Search results for: climate change risks

Authors: Mohammed Sghir Taleb

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Morocco is characterized by a great richness and diversity in aromatic and medicinal plants and it has an ancestral knowledge in the use of plants for medicinal and cosmetic purposes. In effect, the poverty of riparian, specially, mountain populations have greatly contributed to the development of traditional pharmacopoeia in Morocco. The analysis of the bibliographic data showed that a large number of plants in Morocco are exploited for aromatic and medicinal purposes and several of them are commercialized internationally. However, these potentialities of aromatic and medicinal plants are currently subjected to climate change and strong human pressures: Collecting fruits, agriculture development, harvesting plants, urbanization, overgrazing...

Keywords: aromatic, medicinal, plant, Morocco

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Authors: Asit K. Sikary, O. P. Murty

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Adipocere formation is a modification of the process of putrefaction. It consists mainly of saturated fatty acids, formed by the post-mortem hydrolysis and hydrogenation of body fats with the help of bacterial enzymes in the presence of warmth, moisture and anaerobic bacteria. In temperate climate, it takes weeks to develop while in India it starts to begin within 4-5 days. In this study, we have collected cases with adipocere formation, which were from the South Delhi region (average room temperature 27-390C) and autopsied at our centre. Details of the circumstances of the death, cause and time of death, surrounding environment and demographic profile of the deceased were taken into account. Total 16 cases were included in this study. Adipocere formation was predominantly present over cheeks, shoulder, breast, flanks, buttocks, and thighs. Out of 16, 11 cases were found in a dry atmosphere, 5 cases were brought from the water. There were 5 cases in which adipocere formation was seen in less than 2 days, and among them, in 1 case, as early as one day. This study showed that adipocere formation can be seen as early as 1 day in a hot and humid environment.

Keywords: adipocere, drowning, hanging, humid environment, strangulation, subtropical climate

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Authors: Jose CanIzares

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In the last decades, resilience has received much attention in relation to understanding and managing new forms of risk, especially in the context of urban adaptation to climate change. There are abundant concerns, however, on how to best interpret resilience and related ideas, and on whether they can guide ethically appropriate risk-related or adaptation efforts. Narrative creation and framing are critical steps in shaping public discussion and policy in large-scale interventions, since they favor or inhibit early decision and interpretation habits, which can be morally sensitive and then become persistent on time. This article adds to such framing process by contesting a conventional narrative on resilience and offering an alternative one. Conventionally, present ideas on resilience are traced to the work of ecologist C. S. Holling, especially to his article Resilience and Stability in Ecosystems. This article is usually portrayed as a contribution of complex systems thinking to theoretical ecology, where Holling appeals to resilience in order to challenge received views on ecosystem stability and the diversity-stability hypothesis. In this regard, resilience is construed as a “purely scientific”, precise and descriptive concept, denoting a complex property that allows ecosystems to persist, or to maintain functions, after disturbance. Yet, these formal features of resilience supposedly changed with Holling’s later work in the 90s, where, it is argued, Holling begun to use resilience as a more pragmatic “boundary term”, aimed at unifying transdisciplinary research about risks, ecological or otherwise, and at articulating public debate and governance strategies on the issue. In the conventional story, increased vagueness and degrees of normativity are the price to pay for this conceptual shift, which has made the term more widely usable, but also incompatible with scientific purposes and morally problematic (if not completely objectionable). This paper builds on a detailed analysis of Holling’s early work to propose an alternative narrative. The study will show that the “complexity turn” has often entangled theoretical and pragmatic aims. Accordingly, Holling’s primary aim was to fight what he termed “pathologies of natural resource management” or “pathologies of command and control management”, and so, the terms of his reform of ecosystem science are partly subordinate to the details of his proposal for reforming the management sciences. As regards resilience, Holling used it as a polysemous, ambiguous and normative term: sometimes, as an instrumental value that is closely related to various stability concepts; other times, and more crucially, as an intrinsic value and a tool for attacking efficiency and instrumentalism in management. This narrative reveals the limitations of its conventional alternative and has several practical advantages. It captures well the structure and purposes of Holling’s project, and the various roles of resilience in it. It helps to link Holling’s early work with other philosophical and ideological shifts at work in the 70s. It highlights the currency of Holling’s early work for present research and action in fields such as risk and climate adaptation. And it draws attention to morally relevant aspects of resilience that the conventional narrative neglects.

Keywords: resilience, complexity turn, risk management, positivistic, framing

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Authors: Alex Baratta

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In Britain, accent is arguably still a sensitive issue, and for broad regional accents in particular, the connotations can often be quite negative. Within primary and secondary teaching, what might the implications be for teachers with such accents? To investigate this, the study collected the views of 32 British trainee teachers via semi-structured interviews, and questionnaires, to understand how their accent plays a role in the construction of a professional identity. From the results, it is clear that for teachers from the North and Midlands, in particular, accent modification is something that is required by their mentors; for teachers from the Home Counties, accent is rarely mentioned. While the mentors’ rationale for accent modification is to ensure teachers are better understood and/or to sound ‘professional’, many teachers feel that it is a matter of linguistic prejudice and therefore regard an accent modified for someone else as leading to a fraudulent identity. Moreover, some of the comments can be quite blunt, such as the Midlands teacher who resides in the South being told that it was ‘best to go back to where you come from’ if she couldn’t modify her accent to Southern pronunciation. From the results, there are three broad phonological changes expected: i) Northern/Midlands-accented teachers need to change to Southern pronunciation in words such as bath and bus; thus, a change from [baθ] [bʊs] to [bɑ:θ] [bʌs], ii) Teachers from the North, notably Yorkshire, told to change from monophthongs to diphthongs; thus, a change from [go:] to [goʊ], iii) Glottal stops are to be avoided; a teacher from South London was told by her mentor to write the word ‘water’ with a capital t (waTer), in order to avoid her use of a glottal stop. Thus, in a climate of respect for diversity and equality, this study is timely for the following reasons. First, it addresses an area for which equality is not necessarily relevant – that of accent in British teaching. Second, while many British people arguably have an instinct for ‘broad’ versus more ‘general’ versions of regional accents, there appear to be no studies which have attempted to explain what this means from a purely phonological perspective. Finally, given that the Teachers’ Standards do not mention accent as part of the desired linguistic standards, this study hopes to start a national debate as to whether or not they should, rather than shy away from what can be a potentially complex – and sensitive – topic.

Keywords: accent, accommodation, identity, teaching

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Authors: Marcelo Dias Carvalho, Leticia Ishikawa

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Supply Chain Risk Management refers to a set of strategies used by companies to avoid supply chain disruption caused by damage at production facilities, natural disasters, capacity issues, inventory problems, incorrect forecasts, and delays. Many companies use the techniques of the Toyota Production System, which in a way goes against a better management of supply chain risks. This paper studies key events in some multinationals to analyze the trade-off between the best supply chain risk management techniques and management policies designed to create lean enterprises. The result of a good balance of these actions is the reduction of losses, increased customer trust in the company and better preparedness to face the general risks of a supply chain.

Keywords: just in time, lean manufacturing, supply chain disruptions, supply chain management

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Authors: Farshad Ghodoosi

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This article analyzes the effect of supervening events in contracts. Contracts serve an important function: allocation of risks. In spite of its importance, the case law and the doctrine are messy and inconsistent. This article provides a fresh look at excuse doctrines (i.e., force majeure, impracticability, impossibility, and frustration) with a focus on force majeure clauses. The article makes the following contributions: First, it furnishes a new conceptual and theoretical framework of excuse doctrines. By distilling the decisions, it shows that excuse doctrines rests on the triangle of control, foreseeability, and contract language. Second, it analyzes force majeure clauses used by S&P 500 companies to understand the stickiness and similarity of such clauses and the events they cover. Third, using computational and statistical tools, it analyzes US cases since 1810 in order to assess the weight given to the triangle of control, foreseeability, and contract language. It shows that the control factor plays an important role in force majeure analysis, while the contractual interpretation is the least important factor. The Article concludes that it is the standard for control -whether the supervening event is beyond the control of the party- that determines the outcome of cases in the force majeure context and not necessarily the contractual language. This article has important implications on COVID-19-related contractual cases. Unlike the prevailing narrative that it is the language of the force majeure clause that’s determinative, this article shows that the primarily focus of the inquiry will be on whether the effects of COVID-19 have been beyond the control of the promisee. Normatively, the Article suggests that the trifactor of control, foreseeability, and contractual language are not effective for allocation of legal risks in times of crises. It puts forward a novel approach to force majeure clauses whereby that the courts should instead focus on the degree to which parties have relied on (expected) performance, in particular during the time of crisis.

Keywords: contractual risks, force majeure clauses, foreseeability, control, contractual language, computational analysis

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Authors: Sergejs Kolesovs, Pavels Semjonovs

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Whey and dairy wastewaters if disposed in the environment without proper treatment, cause serious environmental risks contributing to overall and particular environmental pollution and climate change. Biological treatment of wastewater is considered to be most eco-friendly approach, as compared to the chemical treatment methods. Research shows, that dairy wastewater can potentially be remediated by use of microalgae thussignificantly reducing the content of carbohydrates, P, N, K and other pollutants. Moreover, it has been shown, that use of dairy wastewaters results in higher microalgae biomass production. In recent decades microalgal biomass has entailed a big interest for its potential applications in pharmaceuticals, biomedicine, health supplementation, cosmetics, animal feed, plant protection, bioremediation and biofuels. It was shown, that lipids productivity on whey and dairy wastewater is higher as compared with standard cultivation media and occurred without the necessity of inducing specific stress conditions such as N starvation. Moreover, microalgae biomass production as usually associated with high production costs may benefit from perspective of both reasons – enhanced microalgae biomass or target substances productivity on cheap growth substrate and effective management of whey and dairy wastewaters, which issignificant for decrease of total production costs in both processes. Obviously, it became especially important when large volume and low cost industrial microalgal biomass production is anticipated for further use in agriculture of crops as plant growth stimulants, biopesticides soil fertilisers or remediating solutions. Environmental load of dairy wastewaters can be significantly decreased when microalgae are grown in coculture with other microorganisms. This enhances the utilisation of lactose, which is main C source in whey and dairy wastewaters when it is not metabolised easily by most microalgal species chosen. Our study showsthat certain microalgae strains can be used in treatment of residual sugars containing industrial wastewaters and decrease of their concentration thus approving that further extensive research on dairy wastewaters pre-treatment optionsfor effective cultivation of microalgae, carbon uptake and metabolism, strain selection and choice of coculture candidates is needed for further optimisation of the process.

Keywords: microalgae, whey, dairy wastewaters, sustainability, plant biostimulants

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Authors: Borzou Faramarzi, Farideh Azimi, Azam Gohardoust, Abbas Ghasemi Ghasemvand, Maryam Mirzaei, Mandana Amani

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In this study, attempts were made to examine and analyze the trend for rainfall changes in Kangan City, Booshehr Province, during the time span 1964 to 2003, using seven rainfall threshold indices based on 50 climate extremes indices approved by WMO–CCL/CLIVAR. These indices include days with heavy precipitations, days with rainfalls, frequency of rainfall threshold values, intensity of rainfall threshold values, percentage of rainfall threshold values, successive days of rainfall, and successive days with no precipitation. Results are indicative of the fact that Kangan City climatic conditions have become more dried than before. Indices days with heavy precipitations and days with rainfalls do not show a certain trend in Kangan City. Frequency, intensity, and percentage of rainfall threshold values in the station under investigation do not indicate a certain trend. In analysis of time series of rainfall extreme indices, generally, it was revealed that Kangan City is influenced by general factors of global warming. Calculation of values for the next 10 years based on ARIMA models demonstrates a continuation of warming trends in Kangan City. On the whole, rainfall conditions in Kangan City have experienced more dry periods compared to the past, the trend which is also observable for next 10 years.

Keywords: climatic indices, climate change, extreme temperature and precipitation, time series

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Authors: Anuschka Curran, Sandra Barnard

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Coral reefs are of the most diverse and productive ecosystems on the planet, but due to the impact of climate change, these infrastructures are dying off primarily through coral bleaching. Coral bleaching can be described as the process by which zooxanthellae (algal endosymbionts) are expelled from the gastrodermal cavity of the respective coral host, causing increased coral whitening. The general consensus is that mass coral bleaching is due to the dysfunction of photosynthetic processes in the zooxanthellae as a result of the combined action of elevated temperature and light-stress. The question then is, do zooxanthellae have the potential to play a key role in the future of coral reef restoration through genetic engineering? The aim of this study is firstly to review the different zooxanthellae taxa and their traits with respect to environmental stress, and secondly, to review the information available on the protective mechanisms present in zooxanthellae cells when experiencing temperature fluctuations, specifically concentrating on heat shock proteins and the antioxidant stress response of zooxanthellae. The eight clades (A-H) previously recognized were redefined into seven genera. Different zooxanthellae taxa exhibit different traits, such as their photosynthetic stress responses to light and temperature. Zooxanthellae have the ability to determine the amount and type of heat shock proteins (hsps) present during a heat response. The zooxanthellae can regulate both the host’s respective hsps as well as their own. Hsps, generally found in genotype C3 zooxanthellae, such as Hsp70 and Hsp90, contribute to the thermal stress response of the respective coral host. Antioxidant activity found both within exposed coral tissue, and the zooxanthellae cells can prevent coral hosts from expelling their endosymbionts. The up-regulation of gene expression, which may mitigate thermal stress induction of any of the physiological aspects discussed, can ensure stable coral-zooxanthellae symbiosis in the future. It presents a viable alternative strategy to preserve reefs amidst climate change. In conclusion, despite their unusual molecular design, genetic engineering poses as a useful tool in understanding and manipulating variables and systems within zooxanthellae and therefore presents a solution that can ensure stable coral-zooxanthellae symbiosis in the future.

Keywords: antioxidant enzymes, genetic engineering, heat-shock proteins, Symbiodinium

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Authors: Srinivasa Rao Gadde

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In this article, we considered a group acceptance sampling plans for exponentiated half logistic distribution when the life-test is truncated at a pre-specified time. It is assumed that the index parameter of the exponentiated half logistic distribution is known. The design parameters such as the number of groups and the acceptance number are obtained by satisfying the producer’s and consumer’s risks at the specified quality levels in terms of medians and 10th percentiles under the assumption that the termination time and the number of items in each group are pre-fixed. Finally, an example is given to illustration the methodology.

Keywords: group acceptance sampling plan, operating characteristic, consumer and producer’s risks, truncated life-test

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Authors: Philip Symonds, Jon Taylor, Zaid Chalabi, Michael Davies

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With the world climate projected to warm and major cities in developing countries becoming increasingly populated and polluted, governments are tasked with the problem of overheating and air quality in residential buildings. This paper presents the development of an adaptable model of these risks. Simulations are performed using the EnergyPlus building physics software. An accurate metamodel is formed by randomly sampling building input parameters and training on the outputs of EnergyPlus simulations. Metamodels are used to vastly reduce the amount of computation time required when performing optimisation and sensitivity analyses. Neural Networks (NNs) are compared to a Radial Basis Function (RBF) algorithm when forming a metamodel. These techniques were implemented using the PyBrain and scikit-learn python libraries, respectively. NNs are shown to perform around 15% better than RBFs when estimating overheating and air pollution metrics modelled by EnergyPlus.

Keywords: neural networks, radial basis functions, metamodelling, python machine learning libraries

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Authors: Bonguen Onouck Rolande Carole, Ndongo Barthelemy

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The climate change effects on the Lake Chad, coupled with population growth, have pushed large masses of people of various origins towards the lower part of the lower Logonewatershed in search of the benefits of environmental services, causing pressure on the environment and its resources. Economic services are therefore threatened, and the decrease in resources contributes to the deterioration of the social wellbeing resulting to conflicts among/between local communities, immigrants, displaced people, and foreigners. This paper is an information contribution on ethnical conflicts drivers in the area and the provided local management mechanisms such can help mitigate present or future conflicts in similar areas. It also prints out the necessity to alleviate water access deficit and encourage good practices for the population wellbeing. In order to meet the objective, in 2018, through the interface of the World Bank-Cameroon project-PULCI, data were collected on the field directly by discussing with the population and visiting infrastructures, indirectly by a questionnaire survey. Two administrative divisions were chosen (Logoneet Chari, Mayo-Danay) in which targeted localities were Zina, Mazera, Lahai, Andirni near the Waza Park and Yagoua, Tekele, Pouss, respectively. Due to some sociocultural and religious reasons, some information were acquired through the traditional chiefs. A desk study analysis based on resources access and availability conflicts history, and management mechanism was done. As results, roots drivers of ethnical conflicts are struggles over natural resources access, and the possibility of conflicts increases as the scarcity and vulnerabilities persist, creating more sociocultural gaps and tensions. The mitigation mechanisms though fruitful, are limited. There is poor documentation on the topic, the resources management policies of this basin are unsuitable and ineffective for some. Therefore, the restoration of environmental and ecosystems, the mitigation of climate change effects, and food insecurity are the challenges that must be met to alleviate conflicts in these localities.

Keywords: ethnic, communities, conflicts, mitigation mechanisms, natural resources, logone basin

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Authors: Mustapha Ouardouz, Mina Amharref, Abdessamed Bernoussi

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The future energy, for limited energy resources countries, goes through renewable energies (solar, wind etc.). The renewable energies constitute a major component of the energy strategy to cover a substantial part of the growing needs and contribute to environmental protection by replacing fossil fuels. Indeed, sustainable development involves the promotion of renewable energy and the preservation of the environment by the use of clean energy technologies to limit emissions of greenhouse gases and reducing the pressure exerted on the forest cover. So the impact studies, of the energy use on the environment and farm-related risks are necessary. For that, a global approach integrating all the various sectors involved in such project seems to be the best approach. In this paper we present an approach based on the multi criteria analysis and the realization of one pilot to achieve the development of an innovative geo-intelligent environmental platform. An implementation of this platform will collect, process, analyze and manage environmental data in connection with the nature of used energy in the studied region. As an application we consider a region in the north of Morocco characterized by intense agricultural and industrials activities and using diverse renewable energy. The strategic goals of this platform are; the decision support for better governance, improving the responsiveness of public and private companies connected by providing them in real time with reliable data, modeling and simulation possibilities of energy scenarios, the identification of socio-technical solutions to introduce renewable energies and estimate technical and implantable potential by socio-economic analyzes and the assessment of infrastructure for the region and the communities, the preservation and enhancement of natural resources for better citizenship governance through democratization of access to environmental information, the tool will also perform simulations integrating environmental impacts of natural disasters, particularly those linked to climate change. Indeed extreme cases such as floods, droughts and storms will be no longer rare and therefore should be integrated into such projects.

Keywords: renewable energies, decision aided tool, environment, simulation

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Authors: Alexandra Steed

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Alexandra Steed URBAN was commissioned to undertake the South Essex Green and Blue Infrastructure Study (SEGBI) on behalf of the Association of South Essex Local Authorities (ASELA): a partnership of seven neighboring councils within the Thames Estuary. Located on London’s doorstep, the 70,000-hectare region is under extraordinary pressure for regeneration, further development, and economic expansion, yet faces extreme challenges: sea-level rise and inadequate flood defenses, stormwater flooding and threatened infrastructure, loss of internationally important habitats, significant existing community deprivation, and lack of connectivity and access to green space. The brief was to embrace these challenges in the creation of a document that would form a key part of ASELA’s Joint Strategic Framework and feed into local plans and master plans. Thus, helping to tackle climate change, ecological collapse, and social inequity at a regional scale whilst creating a relationship and awareness between urban communities and the surrounding landscapes and nature. The SEGBI project applied a ‘land-based’ methodology, combined with a co-design approach involving numerous stakeholders, to explore how living infrastructure can address these significant issues, reshape future planning and development, and create thriving places for the whole community of life. It comprised three key stages, including Baseline Review; Green and Blue Infrastructure Assessment; and the final Green and Blue Infrastructure Report. The resulting proposals frame an ambitious vision for the delivery of a new regional South Essex Estuary (SEE) Park – 24,000 hectares of protected and connected landscapes. This unified parkland system will drive effective place-shaping and “leveling up” for the most deprived communities while providing large-scale nature recovery and biodiversity net gain. Comprehensive analysis and policy recommendations ensure best practices will be embedded within planning documents and decisions guiding future development. Furthermore, a Natural Capital Account was undertaken as part of the strategy showing the tremendous economic value of the natural assets. This strategy sets a pioneering precedent that demonstrates how the prioritisation of living infrastructure has the capacity to address climate change and ecological collapse, while also supporting sustainable housing, healthier communities, and resilient infrastructures. It was only achievable through a collaborative and cross-boundary approach to strategic planning and growth, with a shared vision of place, and a strong commitment to delivery. With joined-up thinking and a joined-up region, a more impactful plan for South Essex was developed that will lead to numerous environmental, social, and economic benefits across the region, and enhancing the landscape and natural environs on the periphery of one of the largest cities in the world.

Keywords: climate change, green and blue infrastructure, landscape architecture, master planning, regional planning, social equity

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Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

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The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

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Authors: O. Benabdeljelil, A. Karioun, S. Amami, R. Rouger, M. Hamidine

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A model for preventing the risks related to climate conditions in the agricultural sector is presented. It will determine the yearly optimum premium to be paid by a producer in order to reach his required turnover. The model is based on both climatic stability and 'soft' responses of usually grown species to average climate variations at the same place and inside a safety ball which can be determined from past meteorological data. This allows the use of linear regression expression for dependence of production result in terms of driving meteorological parameters, the main ones of which are daily average sunlight, rainfall and temperature. By simple best parameter fit from the expert table drawn with professionals, optimal representation of yearly production is determined from records of previous years, and yearly payback is evaluated from minimum yearly produced turnover. The model also requires accurate pricing of commodity at N+1. Therefore, a pricing model is developed using 3 state variables, namely the spot price, the difference between the mean-term and the long-term forward price, and the long-term structure of the model. The use of historical data enables to calibrate the parameters of state variables, and allows the pricing of commodity. Application to beet sugar underlines pricer precision. Indeed, the percentage of accuracy between computed result and real world is 99,5%. Optimal premium is then deduced and gives the producer a useful bound for negotiating an offer by insurance companies to effectively protect its harvest. The application to beet production in French Oise department illustrates the reliability of present model with as low as 6% difference between predicted and real data. The model can be adapted to almost any agricultural field by changing state parameters and calibrating their associated coefficients.

Keywords: agriculture, production model, optimal price, meteorological factors, 3-factor model, parameter calibration, forward price

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Authors: Abeer Samy, Oliver C. Saavedra Valeriano, Abdelazim Negm

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The Blue Nile Basin is the most important tributary of the Nile River. Egypt and Sudan are almost dependent on water originated from the Blue Nile. This multi-dependency creates conflicts among the three countries Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia making the management of these conflicts as an international issue. Good assessment of the water resources of the Blue Nile is an important to help in managing such conflicts. Hydrological models are good tool for such assessment. This paper presents a critical review of the nature and variability of the climate and hydrology of the Blue Nile Basin as a first step of using hydrological modeling to assess the water resources of the Blue Nile. Many several attempts are done to develop basin-scale hydrological modeling on the Blue Nile. Lumped and semi distributed models used averages of meteorological inputs and watershed characteristics in hydrological simulation, to analyze runoff for flood control and water resource management. Distributed models include the temporal and spatial variability of catchment conditions and meteorological inputs to allow better representation of the hydrological process. The main challenge of all used models was to assess the water resources of the basin is the shortage of the data needed for models calibration and validation. It is recommended to use distributed model for their higher accuracy to cope with the great variability and complexity of the Blue Nile basin and to collect sufficient data to have more sophisticated and accurate hydrological modeling.

Keywords: Blue Nile Basin, climate change, hydrological modeling, watershed

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Authors: Clemens Bulitta, Sasan Sadrizadeh, Sebastian Buhl

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Introduction: Ventilation technology in operating theatres (OT)is internationally regulated by dif-ferent standards, which define basic specifications for technical equipment and many times also the necessary operating and performance parameters. This confronts the operators of healthcare facilities with the question of finding the best ventilation and air conditioning system for the OT in order to achieve the goal of a large and robust surgicalworkzone with appropriate air quality and climate for patient safety and occupational health. Additionally, energy consumption and the potential need for clothing that limits transmission of bacteria must be considered as well as the total life cycle cost. However, the evaluation methodology of ventilation systems regarding these matters are still a topic of discussion. To date, there are neither any uniform standardized specifications nor any common validation criteria established. Thus, this study aimed to review data in the literature and add ourown research results to compare and assess the performance of different ventilations systems regarding infection preventive effects, energy efficiency, and staff comfort. Methods: We have conducted a comprehensive literature review on OT ventilation-related topics to understand the strengths and limitations of different ventilation systems. Furthermore, data from experimental assessments on OT ventilation systems at the University of Amberg-Weidenin Germany were in-cluded to comparatively assess the performance of Laminar Airflow (LAF), Turbulent Mixing Air-flow(TMA), and Temperature-controlled Airflow (TcAF) with regards to patient and occupational safety as well as staff comfort including indoor climate.CFD simulations from the Royal Institute of Technology in Sweden (KTH) were also studied to visualize the differences between these three kinds of ventilation systems in terms of the size of the surgical workzone, resilience to obstacles in the airflow, and energy use. Results: A variety of ventilation concepts are in use in the OT today. Each has its advantages and disadvantages, and thus one may be better suited than another depend-ing on the built environment and clinical workflow. Moreover, the proper functioning of OT venti-lation is also affected by multiple external and internal interfering factors. Based on the available data TcAF and LAF seem to provide the greatest effects regarding infection control and minimizing airborne risks for surgical site infections without the need for very tight surgical clothing systems. Resilience to obstacles, staff comfort, and energy efficiency seem to be favourable with TcAF. Conclusion: Based on literature data in current publications and our studies at the Technical Uni-versity of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weidenand the Royal Institute of Technoclogy, LAF and TcAF are more suitable for minimizing the risk for surgical site infections leading to improved clin-ical outcomes. Nevertheless, regarding the best management of thermal loads, atmosphere, energy efficiency, and occupational safety, overall results and data suggest that TcAF systems could pro-vide the economically most efficient and clinically most effective solution under routine clinical conditions.

Keywords: ventilation systems, infection control, energy efficiency, operating theatre, airborne infection risks

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Authors: Daisy Owomugasho Ndikuno

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The paper explores the extent to which mindset change has been critical in the community rural development in Uganda. It is descriptive research with The Parish Development Model as a case study. The results show that rural community development is possible and its success largely depends on harnessing local resources and knowledge; leveraging education, empowerment and awareness; creating sustainable livelihoods and encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation; access to financial resources; and building collaborative networks and partnerships. In all these, the role of mindset change is critical. By instilling a positive, collaborative and innovative mindset, rural communities can overcome challenges and chat a path towards sustainable development.

Keywords: community, development, mindset, change

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Authors: Ebtissem Sassi, Abdellatif Benabdelhafid, Sami Hammami

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Congestion, pollution and space misuse are the major risks in the hinterland. Management of these risks is a major issue for all the actors intervening in territory management. A good mastery of these risks is based on the consideration of environmental and physical constraints since the implementation of a policy integrates simultaneously an efficient use, territorial resources, and financial resources which become increasingly rare. Yet, this balance can be difficult to establish simultaneously by all the actors. Indeed, every actor has often the tendency to favor these objectives in detriment to others. In this framework, we have fixed the objective of designing and achieving a model which will centralize multidisciplinary data and serve the analysis tool as well as a decision support tool. In this article, we will elaborate some methodological axes allowing the good management of the territory system through (i) determination of the structural factors of the decision support system, (ii) integration of methods tools favoring the territorial decisional process. Logistics territory geographic information system is a model dealing with this issue. The objective of this model is to facilitate the exchanges between the actors around a common question which was the research subject of human sciences researchers (geography, economy), nature sciences (ecology) as well as finding an optimal solution for simultaneous responses to all these objectives.

Keywords: complexity, territory, logistics, territory planning, conceptual model, GIS, MCA

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Authors: Gui Yewei, Du Yanxia, Xiao Guangming, Liu Lei, Wei Dong, Yang Xiaofeng

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A phase change material (PCM) is a substance which absorbs a large amount of energy when undergoing a change of solid-liquid phase. The good physical and chemical properties of C or SiC foam reveal the possibility of using them as a thermal conductivity enhancer for the PCM. C or SiC foam composite PCM has a high effective conductivity and becomes one of the most interesting thermal storage techniques due to its advantage of simplicity and reliability. The paper developed a numerical method to simulate the heat transfer of SiC and C foam composite PCM, a finite volume technique was used to discretize the heat diffusion equation while the phase change process was modeled using the equivalent specific heat method. The effects of the porosity were investigated based on the numerical method, and the effects of the geometric model of the microstructure on the equivalent thermal conductivity was studies.

Keywords: SiC foam, composite, phase change material, heat transfer

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Authors: Chloe E. Edwards, Yasaman Shahtaheri

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Risk management plays a fundamental role in project planning and delivery. The purpose of incorporating risk management into project management practices is to identify and address uncertainties related to key project-related activities. The uncertainties, known as risk events, can relate to project deliverables that are quantifiable and are often measured by impact to project schedule, cost, or environmental impact. Risk management should be incorporated as an iterative practice throughout the planning, execution, and commissioning phases of a project. This paper specifically examines how risk management contributes to effective project planning and delivery through a case study of a transportation project. This case study focused solely on impacts to project schedule regarding three milestones: readiness for delivery, readiness for testing and commissioning, and completion of the facility. The case study followed the ISO 31000: Risk Management – Guidelines. The key factors that are outlined by these guidelines include understanding the scope and context of the project, conducting a risk assessment including identification, analysis, and evaluation, and lastly, risk treatment through mitigation measures. This process requires continuous consultation with subject matter experts and monitoring to iteratively update the risks accordingly. The risk identification process led to a total of fourteen risks related to design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. The analysis involved running 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations through @RISK 8.0 Industrial software to determine potential milestone completion dates based on the project baseline schedule. These dates include the best case, most likely case, and worst case to provide an estimated delay for each milestone. Evaluation of these results provided insight into which risks were the highest contributors to the projected milestone completion dates. Based on the analysis results, the risk management team was able to provide recommendations for mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring. The risk management team also provided recommendations for managing the identified risks and project activities moving forward to meet the most likely or best-case milestone completion dates.

Keywords: construction management, monte carlo simulation, project delivery, risk assessment, transportation engineering

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Authors: Badriya Almutairi, Ashraf El-Hamalawi

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Wind energy technologies are considered to be among the most promising types of renewable energy sources due to the growing concerns over climate change and energy security. Kuwait is amongst the countries that began realising the consequences of climate change and the long-term economic and energy security situation, considering options when oil runs out. Added to this are the fluctuating oil prices, rapid increase in population, high electricity consumption and protection of the environment It began to make efforts in the direction of greener solutions for energy needs by looking for alternative forms of energy and assessing potential renewable energy resources, including wind and solar. The aim of this paper is to examine wind energy as an alternative renewable energy source in Kuwait, due to its availability and low cost, reducing the dependency on fossil fuels compared to other forms of renewable energy. This paper will present a life cycle assessment of onshore wind turbine systems in Kuwait, comprising 4 stages; goal and scope of the analysis, inventory analysis, impact assessment and interpretation of the results. It will also provide an assessment of potential renewable energy resources and technologies applied for power generation and the environmental benefits for Kuwait. An optimum location for a site (Shagaya) will be recommended for reasons such as high wind speeds, land availability and distance to the next grid connection, and be the focus of this study. The potential environmental impacts and resources used throughout the wind turbine system’s life-cycle are then analysed using a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The results show the total carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission for a turbine with steel pile foundations is greater than emissions from a turbine with concrete foundations by 18 %. The analysis also shows the average CO₂ emissions from electricity generated using crude oil is 645gCO₂/kWh and the carbon footprint per functional unit for a wind turbine ranges between 6.6 g/kWh to 10 g/kWh, an increase of 98%, thus providing cost and environmental benefits by creating a wind farm in Kuwait. Using a cost-benefit analysis, it was also found that the electricity produced from wind energy in Kuwait would cost 17.6fils/kWh (0.05834 $/kWh), which is less than the cost of electricity currently being produced using conventional methods at 22 fils/kW (0.07$/kWh), i.e., a reduction of 20%.

Keywords: CO₂ emissions, Kuwait, life cycle assessment, renewable energy, wind energy

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Authors: Syed Hammad Ali, Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Danial Hashmi, Richard Armstrong, Ahuti Shrestha, Iram Bano, Javed Hassan

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This paper presents the results of a semi-distributed modified positive degree-day model (MPDDM) for estimating snow and ice melt contributions to discharge from the glacierized Hunza River basin, Pakistan. The model uses daily temperature data, daily precipitation data, and positive degree day factors for snow and ice melt. The model is calibrated for the period 1995-2001 and validated for 2002-2013, and demonstrates close agreements between observed and simulated discharge with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.88, respectively. Furthermore, the Weather Research and Forecasting model projected temperature, and precipitation data from 2016-2050 are used for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and bias correction was done using a statistical approach for future discharge estimation. No drastic changes in future discharge are predicted for the emissions scenarios. The aggregate snow-ice melt contribution is 39% of total discharge in the period 1993-2013. Snow-ice melt contribution ranges from 35% to 63% during the high flow period (May to October), which constitutes 89% of annual discharge; in the low flow period (November to April) it ranges from 0.02% to 17%, which constitutes 11 % of the annual discharge. The snow-ice melt contribution to total discharge will increase gradually in the future and reach up to 45% in 2041-2050. From a sensitivity analysis, it is found that the combination of a 2°C temperature rise and 20% increase in precipitation shows a 10% increase in discharge. The study allows us to evaluate the impact of climate change in such basins and is also useful for the future prediction of discharge to define hydropower potential, inform other water resource management in the area, to understand future changes in snow-ice melt contribution to discharge, and offer a possible evaluation of future water quantity and availability.

Keywords: climate variability, future discharge projection, positive degree day, regional climate model, water resource management

Procedia PDF Downloads 282

Authors: Sung Duk Kim, Kwan U. Kim, Jin Sim, Ryong Jin Jang

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The phenomenon of seasonal variations in the Earth’s rotation velocity was discovered in the 1930s when a crystal clock was developed and analyzed in a quantitative way for the first time between 1955 and 1968 when observation data of the seasonal variations was analyzed by an atomic clock. According to the previous investigation, atmospheric circulation is supposed to be a factor affecting the seasonal variations in the Earth’s rotation velocity in many cases, but the problem has not been solved yet. In order to solve the problem, it is necessary to apply dynamics to consider the Earth’s spatial motion, rotation, and change of shape of the Earth (movement of materials in and out of the Earth and change of the Earth’s figure) at the same time and in interrelation to the accuracy of post-Newtonian approximation regarding the Earth body as a system of mass points because the stability of the Earth’s rotation angular velocity is in the range of 10⁻⁸~10⁻⁹. For it, the equation was derived, which can consider the 3 kinds of motion above mentioned at the same time by taking the effect of the resultant external force on the Earth’s rotation into account in a relativistic way to the accuracy of post-Newtonian approximation. Therefore, the equation has been solved to obtain the theoretical values of periodic change in the Earth’s rotation velocity, and they have been compared with the astronomical observation data so to reveal the cause for the periodic change in the Earth’s rotation velocity.

Keywords: Earth rotation, moment function, periodic change, seasonal variation, relativistic change

Procedia PDF Downloads 46

Authors: Abdmohammad Mousavi, Mohsen Shams, Mehdi Akbartabar Toori, Ali Mousavizadeh, Mohammad Ali Morowatisharifabad

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Introduction: The effectiveness of Transtheoretical Model constructs on dietary behavior change has been subject to questions by some studies. The objective of this study was to determine the relationship between self–efficacy and decisional balance as mediator variables and transfer obese and overweight women among the stages of behavior change of calorie balanced dietary intake. Method: In this cross-sectional study, 448 obese and overweight 20-44 years old women were selected from three health centers in Yasuj, a city in south west of Iran. Anthropometric data were measured using standard techniques. Demographic, stages of change, self-efficacy and decisional balance data were collected by questionnaires and analyzed using One–Way ANOVA and Generalized Linear Models tests. Results: Demographic and anthropometric variables were not different significantly in different stages of change related to calorie intake except the pre-high school level of education (P=.047, OR=502, 95% CI= .255 ~ .990). Mean scores of Self-efficacy ( F(4.425)= 27.09, P= .000), decisional balance (F(4.394), P= .004), and pros (F(4.430)=5.33, P=000) were different significantly in five stages of change. However, the cons did not show a significant change in this regard (F(4.400)=1.83, P=.123). Discussion: Women movement through the stages of changes for calorie intake behavior can be predicted by self efficacy, decisional balance and pros.

Keywords: transtheoretical model, stages of change, self efficacy, decisional balance, calorie intake, women

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Authors: Palingba Aimé Marie Doilkom, Mahamadou Koïta, Jean-michel Vouillamoz, Angelbert Biaou

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Most African populations rely on groundwater in rural areas for their consumption. Indeed, in the face of climate change and strong demographic growth, groundwater, particularly in the basement, is increasingly in demand. The question of the sustainability of water resources in this type of environment is therefore becoming a major issue. Groundwater recharge can be natural or artificial. Unlike natural recharge, which often results from the natural infiltration of surface water (e.g. a share of rainfall), artificial recharge consists of causing water infiltration through appropriate developments to artificially replenish the water stock of an aquifer. Artificial recharge is, therefore, one of the measures that can be implemented to secure water supply, combat the effects of climate change, and, more generally, contribute to improving the quantitative status of groundwater bodies. It is in this context that the present research is conducted with the aim of developing artificial recharge in order to contribute to the sustainability of basement aquifers in a context of climatic variability and constantly increasing water needs of populations. In order to achieve the expected results, it is therefore important to determine the characteristics of the infiltration basins and to identify the areas suitable for their implementation. The geometry of the aquifer was reproduced, and the hydraulic properties of the aquifer were collected and characterized, including boundary conditions, hydraulic conductivity, effective porosity, recharge, Van Genuchten parameters, and saturation indices. The aquifer of the Sanon experimental site is made up of three layers, namely the saprolite, the fissured horizon, and the healthy basement. Indeed, the saprolite and the fissured medium were considered for the simulations. The first results with FEFLOW model show that the water table reacts continuously for the first 100 days before stabilizing. The hydraulic charge increases by an average of 1 m. The further away from the basin, the less the water table reacts. However, if a variable hydraulic head is imposed on the basins, it can be seen that the response of the water table is not uniform over time. The lower the basin hydraulic head, the less it affects the water table. These simulations must be continued by improving the characteristics of the basins in order to obtain the appropriate characteristics for a good recharge.

Keywords: basement area, FEFLOW, infiltration basin, MAR

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Authors: Mohsen Ehsanpour, Maryam Ehsanpour, ‎Majid Afkhami, Fatemeh Afkhami ‎

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Heavy metals are increasingly being released into natural waters from geological and anthropogenic sources. The distribution of several heavy metals (Cd, Pb) was investigated in muscle, liver in six different fish species seasonally collected in Persian Gulf (autumn 2009-summer 2010). The concentrations of all metals were lower in flesh than those recorded in liver due to their physiological roles. The THQ index for fish was calculated. Estimation of target hazard quotients calculations for the contaminated fish consumption was calculated to evaluate the effect of pollution on health. Total metal THQs values (Pb and Cd) for adults were 0.05 and 0.04 in Bushehr and Bandar-Genaveh, respectively, and for children they were 0.08 and 0.05 in Bandar-Abbas and Bandar-Lengeh, respectively.

Keywords: Persian Gulf, heavy metals, health risks, THQ index

Procedia PDF Downloads 694

Authors: B. Rusyidi, D. Mariana

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Although reforms in trafficking regulations have taken place since 2007, Indonesia is still struggling to fight child trafficking. This study aimed to identify and assess risk factors and vulnerabilities in the life of trafficked children prior to, during, and after being trafficked in order to inform the child protection system and its policies. The study was qualitative and utilized in-depth interviews to collect data. Data were gathered in 2014 and 2015 from 15 trafficked and sexually exploited girls aged 14 to 17 years originating from West Java. Social workers, safe home personnel and parents were also included as informants. Data analysis was guided by the ecological perspective and theme analyses. The study found that risks and vulnerabilities of the victims were associated with conditions at various levels of the environment. At the micro level, risk factors and vulnerabilities included young age, family conflict/violence, involvement with the “wrong” circle of friends/peers, family poverty, lack of social and economic support for the victim’s family, and psychological damages due to trafficking experiences. At the mezzo level, the lack of structured activities after school, economic inequality, stigma towards victims, lack of services for victims, and minimum public education on human trafficking were among the community hazards that increased the vulnerability and risks. Gender inequality, consumerism, the view of children as assets, corruption, weak law enforcement, the lack of institutional support, and community-wide ignorance regarding trafficking were found as factors that increased risks and vulnerabilities at the macro level. The findings from the study underline the necessity to reduce risk factors and promote protective factors at the individual, family, community and societal levels. Shifting the current focus from tertiary to primary/prevention policies and improving institutional efforts are pressing needs in the context of reducing child trafficking in Indonesia. The roles of human service providers including social work also should be promoted.

Keywords: child trafficking, child sexual exploitation, ecological perspective, risks and vulnerabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Devanandan Govender

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Curriculum design and development in higher education is a complex and challenging process. Amongst others, the extent to which higher education curriculum responds to a country's imperatives, industry requirements, and societal demands are some important considerations. Added to this is the whole notion of sustainable development, climate change and in the South African context the issue of ‘Africanising the curriculum’ is also significant. In this paper, the author describes and analyses the various challenges related to curriculum transformation, design and development within an ODL context and how we at Unisa engage and address curriculum transformation in mainstream curriculum design and development both at course design level and programme/ qualification level.

Keywords: curriculum transformation, curriculum creep, curriculum drift, curriculum mapping

Procedia PDF Downloads 363