Search results for: Bayesian change-point detection

Authors: Shokoufeh Abrisham, Seyed Mahmoud Hossieni, Elham Pishbin

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In this paper, a hybrid method based on the fault tree analysis (FTA) and Bayesian networks (BNs) are employed to evaluate the team performance quality of advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) procedures in emergency department. According to American Heart Association (AHA) guidelines, a category relying on staff action leading to clinical incidents and also some discussions with emergency medicine experts, a fault tree model for ACLS procedure is obtained based on the human performance. The obtained FTA model is converted into BNs, and some different scenarios are defined to demonstrate the efficiency and flexibility of the presented model of BNs. Also, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to indicate the effects of team leader presence and uncertainty knowledge of experts on the quality of ACLS. The proposed model based on BNs shows that how the results of risk analysis can be closed to reality comparing to the obtained results based on only FTA in medical procedures.

Keywords: advanced cardiac life support, fault tree analysis, Bayesian belief networks, numan performance, healthcare systems

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Authors: Kaewmart Pongakkasira

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This study investigated how different levels of pixelation affect face detection in natural scenes. Eye movements and reaction times, while observers searched for faces in natural scenes rendered in different ranges of pixels, were recorded. Detection performance for coarse visual detail at lower pixel size (3 x 3) was better than with very blurred detail carried by higher pixel size (9 x 9). The result is consistent with the notion that face detection relies on gross detail information of face-shape template, containing crude shape structure and features. In contrast, detection was impaired when face shape and features are obscured. However, it was considered that the degradation of scenic information might also contribute to the effect. In the next experiment, a more direct measurement of the effect of pixelation on face detection, only the embedded face photographs, but not the scene background, will be filtered.

Keywords: eye movements, face detection, face-shape information, pixelation

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Authors: M. Ranjeeth, S. Anuradha

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Spectrum sensing is the main feature of cognitive radio technology. Spectrum sensing gives an idea of detecting the presence of the primary users in a licensed spectrum. In this paper we compare the theoretical results of detection probability of different fading environments like Rayleigh, Rician, Nakagami-m fading channels with the simulation results using energy detection based spectrum sensing. The numerical results are plotted as P_f Vs P_d for different SNR values, fading parameters. It is observed that Nakagami fading channel performance is better than other fading channels by using energy detection in spectrum sensing. A MATLAB simulation test bench has been implemented to know the performance of energy detection in different fading channel environment.

Keywords: spectrum sensing, energy detection, fading channels, probability of detection, probability of false alarm

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Authors: Azam Abkhiz, Abolghasem Nasir

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To achieve sustainable competitive advantage in the market, it is necessary to provide and improve customer satisfaction and Loyalty. To reach this objective, companies need to identify and analyze their customers. Thus, it is critical to measure the level of customer satisfaction and Loyalty very carefully. This study attempts to build a conceptual model to provide clear insights of customer loyalty. Using Bayesian networks (BNs), a model is proposed to evaluate customer loyalty and its consequences, such as repurchase and positive word-of-mouth. BN is a probabilistic approach that predicts the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The most relevant determinants of customer loyalty are identified by the literature review. Perceived value, service quality, trust, corporate image, satisfaction, and switching costs are the most important variables that explain customer loyalty. The data are collected by use of a questionnaire-based survey from 1430 customers of a home appliances manufacturer in Iran. Four scenarios and sensitivity analyses are performed to run and analyze the impact of different determinants on customer loyalty. The proposed model allows businesses to not only set their targets but proactively manage their customer behaviors as well.

Keywords: customer satisfaction, customer loyalty, Bayesian networks, home appliances industry

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Authors: André Jesus, Yanjie Zhu, Irwanda Laory

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Structural health monitoring is one of the most promising technologies concerning aversion of structural risk and economic savings. Analysts often have to deal with a considerable variety of uncertainties that arise during a monitoring process. Namely the widespread application of numerical models (model-based) is accompanied by a widespread concern about quantifying the uncertainties prevailing in their use. Some of these uncertainties are related with the deterministic nature of the model (code uncertainty) others with the variability of its inputs (parameter uncertainty) and the discrepancy between a model/experiment (systematic uncertainty). The actual process always exhibits a random behaviour (observation error) even when conditions are set identically (residual variation). Bayesian inference assumes that parameters of a model are random variables with an associated PDF, which can be inferred from experimental data. However in many Bayesian methods the determination of systematic uncertainty can be problematic. In this work systematic uncertainty is associated with a discrepancy function. The numerical model and discrepancy function are approximated by Gaussian processes (surrogate model). Finally, to avoid the computational burden of a fully Bayesian approach the parameters that characterise the Gaussian processes were estimated in a four stage process (modular Bayesian approach). The proposed methodology has been successfully applied on fields such as geoscience, biomedics, particle physics but never on the SHM context. This approach considerably reduces the computational burden; although the extent of the considered uncertainties is lower (second order effects are neglected). To successfully identify the considered uncertainties this formulation was extended to consider multiple responses. The efficiency of the algorithm has been tested on a small scale aluminium bridge structure, subjected to a thermal expansion due to infrared heaters. Comparison of its performance with responses measured at different points of the structure and associated degrees of identifiability is also carried out. A numerical FEM model of the structure was developed and the stiffness from its supports is considered as a parameter to calibrate. Results show that the modular Bayesian approach performed best when responses of the same type had the lowest spatial correlation. Based on previous literature, using different types of responses (strain, acceleration, and displacement) should also improve the identifiability problem. Uncertainties due to parametric variability, observation error, residual variability, code variability and systematic uncertainty were all recovered. For this example the algorithm performance was stable and considerably quicker than Bayesian methods that account for the full extent of uncertainties. Future research with real-life examples is required to fully access the advantages and limitations of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: bayesian, calibration, numerical model, system identification, systematic uncertainty, Gaussian process

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Authors: John Onyima, Ikechukwu Ezepue

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Virtualization and cloud computing are among the fast-growing computing innovations in recent times. Organisations all over the world are moving their computing services towards the cloud this is because of its rapid transformation of the organization’s infrastructure and improvement of efficient resource utilization and cost reduction. However, this technology brings new security threats and challenges about safety, reliability and data confidentiality. Evidently, no single security technique can guarantee security or protection against malicious attacks on a cloud computing network hence an integrated model of intrusion detection and prevention system has been proposed. Anomaly-based and signature-based detection techniques will be integrated to enable the network and its host defend themselves with some level of intelligence. The anomaly-base detection was implemented using the local deviation factor graph-based (LDFGB) algorithm while the signature-based detection was implemented using the snort algorithm. Results from this collaborative intrusion detection and prevention techniques show robust and efficient security architecture for cloud computing networks.

Keywords: anomaly-based detection, cloud computing, intrusion detection, intrusion prevention, signature-based detection

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Authors: Doaa Wael, Naswa Abdelbaky

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Malware is malicious software that is built to cause destructive actions and damage information systems and networks. Malware infections increase rapidly, and types of malware have become more sophisticated, which makes the malware detection process more difficult. On the other side, the Internet of Things IoT technology is vulnerable to malware attacks. These IoT devices are always connected to the internet and lack security. This makes them easy for hackers to access. These malware attacks are becoming the go-to attack for hackers. Thus, in order to deal with this challenge, new malware detection techniques are needed. Currently, building a blockchain solution that allows IoT devices to download any file from the internet and to verify/approve whether it is malicious or not is the need of the hour. In recent years, blockchain technology has stood as a solution to everything due to its features like decentralization, persistence, and anonymity. Moreover, using blockchain technology overcomes some difficulties in malware detection and improves the malware detection ratio over-than the techniques that do not utilize blockchain technology. In this paper, we study malware detection models which are based on blockchain technology. Furthermore, we elaborate on the effect of blockchain technology in malware detection, especially in the android environment.

Keywords: malware analysis, blockchain, malware attacks, malware detection approaches

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Authors: Hyun-Koo Kim, Yonghun Kim, Yong-Hoon Kim, Ju Hee Lee, Myungho Song

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In this paper, we have described an efficient stereo matching method and pedestrian detection method using stereo types LWIR camera. We compared with three types stereo camera algorithm as block matching, ELAS, and SGM. For pedestrian detection using stereo LWIR camera, we used that SGM stereo matching method, free space detection method using u/v-disparity, and HOG feature based pedestrian detection. According to testing result, SGM method has better performance than block matching and ELAS algorithm. Combination of SGM, free space detection, and pedestrian detection using HOG features and SVM classification can detect pedestrian of 30m distance and has a distance error about 30 cm.

Keywords: advanced driver assistance system, pedestrian detection, stereo matching method, stereo long-wave IR camera

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Authors: Yang Yang, Dan Liu

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Anomaly detection models for network flow based on machine learning have poor detection performance under extremely unbalanced training data conditions and also have slow detection speed and large resource consumption when deploying on network edge devices. Embedding multi-teacher knowledge distillation (mKD) in anomaly detection can transfer knowledge from multiple teacher models to a single model. Inspired by this, we proposed a state-of-the-art model, mKDNAD, to improve detection performance. mKDNAD mine and integrate the knowledge of one-dimensional sequence and two-dimensional image implicit in network flow to improve the detection accuracy of small sample classes. The multi-teacher knowledge distillation method guides the train of the student model, thus speeding up the model's detection speed and reducing the number of model parameters. Experiments in the CICIDS2017 dataset verify the improvements of our method in the detection speed and the detection accuracy in dealing with the small sample classes.

Keywords: network flow anomaly detection (NAD), multi-teacher knowledge distillation, machine learning, deep learning

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Authors: Shigenori Togashi, Kei Takenaka

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We developed new processes which can collect and detect rapidly airborne pathogens such as the avian flu virus for the pandemic prevention. The fluorescence antibody technique is known as one of high-sensitive detection methods for viruses, but this needs up to a few hours to bind sufficient fluorescence dyes to viruses for detection. In this paper, we developed a mist-labeling can detect substitution viruses in a short time to improve the binding rate of fluorescent dyes and substitution viruses by the micro reaction process. Moreover, we developed the rapid detection system with the above 'mist labeling'. The detection system set with a sampling bag collecting patient’s breath and a cartridge can detect automatically pathogens within 10 minutes.

Keywords: viruses, sampler, mist, detection, fluorescent dyes, microreaction

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Authors: Igor Izosimov

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This work is devoted to applications of the Time-resolved laser-induced luminescence (TRLIF) spectroscopy and time-resolved laser-induced chemiluminescence spectroscopy for detection of lanthanides and actinides. Results of the experiments on Eu, Sm, U, and Pu detection in solutions are presented. The limit of uranyl detection (LOD) in urine in our TRLIF experiments was up to 5 pg/ml. In blood plasma LOD was 0.1 ng/ml and after mineralization was up to 8pg/ml – 10pg/ml. In pure solution, the limit of detection of europium was 0.005ng/ml and samarium, 0.07ng/ml. After addition urine, the limit of detection of europium was 0.015 ng/ml and samarium, 0.2 ng/ml. Pu, Np, and some U compounds do not produce direct luminescence in solutions, but when excited by laser radiation, they can induce chemiluminescence of some chemiluminogen (luminol in our experiments). It is shown that multi-photon scheme of chemiluminescence excitation makes chemiluminescence not only a highly sensitive but also a highly selective tool for the detection of lanthanides/actinides in solutions.

Keywords: actinides/lanthanides detection, laser spectroscopy with time resolution, luminescence/chemiluminescence, solutions

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Authors: Ana Staneva, Vessela Stoimenova

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A parametric estimation of the MBP with Power Series offspring distribution family is considered in this paper. The MLE for the parameters is obtained in the case when the observable data are incomplete and consist only with the generation sizes of the family tree of MBP. The parameter estimation is calculated by using the Monte Carlo EM algorithm. The estimation for the posterior distribution and for the offspring distribution parameters are calculated by using the Bayesian approach and the Gibbs sampler. The article proposes various examples with bivariate branching processes together with computational results, simulation and an implementation using R.

Keywords: Bayesian, branching processes, EM algorithm, Gibbs sampler, Monte Carlo methods, statistical estimation

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Authors: Ioanna Taouki, Marie Lallier, David Soto

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Metacognition refers to the capacity to reflect upon our own cognitive processes. Although there is an ongoing discussion in the literature on the role of metacognition in learning and academic achievement, little is known about its neurodevelopmental trajectories in early childhood, when children begin to receive formal education in reading. Here, we evaluate the metacognitive ability, estimated under a recently developed Signal Detection Theory model, of a cohort of children aged between 6 and 7 (N=60), who performed three two-alternative-forced-choice tasks (two linguistic: lexical decision task, visual attention span task, and one non-linguistic: emotion recognition task) including trial-by-trial confidence judgements. Our study has three aims. First, we investigated how metacognitive ability (i.e., how confidence ratings track accuracy in the task) relates to performance in general standardized tasks related to students' reading and general cognitive abilities using Spearman's and Bayesian correlation analysis. Second, we assessed whether or not young children recruit common mechanisms supporting metacognition across the different task domains or whether there is evidence for domain-specific metacognition at this early stage of development. This was done by examining correlations in metacognitive measures across different task domains and evaluating cross-task covariance by applying a hierarchical Bayesian model. Third, using robust linear regression and Bayesian regression models, we assessed whether metacognitive ability in this early stage is related to the longitudinal learning of children in a linguistic and a non-linguistic task. Notably, we did not observe any association between students’ reading skills and metacognitive processing in this early stage of reading acquisition. Some evidence consistent with domain-general metacognition was found, with significant positive correlations between metacognitive efficiency between lexical and emotion recognition tasks and substantial covariance indicated by the Bayesian model. However, no reliable correlations were found between metacognitive performance in the visual attention span and the remaining tasks. Remarkably, metacognitive ability significantly predicted children's learning in linguistic and non-linguistic domains a year later. These results suggest that metacognitive skill may be dissociated to some extent from general (i.e., language and attention) abilities and further stress the importance of creating educational programs that foster students’ metacognitive ability as a tool for long term learning. More research is crucial to understand whether these programs can enhance metacognitive ability as a transferable skill across distinct domains or whether unique domains should be targeted separately.

Keywords: confidence ratings, development, metacognitive efficiency, reading acquisition

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Jefferson Hernandez, Juan Padilla

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Estimation of price elasticity of demand is a valuable tool for the task of price settling. Given its relevance, it is an active field for microeconomic and statistical research. Price elasticity in the industry of oil and gas, in particular for fuels sold in gas stations, has shown to be a challenging topic given the market and state restrictions, and underlying correlations structures between the types of fuels sold by the same gas station. This paper explores the Lotka-Volterra model for the problem for price elasticity estimation in the context of fuels; in addition, it is introduced multivariate random effects with the purpose of dealing with errors, e.g., measurement or missing data errors. In order to model the underlying correlation structures, the Inverse-Wishart, Hierarchical Half-t and LKJ distributions are studied. Here, the Bayesian paradigm through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for model estimation is considered. Simulation studies covering a wide range of situations were performed in order to evaluate parameter recovery for the proposed models and algorithms. Results revealed that the proposed algorithms recovered quite well all model parameters. Also, a real data set analysis was performed in order to illustrate the proposed approach.

Keywords: price elasticity, volume, correlation structures, Bayesian models

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Authors: Jyoti Bharti, M. K. Gupta, Astha Jain

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This paper proposes a new improved approach for false positives filtering of detected face images on OpenCV’s Viola Jones Algorithm In this approach, for Filtering of False Positives, Skin Detection in two colour spaces i.e. HSV (Hue, Saturation and Value) and YCrCb (Y is luma component and Cr- red difference, Cb- Blue difference) is used. As a result, it is found that false detection has been reduced. Our proposed method reaches the accuracy of about 98.7%. Thus, a better recognition rate is achieved.

Keywords: face detection, Viola Jones, false positives, OpenCV

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Authors: Xiping Wang，Shuran Yao, Liqin Dai

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Many studies report the winter is getting warmer and the minimum air temperature is obviously rising as the important climate warming evidences. The exacerbated air temperature fluctuation tending to bring more severe weather variation is another important consequence of recent climate change which induced more disasters to crop growth in quite a certain regions. Hebei Province is an important winter wheat growing province in North of China that recently endures more winter freezing injury influencing the local winter wheat crop management. A winter wheat freezing injury assessment Bayesian Network framework was established for the objectives of estimating, assessing and predicting winter wheat freezing disasters in Hebei Province. In this framework, the freezing disasters was classified as three severity degrees (SI) among all the three types of freezing, i.e., freezing caused by severe cold in anytime in the winter, long extremely cold duration in the winter and freeze-after-thaw in early season after winter. The factors influencing winter wheat freezing SI include time of freezing occurrence, growth status of seedlings, soil moisture, winter wheat variety, the longitude of target region and, the most variable climate factors. The climate factors included in this framework are daily mean and range of air temperature, extreme minimum temperature and number of days during a severe cold weather process, the number of days with the temperature lower than the critical temperature values, accumulated negative temperature in a potential freezing event. The Bayesian Network model was evaluated using actual weather data and crop records at selected sites in Hebei Province using real data. With the multi-stage influences from the various factors, the forecast and assessment of the event-based target variables, freezing injury occurrence and its damage to winter wheat production, were shown better scoped by Bayesian Network model.

Keywords: bayesian networks, climatic change, freezing Injury, winter wheat

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Authors: Rashi Bhalla, Russel Pears, M. Asif Naeem

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In this 'Information Explosion Era' analyzing data 'a critical commodity' and mining knowledge from vertically distributed data stream incurs huge communication cost. However, an effort to decrease the communication in the distributed environment has an adverse influence on the classification accuracy; therefore, a research challenge lies in maintaining a balance between transmission cost and accuracy. This paper proposes a method based on Bayesian inference to reduce the communication volume in a heterogeneous distributed environment while retaining prediction accuracy. Our experimental evaluation reveals that a significant reduction in communication can be achieved across a diverse range of dataset types.

Keywords: big data, bayesian inference, distributed data stream mining, heterogeneous-distributed data

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Authors: Lan Du, Yan Wang, Hui Dai

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Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image change detection has recently become a challenging problem owing to the existence of speckle noises. In this paper, an unsupervised distribution-free change detection for SAR image based on scale-invariant feature transform (SIFT) keypoints and segmentation is proposed. Firstly, the noise-robust SIFT keypoints which reveal the blob-like structures in an image are extracted in the log-ratio image to reduce the detection range. Then, different from the traditional change detection which directly obtains the change-detection map from the difference image, segmentation is made around the extracted keypoints in the two original multitemporal SAR images to obtain accurate changed region. At last, the change-detection map is generated by comparing the two segmentations. Experimental results on the real SAR image dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: change detection, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), Scale-Invariant Feature Transformation (SIFT), segmentation

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Authors: Samane Sharifi Monfared, Lavdie Rada

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Nowadays, autonomous vehicles are developing rapidly toward facilitating human car driving. One of the main issues is road lane detection for a suitable guidance direction and car accident prevention. This paper aims to improve and optimize road line detection based on a combination of camera calibration, the Hough transform, and Canny edge detection. The video processing is implemented using the Open CV library with the novelty of having a scale able region masking. The aim of the study is to introduce automatic road lane detection techniques with the user’s minimum manual intervention.

Keywords: hough transform, canny edge detection, optimisation, scaleable masking, camera calibration, improving the quality of image, image processing, video processing

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Authors: Yayun Hsu, Henry Horng-Shing Lu

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This paper proposes a data-driven, biology-inspired neural segmentation method of 3D drosophila Brainbow images. We use Bayesian Sequential Partitioning algorithm for probabilistic modeling, which can be used to detect somas and to eliminate cross talk effects. This work attempts to develop an automatic methodology for neuron image segmentation, which nowadays still lacks a complete solution due to the complexity of the image. The proposed method does not need any predetermined, risk-prone thresholds since biological information is inherently included in the image processing procedure. Therefore, it is less sensitive to variations in neuron morphology; meanwhile, its flexibility would be beneficial for tracing the intertwining structure of neurons.

Keywords: brainbow, 3D imaging, image segmentation, neuron morphology, biological data mining, non-parametric learning

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Authors: Mohammadali Tavakoli, Atefeh Heydari, Zuriati Ismail, Naomie Salim

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With the increasing number of people reviewing products online in recent years, opinion sharing websites has become the most important source of customers’ opinions. Unfortunately, spammers generate and post fake reviews in order to promote or demote brands and mislead potential customers. These are notably destructive not only for potential customers but also for business holders and manufacturers. However, research in this area is not adequate, and many critical problems related to spam detection have not been solved to date. To provide green researchers in the domain with a great aid, in this paper, we have attempted to create a high-quality framework to make a clear vision on review spam-detection methods. In addition, this report contains a comprehensive collection of detection metrics used in proposed spam-detection approaches. These metrics are extremely applicable for developing novel detection methods.

Keywords: fake reviews, feature collection, opinion spam, spam detection

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Authors: Yohei Saika

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On the basis of Bayesian inference using the maximizer of the posterior marginal estimate, we carry out phase unwrapping using multiple interferograms via generalized mean-field theory. Numerical calculations for a typical wave-front in remote sensing using the synthetic aperture radar interferometry, phase diagram in hyper-parameter space clarifies that the present method succeeds in phase unwrapping perfectly under the constraint of surface- consistency condition, if the interferograms are not corrupted by any noises. Also, we find that prior is useful for extending a phase in which phase unwrapping under the constraint of the surface-consistency condition. These results are quantitatively confirmed by the Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, generalized mean-field theory, phase unwrapping, multiple interferograms, statistical mechanics

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Authors: Zeytu G. Asfaw, Serkalem K. Abrha, Demisew G. Degefu

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Background: HIV/AIDS remains a major public health problem in Ethiopia and heavily affecting people of productive and reproductive age. We aimed to compare the performance of Parametric Survival Analysis and Bayesian Survival Analysis using simulations and in a real dataset application focused on determining predictors of HIV patient survival. Methods: A Parametric Survival Models - Exponential, Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Gompertz and Generalized gamma distributions were considered. Simulation study was carried out with two different algorithms that were informative and noninformative priors. A retrospective cohort study was implemented for HIV infected patients under Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Alamata General Hospital, North Ethiopia. Results: A total of 320 HIV patients were included in the study where 52.19% females and 47.81% males. According to Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for the two sex groups, females has shown better survival time in comparison with their male counterparts. The median survival time of HIV patients was 79 months. During the follow-up period 89 (27.81%) deaths and 231 (72.19%) censored individuals registered. The average baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells count for HIV/AIDS patients were 126.01 but after a three-year antiretroviral therapy follow-up the average cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells counts were 305.74, which was quite encouraging. Age, functional status, tuberculosis screen, past opportunistic infection, baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells, World Health Organization clinical stage, sex, marital status, employment status, occupation type, baseline weight were found statistically significant factors for longer survival of HIV patients. The standard error of all covariate in Bayesian log-normal survival model is less than the classical one. Hence, Bayesian survival analysis showed better performance than classical parametric survival analysis, when subjective data analysis was performed by considering expert opinions and historical knowledge about the parameters. Conclusions: Thus, HIV/AIDS patient mortality rate could be reduced through timely antiretroviral therapy with special care on the potential factors. Moreover, Bayesian log-normal survival model was preferable than the classical log-normal survival model for determining predictors of HIV patients survival.

Keywords: antiretroviral therapy (ART), Bayesian analysis, HIV, log-normal, parametric survival models

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Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

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The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

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This paper discusses the effects of using progressive Type-I right censoring on the design of the Simple Step Accelerated Life testing using Bayesian approach for Weibull life products under the assumption of cumulative exposure model. The optimization criterion used in this paper is to minimize the expected pre-posterior variance of the PTH percentile time of failures. The model variables are the stress changing time and the stress value for the first step. A comparison between the conventional and the progressive Type-I right censoring is provided. The results have shown that the progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of testing on the expense of the test precision when the sample size is small. Moreover, the results have shown that using strong priors or large sample size reduces the sensitivity of the test precision to the censoring proportion. Hence, the progressive Type-I right censoring is recommended in these cases as progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of the test and doesn't affect the precision of the test a lot. Moreover, the results have shown that using direct or indirect priors affects the precision of the test.

Keywords: reliability, accelerated life testing, cumulative exposure model, Bayesian estimation, progressive type-I censoring, Weibull distribution

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Authors: M. Kowalski, M. Kastek, M. Szustakowski

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Multispectral screening systems are becoming more popular because of their very interesting properties and applications. One of the most significant applications of multispectral screening systems is prevention of terrorist attacks. There are many kinds of threats and many methods of detection. Visual detection of objects hidden under clothing of a person is one of the most challenging problems of threats detection. There are various solutions of the problem; however, the most effective utilize multispectral surveillance imagers. The development of imaging devices and exploration of new spectral bands is a chance to introduce new equipment for assuring public safety. We investigate the possibility of long lasting detection of potentially dangerous objects covered with various types of clothing. In the article we present the results of comparative studies of passive imaging in three spectrums – visible, infrared and terahertz

Keywords: terahertz, infrared, object detection, screening camera, image processing

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Authors: Seyed Nima Tayarani Bathaie

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In this paper, an image-receiving system was designed and implemented through optimization of object detection algorithms using Haar features. This optimized algorithm served as face and eye detection separately. Then, cascading them led to a clear image of the user. Utilization of this feature brought about higher security by preventing fraud. This attribute results from the fact that services will be given to the user on condition that a clear image of his face has already been captured which would exclude the inappropriate person. In order to expedite processing and eliminating unnecessary ones, the input image was compressed, a motion detection function was included in the program, and detection window size was confined.

Keywords: face detection algorithm, Haar features, security of ATM

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Authors: Vahid Bayrami Rad

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In this research, common methods and techniques have been investigated with a focus on intelligent fault finding and monitoring systems in the oil industry. In fact, remote and intelligent control methods are considered a necessity for implementing various operations in the oil industry, but benefiting from the knowledge extracted from countless data generated with the help of data mining algorithms. It is a avoid way to speed up the operational process for monitoring and troubleshooting in today's big oil companies. Therefore, by comparing data mining algorithms and checking the efficiency and structure and how these algorithms respond in different conditions, The proposed (Bayesian) algorithm using data clustering and their analysis and data evaluation using a colored Petri net has provided an applicable and dynamic model from the point of view of reliability and response time. Therefore, by using this method, it is possible to achieve a dynamic and consistent model of the remote control system and prevent the occurrence of leakage in oil pipelines and refineries and reduce costs and human and financial errors. Statistical data The data obtained from the evaluation process shows an increase in reliability, availability and high speed compared to other previous methods in this proposed method.

Keywords: wireless sensors, petroleum equipment troubleshooting, Bayesian algorithm, colored Petri net, rapid miner, data mining-reliability

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Authors: Venkat S. Somayajula

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Ground surface temperature history prediction model plays a vital role in determining standards for international nuclear waste management. International standards for borehole based nuclear waste disposal require paleoclimate cycle predictions on scale of a million forward years for the place of waste disposal. This research focuses on developing a paleoclimate cycle prediction model using Bayesian long-short term memory (LSTM) neural architecture operated on accumulated borehole temperature history data. Bayesian models have been previously used for paleoclimate cycle prediction based on Monte-Carlo weight method, but due to limitations pertaining model coupling with certain other prediction networks, Bayesian models in past couldn’t accommodate prediction cycle’s over 1000 years. LSTM has provided frontier to couple developed models with other prediction networks with ease. Paleoclimate cycle developed using this process will be trained on existing borehole data and then will be coupled to surface temperature history prediction networks which give endpoints for backpropagation of LSTM network and optimize the cycle of prediction for larger prediction time scales. Trained LSTM will be tested on past data for validation and then propagated for forward prediction of temperatures at borehole locations. This research will be beneficial for study pertaining to nuclear waste management, anthropological cycle predictions and geophysical features

Keywords: Bayesian long-short term memory neural network, borehole temperature, ground surface temperature history, paleoclimate cycle

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