Search results for: commodity price uncertainties

Authors: S. Taghavi Kalajahi, A. Koerdt, T. Lund Skovhus

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Cathodic protection (CP) is an electrochemical method to control and manage corrosion in different industries and environments. CP which is widely used, especially in buried and sub-merged environments, which both environments are susceptible to microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC). Most of the standards recommend performing CP using -800 mV, however, if MIC threats are high or sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB) is present, the recommendation is to use more negative potentials for adequate protection of the metal. Due to the lack of knowledge and research on the effectiveness of CP on MIC, to the author’s best knowledge, there is no information about what MIC threat is and how much more negative potentials should be used enabling adequate protection and not overprotection (due to hydrogen embrittlement risk). Recently, the development and cheaper price of molecular microbial methods (MMMs) open the door for more effective investigations on the corrosion in the presence of microorganisms, along with other electrochemical methods and surface analysis. In this work, using MMMs, the gene expression of SRB biofilm under different potentials of CP will be investigated. The specific genes, such as pH buffering, metal oxidizing, etc., will be compared at different potentials, enabling to determine the precise potential that protect the metal effectively from SRB. This work is the initial step to be able to standardize the recommended potential under MIC condition, resulting better protection for the infrastructures.

Keywords: cathodic protection, microbiologically influenced corrosion, molecular microbial methods, sulfate reducing bacteria

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Authors: M. R. Akbari , H. Yousefnia, E. Mirrezaei

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Range uncertainties of protons are currently a topic of interest in proton therapy. Two of the parameters that are often used to specify proton range are water equivalent thickness (WET) and water equivalent ratio (WER). Since WER values for a specific material is nearly constant at different proton energies, it is a more useful parameter to compare. In this study, WER values were calculated for different proton energies in polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA), polystyrene (PS) and aluminum (Al) using FLUKA and TRIM codes. The results were compared with analytical, experimental and simulated SEICS code data obtained from the literature. In FLUKA simulation, a cylindrical phantom, 1000 mm in height and 300 mm in diameter, filled with the studied materials was simulated. A typical mono-energetic proton pencil beam in a wide range of incident energies usually applied in proton therapy (50 MeV to 225 MeV) impinges normally on the phantom. In order to obtain the WER values for the considered materials, cylindrical detectors, 1 mm in height and 20 mm in diameter, were also simulated along the beam trajectory in the phantom. In TRIM calculations, type of projectile, energy and angle of incidence, type of target material and thickness should be defined. The mode of 'detailed calculation with full damage cascades' was selected for proton transport in the target material. The biggest difference in WER values between the codes was 3.19%, 1.9% and 0.67% for Al, PMMA and PS, respectively. In Al and PMMA, the biggest difference between each code and experimental data was 1.08%, 1.26%, 2.55%, 0.94%, 0.77% and 0.95% for SEICS, FLUKA and SRIM, respectively. FLUKA and SEICS had the greatest agreement (≤0.77% difference in PMMA and ≤1.08% difference in Al, respectively) with the available experimental data in this study. It is concluded that, FLUKA and TRIM codes have capability for Bragg curves simulation and WER values calculation in the studied materials. They can also predict Bragg peak location and range of proton beams with acceptable accuracy.

Keywords: water equivalent ratio, dosimetric materials, proton therapy, Monte Carlo simulations

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Authors: Ali Reza Ghaffari, Hassan Saghi

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Given the limitation of fossil resources to supply energy to buildings, recent years have seen a revival of interest in new technologies that produce the energy using new forms of energy in many developed countries. In this research, first the potentials of new energies in Iran are discussed and then based on case studies undertaken in a building in Tehran, the effects of utilizing new solar energy technology for supplying the energy of buildings are investigated. Then, by analyzing the data recorded over a four-year period, the technical performance of this system is investigated. According to the experimental operation plan, this system requires an auxiliary heating circuit for continuous operation over a year. Also, in the economic analysis, real conditions are considered and the results are recorded based on long-term data. Considering the purchase and commissioning building, supplementary energy consumption, etc. a comparison is drawn between the costs of using a solar water heater in a residential unit with the energy costs of a similar unit equipped with a conventional gas water heater. Given the current price of energy, using a solar water heater in the country will not economical, but considering the global energy prices, this system will have a return on investment after 4.5 years. It also produces 81% less pollution and saves about $21.5 on environmental pollution cleanup.

Keywords: energy supply, new energies, new technologies, buildings

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Authors: Okolo Chimaobi Valentine, Obidigbo Chizoba

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As a basic physiology need, the threat to sufficient food production is the threat to human survival. Food security has been an issue that has gained global concern. This paper looks at the food security in Nigeria by assessing the availability of food and accessibility of the available food. The paper employed multiple linear regression technique and graphic trends of growth rates of relevant variables to show the situation of food security in Nigeria. Results of the tests revealed that population growth rate was higher than the growth rate of food availability in Nigeria for the earlier period of the study. Commercial bank credit to the agricultural sector, foreign exchange utilization for food and the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund (ACGSF) contributed significantly to food availability in Nigeria. Food prices grew at a faster rate than the average income level, making it difficult to access sufficient food. It implies that prior to the year 2012; there was insufficient food to feed the Nigerian populace. However, continued credit to the food and agricultural sector will ensure sustained and sufficient production of food in Nigeria. Microfinance banks should make sufficient credit available to the smallholder farmer. The government should further control and subsidize the rising price of food to make it more accessible by the people.

Keywords: food, accessibility, availability, security

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Authors: Steve Apell

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Transit-oriented development (TOD) is a popular intervention for local governments endeavoring to reduce auto-dependency and the adverse effects of sprawl. At the same time, American households such as the millennial generation, are shifting their residential preferences from the suburbs to the central city. These changes have intensified demand for TOD housing which generates high rents. This leads to displacement of low-income, transit-dependent households by more affluent middle class families. Critics argue that, the effectiveness of TOD might be compromised as newer affluent residents drive more and use transit less. However, there has not been a comprehensive study to test this hypothesis. Using census data ( 1990 – 2012) from six metropolitans areas, this research investigated if block groups within one-mile radius of TOD are gentrifying. Our findings reveal that the price of housing and number of college graduates, increased more in TODs compared to the metropolitan area. Similarly, the percentage of immigrants increased in TOD, while those of blacks and whites declined. Most importantly, TOD residents generally commuted less by car, while transit use increased in some metropolitan areas. TOD in the south of the United States registered higher cost of housing and less transit use. These findings have significant implications for the future of equitable and sustainable transportation policy.

Keywords: commuting, equity, gentrification, mode choice, transit oriented development

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Authors: Kingkan Pongsiri

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The study of marketing mix influencing on hotel booking decision making: Japanese senior traveler case aims to study the individual factors that are involved in the decision-making reservation for Japanese elderly travelers. Then, it aims to study other factors that influence the decision of tourists booking elderly Japanese people. This is a quantitative research methods, total of 420 completed questionnaires were collect via a Non-Probability sampling techniques. The study found that the majority of samples were female, 53.3 percent of 224 people aged between 66-70 years were 197, representing a 46.9 percent majority, the marital status of marriage is 212 per cent.50.5. Majority of samples have a bachelor degree of education with number of 326 persons (77.6 percentages) 50 percentages of samples (210 people) have monthly income in between 1,501-2,000 USD. The Samples mostly have a length of stay in a short period between 1-14 days counted as 299 people which representing 71.2 percentages of samples. The senior Japanese tourists apparently sensitive to the factors of products/services the most. Then they seem to be sensitive to the price, the marketing promotion and people, respectively. There are two factors identified as moderately influence to the Japanese senior tourists are places or distribution channels and physical evidences.

Keywords: Japanese senior traveler, marketing mix, senior tourist, hotel booking

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Authors: Ayoade Adeyemi, Leo Nherera, Paul Trueman, Antje Emmermann

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Background and objectives: Radiofrequency (RF) generated plasma chondroplasty is considered a promising treatment alternative to mechanical debridement (MD) with a shaver. The aim of the study was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing costs and outcomes following COBLATION chondroplasty versus mechanical debridement in patients with knee pain associated with a medial meniscus tear and idiopathic ICRS grade III focal lesion of the medial femoral condyle from a payer perspective. Methods: A decision-analytic model was developed comparing economic and clinical outcomes between the two treatment options in German patients following knee chondroplasty. Revision rates based on the frequency of repeat arthroscopy, osteotomy and conversion to total knee replacement, reimbursement costs and outcomes data over a 4-year time horizon were extracted from published literature. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess uncertainties around model parameters. Threshold analysis determined the revision rate at which model results change. All costs were reported in 2016 euros, future costs were discounted at a 3% annual rate. Results: Over a 4 year period, COBLATION chondroplasty resulted in an overall net saving cost of €461 due to a lower revision rate of 14% compared to 48% with MD. Threshold analysis showed that both options were associated with comparable costs if COBLATION revision rate was assumed to increase up to 23%. The initial procedure costs for COBLATION were higher compared to MD and outcome scores were significantly improved at 1 and 4 years post-operation versus MD. Conclusion: The analysis shows that COBLATION chondroplasty is a cost-effective option compared to mechanical debridement in the treatment of patients with a medial meniscus tear and idiopathic ICRS grade III defect of the medial femoral condyle.

Keywords: COBLATION, cost-effectiveness, knee chondroplasty, mechanical debridement

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Authors: Pavel Borodkin, Nikolay Khrennikov, Azamat Gazetdinov

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The problem of ensuring of VVER type reactor equipment integrity is now most actual in connection with justification of safety of the NPP Units and extension of their service life to 60 years and more. First of all, it concerns old units with VVER-440 and VVER-1000. The justification of the VVER equipment integrity depends on the reliability of estimation of the degree of the equipment damage. One of the mandatory requirements, providing the reliability of such estimation, and also evaluation of VVER equipment lifetime, is the monitoring of equipment radiation loading parameters. In this connection, there is a problem of justification of such normative parameters, used for an estimation of the pressure vessel metal embrittlement, as the fluence and fluence rate (FR) of fast neutrons above 0.5 MeV. From the point of view of regulatory practice, a comparison of displacement per atom (DPA) and fast neutron fluence (FNF) above 0.5 MeV has a practical concern. In accordance with the Russian regulatory rules, neutron fluence F(E > 0.5 MeV) is a radiation exposure parameter used in steel embrittlement prediction under neutron irradiation. However, the DPA parameter is a more physically legitimate quantity of neutron damage of Fe based materials. If DPA distribution in reactor structures is more conservative as neutron fluence, this case should attract the attention of the regulatory authority. The purpose of this work was to show what radiation load parameters (fluence, DPA) on all VVER equipment should be under control, and give the reasonable estimations of such parameters in the volume of all equipment. The second task is to give the conservative estimation of each parameter including its uncertainty. Results of recently received investigations allow to test the conservatism of calculational predictions, and, as it has been shown in the paper, combination of ex-vessel measured data with calculated ones allows to assess unpredicted uncertainties which are results of specific unique features of individual equipment for VVER reactor. Some results of calculational-experimental investigations are presented in this paper.

Keywords: equipment integrity, fluence, displacement per atom, nuclear power plant, neutron activation measurements, neutron transport calculations

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Authors: L. L. Ivy-Yap, H. A. Bekhet

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As the Malaysian residential electricity consumption continued to increase rapidly, effective energy policies, which address factors affecting residential electricity consumption, is urgently needed. This study attempts to investigate the relationship between residential electricity consumption (EC), real disposable income (Y), price of electricity (Pe) and population (Po) in Malaysia for 1978-2011 periods. Unlike previous studies on Malaysia, the current study focuses on the residential sector, a sector that is important for the contemplation of energy policy. The Phillips-Perron (P-P) unit root test is employed to infer the stationary of each variable while the bound test is executed to determine the existence of co-integration relationship among the variables, modeled in an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. The CUSUM and CUSUM of squares tests are applied to ensure the stability of the model. The results suggest the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship and bidirectional Granger causality between EC and the macroeconomic variables. The empirical findings will help policy makers of Malaysia in developing new monitoring standards of energy consumption. As it is the major contributing factor in economic growth and CO2 emission, there is a need for more proper planning in Malaysia to attain future targets in order to cut emissions.

Keywords: co-integration, elasticity, granger causality, Malaysia, residential electricity consumption

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Authors: Shamil Mardi Al Islam, Zaima Ahmed

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The aim of this article is to explore whether certain macroeconomic variables such as industrial index, inflation, broad money, exchange rate and deposit rate as a proxy for interest rate are interlinked with Dhaka stock price index (DSEX index) precisely after the introduction of new index by Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) since January 2013. Bangladesh stock market has experienced rapid growth since its inception. It might not be a very well-developed capital market as compared to its neighboring counterparts but has been a strong avenue for investment and resource mobilization. The data set considered consists of monthly observations, for a period of four years from January 2013 to June 2018. Findings from cointegration analysis suggest that DSEX and macroeconomic variables have a significant long-run relationship. VAR decomposition based on VAR estimated indicates that money supply explains a significant portion of variation of stock index whereas, inflation is found to have the least impact. Impact of industrial index is found to have a low impact compared to the exchange rate and deposit rate. Policies should there aim to increase industrial production in order to enhance stock market performance. Further reasonable money supply should be ensured by authorities to stimulate stock market performance.

Keywords: deposit rate, DSEX, industrial index, VAR

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Authors: Natacha Jesus-Silva, Carla S. Pereira, Natercia Durao, Maria Das Dores Formosinho, Cristina Costa-Lobo

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Any assessment process, by its very nature, raises a wide range of doubts, uncertainties, and insecurities of all kinds. The evaluation process should be ethically irreproachable, treating each and every one of the evaluated according to a conduct that ensures that the process is fair, contributing to all recognize and feel well with the processes and results of the evaluation. This is a very important starting point and implies that positive and constructive conceptions and attitudes are developed regarding the evaluation of teaching performance, where students' responsibility is desired. It is not uncommon to find teachers feeling threatened at various levels, in particular as regards their autonomy and their professional dignity. Evaluation must be useful in that it should enable decisions to be taken to improve teacher performance, the quality of teaching or the learning climate of the school. This study is part of a research project whose main objective is to identify, select, evaluate and synthesize the available evidence on Quality Indicators in Higher Education. In this work, the 01 parameters resulting from pedagogical surveys in a Portuguese higher education institution in the north of the country will be presented, surveys for the 2015/2016 school year, presented to 1751 students, in a total of 11 degrees and 18 master's degrees. It has analyzed the evaluation made by students with respect to the performance of a group of 68 teachers working full time. This paper presents the lessons learned in the last three academic years, allowing for the identification of the effects on the following areas: teaching strategies and methodologies, capacity of systematization, learning climate, creation of conditions for active student participation. This paper describes the procedures resulting from the descriptive analysis (frequency analysis, descriptive measures and association measures) and inferential analysis (ANOVA one-way, MANOVA one-way, MANOVA two-way and correlation analysis).

Keywords: teaching performance, higher education, students responsibility, indicators of teaching management

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Authors: Rahila Yilangai, Sonali Saha, Amartya Saha, Augustine Ezealor

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Gallery forests in sub-Saharan Africa are drastically disappearing due to intensive anthropogenic activities thus reducing ecosystem services, one of which is water provisioning. The role played by forest cover in regulating streamflow and water yield is not well understood, especially in West Africa. This pioneering 2-year study investigated the interrelationships between plant cover and hydrology in protected and unprotected gallery forests. Rainfall, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) measurements/estimates over 2015-2016 were obtained to form a water balance for both catchments. In addition, transpiration in the protected gallery forest with high vegetation cover was calculated from stomatal conductance readings of selected species chosen from plot level data of plant diversity and abundance. Results showed that annual streamflow was significantly higher in the unprotected site than the protected site, even when normalized by catchment area. However, streamflow commenced earlier and lasted longer in the protected site than the degraded unprotected site, suggesting regulation by the greater tree density in the protected site. Streamflow correlated strongly with rainfall with the highest peak in August. As expected, transpiration measurements were less than potential evapotranspiration estimates, while rainfall exceeded ET in the water cycle. The water balance partitioning suggests that the lower vegetation cover in the unprotected catchment leads to a larger runoff in the rainy season and less infiltration, thereby leading to streams drying up earlier, than in the protected catchment. This baseline information is important in understanding the contribution of plants in water cycle regulation, for modeling integrative water management in applied research and natural resource management in sustaining water resources with changing the land cover and climate uncertainties in this data-poor region.

Keywords: evapotranspiration, gallery forest, rainfall, streamflow, transpiration

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Authors: Antonieta Heyden Megale

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With the advent of globalization, the social, cultural and linguistic situation of the whole world has changed. In this scenario, the teaching of English, in Brazil, has become a booming business and the belief that this language is essential to a successful life is played by the media that sees it as a commodity and spares no effort to sell it. In this context, it has become evident the growth of bilingual and international schools that have English and Portuguese as languages of instruction. According to federal legislation, all schools in the country must follow the Curriculum guidelines proposed by the Ministry of Education of Brazil. It is then mandatory that, in addition to the specific foreign curriculum an international school subscribes to, it must also teach all subjects of the official minimum curriculum and these subjects have to be taught in Portuguese. It is important to emphasize that, in these schools, English is the most prestigious language. Therefore, firstly, Brazilian teachers who teach Portuguese in such contexts find themselves in a situation in which they teach in a low-status language. Secondly, because such teachers’ actions are guided by a different cultural matrix, which differs considerably from Anglo-Saxon values and beliefs, they often experience intercultural conflict in their workplace. Taking it consideration, this research, focusing on the trajectories of a specific group of Brazilian teachers of Portuguese in international and bilingual schools located in the city of São Paulo, intends to analyze how they discursively represent their own professional identities and practices. More specifically the objectives of this research are to understand, from the perspective of the investigated teachers, how they (i) rebuilt narratively their professional careers and explain the factors that led them to an international or to an immersion bilingual school; (ii) position themselves with respect to their linguistic repertoire; (iii) interpret the intercultural practices they are involved with in school and (v) position themselves by foregrounding categories to determine their membership in the group of Portuguese teachers. We have worked with these teachers’ autobiographical narratives. The autobiographical approach assumes that the stories told by teachers are systems of meaning involved in the production of identities and subjectivities in the context of power relations. The teachers' narratives were elicited by the following trigger: "I would like you to tell me how you became a teacher in a bilingual/international school and what your impressions are about your work and about the context in which it is inserted". These narratives were produced orally, recorded, and transcribed for analysis. The teachers were also invited to draw their "linguistic portraits". The theoretical concepts of positioning and the indexical cues were taken into consideration in data analysis. The narratives produced by the teachers point to intercultural conflicts related to their expectations and representations of others, which are never neutral or objective truths but discursive constructions.

Keywords: bilingual schools, identity, interculturality, narrative

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Authors: Ceren Vardar Acar, Mine Caglar

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In finance, the price of a volatile asset can be modeled using fractional Brownian motion (fBm) with Hurst parameter H>1/2. The Black-Scholes model for the values of returns of an asset using fBm is given as, 〖Y_t=Y_0 e^((r+μ)t+σB)〗_t^H, 0≤t≤T where Y_0 is the initial value, r is constant interest rate, μ is constant drift and σ is constant diffusion coefficient of fBm, which is denoted by B_t^H where t≥0. Black-Scholes model can be constructed with some Markov processes such as Brownian motion. The advantage of modeling with fBm to Markov processes is its capability of exposing the dependence between returns. The real life data for a volatile asset display long-range dependence property. For this reason, using fBm is a more realistic model compared to Markov processes. Investors would be interested in any kind of information on the risk in order to manage it or hedge it. The maximum possible loss is one way to measure highest possible risk. Therefore, it is an important variable for investors. In our study, we give some theoretical bounds on the distribution of maximum possible loss of fBm. We provide both asymptotical and strong estimates for the tail probability of maximum loss of standard fBm and fBm with drift and diffusion coefficients. In the investment point of view, these results explain, how large values of possible loss behave and its bounds.

Keywords: maximum drawdown, maximum loss, fractional brownian motion, large deviation, Gaussian process

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Authors: Sidramappa Gaddnakeri, Lokanath Malligawad

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Any kind of research on production technology of individual crop / commodity /breed has not brought sustainability or stability in crop production. The sustainability of the system over years depends on the maintenance of the soil health. Organic production system includes use of organic manures, biofertilizers, green manuring for nutrient supply and biopesticides for plant protection helps to sustain the productivity even under adverse climatic condition. The study was initiated to evaluate the performance of different cropping systems under organic, inorganic and integrated production systems at The Institute of Organic Farming, University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad (Karnataka-India) under ICAR Network Project on Organic Farming. The trial was conducted for four years (2013-14 to 2016-17) on fixed site. Five cropping systems viz., sequence cropping of cowpea – safflower, greengram– rabi sorghum, maize-bengalgram, sole cropping of pigeonpea and intercropping of groundnut + cotton were evaluated under six nutrient management practices. The nutrient management practices are NM1 (100% Organic farming (Organic manures equivalent to 100% N (Cereals/cotton) or 100% P2O5 (Legumes), NM2 (75% Organic farming (Organic manures equivalent to 75% N (Cereals/cotton) or 100% P2O5 (Legumes) + Cow urine and Vermi-wash application), NM3 (Integrated farming (50% Organic + 50% Inorganic nutrients, NM4 (Integrated farming (75% Organic + 25% Inorganic nutrients, NM5 (100% Inorganic farming (Recommended dose of inorganic fertilizers)) and NM6 (Recommended dose of inorganic fertilizers + Recommended rate of farm yard manure (FYM). Among the cropping systems evaluated for different production systems indicated that the Groundnut + Hybrid cotton (2:1) intercropping system found more remunerative as compared to Sole pigeonpea cropping system, Greengram-Sorghum sequence cropping system, Maize-Chickpea sequence cropping system and Cowpea-Safflower sequence cropping system irrespective of the production systems. Production practices involving application of recommended rates of fertilizers + recommended rates of organic manures (Farmyard manure) produced higher net monetary returns and higher B:C ratio as compared to integrated production system involving application of 50 % organics + 50 % inorganic and application of 75 % organics + 25 % inorganic and organic production system only Both the two organic production systems viz., 100 % Organic production system (Organic manures equivalent to 100 % N (Cereals/cotton) or 100 % P2O5 (Legumes) and 75 % Organic production system (Organic manures equivalent to 75 % N (Cereals) or 100 % P2O5 (Legumes) + Cow urine and Vermi-wash application) are found to be on par. Further, integrated production system involving application of organic manures and inorganic fertilizers found more beneficial over organic production systems.

Keywords: cropping systems, production systems, cowpea, safflower, greengram, pigeonpea, groundnut, cotton

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Authors: Liyun Chang, Cheng-Hsiang Tsai

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To ensure the radiation precisely delivering to the target of cancer patients, the linear accelerator equipped with the pretreatment on-board imaging system is introduced and through it the patient setup is verified before the daily treatment. New generation radiotherapy using beam-intensity modulation, usually associated the treatment with steep dose gradients, claimed to have achieved both a higher degree of dose conformation in the targets and a further reduction of toxicity in normal tissues. However, this benefit is counterproductive if the beam is delivered imprecisely. To avoid shooting critical organs or normal tissues rather than the target, it is very important to carry out the quality assurance (QA) of this on-board imaging system. The QA of the On-Board Imager® (OBI) system of one Varian Clinac-iX linear accelerator was performed through our procedures modified from a relevant report and AAPM TG142. Two image modalities, 2D radiography and 3D cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT), of the OBI system were examined. The daily and monthly QA was executed for five months in the categories of safety, geometrical accuracy and image quality. A marker phantom and a blade calibration plate were used for the QA of geometrical accuracy, while the Leeds phantom and Catphan 504 phantom were used in the QA of radiographic and CBCT image quality, respectively. The reference images were generated through a GE LightSpeed CT simulator with an ADAC Pinnacle treatment planning system. Finally, the image quality was analyzed via an OsiriX medical imaging system. For the geometrical accuracy test, the average deviations of the OBI isocenter in each direction are less than 0.6 mm with uncertainties less than 0.2 mm, while all the other items have the displacements less than 1 mm. For radiographic image quality, the spatial resolution is 1.6 lp/cm with contrasts less than 2.2%. The spatial resolution, low contrast, and HU homogenous of CBCT are larger than 6 lp/cm, less than 1% and within 20 HU, respectively. All tests are within the criteria, except the HU value of Teflon measured with the full fan mode exceeding the suggested value that could be due to itself high HU value and needed to be rechecked. The OBI system in our facility was then demonstrated to be reliable with stable image quality. The QA of OBI system is really necessary to achieve the best treatment for a patient.

Keywords: CBCT, image quality, quality assurance, OBI

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Authors: Babatunde Dosumu, Obuks Ejohwomu, Akilu Yunusa-Kaltungo

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Cost estimation in construction is often difficult, particularly when dealing with risks and uncertainties, which are inevitable and peculiar to developing countries like Nigeria. Direct consequences of these are major deviations in cost, duration, and quality. The fundamental aim of this study is to develop a framework for assessing the impacts of risk on cost estimation, which in turn causes variabilities between contract sum and final account. This is very important, as initial estimates given to clients should reflect the certain magnitude of consistency and accuracy, which the client builds other planning-related activities upon, and also enhance the capabilities of construction industry professionals by enabling better prediction of the final account from the contract sum. In achieving this, a systematic literature review was conducted with cost variability and construction projects as search string within three databases: Scopus, Web of science, and Ebsco (Business source premium), which are further analyzed and gap(s) in knowledge or research discovered. From the extensive review, it was found that factors causing deviation between final accounts and contract sum ranged between 1 and 45. Besides, it was discovered that a cost estimation framework similar to Building Cost Information Services (BCIS) is unavailable in Nigeria, which is a major reason why initial estimates are very often inconsistent, leading to project delay, abandonment, or determination at the expense of the huge sum of money invested. It was concluded that the development of a cost estimation framework that is adjudged an important tool in risk shedding rather than risk-sharing in project risk management would be a panacea to cost estimation problems, leading to cost variability in the Nigerian construction industry by the time this ongoing Ph.D. research is completed. It was recommended that practitioners in the construction industry should always take into account risk in order to facilitate the rapid development of the construction industry in Nigeria, which should give stakeholders a more in-depth understanding of the estimation effectiveness and efficiency to be adopted by stakeholders in both the private and public sectors.

Keywords: cost variability, construction projects, future studies, Nigeria

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Authors: Reyhaneh Soltanshah, Hamid R. Zarandi

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In order to be more efficient in industries that are related to computer systems, software testing is necessary despite spending time and money. In the embedded system software test, complete knowledge of the embedded system architecture is necessary to avoid significant costs and damages. Software tests increase the price of the final product. The aim of this article is to provide a method to reduce time and cost in tests based on program structure. First, a complete review of eleven white box test methods based on ISO/IEC/IEEE 29119 2015 and 2021 versions has been done. The proposed algorithm is designed using two versions of the 29119 standards, and some white-box testing methods that are expensive or have little coverage have been removed. On each of the functions, white box test methods were applied according to the 29119 standard and then the proposed algorithm was implemented on the functions. To speed up the implementation of the proposed method, the Unity framework has been used with some changes. Unity framework can be used in embedded software testing due to its open source and ability to implement white box test methods. The test items obtained from these two approaches were evaluated using a mathematical ratio, which in various software mining reduced between 50% and 80% of the test cost and reached the desired result with the minimum number of test items.

Keywords: embedded software, reduce costs, software testing, white-box testing

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Authors: Jun Wang, Ge Zhang

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Machine learning has been used in many areas today. It thrives at reviewing large volumes of data and identifying patterns and trends that might not be apparent to a human. Given the huge potential benefit and the amount of data available in the financial market, it is not surprising to see machine learning applied to various financial products. While future prices of financial securities are extremely difficult to forecast, we study them from a different angle. Instead of trying to forecast future prices, we apply machine learning algorithms to predict the direction of future price movement, in particular, whether a sector Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) would outperform or underperform the market in the next week or in the next month. We apply several machine learning algorithms for this prediction. The algorithms are Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), and Neural Networks (NN). We show that these machine learning algorithms, most notably GNB and NN, have some predictive power in forecasting out-performance and under-performance out of sample. We also try to explore whether it is possible to utilize the predictions from these algorithms to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of the S&P 500 index. The trading strategy to explore out-performance predictions does not perform very well, but the trading strategy to explore under-performance predictions can earn higher returns than simply holding the S&P 500 index out of sample.

Keywords: machine learning, ETF prediction, dynamic trading, asset allocation

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Authors: Lo Kar Yin

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In view of the increasing speed and quantity of the housing supply, building, and civil engineering infrastructure works triggered by the pandemic across the globe, contractors, professional services providers (PSP), including consultants (e.g., architect, project manager, civil/geotechnical/structural engineer, building services engineer, quantity surveyor/cost manager, etc.) and suppliers have faced tremendous challenges of the fierce market, limited manpower, and resources under contract prices fluctuation and competitive fee and price. With qualitative analysis, this paper is to review the available information from the industry stakeholders with a view to finding solutions for enhancing efficiency, safety, and quality of construction value chain services for public and private organizations/companies’ sustainable growth, not limited to checking the deliverables and data transfer from multi-disciplinary parties. Technology, contracts, and people are the key requirements for shaping the construction industry. With the integration of a modern engineering contract (e.g., NEC) collaborative approach, practical workflows are designed to address loopholes together with different levels of people employment/retention and technology adoption to achieve the best value for money.

Keywords: efficiency, safety, quality, technology, contract, people, sustainable solutions, construction, services, integration

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Authors: Misra Ayse Adsiz, Selim Selvi

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In today's world, technology is competing with time. In order to catch up with the world's companies and adapt quickly to the changes, it is necessary to speed up the processes and keep pace with the rate of change of the technology. The missile system design processes, which are handled with classical methods, keep behind in this race. Because customer requirements are not clear, and demands are changing again and again in the design process. Therefore, in the system design process, a methodology suitable for the missile system design dynamics has been investigated and the processes used for catching up the era are examined. When commonly used design processes are analyzed, it is seen that any one of them is dynamic enough for today’s conditions. So a hybrid design process is established. After a detailed review of the existing processes, it is decided to focus on the Scrum Framework and Agile Philosophy. Scrum is a process framework. It is focused on to develop software and handling change management with rapid methods. In addition, agile philosophy is intended to respond quickly to changes. In this study, it is aimed to integrate Scrum framework and agile philosophy, which are the most appropriate ways for rapid production and change adaptation, into the missile system design process. With this approach, it is aimed that the design team, involved in the system design processes, is in communication with the customer and provide an iterative approach in change management. These methods, which are currently being used in the software industry, have been integrated with the product design process. A team is created for system design process. The roles of Scrum Team are realized with including the customer. A scrum team consists of the product owner, development team and scrum master. Scrum events, which are short, purposeful and time-limited, are organized to serve for coordination rather than long meetings. Instead of the classic system design methods used in product development studies, a missile design is made with this blended method. With the help of this design approach, it is become easier to anticipate changing customer demands, produce quick solutions to demands and combat uncertainties in the product development process. With the feedback of the customer who included in the process, it is worked towards marketing optimization, design and financial optimization.

Keywords: agile, design, missile, scrum

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Authors: Mahnaz Babaei Morad, Mojtaba Zargarzadeh, Behnaz Babaei Morad, Najmeh Salari Nasab

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Green roofs and walls are one of the key elements of sustainable design in ecology design of cities. Lack of open space and urban green at different scales from one neighborhood to district is as subject that has become challenge for urban management Use change from green space to other use is familiar for Iranian citizens. The high price of land in this area, it seems only justified reason for municipalities that reduce the green space per capita. In this paper, examines the rooftops of Iranian city as a fifth facade, as well as the opportunity to offset some of the capital's urban spaces that has been removed. Today green roof isn't a matter of taste in the world. Be proportional to the quantity and quality of the architecture become the first concern of urban professionals and ecological approaches such as "sustainable" and "green architecture" is checked. In this paper we review and present examples of green roofs have been executed in Iran over the past decade. Survey some of the urban management policies in leading province in this article constitutes the second dimension. The purpose of this paper is study example of green roof performance in different parts of Iran, along with criteria for sustainable urban development and achieves the policies and components collection of implementation sustainable development , specific of Iranian green roof and monitor the develops ways to it.

Keywords: sustainable development, green roofs, Iran, green architecture

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Authors: Mulatu Kassie Birhanu

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Electro-oxidation of glycerol is an important process to convert the less price glycerol into other expensive (essential) and energy-rich chemicals. In this study, nickel was electro-deposited on laboratory-made carbon ceramic electrode (CCE) substrate using electrochemical techniques that is cyclic voltammetry (CV) to prepare an electro-catalyst (Ni/CCE) for electro-oxidation of glycerol. Carbon ceramic electrode was prepared from graphite and methyl tri-methoxy silane (MTMOS) through the processes called hydrolysis and condensation with methanol in acidic media (HCl) by a sol-gel technique. Physico-chemical characterization of bare CCE and modified (deposited) CCE (Ni/CCE) was measured and evaluated by Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD). Electro-oxidation of glycerol was performed in 0.1 M glycerol in alkaline media (0.5 M NaOH). High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) technique was used to identify and determine the concentration of glycerol, reaction intermediates and oxidized products of glycerol after its electro-oxidation is performed. The conversion (%) of electro-oxidation of glycerol during 9-hour oxidation was 73% and 36% at 1.8V and 1.6V vs. RHE, respectively. Formate, oxalate, glycolate and glycerate are the main oxidation products of glycerol with selectivity (%) of 75%, 8.6%, 1.1% and 0.95 % at 1.8 V vs. RHE and 55.4%, 2.2%, 1.0% and 0.6% at 1.6 V vs. RHE respectively. The result indicates that formate is the main product in the electro-oxidation of glycerol on Ni/CCE using the indicated applied potentials.

Keywords: carbon-ceramic electrode, electrodeposition, electro-oxidation, Methyltrimethoxysilane

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Authors: Seyed-Yaser Nabavi-Chashmi, Davood Asadi, Karim Ahmadi, Eren Demir

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The landing phase of a UAV is very critical as there are many uncertainties in this phase, which can easily entail a hard landing or even a crash. In this paper, the estimation of relative distance and velocity to the ground, as one of the most important processes during the landing phase, is studied. Using accurate measurement sensors as an alternative approach can be very expensive for sensors like LIDAR, or with a limited operational range, for sensors like ultrasonic sensors. Additionally, absolute positioning systems like GPS or IMU cannot provide distance to the ground independently. The focus of this paper is to determine whether we can measure the relative distance and velocity of UAV and ground in the landing phase using just low-resolution images taken by a monocular camera. The Lucas-Konda feature detection technique is employed to extract the most suitable feature in a series of images taken during the UAV landing. Two different approaches based on Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) have been proposed, and their performance in estimation of the relative distance and velocity are compared. The first approach uses the kinematics of the UAV as the process and the calculated optical flow as the measurement; On the other hand, the second approach uses the feature’s projection on the camera plane (pixel position) as the measurement while employing both the kinematics of the UAV and the dynamics of variation of projected point as the process to estimate both relative distance and relative velocity. To verify the results, a sequence of low-quality images taken by a camera that is moving on a specifically developed testbed has been used to compare the performance of the proposed algorithm. The case studies show that the quality of images results in considerable noise, which reduces the performance of the first approach. On the other hand, using the projected feature position is much less sensitive to the noise and estimates the distance and velocity with relatively high accuracy. This approach also can be used to predict the future projected feature position, which can drastically decrease the computational workload, as an important criterion for real-time applications.

Keywords: altitude estimation, drone, image processing, trajectory planning

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Authors: Selma Sbit, Mohamed Bechir Dadi, Belgacem Chibani Rhaimi

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Incorporating Home eNodeB (HeNB) in cellular networks, e.g. Long Term Evolution Advanced (LTE-A), is beneficial for extending coverage and enhancing capacity at low price especially within the non-line-of sight (NLOS) environments such as homes. HeNB or femtocell is a small low powered base station which provides radio coverage to the mobile users in an indoor environment. This deployment results in a heterogeneous network where the available spectrum becomes shared between two layers. Therefore, a problem of Inter Cell Interference (ICI) appears. This issue is the main challenge in LTE-A. To deal with this challenge, various techniques based on frequency, time and power control are proposed. This paper deals with the impact of carrier aggregation and higher order MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output) schemes on the LTE-Advanced performance. Simulation results show the advantages of these schemes on the system capacity (4.10⁹ b/s/Hz when bandwidth B=100 MHz and when applying MIMO 8x8 for SINR=30 dB), maximum theoretical peak data rate (more than 4 Gbps for B=100 MHz and when MIMO 8x8 is used) and spectral efficiency (15 b/s/Hz and 30b/s/Hz when MIMO 4x4 and MIMO 8x8 are applying respectively for SINR=30 dB).

Keywords: capacity, carrier aggregation, LTE-Advanced, MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output), peak data rate, spectral efficiency

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Authors: Behnam Habibi Dargah

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The economics of cost-benefit theory seeks to monitor claims and determine their final price. The cost of litigation is important because it is a measure of the efficiency of the justice system. From an economic point of view, the cost of litigation is considered to be the point of equilibrium of litigation, whereby litigation is regarded as a high-risk investment and is initiated when the costs are less than the probable and expected benefits. Costs are economically separated into private and social costs. Private cost includes material (direct and indirect) and spiritual costs. The social costs of litigation are also subsidized-centric due to the public and governmental nature of litigation and cover both types of bureaucratic bureaucracy and the costs of judicial misconduct. Macroeconomic policy in the economics of justice is the reverse engineering of controlling the social costs of litigation by employing selective litigation and working on the judicial culture to achieve rationality in the monopoly system. Procedures for controlling and managing court costs are also circumscribed to economic patterns in the field. Rational cost allocation model and cost transfer model. The rational allocation model deals with cost-tolerance systems, and the transfer model also considers three models of transferability, including legal, judicial and contractual transferability, which will be described and explored in the present article in a comparative manner.

Keywords: cost of litigation, economics of litigation, private cost, social cost, cost of litigation

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Authors: Marwa M. Ibrahim

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The objective of this research is to study the technical and economic performance of wind/diesel/battery (W/D/B) off-grid system supplying a small remote gathering of four families using the HOMER software package. The second objective is to study the effect of wind energy system on the cost of generated electricity considering the cost of reducing CO₂ emissions as external benefit of wind turbines, no pollutant emission through the operational phase. The system consists of a small wind turbine, battery storage, and diesel generator. The electrical energy is to cater to the basic needs for which the daily load pattern is estimated at 8 kW peak. Net Present Cost (NPC) and Cost of Energy (COE) are used as economic criteria, while the measure of performance is % of power shortage. Technical and economic parameters are defined to estimate the feasibility of the system under study. Optimum system configurations are estimated for the selected site in Egypt. Using HOMER software, the simulation results shows that W/D/B systems are economical for the assumed community site as the price of generated electricity is about 0.285 $/kWh, without taking external benefits into considerations and 0.221 if CO₂ emissions taken into consideration W/D/B systems are more economical than alone diesel system as the COE is 0.432 $/kWh for diesel alone.

Keywords: renewable energy, hybrid energy system, on-off grid system, simulation, optimization and environmental impacts

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Authors: Sirirat Taneerananon

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This paper presents the results of a study of the ultra-poor in the south of Thailand, revisited after 10 years since the original study in 2000. The original study was conducted in four provinces. The first two namely Phatthalung and Nakorn were chosen to represent the Thai Buddhists and the others, Satun and Pattani were chosen to represent the Thai Muslims. For this study, only the results from the three provinces except Pattani are reported as it was difficult and dangerous to conduct fieldwork in Pattani due to the continued unrest in the area since 2005. The objectives of the study are to find out the changes of the poverty situation after 10 years and to see the impacts of the poverty reduction projects implemented by the government on the poor. The research methodology used both quantitative and qualitative methods. The same villages in the four provinces studied in 1999 were again chosen. In each village, five ultra-poor people and heads of the villages were interviewed. The results show that the poverty situation of the ultra-poor groups has not changed much since they lacked the basic key factor to get themselves out of poverty: The ownership of land. Their chronic poverty situation has been passed on from the last generation. In the province of Phatthalung, the ultra-poor have improved in terms of economic situation because of the big increase in the price of rubber. However, the same could not be said for other provinces. Even though the government’s projects have not reduced the poverty directly, the projects have significantly contributed to the improvement of the quality of life of the poor and the people in the areas.

Keywords: poverty, Southern Thailand, ultra-poor, social sustainability

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Authors: Frankie Burgos, Emely Munar, Conrado Basa

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This paper aimed at developing an artificial neural network (ANN) model specifically for the Philippine Stock Exchange index closing value. The inputs to the ANN are US Dollar and Philippine Peso(USD-PHP) exchange rate, GDP growth of the country, quarterly inflation rate, 10-year bond yield, credit rating of the country, previous open, high, low, close values and volume of trade of the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi), gold price of the previous day, National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ), Standard and Poor’s 500 (S & P 500) and the iShares MSCI Philippines ETF (EPHE) previous closing value. The target is composed of the closing value of the PSEi during the 627 trading days from November 3, 2011, to May 30, 2014. MATLAB’s Neural Network toolbox was employed to create, train and simulate the network using multi-layer feed forward neural network with back-propagation algorithm. The results satisfactorily show that the neural network developed has the ability to model the PSEi, which is affected by both internal and external economic factors. It was found out that the inputs used are the main factors that influence the movement of the PSEi closing value.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, artificial intelligence, philippine stocks exchange index, stocks trading

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Authors: Abinet Tilahun Aweke

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In Europe, there is a growing interest in food produced ethically and with a broader benefit for society. Consumers could consider numerous extrinsic and intrinsic quality attributes, including organically produced, when selecting meat to purchase. Many studies recorded various reasons why consumers may choose to pay the premium price for organic foods, although willingness to pay (WTP) for organic meat and motives behind the WTPs differ depending on the meat type/cut and place. Employing state of the art stated preference (SP) method, this study seeks to find out how environmental attitudes and health concerns shape the demand for organic agriculture in Norway. More specifically, this paper contributes to the existing knowledge on consumer preferences by exploring if consumer's attitude towards carnivore-sheep conflict affects the willingness to pay (WTP) for organic meat. This study will also have a methodological contribution by investigating whether having environmental attitude and carnivore-livestock conflict questions prior to the organic meat WTP question will significantly affect the will to pay and the amount paid. Understanding the effect of the content of the auxiliary questions posed before WTP questions will help to improve future CV survey designs and hence the validity of the results obtained.

Keywords: attitude, consumer reference, contingent valuation, meat, organic, stated preference, survey design

Procedia PDF Downloads 91