Search results for: probabilistic seismic hazard

Authors: Ehsan Sadie

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Developments in the field of damping technology and advances in the area of dampers in equipping many structures have been the result of efforts and testing by researchers in this field. In this paper, a sample of a two-story building is simulated with the help of SAP2000 software, and the effect of a viscous damper on the performance of the structure is explained. The effect of dampers on the response of the structure is investigated. This response involves the horizontal displacement of floors. In this case, the structure is modeled once without a damper and again with a damper. In this regard, the results are presented in the form of tables and graphs. Since the seismic behavior of the structure is studied, the responses show the appropriate effect of viscous dampers in reducing the displacement of floors, and also the energy dissipation in the structure with dampers compared to structures without dampers is significant. Therefore, it is economical to use viscous dampers in areas that have a higher relative earthquake risk.

Keywords: bending frame, displacement criterion, dynamic response spectra, earthquake, non-linear history spectrum, SAP2000 software, structural response, viscous damper

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: G. A. Gevorgyan, K. A. Ghazaryan, T. H. Derdzyan

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The heavy metal pollution of the soils around the mining area near Shamlugh town and related risks to human health were assessed. The investigations showed that the soils were polluted with heavy metals that can be ranked by anthropogenic pollution degree as follows: Cu>Pb>As>Co>Ni>Zn. The main sources of the anthropogenic metal pollution of the soils were the copper mining area near Shamlugh town, the Chochkan tailings storage facility and the trucks transferring are from the mining area. Copper pollution degree in some observation sites was unallowable for agricultural production. The total non-carcinogenic chronic hazard index (THI) values in some places, including observation sites in Shamlugh town, were above the safe level (THI<1) for children living in this territory. Although the highest heavy metal enrichment degree in the soils was registered in case of copper, the highest health risks to humans especially children were posed by cobalt which is explained by the fact that heavy metals have different toxicity levels and penetration characteristics.

Keywords: Armenia, copper mine, heavy metal pollution of soil, health risks

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Authors: H. J. Wattimanela, U. S. Passaribu, N. T. Puspito, S. W. Indratno

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Banda Sea collision zone (BSCZ) of is the result of the interaction and convergence of Indo-Australian plate, Eurasian plate and Pacific plate. This location in the eastern part of Indonesia. This zone has a very high seismic activity. In this research, we will be calculated rate (λ) and Mean Square Eror (MSE). By this result, we will identification of Poisson distribution of earthquakes in the BSCZ with the point process approach. Chi-square test approach and test Anscombe made in the process of identifying a Poisson distribution in the partition area. The data used are earthquakes with Magnitude ≥ 6 SR and its period 1964-2013 and sourced from BMKG Jakarta. This research is expected to contribute to the Moluccas Province and surrounding local governments in performing spatial plan document related to disaster management.

Keywords: molluca banda sea collision zone, earthquakes, mean square error, poisson distribution, chi-square test, anscombe test

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Authors: K. A. Adeleke

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Often in epidemiological research, introducing stratified Cox model can account for the existence of interactions of some inherent factors with some major/noticeable factors. This research work aimed at modelling correlated variables in infant mortality with the existence of some inherent factors affecting the infant survival function. An alternative semiparametric Stratified Cox model is proposed with a view to take care of multilevel factors that have interactions with others. This, however, was used as a tool to model infant mortality data from Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) with some multilevel factors (Tetanus, Polio, and Breastfeeding) having correlation with main factors (Sex, Size, and Mode of Delivery). Asymptotic properties of the estimators are also studied via simulation. The tested model via data showed good fit and performed differently depending on the levels of the interaction of the strata variable Z*. An evidence that the baseline hazard functions and regression coefficients are not the same from stratum to stratum provides a gain in information as against the usage of Cox model. Simulation result showed that the present method produced better estimates in terms of bias, lower standard errors, and or mean square errors.

Keywords: stratified Cox, semiparametric model, infant mortality, multilevel factors, cofounding variables

Procedia PDF Downloads 558

Authors: Joseph Bertrand Iboum Kissaaka, Charles Fonyuy Ngum Tchioben, Paul Gustave Fowe Kwetche, Jeannette Ngo Elogan Ntem, Joseph Binyet Njebakal, Ribert Yvan Makosso-Tchapi, François Mvondo Owono, Marie Joseph Ntamak-Nida

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Located in the Gulf of Guinea, the Kribi-Campo sub-basin belongs to the Aptian salt basins along the West African Margin. In this paper, we investigated the tectono-stratigraphic architecture of the basin, focusing on the role of salt tectonics and strike-slip faults along the Kribi Fracture Zone with implications for reservoir prediction. Using 2D seismic data and well data interpreted through sequence stratigraphy with integrated seismic attributes analysis with Python Programming and unsupervised Machine Learning, at least six second-order sequences, indicating three main stages of tectono-stratigraphic evolution, were determined: pre-salt syn-rift, post-salt rift climax and post-rift stages. The pre-salt syn-rift stage with KTS1 tectonosequence (Barremian-Aptian) reveals a transform rifting along NE-SW transfer faults associated with N-S to NNE-SSW syn-rift longitudinal faults bounding a NW-SE half-graben filled with alluvial to lacustrine-fan delta deposits. The post-salt rift-climax stage (Lower to Upper Cretaceous) includes two second-order tectonosequences (KTS2 and KTS3) associated with the salt tectonics and Campo High uplift. During the rift-climax stage, the growth of salt diapirs developed syncline withdrawal basins filled by early forced regression, mid transgressive and late normal regressive systems tracts. The early rift climax underlines some fine-grained hangingwall fans or delta deposits and coarse-grained fans from the footwall of fault scarps. The post-rift stage (Paleogene to Neogene) contains at least three main tectonosequences KTS4, KTS5 and KTS6-7. The first one developed some turbiditic lobe complexes considered as mass transport complexes and feeder channel-lobe complexes cutting the unstable shelf edge of the Campo High. The last two developed submarine Channel Complexes associated with lobes towards the southern part and braided delta to tidal channels towards the northern part of the Kribi-Campo sub-basin. The reservoir distribution in the Kribi-Campo sub-basin reveals some channels, fan lobes reservoirs and stacked channels reaching up to the polygonal fault systems.

Keywords: tectono-stratigraphic architecture, Kribi-Campo sub-basin, machine learning, pre-salt sequences, post-salt sequences

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Authors: Abdelkader Soumaya, Noureddine Ben Ayed, Ali Kadri, Said Maouche, Hayet Khayati Ammar, Ahmed Braham

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The historic sites of Bulla Regia and Chemtou are among the most important archaeological monuments in northwestern Tunisia, which flourished as large, wealthy settlements during the Roman and Byzantine periods (2nd to 7th centuries AD). An archaeoseismological study provides the first indications about the impact of a possible ancient strong earthquake in the destruction of these cities. Based on previous archaeological excavation results, including numismatic evidence, pottery, economic meltdown and urban transformation, the abrupt ruin and destruction of the cities of Bulla Regia and Chemtou can be bracketed between 613 and 647 AD. In this study, we carried out the first attempt to use the analysis of earthquake archaeological effects (EAEs) that were observed during our field investigations in these two historic cities. The damage includes different types of EAEs: folds on regular pavements, displaced and deformed vaults, folded walls, tilted walls, collapsed keystones in arches, dipping broken corners, displaced-fallen columns, block extrusions in walls, penetrative fractures in brick-made walls and open fractures on regular pavements. These deformations are spread over 10 different sectors or buildings and include 56 measured EAEs. The structural analysis of the identified EAEs can indicate an ancient destructive earthquake that probably destroyed the Bulla Regia and Chemtou archaeological sites. We then analyzed these measurements using structural geological analysis to obtain the maximum horizontal strain of the ground (e.g., S ₕₘₐₓ) on each building-oriented damage. After the collection and analysis of these strain datasets, we proceed to plot the orientation of Sₕₘₐₓ trajectories on the map of the archaeological site (Bulla Regia). We concluded that the obtained Sₕₘₐₓ trajectories within this site could then be related to the mean direction of ground motion (oscillatory movement of the ground) triggered by a seismic event, as documented for some historical earthquakes across the world. These Sₕₘₐₓ orientations closely match the current active stress field, as highlighted by some instrumental events in northern Tunisia. In terms of the seismic source, we strongly suggest that the reactivation of a neotectonic strike-slip fault trending N50E must be responsible for this probable historic earthquake and the recent instrumental seismicity in this area. This fault segment, affecting the folded quaternary deposits south of Jebel Rebia, passes through the monument of Bulla Regia. Stress inversion of the observed and measured data along this fault shows an N150 - 160 trend of Sₕₘₐₓ under a transpressional tectonic regime, which is quite consistent with the GPS data and the state of the current stress field in this region.

Keywords: NW Tunisia, archaeoseismology, earthquake archaeological effect, bulla regia - Chemtou, seismotectonic, neotectonic fault

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Authors: S. Vavias, T. R. Brewer, T. S. Farewell

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Coastal floods have been identified as an important natural hazard that can cause significant damage to the populated built-up areas, related infrastructure and also ecosystems and habitats. This study attempts to fill the gap associated with the development of preliminary assessments of coastal flood vulnerability for compliance with the EU Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks (2007/60/EC). In this context, a methodology has been created by taking into account three major parameters; the maximum wave run-up modelled from historical weather observations, the highest tide according to historic time series, and the sea level rise projections due to climate change. A high resolution digital terrain model (DTM) derived from LIDAR data has been used to integrate the estimated flood events in a GIS environment. The flood vulnerability map created shows potential risk areas and can play a crucial role in the coastal zone planning process. The proposed method has the potential to be a powerful tool for policy and decision makers for spatial planning and strategic management.

Keywords: coastal floods, vulnerability mapping, climate change, extreme weather events

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Authors: Fahrur Rozi, Daniswara Krisna Prabatha, Latief Zulfikar Chusaini

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Amidst the backdrop of Pertamina Plaju Refinery, which stands as the oldest and historically less technologically advanced among Pertamina's refineries, lies a unique challenge. Originally integrating facilities established by Shell in 1904 and Stanvac (originally Standard Oil) in 1926, the primary challenge at Plaju Refinery does not solely revolve around complexity; instead, it lies in ensuring reliability, considering its operational history of over a century. After centuries of existence, Plaju Refinery has never undergone a comprehensive major turnaround encompassing all its units. The usual practice involves partial turnarounds that are sequentially conducted across its primary, secondary, and tertiary units (utilities and offsite). However, a significant shift is on the horizon. In the Q-IV of 2023, the refinery embarks on its first-ever major turnaround since its establishment. This decision was driven by the alignment of maintenance timelines across various units. Plaju Refinery's major turnaround was scheduled for October-November 2023, spanning 45 calendar days, with the objective of enhancing the operational reliability of all refinery units. The extensive job list for this turnaround encompasses 1583 tasks across 18 units/areas, involving approximately 9000 contracted workers. In this context, the Strategy of Simultaneous Operations (SIMOPS) execution emerges as a pivotal tool to optimize time efficiency and ensure safety. A Hazard Effect Management Process (HEMP) has been employed to assess the risk ratings of each task within the turnaround. Out of the tasks assessed, 22 are deemed high-risk and necessitate mitigation. The SIMOPS approach serves as a preventive measure against potential incidents. It is noteworthy that every turnaround period at Pertamina Plaju Refinery involves SIMOPS-related tasks. In this context, enhancing the implementation strategy of "Simultaneous Operations (SIMOPS)" becomes imperative to minimize the occurrence of incidents. At least four improvements have been introduced in the enhancement process for the major turnaround at Refinery Plaju. The first improvement involves conducting systematic risk assessment and potential hazard mitigation studies for SIMOPS tasks before task execution, as opposed to the previous on-site approach. The second improvement includes the completion of SIMOPS Job Mitigation and Work Matrices Sheets, which was often neglected in the past. The third improvement emphasizes comprehensive awareness to workers/contractors regarding potential hazards and mitigation strategies for SIMOPS tasks before and during the major turnaround. The final improvement is the introduction of a daily program for inspecting and observing work in progress for SIMOPS tasks. Prior to these improvements, there was no established program for monitoring ongoing activities related to SIMOPS tasks during the turnaround. This study elucidates the steps taken to enhance SIMOPS within Pertamina, drawing from the experiences of Plaju Refinery as a guide. A real actual case study will be provided from our experience in the operational unit. In conclusion, these efforts are essential for the success of the first-ever major turnaround at Plaju Refinery, with the SIMOPS strategy serving as a central component. Based on these experiences, enhancements have been made to Pertamina's official Internal Guidelines for Executing SIMOPS Risk Mitigation, benefiting all Pertamina units.

Keywords: process safety management, turn around, oil refinery, risk assessment

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Authors: Sherry Ann Ganase, Sandra Sookram

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In this paper, the vulnerability level to climate change is analysed using a comprehensive index, consisting of five pillars: human, social, natural, physical, and financial. A structural equation model is also applied to determine the indicators and relationships that exist between the observed environmental changes and the quality of life. Using survey data to model the results, a value of 0.382 is derived as the vulnerability level for San Pedro, where values closer to zero indicates lower vulnerability and values closer to one indicates higher vulnerability. The results showed the social pillar to be most vulnerable, with the indicator ‘participation’ ranked the highest in its cohort. Although, the environmental pillar is ranked as least vulnerable, the indicators ‘hazard’ and ‘biodiversity’ obtained scores closer to 0.4, suggesting that changes in the environment are occurring from natural and anthropogenic activities. These changes can negatively influence the quality of life as illustrated in the structural equation modelling. The study concludes by reporting on the need for collective action and participation by households in lowering vulnerability to ensure sustainable development and livelihood.

Keywords: climate change, participation, San Pedro, structural equation model, vulnerability index

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Authors: Angela U. Makolo, Temitayo A. Olagunju

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The knowledge of signaling pathways is central to understanding the biological mechanisms of organisms since it has been identified that in eukaryotic organisms, the number of signaling pathways determines the number of ways the organism will react to external stimuli. Signaling pathways are studied using protein interaction networks constructed from protein-protein interaction data obtained using high throughput experimental procedures. However, these high throughput methods are known to produce very high rates of false positive and negative interactions. In order to construct a useful protein interaction network from this noisy data, computational methods are applied to validate the protein-protein interactions. In this study, a computational technique to identify signaling pathways from a protein interaction network constructed using validated protein-protein interaction data was designed. A weighted interaction graph of the Saccharomyces cerevisiae (Baker’s Yeast) organism using the proteins as the nodes and interactions between them as edges was constructed. The weights were obtained using Bayesian probabilistic network to estimate the posterior probability of interaction between two proteins given the gene expression measurement as biological evidence. Only interactions above a threshold were accepted for the network model. A pathway was formalized as a simple path in the interaction network from a starting protein and an ending protein of interest. We were able to identify some pathway segments, one of which is a segment of the pathway that signals the start of the process of meiosis in S. cerevisiae.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, protein interaction networks, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, signalling pathways

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Authors: Devon Brown, Liu Chunmei

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This paper will present an analysis as part of the researchers dissertation topic focusing on the intersection of affective and analytical directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) in the context of Decision Support Systems (DSS). The researcher’s work involves analyzing decision theory models like Affective and Bayesian Decision theory models and how they could be implemented under an Affective Computing Framework using Information Fusion and Human-Centered Design. Additionally, the researcher is beginning research on an Affective-Analytic Decision Framework (AADF) model for their dissertation research and are looking to merge logic and analytic models with empathetic insights into affective DAGs. Data-collection efforts begin Fall 2024 and in preparation for the efforts this paper looks to analyze previous research in this area and introduce the AADF framework and propose conceptual models for consideration. For this paper, the research emphasis is placed on analyzing Bayesian networks and Markov models which offer probabilistic techniques during uncertainty in decision-making. Ideally, including affect into analytic models will ensure algorithms can increase user trust with algorithms by including emotional states and the user’s experience with the goal of developing emotionally intelligent A.I. systems that can start to navigate the complex fabric of human emotion during decision-making.

Keywords: decision support systems, explainable AI, HCAI techniques, affective-analytical decision framework

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Authors: H. Nikzad, S. Yoshitomi

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This paper presents the design application and reinforcement detailing of 15 storied reinforced concrete shear wall-frame structure based on linear static analysis. Databases are generated for section sizes based on automated structural optimization method utilizing Active-set Algorithm in MATLAB platform. The design constraints of allowable section sizes, capacity criteria and seismic provisions for static loads, combination of gravity and lateral loads are checked and determined based on ASCE 7-10 documents and ACI 318-14 design provision. The result of this study illustrates the efficiency of proposed method, and is expected to provide a useful reference in designing of RC shear wall-frame structures.

Keywords: design constraints, ETABS, linear static analysis, MATLAB, RC shear wall-frame structures, structural optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: Amir Alani, Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Anna Romanova, Asaad Faramarzi

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Pipelines are extensively used engineering structures which convey fluid from one place to another. Most of the time, pipelines are placed underground and are encumbered by soil weight and traffic loads. Corrosion of pipe material is the most common form of pipeline deterioration and should be considered in both the strength and serviceability analysis of pipes. The study in this research focuses on concrete pipes in sewage systems (concrete sewers). This research firstly investigates how to involve the effect of corrosion as a time dependent process of deterioration in the structural and failure analysis of this type of pipe. Then three probabilistic time dependent reliability analysis methods including the first passage probability theory, the gamma distributed degradation model and the Monte Carlo simulation technique are discussed and developed. Sensitivity analysis indexes which can be used to identify the most important parameters that affect pipe failure are also discussed. The reliability analysis methods developed in this paper contribute as rational tools for decision makers with regard to the strengthening and rehabilitation of existing pipelines. The results can be used to obtain a cost-effective strategy for the management of the sewer system.

Keywords: reliability analysis, service life prediction, Monte Carlo simulation method, first passage probability theory, gamma distributed degradation model

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Authors: O. J. Makinde, O. A. Abiola

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Background: Hazards and injuries are two common phenomena that have been associated with the building construction profession. Apart from injuries, deaths from injuries sustained at work have been high in this profession. This study, therefore, attempts to determine the attitude, practice, and prevalence of injuries among this group of workers. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study with 285 respondents. The sampling was multi-staged. Interviewer-administered questionnaires were used to elicit information such as socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents, attitude and practice of occupational safety and prevalence of injuries among the workers. The data were analyzed using epi-info 3.5.1 statistical software. Result: The modal age group is 25-34yrs which made up 40% of the respondents. Most of the respondents were male (86.3%). Most of the respondent (52.3%) have their highest educational level as the secondary school. Most of the respondents (64.9%) had a poor attitude to occupational safety while 91.6% had poor occupational safety practices. The prevalence of occupational injury was very high (64.9%). Particles in the eyes have the highest prevalence (52.3%) while electric shock has the least prevalence (19.6%).None of the respondent working at a height used safety belt while working. Conclusion: Attitude and practice of occupational safety are poor among this group of workers and prevalence of injuries was high.

Keywords: building, construction, Hazard, injury, workers

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Authors: Lucy H. Kaiser, Kate Boersen

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Kura Kaupapa Māori (kura) and bilingual schools are primary schools in Aotearoa/New Zealand which operate fully or partially under Māori custom and have curricula developed to include Te Reo Māori and Tikanga Māori (Māori language and cultural practices). These schools were established to support Māori children and their families through reinforcing cultural identity by enabling Māori language and culture to flourish in the field of education. Māori kaupapa (values), Mātauranga Māori (Māori knowledge) and Te Reo are crucial considerations for the development of educational resources developed for kura, bilingual and mainstream schools. The inclusion of hazard risk in education has become an important issue in New Zealand due to the vulnerability of communities to a plethora of different hazards. Māori have an extensive knowledge of their local area and the history of hazards which is often not appropriately recognised within mainstream hazard education resources. Researchers from the Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University and East Coast LAB (Life at the Boundary) in Napier were funded to collaboratively develop a toolkit of tsunami risk reduction activities with schools located in Hawke’s Bay’s tsunami evacuation zones. A Māori-led bicultural approach to developing and running the education activities was taken, focusing on creating culturally and locally relevant materials for students and schools as well as giving students a proactive role in making their communities better prepared for a tsunami event. The community-based participatory research is Māori-centred, framed by qualitative and Kaupapa Maori research methodologies and utilizes a range of data collection methods including interviews, focus groups and surveys. Māori participants, stakeholders and the researchers collaborated through the duration of the project to ensure the programme would align with the wider school curricula and kaupapa values. The education programme applied a tuakana/teina, Māori teaching and learning approach in which high school aged students (tuakana) developed tsunami preparedness activities to run with primary school students (teina). At the end of the education programme, high school students were asked to reflect on their participation, what they had learned and what they had enjoyed during the activities. This paper draws on lessons learned throughout this research project. As an exemplar, retaining a bicultural and bilingual perspective resulted in a more inclusive project as there was variability across the students’ levels of confidence using Te Reo and Māori knowledge and cultural frameworks. Providing a range of different learning and experiential activities including waiata (Māori songs), pūrākau (traditional stories) and games was important to ensure students had the opportunity to participate and contribute using a range of different approaches that were appropriate to their individual learning needs. Inclusion of teachers in facilitation also proved beneficial in assisting classroom behavioral management. Lessons were framed by the tikanga and kawa (protocols) of the school to maintain cultural safety for the researchers and the students. Finally, the tuakana/teina component of the education activities became the crux of the programme, demonstrating a path for Rangatahi to support their whānau and communities through facilitating disaster preparedness, risk reduction and resilience.

Keywords: school safety, indigenous, disaster preparedness, children, education, tsunami

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Authors: Mohammad Amin Tutunchian, Pedram Roshani, Reza Rezvani, Julio Ángel Infante Sedano

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The highly recommended approach to design, known as the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) method, employs the geotechnical resistance factor (GRF) for shaping pile foundation designs. Within the standard process for designing pile foundations, geotechnical engineers commonly adopt a design strategy rooted in saturated soil mechanics (SSM), often disregarding the impact of unsaturated soil behavior. This oversight within the design procedure leads to the omission of the enhancement in shear strength exhibited by unsaturated soils, resulting in a more cautious outcome in design results. This research endeavors to present a methodology for fine-tuning the GRF used for axially loaded driven piles in Winnipeg, Canada. This is achieved through the application of a well-established probabilistic approach known as the first-order second moment (FOSM) method while also accounting for the influence of unsaturated soil behavior. The findings of this study demonstrate that incorporating the influence of unsaturated conditions yields an elevation in projected bearing capacity and recommends higher GRF values in accordance with established codes. Additionally, a novel factor referred to as phy has been introduced to encompass the impact of saturation conditions in the calculation of pile bearing capacity, as guided by prevalent static analysis techniques.

Keywords: unsaturated soils, shear strength, LRFD, FOSM, GRF

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Authors: Jhuma Debnath, Hrishikesh Sharma

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The work done here in this paper is dedicated to studying the effect of high blast explosives over the seismically designed buildings. Buildings are seismically designed in SAP 2000 software to simulate seismic designs of buildings using response spectrum method. Later these buildings have been studied applying blast loads with the same amount of the blast explosives. This involved varying the standoff distances of the buildings from the blast explosion. The study found out that, for a seismically designed building, the minimum standoff distance is to be at least 120m from the place of explosion for an average blast explosive weight of 20kg TNT. This has shown that the building does not fail due to this huge explosive weight of TNT but resists immediate collapse of the building. The results also show that the adverse effect of the column failure due to blasting is reduced to 73.75% from 22.5% due to the increase of the standoff distance from the blast loads. The maximum affected locations due to the blast loads are also detected in this study.

Keywords: blast loads, seismically designed buildings, standoff distance, reinforced concrete buildings

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Authors: Sonia Machraoui, Salam Labidi, Karunakara Naregundi

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Environmental radiation measurements are useful to identify areas of potential natural radiation hazard particularly in areas of phosphate industries where enhanced radiation levels are expected to be present. Measurements of primordial radionuclides concentrations have been carried out in samples collected from Sfax City around the SIAPE phosphate industry of Tunis. The samples analysed include fish, beef meat, egg, and vegetables as well as in soil and grass. Measurements were performed by gamma spectrometry method using a 42% relative efficiency N-type HPGe detector. The activity concentrations of radionuclides were measured by gamma ray spectrometry. As expected, the concentrations of radionuclides belonging to uranium and thorium series were low in food materials. In all the samples analysed, the 137Cs concentration was below detection level, except meat samples which showed the activity concentration of 2.4 Bq kg-1 (dry wt.) The soil to grass transfer factor was found to be similar to those reported in literature. The effective dose to the population due to intake of food products were also estimated and are presented in this paper.

Keywords: effective doses, phosphate industry, transfer coefficients, Tunisia

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Authors: Greg Zimmerman

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Background: Major depression is a common illness that affects millions of people globally. It is the leading cause of disability and is projected to become the number one cause of the global burden of disease by 2030. Many of those who suffer from depression also suffer from Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS). Acupuncture has been shown to help depression. The aim of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of acupuncture in reducing the risk of IBS in patients with depression. Methods: We enrolled patients diagnosed with depression through the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). Propensity score matching was used to match equal numbers (n=32971) of the acupuncture cohort and no-acupuncture cohort based on characteristics including sex, age, baseline comorbidity, and medication. The Cox regression model was used to compare the hazard ratios (HRs) of IBS in the two cohorts. Results: The basic characteristics of the two groups were similar. The cumulative incidence of IBS was significantly lower in the acupuncture cohort than in the no-acupuncture cohort (Log-rank test, p<0.001). Conclusion: The results provided real-world evidence that acupuncture may have a beneficial effect on IBS risk reduction in patients with depression.

Keywords: acupuncture, depression, irritable bowel syndrome, national health insurance research database, real-world evidence

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Authors: Arturo Galvan, Jatziri Y. Moreno-Martinez, Daniel Arroyo-Montoya, Jose M. Gutierrez-Villalobos

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Bridges are one of the most seismically vulnerable structures on highway transportation systems. The general process for assessing the seismic vulnerability of a bridge involves the evaluation of its overall capacity and demand. One of the most common procedures to obtain this capacity is by means of pushover analysis of the structure. Typically, the bridge capacity is assessed using non-linear static methods or non-linear dynamic analyses. The non-linear dynamic approaches use step by step numerical solutions for assessing the capacity with the consuming computer time inconvenience. In this study, a nonlinear static analysis (‘pushover analysis’) was performed to predict the collapse mechanism of a typical bridge built in the central zone of Mexico (Celaya, Guanajuato). The bridge superstructure consists of three simple supported spans with a total length of 76 m: 22 m of the length of extreme spans and 32 m of length of the central span. The deck width is of 14 m and the concrete slab depth is of 18 cm. The bridge is built by means of frames of five piers with hollow box-shaped sections. The dimensions of these piers are 7.05 m height and 1.20 m diameter. The numerical model was created using a commercial software considering linear and non-linear elements. In all cases, the piers were represented by frame type elements with geometrical properties obtained from the structural project and construction drawings of the bridge. The deck was modeled with a mesh of rectangular thin shell (plate bending and stretching) finite elements. The moment-curvature analysis was performed for the sections of the piers of the bridge considering in each pier the effect of confined concrete and its reinforcing steel. In this way, plastic hinges were defined on the base of the piers to carry out the pushover analysis. In addition, time history analyses were performed using 19 accelerograms of real earthquakes that have been registered in Guanajuato. In this way, the displacements produced by the bridge were determined. Finally, pushover analysis was applied through the control of displacements in the piers to obtain the overall capacity of the bridge before the failure occurs. It was concluded that the lateral deformation of the piers due to a critical earthquake occurred in this zone is almost imperceptible due to the geometry and reinforcement demanded by the current design standards and compared to its displacement capacity, they were excessive. According to the analysis, it was found that the frames built with five piers increase the rigidity in the transverse direction of the bridge. Hence it is proposed to reduce these frames of five piers to three piers, maintaining the same geometrical characteristics and the same reinforcement in each pier. Also, the mechanical properties of materials (concrete and reinforcing steel) were maintained. Once a pushover analysis was performed considering this configuration, it was concluded that the bridge would continue having a “correct” seismic behavior, at least for the 19 accelerograms considered in this study. In this way, costs in material, construction, time and labor would be reduced in this study case.

Keywords: collapse mechanism, moment-curvature analysis, overall capacity, push-over analysis

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Authors: Jiri Barta

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At the present time, awareness, education, computer simulation and information systems protection are very serious and relevant topics. The article deals with perspectives and possibilities of implementation of emergence or natural hazard threats into the system which is developed for communication among members of crisis management staffs. The Czech Hydro-Meteorological Institute with its System of Integrated Warning Service resents the largest usable base of information. National information systems are connected to foreign systems, especially to flooding emergency systems of neighboring countries, systems of European Union and international organizations where the Czech Republic is a member. Use of outputs of particular information systems and computer simulations on a single communication interface of information system for communication among members of crisis management staff and setting the site interoperability in the net will lead to time savings in decision-making processes in solving extraordinary events and crisis situations. Faster managing of an extraordinary event or a crisis situation will bring positive effects and minimize the impact of negative effects on the environment.

Keywords: computer simulation, communication, continuity, critical infrastructure, information systems, safety

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Authors: Sungyani Tripathy, Atul Desai

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Turbo machinery Frame Foundation is very important for power generation, gas, steam, hydro, geothermal and nuclear power plants. The Turbo machinery Foundation system was simulated in SAP: 2000 software and dynamic response of foundation was analysed. In this paper, the detailed study of turbo machinery foundation with different running speed has considered. The different revolution per minute considered in this study is 4000 rpm, 6000 rpm, 8000 rpm, 1000 rpm and 12000 rpm. The above analysis has been carried out considering Winkler spring soil model, solid finite element modelling and dynamic analysis of Turbo machinery foundations. The comparison of frequency and time periods at various mode shapes are addressed in this study. Current work investigates the effect of damping on the response spectra curve at the foundation top deck, considering the dynamic machine load. It has been found that turbo generator foundation with haunches remains more elastic during seismic action for different running speeds.

Keywords: turbo machinery, SAP: 2000, response spectra, running speeds

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Authors: Ehsan Sadie

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Despite the experience of heavy losses and damages of recent earthquakes such as 8 km E of Pāhala, Hawaii, 11 km W of Salvaleón de Higüey, Dominican Republic and 49 km SSE of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic earthquakes, the possibility of large earthquakes in most populated areas of any country and the serious need for quality control in the design and implementation of buildings, not enough attention has been paid to the proper construction. Steel structures constitute a significant part of construction in any metropolitan area. This article gives a brief overview of the implementation status of these buildings in urban areas and considers the weaknesses of performance that typically occur due to negligence or insufficient mastery of the building supervisor in the principles of operation of earthquake-resistant buildings, and provides appropriate and possible solutions to improve the construction.

Keywords: bracing member, concentrated load, diaphragm system, earthquake engineering, load-bearing system, shear force, seismic retrofitting, steel building, strip foundation, supervising engineer, vulnerability of building

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Authors: Ufuk Aydın

Abstract:

The Coda attenuation and frequency dependency of seismic wave are strongly dependent on the effective stresses structures within the upper crust. In this study, the data of three different stations were used to examine the lateral variation of stress. The tectonic structures of these three areas have been examined comparatively using lateral coda tomography. In the study using the single scatter method, the window length selected to be 20 second. Coda values 80 with 94 and frequency dependency values obtained between 0.69 and 1.21. The 1/QC values for the three regions ranged from 0.0012 to 0.017, highlighting the regional differences in the seismotectonic activity of the crust. The lowest absorption values obtained from Erzurum station when the highest absorption values obtained at the Kemaliye station. The low Qc and high frequency dependency values obtained Kemaliye, which indicates that it has highest tectonic activity than other two regions. The seismo-dynamics data obtained from the study found to be in agreement with the tectonic structure of the region.

Keywords: regional coda attenuation, tectonic stress, crustal deformation

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Authors: Shishay T. Kidanu

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The study area is located in Southwestern Missouri and is mainly underlain by Mississippian Age limestone which is highly susceptible to karst processes. The area is known for the presence of various karst features like caves, springs and more importantly Sinkholes. Sinkholes are one of the most common karst features and the primary hazard in karst areas. Investigating the subsurface structure and development mechanism of existing sinkholes enables to understand their long-term impact and chance of reactivation and also helps to provide effective mitigation measures. In this study ERT (Electrical Resistivity Tomography), MASW (Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves) and borehole control data have been used to image the subsurface structure and investigate the development mechanism of a sinkhole in Southwestern Missouri. The study shows that the main process responsible for the development of the sinkhole is the downward piping of fine grained soils. Furthermore, the study reveals that the sinkhole developed along a north-south oriented vertical joint set characterized by a vertical zone of water seepage and associated fine grained soil piping into preexisting fractures.

Keywords: ERT, Karst, MASW, sinkhole

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Authors: Fatemah A. Alqallaf, Debasis Kundu

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The aim of this paper is to introduce a bivariate inverse generalized exponential distribution which has a singular component. The proposed bivariate distribution can be used when the marginals have heavy-tailed distributions, and they have non-monotone hazard functions. Due to the presence of the singular component, it can be used quite effectively when there are ties in the data. Since it has four parameters, it is a very flexible bivariate distribution, and it can be used quite effectively for analyzing various bivariate data sets. Several dependency properties and dependency measures have been obtained. The maximum likelihood estimators cannot be obtained in closed form, and it involves solving a four-dimensional optimization problem. To avoid that, we have proposed to use an EM algorithm, and it involves solving only one non-linear equation at each `E'-step. Hence, the implementation of the proposed EM algorithm is very straight forward in practice. Extensive simulation experiments and the analysis of one data set have been performed. We have observed that the proposed bivariate inverse generalized exponential distribution can be used for modeling dependent competing risks data. One data set has been analyzed to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Block and Basu bivariate distributions, competing risks, EM algorithm, Marshall-Olkin bivariate exponential distribution, maximum likelihood estimators

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Authors: P. Singh, S. Mittal

Abstract:

Stability of slope in Chamoli Distt. near River Alaknanda in Uttarakhand is essential to safeguard the infrastructure of the slope where a dam is proposed to be built near this slope. Every year the areas near the slope have been facing severe landslides (small or big) due to intensive precipitation inflicting substantial damages as per Geological Survey of India records. The stability analysis of the slope under static and pseudo static conditions are presented in this study by using FEM software PHASE2. As per the earthquake zonation map of India, the slope is found in zone V, and hence, pseudo static stability of slope has been performed considering pseudo static analysis. For analysing the slope Mohr-Coulomb shear strength criteria is adopted for soil material and self-drilling anchors are modelled as bolts with parameters like modulus of elasticity, diameter of anchors and peak pull-out resistance of the anchors with the soil present there. The slope is found to be unstable under pseudo static conditions with computed factor of safety= 0.93. Stability is provided to the slope by using Self Drilling Anchors (SDA) which gives factor of safety= 1.15 under pseudo static condition.

Keywords: FEM, pseudo static, self-drilling anchors, slope stability

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Authors: M. A. Lawal, A. Uzairu, M. S. Sallau

Abstract:

The presence and bioaccumulation of lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), and chromium (Cr) in blood, urine, nail, and hair samples of electronic repair technicians in Kaduna-Nigeria were assessed using Fast Sequential Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry. 10 electronic repair technicians from within Kaduna Metropolis volunteered for the pilot study. The mean blood concentrations of Pb, Cd, and Cr in the subjects were 29.33 ± 4.80, 7.78 ± 10.57, and 24.78 ± 21.77 µg/dL, respectively. The mean urine concentrations of Pb, Cd, and Cr were 24.18 ± 2.98, 6.81 ± 10.05, and 14.78 ± 14.20 µg/dL, respectively. Mean nail metal values of 37.13 ± 4.08, 1.00 ± 1.21, and 18.49 ± 12.71 µg/g were obtained for Pb, Cd, and Cr, respectively while mean hair metal values of 39.41 ± 5.63, 1.09 ± 1.14, and 19.13 ± 11.61 µg/g for Pb, Cd, and Cr, respectively. Positive Pearson correlation coefficients were observed between Pb/Cd, Pb/Cr, and Cd/Cr in all samples and they indicate the metals are likely from the same pollution source. The mean concentrations of the metals in all samples were higher than the WHO, ILO, and ACGIH standards, implying the repairers are likely occupationally exposed and are subject to serious health concerns. Social habits like smoking were found to significantly affect the concentrations of these metals. The level of education, use of safety devices, period of exposure, the nature of electronics and the age of the repairers were also found to remarkably affect the concentrations of the metals.

Keywords: bioaccumulation, electronic repair technicians, heavy metals, occupational hazard

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Authors: Feten Chihi, Gabriella Varga

Abstract:

The world's most prevalent waste management strategy is landfills. However, it grew more difficult due to a lack of acceptable waste sites. In order to develop larger landfills and extend their lifespan, the purpose of this article is to expand the capacity of the construction by varying the slope's inclination and to examine its effect on the safety factor. The capacity change with tilt is mathematically determined. Using a new probabilistic calculation method that takes into account the heterogeneity of waste layers, the safety factor for various slope angles is examined. To assess the effect of slope variation on the overall safety of landfills, over a hundred computations were performed for each angle. It has been shown that capacity increases significantly with increasing inclination. Passing from 1:3 to 2:3 slope angles and from 1:3 to 1:2 slope angles, the volume of garbage that can be deposited increases by 40 percent and 25 percent, respectively, of the initial volume. The results of the safety factor indicate that slopes of 1:3 and 1:2 are safe when the standard method (homogenous waste) is used for computation. Using the new approaches, a slope with an inclination of 2:3 can be deemed safe, despite the fact that the calculation does not account for the safety-enhancing effect of daily cover layers. Based on the study reported in this paper, the malty layered nonhomogeneous calculating technique better characterizes the safety factor. As it more closely resembles the actual state of landfills, the employed technique allows for more flexibility in design parameters. This work represents a substantial advance in limiting both safe and economical landfills.

Keywords: landfill, municipal solid waste, slope inclination, capacity, safety factor

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Authors: Dolgormaa Munkhbaatar, Munkhsaikhan Adiya, Tseedulam Khuut

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We performed an inversion method to determine the 1D-velocity model with station corrections of the Gobi-Altai area in the southern part of Mongolia using earthquake data collected in the National Data Center during the last 10 years. In this study, the concept of the new 1D model has been employed to minimize the average RMS of a set of well-located earthquakes, recorded at permanent (between 2006 and 2016) and temporary seismic stations (between 2014 and 2016), compute solutions for the coupled hypocenter and 1D velocity model. We selected 4800 events with RMS less than 0.5 seconds and with a maximum GAP of 170 degrees and determined velocity structures. Also, we relocated all possible events located in the Gobi-Altai area using the new 1D velocity model and achieved constrained hypocentral determinations for events within this area. We concluded that the estimated new 1D velocity model is a relatively low range compared to the previous velocity model in a significant improvement intend to, and the quality of the information basis for future research center locations to determine the earthquake epicenter area with this new transmission model.

Keywords: 1D velocity model, earthquake, relocation, Velest

Procedia PDF Downloads 168