Search results for: multiple negative ranking loss
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 12336

Search results for: multiple negative ranking loss

876 Eco-Nanofiltration Membranes: Nanofiltration Membrane Technology Utilization-Based Fiber Pineapple Leaves Waste as Solutions for Industrial Rubber Liquid Waste Processing and Fertilizer Crisis in Indonesia

Authors: Andi Setiawan, Annisa Ulfah Pristya

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Indonesian rubber plant area reached 2.9 million hectares with productivity reached 1.38 million. High rubber productivity is directly proportional to the amount of waste produced rubber processing industry. Rubber industry would produce a negative impact on the rubber industry in the form of environmental pollution caused by waste that has not been treated optimally. Rubber industrial wastewater containing high-nitrogen compounds (nitrate and ammonia) and phosphate compounds which cause water pollution and odor problems due to the high ammonia content. On the other hand, demand for NPK fertilizers in Indonesia continues to increase from year to year and in need of ammonia and phosphate as raw material. Based on domestic demand, it takes a year to 400,000 tons of ammonia and Indonesia imports 200,000 tons of ammonia per year valued at IDR 4.2 trillion. As well, the lack of phosphoric acid to be imported from Jordan, Morocco, South Africa, the Philippines, and India as many as 225 thousand tons per year. During this time, the process of wastewater treatment is generally done with a rubber on the tank to contain the waste and then precipitated, filtered and the rest released into the environment. However, this method is inefficient and thus require high energy costs because through many stages before producing clean water that can be discharged into the river. On the other hand, Indonesia has the potential of pineapple fruit can be harvested throughout the year in all of Indonesia. In 2010, production reached 1,406,445 tons of pineapple in Indonesia or about 9.36 percent of the total fruit production in Indonesia. Increased productivity is directly proportional to the amount of pineapple waste pineapple leaves are kept continuous and usually just dumped in the ground or disposed of with other waste at the final disposal. Through Eco-Nanofiltration Membrane-Based Fiber Pineapple leaves Waste so that environmental problems can be solved efficiently. Nanofiltration is a process that uses pressure as a driving force that can be either convection or diffusion of each molecule. Nanofiltration membranes that can split water to nano size so as to separate the waste processed residual economic value that N and P were higher as a raw material for the manufacture of NPK fertilizer to overcome the crisis in Indonesia. The raw materials were used to manufacture Eco-Nanofiltration Membrane is cellulose from pineapple fiber which processed into cellulose acetate which is biodegradable and only requires a change of the membrane every 6 months. Expected output target is Green eco-technology so with nanofiltration membranes not only treat waste rubber industry in an effective, efficient and environmentally friendly but also lowers the cost of waste treatment compared to conventional methods.

Keywords: biodegradable, cellulose diacetate, fertilizers, pineapple, rubber

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875 Acquisition of Murcian Lexicon and Morphology by L2 Spanish Immigrants: The Role of Social Networks

Authors: Andrea Hernandez Hurtado

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Research on social networks (SNs) -- the interactions individuals share with others has shed important light in helping to explain differential use of variable linguistic forms, both in L1s and L2s. Nevertheless, the acquisition of nonstandard L2 Spanish in the Region of Murcia, Spain, and how learners interact with other speakers while sojourning there have received little attention. Murcian Spanish (MuSp) was widely influenced by Panocho, a divergent evolution of Hispanic Latin, and differs from the more standard Peninsular Spanish (StSp) in phonology, morphology, and lexicon. For instance, speakers from this area will most likely palatalize diminutive endings, producing animalico [̩a.ni.ma.ˈli.ko] instead of animalito [̩a.ni.ma.ˈli.to] ‘little animal’. Because L1 speakers of the area produce and prefer salient regional lexicon and morphology (particularly the palatalized diminutive -ico) in their speech, the current research focuses on how international residents in the Region of Murcia use Spanish: (1) whether or not they acquire (perceptively and/or productively) any of the salient regional features of MuSp, and (2) how their SNs explain such acquisition. This study triangulates across three tasks -recognition, production, and preference- addressing both lexicon and morphology, with each task specifically created for the investigation of MuSp features. Among other variables, the effects of L1, residence, and identity are considered. As an ongoing dissertation research, data are currently being gathered through an online questionnaire. So far, 7 participants from multiple nationalities have completed the survey, although a minimum of 25 are expected to be included in the coming months. Preliminary results revealed that MuSp lexicon and morphology were successfully recognized by participants (p<.001). In terms of regional lexicon production (10.0%) and preference (47.5%), although participants showed higher percentages of StSp, results showed that international residents become aware of stigmatized lexicon and may incorporate it into their language use. Similarly, palatalized diminutives (production 14.2%, preference 19.0%) were present in their responses. The Social Network Analysis provided information about participants’ relationships with their interactants, as well as among them. Results indicated that, generally, when residents were more immersed in the culture (i.e., had more Murcian alters) they produced and preferred more regional features. This project contributes to the knowledge of language variation acquisition in L2 speakers, focusing on a stigmatized Spanish dialect and exploring how stigmatized varieties may affect L2 development. Results will show how L2 Spanish speakers’ language is affected by their stay in Murcia. This, in turn, will shed light on the role of SNs in language acquisition, the acquisition of understudied and marginalized varieties, and the role of immersion on language acquisition. As the first systematic account on the acquisition of L2 Spanish lexicon and morphology in the Region of Murcia, it lays important groundwork for further research on the connection between SNs and the acquisition of regional variants, applicable to Murcia and beyond.

Keywords: international residents, L2 Spanish, lexicon, morphology, nonstandard language acquisition, social networks

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874 Financial Policies in the Process of Global Crisis: Case Study Kosovo, Case Kosovo

Authors: Shpetim Rezniqi

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Financial Policies in the process of global crisis the current crisis has swept the world with special emphasis, most developed countries, those countries which have most gross -product world and you have a high level of living.Even those who are not experts can describe the consequences of the crisis to see the reality that is seen, but how far will it go this crisis is impossible to predict. Even the biggest experts have conjecture and large divergence, but agree on one thing: - The devastating effects of this crisis will be more severe than ever before and can not be predicted.Long time, the world was dominated economic theory of free market laws. With the belief that the market is the regulator of all economic problems. The market, as river water will flow to find the best and will find the necessary solution best. Therefore much less state market barriers, less state intervention and market itself is an economic self-regulation. Free market economy became the model of global economic development and progress, it transcends national barriers and became the law of the development of the entire world economy. Globalization and global market freedom were principles of development and international cooperation. All international organizations like the World Bank, states powerful economic, development and cooperation principles laid free market economy and the elimination of state intervention. The less state intervention much more freedom of action was this market- leading international principle. We live in an era of financial tragic. Financial markets and banking in particular economies are in a state of thy good, US stock markets fell about 40%, in other words, this time, was one of the darkest moments 5 since 1920. Prior to her rank can only "collapse" of the stock of Wall Street in 1929, technological collapse of 2000, the crisis of 1973 after the Yom Kippur war, while the price of oil quadrupled and famous collapse of 1937 / '38, when Europe was beginning World war II In 2000, even though it seems like the end of the world was the corner, the world economy survived almost intact. Of course, that was small recessions in the United States, Europe, or Japan. Much more difficult the situation was at crisis 30s, or 70s, however, succeeded the world. Regarding the recent financial crisis, it has all the signs to be much sharper and with more consequences. The decline in stock prices is more a byproduct of what is really happening. Financial markets began dance of death with the credit crisis, which came as a result of the large increase in real estate prices and household debt. It is these last two phenomena can be matched very well with the gains of the '20s, a period during which people spent fists as if there was no tomorrow. All is not away from the mouth of the word recession, that fact no longer a sudden and abrupt. But as much as the financial markets melt, the greater is the risk of a problematic economy for years to come. Thus, for example, the banking crisis in Japan proved to be much more severe than initially expected, partly because the assets which were based more loans had, especially the land that falling in value. The price of land in Japan is about 15 years that continues to fall. (ADRI Nurellari-Published in the newspaper "Classifieds"). At this moment, it is still difficult to çmosh to what extent the crisis has affected the economy and what would be the consequences of the crisis. What we know is that many banks will need more time to reduce the award of credit, but banks have this primary function, this means huge loss.

Keywords: globalisation, finance, crisis, recomandation, bank, credits

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873 A Kunitz-Type Serine Protease Inhibitor from Rock Bream, Oplegnathus fasciatus Involved in Immune Responses

Authors: S. D. N. K. Bathige, G. I. Godahewa, Navaneethaiyer Umasuthan, Jehee Lee

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Kunitz-type serine protease inhibitors (KTIs) are identified in various organisms including animals, plants and microbes. These proteins shared single or multiple Kunitz inhibitory domains link together or associated with other types of domains. Characteristic Kunitz type domain composed of around 60 amino acid residues with six conserved cysteine residues to stabilize by three disulfide bridges. KTIs are involved in various physiological processes, such as ion channel blocking, blood coagulation, fibrinolysis and inflammation. In this study, two Kunitz-type domain containing protein was identified from rock bream database and designated as RbKunitz. The coding sequence of RbKunitz encoded for 507 amino acids with 56.2 kDa theoretical molecular mass and 5.7 isoelectric point (pI). There are several functional domains including MANEC superfamily domain, PKD superfamily domain, and LDLa domain were predicted in addition to the two characteristic Kunitz domain. Moreover, trypsin interaction sites were also identified in Kunitz domain. Homology analysis revealed that RbKunitz shared highest identity (77.6%) with Takifugu rubripes. Completely conserved 28 cysteine residues were recognized, when comparison of RbKunitz with other orthologs from different taxonomical groups. These structural evidences indicate the rigidity of RbKunitz folding structure to achieve the proper function. The phylogenetic tree was constructed using neighbor-joining method and exhibited that the KTIs from fish and non-fish has been evolved in separately. Rock bream was clustered with Takifugu rubripes. The SYBR Green qPCR was performed to quantify the RbKunitz transcripts in different tissues and challenged tissues. The mRNA transcripts of RbKunitz were detected in all tissues (muscle, spleen, head kidney, blood, heart, skin, liver, intestine, kidney and gills) analyzed and highest transcripts level was detected in gill tissues. Temporal transcription profile of RbKunitz in rock bream blood tissues was analyzed upon LPS (lipopolysaccharide), Poly I:C (Polyinosinic:polycytidylic acid) and Edwardsiella tarda challenge to understand the immune responses of this gene. Compare to the unchallenged control RbKunitz exhibited strong up-regulation at 24 h post injection (p.i.) after LPS and E. tarda injection. Comparatively robust expression of RbKunits was observed at 3 h p.i. upon Poly I:C challenge. Taken together all these data indicate that RbKunitz may involve into to immune responses upon pathogenic stress, in order to protect the rock bream.

Keywords: Kunitz-type, rock bream, immune response, serine protease inhibitor

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872 Multimodal Analysis of News Magazines' Front-Page Portrayals of the US, Germany, China, and Russia

Authors: Alena Radina

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On the global stage, national image is shaped by historical memory of wars and alliances, government ideology and particularly media stereotypes which represent countries in positive or negative ways. News magazine covers are a key site for national representation. The object of analysis in this paper is the portrayals of the US, Germany, China, and Russia in the front pages and cover stories of “Time”, “Der Spiegel”, “Beijing Review”, and “Expert”. Political comedy helps people learn about current affairs even if politics is not their area of interest, and thus satire indirectly sets the public agenda. Coupled with satirical messages, cover images and the linguistic messages embedded in the covers become persuasive visual and verbal factors, known to drive about 80% of magazine sales. Preliminary analysis identified satirical elements in magazine covers, which are known to influence and frame understandings and attract younger audiences. Multimodal and transnational comparative framing analyses lay the groundwork to investigate why journalists, editors and designers deploy certain frames rather than others. This research investigates to what degree frames used in covers correlate with frames within the cover stories and what these framings can tell us about media professionals’ representations of their own and other nations. The study sample includes 32 covers consisting of two covers representing each of the four chosen countries from the four magazines. The sampling framework considers two time periods to compare countries’ representation with two different presidents, and between men and women when present. The countries selected for analysis represent each category of the international news flows model: the core nations are the US and Germany; China is a semi-peripheral country; and Russia is peripheral. Examining textual and visual design elements on the covers and images in the cover stories reveals not only what editors believe visually attracts the reader’s attention to the magazine but also how the magazines frame and construct national images and national leaders. The cover is the most powerful editorial and design page in a magazine because images incorporate less intrusive framing tools. Thus, covers require less cognitive effort of audiences who may therefore be more likely to accept the visual frame without question. Analysis of design and linguistic elements in magazine covers helps to understand how media outlets shape their audience’s perceptions and how magazines frame global issues. While previous multimodal research of covers has focused mostly on lifestyle magazines or newspapers, this paper examines the power of current affairs magazines’ covers to shape audience perception of national image.

Keywords: framing analysis, magazine covers, multimodality, national image, satire

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871 The Display of Environmental Information to Promote Energy Saving Practices: Evidence from a Massive Behavioral Platform

Authors: T. Lazzarini, M. Imbiki, P. E. Sutter, G. Borragan

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While several strategies, such as the development of more efficient appliances, the financing of insulation programs or the rolling out of smart meters represent promising tools to reduce future energy consumption, their implementation relies on people’s decisions-actions. Likewise, engaging with consumers to reshape their behavior has shown to be another important way to reduce energy usage. For these reasons, integrating the human factor in the energy transition has become a major objective for researchers and policymakers. Digital education programs based on tangible and gamified user interfaces have become a new tool with potential effects to reduce energy consumption4. The B2020 program, developed by the firm “Économie d’Énergie SAS”, proposes a digital platform to encourage pro-environmental behavior change among employees and citizens. The platform integrates 160 eco-behaviors to help saving energy and water and reducing waste and CO2 emissions. A total of 13,146 citizens have used the tool so far to declare the range of eco-behaviors they adopt in their daily lives. The present work seeks to build on this database to identify the potential impact of adopted energy-saving behaviors (n=62) to reduce the use of energy in buildings. To this end, behaviors were classified into three categories regarding the nature of its implementation (Eco-habits: e.g., turning-off the light, Eco-actions: e.g., installing low carbon technology such as led light-bulbs and Home-Refurbishments: e.g., such as wall-insulation or double-glazed energy efficient windows). General Linear Models (GLM) disclosed the existence of a significantly higher frequency of Eco-habits when compared to the number of home-refurbishments realized by the platform users. While this might be explained in part by the high financial costs that are associated with home renovation works, it also contrasts with the up to three times larger energy-savings that can be accomplished by these means. Furthermore, multiple regression models failed to disclose the expected relationship between energy-savings and frequency of adopted eco behaviors, suggesting that energy-related practices are not necessarily driven by the correspondent energy-savings. Finally, our results also suggested that people adopting more Eco-habits and Eco-actions were more likely to engage in Home-Refurbishments. Altogether, these results fit well with a growing body of scientific research, showing that energy-related practices do not necessarily maximize utility, as postulated by traditional economic models, and suggest that other variables might be triggering them. Promoting home refurbishments could benefit from the adoption of complementary energy-saving habits and actions.

Keywords: energy-saving behavior, human performance, behavioral change, energy efficiency

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870 Effect of Resistance Exercise on Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Gonadal Axis

Authors: Alireza Barari, Saeed Shirali, Ahmad Abdi

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Abstract: Introduction: Physical activity may be related to male reproductive function by affecting on thehypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal(HPG) axis. Our aim was to determine the effects of 6 weeks resistance exercise on reproductive hormones, HPG axis. The hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis refers tothe effects of endocrine glands in three-level including (i) the hypothalamic releasing hormone GnRH, which is synthesized in in a small heterogenous neuronal population and released in a pulsatile fashion, (ii) the anterior pituitary hormones, follicle-stimulating hormone(FSH) and luteinizing hormone (LH) and (iii) the gonadal hormones, which include both steroid such as testosterone (T), estradiol and progesterone and peptide hormones (such as inhibin). Hormonal changes that create a more anabolic environment have been suggested to contribute to the adaptation to strength exercise. Physical activity has an extensive impact on male reproductive function depending upon the intensity and duration of the exercise and the fitness level of the individual. However, strenuous exercise represents a physical stress and inflammation changed that challenges homeostasis. Materials and methods: Sixteen male volunteered were included in a 6-week control period followed by 6 weeks of resistance training (leg press, lat pull, chest press, squat, seatedrow, abdominal crunch, shoulder press, biceps curl and triceps press down) four times per week. intensity of training loading was 60%-75% of one maximum repetition. Participants performed 3 sets of 10 repetitions. Rest periods were two min between exercises and sets. Start with warm up exercises include: The muscles relax and stretch the body, which was for 10 minutes. Body composition, VO2max and the circulating level of free testosterone (fT), luteinizing hormone (LH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) and inhibin B measured prior and post 6-week intervention. The hormonal levels of each serum sample were measured using commercially available ELISA kits. Analysis of anthropometrical data and hormonal level were compared using the independent samples t- test in both groups and using SPSS (version 19). P ≤ 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: For muscle strength, both lower- and upper-body strength were increased significantly. Aerobic fitness level improved in trained participant from 39.4 ± 5.6 to 41.9 ± 5.3 (P = 0.002). fT concentration rise progressively in the trained group and was significantly greater than those in the control group (P = 0.000). By the end of the 6-week resistance training, serum SHBG significantly increased in the trained group compared with the control group (P = 0.013). In response to resistance training, LH, FSH and inhibin B were not significantly changed. Discussion: According to our finfings, 6 weeks of resistance training induce fat loss without any changes in body weight and BMI. A decline of 25.3% in percentage of body fat with statiscally same weight was due to increase in muscle mass that happened during resistance exercise periods . Six weeks of resistance training resulted in significant improvement in BF%, VO2max and increasing strength and the level of fT and SHBG.

Keywords: resistance, hypothalamic, pituitary, gonadal axis

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869 Female Mystics in Medieval Muslim Societies in the Period between the Ninth and Thirteenth Centuries

Authors: Arin Salamah Qudsi

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Female piety and the roles that female mystics played in Muslim landscapes of the period between the ninth and thirteenth centuries are topics that attracted many scholarly endeavors. However, personal aspects of both male and female Sufis were not thoroughly investigated. It would be of a great significance to examine the different roles of Sufi women as spouses, household supporters, and, mothers based on Sufi and non Sufi sources. Sisters and mothers, rather than wives and daughters, are viewed in anthropological studies of different cultures as women who could enjoy a high social status and thus play influential roles. Sufi hagiographies, which are our main sources, have long been regarded in a negative light, and their value for our understanding of the early history of Sufism is held in doubt. More recently, however, a new scholarly voice has begun to reclaim the historical value of hagiographies. We need to approach the narrative structures and styles of the anecdotal segments, which are the building blocks of the hagiographical body of writing. The image of a particular Sufi figure as portrayed by his near-contemporaries can provide a more useful means to sketch the components of his unique piety than his real life. However, in certain cases, whenever singular and unique appearances of particular stories occur, certain historical and individual conclusions could be sought. As for women in Sufi hagiographies, we know about sisters who acted as a solid support for their renowned Sufi brothers. Some of those sisters preferred not to be married until a late age in order to "serve" their brothers, while others supported their brothers while pursuing their own spiritual careers. Data of this type should be carefully considered and its historical context should be thoroughly investigated. The reference here is to women, mostly married women, who offered to maintain their brothers or male relatives despite social norms or generic prohibitions, which undoubtedly gave them strong authority over them. As for mothers, we should differentiate between mothers who were Sufis themselves, and those who were the mothers of Sufi figures. It seems most likely that in both types, mothers were not always unquestionably the effective lightening trigger. Mothers of certain Sufi figures denied their sons free mobility, taking advantage of the highly esteemed principle of gratifying the wishes of one's mother and the seminal ideal of ḥaqq al-wālida (lit. mother's right). Drawing on the anecdotes provided by a few sources leads to the suggestion that many Sufis actually strove to reduce their mothers' authority in order to establish their independent careers. In light of women's authority over their brothers and sons in Sufi spheres, maternal uncles could enjoy a crucial position of influence over their nephews. The roles of Sufi mothers and of Sufi maternal uncles in the lives of early Sufi figures are topics that have not yet been dealt with in modern scholarship on classical Sufism.

Keywords: female Sufis, hagiographies, maternal uncles, mother's right

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868 The Environmental Impact of Sustainability Dispersion of Chlorine Releases in Coastal Zone of Alexandra: Spatial-Ecological Modeling

Authors: Mohammed El Raey, Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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The spatial-ecological modeling is relating sustainable dispersions with social development. Sustainability with spatial-ecological model gives attention to urban environments in the design review management to comply with Earth’s System. Naturally exchange patterns of ecosystems have consistent and periodic cycles to preserve energy flows and materials in Earth’s System. The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technique is utilized to assess the safety of industrial complex. The other analytical approach is the Failure-Safe Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) for critical components. The plant safety parameters are identified for engineering topology as employed in assessment safety of industrial ecology. In particular, the most severe accidental release of hazardous gaseous is postulated, analyzed and assessment in industrial region. The IAEA- safety assessment procedure is used to account the duration and rate of discharge of liquid chlorine. The ecological model of plume dispersion width and concentration of chlorine gas in the downwind direction is determined using Gaussian Plume Model in urban and ruler areas and presented with SURFER®. The prediction of accident consequences is traced in risk contour concentration lines. The local greenhouse effect is predicted with relevant conclusions. The spatial-ecological model is also predicted the distribution schemes from the perspective of pollutants that considered multiple factors of multi-criteria analysis. The data extends input–output analysis to evaluate the spillover effect, and conducted Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analysis. Their unique structure is balanced within “equilibrium patterns”, such as the biosphere and collective a composite index of many distributed feedback flows. These dynamic structures are related to have their physical and chemical properties and enable a gradual and prolonged incremental pattern. While this spatial model structure argues from ecology, resource savings, static load design, financial and other pragmatic reasons, the outcomes are not decisive in artistic/ architectural perspective. The hypothesis is an attempt to unify analytic and analogical spatial structure for development urban environments using optimization software and applied as an example of integrated industrial structure where the process is based on engineering topology as optimization approach of systems ecology.

Keywords: spatial-ecological modeling, spatial structure orientation impact, composite structure, industrial ecology

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867 Assessment Environmental and Economic of Yerba Mate as a Feed Additive on Feedlot Lamb

Authors: Danny Alexander R. Moreno, Gustavo L. Sartorello, Yuli Andrea P. Bermudez, Richard R. Lobo, Ives Claudio S. Bueno, Augusto H. Gameiro

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Meat production is a significant sector for Brazil's economy; however, the agricultural segment has suffered censure regarding the negative impacts on the environment, which consequently results in climate change. Therefore, it is essential the implementation of nutritional strategies that can improve the environmental performance of livestock. This research aimed to estimate the environmental impact and profitability of the use of yerba mate extract (Ilex paraguariensis) as an additive in the feeding of feedlot lamb. Thirty-six castrated male lambs (average weight of 23.90 ± 3.67 kg and average age of 75 days) were randomly assigned to four experimental diets with different levels of inclusion of yerba mate extract (0, 1, 2, and 4 %) based on dry matter. The animals were confined for fifty-three days and fed with 60:40 corn silage to concentrate ratio. As an indicator of environmental impact, the carbon footprint (CF) was measured as kg of CO₂ equivalent (CO₂-eq) per kg of body weight produced (BWP). The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as methane (CH₄) generated from enteric fermentation, were calculated using the sulfur hexafluoride gas tracer (SF₆) technique; while the CH₄, nitrous oxide (N₂O - emissions generated by feces and urine), and carbon dioxide (CO₂ - emissions generated by concentrate and silage processing) were estimated using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology. To estimate profitability, the gross margin was used, which is the total revenue minus the total cost; the latter is composed of the purchase of animals and food. The boundaries of this study considered only the lamb fattening system. The enteric CH₄ emission from the lamb was the largest source of on-farm GHG emissions (47%-50%), followed by CH₄ and N₂O emissions from manure (10%-20%) and CO₂ emission from the concentrate, silage, and fossil energy (17%-5%). The treatment that generated the least environmental impact was the group with 4% of yerba mate extract (YME), which showed a 3% reduction in total GHG emissions in relation to the control (1462.5 and 1505.5 kg CO₂-eq, respectively). However, the scenario with 1% YME showed an increase in emissions of 7% compared to the control group. In relation to CF, the treatment with 4% YME had the lowest value (4.1 kg CO₂-eq/kg LW) compared with the other groups. Nevertheless, although the 4% YME inclusion scenario showed the lowest CF, the gross margin decreased by 36% compared to the control group (0% YME), due to the cost of YME as a food additive. The results showed that the extract has the potential for use in reducing GHG. However, the cost of implementing this input as a mitigation strategy increased the production cost. Therefore, it is important to develop political strategies that help reduce the acquisition costs of input that contribute to the search for the environmental and economic benefit of the livestock sector.

Keywords: meat production, natural additives, profitability, sheep

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866 Thai Cane Farmers' Responses to Sugar Policy Reforms: An Intentions Survey

Authors: Savita Tangwongkit, Chittur S Srinivasan, Philip J. Jones

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Thailand has become the world’s fourth largest sugarcane producer and second largest sugar exporter. While there have been a number of drivers of this growth, the primary driver has been wide-ranging government support measures. Recently, the Thai government has emphasized the need for policy reform as part of a broader industry restructuring to bring the sector up-to-date with the current and future developments in the international sugar market. Because of the sectors historical dependence on government support, any such reform is likely to have a very significant impact on the fortunes of Thai cane farmers. This study explores the impact of three policy scenarios, representing a spectrum of policy approaches, on Thai cane producers. These reform scenarios were designed in consultation with policy makers and academics working in the cane sector. Scenario 1 captures the current ‘government proposal’ for policy reform. This scenario removes certain domestic production subsidies but seeks to maintain as much support as is permissible under current WTO rules. The second scenario, ‘protectionism’, maintains the current internal market producer supports, but otherwise complies with international (WTO) commitments. Third, the ‘libertarian scenario’ removes all production support and market interventions, trade and domestic consumption distortions. Most important driver of producer behaviour in all of the scenarios is the producer price of cane. Cane price is obviously highest under the protectionism scenario, followed by government proposal and libertarian scenarios, respectively. Likely producer responses to these three policy scenarios was determined by means of a large-scale survey of cane farmers. The sample was stratified by size group and quotas filled by size group and region. One scenario was presented to each of three sub-samples, consisting of approx.150 farmers. Total sample size was 462 farms. Data was collected by face-to-face interview between June and August 2019. There was a marked difference in farmer response to the three scenarios. Farmers in the ‘Protectionism’ scenario, which maintains the highest cane price and those who farm larger cane areas are more likely to continue cane farming. The libertarian scenario is likely to result in the greatest losses in terms of cane production volume broadly double that of the ‘protectionism’ scenario, primarily due to farmers quitting cane production altogether. Over half of loss cane production volume comes from medium-size farm, i.e. the largest and smallest producers are the most resilient. This result is likely due to the fact that the medium size group are large enough to require hired labour but lack the economies of scale of the largest farms. Over all size groups the farms most heavily specialized in cane production, i.e. those devoting 26-50% of arable land to cane, are also the most vulnerable, with 70% of all farmers quitting cane production coming from this group. This investigation suggests that cane price is the most significant determinant of farmer behaviour. Also, that where scenarios drive significantly lower cane price, policy makers should target support towards mid-sized producers, with policies that encourage efficiency gains and diversification into alternative agricultural crops.

Keywords: farmer intentions, farm survey, policy reform, Thai cane production

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865 Solution-Focused Wellness: An Evidence-Based Approach to Wellness Promotion

Authors: James Beauchemin

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Research indicates that college students are experiencing mental health challenges of greater severity, and an increased number of students are seeking help. Contributing to the compromised wellness of the college student population are the prevalence of unhealthy lifestyle habits and behaviors such as alcohol consumption, tobacco use, dietary concerns, risky sexual behaviors, and lack of physical activity. Alternative approaches are needed for this population that emphasize prevention and holistic lifestyle change that mitigate mental health and wellness challenges and alleviate strain on campus resources. This presentation will introduce a Solution-Focused Wellness (SFW) intervention model and examine wellness domains solution-focused strategies to promote personal well-being, and provide supporting research from multiple studies that illustrate intervention effectiveness with a collegiate population. Given the subjective and personal nature of wellness, a therapeutic approach that provides the opportunity for individuals to conceptualize and operationalize wellness themselves is critical to facilitating lasting wellness-based change. Solution-Focused Brief Therapy (SFBT) is a strength-based modality defined by its emphasis on constructing solutions rather than focusing on problems and the assumption that clients have the resources and capacity to change. SFBT has demonstrated effectiveness as a brief therapeutic intervention with the college population in groups and related to health and wellness. By integrating SFBT strategies with personal wellness, a brief intervention was developed to support college students in establishing lifestyles trends consistent with their conceptualizations of wellness. Research supports the effectiveness of a SFW model in improving college student wellness in both face-to-face and web-based formats. Outcomes of controlled and longitudinal studies will be presented, demonstrating significant improvements in perceptions of stress, life satisfaction, happiness, mental health, well-being, and resilience. Overall, there is compelling evidence that utilization of a Solution-Focused Brief Therapy approach with college students can help to improve personal wellness and establish healthy lifestyle trends, providing an effective prevention-focused strategy for college counseling centers and wellness centers to employ. Primary research objectives include: 1)establish an evidence-based approach to facilitating wellness pro motion among the college student population, 2) examine the effectiveness of a Solution-Focused Wellness (SFW) intervention model in decreasing stress, improving personal wellness, mental health, life satisfaction, and resiliency,3) investigate intervention impacts over time (e.g. 6-week post-intervention), and 4) demonstrate SFW intervention utility in wellness promotion and associated outcomes when compared with no-treatment control, and alternative intervention approaches.

Keywords: wellness, college students, solution-focused, prevention

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864 Green Extraction Technologies of Flavonoids Containing Pharmaceuticals

Authors: Lamzira Ebralidze, Aleksandre Tsertsvadze, Dali Berashvili, Aliosha Bakuridze

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Nowadays, there is an increasing demand for biologically active substances from vegetable, animal, and mineral resources. In terms of the use of natural compounds, pharmaceutical, cosmetic, and nutrition industry has big interest. The biggest drawback of conventional extraction methods is the need to use a large volume of organic extragents. The removal of the organic solvent is a multi-stage process. And their absolute removal cannot be achieved, and they still appear in the final product as impurities. A large amount of waste containing organic solvent damages not only human health but also has the harmful effects of the environment. Accordingly, researchers are focused on improving the extraction methods, which aims to minimize the use of organic solvents and energy sources, using alternate solvents and renewable raw materials. In this context, green extraction principles were formed. Green Extraction is a need of today’s environment. Green Extraction is the concept, and it totally corresponds to the challenges of the 21st century. The extraction of biologically active compounds based on green extraction principles is vital from the view of preservation and maintaining biodiversity. Novel technologies of green extraction are known, such as "cold methods" because during the extraction process, the temperature is relatively lower, and it doesn’t have a negative impact on the stability of plant compounds. Novel technologies provide great opportunities to reduce or replace the use of organic toxic solvents, the efficiency of the process, enhance excretion yield, and improve the quality of the final product. The objective of the research is the development of green technologies of flavonoids containing preparations. Methodology: At the first stage of the research, flavonoids containing preparations (Tincture Herba Leonuri, flamine, rutine) were prepared based on conventional extraction methods: maceration, bismaceration, percolation, repercolation. At the same time, the same preparations were prepared based on green technologies, microwave-assisted, UV extraction methods. Product quality characteristics were evaluated by pharmacopeia methods. At the next stage of the research technological - economic characteristics and cost efficiency of products prepared based on conventional and novel technologies were determined. For the extraction of flavonoids, water is used as extragent. Surface-active substances are used as co-solvent in order to reduce surface tension, which significantly increases the solubility of polyphenols in water. Different concentrations of water-glycerol mixture, cyclodextrin, ionic solvent were used for the extraction process. In vitro antioxidant activity will be studied by the spectrophotometric method, using DPPH (2,2-diphenyl-1- picrylhydrazyl) as an antioxidant assay. The advantage of green extraction methods is also the possibility of obtaining higher yield in case of low temperature, limitation extraction process of undesirable compounds. That is especially important for the extraction of thermosensitive compounds and maintaining their stability.

Keywords: extraction, green technologies, natural resources, flavonoids

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863 Pathogenic Escherichia Coli Strains and Their Antibiotic Susceptibility Profiles in Cases of Child Diarrhea at Addis Ababa University, College of Health Sciences, Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Authors: Benyam Zenebe, Tesfaye Sisay, Gurja Belay, Workabeba Abebe

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Background: The prevalence and antibiogram of pathogenic E. coli strains, which cause diarrhea vary from region to region, and even within countries in the same geographical area. In Ethiopia, diagnostic approaches to E. coli induced diarrhea in children less than five years of age are not standardized. The aim of this study was to determine the involvement of pathogenic E. coli strains in child diarrhea and determine the antibiograms of the isolates in children less than 5 years of age with diarrhea at Addis Ababa University College of Health Sciences TikurAnbessa Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods: A purposive study that included 98 diarrheic children less than five years of age was conducted at Addis Ababa University College of Health Sciences, TikurAnbessa Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia to detect pathogenic E. coli biotypes. Stool culture was used to identify presumptive E. coliisolates. Presumptive isolates were confirmed by biochemical tests, and antimicrobial susceptibility tests were performed on confirmed E. coli isolates by the disk diffusion method. DNA was extracted from confirmed isolates by a heating method and subjected to Polymerase Chain Reaction or the presence of virulence genes. Amplified PCR products were analyzed by agarose gel electrophoresis. Data were collected on child demographics and clinical conditions using administered questionnaires. The prevalence of E. coli strains from the total diarrheic children, and the prevalence of pathogenic strains from total E. coli isolates along with their susceptibility profiles; the distribution of pathogenic E.coli biotypes among different age groups and between the sexes were determined by using descriptive statistics. Result: Out of 98 stool specimens collected from diarrheic children less than 5 years of age, 75 presumptive E. coli isolates were identified by culture; further confirmation by biochemical tests showed that only 56 of the isolates were E. coli; 29 of the isolates were found in male children and 27 of them in female children. Out of the 58 isolates of E. coli, 25 pathotypes belonging to different classes of pathogenic strains: STEC, EPEC, EHEC, EAEC were detected by using the PCR technique. Pathogenic E. coli exhibited high rates of antibiotic resistance to many of the antibiotics tested. Moreover, they exhibited multiple drug resistance. Conclusion: This study found that the isolation rate of E. coli and the involvement of antibiotic-resistant pathogenic E. coli in diarrheic children is prominent, and hence focus should be given on the diagnosis and antimicrobial sensitivity testing of pathogenic E. coli at Addis Ababa University College of Health Sciences TikurAnbessa Specialized Hospital. Among antibiotics tested, Cefotitan could be a drug of choice to treat E. coli.

Keywords: antibiotic susceptibility profile, children, diarrhea, E. coli, pathogenic

Procedia PDF Downloads 227
862 In vivo Estimation of Mutation Rate of the Aleutian Mink Disease Virus

Authors: P.P. Rupasinghe, A.H. Farid

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The Aleutian mink disease virus (AMDV, Carnivore amdoparvovirus 1) causes persistent infection, plasmacytosis, and formation and deposition of immune complexes in various organs in adult mink, leading to glomerulonephritis, arteritis and sometimes death. The disease has no cure nor an effective vaccine, and identification and culling of mink positive for anti-AMDV antibodies have not been successful in controlling the infection in many countries. The failure to eradicate the virus from infected farms may be caused by keeping false-negative individuals on the farm, virus transmission from wild animals, or neighboring farms. The identification of sources of infection, which can be performed by comparing viral sequences, is important in the success of viral eradication programs. High mutation rates could cause inaccuracies when viral sequences are used to trace back an infection to its origin. There is no published information on the mutation rate of AMDV either in vivo or in vitro. The in vivo estimation is the most accurate method, but it is difficult to perform because of the inherent technical complexities, namely infecting live animals, the unknown numbers of viral generations (i.e., infection cycles), the removal of deleterious mutations over time and genetic drift. The objective of this study was to determine the mutation rate of AMDV on which no information was available. A homogenate was prepared from the spleen of one naturally infected American mink (Neovison vison) from Nova Scotia, Canada (parental template). The near full-length genome of this isolate (91.6%, 4,143 bp) was bidirectionally sequenced. A group of black mink was inoculated with this homogenate (descendant mink). Spleen sampled were collected from 10 descendant mink after 16 weeks post-inoculation (wpi) and from anther 10 mink after 176 wpi, and their near-full length genomes were bi-directionally sequenced. Sequences of these mink were compared with each other and with the sequence of the parental template. The number of nucleotide substitutions at 176 wpi was 3.1 times greater than that at 16 wpi (113 vs 36) whereas the estimates of mutation rate at 176 wpi was 3.1 times lower than that at 176 wpi (2.85×10-3 vs 9.13×10-4 substitutions/ site/ year), showing a decreasing trend in the mutation rate per unit of time. Although there is no report on in vivo estimate of the mutation rate of DNA viruses in animals using the same method which was used in the current study, these estimates are at the higher range of reported values for DNA viruses determined by various techniques. These high estimates are logical based on the wide range of diversity and pathogenicity of AMDV isolates. The results suggest that increases in the number of nucleotide substitutions over time and subsequent divergence make it difficult to accurately trace back AMDV isolates to their origin when several years elapsed between the two samplings.

Keywords: Aleutian mink disease virus, American mink, mutation rate, nucleotide substitution

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861 Advancing Equitable Healthcare for Trans and Gender-Diverse Students: A Community-Based Participatory Action Project

Authors: Al Huuskonen, Clio Lake, K. M. Naude, Polina Petlitsyna, Sorsha Henning, Julia Wimmers-Klick

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This project presents the outcomes of a community-based participatory action initiative aimed at advocating for equitable healthcare and human rights for trans, two-spirit, and gender-diverse individuals, building upon the University of British Columbia (UBC) Trans Coalition's ongoing efforts. Participatory Action Research (PAR) was chosen as the research method with the goal of improving trans rights on the UBC campus, particularly regarding equitable access to healthcare. PAR involves active community contribution throughout the research process, which in this case was done by way of liaising with student resource groups and advocacy leaders. The goals of this project were as follows: a) identify gaps in gender-affirming healthcare for UBC students by consulting the community and collaborating with UBC services, b) develop an information package outlining provincial and university-based health insurance for gender-affirming care (including hormone therapy and surgeries), FAQs, and resources for UBC's trans students, c) make this package available to UBC students and other national transgender advocacy organizations. The initiative successfully expanded the UBC AMS Student Health and Dental Plan to include gender-affirming procedural coverage, developed a care access guide for students, and advocated for improved health records inclusivity, mechanisms for trans students to report negative care experiences, and increased access to gender-affirming primary care through the on-campus health clinic. Collaboration with other universities' pride organizations and Trans Care BC yielded positive outcomes through broader coalition building and resource sharing. Ongoing efforts are underway to update provincial policies, particularly through expanding coverage under fair pharma care and addressing the compounding effects of the primary care crisis for trans individuals. The project's tangible results include improved trans rights on campus, especially in terms of healthcare access. Expanding healthcare coverage through student care benefits thousands of students, making the ability to undergo important affirming procedures more affordable. Providing students with information on extended coverage options and communication with their doctors further removes barriers to care and positively impacts student wellbeing. This initiative demonstrates the effectiveness of community-based participatory action in advancing equitable healthcare for trans and gender-diverse individuals and serves as a model for other institutions and organizations striving to promote inclusivity and advocate for marginalized populations' rights.

Keywords: equitable healthcare, trans and gender-diverse individuals, inclusivity, participatory action research project

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860 Effect of Maternal Factors and C-Peptide and Insulin Levels in Cord Blood on the Birth Weight of Newborns: A Preliminary Study from Southern Sri Lanka

Authors: M. H. A. D. de Silva, R. P. Hewawasam, M. A. G. Iresha

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Macrosomia is common in infants born to not only women diagnosed with gestational diabetes mellitus but also non-diabetic obese women. Maternal Body Mass Index (BMI) correlates with the incidence of large for gestational age infants. Obesity has reached epidemic levels in modern societies. During the past two decades, obesity in children and adolescents has risen significantly in Asian populations including Sri Lanka. There is increasing evidence to believe that infants who are born large for gestational age are more likely to be obese in childhood and adolescence and are at risk of cardiovascular and metabolic complications later in life. It is also established that Asians have lower skeletal muscle mass, low bone mineral content and excess body fat for a given BMI indicating a genetic predisposition in the occurrence of obesity. The objective of this study is to determine the effect of maternal weight, weight gain during pregnancy, c-peptide and insulin concentrations in the cord blood on the birth of appropriate for and large for gestational age infants in a tertiary care center in Southern Sri Lanka. Umbilical cord blood was collected from 90 newborns (Male 40, Female 50; gestational age 35-42 weeks) after double clamping the umbilical cord before separation of the placenta and the concentration of insulin and C-peptide were measured by ELISA technique. Anthropometric parameters of the newborn such as birth weight, length, ponderal index, occipital frontal, chest, hip and calf circumferences were measured, and characteristics of the mother were collected. The relationship between insulin, C-peptide and anthropometrics were assessed by Spearman correlation. The multiple logistic regression analysis examined influences of maternal weight, weight gain during pregnancy, C-peptide and insulin concentrations in cord blood as covariates on the birth of large for gestational age infants. A significant difference (P<0.001) was observed between the insulin levels of infants born large for gestational age (18.73 ± 0.52 µlU/ml) and appropriate for gestational age (13.08 ± 0.56 µlU/ml). Consistently, A significant decrease in concentration (41.68%, P<0.001) was observed between C-peptide levels of infants born large for gestational age and appropriate for gestational age. Cord blood insulin and C-peptide levels had a significant correlation with birth weight (r=0.35, P<0.05) of the newborn at delivery. Maternal weight and BMI which are indicators of maternal nutrition were proven to be directly correlated with birth weight and length. To our knowledge, this relationship was investigated for the first time in a Sri Lankan setting and was also evident in our results. This study confirmed the fact that insulin and C-peptide play a major role in regulating fetal growth. According to the results obtained in this study, we can suggest that the increased BMI of the mother has a direct influence on increased maternal insulin secretion, which may subsequently affect cord insulin and C-peptide levels and also birth weight of the infant.

Keywords: C-peptide, insulin, large for gestational age, maternal weight

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859 An Inquiry into the Usage of Complex Systems Models to Examine the Effects of the Agent Interaction in a Political Economic Environment

Authors: Ujjwall Sai Sunder Uppuluri

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Group theory is a powerful tool that researchers can use to provide a structural foundation for their Agent Based Models. These Agent Based models are argued by this paper to be the future of the Social Science Disciplines. More specifically, researchers can use them to apply evolutionary theory to the study of complex social systems. This paper illustrates one such example of how theoretically an Agent Based Model can be formulated from the application of Group Theory, Systems Dynamics, and Evolutionary Biology to analyze the strategies pursued by states to mitigate risk and maximize usage of resources to achieve the objective of economic growth. This example can be applied to other social phenomena and this makes group theory so useful to the analysis of complex systems, because the theory provides the mathematical formulaic proof for validating the complex system models that researchers build and this will be discussed by the paper. The aim of this research, is to also provide researchers with a framework that can be used to model political entities such as states on a 3-dimensional plane. The x-axis representing resources (tangible and intangible) available to them, y the risks, and z the objective. There also exist other states with different constraints pursuing different strategies to climb the mountain. This mountain’s environment is made up of risks the state faces and resource endowments. This mountain is also layered in the sense that it has multiple peaks that must be overcome to reach the tallest peak. A state that sticks to a single strategy or pursues a strategy that is not conducive to the climbing of that specific peak it has reached is not able to continue advancement. To overcome the obstacle in the state’s path, it must innovate. Based on the definition of a group, we can categorize each state as being its own group. Each state is a closed system, one which is made up of micro level agents who have their own vectors and pursue strategies (actions) to achieve some sub objectives. The state also has an identity, the inverse being anarchy and/or inaction. Finally, the agents making up a state interact with each other through competition and collaboration to mitigate risks and achieve sub objectives that fall within the primary objective. Thus, researchers can categorize the state as an organism that reflects the sum of the output of the interactions pursued by agents at the micro level. When states compete, they employ a strategy and that state which has the better strategy (reflected by the strategies pursued by her parts) is able to out-compete her counterpart to acquire some resource, mitigate some risk or fulfil some objective. This paper will attempt to illustrate how group theory combined with evolutionary theory and systems dynamics can allow researchers to model the long run development, evolution, and growth of political entities through the use of a bottom up approach.

Keywords: complex systems, evolutionary theory, group theory, international political economy

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858 Psychological Predictors in Performance: An Exploratory Study of a Virtual Ultra-Marathon

Authors: Michael McTighe

Abstract:

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic caused the cancellation of many large-scale in-person sporting events, which led to an increase in the availability of virtual ultra-marathons. This study intended to assess how participation in virtual long distances races relates to levels of physical activity for an extended period of time. Moreover, traditional ultra-marathons are known for being not only physically demanding, but also mentally and emotionally challenging. A second component of this study was to assess how psychological contructs related to emotion regulation and mental toughness predict overall performance in the sport. Method: 83 virtual runners participating in a four-month 1000-kilometer race with the option to exceed 1000 kilometers completed a questionnaire exploring demographics, their performance, and experience in the virtual race. Participants also completed the Difficulties in Emotions Regulation Scale (DERS) and the Sports Mental Toughness Questionnaire (SMTQ). Logistics regressions assessed these constructs’ utility in predicting completion of the 1000-kilometer distance in the time allotted. Multiple regression was employed to predict the total distance traversed during the fourmonth race beyond 1000-kilometers. Result: Neither mental toughness nor emotional regulation was a significant predictor of completing the virtual race’s basic 1000-kilometer finish. However, both variables included together were marginally significant predictors of total miles traversed over the entire event beyond 1000 K (p = .051). Additionally, participation in the event promoted an increase in healthy activity with participants running and walking significantly more in the four months during the event than the four months leading up to it. Discussion: This research intended to explore how psychological constructs relate to performance in a virtual type of endurance event, and how involvement in these types of events related to levels of activity. Higher levels of mental toughness and lower levels in difficulties in emotion regulation were associated with greater performance, and participation in the event promoted an increase in athletic involvement. Future psychological skill training aimed at improving emotion regulation and mental toughness may be used to enhance athletic performance in these sports, and future investigations into these events could explore how general participation may influence these constructs over time. Finally, these results suggest that participation in this logistically accessible, and affordable type of sport can promote greater involvement in healthy activities related to running and walking.

Keywords: virtual races, emotion regulation, mental toughness, ultra-marathon, predictors in performance

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857 Rheological Properties of Thermoresponsive Poly(N-Vinylcaprolactam)-g-Collagen Hydrogel

Authors: Serap Durkut, A. Eser Elcin, Y. Murat Elcin

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Stimuli-sensitive polymeric hydrogels have received extensive attention in the biomedical field due to their sensitivity to physical and chemical stimuli (temperature, pH, ionic strength, light, etc.). This study describes the rheological properties of a novel thermoresponsive poly(N-vinylcaprolactam)-g-collagen hydrogel. In the study, we first synthesized a facile and novel synthetic carboxyl group-terminated thermo-responsive poly(N-vinylcaprolactam)-COOH (PNVCL-COOH) via free radical polymerization. Further, this compound was effectively grafted with native collagen, by utilizing the covalent bond between the carboxylic acid groups at the end of the chains and amine groups of the collagen using cross-linking agent (EDC/NHS), forming PNVCL-g-Col. Newly-formed hybrid hydrogel displayed novel properties, such as increased mechanical strength and thermoresponsive characteristics. PNVCL-g-Col showed low critical solution temperature (LCST) at 38ºC, which is very close to the body temperature. Rheological studies determine structural–mechanical properties of the materials and serve as a valuable tool for characterizing. The rheological properties of hydrogels are described in terms of two dynamic mechanical properties: the elastic modulus G′ (also known as dynamic rigidity) representing the reversible stored energy of the system, and the viscous modulus G″, representing the irreversible energy loss. In order to characterize the PNVCL-g-Col, the rheological properties were measured in terms of the function of temperature and time during phase transition. Below the LCST, favorable interactions allowed the dissolution of the polymer in water via hydrogen bonding. At temperatures above the LCST, PNVCL molecules within PNVCL-g-Col aggregated due to dehydration, causing the hydrogel structure to become dense. When the temperature reached ~36ºC, both the G′ and G″ values crossed over. This indicates that PNVCL-g-Col underwent a sol-gel transition, forming an elastic network. Following temperature plateau at 38ºC, near human body temperature the sample displayed stable elastic network characteristics. The G′ and G″ values of the PNVCL-g-Col solutions sharply increased at 6-9 minute interval, due to rapid transformation into gel-like state and formation of elastic networks. Copolymerization with collagen leads to an increase in G′, as collagen structure contains a flexible polymer chain, which bestows its elastic properties. Elasticity of the proposed structure correlates with the number of intermolecular cross-links in the hydrogel network, increasing viscosity. However, at 8 minutes, G′ and G″ values sharply decreased for pure collagen solutions due to the decomposition of the elastic and viscose network. Complex viscosity is related to the mechanical performance and resistance opposing deformation of the hydrogel. Complex viscosity of PNVCL-g-Col hydrogel was drastically changed with temperature and the mechanical performance of PNVCL-g-Col hydrogel network increased, exhibiting lesser deformation. Rheological assessment of the novel thermo-responsive PNVCL-g-Col hydrogel, exhibited that the network has stronger mechanical properties due to both permanent stable covalent bonds and physical interactions, such as hydrogen- and hydrophobic bonds depending on temperature.

Keywords: poly(N-vinylcaprolactam)-g-collagen, thermoresponsive polymer, rheology, elastic modulus, stimuli-sensitive

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856 Young People’s Perceptions of Disability: The New Generation’s View of a Public Seen as Vulnerable and Marginalized

Authors: Ulysse Lecomte, Maryline Thenot

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For a long time, disabled people lived in isolation within the family environment, with little interaction with the outside world and a high risk of social exclusion. However, in a number of countries, progress has been made thanks to changes in legislation on the social integration of disabled people, a significant change in attitudes, and the development of CSR. But the problem of their social, economic, and professional exclusion persists and has been further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. This societal phenomenon is sufficiently important to be the subject of management science research. We have therefore focused our work on society's current perception of people with disabilities and their possible integration. Our aim is to find out what levers could be put in place to bring about positive change in the situation. We have chosen to focus on the perception of young people in France, who are the new generation responsible for the future of our society and from whom tomorrow's decisionmakers, future employers, and stakeholders who can influence the living conditions of disabled people will be drawn. Our study sample corresponds to the 18-30 age group, which is the population of young adults likely to have sufficient experience and maturity. The aim of this study is not only to find out how this population currently perceives disability but also to identify the factors influencing this perception and the most effective levers for action to act positively on this phenomenon and thus promote better social integration of people with disabilities in the future. The methodology is based on theoretical and empirical research. The literature review includes a historical and etymological approach to disability, a definition of the different concepts of disability, an approach to disability as a vector of social exclusion, and the role of perception and representations in defining the social image of disability. This literature review is followed by an empirical part carried out by means of a questionnaire administered to 110 young people aged 18 to 30. Analysis of our results suggests that, despite a recent improvement, disabled people are still perceived as vulnerable and socially marginalised. The following factors stand out as having a significant influence (positive or negative) on the perception of disability: the individual's familiarity with the 'world of disability', cultural factors, the degree of 'visibility' of the disability and the empathy level of the disabled person him/herself. Others, on the other hand, such as socio-political and economic factors, have little impact on this perception. In addition, it is possible to classify the various levers of action likely to improve the social perception of disability according to their degree of effectiveness. Our study population prioritised training initiatives for the various players and stakeholders (teachers, students, disabled people themselves, companies, sports clubs, etc.). This was followed by communication, ecommunication and media campaigns in favour of disability. Lastly, the sample was judged as 'less effective' positive discrimination actions such as setting a minimum percentage for the representation of disabled people in various fields (studies, employment, politics ...).

Keywords: disability, perception, social image, young people, influencing factors, levers for action

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855 Characterization of the MOSkin Dosimeter for Accumulated Dose Assessment in Computed Tomography

Authors: Lenon M. Pereira, Helen J. Khoury, Marcos E. A. Andrade, Dean L. Cutajar, Vinicius S. M. Barros, Anatoly B. Rozenfeld

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With the increase of beam widths and the advent of multiple-slice and helical scanners, concerns related to the current dose measurement protocols and instrumentation in computed tomography (CT) have arisen. The current methodology of dose evaluation, which is based on the measurement of the integral of a single slice dose profile using a 100 mm long cylinder ionization chamber (Ca,100 and CPPMA, 100), has been shown to be inadequate for wide beams as it does not collect enough of the scatter-tails to make an accurate measurement. In addition, a long ionization chamber does not offer a good representation of the dose profile when tube current modulation is used. An alternative approach has been suggested by translating smaller detectors through the beam plane and assessing the accumulated dose trough the integral of the dose profile, which can be done for any arbitrary length in phantoms or in the air. For this purpose, a MOSFET dosimeter of small dosimetric volume was used. One of its recently designed versions is known as the MOSkin, which is developed by the Centre for Medical Radiation Physics at the University of Wollongong, and measures the radiation dose at a water equivalent depth of 0.07 mm, allowing the evaluation of skin dose when placed at the surface, or internal point doses when placed within a phantom. Thus, the aim of this research was to characterize the response of the MOSkin dosimeter for X-ray CT beams and to evaluate its application for the accumulated dose assessment. Initially, tests using an industrial x-ray unit were carried out at the Laboratory of Ionization Radiation Metrology (LMRI) of Federal University of Pernambuco, in order to investigate the sensitivity, energy dependence, angular dependence, and reproducibility of the dose response for the device for the standard radiation qualities RQT 8, RQT 9 and RQT 10. Finally, the MOSkin was used for the accumulated dose evaluation of scans using a Philips Brilliance 6 CT unit, with comparisons made between the CPPMA,100 value assessed with a pencil ionization chamber (PTW Freiburg TW 30009). Both dosimeters were placed in the center of a PMMA head phantom (diameter of 16 cm) and exposed in the axial mode with collimation of 9 mm, 250 mAs and 120 kV. The results have shown that the MOSkin response was linear with doses in the CT range and reproducible (98.52%). The sensitivity for a single MOSkin in mV/cGy was as follows: 9.208, 7.691 and 6.723 for the RQT 8, RQT 9 and RQT 10 beams qualities respectively. The energy dependence varied up to a factor of ±1.19 among those energies and angular dependence was not greater than 7.78% within the angle range from 0 to 90 degrees. The accumulated dose and the CPMMA, 100 value were 3,97 and 3,79 cGy respectively, which were statistically equivalent within the 95% confidence level. The MOSkin was shown to be a good alternative for CT dose profile measurements and more than adequate to provide accumulated dose assessments for CT procedures.

Keywords: computed tomography dosimetry, MOSFET, MOSkin, semiconductor dosimetry

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854 Survival Analysis after a First Ischaemic Stroke Event: A Case-Control Study in the Adult Population of England.

Authors: Padma Chutoo, Elena Kulinskaya, Ilyas Bakbergenuly, Nicholas Steel, Dmitri Pchejetski

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Stroke is associated with a significant risk of morbidity and mortality. There is scarcity of research on the long-term survival after first-ever ischaemic stroke (IS) events in England with regards to effects of different medical therapies and comorbidities. The objective of this study was to model the all-cause mortality after an IS diagnosis in the adult population of England. Using a retrospective case-control design, we extracted the electronic medical records of patients born prior to or in year 1960 in England with a first-ever ischaemic stroke diagnosis from January 1986 to January 2017 within the Health and Improvement Network (THIN) database. Participants with a history of ischaemic stroke were matched to 3 controls by sex and age at diagnosis and general practice. The primary outcome was the all-cause mortality. The hazards of the all-cause mortality were estimated using a Weibull-Cox survival model which included both scale and shape effects and a shared random effect of general practice. The model included sex, birth cohort, socio-economic status, comorbidities and medical therapies. 20,250 patients with a history of IS (cases) and 55,519 controls were followed up to 30 years. From 2008 to 2015, the one-year all-cause mortality for the IS patients declined with an absolute change of -0.5%. Preventive treatments to cases increased considerably over time. These included prescriptions of statins and antihypertensives. However, prescriptions for antiplatelet drugs decreased in the routine general practice since 2010. The survival model revealed a survival benefit of antiplatelet treatment to stroke survivors with hazard ratio (HR) of 0.92 (0.90 – 0.94). IS diagnosis had significant interactions with gender and age at entry and hypertension diagnosis. IS diagnosis was associated with high risk of all-cause mortality with HR= 3.39 (3.05-3.72) for cases compared to controls. Hypertension was associated with poor survival with HR = 4.79 (4.49 - 5.09) for hypertensive cases relative to non-hypertensive controls, though the detrimental effect of hypertension has not reached significance for hypertensive controls, HR = 1.19(0.82-1.56). This study of English primary care data showed that between 2008 and 2015, the rates of prescriptions of stroke preventive treatments increased, and a short-term all-cause mortality after IS stroke declined. However, stroke resulted in poor long-term survival. Hypertension, a modifiable risk factor, was found to be associated with poor survival outcomes in IS patients. Antiplatelet drugs were found to be protective to survival. Better efforts are required to reduce the burden of stroke through health service development and primary prevention.

Keywords: general practice, hazard ratio, health improvement network (THIN), ischaemic stroke, multiple imputation, Weibull-Cox model.

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853 Impact of Financial Factors on Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Sector

Authors: Lopamudra D. Satpathy, Bani Chatterjee, Jitendra Mahakud

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The rapid economic growth in terms of output and investment necessitates a substantial growth of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of firms which is an indicator of an economy’s technological change. The strong empirical relationship between financial sector development and economic growth clearly indicates that firms financing decisions do affect their levels of output via their investment decisions. Hence it establishes a linkage between the financial factors and productivity growth of the firms. To achieve the smooth and continuous economic growth over time, it is imperative to understand the financial channel that serves as one of the vital channels. The theoretical or logical argument behind this linkage is that when the internal financial capital is not sufficient enough for the investment, the firms always rely upon the external sources of finance. But due to the frictions and existence of information asymmetric behavior, it is always costlier for the firms to raise the external capital from the market, which in turn affect their investment sentiment and productivity. This kind of financial position of the firms puts heavy pressure on their productive activities. Keeping in view this theoretical background, the present study has tried to analyze the role of both external and internal financial factors (leverage, cash flow and liquidity) on the determination of total factor productivity of the firms of manufacturing industry and its sub-industries, maintaining a set of firm specific variables as control variables (size, age and disembodied technological intensity). An estimate of total factor productivity of the Indian manufacturing industry and sub-industries is computed using a semi-parametric approach, i.e., Levinsohn- Petrin method. It establishes the relationship between financial factors and productivity growth of 652 firms using a dynamic panel GMM method covering the time period between 1997-98 and 2012-13. From the econometric analyses, it has been found that the internal cash flow has a positive and significant impact on the productivity of overall manufacturing sector. The other financial factors like leverage and liquidity also play the significant role in the determination of total factor productivity of the Indian manufacturing sector. The significant role of internal cash flow on determination of firm-level productivity suggests that access to external finance is not available to Indian companies easily. Further, the negative impact of leverage on productivity could be due to the less developed bond market in India. These findings have certain implications for the policy makers to take various policy reforms to develop the external bond market and easily workout through which the financially constrained companies will be able to raise the financial capital in a cost-effective manner and would be able to influence their investments in the highly productive activities, which would help for the acceleration of economic growth.

Keywords: dynamic panel, financial factors, manufacturing sector, total factor productivity

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852 Reuse of Historic Buildings for Tourism: Policy Gaps

Authors: Joseph Falzon, Margaret Nelson

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Background: Regeneration and re-use of abandoned historic buildings present a continuous challenge for policy makers and stakeholders in the tourism and leisure industry. Obsolete historic buildings provide great potential for tourism and leisure accommodation, presenting unique heritage experiences to travellers and host communities. Contemporary demands in the hospitality industry continuously require higher standards, some of which are in conflict with heritage conservation principles. Objective: The aim of this research paper is to critically discuss regeneration policies with stakeholders of the tourism and leisure industry and to examine current practices in policy development and the resultant impact of policies on the Maltese tourism and leisure industry. Research Design: Six semi-structured interviews with stakeholders involved in the tourism and leisure industry participated in the research. A number of measures were taken to reduce bias and thus improve trustworthiness. Clear statements of the purpose of the research study were provided at the start of each interview to reduce expectancy bias. The interviews were semi-structured to minimise interviewer bias. Interviewees were allowed to expand and elaborate as necessary, with only necessary probing questions, to allow free expression of opinion and practices. Interview guide was submitted to participants at least two weeks before the interview to allow participants to prepare for the interview and prevent recall bias during the interview as much as possible. Interview questions and probes contained both positive and negative aspects to prevent interviewer bias. Policy documents were available during the interview to prevent recall bias. Interview recordings were transcribed ‘intelligent’ verbatim. Analysis was carried out using thematic analysis with the coding frame developed independently by two researchers. All phases of the study were governed by research ethics. Findings: Findings were grouped in main themes: financing of regeneration, governance, legislation and policies. Other key issues included value of historic buildings and approaches for regeneration. Whist regeneration of historic buildings was noted, participants discussed a number of barriers that hindered regeneration. Stakeholders identified gaps in policies and gaps at policy implementation stages. European Union funding policies facilitated regeneration initiatives but funding criteria based on economic deliverables presented the intangible heritage gap. Stakeholders identified niche markets for heritage tourism accommodation. Lack of research-based policies was also identified. Conclusion: Potential of regeneration is hindered by inadequate legal framework that supports contemporary needs of the tourism industry. Policies should be developed by active stakeholder participation. Adequate funding schemes have to support the tangible and intangible components of the built heritage.

Keywords: governance, historic buildings, policy, tourism

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851 An Anthropological Insight into Farming Practices and Cultural Life of Farmers in Sarawan Village, District Faridkot, Punjab

Authors: Amandeep Kaur

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Farming is one of the most influential traditions which started around 10000 BC and has revolutionized human civilization. It is believed that farming originated at a separate location. Thus it has a great impact on local culture, which in turn gave rise to diversified farming practices. Farming activities are influenced by the culture of a particular region or community as local people have their own knowledge and belief system about soil and crops. With the inception of the Green Revolution, 'a high tech machinery model' in Punjab, various traditional farming methods and techniques changed. The present research concentrates on the local knowledge of farmers and local farming systems from an anthropological perspective. In view of the prevailing agrarian crisis in Punjab, this research is focused on farmer’s experiences and their perception regarding farming practices. Thus an attempt has to be made to focus on the local knowledge, perception, and experience of farmers for eco-friendly and sustainable agricultural development. Farmers voices are used to understand the relationship between farming practices and socio-cultural life of farmers in Faridkot district, Punjab. The research aims to comprehend the nature of changes taking place in the socio-cultural life of people with the development of capitalism and agricultural modernization. The study is based on qualitative methods of ethnography in Sarawan village of Faridkot District. Inferences drawn from in-depth case studies collected from 60 agricultural households lead to the concept of the process of diffusion, innovation, and adoption of farming technology, a variety of crops and the dissemination of agricultural skills regarding various cultural farming practices. The data is based on random sampling; the respondents were both males and females above the age of 18 years to attain a holistic understanding across the generations. A Quasi-participant observation related to lifestyle, the standard of living, and various farming practices performed by them were done. Narratives derived from the fieldwork depicts that farmers usually oppose the restrictions imposed by the government on certain farming practices, especially ban on stubble burning. This paper presents the narratives of farmers regarding the dissemination of awareness about the use of new varieties of seeds, technology, fertilizers, pesticides, etc. The study reveals that farming systems have developed in ways reflecting the activities and choices of farmers influenced by environmental, socio-cultural, economic, and political situations. Modern farming practices have forced small farmers into debt as farmers feel pride in buying new machinery. It has also led to the loss of work culture and excessive use of drugs among youngsters. Even laborers did not want to work on the land with cultivating farmers primarily for social and political reasons. Due to lack of proper marketing of crops, there is a continuum of the wheat-rice cycle instead of crop diversification in Punjab. Change in the farming system also affects the social structure of society. Agricultural modernization has commercialized the socio-cultural relations in Punjab and is slowly urbanizing the rural landscape revolutionizing the traditional social relations to capitalistic relations.

Keywords: agricultural modernization, capitalism, farming practices, narratives

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850 Use of PACER Application as Physical Activity Assessment Tool: Results of a Reliability and Validity Study

Authors: Carine Platat, Fatima Qshadi, Ghofran Kayed, Nour Hussein, Amjad Jarrar, Habiba Ali

Abstract:

Nowadays, smartphones are very popular. They are offering a variety of easy-to-use and free applications among which step counters and fitness tests. The number of users is huge making of such applications a potentially efficient new strategy to encourage people to become more active. Nonetheless, data on their reliability and validity are very scarce and when available, they are often negative and contradictory. Besides, weight status, which is likely to introduce a bias in the physical activity assessment, was not often considered. Hence, the use of these applications as motivational tool, assessment tool and in research is questionable. PACER is one of the free step counters application. Even though it is one of the best rated free application by users, it has never been tested for reliability and validity. Prior any use of PACER, this remains to be investigated. The objective of this work is to investigate the reliability and validity of the smartphone application PACER in measuring the number of steps and in assessing the cardiorespiratory fitness by the 6 minutes walking test. 20 overweight or obese students (10 male and 10 female) were recruited at the United Arab Emirate University, aged between 18 and 25 years old. Reliability and validity were tested in real life conditions and in controlled conditions by using a treadmill. Test-retest experiments were done with PACER on 2 days separated by a week in real life conditions (24 hours each time) and in controlled conditions (30 minutes on treadmill, 3km/h). Validity was tested against the pedometer OMRON in the same conditions. During treadmill test, video was recorded and steps numbers were compared between PACER, pedometer and video. The validity of PACER in estimating the cardiorespiratory fitness (VO2max) as part of the 6 minutes walking test (6MWT) was studied against the 20m shuttle running test. Reliability was studied by calculating intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), 95% confidence interval (95%CI) and by Bland-Altman plots. Validity was studied by calculating Spearman correlation coefficient (rho) and Bland-Altman plots. PACER reliability was good in both male and female in real life conditions (p≤10-3) but only in female in controlled conditions (p=0.01). PACER was valid against OMRON pedometer in male and female in real life conditions (rho=0.94, p≤10-3 ; rho=0.64, p=0.01, in male and female respectively). In controlled conditions, PACER was not valid against pedometer. But, PACER was valid against video in female (rho=0.72, p≤10-3). PACER was valid against the shuttle run test in male and female (rho-=0.66, p=0.01 ; rho=0.51, p=0.04) to estimate VO2max. This study provides data on the reliability and viability of PACER in overweight or obese male and female young adults. Globally, PACER was shown as reliable and valid in real life conditions in overweight or obese male and female to count steps and assess fitness. This supports the use of PACER to assess and promote physical activity in clinical follow-up and community interventions.

Keywords: smartphone application, pacer, reliability, validity, steps, fitness, physical activity

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849 Wind Resource Classification and Feasibility of Distributed Generation for Rural Community Utilization in North Central Nigeria

Authors: O. D. Ohijeagbon, Oluseyi O. Ajayi, M. Ogbonnaya, Ahmeh Attabo

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This study analyzed the electricity generation potential from wind at seven sites spread across seven states of the North-Central region of Nigeria. Twenty-one years (1987 to 2007) wind speed data at a height of 10m were assessed from the Nigeria Meteorological Department, Oshodi. The data were subjected to different statistical tests and also compared with the two-parameter Weibull probability density function. The outcome shows that the monthly average wind speeds ranged between 2.2 m/s in November for Bida and 10.1 m/s in December for Jos. The yearly average ranged between 2.1m/s in 1987 for Bida and 11.8 m/s in 2002 for Jos. Also, the power density for each site was determined to range between 29.66 W/m2 for Bida and 864.96 W/m2 for Jos, Two parameters (k and c) of the Weibull distribution were found to range between 2.3 in Lokoja and 6.5 in Jos for k, while c ranged between 2.9 in Bida and 9.9m/s in Jos. These outcomes points to the fact that wind speeds at Jos, Minna, Ilorin, Makurdi and Abuja are compatible with the cut-in speeds of modern wind turbines and hence, may be economically feasible for wind-to-electricity at and above the height of 10 m. The study further assessed the potential and economic viability of standalone wind generation systems for off-grid rural communities located in each of the studied sites. A specific electric load profile was developed to suite hypothetic communities, each consisting of 200 homes, a school and a community health center. Assessment of the design that will optimally meet the daily load demand with a loss of load probability (LOLP) of 0.01 was performed, considering 2 stand-alone applications of wind and diesel. The diesel standalone system (DSS) was taken as the basis of comparison since the experimental locations have no connection to a distribution network. The HOMER® software optimizing tool was utilized to determine the optimal combination of system components that will yield the lowest life cycle cost. Sequel to the analysis for rural community utilization, a Distributed Generation (DG) analysis that considered the possibility of generating wind power in the MW range in order to take advantage of Nigeria’s tariff regime for embedded generation was carried out for each site. The DG design incorporated each community of 200 homes, freely catered for and offset from the excess electrical energy generated above the minimum requirement for sales to a nearby distribution grid. Wind DG systems were found suitable and viable in producing environmentally friendly energy in terms of life cycle cost and levelised value of producing energy at Jos ($0.14/kWh), Minna ($0.12/kWh), Ilorin ($0.09/kWh), Makurdi ($0.09/kWh), and Abuja ($0.04/kWh) at a particluar turbine hub height. These outputs reveal the value retrievable from the project after breakeven point as a function of energy consumed Based on the results, the study demonstrated that including renewable energy in the rural development plan will enhance fast upgrade of the rural communities.

Keywords: wind speed, wind power, distributed generation, cost per kilowatt-hour, clean energy, North-Central Nigeria

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848 Mealtime Talk as a Context of Learning: A Multiple Case Study of Australian Chinese Parents' Interaction with Their Preschool Aged Children at Dinner Table

Authors: Jiangbo Hu, Frances Hoyte, Haiquan Huang

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Research identifies that mealtime talk can be a significant learning context that provides children with rich experiences to foster their language and cognitive development. Middle-classed parents create an extended learning discourse for their children through sophisticated vocabulary, narrative and explanation genres at dinner table. However, mealtime opportunities vary with some parents having little interaction with their children and some parents focusing on directive of children’s behaviors. This study investigated five Chinese families’ parent-child interaction during mealtime that was rarely reported in the literature. The five families differ in terms of their living styles. Three families are from professional background where both mothers the fathers work in Australian companies and both of them present at dinner time. The other two families own business. The mothers are housemakers and the fathers are always absent at dinner time due to their busy business life. Employing case study method, the five Chinese families’ parent-child interactions at dinner table were recorded using a video camera. More than 3000 clauses were analyzed with the framework of 'systems of clause complexing' from systemic functional linguistic theory. The finding shows that mothers played a critical role in the interaction with their children by initiating most conversations. The three mothers from professional background tended to use more language in extending and expanding pattern that is beneficial for children’s language development and high level of thinking (e.g., logical thinking). The two house making mothers’ language focused more on the directive of their children’s social manners and dietary behaviors. The fathers though seemed to be less active, contributing to the richness of the conversation through their occasional props such as asking open questions or initiating a new topic. In general, the families from professional background were more advantaged in providing learning opportunities for their children at dinner table than the families running business were. The home experiences of Chinese children is an important topic in research due to the rapidly increasing number of Chinese children in Australia and other English speaking countries. Such research assist educators in the education of Chinese children with more awareness of Chinese children experiences at home that could be very unlike the settings in English schools. This study contributes to the research in this area through the analysis of language in parent-child interaction during mealtime, which is very different from previous research that mainly investigated Chinese families through survey and interview. The finding of different manners in language use between the professional families and business families has implication for the understanding of the variation of Chinese children’s home experiences that is influenced not only by parents’ socioeconomic status but their lifestyles.

Keywords: Chinese children, Chinese parents, mealtime talk, parent-child interaction

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847 Predictability of Kiremt Rainfall Variability over the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia on Dekadal and Monthly Time Scales Using Global Sea Surface Temperature

Authors: Kibrom Hadush

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Countries like Ethiopia, whose economy is mainly rain-fed dependent agriculture, are highly vulnerable to climate variability and weather extremes. Sub-seasonal (monthly) and dekadal forecasts are hence critical for crop production and water resource management. Therefore, this paper was conducted to study the predictability and variability of Kiremt rainfall over the northern half of Ethiopia on monthly and dekadal time scales in association with global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at different lag time. Trends in rainfall have been analyzed on annual, seasonal (Kiremt), monthly, and dekadal (June–September) time scales based on rainfall records of 36 meteorological stations distributed across four homogenous zones of the northern half of Ethiopia for the period 1992–2017. The results from the progressive Mann–Kendall trend test and the Sen’s slope method shows that there is no significant trend in the annual, Kiremt, monthly and dekadal rainfall total at most of the station's studies. Moreover, the rainfall in the study area varies spatially and temporally, and the distribution of the rainfall pattern increases from the northeast rift valley to northwest highlands. Methods of analysis include graphical correlation and multiple linear regression model are employed to investigate the association between the global SSTs and Kiremt rainfall over the homogeneous rainfall zones and to predict monthly and dekadal (June-September) rainfall using SST predictors. The results of this study show that in general, SST in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is the main source of the predictive skill of the Kiremt rainfall variability over the northern half of Ethiopia. The regional SSTs in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean as well contribute to the Kiremt rainfall variability over the study area. Moreover, the result of the correlation analysis showed that the decline of monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over most of the homogeneous zones of the study area are caused by the corresponding persistent warming of the SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean during the period 1992 - 2017. It is also found that the monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over the northern, northwestern highlands and northeastern lowlands of Ethiopia are positively correlated with the SST in the western equatorial Pacific, eastern and tropical northern the Atlantic Ocean. Furthermore, the SSTs in the western equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans are positively correlated to the Kiremt season rainfall in the northeastern highlands. Overall, the results showed that the prediction models using combined SSTs at various ocean regions (equatorial and tropical) performed reasonably well in the prediction (With R2 ranging from 30% to 65%) of monthly and dekadal rainfall and recommends it can be used for efficient prediction of Kiremt rainfall over the study area to aid with systematic and informed decision making within the agricultural sector.

Keywords: dekadal, Kiremt rainfall, monthly, Northern Ethiopia, sea surface temperature

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