk in a densely population city. The maximum strong horizontal ground motion for the 475-years return period 0.42g and for 2475-year return period 0.70g also the maximum strong vertical ground motion for 475-years return period 0.25g and 2475-years return period 0.44g was calculated using attenuation relationships. These acceleration levels are new, and are obtained to be about 25% higher than presented values in the Iranian building code.

Keywords: seismic zones, ground motion, return period, hazard analysis

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Authors: Muhammad Karim Ahmadzai

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Floods are natural phenomena and are an integral part of the water cycle. The majority of them are the result of climatic conditions, but are also affected by the geology and geomorphology of the area, topography and hydrology, the water permeability of the soil and the vegetation cover, as well as by all kinds of human activities and structures. However, from the moment that human lives are at risk and significant economic impact is recorded, this natural phenomenon becomes a natural disaster. Flood management is now a key issue at regional and local levels around the world, affecting human lives and activities. The majority of floods are unlikely to be fully predicted, but it is feasible to reduce their risks through appropriate management plans and constructions. The aim of this Case Study is to identify, and map areas of flood risk in the Khinch District of Panjshir Province, Afghanistan specifically in the area of Peshghore, causing numerous damages. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the contribution of remote sensing technology and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in assessing the susceptibility of this region to flood events. Panjsher is facing Seasonal floods and human interventions on streams caused floods. The beds of which have been trampled to build houses and hotels or have been converted into roads, are causing flooding after every heavy rainfall. The streams crossing settlements and areas with high touristic development have been intensively modified by humans, as the pressure for real estate development land is growing. In particular, several areas in Khinch are facing a high risk of extensive flood occurrence. This study concentrates on the construction of a flood susceptibility map, of the study area, by combining vulnerability elements, using the Analytical Hierarchy Process/ AHP. The Analytic Hierarchy Process, normally called AHP, is a powerful yet simple method for making decisions. It is commonly used for project prioritization and selection. AHP lets you capture your strategic goals as a set of weighted criteria that you then use to score projects. This method is used to provide weights for each criterion which Contributes to the Flood Event. After processing of a digital elevation model (DEM), important secondary data were extracted, such as the slope map, the flow direction and the flow accumulation. Together with additional thematic information (Landuse and Landcover, topographic wetness index, precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Elevation, River Density, Distance from River, Distance to Road, Slope), these led to the final Flood Risk Map. Finally, according to this map, the Priority Protection Areas and Villages and the structural and nonstructural measures were demonstrated to Minimize the Impacts of Floods on residential and Agricultural areas.

Keywords: flood hazard, flood risk map, flood mitigation measures, AHP analysis

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Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

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The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina

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Authors: Madhuri, H. R. Tewari, P. K. Bhowmick

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The study attempts to find out the role of the community and the government support, flood experience, flood education, and education of the male-headed households in their livelihood resilience. The study is based on a randomly drawn sample of 472 households from the river basins of Ganga and Kosi in the district of Bhagalpur, Bihar. Structural equation modeling (SEM) and analysis of variance (ANOVA) methods are used to analyze the data. The findings of the study reveal that the role(s) of the community support though is found to be more significant in comparison to the government supports for its stand by position in rescue and livelihood resilience of the affected households whereas the government support arrives late and in far less quantity than what is required. However, the government's support is equally vital due its control over resources, which essentially needed in rescue and rehabilitation of the affected households. The study unravels the strategic value of households' indigenous knowledge and their flood experience in livelihood resilience.

Keywords: flood education, flood experience, livelihood resilience, community support, government support

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Authors: Juan Bojórquez, Henry E. Reyes, Edén Bojórquez, Alfredo Reyes-Salazar

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This paper addressed the use of Artificial Intelligence to obtain the structural reliability of reinforced concrete buildings. For this purpose, artificial neuronal networks (ANN) are developed to predict seismic demand hazard curves. In order to have enough input-output data to train the ANN, a set of reinforced concrete buildings (low, mid, and high rise) are designed, then a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is made to obtain the seismic demand hazard curves. The results are then used as input-output data to train the ANN in a feedforward backpropagation model. The predicted values of the seismic demand hazard curves found by the ANN are then compared. Finally, it is concluded that the computer time analysis is significantly lower and the predictions obtained from the ANN were accurate in comparison to the values obtained from the conventional methods.

Keywords: structural reliability, seismic design, machine learning, artificial neural network, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, seismic demand hazard curves

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Authors: G. P. Gunasinghe, Lilani Ruhunage, N. P. Ratnayake, G. V. I. Samaradivakara, H. M. R. Premasiri, A. S. Ratnayake, Nimila Dushantha, W. A. P. Weerakoon, K. B. A. Silva

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Sri Lanka is affected by different natural disasters such as tsunami, landslides, lightning, and riverine flood. Out of them, riverine floods act as a major disaster in the country. Different strategies are applied to control the impacts of flood hazards, and the expansion of river mouth is considered as one of the main activities for flood mitigation and disaster reduction. However, due to this expansion process, natural sand barriers including sand spits, barrier islands, and tidal planes are destroyed or subjected to change. This, in turn, can change the hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics of the area leading to other damages to the natural coastal features. The removal of a considerable portion of naturally formed sand barrier at Kaluganga River outlet (Calido Beach), Sri Lanka to control flooding event at Kaluthara urban area on May 2017, has become a serious issue in the area causing complete collapse of river mouth barrier spit bar system leading to rapid coastal erosion Kaluganga river outlet area and saltwater intrusion into the Kaluganga River. The present investigation is focused on assessing effects due to the removal of a considerable portion of naturally formed sand barrier at Kaluganga river mouth. For this study, the beach profiles, the bathymetric surveys, and Google Earth historical satellite images, before and after the flood event were collected and analyzed. Furthermore, a beach boundary survey was also carried out in October 2018 to support the satellite image data. The results of Google Earth satellite images and beach boundary survey data analyzed show a chronological breakdown of the sand barrier at the river outlet. The comparisons of pre and post-disaster bathymetric maps and beach profiles analysis revealed a noticeable deepening of the sea bed at the nearshore zone as well. Such deepening in the nearshore zone can cause the sea waves to break very near to the coastline. This might also lead to generate new diffraction patterns resulting in differential coastal accretion and erosion scenarios. Unless immediate mitigatory measures were not taken, the impacts may cause severe problems to the sensitive Kaluganag river mouth system.

Keywords: bathymetry, beach profiles, coastal features, river outlet, sand barrier, Sri Lanka

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Authors: Ahmad Hamidi Mohamed, Jamaluddin Othman, Mashitah Suid, Mohd Zaim Mohd Shukri

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Floods are considered an annual natural disaster in Kelantan. However, the record-setting flood of 2014 was a 'tsunami-like disaster'. A study has been conducted with the objectives to assess the economic impact of the flood to the resident of Dabong area in Kelantan Darul Naim, Malaysia. This area was selected due to the severity during the flood. The impacts of flood on local people were done by conducting structured interviews with the use of questionnaires. The questionnaire was intended to acquire information on losses faced by Dabong residence. Questionnaires covered various areas of inconveniences suffered with respect to health effects, including illnesses suffered, their intensities, duration and their associated costs. Loss of productivity and quality of life was also assessed. Inquiries were made to Government agencies to obtain relevant statistical data regarding the loss due to the flood tragedy. The data collected by giving formal request to the governmental agencies and formal meetings were done. From the study a staggering amount of losses were calculated. This figure comes from losses of property, Farmers/Agriculture, Traders/Business, Health, Insurance and Governmental losses. Flood brings hardship to the people of Dabong and these losses of home will cause inconveniences to the society. The huge amount of economic loss extracted from this study shows that federal and state government of Kelantan need to find out the cause of the major flood in 2014. Fast and effective measures have to be planned and implemented in flood prone area to prevent same tragedy happens in the future.

Keywords: economic impact, flood tragedy, Malaysia, property losses

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Authors: Stepan Kuchar, Martin Golasowski, Radim Vavrik, Michal Podhoranyi, Boris Sir, Jan Martinovic

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The main goal of this article is to describe the online flood monitoring and prediction system Floreon+ primarily developed for the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic and the basic process it uses for running automatic rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic simulations along with their calibration and uncertainty modeling. It takes a long time to execute such process sequentially, which is not acceptable in the online scenario, so the use of high-performance computing environment is proposed for all parts of the process to shorten their duration. Finally, a case study on the Ostravice river catchment is presented that shows actual durations and their gain from the parallel implementation.

Keywords: flood prediction process, high performance computing, online flood prediction system, parallelization

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Authors: Lara Leite Barbosa, Marco Imperadori

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This article aims to define strategies for applying innovative technology so that housing in regions subject to floods can be more resilient to disasters. Based on case studies of seven amphibious and floating projects, it proposes design guidelines to implement this practice. Its originality consists of transposing a technology developed for fluctuating buildings for housing types in regions affected by flood disasters. The proposal could be replicated in other contexts, endowing vulnerable households with the ability to resist rising water levels after a flood. The results of this study are design guidelines to adapt for houses in areas subject to flooding, contributing to the mitigation of this disaster.

Keywords: amphibious housing, disaster resilience, floating architecture, flood mitigation, post-disaster reconstruction

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Authors: Lingzhi Li, Jiankun Zhang, Tiantian Gu

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Hazard management that can prevent fatal accidents and property losses is a fundamental process during the buildings’ construction stage. However, due to lack of safety supervision resources and operational pressures, the conduction of hazard management is poor and ineffective in China. In order to improve the quality of construction safety management, it is critical to explore the use of information technologies to ensure that the process of hazard management is efficient and effective. After exploring the existing problems of construction hazard management in China, this paper develops the griddization management model for construction hazard management. First, following the knowledge grid infrastructure, the griddization computing infrastructure for construction hazards management is designed which includes five layers: resource entity layer, information management layer, task management layer, knowledge transformation layer and application layer. This infrastructure will be as the technical support for realizing grid management. Second, this study divides the construction hazards into grids through city level, district level and construction site level according to grid principles. Last, a griddization management process including hazard identification, assessment and control is developed. Meanwhile, all stakeholders of construction safety management, such as owners, contractors, supervision organizations and government departments, should take the corresponding responsibilities in this process. Finally, a case study based on actual construction hazard identification, assessment and control is used to validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed griddization management model. The advantage of this designed model is to realize information sharing and cooperative management between various safety management departments.

Keywords: construction hazard, griddization computing, grid management, process

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Authors: Fikre Belay Tekulu

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The Adigrat town lies in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. This region is mountainous and experiences a semiarid type of climate. Most of the rainfall occurs in four months of the year, which are June to September. During this season, flood is a common natural disaster, especially in urban areas. In this paper, an attempt is made to identify flood-prone areas in Adigrat town using Boolean logic with GIS and remote sensing techniques. Three parameters were incorporated as land use type, elevation, and slope. Boolean logic was used as land use equal to buildup land, elevation less than 2430 m, and slope less than 5 degrees. As a result, 0.575 km² was identified severely affected by floods during the rainy season.

Keywords: flood, GIS, hydrology, Adigrat

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Authors: Muhammad Naveed

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In this paper, flood issues in Gujranwala and Rawalpindi divisions are discussed as a primary importance as these zones are affected continuously from flooding in recent years, provincial variability of the issue, introduce status of the continuous administration measures, their adequacy and future needs in flood administration are secured. Flood issues in these zones are exhibited by Chenab River Basin, Jhelum Rivers Basin. Some unique problems, related to floods in these divisions is lack of major dams on Chenab and Jhelum rivers and also mismanagement of rivers and canal water like dam break stream, and water signing in Tal zones, are additionally mentioned. There are major Nalaas in these regions like Nalaa Lai of Rawalpindi and Nalaa Daik, Nalaa Palkhu, Nalaa Aik of Gujranwala are major cause of floods in these regions other than rivers. Proper management of these Nalaas and moving of nearby population well in time could reduce impacts from flood in these regions. Progress of different flood administration measures, both auxiliary and non-basic, are discussed. Likewise, future needs to accomplish proficient and fruitful flood management measures in Pakistan are additionally brought up. In this paper, we describe different hard and soft engineering techniques to overcome flood situations in these zones as these zones are more vulnerable due to lack of management in canal and river water. Effective management and use of hard and soft techniques are need of time in coming future for controlling greater flooding in flood risk zones to overcome or minimize people’s death as well as agricultural and financial resources as flood and other natural disasters are a major drawback in the economic prosperity of the country.

Keywords: flood management, rivers, major dams, agricultural and financial loss, future management and control

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Authors: Muhammad Tarmidzi, Reza M. G. Gani, Andri Luthfi

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The purpose of this study is to identify rock zone containing hydrocarbons with calculating rock property includes volume shale, total porosity, effective porosity and water saturation. Identification method rock property based on GR log, resistivity log, neutron log and density rock. Zoning is based on sequence stratigraphic markers that are sequence boundary (SB), transgressive surface (TS) and flooding surface (FS) which correlating ten well log in blok “M”. The results of sequence stratigraphic correlation consist of eight zone that are two LST zone, three TST zone and three HST zone. The result of rock property calculation in each zone is showing two LST zone containing hydrocarbons. LST-1 zone has average volume shale (Vsh) 25%, average total porosity (PHIT) 14%, average effective porosity (PHIE) 11% and average water saturation 0,83. LST-2 zone has average volume shale (Vsh) 19%, average total porosity (PHIT) 21%, average effective porosity (PHIE) 17% and average water saturation 0,82.

Keywords: hydrocarbons zone, petrophysic, rock property, sequence stratigraphic

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Authors: Mariza Kaskara, Stella Girtsou, Maria Prodromou, Alexia Tsouni, Christodoulos Mettas, Stavroula Alatza, Kyriaki Fotiou, Marios Tzouvaras, Charalampos Kontoes, Diofantos Hadjimitsis

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Natural hazard assessment and monitoring are crucial components in managing the risks associated with fires, floods, and geohazards, particularly in regions prone to these natural disasters, such as Greece and Cyprus. Recent advancements in technology led to the development of state-of-the-art systems for assessing and monitoring these hazards. These technologies, developed by the BEYOND Center of Excellence of the National Observatory of Athens, have been successfully applied in Greece and are now set to be transferred to Cyprus. The implementation of these advanced technologies in Greece has significantly improved the country's ability to respond to these natural hazards. Enhancing disaster resilience is crucial as it significantly improves our ability to predict, prepare for, and mitigate the impacts of natural disasters, ultimately saving lives and reducing economic losses. For wildfire risk assessment, a scalar wildfire occurrence risk index has been created based on the predictions of machine learning models. Our objective was to train an ML model that learns to derive a fire susceptibility score when given as input a vector of features assigned to certain spatiotemporal coordinates. Predicting fire danger is crucial for the sustainable management of forest fires as it provides essential information for designing effective prevention measures and facilitating response planning for potential fire incidents. For flood risk assessment, a multi-faceted approach has been employed, including the application of remote sensing techniques, the collection and processing of data from population, buildings, technical studies and field visits, as well as hydrological and hydraulic simulations. All input data are used to create precise flood hazard maps according to various flooding scenarios, detailed flood vulnerability and flood exposure maps, which finally produce the flood risk map. Critical points are identified, and mitigation measures are proposed for the worst-case scenario, namely, refuge areas are defined, and escape routes are designed. Flood risk maps can assist in raising awareness and save lives. For geohazards monitoring (e.g., landslides, subsidence), synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and optical satellite imagery have been combined with geomorphological and meteorological data and other landslide/ground deformation contributing factors. To monitor critical infrastructures, including dams, advanced InSAR (Interferometric SAR) methodologies are used for identifying surface movements through time. Monitoring these hazards provides valuable information for understanding processes and could lead to early warning systems to protect people and infrastructure. The success of these systems in Greece has paved the way for their transfer to Cyprus to enhance Cyprus's capabilities in natural hazard assessment and monitoring. This transfer is being made through knowledge transfer activities, fostering continuous collaboration between Greek and Cypriot experts. Furthermore, small demonstration actions are implemented to showcase the effectiveness of these technologies in real-world scenarios. In conclusion, the transfer of advanced natural hazard assessment technologies from Greece to Cyprus represents a significant step forward in enhancing the entire region's resilience to disasters. The EXCELSIOR project, funding this opportunity, is committed to empowering Cyprus with the tools and expertise needed to effectively manage and mitigate the risks associated with these natural hazards. Acknowledgment: Authors acknowledge the 'EXCELSIOR': ERATOSTHENES: Excellence Research Centre for Earth Surveillance and Space-Based Monitoring of the Environment H2020 Widespread Teaming project.

Keywords: earth observation, monitoring, natural hazards, remote sensing

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Urban flooding is a common occurrence throughout Asia. Almost every city is vulnerable to urban floods in some fashion, and city people are particularly vulnerable. Pluvial and fluvial flooding are the most prominent causes of urban flooding in the Gomti Nagar region of Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India. The pluvial flooding is regarded to be less damaging because it is caused by heavy rainfall, Seasonal rainfall fluctuations, water flows off concrete infrastructures, blockages of the drainage system, and insufficient drainage capacity or low infiltration capacity. However, this study considers pluvial flooding in Lucknow to be a significant source of cumulative damage over time, and the risks of such events are increasing as a result of changes in ageing infrastructure, hazard exposure, rapid urbanization, massive water logging and global warming. As a result, urban flooding has emerged as a critical field of study. The popularity of analytical approaches to project the spatial extent of flood dangers has skyrocketed. To address future urban flood resilience, more effort is needed to enhance both hydrodynamic models and analytical tools to simulate risks under present and forecast conditions. Proper urban planning with drainage system and ample space for high infiltration capacity are required to reduce urban flooding. A better India with no urban flooding is a pipe dream that can be realized by putting household rooftop rainwater collection systems in every structure. According to the current study, domestic RTRWHs are strongly recommended as an alternative source of water, as well as to prevent surface runoff and urban floods in this region of Lucknow, urban areas of India.

Keywords: rooftop rainwater harvesting, urban flood, pluvial flooding, fluvial flooding

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Authors: Iacopo Carnacina, Mohammad Keshtpoor, Richard Yablonsky

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Non-structural protection measures against flooding are becoming increasingly popular flood risk mitigation strategies. In particular, coastal flood insurance impacts not only private citizens but also insurance and reinsurance companies, who may require it to retain solvency and better understand the risks they face from a catastrophic coastal flood event. In this context, a framework is presented here to assess the risk for coastal flooding across the UK. The area has a long history of catastrophic flood events, including the Great Flood of 1953 and the 2013 Cyclone Xaver storm, both of which led to significant loss of life and property. The current framework will leverage a technology based on a hydrodynamic model (Delft3D Flexible Mesh). This flexible mesh technology, coupled with a calibration technique, allows for better utilisation of computational resources, leading to higher resolution and more detailed results. The generation of a stochastic set of extra tropical cyclone (ETC) events supports the evaluation of the financial losses for the whole area, also accounting for correlations between different locations in different scenarios. Finally, the solution shows a detailed analysis for the Thames River, leveraging the information available on flood barriers and levees. Two realistic disaster scenarios for the Greater London area are simulated: In the first scenario, the storm surge intensity is not high enough to fail London’s flood defences, but in the second scenario, London’s flood defences fail, highlighting the potential losses from a catastrophic coastal flood event.

Keywords: storm surge, stochastic model, levee failure, Thames River

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Authors: Devanjan Bhattacharya, Jitka Komarkova

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The research describes the implementation of a novel and stand-alone system for dynamic hazard warning. The system uses all existing infrastructure already in place like mobile networks, a laptop/PC and the small installation software. The geospatial dataset are the maps of a region which are again frugal. Hence there is no need to invest and it reaches everyone with a mobile. A novel architecture of hazard assessment and warning introduced where major technologies in ICT interfaced to give a unique WebGIS based dynamic real time geohazard warning communication system. A never before architecture introduced for integrating WebGIS with telecommunication technology. Existing technologies interfaced in a novel architectural design to address a neglected domain in a way never done before–through dynamically updatable WebGIS based warning communication. The work publishes new architecture and novelty in addressing hazard warning techniques in sustainable way and user friendly manner. Coupling of hazard zonation and hazard warning procedures into a single system has been shown. Generalized architecture for deciphering a range of geo-hazards has been developed. Hence the developmental work presented here can be summarized as the development of internet-SMS based automated geo-hazard warning communication system; integrating a warning communication system with a hazard evaluation system; interfacing different open-source technologies towards design and development of a warning system; modularization of different technologies towards development of a warning communication system; automated data creation, transformation and dissemination over different interfaces. The architecture of the developed warning system has been functionally automated as well as generalized enough that can be used for any hazard and setup requirement has been kept to a minimum.

Keywords: geospatial, web-based GIS, geohazard, warning system

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Authors: Ayesha S. Rahman, Khaled Haddad, Ataur Rahman

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At-site flood frequency analysis is used to estimate flood quantiles when at-site record length is reasonably long. In Australia, FLIKE software has been introduced for at-site flood frequency analysis. The advantage of FLIKE is that, for a given application, the user can compare a number of most commonly adopted probability distributions and parameter estimation methods relatively quickly using a windows interface. The new version of FLIKE has been incorporated with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test which can identify multiple numbers of potentially influential low flows. This paper presents a case study considering six catchments in eastern Australia which compares two outlier identification tests (original Grubbs and Beck test and multiple Grubbs and Beck test) and two commonly applied probability distributions (Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson type 3 (LP3)) using FLIKE software. It has been found that the multiple Grubbs and Beck test when used with LP3 distribution provides more accurate flood quantile estimates than when LP3 distribution is used with the original Grubbs and Beck test. Between these two methods, the differences in flood quantile estimates have been found to be up to 61% for the six study catchments. It has also been found that GEV distribution (with L moments) and LP3 distribution with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test provide quite similar results in most of the cases; however, a difference up to 38% has been noted for flood quantiles for annual exceedance probability (AEP) of 1 in 100 for one catchment. These findings need to be confirmed with a greater number of stations across other Australian states.

Keywords: floods, FLIKE, probability distributions, flood frequency, outlier

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Authors: Mohammad Mokhtari, Mehdi Masoodi, Parvaneh Faridi

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history of tsunami generating earthquakes along the Makran Subduction Zone provides evidence of the potential tsunami hazard for the whole coastal area. In comparison with other subduction zone in the world, the Makran region of southern Pakistan and southeastern Iran remains low seismicity. Also, it is one of the least studied area in the northwest of the Indian Ocean regarding tsunami studies. We present a review of studies dealing with the historical /and ongoing palaeotsunamis supported by IGCP of UNESCO in the Makran Subduction Zone. The historical tsunami presented here includes about nine tsunamis in the Makran Subduction Zone, of which over 7 tsunamis occur in the eastern Makran. Tsunami is not as common in the western Makran as in the eastern Makran, where a database of historical events exists. The historically well-documented event is related to the 1945 earthquake with a magnitude of 8.1moment magnitude and tsunami in the western and eastern Makran. There are no details as to whether a tsunami was generated by a seismic event before 1945 off western Makran. But several potentially large tsunamigenic events in the MSZ before 1945 occurred in 325 B.C., 1008, 1483, 1524, 1765, 1851, 1864, and 1897. Here we will present new findings from a historical point of view, immediately, we would like to emphasize that the area needs to be considered with higher research investigation. As mentioned above, a palaeotsunami (geological evidence) is now being planned, and here we will present the first phase result. From a risk point of view, the study shows as preliminary achievement within 20 minutes the wave reaches to Iranian as well Pakistan and Oman coastal zone with very much destructive tsunami waves capable of inundating destructive effect. It is important to note that all the coastal areas of all states surrounding the MSZ are being developed very rapidly, so any event would have a devastating effect on this region. Although several papers published about modelling, seismology, tsunami deposits in the last decades; as Makran is a forgotten subduction zone, more data such as the main crustal structure, fault location, and its related parameter are required.

Keywords: historical tsunami, Indian ocean, makran subduction zone, palaeotsunami

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Authors: Spandan Sahu, Amiya Kumar Pati, Kishanjit Kumar Khatua

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River is our main source of water which is a form of open channel flow and the flow in open channel provides with many complex phenomenon of sciences that needs to be tackled such as the critical flow conditions, boundary shear stress and depth averaged velocity. During floods, part of a river is carried by the simple main channel and rest is carried by flood plains. For such compound asymmetric channels, the flow structure becomes complicated due to momentum exchange between main channel and adjoining flood plains. Distribution of boundary shear in subsections provides us with the concept of momentum transfer between the interface of main channel and the flood plains. Experimentally, to get better data with accurate results are very complex because of the complexity of the problem. Hence, CES software has been used to tackle the complex processes to determine the shear stresses at different sections of an open channel having asymmetric flood plains on both sides of the main channel and the results is compared with the symmetric flood plains for various geometrical shapes and flow conditions. Error analysis is also performed to know the degree of accuracy of the model implemented.

Keywords: depth average velocity, non prismatic compound channel, relative flow depth, velocity distribution

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Authors: M. Irannezhad, E. H. N. Gashti, U. Moback, B. Kløve

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Climate change because of increases in concentration level of greenhouse gases emissions to the atmosphere will result in mean sea level rise about +1 m by 2100. To prevent coastal floods resulted from the sea level rising, different flood control structures have been built, e.g. the Thames barrier on the Thames River in London (UK), with acceptable protection levels at least so far. Gothenburg located on the southwest coast of Sweden, with the River Göta älv running through it, is one of vulnerable cities to the accelerated rises in mean sea level. Developing a water level model by MATLAB, we evaluated using a sea barrage in the Göta älv River as the flood control structure for protecting the Gothenburg city during this century. Considering three operational scenarios for two barriers in upstream and downstream, the highest sea level was estimated to + 2.95 m above the current mean sea level by 2100. To verify flood protection against such high sea levels, both barriers have to be closed. To prevent high water level in the River Göta älv reservoir, the barriers would be open when the sea level is low. The suggested flood control structures would successfully protect the city from flooding events during this century.

Keywords: climate change, flood control structures, gothenburg, sea level rising, water level mode

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Authors: Masood Beheshtirad

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Identification of regions having potential for landslide occurrence is one of the basic measures in natural resources management. Different landslide hazard mapping models are proposed based on the environmental condition and goals. In this research landslide hazard map using multiple regression model were provided and applicability of this model is investigated in Baghdasht watershed. Dependent variable is landslide inventory map and independent variables consist of information layers as Geology, slope, aspect, distance from river, distance from road, fault and land use. For doing this, existing landslides have been identified and an inventory map made. The landslide hazard map is based on the multiple regression provided. The level of similarity potential hazard classes and figures of this model were compared with the landslide inventory map in the SPSS environments. Results of research showed that there is a significant correlation between the potential hazard classes and figures with area of the landslides. The multiple regression model is suitable for application in the Baghdasht Watershed.

Keywords: landslide, mapping, multiple model, regression

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Authors: Jill Stephenson, Marie Vaganay, Robert Cameron, Caoimhe McGurk, Neil Hewitt

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Purpose: The key aim of the research was to identify the secondary stressors experienced by businesses affected by single or repeated flooding and to determine to what extent businesses were affected by these stressors, along with any resulting impact on health. Additionally, the research aimed to establish the likelihood of businesses being re-exposed to the secondary stressors through assessing awareness of flood risk, implementation of property protection measures and level of community resilience. Design/methodology/approach: The chosen research method involved the distribution of a questionnaire survey to businesses affected by either single or repeated flood events. The questionnaire included the Impact of Event Scale (a 15-item self-report measure which assesses subjective distress caused by traumatic events). Findings: 55 completed questionnaires were returned by flood impacted businesses. 89% of the businesses had sustained internal flooding while 11% had experienced external flooding. The results established that the key secondary stressors experienced by businesses, in order of priority, were: flood damage, fear of reoccurring flooding, prevention of access to the premise/closure, loss of income, repair works, length of closure and insurance issues. There was a lack of preparedness for potential future floods and consequent vulnerability to the emergence of secondary stressors among flood affected businesses, as flood resistance or flood resilience measures had only been implemented by 11% and 13% respectively. In relation to the psychological repercussions, the Impact of Event scores suggested that potential prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was noted among 8 out of 55 respondents (l5%). Originality/value: The results improve understanding of the enduring repercussions of flood events on businesses, indicating that not only residents may be susceptible to the detrimental health impacts of flood events and single flood events may be just as likely as reoccurring flooding to contribute to ongoing stress. Lack of financial resources is a possible explanation for the lack of implementation of property protection measures among businesses, despite 49% experiencing flooding on multiple occasions. Therefore it is recommended that policymakers should consider potential sources of financial support or grants towards flood defences for flood impacted businesses. Any form of assistance should be made available to businesses at the earliest opportunity as there was no significant association between the time of the last flood event and the likelihood of experiencing PTSD symptoms.

Keywords: flood event, flood resilience, flood resistance, PTSD, secondary stressors

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Authors: A. Bere, H. G. Sithuba, K. Kyei, C. Sigauke

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We employ a discrete logit survival model to investigate the risk factors for early alcohol intake among students at two tertiary institutions in Thohoyandou, South Africa. Data were collected from a sample of 744 students using a self-administered questionnaire. Significant covariates were arrived at through a regularization algorithm implemented using the glmmLasso package. The tuning parameter was determined using a five-fold cross-validation algorithm. The baseline hazard was modelled as a smooth function of time through the use of spline functions. The results show that the hazard of initial alcohol intake peaks at the age of about 16 years and that at any given time, being of a male gender, prior use of other drugs, having drinking peers, having experienced negative life events and physical abuse are associated with a higher risk of alcohol intake debut.

Keywords: cross-validation, discrete hazard model, LASSO, smooth baseline hazard

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Authors: Olivia R. Rendon

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More than half of the world population lives in cities, in the UK, for example, 82% of the population was urban by 2013. Cities concentrate valuable and numerous infrastructure and sectors of the national economies. Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change which will lead to higher damage costs in the future. There is thus a need to develop and invest in adaptation measures for cities to reduce the impact of flooding and other extreme weather events. Recent flood episodes present a significant and growing challenge to the UK and the estimated cost of urban flood damage is 270 million a year for England and Wales. This study aims to carry out cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of a nature-based approach for flood risk management in cities, focusing on the city of Leeds and the wider Aire catchment as a case study. Leeds was chosen as a case study due to its being one of the most flood vulnerable cities in the UK. In Leeds, over 4,500 properties are currently vulnerable to flooding and approximately £450 million of direct damage is estimated for a potential major flood from the River Aire. Leeds is also the second largest Metropolitan District in England with a projected population of 770,000 for 2014. So far the city council has mainly focused its flood risk management efforts on hard infrastructure solutions for the city centre. However, the wider Leeds district is at significant flood risk which could benefit from greener adaptation measures. This study presents estimates of a nature-based adaptation approach for flood risk management in Leeds. This land use management estimate is based on generating costings utilising primary and secondary data. This research contributes findings on the costs of different adaptation measures to flood risk management in a UK city, including the trade-offs and challenges of utilising nature-based solutions. Results also explore the potential implementation of the adaptation measures in the case study and the challenges of data collection and analysis for adaptation in flood risk management.

Keywords: green infrastructure, ecosystem services, woodland, adaptation, flood risk

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Authors: Nguyen-Thanh Son

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Flood is among the most frequent and costliest natural hazards. The flood disasters especially affect the poor people in rural areas, who are heavily dependent on agriculture and have lower incomes. Cambodia is identified as one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world, ranked 13th out of 181 countries most affected by the impacts of climate change. Flood monitoring is thus a strategic priority at national and regional levels because policymakers need reliable spatial and temporal information on flood-prone areas to form successful monitoring programs to reduce possible impacts on the country’s economy and people’s likelihood. This study aims to develop methods for flood mapping and assessment from MODIS data in Cambodia. We processed the data for the period from 2000 to 2017, following three main steps: (1) data pre-processing to construct smooth time-series vegetation and water surface indices, (2) delineation of flood-prone areas, and (3) accuracy assessment. The results of flood mapping were verified with the ground reference data, indicating the overall accuracy of 88.7% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.77, respectively. These results were reaffirmed by close agreement between the flood-mapping area and ground reference data, with the correlation coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.94. The seasonally flooded areas observed for 2010, 2015, and 2016 were remarkably smaller than other years, mainly attributed to the El Niño weather phenomenon exacerbated by impacts of climate change. Eventually, although several sources potentially lowered the mapping accuracy of flood-prone areas, including image cloud contamination, mixed-pixel issues, and low-resolution bias between the mapping results and ground reference data, our methods indicated the satisfactory results for delineating spatiotemporal evolutions of floods. The results in the form of quantitative information on spatiotemporal flood distributions could be beneficial to policymakers in evaluating their management strategies for mitigating the negative effects of floods on agriculture and people’s likelihood in the country.

Keywords: MODIS, flood, mapping, Cambodia

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Authors: Lilla Szabó Hangya, Szilvia Jambori

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The comfort zone is less studied area in the field of psychology. One of the most important definitions is that comfort zone is a psychological state in which things feel familiar to a person with low level of anxiety and stress. But the validity of comfort zone does not confirm till now. The aim of our pilot research is to test which psychological factors could determine how young adults behave during their decision process to stay in one’s comfort zone or to leave it. Every person has a number of comfort zones, so we are not able to measure it directly, only those personality traits which predict if someone leaves his comfort zone easier or harder. In our study at first we wanted to clarify the meaning of comfort zone. 110 young adults (male: 37, female: 73; ages from 18 to 70, average age: 26,6) took part in the study. Beside their demographic datas we asked them what does the comfort zone mean for them. The results showed that the meaning of the comfort zone can be grouped in five dimensions: comfort (49,6 %), leaving it-change (8,1%), ambivalent feelings (10,6%), related to other people (10,6%), pursuit of self-realization (16,8%). Our results demonstrated age related characteristics. For young people at the age of 19 the comfort zone is related to other people, because during adolescents peer relationships become more important. Subjects at the age 20-30 answered that the comfort zone means comfort and stability for them. Their life becomes stable for a while, they are studying or working. But at the age of 25, when they finish university, most of them answered comfort zone means a changing process for them. On the other hand for subjects at the age of 27 the means of the comfort zone is pursuit of self-realization. After that period at the age of 31 when they have families and stable job the stability will also dominant. We saw that the comfort zone has much more meaning besides a pleasant psychological trait. Further we would like to determine which psychological factors relate to comfort zone, and what kind of personality traits could predict leaving or staying in one’s comfort zone. We want to observe the relationship between comfort zone and subjective well-being, life satisfaction self-efficacy or self-esteem.

Keywords: comfort zone, development, personality trait, young adults

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Authors: Navneet Kalia, Lalit Mohan Verma, Vinay Guleria

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Introduction: Design Flood studies are essential for effective planning and functioning of water resource projects. Design flood estimation for Sunni Dam Hydro Electric Project located in State of Himachal Pradesh, India, on the river Satluj, was a big challenge in view of the river flowing in the Himalayan region from Tibet to India, having a large catchment area of varying topography, climate, and vegetation. No Discharge data was available for the part of the river in Tibet, whereas, for India, it was available only at Khab, Rampur, and Luhri. The estimation of Design Flood using standard methods was not possible. This challenge was met using two different approaches for upper (snow-fed) and lower (rainfed) catchment using Flood Frequency Approach and Hydro-metrological approach. i) For catchment up to Khab Gauging site (Sub-Catchment, C1), Flood Frequency approach was used. Around 90% of the catchment area (46300 sqkm) up to Khab is snow-fed which lies above 4200m. In view of the predominant area being snow-fed area, 1 in 10000 years return period flood estimated using Flood Frequency analysis at Khab was considered as Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). The flood peaks were taken from daily observed discharges at Khab, which were increased by 10% to make them instantaneous. Design Flood of 4184 cumec thus obtained was considered as PMF at Khab. ii) For catchment between Khab and Sunni Dam (Sub-Catchment, C2), Hydro-metrological approach was used. This method is based upon the catchment response to the rainfall pattern observed (Probable Maximum Precipitation - PMP) in a particular catchment area. The design flood computation mainly involves the estimation of a design storm hyetograph and derivation of the catchment response function. A unit hydrograph is assumed to represent the response of the entire catchment area to a unit rainfall. The main advantage of the hydro-metrological approach is that it gives a complete flood hydrograph which allows us to make a realistic determination of its moderation effect while passing through a reservoir or a river reach. These studies were carried out to derive PMF for the catchment area between Khab and Sunni Dam site using a 1-day and 2-day PMP values of 232 and 416 cm respectively. The PMF so obtained was 12920.60 cumec. Final Result: As the Catchment area up to Sunni Dam has been divided into 2 sub-catchments, the Flood Hydrograph for the Catchment C1 has been routed through the connecting channel reach (River Satluj) using Muskingum method and accordingly, the Design Flood was computed after adding the routed flood ordinates with flood ordinates of catchment C2. The total Design Flood (i.e. 2-Day PMF) with a peak of 15473 cumec was obtained. Conclusion: Even though, several factors are relevant while deciding the method to be used for design flood estimation, data availability and the purpose of study are the most important factors. Since, generally, we cannot wait for the hydrological data of adequate quality and quantity to be available, flood estimation has to be done using whatever data is available. Depending upon the type of data available for a particular catchment, the method to be used is to be selected.

Keywords: design flood, design storm, flood frequency, PMF, PMP, unit hydrograph

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Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

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Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. However, it is difficult to find analytical solution of these complex non-linear equations. Hence, verification of the numerical model should be carried out against field data and numerical predictions. This paper presents the verification of developed finite element model applying for unsteady flow in the open channels. The results of a proposed model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29 km at both sites (15 km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400 km downstream from Sukkur barrage, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for predicting and issuing flood warnings about flood hazardous in advance.

Keywords: finite element method, Preissmann scheme, HEC-RAS, flood forecasting, Indus river

Procedia PDF Downloads 486