Search results for: extreme rainfall events

Authors: Mamadou Diop, Florence Crick, Momadou Sow, Kate Elizabeth Gannon

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Understanding SME leaders’ responses to climate is essential to cope with ongoing changes in temperature and rainfall. This study analyzes the response of SME leaders to the adverse effects of climate change in semi-arid lands (SAL) in Senegal. Based on surveys administrated to 161 SME leaders, this research shows that 91% of economic units are affected by climatic conditions, although 70% do not have a plan to deal with climate risks. Economic actors have striven to take measures to adapt. However, their efforts are limited by various obstacles accentuated by a lack of support from public authorities. In doing so, substantial political, institutional and financial efforts at national and local levels are needed to promote an enabling environment for economic actors to adapt. This will focus on information and training about the threats and opportunities related to global warming, the creation of an adaptation support fund to support local initiatives and the improvement of the institutional, regulatory and political framework.

Keywords: small and medium-sized enterprises, climate change, adaptation, semi-arid lands

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Igor Svishchev, Kashif Choudhry

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Progress in advanced energy technologies is not feasible without understanding how engineering materials perform under extreme environmental conditions. The corrosion behaviour of Fe-Ni-Cr and Zr alloys has been systematically examined under high-temperature and supercritical water flow conditions. The changes in elemental release rate and dissolved gas concentration provide valuable insights into the mechanism of passivation by forming oxide films. A non-intrusive method for monitoring the extent of surface oxidation based on hydrogen release rate has been developed. This approach can be used for the on-line monitoring corrosion behavior of reactor materials without the need to interrupt the flow and remove corrosion coupons. Surface catalysed thermochemical reactions may generate sufficient hydrogen to have an effect on the accumulation of oxidizing species generated by radiolytic processes in the heat transport systems of the supercritical water cooled nuclear reactor.

Keywords: high-temperature corrosion, non-intrusive monitoring, reactor materials, supercritical water

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Authors: B. R. S. Babu, E. Prasad, P. V. Laveen, A. M. Vinodkumar

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Searching the “Island of stability” is a topic of extreme interest in theoretical as well as experimental modern physics today. This “island of stability” is spanned by superheavy elements (SHE's) that are produced in the laboratory. SHE's are believed to exist primarily due to the “magic” stabilizing effects of nuclear shell structure. SHE synthesis is extremely difficult due to their very low production cross section, often of the order of pico barns or less. Stabilizing effects of shell closures at proton number Z=82 and neutron number N=126 are predicted theoretically. Though stabilizing effects of Z=82 have been experimentally verified, no concluding observations have been made with N=126, so far. We measured and analyzed the total evaporation residue (ER) cross sections for a number of systems with neutron number around 126 to explore possible shell closure effects in ER cross sections, in this work.

Keywords: super heavy elements, fusion, evaporation residue, compund nucleus

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Authors: Pierre-Andre Mudry, Jean Decaix, Jeremy Schmid, Cesar Papilloud, Cecile Munch-Alligne

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In most of the Swiss Alpine regions, the availability of water resources is usually adequate even in times of drought, as evidenced by the 2003 and 2018 summers. Indeed, important natural stocks are for the moment available in the form of snow and ice, but the situation is likely to change in the future due to global and regional climate change. In addition, alpine mountain regions are areas where climate change will be felt very rapidly and with high intensity. For instance, the ice regime of these regions has already been affected in recent years with a modification of the monthly availability and extreme events of precipitations. The current research, focusing on the municipality of Val de Bagnes, located in the canton of Valais, Switzerland, is part of a project led by the Altis company and achieved in collaboration with WSL, BlueArk Entremont, and HES-SO Valais-Wallis. In this region, water occupies a key position notably for winter and summer tourism. Thus, multiple actors want to apprehend the future needs and availabilities of water, on both the 2050 and 2100 horizons, in order to plan the modifications to the water supply and distribution networks. For those changes to be salient and efficient, a good knowledge of the current water distribution networks is of most importance. In the current case, the water drinking network is well documented, but this is not the case for the irrigation one. Since the water consumption for irrigation is ten times higher than for drinking water, data acquisition on the irrigation network is a major point to determine future scenarios. This paper first presents the instrumentation and simulation of the irrigation network using custom-designed IoT devices, which are coupled with a digital clone simulated to reduce the number of measuring locations. The developed IoT ad-hoc devices are energy-autonomous and can measure flows and pressures using industrial sensors such as calorimetric water flow meters. Measurements are periodically transmitted using the LoRaWAN protocol over a dedicated infrastructure deployed in the municipality. The gathered values can then be visualized in real-time on a dashboard, which also provides historical data for analysis. In a second phase, a digital clone of the irrigation network was modeled using EPANET, a software for water distribution systems that performs extended-period simulations of flows and pressures in pressurized networks composed of reservoirs, pipes, junctions, and sinks. As a preliminary work, only a part of the irrigation network was modelled and validated by comparisons with the measurements. The simulations are carried out by imposing the consumption of water at several locations. The validation is performed by comparing the simulated pressures are different nodes with the measured ones. An accuracy of +/- 15% is observed on most of the nodes, which is acceptable for the operator of the network and demonstrates the validity of the approach. Future steps will focus on the deployment of the measurement devices on the whole network and the complete modelling of the network. Then, scenarios of future consumption will be investigated. Acknowledgment— The authors would like to thank the Swiss Federal Office for Environment (FOEN), the Swiss Federal Office for Agriculture (OFAG) for their financial supports, and ALTIS for the technical support, this project being part of the Swiss Pilot program 'Adaptation aux changements climatiques'.

Keywords: hydraulic digital clone, IoT water monitoring, LoRaWAN water measurements, EPANET, irrigation network

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: D. Benatiallah, A. Benatiallah, K. Bouchouicha, A. Harouz

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The development and operation of renewable energy known an important development in the world with significant growth potential. Estimate the solar radiation on terrestrial geographic locality is of extreme importance, firstly to choose the appropriate site where to place solar systems (solar power plants for electricity generation, for example) and also for the design and performance analysis of any system using solar energy. In addition, solar radiation measurements are limited to a few areas only in Algeria. Thus, we use theoretical approaches to assess the solar radiation on a given location. The Adrar region is one of the most favorable sites for solar energy use with a medium flow that exceeds 7 kWh / m2 / d and saddle of over 3500 hours per year. Our goal in this work focuses on the creation of a data bank for the given data in the energy field of the Adrar region for the period of the year and the month then the integration of these data into a geographic Information System (GIS) to estimate the solar flux on a location on the map.

Keywords: Adrar, flow, GIS, deposit potential

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Authors: Juergen Junk, Franz Ronellenfitsch, Michael Eickermann

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An appropriate weed management in autumn is a prerequisite for an economically successful harvest in the following year. In Luxembourg oilseed rape, wheat and barley is sown from August until October, accompanied by a chemical weed control with soil active herbicides, depending on the state of the weeds and the meteorological conditions. Based on regular ground and surface water-analysis, high levels of contamination by transformation products of respective herbicide compounds have been found in Luxembourg. The most ideal conditions for incorporating soil active herbicides are single rain events. Weed control may be reduced if application is made when weeds are under drought stress or if repeated light rain events followed by dry spells, because the herbicides tend to bind tightly to the soil particles. These effects have been frequently reported for Luxembourg throughout the last years. In the framework of a multisite long-term field experiment (EFFO) weed monitoring, plants observations and corresponding meteorological measurements were conducted. Long-term time series (1947-2016) from the SYNOP station Findel-Airport (WMO ID = 06590) showed a decrease in the number of days with precipitation. As the total precipitation amount has not significantly changed, this indicates a trend towards rain events with higher intensity. All analyses are based on decades (10-day periods) for September and October of each individual year. To assess the future meteorological conditions for Luxembourg, two different approaches were applied. First, multi-model ensembles from the CORDEX experiments (spatial resolution ~12.5 km; transient projections until 2100) were analysed for two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5), covering the time span from 2005 until 2100. The multi-model ensemble approach allows for the quantification of the uncertainties and also to assess the differences between the two emission scenarios. Second, to assess smaller scale differences within the country a high resolution model projection using the COSMO-LM model was used (spatial resolution 1.3 km). To account for the higher computational demands, caused by the increased spatial resolution, only 10-year time slices have been simulated (reference period 1991-2000; near future 2041-2050 and far future 2091-2100). Statistically significant trends towards higher air temperatures, +1.6 K for September (+5.3 K far future) and +1.3 K for October (+4.3 K), were predicted for the near future compared to the reference period. Precipitation simultaneously decreased by 9.4 mm (September) and 5.0 mm (October) for the near future and -49 mm (September) and -10 mm (October) in the far future. Beside the monthly values also decades were analyzed for the two future time periods of the CLM model. For all decades of September and October the number of days with precipitation decreased for the projected near and far future. Changes in meteorological variables such as air temperature and precipitation did already induce transformations in weed societies (composition, late-emerging etc.) of arable ecosystems in Europe. Therefore, adaptations of agronomic practices as well as effective weed control strategies must be developed to maintain crop yield.

Keywords: CORDEX projections, dry spells, ensembles, weed management

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Authors: Pager Mansaram Pandit

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The present paper aims to changing trends of population in Nashik district. The spatial variation of changing trends of population from 1901 to 2011. Nasik, lying between 19° 33’ and 20° 53’ north latitude and 73° 16’ and 75° 16’, with an area of 15530 Sq. K.M.North South length is 120 km. East West length is 200 km. Nashik has a population of 6,109,052 of which 3,164,261 are males and 2,944,791 and females. Average literacy rate of Nashik district in 2011 was 82.91 compared to 80.96 in 2001. In 1901 the density was 52 and in 2011 the density was 393 per sq. km. The progressive growth rate from 1901 to 2012 was 11.25 to 642.22 percent, respectively. The population trend is calculated with the help of time series. In 1901 population was 45.44% more and less in 1941 i.e. -13.86. From 1921 to 1981 the population was below the population trend but after 1991 population it gradually increased. The average rainfall it receives is 1034 mm. In the present times, because of advances in good climate, industrialization, development of road, University level educational facilities, religious importance, cargo services, good quality of grapes, pomegranates and onions, more and more people are being attracted towards Nashik districts. Another cause for the increase in the population is the main attraction of Ramkund, Muktidham Temple, Kalaram Temple, Coin Museum, and Trimbakeshwar.

Keywords: density, growth, population, population trend

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Authors: Anna Sikharulidze, Gia Sirbiladze

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For the evaluation of unreliability levels of movement on the closed routes in the vehicle routing problem, the fuzzy operators family is constructed. The interactions between routing factors in extreme conditions on the roads are considered. A multi-criteria decision-making model (MCDM) is constructed. Constructed aggregations are based on the Choquet integral and the associated probability class of a fuzzy measure. Propositions on the correctness of the extension are proved. Connections between the operators and the compositions of dual triangular norms are described. The conjugate connections between the constructed operators are shown. Operators reflect interactions among all the combinations of the factors in the fuzzy MCDM process. Several variants of constructed operators are used in the decision-making problem regarding the assessment of unreliability and possibility levels of movement on closed routes.

Keywords: vehicle routing problem, associated probabilities of a fuzzy measure, choquet integral, fuzzy aggregation operator

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Authors: Christian N. Chibo

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Imo River Basin is located in South Eastern Nigeria comprising of 11 states of Imo, Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, Edo, Rivers, Cross river, AkwaIbom, Bayelsa, Delta, and Bayelsa states. The basin has a fluvial erosional system dominated by powerful rivers coming down from steep slopes in the area. This research investigated various hazards associated with flood, the vulnerable areas, elements at risk of flood and various adaptation strategies adopted by local inhabitants to cope with the hazards. The research aim is to identify, examine and assess flood hazards, vulnerability and adaptations in the Upper Imo River Basin. The study identified the role of elevation in cause of flood, elements at risk of flood as well as examine the effectiveness or otherwise of the adaptation strategies for coping with the hazards. Data for this research is grouped as primary and secondary. Their various methods of generation are field measurement, questionnaire, library websites etc. Other types of data were generated from topographical, geological, and Digital Elevation model (DEM) maps, while the hydro meteorological data was sourced from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Meteorological stations of Geography and Environmental Management Departments of Imo State University and Alvan Ikoku Federal College of Education. 800 copies of questionnaire were distributed using systematic sampling to 8 locations used for the pilot survey. About 96% of the questionnaire were retrieved and used for the study. 13 flood events were identified in the study area. Their causes, years and dates of events were documented in the text, and the damages they caused were evaluated. The study established that for each flood event, there is over 200mm of rain observed on the day of the flood and the day before the flood. The study also observed that the areas that situate at higher elevation (See DEM) are less prone to flood hazards while areas at low elevations are more prone to flood hazards. Elements identified to be at risk of flood are agricultural land, residential dwellings, retail trading and related services, public buildings and community services. The study thereby recommends non settlement at flood plains and flood prone areas and rearrangement of land use activities in the upper Imo River Basin among others

Keywords: flood hazard, flood plain, geomorphology, Imo River Basin

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Authors: Raquel Salazar Moreno, Uwe Schmidt, Efrén Fitz Rodríguez, Dennis Dannehl, Abraham Rojano Aguilar, Irineo López Cruz, Gilberto Navas Gómez

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As urban areas expand, strategic and protected water reserves become more critical. In this study we investigate the water problems in Mexico City and its Metropolitan area. This region faces a complex water problem that concerns not only Mexican boundaries but also international level because is one of the biggest human concentrations in the World. The current water shortage situation raises the necessity of importing surface and groundwater from the Cutzamala River and from the Alto Rio Lerma System respectively. Water management is the real issue in this region, because waste water generation is more than aquifer overexploitation, and surface water loss in the rainfall period is greater than water imported from other regions. However, the possible solutions of the water supply schemes are complicated, there is a need to look for alternatives socially acceptable and environmentally desirable, considering first the possible solutions on the demand side. Also, it is necessary more investment in water treatment plants and hydraulic infrastructure to ensure water supply and decrease the environmental problems in the area. More studies need to be done related to water efficiency in the three sectors.

Keywords: megacities, aquifer overexploitation, environmental problems, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: Marko Jankovic, Aleksandra Knezevic, Maja Cupic, Dragana Vujic, Zeljko Zecevic, Borko Gobeljic, Marija Simic, Tanja Jovanovic

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The human cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a notorious pathogen in the pediatric transplant setting. Although studies on factors in complicity with CMV infection abound, the role of age, gender, allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (alloHSCT) modality, and underlying disease as regards CMV infection and viral load in children are poorly explored. We examined the significance of various factors related to the risk of CMV infection and viral load in Serbian children and adolescents undergoing alloHSCT. This was a prospective single centre study of thirty two pediatric patients in receipt of alloHSCT for various malignant and non-malignant disorders. Screening for active viral infection was performed by regular weekly monitoring. The Real-Time PCR method was used for CMV DNA detection and quantitation. Statistical analysis was performed using the IBM SPSS Statistics v20 software. Chi-square test was used to evaluate categorical variables. Comparison between scalar and nominal data was done by Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test. Pearson correlation was applied for studying the association between patient age and viral load. CMV was detected in 23 (71.9%) patients. Infection occurred significantly more often (p=0.015) in patients with haploidentical donors. The opposite was noted for matched sibling grafts (p=0.006). The viral load was higher in females (p=0.041) and children in the aftermath of alloHSCT with malignant diseases (p=0.019). There was no significant relationship between the viral infection dynamics and overt medical consequences. This is the first study of risk factors for CMV infection in Serbian pediatric alloHSCT patients. Transplanted patients presented with a high incidence of CMV viremia. The HLA compatibility of donated graft is associated with the frequency of CMV positive events. Age, gender, underlying disease, and medically relevant events were not conducive to occurrences of viremia. Notably, substantial viral burdens were evidenced in females and patients with neoplastic diseases. Studies comprising larger populations are clearly needed to scrutinize current results.

Keywords: allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, children, cytomegalovirus, risk factors, viral load

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Salman Khokhar

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The geopolitical landscape in Pakistan has become shrouded with suspicion between the state and the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community. The study argues that the social mobility of the community has become severely compromised, especially after the inception of the blasphemy laws and their subsequent enhancements in later years. The securitization of the community has ensured that the daily lives of Ahmadi Muslims have become severely restricted as their integration and assimilation into society become defined through their religious identity and beliefs. Consequently, performing congregational prayers or engaging in any other community activity is carried out secretly as the repercussions of such actions may lead to incarceration or, in some cases, even more extreme apprehension measures. The securitization of Ahmadis, and their daily lives are severely curtailed in Pakistan; however, due to transnational approaches, the community must implement specific measures to ensure the safety of its members, even in the West. The eyes of suspicion are always on the activities of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community, and the community’s headquarters in Rabwah is always being viewed with suspicious lenses. The study considers how secrecy has enveloped the everyday life of the Ahmadi Muslim community and how it embodies characteristics which we thought had come to an end many years ago.

Keywords: freedom, ideology, Islam, persecution

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Authors: Maryna Barushka, Aleh Meshyk

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The research analyzes absolute maximum soil temperatures registered at 36 gauge stations in Belarus from 1950 to 2013. The main method applied in the research is cartographic, in particular, trend surface analysis. Warming that had never been so long and intensive before started in 1988. The average temperature in January and February of that year exceeded the norm by 7-7.5 С, in March and April by 3-5С. In general, that year, as well as the year of 2008, happened to be the hottest ones in the whole period of instrumental observation. Yearly average air temperature in Belarus in those years was +8.0-8.2 С, which exceeded the norm by 2.0 – 2.2 С. The warming has been observed so far. The only exception was in 1996 when the yearly average air temperature in Belarus was below normal by 0.5 С. In Belarus the value of trend line of standard temperature deviation in the warmest months (July-August) has been positive for the past 25 years. In 2010 absolute maximum air and soil temperature exceeded the norm at 15 gauge stations in Belarus. The structure of natural processes includes global, regional, and local constituents. Trend surface analysis of the investigated characteristics makes it possible to determine global, regional, and local components. Linear trend surface shows the occurrence of weather deviations on a global scale, outside Belarus. Maximum soil temperature appears to be growing in the south-west direction with the gradient of 5.0 С. It is explained by the latitude factor. Polynomial trend surfaces show regional peculiarities of Belarus. Extreme temperature regime is formed due to some factors. The prevailing one is advection of turbulent flow of the ground layer of the atmosphere. In summer influence of the Azores High producing anticyclones is great. The Gulf Stream current forms the values of temperature trends in a year period. The most intensive flow of the Gulf Stream in the second half of winter and the second half of summer coincides with the periods of maximum temperature trends in Belarus. It is possible to estimate a local component of weather deviations in the analysis of the difference in values of the investigated characteristics and their trend surfaces. Maximum positive deviation (up to +4 С) of averaged soil temperature corresponds to the flat terrain in Pripyat Polesie, Brest Polesie, and Belarusian Poozerie Area. Negative differences correspond to the higher relief which partially compensates extreme heat regime of soils. Another important factor for maximum soil temperature in these areas is peat-bog soils with the least albedo of 8-15%. As yearly maximum soil temperature reaches 40-60 С, this could be both negative and positive factors for Belarus’s environment and economy. High temperature causes droughts resulting in crops dying and soil blowing. On the other hand, vegetation period has lengthened thanks to bigger heat resources, which allows planting such heat-loving crops as melons and grapes with appropriate irrigation. Thus, trend surface analysis allows determining global, regional, and local factors in accumulating heat in the soils of Belarus.

Keywords: soil, temperature, trend surface analysis, warming

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Authors: Elena Sherstoboeva, Elena Karzanova

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This paper explores the impact of the annexation of Crimea on the regulation of live performances and tour management of Russian pop music performers in Ukraine and of Ukrainian performers in Russia. Without a doubt, the cultural relationship between Russia and Ukraine is not limited to this issue. Yet concert markets tend to respond particularly rapidly to political, economic, and social changes, especially in Russia and Ukraine, where the high level of digital piracy means that the music businesses mainly depend upon income from performances rather than from digital rights sales. This paper argues that the rules formed in both countries after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 have contributed to the separation of a single cultural space that had existed in Soviet and Post-Soviet Russia and Ukraine before the annexation. These rules have also facilitated performers’ self-censorship and increased the politicisation of the music businesses in the two neighbouring countries. This study applies a comparative socio-legal approach to study Russian and Ukrainian live events and tour regulation. A qualitative analysis of Russian and Ukrainian national and intergovernmental legal frameworks is applied to examine formal regulations. Soviet and early post-Soviet laws and policies are also studied, but only to the extent that they help to track the changes in the Russian–Ukrainian cultural relationship. To identify and analyse the current informal rules, the study design includes in-depth semi-structured interviews with 30 live event or tour managers working in Russia and Ukraine. A case study is used to examine how the Eurovision Song Contest, an annual international competition, has played out within the Russian–Ukrainian conflict. The study suggests that modern Russian and Ukrainian frameworks for live events and tours have developed Soviet regulatory traditions when cultural policies served as a means of ideological control. At the same time, contemporary regulations mark a considerable perspective shift, as the previous rules have been aimed at maintaining close cultural connections between the Russian and Ukrainian nations. Instead of collaboration, their current frameworks mostly serve as forms of repression, implying that performers must choose only one national market in which to work. The regulatory instruments vary and often impose limitations that typically exist in non-democratic regimes to restrict foreign journalism, such as visa barriers or bans on entry. The more unexpected finding is that, in comparison with Russian law, Ukrainian regulations have created more obstacles to the organisation of live tours and performances by Russian artists in Ukraine. Yet this stems from commercial rather than political factors. This study predicts that the more economic challenges the Russian or Ukrainian music businesses face, the harsher the regulations will be regarding the organisation of live events or tours in the other country. This study recommends that international human rights organisations and non-governmental organisations develop and promote specific standards for artistic rights and freedoms, given the negative effects of the increasing politicisation of the entertainment business and cultural spheres to freedom of expression and cultural rights and pluralism.

Keywords: annexation of Crimea, artistic freedom, censorship, cultural policy

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Authors: Laxmi Prasad Bhattarai

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Climate change is regarded as one of the most fundamental threats to sustainable livelihood and global development. There is a growing global concern in linking community-managed forests as potential climate change mitigation projects. This study was conducted to explore local people’s perception on climate change and the role of community forestry (CF) to combat climate change impacts. Two active community forest user groups (CFUGs) from Kaski and Syangja Districts in Nepal were selected as study sites, and various participatory tools were applied to collect primary data. Although most of the respondents were unaware about the words “Climate Change” in study sites, they were quite familiar with the irregularities in rainfall season and other weather extremities. 60% of the respondents had the idea that, due to increase in precipitation, there is a frequent occurrence of erosion, floods, and landslide. Around 85% of the people agreed that community forests help in stabilizing soil, reducing the natural hazards like erosion, landslide. Biogas as an alternative source of cooking energy, and changes in crops and their varieties are the common adaptation measures that local people start practicing in both CFUGs in Nepal.

Keywords: community forestry, climate change, global warming, adaptation, Nepal

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Authors: K. Tunde Olagunju, C. Scott Allen, Freek Van Der Meer

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Identification of hydrocarbon oil in remote sensing images is often the first step in monitoring oil during spill events. Most remote sensing methods adopt techniques for hydrocarbon identification to achieve detection in order to model an appropriate cleanup program. Identification on optical sensors does not only allow for detection but also for characterization and quantification. Until recently, in optical remote sensing, quantification and characterization are only potentially possible using high-resolution laboratory and airborne imaging spectrometers (hyperspectral data). Unlike multispectral, hyperspectral data are not freely available, as this data category is mainly obtained via airborne survey at present. In this research, two (2) operational high-resolution multispectral satellites (WorldView-3 and Sentinel-2) are theoretically assessed for their suitability for hydrocarbon characterization, using the hydrocarbon spectral slope model (HYSS). This method utilized the two most persistent hydrocarbon diagnostic/absorption features at 1.73 µm and 2.30 µm for hydrocarbon mapping on multispectral data. In this research, spectra measurement of seven (7) different hydrocarbon oils (crude and refined oil) taken on ten (10) different substrates with the use of laboratory ASD Fieldspec were convolved to Sentinel-2 and WorldView-3 resolution, using their full width half maximum (FWHM) parameter. The resulting hydrocarbon slope values obtained from the studied samples enable clear qualitative discrimination of most hydrocarbons, despite the presence of different background substrates, particularly on WorldView-3. Due to close conformity of central wavelengths and narrow bandwidths to key hydrocarbon bands used in HYSS, the statistical significance for qualitative analysis on WorldView-3 sensors for all studied hydrocarbon oil returned with 95% confidence level (P-value ˂ 0.01), except for Diesel. Using multifactor analysis of variance (MANOVA), the discriminating power of HYSS is statistically significant for most hydrocarbon-substrate combinations on Sentinel-2 and WorldView-3 FWHM, revealing the potential of these two operational multispectral sensors as rapid response tools for hydrocarbon mapping. One notable exception is highly transmissive hydrocarbons on Sentinel-2 data due to the non-conformity of spectral bands with key hydrocarbon absorptions and the relatively coarse bandwidth (> 100 nm).

Keywords: hydrocarbon, oil spill, remote sensing, hyperspectral, multispectral, hydrocarbon-substrate combination, Sentinel-2, WorldView-3

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Authors: An-Jui. Li, Kelvin Lim, Chien-Kuo Chiu, Benson Hsiung

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This paper details the utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in the field of slope stability whereby quick and convenient solutions can be obtained using the developed tool. The AI tool used in this study is the artificial neural network (ANN), while the slope stability analysis methods are the finite element limit analysis methods. The developed tool allows for the prompt prediction of the safety factors of fill slopes and their corresponding probability of failure (depending on the degree of variation of the soil parameters), which can give the practicing engineer a reasonable basis in their decision making. In fact, the successful use of the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) algorithm shows that slope stability analysis is no longer confined to the conventional methods of modeling, which at times may be tedious and repetitive during the preliminary design stage where the focus is more on cost saving options rather than detailed design. Therefore, similar ANN-based tools can be further developed to assist engineers in this aspect.

Keywords: landslide, limit analysis, artificial neural network, soil properties

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Authors: Kuen-Ming Shu, Jyun-Wei Chen

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Encapsulated O-rings are specifically designed to address the problem of sealing the most hostile chemicals and extreme temperature applications. Ultrasonic vibration hot embossing and ultrasonic welding techniques provide a fast and reliable method to fabricate encapsulated O-ring. This paper performs the design and analysis method of the acoustic horns with double extrusion to process tube double side flange simultaneously. The paper deals with study through Finite Element Method (FEM) of ultrasonic stepped horn used to process a capsulated O-ring, the theoretical dimensions of horns, and their natural frequencies and amplitudes are obtained through the simulations of COMOSOL software. Furthermore, real horns were fabricated, tested and verified to proof the practical utility of these horns.

Keywords: encapsulated O-rings, ultrasonic vibration hot embossing, flange making, acoustic horn, finite element analysis

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Authors: Yuanjin Liu

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Retirement withdrawal strategies are very important to minimize the probability of ruin in retirement. The ruin probability is modeled as a function of initial withdrawal age, gender, asset allocation, inflation rate, and initial withdrawal rate. The ruin probability is obtained based on the 2019 period life table for the Social Security, IRS Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Worksheets, US historical bond and equity returns, and inflation rates using simulation. Several popular machine learning algorithms of the generalized additive model, random forest, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural network are built. The model validation and selection are based on the test errors using hyperparameter tuning and train-test split. The optimal model is recommended for retirees to monitor the ruin probability. The optimal withdrawal strategy can be obtained based on the optimal predictive model.

Keywords: ruin probability, retirement withdrawal strategies, predictive models, optimal model

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Authors: Jin Gao, Jin Zhang, Xiaogang Li

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Outdoor exposure experiments were conducted in three extreme environments, namely the Chinese plateau mountain environment (Lhasa), the cold–temperate environment (Mohe), and the marine atmospheric environment (Wanning), to track a new long-life environment-friendly polyurethane coating. The relationship between apparent properties, namely gloss and microstructural changes, was analyzed, and the influence of typical climatic environment on the aging mechanism of polyurethane coatings was discussed. Results show that the UV radiation in the Lhasa area causes photoaging degradation, micropores are formed on the coating surface, and the powdering phenomenon is obvious. Photodegradation occurs in the Wanning area, and a hydrolysis reaction is observed. The hydrolysis reaction catalyzes the photoaging, the coating surface becomes yellow, and the powdering becomes serious. Photoaging is also present in the Mohe area, but it is mainly due to temperature changes that in turn change the internal stress of the coating. Microcracks and bumps form on the coating surface.

Keywords: aging, atmospheric environment, outdoor exposure, polyurethane coating

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Authors: Alexis Grandcoin, Stephanie Piel, Estelle Baures

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Brittany (France) is an agricultural region, where emerging pollutants are highly at risk to reach water bodies. Among them, pesticides metabolites are frequently detected in surface waters. The Vilaine watershed (11 000 km²) is of great interest, as a large drinking water treatment plant (100 000 m³/day) is located at the extreme downstream of it. This study aims to provide an evaluation of the pesticides metabolites pollution in the Vilaine watershed, and an understanding of their availability, in order to protect the water resource. Hydroclimatic conditions, land use, and water quality parameters controlling metabolites availability are emphasized. Later this knowledge will be used to understand the favoring conditions resulting in metabolites export towards surface water. 19 sampling points have been strategically chosen along the 220 km of the Vilaine river and its 3 main influents. Furthermore, the intakes of two drinking water plants have been sampled, one is located at the extreme downstream of the Vilaine river and the other is the riparian groundwater under the Vilaine river. 5 sampling campaigns with various hydroclimatic conditions have been carried out. Water quality parameters and hydroclimatic conditions have been measured. 15 environmentally relevant pesticides and metabolites have been analyzed. Also, these compounds are recalcitrant to classic water treatment that is why they have been selected. An evaluation of the watershed contamination has been done in 2016-2017. First observations showed that aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) and metolachlor ethanesulfonic acid (MESA) are the most detected compounds in surface waters samples with 100 % and 98 % frequency of detection respectively. They are the main pollutants of the watershed regardless of the hydroclimatic conditions. AMPA concentration in the river strongly increases downstream of Rennes agglomeration (220k inhabitants) and reaches a maximum of 2.3 µg/l in low waters conditions. Groundwater contains mainly MESA, Diuron and metazachlor ESA at concentrations close to limits of quantification (LOQ) (0.02 µg/L). Metolachlor, metazachlor and alachlor due to their fast degradation in soils were found in small amounts (LOQ – 0.2 µg/L). Conversely glyphosate was regularly found during warm and sunny periods up to 0.6 µg/L. Soil uses (agricultural cultures types, urban areas, forests, wastewater treatment plants implementation), water quality parameters, and hydroclimatic conditions have been correlated to pesticides and metabolites concentration in waters. Statistical treatments showed that chloroacetamides metabolites and AMPA behave differently regardless of the hydroclimatic conditions. Chloroacetamides are correlated to each other, to agricultural areas and to typical agricultural tracers as nitrates. They are present in waters the whole year, especially during rainy periods, suggesting important stocks in soils. Also Chloroacetamides are negatively correlated with AMPA, the different forms of phosphorus, and organic matter. AMPA is ubiquitous but strongly correlated with urban areas despite the recent French regulation, restricting glyphosate to agricultural and private uses. This work helps to predict and understand metabolites present in the water resource used to craft drinking water. As the studied metabolites are difficult to remove, this project will be completed by a water treatment part.

Keywords: agricultural watershed, AMPA, metolachlor-ESA, water resource

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Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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Authors: Zenaida Chitu, Roxana Bojariu, Liliana Velea, Roxana Burcea

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A number of studies show that extreme air temperature affects mortality related to cardiovascular diseases, particularly among elderly people. In Romania, the summer thermal discomfort expressed by Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) is highest in the Southern part of the country, where Bucharest, the largest Romanian urban agglomeration, is also located. The urban characteristics such as high building density and reduced green areas enhance the increase of the air temperature during summer. In Bucharest, as in many other large cities, the effect of heat urban island is present and determines an increase of air temperature compared to surrounding areas. This increase is particularly important during heat wave periods in summer. In this context, the researchers performed a temperature-mortality analysis based on daily deaths related to cardiovascular diseases, recorded between 2010 and 2019 in Bucharest. The temperature-mortality relationship was modeled by applying distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) that includes a bi-dimensional cross-basis function and flexible natural cubic spline functions with three internal knots in the 10th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the temperature distribution, for modelling both exposure-response and lagged-response dimensions. Firstly, this study applied this analysis for the present climate. Extrapolation of the exposure-response associations beyond the observed data allowed us to estimate future effects on mortality due to temperature changes under climate change scenarios and specific assumptions. We used future projections of air temperature from five numerical experiments with regional climate models included in the EURO-CORDEX initiative under the relatively moderate (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) concentration scenarios. The results of this analysis show for RCP 8.5 an ensemble-averaged increase with 6.1% of heat-attributable mortality fraction in future in comparison with present climate (2090-2100 vs. 2010-219), corresponding to an increase of 640 deaths/year, while mortality fraction due to the cold conditions will be reduced by 2.76%, corresponding to a decrease by 288 deaths/year. When mortality data is stratified according to the age, the ensemble-averaged increase of heat-attributable mortality fraction for elderly people (> 75 years) in the future is even higher (6.5 %). These findings reveal the necessity to carefully plan urban development in Bucharest to face the public health challenges raised by the climate change. Paper Details: This work is financed by the project URCLIM which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by Ministry of Environment, Romania with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462). A part of this work performed by one of the authors has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme from the project EXHAUSTION under grant agreement No 820655.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, climate change, extreme air temperature, mortality

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Authors: Josué Alfredo Tomas Machaca Fajardo, Jhon Elvis Chahua Janampa, Pedro Rau Lavado

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A flood vulnerability index was developed for the Piura River watershed in northern Peru using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to assess flood risk. The official methodology to assess risk from natural hazards in Peru was introduced in 1980 and proved effective for aiding complex decision-making. This method relies in part on decision-makers defining subjective correlations between variables to identify high-risk areas. While risk identification and ensuing response activities benefit from a qualitative understanding of influences, this method does not take advantage of the advent of national and international data collection efforts, which can supplement our understanding of risk. Furthermore, this method does not take advantage of broadly applied statistical methods such as PCA, which highlight central indicators of vulnerability. Nowadays, information processing is much faster and allows for more objective decision-making tools, such as PCA. The approach presented here develops a tool to improve the current flood risk assessment in the Peruvian basin. Hence, the spatial analysis of the census and other datasets provides a better understanding of the current land occupation and a basin-wide distribution of services and human populations, a necessary step toward ultimately reducing flood risk in Peru. PCA allows the simplification of a large number of variables into a few factors regarding social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. There is a correlation between the location of people and the water availability mainly found in rivers. For this reason, a comprehensive vision of the population location around the river basin is necessary to establish flood prevention policies. The grouping of 5x5 km gridded areas allows the spatial analysis of flood risk rather than assessing political divisions of the territory. The index was applied to the Peruvian region of Piura, where several flood events occurred in recent past years, being one of the most affected regions during the ENSO events in Peru. The analysis evidenced inequalities for the access to basic services, such as water, electricity, internet and sewage, between rural and urban areas.

Keywords: assess risk, flood risk, indicators of vulnerability, principal component analysis

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Authors: Ita Noh Nkwain

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Journalism plays a critical role in today's society by providing accurate and reliable information to the public. Through various mediums such as print, television, and online news outlets, journalists inform and educate the public on important issues and events happening around the world. Additionally, journalism serves as a watchdog by holding those in power accountable for their actions and decisions. However, with the rise of social media and the decline of traditional news sources, the future of journalism is uncertain. Despite these challenges, the importance of quality journalism cannot be overstated in a world where information is readily available but not always trustworthy.

Keywords: journalism, accountability, education, television, public

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Authors: Ita Noh Nkwain

Abstract:

Journalism plays a critical role in today's society by providing accurate and reliable information to the public. Through various mediums such as print, television, and online news outlets, journalists inform and educate the public on important issues and events happening around the world. Additionally, journalism serves as a watchdog by holding those in power accountable for their actions and decisions. However, with the rise of social media and the decline of traditional news sources, the future of journalism is uncertain. Despite these challenges, the importance of quality journalism cannot be overstated in a world where information is readily available but not always trustworthy.

Keywords: Journalism, accountability, education, television, public

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Authors: Won Taek Oh, Adin Richard

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Workers are often required to enter unsupported trenches during the construction process, which may present serious risks. Trench failures can result in death or damage to adjacent properties, therefore trenches should be excavated with extreme precaution. Excavation work is often done in unsaturated soils, where the critical height (i.e. maximum depth that can be excavated without failure) of unsupported trenches can be more reliably estimated by considering the influence of matric suction. In this study, coupled stress/pore-water pressure analyses are conducted to investigate the critical height of sloped unsupported trenches considering the influence of pore-water pressure redistribution caused by excavating. Four different wall slopes (1.5V:1H, 2V:1H, 3V:1H, and 90°) and a vertical trench with the top 0.3 m sloped 1:1 were considered in the analyses with multiple depths of the ground water table in a sand. For comparison, the critical heights were also estimated using the limit equilibrium method for the same excavation scenarios used in the coupled analyses.

Keywords: critical height, matric suction, unsaturated soil, unsupported trench

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Authors: L. Rashidian, M. Rajabali

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Climate changes have unpredictable and costly effects on water resources of various basins. The impact of atmospheric phenomena on human life and the environment is so significant that only knowledge of management can reduce its consequences. In this study, using LARS.WG model and down scaling of general circulation climate model HADCM-3 and according to the IPCC scenarios, including series A1b, A2 and B1, we simulated data from 2010 to 2040 in order to using them for long term forecasting of climate parameters of the Caspian Sea and its impact on sea level. Our research involves collecting data on monthly precipitation amounts, minimum and maximum temperature and daily sunshine hours, from meteorological organization for Caspian Sea coastal station such as Gorgan, Ramsar, Rasht, Anzali, Astara and Ghaemshahr since their establishment until 2010. Considering the fact that the fluctuation range of water level in the Caspian Sea has various ups and downs in different times, there is an increase in minimum and maximum temperature for all the mentioned scenarios, which will last until 2040. Overall, the amount of rainfall in cities bordering the Caspian Sea was studied based on the three scenarios, which shows an increase in the amount. However, there will be a decrease in water level of the Caspian Sea till 2040.

Keywords: IPCC, climate change, atmospheric circulation, Caspian Sea, HADCM3, sea level

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Authors: Ravi Kumar Pandit

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Climate change is regarded as one of the most fundamental threats to sustainable livelihood and global development. There is growing a global concern in linking community-managed forests as potential climate change mitigation projects. This study was conducted to explore the local people’s perception on climate change and the role of community forestry (CF) to combat climate change impacts. Two active community forest user groups (CFUGs) from Kaski and Syangja Districts in Nepal were selected as study sites, and various participatory tools were applied to collect primary data. Although most of the respondents were unaware about the words “Climate Change” in study sites, they were quite familiar with the irregularities in rainfall season and other weather extremities. 60% of the respondents had the idea that, due to increase in precipitation, there is a frequent occurrence of erosion, floods and landslide. Around 85% of the people agreed that community forests help in stabilizing soil, reducing the natural hazards like erosion, landslide. Biogas as an alternative source of cooking energy, and changes in crops and their varieties are the common adaptation measures that local people start practicing in both CFUGs in Nepal.

Keywords: climate change, community forestry, global warming, adaptation in Nepal

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Authors: Muriel Canas-Walker

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The 2012 TV series "The Legend of Zhen Huan" is one of the most popular and influential historical dramas on Chinese television and is regularly discussed on Chinese social media such as Weibo. Set in the Qing dynasty, the 76 episodes series features palace intrigues focused on female characters. In the Forbidden City, concubines must survive the cruelty of an extreme polygamy system, constantly competing against each other. The patriarchal oppression of the women sequestred in the harem relies on fierce female competition and does not leave much room for compassion. Using Michel Foucault’s theory of power, feminist theories, and visual anthropology, this paper analyzes the complex relationships between the female characters, from their rise to power to their fall from grace, from alliances to betrayals, from sorority to sororicide. This analysis aims to understand what makes this series particularly popular with young female audiences in China and explain its importance in Chinese media.

Keywords: Chinese TV Drama, feminism, popular culture, Theory of Power

Procedia PDF Downloads 155