Search results for: predictive distribution

Authors: JingWei Yu, Hong Yang Yu

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At present, the increasingly serious air pollution in various cities of China has made people pay more attention to the air quality index(hereinafter referred to as AQI) of their living areas. To face this situation, it is of great significance to predict air pollution in heavily polluted areas. In this paper, based on the time series model of LSTM, a spatiotemporal prediction model of PM2.5 concentration in Mianyang, Sichuan Province, is established. The model fully considers the temporal variability and spatial distribution characteristics of PM2.5 concentration. The spatial correlation of air quality at different locations is based on the Air quality status of other nearby monitoring stations, including AQI and meteorological data to predict the air quality of a monitoring station. The experimental results show that the method has good prediction accuracy that the fitting degree with the actual measured data reaches more than 0.7, which can be applied to the modeling and prediction of the spatial and temporal distribution of regional PM2.5 concentration.

Keywords: LSTM, PM2.5, neural networks, spatio-temporal prediction

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Authors: Rachel C. F. Sun

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This study examined the predictive effects of moral competence, prosocial norms and positive behavior recognition on school misbehavior among Chinese junior secondary school students. Results of multiple regression analysis showed that students were more likely to misbehave in school when they had lower levels of moral competence and prosocial norms, and when they perceived their positive behavior being less likely recognized. Practical implications were discussed on how to guide students to make the right choices to behave appropriately in school. Implications for future research were also discussed.

Keywords: moral competence, positive behavior recognition, prosocial norms, school misbehavior

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Authors: Shiyi He, Yan Xia, Xiaoping Ouyang, Liang Chen, Zhongbing Zhang, Jinlu Ruan

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As the key system of the spacecraft, various propelling system have been developing rapidly, including ion thrust, laser thrust, solar sail and other micro-thrusters. However, there still are some shortages in these systems. The ion thruster requires the high-voltage or magnetic field to accelerate, resulting in extra system, heavy quantity and large volume. The laser thrust now is mostly ground-based and providing pulse thrust, restraint by the station distribution and the capacity of laser. The thrust direction of solar sail is limited to its relative position with the Sun, so it is hard to propel toward the Sun or adjust in the shadow.In this paper, a novel nuclear thruster based on alpha decay and spontaneous fission is proposed and the principle of this radiation-thrust with alpha particle has been expounded. Radioactive materials with different released energy, such as 210Po with 5.4MeV and 238Pu with 5.29MeV, attached to a metal film will provides various thrust among 0.02-5uN/cm2. With this repulsive force, radiation is able to be a power source. With the advantages of low system quantity, high accuracy and long active time, the radiation thrust is promising in the field of space debris removal, orbit control of nano-satellite array and deep space exploration. To do further study, a formula lead to the amplitude and direction of thrust by the released energy and decay coefficient is set up. With the initial formula, the alpha radiation elements with the half life period longer than a hundred days are calculated and listed. As the alpha particles emit continuously, the residual charge in metal film grows and affects the emitting energy distribution of alpha particles. With the residual charge or extra electromagnetic field, the emitting of alpha particles performs differently and is analyzed in this paper. Furthermore, three more complex situations are discussed. Radiation element generating alpha particles with several energies in different intensity, mixture of various radiation elements, and cascaded alpha decay are studied respectively. In combined way, it is more efficient and flexible to adjust the thrust amplitude. The propelling model of the spontaneous fission is similar with the one of alpha decay, which has a more complex angular distribution. A new quasi-sphere space propelling system based on the radiation-thrust has been introduced, as well as the collecting and processing system of excess charge and reaction heat. The energy and spatial angular distribution of emitting alpha particles on unit area and certain propelling system have been studied. As the alpha particles are easily losing energy and self-absorb, the distribution is not the simple stacking of each nuclide. With the change of the amplitude and angel of radiation-thrust, orbital variation strategy on space debris removal is shown and optimized.

Keywords: alpha decay, angular distribution, emitting energy, orbital variation, radiation-thruster

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Authors: Hao-Hsi Tseng, Hsin-Yun Lee

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The Most Advantageous Tender (MAT) has been criticized for its susceptibility to dictatorial situations and for its processing of same score, same rank issues. This study applies the four criteria from Arrow's Impossibility Theorem to construct a mechanism for revealing illegitimate scores in scoring methods. While commonly be used to improve on problems resulting from extreme scores, ranking methods hide significant defects, adversely affecting selection fairness. To address these shortcomings, this study relies mainly on the overall evaluated score method, using standardized scores plus normal cumulative distribution function conversion to calculate the evaluation of vender preference. This allows for free score evaluations, which reduces the influence of dictatorial behavior and avoiding same score, same rank issues. Large-scale simulations confirm that this method outperforms currently used methods using the Impossibility Theorem.

Keywords: Arrow’s impossibility theorem, cumulative normal distribution function, most advantageous tender, scoring method

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Authors: Mayada Al Meghari

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Recently, grid middlewares have provided large integrated use of network resources as the shared data and the CPU to become a virtual supercomputer. In this work, we present the design and implementation of the middleware for Data Warehouse Signature, DWS Framework. The aim of using the middleware in our DWS framework is to achieve the high performance by the parallel computing. This middleware is developed on Alchemi.Net framework to increase the security among the network nodes through the authentication and group-key distribution model. This model achieves the key security and prevents any intermediate attacks in the middleware. This paper presents the flow process structures of the middleware design. In addition, the paper ensures the implementation of security for DWS middleware enhancement with the authentication and group-key distribution model. Finally, from the analysis of other middleware approaches, the developed middleware of DWS framework is the optimal solution of a complete covering of security issues.

Keywords: middleware, parallel computing, data warehouse, security, group-key, high performance

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Authors: Josef Sepitka, Petr Vlcak, Tomas Horazdovsky, Vratislav Perina

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An ion implantation technique was used for designing the surface area of a titanium alloy and for irradiation-enhanced hardening of the surface. The Ti6Al4V alloy was treated by nitrogen ion implantation at fluences of 2·10¹⁷ and 4·10¹⁷ cm^-2 and at ion energy 90 keV. The depth distribution of the nitrogen was investigated by Rutherford Backscattering Spectroscopy. The gradient of mechanical properties was investigated by nanoindentation. The continuous measurement mode was used to obtain depth profiles of the indentation hardness and the reduced storage modulus of the modified surface area. The reduced storage modulus and the hardness increase with increasing fluence. Increased fluence shifts the peak of the mechanical properties as well as the peak of nitrogen concentration towards to the surface. This effect suggests a direct relationship between mechanical properties and nitrogen distribution.

Keywords: nitrogen ion implantation, titanium-based nanolayer, storage modulus, hardness, microstructure

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Authors: Zakarya Kourdi, Mohammed Khaouani, Benyounes Bouazza, Ahlam Guen-Bouazza, Amine Boursali

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In this paper, we have evaluated the thermal effect for high electron mobility transistors (HEMTs) heterostructure InAlN/GaN with a gate length 30nm high-performance. It also shows the analysis and simulated these devices, and how can be used in different application. The simulator Tcad-Silvaco software has used for predictive results good for the DC, AC and RF characteristic, Devices offered max drain current 0.67A; transconductance is 720 mS/mm the unilateral power gain of 180 dB. A cutoff frequency of 385 GHz, and max frequency 810 GHz These results confirm the feasibility of using HEMTs with InAlN/GaN in high power amplifiers, as well as thermal places.

Keywords: HEMT, Thermal Effect, Silvaco, InAlN/GaN

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Authors: Jalil ur Rehman, Ramesh C. Tailor, Muhammad Isa Khan, Jahnzeeb Ashraf, Muhammad Afzal, Geofferry S. Ibbott

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Purpose: The purpose of this analysis was to investigate dose distribution of different techniques (3D-CRT, IMRT and VMAT) of head and neck cancer using 3-dimensional dosimeter called PRESAGETM Dosimeter. Materials and Methods: Computer tomography (CT) scans of radiological physics center (RPC) head and neck anthropomorphic phantom with both RPC standard insert and PRESAGETM insert were acquired separated with Philipp’s CT scanner and both CT scans were exported via DICOM to the Pinnacle version 9.4 treatment planning system (TPS). Each plan was delivered twice to the RPC phantom first containing the RPC standard insert having TLD and film dosimeters and then again containing the Presage insert having 3-D dosimeter (PRESAGETM) by using a Varian True Beam linear accelerator. After irradiation, the standard insert including point dose measurements (TLD) and planar Gafchromic® EBT film measurement were read using RPC standard procedure. The 3D dose distribution from PRESAGETM was read out with the Duke Midsized optical scanner dedicated to RPC (DMOS-RPC). Dose volume histogram (DVH), mean and maximal doses for organs at risk were calculated and compared among each head and neck technique. The prescription dose was same for all head and neck radiotherapy techniques which was 6.60 Gy/friction. Beam profile comparison and gamma analysis were used to quantify agreements among film measurement, PRESAGETM measurement and calculated dose distribution. Quality assurances of all plans were performed by using ArcCHECK method. Results: VMAT delivered the lowest mean and maximum doses to organ at risk (spinal cord, parotid) than IMRT and 3DCRT. Such dose distribution was verified by absolute dose distribution using thermoluminescent dosimeter (TLD) system. The central axial, sagittal and coronal planes were evaluated using 2D gamma map criteria(± 5%/3 mm) and results were 99.82% (axial), 99.78% (sagital), 98.38% (coronal) for VMAT plan and found the agreement between PRESAGE and pinnacle was better than IMRT and 3D-CRT plan excludes a 7 mm rim at the edge of the dosimeter. Profile showed good agreement for all plans between film, PRESAGE and pinnacle and 3D gamma was performed for PTV and OARs, VMAT and 3DCRT endow with better agreement than IMRT. Conclusion: VMAT delivered lowered mean and maximal doses to organs at risk and better PTV coverage during head and neck radiotherapy. TLD, EBT film and PRESAGETM dosimeters suggest that VMAT was better for the treatment of head and neck cancer than IMRT and 3D-CRT.

Keywords: RPC, 3DCRT, IMRT, VMAT, EBT2 film, TLD, PRESAGETM

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Authors: S. Gao, S. Srirattayawong

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In this study, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model has been developed for studying the effect of surface roughness profile on the EHL problem. The cylinders contact geometry, meshing and calculation of the conservation of mass and momentum equations are carried out by using the commercial software packages ICEMCFD and ANSYS Fluent. The user defined functions (UDFs) for density, viscosity and elastic deformation of the cylinders as the functions of pressure and temperature have been defined for the CFD model. Three different surface roughness profiles are created and incorporated into the CFD model. It is found that the developed CFD model can predict the characteristics of fluid flow and heat transfer in the EHL problem, including the leading parameters such as the pressure distribution, minimal film thickness, viscosity, and density changes. The obtained results show that the pressure profile at the center of the contact area directly relates to the roughness amplitude. The rough surface with kurtosis value over 3 influences the fluctuated shape of pressure distribution higher than other cases.

Keywords: CFD, EHL, kurtosis, surface roughness

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Authors: Rachel Hetherington, Chad Deering, Ann Maclean, Snehamoy Chatterjee

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The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a soil survey and subsequent mineralogical and geochemical analyses of over 4800 samples taken across the contiguous United States between the years 2007 and 2013. At each location, samples were taken from the top 5 cm, the A-horizon, and the C-horizon. Many studies have looked at the correlation between the mineralogical and geochemical content of soils and influencing factors such as parent lithology, climate, soil type, and age, but it seems little has been done in relation to quantifying and assessing the correlation between elements in the soil on a national scale. GIS was used for the mapping and multivariate interpolation of over 40 major and trace elements for surficial soils (0-5 cm depth). Qualitative analysis of the spatial distribution across the U.S. shows distinct patterns amongst elements both within the same periodic groups and within different periodic groups, and therefore with different behavioural characteristics. Results show the emergence of 4 main patterns of high concentration areas: vertically along the west coast, a C-shape formed through the states around Utah and northern Arizona, a V-shape through the Midwest and connecting to the Appalachians, and along the Appalachians. The Band Collection Statistics tool in GIS was used to quantitatively analyse the geochemical raster datasets and calculate a correlation matrix. Patterns emerged, which were not identified in qualitative analysis, many of which are also amongst elements with very different characteristics. Preliminary results show 41 element pairings with a strong positive correlation ( ≥ 0.75). Both qualitative and quantitative analyses on this scale could increase knowledge on the relationships between element distribution and behaviour in surficial soils of the U.S.

Keywords: correlation matrix, geochemical analyses, spatial distribution of elements, surficial soils

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Authors: Jihad S. Daba, J. P. Dubois

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Understanding the statistics of non-isotropic scattering multipath channels that fade randomly with respect to time, frequency, and space in a mobile environment is very crucial for the accurate detection of received signals in wireless and cellular communication systems. In this paper, we derive stochastic models for the probability density function (PDF) of the shift in the carrier frequency caused by the Doppler Effect on the received illuminating signal in the presence of a dominant line of sight. Our derivation is based on a generalized Clarke’s and a two-wave partially developed scattering models, where the statistical distribution of the frequency shift is shown to be consistent with the power spectral density of the Doppler shifted signal.

Keywords: Doppler shift, filtered Poisson process, generalized Clark’s model, non-isotropic scattering, partially developed scattering, Rician distribution

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Authors: David Hasurungan

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This paper objective is to assess the power distribution reliability improvement by retrofitting obsolete vacuum contactor. The case study in Badak Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plant is presented in this paper. To support plant operational, Badak LNG is equipped with 4.16 kV switchgear for supplying the storage and loading facilities, utilities facilities, and train facilities. However, there is a problem in two switch gears of sixteen switch gears. The problem is the obsolescence issue in its vacuum contactor. Not only that, but the same switchgear also has suffered from electrical fault due to contact fingering misalignment. In order to improve the reliability in switchgear, the vacuum contactor retrofit project is done. The retrofit will introduce new vacuum contactor design. The comparison between existing design and the new design is presented in this paper. Meanwhile, The reliability assessment and calculation are performed using software Reliasoft 7.

Keywords: reliability, obsolescence, retrofit, vacuum contactor

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Authors: Matthew Holland, Jason Everett, Martin Cox, Iain Suthers

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High spatial-resolution distribution of planktivorous reef fish can reveal behavioural adaptations to optimise the balance between feeding success and predator avoidance. We used a multi-beam echosounder to record bathymetry and the three-dimensional distribution of fish schools associated with natural and artificial reefs. We utilised generalised linear models to assess the distribution, orientation, and aggregation of fish schools relative to the structure, vertical relief, and currents. At artificial reefs, fish schooled more closely to the structure and demonstrated a preference for the windward side, particularly when exposed to strong currents. Similarly, at natural reefs fish demonstrated a preference for windward aspects of bathymetry, particularly when associated with high vertical relief. Our findings suggest that under conditions with stronger current velocity, fish can exercise their preference to remain close to structure for predator avoidance, while still receiving an adequate supply of zooplankton delivered by the current. Similarly, when current velocity is low, fish tend to disperse for better access to zooplankton. As artificial reefs are generally deployed with the goal of creating productivity rather than simply attracting fish from elsewhere, we advise that future artificial reefs be designed as semi-linear arrays perpendicular to the prevailing current, with multiple tall towers. This will facilitate the conversion of dispersed zooplankton into energy for higher trophic levels, enhancing reef productivity and fisheries.

Keywords: artificial reef, current, forage fish, multi-beam, planktivorous fish, reef fish, schooling

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Authors: Jonghyuk Yoon, Hyoungwoon Song, Youngbae Kim, Eunju Kim

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Recently, with the rapid growth of semiconductor industry, lots of interests have been focused on after treatment system that remove the polluted gas produced from semiconductor manufacturing process, and a wet scrubber is the one of the widely used system. When it comes to mechanism of removing the gas, the polluted gas is removed firstly by chemical reaction in a reactor part. After that, the polluted gas stream is brought into contact with the scrubbing liquid, by spraying it with the liquid. Effective design of the reactor part inside the wet scrubber is highly important since removal performance of the polluted gas in the reactor plays an important role in overall performance and stability. In the present study, a CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) analysis was performed to figure out the thermal and flow characteristics inside unit a reactor of wet scrubber. In order to verify the numerical result, temperature distribution of the numerical result at various monitoring points was compared to the experimental result. The average error rates (12~15%) between them was shown and the numerical result of temperature distribution was in good agreement with the experimental data. By using validated numerical method, the effect of the reactor geometry on heat transfer rate was also taken into consideration. Uniformity of temperature distribution was improved about 15%. Overall, the result of present study could be useful information to identify the fluid behavior and thermal performance for various scrubber systems. This project is supported by the ‘R&D Center for the reduction of Non-CO₂ Greenhouse gases (RE201706054)’ funded by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as the Global Top Environment R&D Program.

Keywords: semiconductor, polluted gas, CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics), wet scrubber, reactor

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Authors: Suparman

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Piecewise linear regression models are very flexible models for modeling the data. If the piecewise linear regression models are matched against the data, then the parameters are generally not known. This paper studies the problem of parameter estimation of piecewise linear regression models. The method used to estimate the parameters of picewise linear regression models is Bayesian method. But the Bayes estimator can not be found analytically. To overcome these problems, the reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of the parameters of picewise linear regression models. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of picewise linear regression models.

Keywords: regression, piecewise, Bayesian, reversible Jump MCMC

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Authors: Rahim Sarvar, Bahram Azadbakht, Samira Safaee

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The leading goal of all planning is to attain sustainable development, regional balance, suitable distribution of activities, and maximum use of environmental capabilities in the process of development of regions. Intensive concentration of population and activities in one or some limited geographical locality is of main characteristics of most developing countries, especially Iran. Not considering the long-term programs and relying on temporary and superficial plans by people in charge of decision-making to attain their own objectives causes obstacles, resulting in unbalance development. The basic reason for these problems is to establish the development planning while economic aspects are merely considered and any attentions are not paid to social and regional feedbacks, what have been ending up to social and economic inequality, unbalanced distribution of development among the regions as well. In addition to study of special planning and structure of the county of Malekan, this research tries to achieve some other aims, i.e. recognition and introduction of approaches in order to utilize resources optimally, to distribute the population, activities, and facilities in optimum fashion, and to investigate and identify the spatial development potentials of the County. Based on documentary, descriptive, analytical, and field studies, this research employs maps to analyze the data, investigates the variables, and applies SPSS, Auto CAD, and Arc View software. The results show that the natural factors have a significant influence on spatial layout of settlements; distribution of facilities and functions are not equal among the rural districts of the county; and there is a spatial equivalence in the region area between population and number of settlements.

Keywords: development, entropy index, Malekan City, planning, regional equilibrium

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Authors: Nkiru I. Ibeakuzie, Paul D. J. Watson, John F. Pescatore

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In roadway construction, the cost of soil-cement stabilization per unit area is significantly influenced by the binder content, hence the need to optimise cement usage. This research work will characterize the influence of soil fractal geometry on properties of cement-stabilized soil, and strive to determine a correlation between mechanical proprieties of cement-stabilized soil and the mass fractal dimension Dₘ indicated by particle size distribution (PSD) of aggregate mixtures. Since strength development in cemented soil relies not only on cement content but also on soil PSD, this study will investigate the possibility of reducing cement content by changing the PSD of soil, without compromising on strength, reduced permeability, and compressibility. A series of soil aggregate mixes will be prepared in the laboratory. The mass fractal dimension Dₘ of each mix will be determined from sieve analysis data prior to stabilization with cement. Stabilized soil samples will be tested for strength, permeability, and compressibility.

Keywords: fractal dimension, particle size distribution, cement stabilization, cement content

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Authors: T. S. Yang, J. H. Liang

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This study applies the finite element method (FEM) to predict maximum forging load, effective stress distribution, effective strain distribution, workpiece temperature temperature in spiral bevel gear forging of AISI 1015. Maximum forging load, effective stress, effective strain, workpiece temperature are determined for different process parameters, such as modules, number of teeth, helical angle and workpiece temperature of the spiral bevel gear hot forging, using the FEM. Finally, the prediction of the power requirement for the spiral bevel gear hot forging of AISI 1015 is determined.

Keywords: spiral bevel gear, hot forging, finite element method

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Authors: Abdullah M. Alzahrani

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Our physiopathological assumption is that u-PA, t-PA, and PAI-1 are released by calcified aortic valves and play a role in the calcification of these valves. Sixty-five calcified aortic valves were collected from patients suffering from aortic stenosis. Each valve was incubated for 24 hours in culture medium. The supernatants were used to measure u-PA, t-PA, and PAI-1 concentrations; the valve calcification was evaluated using biphotonic absorptiometry. Aortic stenosis valves expressed normal plasminogen activators concentrations and overexpressed PAI-1 (u-PA, t-PA, and PAI-1 mean concentrations were, resp., 1.69 ng/mL ± 0.80, 2.76 ng/mL ± 1.33, and 53.27 ng/mL ± 36.39). There was no correlation between u-PA and PAI-1 (r = 0.3) but t-PA and PAI-1 were strongly correlated with each other (r = 0.6). Over expression of PAI-1 was proportional to the calcium content of theAS valves. Our results demonstrate a consistent increase of PAI-1 proportional to the calcification. The over expression of PAI-1 may be useful as a predictive indicator in patients with aortic stenosis.

Keywords: aortic valve, PAI-1, tPA gene, uPA gene

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Authors: Hakim S. Sultan Aljibori

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An experimental procedure is developed to study the performance of composite thin wall cylinders subjected to internal pressure loading for investigations of stress distribution through the composite cylinders wall. Three types of fibers were used in this study are; woven roving glass fiber/epoxy, hybrid fiber/epoxy, and Kevlar fiber/epoxy composite specimens were fabricated and tested. All of these specimens subjected to uniformed pressure load using the hydraulic pump. Axial stress is identified, and values were found after collecting all the results. Comparison between the deferent types of specimens was done. Thus, the present investigation concludes the efficient and effective composite cylinder experimentally and provides a considerable advantage for using woven roving fibers in pressure vessels applications.

Keywords: stress distribution, composite material, internal pressure, glass fiber, hybrid fiber

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Authors: M. E. Hammond, R. Pokorny

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Not much research has gone into the dynamics of natural regeneration of trees species in tropical forest regions. This study seeks to investigate the impact of gap sizes and light distribution in forest floors on the regeneration of Celtis mildbraedii (CEM), Nesogordonia papaverine (NES) and Terminalia superba (TES). These are selected economically important tree species with different shade tolerance attributes. The spatial distribution patterns and the potential regeneration competition index (RCI) among species using height to diameter ratio (HDR) have been assessed. Gap sizes ranging between 287 – 971 m² were selected at the Bia Tano forest reserve, a tropical moist semi-deciduous forest in Ghana. Four (4) transects in the cardinal directions were constructed from the center of each gap. Along each transect, ten 1 m² sampling zones at 2 m spacing were established. Then, three gap microsites (labeled ecozones I, II, III) were delineated within these sampling zones based on the varying temporal light distribution on the forest floor. Data on height (H), root collar diameter (RCD) and regeneration census were gathered from each of the ten sampling zones. CEM and NES seedlings (≤ 50 cm) and saplings (≥ 51 cm) were present in all ecozones of the large gaps. Seedlings of TES were observed in all ecozones of large and small gaps. Regression analysis showed a significant negative linear relationship between independent RCD and H growth variables on dependent HDR index in ecozones II and III of both large and small gaps. There was a correlation between RCD and H in both large and small gaps. A strong regeneration competition was observed among species in ecozone II in large (df 2, F=3.6, p=0.035) and small (df 2, F=17.9, p=0.000) gaps. These results contribute to the understanding of the natural regeneration of different species with regards to light regimes in forest floors.

Keywords: Celtis mildbraedii, ecozones, gaps, Nesogordonia papaverifera, regeneration, Terminalia superba

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Authors: Rebeca V. Tholen, Elaine Bundy

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Background: Liver transplantation (LT) is considered the only curative treatment for end-stage liver disease Background: Liver transplantation (LT) is considered the only curative treatment for end-stage liver disease (ESLD). The effects of alcoholism can cause irreversible liver damage, cirrhosis and subsequent liver failure. Alcohol relapse after transplant occurs in 20-50% of patients and increases the risk for recurrent cirrhosis, organ rejection, and graft failure. Alcohol relapse after transplant has been identified as a problem among liver transplant recipients at a large urban academic transplant center in the United States. Transplantation will reverse the complications of ESLD, but it does not treat underlying alcoholism or reduce the risk of relapse after transplant. The purpose of this quality improvement project is to implement and evaluate the effectiveness of a High-Risk Alcoholism Relapse (HRAR) Scale to screen and identify patients at high-risk for alcohol relapse after receiving an LT. Methods: The HRAR Scale is a predictive tool designed to determine the severity of alcoholism and risk of relapse after transplant. The scale consists of three variables identified as having the highest predictive power for early relapse including, daily number of drinks, history of previous inpatient treatment for alcoholism, and the number of years of heavy drinking. All adult liver transplant recipients at a large urban transplant center were screened with the HRAR Scale prior to hospital discharge. A zero to two ordinal score is ranked for each variable, and the total score ranges from zero to six. High-risk scores are between three to six. Results: Descriptive statistics revealed 25 patients were newly transplanted and discharged from the hospital during an 8-week period. 40% of patients (n=10) were identified as being high-risk for relapse and 60% low-risk (n=15). The daily number of drinks were determined by alcohol content (1 drink = 15g of ethanol) and number of drinks per day. 60% of patients reported drinking 9-17 drinks per day, and 40% reported ≤ 9 drinks. 50% of high-risk patients reported drinking ≥ 25 years, 40% for 11-25 years, and 10% ≤ 11 years. For number of inpatient treatments for alcoholism, 50% received inpatient treatment one time, 20% ≥ 1, and 30% reported never receiving inpatient treatment. Findings reveal the importance and value of a validated screening tool as a more efficient method than other screening methods alone. Integration of a structured clinical tool will help guide the drinking history portion of the psychosocial assessment. Targeted interventions can be implemented for all high-risk patients. Conclusions: Our findings validate the effectiveness of utilizing the HRAR scale to screen and identify patients who are a high-risk for alcohol relapse post-LT. Recommendations to help maintain post-transplant sobriety include starting a transplant support group within the organization for all high-risk patients. (ESLD). The effects of alcoholism can cause irreversible liver damage, cirrhosis and subsequent liver failure. Alcohol relapse after transplant occurs in 20-50% of patients, and increases the risk for recurrent cirrhosis, organ rejection, and graft failure. Alcohol relapse after transplant has been identified as a problem among liver transplant recipients at a large urban academic transplant center in the United States. Transplantation will reverse the complications of ESLD, but it does not treat underlying alcoholism or reduce the risk of relapse after transplant. The purpose of this quality improvement project is to implement and evaluate the effectiveness of a High-Risk Alcoholism Relapse (HRAR) Scale to screen and identify patients at high-risk for alcohol relapse after receiving a LT. Methods: The HRAR Scale is a predictive tool designed to determine severity of alcoholism and risk of relapse after transplant. The scale consists of three variables identified as having the highest predictive power for early relapse including, daily number of drinks, history of previous inpatient treatment for alcoholism, and the number of years of heavy drinking. All adult liver transplant recipients at a large urban transplant center were screened with the HRAR Scale prior to hospital discharge. A zero to two ordinal score is ranked for each variable, and the total score ranges from zero to six. High-risk scores are between three to six. Results: Descriptive statistics revealed 25 patients were newly transplanted and discharged from the hospital during an 8-week period. 40% of patients (n=10) were identified as being high-risk for relapse and 60% low-risk (n=15). The daily number of drinks were determined by alcohol content (1 drink = 15g of ethanol) and number of drinks per day. 60% of patients reported drinking 9-17 drinks per day, and 40% reported ≤ 9 drinks. 50% of high-risk patients reported drinking ≥ 25 years, 40% for 11-25 years, and 10% ≤ 11 years. For number of inpatient treatments for alcoholism, 50% received inpatient treatment one time, 20% ≥ 1, and 30% reported never receiving inpatient treatment. Findings reveal the importance and value of a validated screening tool as a more efficient method than other screening methods alone. Integration of a structured clinical tool will help guide the drinking history portion of the psychosocial assessment. Targeted interventions can be implemented for all high-risk patients. Conclusions: Our findings validate the effectiveness of utilizing the HRAR scale to screen and identify patients who are a high-risk for alcohol relapse post-LT. Recommendations to help maintain post-transplant sobriety include starting a transplant support group within the organization for all high-risk patients.

Keywords: alcoholism, liver transplant, quality improvement, substance abuse

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Ebrahim Akbarzadeh, Josep A. Picas Barrachina, Maite Baile Puig

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This study focuses on a novel method for dispersion and distribution of reinforcement under high intensive shear stress to produce metal composites. The polyacrylonitrile (PAN)-based short carbon fiber (Csf) and Nextel 610 alumina fiber were dispersed under high intensive shearing at mushy zone in semi-solid of A356 by a novel method. The bundles and clusters were embedded by infiltration of slurry into the clusters, thus leading to a uniform microstructure. The fibers were embedded homogenously into the aluminum around 576-580°C with around 46% of solid fraction. Other experiments at 615°C and 568°C which are contained 0% and 90% solid respectively were not successful for dispersion and infiltration of aluminum into bundles of Csf. The alumina fiber has been cracked by high shearing load. The morphologies and crystalline phase were evaluated by SEM and XRD. The adopted thixo-process effectively improved the adherence and distribution of Csf into Al that can be developed to produce various composites by thixomixing.

Keywords: aluminum, carbon fiber, alumina fiber, thixomixing, adhesion

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Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

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Basal metabolic rate (BMR) is widely used and an accepted measure of energy expenditure. Its principal determinant is body mass. However, this parameter is also correlated with a variety of other factors. The objective of this study is to measure BMR and compare it with the values obtained from predictive equations in adults classified according to their body mass index (BMI) values. 276 adults were included into the scope of this study. Their age, height and weight values were recorded. Five groups were designed based on their BMI values. First group (n = 85) was composed of individuals with BMI values varying between 18.5 and 24.9 kg/m². Those with BMI values varying from 25.0 to 29.9 kg/m² constituted Group 2 (n = 90). Individuals with 30.0-34.9 kg/m², 35.0-39.9 kg/m², > 40.0 kg/m² were included in Group 3 (n = 53), 4 (n = 28) and 5 (n = 20), respectively. The most commonly used equations to be compared with the measured BMR values were selected. For this purpose, the values were calculated by the use of four equations to predict BMR values, by name, introduced by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)/World Health Organization (WHO)/United Nations University (UNU), Harris and Benedict, Owen and Mifflin. Descriptive statistics, ANOVA, post-Hoc Tukey and Pearson’s correlation tests were performed by a statistical program designed for Windows (SPSS, version 16.0). p values smaller than 0.05 were accepted as statistically significant. Mean ± SD of groups 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 for measured BMR in kcal were 1440.3 ± 210.0, 1618.8 ± 268.6, 1741.1 ± 345.2, 1853.1 ± 351.2 and 2028.0 ± 412.1, respectively. Upon evaluation of the comparison of means among groups, differences were highly significant between Group 1 and each of the remaining four groups. The values were increasing from Group 2 to Group 5. However, differences between Group 2 and Group 3, Group 3 and Group 4, Group 4 and Group 5 were not statistically significant. These insignificances were lost in predictive equations proposed by Harris and Benedict, FAO/WHO/UNU and Owen. For Mifflin, the insignificance was limited only to Group 4 and Group 5. Upon evaluation of the correlations of measured BMR and the estimated values computed from prediction equations, the lowest correlations between measured BMR and estimated BMR values were observed among the individuals within normal BMI range. The highest correlations were detected in individuals with BMI values varying between 30.0 and 34.9 kg/m². Correlations between measured BMR values and BMR values calculated by FAO/WHO/UNU as well as Owen were the same and the highest. In all groups, the highest correlations were observed between BMR values calculated from Mifflin and Harris and Benedict equations using age as an additional parameter. In conclusion, the unique resemblance of the FAO/WHO/UNU and Owen equations were pointed out. However, mean values obtained from FAO/WHO/UNU were much closer to the measured BMR values. Besides, the highest correlations were found between BMR calculated from FAO/WHO/UNU and measured BMR. These findings suggested that FAO/WHO/UNU was the most reliable equation, which may be used in conditions when the measured BMR values are not available.

Keywords: adult, basal metabolic rate, fao/who/unu, obesity, prediction equations

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Authors: Salami Akeem Olanrewaju

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The transportation models or problems are primarily concerned with the optimal (best possible) way in which a product produced at different factories or plants (called supply origins) can be transported to a number of warehouses or customers (called demand destinations). The objective in a transportation problem is to fully satisfy the destination requirements within the operating production capacity constraints at the minimum possible cost. The objective of this study is to determine ways of minimizing transport cost in order to maximum profit. Data were gathered from the records of the Distribution Department of 7-Up Bottling Company Plc. Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria. The data were analyzed using SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Sciences) while applying the three methods of solving a transportation problem. The three methods produced the same results; therefore, any of the method can be adopted by the company in transporting its final products to the wholesale dealers in order to minimize total production cost.

Keywords: cost minimization, resources utilization, distribution system, allocation problem

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Authors: Aritras Roy, Rinku Mukherjee

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The current study couples a quasi-steady Vortex Lattice Method and a camber correcting technique, ‘Decambering’ for unsteady post-stall flow prediction. The wake is force-free and discrete such that the wake lattices move with the free-stream once shed from the wing. It is observed that the time-averaged unsteady coefficient of lift sees a relative drop at post-stall angles of attack in comparison to its steady counterpart for some angles of attack. Multiple solutions occur at post-stall and three different algorithms to choose solutions in these regimes show both unsteadiness and non-convergence of the iterations. The distribution of coefficient of lift on the wing span also shows sawtooth. Distribution of vorticity changes both along span and in the direction of the free-stream as the wake develops over time with distinct roll-up, which increases with time.

Keywords: post-stall, unsteady, wing, aerodynamics

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Authors: Natia Gigauri, Aleksandre Surmava

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According to observational data, experimental measurements, and numerical modeling, is assessed pollution of one of the industrial centers of Georgia, Rustavi city’s atmosphere with microaerosols. Monthly, daily and hourly changes of the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 in the city atmosphere are analyzed. It is accepted that PM2.5 concentrations are always lower than PM10 concentrations, but their change curve is the same. In addition, it has been noted that the maximum concentrations of particles in the atmosphere of Rustavi city will be reached at any part of the day, which is determined by the total impact of the traffic flow and industrial facilities. By numerical modeling has calculated the influence of background western light air and gentle and fresh breeze on the distribution of PM particles in the atmosphere. Calculations showed that background light air and gentle breeze lead to an increase the concentrations of microaerosols in the city's atmosphere, while fresh breeze contribute to the dispersion of dusty clouds. As a result, the level of dust in the city is decreasing, but the distribution area is expanding.

Keywords: pollution, modelling, PM2.5, PM10, experimental measurement

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Authors: Gülşen Akın Evingür, Önder Pekcan

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The fractal analysis is a bridge between the microstructure and macroscopic properties of gels. Fractal structure is usually provided to define the complexity of crosslinked molecules. The complexity in gel systems is described by the fractal dimension (Df). In this study, polyacrylamide- graphene oxide (GO) composite gels were prepared by free radical crosslinking copolymerization. The fractal analysis of polyacrylamide- graphene oxide (GO) composite gels were analyzed in various GO contents during gelation and were investigated by using Fluorescence Technique. The analysis was applied to estimate Df s of the composite gels. Fractal dimension of the polymer composite gels were estimated based on the power law exponent values using scaling models. In addition, here we aimed to present the geometrical distribution of GO during gelation. And we observed that as gelation proceeded GO plates first organized themselves into 3D percolation cluster with Df=2.52, then goes to diffusion limited clusters with Df =1.4 and then lines up to Von Koch curve with random interval with Df=1.14. Here, our goal is to try to interpret the low conductivity and/or broad forbidden gap of GO doped PAAm gels, by the distribution of GO in the final form of the produced gel.

Keywords: composite gels, fluorescence, fractal, scaling

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Authors: Dibu Dave Mbako, Bin Cheng

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This paper study the stress variation of the welded joints in the rib-to-deck connection structure, the influence stress of the deck plate and u-rib thickness at different positions. A Finite-element model of orthotropic steel deck structure using solid element and shell element was established in ABAQUS. Under a single wheel load, the static response was analyzed to understand the structural behaviors and examine stress distribution. A parametric study showed that the geometric parameters have a significant effect on the hot spot stress at the weld toe, but has little impact on the stress concentration factor. The increase of the thickness of the deck plate will lead to the decrease of the hot spot stress at the weld toe and the maximum deflection of the deck plate. The surface stresses of the deck plate are significantly larger than those of the rib near the joint in the 80% weld penetration into the u-rib.

Keywords: orthotropic steel bridge deck, rib-to-deck connection, hot spot stress, finite element method, stress distribution

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Authors: Mohamed Thani Ibouroi, Ali Cheha, Claudine Montgelard, Veronique Arnal, Dawiyat Massoudi, Guillelme Astruc, Said Ali Ousseni Dhurham, Aurelien Besnard

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The Livingstone's flying fox (Pteropus livingstonii) and the Comorian fruit bat (P.seychellensis comorensis) are two endemic fruit bat species among the mostly threatened animals of the Comoros archipelagos. Despite their role as important ecosystem service providers like all flying fox species as pollinators and seed dispersers, little is known about their ecologies, population genetics and structures making difficult the development of evidence-based conservation strategies. In this study, we assess spatial distribution and ecological niche of both species using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) based on the recent Ensemble of Small Models (ESMs) approach using presence-only data. Population structure and genetic diversity of the two species were assessed using both mitochondrial and microsatellite markers based on non-invasive genetic samples. Our ESMs highlight a clear niche partitioning of the two sympatric species. Livingstone’s flying fox has a very limited distribution, restricted on steep slope of natural forests at high elevation. On the contrary, the Comorian fruit bat has a relatively large geographic range spread over low elevations in farmlands and villages. Our genetic analysis shows a low genetic diversity for both fruit bats species. They also show that the Livingstone’s flying fox population of the two islands were genetically isolated while no evidence of genetic differentiation was detected for the Comorian fruit bats between islands. Our results support the idea that natural habitat loss, especially the natural forest loss and fragmentation are the important factors impacting the distribution of the Livingstone’s flying fox by limiting its foraging area and reducing its potential roosting sites. On the contrary, the Comorian fruit bats seem to be favored by human activities probably because its diets are less specialized. By this study, we concluded that the Livingstone’s flying fox species and its habitat are of high priority in term of conservation at the Comoros archipelagos scale.

Keywords: Comoros islands, ecological niche, habitat loss, population genetics, fruit bats, conservation biology

Procedia PDF Downloads 257