Search results for: a causal model

Authors: Antonia Stanojević, Agnes Akkerman

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In contemporary society, economically active people typically spend most of their waking hours doing their job. Having that in mind, this research examines how socialization at the workplace shapes political preferences. Innovatively, it examines, in particular, the possible relationship between employees’ voice suppression by the employer and the formation of their political preferences. Since the employer is perceived as an authority figure, their behavior might induce spillovers to attitudes about political authorities and authoritarian governance. Therefore, a positive effect of suppression of voice by employers on employees' preference for authoritarian governance is expected. Furthermore, this relation is expected to be mediated by two mechanisms: system justification and power distance. Namely, it is expected that suppression of voice would create a power distance organizational climate and increase employees’ acceptance of unequal distribution of power, as well as evoke attempts of oppression rationalization through system justification. The hypotheses will be tested on the data gathered within the first wave of Work and Politics Dataset 2017 (N=6000), which allows for a wide range of demographic and psychological control variables. Although a cross-sectional analysis to be used at this point does not allow for causal inferences, the confirmation of expected relationships would encourage and justify further longitudinal research on the same panel dataset, in order to get a clearer image of the causal relationship between employers' suppression of voice and workers' political preferences.

Keywords: authoritarian values, political preferences, power distance, system justification, voice suppression

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Authors: Carolyn Scott, Rachel Nugent

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The agricultural industry in Ireland and worldwide is one of the most dangerous occupations with respect to occupational health and safety accidents and fatalities. Many accident causation models have been developed in safety research to understand the underlying and contributory factors that lead to the occurrence of an accident. Due to the uniqueness of the agricultural sector, current accident causation theories cannot be applied. This paper presents an accident causation model named the Irish Farm Accident Causation Model (IFACM) which has been specifically tailored to the needs of Irish farms. The IFACM is a theoretical and practical model of accident causation that arranges the causal factors into a graphic representation of originating, shaping, and contributory factors that lead to accidents when unsafe acts and conditions are created that are not rectified by control measures. Causes of farm accidents were assimilated by means of a thorough literature review and were collated to form a graphical representation of the underlying causes of a farm accident. The IFACM was validated retrospectively through case study analysis and peer review. Participants in the case study (n=10) identified causes that led to a farm accident in which they were involved. A root cause analysis was conducted to understand the contributory factors surrounding the farm accident, traced back to the ‘root cause’. Experts relevant to farm safety accident causation in the agricultural industry have peer reviewed the IFACM. The accident causation process is complex. Accident prevention requires a comprehensive understanding of this complex process because to prevent the occurrence of accidents, the causes of accidents must be known. There is little research on the key causes and contributory factors of unsafe behaviours and accidents on Irish farms. The focus of this research is to gain a deep understanding of the causality of accidents on Irish farms. The results suggest that the IFACM framework is helpful for the analysis of the causes of accidents within the agricultural industry in Ireland. The research also suggests that there may be international applicability if further research is carried out. Furthermore, significant learning can be obtained from considering the underlying causes of accidents.

Keywords: farm safety, farm accidents, accident causation, root cause analysis

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Authors: Alice Schittek, Isabelle Roskam, Moira Mikolajczak

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Background: Perfectionistic strivings (PS) and perfectionistic concerns (PC) are associated with an increase in parental burnout (PB), and PB causally increases violence towards the offspring. Objective: To our best knowledge, no study has ever investigated whether perfectionism (PS and PC) predicts violence towards the offspring and whether PB could explain this link. We hypothesized that an increase in PS and PC would lead to an increase in violence via an increase in PB. Method: 228 participants responded to an online survey, with three measurement occasions spaced two months apart. Results: Contrary to expectations, cross-lagged path models revealed that violence towards the offspring prospectively predicts an increase in PS and PC. Mediation models showed that PB is not a significant mediator. The results of all models did not change when controlling for social desirability. Conclusion: The present study shows that violence towards the offspring increases the risk of PS and PC in parents, which highlights the importance of understanding the effect of child maltreatment on the whole family system and not just on children. Results are discussed in light of the feeling of guilt experienced by parents. Considering the insignificant mediation effect, PB research should slowly shift towards more (quasi) causal designs, allowing to identify which significant correlations translate into causal effects. Implications: Clinicians should focus on preventing child maltreatment as well as treating parental perfectionism. Researchers should unravel the effects of child maltreatment on the family system.

Keywords: maltreatment, parental burnout, perfectionistic strivings, perfectionistic concerns, perfectionism, violence

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Authors: M. Lloret-Climent, J. Nescolarde-Selva

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The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model to determine invariant sets, set covering, orbits and, in particular, attractors in the set of tourism variables. Analysis was carried out based on a pre-designed algorithm and applying our interpretation of chaos theory developed in the context of General Systems Theory. This article sets out the causal relationships associated with tourist flows in order to enable the formulation of appropriate strategies. Our results can be applied to numerous cases. For example, in the analysis of tourist flows, these findings can be used to determine whether the behaviour of certain groups affects that of other groups and to analyse tourist behaviour in terms of the most relevant variables. Unlike statistical analyses that merely provide information on current data, our method uses orbit analysis to forecast, if attractors are found, the behaviour of tourist variables in the immediate future.

Keywords: attractor, invariant set, tourist flows, orbits, social responsibility, tourism, tourist variables

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Authors: Kangujam Monika, Kiranbala Devi Thokchom, Soibam Sandhyarani Devi

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Earthquake is a major natural hazard in India. Manipur, located in the North-Eastern Region of India, is one of the most affected location in the region prone to earthquakes since it lies in an area where Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates meet and is in seismic Zone V which is the most severe intensity zone, according to IS Code. Some recent earthquakes recorded in Manipur are M 6.7 epicenter at Tamenglong (January 4, 2016), M 5.2 epicenter at Churachandpur (February 24, 2017) and most recent M 4.4 epicenter at Thoubal (June 19, 2017). In these recent earthquakes, some houses and buildings were damaged, landslides were also occurred. A field study was carried out. An overview of the various causal factors involved in triggering of earthquake in Manipur has been discussed. It is found that improper planning, poor design, negligence, structural irregularities, poor quality materials, construction of foundation without proper site soil investigation and non-implementation of remedial measures, etc., are possibly the main causal factors for damage in Manipur during earthquake. The study also suggests, though the proper design of structure and foundation along with soil investigation, ground improvement methods, use of modern techniques of construction, counseling with engineer, mass awareness, etc., might be effective solution to control the hazard in many locations. An overview on the analysis pertaining to earthquake in Manipur together with on-going detailed site specific geotechnical investigation were presented.

Keywords: Manipur, earthquake, hazard, structure, soil

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Authors: Pui-Lai To, Chechen Liao, Ming-Chi Sung

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Work and family life are the most important areas for men and women today. Every professional is required to meet and fulfill the responsibilities of work and family roles. Although the development and popularity of communication technology bring a lot of benefits, including effective and efficient communication, may also generate conflicts between work and family life. Since mobile devices and the applications of mobile devices, such as instant messages, are ubiquitous, the boundaries of work and family roles are increasingly blurred. Professionals may be in the risk of work over-loading and work-family conflict. This study examines the impact of work stress on professionals’ life and health in the context of instant messaging application of smart phone. This study uses a web-based questionnaire to collect samples. The questionnaires are sent via virtual community sites, instant messaging applications, and e-mail. The study develops and empirically validates a work-family conflict model by integrating the pressure theory and technostress factors. The causal relationship between variables in the research model is tested. In terms of data analysis, Partial Least Square (PLS) in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is used for sample analysis and research model testing. The results of this study are as follows. First, both the variables of work-related stress and technological violations positively affect the work-family conflict. Second, both the variables of work-loading and technology-overloading have no effect on work-family conflict. Third, work-family conflict has negative effect on job satisfaction, family satisfaction, physical health, and mental health.

Keywords: mental health, physical health, technostress, work-family conflict, work-related stress

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Authors: Shuchi Bharti

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This article intends to analyse the transforming nature of state and corporate sector relationship in the light of evolving regulatory and institutional aspects pertaining to Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in India. The focus is on evaluating the accounts of law and decentred discourses, relevant within the changing regulatory and institutional paradigm that substantially goes ahead of formal legal control of state towards corporate actors. At this vantage point, it is important to understand the state’s posture towards a changing scenario particularly as the tone is set by regulatory parameters pertaining to CSR to drive process of engagement with the stakeholders. The tripartite framework of the article intends to focus on finding on the vital interconnected aspects of the CSR provisions (Section 135) of The Companies Act 2013 (The Act), rise of new institutions and the emergence of the decentred regulatory space. Thus is earmarked in a neo-liberal paradigm; state is witnessed to perform a responsive function in engendering enhanced public role for the corporate sector. In this overarching framework the aim is to undertake a causal, exploratory and relational analysis of aspects pertaining law, regulation and institutional transformations. Firstly, focus is drawn on to investigate the relational facets of the advent of law and regulatory framework of CSR. Secondly, in the light of the historical evolution, a causal connection is attempted between globalization, emergence of international soft law framework and the Indian case of CSR. Finally, I look into how the new Companies Act mandates CSR expenditure vis- a -vis multiple parameters and guidelines.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, stakeholders, soft law, decentred regulation

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Authors: E. Cascarosa-Salillas, J. Pozuelo-Muñoz, C. Rodríguez-Casals, A. de Echave

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This study focuses on improving the understanding of the capillarity phenomenon among Primary and Secondary Education students. Despite being a common concept in daily life and covered in various subjects, students’ comprehension remains limited. This work explores inquiry-based teaching methods to build a conceptual foundation of capillarity by examining the forces involved. The study adopts an inquiry-based teaching approach supported by research emphasizing the importance of modeling in science education. Scientific modeling aids students in applying knowledge across varied contexts and developing systemic thinking, allowing them to construct scientific models applicable to everyday situations. This methodology fosters the development of scientific competencies such as observation, hypothesis formulation, and communication. The research was structured as a case study with activities designed for Spanish Primary and Secondary Education students aged 9 to 13. The process included curriculum analysis, the design of an activity sequence, and its implementation in classrooms. Implementation began with questions that students needed to resolve using available materials, encouraging observation, experimentation, and the re-contextualization of activities to everyday phenomena where capillarity is observed. Data collection tools included audio and video recordings of the sessions, which were transcribed and analyzed alongside the students' written work. Students' drawings on capillarity were also collected and categorized. Qualitative analyses of the activities showed that, through inquiry, students managed to construct various models of capillarity, reflecting an improved understanding of the phenomenon. Initial activities allowed students to express prior ideas and formulate hypotheses, which were then refined and expanded in subsequent sessions. The generalization and use of graphical representations of their ideas on capillarity, analyzed alongside their written work, enabled the categorization of capillarity models: Intuitive Model: A visual and straightforward representation without explanations of how or why it occurs. Simple symbolic elements, such as arrows to indicate water rising, are used without detailed or causal understanding. It reflects an initial, immediate perception of the phenomenon, interpreted as something that happens "on its own" without delving into the microscopic level. Explanatory Intuitive Model: Students begin to incorporate causal explanations, though still limited and without complete scientific accuracy. They represent the role of materials and use basic terms such as ‘absorption’ or ‘attraction’ to describe the rise of water. This model shows a more complex understanding where the phenomenon is not only observed but also partially explained in terms of interaction, though without microscopic detail. School Scientific Model: This model reflects a more advanced and detailed understanding. Students represent the phenomenon using specific scientific concepts like ‘surface tension,’ cohesion,’ and ‘adhesion,’ including structured explanations connecting microscopic and macroscopic levels. At this level, students model the phenomenon as a coherent system, demonstrating how various forces or properties interact in the capillarity process, with representations on a microscopic level. The study demonstrated that the capillarity phenomenon can be effectively approached in class through the experimental observation of everyday phenomena, explained through guided inquiry learning. The methodology facilitated students’ construction of capillarity models and served to analyze an interaction phenomenon of different forces occurring at the microscopic level.

Keywords: capillarity, inquiry-based learning, scientific modeling, primary and secondary education, conceptual understanding, Drawing analysis.

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Authors: Porntip Ruengtam

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This article is an extension of previous research presenting the relevant factors related to environmental perceptions, residential community, and the design of a healing environment, which have effects on the well-being and requirements of Thai elderly. Research methodology began with observations and interviews in three case studies in terms of the management processes and environment design of similar existing projects in Thailand. The interview results were taken to summarize with related theories and literature. A questionnaire survey was designed for data collection to confirm the factors of requirements in a residential community intended for the Thai elderly. A structural equation model (SEM) was formulated to explain the cause-effect factors for the requirements of a residential community for Thai elderly. The research revealed that the requirements of a residential community for Thai elderly were classified into three groups when utilizing a technique for exploratory factor analysis. The factors were comprised of (1) requirements for general facilities and activities, (2) requirements for facilities related to health and security, and (3) requirements for facilities related to physical exercise in the residential community. The results from the SEM showed the background of elderly people had a direct effect on their requirements for a residential community from various aspects. The results should lead to the formulation of policies for design and management of residential communities for the elderly in order to enhance quality of life as well as both the physical and mental health of the Thai elderly.

Keywords: elderly, environmental design, residential community, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Annamarie Rannou, Horace Bartilow

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Global concerns about xenophobic activity are on the rise across developed and developing countries. And yet, social science scholarship has almost exclusively examined xenophobia as a prejudice of advanced western nations. This research argues that the fields of study related to xenophobia must be re-conceptualized within a framework of ethnicity in order to level the playing field for cross-regional inquiry. This study develops a new concept of ethnic xenophobia and integrates existing explanations of anti-migrant expression into theories of ethnic threat. We argue specifically that political elites convert economic, political, and social threats at the national level into ethnic xenophobic activity in order to gain or maintain political advantage among their native selectorate. We expand on Stuart Kaufman’s theory of symbolic politics to underscore the methods of mobilization used against migrants and the power of elite discourse in moments of national crises. An original dataset is used to examine over 35,000 cases of ethnic xenophobic activity targeting refugees. Wordscores software is used to develop a unique measure of anti-migrant elite rhetoric which captures the symbolic discourse of elites in their mobilization of ethnic xenophobic activism. We use a Structural Equation Model (SEM) to test the causal pathways of the theory across seventy-two developed and developing countries from 1990 to 2016. A framework of Most Different Systems Design (MDSD) is also applied to two pairs of developed-developing country cases, including Kenya and the Netherlands and Lebanon and the United States. This study sheds tremendous light on an underrepresented area of comparative research in migration studies. It shows that the causal elements of anti-migrant activity are far more similar than existing research suggests which has major implications for policy makers, practitioners, and academics in fields of migration protection and advocacy. It speaks directly to the mobilization of myths surrounding refugees, in particular, and the nationalization of narratives of migration that may be neutralized by the development of deeper associational relationships between natives and migrants.

Keywords: refugees, ethnicity, symbolic politics, elites, migration, comparative politics

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar, Arumugam Sankaran, Arjun K., Mousumi Das

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The amount of domestic consumption and population growth is having a positive impact on economic growth and development as observed by the Harrod-Domar and endogenous growth models. The paper negates the Solow growth model which argues the population growth has a detrimental impact on per capita and steady-state growth. Unlike the Solow model, the paper observes, the per capita income growth never falls zero, and it sustains as positive. Hence, our goal here is to investigate the relationship among population, domestic consumption and economic growth of India. For this estimation, annual data from 1980-2016 has been collected from World Development Indicator and Reserve Bank of India. To know the long run as well as short-run dynamics among the variables, we have employed the ARDL bounds testing approach of cointegration followed by modified Wald causality test to know the direction of causality. The conclusion from cointegration and ARDL estimates reveal that there is a long run positive and statistically significant relationship among the variables under study. At the same time, the causality test shows that there is a causal relationship that exists among the variables. Hence, this calls for policies which have a long run perspective in strengthening the capabilities and entitlements of people and stabilizing domestic demand so as to serve long run and short run growth and stability of the economy.

Keywords: cointegration, consumption, economic development, population growth

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Authors: Sajad Haghshenas

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Emerging evidence from clinical, genetic, and animal model studies suggests that the N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) glutamate receptors (NMDAR) may contribute to the pathophysiology and aetiology of neurological and psychiatric disorders and the patients with impaired NMDR receptors experience psychological symptoms. Therefore, we hypothesised that NMDAR receptors play a key role in the development of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). In this comparative analytical study, we utilized western blotting method to assay the expression levels of NMDA subunits NR1 and NR2 in the blood plasma of 50 male individuals diagnosed with ADHD in comparison to 20 healthy controls. The findings from the western blotting analysis provide support for the hypothesis that individuals with ADHD exhibit significantly lower levels of NR1/2 receptors compared to those without the disorder. Further research is needed to explore the potential causal relationship between reduced NR1/NR2 receptor levels and the development of ADHD.

Keywords: expression, glutamate receptors, NR1, NR2, ADHD

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Authors: Assel E. Molzhigitova, Amankeldi K. Sadanov, Elvira T. Ismailova, Kulyash A. Iskandarova, Olga N. Shemshura, Ainur I. Seitbattalova

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Fire blight is a very harmful for commercial apple and pear production quarantine bacterial disease. To date, several different methods have been proposed for disease control, including the use of copperbased preparations and antibiotics, which are not always reliable or effective. The use of bacteria as biocontrol agents is one of the most promising and eco-friendly alternative methods. Bacteria with protective activity against the causal agent of fire blight are often present among the epiphytic microorganisms of the phyllosphere of host plants. Therefore, the main objective of our study was screening of local epiphytic bacteria as possible antagonists against Erwinia amylovora, the causal agent of fire blight. Samples of infected organs of apple and pear trees (shoots, leaves, fruits) were collected from the industrial horticulture areas in various agro-ecological zones of Kazakhstan. Epiphytic microorganisms were isolated by standard and modified methods on specific nutrient media. The primary screening of selected microorganisms under laboratory conditions to determine the ability to suppress the growth of Erwinia amylovora was performed by agar-diffusion-test. Among 142 bacteria isolated from the fire blight host plants, 5 isolates, belonging to the genera Bacillus, Lactobacillus, Pseudomonas, Paenibacillus and Pantoea showed higher antagonistic activity against the pathogen. The diameters of inhibition zone have been depended on the species and ranged from 10 mm to 48 mm. The maximum diameter of inhibition zone (48 mm) was exhibited by B. amyloliquefaciens. Less inhibitory effect was showed by Pantoea agglomerans PA1 (19 mm). The study of inhibitory effect of Lactobacillus species against E. amylovora showed that among 7 isolates tested only one (Lactobacillus plantarum 17M) demonstrated inhibitory zone (30 mm). In summary, this study was devoted to detect the beneficial epiphytic bacteria from plants organs of pear and apple trees due to fire blight control in Kazakhstan. Results obtained from the in vitro experiments showed that the most efficient bacterial isolates are Lactobacillus plantarum 17M, Bacillus amyloliquefaciens MB40, and Pantoea agglomerans PA1. These antagonists are suitable for development as biocontrol agents for fire blight control. Their efficacies will be evaluated additionally, in biological tests under in vitro and field conditions during our further study.

Keywords: antagonists, epiphytic bacteria, Erwinia amylovora, fire blight

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Authors: Marco Sewald

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Comparing present to past the numbers of Americans expatriating U. S. citizenship have risen. Even though these numbers are small compared to the immigrants, U. S. citizens expatriations have historically been much lower, making the uptick worrisome. In addition, the published lists and numbers from the U.S. government seems incomplete, with many not counted. Different branches of the U. S. government report different numbers and no one seems to know exactly how big the real number is, even though the IRS and the FBI both track and/or publish numbers of Americans who renounce. Since there is no single explanation, anecdotal evidence suggests this uptick is caused by global tax law and increased compliance burdens imposed by the U.S. lawmakers on U.S. citizens abroad. Within a research project the question arose about the reasons why a constant growing number of U.S. citizens are expatriating – the answers are believed helping to explain the underlying governmental policy rational, leading to such activities. While it is impossible to locate former U.S. citizens to conduct a survey on the reasons and the U.S. government is not commenting on the reasons given within the process of expatriation, the chosen methodology is Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), in the first step by re-using current surveys conducted by different researchers within the population of U. S. citizens residing abroad during the last years. Surveys questioning the personal situation in the context of tax, compliance, citizenship and likelihood to repatriate to the U. S. In general SEM allows: (1) Representing, estimating and validating a theoretical model with linear (unidirectional or not) relationships. (2) Modeling causal relationships between multiple predictors (exogenous) and multiple dependent variables (endogenous). (3) Including unobservable latent variables. (4) Modeling measurement error: the degree to which observable variables describe latent variables. Moreover SEM seems very appealing since the results can be represented either by matrix equations or graphically. Results: the observed variables (items) of the construct are caused by various latent variables. The given surveys delivered a high correlation and it is therefore impossible to identify the distinct effect of each indicator on the latent variable – which was one desired result. Since every SEM comprises two parts: (1) measurement model (outer model) and (2) structural model (inner model), it seems necessary to extend the given data by conducting additional research and surveys to validate the outer model to gain the desired results.

Keywords: expatriation of U. S. citizens, SEM, structural equation modeling, validating

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Authors: Deniz Karagöz Yüncü

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This study tested a structural model which investigates the relationships among tourists’ need for uniqueness, perceived authenticity (object-based authenticity and existential authenticity) and behavioral intentions to consume cultural and heritage destinations. The sample of the study comprised of 281 participants in a cultural heritage site, in Cappadocia, Turkey. The data were provided via face to face interviews in two months (September and October) which considered the high season. Structural equation modeling was employed to test the causal relationships among the hypotheses. Findings revealed tourists’ creative choice had an influence on object-based authenticity and existential authenticity. Tourists’ avoidance had an influence on object-based authenticity. The study concluded that two dimensions, namely, the object based authenticity and existential authenticity had significant impact on behavioral intentions.

Keywords: needs for uniqueness, perceived existential authenticity, emotions, behavioral intentions

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Authors: Chomba Kalunga

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Many developing countries have a rich endowment of natural resources. Yet, amidst that wealth, living standards remain poor. At the same time, international markets have been surged with an increase in copper prices in the last twenty years. This is a presentation of the findings on the causal economic impact of Zambia’s copper mines, a country located in sub-Saharan Africa endowed with vast copper deposits on living standards using household data from 1996 to 2010, exploiting an episode where the copper prices on the international market were rising. Using an Instrumental Variable approach and controlling for constituency-level and microeconomic factors, the results show a significant impact of copper production on living standards. After splitting the constituencies close to and far away from the nearest mine, the results document that constituencies close to the mines benefited significantly from the increase in copper production, compared to their counterparts through increased levels of employment. Finally, the results are not consistent with the natural resource curse hypothesis; findings show a positive causal relationship between the presence of natural resources and socioeconomic outcomes in less developed countries, particularly for constituencies close to the mines in Zambia. Some key policy implications follow from the findings. The finding that increased copper production led to an increase in employment suggests that, in Zambias’ context, policies that promote local employment may be more beneficial to residents. Meaning that it is government policies that can help improve the living standards were government needs to work towards making this impact more substantial.

Keywords: copper prices, local development, mining, natural resources

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Authors: Shin-Hyung Cho, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho

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Truck-involved crashes have higher crash severity than non-truck-involved crashes. There have been many studies about the frequency of crashes and the development of severity models, but those studies only analyzed the relationship between observed variables. To identify why more people are injured or killed when trucks are involved in the crash, we must examine to quantify the complex causal relationship between severity of the crash and risk factors by adopting the latent factors of crashes. The aim of this study was to develop a structural equation or model based on truck-involved and non-truck-involved crashes, including five latent variables, i.e. a crash factor, environmental factor, road factor, driver’s factor, and severity factor. To clarify the unique characteristics of truck-involved crashes compared to non-truck-involved crashes, a confirmatory analysis method was used. To develop the model, we extracted crash data from 10,083 crashes on Korean freeways from 2008 through 2014. The results showed that the most significant variable affecting the severity of a crash is the crash factor, which can be expressed by the location, cause, and type of the crash. For non-truck-involved crashes, the crash and environment factors increase severity of the crash; conversely, the road and driver factors tend to reduce severity of the crash. For truck-involved crashes, the driver factor has a significant effect on severity of the crash although its effect is slightly less than the crash factor. The multiple group analysis employed to analyze the differences between the heterogeneous groups of drivers.

Keywords: crash severity, structural structural equation modeling (SEM), truck-involved crashes, multiple group analysis, crash on freeway

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Authors: Mechlouch Ridha Fethi

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This paper presents a recent mathematical model in political sciences concerning democracy. The model is represented by a logarithmic equation linking the Relative Index of Democracy (RID) to Participation Ratio (PR). Firstly the meanings of the different parameters of the model were presented; and the variation curve of the RID according to PR with different critical areas was discussed. Secondly, the model was applied to a virtual group where we show that the model can be applied depending on the gender. Thirdly, it was observed that the model can be extended to different language models of democracy and that little use to assess the state of democracy for some International organizations like UNO.

Keywords: democracy, mathematic, modelization, quantification

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Authors: Le Kang

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On the research question of 'how to achieve USR', this contribution reflects the concept of university social responsibility, identify three achievement models of USR as the society - diversified model, the university-cooperation model, the government - compound model, also conduct a case study to explore characteristics of Chinese achievement model of USR. The contribution concludes with discussion of how the university, government and society balance demands and roles, make necessarily strategic adjustment and innovative approach to repair the shortcomings of each achievement model.

Keywords: modern university, USR, achievement model, compound model

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Authors: Haris Karnezi, Kevin Tierney

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Cognitive Behaviour Drama is a research-based intervention model that brought together the science of psychology with the art form of drama to create an unobtrusive and exciting approach that would provide children on the higher end of the autism spectrum the motivation to explore the rules of social interaction and develop competencies associated with communicative success. The method involves engaging the participants in exciting fictional scenarios and encouraging them to seek various solutions on a number of problems that will lead them to an understanding of causal relationships and how a different course of action may lead to a different outcome. The sessions are structured to offer opportunities to the participants to practice target behaviours and understand the functions they serve. The study involved six separate interventions and employed both single case and group designs. Overall 8 children aged between 6 to 13 years, diagnosed with ASD participated in the study. Outcomes were measured using theory of mind tests, executive functioning tests, behavioural observations, pre and post intervention standardised social competence questionnaires for parents and teachers. Collectively, the results indicated positive changes in the self esteem and behaviour of all eight participants. In particular, improvements in the ability to solve theory of mind tasks were noted in the younger group; and qualitative improvements in social communication, in terms of verbal (content) and non verbal expression (body posture, vocal expression, fluency, eye contact, reduction of ritualistic mannerisms) were noted in the older group. The need for reliable impact measures to assess the effectiveness of the model in generating global changes in the participants’ behaviour outside the therapeutic context was identified.

Keywords: autism, drama, intervention, social skills

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Authors: Assaad Ghazouani

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Tunisia is ranked among the countries with low energy diversification, but this configuration makes the country too dependent on fossil fuel exporting countries and therefore extremely sensitive to any oil crises, many measures to diversify electricity production must be taken in making use of other forms of renewable and nuclear energy. One of the solutions required to escape this dependence is the liberalization of the electricity industry which can lead to an improvement of supply, energy diversification, and reducing some of the negative effects of the trade balance. This paper examines the issue of renewable electricity and economic growth in Tunisia consumption. The main objective is to study and analyze the causal link between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Tunisia over the period 1980-2010. To examine the relationship in the short and in the long terms, we used a multidimensional approach to cointegration based on recent advances in time series econometrics (test Zivot - Andrews, Test of Cointegration Johannsen, Granger causality test, error correction model (ECM)).

Keywords: renewable electricity, economic growth, VECM, cointegration, Tunisia

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Authors: Jay Martin L. Dionaldo

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This study aimed to develop a causal model on the performance of the basic education teachers in the Division of Malaybalay City for the school year 2018-2019. This study used the responses of 300 randomly selected basic education teachers of Malaybalay City, Bukidnon. They responded to the three sets of questionnaires patterned from the National Education Association (2018) on instructional leadership of teachers, the questionnaire of Caluza et al., (2017) for information and communications technology competencies and the questionnaire on the teachers’ performance using the Individual Performance Commitment and Review Form (IPCRF) adopted by the Department of Education (DepEd). Descriptive statistics such as mean for the description, correlation for a relationship, regression for the extent influence, and path analysis for the model that best fits teachers’ performance were used. Result showed that basic education teachers have a very satisfactory level of performance. Also, the teachers highly practice instructional leadership practices in terms of coaching and mentoring, facilitating collaborative relationships, and community awareness and engagement. On the other hand, they are proficient users of ICT in terms of technology operations and concepts and basic users in terms of their pedagogical indicators. Furthermore, instructional leadership, coaching and mentoring, facilitating collaborative relationships and community awareness and engagement and information and communications technology competencies; technology operations and concept and pedagogy were significantly correlated toward teachers’ performance. Coaching and mentoring, community awareness and engagement, and technology operations and concept were the best predictors of teachers’ performance. The model that best fit teachers’ performance is anchored on coaching and mentoring of the teachers, embedded with facilitating collaborative relationships, community awareness, and engagement, technology operations, and concepts, and pedagogy.

Keywords: information and communications technology, instructional leadership, coaching and mentoring, collaborative relationship

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Authors: Shurui Bai, Biyun Huang, Khe Foon Hew

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Gamification is defined as the use of game design elements in non-game contexts. The primary purpose of using gamification in an educational context is to engage students in school activities such that their likelihood of completion is increased. But how actually effective is gamification in improving student learning? In order to answer this question, this paper provides a systematic review of prior research studies on gamification in K-12 and university contexts limited to computer science discipline. Unlike other published gamification review works, we specifically analyzed comparison-based studies in quasi-experiment, historical control, and randomization rather than studies with mere anecdotal or phenomenological results. The main purpose for this is to discuss possible causal effects of gamified practices on student performance, behavior change, and perceptual skills following an integrative model. Implications for practice are discussed, along with several suggestions for future research studies.

Keywords: computer science, gamification, learning performance, systematic review

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Authors: Karima Kimouche

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In this paper, we consider the asymptotic problems in spectral analysis of stationary causal random fields. We impose conditions only involving (conditional) moments, which are easily verifiable for a variety of nonlinear random fields. Limiting distributions of periodograms and smoothed periodogram spectral density estimates are obtained and applications to the spectral domain bootstrap are given.

Keywords: spatial nonlinear processes, spectral estimators, GMC condition, bootstrap method

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Authors: Xiujuan Qiao

Abstract:

Cities worldwide are increasingly adopting sustainable stormwater solutions such as using green infrastructure to mitigate challenges related to stormwater, e.g., pluvial flooding, and stormwater pollution. Barriers caused by governance factors have been identified as the main reason for the slow pace of sustainable stormwater management implementation. In this study, we examined governance factors influencing local implementation in four case cities: Lund and Malmö, Sweden, and Xi’xian New Area and Zhenjiang, China. Based on systems thinking of interrelations between previously identified influencing governance factors in sustainable stormwater management (SSM), we developed a causal loop diagram (SSM-CLD) and used it to analyze 23 semi-structured interviews with local government officers in the four case cities. Based on the results, we created one SSM-CLD for each country and analyzed the main differences between these four SSM-CLDs. The results revealed that differences in governance structures can lead to differences in the influencing governance factors. In top-down political systems, e.g., China, the role of national policy in setting local leaders’ priorities is significant for SSM implementation. In political systems with more power devolved to local governments, e.g., Sweden, public awareness and local government politicians’ priorities are important for SSM implementation. Acquiring funding for long-term maintenance was identified as a challenge in all four cities studied. These results are relevant for policymakers, local government departments, consultancy companies, and researchers seeking a better understanding of how governance factors influence sustainable stormwater management.

Keywords: sustainable stormwater management, causal loop diagram, governance structures, local government priorities, public awareness, maintenance

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Authors: Zhou Jianhong

Abstract:

Model averaging is a desirable approach to deal with model uncertainty, which, however, has rarely been explored for Poisson regression. In this paper, we propose a model averaging procedure based on an unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback-Leibler distance for the Poisson regression. Simulation study shows that the proposed model average estimator outperforms some other commonly used model selection and model average estimators in some situations. Our proposed methods are further applied to a real data example and the advantage of this method is demonstrated again.

Keywords: model averaging, poission regression, Kullback-Leibler distance, statistics

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Authors: Farhad Shafiepour Motlagh, Narges Salehi

Abstract:

Purpose: The aim of the present study was a paradigm model of educational policy review strategies for the development of Professional schools in Iran. Research Methodology: The research method was based on Grounded theory. The statistical population included all articles of the ten years 2022-2010 and the method of sampling in a purposeful manner to the extent of theoretical saturation to 31 articles. For data analysis, open coding, axial coding and selective coding were used. Results: The results showed that causal conditions include social requirements (social expectations, educational justice, social justice); technology requirements (use of information and communication technology, use of new learning methods), educational requirements (development of educational territory, Development of educational tools and development of learning methods), contextual conditions including dual dimensions (motivational-psychological context, context of participation and cooperation), strategic conditions including (decentralization, delegation, organizational restructuring), intervention conditions (poor knowledge) Human resources, centralized system governance) and outcomes (school productivity, school professionalism, graduate entry into the labor market) were obtained. Conclusion: A review of educational policy is necessary to develop Iran's Professional schools, and this depends on decentralization, delegation, and, of course, empowerment of school principals.

Keywords: school productivity, professional schools, educational policy, paradigm

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Authors: Hounyèmè Romuald, Mama Daouda, Argillier Christine

Abstract:

The present study focused on the use of benthic macrofauna to define the reference state of an anthropized lagoon (Nokoué-Benin) from the responses of relevant metrics to proxies. The approach used is a combination of a joint species distribution model and Bayesian networks. The joint species distribution model was used to select the relevant metrics and generate posterior probabilities that were then converted into posterior response probabilities for each of the quality classes (pressure levels), which will constitute the conditional probability tables allowing the establishment of the probabilistic graph representing the different causal relationships between metrics and pressure proxies. For the definition of the reference thresholds, the predicted responses for low-pressure levels were read via probability density diagrams. Observations collected during high and low water periods spanning 03 consecutive years (2004-2006), sampling 33 macroinvertebrate taxa present at all seasons and sampling points, and measurements of 14 environmental parameters were used as application data. The study demonstrated reliable inferences, selection of 07 relevant metrics and definition of quality thresholds for each environmental parameter. The relevance of the metrics as well as the reference thresholds for ecological assessment despite the small sample size, suggests the potential for wider applicability of the approach for aquatic ecosystem monitoring and assessment programs in developing countries generally characterized by a lack of monitoring data.

Keywords: pressure proxies, bayesian inference, bioindicators, acadjas, functional traits

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Authors: L. Madouni, M. Ould Ouali, N. E. Hannachi

Abstract:

Two constitutive models for concrete are available in ABAQUS/Explicit, the Brittle Cracking Model and the Concrete Damaged Plasticity Model, and their suitability and limitations are well known. The aim of the present paper is to implement a damage-friction concrete constitutive model and to evaluate the performance of this model by comparing the predicted response with experimental data. The constitutive formulation of this material model is reviewed. In order to have consistent results, the parameter identification and calibration for the model have been performed. Several numerical simulations are presented in this paper, whose results allow for validating the capability of the proposed model for reproducing the typical nonlinear performances of concrete structures under different monotonic and cyclic load conditions. The results of the evaluation will be used for recommendations concerning the application and further improvements of the investigated model.

Keywords: Abaqus, concrete, constitutive model, numerical simulation

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Authors: Emma Serwaa Obobisaa, Haibo Chen

Abstract:

International trade and outward foreign direct investment are important factors which are generally recognized in the economic growth and development. Though several scholars have struggled to reveal the influence of trade and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth, most studies utilized common econometric models such as vector autoregression and aggregated the variables, which for the most part prompts, however, contradictory and mixed results. Thus, there is an exigent need for the precise study of the trade and FDI effect of economic growth while applying strong econometric models and disaggregating the variables into its separate individual variables to explicate their respective effects on economic growth. This will guarantee the provision of policies and strategies that are geared towards individual variables to ensure sustainable development and growth. This study, therefore, seeks to examine the causal effect of China-Africa trade and Outward Foreign Direct Investment on the economic growth of Africa using a robust and recent econometric approach such as system dynamics model. Our study impanels and tests an ensemble of a group of vital variables predominant in recent studies on trade-FDI-economic growth causality: Foreign direct ınvestment, international trade and economic growth. Our results showed that the system dynamics method provides accurate statistical inference regarding the direction of the causality among the variables than the conventional method such as OLS and Granger Causality predominantly used in the literature as it is more robust and provides accurate, critical values.

Keywords: economic growth, outward foreign direct investment, system dynamics model, international trade

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