Search results for: error estimation

Authors: Ella Sèdé Maforikan

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Sustained water management requires quantitative information and the knowledge of spatiotemporal dynamics of hydrological system within the basin. This can be achieved through the research. Several studies have investigated both surface water and groundwater in Beterou catchment. However, there are few published papers on the application of the SWAT modeling in Beterou catchment. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of SWAT to simulate the water balance within the watershed. The inputs data consist of digital elevation model, land use maps, soil map, climatic data and discharge records. The model was calibrated and validated using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI2) approach. The calibrated started from 1989 to 2006 with four years warming up period (1985-1988); and validation was from 2007 to 2020. The goodness of the model was assessed using five indices, i.e., Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the ratio of the root means square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), percent bias (PBIAS), the coefficient of determination (R²), and Kling Gupta efficiency (KGE). Results showed that SWAT model successfully simulated river flow in Beterou catchment with NSE = 0.79, R2 = 0.80 and KGE= 0.83 for the calibration process against validation process that provides NSE = 0.78, R2 = 0.78 and KGE= 0.85 using site-based streamflow data. The relative error (PBIAS) ranges from -12.2% to 3.1%. The parameters runoff curve number (CN2), Moist Bulk Density (SOL_BD), Base Flow Alpha Factor (ALPHA_BF), and the available water capacity of the soil layer (SOL_AWC) were the most sensitive parameter. The study provides further research with uncertainty analysis and recommendations for model improvement and provision of an efficient means to improve rainfall and discharges measurement data.

Keywords: watershed, water balance, SWAT modeling, Beterou

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: B. S.Akhmetov, S. T. Akhmetova, D. N. Nadeyev, V. Yu. Yegorov, V. V. Smogoonov

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Estimated probabilities of errors of the first and second kind for nonideal biometrics-neural transducers 256 outputs, the construction of nomograms based error probability of 'own' and 'alien' from the mathematical expectation and standard deviation of the normalized measures Hamming.

Keywords: modeling, errors, probability, biometrics, neural network, authentication

Procedia PDF Downloads 475

Authors: Carla Pérez-Chirinos Buxadé, Bruno Fernández-Valdés, Mónica Morral-Yepes, Sílvia Tuyà Viñas, Josep Maria Padullés Riu, Gerard Moras Feliu

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There is a long way to explore all the possible applications inertial measurement units (IMUs) have in the sports field. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity of a new application on the use of these wearable sensors, specifically it was to evaluate a magnet-based timing system (M-BTS) for timing gate-to-gate in an alpine ski slalom using the magnetometer embedded in an IMU. This was a validation study. The criterion validity of time measured by the M-BTS was assessed using the 95% error range against actual time obtained from photocells. The experiment was carried out with first-and second-year junior skiers performing a ski slalom on a ski training slope. Eight alpine skiers (17.4 ± 0.8 years, 176.4 ± 4.9 cm, 67.7 ± 2.0 kg, 128.8 ± 26.6 slalom FIS-Points) participated in the study. An IMU device was attached to the skier’s lower back. Skiers performed a 40-gate slalom from which four gates were assessed. The M-BTS consisted of placing four bar magnets buried into the snow surface on the inner side of each gate’s turning pole; the magnetometer built into the IMU detected the peak-shaped magnetic field when passing near the magnets at a certain speed. Four magnetic peaks were detected. The time compressed between peaks was calculated. Three inter-gate times were obtained for each system: photocells and M-BTS. The total time was defined as the time sum of the inter-gate times. The 95% error interval for the total time was 0.050 s for the ski slalom. The M-BTS is valid for timing gate-to-gate in an alpine ski slalom. Inter-gate times can provide additional data for analyzing a skier’s performance, such as asymmetries between left and right foot.

Keywords: gate crossing time, inertial measurement unit, timing system, wearable sensor

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Jang-Hwan Jo

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The supply management of ecosystem services of local forests is an essential issue as it is linked to the ecological welfare of local residents. This study aims to estimate the supply, trade-offs, and synergies of local forest regulating ecosystem services using a land cover classification map (LCCM) and a forest types map (FTM). Rigorous literature reviews and Expert Delphi analysis were conducted using the detailed variables of 1:5,000 LCCM and FTM. Land-use scoring method and Getis-Ord Gi* Analysis were utilized on detailed variables to propose a method for estimating supply, trade-offs, and synergies of the local forest regulating ecosystem services. The analysis revealed that the rank order (1st to 5th) of supply of regulating ecosystem services was Erosion prevention, Air quality regulation, Heat island mitigation, Water quality regulation, and Carbon storage. When analyzing the correlation between defined services of the entire city, almost all services showed a synergistic effect. However, when analyzing locally, trade-off effects (Heat island mitigation – Air quality regulation, Water quality regulation – Air quality regulation) appeared in the eastern and northwestern forest areas. This suggests the need to consider not only the synergy and trade-offs of the entire forest between specific ecosystem services but also the synergy and trade-offs of local areas in managing the regulating ecosystem services of local forests. The study result can provide primary data for the stakeholders to determine the initial conditions of the planning stage when discussing the establishment of policies related to the adjustment of the supply of regulating ecosystem services of the forests with limited access. Moreover, the study result can also help refine the estimation of the supply of the regulating ecosystem services with the availability of other forms of data.

Keywords: ecosystem service, getis ord gi* analysis, land use scoring method, regional forest, regulating service, synergies, trade-offs

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: C. Patrascioiu, V. Matei, N. Nicolae

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The paper describes the experiments and the kinetic parameters calculus of the gasoil hydrofining. They are presented experimental results of gasoil hidrofining using Mo and promoted with Ni on aluminum support catalyst. The authors have adapted a kinetic model gasoil hydrofining. Using this proposed kinetic model and the experimental data they have calculated the parameters of the model. The numerical calculus is based on minimizing the difference between the experimental sulf concentration and kinetic model estimation.

Keywords: hydrofining, kinetic, modeling, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 425

Authors: Akhilesh Kumar, Sathyanarayan G., Nirmala S.

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An unusual approach is developed to determine the orbit of satellites/space objects. The determination of orbits is considered a boundary value problem and has been solved using the finite difference method (FDM). Only positions of the satellites/space objects are known at two end times taken as boundary conditions. The technique of finite difference has been used to calculate the orbit between end times. In this approach, the governing equation is defined as the satellite's equation of motion with a perturbed acceleration. Using the finite difference method, the governing equations and boundary conditions are discretized. The resulting system of algebraic equations is solved using Tri Diagonal Matrix Algorithm (TDMA) until convergence is achieved. This methodology test and evaluation has been done using all GPS satellite orbits from National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) precise product for Doy 125, 2023. Towards this, two hours of twelve sets have been taken into consideration. Only positions at the end times of each twelve sets are considered boundary conditions. This algorithm is applied to all GPS satellites. Results achieved using FDM compared with the results of NGA precise orbits. The maximum RSS error for the position is 0.48 [m] and the velocity is 0.43 [mm/sec]. Also, the present algorithm is applied on the IRNSS satellites for Doy 220, 2023. The maximum RSS error for the position is 0.49 [m], and for velocity is 0.28 [mm/sec]. Next, a simulation has been done for a Highly Elliptical orbit for DOY 63, 2023, for the duration of 6 hours. The RSS of difference in position is 0.92 [m] and velocity is 1.58 [mm/sec] for the orbital speed of more than 5km/sec. Whereas the RSS of difference in position is 0.13 [m] and velocity is 0.12 [mm/sec] for the orbital speed less than 5km/sec. Results show that the newly created method is reliable and accurate. Further applications of the developed methodology include missile and spacecraft targeting, orbit design (mission planning), space rendezvous and interception, space debris correlation, and navigation solutions.

Keywords: finite difference method, grid generation, NavIC system, orbit perturbation

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Levan Tsulukidze

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The paper considers debris flow phenomena and forecasting of them in the corridor of ‘TRACECA’ on the example of river Naokhrevistkali, as well as the debris flow -type channel passing between the villages of Vale-2 and Naokhrevi. As a result of expeditionary and reconnaissance investigations, as well as using empiric dependencies, the debris flow expenditure has been estimated in case of different debris flow provisions.

Keywords: debris flow, Traceca corridor, forecasting, river Naokhrevistkali

Procedia PDF Downloads 344

Authors: Naod Mekonnen Anega

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The very objective of this paper was to empirically identify technology tailored determinants to the adoption and adoption intensity (extent of use) of agricultural water management technologies in Meda Welabu Woreda, Oromia regional state, Ethiopia. Meda Welabu Woreda which is one of the administrative Woredas of the Oromia regional state was selected purposively as this Woreda is one of the Woredas in the region where small scale irrigation practices and the use of agricultural water management technologies can be found among smallholders. Using the existence water management practices (use of water management technologies) and land use pattern as a criterion Genale Mekchira Kebele is selected to undergo the study. A total of 200 smallholders were selected from the Kebele using the technique developed by Krejeie and Morgan. The study employed the Logit and Tobit models to estimate and identify the economic, social, geographical, household, institutional, psychological, technological factors that determine adoption and adoption intensity of water management technologies. The study revealed that while 55 of the sampled households are adopters of agricultural water management technology the rest 140 were non adopters of the technologies. Among the adopters included in the sample 97% are using river diversion technology (traditional) with traditional canal while the rest 7% percent are using pond with treadle pump technology. The Logit estimation reveled that while adoption of river diversion is positively and significantly affected by membership to local institutions, active labor force, income, access to credit and land ownership, adoption of treadle pump technology is positively and significantly affected by family size, education level, access to credit, extension contact, income, access to market, and slope. The Logit estimation also revealed that whereas, group action requirement, distance to farm, and size of active labor force negative and significantly influenced adoption of river diversion, age and perception has negatively and significantly influenced adoption decision of treadle pump technology. On the other hand, the Tobit estimation reveled that while adoption intensity (extent of use) of agricultural water management is positively and significantly affected by education, credit, and extension contact, access to credit, access to market and income. This study revealed that technology tailored study on adoption of Agricultural water management technologies (AWMTs) should be considered to indentify and scale up best agricultural water management practices. In fact, in countries like Ethiopia, where there is difference in social, economic, cultural, environmental and agro ecological conditions even within the same Kebele technology tailored study that fit the condition of each Kebele would help to identify and scale up best practices in agricultural water management.

Keywords: water management technology, adoption, adoption intensity, smallholders, technology tailored approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 439

Authors: Rahul Malhotra

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Fiber based access networks can deliver performance that can support the increasing demands for high speed connections. One of the new technologies that have emerged in recent years is Passive Optical Networks. This paper is targeted to show the simultaneous delivery of triple play service (data, voice and video). The comparative investigation and suitability of various data rates is presented. It is demonstrated that as we increase the data rate, number of users to be accommodated decreases due to increase in bit error rate.

Keywords: BER, PON, TDMPON, GPON, CWDM, OLT, ONT

Procedia PDF Downloads 546

Authors: Mrinal Kanti Bhowmik, Debanjana Debnath Jr., Debotosh Bhattacharjee

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A facial expression is undeniably the human manners. It is a significant channel for human communication and can be applied to extract emotional features accurately. People in pain often show variations in facial expressions that are readily observable to others. A core of actions is likely to occur or to increase in intensity when people are in pain. To illustrate the changes in the facial appearance, a system known as Facial Action Coding System (FACS) is pioneered by Ekman and Friesen for human observers. According to Prkachin and Solomon, a set of such actions carries the bulk of information about pain. Thus, the Prkachin and Solomon pain intensity (PSPI) metric is defined. So, it is very important to notice that facial expressions, being a behavioral source in communication media, provide an important opening into the issues of non-verbal communication in pain. People express their pain in many ways, and this pain behavior is the basis on which most inferences about pain are drawn in clinical and research settings. Hence, to understand the roles of different pain behaviors, it is essential to study the properties. For the past several years, the studies are concentrated on the properties of one specific form of pain behavior i.e. facial expression. This paper represents a comprehensive study on pain assessment that can model and estimate the intensity of pain that the patient is suffering. It also reviews the historical background of different pain assessment techniques in the context of painful expressions. Different approaches incorporate FACS from psychological views and a pain intensity score using the PSPI metric in pain estimation. This paper investigates in depth analysis of different approaches used in pain estimation and presents different observations found from each technique. It also offers a brief study on different distinguishing features of real and fake pain. Therefore, the necessity of the study lies in the emerging fields of painful face assessment in clinical settings.

Keywords: facial action coding system (FACS), pain, pain behavior, Prkachin and Solomon pain intensity (PSPI)

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Marriette Sakah, Samuel Gyamfi, Morkporkpor Delight Sedzro, Christoph Kuhn

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Ghana is experiencing rapid economic development and its cities command an increasingly dominant role as centers of both production and consumption. Cities run on energy and are extremely vulnerable to energy scarcity, energy price escalations and health impacts of very poor air quality. The overriding concern in Ghana and other West African states is bridging the gap between energy demand and supply. Energy efficiency presents a cost-effective solution for supply challenges by enabling more coverage with current power supply levels and reducing the need for investment in additional generation capacity and grid infrastructure. In Ghana, major issues for energy policy formulation in residential applications include lack of disaggregated electrical energy consumption data and lack of thorough understanding with regards to socio-economic influences on energy efficiency investment. This study uses a bottom up approach to estimate baseline electricity end-use as well as the energy consumption of best available technologies to enable estimation of energy-efficiency resource in terms of relative reduction in total energy use for Tema city, Ghana. A ground survey was conducted to assess the probable consumer behavior in response to energy efficiency initiatives to enable estimation of the amount of savings that would occur in response to specific policy interventions with regards to funding and incentives provision targeted at households. Results show that 16% - 54% reduction in annual electricity consumption is reasonably achievable depending on the level of incentives provision. The saved energy could supply 10000 - 34000 additional households if the added households use only best available technology. Political support and consumer awareness are necessary to translate energy efficiency resources into real energy savings.

Keywords: achievable energy savings, energy efficiency, Ghana, household appliances

Procedia PDF Downloads 205

Authors: Lixin Tian, Wei Xue

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Many jobs in society go underground, such as mine mining, tunnel construction and subways, which are vital to the development of society. Once accidents occur in these places, the interruption of traditional wired communication is not conducive to the development of rescue work. In order to realize the positioning, early warning and command functions of underground personnel and improve rescue efficiency, it is necessary to develop and design an emergency ground communication system. It is easy to be subjected to narrowband interference when performing conventional underground communication. Spreading communication can be used for this problem. However, general spread spectrum methods such as direct spread communication are inefficient, so it is proposed to use parallel combined spread spectrum (PCSS) communication to improve efficiency. The PCSS communication not only has the anti-interference ability and the good concealment of the traditional spread spectrum system, but also has a relatively high frequency band utilization rate and a strong information transmission capability. So, this technology has been widely used in practice. This paper presents a PCSS communication model-multiple detection parallel combined spread spectrum (MDPCSS) communication system. In this paper, the principle of MDPCSS communication system is described, that is, the sequence at the transmitting end is processed in blocks and cyclically shifted to facilitate multiple detection at the receiving end. The block diagrams of the transmitter and receiver of the MDPCSS communication system are introduced. At the same time, the calculation formula of the system bit error rate (BER) is introduced, and the simulation and analysis of the BER of the system are completed. By comparing with the common parallel PCSS communication, we can draw a conclusion that it is indeed possible to reduce the BER and improve the system performance. Furthermore, the influence of different pseudo-code lengths selected on the system BER is simulated and analyzed, and the conclusion is that the larger the pseudo-code length is, the smaller the system error rate is.

Keywords: cyclic shift, multiple detection, parallel combined spread spectrum, PN code

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: T. Weber, D. MacKenzie

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The script in this paper describes the use of advanced simulation environment using electronic systems (microcontroller, operational amplifiers, and FPGA). The simulation was used for non-linear dynamic systems behaviour with required observer structure working with parallel real-time simulation based on state-space representation. The proposed deposited model was used for electrodynamic effects including ionising effects and eddy current distribution also. With the script and proposed method, it is possible to calculate the spatial distribution of the electromagnetic fields in real-time and such systems. For further purpose, the spatial temperature distribution may also be used. With upon system, the uncertainties and disturbances may be determined. This provides the estimation of the more precise system states for the required system and additionally the estimation of the ionising disturbances that arise due to radiation effects in space systems. The results have also shown that a system can be developed specifically with the real-time calculation (estimation) of the radiation effects only. Electronic systems can take damage caused by impacts with charged particle flux in space or radiation environment. TID (Total Ionising Dose) of 1 Gy and Single Effect Transient (SET) free operation up to 50 MeVcm²/mg may assure certain functions. Single-Event Latch-up (SEL) results on the placement of several transistors in the shared substrate of an integrated circuit; ionising radiation can activate an additional parasitic thyristor. This short circuit between semiconductor-elements can destroy the device without protection and measurements. Single-Event Burnout (SEB) on the other hand, increases current between drain and source of a MOSFET and destroys the component in a short time. A Single-Event Gate Rupture (SEGR) can destroy a dielectric of semiconductor also. In order to be able to react to these processes, it must be calculated within a shorter time that ionizing radiation and dose is present. For this purpose, sensors may be used for the realistic evaluation of the diffusion and ionizing effects of the test system. For this purpose, the Peltier element is used for the evaluation of the dynamic temperature increases (dT/dt), from which a measure of the ionization processes and thus radiation will be detected. In addition, the piezo element may be used to record highly dynamic vibrations and oscillations to absorb impacts of charged particle flux. All available sensors shall be used to calibrate the spatial distributions also. By measured value of size and known location of the sensors, the entire distribution in space can be calculated retroactively or more accurately. With the formation, the type of ionisation and the direct effect to the systems and thus possible prevent processes can be activated up to the shutdown. The results show possibilities to perform more qualitative and faster simulations independent of space-systems and radiation environment also. The paper gives additionally an overview of the diffusion effects and their mechanisms.

Keywords: cattle, biochar, manure, microbial activity

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Mária Csernoch, Piroska Biró

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The legends about “user-friendly” and “easy-to-use” birotical tools (computer-related office tools) have been spreading and misleading end-users. This approach has led us to the extremely high number of incorrect documents, causing serious financial losses in the creating, modifying, and retrieving processes. Our research proved that there are at least two sources of this underachievement: (1) The lack of the definition of the correctly edited, formatted documents. Consequently, end-users do not know whether their methods and results are correct or not. They are not aware of their ignorance. They are so ignorant that their ignorance does not allow them to realize their lack of knowledge. (2) The end-users’ problem-solving methods. We have found that in non-traditional programming environments end-users apply, almost exclusively, surface approach metacognitive methods to carry out their computer related activities, which are proved less effective than deep approach methods. Based on these findings we have developed deep approach methods which are based on and adapted from traditional programming languages. In this study, we focus on the most popular type of birotical documents, the text-based documents. We have provided the definition of the correctly edited text, and based on this definition, adapted the debugging method known in programming. According to the method, before the realization of text editing, a thorough debugging of already existing texts and the categorization of errors are carried out. With this method in advance to real text editing users learn the requirements of text-based documents and also of the correctly formatted text. The method has been proved much more effective than the previously applied surface approach methods. The advantages of the method are that the real text handling requires much less human and computer sources than clicking aimlessly in the GUI (Graphical User Interface), and the data retrieval is much more effective than from error-prone documents.

Keywords: deep approach metacognitive methods, error-prone birotical documents, financial losses, human and computer resources

Procedia PDF Downloads 376

Authors: U. Thisara G. Perera, C. M. Kanchana N. K. Chandrasekara

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Dengue is an epidemic which is spread by Aedes Egyptai and Aedes Albopictus mosquitoes. The cases of dengue show a dramatic growth rate of the epidemic in urban and semi urban areas spatially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Incidence of dengue has become a prominent reason for hospitalization and deaths in Asian countries, including Sri Lanka. During the last decade the dengue epidemic began to spread from urban to semi-urban and then to rural settings of the country. The highest number of dengue infected patients was recorded in Sri Lanka in the year 2016 and the highest number of patients was identified in Colombo district. Together with the commercial, industrial, and other supporting services, the district suffers from rapid urbanization and high population density. Thus, drainage and waste disposal patterns of the people in this area exert an additional pressure to the environment. The district is situated in the wet zone and thus low lying lands constitute the largest portion of the district. This situation additionally facilitates mosquito breeding sites. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to assess the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of dengue epidemic in Kolonnawa MOH area (Medical Officer of Health) in the district of Colombo. The study was carried out using 615 recorded dengue cases in Kollonnawa MOH area during the south east monsoon season from May to September 2016. The Moran’s I and Kernel density estimation were used as analytical methods. The analysis of data was accomplished through the integrated use of ArcGIS 10.1 software packages along with Microsoft Excel analytical tool. Field observation was also carried out for verification purposes during the study period. Results of the Moran’s I index indicates that the spatial distribution of dengue cases showed a cluster distribution pattern across the area. Kernel density estimation emphasis that dengue cases are high where the population has gathered, especially in areas comprising housing schemes. Results of the Kernel Density estimation further discloses that hot spots of dengue epidemic are located in the western half of the Kolonnawa MOH area, which is close to the Colombo municipal boundary and there is a significant relationship with high population density and unplanned urban land use practices. Results of the field observation confirm that the drainage systems in these areas function poorly and careless waste disposal methods of the people further encourage mosquito breeding sites. This situation has evolved harmfully from a public health issue to a social problem, which ultimately impacts on the economy and social lives of the country.

Keywords: Dengue epidemic, health hazards, Kernel density, Moran’s I, Sri Lanka

Procedia PDF Downloads 295

Authors: Safeer Hussain Khan

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In this paper, we prove a strong convergence result using a recently introduced iterative process with contractive-like operators. This improves and generalizes corresponding results in the literature in two ways: the iterative process is faster, operators are more general. In the end, we indicate that the results can also be proved with the iterative process with error terms.

Keywords: contractive-like operator, iterative process, fixed point, strong convergence

Procedia PDF Downloads 423

Authors: Ortiz M. Rocío, Rocha G. Karina, Domenech A. Gloria

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There are several tools to assess the nutritional status of the population. A main instrument commonly used to build those tools is the food composition tables (FCT). Despite the importance of FCT, there are many error sources and variability factors that can be presented on building those tables and can lead to an under or over estimation of ingest of nutrients of a population. This work identified different food composition tables used as an instrument to estimate the nutrient ingest in Ecuador.The collection of data for choosing FCT was made through key informants –self completed questionnaires-, supplemented with institutional web research. A questionnaire with general variables (origin, year of edition, etc) and methodological variables (method of elaboration, information of the table, etc) was passed to the identified FCT. Those variables were defined based on an extensive literature review. A descriptive analysis of content was performed. Ten printed tables and three databases were reported which were all indistinctly treated as food composition tables. We managed to get information from 69% of the references. Several informants referred to printed documents that were not accessible. In addition, searching the internet was not successful. Of the 9 final tables, n=8 are from Latin America, and, n= 5 of these were constructed by indirect method (collection of already published data) having as a main source of information a database from the United States department of agriculture USDA. One FCT was constructed by using direct method (bromatological analysis) and has its origin in Ecuador. The 100% of the tables made a clear distinction of the food and its method of cooking, 88% of FCT expressed values of nutrients per 100g of edible portion, 77% gave precise additional information about the use of the table, and 55% presented all the macro and micro nutrients on a detailed way. The more complete FCT were: INCAP (Central America), Composition of foods (Mexico). The more referred table was: Ecuadorian food composition table of 1965 (70%). The indirect method was used for most tables within this study. However, this method has the disadvantage that it generates less reliable food composition tables because foods show variations in composition. Therefore, a database cannot accurately predict the composition of any isolated sample of a food product.In conclusion, analyzing the pros and cons, and, despite being a FCT elaborated by using an indirect method, it is considered appropriate to work with the FCT of INCAP Central America, given the proximity to our country and a food items list that is very similar to ours. Also, it is imperative to have as a reference the table of composition for Ecuadorian food, which, although is not updated, was constructed using the direct method with Ecuadorian foods. Hence, both tables will be used to elaborate a questionnaire with the purpose of assessing the food consumption of the Ecuadorian population. In case of having disparate values, we will proceed by taking just the INCAP values because this is an updated table.

Keywords: Ecuadorian food composition tables, FCT elaborated by direct method, ingest of nutrients of Ecuadorians, Latin America food composition tables

Procedia PDF Downloads 423

Authors: Yi-Fan Lin, Peter P. Howley, Frank A. Tuyl

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Quality measurement and reporting systems are used in healthcare internationally. In Australia, the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards records and reports hundreds of clinical indicators (CIs) nationally across the healthcare system. These CIs are measures of performance in the clinical setting, and are used as a screening tool to help assess whether a standard of care is being met. Existing analysis and reporting of these CIs incorporate Bayesian methods to address sampling variation; however, such assessments are retrospective in nature, reporting upon the previous six or twelve months of data. The use of Bayesian methods within statistical process control for monitoring systems is an important pursuit to support more timely decision-making. Our research has developed and assessed a new graphical monitoring tool, similar to a control chart, based on the beta-binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution to facilitate the real-time assessment of health care organizational performance via CIs. The BBPP charts have been compared with the traditional Bernoulli CUSUM (BC) chart by simulation. The more traditional “central” and “highest posterior density” (HPD) interval approaches were each considered to define the limits, and the multiple charts were compared via in-control and out-of-control average run lengths (ARLs), assuming that the parameter representing the underlying CI rate (proportion of cases with an event of interest) required estimation. Preliminary results have identified that the BBPP chart with HPD-based control limits provides better out-of-control run length performance than the central interval-based and BC charts. Further, the BC chart’s performance may be improved by using Bayesian parameter estimation of the underlying CI rate.

Keywords: average run length (ARL), bernoulli cusum (BC) chart, beta binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution, clinical indicator (CI), healthcare organization (HCO), highest posterior density (HPD) interval

Procedia PDF Downloads 197

Authors: Meriem Taleb, Ghania Tail, Fatma Zohra Kara, Brahim Djedouani, T. Moussa

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Forensic entomology is the use of insects and their arthropod relatives as silent witnesses to aid legal investigations by interpreting information concerning a death. The main purpose of forensic entomology is to establish the postmortem interval or PMI Postmortem interval is a matter of crucial importance in the investigations of homicide and other untimely deaths when the body found is after three days. Forensic entomology has grown immensely as a discipline in the past thirty years. In Algeria, forensic entomology was introduced in 2010 by the National Institute for Criminalistics and Criminology of the National Gendarmerie (NICC). However, all the work that has been done so far in this growing field in Algeria has been unknown at both the national and international levels. In this context, the aim of this paper is to describe the state of forensic entomology in Algeria. The Laboratory of Entomology of the NICC is the only one of its kind in Algeria. It started its activities in 2010, consisting of two specialists. The main missions of the laboratory are estimation of the PMI by the analysis of entomological evidence, and determination if the body was moved. Currently, the laboratory is performing different tasks such as the expert work required by investigators to estimate the PMI using the insects. The estimation is performed by the accumulated degree days method (ADD) in most of the cases except for those where the cadaver is in dry decay. To assure the quality of the entomological evidence, crime scene personnel are trained by the laboratory of Entomology of the NICC. Recently, undergraduate and graduate students have been studying carrion ecology and insect activity in different geographic locations of Algeria using rabbits and wild boar cadavers as animal models. The Laboratory of Entomology of the NICC has also been involved in some of these research projects. Entomotoxicology experiments are also conducted with the collaboration of the Toxicology Department of the NICC. By dint of hard work that has been performed by the Laboratory of Entomology of the NICC, official bodies have been adopting more and more the use of entomological evidence in criminal investigations in Algeria, which is commendable. It is important, therefore, that steps are taken to fill in the gaps in the knowledge necessary for entomological evidence to have a useful future in criminal investigations in Algeria.

Keywords: forensic entomology, corpse, insects, postmortem interval, expertise, Algeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 395

Authors: Varun K, Pramod B. Balareddy

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Estimation of wind forces plays a significant role in the in the design of large antenna parabolic reflectors. Reflector surface accuracies are very sensitive to the gain of the antenna system at higher frequencies. Hence accurate estimation of wind forces becomes important, which is primary input for design and analysis of the reflector system. In the present work, numerical simulation of wind flow using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software is used to investigate the external pressure coefficients. An extensive comparative study has been made between the CFD results and the published wind tunnel data for different wind angle of attacks (α) acting over concave to convex surfaces respectively. Flow simulations using CFD are carried out to estimate the coefficients of Drag, Lift and Moment for the parabolic reflector. Coefficients of pressures (Cp) over the front and the rear face of the reflector are extracted over surface of the reflector to study the net pressure variations. These resultant pressure variations are compared with the published wind tunnel data for different angle of attacks. It was observed from the CFD simulations, both convex and concave face of reflector system experience a band of pressure variations for the positive and negative angle of attacks respectively. In the published wind tunnel data, Pressure variations over convex surfaces are assumed to be uniform and vice versa. Chordwise and spanwise pressure variations were calculated and compared with the published experimental data. In the present work, it was observed that the maximum pressure coefficients for α ranging from +30° to -90° and α=+90° was lower. For α ranging from +45° to +75°, maximum pressure coefficients were higher as compared to wind tunnel data. This variation is due to non-uniform pressure distribution observed over front and back faces of reflector. Variations in Cd, Cl and Cm over α=+90° to α=-90° was in close resemblance with the experimental data.

Keywords: angle of attack, drag coefficient, lift coefficient, pressure coefficient

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Authors: Sulaiman Gafar Muhamad

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A rapid spectrophotometric method for the micro-determination of phenylephrine-HCl (PHE) has been developed. The proposed method involves the coupling of phenylephrine-HCl with diazotized 2,4-dinitroaniline in alkaline medium at λmax 455 nm. Under the present optimum condition, Beer’s law was obeyed in the range of 1.0-20 μg/ml of PHE with molar absorptivity of 1.915 ×104 l. mol-1.cm-1, with a relative error of 0.015 and a relative standard deviation of 0.024%. The current method has been applied successfully to estimate phenylephrine-HCl in pharmaceutical preparations (nose drop and syrup).

Keywords: diazo-coupling, 2, 4-dinitroaniline, phenylephrine-HCl, spectrophotometry

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Authors: Sergey A. Lurie, Yury O. Solyaev, Dmitry B. Volkov-Bogorodsky, Alexander V. Volkov

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The media with voids is considered and the method of the analytical estimation of the effective mechanical properties in the theory of elastic materials with voids is proposed. The variational model of the porous media is discussed, which is based on the model of the media with fields of conserved dislocations. It is shown that this model is fully consistent with the known model of the linear elastic materials with voids. In the present work, the generalized model of the porous media is proposed in which the specific surface properties are associated with the field of defects-pores in the volume of the deformed body. Unlike typical surface elasticity model, the strain energy density of the considered model includes the special part of the surface energy with the quadratic form of the free distortion tensor. In the result, the non-classical boundary conditions take modified form of the balance equations of volume and surface stresses. The analytical approach is proposed in the present work which allows to receive the simple enough engineering estimations for effective characteristics of the media with free dilatation. In particular, the effective flexural modulus and Poisson's ratio are determined for the problem of a beam pure bending. Here, the known voids elasticity solution was expanded on the generalized model with the surface effects. Received results allow us to compare the deformed state of the porous beam with the equivalent classic beam to introduce effective bending rigidity. Obtained analytical expressions for the effective properties depend on the thickness of the beam as a parameter. It is shown that the flexural modulus of the porous beam is decreased with an increasing of its thickness and the effective Poisson's ratio of the porous beams can take negative values for the certain values of the model parameters. On the other hand, the effective shear modulus is constant under variation of all values of the non-classical model parameters. Solutions received for a beam pure bending and the hydrostatic loading of the porous media are compared. It is shown that an analytical estimation for the bulk modulus of the porous material under hydrostatic compression gives an asymptotic value for the effective bulk modulus of the porous beam in the case of beam thickness increasing. Additionally, it is shown that the scale effects appear due to the surface properties of the porous media. Obtained results allow us to offer the procedure of an experimental identification of the non-classical parameters in the theory of the linear elastic materials with voids based on the bending tests for samples with different thickness. Finally, the problem of implementation of the Saint-Venant hypothesis for the transverse stresses in the porous beam are discussed. These stresses are different from zero in the solution of the voids elasticity theory, but satisfy the integral equilibrium equations. In this work, the exact value of the introduced surface parameter was found, which provides the vanishing of the transverse stresses on the free surfaces of a beam.

Keywords: effective properties, scale effects, surface defects, voids elasticity

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Authors: Mohammed Jamal Al-Mansor, Kok Beng Gan

Abstract:

This paper develops an optimized embedding of payload in medical image by using genetic optimization. The goal is to preserve region of interest from being distorted because of the watermark. By using this developed system there is no need of manual defining of region of interest through experts as the system will apply the genetic optimization to select the parts of image that can carry the watermark with guaranteeing less distortion. The experimental results assure that genetic based optimization is useful for performing steganography with less mean square error percentage.

Keywords: AES, DWT, genetic algorithm, watermarking

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Authors: Jéssica Ferreira Rodrigues, Júlio Silvio De Sousa Bueno Filho, Vanessa Rios De Souza, Ana Carla Marques Pinheiro

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This study aimed to evaluate the implications of the block size and testing order on efficiency and precision of preference estimation for Dulce de leche samples. Efficiency was defined as the inverse of the average variance of pairwise comparisons among treatments. Precision was defined as the inverse of the variance of treatment means (or effects) estimates. The experiment was originally designed to test 16 treatments as a series of 8 Sudoku 16x16 designs being 4 randomized independently and 4 others in the reverse order, to yield balance in testing order. Linear mixed models were assigned to the whole experiment with 112 testers and all their grades, as well as their partially balanced subgroups, namely: a) experiment with the four initial EU; b) experiment with EU 5 to 8; c) experiment with EU 9 to 12; and b) experiment with EU 13 to 16. To record responses we used a nine-point hedonic scale, it was assumed a mixed linear model analysis with random tester and treatments effects and with fixed test order effect. Analysis of a cumulative random effects probit link model was very similar, with essentially no different conclusions and for simplicity, we present the results using Gaussian assumption. R-CRAN library lme4 and its function lmer (Fit Linear Mixed-Effects Models) was used for the mixed models and libraries Bayesthresh (default Gaussian threshold function) and ordinal with the function clmm (Cumulative Link Mixed Model) was used to check Bayesian analysis of threshold models and cumulative link probit models. It was noted that the number of samples tested in the same session can influence the acceptance level, underestimating the acceptance. However, proving a large number of samples can help to improve the samples discrimination.

Keywords: acceptance, block size, mixed linear model, testing order, testing order

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Authors: Aqeela Mir, Akhtar Nawaz Malik, Javaid Iqbal

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The paper presents a survey based approach in order to observe the level of awareness regarding Mechatronics in society of Pakistan and the factors affecting the future development trend of Mechatronics in Pakistan. With the help of these surveys a new direction for making a Mathematical model for the future development trend of Mechatronics in Pakistan is also suggested.

Keywords: mechatronics society survey, future development trend of mechatronics in pakistan, probability estimation, mathematical model

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Authors: Helmi Temimi

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In this paper, we study the super-convergence properties of the discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method applied to one-dimensional mth-order ordinary differential equations without introducing auxiliary variables. We found that nth−derivative of the DG solution exhibits an optimal O (hp+1−n) convergence rates in the L2-norm when p-degree piecewise polynomials with p≥1 are used. We further found that the odd-derivatives and the even derivatives are super convergent, respectively, at the upwind and downwind endpoints.

Keywords: discontinuous, galerkin, superconvergence, higherorder, error, estimates

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Authors: Baladitya Swaika, Rahul Khatry

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Computer Adaptive Tests (CATs) is one of the most efficient ways for testing the cognitive abilities of students. CATs are based on Item Response Theory (IRT) which is based on item selection and ability estimation using statistical methods of maximum information selection/selection from posterior and maximum-likelihood (ML)/maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimators respectively. This study aims at combining both classical and Bayesian approaches to IRT to create a dataset which is then fed to a neural network which automates the process of ability estimation and then comparing it to traditional CAT models designed using IRT. This study uses python as the base coding language, pymc for statistical modelling of the IRT and scikit-learn for neural network implementations. On creation of the model and on comparison, it is found that the Neural Network based model performs 7-10% worse than the IRT model for score estimations. Although performing poorly, compared to the IRT model, the neural network model can be beneficially used in back-ends for reducing time complexity as the IRT model would have to re-calculate the ability every-time it gets a request whereas the prediction from a neural network could be done in a single step for an existing trained Regressor. This study also proposes a new kind of framework whereby the neural network model could be used to incorporate feature sets, other than the normal IRT feature set and use a neural network’s capacity of learning unknown functions to give rise to better CAT models. Categorical features like test type, etc. could be learnt and incorporated in IRT functions with the help of techniques like logistic regression and can be used to learn functions and expressed as models which may not be trivial to be expressed via equations. This kind of a framework, when implemented would be highly advantageous in psychometrics and cognitive assessments. This study gives a brief overview as to how neural networks can be used in adaptive testing, not only by reducing time-complexity but also by being able to incorporate newer and better datasets which would eventually lead to higher quality testing.

Keywords: computer adaptive tests, item response theory, machine learning, neural networks

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Authors: P. V. Pramila , V. Mahesh

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Pulmonary Function Tests are important non-invasive diagnostic tests to assess respiratory impairments and provides quantifiable measures of lung function. Spirometry is the most frequently used measure of lung function and plays an essential role in the diagnosis and management of pulmonary diseases. However, the test requires considerable patient effort and cooperation, markedly related to the age of patients esulting in incomplete data sets. This paper presents, a nonlinear model built using Multivariate adaptive regression splines and Random forest regression model to predict the missing spirometric features. Random forest based feature selection is used to enhance both the generalization capability and the model interpretability. In the present study, flow-volume data are recorded for N= 198 subjects. The ranked order of feature importance index calculated by the random forests model shows that the spirometric features FVC, FEF 25, PEF,FEF 25-75, FEF50, and the demographic parameter height are the important descriptors. A comparison of performance assessment of both models prove that, the prediction ability of MARS with the `top two ranked features namely the FVC and FEF 25 is higher, yielding a model fit of R2= 0.96 and R2= 0.99 for normal and abnormal subjects. The Root Mean Square Error analysis of the RF model and the MARS model also shows that the latter is capable of predicting the missing values of FEV1 with a notably lower error value of 0.0191 (normal subjects) and 0.0106 (abnormal subjects). It is concluded that combining feature selection with a prediction model provides a minimum subset of predominant features to train the model, yielding better prediction performance. This analysis can assist clinicians with a intelligence support system in the medical diagnosis and improvement of clinical care.

Keywords: FEV, multivariate adaptive regression splines pulmonary function test, random forest

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Authors: Verena M. Moock, Darien E. Arce Chávez, Mariana M. Espejel González, Leopoldo Ruíz-Huerta, Crescencio García-Segundo

Abstract:

Uncertainty analysis in industrial computed tomography is commonly related to metrological trace tools, which offer precision measurements of external part features. Unfortunately, there is no such reference tool for internal measurements to profit from the unique imaging potential of X-rays. Uncertainty approximations for computed tomography are still based on general aspects of the industrial machine and do not adapt to acquisition parameters or part characteristics. The present study investigates the impact of the acquisition time on the dimensional uncertainty measuring a stainless steel cylinder with a circular tomography scan. The authors develop the figure difference method for X-ray radiography to evaluate the volumetric differences introduced within the projected absorption maps of the metal workpiece. The dimensional uncertainty is dominantly influenced by photon energy dissipated as heat causing the thermal expansion of the metal, as monitored by an infrared camera within the industrial tomograph. With the proposed methodology, we are able to show evolving temperature differences throughout the tomography acquisition. This is an early study showing that the number of projections in computer tomography induces dimensional error due to energy absorption. The error magnitude would depend on the thermal properties of the sample and the acquisition parameters by placing apparent non-uniform unwanted volumetric expansion. We introduce infrared imaging for the experimental display of metrological uncertainty in a particular metal part of symmetric geometry. We assess that the current results are of fundamental value to reach the balance between the number of projections and uncertainty tolerance when performing analysis with X-ray dimensional exploration in precision measurements with industrial tomography.

Keywords: computed tomography, digital metrology, infrared imaging, thermal expansion

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Authors: Dong Sang Yoo

Abstract:

We consider nonlinear uncertain systems such that a priori information of the uncertainties is not available. For such systems, we assume that the upper bound of the uncertainties is represented as a Fredholm integral equation of the first kind and we propose an adaptation law that is capable of estimating the upper bound and design a continuous robust control which renders nonlinear uncertain systems ultimately bounded.

Keywords: adaptive control, estimation, Fredholm integral, uncertain system

Procedia PDF Downloads 473