Search results for: normalized power
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6621

Search results for: normalized power

5511 Simulation and Analysis of Different Parameters in Hydraulic Circuit Due to Leakage

Authors: J.Das, Gyan Wrat

Abstract:

Leakage is the main gradual failure in the fluid power system, which is usually caused by the impurity in the oil and wear of matching surfaces between parts and lead to the change of the gap value. When leakage occurs in the system, the oil will flow from the high pressure chamber into the low pressure chamber through the gap, causing the reduction of system flow as well as the loss of system pressure, resulting in the decreasing of system efficiency. In the fluid power system, internal leakage may occur in various components such as gear pump, reversing valve and hydraulic cylinder, and affect the system work performance. Therefore, component leakage in the fluid power system is selected as the study to characterize the leakage and the effect of leakage on the system. Effect of leakage on system pressure and cylinder displacement can be obtained using pressure sensors and the displacement sensor. The leakage can be varied by changing the orifice using a flow control valve. Hydraulic circuit for leakage will be developed in Matlab/Simulink environment and simulations will be done by changing different parameters.

Keywords: leakage causes, effect, analysis, MATLAB simulation, hydraulic circuit

Procedia PDF Downloads 397
5510 Deep Learning for Renewable Power Forecasting: An Approach Using LSTM Neural Networks

Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

Abstract:

Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: deep learning, long short term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 263
5509 Techno Economic Analysis for Solar PV and Hydro Power for Kafue Gorge Power Station

Authors: Elvis Nyirenda

Abstract:

This research study work was done to evaluate and propose an optimum measure to enhance the uptake of clean energy technologies such as solar photovoltaics, the study also aims at enhancing the country’s energy mix from the overdependence on hydro power which is susceptible to droughts and climate change challenges The country in the years 2015 - 2016 and 2018 - 2019 had received rainfall below average due to climate change and a shift in the weather pattern; this resulted in prolonged power outages and load shedding for more than 10 hours per day. ZESCO Limited, the utility company that owns infrastructure in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity (state-owned), is seeking alternative sources of energy in order to reduce the over-dependence on hydropower stations. One of the alternative sources of energy is Solar Energy from the sun. However, solar power is intermittent in nature and to smoothen the load curve, investment in robust energy storage facilities is of great importance to enhance security and reliability of electricity supply in the country. The methodology of the study looked at the historical performance of the Kafue gorge upper power station and utilised the hourly generation figures as input data for generation modelling in Homer software. The average yearly demand was derived from the available data on the system SCADA. The two dams were modelled as natural battery with the absolute state of charging and discharging determined by the available water resource and the peak electricity demand. The software Homer Energy System is used to simulate the scheme incorporating a pumped storage facility and Solar photovoltaic systems. The pumped hydro scheme works like a natural battery for the conservation of water, with the only losses being evaporation and water leakages from the dams and the turbines. To address the problem of intermittency on the solar resource and the non-availability of water for hydropower generation, the study concluded that utilising the existing Hydro power stations, Kafue Gorge upper and Kafue Gorge Lower to work conjunctively with Solar energy will reduce power deficits and increase the security of supply for the country. An optimum capacity of 350MW of solar PV can be integrated while operating Kafue Gorge power station in both generating and pumping mode to enable efficient utilisation of water at Kafue Gorge upper Dam and Kafue Gorge Lower dam.

Keywords: hydropower, solar power systems, energy storage, photovoltaics, solar irradiation, pumped hydro storage system, supervisory control and data acquisition, Homer energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 116
5508 Predicting the Turbulence Intensity, Excess Energy Available and Potential Power Generated by Building Mounted Wind Turbines over Four Major UK City

Authors: Emejeamara Francis

Abstract:

The future of potentials wind energy applications within suburban/urban areas are currently faced with various problems. These include insufficient assessment of urban wind resource, and the effectiveness of commercial gust control solutions as well as unavailability of effective and cheaper valuable tools for scoping the potentials of urban wind applications within built-up environments. In order to achieve effective assessment of the potentials of urban wind installations, an estimation of the total energy that would be available to them were effective control systems to be used, and evaluating the potential power to be generated by the wind system is required. This paper presents a methodology of predicting the power generated by a wind system operating within an urban wind resource. This method was developed by using high temporal resolution wind measurements from eight potential sites within the urban and suburban environment as inputs to a vertical axis wind turbine multiple stream tube model. A relationship between the unsteady performance coefficient obtained from the stream tube model results and turbulence intensity was demonstrated. Hence, an analytical methodology for estimating the unsteady power coefficient at a potential turbine site is proposed. This is combined with analytical models that were developed to predict the wind speed and the excess energy (EEC) available in estimating the potential power generated by wind systems at different heights within a built environment. Estimates of turbulence intensities, wind speed, EEC and turbine performance based on the current methodology allow a more complete assessment of available wind resource and potential urban wind projects. This methodology is applied to four major UK cities namely Leeds, Manchester, London and Edinburgh and the potential to map the turbine performance at different heights within a typical urban city is demonstrated.

Keywords: small-scale wind, turbine power, urban wind energy, turbulence intensity, excess energy content

Procedia PDF Downloads 274
5507 A New Converter Topology for Wind Energy Conversion System

Authors: Mahmoud Khamaira, Ahmed Abu-Siada, Yasser Alharbi

Abstract:

Doubly Fed Induction Generators (DFIGs) are currently extensively used in variable speed wind power plants due to their superior advantages that include reduced converter rating, low cost, reduced losses, easy implementation of power factor correction schemes, variable speed operation and four quadrants active and reactive power control capabilities. On the other hand, DFIG sensitivity to grid disturbances, especially for voltage sags represents the main disadvantage of the equipment. In this paper, a coil is proposed to be integrated within the DFIG converters to improve the overall performance of a DFIG-based wind energy conversion system (WECS). The charging and discharging of the coil are controlled by controlling the duty cycle of the switches of the dc-dc chopper. Simulation results reveal the effectiveness of the proposed topology in improving the overall performance of the WECS system under study.

Keywords: doubly fed induction generator, coil, wind energy conversion system, converter topology

Procedia PDF Downloads 659
5506 India’s Strategy toward Afghanistan since 9\11

Authors: Saifurahman Fayiz

Abstract:

overall, India had friendly relation with different governments in Afghanistan except for the Taliban regime amongst the years 1996 to 2001. The terrorist attack in the United States provided India a chance to follow its strategy in Afghanistan. India support Afghanistan since 9\11. The objectives of this study to study India’s strategy towards Afghanistan and its implication to neighbor countries. The research method conducted based on qualitative research method with descriptive. The research findings propose that; India has chosen a soft power policy to implement its strategy in Afghanistan.

Keywords: strategy, policy, soft power, Afghanistan

Procedia PDF Downloads 254
5505 Sound Noise Control of a Steam Ejector in a Typical Power Plant: Design, Manufacturing, and Testing a Silencer-Muffler

Authors: Ali Siami, Masoud Asayesh, Asghar Najafi, Amirhosein Hamedanian

Abstract:

There are so many noise sources in power generation units that these sources can produce high-level sound noise. Therefore, sound noise reduction methods can assist these industries, especially in these days that laws related to environmental issues become more strict. In a typical power plant, so many machines and devices with high-level sound noise are arranged beside of each others. Therefore, the sound source identification and reducing the noise level can be very vital. In this paper, the procedure for designing, manufacturing and testing of a silencer-muffler used for a power plant steam vent is mentioned. This unit is placed near the residential area and so it is very important to reduce the noise emission. For this purpose, in the first step, measurements have done to identify the sound source and the frequency content of noise. The overall level of noise was so high and it was more than 120dB. Then, the appropriate noise control device is designed according to the measurement results and operational conditions. In the next step, the designed silencer-muffler has been manufactured and installed on the steam discharge of the ejector. For validation of the silencer-muffler effect, the acoustic test was done again in operating mode. Finally, the measurement results before and after the installation are compared. The results have confirmed a considerable reduction in noise level resultant of using silencer-muffler in the designed frequency range.

Keywords: silencer-muffler, sound noise control, sound measurement, steam ejector

Procedia PDF Downloads 381
5504 The Determination of Operating Reserve in Small Power Systems Based on Reliability Criteria

Authors: H. Falsafi Falsafizadeh, R. Zeinali Zeinali

Abstract:

This paper focuses on determination of total Operating Reserve (OR) level, consisting of spinning and non-spinning reserves, in two small real power systems, in such a way that the system reliability indicator would comply with typical industry standards. For this purpose, the standard used by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) – i.e., 1 day outage in 10 years or 0.1 days/year is relied. The simulation of system operation for these systems that was used for the determination of total operating reserve level was performed by industry standard production simulation software in this field, named PLEXOS. In this paper, the operating reserve which meets an annual Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) of approximately 0.1 days per year is determined in the study year. This reserve is the minimum amount of reserve required in a power system and generally defined as a percentage of the annual peak.

Keywords: frequency control, LOLE, operating reserve, system reliability

Procedia PDF Downloads 342
5503 Measurement of Thermal Protrusion Profile in Magnetic Recording Heads via Wyko Interferometry

Authors: Joseph Christopher R. Ragasa, Paolo Gabriel P. Casas, Nemesio S. Mangila, Maria Emma C. Villamin, Myra G. Bungag

Abstract:

A procedure in measuring the thermal protrusion profiles of magnetic recording heads was developed using a Wyko HD-8100 optical interference-based instrument. The protrusions in the heads were made by the application of a constant power through the thermal flying height controller pads. It was found that the thermally-induced bubble is confined to form in the same head locations, primarily in the reader and writer regions, regardless of the direction of approach of temperature. An application of power to the thermal flying height control pads ranging from 0 to 50 milliWatts showed that the protrusions demonstrate a linear dependence with the supplied power. The efficiencies calculated using this method were compared to that obtained through Guzik and found to be 19.57% greater due to the static testing environment used in the testing.

Keywords: thermal protrusion profile, magnetic recording heads, wyko interferometry, thermal flying height control

Procedia PDF Downloads 468
5502 Assessing the Efficiency of Pre-Hospital Scoring System with Conventional Coagulation Tests Based Definition of Acute Traumatic Coagulopathy

Authors: Venencia Albert, Arulselvi Subramanian, Hara Prasad Pati, Asok K. Mukhophadhyay

Abstract:

Acute traumatic coagulopathy in an endogenous dysregulation of the intrinsic coagulation system in response to the injury, associated with three-fold risk of poor outcome, and is more amenable to corrective interventions, subsequent to early identification and management. Multiple definitions for stratification of the patients' risk for early acute coagulopathy have been proposed, with considerable variations in the defining criteria, including several trauma-scoring systems based on prehospital data. We aimed to develop a clinically relevant definition for acute coagulopathy of trauma based on conventional coagulation assays and to assess its efficacy in comparison to recently established prehospital prediction models. Methodology: Retrospective data of all trauma patients (n = 490) presented to our level I trauma center, in 2014, was extracted. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was done to establish cut-offs for conventional coagulation assays for identification of patients with acute traumatic coagulopathy was done. Prospectively data of (n = 100) adult trauma patients was collected and cohort was stratified by the established definition and classified as "coagulopathic" or "non-coagulopathic" and correlated with the Prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score and Trauma-Induced Coagulopathy Clinical Score for identifying trauma coagulopathy and subsequent risk for mortality. Results: Data of 490 trauma patients (average age 31.85±9.04; 86.7% males) was extracted. 53.3% had head injury, 26.6% had fractures, 7.5% had chest and abdominal injury. Acute traumatic coagulopathy was defined as international normalized ratio ≥ 1.19; prothrombin time ≥ 15.5 s; activated partial thromboplastin time ≥ 29 s. Of the 100 adult trauma patients (average age 36.5±14.2; 94% males), 63% had early coagulopathy based on our conventional coagulation assay definition. Overall prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score was 118.7±58.5 and trauma-induced coagulopathy clinical score was 3(0-8). Both the scores were higher in coagulopathic than non-coagulopathic patients (prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score 123.2±8.3 vs. 110.9±6.8, p-value = 0.31; trauma-induced coagulopathy clinical score 4(3-8) vs. 3(0-8), p-value = 0.89), but not statistically significant. Overall mortality was 41%. Mortality rate was significantly higher in coagulopathic than non-coagulopathic patients (75.5% vs. 54.2%, p-value = 0.04). High prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score also significantly associated with mortality (134.2±9.95 vs. 107.8±6.82, p-value = 0.02), whereas trauma-induced coagulopathy clinical score did not vary be survivors and non-survivors. Conclusion: Early coagulopathy was seen in 63% of trauma patients, which was significantly associated with mortality. Acute traumatic coagulopathy defined by conventional coagulation assays (international normalized ratio ≥ 1.19; prothrombin time ≥ 15.5 s; activated partial thromboplastin time ≥ 29 s) demonstrated good ability to identify coagulopathy and subsequent mortality, in comparison to the prehospital parameter-based scoring systems. Prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score may be more suited for predicting mortality rather than early coagulopathy. In emergency trauma situations, where immediate corrective measures need to be taken, complex multivariable scoring algorithms may cause delay, whereas coagulation parameters and conventional coagulation tests will give highly specific results.

Keywords: trauma, coagulopathy, prediction, model

Procedia PDF Downloads 174
5501 Multitemporal Satellite Images for Agriculture Change Detection in Al Jouf Region, Saudi Arabia

Authors: Ali A. Aldosari

Abstract:

Change detection of Earth surface features is extremely important for better understanding of our environment in order to promote better decision making. Al-Jawf is remarkable for its abundant agricultural water where there is fertile agricultural land due largely to underground water. As result, this region has large areas of cultivation of dates, olives and fruits trees as well as other agricultural products such as Alfa Alfa and wheat. However this agricultural area was declined due to the reduction of government supports in the last decade. This reduction was not officially recorded or measured in this region at large scale or governorate level. Remote sensing data are primary sources extensively used for change detection in agriculture applications. This study is applied the technology of GIS and used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) which can be used to measure and analyze the spatial and temporal changes in the agriculture areas in the Aljouf region.

Keywords: spatial analysis, geographical information system, change detection

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5500 Power Performance Improvement of 500W Vertical Axis Wind Turbine with Salient Design Parameters

Authors: Young-Tae Lee, Hee-Chang Lim

Abstract:

This paper presents the performance characteristics of Darrieus-type vertical axis wind turbine (VAWT) with NACA airfoil blades. The performance of Darrieus-type VAWT can be characterized by torque and power. There are various parameters affecting the performance such as chord length, helical angle, pitch angle and rotor diameter. To estimate the optimum shape of Darrieustype wind turbine in accordance with various design parameters, we examined aerodynamic characteristics and separated flow occurring in the vicinity of blade, interaction between flow and blade, and torque and power characteristics derived from it. For flow analysis, flow variations were investigated based on the unsteady RANS (Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes) equation. Sliding mesh algorithm was employed in order to consider rotational effect of blade. To obtain more realistic results we conducted experiment and numerical analysis at the same time for three-dimensional shape. In addition, several parameters (chord length, rotor diameter, pitch angle, and helical angle) were considered to find out optimum shape design and characteristics of interaction with ambient flow. Since the NACA airfoil used in this study showed significant changes in magnitude of lift and drag depending on an angle of attack, the rotor with low drag, long cord length and short diameter shows high power coefficient in low tip speed ratio (TSR) range. On the contrary, in high TSR range, drag becomes high. Hence, the short-chord and long-diameter rotor produces high power coefficient. When a pitch angle at which airfoil directs toward inside equals to -2° and helical angle equals to 0°, Darrieus-type VAWT generates maximum power.

Keywords: darrieus wind turbine, VAWT, NACA airfoil, performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 371
5499 Wear Behavior and Microstructure of Eutectic Al - Si Alloys Manufactured by Selective Laser Melting

Authors: Nan KANG, Pierre Coddet, Hanlin Liao, Christian Coddet

Abstract:

In this study, the almost dense eutectic Al-12Si alloys were fabricated by selective laser melting (SLM) from the powder mixture of pure Aluminum and pure Silicon, which show the mean particle sizes of 30 μm and 5μm respectively, under the argon environment. The image analysis shows that the highest value of relative density (95 %) was measured for the part obtained at the laser power of 280 W. X ray diffraction (XRD), Optical microscope (OM) and scanning electron microscope (SEM) equipped with X-ray energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) were employed to determine the microstructures of the SLM-processed Al-Si alloy, which illustrate that the SLM samples present the ultra-fine microstructure. The XRD results indicate that no clearly phase transformation happened during the SLM process. Additionally, the vaporization behavior of Aluminum was detected for the parts obtained at high laser power. Besides, the maximum microhardness value, about 95 Hv, was measured for the samples obtained at laser power of 280 W, and which shows the highest wear resistance.

Keywords: al-Si alloy, selective laser melting, wear behavior, microstructure

Procedia PDF Downloads 399
5498 Perfomance of PAPR Reduction in OFDM System for Wireless Communications

Authors: Alcardo Alex Barakabitze, Saddam Aziz, Muhammad Zubair

Abstract:

The Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) is a special form of multicarrier transmission that splits the total transmission bandwidth into a number of orthogonal and non-overlapping subcarriers and transmit the collection of bits called symbols in parallel using these subcarriers. In this paper, we explore the Peak to Average Power Reduction (PAPR) problem in OFDM systems. We provide the performance analysis of CCDF and BER through MATLAB simulations.

Keywords: bit error ratio (BER), OFDM, peak to average power reduction (PAPR), sub-carriers

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5497 Design and Simulation Interface Circuit for Piezoresistive Accelerometers with Offset Cancellation Ability

Authors: Mohsen Bagheri, Ahmad Afifi

Abstract:

This paper presents a new method for read out of the piezoresistive accelerometer sensors. The circuit works based on instrumentation amplifier and it is useful for reducing offset in Wheatstone bridge. The obtained gain is 645 with 1 μv/°c equivalent drift and 1.58 mw power consumption. A Schmitt trigger and multiplexer circuit control output node. A high speed counter is designed in this work. The proposed circuit is designed and simulated in 0.18 μm CMOS technology with 1.8 v power supply.

Keywords: piezoresistive accelerometer, zero offset, Schmitt trigger, bidirectional reversible counter

Procedia PDF Downloads 309
5496 Effects of Plyometric Exercises on Agility, Power and Speed Improvement of U-17 Female Sprinters in Case of Burayu Athletics Project, Oromia, Ethiopia

Authors: Abdeta Bayissa Mekessa

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of plyometric exercises on agility, power, and speed and improvement of U-17 female sprinters in the case of the Burayu Athletics project. The true experimental research design was employed for conducting this study. The total populations of the study were 14 U-17 female sprinters from Burayu athletics project. The populations were small in numbers; therefore, the researcher took all as a sample by using comprehensive sampling techniques. These subjects were classified into the Experimental group (N=7) and the Control group (N=7) by using simple random sampling techniques. The Experimental group participated in plyometric training for 8 weeks, 3 days per week and 60 minutes duration per day in addition to their regular training. But, the control groups were following their only regular training program. The variables selected for the purpose of this study were agility, power and speed. The tests were the Illinois agility test, standing long jump test, and 30m sprint test, respectively. Both groups were tested before (pre-test) and after (post-test) 8 weeks of plyometric training. For data analysis, the researcher used SPSS version 26.0 software. The collected data was analyzed using a paired sample t-test to observe the difference between the pre-test and post-test results of the plyometric exercises of the study. The significant level of p<0.05 was considered. The result of the study shows that after 8 weeks of plyometric training, significant improvements were found in Agility (MD=0.45, p<0.05), power (MD=-1.157, P<0.05) and speed (MD=0.37, P<0.05) for experimental group subjects. On the other hand, there was no significant change (P>0.05) in those variables in the control groups. Finally, the findings of the study showed that eight (8) weeks of plyometric exercises had a positive effect on agility, power and speed improvement of female sprinters. Therefore, Athletics coaches and athletes are highly recommended to include plyometric exercise in their training program.

Keywords: ploymetric exercise, speed power, aglity, female sprinter

Procedia PDF Downloads 37
5495 Application of a Hybrid Modified Blade Element Momentum Theory/Computational Fluid Dynamics Approach for Wine Turbine Aerodynamic Performances Prediction

Authors: Samah Laalej, Abdelfattah Bouatem

Abstract:

In the field of wind turbine blades, it is complicated to evaluate the aerodynamic performances through experimental measurements as it requires a lot of computing time and resources. Therefore, in this paper, a hybrid BEM-CFD numerical technique is developed to predict power and aerodynamic forces acting on the blades. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation was conducted to calculate the drag and lift forces through Ansys software using the K-w model. Then an enhanced BEM code was created to predict the power outputs generated by the wind turbine using the aerodynamic properties extracted from the CFD approach. The numerical approach was compared and validated with experimental data. The power curves calculated from this hybrid method were in good agreement with experimental measurements for all velocity ranges.

Keywords: blade element momentum, aerodynamic forces, wind turbine blades, computational fluid dynamics approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 63
5494 Analysis of Thermoelectric Coolers as Energy Harvesters for Low Power Embedded Applications

Authors: Yannick Verbelen, Sam De Winne, Niek Blondeel, Ann Peeters, An Braeken, Abdellah Touhafi

Abstract:

The growing popularity of solid state thermoelectric devices in cooling applications has sparked an increasing diversity of thermoelectric coolers (TECs) on the market, commonly known as “Peltier modules”. They can also be used as generators, converting a temperature difference into electric power, and opportunities are plentiful to make use of these devices as thermoelectric generators (TEGs) to supply energy to low power, autonomous embedded electronic applications. Their adoption as energy harvesters in this new domain of usage is obstructed by the complex thermoelectric models commonly associated with TEGs. Low cost TECs for the consumer market lack the required parameters to use the models because they are not intended for this mode of operation, thereby urging an alternative method to obtain electric power estimations in specific operating conditions. The design of the test setup implemented in this paper is specifically targeted at benchmarking commercial, off-the-shelf TECs for use as energy harvesters in domestic environments: applications with limited temperature differences and space available. The usefulness is demonstrated by testing and comparing single and multi stage TECs with different sizes. The effect of a boost converter stage on the thermoelectric end-to-end efficiency is also discussed.

Keywords: thermoelectric cooler, TEC, complementary balanced energy harvesting, step-up converter, DC/DC converter, energy harvesting, thermal harvesting

Procedia PDF Downloads 259
5493 Leverage Effect for Volatility with Generalized Laplace Error

Authors: Farrukh Javed, Krzysztof Podgórski

Abstract:

We propose a new model that accounts for the asymmetric response of volatility to positive ('good news') and negative ('bad news') shocks in economic time series the so-called leverage effect. In the past, asymmetric powers of errors in the conditionally heteroskedastic models have been used to capture this effect. Our model is using the gamma difference representation of the generalized Laplace distributions that efficiently models the asymmetry. It has one additional natural parameter, the shape, that is used instead of power in the asymmetric power models to capture the strength of a long-lasting effect of shocks. Some fundamental properties of the model are provided including the formula for covariances and an explicit form for the conditional distribution of 'bad' and 'good' news processes given the past the property that is important for the statistical fitting of the model. Relevant features of volatility models are illustrated using S&P 500 historical data.

Keywords: heavy tails, volatility clustering, generalized asymmetric laplace distribution, leverage effect, conditional heteroskedasticity, asymmetric power volatility, GARCH models

Procedia PDF Downloads 383
5492 Artificial Neural Network and Satellite Derived Chlorophyll Indices for Estimation of Wheat Chlorophyll Content under Rainfed Condition

Authors: Muhammad Naveed Tahir, Wang Yingkuan, Huang Wenjiang, Raheel Osman

Abstract:

Numerous models used in prediction and decision-making process but most of them are linear in natural environment, and linear models reach their limitations with non-linearity in data. Therefore accurate estimation is difficult. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) found extensive acceptance to address the modeling of the complex real world for the non-linear environment. ANN’s have more general and flexible functional forms than traditional statistical methods can effectively deal with. The link between information technology and agriculture will become more firm in the near future. Monitoring crop biophysical properties non-destructively can provide a rapid and accurate understanding of its response to various environmental influences. Crop chlorophyll content is an important indicator of crop health and therefore the estimation of crop yield. In recent years, remote sensing has been accepted as a robust tool for site-specific management by detecting crop parameters at both local and large scales. The present research combined the ANN model with satellite-derived chlorophyll indices from LANDSAT 8 imagery for predicting real-time wheat chlorophyll estimation. The cloud-free scenes of LANDSAT 8 were acquired (Feb-March 2016-17) at the same time when ground-truthing campaign was performed for chlorophyll estimation by using SPAD-502. Different vegetation indices were derived from LANDSAT 8 imagery using ERADAS Imagine (v.2014) software for chlorophyll determination. The vegetation indices were including Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI), Chlorophyll Absorbed Ratio Index (CARI), Modified Chlorophyll Absorbed Ratio Index (MCARI) and Transformed Chlorophyll Absorbed Ratio index (TCARI). For ANN modeling, MATLAB and SPSS (ANN) tools were used. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) in MATLAB provided very satisfactory results. For training purpose of MLP 61.7% of the data, for validation purpose 28.3% of data and rest 10% of data were used to evaluate and validate the ANN model results. For error evaluation, sum of squares error and relative error were used. ANN model summery showed that sum of squares error of 10.786, the average overall relative error was .099. The MCARI and NDVI were revealed to be more sensitive indices for assessing wheat chlorophyll content with the highest coefficient of determination R²=0.93 and 0.90 respectively. The results suggested that use of high spatial resolution satellite imagery for the retrieval of crop chlorophyll content by using ANN model provides accurate, reliable assessment of crop health status at a larger scale which can help in managing crop nutrition requirement in real time.

Keywords: ANN, chlorophyll content, chlorophyll indices, satellite images, wheat

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5491 Development of an Advanced Power Ultrasonic-Assisted Drilling System

Authors: M. A. Moghaddas, M. Short, N. Wiley, A. Y. Yi, K. F. Graff

Abstract:

The application of ultrasonic vibrations to machining processes has a long history, ranging from slurry-based systems able to drill brittle materials, to more recent developments involving low power ultrasonics for high precision machining, with many of these at the research and laboratory stages. The focus of this development is the application of high levels of ultrasonic power (1,000’s of watts) to standard, heavy duty machine tools – drilling being the immediate focus, with developments in milling in progress – with the objective of dramatically increasing system productivity through faster feed rates, this benefit arising from the thrust force reductions obtained by power ultrasonic vibrations. The presentation will describe development of an advanced drilling system based on a special, acoustically designed, rugged drill module capable of functioning under heavy duty production conditions, and making use of standard tool holder means, and able to obtain thrust force reductions while maintaining or improving surface finish and drilling accuracy. The characterization of the system performance will be described, and results obtained in drilling several materials (Aluminum, Stainless steel, Titanium) presented.

Keywords: dimensional accuracy, machine tool, productivity, surface roughness, thrust force, ultrasonic vibrations, ultrasonic-assisted drilling

Procedia PDF Downloads 276
5490 A Distribution Free Test for Censored Matched Pairs

Authors: Ayman Baklizi

Abstract:

This paper discusses the problem of testing hypotheses about the lifetime distributions of a matched pair based on censored data. A distribution free test based on a runs statistic is proposed. Its null distribution and power function are found in a simple convenient form. Some properties of the test statistic and its power function are studied.

Keywords: censored data, distribution free, matched pair, runs statistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 287
5489 Attitudinal Change: A Major Therapy for Non–Technical Losses in the Nigerian Power Sector

Authors: Fina O. Faithpraise, Effiong O. Obisung, Azele E. Peter, Chris R. Chatwin

Abstract:

This study investigates and identifies consumer attitude as a major influence that results in non-technical losses in the Nigerian electricity supply sector. This discovery is revealed by the combination of quantitative and qualitative research to complete a survey. The dataset employed is a simple random sampling of households using electricity (public power supply), and the number of units chosen is based on statistical power analysis. The units were subdivided into two categories (household with and without electrical meters). The hypothesis formulated was tested and analyzed using a chi-square statistical method. The results obtained shows that the critical value for the household with electrical prepared meter (EPM) was (9.488 < 427.4) and those without electrical prepared meter (EPMn) was (9.488 < 436.1) with a p-value of 0.01%. The analysis demonstrated so far established the real-time position, which shows that the wrong attitude towards handling the electricity supplied (not turning off light bulbs and electrical appliances when not in use within the rooms and outdoors within 12 hours of the day) characterized the non-technical losses in the power sector. Therefore the adoption of efficient lighting attitudes in individual households as recommended by the researcher is greatly encouraged. The results from this study should serve as a model for energy efficiency and use for the improvement of electricity consumption as well as a stable economy.

Keywords: attitudinal change, household, non-technical losses, prepared meter

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5488 Therapeutic Power of Words through Reading Writing and Storytelling

Authors: Sakshi Kaul, Sundeep Verma

Abstract:

The focus of the current paper is to evaluate the therapeutic power of words. This will be done by critically evaluating the impact reading, writing and storytelling have on individuals. When we read, tell or listen to a story we are exercising our imagination. Imagination becomes the source of activation of thoughts and actions. This enables and helps the reader, writer or the listener to express the suppressed emotions or desires. The stories told, untold may bring various human emotions and attributes to forth such as hope, optimism, fear, happiness. Each story narrated evokes different emotions, at times they help us unravel ourselves in the world of the teller thereby bringing solace. Stories heard or told add to individual’s life by creating a community around, giving wings of thoughts that enable individual to be more imaginative and creative thereby fostering positively and happiness. Reading if looked at from the reader’s point of view can broaden the horizon of information and ideas about facts and life laws giving more meaning to life. From ‘once upon a time’ to ‘to happily ever after’, all that stories talk about is life’s learning. The power of words sometimes may be negated, this paper would reiterate the power of words by critically evaluating how words can become powerful and therapeutic in various structures and forms in the society. There is a story behind every situation, action and reaction. Hence it is of prime importance to understand each story, to enable a person to deal with whatever he or she may be going through. For example, if a client is going through some trauma in his or her life, the counsellor needs to know exactly what is the turmoil that is being faced so that the client can be assisted accordingly. Counselling is considered a process of healing through words or as Talk therapy, where merely through words we try to heal the client. In a counselling session, the counsellor focuses on working with the clients to bring a positive change. The counsellor allows the client to express themselves which is referred to as catharsis. The words spoken, written or heard transcend to heal and can be therapeutic. The therapeutic power of words has been seen in various cultural practices and belief systems. The underlining belief that words have the power to heal, save and bring change has existed from ages. Many religious and spiritual practices also acclaim the power of the words. Through this empirical paper, we have tried to bring to light how reading, writing, and storytelling have been used as mediums of healing and have been therapeutic in nature.

Keywords: reading, storytelling, therapeutic, words

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5487 Machine Learning Based Anomaly Detection in Hydraulic Units of Governors in Hydroelectric Power Plants

Authors: Mehmet Akif Bütüner, İlhan Koşalay

Abstract:

Hydroelectric power plants (HEPPs) are renewable energy power plants with the highest installed power in the world. While the control systems operating in these power plants ensure that the system operates at the desired operating point, it is also responsible for stopping the relevant unit safely in case of any malfunction. While these control systems are expected not to miss signals that require stopping, on the other hand, it is desired not to cause unnecessary stops. In traditional control systems including modern systems with SCADA infrastructure, alarm conditions to create warnings or trip conditions to put relevant unit out of service automatically are usually generated with predefined limits regardless of different operating conditions. This approach results in alarm/trip conditions to be less likely to detect minimal changes which may result in serious malfunction scenarios in near future. With the methods proposed in this research, routine behavior of the oil circulation of hydraulic governor of a HEPP will be modeled with machine learning methods using historical data obtained from SCADA system. Using the created model and recently gathered data from control system, oil pressure of hydraulic accumulators will be estimated. Comparison of this estimation with the measurements made and recorded instantly by the SCADA system will help to foresee failure before becoming worse and determine remaining useful life. By using model outputs, maintenance works will be made more planned, so that undesired stops are prevented, and in case of any malfunction, the system will be stopped or several alarms are triggered before the problem grows.

Keywords: hydroelectric, governor, anomaly detection, machine learning, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 95
5486 Study of Pressure and Air Mass Flow Effect on Output Power of PEM Fuel Cell Powertrains in Vehicles and Airplanes- A Simulation-based Approach

Authors: Mahdiye Khorasani, Arjun Vijay, Ali Mashayekh, Christian Trapp

Abstract:

The performance of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) is highly dependent on the pressure and mass flow of media (Hydrogen and air) throughout the cells and the stack. Higher pressure, on the one hand, results in higher output power of the stack but, on the other hand, increases the electrical power demand of the compressor. In this work, a simulation model of a PEMFC system for vehicle and airplane applications is developed. With this new model, the effect of different pressures and air mass flow rates are investigated to discover the optimum operating point in a PEMFC system, and innovative operation strategies are implemented to optimize reactants flow while minimizing electrical power demand of the compressor for optimum performance. Additionally, a fuel cell system test bench is set up, which contains not only all the auxiliary components for conditioning the gases, reactants, and flows but also a dynamic titling table for testing different orientations of the stack to simulate the flight conditions during take-off and landing and off-road-vehicle scenarios. The results of simulation will be tested and validated on the test bench for future works.

Keywords: air mass flow effect, optimization of operation, pressure effect, PEMFC system, PEMFC system simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 173
5485 Identification of Bayesian Network with Convolutional Neural Network

Authors: Mohamed Raouf Benmakrelouf, Wafa Karouche, Joseph Rynkiewicz

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose an alternative method to construct a Bayesian Network (BN). This method relies on a convolutional neural network (CNN classifier), which determinates the edges of the network skeleton. We train a CNN on a normalized empirical probability density distribution (NEPDF) for predicting causal interactions and relationships. We have to find the optimal Bayesian network structure for causal inference. Indeed, we are undertaking a search for pair-wise causality, depending on considered causal assumptions. In order to avoid unreasonable causal structure, we consider a blacklist and a whitelist of causality senses. We tested the method on real data to assess the influence of education on the voting intention for the extreme right-wing party. We show that, with this method, we get a safer causal structure of variables (Bayesian Network) and make to identify a variable that satisfies the backdoor criterion.

Keywords: Bayesian network, structure learning, optimal search, convolutional neural network, causal inference

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5484 Study on the Model Predicting Post-Construction Settlement of Soft Ground

Authors: Pingshan Chen, Zhiliang Dong

Abstract:

In order to estimate the post-construction settlement more objectively, the power-polynomial model is proposed, which can reflect the trend of settlement development based on the observed settlement data. It was demonstrated by an actual case history of an embankment, and during the prediction. Compared with the other three prediction models, the power-polynomial model can estimate the post-construction settlement more accurately with more simple calculation.

Keywords: prediction, model, post-construction settlement, soft ground

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5483 Optimal Simultaneous Sizing and Siting of DGs and Smart Meters Considering Voltage Profile Improvement in Active Distribution Networks

Authors: T. Sattarpour, D. Nazarpour

Abstract:

This paper investigates the effect of simultaneous placement of DGs and smart meters (SMs), on voltage profile improvement in active distribution networks (ADNs). A substantial center of attention has recently been on responsive loads initiated in power system problem studies such as distributed generations (DGs). Existence of responsive loads in active distribution networks (ADNs) would have undeniable effect on sizing and siting of DGs. For this reason, an optimal framework is proposed for sizing and siting of DGs and SMs in ADNs. SMs are taken into consideration for the sake of successful implementing of demand response programs (DRPs) such as direct load control (DLC) with end-side consumers. Looking for voltage profile improvement, the optimization procedure is solved by genetic algorithm (GA) and tested on IEEE 33-bus distribution test system. Different scenarios with variations in the number of DG units, individual or simultaneous placing of DGs and SMs, and adaptive power factor (APF) mode for DGs to support reactive power have been established. The obtained results confirm the significant effect of DRPs and APF mode in determining the optimal size and site of DGs to be connected in ADN resulting to the improvement of voltage profile as well.

Keywords: active distribution network (ADN), distributed generations (DGs), smart meters (SMs), demand response programs (DRPs), adaptive power factor (APF)

Procedia PDF Downloads 301
5482 Optimization of Hybrid off Grid Energy Station

Authors: Yehya Abdellatif, Iyad M. Muslih, Azzah Alkhalailah, Abdallah Muslih

Abstract:

Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable (HOMER) software was utilized to find the optimum design of a hybrid off-Grid system, by choosing the optimal solution depending on the cost analysis of energy based on different capacity shortage percentages. A complete study for the site conditions and load profile was done to optimize the design and implementation of a hybrid off-grid power station. In addition, the solution takes into consecration the ambient temperature effect on the efficiency of the power generation and the economical aspects of selection depending on real market price. From the analysis of the HOMER model results, the optimum hybrid power station was suggested, based on wind speed, and solar conditions. The optimization function objective is to minimize the Net Price Cost (NPC) and the Cost of Energy (COE) with zero and 10 percentage of capacity shortage.

Keywords: energy modeling, HOMER, off-grid system, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 561